The Ryen Russillo Podcast - Top 12 CFB Teams Right Now, Worst Take, and Joy Taylor on Tua, Plus Hedge Fund Manager Ray Dalio on the Future
Episode Date: September 21, 2022Russillo shares his weekly ranking of the top 12 college football teams (0:39), before he is joined by Joy Taylor of Fox Sports to discuss Tua Tagovailoa's six-touchdown performance vs. the Ravens, th...e Dolphins' reluctance to back him in previous seasons, Joy's journey from local radio to national television, and more (11:25). Next, Ryen, Ceruti, and Kyle convene for this week's Worst Take (46:19). Then Ryen is joined by investor and hedge fund manager Ray Dalio to discuss his book 'Principles for Dealing With the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail' (53:08). Finally Ryen answers some listener-submitted Life Advice questions (1:29:52). Host: Ryen Russillo Guests: Joy Taylor and Ray Dalio Producers: Kyle Crichton and Steve Ceruti Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
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today's podcast loaded a lot of different adventures on this one joy taylor from fox
sports talks dolphins talks her career and also why she can root for two nfl teams ray dahlia
legendary hedge fund manager also an author I read his most recent book,
some warning signs about the U.S. economy. I'm going to do something a little different,
and then life advice. Oh, and also worst take. Do we have any new entries into the podium? Enjoy.
Today's open. We're going to talk college football. I'm going to give out the top 12
teams in college football. I'm going to do it every week, usually on Wednesday,
depending on, you know, the Mondays is going to
be always NFL and then probably
half the time college, but
I don't want it to be rankings every Monday.
So we're going to do it at least on Wednesday
for this one. Now, so here we
go. Just some rules before we get to my top
12. I'm going to do top 12 because, you know,
eventually it's going to be 12 teams in the playoffs.
I don't care about stats after three games.
I just don't.
You'll see graphics or teams coming in.
I mean, here of the top 10 offenses, yards per play,
Maryland, Duke, and Kansas are in there.
Top 10 defenses, points allowed, Minnesota, Tulane, James Madison.
So there's a lot of teams that haven't played anybody.
And again, I'm not even knocking Tulane or James Madison,
certainly not Kansas' offense.
We know Maryland's going to be a little bit better this year,
but it doesn't mean anything.
It doesn't mean anything because half the teams have played nobody,
and the other half may have a really tough non-conference on there.
They had an early conference game.
Another part of my rules here, as far as ranking the teams,
which will be different from what's in the AP and the coaches,
have you done one thing that is remotely impressive?
Have you done at least one thing?
And that would be a nice out-of-conference win.
I have no problem with teams playing in FCS.
I have no problems with some directional thing.
I think the FCS stuff that people get really mad about is weird.
When the SEC has a handful of teams playing FCS schools late
before a big rivalry game, people get mad about those,
but less mad about ones that happen with other conferences
in the beginning of the year.
So yes, it sounds like Rosillo's doing his SEC thing again.
But it's just true.
It's just true.
People are very inconsistent with how mad they get
about some of this stuff.
Do you play one team out of conference?
And there are some programs that do it all the time.
Ohio State always does it.
They always do it.
LSU has done it for years.
Bama's done it.
A lot of neutral site stuff, not so much now.
Georgia does it.
SC, especially with the Notre Dame part, but Stanford usually always does it.
Usually Stanford's not in conference.
You're like, God, you guys trying to make it even worse?
So there are programs all over the country that at least test themselves once,
and then there's Baylor.
Although Baylor did go to BYU this year and lose in overtime,
so that was nice to finally see that after a run of every single Texas school that they could find. It sounds like a made-up
Netflix series. So more rules. Does the SEC get the benefit of the doubt? Yes. And so does everyone
else. Any other program that's been good over the last few years gets the benefit of the doubt,
just like we see in the AP poll. And just like I cannot help myself because I can't go, Hey, 12 deep only based on who I
thought has proven themselves. Cause then I still have to kind of contradict my own rule by being
like, have you done just one thing by then playing the reality game of like, say this, say I have
Oklahoma lower than someone else. Say I want to go, well, I don't know anything about Oklahoma
new coach. I'm not even going to have them in their top 12. The non-conference isn't that good,
so I'm going to put them outside. I'm not going to go that crazy with it because at the end of
the day, I still have to play the game of do I think Oklahoma would beat team fill in the blank
that's ahead of them in my rankings? And sometimes the answer will be yes, although that is giving
them the benefit of the doubt and having a pre-bias about an organization that's been really
good for a while. So do your rules contradict themselves?
Yes, everyone's does.
Assumptions have to be made.
And as we move later into this, I will look for your win.
I've mentioned this before too, the cost of a loss versus what I think this team is.
A loss has to mean something, but when it's one loss
that's a team that I still think is really good, it doesn't
mean that I'm automatically just going to put you behind somebody else
who I think you're better than because they're undefeated.
And that's what becomes the constant
battle with this. It's the resume
and I test in a constant battle
of do I always
default to the resume? And my point
is just very consistent with this.
It's that it's not consistent. And ultimately, none of this shit matters. If I have your team six and the AP,
they're four, who cares? All right, moving on. Georgia number one, no debate there. I'm going
Ohio State two because I still feel like the Notre Dame game, even though they were down at halftime,
that offense is loaded. The receivers are loaded again. I don't know what Bama is going to
be like unless some of these guys on the outside develop and develop quickly. Prentice seems to be
the number one option for them. I've mentioned their recruiting rankings, even though they've
lost a couple from these back-to-back monster wide receiver classes, but we just haven't seen
enough of it at this point. I know the Ohio State concern is on another side. I would rather today
in college football, hell, even in the NFL, I would rather have a dynamic, how are we going to
stop these guys' offense than a lockdown defense? Because I just think the way the game is played
with the speed and spreads and these athletes everywhere, even when you have a really good
defense, there's going to be games where you're still giving up 30 points. I mean, I guess unless
you're Georgia or some of the Clemson teams. So top three, Georgia, Ohio State, Bama.
I'm putting USC four.
I thought the win against Fresno State last Saturday night was like the last game that was still on.
So I get to watch them for a good chunk.
They are another offense that seems horrifying.
I don't like their defense as much as teams behind them, but a dominant win against Fresno State, you know, for how the game played out.
Fresno State's got some guys there.
That was a good win, even though not a power five non-conference. against Fresno State for how the game played out. Fresno State's got some guys there.
That was a good win, even though not a Power 5 non-conference.
I'm putting a question mark next to Clemson.
Clemson, we could sit here and say, well, they haven't played anybody,
and this gets back to it.
When people constantly, like the Danny Connell theory,
that only SEC schools are given the benefit of the doubt,
Michigan is fourth in the AP.
They haven't played anybody.
Clemson's up there.
Oklahoma's up there.
All of them, blue blood programs that are getting the benefit of the
doubt because of either how they ended last
year, the personnel that is back, or a
nice start to a season where they've been
dominant against not much competition.
These are all carryover thoughts because
we have nothing else to go on because we are
as clueless about college football as we are about
any other sport because of the turnover.
It's just in August you don't know. So that's why you default to some of these programs and that's what
happens over and over again and it's not just about one conference so i have usc fourth i have
clemson fifth because i don't know but i know i'm not going to put them like outside of this because
that would be ridiculous because the defense is that good um and i think i think the offense is better than last year, but I don't know. Michigan's offense
looks terrific. Looks like they have a ton of weapons. It looks like they've actually
found a way to, not like you're going to supplant two NFL defensive ends like they had last year,
but it doesn't look like it's a lost cause. But again, they haven't played anybody,
but I have them sixth, which feels good. Kentucky's at least got at Florida. You can
sit there and be dismissive of who Florida is now after watching them, not only in the Utah,
the Kentucky game, finding a way to win this past weekend, despite Richardson struggling big time
the last couple of weeks. But I don't look at winning at Florida as just some super easy thing
to do on a Saturday night. I just don't.
And Kentucky has now beaten them at their place, I think, now twice.
Back-to-back wins at Florida.
This is the first time that it happened in like 40-something years.
Penn State, I have eight.
That's higher.
It feels like a lot of people like Penn State,
that are locked into college football.
The voters don't seem to like it.
Maybe it's the close game against Purdue.
I don't think beating Auburn is all that hard
because I can't believe Finley would get
another power five gig in the SEC, their quarterback.
I just think he's kind of lost back there.
And they have some different options.
Singleton, the freshman running back for Penn State,
is really that special.
And Isaac, number 20, the defensive end,
he needs a different number.
I don't like him at 20. Makes him look smaller than he is. That guy was one of my favorite players
this past weekend. So yes, Penn State, close one with Purdue, but at least they went down to Auburn
despite the fact I don't think much of Auburn's offense or at least the guy running in our
offense. Again, I can't believe Finley would get a transfer job at another school like Auburn that
quickly because I just don't think he's that good of a quarterback.
All right, Tennessee, win at Pitt.
They're ranked.
Give me Tennessee at number nine.
Arkansas, a win against Cincinnati.
Massive turnover, but it's still something there for Arkansas.
That's where I have Oklahoma.
It's lower than everybody else's.
It's probably wrong.
It feels like I'm giving Clemson and Michigan a benefit
of doubt more so than Oklahoma.
I am, and as I pointed out in the intro, I will contradict myself with these rules.
But Dylan Gabriel, if you go back and look at what he did before he transferred
in his first couple of years, how clean he was, he's not the biggest guy,
but the run he had last week is just a little bit of a reminder.
Man, look back at this guy's numbers when he was at UCF.
These are stupid numbers, stupid touchdown interception ratio splits on that.
So I got him 11.
I put Washington 12.
They were up 29-8 on Michigan State.
It's something.
I thought about Oregon putting him back in.
I wasn't going to do that.
I thought the same thing about Utah.
I even thought about Baylor a little bit here with some of these one-loss teams,
but at least Washington with Pennix, the Indiana transfer.
They're different on offense.
They're more dynamic on offense.
And to dominate a team like Michigan State, which is still,
I don't necessarily love their quarterback either,
but a team that you feel like is always going to compete,
that actually was something.
That showed me something.
So there you go, my first top 12 of the college football season.
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This is something that's long overdue. We should have done this a while ago. Joy Taylor,
Fox Sports, joins us now. She got kind of dressed up for us, though, so I don't know
what kind of vibe she's putting off this early in the morning, but we appreciate it.
