The Ryen Russillo Podcast - Broncos or Pats for the Best Win? Plus, the Best Coach Right Now and the Team Misery Index With Mike Sando and Ryen’s First CFB Top 12 Playoff Rankings!

Episode Date: October 6, 2025

Russillo starts by giving the Broncos the best win award for their comeback over the Eagles. Plus, he talks about the Cardinals' embarrassment and some fun with the current standings. Then, he chats w...ith The Athletic’s Mike Sando about Baker Mayfield’s rise with the Bucs, Drake Maye and the no longer slept on Patriots, who the most miserable teams are, and the best player they'd trade for Sean McVay. Next, he debuts his college football top 12 playoff rankings before closing it out with some listener-submitted Life Advice, including a question about a wholesome neighbor relationship. (0:00) Welcome to the show! (1:57) Broncos best win (8:03) Cardinals worst loss (13:26) Mike Sando stops by! / Baker and the Bucs (27:48) Drake Maye and the Patriots (31:08) Chargers-Commanders (33:45) NFL Misery Index (51:52) How many players would you trade for McVay? (1:04:03) Ryen's CFB top 12 (1:16:07) Life Advice Host: Ryen Russillo Guest: Mike Sando Producers: Kyle Crichton, Steve Ceruti, and Jonathan Frias _ _ _ Learn more and join waitlist at ScoutMotors.com The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 On today's pod, we're loaded with football, as you would expect on a Monday. I'm going to run through the best win, worst loss, as I do. Also, some numbers you're going to like. We have an award we're going to give out. And also fun with standings. Denver, getting it done, down 173 at Philadelphia. What does it mean? What does it mean for Philadelphia with Mike Sando?
Starting point is 00:00:28 We'll talk with him about Washington's incredible comeback. A little on Jeffrey Simmons, or a lot on Jeffrey Simmons, Tennessee, finally getting on the right side of things. And something else I've been thinking about for a while on the couch watching games, is it actually getting easier to score late when you need that game-winning, tying field goal? The numbers may shock you. And my first ever 2025 college football top 12, which everyone will enjoy. and life advice. This is the Ryan Marcella podcast presented by Fandul,
Starting point is 00:01:02 and if you're betting on the NFL, Fandul is the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in live and your way so you can set your own lines. The app's fast. It's easy to use,
Starting point is 00:01:14 and best of all, when you win, you get paid out instantly. Download the Fandul app or go to fandul.com slash Ryan, Ryeen to get started. The ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit RG.jshellp.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available and listen to the end of the episode for additional details.
Starting point is 00:01:30 Must be 21 plus and present in select states, 18 plus in D.C., Kentucky, and Wyoming. Gambling problem, call 100 gambler, or visit RG-G-7-7-7-7-7.com. Call 888-7-89-77- or visit CCPG. org or 4 slash chat in Connecticut. We start today's pod, recapping week five.
Starting point is 00:01:47 So five things from week five. We'll do best win. We'll do worse loss, which is not hard. We'll give out an award. We'll have some fun with the numbers. Take a look at fun withstandings as well. And a good quote. All right.
Starting point is 00:01:56 Best win. You can make an argument for New England at Buffalo, getting that one, a Sunday night football, the AFCE stuff, which just has been dominated by Buffalo here, and the Drake May kind of coming out national party. And maybe even on this podcast, as I admitted, I don't watch a ton of New England. I was aware of what he was doing. But that was so much fun. We'll spend some more time on that, maybe with Sandow, who's going to join us later in the show. I'm going with Denver's win at Philadelphia for a bunch of different reasons.
Starting point is 00:02:21 Let's run through them. They were down 17-3 entering the fourth quarter. Not a great spot to be in against the defending champs. If you look at the Broncos franchise history, when entering down, entering the fourth quarter down 14 or more points on the road, they had been as a franchise 1 and 112. One win, 112 losses. I'm not a huge Bo Nix guy, but he got it done yesterday. Now, am I a little harsh on Nix because of, you know, there's that number out there, how he basically just doesn't get it done against the teams that are 500? or better. Well, that's not really that alarming, considering we're talking about a rookie.
Starting point is 00:02:59 And for what he did as a rookie in this team getting to the playoffs, even though there's other elements out there, defense. And, you know, some of the guys they have are just absolute studs. That's just a win. It's a win across the board to have Bo Necks as a rookie, get your team into the playoffs. So I'm probably being a little harsh on that. He also, in this game on throws that were 10 or more air yard throws. He started on those throws 1 at 8. So I was kind of like, you know, this is kind of some of the stuff with him. There's also a stat they showed on the Sunday night football broadcast that I thought was really interesting since the start of 24. So it's that rookie class with all these quarterbacks in it going into last night's game.
Starting point is 00:03:38 So it carry over the first month plus of this 25 NFL season. The quarterbacks are the most scrambles. Here's the list. Jaden Daniels at 85, which is an outrageous number. Number two over that same time frame as Mahomes was 60. So that means Jaden's that many more. And look, he completely turned around in that Chargers game yesterday, and he'd missed a couple games of the injury at McCorn out.
Starting point is 00:04:01 So I thought that was a huge win by the commanders as well. Third in the list, Drake May, fourth in the list, Bonix, fifth on the list, Josh Allen. So it's a crazy list because you have two of the three best quarterbacks doing it in the league right now. I'd include Lamar in that group. And who knows? Maybe we have to reassess some of that stuff with Baker. But then you have the three rookies from last year, where you're like look what do we say in this podcast all the time it's cool that you can do it
Starting point is 00:04:30 but if your default when you're comfortable is i'm just going to run um but again it's odd in comparing it to allen and mohams who are you know maybe the first two guys you would take if you could pick a quarterback to start your franchise with right now so that was just a weird number i think i think the bone nick's conversation for me is pretty simple um he's not He feels like a high floor QB, which may be me entirely missing the point. It may be me being dismissive of, well, what does that mean? He's not going to make a ton of mistakes. And if we play a good defense, we have a chance to win every single game.
Starting point is 00:05:07 Like, that seems pretty good. Like, if you think about being described as high floor, I don't know if it's a compliment. I don't think I'd want to be introduced that way and be like, hey, this is Ryan. He's kind of like a high floor guy, which just immediately feels like a negative. Like, I'd want maybe my dentist to be a high floor guy, a mechanic for a woman in an arranged marriage. And somebody said, look, he's not going to be the most fun you've ever had, but he's a high floor guy. He's got a ton of goats. You know, so I, there's certain things that I think high floor is a compliment, even though I wouldn't want to be described that way.
Starting point is 00:05:46 And I don't think it's a compliment when you're talking about quarterbacks. But they beat the bad teams. There are some ironic parallels between kind of the high floor discussion we have about quarterbacks where it's this great defense. Usually you have some kind of running game. Philadelphia had that last year. And again, the irony being that the parallels between a Bo Nix and a Jalen Hurts and all the different Hearst conversations that I'm not going to do again on the pod today.
Starting point is 00:06:12 But in that fourth quarter, when they're having this comeback, Knicks is 9 to 10. It wasn't like they were doing it all on the ground, even though Dobbins has been a real boost for them. It wasn't just about the defense, even though the defense was incredible. He hit Sutton on a third and 15 for 34 yards that, I mean, look, I don't think there are quarterbacks playing the NFL
Starting point is 00:06:30 that are never going to make that throw, but, you know, that was one of those down in distances where I was like, all right, what's he got here? And Sutton, who probably did his bed as well of a job as the way I should phrase it against Mitchell as anybody in that wide receiver cornerback matchup. So to be able to come back in this one, and by the way, hit the two-pointer where you're like, man, they're going for two in this spot.
Starting point is 00:06:53 And Peyton had said after the game, like, hey, we came here to win the game. And I know it sounds like a really good quote, but I love the play call because it was quit. It's Troy Franklin, just one step in. You're not going to have Knicks back there. Like some of these two-point conversions or the two-yard-out, whatever goal to go play that you have, where sometimes, like, the better quarterbacks can hang and, extend the play, not necessarily by running around, but they're going to be looking at different things. Then I think there's some quarterbacks, like when that first read is gone, they're just
Starting point is 00:07:21 toast. And then this play in particular, it's like we're not even giving Bo Nix the opportunity to freelance. Now, granted, the corner could have jumped the route instead of Franklin and not have the angle, then he's got to go to some other second, third read on it. But I just love that play call because it was so quick, it was so decisive. It was going to take kind of any of the thinking out of it for a quarterback in that spot. And then again, on the defensive side, Benito, who's just a terror in the defensive player of the year conversation, two and a half sacks all over the place. They stopped Philadelphia. I saw six total sacks, by the way, for Denver. I saw it also at seven. Who cares? But they stopped them on six straight third downs in this game as well.
Starting point is 00:07:58 So considering everything going into that game, down 17.3, that's the best win of the entire week. Worst loss, no contest. Arizona's up 213 on the worst team in the NFL. They're at home. every single time I look up a Titan stat when it's like 25th in the league, I'm pleasantly surprised. I'm like, oh, okay, it's not the worst. Like they are in third down, where they're the
Starting point is 00:08:22 worst in the NFL. They went five and 15 yesterday. That's actually good for them. That's above what their season total is. They're under 30% I think on the season. So look, at one point, too, with Cam Ward, I'm watching this going, I don't even think he has a chance.
Starting point is 00:08:38 Guys are dropping balls all over the place. not telling you, he was necessarily great, but it actually got me to start thinking, like, is there a segment somewhere, maybe not on a Monday, where you just look at Tennessee and go, you weren't even ready for a quarterback. And considering where Cam ranked as a prospect in comparison to other top 10 picks at that position, a lot of people, draft evaluators, had Cam were behind all sorts of guys. But again, this isn't necessarily on him. I haven't watched him this year thinking like he's the main problem. He's just a rookie without any support whatsoever unless the other team is going to gift wrap it to you. So fourth quarter, it's 216.
Starting point is 00:09:18 Mercado, the running back for Arizona, breaks it 72 yards, sort of, and once again, pulls it to Sean Jackson, fumbles it right before the goal line. It looked at first like the defensive player got in there, but he didn't even touch the football. This is like one of the closest ones I've ever seen. And you can just think of the review people going through it back at, HQ, talking with the officials on the field. I just wonder if they think it's even a tie. And they're just like, fuck this guy. Not this guy in particular, but any time it happens.
Starting point is 00:09:52 Adonai Mitchell for the Colts had one. He was disastrous, but I think he actually had lost the ball more than, and he wasn't securing it. I don't know if it was necessarily a celebration, but that led, it was a major factor in that Colts lost the rim. And you can go on TV and scream and yell and say it has to stop happening. it's not going to stop happening. For whatever reason, there's just dudes that think this is cool
Starting point is 00:10:14 and it never stops. Gannon was losing his mind on the sideline for this one. So it also is fitting to give the award, the Mike Vic jersey with a Pitbull photo shoot award for worst decision of the week. We are giving that to Mercado because it would have been 286 and then it isn't. Credit to Pitts, or excuse me, not Pittsburgh, we're not going to care about them.
Starting point is 00:10:40 Tennessee still had to go 80 yards after that play. Then they had the rare interception, fumbled interception, fumble recovery in the end zone for a touchdown. And then they had to go 71 yards and 11 plays and 153 to hit the game-winning field goal. So Tennessee still had to do all of those things. Granted, the middle play in there is just absurd. But the long drive after the fumble, the long drive to set up the game-winning field goal. So Tennessee had to do those things on the road in that spot
Starting point is 00:11:08 and force Arizona to punt to get the ball back. So there you go. All right, some numbers. Jackson Dart has the highest scramble rate of any quarterback. That's a starter. Yes, there are guys that, and I'm just talking about, I just look at it and go, that guy's not a starter. That guy's not a starter.
