The Ryen Russillo Podcast - Cam Newton in New England. Plus, Andy Benoit’s Breakdown of All 626 Interceptable Balls of the 2019 NFL Season.

Episode Date: June 30, 2020

Russillo is joined by NFL analyst Andy Benoit to discuss the Patriots’ signing of Cam Newton, best NFL defensive players, and Andy’s research on every interception and interceptable pass from the 2019 NFL season. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

today's episode of the ryan rossillo podcast on the ringer podcast network is brought to you by state farm just like sports the game of life is unpredictable talk to a state farm agent and get a teammate who can help you navigate the unexpected i did not expect the beaches to be closed again, but I'm kind of not surprised out here in LA County. But then there's a little bit of a pushback that some people may not close the beach now. I don't know. I kind of give up.

I'm just wearing my mask like you should wear your mask. And, you know, that's about all I have on that part of the conversation. Get a teammate who can help you navigate the unexpected. Talk to a State Farm agent today. And shout out to my guys at Raising Cane's. Raising Cane's knows that the best chicken finger meals are made fresh. Their chicken fingers are hand-battered and cooked to order to make each bite as tender and juicy as possible.

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out at one of my favorite places in Colorado. At Raising Canes Chicken Fingers, quality isn't complicated and their menu is proof. Visit RaisingCanes.com to find the location nearest to you. Okay, just want to give you a heads up on what the plan is for the podcast. I think it's just going to be one this week because we're shutting down for a few days. I was trying to get back East, but it doesn't look like I can even fly back now because of the places that I would want to go. I would have to be quarantined and then having to see older family. So I just don't really want to do that either. So I'm going to be, I think just this one this week.

And then with Bill and I, we're going to give it a couple Sundays off and then pick up right before the thing gets started again in Orlando. Just because normally we would have been done right now. We'd be done like this next week, free agency, even though this free agency certainly wasn't what last year's free agency was. And Bill and I, if we don't take like a couple weeks off, we'll have gone, I think, 22 months or something crazy like that because of the overlap and how much the schedule is going to. Because as soon as the NBA is over, it's going to be starting up again like two months later, you know, if everything goes according to plan,

which I'm certainly worried about. So, you know, I don't think Bill likes me that much that he wants to spend 22 months with me every Sunday night. So it's not really that big of a deal. We're just taking a little breather before we gear up for what is going to be what we hope will be a lot of sports. So again, that's the plan. And today's plan is to get real football nerdy with Andy Benoit. He has done a bunch of stuff with us in the past. He's just been hammering away at the video during this downtime. And he has really a ton of cool things, but we want to start talking some Cam Newton with him. But more importantly, this

exercise that he did, he spent hours and hours on this project where he watched every interceptable football of the 2019 season. So not just every interception, every interceptable football. So that means he probably watched every throw by every quarterback and watched them multiple times. So he's come up with some great numbers off of that. So let's just talk some football with Andy Benoit. Okay. Andy Benoit, who has joined us a bunch of times in the past, talking football, NFL analyst. If you saw the note that he sent me, you would be just impressed with that, but he's going to impress you even more because we're going to talk Cam to the Pats. We're going to talk quarterbacks in general and some evolving things that he's noticing

in his film breakdown of the NFL and an unbelievable exercise at the very end having to do with interceptions, which he said he didn't. I could tell he was like, this might be too nerdy for you. And I was like, no, this is amazing. So we'll get to that at the very end. Okay, so Cam Newton on the Patriots is what at this stage of his career? He's in a great opportunity for sure. I thought, Ryan, I was saying on the record months ago

and as recently as weeks ago, I would have been shocked if Bill Belichick signed Cam Newton, because I think in his heart of hearts, Belichick and that staff, they understand, they believe that if you run our offense the way it's designed, we're going to win more games than we lose, a lot more games than we lose. We can out-coach and out-execute the opponent just based on the way we approach the game. So we want a known entity at quarterback. We don't need a playmaker. We need someone that'll get the ball out quickly and on schedule and exactly how we tell them. And stylistically, that's never been Newton's style of play. He is more of a playmaker. He's more of a vertical thrower than underneath thrower. So he doesn't fit New England's passing game, which is why I

thought, okay, I believe the Patriots, they want Brian Hoyer. They're fine with Stidham. I think they'll do that. Now I'm obviously less sure. And I think the one part of this that needs to be entered into the discussion is Cam Newton in the running game and what that means for New England. Because if they go with him, I think they'll lean that way, all things even, then they're going to change the identity of their offense because you signed Cam Newton to change your running game, not your passing game. What was he when we saw the first half of 2018? Because, you know, Norv Turner was quoted recently,

I think it was in Brewer's piece of Sports Illustrated, where we're doing a bit of this, like looking at it after the fact you're like well cam beat him twice it was 2013 2017 um maybe it's an evolving rushing attack that that belichick could be looking at norv turner's like look he's going to end up in new england apparently that's something he told somebody months ago but that was bill also calling norv then there was another theory that i think breer uh presented which I thought was interesting and certainly unique, was that in 2011, Belichick felt like with the delay of time with the CBA negotiation, that teams that could run a quicker pace would be at an advantage, but then somehow Cam is going to do that. So I thought that

might've been a bit of a stretch because of how odd the lead up will be to this year. But I think the biggest Cam fans point to that first half of 2018 where they felt like he was really hitting a stride and commanding an offense a way we hadn't really seen from him before. And sure, and I think that's fair. Cam Newton on his best days looks as good as almost any quarterback in the NFL. And that's the right timeline too, right? I just want to double check with you. Yeah, I mean, I'd have to go back and get nerdy about it and look at my fill notes and say, oh, no, it's actually week six, week seven, right? But, yeah, the general point, yes, he looked good in 2018.

