The Sheet with Jeff Marek - On the Sheet: Hart Levine on the Financial Ramifications of the Ducks Matching Carlsson's Offer Sheet

Episode Date: July 9, 2026

Hart Levine joins Jeff to dive into the financial side of a wild NHL offseason, breaking down the massive increase in free agency spending, how much money teams have committed, and the impact of the rising salary cap. They discuss the evolution of contract structures, how teams are preparing for more cap growth, and how front offices are adjusting to a changing NHL marketplace.Reach out to [e-mail] to connect with our Sales Team and discuss opportunities to partner with us!If you liked this, check out:🚨 OTT - Coming in Hot Sens | https://www.youtube.com/c/thewallyandmethotshow🚨 TOR - LeafsNation | https://www.youtube.com/@theleafsnation401🚨 EDM - OilersNation | https://www.youtube.com/@Oilersnationdotcom🚨 VAN - CanucksArmy | https://www.youtube.com/@Canucks_Army🚨 CGY - FlamesNation | https://www.youtube.com/@Flames_Nation🚨 Daily Faceoff Fantasy & Betting | www.youtube.com/@DFOFantasyandBetting____________________________________________________________________________________________Connect with us on ⬇️Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/daily_faceoff💻 Website: https://www.dailyfaceoff.com🐦 Follow on twitter: https://x.com/DailyFaceoff💻 Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/dailyfaceoffDaily Faceoff Merch:https://nationgear.ca/collections/daily-faceoff Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Someone who's been watching this and at times correcting people on this like me is Hart Levine, the conceptual genius, as I like to call him, behind Apocoppedia, partners here at Daily Faceoff, who's been waiting patiently to have all kinds of hot takes and great opinions on this one. First of all, the obvious question I think for everybody is, did you think that this was, like this was going to be the terminal point of this discussion? the ducks were going to match. I think that, especially when you're on record saying we're going to match any offer sheet, it's really hard to then not match. I mean, you kind of lose the credibility if you put that out there. The quote I think today said it was an easy decision. I can't imagine it was an easy decision.

I do think there's a lot to consider and how it changes their whole salary structure going forward, their window. you know it's a it's a it's a big uh that's a big multiple hanging out there now 18 million on him right so yeah i don't think it was a no-brainer match like i do think that there is like i always i always cite this against town so pretent british economist john maynard keens when he was caught this is this is a hundred years ago caught flip-flopping on an issue he said famously something along the lines of well when the facts change i change my mind along with it what pray tell do you do and the first

facts in this situation change profoundly with the number. Like, I know that everyone would have, they just treated Pat for beak like a pinata and, oh, you said you were going to, you're going to match any offer sheet. And now you've gone back on your, when facts change, you have to change your mind with it. I remember the free trade discussions in Canada in 84. You know, John Turner roasting Brian Mulrooney said only don't change their mind. So, like, there are escape hatches here for managers that want to sort of flip-flop on what they say. There's a historical precedent here, politics and economics. Yeah, I don't have a historical quote to throw back at you there.

But I would say that I think that you really have to look at where Anaheim is in their window, right? Like, this has been talked about, you know, at nauseam, but like you're not getting, with those four picks, it's very unlikely you're going to get another Carlson, right? And can you trade them for someone? Maybe. But I think the league's catching up to those mid-to-late first-round picks aren't as valuable as maybe historically thought of. So if they were at a different spot in their window where they had other superstars and this was going to kind of blow up their salary structure and maybe they could reload and add some immediate help to keep pushing, maybe. But where they are right now, like not having Leo Carlson having four first round picks, like you're setting the rebuild back, you know, another few several years.