Starting point is 00:11:27 It's like average depth of target, that number that I love. The guys that are like top nine are all guys that don't even really play. So there you go. By the way, shout out Spencer Rattler. It finally happened. The guy has been, is bawling aggressive, probably, but he's been fighting his ass off out there for one of the worst teams in the NFL. So I was thrilled to see that.
Starting point is 00:11:48 You don't see a team like the Giants turn it over five straight possessions very often. They did just that. Javante Williams. Did you know that he's third in the NFL in rushing? Dallas Cowboys running back. Blowout win yesterday. Dallas doesn't necessarily run the ball a ton because of the scores of the games that they've been in. They've been behind in three or five.
Starting point is 00:12:11 And then one of the other games is that absurd game like Russell Wilson will at least have that game with that weird game against the Giants, the overtime winner. So Dallas doesn't run at a ton because what the game dictates them doing, but they're actually really good in yards per carry. They're fourth in the NFL. They're actually also the number one yardage offense in the NFL, the number four in points. And why are they not better? Because they're last and points per game allowed in the NFL. Let's have some fun with standings. The AFC's number one seed as of today, the Indianapolis Colts.
Starting point is 00:12:48 Out of the playoffs as of this morning, we'll see what happens tonight, Kansas City. The best team in the NFL? Maybe the best team in the NFL. Now this Packers love is kind of falling off a little bit in Philadelphia. it loses one at home. Detroit, they would be a four seed in the NFC. The Niners would be a two seed even coming off all that incredible win against the Rams there. And we're going to end on this quote. We saw it last night and Sunday night football. Quote, my maturation process is second to none. Stefan Diggs.
Starting point is 00:13:27 Save when you fuel up for your next road trip. Get up to seven cents per leader in value every time you fill up at Petro Canada. $0.3 per liter in instant savings plus 20% more points when you link an eligible RBC card to your Petro points. Find out more at RBC.com slash Petro-dash Canada. Conditions apply. We get them multiple times a season. It feels like even more so right now. Mike Sando, the Athletic, has picked six column Monday mornings, must read for NFL fans. So we'll go through some notes from that. So I didn't spend a ton of time on Tampa's incredible shoot out there with Seattle.
Starting point is 00:13:57 Going from Tampa up to Seattle, and granted, look, there's no Mike Evans for Tampa. Seattle's down, some defensive players. It's back and forth. So I still think there's some, like, good stuff you could say about Seattle's offense and all of this. But it feels like every Tampa week is another test of, like, where is Baker and where are they in the NFC race? The defensive numbers are actually worse than they were last year on the season
Starting point is 00:14:24 compared to five weeks in now. So that might be part of it. But to win that kind of game, win it in the fashion they did, I guess whether it's you or just people in the league that you talk to about who this team is, I think that's probably the best place to start because that win was awesome. It is, and I feel like, you know, going into the year, everybody that I talked to sort of felt like they were in the second tier of NFC teams that's going to have a high floor, but isn't going to go as far.
Starting point is 00:14:51 But I think you have to give them a little bit more credit than that. Now, I still think Detroit looks great and probably, you know, would be favored. But at a certain point, I mean, you know, why not Tampa Bay, you know, at least to me advancing the championship game. I think they can do that in the NFC because I don't necessarily trust all the other teams either. We'll see what it looks like down the stretch is their fundamental, you know, will the Eagles get it together to an extent where they're running the ball and clicking? Because if they do, I think that's probably a tougher team. But why not Tampa Bay, given the state of the conference right now? do you think like Jason light won bring in Baker and by the way like you look at Baker's
Starting point is 00:15:37 number first year okay hey you might have a starter we'll see not a ton of money even better the second year and now he's even better than he was last year this season he's also I was looking at average salaries right now Baker's the 19th highest pay QB which is still like north of 30 million which just speaks to what the market is for quarterbacks here so I'm not calling it a blueprint thing here but I do think there's an unbelievable irony in that post Brady, one of the supposed greatest minds that we've ever had in the NFL, which I think is like maybe I'm being a little too UNCish about Belichick, but one of the single greatest minds that we've seen in the history of the NFL would
Starting point is 00:16:15 have no plan post Brady to like prove some point. And yet Tampa has an incredible post Brady plan. I mean, do you think they thought it would work out this way? Is this something about these retread quarterbacks now working out where the scouting department is going, hey, we still, we loved this guy coming out. So I wonder what went into that. I don't, you know, and I visit Tampa Bay every, you know, regularly. I'm trying to remember back to then. I don't feel like that they, I feel like they had some hope and optimism, but I don't think that they felt it was going to be this good. You know, nobody could have seen that it would be this good. I watch Cleveland every week thinking, my gosh, they had this guy, you know, and they can't get anything going offensively,
Starting point is 00:17:04 12 straight games of bad offense for them statistically. So I think it's a great story. I think there is a, you know, I think like Seattle's a little bit more like this too and moving on from Wilson and moving on from Gino Smith, like kind of, you know, not overvaluing. maybe valuing correctly. I think even the bucks have done a great job of extending his contract in ways that aren't completely over the top either based on the fact that he's producing
Starting point is 00:17:40 as well as anybody in the league. Yeah, and if he finished maybe, like if they had a redo his deal after this year off of these numbers, then maybe you're looking at it is not its bargain. But they just did it after last year, right? They just did a deal.
Starting point is 00:17:54 Yeah, yeah. So I'm just saying, like, if you had to, if he puts together this kind of season, like end to end, and maybe they play in the NSE championship game. It's like, hey, now I'm a $50 million guy. And then that changed. But it's very clear that Tampa, whether it's taking Ibuka and going, we don't care. Like, we're not going to care about what our supposed needs. Well, granted, they needed Baker. They needed any kind of quarterback post Brady here. But I just think it's an incredible story. And I think that travel, the whole thing, man.
Starting point is 00:18:20 It just makes me want to like, go ahead. Yeah. There's a buck's analysis to be done here. Maybe I need to do this because if you look at what their record was when Jason Light was a GM from whatever, 2014 to before they got Brady, it's one of the worst records in the league. I don't even think Jason Light has a winning record. Yeah, it's close, right? But since they got Brady, like, and then Mayfield, I mean, it's like they're one of the best run organizations in the league, it seems like. And, and maybe, I mean, maybe they were well run the whole time and they just finally had quarterbacks. And I think Baker's value, too, goes beyond the stats. He infuses that team with energy and fight and wouldn't you love to play for him?
Starting point is 00:19:12 It's the way he plays and leaves it on the line every day. Just his attitude, like the way he just sort of gets it to me. He's an invigorating player. But there's something, it's just so interesting to me. that you could have said when they got Brady. Yeah, it's just Brady. You know, you could almost, hey, they lucked into Brady. They wanted to go there.
Starting point is 00:19:31 Good for them. No. Their offense is better since Brady left. They have a good line. They have good receivers. They find them. They have a good back who's, you know, I think, you know, is injured. But they've done this across three offensive coordinators.
Starting point is 00:19:50 I don't think we can, I mean, Baker's a huge part of it. But to me, they're a good. good organization that had a really bad record under the same GM like 10 years ago and seven, eight years ago. That's interesting to me. You're right. Light is still actually seven games under 500. Yeah, and I think he does a great job. I mean, I think they've been a team that's underappreciated. This is going to be five straight division titles. Maybe I know it's the South, but like they're a good team. They're not a fluky team. Maybe Light is like the GM version of Baker Mayfield, except that Tampa stayed with him in Cleveland,
Starting point is 00:20:25 didn't. So it's amazing. Yeah. So much goes into organizationally, you know, and all the GMs aren't operating with the same deck either. So, I don't know, getting Brady changed that organization and now those guys can operate at a higher level in the front office. I don't think Jason Light suddenly got smart in the last five years. But it's a fascinating place to me to have that. Such a turnaround to where They're kind of a model now.
Starting point is 00:20:53 And before Brady, people would have, you know, said that, not said that. But it's a lot of the same people in leadership. Okay, let's pivot that then to Seattle's decision. Because even though with the loss, like, here's a number for you. If you go QBR right now in the NFL, number one is Daniel Jones. Number two is Sam Darnold. Number eight is Baker. So three of the top eight guys all coming from this same kind of like Wikipedia entry.
Starting point is 00:21:17 Whoever's doing it. but when the Seahawks passed on Gino like I'll admit I find they gave in on Gino a little bit where I was like you know what this guy's like a lot better than some of the guys that we have hope for every single weekend and the Vegas part right right like that's kind of what the analysis I'm there with you yeah I was with you too I thought he was undervalued and quarterback tears every year all that he's a he gets a three every year no matter what he does it's been a disaster so far Vegas but I want to focus on the Darnold part of this because I'm thinking Donald away from O'Connell, and they gave him a deal that was kind of like,
Starting point is 00:21:53 you're a starter, but, you know, we're not going to go crazy on this whole thing. And now we're looking at the Seattle offense that we would think would be, you know, of both sides of the football. Granted, the injuries and everything yesterday, so making excuses a bit. But I thought in your pick six, you were pointing out, it was like, you figure McDonald's going to, like, he's going to write the ship there once he has the full unit back. But this Darnold Gamble, which I think any. fair NFL mind would go, are you really making the right choice here? This looks like a complete
Starting point is 00:22:23 win despite, you know, again, they're probably feeling a little gloomy after such a tough loss yesterday. I, Jean Schneider's got some, you know, got some enterprising risk taking in him too. Like, think of the third round pick on Russell Wilson when, you know, nobody thought he was a guy and then they start him in the first year, you know, and he becomes, you know, what he became. when people didn't no one thought that and he saw that and so to me to go on from him to gino smith and then him overachieve and they get the best of gino the best of gino's career is going to have been with seattle and now you not only uh get rid of him and bring in durnal but remember they get rid of dk metcalf people would have said he was their most talented physically receiver
Starting point is 00:23:12 uh they move on from tyler locket who's kind of been an automatic guy for them for 10 years and They draft a few guys. They, you know, make some moves on their offensive line. They got a good rookie, Grace Abel, in their guard. But, and now, Donald is doing this. Donald is better than he was with the Vikings. I mean, last week, I did a piece that was, I've really found it interesting on just sort of the conundrum that Minnesota was in.
Starting point is 00:23:38 And last year, when Donald was playing well, I got on a Zoom with the coach, and we watched Donald. And the coach was like, eh, he's doing fine. You know, there's two or three really good throws in here. but for the most part, he's just kind of mid, and they have a good team around him. We watched Donald coming into this game this year, and the coach couldn't believe it.
