The Sheet with Jeff Marek - On the Sheet: Steve Werier on Offer Sheets, Anaheim, Philadelphia, and more

Starting point is 00:00:01 Now, this has been Leo Carlson week everywhere, including on this program. So we're bringing back today. This is like we're bringing it back and we're playing the hits from all the people that have really shared expertise and a knowledge of either offer sheets or this situation specifically and what we can pull out of it, what we can learn from it, what we can glean about it. And Steve Worrier is the former assistant general manager of the Florida Panthers who was with us a couple of days ago and is back once again.

Starting point is 00:00:31 First of all, thanks so much for showing up here at the last minute. I'm sure you got a million of things going on. But first of all, it's a day before we expected it, Steve. But what did you pull out of the Anaheim Ducks matching the Carlson offer sheet? Yeah, I mean, it's like we talked about, I think. No surprise that they matched. We're stuck either way. Can't be a player like that.

Starting point is 00:00:59 And, you know, whether or not they keep them or maybe they boom down the line. it seems like the right move. They've got some cat maneuvering. I think Hart probably went over pretty cleanly with you that they'll have to get through. And it might cost them a little bit more at the end of the day to keep them and preserve what they need to do with, you know, guys they have coming up like Seneca and Gochie, notwithstanding the comment about, you know, intelligently preserving space in their press release. But, yeah, no surprise in the decision itself. How did, let me just pause on that. Because I think we all, we're all cynical.

Starting point is 00:01:28 We all paused on that and went, hmm. Like, in corporate speak, that's a shot. Like, here's a statement, you know, Pat has intelligently left enough cap space to give us the ability to retain Leo. I think we all kind of looked at that and went, ooh, I'm not sure that's intended as a compliment here. Because I don't think the Samueli's intended for the upper limit of the salary cap to be a magnet. How did you greet this statement from the Ducks ownership? That's some good PR work. That's why you shouldn't just use Shatch E.P.T.

Starting point is 00:02:01 But, no, seriously, you ought to always project confidence even when you're in trouble. It's like that old SNL bit. I know it's Politics Day on your show it sounds like. But remember the old weekend update bit about generalism O'Franco is still dead or still a lot. Yes. I'm old enough to remember. I go back to the Mr. Bill days with SNL. Don't worry.

Starting point is 00:02:21 Yeah, I get the reference. Okay, so then here becomes the question then. So you brought up some great points here the other day. and specifically the point about July 2nd, 2027 as being the next leverage point for the Anaheim Ducks here. For those that weren't with us on that day for that show, can you go over why that is such a crucial day now that Leo Carlson is back with the Anaheim Ducks?

Starting point is 00:02:52 Sure. So the quick rewind is that this offer sheet is front-loaded, which means there's a massive signing bonus like today-ish. of 18 or 19 million cash. And then there's another one on the first day of the 2027, 20 year of another 18 million or seven. What does that mean? Two things, right?

Starting point is 00:03:09 One, Henry Samaelli has to cut two very big checks. But number two, after he cuts that second check on or about July 2nd, 2027, Leo Carlson's base salary for that league year drops to $1 million. And his average cash remaining over the final four years drops to like 12.5 million, which is super manageable. And so what we talked about, and this may or may not happen, and it probably won't because Leo is a great player and they may want to keep him and put water under the bridge. But if not, you know, if Anaheim chooses to move him, the time to do it would be after paying that second bonus where he's a $1 million cash player. And he has no trade protection.

Starting point is 00:03:47 He can be traded at will by Anaheim, you know, anytime that season or until the final year. And what we talked about a few days ago was if Philly wanted to insert sort of a little bit more of a poison pill on the offer sheet, they might have concerned shifting. that year two, 2027, 28 league year signing bonus to the day after the trade deadline in 2027, 28, because if so, that would handcuff Anaheim, one, to not trade him with a reduced cash hit until at least the second year deadline. And if they didn't, if they tried to move him before, well, then an acquirer would have to eat that 18 million extra, which would be a real tough pill to swallow, whereas, you know, maybe Anaheim bites a bullet anyway just to sort of move on from the player at that point.