Yeah, huge hoodie and hat, right? I actually should have done it. That would have been
funnier. I regret not putting like a gown on for this.
Yeah.
Whenever I did,
whenever I did cowherd show,
I would try to find one of like the deal was at ESPN,
right?
All the shows would get t-shirts made.
Although when they made the Rosillo show shirts,
they put KFC gold logos on the sleeve because that was the only way anybody
would pay for them.
So there's some sick Rosillo shirts with this huge honey mustard dripping logo on the sleeve.
I can see if I can find a medium somewhere.
But there would be these shirts that were left over from different promotional events.
And I always thought they were hilarious.
So I would always grab like one and I go, this joke is going to pay off big time down the road.
So whenever I would do cowherd show, when you were on it, I would wear one of the old promotional things from the free bin
and half the time he would get it. And like half the time he wouldn't, but I do have a cowherd one
that just old logo. It's like 12 years old. It's released. People have offered me money for it.
I'll wear it out socially. So I definitely could sell that. Put it on Poshmark. I tried to do
Poshmark when I was moving from Connecticut.
I was like, you know, I have all these dress shirts.
They've been through the wars.
And nobody wanted any of them.
It was a huge disaster.
It might have priced a little too high.
That might have been it.
I don't know.
Anyway, thanks for doing this.
How are you?
I'm great.
Thank you for having me.
This is a big deal.
Your podcast is a big deal.
I feel very honored. I'm not being sarcastic. It sounds like I'm being sarcastic, but I'm not. you for having me this is a big deal your podcast is a big deal I feel very honored I'm not being sarcastic it sounds like I'm being sarcastic but I'm not I don't mind that's okay
I didn't know like timing wise we had planned on having you for a while and then the Tua thing
happened both for me and Tua uh we know where your your heart is is placed when it comes to the NFL
where are you right now with Tua then? Because you know what I said last week
where I was like, man, after week one, I feel like this isn't
going well. And then he turned into a Hall of Famer
week two. Yeah, poor timing
for that take, Brian. It happens
sometimes. It can
happen. You know,
I think we've talked about this before,
but I've gone through quite a
journey with Tua. And I think you're probably now
aware, I don't know how much time you spend reading your mentions, but I've gone through quite a journey with Tua. And I think you're probably now aware,
I don't know how much time you spend reading your mentions, but Dolphins fans are very protective of Tua. They're very split on the organization as a whole, which is understandable because there's
a lot of trauma associated with being a Dolphins fan over these past 20, 25 years.
But they really love Tua.
And it's been fascinating to see how the organization has handled Tua.
So where I am at with Tua right now this year
is I think he's going to have a good year
for multiple reasons.
Obviously, they put a lot of
really talented pieces around him.
They shifted from a defensive coach
that clearly we can, you know,
assume from all the reporting wasn't that really into Tua
in Brian Flores and shifted to a offensive coach. And they also have backed him, which to me is the
most important thing. I have this theory on young quarterbacks, and I will die on this hill,
on young quarterbacks, and I will die on this hill, that they should start early and right away.
And we've sort of adopted this mentality that if you take a rookie quarterback, you have to sit them. And I think it's nonsense. It's silliness to me. You should see what you have in them as
soon as possible. And everyone's all delicate about their confidence. And I feel that there's value in failing.
So with Tua, the organization tried to replace him three times. They didn't start him over
Ryan Fitzpatrick, which I feel was a mistake. Then they tried to replace him with Deshaun Watson
very publicly for an entire year until the trade deadline. And now we know that there was something going on with Tom Brady and the organization.
So they never, they took him,
where they took him in the draft,
made this whole production of it,
and then never backed him as the starting quarterback.
So I don't know how anyone could be successful
in that situation unless they were just otherworldly awesome.
Like these are young people we're talking about.
We were young once.
We need people to believe in us, especially in a position like that. So we all knew Tua had talent
coming in. I mean, I had questions about his durability because he had injuries in college,
and that's not my favorite. But we all knew he was talented. It's not a big reveal that young
quarterbacks need talent around them to succeed and that they need the backing of the organization.
So I'm not surprised that Tua is doing well.
And I think he's going to have a nice year because they're actually doing the things you're supposed to do to support a young quarterback.
Like if you suck, you suck.
And it's just going to come through no matter what the organization does.
Right.
But he doesn't suck.
He's shown growth.
But the organization has just been wobbly with everything that they've done to manage him.
And I just, I don't know how they, why would you do that?
Like you're hustling backwards.
Do what you're supposed to do.
And if he's not good, then you know.
But now they're in kind of this weird space where people still doubt whether he's good enough,
even though he is performing.
And it's like, yeah, what did you think people were going to think you never believed in him yeah that's always kind of my tell-all with uh with any quarterback that i like or don't like
you know and i've had a good run and maybe the run is over with the two of stuff but you know
when i didn't like kirk cousins when he was in washington i go the team didn't want to pay him like they have a starter in Washington, I go, the team didn't want to pay him.
They have a starter who supposedly puts up decent numbers, and they don't want to pay him long-term money.
What does that tell you?
And now Garoppolo, I didn't like all that much for a long time.
It's like, wait, they put all of this into going to get Trey Lance, who didn't really even play a final season in college?
That kind of tells me something.
didn't really even play a final season in college.
Like that kind of tells me something.
Tannehill, you know, like they went ahead and drafted somebody after like two really nice statistical seasons
after another team had already moved on.
And yet Tannehill's actually this rare success story
of a guy who's somewhat productive for a new team as a former first rounder.
So when the organization,
and they would argue different stuff on the timeline on Brady,
they would argue, oh, wait, we weren't as interested in Deshaun,
which I think is total bullshit. I think it's really easy to say you weren't interested in the guy that's a bad PR
hit when he ends up somewhere else. I don't believe anything about what they have to say
about Deshaun. And then Fitzpatrick recently was kind of talking about too a little bit.
So when I always feel like teams in the NFL will kind of tell you, it doesn't mean they're right
all the time, but they'll tell you.
If you doubt a quarterback and the team starts doing things that tell you they also doubt him, listen to them.
So I get Miami fans.
It's actually been kind of funny with their passion for it.
But again, it's all selfish.
It's my team spent a high pick on this guy.
We're going to watch him play three or four years.
He has to be good or we've wasted this time and then we have to start the whole process over again so
usually it's not football related it's selfishly motivated you know motivated based on how you feel
about your team you know again this isn't unique it happens everywhere it's just a weird debate to
get into but the thing is is throughout all of it, there'll be players where I
go, I think this guy's awesome and I'm
rooting for him. Or there'll be somebody who I'm like, this guy
sucks. And I think like everybody else,
you're like, you know, it would be
a lot easier for me if he sucks because I've said
I think this guy's going to suck. For Tua,
I want him to be successful.
I just, after that first week,
I felt like, here we see it again. But you're so
right about Flores too because you could tell from the play calling alone. It's like, man, they do not trust him at all. And to see McDaniel just go like, look, we have no choice or we're going to move on from you. So why wouldn't we do everything possible for you and finally figure out the answer if we have the right guy? And that's what I think we're at least going to see this season. Well, I also don't get
the mentality
that you have to elevate
lesser players.
Like, everyone thrives
with better people around them.
Why do you...
What is the struggle competition?
Like, oh, he didn't have
great players around him
and he was still successful.
Just to interrupt too,
like, especially the young guys.
Like, you want to... Like, the crazy about brady is they almost did it out of like
this odd spite because brady could pull it off rogers can pull it off um hell even deshaun at
times like what he would do with nothing around him just from the football part of it but
i i agree with like what's what, especially when it's still a rookie contract of like,
Hey,
let's,
let's make sure he doesn't have anybody.
I think it's insane.
And,
and,
and fans and media reinforce it too.
They're like,
Oh,
well,
like he can't be that good.
Cause look at what he's throwing to like,
look at his offensive line.
Like,
so you get the,
he's getting criticized for playing with great players.
Like Patrick Mahomes kind of gets a little bit of this.
Like, oh, well, he walked in.
Look at the situation he came into.
Andy Reid and, you know, he's got Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey.
And he didn't have to play right away.
Like sat behind Alex Smith.
Like, yeah, but he's still really good.
And he still went and won a Super Bowl and the MVP.
And he still looks pretty good.
They're 2-0 still. And everyone said they were going to be done without Tyreek Hill.
I think maybe he's just good. I don't like taking away from someone because they have pieces around
them. I get it. It is something to elevate lesser, but you also can't win that way.
So where it comes down to for me generally is I like to look at the macro of
the situation. So for all these situations, I look at the organization. What did the organization do?
It's why I never week for organizations that have to pay their quarterback. That's the whole point.
What do you want me to say to you? That you found someone worth paying and now who you have to pay
them? It's the only position you should want to pay. It's literally the only position that you
should want to budget for is a starting quarterback. And now you have to pay them. It's the only position you should want to pay. It's literally the only position that you should want to budget for
is a starting quarterback.
And now you're crying about it.
And then you bring in a rookie guy,
but you don't have any plans
on putting an offensive line in place,
which is like the first thing you should do.
Forget weapons.
You should put an offensive line in place
because they're going to struggle.
And then he's not
because they're a young quarterback.
And then you complain about having to get pieces.
It's like they don't do the obvious formula
for young quarterbacks
and then can't figure out why they can't win.
It's like seeing with Justin Fields.
Like, what do you want me to say about Justin Fields?
He's playing for Chicago.
We've seen Chicago do this a million times.
Like literally, this is all Chicago does.
Is Justin Fields talented?
Sure.
Are we going to see how talented he is in Chicago?
I don't know.
My guess is no. Because they're not doing what they're supposed to do with a young quarterback.
So with all these guys, I think it becomes very difficult to evaluate what they're capable of,
unless they're really very obviously visually talented, unless they're a Justin Herbert,
right? Where you can just see like, okay, this guy's doing great things. If he gets the
right things around him, he's going to be great. But that's where I think the evaluation with young
quarterbacks becomes very fuzzy for me because I have to look at what the organization is doing.
And we have no control over what organizations do, you know, and neither do the players.
Like we've been in dysfunctional situations. I mean, you got to be really excellent to thrive in those
situations. And if we were really honest about it, we probably didn't thrive. We were just
good enough to navigate through. But our work wasn't the best when we were in a dysfunctional
situation. So with sports, we really put a lot of pressure, which is fair, and expectations on
young guys to come in and be awesome right away.