Starting point is 00:23:54 He's like, this guy's playing like a tier one quarterback, and you have to say he did that yesterday. I know he had the late interception that would bounce off a guy's helmet when he was trying to dirt the ball, but this guy's been great end of games for the most part, really nuanced play at the position, mature play, like ball placement away from defenders
Starting point is 00:24:16 that are going to tag his guys. I mean, he just looks, none of the spasticness that we saw with the Jets or just even some freneticness with the Vikings where it was, ah, it's too fast, haven't seen that from him. I spent a lot of time on Denver's win on the Denver side of things. You broke down the Philly side of things this morning, and I did think about it a little bit. It's like, okay, so if you have Sartan on A.J. Brown, then, you know, you can't expect a ton there. Even the PI, I was like, shocked. It's like he lost a battle. but then you have Devante Smith
Starting point is 00:24:48 absolutely go off and it did cross my mind it was like was all the chatter this week about the lack of targets and that hurts you know there's just limitations he was passing game did that seep into their mind did that get into the play calling it's like hey we can use one of our weapons and actually
Starting point is 00:25:04 light it up but there's still so many I don't think that's the reason they lost there's still so many issues with this team that was 4 and 0 and 4 in 1 I still give them the benefit of doubt it's an incredible win by Denver but there are some drop-off numbers from 24 to 25 that you point out that feel like there's massive drop-offs in some of this stuff.
Starting point is 00:25:25 Yeah, it's strange to me. I think that their offensive line has just been in the engine for them. You know, it's been great. I don't know if it's as great right now. I don't think that it is. And so does everything flow from that? Because, you know, there's always been respect for Jalen Hertz, but not in the way that you carry your team that,
Starting point is 00:25:45 when you have a good team, he's a great, you know, he's a great fit for that. So does that fall off now with the offensive line not being as good? Do they just start slow? I think last year they, you know, I ran a comparison of their first five games last year to this year. And while it's worse this year, it wasn't great. That's the first five last year. They really improved as the season went along. I think they were two and two last year to start the year, maybe three and two at this point.
Starting point is 00:26:09 So I give them the fact that it could take time for it to come together and hit stride. I'm just a little concerned. To me, Sequin Barclay is too good to be averaging three yards of carrier, whatever it is, three and a half. That, to me, would indicate that there's some blocking and line issues for them. And my concern is that, you know, maybe that line has peaked with Lane Johnson, Landon Dickerson, and some of these guys that are battling through some things right now. You know, and is that an issue for them that could, you know,
Starting point is 00:26:42 possibly not get a lot better as the season goes along yeah it's one thing like when dickerson is in and out and you go okay well i don't have a ton of sympathy for you and then there was a game earlier where it's like hey lane johnson's feeling something it's like okay but if you have the best offensive line but then when it turns into lanes not all the way there dickerson's barely playing and then even my lot of was like after the game like hint there was a weird quote in there too of just how his body felt and then you have sayquan the sayquan debates like is he waiting for the big play and not taking what's in front of them the rest of time. You're right. Three point two yards per carryover guy that looked like he was in the conversation for MVP at running back,
Starting point is 00:27:19 which seems like it's never going to happen again. But it just defaults back to personnel for me. I think like it does. And you know, remember, you know, I thought they did a great job last year in the first year without Jason Kelsey. But that's another, you know, let's just say if Dickerson was in another lineup and Lane Johnson's banged up, but you still have a prime Kelsey, right? that maybe that's enough but you know now they don't have a prime kelsey the center's fine but you know they may just be a they just may not be as elite up front across the board and playing as elite um you know and that could have a major impact on the rest of their pieces because i do think berkeley has had struggles sometimes with numbers in the past with a bad offensive line
Starting point is 00:28:01 and then been absolutely amazing when it's blocked up right Drake May coming out party, the Sunday night game, the bills lose the turnover battle for the first time after a franchise, excuse me, an NFL record, 26 straight games. Did a great job delivering that, but I think everybody gets the point. I'm, I don't know how many years I'll think about his two-minute warning throw when Dayquan Jones 92 is pulling him down by the shoulder pads. And I can't, one is I can't believe he was able to stiff arm him off of him enough to keep his knee off the ground. And then two, with your body being contorted like that, with
Starting point is 00:28:38 320 pounds hanging off of your left side, deliver an accurate throw there. And so it actually got me thinking about like the Ryan Poles comments that leaked about May and the assessment. And I'm a Caleb guy, so I still think we'll see. We'll see if Paul's got it right. But, you know, the May story was the junior year versus the senior year. Like, what did you want to put stock into with him missing a ton of personnel at UNC the last year, which UNC is not technically, I guess, allowed to acknowledge if that was a real tweet that we saw today by a directive from Belichick, do not acknowledge Rick May and the Patriots. I don't know, whatever. But what kind of conversations had you had about May going into the year? And then, you know, as he has statistically put up some
Starting point is 00:29:27 stuff here that's been really, really special. But now that everybody was watching him last night, even with the turnovers from Buffalo. That was a pretty gutsy performance for a team that still isn't that talented. It was pretty good. So full confession here, when I'm writing the pick six, I'm not watching that Sunday game as close as I would like to because I'm on the deadline type of thing. So I had it on, wasn't overly studying it.
Starting point is 00:29:48 And obviously haven't talked to a lot of people off of that game. Before that, though, I feel like the talk of the Patriots has been a little bit dismissive in terms of they're really not very good. Yeah, May's been fine, but the people that are saying he's arrived, you know, look at who they played. I felt it was a little bit diminished. So I will be interested to see, you know, if that changes it all off of this game. Or I think it definitely, I felt like there's been a gap between the public and certainly Patriots sort of fan enthusiasm and overall league enthusiasm, not that people are down on it, but I think people just don't think that the Patriots are very good. So three and two.
Starting point is 00:30:30 That's their best record. You know, I think that's their best record in the first five games in a year for a while. Since 19. Going back, maybe since Brady was there. So that's something. And I think this is a great win. Even though I felt like the Bucks or the Bills, I think the Bills two weeks in a row just haven't had a lot of juice,
Starting point is 00:30:49 Saint game. And this one to me just felt underwhelming from their standpoint. So it only can be positive for Drake May and the Patriots to win that game. I think opinions in the league take time to change. That's why we do the quarterback tiers every year and not every week or every month. But to me, that was a super positive development for them, first year with Rabel, second year with May. And I kind of like what I see from them.
Starting point is 00:31:20 So you could argue, hey, Denver's win, New England's win, the best wins. Do you think the most important win might have been the commanders? think about it like i can set it up they're down 10 nothing jaden's one of three seven yards in the first quarter he'd missed a couple games of injuries mccloren's out uh noel brown's out and you know i'm i'm watching that game kind of like all right look the charges will probably win this i still really like him it was kind of a weird game against a giants last week the herbert pressure thing that i know you've been on and then we've talked about here on this pod but like for them to turn it around they get the fumble they drive then there was the punt return touchdown by lad
Starting point is 00:31:58 would have made it, I think, 17-3, and then it's roughing the punter. And all these things just kind of turned on a dime in this game. And it finally felt like Jaden looked like Jaden again, is I'm sure some commander's fans are wondering, like, is there going to be some sort of sophomore slump who looked like the best story in the NFL last year? I agree. They have been invisible to me, be without him. I was thinking of this yesterday.
Starting point is 00:32:21 Remember last year it was like, hey, for the first X drives of a season, this is the highest touchdown rateers, you know, things like that. the history of the game. There was stuff they were so amazing out of the gate. And I just felt like, well, he's not really playing. They've been invisible to me. So I do think that's a huge win for them because if you look at their schedule coming up, Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, Seattle, Detroit, you know, those are, they're going to
Starting point is 00:32:46 have to be decent for some of those games. They're going to have to play teams to put some points on the board probably. So, yeah, maybe we can rediscover Washington. It has felt like something's been a missed. You know, they're the oldest team in the league, even though they have this. young quarterback. And so that's always been... He's like the oldest young quarterback, though, too. He is. He's totally mature. He's like a 30-year-old, 23-year-old or whatever. He's 24. No, I think he's like 25, 26. Is he? Is he? Jaden Daniels 25? 26? Yeah, let me look it up here
Starting point is 00:33:14 again. I don't know if I was rounding up on like a birthday. What? He turns 25 in December. 25 in December. All right. So it was the 20. So I gave me a year. My bad. I can say if he's 26, man, I missed that, but I just, you know, I think our concern for him last year, we saw it a little bit when he got banged up was just, hey, you know, a little bit, I don't know, slight a frame, but some guys are sturdier and just the playing style. Is he going to be there every week? So, you know, that's raised its head a little bit this year already. Now, I don't know that, you know, that's going to tell us anything long term that he's had, you know, been banged up a little bit this year. But that's kind of the thing that I wanted to see off last year, more
Starting point is 00:33:54 than just even the stats being great again, just go through the whole years of starter and be, you know, consistently able to win with. Let's focus on the misery index. Explain what you did this morning as one bigger part of your piece. Yeah, I think I looked at the 10 teams with the worst record in the league. And the Raiders really got me thinking on it because like a lot of people, we thought, hey, Pete Carroll goes in there. That's an upgrade from Antonio Pierce. Gino Smith goes in there. That's a big upgrade from Aidan O'Connell, who's probably a number three quarterback, just statistically off of the quarterback, if you use like QBR and ESPN is, is a good gauge. They should have, they should just get three more wins just from having Gino, okay?
Starting point is 00:34:37 Just from having what Gino would do normally compared to what Aiden O'Connell would do. So for them to be down, whatever 30, or they down 37 points, they got outscored 40 to nothing in the second and third quarters yesterday. So I'm watching that with Pete Carroll, who I have a lot of admiration for, you know, did a great job. in Seattle and you're you're losing 40 to nothing to indie over two quarters in the middle of the game and gino smith looks like he can't play anymore that's hard to do it really is like to be outscored 40 in two quarters i think they scored did they scored touchdowns on five or six drives in a row five drives in a row something like that maybe it was five or six drives in a row unbelievable so
Starting point is 00:35:17 then i was looking you know i thought the arizona lost too they've lost three in a row now by I think they were tied or leading in the final five seconds. You know, you look at, you're numb to Cleveland losing. But the Giants lost, double figures at the Saints. I just felt, I felt miserable for some of these teams and fan bases. Like the Giants, you got dart in there. All right, let's see how it goes. You get a win.
Starting point is 00:35:40 And then you're losing, I think they turned it over on Five Street. You lose double digits to the Saints. So I just felt some misery in the league yesterday for some of these teams that you're hoping with darts you're hoping with carol you know there's real passionate fan bases around these teams and you're looking at this garbage who else did you put in this group uh so i had uh i had tennessee in there i had uh even though they won i think they deserve it i put them in a i put carolina in there is just a complete up and down team i think i had uh you had the jets on my own column.
Starting point is 00:36:19 The Jets are on five. Because, I mean, the whole point of Aaron Glenn coming in and with this defensive personnel, there's like a lot of guys on this team I like, and they're terrible on defense. Absolutely. That was one of the themes of this, is Aaron Glenn and Pete Carroll, two guys who want to come in and win with defense, run game, veteran quarterback, protect the ball, and they're not able to do the things that they really want to do. I do give the Jets some allowance in that, hey, they played Aaron Rogers.
Starting point is 00:36:46 they played Josh Allen. They played Baker Mayfield, who's now in that group, I guess. And they've played DAC, Prescott, who's playing as well as anybody in the league. And even Tua, for the dolphins on any given week, you know, can do some decent things offensively. So they've played better quarterbacks than some of these other teams in the Misery Index have played. But still, you know, giving up 34, 30, 29, 27, 37 when you have a defensive head coach. One thing I didn't really write about in there because it is early, but it came to my mind was you know, I think Aaron Glenn was hired off of the fact that he comes from this great Detroit program with Dan Campbell.
