The Sheet with Jeff Marek - On the Sheet: Dom Luszczyszyn

Episode Date: January 29, 2026

Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic joins the show to analyze playoff odds, standings projections, roster needs, and the ongoing Zach Werenski vs Quinn Hughes vs Cale Makar debate.Leave a voicemail: https://www.speakpipe.com/TheSheetEmail us: [e-mail] TO OUR SPONSORS!!👍🏼 Fan Duel: https://www.fanduel.com/👍🏼Uber Eats: https://www.ubereats.com/caReach out to [e-mail] to connect with our Sales Team and discuss opportunities to partner with us!If you liked this, check out:🚨 OTT - Coming in Hot Sens | https://www.youtube.com/c/thewallyandmethotshow🚨 TOR - LeafsNation | https://www.youtube.com/@theleafsnation401🚨 EDM - OilersNation | https://www.youtube.com/@Oilersnationdotcom🚨 VAN - CanucksArmy | https://www.youtube.com/@Canucks_Army🚨 CGY - FlamesNation | https://www.youtube.com/@FNBarnBurner🚨 Daily Faceoff Fantasy & Betting | www.youtube.com/@DFOFantasyandBetting____________________________________________________________________________________________Connect with us on ⬇️Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/daily_faceoff💻 Website: https://www.dailyfaceoff.com🐦 Follow on twitter: https://x.com/DailyFaceoff💻 Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/dailyfaceoffDaily Faceoff Merch:https://nationgear.ca/collections/daily-faceoffReach out to [e-mail] to connect with our Sales Team and discuss opportunities to partner with us! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Okay, well, someone here we're going to get to comment on the Andre Palat experience. You read him in The Athletic, and he's sort of pepper and parsley for a lot of other writers soup as well. He's sort of all over. He is Domlician from The Athletic who, no matter who's writing at the Athletic, there's always a reference to Dom's model. So this is the Dom that we're talking about, and the writers that the Atlantic are talking about when they say Dom's model. First of all, Dom, thanks so much for stopping by today. Second of all, unprompted, got a text when we announced you were coming on

the program today. From a friend of mine, I'm just going to ask this and get this out of the way. I see you're having Dom on the show. I'm low-key dying to know what software he uses, Excel, R, or Python. Let's start there. None of the above. What do you use? I use Apple numbers, which is as dumb as it gets, and I've said that before.

It is like the easiest way to make things look pretty. I do use Excel for my playoff projections and the simulation and all that. Yeah. And I've tried to learn Python the past, but it didn't really take. So here I am. Okay. There you go. All right.

First answer, knocked out of the park. The Andre Palat experience we were talking about just before you came on here. He scores a goal for the New York Islanders last night. So he's back. Your thoughts on this deal here quickly before we move along? I think they did well to improve defensively a bit. That's, I think, one of their biggest issues this season. Their decor has been brutal.

And Pilat has not been great offensively over the last couple of years and was overpaid for sure. But I think defensively, he still has some game in a depth role. So, I don't know, it's fine. I don't really have a hot Pilat take. Greg, you have a hot Palat take? Yeah, we should have ever be. been signed, which is my hot time.

Spicey and Dom? I feel like, was it Broadway in Nashville the last time that we saw each other? Or was it after that? I don't even remember. There was one event in Toronto. I think you were here for the All-Star game. Yeah, that was it.

Yeah. Great. I think we talked like four hours. Dom and I like to chat a bit over Frosty. Were you perhaps were you perhaps overserved,

Considering you don't remember this four-hour conversation with our friend Dom. Had you perhaps been overpoured by some scurrilous bartender, sir? It's entirely possible. I wanted to ask you, so Werensky took the points lead last night over, over Makar in fewer games, which is kind of McCar-ish when you think about the way that the scoring race usually goes. McCar, Werenski, Quinn Hughes. What's your current ranking for those three guys? For the Norris or just who is best in general?

In general. Peak of their powers this season. Whose kung fu is the best? Makar, Warenski, Quinn Hughes. I still think it's Makar. I know there is a growing movement in the analytics community to discredit McCar at all costs just because he plays so much with Nathan McKinnon

and his work away from McKinnon isn't the best by XG, but I think defensively he has a lot more game than both Orensky and Hughes, and I think that complete package is what still puts Macar ahead for me. Wrenski, I think, is doing a lot with the least, and Hughes, I think, is the best offensive of the three,

but I'd probably still go Macar, Hughes, Wrenski, though it is getting a lot tighter in terms of peak of their powers. If it's Norris, I would like to throw Mauree's cider into that mix because he's been amazing defensively this year, this season. Future teammate for Zach Werenski. Sorry, he's had to throw that in there.