Starting point is 00:04:25 Um, the nature of the, uh, outside of that one issue, you know, I, I looked at the Flyers, I looked at the Philadelphia Flyers, uh, offer sheet as we all did. And the compensation is the four first rounders. And we said, well, you know what? That's, that seems like a lot. But you get a play in a little like Leo Carlson, you're going to, how you're going to be up higher in the metropolitan division, et cetera. And you're already a team that's on the grow. So those four first round picks are not going to be top five. They're not going to be top 10. They're going to, they're going to be cheaper picks down the road. And the other thing, which other people have pointed out too, is that they already have a

Starting point is 00:05:01 first-round draft pick from the Toronto Maple Leafs. So if you squint, you can say, well, from Philly's point of view, the compensation is really only three first-round draft picks because we have another first-round draft pick from the Toronto Maple Leafs. Would you, as an AGM or GM, look at that and squint at it and say, you know what, we can make it only feel like three first-rounders? A little bit of a sunk-cost argument. reminds me of like when I started in Florida, there was a book, and I don't remember who made it in the front office, but it was like the oral history of all our moves and like post-talk rationalization.

Starting point is 00:05:32 Minnesota. Minnesota. Minnesota. Yeah. It was maybe. Like so I make it up, and it was like, you know, we traded Pavel Boree for an eighth round pick. But that eighth round pick was swapped three more times and then used for Sasha Borkov. So that Boree trade was good. And it's like, yeah, it's a little too cheap. You know, you can you can make decisions and be like, we have a surplus.

Starting point is 00:05:53 of draft picks, we can act accordingly. But to sort of, you know, I think you're sure, in a way, look at each move in the vacuum and say, you know, is there a positive, expected value from this particular transaction? I do think teams get into trouble. They think they're creating a position of surplus. And be like, oh, we have so much cap space because we did X, Y. Let's throw a little bit more on this player.

Starting point is 00:06:12 That's always a dangerous move. If they're like, oh, I just hit it at, let's just play a little black shock on the way out. And then by the time you leave, you're like, I'm not in that good position. You know, I was having a conversation with Craig Wyshinsky from ESPN the other day, and we were talking about the new style of manager in the NHL. Like one of the things that I think we've looked at right now, whether it's Theo Iserman or Pat Verbeek, the way, the old school ways of running an NHL team are really getting exposed here. Like the flashlight is on and everybody sees what it's all about. And that's not the way you can run teams here or handle people, et cetera.

Starting point is 00:06:55 Like there's a new breed of general manager in the NHL. When you look at how now toolboxes are being used fully, what's the next sort of, what's the cascade from a manager's point of view? I've looked at a lot of this and said one of the common denominators is not so much did I play left wing for four years in Swift Current? It's did I go to law school? Like, how do you look at, like, who are going to be the next successful managers in the NHL? Yeah, I mean, I thought this was going to happen a long time ago, and maybe it still won't happen for a long time. It's a good point.

Starting point is 00:07:37 Like, the game gets more complex. The CBA, when I first came in and made in working with a lot of lawyers and guys like Tomlin and Lauren Skilman come in into rules that in the past they weren't in as much. You know, having said that, there's people with, like, diverse and random walks in life who become, like, really good critical thinkers. who can be great in these rules. So you never know, you never know sort of who might come in and be able to punch above their expected weight. You know, but having said that,

Starting point is 00:08:04 you know, we always say it's a Codiacat League and with both teams having successes, like a Carolina, but also making blunders like some teams might, maybe without, you know, folks like how you described in rules like that, you know, you think there will be more change and, you know, maybe it will just happen as a function of, you know,

Starting point is 00:08:24 more ownership, more private equity. That sort of makes that next way to come through. What do you think happens next? I mean, I think a lot of us look at Adam Fantilli, like Don Waddell needs more headaches this summer. I think a lot of us, maybe not as much. Look at Kyle Davidson on the Chicago Blackhawks with Connor Bedard, who's now, have you mentioned it.