He's had the injuries. Now we don't know what he is. What you touched on there with that 2011 shortened offseason, I think there's something to that in this case. It's going to be very different in terms of results. So I think Bill Belichick's looking around and saying, okay, last year, the 49ers went to the Super Bowl. They're a run-based offense. They had the most exotic run game in the NFL, and they had a pass game that derived strictly from the run game. That's a run-based team in San Francisco. The Ravens were the best team in the AFC for almost all of the season. Obviously, they had the best run game actually in history, statistically.

Tennessee went to the championship behind the league's leading rusher, Derrick Henry. They have a great outside zone smash mouth run game. It's a passing league right now. And the teams that are winning are the teams that have these expanded, well-honed running games because defenses are not attuned to playing the run like they used to be. They're now past defenses. So I think he sees a market opportunity, almost like a market weakness where, okay, the defenses are behind right now with the offenses and against the run. There's been no off season. So we can assume that defense

is what they were last year are likely to be similar or very similar to what they are this year. We don't have a great QB. We don't have very good wide receivers. Let's just run the ball and do something schematically that defenses don't see very often right now. Yeah, I think the simplest answer is he cost a million bucks. Yeah, but there's that too. He's a good bargain, and we've seen Belichick get great bargains before, and it's worked out really well.

He does one-year rentals, even with players that are high achievers. And I think that's also interesting, Ryan, because if you had said, doesn't it feel like the conversation the last few weeks has been, I mean, I heard Newton's like a top-10 MVP candidate now, by the odds or whatever. When was the last time a quarterback was signed at the end of June after being left untouched on the market for several months? And he signed for basically bottom feeder starter

money at most, or maybe very high end backup money. And all of a sudden we're rejoicing and he's an MVP candidate and he, oh, here come the Patriots again. It just seems like there's a lot of enthusiasm around a guy that there was no enthusiasm for a few weeks ago but i i kind of understand it too a little bit because i think they can maybe catch lightning in a bottle with the run game here yeah the patriots get the benefit of the doubt on the acquisition so that's that's part of it we already get that but yeah i i think i'm hesitant for two reasons in that he has been injured a bunch of different ways okay and i feel like there's been a split on cam in the media in that there have been some that have been really protective and

i wouldn't even say i'm i'm critical i just would say you know i don't understand and i've said this about a lot of quarterbacks i don't understand why like a decade's worth of evidence we still pretend there's some other version of the guy like we've got 10 years he's going to miss some throws okay there's gonna like it's for belichick who as you said timing accuracy he started learning really basically i felt like a lot of these route combinations were having brady but also understanding the rules and what they could get away with or it's like if we have these smaller guys on these, these quick kind of pivot routes, like our timing is just going to be down and we're going to keep moving the chains that

way. And that's the best way to approach this. And we don't have to spend a ton of money on these outside guys because we're not really throwing the ball there. And so then to say, okay, cam is going to be able to do that. Like, and again, Belichick has adapted this thing so many different times that clearly he's going to adapt. But that may be getting into your point with some hybrid running thing.

But as I look at that, I look at Cam and go, like many dual-threat quarterbacks, there's a correction. And I've always talked about this. The first two years for Cam, 700 yards from the ground, 14 touchdowns. The second year, 741, eight touchdowns. He'd actually had a pretty good, I mean, if you're still eight years in running for almost 500 yards in a shorter season, that's still pretty good for a dual threat guy. But almost every single

quarterback that was a dual threat guy, there's the correction on it. I mean, I can just go through them. RG3, his first year, he ran for 850. He ran it 120 times on the ground for 815. That was his first year. It was never the same. Kaepernick in the first couple of years where he was like end to end the starter, he had some big yardage seasons back to back in 13 to 14. And that fell off. McNair didn't really play the first two years. Then a six year stretcher was between 400 and 600 plus yards. And then he was basically done at 34. Steve Young somehow kept it going. Vic had been really an outlier. I think Elway's always been a bit overrated because of the

accumulation of the stats, but he was almost only just 200 yards on the ground. McNabb's first six years were good off a cliff. Cunningham was basically done at 31. So as I build up all the evidence, it's asking a lot of anybody, especially with the injuries, to now run some kind of hybrid dual threat thing. Or maybe Belichick goes, look, I only paid him for a year, so I don't really care anyway. Yeah, that's possible. And I think you make great points because that's... Look, Cam Newton's good enough to be an NFL starting quarterback. It's not absolutely. He's probably a top starting QB. Yeah. But there were teams that are probably scared off because he has what appear to be chronic shoulder issues.