Starting point is 00:37:23 I don't think he was hired because he had great defenses. Do you see that? Like if you look at the, I think they had better defenses that got to be okay in Detroit, but played in a really a great friendly framework with that great offensive line and the offense putting up a bunch of points. And so, you know, you have a little bit kind of like maybe Steve Spagnolo has, has had over the years in Kansas City, you have the cushion of the quarterback who's going to win the games or the offense that's going to win the games.
Starting point is 00:37:53 So I think it remains to be seen what Aaron Glenn is going to do just from a pure defensive scheming or defensive standpoint. I think we all know what he's going to try to do from a culture standpoint, and he may be able to do that. But I think the culture stuff takes time. Pete Carroll was seven and nine twice. Look at what Dan Campbell was in putting that culture. like 4 and 19, right? Something like that. So that's something that maybe I'm learning from
Starting point is 00:38:21 this season is when you're, when you're talking about somebody coming in and you're, they're hanging their hat on the cultural change. Now, Vrabel's a little bit better now at three and two. But sometimes that maybe does that cultural change, you still got to have player change, right? Yeah. And so, so maybe the betting on the cultural change is you got to really stick with that guy for a long time maybe because it's going to take a while sometimes yeah nobody wants to start the press conference meeting like we have like our 53 we get a bunch of average guys but they care about the right things pete carroll hit on two home run drafts with john schneider you know to get uh you know to to get cam chancer earl thomas in one draft bobby wagner russell wilson and
Starting point is 00:39:05 another and in the draft in between that they got richard sherman in the fifth round you know so look at detroit's culture yeah look who they drafted look what they've done right they put together a really good team and then that cultural stuff puts it over the top so when you're coming into effect culture you need players to do that for you and maybe what we're seeing here is that the jets and the uh raiders don't have enough of those players Miami's in this index as well uh that was that was an i don't know how many people were watching it but Bryce has a really bad pick in the beginning of the game they're down 10-0 and it was so much fun to watch carolina turned around in this game and the big throws he had
Starting point is 00:39:46 and Leggett getting going again and Tetaroa getting going and Dowdell at running back just absolutely lightening it up and yet it's still a game and I'm watching that last position from Miami. They've given up the
Starting point is 00:40:02 touchdown they've got three plays they've got two minutes to go and third and ten I was like are we going to see a two interception and instead we saw sack much like we saw a sack on the fourth down against New England, all right? These huge, huge plays late in the game.
Starting point is 00:40:21 And it was, the sack was so bad that they actually had a punt on fourth and 17. They were backed up to their own 15. There's one 10 left. I mean, there's an argument to be like, hey, you can't actually punt it to these guys. And four plays later the game. Three timeouts left, but yes, yeah. Yeah, three timeouts left, but I mean, I don't know. I mean, maybe that maybe it's a two-a-thing.
Starting point is 00:40:45 It's obviously with Tyreek being out. But I thought you had made a really good point. Like, hey, this team was already resetting its own expectations based on what they did this offseason. It has felt a little dead man walking there, hasn't it? Just like, hey, they fired their gun and now they're out of bullets. And so the question is just going to be, can they hold it together enough that you want to not get a new gun, you know? And I think it's been a interesting. situation in Miami because
Starting point is 00:41:14 Mike McDaniel was hired to take over from Brian Flores, and they needed a nice guy. They needed that for their team. They needed to be loved up. But I think over time, it's hard to go from loving up your team to controlling your team and being the tough guy later. That's hard to do. So I think McDaniel's
Starting point is 00:41:33 been in a tough spot. Obviously, his personality is a little bit different anyway. And then last year, they changed more of their defense than I realized until I started looking at it early in the season. Their defense is bad. They were a top, I think, 11 defense last year, and they're a bottom two defense right now. And so that shifts at all. Now you take away Tyree Kill, which gives you some explosiveness on a fear factor in offense.
Starting point is 00:41:55 And I think that they're going to, you know, they could be in some of these types of games against bad teams where they can't, in the end, you're up 17 to nothing. I think Carolina had lost 38 in a row when trailing by that much in a game. And now that streak is broken because they played Miami in that defense. And any time there's a comeback like that, you know, the other defense didn't hold you. I think that's a big component of this that gets overlooked because we focus so much on Tua. And obviously he has limitations and that shows up in some of those big moments. It's so bad for Miami that, you know, the NFL will try at times to have like an NBA type buzz with the trade deadline. And even if the NBA trade deadline is massively disappointing like it has been, you know, certain years, it's still so much fun to talk about.
Starting point is 00:42:40 And I can see, like, the NFL, not that I don't think there's some, like, mandate, but, like, that people click on that stuff. If you were to write the 10, I talked to 15 people in a league, here are the 10 names, and you could go over 10, and it wouldn't matter. The people of the athletic would be thrilled for you doing it. But whenever I click on one of those, it's just so underwhelming, like Jalen Phillips of the Dolphins, it's like he could be somebody on the move. I'll tell you a story about, I'll tell you a funny story about that. done those stories before one year i was doing the story a few years ago and i said hey uh i got uh i had you know five trades or 10 trades that would be interesting and i just randomly called a front office guy from a team and i said uh hey can i just run these past yeah you know maybe you have an
Starting point is 00:43:28 idea and he goes hey can you not include this one because if if that one's actually going to go down here soon, but if it's, I think if it, if you write it, it's going to spook it and it may not happen. And I was like, ah, shoot, why did I call you? And I respectfully didn't run it because I didn't, you know, I can have other ones in there. And it happened. And I'm like, you know, the one time I would have had the trade right, I screwed myself over by checking, you know, hey, is this legitimate enough? So I'm kind of out of that market of doing those straight. Maybe I'll do another one this year, but I was like, dang it. Was this guy one of your best QB tier voters or something? And you're just like, I got to keep the
Starting point is 00:44:14 relationship. 50 voters every. No, there's just, oh, no, it's just. Well, it had to be a relationship thing for you to go. Sure, it's a relationship thing. Yes. So exactly. Like, look, if, yeah, yeah, I mean, but you could actually affect the news with something. You could affect the news with something. So it would actually, could actually make it not happen. Yeah, so there's some of that involved. I could do 10 other ones. And who knows, maybe it wouldn't have happened. I think I ended up hinting or something, you know, writing around it in some way to have myself covered a little bit. But I always laugh at that because they're so hard to get, you know, because I'm not really in the, I'm in the more of the analysis business. I'm not in the, hey, call and get the find out what that trade is.
Starting point is 00:44:57 And then you see this happen all the time. No one reports it until it's actually going to happen like five minutes before, right? That's how these things. work because they'll fall apart otherwise sometimes so um i just found that funny yeah and the reason i'm also asking is there any way we can get geoffrey simmons out of tennessee is there any like he was a menace yesterday and i'm not even talking about the pressures or the hits on kaila murray he had one play where he got double team right and he was out of the hole that the running back was running through, he reached out with one arm, and you would have thought the running back ran into, like, it was like the wall was CGIed out or it was some sort of like video as a
Starting point is 00:45:41 I mean, it just was an absolute stupid play and display of strength. And I was looking at the contract because I was like, is this guy? Because, you know, look, they reported it during the game. They're like, he's on to turmeric. Dude, I will inject turmeric into my eyeballs if that was the result because it. Can you imagine if it was that simple? I think it might be. like there seems to be a refocus because when when shiel and i were doing like our top five guys these position i'm like when he is right though and he plays with such anger right that i'm like i really feel like i need to still put him on this list even if it seems like there's a little talk of him potentially regressing and the way he has played this year is really one of the very
Starting point is 00:46:23 few bright spots for the titans and then i looked at the contract and i was like it's his contract up there's an out but they have them under contract like a really good number. It's like 20 million the next two years as he turns 30 and 31. I'd always wonder, somebody who's playing that special, who's not even close to being on the timeline, which I don't always love and trying to figure out what a team should do with its roster.
Starting point is 00:46:45 He is playing at such a special level right now. You wonder if Tennessee goes, hey, we need to add more bodies that are younger as we rebuild this entire thing. Because I just was so impressed with him again yesterday. That's it, you know, you even saying that, I'm like, oh, my gosh, where did the time go that he's that old? you know, because maybe it's just because we don't watch Tennessee as closely.
Starting point is 00:47:06 They've been so, you know, bad, really, since the last 25 games of Rabel have been bad there. That's amazing. Yeah, I would love to see it. That's interesting. Like, who are the great players on bad teams? That's an interesting study to do. And where's that age point to where they could be super attractive to a team that needs that to get over the top? I don't know what the trade implications are for him or what.
Starting point is 00:47:30 Well, I never. The cap accelerations would be, I could look at it. Well, yeah, but your league, as far as, like, the value on what stuff is, it doesn't, it never makes any sense to me. Like, there'll be rotation guys in the NBA where you get a first round pick. Now, granted, the first round value, even the 20s versus a first round pick in the NBA. Like, it's very clear in the NBA that smarter GMs are going, hey, these picks are actually kind of overvalued, and I don't care if we package a couple of them for somebody who's not even a star.
Starting point is 00:47:54 But then you'll have somebody who I think is like an impact two-year window guy in the NFL. And it's like, you want a third. rounder for this guy i i know yeah and it's like yes i i would give you a third rounder for geoffrey simmons look i think it would actually take more than that and who knows like if he is this stalwart and the right guy like i know he plays with a ton of attitude and maybe in the past that wasn't always their favorite thing with him um but you wonder hey we just want he would save him money to move him to trade him they would save they would save they would save um they would save on the cap by trading them so they would now we're cooking yeah so if you like if you go to over
Starting point is 00:48:33 the cap yeah over the cap.com and you find his player page you'll see over on the right side there's kind of this uh pull down menu and so you know right now it shows that hey if he was cut you know if he was if he was cut uh there'd be 28 million of dead money and they'd lose six million of cap space but if you go traded after June 1 this year, you'd see, you know, the dead money would be like $5 million, and the cap saving would be $18 million, almost $18 million. So, you know, you have to also take into account it's during the season. He's already received some of his salaries. And so it's not exact, but it's usually a good indication of, you know, how movable somebody is. And that's interesting.
Starting point is 00:49:15 I'd be interesting to see how big picture they are looking there, you know, what type of pressure is on the head coach to get some more wins this year. how that all comes together and and uh but man he he is a he is a really special player but see titans fans you'd expect that much on a national podcast on the titans uh yeah we can we could do some other teams now too i talked to kevin clark last week and i was joking about how like back in the day with baseball it's like you paid your GM a million bucks a year but you paid your utility infielder like not even a guy who started you pay him five million You'd be like, that doesn't seem like it makes a lot of sense. The most important person making the biggest decisions, granted, outside of ownership, you pay him a million, but this guy's not good enough to start at second or short.
Starting point is 00:50:06 But maybe chokes up on two strike counts. You're paying him five million. Well, those things have shifted a little bit, and we've seen it in coaching. But the old Brad Stevens thing that was a joke was like, how many NBA players did you take before Brad Stevens? And I think at the height of the lunacy with that, like that list was way sure. shorter than it should have been. And I think Brad Stevens would probably be the first person to tell you that you shouldn't be taking six players and then me seventh in this hypothetical scenario. But it came up because of Shanahan. Like if Mack Jones is going to look this good with
Starting point is 00:50:37 Shanahan and like whenever, whenever let me start with a smaller question, whenever anybody's talking about the best coach, like how many names are we actually talking about in the NFL? Is it for guys? Yeah, it depends what you're looking for. So to me, there's the best. best coach in terms of the game planning and the differentiating by their scheme, right? That's one thing. There's usually five or six offensive play callers that really make a difference, wouldn't you say, in a league that really you can see over time. They're adding something to it that's different.
