The Science of Flipping - What To Do With The Upcoming Market Crash feat. Jamil Damji

Episode Date: July 7, 2022

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Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Right, you're still not getting anything. You're still not doing anything, right? So there's gonna be people who are gonna sit on their ass and do shit, and there's gonna be people that are gonna get out there and they're gonna take action and, like, actually care about things. That's it. Those people are going to always win. Why? Because they're taking action. what's up everybody welcome back to the science flippin podcast i am justin colby and today
Starting point is 00:00:38 i got one of my pals one of the best to do it mr jamil damil Damji from Kegley's here. Good to see you, bro. What's up? Listen, I'm back in Arizona and it's not cold. How do you like it? I'll be honest, I'm gonna be honest with you. For 12 years I lived here. I never complained about the summer. I didn't really, it was hot, we get it. Never really complained, whatever.
Starting point is 00:00:58 I moved to Miami, different climate, warm, humid. Yeah, ball sweat. Yes, a lot, a lot. But then I come back and I literally think I just landed on hell. And it's funny because I've never complained about the heat in Arizona. Yeah, yeah. And I traveled back here this week and I landed Thursday and it was 115 degrees and I said, oh no, this is awful. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:01:26 So last night, wife and I were sitting out in my backyard and we were like, there was just a cool breeze and she's like, oh, it's really nice. And I'm like, isn't it? And I looked at the temperature and it was 103. Yeah. And so you 100% get acclimatized to it. You've got to stay here in order for it not to feel like hell. But you leaving to Miami and coming back i think that was your big mistake we go to la a lot because we have a house out there as well so traveling back and forth we see the temperature difference yeah just drastically crazy you know right in our face because we'll go and it'll be 70 degrees at the water and then you come here and it's 115 you're like what's happening but you know phoenix is still such a beautiful town that like even though places i live dude miami or scottsdale there you go like, what's happening? But you know, Phoenix is still such a beautiful town that like, even though it's places I lived in Miami or Scottsdale, even though it's hot, hot as balls,
Starting point is 00:02:10 it's just like, God, the opportunity, the people here, there's something in the water that makes everybody good at real estate. Everybody, especially us. Yes, sir. We'll talk about real estate, dude. Cause I came in, I literally hit you up first and I said, dude, we need to do some content because the market's changing real time. Big time. Like real time. This is a thing. It actually happened so fast.
Starting point is 00:02:29 It was like one weekend. It was hot, hot, hot, like multiple offers. And then the next week, I think like Easter might've been when it changed. That would be a good, so our guy, Chris Simon and I had a little bet, a little steak dinner at City Hall bet. Yeah. He hits me up. He was like, how much do you want to bet by July 1st? There'll be over 10,000 listings in Phoenix.
Starting point is 00:02:55 And I said, bro, what is it at now? He was like, 2,800. I'm like, this is back in May. Yeah. June, July. I'm like, I don't know. That seems a little aggressive. I. June, July. I'm like, I don't know. That seems a little aggressive. I see it going up,
Starting point is 00:03:07 but he shoots me a text message right now and it's like 13,000 active listings on the market, right? You going to dinner? Yeah. So there goes some money.
Starting point is 00:03:16 When you take Chris to City Hall, I mean, he's what, nine feet tall? Yeah, yeah, something like that. So he gets two tomahawks. Just in, though. It's not a sharing. But what he does is he orders two and then eats a quarter of one and then just
Starting point is 00:03:28 leaves that's it yeah well because he's big yeah yeah he's like hey there you go i'm gonna order for two i'm gonna eat a quarter and then you're gonna pay for both he's on his fitness grind he's actually amazing dude he honestly i love chris so much and every time i see him he looks healthier yeah he's always making himself happier he's engaged his fiance is gorgeous his daughter just got married Jack is crushing it out here I mean you know I think he's literally living the life right now everyone yeah man his kids are all happy and healthy and doing well and he's made tons of money so he gets to hang out with a gorgeous woman out in the water in Florida watching I'm in we love you buddy yeah
Starting point is 00:04:07 how else could like what else do you want out of life he's crushed one story about that is every time I come back to Arizona his fiance is on the same flight really randomly that's cool and because she's from Fort Lauderdale in Miami and so our flights are the same so it's cool it's rad so let's get in I mean here's the one thing I can tell you for certain. Our business model of wholesaling is the best business model there is. I believe that. Look, man, I got involved in wholesale when the market had tanked here in Phoenix. So I started buying property in late 2009, early 2010.