He had a foot injury, by the way, shoulder issues with his throwing style. He's very arm driven as a passer. His legs are not a big part of the equation, which is why he has some wow throws and he has his arm strength, but he's going to miss a few every game. What's always been interesting, though, Ryan, about Newton as a dual threat, most of those guys, and I'll just keep it on the ones more recently, because that's really when I've been studying film and they're at the top of everyone's memory, the RG3 guys and more recently than that, their rushing yards often came from scrambling. They drop back to throw and then they take off and scramble for whatever reason. And that's where you walk the fine line of being a playmaker and then just being reckless

and sandlot. And it's a hard line for guys to walk. Guys have gotten better at it lately, but Newton has never been a scrambling QB. That's what the Broncos figured out in the Super Bowl when they beat the Panthers in 2015. After the game, Wade Phillips said, yeah, Newton, he doesn't scramble. So when he dropped back, we blitzed him because nobody wants to blitz the scramblers because if the blitzer doesn't get home, the scrambler runs out to open space. But the Broncos said he doesn't scramble. His rushing yards come by designed run plays, which also means he can't protect himself when he does run.

You can't run quarterback power and slide after you gain three yards. That's not the way the play is going to go. So he's a different style of running QB. It's almost like there's two versions of Newton. There's the passer, drops back, he stays in the pocket. He's his own entity there. And then there's the runner, who's like a really uniquely gifted running back. And there's not a lot of overlap with those. And the question is, does Belichick believe maybe there could be overlap or does Belichick just tell

Newton, Hey, you could scramble. Obviously you've been coached not to why, why the hell not? Why wouldn't you, you're a better runner than everybody go ahead and scramble. Belichick would be knowing he's got this guy for probably one year anyway. Yeah, and I don't think this is necessarily, it just didn't make a ton of sense that they were just going to roll right in with Stidham. I just, I don't think I saw enough from Stidham at Auburn, but the Stidham we saw at Auburn,

it might not have been the right fit. And I don't know what we would have seen for, like, I don't care about his Baylor stats. Everybody puts up Baylor stats. And it wasn't anti-stidham. I just, I was surprised. Like if anybody deserves the benefit of the doubt, it's Belichick, but there've been plenty of quarterbacks that didn't play a ton under

Belichick and his run that we would hear these great things about. Like the idea that Ryan Mallett was this hot commodity who hadn't played like, Oh man, mallet. Like, yeah, I watched him in college. No, it's a, it's a no. Like, I don I watched him in college. No. Like, it's a no. Like, I don't care what he's doing in the preseason or in the practices. And maybe Stidham is going to be good, but it seemed like a reach to just be able to say,

we're just going to go into next year. Because I never, ever have ever believed that Belichick, I don't think many football guys would ever tank to begin with, and certainly wouldn't be Bill. Not a year after Brady's gone. No, I don't think so either. And by the way, the team that everybody accused of tanking last year, Miami, went a 5-11 and they were about a 500 team in the second half of the season.

I think that tanking thing gets blown out of proportion in the NFL. It's not the same sport as the NBA. What really makes it all interesting, though, to me, Ryan, is that they said they like Stidham. We have this offseason season he's not practicing so what happened between March late mid mid to late March when they decided at first we're not signing Newton now what happened between then and now with Stidham that made them decide they do want to sign Cam Newton and maybe they knew all along and as you as you said Albert was reporting uh Newton had been talking to the Patriots for several months. But, you know, I'd also heard the Patriots got a little bit caught off guard when

Tom Brady decided to move on. They'd been talking to him, too, and then it didn't go the way they thought. And all of a sudden they've lost Tom Brady and they didn't realize it was going to happen. I find it hard to believe that they would toy around at the quarterback position and say, hey, we want Cam Newton, who's very different than Stidham. So you want Newton for a reason to say you want him and then kind of just hold on and I will wait and see and get him out. It just doesn't make sense. But I don't see how Stidham could have lost a job in the last few months because it's not like he's practicing and throwing interceptions and they haven't seen him. I wonder if it has to do with Cam's asking price, because if I'm Cam, I probably was

asking for a lot more than a million. I don't know how the incentives play out. So it could have been his asking price. But if there's one lesson from some of these quarterbacks, like Andy Dalton one year, Jameis, there wasn't as much of a market for him. Flacco, I mean, pretty much non-existent. And for Cam to only be a million as we're about to turn into July here, he probably looked at it as going, well, at least if I go there, I'm probably beating out Jared Stidham. That had to be what Cam was thinking of. Yeah, and he's smart enough to know this is a showcase season for him.

And Belichick, normally Ryan, I'd say, well, I don't think you mess around a quarterback, though. I don't think you try to get a bargain at that position. Belichick, I would say, is different, though, because he negotiated with Brady hard for a lot of years. And I heard that Brady maybe got tired of that towards the end and that contributed. Yeah, that's fair to say. Yeah. And so if he's willing to negotiate with the greatest quarterback of all time, he's willing to negotiate hard with anyone.