Starting point is 00:51:12 Would you agree? Yeah, I think it's like Shanahan's resume of, oh, this guy's just going to look better now. You know, I think McVeigh's resume of where golf was at and then Stafford, but then also adapting quite a bit through later. Stafford years. And my assumption being that if he had had Darnold, the Rams are probably going to be pretty good if their defense is good. So yes, I think that's a big part. But then there's other coaches that are more culture setters, a Mike Tomlin or a Pete Carroll, that fans can get upset with, you know, hearing the same message over and over again. And sometimes they're not as good
Starting point is 00:51:44 and their offensive might be bad, might be really bad, and they can't fix it. But they're still a good coach in a different way. So I look at different types of coaches that way. I put Shanahan. I think Shanahan's probably a good head coach anyway, but he's really special in his ability to have an offense that obviously can produce with a lot of different quarterbacks who may not be a good starter everywhere. So do you think there's any, like if you were to ask owners, like how many players would you take before you take the best coach? I mean, who would your first choice be? If you could have any coach right now that's active to be the coach. To be the coach of your team. Who would you take? Well, to me, Sean McVeigh would be hard to go against
Starting point is 00:52:28 with his age. You know, I think he'd be pretty good just being, he's still 39. I think he would be very appealing because you, you protect yourself on the offensive side of the ball, you're going to have continuity. I think he's shown some guys have come out of there, you know, with a good idea of what to do offensively. And I think he's also, I think he's also, I think he's, He's grown as a coach to be more involved in the defensive side. I think he's put in time to, you know, become a better all-around coach. I think it really matters to him. You can see that almost too much sometimes, but I think he's gotten better at his ability.
Starting point is 00:53:09 You know, he's got a child now. And he's just gotten better with like his life outlook is probably healthier. So I really like him. I'm not going to take that personally. he looked miserable at times in the past and almost walked away and I just feel like he's I don't know the walk away stuff is always like dude you're so all right so maybe you'll do TV for a year or two but you're going to I know but he was miserable I think he was miserable and I think there's some utter boxes of just kind of been checked for him and it doesn't mean
Starting point is 00:53:45 it doesn't mean I wasn't saying anything about you no I'm actually doing that but you know what i mean i just think sometimes you see guys i totally understand what you're saying successful people be miserable successful person be miserable that is a real thing all the time you know um and so i i just kind of i i like where mcfay's at all right i uh i want to ask you about this i want to ask you about this because i don't think i can we can do if maybe it's a bigger exercise that feels like a july segment how many players would you take in the NFL before you would take the first head coach that sounds like July content so we don't need to do that right now it does but but it's probably all quarterbacks right is there a non-quarterback you would take before your first coach
Starting point is 00:54:33 put it this way is there a non-quarter is there a non is there a not who would the rams trade Sean McVeigh for the homes yeah I would the homes um Josh Allen yeah I would Lamar. Lamar, you would have to make a decision on what you think he's going to be physically as he gets older and whether or not that is going to be diminishing in the next five years. But yes, the idea would be a tier one quarterback, which Lamar is right now. So those three guys and Drake May. But Joe Burrow, would you do Burrow with his injuries?
Starting point is 00:55:15 No, not with his injuries. And I love Burrow. But, I mean, I was looking at average. I love Burrow, too. Average depth Jayden Daniels? Uh, no. Not for McVeigh.
Starting point is 00:55:24 So Justin Jefferson? No, they drafted Pooka Naku and he's got Jefferson numbers, right? Yeah. Yeah, right. Like, what about prime Aaron Donald? I mean, if he weren't on the Rams. I don't know. I, I think I would rather have McVeigh.
Starting point is 00:55:45 Jeffrey Simmons in a first? I'm just kidding. Now, now we're getting. But you know what I mean? So how many draft picks would you take for a McVeigh? Would you take three number ones? You wouldn't do Sertan for a head coach? I mean, for a lot of head coaches, but I'm not going to name them, no.
Starting point is 00:56:04 Okay, let's let me just end on this. For somebody like McVeigh who's 39 and you think he's an elite head coach, you're only taking a handful of top quarterbacks. I would think it's a good exercise. Yeah, I think you should ask all your contacts that one. And, you know, we're in the throes of it right now. I was asking you this before we started taping because you can sort this stuff immediately. I thought you were going to need more time to prep.
Starting point is 00:56:29 And so the premise is I feel like, and again, it can be caught up in just the moment of week to week, 25 season. I feel like the teams that are down, those yards have never been easier to get. Or maybe I shouldn't say easier, but it's just the ball is moving. So there's different qualifiers that you have to do to make this right, because if we say two minutes to go, you're down seven, well, they may give you the yards up until you're in field goal range and then it tightens up. So what do you think is the best way to sort this to see if we're seeing something in 25 that is actually an outlier where whenever I'm watching during the closing one o'clock window, obviously because it's so many more games. I'm like, if this team is down three, I expect them to kick the game tying field goal. Yep. So there's two ways to keep this in our mind. One is we can find out what's happening now. It doesn't necessarily mean it's predictive for the future, right? But here's what I did, just when you're talking. I said, okay, let's look at every season. All the drives that start under the two-minute warning, so I'm 159 down to zero. Let's say that you're at your own 10 to your own 40-yard line, okay? and let's say you're trailing by no more than three or you're tied in between there.
Starting point is 00:57:52 And now what percentage of these drives score, okay? Because any score in that point is going to either tie or take the lead, right? Any kind. So if we go back all the way to 2000, the average drive scoring rate is 22%. This year it's 47%. Wow. Last year, for the whole year, it was 27%, the year before that 23, the year before that 15, 27, 34 in 2020.
Starting point is 00:58:24 I think that was the big offensive year. Wasn't that a big offensive year in the league? Yeah, but sure. Might have been kind of at the tail end of that. But 47 would be the highest. Now, I'm going to just do something right now, and I'm going to do, hey, what about in the first five weeks of a season? Is that different than what it's been in the past? And the answer is yes.
Starting point is 00:58:46 Yes, 2012, it was 50%. That's the only year that it's been higher than it is right now. Last year, it was 12.5% is 47% scoring in those situations right now. So that is something going on. Now, what's interesting, too, though, is my mind would go to, okay, kickoff rules, are the drive starting, even though we picked a band of drive start yard lines, is the average starting field position better?
Starting point is 00:59:16 And the answer is, no, it's worse. The average starting field position this year is at your own 24 in those situations. And over the full season in the past, it was at the 27, the 25, the 24, the 25, 24, 24, 25. So the average starting field position is a little bit worse on those. On those. Specific scenarios. Of those specific scenarios. Not on the season in general.
Starting point is 00:59:40 We start our drive under two minutes. We're down by no more than three or we're tied. and we have the ball at the minus 10 to the minus 40 to start our drive. So then it's true. My eyes are not lying to me. You're seeing something. Yeah. There's been eight field goals in those situations this year through five weeks,
Starting point is 01:00:00 and there were 11 field goals all last year in those. So we got something there. Your eyes, this is kind of what research is for, in my opinion. Like we see something. Is it really true? Are we looking at a mirage of, recency or are we seeing something and so we're seeing something that's a great spot to end we're gonna keep just want to let the audience know we're gonna keep tracking that and uh that's why you
Starting point is 01:00:27 i've got it saved why you watch all those games is why you lift all them weights so uh i can't wait to see where that number goes because i every time now in a game start this season i'm just like yeah they'll they'll kick it they'll win they'll tie it up like it's just automatic uh that's an outrageous number i had also been i'd been thinking early in the year i just i'm in a follow up on this because I feel like the first couple weeks, I felt like, oh, these long-range kickers are changing everything. But that hasn't been quite as stark as it seems either. So it's always good to keep looking at the numbers. Mike Sando, the athletic, read them every single week, the pick six column. And he has other pieces as well. A great resource and a great guest. Thanks,
Starting point is 01:01:04 man. Thank you. The Ryan Rosillo podcast is brought to you by Fandul. The Fandul's Sportsbook app is your home for all your favorite NFL bets from yards and touchdowns to who will win. And when the Chiefs and Jags play tonight, Fanduil is giving all customers a 50% same game parlay, PBT or a 30% anytime bet PBT. Okay, let's look at the board. Straight up, I like the Chiefs minus three and a half.
Starting point is 01:01:34 I feel like the Ravens, even with all the injuries in that, a bit of a get-right game, this Jags turnover margin thing has to end, maybe against a Heady Chiefs team, looking to do something on national television on the road not that long of a flight right um or do we want to go kelsey do you need a win so bad you're willing to go minus 1100 Kelsey 15 or more yards receiving right just turn to your buddies and be like I don't care if it's nine bucks winter baby that seems like a little bit too much to risk so what if we go 40 plus yards minus 150
Starting point is 01:02:13 So let's take out that one. Let's go a little Kansas City. I actually like that. Kelsey, 40 plus yards, Kansas City minus three and a half plus 196. Now, why are you doing that? Why are you talking about Kelsey here? A couple of reasons. Looking at the Jags game log defensively against opposing tight ends or really, you know, decent games.
Starting point is 01:02:36 If I pull it up again, it looks like it is. We got what? 68 yards, 80 yards, 65, 6. 64 yards against opposing tight ends so far this season. The only game of the tight ends not show up that was in the Cincinnati game. Also, Jacksonville, huge market for Taylor Swift. Huge. So you think you're going to get that kind of lyric sung about your body in a new Swift release
Starting point is 01:03:02 and not want to show out for Duval? You'd be crazy to think otherwise. Visit fandal.com slash Ryan Rye end to bet the chiefs versus the chiefs versus the Jags with a 50% same game parlay PBT or 30% on any bet type PBT. Play your game with Fandul an official sports betting partner of the NFL. Must be 21 and older and present select states are 18 plus and present DC, Kentucky, Wyoming. Opting required rewards are non-withdrawable. Restrictions apply, including bonus and token expiration, leg requirements, and max wager amount.
Starting point is 01:03:35 See terms at sportsbook.Fandau.com. Gamble problem. Call 100 gambler. Visit RG dash help.com. Call 888-777 or visit at CCPG.org forward slash chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Scout Motors, whether on the gridiron or off of it, America loves a game changer. The all-new Scout Terra and Scout Traveler are entering the game, iconic in the 70s.
Starting point is 01:03:57 Reimagined for today and engineer before-wheel drive, available locking differentials, optional 35-inch tires, and a projected 1,000 pound feet of torque. Opposing defenses. Take note. Join the waitlist at Scout Motors.com. Concept vehicles, not available for sale. Features and performance specifications are preliminary and subject to change.
Starting point is 01:04:17 Joining the wait list does not guarantee purchase. Visit scout motors.com for details. Okay, we're deep enough into the college football season. I'm going to give out my playoff rankings, the top 12 teams. We're building a bracket today. The reason I've waited, I even think it might be dumb to do this now, but pay content, baby. I need you to do something. This is how we avoid the Penn States.
