The Ryen Russillo Podcast - Conference Championships: Eye Test, Stats, and Trends. Plus, Why It’s So Hard to Make NBA Trades, Deadline Teams, and Two Favorites in the West With John Hollinger.

Episode Date: January 27, 2023

Russillo previews the NFL Conference Championships with stats, historical evidence, and betting trends before making his picks (0:44). Then Ryen is joined by The Athletic’s John Hollinger to discuss why NBA trades take so long to manifest, the toughest trades John had to make during his time with the Grizzlies, whether the Hawks would ever trade Trae Young in season, two co-favorites in the West, whether the Warriors should trade one of their young lottery players, and more (15:24). Finally Ryen and Kyle give out their favorite NFL bets for Round 3 (43:59) and answer some listener-submitted Life Advice questions (45:23). Host: Ryen Russillo Guest: John Hollinger Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

today on the ryan russo podcast we go through all the numbers betting trends and the picks for your conference championship games a lot of stuff from there not sure how relevant any of it will be john hollinger on the nba trade deadline. Would you ever move Trey in season? Will Golden State pivot on some of the young guys and try to add a bunch of other teams we get to as well? And we have our picks contest that continues. It's getting contested. A lot of heat between the guys on the show on this one.

So I don't know if it's going to ruin the friendship vibes and life advice. Enjoy the weekend. This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. Winter is here, so be prepared and get almost anything delivered with Uber Eats. What do I mean by almost anything? Well, you can't get a ski slope,

but dish soap, definitely doable. Sunshine, that's no. A bottle of wine, yeah. And a snow day, again, no. But blueberry muffins with the delicious crumb topping, total yes. Get almost, almost anything delivered with Uber Eats. Order now. Alcohol and select markets. Product

availability may vary by region. See app for details. Let's preview the conference championship games, the NFL this weekend. I'm going to start with kind of the headlines, jump into some of the numbers and take a look at some of the betting trends. Then we'll give you the picks and picks against the spread. Alright, so here we go. These four teams

are in a heater. This is an unbelievable stretch for these four teams, and it's kind of cool, too. I mean, it's always kind of nice when you get the little underdog, and I always kind of joke about the underdog with the NCAA tournament. It's like everybody loves it until your final four. You're like, I don't want to watch that team play, and this is what we have right now. The past 10 weeks, these four teams have combined for a 34-3 record. San Francisco's 12 straight. Philadelphia's 7-0 with Hurts as the starter. Kansas City 11-1 with that one loss at Cincinnati. And Cincinnati, since the 0-2 start, 14-2 with 10 straight as well.

All right? This is the Niners' third NSC championship game in four years. And when you consider the quarterbacks, I just don't want to hear it. Even if they lose this weekend, I don't want to hear anything negative about Shanahan. I mean, he's going to get fired eventually because that's just what happens in this job for the most part, except for the rarest of exceptions. But I don't want to hear like, oh, is he really that dude? They'd be like, this is insane what this team has put together. And it's almost like we've lost track of how hot all of these teams have been. Certainly not you for the fan bases that are on it, but I think there's even times with San Francisco

where I've been like, wait, how long has it been since they've lost a football game? Kansas City on the other side hosting their fifth straight AFC title game, which also feels like, oh yeah, that's right. Because the first time I had read that, I'm going through it. I'm like, yeah, that's true.

Mahomes is basically turning into 20-teens LeBron. So we start with the NFC game, Niners at Philadelphia. The 49ers have gone 27 straight games without allowing a rusher over 70 yards. Now, going back to week two of 2021, Hertz had 82 yards on the ground against the Niners. I don't really think that means anything. It was a completely different Hertz then. I think a different offensive system.

It took me probably a little longer than it should have with Hurts this season, but eventually it just, maybe it was the Titans game where I go, he's just really good. Like there was just way more buy-in. And again, as you know, listen to me long enough,

I'm just a little stubborn when it comes to certain things because I think we actually lose our minds quicker with the way, like the same thing with Purdy. Like, I don't know, maybe it all works out. Maybe he's a starter for a a bunch of years but just because they've gone on this run and they're playing in title game again I'm not going to say yep they're good they've got the guy for the next decade I'm not sure yet so when you look at Hurts in his rushing

game last week he had 34 yards on nine carries I don't know that he was in a real hurry to run. It also wasn't necessary because the Eagles are just that much better than the Giants. So I'm not sure what to take from that. Again, the week two, going back two seasons doesn't mean much. But this does mean something because the Niners, if you're trying to find some kind of weakness in this defense, they're 19th in the NFL against QB runs. Success rate, by the way, not just yards. The yardage number is a little bit better,B runs success rate by the way not just yards the yardage number

is a little bit better but the success rate accounts for some different things Hurts did say this week that he's not 100% which I think is a little surprising so when I think of Hurts he's like the anti-Big Ben like Roethlisberger I think one point like there's been multiple medical diagnosis where he self-diagnosed something. I think he said one time on a sideline report, he's like, yeah, 104 fever today. What's up? All right, third down. Let's go.

So Hurts doesn't give off any of those Big Ben vibes and exaggerating every fucking injury. But if he's not 100%, does that cancel out some of the issues that we think would be an advantage for Philadelphia? Looking at Philly's defense, we know personnel-wise it's stacked, but a really important part of this is the additions they've had roster-wise to that front. And since week 11, since Linval Joseph entered the fray here, Philadelphia, which statistically at times looked pretty bad on paper against the rush, is top three now.

So if you look at some of the season overall stuff, and it can all be misleading, if you're looking at weeks one through 18 and the averages are going, oh, maybe this team's great, maybe there's a weakness here, some of the more recent weighted stuff, especially if there's a personnel change or a team is healthier again, it can mean way more than the overall stats. Another number that we brought up last week for San Francisco was that Purdy, since taking over, San Francisco had given him 22 drives and plus territory, which was so far and ahead of number two Jacksonville. I think it was nine more possessions there. However, there's also a number that tells you Purdy's doing really good since he's taken over on the longer drives.

Any drive for San Francisco starting 70 or more yards away, so 30 or back, San Francisco is actually number one in the NFL in points per possession on these drives at 2.67. So it's not just Purdy and plus territory. There are moments in games where I don't think he looks all that great, but at the same time,

I think maybe the most important factor is he just doesn't look scared. I think he deals with getting his ass kicked every now and then a little bit better than somebody else with less experience or as limited experience as Purdy has had. Here's a number that kind of cancels itself out again. Shanahan. What do we know about him? He's going to run

a lot of free-step motion. They run a lot of it, and Purdy is actually number one in yards per attempt, a pre-stab motion. But Philadelphia is number one in the NFL on defense against the opposing quarterbacks when it comes to QBR in the pre-stab motion. So, look, it sounds kind of complicated. It sounds kind of cool.

That's just something to say. Whatever. Throwing it in there. If I'm just looking at watching the two teams and how they match up from all the games that you watch over the course of the season, the Niners secondary against two really good receivers in A.J. Brown and Devontae Smith and Dallas Goddard,

tight end as well. I think that might be the issue. That's kind of where I'm leaning. The overall part of this is Hurts versus Purdy. I went through the last 10 conference championship games. It was like, how often did the kind of lesser quarterback, like the understood lesser quarterback, beat the established guy?

I mean, there's just a lot of stuff, if you go back through it, where I don't know that it tells much of a story. Like, I was trying to find something that was really significant or some kind of trend. You know, if you look at last year's matchup, Stafford was better than Garoppolo. I think we all would have agreed. Burrow, Mahomes. Burrow wins it, but it's not some massive disparity.