Starting point is 00:04:40 Market was decimated. And I was wholesaling like crazy, you know, and so I understand that wholesale is one of those business models that can make money on the up and it can make money on the down. You just have to be very, very good at underwriting. That's right. It's everything. A hundred percent. Like if you understand how to value property, You can always find an opportunity. And it's not that people don't need a place to live. So rehabbers are constantly going to be doing projects. They're just going to be buying deeper right now. That's it. And that's it. So, and it's your ability to buy, right? You make your money on the buy. And I would tell you, I literally just had a conversation
Starting point is 00:05:20 earlier today. I was featured on a podcast and they said, hey, are you scared? My answer emphatically is absolutely not. Yeah. I will still buy. We just talked about you're buying a 53 unit. I will still buy a flip. I will buy a long-term rental. I will buy an Airbnb because the reality is all of it has to do with how you acquire it. It has nothing to do about what's going on with the market right now. Absolutely. And again, let's take an honest look at the market, okay? Because I'm seeing, I've been, I had a great opportunity to get some insight from the VP of Data and Analytics at BiggerPockets, who was just interviewing the VP of Data and Analytics at Redfin, who gave some insight that I think really shines a light as to like what this shift will look like for us because eighteen point six percent of home purchases are still being done made by institutional buyer okay so when near twenty percent of the volume is still
Starting point is 00:06:14 being absorbed by entities that are not dependent or sensitive to interest rates as as much as the average homeowner as us, you start to realize that we don't have a natural market cycle right now. It's changed forever. It's 100% changed forever. And they don't put them back. That home is off the market forever in terms of like Blackstone. If we're talking open door and all that, that's different. But the Blackstones, the Colonies, the Amherst, they're keeping those bad boys and it's off. You won't see that home come back on the market. No.
Starting point is 00:06:59 The other thing I've noticed is that as the residential, you know, your fireman, your school teacher, your nurse, as they pull back because affordability has gotten hard. Yeah. And because interest rates are high and they can't really afford much house. So as they pull out of the market and sellers start to come back to reality about where the pricing should be, everyone's saying, oh my God, there's all these price reductions. Look, if your price was crazy town and you had to come back to normal town, that's not a price reduction. Right. Right. It's normal. That's normal because everybody was just out there literally deciding. They were throwing a dart and saying, well, what should we list for? A bajillion dollars. Great.
Starting point is 00:07:30 Let's try that. Worst case that happens, we have to reduce. And so what's happening right now is you're getting people reducing back to where the comps are supporting the number. Right. It's not speculative. Yeah. The comps weren't supporting the numbers. And so there's going to be reductions.