And I don't think it's boring to talk about how good the offensive line is. It's boring to talk
about how the organization is drafted. We just want to evaluate them and look at their numbers
and compare and make power rankings. But if we're really honest about it, most of these organizations
fail these young quarterbacks. Okay. so your original fandom was based on the upbringing of PA though, right?
Steelers.
And so the Miami thing, is it because you work there,
obviously the connection to your brother, but that's a new thing.
You're allowed, I guess, you know what?
I think you are allowed based on your unique dynamic
to have two NFL teams that you care about.
Normally, I think it's a big pushback,
but I think anyone that would tell you that,
I think that's kind of like, all right,
if you have somebody else whose brother is this special at some place,
and then you work in it, I think you're okay.
We're going to clear you here.
Not that you needed it from me, but I, you know.
I have a split jersey.
I have a Steelers, one of those split ones.
What other names or just the color?
The colors.
I'm joking.
Oh, you do? Okay.
You got me, Joy. It's so early.
I do not have one of those.
Yeah, I mean, I grew up in Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh
fans are obviously very passionate.
They wrap the babies in terrible
towels at the hospital
when they're born. It's like a cult. It's like a
sign to you.
What if you don't want that?
What if you want something more protective
of a newborn?
They still put them in the baby clothes. They just
draped the terrible towels over them.
Okay. I'm just saying.
Are they sanitized? Anyway, keep it moving.
I was also a Dan Marino guy
who's a pit guy.
I always had an affinity for the dolphins, but my But I was also a Dan Marino guy who's a Pitt guy. Okay.
So I always had an affinity for the Dolphins.
But my fandom, yes, was based off of my brother going there in 1997 when I was 10 years old.
So I grew up watching the Steelers.
And I continued to watch the Steelers.
It was 1997.
We're not on Sunday Ticket.
So watching the Steelers, but also obviously watching Jason in Miami
for 13 years of his 15-year career.
Had to watch the Washington football team.
Sorry, the Washington Commanders
and the New York Jets for a year during his career.
The Jets year was actually fun.
That was the Sanchez year,
AFC championship game against the steelers
and yes i rooted for the jets the funny thing is fans always like get get very funny about it
they're like wow how do you how can you root for the dolphins you're a steelers fan like i don't
know do you care like do you have a family that's a weird question like it's it's my family it's my
brother yeah like i think the other day was it was it marcus stream and the head coach of of Notre Dame, when they were playing at Ohio State and they showed his dad in the stands?
They're like, those are actually his season tickets because of the biggest Ohio State fans.
What is the dad going to do?
Huge third down stop against ND, get up in his Buckeyes gear and be like, yeah.
Of course, that's all temporary, man, when your kid or a brother is involved with that.
Yeah.
That would have been really weird to tell Jason, like, hey, sorry about the loss.
Yeah, but I'm really hyped for the Steelers.
Yeah, I was going to be so bummed out if you guys won.
Yeah, my college football weekends are insane now because Jason is coaching at the U.
And my nephew Mason is playing at LSU.
And my nephew Isaiah is playing at LSU and my nephew Isaiah is playing at Arizona.
So like my tweets are very insane.
I'm like, yeah, go Arizona football.
Let's go Tigers.
Who did you root for in college before all of this?
I mean, I always liked Miami.
So that was an easy one.
But yeah, it's weird.
I have three college football teams that I'm very closely watching this year.
But it's fun.
It's fun.
And it's also a flashback experience
because I forgot what it feels like
when you lose
and it's your family member's team.
However bad you feel as a fan,
it's indescribable how much worse it is
when someone like you actually care about
is on the team or coaches for the team.
It probably makes you better too
because it forces you to not watch the ball.
Yeah, you're watching everything.
Right, because I'm sure all you did
was watch your brother in the matchups.
And now I know you went to what?
Was it Arizona when they played San Diego State?
Yes.
You went to that game.
Was that during the heat wave too?
It was 110 degrees.
I felt bad because that stadium is really nice.
No one's there though, right?
It was just so hot.
It was sold out.
It was completely packed the first quarter, but it was unhealthy hot.
If you had kids out there, you couldn't sit out there.
I'm fine. I'm an adult. I'll go get some shade.
But it was really hot.
I don't mean to laugh about heat stroke or anything,
but it's just a classic example of social media
because people were posting pictures of how empty it was later on after the game.
Have you been to Baton Rouge then yet to see the other nephew
who's getting a ton of run right now too
as a freshman?
He's enormous, by the way, too.
I haven't been to Baton Rouge yet.
I'm planning on going to the Alabama game.
So, I mean, it's tricky, obviously,
because I'm in Los Angeles.
It's not the easiest place to get to.
But I've booked my flight
for the Bama LSU game.
So if I can figure out
the transportation
to get back to LA,
then I'm going to go.
But I mean,
I'm definitely going to go
to his games for sure.
Yeah, that's the best one.
That's the one I've gone every year
except for COVID
getting in the way of a couple of them.
There might have been
a Hartford flight situation too
that wasn't super easy.
You're trying to get to LA to Baton Rouge,
try Hartford Baton Rouge every single year.
Okay.
So I want to stay on this because I actually think this is,
this is,
you know,
you and I have talked about,
I've been on your radio show.
I obviously,
I was on with Colin a bunch of times when you were doing that.
Now that you've moved to speak,
I personally having so many female friends in the industry,
I think there's certain things that have happened over ESPN last few years where women are getting bigger opportunities, better opportunities.
I think a lot of the hosting stuff, the anchoring stuff that was traditionally like, oh, it's always going to be this guy or whatever, that has shifted.
But the opinion space for females is still, it hasn't been happening.
You are in an incredibly unique spot.
And I know how hard you've worked for it.
But the opinion part of this, the numbers, it's not even close.
You know what I mean?
It's still a very hard thing for a female to get those opinion spots.
How were you able to do it?
Well, it's been a long, long journey, obviously.
It's not something that happened overnight,
but I always wanted to do opinion. It was always my goal to be in the seat that I'm in now.
So I really intentionally shaped my career with jobs that would lead to this space.
So when young people ask for advice, I always ask them the same thing. What do you want
to do? Because when you're young, it's terrifying to say, I want to do this. I want to be a doctor.
I want to be a lawyer. I want to be a game show host. You feel like you're limiting yourself
because the world is just your oyster and it's fun that way. But if you really decide what you
want to do, you can intentionally make a path in a business that really doesn't have a traditional ladder.
So I loved radio growing up because I loved the ability to feel like you're in a room with people that you can't see.
Like a morning show driving in, obviously, I'm 35.
can't see. Like a morning show driving in, obviously, I'm 35. So radio was... Morning radio shows, you drive to school, you drive to work, and you create these relationships with your favorite
show. And a lot of that is through the personality that those kinds of shows would have. And so I
always really admired Oprah and Howard Stern and just the command that they had over their audience and their ability to know exactly what their brand was.
Because this is obviously back when brands were... Not everybody had a brand.
So I always wanted to get in radio because it was a long format platform and podcasts and YouTube Live and IG live and all that didn't exist.
And I felt that radio would give me the best platform to get to this space.
And it did. Because when you're doing sideline reporting or you're doing anchoring,
it's good to be seen, but you are not the story. You're delivering the story.
And I never wanted to be a reporter.
I wanted to be an opinionist. So my internships were in radio, both a music morning show. It was
a lot of talk and a sports radio morning show. And then I was a producer in radio and eventually
got a radio show in Miami. Obviously, I was doing radio as early as this summer and the show that I obviously
had with Fox Sports Radio on the weekends throughout the season last year and worked on
the biggest sports television radio simulcast with The Herd for the last three years.
So to me, that really helped put me in a space where people heard me giving my opinion, even if it wasn't
on a full-time opinion show. So that was always important to me. I took jobs that would help me
get to that space. I didn't take jobs that wouldn't help me get to that space.
And I also have been very blessed to work with some of the best opinionists in the business
in Colin and Skip Bayless and Shannon Sharp.
And I had a great opportunity working in Miami doing a radio show, a four-hour
morning drive radio show in a big local market that really helped me sharpen a lot of the tools
that I use now on the show.
So it's not obviously an
easy seat to get to. And I take it very seriously that I am one of the very few women in the
business that has a seat on an opinion show daily. But I feel confident about it because
that's what I've done for the past 15 years. And I also had a podcast, you know, years ago as well.
When I was doing Undisputed,
which obviously isn't a big speaking space,
although I would have moments on the show,
the podcast kept me giving opinions
and kept that muscle strong
while I was working in a space
that was giving me a big platform,
but wasn't necessarily giving me a big voice.
The Colin role is really tough. It's really tough, you know, because one,
he's doing his solo deal, which he's done, I would say as well as anybody longer than everybody.
It's just really hard in sports. I mean, I'm sure there's maybe somebody else I'm not thinking about. I'm not thinking about local. I'm talking nationally. And then you have to figure out how
to get in. I thought that
relationship grew and it got to like a
really comfortable space there. Of course, you're going to want
more. Give me the
behind the scenes version
of Colin that maybe
people don't know about. Or when Pete and your friends ask you
like, what's it like working with him? I'm obviously
very close to them. I try to explain
to people he's different,
but he's different in the best
way and that's what makes him so good at his job. But give me your favorite Colin stuff.
Well, Colin is... I think people... The misconception about Colin is that they
think Colin takes himself very seriously. And he doesn't. He doesn't. He's not that guy that is going to be walking around and is just
weird with people. He gets it. And that's really what is very, very charming about him to me.
We obviously got better the more that we did the show. But I had done the show a bunch before I actually moved there full time
because I was the fill-in person on The Hurt when I was on Undisputed.
So we really didn't have a huge adjustment as far as the beats of the show went.
But my role in the show evolved a lot over time.
And obviously, going through the pandemic and doing three hours a day,
five days a week with no games was an insane time. But it also kind of changed the dynamic of the show because we just had to talk.
We just had to make mouth sounds and fill this time in a really crazy space.
So he's...
First of all, he's like a very...
He's a very...
He's more of a sensitive guy than people know because he has a bunch of kids and he adores his wife.
And if you do a show with someone for five days a week for as long as we did, which is a three-hour show, you're spending a lot of time with people.
You go through things in life.
And he was really great with me when I was struggling with stuff.