Mahomes, Allen. Mahomes still better. Brady, Rogers. Brady better. I can just keep going through it, looking for it. Maybe Goff beating Breeze in 18, but Hertz isn't Breeze and is Purdy Goff. I don't know. There really wasn't much there a Foles Keenum matchup uh Cam that year was better than Carson Palmer that was like a really incredible year for Cam that was essentially an outlier on his career um Kaepernick

beating Matt Ryan 10 years ago so I don't know that there's something as similar, especially when you think about how well services have been doing, where you go, okay, who's Purdy's comp? And is there anything in these last 20 matchups that would match this where you'd think, hey, and there really didn't. It felt like I wrote it all down and now I'm making you listen to it. So let's keep moving on. All right.

So that's kind of the statistical breakdown of some of that stuff. We go to the AFC championship game, Cincinnati at KC. Cincy, as we all know, has won the last three in this matchup. Jamar Chase, who's my favorite wide receiver in the NFL. You can have everybody else. I know I might be wrong, but I don't care. 24 receptions on 29 targets, four touchdowns. That's 417 yards in his last three matchups against Kansas City.

Now, the bulk of this was the end of the regular season in 21, where he went 11 for 266 and three touchdowns. And then when they met in the playoffs not that much later, it was only six for 54. But that's still, I know it skews it a bit because of that one game, but he's a problem, right? And I think even though his numbers weren't eye-catching against Buffalo, you could see that once he was established,

Cincinnati was really comfortable with what they were able to do offensively, even if Buffalo was going to adjust to however they wanted to cover him with a second guy. The bigger headline of this entire thing is the Mahomes injury. Full participant at practice on Wednesday and Thursday. By the time you listen to this, we will not know the Friday practice situation, but it sounds like he's good to go. The Michelle Steele video ESPN reporter that I retweeted showed him walking fine.

But again, that was an oppressor. So who knows? But then you look back and you look at, OK, does this mean that Mahomes is going to be in the pocket a lot? Well, that's not a problem because he has the number one QBR in the NFL inside of the pocket. When you look at Mahomes against Cincinnati and you think about these three losses, what's happening? Well, he has two insane games and then one bad one. And that was the playoff game where we had the two picks and they were awful. The first pick was really early in

the possession and it gave Cincinnati great field position, 27-yard touchdown, and the other one's a deep shot in overtime. So there you go. I mean, two picks you can't have in that moment. But if you look at Mahomes, he really killed it in two of the games, so it's not really on him. Although Cincinnati is doing a good job

of limiting his yardage in the air. 2.52 per game, throwing the football against this defense. And this is somebody who led the NFL in yards per game this season at 309 and was fifth last season at 284. So whatever it is that Cincinnati does against Mahomes, they're able to limit him a little bit more. The problem is, I mean, it's pretty simple here.

The defense for Kansas City is allowed 29 points per game against the Bengals in this matchup. Another number that I think is very concerning for Chiefs fans, if you look at Cincinnati's defense in the red zone, they're really good. The red zone touchdown percentage, Cincinnati's fifth, fifth best. Kansas City's 31st, second worst in the NFL. That's a problem, and I think it feels like the eye test of watching these two teams play defensively. It's just weird for me and the Chiefs on defense. I like what they did.

I like that they wanted to turn it over, bring in younger guys. You'd probably rather be young and inexperienced before you get too old. It was like they were preparing for this, and some of the personnel I really like, but the numbers just haven't been there for them. That's been the bigger issue, I think, than anything other than the Mahomes picks in that one game. For the most part, he's done well bigger issue, I think, than anything other than the Mahomes picks in that one game. For the most part, he's done well on the QBR stuff, but they've limited him somewhat.

Okay, another thing that I feel like now is completely being overlooked because of Mahomes' ankle injury is the Cincinnati O-line problems, I guess, are just done now. We're not going to worry about them. I am guilty of it as well.

Could it be fool's gold a bit on this? You know, I guess Baltimore didn't look that great. Against Buffalo, it was just awesome. Maybe again, this all kind of speaks to Buffalo and that pass rush that was non-existent post Vaughn Miller. So I don't know if that is going to be a problem for this one. We know

that Spagnuolo, whenever he gets into trouble, whenever he thinks he needs something, he's going to send pressure. The problem is I think Burrow handles it as well as anybody out there, whether it's a number that backs it up or just his composure throughout all of it. And he was 7-9 on third downs in their last matchup.

So the O-line part of it, we could all be now overlooking after obsessing about it just a week ago. All right, let's talk betting trends, and then we'll give you the picks. Let's look at the refs. In the NFC Championship game, this stuff is pretty interesting here.

You guys want crew chief names? It's probably going to get you excited, right? All right. In the NFC, John Hussey, his third fewest flags for his crew in 2022. All right. And this is a Niners team that was second highest in holding, offensive holding,

and Philadelphia was the third most. All right. So those are the number two and three teams called for holding, and Philadelphia was the third most. Those are the number two and three teams called for holding, and they're going in with a crew that doesn't throw the flag. Only two crews threw less flags than John Hussey's. Now, on the AFC side of it, we get a little Ron Torbert,

so let's get going. Twelve flags per game, that's the fifth fewest. So both of these games have crews that don't like to throw the flag which i think is what we all want tim hasselbeck who's really good and joined us earlier this week said from what he could see over the course of the playoffs it felt a lot like the refs were letting them play all over the place um there's another number that would back that up somewhat uh specifically when i think about the secondary for the niners against the e, if they let them play, then maybe that diminishes an advantage

that I think that the Eagles clearly have personnel-wise because Torbert's crew threw 33 total flags for defensive pass interference, illegal contact, and defensive holding. That's the third lowest. All right, so let's keep this moving here. Kansas City is 7-11 against the spread this season. 11 losses are the most by a team entering the conference championship game in the Super Bowl era.

Last betting trend that we have for you. Playoff dogs right now, 6-4 against the spread, so not much there. The under was 4-0 last week. So you wonder if the lack of flags being thrown in general and with two crews like that, if the unders are in play, and if maybe there's just some kind of correction with Cincinnati and Kansas City, which I think it was at 48 this morning on FanDuel, something to play there.

All right, so the unders are 4-0 last week, but the totals are 5-5 in the playoffs so far, so not much there. Here are the picks. Give me Philadelphia minus 2.5. Even though my gut is going with San Francisco in this run, I can't take Purdy on the road at Philadelphia, but if Hurts is not 100%

and not taking advantage of where the Niners lack and some of that defensive stuff holding up against QB runs, then this game, we're going to see it pretty quickly, unless we get some of those runs where it's like, I don't care. Super Bowl appearance is on the line. But Purdy on the road against Hertz in Philadelphia,

the brain tells me just don't make this complicated. Philadelphia minus two and a half, and give me Cincinnati plus one and a half on the road in Kansas City to do it one more time. If you've been watching the NFL playoffs from the sidelines, there's still time to get in the game with FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook. New customers bet this Sunday's conference championship games

with $150 in bonus bets guaranteed when you place your first $5 bet. Just sign up with the promo code Ryan, R-Y-E-N. FanDuel has all your favorite bets from the money line to point spreads to player props. Plus, you can even combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same-game parlay. We give our picks out for this week right before Life Advice. So, football

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We're excited to do this. Just talk some hoops. Obviously, leading up to trade deadline from The Athletic and the Hollinger and Duncan podcast. It's John Hollinger.

What's up? How you doing? Thanks for having me on the show. I'm good. I know that was tough to kind of get you because I imagine it's been kind of a tough few months since ESPN's removed PER from its stat sorting.