And that's what the Patriots do. They find the efficiency of the dollars they spend. You mentioned those wide receivers and how they're inside guys and run after catch guys. That's exactly what they are. Those guys are cheaper than the big 6'5 Julio Jones type that line up outside and win one-on-one on the perimeter. So they get cheaper receivers and build a system around them. They don't pay defensive ends. They pay defensive tackles. Tackles are 15% cheaper than defensive ends.

So this is consistent with what New England does financially. They do find these values. And I don't know if there's another team that would do that at the quarterback position like this without having a guy on a rookie deal, of course. Was there anything else that you wanted to talk about off of this and kind of how it transitions into something else that's going on for the other mobile quarterbacks?

Because when I run through that little history lesson on the guys that fall off, there are so many dual threat guys now that, I don't know if dual threat's always the perfect way to explain it, but. Yeah. Like, I'm not, i don't know if dual threat's always the perfect way to explain it but yeah like i i'm not i'm not i don't think lamar might be in a different category than anything we've ever seen maybe other than vic um this this very well could be the norm now though so it may not be that everybody's going to hold up magically but it may be that instead of shying

away from it well that's, this has already evolved, so this isn't even really a good question. So I know that you had more on kind of how the dual threat guys are just becoming a focal point of offenses instead of this addition. Well, yes, because I think what's really interesting about this generation of dual threat QBs and the ones that stand out are obviously Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott. And Watson and Prescott are going to be up for contract soon. So we're going to hear about them every week for the next several months at least and probably a couple years.

But what stands out with those younger QBs is they're willing to still be passers first. The risk with a mobile quarterback is what happens when that QB abandons the play design too quickly. He flees the pocket. He creates pressure for himself by breaking himself down in the pocket. What do you do then? And most systems are not set up to deal with that. The Seahawks have done a tremendous job of catering their system to accommodate Russell Wilson with some of that because Wilson is so uniquely gifted. And Wilson's also matured and has become a better

pocket player over the years. So it can work, but the examples are few and far between when you watch Lamar Jackson on film and you're right. He, his mobility is different than all these other guys. He is the fastest guy since Michael Vick. And that means something. But even with that, he's a patient pocket player. He does not break down passing plays just to get scrambling yards a whole lot. He'll do it quicker than a normal QB because why wouldn't he? He's faster than everybody. But that guy's a good passing quarterback too. He's not just a running QB.

And then Watson as well, I think, shows a lot of encouraging signs there. Where Watson needs to get a little better, he is great in the pocket when he has one read, a defined read, especially if it's deep downfield. When he has multiple reads, his pocket mobility becomes a little inconsistent. So moving within the pocket while reading through the progressions, he needs to become, we're talking just his mobility. He makes his reads fine, but the mechanics and his mobility there in the pocket, that needs work. But I mean, that's a really detailed thing to be talking about. That's, that's, that's a good pocket passing guy, or at least a good foundation as well. We have not seen this before with so many good,

talented mobile QBs who can also beat you from the pocket. We haven't talked in a while then. So I will always like checking in with you because every now and then you give me somebody that we haven't thought about. But who do you believe is the best defensive player in the NFL today? I think it's Aaron Donald. And the other the other argument would be Stefan Gilmore for the reason that that he's truly a playmaking man to man cornerback. And that's that's an unusual combination. Man to man usually means play stopping you're breaking up the ball you're not getting interceptions Gilmore travels with number ones

he's he makes plays on the ball New England builds their whole defense around it I do think Donald's a little more dynamic and obviously the Rams defense is built around Donald and what's interesting Ryan and I think teams around the NFL are starting to notice this. Defensive tackles, not only are they 15% cheaper, and Donald, he's a bad example because he sets a new bar in the market. Without Donald, D tackles are probably 20% cheaper than defensive ends. But I think it's harder to combat a dynamic and dominant defensive tackle than it is a defensive end. With the defensive end, you can slide your protection completely to him. You can chip them. You can keep tight ends in the block. You can roll the pocket. With defensive tackles, you don't have quite as many options available. Plus, your guards are

worse athletes than your tackles. And defenses now line up in ways where it's one-on-one blocking for everyone. They put five defensive linemen up front. Everybody blocks the guy in front of them on the offensive side. And D tackles are more destructive inside with a shorter path to the quarterback. So Donald, because he's the best player defensively, but also because I think he plays one of the most undervalued positions in the NFL. Are we pretty much done with trying to figure out three, four and four, three base stuff? Yeah. Yeah, that stuff gets way, way overblown. It has been for a while, considering 70% of these teams line up in nickel anyway as their base.

I don't know if it's 70 or if it's 80 for some other teams and depending, but I just remember being younger and obsessing over, oh, if they have the right linebackers, 3-4 is way better to stop them. I don't think anybody really brings it up anymore-4 is way better to stop the run. It's like, I don't even, I'm actually, I don't think anybody really brings it up anymore, but it seems absolutely dead with the alignment. The only team that truly plays 3-4 defense,

snap in and snap out, and even they're not probably as pure as what we would have seen 20 years ago, is the Patriots. And the Lions, I guess you could say as well, they're built like the Patriots. The Dolphins are following that model. The Giants probably will follow that model this year under Joe Judge and Patrick Graham at D coordinator.