Potentially. So when you say, because I've seen that too, people being like McCar away from McKinnon, these numbers. First of all, I mean, like, I don't know what that level of sample size looks like because they tend to play a lot on the ice together. But why do you kind of discredit that

as being a knock on McCar's game, the numbers away from McKinnon? I don't necessarily discredit it. I just don't pay as much mind to it. I think if you're looking at like Wowy data, which is with or without you, you tend to get caught in these like extreme situations that often lack context.

So McCar, when he's away from McKinnon, I assume he's playing a tough competition with Brock Nelson. They're playing shutdown and it's a defensive role. McKinnon usually changes before McCar does, so they're going in the opposite direction. I think all of those things combine to equate to something that doesn't really tell the whole story. And when people look at that, they don't necessarily look at how well McCar and McKinnon do together, which is unbelievable given the context of those minutes.

Obviously, other teams are throwing out whatever they can to stop those guys. And I think when you put it all together, like for me, I still have McCar as the best defenseman this year, although it is getting closer since the first couple months. Let me track back there because you mentioned Morrid Sider there a couple of seconds ago. Make the case for him who will go through his entire career and not miss a game, apparently. The biggest case for Sider, I think, is he's the best defensive defensive in the league this year, while also being sound who can put up 60 points. He's playing tough minutes.

He's playing with Edvinson, who's really good defensively, but not necessarily like a Taves or favor caliber player. I just think he does so much with so little, as great as the Red Wings have looked on paper this year with standings and their record and whatnot. There's still like a plus four-goal differential team, and the way they play with outsider on the ice has been abhorrent at times, and he is just the complete package. And a lot of fans seem to bemoan that the awards race for defensemen often goes down to Art Ross for defensemen.

and I think cider is making the best one of the best cases we've seen of like the full package. Sorry, go ahead. No, I was going to say, if we can just pause on that for one second, like the art Ross of defensemen. It's so true. And one of the things that I'm always sort of quick to point out, one of the things that Sedano Chara, for example, never did. Chara never got 60 points once in his career. Never. Was it one season where Chara rang up 60, but he was always in the conversation for the,

Norris. Sorry, I just wanted to throw that one in there for a little bit of spice for everybody. But the thing about cider too is, I'll tell you and you've probably seen the exact same thing, Dom, by the end of the season, like, just because this guy plays, like, such hard minutes and top assignments and, and, and, and, and, and, and, like,

by the end of the season, this guy's, like, going on fumes and he's been doing it for years. Yeah, we're seeing a bit of that, I think, in December and maybe early January, his numbers are starting to dip a bit with Edmondson. but like the overall thing I still have him like a shade behind

McCar just because of the total package I've looked at like past races the infamous Carlson versus Dowdy one where Dowdy one being so good defensively this is that race but like on steroids where Macar is way better than Carlson but you can make

an argument that cider might be even better than Dowdy was that year I wanted to ask you if people have don't track Dom's standings projections on the athletic you should. One, because I think they're much more aesthetically pleasing now than they were maybe like two years ago.

So it's very guffered up and it's great. Much easier on the eye. But the other thing, too, is that it always offers up some surprises. For example, I was looking at the projections today. And the model still kind of likes the capitals a bit here to be a 90-point team. Their playoff chances, I think we're at like 40. 2%, which ain't great, but ain't terrible. What do you think about the capitals and their ability to maybe rally for a playoff spot

despite some recent stumbles? One quick caveat. Logan Thompson is day-to-day after getting hit in the head the other day against Seattle. Sorry, go ahead. Yeah, that would change a lot if Thompson is out for longer than day-to-day. That is literally almost the whole thing. The model really likes Thompson to the point that I will throw chairs around my apartment

if he's not the day one starter for Canada. This has been a really weird year where usually if you look at goal differential, it is like the best teams league, the worst teams the league. If you sort it like it makes sense. This year, if you sort by goal differential, it doesn't make sense at all relative to the standings.

There's still obviously the best and the worst teams. The middle is like wild. And the caps, I think, have been hard done by a lot of sequencing luck where they might win more games by two or three, but lose a lot of games by one goal. And they're not getting, they don't have the record that you'd expect from their goal differential, especially relative to a team like Detroit, where, like I mentioned, they're like a plus four goal differential, but are right

there with the lightning and points. The other thing is strength of schedule, especially for the wildcard teams. I think Washington and Columbus as well have one of the softest schedules going forward. And teams like Detroit, Pittsburgh, Boston, Buffalo, Montreal, All teams that have a good lead right now, that Washington has a more advantageous schedule. On paper, most of these teams are pretty mid. And Washington, I watched them playing in Seattle, horrible game. They looked horrible. And I'm like, what is my model doing?