Starting point is 01:04:37 This is how we avoid some of this record glossing that can happen at times. you know, I just, I think we have enough now, you know, and we'll talk about Penn State where, you know, this way maybe avoids a Penn State where it's just like, I've got to see something from you. But again, carryover is very natural and more so in college football than any other sport. I'm totally okay with it because I don't know that anybody can do it without that happening. So let's get to it. I have Miami number one. I think they're the number one team of the country. They're not in the AP poll. That's fine. I think it's kind of a coin toss here. But Miami has three kind of four good wins. Notre Dame's a good win. Yes, Florida is a good win. I will include Florida. Like, think USC. I don't know if they're going to be ranked. I think there's a meaty good in college football that has to be acknowledged where you can't just look at a schedule and say ranked win, ranked win, look at the ranked win. And then these other good wins don't ever seem to count whenever we're arguing all this stuff. We're talking about who should be in or out of the playoffs later on. And it's just a matter of, it's not just, you know, hey, you watch a
Starting point is 01:05:39 million games and all this kind of stuff. It's just, there are certain teams that are just good, and maybe they have a tougher schedule, and their record doesn't reflect that there is good as some team that hasn't played anybody. But even with the USF stuff in there and domination against Florida State, I think those are four good wins in there. And yes, I would include Florida in it, even before them upsetting Texas at the swamp. So the schedule, by the way, they will not leave the state of Florida until the eighth game. That's at SMU. They have four total role games. It's not egregious because usually just kind of like five for a lot of the big time programs. Nobody else is ranked the rest of the way. The combined record of the remaining
Starting point is 01:06:16 teams of their schedule is 17 and 16. And they are just housing like these teams physically. You know, it's not so much the score against Notre Dame. Yes, it was a one score game. Florida had the ball back in that. But, you know, Florida State goes right down the field, awesome atmosphere. They get a field goal on the board, and then it's like, now we're going to put it of like 28 straight on you. And I know it got sloppy late and the score. I just don't think that final score is indicative of what total domination that was by the hurricanes. So I've got them number one. Number two, Ohio State.
Starting point is 01:06:48 I watched a lot of this Minnesota game because I really wanted to watch more of Ohio State and watch their offense going into this one. And I think Sayan was allowed to kind of let it fly in this one. He had almost a perfect QBR in this one, 12 yards per attempt, his best performance against really any, buddy. I mean, you could put the grambling numbers in there, but like a solid power for performance against the Minnesota team that I think is okay. You know, I think they're potentially in that meaty good as well. I probably like them having one more win than three and two. It's funny, I was looking at some of the defensive numbers here for Ohio State and like there's two that are ridiculous. Here's one of them. So coming in teams were three of 35 on any third down that was
Starting point is 01:07:31 four or more yards in distance. Minnesota converted a third and five. in the beginning. It was actually an incredible play by Lindsay. Then they went 0 of 9. So now teams are combined four of 45 converting third downs that are four or more yards in distance against this Ohio State defense. And if you look at the red zone scoring number, in college football, I can't sort it by touchdown or field goal in the NFL I can. So just it's field goals, it's touchdowns. How often is the opponent scoring in the red zone? Right now against Ohio State, they're scoring 43 percent of the time. That's a ridiculous number because you're including field goals in that. Number two in college football is USC at 57%. So there's that much of a gap. They're number two in opponent's yards per play. Oklahoma's number one.
Starting point is 01:08:20 I have Oregon three. There's third in the AP. They're second in the coaches poll. Some of this can be attributed to, well, how good is that Penn State win? Here's what I know. I watch that entire game, and that's still a good fucking win, even though Penn State inexplicably lost to UCLA. So I think it's important to remind ourselves the Rosillo rule here of
Starting point is 01:08:44 on that night, did that look like it was an impressive win? And I think it was, but you certainly, like, if you're going to make that argument, you can do the same thing for Ohio states against Texas. But I don't know if that's why I have Miami ahead of them. But there's also like an interesting part of this where when you go through the SC depth, or excuse me, not SC, Southern California. When you go through the SEC's depth
Starting point is 01:09:08 and you start looking at the teams that are like 10th or 11th or 12th, it's easily the deepest league. I don't even know how it's debatable, but people will try. But does the SEC have that title contender that even matches up with these three teams?
Starting point is 01:09:30 As of now, it feels like there's a gap between those three teams and then who the SEC Challenger would be. Number four, I have Oklahoma. If Mateer weren't available for the playoff today, maybe I'd look at it differently. They're plus two and a half against Texas in that spot, which makes sense because Mattier isn't playing.
Starting point is 01:09:47 Hawkins is fun. We'll see what happens. Five, I have Ole Miss. A&M, I have six. Now, A&M, if you look at the rankings with their win against Mississippi State, is actually pretty good. It was an ugly game early.
Starting point is 01:10:02 they ended up housing them. The AP has an Ole Miss A&M in Oklahoma, so I have it a little reversed here. I'll just explain all this stuff. There are a lot of defensive numbers for A&M that you're going to like. Their fifth and opponent's third down conversion. They're 17th in yards for play allowed. Old Miss is actually 32nd and 39th in those categories. I like Trinidad more than Marcel Reed. I think there's some red zone numbers there for A&M defensively that maybe you don't really like. Reed's completed 20 passes once, all season. That was the first game against UTSA. So I like Mateer the most. I like Trinidad. The second most, I like Marcel Reed, third out of that group. But some people are really,
Starting point is 01:10:45 really on A&M. I apparently am not one of those people so far. Number seven, what are you going to do, Rai? What are you going to do? Indiana, seventh in the AP, seventh in the coaches poll. I'm going to put Alabama seven. Figures. Here's the problem. And I'm going to call everybody out on this right now. I actually like Indiana way more now than I did a year ago because they've got that Illinois win. They've got that Iowa. There's some things there. There's technically that rank win, but like the way Illinois responded after that loss to beat USC and looked like the superior team, like that's going to be a good win to me.
Starting point is 01:11:19 And they killed them. But if there was supposed to be some sort of like adjustment to how people look at teams, what do you think Alabama's record would be if they didn't play Florida State, played Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, and Indiana State to start the year. Like this is what you're supposed to do. You're supposed to look at that and they go, okay, but the other team has a loss,
Starting point is 01:11:43 but yeah, they went to Tallahassee. And look, a win at Georgia is better than a win against Illinois at home, even though they won by 53 points. So that's what I'm doing. And I think everybody should do it instead of just saying, hey, this team's undefeated and this team has a loss.
Starting point is 01:11:58 I'm not even sure that I love BAM, because they also have the Vandy win in there. And that was a tough game. And they got the two deep, they got the fumble on Pavia. They got the interception of Pavia, which is a terrible throw. That was a game. That was another one of those scores. The final score is not a good indicator of what that game was.
Starting point is 01:12:14 So that wasn't, like, this isn't like Bama's dominant and they're rolling and there aren't some issues that I have with them defensively. But resume-wise, you have to reward Bama for playing somebody and losing than not playing anybody and then still having, I don't know if the Vandy win at home is better. Look, it isn't because the Illinois win, even though it's top 10, whatever, they killed them. But there's nothing to compare with the Georgia win on Indiana's resume. So I think that's really important. Eight, I have Texas Tech with their win at Utah. Nine, I have Indiana. I'd put them third if they beat Oregon this week. They're plus eight and a half on Fandul. Georgia. All right.
Starting point is 01:13:01 So I have him 10th if neutral field against Indiana, I'm probably not sure what I would do. I mean, the fact that I'm even thinking about it is a compliment to the Hoosiers. But the defense is not the same. We covered that after the Bama loss, 45th in opponent's yards per play. We thought the drop off was into the 24th season. The drop off continues into the 25 season. I think that the most one-dimensional team of any of the top 10 teams that I have here. And if I look at the top 10, so one through my 10 that I just did, and look at team passer rating, they're 35th, which is lowest of any of these teams.
Starting point is 01:13:40 LSU, by the way, is 99th, Mizzou's 29th. So, LSU is 11th in the AP. I'll go with Tennessee for my playoff ranking. So I've got the Vols 11th, 12. What are you going to do, Ryan? You're going to put LSU in there. You've got Georgia Tech as an option. The wake game's still tough to kind of ignore.
Starting point is 01:13:57 Missou's South Carolina win Is that better than LSU's win at Clemson? Michigan Underwood 270 yards in their win against Wisconsin The first 270-yard game by a Michigan passer in two years Underwood had let a couple balls fly By the way, Justice Haynes has been incredible for him Already almost 700 yards
Starting point is 01:14:23 Fourth in the country So if we're going to talk rushing we had to talk Hardy with Mizzou, who's actually leading the country. So I know that there's this hope that I have because of LSU's talent, but the offense is even worse when you start looking up some of these stats that I just can't do it. So I'll go ahead and put Mizzou there 12th over the options that I have on the board. Okay, so Penn State and Texas both lose. They go from seventh and ninth in the polls to unranked.
Starting point is 01:14:54 That's the first time you've had two top ten teams. fall out of the rankings after the same weekend since 1986. UCLA was O.N. 4 that already fired their coach. New Heisle just started calling plays. You saw his picture everywhere. That's the first time an O'N4 team has beat a top 10 team in 40 years. Then you have the Texas side of this where Arch Manning had like three good throws. Two of them were back to back.
Starting point is 01:15:19 The second was a touchdown. The rest of it makes me think he looks more like Jackson Arnold than anybody else. and Florida's offense, which had been a mess, looks a lot better when Dallas Wilson is in the lineup, the freshman stud receiver. Look, I'm holding out on the lagway thing. I know what the numbers are. I know the five picks against LSU.
Starting point is 01:15:37 I think he's like right up there with the most talented quarterbacks in college football. And I know it hasn't necessarily worked out for him. So you have the Texas loss. Don't know what to do with them because they have everybody. The Penn State loss where, you know, Franklin just couldn't help himself. he had to mention the travel no one fucking cares man like you guys all did this to yourselves
Starting point is 01:16:01 all right you ruined the geographical nature and identity and culture of this sport i read this headline about private equity getting involved i was like that's awesome um i mean look at least sark didn't complain about the travel i don't think to the swan You want details? Bye. I drive a Ferrari, 355 Cabriolet. What's up? I have a ridiculous house in the South Fork.
Starting point is 01:16:35 I have every toy you can possibly imagine. And best of all, kids, I am liquid. So, now you know what's possible. Let me tell you what's required. Today's life advice is brought to by Amazon Business. And when it comes to bring in your visions to life, trying Amazon business is an easy service to recommend. With smart business buying, Amazon business lets you get everything you need to grow in one familiar
Starting point is 01:16:58 place from office supplies to IT essentials and maintenance tools. Now let's get to it. All right, life advice, email address, life advice, RR at gmail.com. What have we got here, folks? How was everybody? Great morning. How great is this morning with Drake May doing what you did last night? I can't remember the last time I had a great morning like this.
Starting point is 01:17:19 It's been a while. Damn. Do you ever think about volunteering? You know what? I'll put it on the list. I'll take, I'm open to suggestions. What are Drake May's charities?
Starting point is 01:17:31 What's he got? Kyle signing up. You could start a Drake May fund. I don't know if that would sound good though. That might. I'll workshop at all. You know, let's start a text threat after this and, you know,
Starting point is 01:17:47 take some action. Let's title it something. Yeah, something. You're a Drake Mae guy, too, Surrudi. Yeah, I mean, I don't want to be that guy, but I had some money on a game last year. I had the Rams, so I watched that game very closely. And I, but the patch should have won the game last year, and I was like, dude, Drake is awesome. And I know it's been kind of weird since I think coaching obviously last year was terrible, but I've been a believer.