Starting point is 00:07:44 Totally. If the comps say 315 and you list it for 3499 because you're just throwing that dart, that's what's happening. And then that's what's causing this, oh, my God, the market. I don't know. You should have listed it at 315 when you bought the property. Correct. And the challenge that I've seen and you've seen, whether it's our students or ourselves, because for those that don't know, Jamil and I both made it through the crash and lost everything. Yep. And people that follow you know your story and people following me know my story. But the reason why we've connected so greatly over the last decade plus is because we literally lost it all. Yeah. And it's because
Starting point is 00:08:16 stupid chasing money self. I don't know the word, but like we were chasing money and going for this speculation of the deals, right? I got murdered on leverage. Right. Right? So for anybody watching, and if you're wanting to know what I think the key things to stay away from are in a possible correction, just don't be over leveraged out there. What would you suggest is the right amount of leverage? Percentage basis, let's call it so personally I own my home outright okay I nearly own my vehicles outright okay I got a very small note I mean I can sneeze and pay
Starting point is 00:08:57 him off yeah okay I have a very low overhead when it comes to how I personally live. For sure. And I just live like that because of the PTSD from the last market cycle. The other situation that I'm seeing right now is we don't have the same market conditions as we had that created the last crash. The last crash was created from fraud and poor lending practices. We don't have poor lending practices anymore. I just literally am getting financing on this 53 unit right now,
Starting point is 00:09:29 and it is, invasive would be a kind word. Yeah, I was just gonna say, they're all the way up. Yeah, it's like, it is, it's incredible just how complicated it is to get leverage, right? And on this one, is this at cap fund so no cap fund is just closing it for us so that we can but the long term real on term refi is where it's gonna get really painful it totally and I just bought a
Starting point is 00:09:54 home in October and kind of like you out assume but like it was so invasive going through being an entrepreneur I ended up just doing bank statement loans because they just said all right how much money do you make really every single month? Cause the IRS thinks I'm broke. So, which is great for tax purposes. Yeah, my IRS, they're crushing me. I have like $900,000 in this last year in tax payments. Well, that's because you make a lot of money.
Starting point is 00:10:20 My accountant tells me this all the time. If you're not bitching about taxes, cause you're not making enough money. Right, right. Well, you're doing a good job of writing stuff off and depreciating. I still need to get more tax efficient. Yeah, yeah. Part of it. And get a loan on your home.
Starting point is 00:10:33 Interesting. I mean, listen, by the way, dude, they tell you buy a home. Buy a home is a blessing. Yeah. Tax write-offs. I'm putting a $60,000 roof on my freaking home because I'm like, I literally call my account. I was like, oh, you want to meet about this is a good invest. Get like, get out of here. Like,
Starting point is 00:10:50 but you need to be able to afford the home for sure. So we're going on tangents because I'm pretty passionate. And so are you about this, but leverage, if you're a flipper, what kind of leverage are you looking at right now? What's the right amount at this point that, that keeps you from losing your butt and leverage? I think if you are buying right, so if you're buying wholesale opportunities like we do, which is say you're getting 30% from like a seven, you're buying at 70 cents on the dollar. Yep. Okay.
Starting point is 00:11:15 So what ends, what's the worst that can happen? You renovate it and you sell it with a break even. Yeah. Right. So like, I mean it'd be very hard to, the market would have to tank 30% in order for you to get crushed on that deal. Right?
Starting point is 00:11:27 And so when is that going to happen? Not. It's just not. So the way I look at it is if you're buying correctly, then you shouldn't have to worry about how much leverage you have. But by like, for me, 20% down makes me feel real comfortable because I know I'm
Starting point is 00:11:43 insulated there. Like I'm not going to have to walk away from this loan. I'm not going to have to walk away from this house. I only do non-recourse loans anyways, just in case like things go to, because I, the last time I was in recourse and they took you down. Yeah, they took everything from me, right? So I'm doing asset based lending only. So hard money loans are private money loans. So they're non-recourse, meaning that they can't come and take my house if things go wrong. I am putting 20% down on all of my projects. I mean, beyond that, there's not much more that I can do to insulate myself.
Starting point is 00:12:14 You're still being protected. Yeah. And I'm underwriting. I'm underwriting every one of my deals. I'm making sure that I'm not overpaying. I'm not buying on speculation. There's good fundamentals in the purchase that I'm making. Beyond that, that's the best that I can do to be careful. Yeah, and the key here is people like, when I got asked this morning, am I scared? And I'm like, absolutely not. And I'm going to continue buying
Starting point is 00:12:33 because in these times, and I think we'll go through this season, right? I'm not, by the way, I'm not a economist. I have not studied this my whole life. I just have some common sense as a business owner and being in real estate 15 years. I think the market corrects roughly 20% over time. Not next month, not even the month after, but I think we're going to go through a six month season that I kind of feel
Starting point is 00:12:53 like 20% is about the right number. And here's why I say that. Markets like this, Phoenix, roughly a 40% appreciation in the last two years. Year over year, 20%. That's insanity. A normal market's three to 5% appreciation in a totally normal market. Year over year, 20%. That's insanity. A normal market's 3% to 5% appreciation in a totally normal market. So for there to be 20% year over year here in Phoenix, I'm like, okay, it makes sense in some markets like this that there is going to be a 20% correction because that's actually getting a lot closer
Starting point is 00:13:18 to being a normal market. But that's not a pop of a bubble. It's because this has been almost falsely created over craziness. Well, right. What the economist or the data analytics person that Redfin had noted, which I thought was really interesting, is what caused the appreciation. And what caused the appreciation was America migrating. That's it. Right, right. Leaving San Francisco, coming to Phoenix.