So I guess there's four teams, but just because you line up with three defensive linemen and what appears to be four linebackers, it's all about how you play your gaps. And almost every team is a one gap defense anymore. It's shoot the gaps, get penetration. Don't clog the gaps like you do in a 3-4 defense. Get up the field.

That's the style of defense across the league now. So the 3-4 was always clogging, and that was always hoping you had one of those special anchors who could play over the center. And first of all, I don't think college is producing enough of those guys, and that's been going on for a while. But whenever I would talk with any of the guys that played in a three four they would say you know we we were allowed to go make the play like we were the ones that were able to go make the play and that's why you'll see certain teams not want to go upfield but i

don't even know if it's about going upfield where it's just making sure you have anyone that can turn and run on the outside and the fact that you're playing a million defensive backs now because everybody's throwing every time and maybe that's why defensive tackles like that's i remember thinking you know corners are so valuable when they change the rules and then i thought the rules were so ridiculous that i'm kind of like well maybe it doesn't matter who you have at corner and then it actually kind of came back around the other way that it's actually with these new rules you need somebody who can just kind of run and stay with somebody without being physical and getting a flag every time so now it's actually i think shifted back to special corners

are worth it because they're not going to get pi all the time and they can kind of shut somebody down where i thought with the passing and the spreading things out those big 300 plus pound defensive tackles it wasn't going to matter because the ball is going to be out so quick but that's that's what you're you're not saying that you're saying that those guys actually besides donald because we get that he's a freak and you have to triple team them basically every play but that those even though rare to find big anchor d tackles you think they are still as disruptive but there's just not as many. Well, yes, to an extent. I think the teams that do need those kind of defensive tackles, truly, that is their foundation.

Those teams we outlined, New England, Detroit, Miami, and the Giants, you could argue like a Lawrence guy for the Patriots is as valuable in their scheme as a, insert, low-level Pro Bowl 4-3 defensive tackle. But really what I'm more getting at when you talk about the Aaron Donalds of the world are these defensive tackles that penetrate. The Fletcher Cox type of guys. Akeem Hicks for the Bears. He's a monster and can probably be great in a 3-4, but he gets penetration. Guys that get in the backfield from the defensive tackle position.

And really, when we're talking about all this stuff, you're pretty much talking about the pass rush. Because as you're saying, it's a nickel pass. So not just the 3-4 alignment. Right, right. So that's what I get what you're saying now. Right. Both interior guys.

Well, yeah, because you're right. Everybody's a 4-2 nickel or a 5-1 nickel sometimes. But I think it's penetrators are what matter in the NFL right now. Get up the field, get penetration. Because as you're saying, the ball's out too quickly. penetrators are what matter in the NFL right now. Get up the field, get penetration, because as you're saying, the ball's out too quickly. So the only way to impact the QB to have any chance of it, because even then it's hard, is to penetrate and get to the QB. So whatever scheme you do it out of, it's not irrelevant, but it's very ancillary. You got to have guys that can penetrate.

And those man corners you mentioned, they go hand in hand with this because that quicker passing game demands man-to-man corners. If the ball's out quickly, it's a five-yard throw. You don't want to be in zone playing seven yards off. And a reminder, we're going to do this crazy interception project with Andy here at the end. But first, Whoop is a fitness wearable that I've been using for the last few months to track my training, sleep, and recovery. And it's been awesome. The key to Whoop is that you wear it all day long and never miss a beat. They have a really smart charging system when their battery pack slides right on top of the strap, so you never have to take it off to charge. It's actually so easy. It charges really quick and it gives you the heads up. It doesn't just go dead on you, you know, so you

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While you're home home enjoy a classic available for delivery today celebrate responsibly miller brewing company milwaukee wisconsin 96 calories and 3.2 carbs per 12 ounces okay give me the offensive system you would most like if you were a gm and you're like hey i want to run what these guys are running what system would you want to go with it would be the shanahan system and i bet you in an honest moment every team except for maybe the handful that have a super mark the eagles might not because carson winston probably views as a super marquee talent the the ravens would view jackson as a unique talent but any team that doesn't have a top five qb would probably say in an honest moment they want the Shanahan offense, which is also very similar to the Sean McVay offense or what the Titans did under Arthur Smith last year,

who was a tremendous offensive coordinator in Tennessee. It's this zone blocking. Every play starts out looking the same. And then what Shanahan has figured out is when you're a run-based offense, and that doesn't just mean let's run those, hand the ball, hand the ball, hand the ball, even though they did that very well in the playoffs. When your passing game comes out of your running game and you're a run-based offense that way,

you get a lot of predictable coverages because the more dimension in the run game that the defense has to handle, the less they can do in coverage. So now your quarterback knows the coverage and he becomes a quicker, more confident decision maker. That's what teams have figured out is it all goes hand in hand. They're not putting the game on the quarterback the same way and running two minute offenses because the system demands that the QB be a puzzle piece. How does a Tannehill happen then? How does