Starting point is 01:18:10 It's funny, I've been a, people sometimes accuse me of being like, hey, I just like kind of like mirror your takes. But I was a big Jaden guy and I was a big Drake. May guy didn't love Caleb and I know Caleb's kind of coming around a little bit but like I'm feeling good about my two guys Jayden with a huge one yesterday as well what didn't you like about Caleb uh careful I mean listen I'm not I'm not a big USC guys so I guess there was a little bias in there uh you know I think you start doing the hey like this is the next Mahomes thing and he's like you know he doesn't does everything's completely off platform I may not try to be like Todd McShay here but like I just
Starting point is 01:18:49 I just. Off platform. Yeah, you know, I just didn't, I didn't, I didn't really see it. So,
Starting point is 01:18:54 you know, there it is. I was, I was telling Ryan, before we, before we got on, that I went to this thing called Cosm yesterday
Starting point is 01:19:02 with, uh, my, my father-in-law bought his tickets. He's a big bills fan. Like, he even bought that rivalry's jersey to wear, so it could be like a white out.
Starting point is 01:19:09 Like, he's a big bills guy for forever. And his girlfriend's from out here and, and she's basically became a bill's person. And then my wife ordered this bills t-shirt in secret. like wore a sweatshirt until we got in the car to get to the game takes it off and like just comes out
Starting point is 01:19:25 as a Bill's fan as we're at this game. I was so pissed. I felt betrayed. And what really made me like so mad is like she didn't know anything. Like there were these little number like the records under the things. Like what are those numbers? I'm like you can't wear a Bill's jersey a Bill's T-shirt and like you know be clapping for
Starting point is 01:19:42 them and ask me what are those numbers mean up there? It's like yeah, that's the record. Anyway. Keep up. Yeah, that's tough. Man, I'm so glad we didn't lose because I would have been a puddle because that was I mean I felt like I got stabbed in the back yesterday it's like you know if you cared it's one thing but you don't care enough to even know and you just decided to come out against me I mean listen your dad's great but never rooted for the bills ever in her life and she secretly wore a bill shirt
Starting point is 01:20:05 she loves her dad man I'll give you that but come on at least together Christ I will say those bills jersees were kind of cool hmm you didn't like them yeah I like the Patriots one's better. I thought they looked silly. They were fine. Yeah. I mean, I guess. You like the silver, a little silver number there, accents. No, I guess, I guess they were good. What were those? The ice whites or something. Is that what they were called? Be careful. Dude, if you told me that's what they're saying, I'd be like, yeah, that's it. Yeah. Not a political statement. I will say one guy, I mean, that thing, Cosma is awesome. I'm not doing any free pub here, but one guy got like stadium drunk and literally fell over a row like it was it really like it already felt like we're in a stadium and then
Starting point is 01:20:52 they're playing music you know like you get the broadcast as well but when they go to commercial they're playing music this guy was like doing like this and then just totally fell over a row it like I've never felt more like I was at a stadium with a guy like falling down to maybe that guy was an actor and they were just like we want to make this thing feel real real you have some guy get super hammered and fall down hammered Steve he was wearing a he was wearing a Josh Allen MVP shirt he gets up doesn't get kicked out and then starts an MVP chant. I was like, this is incredible. Cause of L.A. dude. You guys are the best. All right. This is an announcement. So we'll probably not the announcement that you're
Starting point is 01:21:29 waiting on. It was an engagement announcement from a listener. But I think we'll, I think we'll hold off on that. All right. So we've got a wife checking in. This is a good segue. I had Kyle's betrayal. My husband says, you need my stats. I'm 5, 4, 116 pounds. You can probably bench 50 pounds. Here's the thing. I know Boston fans are not normal. While he didn't explicitly make our wedding conditional on my lifelong undying hatred of the Yankees, it was understood. So help me out. My husband is never at a loss of words about sports. His voice gets husky when he talks about the Red Sox. And when Tatum was injured at the end of last season, he spends hours messaging with his guys. A group of seven from grade school. Okay. They go way back. He texts with seven-year-olds from grade school. No. They've known each other since they were seven.
Starting point is 01:22:21 And what it meant for the 20-26 season. And if I say something like, quote, I think Roman Anthony is a really good player. His eyes sparkle. And he validates that with a you are so right cutie pie and then elaborates for me. But if I say my feelings were a little hurt, you didn't admire me in that black dress,
Starting point is 01:22:39 the guy is at a loss for words. I mean, he's got nothing. He might, with prodding, choke out nice. but that's about it. I mean, come on, Ryan, what gives answering this email will help a lot of wives understand what we're dealing with here. I think it's kind of like the assumption thing that men can do is like, why would I tell you something that you already know?
Starting point is 01:23:02 And that can be one of those lifelong gender disconnects that never quite get solved unless you're like I have one buddy. I almost said one husband. I would have been newsworthy. but I have one buddy he's just really good at being a husband like when I go visit he does all of those things
Starting point is 01:23:23 and I think he wants to too so it's not face he is she way hotter than him um she is but but it's not like he's never he is a forever
Starting point is 01:23:39 above the rim player I mean he's stro file Strow Miles Swift can't believe I screwed up my guy's name. He's forever been Stowe Miles Swift his entire life to the point where we had to like sit down in one point. We're like, we all thought you were sort of repulsive and apparently you're not. And trust me, this is a compliment. Yeah, yeah, right.
Starting point is 01:24:02 No offense. Really, I just want to say congrats, you're doing great. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Because you're kind of like what, what's going on here? Like this guy I get. This one makes sense. but like this guy I don't know I mean I don't I can't quite figure him out but whenever I've interacted with he and his wife like there's a real like just he he's made a concerted effort throughout his marriage to be like I'm going to say the things that guys do a bad job with and I think he wants to I think it's actually like in his nature to want to be like that the point is is that most of us just don't do that like it's not efficient it's like if you look great why would I why I would tell you look great again or like what's going on that I need to tell you you're great all the time so or if you're like
Starting point is 01:24:45 first high school girlfriend or college you just like said it too much he's like dude you're weird to me yeah that too maybe you're scarred from that you're like man nice guys do finish last and I'm never going to make that mistake again you know yeah right like you don't want to exactly Kyle like there's a line and unfortunately the line is different for every other person that you're going to date you know some people need to hear it all the time which is a different validation conversation altogether the point is he's not sure if you realize how special Roman Anthony is. So like, I'm sure you look great in the dress and he knows that you look great in the dress
Starting point is 01:25:18 and like it doesn't need to be discussed. I can totally understand where he's at wondering where you're at on Roman Anthony. And so that's a special kind of backing for your partner that we're looking. It's going to fall in a different category. We're talking about a potential behavior change here, right? In her stats, how long have they been married? Like, is this something that's gone on said for a little too long? I mean, nothing's too long. If you guys are, you know, you're married, I'd be able to talk about something. But if we're like 10 years down the road and
Starting point is 01:25:49 she's just like, man, why don't you ever tell me I look pretty? It's just like, that's going to be a little tougher to break the mold, I think, than if it's like freshly married or whatever, right? She said husband, right? Yeah, I mean, I don't know. There's no number there, but I guess they've been together for a while. If she's emailing the show because he listens all the time, and like this is a really good chance you've had that black dress forever he's probably seen you in that black dress a bunch of different times roman anthony just got called up that's perspective yeah we're waiting on him you know and he delivered so this one's long let's go for it what's up fellow six foot 190 crush home gym 50 pound adjustable dumbbells
Starting point is 01:26:36 and kettle bell and cruise to an eight minute mile. Eight minutes. Mush for a man we're here. Happen that guy. He said eight's got, he said eight's good, right? We've done this before. He said that. It's not bragworthy. Not at all.
Starting point is 01:26:54 What was the debate? I was out, obviously, for that. What was I just read about it? It was, what could you, what could you like say you ran the mile in? The mile, not what's your average mile. And I think that was what people were like, have people be impressed by it? Right. Yeah, it's like seven probably, right? A little over seven. I think it's, I think it should be lower than that. But, well, what age too? If I ran a seven minute mile, I would tell people about it tomorrow. I'd tell you about it today. Like, guys, look what I did. Should we go to you do YouTube? Special for this week. And for people that are going to be like, oh, Rosillo, I bet you can't run a seven mile. I bet I can't right now either. But I'm also not like training for it and then bragging about it. I think to really, we've covered this. And it actually led to a million emails from people that I don't want to ever read again. So we're good. With two young kids, I'm able to hit the garage gym three times a week. I'm feeling absolutely jacked and proud. All right. Sorry after we crushed your mouth. Sorry in advance for the long preamble of the question here, but I think setting the scene in advance is necessary. Dude, nobody sets a scene like your boy. But this is a long one. My next door neighbor was a quirky and interesting guy. As a first time home owner, it was perfect. He was retired and happy to help with any DIY. task I needed. Why go to Ace Hardware and ask for help? And I can go right next door. Ask David
Starting point is 01:28:13 for advice and come home from work the next day with all the tools and material needed to seek a leaking gutter or dig out and build a French drain. This free inconvenience service, of course, came with the drawback of him waiting for me to come home from work every day to tell me stories. He told me a hundred times or an update on how late the recycling pickup was that day. I'm sad to say that sometimes I would have to stealthily get from my car to my house to avoid what would undoubtedly be a 15-minute conversation about God knows what. I mean, totally get been there. I can't wait to fucking ask about recycling pickup times in 25 years.
Starting point is 01:28:52 I'm going to be brutal with it. Price of chicken wires up. Have you been to Home Depot recently? Got any packages I can pick up? he's leaving town you just text me i'll get right over there posters golf club occasionally uh he would be my help in the yard while i was at work without me asking it usually was harmless busy work but sometimes he would do things above and beyond the call that i would never want him to do he cut one of my trees down without asking claiming the beetle
Starting point is 01:29:22 had invested infested a beautiful japanese maple in my front yard so he had no choice but the chainsawed the pieces without um me asking that one really pissed me off, but he felt bad about it so that he bought me a new maple. We planted it together. Wow. Over 12 years. I think we needed this backstory. Over 12 years, I really appreciated him from what he was. A unique character in my life always meant well. And deep down was a good person, a congenial, but socially awkward person. He frequented the restaurant down the street every night. He had a few cocktails and shot the shit with the bartender and patron next to him. If I were walking the dog or strolling the baby at the nearby lakefront, you could count on him chatting up some
Starting point is 01:29:59 poor soul caught in his web. The day I moved into my house, he rang the doorbell an hour later, and he's wearing two watches, a Rolex on one wrist and a digital cassio on the other. I never forget where you came from, dude. He gave a five-minute speech about his life in the neighborhood, but obviously my first question of him afterwards is, what's with the two watches? I mean, that's a bold question. That's like a day two. Like, hey, I couldn't, I couldn't help, but this guy did it immediately. His response was that he was a pilot, engineer, and simply liked wearing two. I figured out pretty quickly that the guy who wears two watches has to be the same guy who has a sign that says Chevy Man Cave above his front door, and
Starting point is 01:30:33 so no shocker. He was a bachelor's whole life. His first wife left him immediately after coming back from Vietnam because he was a baby killer. And that clearly really messed with him. In fact, given how many times he told me that story, you could say it was a real turning point in his life. Being a bachelor, he often mentioned he was going to leave everything he had to St. Jude's in his will. He would visit the kids there every month and felt a deep connection with him. Last year, he started telling me about his watches again. I finally asked him, what's so special about the Rolex anyway. I'm not a watch guy, so I was generally curious. he said he felt a connection of Rolex because he wore one flying jets in Vietnam and he attributes
Starting point is 01:31:03 the Rolex to making it out of the war alive. Wow, it's pretty great. The next time he mentioned how he was going to donate to St. Jude's, I said to him, I'd love the opportunity to buy his watch off of him as to be a great way to remember him. It actually caught him off guard and he went deep in a thought and he said, I guess it's all going to the same place. If I give them the watch, they'll sell it or you give me the money for it and they get the money. He said, so okay, that was the last time we ever talked about the watch. Shortly after he heard his back, changed. He stopped going to the bar. It wasn't outside much anymore. It became a recluse, which is the opposite of his personality. Sadly, seems like he drank himself to death in May of this
Starting point is 01:31:37 year. Sad. His brother picking up the pieces and sorting out his estate, and I told him how he wanted everything to go to St. Jude's. After a few conversations with the brother, I mentioned the story I just told and expressed my interest in buying the watch from his estate. This time, I had no idea what the watch was besides a Rolex, what model or year and didn't have a clue of what to expect on pricing. The brother said no, that he wanted to keep the watch for sentimental reasons. I said, no problem. I get it. He never mentioned it again. Yeah. I mean, this actually seems like all like really good. Yep. You know what I mean? As opposed to, hey, this guy's about to die. That's a pretty sweet vintage Rolex. Right. It's all above board. Yeah, right. Like there's, there's a version of this where
Starting point is 01:32:17 you're like, of course, the brother said no immediately or whatever. And I could even see the brother not even thinking about it instinctively saying no. It'd be like the neighbor sitting there being like, hey, can I buy his Rolex right now? You platinum on me, motherfucker? Exactly. That was three months ago. Last week, the brother called me and said to come over. And he just handed me the watch.