Have you noticed this? Oh, I did! I did not notice that. It's gone. Well. How do you feel? It took a decade, but okay. It's gone. So if you go to advanced stats,

I don't even have it in there anymore. And then you used to be able to kind of sort it. Because I always liked, you know, and John's the inventor of PER. And as soon as somebody invents something, then it takes some time for people to go, this is stupid. And it's just the evolution of how things work.

But I always liked it that at the extremes, like it did tell a story. And as you've admitted, yeah, there's flaws in it, just like everything else. And it was funny because as I was looking through it, I was prepping this morning for this. I found some Bleacher Report article, just savage. It just hated you so much. It was from like 10 years ago. So 10 years ago, Bleacher Report, I wouldn't exactly put up there with ron chernow but i it was basically saying like per has no way to calculate

heart and will i'm like i don't remember hollander saying that it did yes so here we are it's gone it still exists on basketball reference but espnPN was like, okay, enough of this. So, all right, now that we have that out of the way. Okay. Let's talk about trades. You worked for the Grizzlies for a bunch of years in the front office. Do trades need to be this complicated? Does it really need, and thank God for the deadline or nothing would ever get done. But why is it so rare for a front office to just go, hey, this is kind of what we want to do.

Can we do this? As if waiting around gets you that magical second rounder that turns into 400 grand five years later. I just think there's a lot of time spent, excessively so, on maneuvering for stuff that doesn't actually happen. And you could have just added the better player maybe a month before the deadline. There's a little of that i think what what is more common is that teams are just generally uncertain about where they are and what they have and want more certainty just about what they have

and what they need um because it's rarely been the case where oh we were having this discussion in december and then like on deadline day they came in with another second so then we agreed to it like i'm i'm trying to remember where that where that happened there i mean there was one case where we got a first at the last minute for somebody and then i other otherwise though, I haven't really, like, that hasn't really been the pattern to me. It's more getting teams to engage at all, just because they're not, they're not like mentally ready yet to, to go to that spot because they, they aren't as sure about where, where their team is and where it stands in the hierarchy yet. And I think I actually wrote about this for The Athletic today, that this muddle in the West between three and 13 is very unhelpful for that, where you have teams like, well, we could be in the lottery or we could have home court advantage for the first round.

I don't think that that helps move trade talks along. It generally is easier to do trades when everyone kind of knows where they stand and knows what they're trying to do. Everyone knows who's a buyer, who's a seller, and that has made things easier. What's the toughest trade that you had to get done for Memphis? In terms of just when you weren't sure kind of speaking to what would you because you're right like all the whispers are this deadline and I see what you're saying I

never liked it by the way just so I can tell you I never like to say like hey it's going to be really quiet because I know there's so much that I don't know but because of all of these teams especially a lot of teams being like man man, it'd be kind of nice to print some playoff checks here. So maybe we're not selling. There's all these buyers.

There's not that many sellers. So, you know, maybe it speaks to kind of one of the experiences you had where Memphis, although you guys had it rolling, but you knew you weren't like title favorites or anything like that. So all of those dynamics going into,

we should probably do this. Do we want to do it? It's not going to be happy with the fan base. Like what's the most complicated thing you had to put together? So probably the year, the year that Marc Gasol broke his foot. And so, which happened like two weeks before the trade deadline,

maybe even the week before the trade deadline, where we immediately went from like, from like, okay, we're pushing, you know, we're trying to make another run here to like, okay,

this year's over, you know? And so then we had, we had some players who were going to be free agents. And we had another situation where we're getting calls on a guy and we had turned them down. And then we had to come back and be like, well, actually, we're listening now. So probably having to pivot to that. now um so uh probably having to pivot to that and then so we we traded courtney lee who was an expiring contract and we got a bunch of second round picks because we but because we also had to like this was again pretty pretty late in the process had to swing in miami who we knew was

trying to get under the tax and have been calling us about maybe doing some things and so just like so it was a three-team deal so that was wild. And then, but the thing that really put it over the top was the Clippers had been talking to us about Jeff Green, but they hadn't really offered anything. So it was just like, yeah, whatever, that's not going to happen. And then they called us 10 minutes before the trade deadline. And we're like, okay, we're willing to do a first with these protections. And we can't negotiate on it because Doc is inside the church for the funeral for Monty Williams' wife, which I don't know if you remember that whole tragic thing. But so like the funeral was actually going on during the trade deadline. And there were a bunch of NBA people inside the church with no access to their phones, including Doc Rivers, who was the GM of the Clippers at the time.

And so like there's this whole thing. We had to get in touch with the league office like eight minutes before the trade deadline. We basically had to say yes right away or the trade deadline was going to run out. And it was a surprise to us because we didn't think anything was going to happen with Jeff. So that was probably the wildest one.

Wow. Yeah. I guess I feel like a lot of times when i'll hear the price the prices are always really high and then those are never really the prices and it's everybody it's almost kind of like there have been trades in the past or sometimes like i would hear teams say like well daryl morey messes it up because he does this and he just and you're like okay well that's unfair about daryl because other people do it as well um but like the gobert price has screwed up a trade because it's now it's like, well, now I want that. It's like, you know, I don't know if

anyone's ever going to get that again. Seriously, like when you look at the price paid for stars and that he's not even that guy and then there's that kind of price. It's like, well, if you're waiting around for that price for your guy that may be even better than Gobert, I don't know that you're necessarily even going to go ahead and get it. So I do think some of the pricing stuff can be kind of a waste of time

where like when I look at Jay Crowder with Phoenix, why would you first of all, I don't understand how it got to this point and Cam Johnson coming back is a big deal, sort of a weird loss last night, especially with not just going out and it doesn't really matter until Booker's back, but like I still have faith in a healthy Phoenix,

but at the same time, like why would you continue to allow your rotation to be exposed by this by missing a guy who started major play whatever you think of Jay Crowder and I think he's maybe a little overrated a guy that's played real minutes real rotational minutes for teams that are good in the playoffs so I don't understand how this was allowed to happen and why we're going to probably go up until the last day before he's actually moved I think the biggest issue for Phoenix was that they needed to get a player back as opposed to getting picks back.

Like where Phoenix is, like, oh, picks, great. Like, no, actually, we need another player, right? Like we need to trade Jay Crowder for Jay Crowder. Like that essentially was the problem. And I think why it was hard for them to do a deal. I think there are probably other some structural issues with the whole sarger thing that probably slowed them down too but i think i think the main thing was just it wasn't just a case of okay we're selling give us a pick and and some dead money and we'll call it good because that that doesn't really advance

the ball for phoenix what they really need to do is trade jay crowder for for another player now cam johnson's back dario sarge has played a lot better lately so maybe you say now okay now we can trade jay crowder for a guard now maybe now maybe there's more stuff to do but when you're trying to trade jay crowder against somebody who plays the same position like who are you trading with right like who's if you did if you if you had that guy you wouldn't need to trade for jay crowder so i i think think that was the thing that really held things up on Phoenix's end. I will say, I mean, having tried to do this a couple times, there are very few teams in the league who are willing to make trades

in November and December. We made a trade the first week of the season once with Miami. And then otherwise, there have been times we try to do stuff. Houston then was sterile. They're always aggressive throughout the year. But a lot of teams are just really reluctant to engage on anything those opening weeks of the season. So, yeah, you're right on the Crowder thing because, I mean,

the idea that you couldn't put him to another West contender, you probably get some blowback there. It's like, wait, you just gave them a rotational guy, but then which other contending team is going to give you a rotational piece back? Chris Haynes on the broadcast last night had mentioned that there was a Hachimura, Crowder, Washington thing that was going to actually get Rui to Phoenix. Because I've heard that Phoenix is in on all these people, but it just, I don't know, you hear it all the time.

It doesn't mean that necessarily anything's going to happen. So the names, you're right. The names are really limited. I wonder if anybody would make a play for Gordon Hayward with Charlotte. I'll answer that for you. No. Why? Because he's not... It's $31 million next year.