something happen where I understand it's a different system. I understand what you just talked about as far as setting up each play design. But isn't that still kind of crazy, though, that you could have somebody like Tannehill look like he may not be out of a job to putting up these kinds of numbers, getting that kind of extension? Like, how does a Tannehill happen? Because it honestly, I don't think that really happens in other sports. Yeah, that's a good point. I mean, just, all right, so let's put it on Tannehill specifically. Then his issue in Miami was that he coaches didn't feel he was great at

reading the field before the snap and probably therefore he wasn't a very confident passer sometimes after the snap. And reading the entire field, the more he read, the less confident he was. When you get in those outside zone schemes and it's play action, very, very often you're just reading half the field, and it's almost a high-low read. You run play action, one guy's kind of deep, one guy's kind of shallow, and you throw according to where the defender between those guys is located. So it's simpler either-or type of reads for the QB, for one.

And then for two, the system's also set up where you isolate defenders. So I got to go to Shanahan's offense once a couple years ago and learn his system very basically. And the way he thinks about this stuff is who's your weakest defender, preferably a linebacker. We're talking weakest pass defender. Who's your weakest linebacker? Okay, that's the guy. Now we're going to call every play that puts him in a bind. Any play that has two guys going through that linebacker's zone, that's what we're running

until you figure out how to correct it with that linebacker or do something else. And that's kind of the foundation of the offense. So Ryan Tannehill gets a play call, and I'm sure they're not calling in saying, all right, the linebacker on this play is insert Joe Blow. But it's an overall thought process. It's a lot of either-or decisions based off a specific defender. So you're not reading the whole defense a lot of time. You're reading one or two guys. Okay, final thing.

And you said this is for the super nerdy, and you were afraid there may only be 30% of the audience here that would even want to hear this. But as soon as I saw what you did, I was like, we've got to share this. So I think people will like this. I think people will like this. Last year, the NFL, there were 626 interceptable balls.

So not interceptions. Correct, yeah. But 626 interceptable balls. And you watched all of them five times and talked to every coach involved in them? I did. I mean, the obvious ones you got to skip for talking to the coaches. It was OK. But but any of the blurry ones I did get in touch with every coordinator or head coach or QB coach and figured out from the offensive side. And they were all everyone was really interested in the exercise. So it was a great learning process and good information. And and yeah, I came away with a bunch of pages of that's where I I get super nerdy is, all right, this coverage rotation led to this many interceptions. Before we do that, before we do that, give me the thing that you think is the most significant

that you learned from this process. Yeah, so, all right, man or zone? Which one has more interceptions? And the common thinking is it's zone coverage because that has defenders with their eyes on the ball rather than their eyes on their man. And I think there's some validity to that. Forty-five percent of man coverage or of interception plays, though, did come out of a man coverage concept, either straight man-to-man or a match zone where you start out in zone but it becomes man,

which is how a lot of zones play out anymore. So it's a block closer to a 50-50 split than you would guess. zone, where you start out in zone, but it becomes man, which is how a lot of zones play out anymore. So it's a block closer to a 50-50 split than you would guess. However, half of the man coverage interceptions, or almost half of them, were made by a defender who was not in a specific man assignment. So a free safety in man coverage, or a free defender and man coverage. So zone defenders are still getting the interception, so to speak, but a lot more of them are coming out of man concepts or match coverage concepts. Is there any way, was there any way to decipher how often an interceptable ball was because of a

freelancing play by defensive back? That's a good question. You could figure out. Yeah, there was. So I did chart any coverage that had what I call a relevant wrinkle. So what are the regular rules of the coverage? And then did somebody play the coverage differently within the quarterback's line of sight or within the route combination?

Did it matter that they played it differently? And some of it could be simple things like like they dropped an eighth guy to one side of the field in coverage or the strong safety came from the strong side instead of the weak side like usually does but answer your question one in three of those interception plays uh came out of a wrinkle in the coverage so one third of interception plays, the coverage was played differently than the way it's typically designed. Oh, okay.

So you're saying a third were trying, them just trying to disguise something pre-snap, correct? Correct. Or the guy, as you said, freelance, or the guy kind of went and did his own thing with it for whatever reason. A lot of freelance though has a method to the madness, but yes. Okay. Now I did cut you off though has a method to the madness, but yes.