So it's nice that it like downgrades after that. But do you have, listen, Tampa is so super legit. You know, you saw it going all through the injuries. do you have any way to explain why, you know, first of all, they won the circuit chapter 8. That's clear. J.J. Mosier looks awesome. Darren Radish is having an incredible season. It's interesting the way that they've sort of, you know, who has mentioned this to us?

Was it Eric Erlinson, I believe. Essentially McDonough and Mosier just sort of flipped contracts. It's a really nice bit of business year by Julian Brisebois. But like what happens with players when they just? join Tampa. Because Mosier never looked like this. Radish has had some goes around. He's never looked like this.

It seems as if, you know, and whether it's the call-ups from Syracuse, like, what does Tampa do so well that here we are, you know, they get dusted by the Panthers in the first round. I think, okay, they're going to have the big dip. And hot take, John Cooper is going to be the first coach fired this year. And quite the opposite. He might win the Jack Adams.

And the Tampa Bay Lightning might make it to the Stanley Cup final. What is it with Tampa, Dom? I don't know. but I hate it as a Toronto native. They took Pontus Holmberg, who was like fine. There's another one. A Swedish Olympian, elite defensive star. And like some of that was like evident with Toronto,

and they went out and spent a lot up on Scott Lodden anyways. But he never played this good with the Leaps. They've got random guys being called up after injuries. Charles Edward Dastuse, never heard of him. He's good, he's fine. And their depth that just really stepped up. It's the same thing you see the Florida Panthers. Something in the water in Tampa,

maybe just the good vibes of being the sun all the time. I don't know. I'm not a developmental expert. I don't know what they do, but credit to John Cooper as the coach of Tampa Bay for getting the most out of absolutely everybody this year, especially with this next man up mentality. You know, that does wink at something, too, that's interesting.

Of all the, like, there are some that believe that Jack Adams is, Jack Adams winner is, you know, whoever takes a bad team and makes them good, others believe you take a good team, you make it great, you win the Jack Adams, others, and this is where I sort of sit here too, and this is where it sort of winks at Colorado and Tampa Bay. If you can keep a great team great over a long stretch, because, you know, as Bob Ganey used to always talk about when he ran the stars, is if you don't have headaches when you go to bed, then your team isn't good. Because if you have a good team, you're going to have a lot of stars on your team,

and stars always mean conflict and headaches, but you get results. From your analysis and your evidence that you look at and your model, like if you're voting on the coach of the year, which way are you looking, Dom, based on what you're seeing from these teams and what they're expected to do?

I am happy I don't because I don't know a lot about what coaches do beyond reputation and beyond what's expected. I think it's become an award where you look at the preseason betting line and say, okay, Tampa is expected for 100 points. They're on pace for 115. That's plus 15 for the coach and then you rank them afterwards. I think there's maybe some credence to that. It's probably not all the coach. There's a lot of luck involved. That's probably the first place where I would start.

I, to go in a complete different direction, I think John Cooper should just get a lifetime achievement award for all the times he didn't win this award because he's just been steadily the best coach every year and this year I think is his masterpiece. This is like the Hall of Fame when they do like historical oversight and just sort of clean it up like, oh yeah, we missed like all the dick duffs of the world.

And okay, let's get them in the Hall of Fame. So when it's all said and done, if Cooper doesn't have one, he should just get a lifetime coaching achievement award, Not the worst idea that we've heard on this show, by the way, Dom. And it's weird because the award is voted on by the broadcasters. It's usually the coach that gives the best quotes that ends up winning the award. You figure Cooper would have one right now.

By the way, the coach that drinks the most with the broadcasters generally does pretty well, too. All Merrick's saying with this like the best coach and the best team should win is justice for Mike Babcock, as I think is what he's trying to say. The question I have for you, Dom. How much better is Colorado than either Dallas or Minnesota? And would it shock you to see the winner of that second series in the Central Division knock off the league's preeminent juggernaut this season? Not lately. Not last seven weeks.

Not lately. Not lately. But they are missing some key guys. I think one of the things we picked up on early in the year is that this is probably Colorado's deepest team. and they have shown that through the first half with Nelson being an absolute shutdown center juggernaut. Landis Scoggle looking better and better every game.

McKinnon and McCar at full power. Sam Malinsky, apparently unreal. I think there's a massive cap between Colorado and the other two. Dallas, I think, struggles a bit to control play at five and five to the way you'd expect from their roster. And if they get a top four defenseman, I think they'd be in better shape, but right now I'm a little worried about them. Minnesota is missing, I think, a top six center, and we'll see if they land Trocheque or someone else to fix that.

But until that happens, I think Colorado would have a massive chance against both in a seven-game series. The issue with that is it's hockey, and we have seen a lot of upsets in the past. And though last year was very, very chalky, we might be due for a year where everything just goes completely. the way we don't expect. And maybe they just gain some superpowers from that first round matchup. I don't know. Last one for me, a simple one with a probably complicated answer. Are the Pittsburgh Penguins real?