Starting point is 00:13:47 Leaving San Francisco, leaving New York, leaving Chicago, leaving LA. Yeah. So all of these people left these high priced markets. That makes a lot of sense. And they came with so much money. Yeah. So for them, it really, I mean, the migration, and it happened in such a dramatic fashion, and it happened so fast because of the pandemic, that you got this massive spike, right?
Starting point is 00:14:13 And so I don't know if that was an overheating, because what ended up happening was they just came and they plopped down cash. And so the only thing that could cause the prices to even correct 20%, which again, it could happen. It could. I don't know. Just to be clear, that's not me being fear-based at all. Yeah, that's just saying like 40% appreciation was nuts. Nuts.
Starting point is 00:14:35 Yeah, so even if we lost half of that. Still awesome. It would still be great. Right. But like that, again, look, the fact that people were paying $50,000, paying 50, 60, $100,000 over list for properties and there was no appraisal fundamental there that showed that the value actually was real. I mean, that happened because of the just volume of people that migrated and were coming.
Starting point is 00:14:57 That's right. Now, this is the question. Will the migration end? So if you're really asking my opinion, which I think you are, I actually don't think so. And the reason being is because I believe COVID really set a new precedence for the world,
Starting point is 00:15:11 like the world, not just the US. And I believe people are going to want to live where they're going to want to live and they're going to be able to work. I think it was, is it Facebook? One of the, you know, whether it's Facebook or Amazon or even Tesla, they're like begging their employees to come in the office at this point. Yeah. Because people are like,
Starting point is 00:15:29 well, I don't have to anymore. Right. The world has changed, legitimately changed to the point where I moved my happy ass to Miami and didn't feel bad about it or feel like my company would go under because the entire world, my entire team is virtual. Right. We're sitting in your office right now and it's beautiful and you have a great team. But the reality is anyone could be in real estate in any market. We just talked about Privy a little while ago. I have students working Privy in states they've never even been in. Yeah. Right. I mean, it's a fantastic tool. I don't think it's going to, I think it's going to continue. I think Phoenix is going to be a great market. I think Vegas is
Starting point is 00:16:02 going to be a great market. Miami, these markets that can be sprawling and have the appeal that like a Scottsdale and a Phoenix does. Right. I just don't think it slows down as much as people are. I'm not fear based in this. No, I'm 100 percent behind you with that. I also believe that we have a relative low cost of living in these markets that had this crazy appreciation. Coming from California, and because I live in LA as well as Phoenix, for me, I'm really sensitive to the price differential between the two cities. I go to LA and I fill up gas at over $7 a gallon. I come home and I'm at high fours.