Okay. Now I did cut you off as you were about to get really nerdy here. So why don't you just go ahead and you can take the floor and share the rest of the, uh, the exercise. How long did this take by the way? Uh, this took a lot. I, it was the first time I've done something like this. So I, I, every inefficiency possible was in play and i kind of knew i was taking the scenic route because we have a coronavirus opportunity um it probably took four to five hundred hours i would say but the nerdiest thing so all right let me see what else i printed some of it off um the pat all right the pass rush is a lot more impactful in man coverage than zone coverage and a big reason for that is just because man coverages tend to have more blitz concepts with it. But when you get to zone

coverage and there are two deep safeties, so cover two, cover six, the pass rush factors in on about 50% of the interception plays out of those coverages. When you get to single high zone coverage, cover three, which is what the Seahawks play a lot of the Niners or the Jaguars, the pass rush only factors in on 30% of those plays. Even though we hear all the time, those teams are built on their four man rush. And that surprised a lot of coaches. A few coaches were not surprised by that because they said, well, yeah, if there's two deep safeties, the quarterback has to hold the ball longer. If's one deep it's a pretty obvious read but we got into those kind of things what variations of zone coverage

related to the pass rush result in turnovers that's that's pretty fascinating i guess i'm sitting back trying to think like what would what would the follow-up be because you know it's always been a chicken or the egg type of thing do you feel stronger about the importance of the back end versus pressure with your well i mean we can always talk about the front four but that's that's like in a best case scenario do you feel differently or do you feel stronger about what's more important to try to slow down some of this passing then? Well, I'm probably a little bigger on man coverage than I was before. Overall, the pass rush factored in on 60% of interception plays.

So more than half, it's a pass rush. You have to have a pass rush no matter what you're doing. The man coverage, the teams that commit to it have a lot of success. The guys that made plays out of man coverage, that got the tips on the interceptions or got the picks themselves, about half of them were Pro Bowl caliber players. So if you're going to play man coverage, you need star players in order to do it.

If you're going to be a zone defense, then you still need the passers, even though the numbers say, well, it might not be as important in cover three. There were only eight cases all season long, eight total plays where a zone defender tipped a ball and it was intercepted by another zone defender. So it's not like having all these zone guys downfield is making everything happen. You still have to impact the QB in some way to make a bad throw. And also, Ryan, I probably should note, quarterbacks, they had a culpability on 92% of interceptions

against zone coverage. So 9 out of 10 interceptions that happened. Except for Eli Manning, though. Let's just be fair. You know, Manning had two or three that were, and I like Eli Manning. Winston and Manning had some interesting ones because he had two or three that were so blatantly obvious, you wonder what you're missing. It's so obvious, it's hard to- You know what?

That's what I want to follow up on. And I make that Manning joke because I think when you're the quarterback and you're in New york like they say oh you know every year it felt like with all of his picks like a half of them were tipped you're like okay but the other guys are getting tip balls too here guys like he's not eli's not the only one that's ever throwing tip interceptions who who threw the most interceptable balls where you just were like, I can't, I have no idea what this guy is looking at. Winston by a mile. I was in touch with people around Jameis Winston continuously because what about this one? What happened on this one?

How about that one? And I'm not picking on Winston. I mean, I like Winston. I've liked him a long time. But it was what was really, and this was true with most of these guys, but Winston, there was a really clean diversity between bad reads, bad throws. Defense did make some plays. I had Winston at 43 interceptable balls overall, and I think he was culpable or shared responsibility on about 30 of them, I want to say. The next highest guy for interceptable balls was Phillip Rivers at 30. So he was 13 behind Winston.

But there were some, Ryan, on those Winston throws where it looked like it had to be something else, misread or a defensive wrinkle, and it was just an inaccurate throw. So the throw was so inaccurate, you couldn't even tell it was inaccurate. It had no relevance. I don't mean to pile on Jameis Winston because he does some great things as well, but his turnovers were a major problem last year.

Yeah, that was you being really nice. Anybody else on the bad side of it, and then we'll finish up with who was the best. Yeah, Rivers on the bad side of it, and his bad were pretty bad as well. What stood out about Rivers, and this is why the Chargers, I think, let him go. When I say I think, I'm very confident this is why the Chargers let him go. They don't think his pocket mobility is the same. So when his pocket gets messy, he doesn't move in a messy pocket the same way he

used to. He's become more dependent on his offensive line. He's got a good one in Indy now, so maybe he'll bounce back this year. But Rivers had, so I'm looking now, 30 interception plays, culpable on 22 of them. It was mostly all his fault on 19 of them. But on 24 of them, there was a pass rush impact. So 75, 80% or so for Rivers on interception plays. And his were really bad, and he made some poor decisions. Okay, give me somebody who just almost every time is making the right read. Well, in terms of interceptions, all right, who would you guess would have the best? Because this guy who did finish number one for fewest interception plays,

there were three that were pretty comfortably down on their own at the bottom of the league. Who would you, I'm not going to make you guess all three, but. No, I'm going to say because Mahomes is a little looser this year that he's not one of the three, even though I think he's the best quarterback. Yeah, correct. Mahomes is going to have five or six every year. That's just the cost of doing business. You can live with his. Give me Brady, Wilson, and I think Lamar had a few throws out there that he probably got away with. So I'll give you two or three guesses. I'm not going to guess Lamar had a few throws out there that he probably got away with. So I'll give you two or three guesses.

I'm not going to guess Lamar. Yeah, okay. And you're smart not to. Lamar was very good. Brady was 16th. He was right in the middle of the pack for all of his stuff. Oh, he was. God.