Starting point is 01:32:35 Whoa. Said that his brother would have wanted me to have it. We started crying. It was very emotional. And I'm still in a state of shock about it. I use context clues to find out if the watch and found out the watches of vintage 1971 Pepsi GMT, the watch is disassembled and clearly needs some maintenance. So I took it to a local Rolex dealer to see.
Starting point is 01:32:54 what a repair would cost, initial repair of about 5,000 and a likely four-month wait as it needs to be shipped out to some hardcore watchmakers potentially in Geneva. Given its age, I should expect another 2,000 every five years if I want to keep it running perfectly with no promise the parts will exist decades from now to repair it further. The watchmaker told me right now, as is, and disassembled,
Starting point is 01:33:16 people would pay $30,000 for the watch. What would you do in this situation? and pay the money to fix the watch knowing what it will cost for future repairs, sell the watch and buy a new version of the exact same thing in pocket 15K, keep the watch as is, leave it in a box, pass it down on my children. I think this is incredible heirloom with a story to tell, and that's what I find to be most compelling about it. I think my neighbor would want me to repair it and wear it, which is the route I'm leaning, but curious how you guys have moved forward with this. Yeah, I mean, a lot of it has to do with your financial situation, right? Or do you think in the future,
Starting point is 01:33:50 I mean, most of us kind of sit around thinking we're all going to do better than we're currently doing, which is kind of cool about all of us in a way. I mean, it's why people do no money down, zero interest for 12 months because they're like, fuck, I'll be killing it, 12 months. 12 months. I haven't even started my podcast yet. Yeah, that's what things are really going to turn around. Month 11.
Starting point is 01:34:12 Yeah, I mean, there's just something in our nature that thinks, like, so I would ask if you actually think you're legitimately going to be doing better down the road, would you regret taking this profit for something that I mean if this guy look you knew him for 12 years and it seems like you really cared about it and the fact that you broke down with the brother I'd also add in I think it's a little shitty for you to turn around and I don't think you're leaning this way you said you're leaning the other way of keeping it and having it but to get the watch and then get it for free and then flip it for 30 grand or 25 grand minus expenses on this kind of repair I think that would be kind of shitty and it also might be something even if you're financially strapped right now
Starting point is 01:34:49 it could be something five years from now, you're going to absolutely regret. I don't have a ton of experience in the vintage thing. I would say 2000 every five years. Maybe that's mandatory. Like Rolexes are supposed to be serviced pretty regularly. I don't know if you really need to do it as often as they say you have to do it with the newer ones. And yeah, when you send it away, it goes away for a long time. So there's that part of it. But if you think you're going to be in a position in however many years where the $25,000 actually like long term isn't going to make that big of a difference and that you got it for free under the pretense that this is something that you know you'd be able to remember your neighbor by and this guy's brother i i would personally feel like
Starting point is 01:35:36 it would be kind of fucked to to flip it even though that's a pretty nice profit so Yeah, this is like a human story. This is like a one bad. It's like a Paul Thomas Anderson thing. Yeah. I mean, this is like he said no, how to change your heart. You guys came together. You know, you cried. You got your maple back with that whole thing. That would have been a life advice thing in itself. It's like, do I get the town involved? Like this whole story has been like great. And this would be a really kind of terrible end, I think. You know, I'm not sure if karma's real or not. But I think if it is, you certainly would be racking up some points in the bad department if you did that. And you can get to watch fixed on your own time. If it's not like, you know, you don't have to, if the watch guy's like, all right, five grand right now, take it or leave it. Like, you could be like, all right, I'll put this back at home until I'm ready to drop five grand on it. I think this is, I mean, talk about found money, but like in a good way. Like this is like capital, like emotional capital. It's not like, you don't have to just take 30 grand for this watch that was clearly special enough that he wore it with another watch just because you wanted to get it, get the fit together. So, yeah, I think, you know, I'd keep the watch no matter what and get it fixed on your own time.
Starting point is 01:36:44 Yeah, first off, this is like an incredible story and just human connection, and it just makes me think of, you know, I had a neighbor at my old house that I just really didn't like and it was a bummer. And it would be so cool to have a connection with a neighbor like that that I'm like jealous of that experience. We got a better setup now, which is nice, although they're on the younger side. But to like to have an old dude like that who, you know, isn't even, you know, isn't your dad, but you can just kind of lean on for stuff and you grew with for 12 years. I'm not a karma guy, but I would be looking over my shoulder if I sold that watch. I just, I wouldn't feel good about that whatsoever. And here's, yeah, like, I think you guys said it. Like, why, if you have the money to fix it now, fix it, if not, I would just hold
Starting point is 01:37:23 on to it. I mean, what is the depreciation? Like, if, if in 10 years, you're in a totally different space and you need the money or something, like, is it still going to be worth like 20 to 30 grand? Like, could you just kind of kick the can down the, I think you sold it right now. It's just a, it's just a bad, you're putting bad stuff into the universe. And I have, I'm not into like mood rocks or any of that stuff whatsoever. I just, I don't think you.
Starting point is 01:37:43 You want that on your conscience. And, you know, what's the worst thing that happens? Like, if you don't have to, it doesn't have to be a functionalable, wearable watch. You can just have this nice thing in memory of a guy that, you know, you spent a lot of cool time with and was a cool dude in your life. So that, that's what I wear watches that don't work all the time. I wear watches that don't work all the time until I can get them, you know, I'll bring four of them, bring four of them to a guy in the mall and be like, take out this link.
Starting point is 01:38:06 It's just a battery change, whatever, and then do some batteries, please. Do four batteries at once. I've been wearing watches that don't work. When people ask me the time, I have to, like, peek at my phone because my watch doesn't work. I'll be like, oh, you know, I just went to New York. This thing's all screwed up. Like, I'm hours off. So it's not crazy to where I watch that.
Starting point is 01:38:23 You just say, like, well, this is such a wreck of it. Yeah. Sounds cool. Can you wear a broken vintage watch, though? Like, if it's probably cooler, like the watch is old and vintage. If it's broken, people will understand that, too. You don't even have to explain that. It's like, yeah, just a cool watch.
Starting point is 01:38:40 It doesn't work anymore, but I like the way it looks. Yeah, you could probably get away with all that. But there's a really good chance, too, because it's a Rolex and because it's this old, it's going to be worth more in the future, too, on top of everything else. I mean, the watch market thing, sometimes you could just look at like Bitcoin's price. And then if you go to the secondary watch market, like something that you could really, really like that's really expensive. You're like, oh, all this stuff has gone up again.
Starting point is 01:39:02 I mean, I don't know if anything will approach the absolute runaway freight train of the secondary pricing luxury watch market during the pandemic where I guess people were like, I'm not going on vacations. I'm not doing this. But it was just odd, like, these luxury items during that time, people were just buying up everything. Do you know that because you were going to be one of those guys? No, but I'll look up how much stuff is going for.
Starting point is 01:39:27 I didn't buy anything during that time at all. Oh, I bought a house. So that's why I wasn't buying anything else. You bought the NFT grace. Yeah, nice. Sacked. No, I did. I looked around and was like, okay, nobody, like, people think the world's going to end.
Starting point is 01:39:42 I was like, so I'll buy a house that I think is going to go lower than it would have gone. So I didn't buy a watch. Usually your banker's not like, hey, what the hell just happened here? I thought we were making smart decisions on this thing. No, but you can look, even like stuff like stock X and sneakers. I mean, I don't know. I can probably connect the dots on how that was happening of like all of this stuff that you would have thought when people freaking out about the economy and then people getting checks it just felt like people were like
Starting point is 01:40:20 I'm actually kind of fine and now I have this extra money coming in for a lot of people that money was absolutely like the most important thing to keep keep them upright and keep them going through things I think there's a lot of people that didn't necessarily make a ton of money that qualify for it didn't because you could just see like folks that works on computers just got 1800 bucks or 12 whatever it was like if you just like didn't miss a beat beat. You still got that. Yeah, right. So this is not some big economic complaint that I have about government or subsidizing things. It was just very clear. There's a correlation between spending habits on certain things. So you would think, like, how is it so hard to, like, get this
Starting point is 01:40:59 car? Well, somebody that could afford, say, a $100,000 land rover, they're thinking, well, I'm not renting a house, NASPN. I'm not going to the Caribbean. I'm not doing the three vacations. you know what I mean and all of a sudden you started just seeing things that were like you could also talk about supply chain and all that kind of thing but it was very obvious there were there were a lot of things happening during that time that almost ran counter to what you would have thought people would have been doing so that's all did you also get the boat during that time I feel like dude just like yeah just get a boat get on the water right here it was it was a little bit after it although California felt like we got like an extra extra year they're like if you
Starting point is 01:41:40 get a boat though that's because we did it yeah they're like some guy came by the marina's like no mask like it's just me they're like nobody would have a boat this big by themselves it's just me dude yeah it'll list of some almond brothers out in malibu let me live just just me weed free also today's life advice was brought to you by amazon business it's time to free up your teams and focus on your future learn more about the Technology, Insights, and Support available at Amazonbusiness.com. That'll do it for the show today. Thanks to Kyle.
Starting point is 01:42:15 Thanks to Sir Rudy. Thanks to Jonathan Prius. You can check us out. Video on the Spotify app, YouTube. Brian Russela podcast, Ring your Spotify. They were going to name me Michael Jordan. My dad was like, I don't think he can live up to it. So they named me Michael Jared.
Starting point is 01:42:40 Must be 21 and older and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in D.C. Kentucky or Wyoming gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler or visit RG dash help.com. Call 1-88-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org forward slash chat in Connecticut or visit MD gambling help.org in Maryland. Hope is there. Visit gambling help line, ma.org, or call 800 32750-50 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts, or call 1-8778 Hope NY or text Hope NY in New York.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.