Is this a mirage? Have I been walking in the desert for so long? And I'm seeing mirages of palm trees and swimming pools. Or are the Pittsburgh Penguins legit? Great question. I think the East has like two legit teams. maybe, maybe three if Barkov comes back and Florida plays well. But other than that, it's just a parade of mid.

And I think Pittsburgh right now is showing they're near the top of that, I guess, dog pile. I am stunned. Mid-man. I'm stunned by how good they've been. I think everyone has fit really well. Everyone has responded well to a new coach. The special teams for both power play and penalties. for Pittsburgh being as good as it is, I think is a real strong indicator of Dan Hughes,

just being a way better coach than anyone of us thought to start the season. But one reason I'm skeptical is right now it's fueled by a Stewart Skinner hot streak. And if we know Stuart Skinner, and I think we do, there's a cold streak that will come at the worst possible time. It's common. And that could make things spicy. So I think they're mid. I think they're probably will make the playoffs, which will be fantastic, because I think everyone wants Crosby, Malk, and Lutang have one more go. And the East is really soft in the middle, so why not? But I can't get as far as legit.

First of all, I don't appreciate you saying it's going to be a postseason of surprises because, like, we have the Cup final on ESPN. Could really use something other than Islander's mammoth to kind of bolster the old viewership. So I'm just saying. I wanted to follow up on Merrick's question, same premise, different team. We've seen Anaheim as a steamroller, then we saw them just fall apart, and now they're rolling steam again. Like, what do you make of the ducks and are they going to get over the finish line as a playoff team? I think so.

I think the big difference between the ducks sucking for like three weeks and the ducks being good again is Lucas Dostol being himself. and I think we're seeing a lot this year. Goleys coming back from injury and struggling immensely. The Leifes played Anthony Stolars in his first game back for some weird reason and one of the most important games of the regular season. Aiden Hill wasn't great in that game either. Dostle for, I think, two or three weeks was horrible. And that coincided with the cold streak Anaheim had.

He's looked himself again, and they're winning now. And I think the big thing with Anaheim is defensive. they're still sketchy and they depend on Tolstall a lot. So as long as he's good, they're fine. And I do believe in him a lot. But I would like to see them clean things up defensively going forward. Obviously, still a young team missing Leo Carlson right now. But when all of a sudden, Don, if they can improve in that way, I think they are on their way to being legit.

This is awesome. Dom, thanks for taking so much time today. Really appreciate it. Continued success. Love reading everything that you're doing in the athletic. in popping up in everybody's pieces, which I always, which I always appreciate. I just love it. I just love what I get to the point where it's like the Dom's model section.

I always love him, athletic. It's fantastic. And like I said before you hopped on, like the reason I always loved you, Dom, is because you have all this knowledge and you have all this technology, and you use it for evil, which I think is beautiful, because, like, there's a lot of people that, like, try to be on the straight and arrow, the Megan Chakers of the world that are just, like, analyzing games and what happened on this play.

and you have this stuff and you're just like, here's who shouldn't win the award. And I'm like, that's exactly what you should be doing with all your knowledge. Here's my list of phonies. Here's my list of people faking the funk in the NHL that everybody is wrong about. Yeah, like everybody else is just like, here's the, this is why Buffalo's too. And then Dom's like, F this guy says the model. And it's just like, it's all you need.

And hockey is more of that. It's awesome. Was I wrong about Jonathan Huberdow? Was I wrong? No, you were not. I forgot to ask you, but I think the model has always been pretty high on the Sabres. Am I right on that? No, but it was high this season.

The market price to 80 points, and I had them at like 90 or to 83 points. And I had them at like 90 or 91, which is the largest distrepancy I had. Everything else was like on market. It's like, oh yeah, here come to the savers. And that has gone pretty well. Yeah, they can always sabers it up. I don't know, man. Like, we've seen the 10 game winning streaks before.

That's a great line sabers it up. We've seen like the 10 game winning streaks before. So I didn't get too excited about it. But now that this is like the most historically good performance, this stretch here of games, was it 18, 3 and 1, 193 and 1, that. we've ever seen from this team that stretches back to 1970. Like, I'm not at the point where I'm saying like this is a great team,

but I'm at the point, Dom, where I'm saying the Buffalo Sabres are good. Buffalo Sabres are good. That's what I'm saying. Ever since the top of mid Mountain. Top mid Mountain. Top mid mountain. You get on Buffalo. The Sabres have been on in the food three. There you go.

Well, tracks back to that. Dom, thanks, man. Excellent stuff as always. Thanks, Bob.