And you still have to do the show every day,
even if you do have personal stuff going on
and still do a good show.
He's just a really good dude.
I feel really lucky to have worked with him
as long as I have
because he made my life really easy.
He's just a very laid back person to work with.
He doesn't care if you need
to take a day off to go see your family or if he needs to lean on me to talk for a couple minutes
because he just needs a breather. We got to a really good, comfortable space with the show
where it was very seamless. And a lot of that was just, he's just a good dude.
Like it was really a very,
the show itself was a very low stress experience
for a big network,
you know, huge simulcast show.
And that's because Colin is just a very low maintenance.
He's a low maintenance talent.
And that seems crazy because so many people have this opinion of him that he's a low maintenance talent um if if and that seems crazy because so many
people have this opinion of him that he's like he's like very i don't know like he just has
this opinion of himself and he really doesn't he's kind of a lot of different things at once
but at the same time like he's a really loyal friend and if you get to know him you're like oh
this guy's you know he's actually not.
I think you have to be an egomaniac to be really successful at this.
And all of us have egos.
But his isn't the type where you're just like, I can't stand being around you for 10 minutes.
You know, where there's other people where I'm like, dude, you could turn it off now.
Like, we're not, this isn't a download.
Like, there's going to be no downloads with this right now.
So we're good.
A couple other things before I let you get started on your day here. I, like you, started in local. And then for me, I was lucky. I was local for a very short time because I was desperate to get a job and I'd gotten laid off. And so
therefore I had to try out at ESPN where I never thought they were even going to listen to the
tape. I had to try out, boom, it worked out. You were local for a while in a big market though in Miami.
And it is kind of funny the difference between like when a local guy starts going crazy at
me because of something I say, part of me laughs more than I am upset because I'm just
like, yeah, because you're a local guy.
Like you lose your shit about anything that has to do and you take it personally and you think
you think it's like somebody decided to wake up today to be like let's just dump on this city
all right like this is just one big cycle the national person has one big cycle of all the
local markets thinking that it's specific about them i'm like actually you aren't special enough
for me to want to just go at you because Because I also remember being a local person going, this fucking guy, he hates us.
This is bullshit.
I think it was really important for me to have both experience to realize that everybody's just way more mad than they should be about the whole thing.
But you, I think, kind of went through that too a little bit.
You can just get away with way more being local. And then there's this kind of reset nationally where you're like, wait, it's not toning it down.. The loyalty that you have to display for local markets
is important to the fans there because that's what they care about. So your audience cares about
their local teams and they're loyal to their local teams. And anything that you say
that is negative or can be perceived as negative is going to be painted as the enemy and an attack on the city or the teams.
And to be fair to local markets,
sometimes it is.
Sometimes it is an actual vendetta
and you find out later what the real issue is.
But most of the time,
it's just the national people giving their opinion.
My adjustment, I think it's just the national people giving their opinion my adjustment i think has
been a little different because now it's not as it's not as taboo to have fandom you know i mean
like it's almost encouraged to be like hey my allegiance is with the dolphins and i grew up in
pittsburgh so i'm going to have you know some sensitivities to to these two teams and I'm going to be open about it.
No, this is a great, sorry to interrupt, but it's such a great point because when I first got started, it was still like you could tell the person that actually was from the area would almost go.
Everybody thought I hated Boston once I became the national guy, which isn't entirely true.
Locally, they thought I hated Boston, but national people would be like, wait, he's the Boston guy.
But if you actually really listen to him, I don't think any of that plays out.
Like you can overcorrect to the point of like, I used to be, again, when I was just a Red Sox fan,
I'd be annoyed with Carl Ravitch because I knew he was from Needham and he'd be on baseball tonight.
I'd be like, how come he's not a little nicer, a little more supportive about this?
And it was just so absurd. It was such a dumb way to feel, but I was a young guy that had never done the job.
So I'm sorry I interrupted, but I was a young guy that had never done the job. So I'm
sorry I interrupted, but it's shifted. You're right. It's totally shifted where it's actually
more fun, especially for the opinion people just go, Hey, this is who I'm into. This is what I'm
doing. So go ahead. Yeah. Like you, and I think the audience prefers that you be transparent about
it rather than that experience where you're like, I think they hate us. Why do they hate us? Or
why are they so sensitive to... Why are they always saying really nice things about this team,
even though I don't really like them that much and they're really not that good?
Like, yeah, because I'm from there or because this has been my experience. This is my team
and I'm just going to be open about it. So I think the business has shifted a lot over the last
10 years where you just of just have to be
honest about where your allegiances lie. And it actually makes for a better show because then
people aren't fantasizing about what you hate or what you love and they just know it. And then they
can consume your material in a way that makes sense to them as opposed to it being hostile.
But yeah, I mean, the national thing also, I think it's not so much about being careful.
It's just when you do local, you're so hyper-focused on those teams and what pertains
to that particular area. And when you do national, obviously, you're talking about teams that you
really didn't cover that closely, or there's not nuances that you aren't getting into
with the fan base that only that region knows about.
So you're kind of just...
You're not going as deep.
You know what I mean?
So the passion and the insanity that we have as sports fans
is not going that far because that's not your experience.
There's things, there's nuances to the team
and history with the team that you've watched and been passionate about for your whole life that a national person who's just talking about the story is just not going to know.
Right. So that means now, you know, you've got, this is a good moment for you and the two people out there. Thank you for taking it easy on me, uh, considering what happened on last week's pod. But, but, we'll see how these next few weeks go.
All right?
Because I haven't, I'm not, I'm not, you know,
it's going to take a little bit more than 30 minutes
for me to go, hey, I'm totally wrong.
It takes me about four,
it'll have to be like four straight games.
You know, it's probably even longer
than I have been being totally honest with myself.
Well, look, this is the business
and we react week to week like maniacs to everything
that's going on we've already got the super bowl sharpied in and we know it's a very long year and
every single year we do this i will say i am not a i am not a zealot about the Miami Dolphins. I am not surprised by how Tua is performing.
As I explained earlier,
there are things you need to do to support young quarterbacks
in order for them to be successful.
It's not about Tua.
It's more about the trauma of watching this team
have moments of success
and then squander them by doing something Dolphiny.
And I actually think the fan base
is pretty split
on what's happening with the team.
I don't think it's because they don't believe
in the players. I think it's because
they're having the same experience as me
that every time
the Dolphins start to have some sort of success,
they find some way to mess it up.
It's like,
why are you doing this to us again?
And they build all this momentum
and they have all this success and then they blow it up
or something happens. So
that's more along the lines of where I think
the Dolphins fans
are split on what's happening right now.
There are fans, I'm sure
you know about 2 and On. I'm aware.
Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
So there's like that group.
And then there's all the other Dolphins fans
that are like, hey, love our win this week.
Let's see what happens next week
against the Bills in division
who just squished the Titans like bugs
and who's not a bad team.
They look unbelievably dominant.
Let's see how it goes this week.
And then maybe a couple weeks from now
before I start freaking out.
And that's not fun.
That's just not a fun fan experience.
It was a lot more fun after last week.
And you know what?
That part of it's like
wait this might actually be real into year three which is i think the excitement around the whole
thing because you had that's also the trauma because then you're not worried about the trauma
well it's just a toxic relationship you're like okay i know this dude is lying to me because he's
always lies to me but maybe this time he's not lying to me and then the worst thing that could
happen is this time he's actually not lying to you
because he's definitely going to lie to you
for the next five times
because he got you to believe this time.
And that's like the relationship
of being a Miami Dolphins fan.
It's like every five to six times
they're telling the truth.
That sounds like just a bad run on Hinge,
to be honest with you.
So I don't know what you,
what are we talking about anymore?
You can see Joy every day, 4.30 with you. So, I don't know what we're talking about anymore. You can see Joy every day,
4.30 Eastern to 6 Eastern,
right on Speak. Thank you so much, Joy.
We're big fans. Appreciate it.
Thanks, Ryan.
Worst take
on the podium. So, what do we have on the podium?
Because last week was the first one,
so we now have to figure out if any will be replaced.
It's going to be tough.
Our initial podium was number one was the Gilbert Arenas, Giannis thing, which is, man, that's going to be it's going to be here for a long time.
Number two was Bart Scott on multiple Chiefs takes, including that no one's afraid of Patrick Mahomes in the division anymore.
And number three was the Kendrick Perkins, Patrick Beverly and Russell Westbrook could be the best backcourt defensively in the league next year.
Yeah.
Did I even mention that when we did the Arenas thing,
I listened to him then on NBA radio.
Did I mention that on the air?
You did.
I did.
Okay, right.
He still had Giannis as the second best player in the NBA.
So I was actually more confused the more I heard from Arenas.
We need to get him back on again at some point,
because I did enjoy him quite a bit as a guest okay so uh the goal of this is do we have
any submissions that replaces any of those on the podium from this week it feels a little early
feels a little early for this uh okay so you go first wasn't the biggest hot take week this was
actually from last week we had just missed it because i think it came a day after we did no
rules no rules our first take uh this is this is mad dog and steven a arguing and the reason this isn't going to make
the this isn't going to make the podium but i just want to play it because it's another like laser
beams pointed at earth like life depends on it take and uh so this is mad dog and steven a talking
about kirk cousins versus lamar jackson life on the line oh god God. Kirk Cousins or Lamar Jackson? In a big game on the road. Lamar
Jackson all day, every day ahead of Kirk Cousins. Cousins is underrated. Listen, listen, I want,
I want, is that water check? What are you drinking this morning? If you think that Kirk Cousins is
Lamar Jackson. He's made a lot of money in the NFL. Kirk Cousins or Lamar Jackson, what's up
with you? So yes, Mad Dog would take Kirk Cousins over Lam lamar jackson one game your life depends on it uh
it's not the hottest take in the world but it's an asinine take like come on i'm gonna make a
motion that that should replace the pat beth russell westbrook backcourt yeah i mean that's
so bad i know cousin says that saints game from a few years ago in the playoffs um and lamar's
playoff record is not uh what you would want it to be
for somebody that's MVP.
It gets put, but I mean, at this point, by the way,
the part of that Dolphins game that was lost,
that was as precise as I think I've seen Lamar in a long time.
And he does not run.
He runs as this backup plan to all the other stuff that he's going through.
There's just too many quarterbacks.
There's a lot of quarterbacks.
There's really more in college.
And it just drives me nuts.
One read, I'm out.