He's healthy like one day a week. I just don't see it. Yeah. You better be giving up a pretty bad contract to I just don't see it. Yeah. You better be giving up a pretty bad contract to get him back. So here's what, would Dallas do Bertans, Hardaway, and a protected future pick or something? That's the kind of stuff you're getting into, where it's just a bunch of dead money sloshing back and forth.'t think charlotte was going to use this for like phase two here of the rebuild but i would just go like you know i was watching it the other day and he's never healthy you're right yeah uh i'm sure he

would like to move somewhere else i think rotationally if everybody's there i don't even know how he fits in necessarily like i was thinking of kind of the the desperate trade where a team goes hey we got gordon hayward you're like man this is awesome and the local fan base which i don't blame them for not watching hornets games would be like man that guy's pretty good like in 17 and so um yeah again i'm just kind of speaking out loud because the normal names are all kind of the same names like if i have to hear john collins name one more time i actually feel bad for him at this point. I actually think I would bet that he's moved this time around because I just think

Atlanta needs to shake it up a little bit. Well, I think they've been playing better lately. I think it's more likely than in the past just because they're about to hit a situation with the tax where something's got to give. And so I think that's going to push them. I think the problem is up to this point, they probably overplayed their hand where they've been looking for stuff give. And so I think that's going to push them. I think the problem is up to this point,

they probably overplayed their hand where they've been looking for stuff back and realizing that teams don't look at that contract as, as favorable at this, at this point. But the John Collins trade I've always wanted is John Collins to Indiana. I think it'd be great next to Miles Turner and they're27 million under the cap right now, so they can take on a salary. But we'll see. That would be crazy, because then Miles could talk to John Collins

about being in trade rumors for three straight years. Yes. Let's talk a bigger Atlanta thing that has really probably nothing to do with this upcoming deadline, because I don't think it would happen. But I'm really happy that Sam Amick finally wrote what so many of us knew, with this upcoming deadline because I don't think it would happen. But I'm really happy that Sam Amick finally wrote what so many of us knew,

that the Trey Young situation in Atlanta is brutal and that it's an owner's son who's maybe qualified to have this much input on the front office, who seems to be the biggest Trey Young fan. And I think it's pretty clear that people don't love playing with him and that Atlanta may have to make

a real decision. Again, a decision I don't think they would necessarily even take seriously in season. But what do you think could potentially, like, what are you willing to believe is a possibility there? Especially because I think Trey was the one that pushed the idea that he might look to move on

that Chris Haynes had before, that it was references league sources. But I don't know. We've been around long enough. I kind of could tell how that one all played out. And I'm just glad that Sam wrote this piece might look to move on that Chris Haynes had before that was it was references league sources but I don't know we've been around long enough I kind of could tell how that one all played out and I'm just glad that Sam wrote this piece that I think a lot of us had heard about a lot of us knew the deal nobody had really said it and then it all comes to the forefront where it feels like it is a big mess based on a relationship between um you know an ownership issue and a star player that doesn't seem to have a ton of best friends on the team.

No. And I mean, he didn't have a ton of best friends when they made the conference finals either. So like, there's a, there's a certain aspect of, I mean,

he's, he's also really talented and you can't totally lose sight of that. But I mean, this is the thing going back to, to Oklahoma. I mean, that was the, uh,

the book on him going into the, into that draft was that he was kind of off on his own and wasn't really at the core of the team emotionally, even though he was clearly the best player. Well, that team was bad. In Oklahoma, I don't even blame them because that team wasn't very good.

Yeah, they snuck into the tournament. But yeah, for a team that had a high a high lottery pick yeah they were not very good um it's it's interesting because i do think they have to choose between young or murray like i just can't see when murray's contract is up in 24 and it cannot be extended the way it's structured. I just can't see him choosing to go back to playing with Trey again when he'll have other options that I think will be much more palatable and much easier pathways for him to get back to the All-Star game, let's say. So I think that decision point is coming where they have to choose trey or dijante but we both agree uh and speaking of everything and how hard it is actually get something going

and with the market being the way it is and the reluctance to just do something it's kind of like the bold it's it's it's if you're gonna if you're gonna screw up at least screw up with the masses you know it's where if you do something that's very unique and you screw up, then it's like, I can't believe you did that. The same mistake could be the same outcome. But if you're bold and you get it wrong, it's way worse than not being bold.

And I don't know that any franchise would be bold enough to do something like that with Trey, who, again, is still so popular with that fan base. But it is weird. At the trade deadline, there there's zero absolutely zero chance now after the season i think we'll revisit some things i mean the hawks i think it's almost assumed at this point that they'll be making a coaching change after the season regardless of uh of of what happens the rest of this year unfortunately for nate mcmillan

and so i think that's going to play into it too and how that dynamic goes. But I would be absolutely floored if anything happened with him before this summer at the absolute earliest. Do you like one Western team that much better than the field? I like two Western teams better than the field. I mean, I think Denver and Memphis have shown they're a cut above everyone else right now. We'll see if the Clippers or Golden State can get back to that point. They've shown themselves to be capable of it in the past,

but this regular season in the West has been a real head-scratcher. Nobody can get out of their own way. Yeah, I guess the Denver defensive numbers, it gives me a lot of hope. I love their top six or seven guys. I think there'd probably be a moment in the playoffs where I might be a little bit worried about a team deciding to attack Jokic.

Yeah, totally. But I don't know. I don't know if that changes the series because then he's going to come back on the other end. There's really nothing you can do with him. I mean, it was just hilarious watching Murray and Jokic kind of get back to that two-man game thing,

which I think could be a little predictable over a playoff series, but when it's worked to perfection, like even when you know what's coming and you know what all your help rules are, there's still really not that much you're going to be able to do. And so it would feel like

the normal progression of things that, all right, they've gone through some of the battles and made it to Western Conference Finals a couple of years ago, like they're ready to take that next step. But I still don't know the best version of them is that much better than the best version of a Memphis and the hope I hold out for Golden State and the same thing with Phoenix and maybe even New Orleans. So I think they're the favorites. I think it's clear, but it's not like this favorites were in years past where you go, nobody's beating that team in the West. Yeah, I agree with that. I agree with that. I think once we get to the second round

in the West, especially, I think there's a little more of a toss-up dilemma. I believe right now, though, the top five teams in the West standings are all teams that have never been to an NBA finals before. So we could get a first-time finalist here, right? Nuggets, Grizzlies, Kings, Clippers, Pelicans. There you go. Yeah, that's good. Because I feel like I lean more... If everybody's right,

I think I like Memphis the most. But then, you know, I know the recent stretch hasn't been great. I don't love that Ja was like, we're only worried about Boston. I thought that was a really stupid thing to say for a team that hasn't been great. I don't love that Ja was like, we're not, we're only worried about Boston. I thought that was a really stupid thing to say for a team that hasn't been out of the second round with this group. But I love the rotation. I love that Ja is kind of just impossible at times.

And I feel like some of this stuff, especially with Adams being out with his knee injury, I've really liked what I've seen from Jaron Jackson with the aggressiveness. And we know the defensive stuff is just absurd that he does. Yeah, yeah. Jackson with the aggressiveness. And we know the defensive stuff is just absurd that he does. Yeah. Yeah. So Memphis, I would say half court offense is probably the biggest concern that teams can slow them down and make them play station to station. There's not a lot of shooting there right now that they're, um, I want to say they're, what are they like 22nd or something in half court offense? Like their best, their best play in half court offense is throw it

on the rim and let Steven Adams go get it. And I'm not sure that translates to a playoff game. That said, I mean, they're going to be getting Danny Green back. They haven't really had their starting five together much this year at all and have still racked up wins. So I still think there's some upside there, too. They could do more stuff at the trade deadline, although they feel a little more Stan Padish to me at the moment. They have some assets to do some things that they really wanted to. They could probably use another big wing, bring back Jay Crowder, maybe,

although I think that's probably unlikely. So they're interesting for sure. I don't know. I feel like I'm actually too close to the situation. I can't see the forest from the trees a little bit because of my history there and everything. But they're definitely, I don't know, would you say co-favorites with Denver at this point?