Starting point is 00:08:44 I mean, it would have been a headline story had all this stuff not happen today. It's out for four months after surgery on his right shoulder after that, unfortunate incident in Vancouver. what do you think is next as far as, you know, maybe, and listen, I don't think that it'll be Philadelphia, but I don't think we would be surprised if someone wasn't out there saying, all right, it's our moment to pounce here on Adam Fantilli. You know, I've wondered about Seattle. The general manager went to Michigan.

Starting point is 00:09:12 Maddie Baneers went to Michigan. They just brought in Mackie Samuoskevich. He went to Michigan. Adam Fantilli went to, like, I don't think that it would surprise anybody if that was a play for Seattle. but you've sat in these chairs. Like, what do you expect now? Yeah, I think that's right.

Starting point is 00:09:28 Like, I think Fantilly will have a target just because Columbus might not be on the most solid footing as some of these other orgs in terms of some of the turmoil you mentioned. The other one I'd wonder about would be Edvinson. And the fun one with Detroit is like, not only is Stevie Y facing that storm right now with Dylan Larkin, but Edvinson, Lucas Raymond, and Larkin, I believe all share the Pat Brisson, J.P. Perry, agency. And so that's just a little tidbit that might make things more interesting there. I know

Starting point is 00:10:00 not every agency, Dan Milstein being so public about whether they do or don't solicit offer sheets from clubs for their players. But it wouldn't be shocking. You know, Evanston's quality elicited one. And like as time goes on and these guys remain unsigned, it becomes more likely. So yeah, I don't know if Philly's the team that goes for fat, you know, that goes for Fantilia. It only comes down to like

Starting point is 00:10:22 do they value him in sort of the same class as Leo, and they might or they might not, but I wouldn't be surprised if that offer sheet came down for him and just to your point a second ago, like, you know, the more we have progressive innovative managers, the more we're going to see moves the life that's going forward. To the other offer sheet, let's close on this one. By the way, is there anything about the Leo Carlson offer sheet

Starting point is 00:10:45 that you want to, you know, empty the tank about? Anything that you think people have missed, the specific areas you think are critical or important, for us to pay attention to now that this story is at least done temporarily? I think we've covered it well. I think the takeaway is just that every single lever matters, and there's so much esoteric maneuverability inside the CBA, and even though this league has been around for a long time,

Starting point is 00:11:10 there's 32 teams and there's been thousands of contracts, there's always little edges that can be gained and little ways to maybe make an offer sheet a little tougher or a contract a little more manageable, and that's a neat takeaway. I think that's all sort of that we haven't covered on that. Okay. To the other offer sheet then quickly.

Starting point is 00:11:27 What do you think is next for Sunny Mehta? Like he puts the offer sheet in, signs Barrett Hayton to the offer sheet, second-round draft pick is a compensation, Utah matches. I get it. It, you know, it keeps him there until the TG Genliz and the Caleb Dain-YAs are ready, et cetera. But if you're Sunny Mehta right now, right now he's going through a process of improving this team and all. also sort of undoing a sort of Gordian knot that the previous regime kind of had this team tied up in. What do you think Sunny Mehta does next year in New Jersey? I think he has options, which is the big win for him, right?

Starting point is 00:12:07 Like he was able to get out from the Marksum contract without having to open up that second buyout window and buying him out. He signed Ritsch two to an easily manageable number on a bridge. you know, he brought in some draft picks for Simone Nemich without committing cap space there, which I think is a smart move. And so now, like, the best thing I'd say about Sunny's position is, like, who knows? But he has options. He has cap space. He has picks.

Starting point is 00:12:32 And, you know, I don't know where he'll go with it. But, like, he's his, you know, he's a poker player. He's got a lot of outs. And I bet he uses something. Dad, look what I got for me. He's still in. Does your daughter want to weigh in on the offer sheet with Leo Carlin? Sophie, what's the New Jersey do?

Starting point is 00:12:47 What should New Jersey do? I get that reaction often when I ask my goofy questions. You're just humoring me. Number one job is always dad. Go do it, Steve. It's always a pleasure, man. We'll catch up soon. That was great.

Starting point is 00:13:03 Thanks, Jeff. See ya.

The Sheet with Jeff Marek - On the Sheet: Steve Werier on Offer Sheets, Anaheim, Philadelphia, and more

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