Starting point is 00:16:41 I go to the grocery store over there, it's $400 or $500. I go to the grocery store over here, it's $400 or $500. I go to the grocery store over here, it's $200 or $300. Everything is just more expensive in Los Angeles, right? So when you look at it that way, the people that are leaving California, the people that are leaving those high-priced markets where everything is more expensive, even though they spent a little bit more money on the house, they're spending a lot less money on everything else that they're doing. And a lot of them are having the same job that they had when they were living in the high price market. So they got an income that allowed them to live in LA, but now they're living in Phoenix,
Starting point is 00:17:14 right? Where a plum is 80 cents, not a dollar 50. So I still believe that you've got really strong fundamentals when it comes to these markets where we had this crazy appreciation. I don't necessarily feel like we're going to have less people moving here. I don't think we're going to have less demand for housing. I think that the buyers are going to be a little bit more competitive and they're going to require the sellers to do more work in the homes. mean i saw some very shoddy remodels get absorbed yeah and you know being somebody that really pays attention to design and style especially for our fix and flips and seeing how our competitors were getting away with like substandard work and substandard materials like i think that'll end yeah i think that of course we're going to start seeing some relaxation and
Starting point is 00:18:04 pricing when it comes to lumber and material, but it's still like the Great Depression out there if you go to the Home Depot. I mean it's like one day you go outside and you get chocolate, another day you go outside and you get coffee, like that's what it was like in the 30s. Today you might go out to Home Depot
Starting point is 00:18:18 and they might have drywall and you might go back the next day and they got nothing. They might have, like right now we're in a concrete shortage. Oh dude, it's wild. But lumber is going down, so everyone's super excited about lumber pricing finally coming. you might go back the next day and they got nothing. They might have, like right now we're in a concrete shortage. Oh, dude, it's wild. But lumber is going down. So everyone's super excited. Lumber pricing's finally coming.
Starting point is 00:18:31 Well, yeah, but now you can't go get concrete. There's always going to be something. There's something going on. Do you have any feeling about whether price point plays into this? And why I ask is because I'm looking at buying right up the street, buying a home for about a million, putting roughly 100 into it and selling for roughly one four. And that's me being conservative, underwriting it correctly. Maybe it gets listed at one three, seven five.
Starting point is 00:18:52 And then, do you think price point relative to what's happening, right? Interest rates and all that. You think that's a big thing? I mean, I think the luxury space always is a little bit less sensitive to an interest rate hike because look, at that price, people put down more money. That's right. And they have higher paying incomes.
Starting point is 00:19:12 So, you know, if their mortgage payment is $1,000 more a month, it's not going to make a big deal. I mean, I hate saying this, but it really just depends on where you are in life. That's right Like you know people in a higher income bracket when things like this happen with inflation They just figure out how to make more money. That's it. You know and like nothing has Really relaxed when it comes to how expensive stuff is out there right now It's everything is a lot of money a lot, but nothing I I still can't get a table at a restaurant No kidding I mean legit legit legit. I can't get a table at a restaurant. No kidding. I mean, legit.
Starting point is 00:19:46 Legit, legit. I can't get a table at a restaurant. I can't get a seat in a movie. Dude, it's insane. Everything is sold out. Everything is booked. People are still spending. People are still out there doing stuff.
Starting point is 00:19:56 So if it's so bad, why aren't you guys just staying home? People are addicted to the fear. They love it. The world's going to crash. And that's where it's just like you don't are addicted to the fear. They love it. The world's going to crash. And that's where it's just like, you don't even have to educate yourself. Like just be around the people who aren't addicted to fear. Right. Like your amount of abundance and my amount of abundance needs to be way further out in
Starting point is 00:20:17 this space because this is an incredible time to be in real estate. Not a scary time. It's always an incredible time. Incredible time to be in real estate. Regardless of interest rates, inflation, recession, and all the other keywords that news is trying to shove down everyone's throat. It's real. I'm not blind and deaf to what is actually happening.
Starting point is 00:20:34 Gas really is, in Miami, it's almost $6 a gallon. Right. I'm not blind to that. When I fill up my range, I'm like, oh, this is a lot. Okay. But there's still incredible opportunities in real estate right we did 1.4 million dollars in assignments last month but it's a recession but there's interest rates going up but wait no there's no but you just go do yeah so what are that how did we sell wholesale
Starting point is 00:20:59 deals I'll tell you how we bought them deeper yeah and you have a buyer that you know that will buy it yeah understanding it i mean we didn't go too much in the technical real estate which is fine but like i think people right now as they watch this on youtube or itunes or wherever this is going to be they need to understand it's not time to be fearful no like it really just isn't you're talking about buying a 53 unit i'm looking at buying 20 rentals in north carolina like i'm more in than i am the other way around. Yeah. Right. Like I've probably been more conservative over the last two years when flipping and things, cause I've always kind of felt there's always this thing you and I've
Starting point is 00:21:31 been through it where there's like, if that music turns off and you have 19 rental or, you know, rehab to run in that gets scary. As long as you can debt service, what you've taken on as obligations and you're fine. That's it. You know, like make sure that if you're buying, I think, you know, in times like this, multifamily always does well. Why?