One read, I'm out.
I don't think it's sustainable.
I think I saw it a little bit with Kyler.
I thought Lamar was actually really good.
Although that last series when they needed them to keep the chains moving,
it wasn't great.
But, yeah, I don't know.
That's my
position you know this is a tribunal here so you know whatever all right kyle come later yeah my uh
i i promised i was crowd sourcing this and if you guys aren't good in the crowd i'm not gonna have
anything so this is uh just step it up guys week i got a bunch of emmanuel acho wasn't really
interested in any of that stuff um it's more just like, why'd you say that? Not like, oh my God, are you serious?
So I didn't really want to do that.
So I think we just, I don't know if Bart Scott's getting knocked off,
but if there is a chance, it's going to be this right here.
I'll say something that I don't think is going to be popular with Miami fans.
Do you want me to get aggressive?
Do you want me to share a take I'm afraid to share?
Something you think about at home and write down in your legal pad and go,
I can't say this after week one.'m gonna say i feel like two was a backup
had to be done uh needed to be done would have been disappointed had it not been done
i because i almost i was gonna i'm glad i didn't go i'm glad the order because i needed to bring
it up i'm all i'm all for if you guys want to vote it to bring it up. I'm all, I'm all for,
if you guys want to vote it to put it on the podium,
I don't think it's better than what else is up there.
It's just,
it should definitely had to be played in this segment.
I think.
Yeah.
I got to tell you,
hearing it back though,
I was,
I was really fair.
I was really fair about it.
I think I'm even calling myself out a little bit with that one.
There was,
there was some selective editing on that.
Cause afterwards you obviously go on to be like,
I love Tua.
I love him in Alabama.
I want him to be great.
There is a little bit of creative aggregating there.
That's like the Jared Goff.
No, that's like the Jared Goff video
that I did get pissed about
because I was like,
you guys edited this to make it look like
this was the only angle of the Goff discussion
and it ended up on some Rams fan blog
and then it ended up on freezing cold takes
and i was like you guys are using an edited video of this again i didn't respond to it because you're
just going to look like a loser by even trying to suggest yeah so uh my take on this my take on this
is simply that it's not it could be horrible in a year it isn't right now no yes yeah i think i No way. Yes. Yeah. I think that's the way you play it out. Okay. Mine is, there's a lot going on with this Whitlock Joe Burrow thing.
There's a lot going on.
But to call him a high class Josh Rosen, when Rosen has shown, like, it didn't work, man.
Didn't work, didn't work multiple places. It didn't work and it didn't work man didn't work didn't work multiple places it didn't work
and it didn't work quickly okay
Burrow
what he did last year with that Cincinnati
team to get them to the Super Bowl
that to me is like I always kind of like
giving LeBron a half a ring for the
2007 Cavs getting to the NBA Finals
that's maybe a
three ace of a ring for Burrow
to get Cincinnati through
the AFC to win at Kansas City.
You can't compare the two guys.
You cannot compare
Burrow and Josh Rosen.
Fair? Period.
Right. There you go.
I don't even know what else to add.
Let's vote on it.
I don't think the Burrell-Rosen thing
is good enough to replace anything on the podium, but I
did see it going. That was just so far.
Again, there's way more to that that I'm just
not going to deal with at this point.
I'm okay if you guys want
the Tua thing on the podium.
I don't know what it knocks off. Mark Scott has to stay
because we're talking about Patrick Mahomes here,
not Tua, so I think that one's
kind of firmly planted still.
It does dethrone the Perkins take.
I don't think your Tua one does.
You kind of talked to me a little bit
into the Kirk Cousins-Lamar one.
I still think the Perk one is worse
because Ross is a terrible defender.
He's been a terrible defender for most of his career.
To say that this is going to be the best backcourt
of two guys that hate each other, who might
not even ever play together, I
still don't think that. I think that still beats Kirk Cousins
over Lamar Jackson.
Kyle, deciding vote.
I think it
sticks. I think it
still, I think we're still right where we left off.
Okay, that's great.
That's very efficient. Nothing replaced
on the podium this week for Worst Take.
I'm really excited about our guest.
He's a legend.
He's done a lot of great things.
We'll run through the resume here real quick.
Ray Dalio, who is not only an author,
manages one of the biggest hedge funds in the world,
Bridgewater & Associates,
philanthropist, over $6 billion in funding.
His book Principles, Life and Work,
sold over four and a half million copies. And now the book that I just finished, Principles, Life and Work, sold over 4.5 million copies.
And now the book that I just finished,
Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order,
Why Nations Succeed and Fail,
is a focus of what we're going to do here.
So, Ray, good day to you.
Thanks for doing this.
I'm looking forward to it.
So, you know, I've read Principles.
I've read this book.
And we got a chance to talk for a little bit
prior to the interview.
I want to go back in time to kind of understand the foundation of your interest,
of your investment strategies, sharing these principles with so many other people.
I feel like a lot of us have this moment in time where our life changes. And sometimes we know when it happens. But I think there's a lot of times you don't realize. There's a thing that
happens. You're interested. You discover it. And then you can point back to it and go, you know what? That's the thing that made me change the way I thought.
That's something that changed my interest and put me down this path. What was that for you?
Oh, there were two of them that I think. First of all, when I was 12, I caddied and I fell in love with the markets. So it was the 60s, the stock market was hot.
I bought people I was caddying for, talked about stocks, and I would make $6 a bag. If I got $50,
I'd put it in the stock market. And the first stock I bought was the only company I ever heard of that was selling for less than $5 a share.
I figured I could buy more shares.
So if it went up, I'd make more money.
It was a dumb strategy.
But I was lucky because the stock tripled because it was about to go bankrupt and some company acquired it.
I thought this game is easy.
And I got hooked on the game.
We're talking about games. We all play our own games, our own sports. I thought this game is easy and I got hooked on the game, right?
We talk about games.
We all play our own games, our own sports.
That was my thing.
So that was then.
Then in fast forward, 1982, biggest mistake I made, most painful mistake, one of the best things that ever happened to me.
And that was a turning point. I had calculated in 1980-81, I had calculated that American banks had lent a lot more money to
foreign countries than those countries were going to be able to pay back with the type money,
and that there was going to be a big debt crisis. And I got a lot of attention for
and I got a lot of attention for anticipating this.
And it happened.
August 1982, Mexico defaults on its debt.
Another country's hollow.
I thought the stock market was going to go down a lot.
That was the exact bottom of the stock market that went up a lot.
I lost money for me.
I lost money for my clients.
I was so broke that I had to borrow $4,000 from my dad to help pay for family bills. And that was a terribly painful experience. And that changed my whole approach to decision making.
Humility I needed to balance with my audacity to make me think, you know, I could be wrong.
How do I know whether I'm going to be wrong or right?
And what I did by it, it gave me that humility, gave me the open-mindedness to try to find the smartest people I could find who would disagree with me to stress test my thinking, and it taught me how I could reduce my risks by a factor of five without reducing my returns by diversifying wealth. It changed my whole approach to life.
So those two points, I have a principle. One of my main principles is that pain plus reflection
equals progress. In other words, I've come to believe that when there's a message in pain, and when you get that message, it tells you something about how the world really works that you better pay attention and learn about.
And then I would write down a principle for dealing with that situation. Again, I literally would write it down in a journal and accumulated those principles
because of that experience.
So those were my two big ones.
My life, I wouldn't be in the game I'm in.
I wouldn't be succeeding at the game I'm in.
And I wouldn't have had the approach to life that I'm describing,
which not only has helped me in the investment business, my particular game, but it's helped
me in life. It's the same principles that I use in every, all of my decision-making. It could be
taking care of my health or something. Right. The reason I enjoyed this book so much is,
you know, it got me thinking about things in a different way. You know, we all kind of have our
different financial philosophies and what we think this is all going.
A lot of us, certainly, you're more educated on it than I am, but I love your love for history and trying to figure out some of this other stuff.
So before we get to the six stages of kind of how a society works, how an empire works, which I think is really telling for where we're at right now in the United States, can you explain kind of three cycles of the precursor to these six stages? There are three big things that are happening now
that never happened in our lifetimes like now, but happened many times in history.
And I learned a long time ago that the things that surprised me often were things that didn't
happen in my
lifetime before but happened in history. So, for example, I studied the Great Depression,
and because I did that, I was able to anticipate the 2008 financial crisis, and we did well in it.
And those three things are the amount of debt that we have and debt creation, the production of debt, and the amount of money printing
to finance that debt. And that is producing our stagflation. And so I needed to study that
in history. The second is the amount of internal conflict that we're having.
We have the largest wealth gaps. We have the largest values gaps. We have the largest
political gaps, the least coordination. You have to go back to 1900. I'd like to measure everything.
And there is a situation here where those populism of the left and populism of the right
and fighting over those things can even threaten our democracy
because there's even questions of how will either side accept losing the major election.
And so that's a big thing. It'll have a big effect. It is having a big effect.
And it'll have more, I think. And the third factor is the changing world order because the changing of a dominant power relative to competing powers, particularly China.
In other words, 1945, the United States won World War II.
It accounted for half the world economy.
It had 80% of the world's money.
Gold was money then.
And it was a dominant power, much less so today.
Now it's comparable.
There are other powers.
And so you're seeing a difference in world power dynamics that is reflected in the Ukraine war, the rise of China, and so on, that is producing greater conflict. And that has knock-on effects
because, well, you could see the war with the Ukraine has that effect. If we had something
comparable with China, it would have an order of magnitude effect that's much larger.
So those three factors are new. And I went back and I studied them and I saw that they repeated
throughout history. What causes the rises and declines of empires and the rises and declines
of wealth and so on? So that was what I needed to study. I needed to go back 500 years. It sounds
like a real long time, but it actually isn't. And you watch these rises and
declines. And I put that out, not just in the book. The study I did, I didn't do because I
wanted to write a book or do a study. I did it because I needed to make decisions now.
And I put that out in the book, but I also put it out in a free video called The Changing World Order. Anybody
can watch it on YouTube. So that's the reason I did it. Those are the three forces. And if we
look at everything today that's happening, really how things will turn out will be largely driven
by those. Yeah. And it's 22 million views on YouTube for people that want to check it out.
And I love that you went to the 1500 and it was just sort of random, but I started reading the latest Magellan book.
And you can feel like 500 plus years is such a long time ago, but there's so many similarities.
