The Startup Ideas Podcast - Will Meta Bounce Back? (with Nikita Bier)

Episode Date: February 15, 2022

When Meta lost more than $230 billion almost overnight many people questioned -- is Meta done? On this episode of Where It Happens, former Meta employee Nikita Bier (@nikitabier) joins hosts Sahil Bloom (@sahilbloom) and Greg Isenberg (@gregisenberg) to explore if Meta can recover and how it might happen. They also explore decentralized mobile networks, the future of music, and how Web2 and Web3 can co-exist.Want more community? Learn more here: http://trwih.comSPECIAL THANKS TO OUR SPONSORSCopy: This episode is brought to you by Beam. We can’t get enough of their Dream Powder. We both personally take this before bed a few times a week and wake up refreshed in the morning. Their nano-CBD helps improve your body’s ability to absorb CBD, making their product the perfect supplement before you go to bed. And now Beam is offering $20 off any order of $75 or more with the code ROOM at beamorganics.com/room.This episode is also brought to you by OpenPhone. OpenPhone is an all-in-one business phone system that can help your startup look more credible—and it works right from your existing smartphone or computer. Each phone number comes with its own inbox for managing calls, texts, and voicemails together—making it easy to keep track of every conversation. Sign up and start using your new business number in minutes. Visit OpenPhone.co/room to save 20% on your first six months.

Dude, what's going on? I'm so excited for, so excited for this one. Mailbag episode. Yeah, this is, I mean, Nikita, I haven't seen you in years, and I, I follow every tweet you do. So it's, I'm having like a celebrity shock situation. No, I'm sorry. I'm sorry you've had to read everything I've said. It must be mentally taxing on you.

Well, the funny thing about Nikita, so we're in a group chat with Nikita. You just said you haven't seen him in years, which I'm. I find so funny because we basically talk every single day in this group chat. I've seen Nikita within the last year. Nikita and I had a big night out in L.A. Not too long ago, which was a blast. But the funniest thing about Nikita is that most people have no clue what this man looks like in real life because he is a cartoon avatar shit poster on Twitter. And I like to keep it that way.

You know, I run into people. I tell them my name. They're like, wait a minute. I follow you on Twitter. And, you know, it's. I still get all the benefits of fame without any recognition. Smart man. Be walking around a grocery store.

No one bothers me. Not that I'm even at that level or anything. Maybe someday, though. Maybe someday. Well, we're pumped to have you on for at least a little bit of this mailbag episode. I am going to be drinking. I don't know if you guys are drinking. It's probably too early Nikita's time.

Maybe not. But I'm drinking Kentucky owl rye, 10-year rye. This was actually, you know, I've been doing. these like whiskey rambling threads on sundays i i um i kind of decided that everything had become too performative as i had like scaled on twitter and so i was just like kind of fuck it and i'm just going to write off the cuff on random stuff and like hot takes and things so i got a little drunk two weekends ago and wrote this thread and people seem to like it like a lot of cool people followed me it got shared by like this famous cricket player that fired up my indian family and so then i decided i

I was going to do it again, and a bunch of people sent me whiskey. So I got this great bottle of whiskey sent to me, and I did it yesterday again. And like some people attacked me for some of the things I said, but for the most part, it was pretty good. Can I comment on your whiskey thread before we, you know, talk to Nikita? So please hit me. You, I read both your threads. They're amazing. But like, if I'm going to drink a bunch of whiskey and write a thread, like, it's not going to be as well crafted as you.

your thread. You're even an immaculate threat threat both times. So like how? Well, first off, two whiskeys, not four. So that helps. It definitely starts to trail off. Some of the later tweets even I can see like I made like grammatical errors and things. But you also got to know like my baseline is highly crafted like pure like really immaculate shit. And so that for me was like pushing the boundaries a lot of it but yes i agree with you it still is like in the grand scheme of things it still looks that way probably yeah i would i would agree that the quality has certainly degraded it's got to nekita level it got to nekita level it wasn't quite on shippost your level i mean the palpable tension between shitpost twitter and thread twitter right now is you know

you can really feel it like you can cut it with a butter knife for sure yeah We're definitely, we're rivals in the Twitter sphere. Well, I like it. So let's dive in. 2022 is a great time to take control of your sleep. I used to sleep like crap, but not anymore. Ever since I found Beam CBD's dream sleep product. It's been a complete game changer for my sleep.