And some of his bad ones were bad, too. I did have to look into some of his and ask around because he was – but we're watching everyone's bad plays, so grain of salt. Wilson was in the bottom. Russell Wilson, uh, 31st or second best overall. He had just one interception play against zone coverage. He had eight all season long. He was at fault on five of them. Uh, another guy who was down there with Wilson was Tannehill. We talked about him, but he didn't have the same number of starts as Wilson. And then the guy who was best in the league, Lamar, by the way, Lamar went, I think it was week five to the end of the season where he had zero interceptable balls. He just didn't throw them mid season. He had two in the playoffs. He

had three of us Pittsburgh early on. Lamar Jackson did not have interceptions thrown last year or even chances at it. The guy that was the best was Derek Carr for the Raiders which gets into the philosophical question of do you want a conservative QB or do you want a playmaker because the Raiders I'm sure there are times and we can it's obvious there are times that they want Carr to be more aggressive than he is and it drives John Gruden crazy yeah but see this is great for him still right yeah because there are there are stat lines for car where if you don't watch you go oh wait and i'm talking like basic stat lines the car you're like what's so bad about this and then i know on some of the next gen stats because i'll just dig

through those every now and then and he'll be ranked so poorly in some of those like yards to the stick or something and that was kind of the big alex smith thing that was a problem um i think it was for san francisco when he was there where you know they kicked a million field goals and how how many yards he was thrown on third down to get this to get the conversion it was like really bad and i would bring these things up but you know whatever i mean people ended up really liking alex smith because he was such a nice guy um but and by the way the chiefs had issues and the redskins had issues with alex smith for those reasons too you're 100 right about smith people that argue the alex smith part i just i don't i

don't get you're like okay i got it you know what i mean like um yeah well i guess everybody wants to be nice now because of you know the injury was so bad and everybody's likes likes him as a guy so much and i'm fine with that but when you lose your job a couple times and there are these third down stats that show you this stuff and then he actually had like alex smith had a weird stretch where he actually was like connecting on some deep balls where it was almost this outlier for him. It was like, okay. But back to the original point, though, is growing up,

hey, no interceptions, no interceptions, that's great. You can be so preventative interception-wise that you're actually as bad as somebody turning the football over. And I think that's what you have there with Carr. So that's really interesting. Yeah, I think that's fair. There is no stat, and I don't think there ever will be, there's no stat for balls that should be thrown and are not thrown. And next to turnovers, next to interceptions, that's the thing coaches hate the most, are balls that are not thrown. Or

there's no stat, run after catch can maybe capture it, sort of, but not fully. There's really no stat that shows balls that were thrown but could have been thrown more aggressively downfield or balls that were thrown but were not perfect or conservative throws so there wasn't a lot of meat left on the bone, let's put it that way. That's the stuff that only film can show. There's no advanced metrics to capture it. And that's where you get into the Derek Carr philosophy and debates. And this will be really interesting this year because they drafted some big time receivers for him, speed guys. They

obviously want to lift the defense and you don't lift the defense to throw over the top. I mean, you'll take, you'll do that too, but really you lift the defense to throw at the intermediate level, which is what Oakland now Las Vegas's passing game was built around Darren Waller their pro bowl tight end he's their intermediate receiver on all their play action stuff or a lot of it those are the balls are trying to get more open for Carr yeah and that just adds again to Brady's unimpressive run of numbers in 2019 I would think at least at that, on the decision part of it, he would still be higher up because he's so middle of the pack and regressing on so many other numbers.

Even that, for him, is a little surprising. Wilson, to me, is... I don't know. I've run out of great things to say about Wilson, the football player. I have come... I've evolved with Russell Wilson. I think he's evolved as well.

I like him more now than I used to because he's become a better player than he used to be. Well, in the beginning, he didn't throw as much. They were winning because they were with defense, and it didn't really matter. But I think it's the regular stats. It's the winning thing. But I also just think there's really not that many guys,

as I say, like in third and seven and things break down. I trust him probably as much as anyone, not Neymah Holmes. I would agree with you on that. Because Wilson, I thought, fell on the wrong end of this meat left on the bone discussion for a lot of years. The Seahawks have kind of adjusted things. They're a little bit more run past balance in terms of how they line up and some of the stuff they call. It plays to Wilson's mobility. And I remember that playoff game against Green Bay, watching it on TV last year and then watching

the film, you know, in Madden, and this is years ago in Madden where the game, it was, there's too much of an advantage to being a mobile QB. So you just drop back, call a deep pass and then turn on the running QB and run around. And that's how people often played Madden. That's how Wilson played in that Packers game. And it almost got him the victory. I mean, that's what brought them back against Green Bay. And I don't think there's another QB in the league who could have played like that snap after snap in a playoff game. I'm not saying you want Wilson doing that all year,

but you can ride that guy differently than other QBs. He is one of the best when it comes to talking football. He is at Andy underscore Benoit. That's B-E-N-O-I-T. And it was good to catch up with you again, man. Great work on all this stuff. Yeah, I appreciate you, Ryan. Thanks. Shout out to Kyle.

And I think that's pretty much it, Kyle. We will talk again soon. Thank you.