There's so many similarities. And anything that I've read historically from that point on,
I'm constantly reminded how we're not that different. You know, the way the media would work,
the way investing, you know,
we're investing in different things,
but we're talking about Magellan
at the beginning of this time in the world's history
of like, all right, I'm going to get some investors.
I'm going to get on a boat.
I'm going to start sailing around
and see what we can come back with.
And there'll be a return on the investment
if this boat stays afloat
and we come back with rare, you know, spices or, you know, whatever, whatever you want to talk about regarding trade.
Exactly. And it's so cool because, you know, the world changed.
They much the way the world's changing.
It used to be before then it was agriculture.
If everybody thought wealth was, um, I have a property and there was a certain power structure, the nobles, the royalty.
And it was agriculture.
And then we entered the age of exploration.
I mean, a whole different discovery.
Like, you can go and get to these places and you can take all this wealth.
And just as you described it, it was a financial transaction.
Hey, I'll fund your endeavor. and then you go get the wealth.
And it changed who was powerful, changed who had the money, and it was no longer the landowners.
And just like that, continued on so that they invented then capitalism, was invented by the Dutch the first time.
Then everybody can get into the action first stock
market and then then we had the industrial revolution individuals could make money and
you could invest in those individuals and so on and it brings us up to today so yeah it's the same
story you know it's almost uncanny to me like I it. It's the same story that happens over and over again.
Just, it seems to me like just the clothes that people are wearing and their technologies,
they're using change, but basically the story remains the same.
It's so true. And there's a million examples. And so taking that, and I don't know if the number,
if it was 29 empires or 31 empires that you studied, and it starts just repeating over and over again, as you point out in the book, the different charts.
Hey, this one's on the way up, and now it's on the way down.
So that leads to the kind of the six stages that I was talking about.
I don't know if this is a time, Ray, where you think it's good to kind of transition over to that.
I'd be happy to describe it because it's a pattern that happens over and over again.
There's an order.
An order is a way of doing things, a system.
We have a democratic, constitutionally based order, and we have capitalism.
Those are our systems.
And then there's a cycle.
So here's how it begins.
Most importantly, the world order.
usually very large wealth gaps and a lot of economic stress due to too much debt, too much spending, quite often a difference in values leads, and by the way, acts of nature
play a role into this. Droughts, floods, and pandemics have also created that stress,
creates a conflict between two sides. And so you start to see that those two sides become more and
more opposed and polarized, and populism begins to emerge. A populist is an individual who will fight for my side and not lose, that will win at
all costs and fight for my side. And so you see that in the French Revolution, the Russian Revolution,
the Chinese Revolution, the Cuban Revolution, all of those, you get this polarity developing,
and then you have a conflict. That can happen domestically or
internationally. The last time we change, that leads to a war. Who's got the power? Because
being polite and going to believe in the legal system and following all the rules is not as
important as winning at all costs. And that last happened in 1945. So 1945 was the end of World War II and the beginning of the existing world order. We won the war. The United States did. It accounted for 80% of the world's money. The things I mentioned before, it was a dominant power.
That's why the United Nations is in New York. The World Bank, IMF are in Washington, D.C. That was the world dominant order during and after the war.
Nobody wants to fight again. And there's also a big restructuring.
You write down the debts you add and it's a great equalizer.
And so people come back and you enter a period of peace and prosperity.
And because you've done the restructuring and the people working together, and that's the most
prosperous period. And as you have that advances in that prosperous period, living standards rise,
it's the best. So if you take the post-World War II period and you carry that forward,
you know, that was the best. Stock market's the best, everything's the best. So if you take the post-World War II period and you carry that forward, that was the best.
Stock market's the best. Everything's the best. But that power becomes a dominant world power.
And because it's a dominant world power, it's money, is the world's money. So you can go back
to the Dutch or the British or the Americans, And you could see that when they carried that money
around with them, when they paid, it became a world's money and it became the world's reserve
currency. And that caused others to want to have it and save in it. And when they save in it,
then that lets the country lend in it. And as they become also richer, they become more expensive.
And then along the way, other countries learn to become more competitive. So for example,
in that age of exploration, the Dutch invented the best ships to go around the world,
and they brought their military, and they were the great explorers. They brought back great wealth and so on. They became more expensive as they got richer. They worked differently. They
didn't work as hard. They began to enjoy life and so on. And the British invented, learned from them
and then made better ships cheaper. And so you see the British empire begin to emerge. And then you
see the conflict between the Dutch and the British. They fight. And then you have the dominant British Empire, the emergence and the Japanese. And then they got into financial trouble. And the United
States came out of that as the beginning of the world empire. So you start to see that happen.
And you also start to see as they get richer, that everybody believes in that the future will
be a bright, the stock market goes up and so on. And people will more and more borrow money in order
to make investments in stocks and so on, or they'll be confident in the prosperity and they'll
get overly indebted. And then also, it distributes wealth differently. So in all of those cases,
large wealth gaps emerge because the process distributes wealth differently.
And that can create resentments and can create a situation where even the system isn't as
fair.
It's not as much equal opportunity in order, let's say, in education and those types of
things. So then you get to the point where there's much
greater, there are worse financial conditions that exist because that country has borrowed a lot of
money. It's become less competitive. So a classic measure of that is what share of GDP do you have
or what share of world trade do you have? For example, China has surpassed the United States in having a larger share of world trade
and is about comparable in terms of its size economically.
So it's clearly a rival.
And then you have competitions on those technology, just like we're having right now with China.
And then you have those issues in terms of internal conflict over debt and money, and then you get
to the conflicts. And the conflicts is a combination of a financial crisis and financial wars between
countries. So you're seeing the very classic case right now of, let's say, as we take sanctions, or you take the financial economic war that is existing between
the Ukraine and NATO countries in terms of cutting off gas to Europe and so on,
you see all of that develop. And so then you have the conflict, because you have irreconcilable differences. In other words, people, as these cycles progress, they become
more and more alienated. The middle is not accepted. It's no longer accepted. You have
to pick a side and be on that side. Traditionally, that's been the case. The middle, it becomes less
and less, and the fight becomes more intense, and it then becomes dysfunctional.
There were, for example, in the 30s, four major democracies.
There were democracies with parliaments and congresses, and four major democracies chose to become dictatorships because the internal conflict was so debilitating.
So that's what a typical arc is like.
That doesn't mean it's destined,
but it means that you have to follow that arc.
And what I did in the book,
and the study turned to the book,
is I measure everything.
You can measure all of these things with numbers.
So you can see it in an objective graph. It's like going in and seeing a health exam. You go to your doctor, you take your blood test, your urine analysis and all that, and you could see the condition. economic warfare, the wealth gaps, the internal.
The main thing is, do you come to the physical military fighting on either side?
When blood starts to be spilled, you're beyond reconciliation.
And so we're seeing a bit of that, of course, related to the Ukraine. We're moving to different geographic areas.
It's changing the economics of states and so on.
That's a long-winded explanation of how the typical cycle works.
So you can, with that numbers, as you watch these charts and you show the charts, you
can see objective measures.
There are then 18 measures that I put together that you can see.
For example, education.
Are you improving your education or worsening your education relative to other countries?
Are you improving your productivity or worsening your productivity?
Are you improving your financial balances, your income statement, and your balance sheet of the country or worsening that? Are you improving your infrastructure or not? Those are all measurable
and that's what we see in those charts and that's the pattern. You have the United States in stage
five. You threw out a couple numbers there where I think you were like, how likely, as you mentioned,
you can measure all of this. How likely is the United States to have some sort of internal actual civil conflict?
You put it at 30%.
You have other markers for domestic conflict between 16, I guess it goes zero to 100%,
but you have the United States kind of in that 60 to 80 or 80.
Basically, what I'm getting at here, Ray, is that you could say 30% slow as I concerned.
In fact, to me say 30% slow as I concerned. In fact,
to me, 30% felt high. And I guess I could argue, well, is the sensibility of a developed society today different, even that much more different just 100 years later, that it wouldn't lead to
this? But whether it's the wealth gap, the educational gap, which is probably more damning
because of the long-term losses that you're setting generations at.
It's very alarming that the United States, based on your models and your projections,
is on the other side of prosperity, stage five, with another global power like China.
It just feels rather ominous when you get through the 500 pages of the book.
Well, I think the first question is, is it accurate or not?
I think that that's the most important question in terms of the measurements.
And I don't think, and nothing's precise, but I think it is accurate to say that our
financial condition has deteriorated a lot, meaning we're spending a lot more than we
are earning. We are building up a lot of debt. That debt, one way or another, will either have
to be paid back in hard money or will have to be monetized and depreciated. It's not exaggerating to say our infrastructure has deteriorated in terms of
that. Certainly relative to other countries, there's been a big rise also in other countries'
conditions. And it's certainly the case that if we were to look at, let's say, education measures,
you can look at those. And I can go through a number of those.
I don't think it's a doubt that the United States' relative power to where it was in 1945 has
deteriorated much. And I think that the internal conflict measures, you can measure, for example,
conflict measures. You can measure, for example, votes across party lines. They are the lowest since 1900 in terms of political fragmentation. You could look at the voting records and you
could see that they are the most polarized. The left is the most left. The Democrats would be the
most liberal that they've been. The Republicans are the most conservative that they've been, those things. And so I think it's a reality. Now, the question is, if it's concerning,
I think that's a good thing, that it's concerning. I have a principle,
if you worry, you don't have to worry. And if you don't worry, you need to worry. Because if you
worry about some of these things, then you'll deal with them. You'll compensate. You'll be
better off. You'll invent ways of dealing with them. If you don't worry, if we don't worry about
our togetherness, our financial health, our conflicts with each other and our conflicts with others,
and we don't worry about those things, then you'll probably continue to follow the pattern.
I can't anticipate the future knowing what it's like. I mean, meaning I've seen the arc,
I've seen it play out over, and I create the dot plot, and I just then put in numbers as they're transpiring.
And it's correct, objectively, that it is in that stage. Now, the question is, is that accurate or
not? Well, you can look at the measures, you can judge for yourself. There are still many good
things that exist. There's a lot of inventiveness, creativity. And the United States has been a wonderful
country. I've lived the American dream in terms of there's no country in the world that the people
can come to from all over the world and they can be citizens and they can be effective. And there's
property protection and rule of law and all of these
things that are wonderful things uh but still there is that dynamic that can be confusing
if you don't measure it and plot it and so i the measurements and the plots speak for themselves
i have a few more things that i want to get to here uh quickly warren buffett once said
years ago the luckiest person in history is American child right now. Your book makes me think you would disagree with that.