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To get started and save 20% on your first six months, visit openphone.co slash room. Again, that's openphone.com slash room to save 20% on your first six months. You won't regret it. Greg, I know you and I both, you and I both have a little bit of a list of things we wanted to cover. You want to start with mine? I feel like I've got one to start that I feel like,

is going to be great for, so maybe we can start on my list. So, Nikita, I mean, Nikita's background just for anyone that doesn't know, and he can talk a little bit more about it as well. He's a founder, multi-time founder. And other than being an amazing Twitter follow, he founded and built a business called TBH that was sold to Facebook for a bunch of money. And then he proceeded to work at Facebook, heroically, for several years. as his stock vested out from that original deal.

He's recently separated from the company and onto bigger and better things. Beyond just ship posting, he is building something new that's going to be cool that was memed to death a few weeks ago on Twitter. Can I interrupt you for one clarifying point? Go. So, Nikita, and you'll agree. I think you'll agree with me on this. It wasn't as clean as like, hey, I started a company and it was TBH and I sold it to Facebook.

look. No, no, it didn't work that way. We built, we did it for five years. We built 15 apps. We were about to shut down. We were very close to it. And the 15th app went straight to number one in the app store right as we were like basically turning off the lights on the office. It was our Hail Mary. But at the same time, it was sort of a magnum opus of everything we had learned over the years. And the moment that it dropped, you know, we were seeing exponential growth and it turned into a very competitive bidding process between a bunch of, you know, big names in Silicon Valley. And we closed the, we got the term sheet within six weeks of launching the app. And, and we sold it. It was kind of like a dream come true situation, basically like a movie. It's kind of a crazy. So I didn't know that.

First off. So Greg, I'm glad you paused and asked. I didn't know that it was the 15th out of 15 things. When I read stories about it, when I, like, looked you up when we first connected, it always just, it's like the, you know, the one line clickbait of like, you know, started and sold company for $100 million in a hundred days or something. Like is the headline that I'll always read, which is fucking amazing. Don't get me wrong. Super dope. It's sort of cooler that this was like your last thing. And it was really, you know, took me 10 years to be an overnight success type situation where you pounded your head into a wall for a long time. And then this final thing really worked.

Yeah, and I don't even think we'd be able to pull it off if it wasn't our 15th thing, because when it hit, we knew exactly what to do. We knew exactly how to scale it. We knew exactly how to maintain relationships with the press and media. We knew what we were doing. But if we just struck it on the first try, I think it would have crashed and burned really quickly. So I'm actually kind of glad it.

It built character, and it also made us really hit it out of the park. I mean, nine million users in I think it was like 90 days. It was a wild ride. That's so insane. I love it. And now, you know, now companies come to you to get advice on those things from the 14 headaches, I'm sure, just as much as the one success. So, yeah, I mean, it's awesome. And we have you on for a number of reasons beyond just that one story, which is amazing.

But I want the first thing on my list, Greg, is I want to talk about Facebook and the Facebook earnings. I don't know what catastrophe or like apocalypse or whatever I'm going to call it. So to set the stage on this, Facebook announces earnings last week and basically plunges like 26 percent or something like that on the back of it. It erased $250 billion of market value in a single day. It was the largest single day wipeout of market value in history ever. Point blank. Mark Zuckerberg lost.

like $30 billion of net worth in the single day. Snap got pulled down on the back of it that day, only to whipsaw the other way, 60 up to 60% after dropping like 30% on the day of Facebook's announcement, just like a totally insane set of events. I want to talk about it because it's really interesting to think through what the hell was going on. I am on the record. You could check the tapes on this. I was on CNBC talking about Facebook, maybe two months ago,

they changed their name to meta, saying that basically I thought it was like PR 101, Crisis Management 101, that they had a fundamental product issue that was going on addressed and that they were going to be in trouble. So they were grabbing attention, shifting to the metaverse, doing all of those things. They've now come out and said that some of the stuff that Apple has done with the ATT, the app tracking transparency is going to cause a $10 billion hit to their business in 2022. There's so many things happening here. And Nikita, having been at Facebook is a great person to comment on them. So can you just explain a little bit of disposition that Facebook is in now and where you see it going?