And when you're kind of emerging from the darkness of, you know, low attendance, low viewership in that market, not not making the playoffs. there's finally some excitement. You made the playoffs. You went to the second round. I think you add all that combined, you know, yes, would you like to have them at another number than $18 million, of course? But consider you're limited to the alternatives, match or not match. I do think you kind of, you're not happy with it,

but matching makes the most sense for where they are in their period. Just to give us a little bit more context for this week, this is the second matched offer sheet of the week. There's the Barrett-Haten situation with Utah and New Jersey, and now there's this Whopper, which has been the headline maker. And this is the one that everyone has gravitated too. But just as a quick little sort of sidebar, Your Honor,

wasn't the Utah, New Jersey offer sheet kind of done the way that you're supposed to do offer sheets in that there are like, I know the bold, well, there's a failed trade. So, yeah, part of it. And it's not like there aren't poison pills in the Philadelphia Flyers offer. But this one had, you know, essentially forces Utah to allow Baird Hayton to walk to free agency. Essentially, the poison pill from Sunny here is, okay, if you want to match, you'll losing this guy next year. Yeah, I think it was definitely more strategic. But Philadelphia did was sort of the brute force.

Here's a lot of money overpay your star player. Let's see what you can do. The New Jersey one. Ed Snyder, that was an Ed Snyder offer. Exactly. Tell me when to stop putting these bills on the table. Just tell me when to stop. That gets an ex-Snyder offer sheet.

The New Jersey one, I think, was similar to the St. Louis one with Eminton, where it was more strategic. You know, there's something to consider. You know, Emerton was the double. St. Louis, Emerton was the double. New Jersey, yeah, I think that's the other element to it. I think conversely, like, New Jersey was smart to get Gritsyak sign. They traded Cotter.

I think they were a potential candidate for sort of the double barrel. to offer sheets coming at them. So I think that's the, yeah, that's the one. I think if Dallas had kept Maverick Bork, that's another one where it would feel a little more strategic. For sure. Where it's not just, here's a lot of money. I agree with you.

So what now for Anaheim? We focus a lot on Cutter Goce. We spend a lot of oxygen this week talking about Pavel Minchikov, which was a reflection to, again, the threat of an offer sheet on the heels of getting an offer sheet for Patrabeak is feeling like he's getting speedbagged with offer sheets and threats of offer sheets. sheets all week long. But like now what does Anaheim do? You know, I was bringing up the example of

Kevin LeBank the other from a few years ago where, you know, 56 point season, we thought he's going to ring the bell and it's a one million dollar contract and San Jose's in a cap squeeze. And then at the appropriate time, a, what was it, four times 16 or four times 17 million dollar contract appears. On the one hand, it's, you know, this porridge is too cold. On the other hand, this porridge is too hot, and you could look at it and say cynically, LeBank did him a favor, so Wilson did him a favor back. Could that scenario play itself out here with Cutter Goce? The wild card, as Dave mentioned, the second ago, is the agent, and that is Kurt Overhart.

I completely agree with that. I don't see that in the, you know, the best predictor of future performance is past performance. I don't see Kurt Overhart agreeing to, you know, a handshake deal like that. I think, especially, you know, he's, cutter Gochie. been through what Overheart's been through with Anaheim. I think you want the contract that you're going to sign without, you know, sort of something else in the drawer. So I don't see that for the player or the agent or the team.

I don't think anyone's dealing with Anaheim in that way that, you know, we've heard since the offer sheet happened, a lot of people coming out, that athletic survey from last year about how agents feel about dealing with Anaheim. And obviously, I've heard the same thing. That's just not a team, I think, as put themselves into position to get sort of a a handshake deal, whereas some other teams or GMs maybe have earned some of that equity to do something like that. Well, and that becomes, too, like what is the, we always think of, you know, what is the, what is the lesson or, you know, the, the cautionary tale of the Leo Carlson offer sheet if there is. Because it's not like we haven't seen massive offer sheets before.

They're an offer sheets have been around for, for a long time. And then there was something that wasn't even called an offer sheet, which used to be just signing another player's free agent. and then the NHL decides on compensation, like Buffalo and Boston, Buffalo grabs Peter and McNabb, and they decide the compensation is Andre Savard. So, like, was that an offer sheet? Technically, that wasn't what it's called, but essentially it was.