Yeah, I would disagree. I would disagree in 1949. What a tailwind I have had. I was born,
and he was born a few years before that. We were born at the, when the United States was on top,
on top when there was the wave that we have had to be the most wonderful country in terms of opportunity.
I experienced that equal opportunity.
I was, you know, the basics.
I had two parents who loved me, took care of me.
I went to a public high school that was a good public high school, and I came out to
a world of equal opportunity. I think a good public high school. And I came out to a world of equal
opportunity. I think that's all anybody needs. And I think that by any measure, all of those
have deteriorated. So, yeah, no, this generation is led with my generation having screwed things
up a lot, leaves them with a lot of debt and leaves them with a broken down infrastructure.
You know, some countries, like I went to Singapore, they have saved a lot.
So rather than have a debt, they have assets and their budget, 20 percent of their budget is paid for by the money that they're earning on their investments because they're creditors.
We have this debt burden that is a bad debt burden, a broken down infrastructure.
We're at each other's throats.
Now, I think that being born today, of course, there are benefits.
There's better technology.
There's better health care. There's better technology, there's better health care,
there's better other things, you know, wonderful. But the conflict and the issues and where we are
in the cycle, I think is much worse today. In terms of let's say that opportunity, the prospects
for peace are much worse today than they were when Warren Buffett was born or than I was born.
Okay. Let's get to something that I think is going to matter even more to the audience. And that is,
as you mentioned in the book, and I'll just share here, some of the debt cycles you talk about,
we're kind of at that expiration date based on your projections from where we were in the 40s
to now. The printing of money, which is hammered home as the easiest option.
It's the most pain-free until it's clearly the most painful. And you're right on it,
obviously, as you know, it's an abrupt devaluation here. What are you telling your investors about
the future? What is your game plan? What are you telling somebody who's listening now,
who's either young in his 20s and trying to figure out what to do or somebody who starts to watch those retirement ads and gets a little bit more emotional or upset about where they're currently positioned? What are you telling a broad base of investors and how to prepare themselves for the future? a few things.
Debt assets like cash and bonds
will have negative,
likely to have significantly
negative real returns
because,
so pay attention
to what your returns are
after adjusting for inflation.
Don't look at just nominal returns.
So if you earn 3% in a bond and the inflation rate is 8%, think I've lost 5%.
So pay attention to inflation in your returns.
in your returns. And then number two, I believe that debt assets, like bonds and so on, and cash,
money market funds, are probably not going to be good assets because of the fact that those debts are a burden. And the central bank has got to make it either good for the debtor or good for the creditor. And in the long run, to devalue those is probably going to be the path.
So that's another point. Another point is don't try to be tactical. Don't try to play the game.
Point is, don't try to be tactical.
Don't try to play the game.
And so instead of trying to get in and out based on what you think, you're not going to win that game.
You're probably going to lose that game.
You'll probably want to sell when things are bad and you're nervous.
And you probably want to buy when things are booming and you think that that's great.
You could see that happening, for example, in the tech, or you could see it happen in Bitcoin. You know, you see certain things, they become very, very, very hot and people don't pay attention to the price. And so
when, you know, so buy when things are bad, if you're going to do it, and sell when things are
good, do the opposite. But by and large, don't try to time it, but instead have a well-diversified portfolio. So think about,
what are inflation hedge assets and how do they balance with stocks and bonds? And also,
think about that also a bit globally. So those would be the advice. I would say also invest in the things that
you know and need first. You know, if you're in a profession or you're in, you know, if you own a grocery store or whatever it is, and you know it,
then that's a good thing to invest in because you probably have that understanding.
And your home or the things that you need, like home ownership, by and large, is a good asset.
You improve it over a period of time, it produces forced savings, and it works tax-wise.
So you start with that.
I would say also, just do a simple exercise of, say, how much money do I have?
And divide it by the rate at which you spend it.
And ask yourself, how long will that last? Okay. You have a certain
pool if money didn't come in. And I think that if you start to think, you know, how many years of,
um, uh, of I'm going to be okay if money didn't come in, um, is a good thing to have. I went through that. I didn't have money.
And I went through that cycle. And I remember feeling good when I got to about three years.
If I said, I know money came in and I got three years worth of savings. And I felt good when I
had one year. Because when I got one year, I know that that's enough wiggle room to figure it out.
So whether it's one year or two years, three years or whatever, and make that secure, because when you have that element that you have that, then you know that no matter what happens, you're going to be okay.
In other words, you can figure it out.
It's the person who gets down to a limited amount of months or just a couple of months and you can take a hit.
Just imagine what the situation would have been if those checks didn't come in for a lot of people and a lot
of companies. So to be able to be secure like that, and then you have to take that money
and that you have to save it or invest it well. Everybody's an investor because everybody who's
got some savings has got to put it into something and that that makes them investors. So diversify, look at the returns in real terms,
and really think, have less risk in inflation-adjusted terms,
have less risk when you don't have as much,
and then you can go take more risk once you get past
whatever your time horizon is of having enough money.
I want to tell you how much I appreciate you spending the time and also appreciate the amount
of work that you've put into this. And I think one of my favorite things about your books, Ray,
is that you question your own knowledge. And I remember having that moment in my life where I
was like, the more I read, I was like, wait, am I really dumb? Do I know nothing? Because as I
kept reading more and more i would i would start
questioning everything i thought about things and i love that you do that that's one of the
keys i found to my success in terms of like that that that um whatever success i've had in life
has been more due to my knowing how to deal with what I don't know than anything I know.
Okay?
And the ways you can do that is two ways.
You can have other stress test your thinking, find the smartest people who disagree with you,
and also diversify.
Because diversification will not lower your returns.
You can take equally good returning assets or investments, but they're in different places.
And it could reduce your risk to 20% of what it would be if you didn't diversify without reducing your returns.
If you know how to do those types of things, it'll help you a lot.
It'll help you a lot.
For people that want more, I would encourage you to check out the book, Changing World Over, Ray Dalio, and also the website, economicprinciples.org, almost a companion piece to all the stuff
that we've talked about.
Ray, this has been a pleasure.
I hope you had fun.
Thanks so much.
Thanks for asking.
Thank you for also helping me communicate.
I'm at a phase in my life where the most important thing I can do is try to pass along some of the things that helped me.
So thank you for helping me do that.
You want details? Bye.
I drive a Ferrari 355 Cabriolet.
What's up?
I have a ridiculous house in the South Fork.
I have every toy you could possibly imagine.
And best of all, kids, I am
liquid.
So, now you know what's possible.
Let me tell you what's required.
LifeAdvice. LifeAdviceRR at gmail.com
Staying with the investment
topics from today.
We had
an email here that said, like a year ago,
I asked about advice for investing
in inheritance until things cleared up so
they could buy a house in Japan.
Ryan's advice was quote,
don't do anything and don't ask a sports show.
It's good advice.
I just want to let you know,
I followed his advice and made 4 million yen. Four smackaroos.
4 million yen.
What's the translation there?
Well,
the exchange rate, he said
it was 105 to the dollar.
Now it's 140. So I think
the yen today,
is it a thousand
yen to just under
$7?
So he said how many yen?
Four, 4 million yen.
So he said the exchange rate.
So if you go, it's about 20, 20, 27,000, 28.
Hey, well, you're welcome.
Yeah.
You are welcome, man. It it was easy that was an easy one
ex-wife beach house
44 years old 5'7 200 pounds i take a brisk walk with my dog each morning
this may be a good question for kyle as he is a child of divorce
kyle you got your you got your divorce overalls on?
Yeah, I'm perked up.
My ex and I do not get along.
She cheated on me
and married my friend.
Fuck.
Slash neighbor.
Oh, come on.
I was thinking about this
the other day.
This has nothing to do
with the email.
There needs to be
a different category
of quarterback fuck-ups like the Carsonon wentz stuff or jamis winston um that's the weird
thing about kirk cousins monday night game is that i don't think he's any good i've never thought he's
good i always thought he's kind of like fraudulent stack guy and he was just he wanted slay to have
a pick so fucking bad he's like have another one please take another one
like that was people are kind of doing this primetime kirk thing but i felt like it was
still the primetime andy dalton thing was far worse than even primetime kirk i just don't think
kirk is that good i think he's just you know even though last year he had better moments i was
looking for him anyway my point is this is we need a new category that's not just interceptions it's
called my wife hooked up with Place. Like, just devastating.
There's nothing
you can fucking do.
There's no coming back.
And so,
I know you'd have to,
it'd be what,
M-W-H-M-Ds?
And it's just a new category
on the sort tab,
NFL.com, ESPN.com.
Wentz has them.
Where, like,
if you look at Wentz,
if you did a blind resume
of Carson Wentz's season last year,
you'd go, oh, that guy was pretty good.
No, he wasn't.
They couldn't wait to get him out of there.
I also think it's part of his personality.
They want him out of the building, all those things.
But we need a new category where it is a turnover by a quarterback
that is like you're not recovering from it.
Just like if your wife ever sat down and was like,
hey, last week got a little loose.
I need to tell you something. I hooked up with your dad. There's no way. It's not an interception.
Not all interceptions are created equal. Anyway, moving on. This guy's wife left him for his friend
and neighbor. There's a lot to unpack and lots of details to include along the way, but the major
points to include are that while we were married, I took on the role of primary parent
to our kids, so instead of pursuing a more lucrative
career in my 20s, I became a teacher
while she kept her corporate job. As a result,
when the divorce happened, there was an obvious income
disparity, especially since her current
husband makes well over six figures too.
There is just bitterness
oozing out of the internet reading this one.
With some big boy decisions,
hard work, and some good luck, I've closed the gap a a little but she still has the boat the pool etc how does she have
the pool she has the house then right i think that would assume they usually come attached
yeah just fenced out the backyard that would be way worse like ah she's fucking at the pool again
today bring it john again but good for this guy sounds like
he's on the comeback trail all right a few months after my separation i was hit with another major
life event my mother was diagnosed with als now maybe i can jump to the jump the gun here uh my
family's from connecticut shout out uh but my parents retired in an awesome little beach town
in north carolina 2010 i've've been in North Carolina since 2007.