Yeah, I think that's kind of how I felt about it because I feel like the Pelicans are a worse bet of Zion holding up over the course of the playoffs. Well, Zion and Ingram. I mean, Ingram's not exactly Lou Gehrig either. No, you're right. I mean, that thing went on forever. We know he's coming back now,

so it'll be exciting to see him go. And you could factor in the younger part of that where Memphis and Denver feel like they have a few more playoff scars and New Orleans has none. I actually do think that's important. It's not impossible, but I do think it's important. All right, but you said something about Memphis, I think, of the trade thing because

I think there's times you watch Dylan Brooks where I liked it. I like in big spots. I don't think he's afraid of anything necessarily, but maybe a little more fear might help with some of the shot selection. I know he was bitching the other day about feeling like he was like a marked guy because he gets fouls it's like do you ever watch film on the way you play defense like you you wait and to his credit i like that he's physical

but then you can't pitch about you know getting three to four fouls every single game i don't know if they would upgrade that i'm with you they have pieces they're so good at drafting people rotationally and bringing like aldama's a real player yeah he's he's a he's a flop artist but he's a real player and can do a couple different things matchup wise i don't know that there's intense demand for lauravia if they wanted to move a first rounder this quickly but i think they could do stuff but it might be like a bigger philosophical thing where they like that they feel like they can replace maybe the expensive aging rotational guy with the guy that they've already placed somewhere else. And that kind of speaks to their depth, but some of those guys don't even play.

And I think they'd be valuable. Yeah. I think the other thing they're trying to get out in front of is the team is about to get really expensive. Yeah. Morant supermax is going to kick in next year. Bain's extension is going to kick in the year after they already paid Jackson. Brooks is going to be a free agent this summer. He's going to probably get a raise to, I don't know, 20 or something. They did the extension with Adams,

like this team, even though it's an inexpensive, they're actually below the cap right now, but you look out two years ahead and it's a much more expensive version. And so it gets, it's just something that I think they do want to stay in front of. And then the other thing that's tricky

with Memphis actually, they don't have that big matching contract that's the obvious thing to put in a trade. They don't have somebody making $15 million sitting at the end of the bench. And so like putting together deals for that gets a little complicated that way. Like, yeah, you could trade Jake LaRavia, but he makes like $2 million or something, right?

So you could only take back like $4 million. So that's where it gets a little tricky for them. Okay, staying with that then, because I think that's a good pivot into Golden State, is because I don't think teams around the league have given up on Wiseman. I think they'd like to find a way to get him. I think Kaminga still has his moments. It's kind

of funny, too. He gets really up for jaw. I've seen that a couple times this year. I thought his Memphis game, he was pretty good recently, but he's still an unknown. And then Kerr trusts Anthony Lamb more than he does some of the lottery guys, right? Which I can't imagine being a lottery guy.

You're like, wait, this guy went to Vermont. He's playing more minutes than me. It would feel like punting on the assets a bit, but with this group and wherever this window is going, and then you have the Bob Myers situation with his contract and being up this summer and all the rumors about what he could potentially do, you wonder if they may say, is there a piece? But again, it always ends with, okay, what's that piece?

What's that rotational piece that would be playing real playoff minutes that makes sense for Golden State to kind of philosophically shift? I don't blame them for hoping some of these guys have developed. It hasn't worked, and they're not allowed the leeway that other top prospects. Like if Wiseman were on the Rockets, although no one would ever want to take away Alfie's minutes here, but if he were on the Rockets he'd be running around doing shit every week going this is insane he's just not going to get that because the rotational stuff's too messed up with him I I don't know if it's just give me your read on it it doesn't have to be based on sources or

anything like that and I think they have to trade Wiseman because that 12 million next year for how expensive that team is going to be is going to cost him like 60 million and he's just he's not going to play again like and right now like this is the window I think almost like the last window where they can get something of value for him that can help that can help them get another title in the Curry era and I think they had this idea that like okay we'll have you know Wis you know, Wiseman, Moody, Kaminga, and that'll be, you know, our next generation. I think they underestimated how hard it is to put together truly elite talent that is contender class. I mean, when two of these three lottery picks basically never play for them. And Kaminga, like, yeah, he's pretty good, right?

But, you know, is he the best rookie from his class? No. Or, I say best player from his class, let's say, since they're second-year players now. So, what do they really have there if you strip away Curry Green Thompson? Well, you have the Houston Rockets, basically, right? You might wish you had the Houston Rockets. Yeah, right? Yeah, so I think the move is

you have to do something with Wiseman and get the value you can for him. Now, I think you're right. I do think there are teams willing to take that shot. That's the way you maximize the chances of Curry, Green, Thompson getting you another ring. Okay. I don't want to call them rapid fire, but we will go extended rapid fire.

All right? A couple things to close. Which roster would you rather have moving forward? Houston, Orlando, or Oklahoma city? Do I get to keep Oklahoma city's draft picks? No,

because then you just, boy, uh, I'm, uh, I it's, it's Orlando or Oklahoma city for me. I,

I might even lean Orlando. I mean, Wagner, Boncaro, Carter, that's a pretty good frontcourt for a long time. I'm so happy of not giving up on Suggs. And I get that some of the offensive stuff, you're like, okay, do we already kind of know what this is going to be limitation-wise? But the way he went at Tatum

and some of the in-between stuff that he does, I mean, that's not what you're looking for when you're taking a guard top five. You're like, man, he makes a lot of heady plays. You're hoping the ceiling is higher than that. And maybe it's concerning. But I loved what I saw from him, from an intensity, competitive.

I love watching that team play so that's a good transition to this would you rather have tatum and jalen brown or paulo and franz in three years i think i'd probably have tatum and brown just i mean tatum still in his 20s he's with top five players like you're a bad question i want to see if i get you maybe if everything works out right can get to the level where Tatum is right now. So I've got to go with the self-expense. The Tatum part of it is that you can't. I

didn't know if I was going to trick you with the magic momentum that we have on the podcast. Okay. Who was, when you saw it on the caller ID, it was just the worst trade calls? You're like, seriously? I I'm gonna have to wait 30 minutes the opposing

team front office guy we're like who is the worst one to deal with yeah there is okay there is a clear winner on this but I'm gonna keep that to myself I tried I knew you were going to do that. Okay, last one.

Last one in honor of the Gobert trade, which I don't know if we're ready historically to understand how bad this trade is going to be. No one liked it. It's even worse. And it's really, if you were Ainge and the contracts, let's pretend the contracts don't matter here because that's what makes it even worse. And Minnesota called you back up and said, hey, we made a mistake.

But this is what we want to do. We'll give you Gobert for Walker Kessler straight up. Would you say no if you were Ainge? I honestly might say no because you said contracts don't matter. Okay. All right.

I would, I would, I would probably go ahead and do it then. I mean, the thing is, that's the, the most amazing thing about that Minnesota trade is it wasn't like they traded a pick that became Walker Kessler.

They had them like they had, they had him in their building. Had they had already drafted him and he makes like two million dollars or whatever for the next four years and instead they sent him out as part of the Gobert package yeah that's a tough one it's a tough one all right let's end on that thank you John thanks for having the show. Okay, the pick segment is going to be really quick because I spent 15 minutes on it in the open.