So offer sheets are nothing new. We'll always talk about Scott Stevens. That was a famous one. But is there a cautionary tale here for other general managers? Because everybody's watching this, obviously. Everybody's talking about this. I would imagine Hart that there were a lot of owners calling their general managers saying, have you checked in on the agent for insert young player X here?

Like, do you think there's a cautionary tale here, or at least a warning sign for other managers? I think there's two lessons to be learned here. One, lock your players up as soon as you can and not risk it. Like I think, you know, Emmetton certainly was kicking themselves, not getting at least Dylan Holloway signed early, right? Maybe Philip Rulberg just didn't want to sign and you can't force someone. but get your players signed up and you look at Carolina

ever since those offer sheets back and forth Montreal, they sign all their RFAs early, right? Anyone that's eligible for an offer sheet. The one guy that is still sitting out there that didn't sign early is Nikitian because he's not eligible for an offer sheet. So to me, that's the one lesson. The other one, though, I think is valuable

is how you treat players on the negotiations when you have all the leverage does come back around. And whether it's for that player or the agent or just sort of the general sentiment, I do think it comes back around. There's lots of examples of Anaheim really squeezing players, not just coming out of their entry-level deals, but even on their entry-level deals,

squeezing on the signing bonus amount or the games played bonus, right? And I get it. Like, teams have to do its best and try to, you know, optimize their cap structure. But sometimes, you know, you can win a battle and lose the war. And when there is that sentiment out there that this team is going to squeeze our neck every chance they get. So when the table's turn, let's send it back,

over the net. I mean, you know, that that has an impact. And again, not to say that, you know, if teams are very generous on their entry-level deals and first contracts coming out, that they're going to be immune from offer sheets. But I think the part that sometimes people forget is that an offer sheet requires a player to agree to it. It's not like, Lil Carlson did not have to sign that, right? Barrett Hayden did not have to sign that. The player has to be enticed to do it. You look back at last year and there was reports that Carolina tried to offer sheet Bouchard, right? Would Bouchard really have signed that? Or had he built enough credibility and goodwill?

Keep in mind his former agent is the CEO there, right? And was it really just like, here, there's an offer sheet that we've received. Let's just come on, let's get a deal done. And I think that's where you build up the credibility and the equity with your players. And it makes that also built some immunity to offer sheets. You know what the good example there of what you're talking about, Hart, is after the entry-level deal, Mitch Marner and the Columbus Blue Jackets offer sheet, to which, was, you know, a significant bump in pay, obviously.

But Martin wanted to be a Maple Leaf. And he wouldn't sign the offer sheet. The other sidebar to this one, which I don't think, which I don't think should be lost. So before the offer sheet was submitted, Patford B. said to your point earlier, which I gave you a pretentious James Maynard Keene's refutation, that, you know, that we will match you any offer sheet. It wasn't just one team that said, we don't believe you. It was four.

It was a four teams said, that's BS. Watch this. And he chose the Philadelphia offer sheet. Is there anything in there that you could drill or pull out of? Like four teams said, we don't believe you. Now, today, teams believe them. Other teams believe them. But at the time, there was four teams.

teams has said, go kick rocks. Well, I think also we should keep in mind with Minchikov. He did receive offer sheet interest as well, right? And then that leveraged that deal that he got, which I don't think he's getting that deal if Carlson hadn't signed an offer sheet, right? And it kind of emboldened people.

So yes, sure, Verriq has added that credibility that if he says he's going to match, he's going to match. But I don't think that would stop teams now, especially with their cap situation from going back at them again if there's a player in the future. So again, it's not just one action that leads to where we got to or or we'll lead to the next step. What happens now, because you follow this like to the dollar. What happens now with Anaheim?