So I say that I was lucky to have been so close to her and my dad, and I was able to visit almost every week to help out until she died.
Obviously, my kids aged late teens here have grown up going to that little beach town.
We have memories of family and friends there, including getting married to my current wife
on the beach there.
Oh, so this guy's got a new wife.
All right.
Nice.
This is a roller coaster, man.
Now for my question.
My ex is looking to buy a beach house.
My kids have come to me and told me she's decided she wants one in the beach town, in the one beach town on earth that I have roots.
North Carolina has over 300 miles of coastline and many, many beach towns.
What do I do here?
Do I reach out to her, risk inspiring her further to buy something since she will see it as a way to screw with me by doing this?
Both my kids think she's crazy for looking there, but I don't want to put them in the
middle of things, which I think is the most important thing, by asking them to tell her
not to do it.
Do I just suck it up and say whatever happens, happens, thoughts?
As a side note, Ryan, don't ever get married.
Side note, Steve, don't ever get divorced.
All right, noted.
Kyle.
Wasn't planning on it.
Good luck.
Kyle, good luck.
Ah, motherfucker.
Says Kyle Goodluck.
You motherfucker.
Thanks.
Yeah, I think it's lame.
I think it's lame.
There's beach houses.
There's a lot of beach towns.
I think it's totally lame.
I would not have the kids do it.
You clearly don't like her. It sounds like things have worked out after a really bumpy road there for what
feels like a decade plus. And now you want to kind of enjoy your little beach town. Uh, we have a
rule about this stuff, you know, like anybody that's ever had like a tough breakup, uh, you
know, if that person's more ingrained with that one, it's kind of like get out of my town
deal. You know, they may, she doesn't even have any roots there. She has none. So I'm totally
on your side here. She was already dealing in a deficit too with the friend neighbor situation.
But yeah, it's, it's, don't put the kids in the middle of it. Don't have her, them relay the
message. I mean, you already don't get along with her, so who cares? And if she's actually petty
enough to then be like, well now, cause he doesn't want me there, I'm going to buy
a beach house there, then you should never feel bad telling her how you feel. That's a weird one.
I don't know her. If she's actually capable of doing something like that, it's so fucking stupid.
So this is a really good chance. Let happen whatever happened. Go ahead.
Maybe you could pay off the realtor.
Just have that realtor show her the worst properties ever.
Like when you show up in a realtor.
Like one time I looked at an apartment.
There was no living room.
And he was like, well, man, Head Beach, you're going to be outside a lot.
I was like, not where like I watch a lot of games, man.
I'm not going to be outside that much so uh i don't know
if you guys have anything else on this one i don't have another angle on it other than i think you
should just tell her but if he's afraid that she's gonna then spite by yeah i don't know that's
talking to her new husband just say hey like we don't want to be near you you don't want to be
near us like we work something out here could near you you don't want to be near us like
can we work something out here could you could you plant some eggs and uh and hey hopefully like
you know sway her away from living there i mean it'd be one thing if the kids like if this was
like a long-term thing i think it would be seeds right now seeds yeah i'm not playing i liked it
it's it's rolled off the tongue just just i was watching house of the dragon last night i got i
got a dragon okay excuse me seeds are the new currency. That's true. Seeds.
Seeds are going to be big one day.
It'd be one thing if you were close and you didn't
want the kids to be separated because you wanted
to still see them a ton. But this is going to
be, what, a couple times a year? There's no way that
they should be living anywhere near you in the same state
like that. I think some people chime in and go,
hey, it'd be great, though, for the kids.
It'd be easy in the back and forth and whatever,
whatever, whatever. And then it's like, you know what?
You get along with your ex.
This guy doesn't. And there's still some bitterness.
So,
move to a different fucking town.
I think this one's pretty simple.
But again, she's going to
then, I don't know. I don't know how to tell you
what to do on the, she's going to then, if you
tell her to not do it, then she's more
motivated to do it. If that's what you really think she's capable of then just let it play out chances are you'll
still be okay you know maybe you write an editorial like an anonymous editorial in the local paper
like this town sucks then have the one of the kids just like randomly leave this whatever it would be called the the johnston
tribune the bugle i always thought the bugle was interesting one okay i don't know if this
is a compliment or not so i don't know we don't like reading compliments here you know what was
it for it was from a therapist that you sent me but but I don't know. I just started reading it and I went,
I have no idea.
All right.
Should I just go blind from a Kyle send in one?
It just,
the topic is,
am I a slut?
We just want to go for it.
Yeah.
I don't remember this at all.
So yeah,
let's do it.
Okay.
Probably just read the byline.
You probably were like,
let's get this one in the mix.
26,
six foot,
two 10 Las Vegas.
Uh, he tells us where he works.
I think he tells us the field.
We'll just keep it a little more vague.
Bench press 220.
I don't know how you guys are landing on some of these numbers here
unless you're just big two and a half guys.
Squat 265.
I guess the change plate thing's a big deal.
Deadlift 290.
All right, in March, I cheated on my girlfriend.
Let's call her Jade.
Yeah, Jade.
Does she work in Vegas too?
Yeah, I know.
That's like a Vegas name, if you know what I mean.
I sure do.
I sure do, Kyle.
I cheated on Jade with my ex.
Let's call her Lucy at my best friend's.
Let's call her Emma.
Emma had a 26th birthday party.
We dated for just shy 18 months.
She fit perfectly into my friendship group.
I'm still a member of all the group chats.
We have far too many.
The backstories were in a rough patch,
and she put us on a break.
I also only kissed Lucy,
but that was enough for Jade to break up with me. After Jade dumped me, I then had a bunch more beers and went
home with Lucy. For the next few weeks, Jade posted continuous Instagram stories with quotes
that were clear shots at me. That's always the best. I had that happen to me once. I brought it
back in a text to that person like seven years later uh as well
as telling anyone and everyone who would listen how much of a shit guy i am i know i was in the
wrong and deserve it i don't get it so wait he he got put on a break made out with uh
lucy and then jay dumped him and then he just made out with Lucy at a party. She found out
and she dumped him. I hope that you're telling
the truth, Guy, because this sounds super
unreasonable on Jade's part.
No offense, the font
alone is having me question everything,
but that's all right.
Jade also didn't like the amount of time
Emma and I spent together. We exercised
a lot together, including swimming
twice a week and running once.
That is Emma hot.
Usually girlfriends aren't in a
huge hurry to have their boyfriends be hanging out with
other hot females all the time.
Our offices were also
close to each other, so we'd try to have lunch together
if we're both in the office on the same day.
The incident caused a divide in the group.
Some called me a misogynist. Others, including
Emma, were sympathetic and even defended me to the other group members.
Stunning.
All right.
Wonder why.
I wasn't invited to group activities until we went camping in early June.
I was annoyed that they had shunned me but chose to move on.
Jade quickly had a new partner, was very quick to flaunt him to the group, and then they quickly broke up.
And she wanted to get back together with me.
By that time, Emma and I had started seeing each other in secret so of course
i wasn't interested for context i bought a two-bedroom condo and emma moved in as a roommate
i'm expecting a massive punch line that just says i can't believe you fucking read this email at the
very end uh very early on things escalated the start of aug, Emma moved out. Wait.
Very early on, things escalated,
and at the start of August, Emma moved out.
We both told people it was because we both had been working from home arrangements
and there wasn't enough space in the condo.
Things with Emma have progressed really well,
and we're now to the point
where we're ready to tell people about us.
How do you guys think we should do it?
We both think things would be a bit awkward for the group,
and we might cop some backlash.
Alright, I'm glad everyone
had to listen to that
as punishment for me reading it
because I also punished myself. I have
no idea, dude. It sounds like girls really are into you
despite some weird
rounding out of your bench press numbers.
Thanks for listening to the podcast.
You're 26. Good as a shit.
Yeah, I thought that was going to be, based on the title alone,
that was, that needed to be way more juicy than just making out with one girl
and getting dumped by another girl.
Well, it sounds like he hooked up with her after a few beers.
Yeah.
He's just moving around.
He's moving around the friend group.
I mean, honestly, this sounds like college.
You're just a little bit older, but you're in Vegas.
So I think there's an extended period of time there.
I don't know.
Maybe you're fucking awesome, dude.
Have you thought about that?
Wait, what's the question?
Am I a slut?
What's the question?
Or should we tell anyone?
Yeah, he's trying to figure out how he could be with Emma
and still, I guess, be in the good graces of the friend group. And then his ex
Jade wants to get back together with him, but he doesn't want
to. Lucy's out of the picture, apparently, after one
make-out session. I think the more people
that you get with in this friend
group, the less chance you'll have of being
shunned. Why do you want to be in this
friend group? Yeah, I mean, nobody seems to like
you. Yeah, you should just keep running through them and just
it's now a business decision
now. It's not even like, I need new friends now.
I just mean, hold on.
Running through them?
Well, whatever.
I mean, what?
Come on, dude.
It's 2022.
Yesterday I said, who's tugging?
I mean, whatever.
So, I mean, just saying shit now.
But I just think that you probably have a better,
if you wanted to still go on group activities like Trivia Night or Big Wooden Block Jenga
or whatever people do at bars in Vegas,
maybe you could...
The more people that you're attached to,
the less...
It wouldn't be as easy to shun you, I think.
Could be.
I could be totally backwards in that, but...
It wasn't nearly as juicy as the headline.
So there's that uh you said why
do you want to be in the friend group it seems like he's actually doing pretty well in the friend
group uh they apparently brought him back to this camping trip there's a sentence that didn't make
any sense where he said he moved in with emma things escalated and then she moved out so then
i thought we had another turn it was like no we just don't live together now i don't care here's
the deal we don't need a follow i don't care here's the deal
we don't need a follow-up email man things are good you're 26 sounds like girls like you you
know we get a lot of emails from people that don't have these options so do that and you know other
people have had beers and done stuff too you know shout out so there's been quite a few congrats on
the sex uh emails recently i've been reading like, hey, congrats, man. You're doing all right for yourself.
There's not really much that we need to weigh in on.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Right.
That's right.
So, okay.
We're done.
We're done for today.
Today was a long one.
Long pod.
Yeah.
Today's pod was an adventure.
Okay.
There you go.
We'll talk to you Friday.
Priscilla Podcast. Ring adventure. Okay. There you go. We'll talk to you Friday. Priscilla Podcast.
Ringer.
Spotify. you