As you know, I'm laying the points for Philadelphia and taking the points for Cincinnati. Kyle? Yeah, quick check-in. After your 3-1 last week, you're down to 41%. I'm up from 34% to 38%. I might be able to catch you as long as I fade you, so I'm going to take the opposite. I'm going to take San Francisco plus 2.5, and I'm going to take the opposite. I'm going to take San Francisco plus 2.5%,

and I'm going to take Kansas City. What is that, minus 1.5%? Yeah, well, we'll see how it goes on that. I don't know how much they'll move. Yeah, I'm fading you, basically. I'm taking Kansas City, and that's really my only shot here. It's really still up to 7%, but whatever. Maybe we'll see them at the Super Bowl.

Yeah, maybe next year super bowl uh i do have a thing that i may need to go back to on the wild card round though because was there an official picks that was less because i thought i was just going whatever i'm picking in the open that's it and that was five and one so i may have to go back and listen well wild card round you have your i've got three in one yeah i know but i i don't i forget honestly i shouldn't even have shared this on the air so we're not gonna worry about it we'll do it later uh losing faith in the old stats are we okay uh well i don't know that we've been super locked in on the standings and we started it after like the thing that sucks for me is we started it after i started

the season eight and two and then we were like, now let's do a contest at like week four. Oh, right. Wow. Yeah. Good luck. That was good. Later. You want details? Fine.

I drive a Ferrari 355 Cabriolet. What's up? I have a ridiculous house in the South Fork. I have every toy you could possibly imagine. And best of all kids i am liquid so now you know what's possible let me tell you what's required life advice life advice rr at gmail.com okay uh what's up kyle good to see you i got i got you up early just for those people to know i sent kyle like a 5 45 a.m text being like hey what and then i called him he's

like dude i'm trying to get in the shower and then I called him. He's like, dude, I'm trying to get in the shower. And then I try to explain to him, I'm just letting you guys behind the curtain here a little bit. And then I said, oh, you're in the shower. And I go, how about I hang up,

stop talking, we'll see you early. Because we got stuff to do over here at the Casa. Well, yeah. And it was like, it was like, how early can we go? I was like,

I decided to just wake up for a second before I answered. I was like, I don't know, 20 minutes early. You're like, yeah, how about 40? I was like, all was like all right let's go yeah here we are 40 minutes early yeah no and you know look i i appreciate it so yeah of course had to be done okay uh all right i like this one pretty simple straightforward daughter is considering uvm and marist college oh my god this got to be fake come on both of our right in our wheelhouse both of us i don't think it's that impossible it's not it's really not right but if she's a hub as we've discussed so i get it

right i have a daughter do you who is a senior in high school uh she's lived her whole life in orange county she's considering several colleges, two of which are UVM and Marist, which is in Poughkeepsie. Oh, we know. We're going to be taking a trip in March to visit both. I was hoping, who knows, if Kyle's back, she could sublet a room or something.

Wait, we're talking Orange County, New York? Probably not, right? No, no, no, no. Okay, just want to make sure. Out here. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You got to ask stuff like that. She wants to go back

east she wants to see the seasons i think it's great i think it's a great call me too uh we're going to be taking a trip in marsh to visit both i was hoping you and kyle could get some advice on where she should go uh to get a good feel for the college and surrounding areas all right i'll uh i'll defer to you take the opening kick here um sure i mean the i mean just the the valley part of the hudson valley is the best so i mean you know you got the walking bridge if she's like a trails person there's plenty of them they got the rail trail which connects to the walking bridge um i don't know about bars i feel like uvm probably has poughkeepsie beat on bars it's just that's just my thought um so i would you know i think the bars that are in your face of poughkeepsie the

ones you would really go to anyway there's some new thing called Academy. It's called the Academy. It's on Academy Street. It's awesome. My buddy's got a place called Chakra Bowls. If she's into health foods, Chakra Bowls right there on Route 44. Yeah, I'd say just do the valley stuff in the Hudson Valley is what's going to really sell her on whether she wants to be there or not. And then it's going to be cold and then that stuff won't matter either. So it'll just be like kind of a regular cold college town once that happens.

So, yeah. I just feel like you kind of got us beat with what you're going to say, but that's all right. I don't know. I'm a little shocked here because Captain Poughkeepsie over here is already, you already seem like a guy that doesn't want to get into the fight. Like you're just assuming I'm going to win. Well, I just hear UVM party school. I just i hear uvm party school and i'm just thinking about

bars i know there's new ones since i left but it's just like i don't know if if that's what matters to a college kid which it did to me um i don't know i like my bars because i know where the you know the old guys are and i know where the young guys are and i can i can kind of bounce around on on how i'm feeling but if it's just like new and I want to see everything, I don't know. I don't know if it's going to wow a college kid that could have gone to UVM. I got to tell you, I don't know if the dad is just going,

what's the bar scene? I know he's not. I know he's not. I know he's not. What's the general... It's a really beautiful town, right? Yeah. Okay.

The cold factor, it's going to be cold either place. So we're going to get that one out of the way if you want to be warm do not do this uh i had a time walking across campus once where i was like if i don't make it i'm fine i'm so cold i'm so cold i don't want to i don't want to do this anymore i mean we're let's see we're like 45 minutes from a ski resort the catskill mountains are like an hour away so like i don't know if that if like're thinking about doing that, like I'm trying to think what does a college could do? I know some of my dudes would load up and go to like a mountain in the Adirondacks.

And that was like a plus for them trying to think like pluses for, for college students, um, the train to the city. I mean, you go right down to New York city. Uh, you can get there in 90 minutes on the slow train. I think it's like 75 on the fast train on the express. You got that. Be right. Grand central at your leisure. I don't know. What else is there?

What else do college kids want to do? I don't think they do any of that stuff. I think the parent walks around with a pamphlet and the student has no interest. And the student is, or the child at this point is at this age where it's like, you know, I admire and envy the parent-child relationship where they would go to visit a school and be like fired up to spend the day with each other. Because I would always think of it as like-

I never did that, yeah. Yeah. There'd be like some pamphlet and your dad would be like, oh, they have a volunteer bakery. Like that might be kind of interesting. Like a great sure. So then just like, do you want to come up with more stuff? I'm definitely never fucking doing. Not that my dad would be like oh they have a volunteer bakery like that might be kind of interesting like a great sheer city and just like do you want to come up with more stuff i'm definitely never fucking doing uh not that my dad would ever actually say that he would he would know better at that point but you get the point and you know you you want them there's even that line

from the sopranos where i think uh i think the mom is going to visit Meadow and she's like pointing to the flyers that were off in her dorm, you know, and it was like, yeah, it was, it was perfect because everybody on both sides of that would go, yeah, the mom, because now she has perspective on stuff is seeing something going on. All right. So, uh, I would, I would just say about Burlington that it's kind of the perfect city to go to college in. That's how I looked at it. And this is somebody who, because of game day, I don't know, 60 plus campuses, and there was plenty that I really liked. It all sort of depends

on what you want. The funniest thing, like one of the things when you play back certain memories in your head, I would say after a couple of weeks, because I actually wanted to go to St. Mike's, which is in Winooski, the next town over. And looking back on it, I'm happy with my decision. I think I even did a deposit at both. It was like down to the wire. Like it was the summer and I still wasn't 100% sure where I was going to go. And so I go to UVM. And after a couple of weeks, I was actually walking around campus being like, you've made a huge mistake. Like this is too big. It's too much for me. Like I can't, I don't like, this is weird. And I'd always been in small towns. I was never close, even though I've lived in big cities as an adult, I was never, you know, backwoods place in Connecticut, Martha's Vineyard. It's like, Hey, you know, fucking next step, Alaska. Like it was, it was pretty isolated, um, you know, fucking next step, Alaska. Like, it was pretty isolated, you know, small town kind of stuff.