Starting point is 00:21:50 Because multifamily is not as sensitive to the comparables because it's all cap rate driven and rents have spiked. 100%. And rents aren't coming down. No, going higher. They're going higher, right? And so you think about that. So where will we have opportunities in real estate right now?
Starting point is 00:22:06 Multifamily is absolutely true. For sure. Because cap rates and a lot of buildings haven't increased their rents yet. So there's still a lot of opportunity there for value to be added. 100%. So I still believe that you can get in, do a lot of transacting in the multifamily sector. I think that there's a lot of transacting in the multifamily sector. I think that there's a lot of transacting still in single family. I think there's a lot of opportunity in the lower luxury price points.
Starting point is 00:22:31 I'm talking like $2 million and under. I think the ultra luxury market will absolutely find some softening there just because people in that real high income or that those high net worth individuals they may be waiting a little bit longer to deploy capital because they've got so much money they're not really rushing towards doing this or that so there could be a softening there I think in the lowest lowest price points there's still just no inventory there and because interest rates have spiked is where they went housing starts stopped yeah and so, we have an inventory problem. It's so real.
Starting point is 00:23:09 And we've got people locked into their homes because they can't go anywhere. Well, and all the people that bought at 2.85 interest rates and all the people that refied, they're not going anywhere. No, they can't because where are they going to buy? Right. I mean, it's crazy, dude. This is such a great time to be in real estate. And by the way, for all of you who aren't't following Jamil you need to be following Jamil him his whole coaching program his business of Kegley like one of the greats to be in the space uh I don't say that about everybody thank you you
Starting point is 00:23:34 are that guy like and so um I just appreciate you spending some time with me while we're here dude man it's fun you know I always think it's important that people that have their finger on the pulse of what's going on in the market speak. I think there's a lot of fear out there. I think there's a lot of people who don't have really, they're not in the arena. Yeah. They're not really playing the game. And so they've got opinions. And I think that unless you're financially invested and unless you've got something to risk, I really don't want to hear your opinion. Agreed. You know, I also think that for people that had been desiring to learn and
Starting point is 00:24:13 understand real estate, look, if a correction does happen, okay. And say we do end up losing 20 or 30% in the market. So that's called a dip, right? So you know what ends up happening at the end of a dip? Action, activity. And so, cool. If you're saying the market's going to crash, then what are you doing? Right now is the time for you to learn the fundamentals of underwriting. Right now is the opportunity for you to understand how to reposition and add value to property. Right now is the opportunity for you to learn the instruments that we use to buy and sell contracts. Right now is the opportunity for you to learn the creative finance models of subject to and seller finance. Right now is an opportunity for you to learn multifamily investing. I mean, guys, there's
Starting point is 00:25:02 always going to be a reason not to take action and learn stuff, right? How many people as a coach did I hear people say, oh, you know what? I'm going to wait for the market to crash. All right. Well, where are you? Hey, what are you doing? Guy that was waiting for the market to crash. Where are you? Right. You're still not getting anything. You're still not doing anything. Right. So there's going to be people who are going to sit on their ass and do shit. And there's going to be people that are going to get out there and they're going to take action and like actually care about this. That's it. Those people are going to always win.
Starting point is 00:25:32 Why? Because they're taking action. One more thing. If you look at real estate prices from the time we've been tracking 1930s or 40s or whatever, and you look at today, guess what? Real estate has always done this. You've had moments where it did this, but ultimately it is always up and to the right. So don't time the market. Have time in the market. That's it. Boom. We're going to leave it at that, dog. Thanks for watching!

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