Our previous conversation about Cutter Goce, I don't think he's interested in taking the Kevin LeBank, Michael Curran discount here for one year to do the GM. They love so much. a solid. What happens with Anaheim? Like, do bodies have to be thrown over the side of the deck here? And if you're Pat Verbeek, to stick it back to the Philadelphia Flyers, do you give away players of the Pittsburgh Penguins? Interesting.

Well, they have, we have them with $9 million of space, but that includes a third goalie like Braswa for $1.1 million. You know, and maybe you go a little leaner. So let's just say you can get that up to $10 or $11 million. And I think at this point, especially if he signs for more than a year or two, Cutter Goce is getting more than that, right? So I do think, to your point, there's some bodies going overboard. And I think you just have to look at some obvious candidates, like a Cologne at 6.25,

Vitano, 4.6, Crichter, 6.5. Yeah, I think there's going to need to get Goce signed. There's going to need to be some movement. Now, the question is, Anaheim learned from this? Or are they going to have complete leverage with Goce, right? Like, you can't sign an offer sheet. are they going to do what they would normally do and squeeze and squeeze and squeeze

and push him to the point where he's either going to sign a deal that he tells us way below market or not play. And we'll see. Could they make it work if they use their kind of usual playbook? Squeeze him, yeah, I don't think he would sign for more than a year or two if he's going to be in that number.

But they could do that. And then the question would be what would happen on his next deal. And does that leave a poor taste in his mouth? And that's what I've been sort of wondering about here because this puts Karaguchi in a really, really into, well, Pat Verbeek, too, both of them, in an interesting situation. Because the reason it got to this point in the first point is, to your previous,

how Pat for Beak has always behaved with younger players. So the question that I've asked Dave Paniotta the past couple of days, and I think we've arrived at the same answer we have around the same question with Steve Eiserman, will he change? Will he learn from this? You know, mistakes will continue until the lesson is learned. And I don't know that I see it. I don't know that I see Pat for Beak changing here,

even though everyone around him is saying, did you learn the lesson here? Yeah, I mean, and you look at it, you could see how we could talk himself into, well, we only have 10 or 11 million of space, so that's what he's going to have to sign for. We have all the leverage. Why should we change or learn, right?

So you could see the path for him to talk himself into, you know, repeating that type of, you know, approach to a player. Okay. Anything of, I'll exit with this one, Kevin Kerr standing by, is to anything that you want to sort of empty the tank about with this entire situation, the last six days, anything that perhaps you think people are missing, something you think that's important that hasn't been covered, you want to put a flashlight or a spotlight on something, the floor is yours. Well, I think in talking to agents, there's

a big belief that there's still another offer sheet coming or at least a threat of one, right? And again, we could say Kandre Miller and Minchikov were an offer sheet, but those contracts were were driven by offer sheets. And so, I mean, it's a small list now because the players that file for arbitration are no longer offer sheet eligible. But I look at Adam Fantilli, right? That's a flashing light to me that if they don't get a deal done here. And now you've got a pretty close comp at $18 million.

That's a risk. So that, you know, that would be one right there. And even someone like the-on-Wadell needs more headaches this summer. Even someone like a Simon-Edvinson in Detroit, you mentioned, you just can't get there on a deal. they have lots of cap space but so did Anaheim right and so maybe that's one where he's saying you don't want to give me the contract you know someone else will fascinating times this this must be like like Christmas morning for you like this is like usually it's Christmas morning on free agency now we got like Christmas week or Christmas month it's great that it's extended yeah I love the chess team of the offer sheets the arbitration you know it's I love that part it's great and and the the drama of it too like this is finally the Are we allowed to say the NHL has an entertaining off season now? Like that's where we're at here, Hart.

Like, when have we ever said that? Yeah, exactly. They made up for it. But we still need some more moves. We do. But we're a long way away from saying, oh, man, this summer is going to be born. It's been the best summer we've seen. Fantastic.

I do there to document all of it. Hart, thanks as always for stopping by. Thank you.