And so Burlington and that campus at 8,000 undergrad and grad maybe, it felt way too big. And it's one of the funniest because by the end of the year, I was like laughing at the thought that it was too big because by the end of it, it felt really, really small. You go find somebody, you're like, it felt really, really small. You go visit somebody, you're like, oh man, what the hell? Yeah.

But I was- I went to Penn State like, oh my God. Well, look, visiting Penn State, I could have been happier during UVM. So I would, what I loved about UVM is that it had a campus feel to it where you could be just on campus, but then it had this kind of bustling town, even more so, certainly now it's a gorgeous town. The setting is great. And you can feel like you're part of this downtown thing, not just the bars, but just like you have a thing to be like, hey, let's go into town and we're going to kind of do

this thing. And it's not just the same four places. It's a real town where real people are living. places. It's a real town where real people are living. And even though the college supports so much of what's going on economically, it's really the only town in that area. The next towns that are closest to it, I mean, seriously, you'd go to Montreal or you would have to end up in New Hampshire. Seriously, that's how... So I loved it as far as the perfect town. As far as the college thing, I can't really speak to it. I haven't been there in forever. I think UVM probably can be considered a little weird, but that's what people said about it when I was going there.

They were like, oh, you're just going to be a hippie and do whatever. I was like, actually, it's for a lot of prep school kids that couldn't get into even better schools. They're like, all right, this school is good enough. I'll just go here and have a good time. that couldn't get into even better schools. They're like, all right, this school is good enough. I'll just go here and have a good time. So I don't know what it's like now. I talked to somebody who I went to school with and she took her son on a visit and he was like, if you get the wrong tour guide, then it's your first impression. And now you start thinking, look, and Burlington can be a little weirder if you care about that stuff. But I just can't imagine it's like a college student going politically this doesn't feel like the right environment like are you really going to do

maybe you do maybe that's that speaks to to how you operate um me 18 to 22 i didn't give a shit who the mayor was all right so there you go although they did pass all sorts of legislation that fucked over any student um and they all the locals vote on it. We would never vote on it. I don't even know why we should have been voting as temporary college students anyway. But again, this stuff was impacting us. And they would pass all sorts of stuff where we would lose every single time,

which is pretty much standard for how that stuff would happen anyway. So, all right, there you go. That's a hard sell by both guys. Is Poughkeepsie like that? Does it feel like it's a town that exists without the college? It totally is. I mean, Poughkeepsie was an IBM town, which is actually still there. And then the other thing that he's that, uh, he kind of reminded me is there are actually a lot of other little pockets in these towns that are, you know,

10, 15 minutes away. That's that's kick-ass. And there's a bunch of colleges. You got, uh, the culinary Institute of America. I think that's one of four of them is right there in Hyde park, right down the road from you. You got Dutchess community college right America. I think that's one of four of them is right there in Hyde Park, right down the road from you. You got Dutchess Community College right there. New Paltz is not far. Dutchess Community College, you want to see some characters. You go there. But you'll see these people all around the town.

So that's good. And there's plenty of place to explore if you want to go there. It's not like just Poughkeepsie or nothing. It's not Poughkeepsie or bus. And then the last thing I would say is for flying, might be a little bit of a pain in the ass. It's not like you show up to the airport and then you take a 20 minute cab to where you're from. I think you can come out of Westchester now, but then you got to get probably on the Metro North and Westchester to Poughkeepsie. And that's what you get when you go far away, but it's just not

super simple. Yeah. Whenever you start talking about all the surrounding areas and stuff, especially early on, you just don't do a lot of that stuff. You're just not going to. That's like junior year, senior year stuff. You get a little more ambitious. At UVM, we never wanted to leave. Never. I can only think of a couple weekends where we went to go visit somewhere else because you were always afraid of coming back and being like, what did I miss?

Yeah, that's true. We never, never left other than the slew run where i think even we were like whoa are we not doing enough yeah that's what i thought of when i went there too yeah like are we actually pretty soft like what's what's our problem all right okay um this one's a little weird i don't even know i don't know if we're going to lose another listener on this one. Cold call psychology. Here we go. 27, 6'3", 200, bench 255.

Looking for clarity. I work for a major four sports team in season ticket sales. Oh, okay. All right. That makes sense. Right? So hockey, football, basketball, baseball. Most of my job is... What's that? oh okay all right that makes sense right so hockey football basketball baseball he works most of my job is what's that he works for a major four sports team was this like a college

or something no no no no i believe he means the four professional sports that we would uh oh a major four okay so he's keeping it vague but we get it okay yeah no he's smart to keep it big um most of my job we have somebody who's doing some relationship email kyle and you sent me the first one so now i'm getting the update and he's like please don't read this please don't read this we're not fucking reading it don't worry about it like if you can we got people quaking in their boots these days dude right stop emailing the show at 3 a.m get it together. I don't even know if that's the same one.

But it's happened a few times. And, you know, we had that one that actually in the aftermath I was like, we had to lose. Yeah.

All right. So anyway, here we go. He works season ticket sales. Which I did as well. Minor League Baseball. 20 years ago. Most of my job is cold calling single game buyers and businesses trying to get their foot in the door in the arena for a membership.

We obviously have hundreds of conversations and making these calls throughout the week, and most people do not have interest in taking a cold call to which we hear a plethora of excuses of why they can't talk. Welcome to cold calling. We totally understand that no one wants to have a conversation with a random stranger,

but after doing this for several years, there's still a common response that I cannot fathom that people think is a valid excuse to not have a conversation. So he's upset that people use this as an excuse to not engage further. Quote, I cannot talk right now.

I'm at work. Like, yeah, it's 11 a.m. on a Wednesday morning. Do you think most people aren't working right now? You saw the phone was ringing, but you still picked it up to tell me you cannot talk wait so you're blaming the person that you called what about if i don't have any money is that you're walking around without any money guy really okay weirdo do you think i'm calling a stranger for fun on a weekday i'm also at work do you think I'm calling a stranger for fun on a weekday? I'm also at work. Do you truly want to talk at a different time

or are you just trying to not hurt my feelings? Yes is the answer. Yes is the answer. Putting this out there for the people who also make cold calls, but why do you think people consider this a valid response? It makes everyone's life a lot easier on both sides if you're honest about not wanting to have a conversation. Then we know not to call back. looking for the thoughts of an amateur psychologist

big cat's words not mine did big cat call me that that's fine i don't know i've been called worst and i don't know that it's entirely untrue people that hate this segment which is very very rare that i hear somebody hated like book like yeah whatever who are you yeah we're just answering fucking emails here right i'm not prescribing drugs but like what i would do here all right so uh this is kind of a weird one only because the guy's pissed about what is a very go-to response because you know what people don't do like when direct tv calls you right because they're trying to upgrade you on the thing that you're not going to fucking cancel that six months later is all going to show up on your bill. We all know the game.

Gym memberships, again, way ahead of this economic development of just what can we get people to subscribe to that they won't cancel because people forget. We have apps now that give us heads up on like, hey, you haven't canceled this. It's the whole sector. Yeah, right. Okay. This is dudes aren't trying to sell the product like what haven't people signed up for that's my business model so uh i don't say i have no interest although you know it's getting there right like when somebody calls you about something

like this and they get through and sometimes you are waiting on a call and it may not seem spam risk although the technology is getting better and it may not seem spam risk although the technology is getting better and better to not answer the calls that you don't want but if you answer it i just don't think many people like there's just a human thing about us where you're not going to go i have no interest and never want to talk to you again thank you for your time like it's great it's efficient this is what this guy's asking for, apparently. Terse, efficient, to the point. Right? No doubt. Hey, I hate sports.

I'm never going to this. Right? Is that what the guy? I think that's just a very human massaging of like, I don't want to talk to this guy selling me something. We let people down easy as a natural sort of thing. Yeah. Is he hoping to get some momentum after this,

where now people just start answering phone calls in the most abrupt way possible? No, fuck off. Yeah. Great. How did you get this number? Did you ever cold call?

No, I was terrified. And I, I was cut. Co came to town when I was a kid and there were a couple of kids, some inductors, kids willing to go sell knives, calling and stuff like that. And I was like that. It just makes me nauseous when I was a kid. There were a couple kids, some inductorious kids, willing to go sell knives, calling, and stuff like that. And I was like, that just makes me nauseous when I think about it.

Just bothering people at home makes me nauseous. So I was like, no, I'll work at a pizza place, or I'll watch people's kids at the gym or something. I'm not selling knives door to door. I am not cold calling. My sister would do the Girl Scout cookies, and I was like, I'm uncomfortable for my whole family that you're going to ask them

how much do you want to buy? So I'm never into that. I was never into that. I always steered far, far clear of that. I can see you just being like, dude, knives, I can get you a knife. Yeah, you come to me. You find me, man.

Wait, I'm gray market, man like what are you looking for i don't i don't need to do this i don't need to do this i don't need any channels i don't need any data i don't need to leave a trail behind like you need a knife just let me what are you gonna use it for just tell me what you need it for right say cutlery uh that's pretty funny that's pretty funny so you never had to do anything like that you've never done anything you didn't do the easter candy thing where they make you sign up the sheet i used to go to my grandmother's nursing home and have everybody sign that sheet up and i don't even know if i delivered you know i'd like they always seemed like there was extra chocolate

bunnies at my house my mother would be like who's who's this for? I'm like, I don't know. Guy might not even be there anymore. You know, it's one of those nursing homes. They pushed me at Models to sell more. And I was just like, sure. No intention of like pushing harder. I was just like, yeah, I'll help you guys. But like, you know, managers would be like, hey, that guy's walking around.

I'm like, yeah. And until he starts to look lost, I'm going to leave him alone. You know, I don't know what he wants. I'm not going to try to push a baseball mitt on him unless he asked me for it. Like, that's just, that was just my, because I don't like him alone. You know, I don't know what he wants. I'm not going to try to push a baseball mitt on him unless he asked me for it. Like, that's just, that was just my, because I don't like being like, you know, being like get on when I'm in a store or somebody's calling me or something like that.

I just, you know, I, I know that good salesmen aren't that way, but I was just never destined to be a good salesman. Yeah, I, I think it's great. I think the people that have it down, I had a cold call when I went to the Trenton Thunder, which I've, you know've talked about in the past. That was a pretty brutal experience. And it was brutal for a bunch of reasons, but the number one thing was the financial part of it.

I was told, I sat in an interview, and they were like, it's a free internship. And I'm like, dude, I'm turning 27 this year. Money's got to start coming in. Right. You saw the resume. I flew down here. I can't fathom that you would have thought like yeah i didn't have much on the resume but even even at that stage i was like i can't do that i was like see i was like pissed i was like all right i'm out of here they were like sit down let's see if we can't figure something out then

the gm came in and he was like what do you need and that's where the whole thing started he was just like we'll put you on the air and i was like that doesn't make in and he was like, what do you need? And that's where the whole thing started. He was just like, we'll put you on the air. And I was like, that doesn't make any sense. He's like, but you're going to have to sell. You're going to have to sell cold call and sell tickets and do all this kind of stuff. So I was like, all right, well, how's that going to work? Like, what's the money? He was like 12 grand base, but you'll make like 30. So I was like, wait, am I going to make 30 or like, and he goes, no, no, you'll make, you'll make 30. He's like, you'll probably make 30. Slipped that one word in there. Right, right.

And so after I moved down there, drove down, left the girlfriend behind, and then I started cold calling. So how'd you do at it, though? Did you find a stride or what? Yeah, I was okay at it. Because those tickets aren't super in demand, right? The minor league baseball tickets, right? The reggae are good, but I don't know.

I've never been like, I wish somebody would call me so I could get my package together. No, I think the key was knowing who to call. If you found a new boys and girls club, you were like, oh, come on. Oh, okay. We used to have a draft. We'd have a meeting before the day we'd get started. And then once there were new leads, we would have a draft. We'd go around. I remember there was this one thing where there was this new production company,

this movie thing or whatever. And it was a big deal in Trenton. And I was like, I picked this production company because I'd read it in the paper. I'd go through the paper and look to see if there was new stuff going on. Because I was trying to figure out a way to make money. Just be good at this. I was hustling a little bit. Good enough to make 30. Right. And it was funny because in the draft they were like um actually uh we had a thing because they realized like that's a sick draft pick we should have been on that we're not letting this kid who's been here two months take them so it was like all of a sudden like actually you're not allowed like that's not really how the

draft worked but the thing that sucked was that once i had been doing it for a couple weeks and i was you know i was okay like i would always try to find a way to disarm, like, Hey, I know that sucks. Nobody wants to talk to us right now, but like, you've got a youth group over there. Let's do this thing. And the whole thing was this idea that you get this massive discount on this group, right? And it wasn't even close to being true. It wasn't that much of a discount, but you're always trying to figure out like these whales who were like, Oh, it's this youth group. They're going to bring out like 100, 200 kids. I'm going to do this whole thing. And you can figure out your commission. But after a couple of weeks, when I figured out my commission, I was like, there's no way, there's no way I'm making $18,000

in commission, zero. And you left out the part where you don't give us the commission until the season is over. Okay. So they sit there on your commission making interest. The whole thing was so fucked up financially. So then I i'm like this is insane like i have to sell millions of tickets millions of tickets and there's 20 of us in there cold calling and you lied in the interview you straight up lied then the guy was like kind of gave me a look like gotcha too late too late now motherfucker yeah i'll tell you what though this motherfucker as soon as he was on the air for a couple months months, like, I'm not riding this shit out anymore. See, yeah, I will say it's going to be permanent.

Go ahead. I will say to our guy, I actually have adopted your way of like going going about things when people are cold calling me. I'll just say no thanks, man. And I'll hang up. I'm not really waiting for the no thanks. And it's like, oh, because then it's are you sure? So if that's what you want, if you want a no thanks and a, and a swift hangup, that's what I've done. I've, I've adopted. I used to, you know, pat my pockets when a dude asked me for money on the streets. Now I just say, no, I don't have to

say why. Like if I have, and if I'm going to give some money, I will, but if I'm not, I'm not going to be like, Oh shit, I don't know cash today. I'll even just say no cash today. Sometimes now it's just straight up. No. Um, just that's that's how i've uh approached things and if that's what you want i'm doing that so you'll get a you'll get a no thanks and a hang up from me if you ever call me i think that's what the email is simply asking for is just everybody be ruder and more efficient it took me a while to get here and i don't feel great about it but i i kind of am i mean i'm living my truth you know i love the pocket pat was part of like, it was your,

you know, maybe it was a couple bucks. Then it was a pocket pat. And now it's just no cash. Yeah. Now it's no, actually. It used to be no cash.

Now it's just no. You think guys sit around being like fucking debit cards, man. Just get killed us. The nineties were awesome. Okay, enjoy the games this weekend. Thanks to Kyle, Ryan Musilov Podcast,

Ringer Spotify. We'll talk to you on Monday. Outro Music