Yeah. So to set some context on that market cap drop, the last record holder for that drop was also Facebook. This is the second time they've set the record. What was the first one's number? What was that? How much was the first one? I think it was in like the upper like hundreds of millions, hundreds of billions. But I remember because I worked there when it happened and I remember reading that headline.

But, you know, so when I joined Facebook, I never had a real job before. And I came in there and I was like blown away. This company really knows how to grow products. Like I looked through, you know, the workplace social network, which is where all the employees kind of engage. and they are treating growth as like an academic discipline. And that's what Facebook has built is like a machine that can grow products. However, the thing that they really struggle with is zero to one creating new products. And that doesn't only plague Facebook.

Many other companies, most of big tech has not ever built in-house zero-to-one products that have broken out. like the iPhone it was truly like a historical example that that happened but i think if you look across all of big tech you rarely see that happen and at this okay so setting the stage there that they can't build zero to one really that well um they have huge amounts of competition coming in iMessage is going after close friends uh and the and that's that's where their high r p uh uh r p users are the ones that bring in the bulk of the revenue are in the U.S., and iPhone is eating, or IMessage is eating their lunch. On the content and entertainment side, TikTok is just growing like a weed, and everybody

saw this coming two years ago just based on the growth trajectories. And the third kind of terrifying thing is they can't acquire. So the regulators, the FTC, they won't sign off on any sort of large acquisition of a user base. So they're losing users from an engagement from these two other competitors. And at the same time, they can't really buy their way out of it like they did with Instagram in the past or WhatsApp. So, Nikita, it's such a fast. You know, you're king for the day. You're Nikita Zuckerberg.

Does, you know, what do you do? Do you like break up Facebook? Like, what's your plan? or do you just go home and cry and just, is this, you know, is it just going to be, you know, a zombie company for the next 20 years? So it's a tricky situation. Like, I don't think there's an easy answer here. There's no silver bullet. You know, and people ask, like, why can't they just start building in-house?

It's not easy for them to build in-house. Big Tech doesn't do that well. the incentives aren't really aligned to get employees to take big swings. You know, you might get a big bonus for making the next Instagram, but I don't know anyone who'd grind it out, you know, that grind it out for that sort of reward. They'd rather just keep it all for themselves and start their own company. So, you know, the environment isn't really conducive to founders. They're certainly trying.

They've created the new product experimentation org, which I was up. a part of the creation of that. But it's tough. Like I had some crazy ideas and I was like, I don't know if I could build it in this context. It's so interesting because as investors, like all three of us do quite a bit of angel investing or investing. And one of the most common questions that new founders get is like, oh, why won't, you know, Facebook just come and do this or why wouldn't Twitter just go and do this?

And like, you'll be dead if one of the big companies just decides they want to do this. And then you get the counterpoint to it, which is literally that there. are so few examples of an incumbent figuring out innovation and being able to go and do something zero to one that it actually makes you feel better about these startups because like a laser focus on a single thing will always outperform these big companies that are like trying to hobble over you know like a big ogre to to go and do something and like jankly pull something together within a new market yeah i mean that that's what i was worried as as a founder when i was building social apps i was like i don't want to show it to any facebook employees they

might copy it. But after being on the inside, it takes about a year of collecting data for them to even think about building something like this or building something they see happening in the market. And then it takes three months of like a framing process where you do research, you put together slide decks that you send around to executives. And then you have another year after that to actually build it and get it to pass all the legal sign-offs. So you're looking at almost like, usually like over two years to respond. I remember I was sounding the alarm bells for Clubhouse. I was like this is a new format that's pretty interesting.

And, you know, it took it took some time for people to catch on to it. That's such gold, by the way. Like for a startup founder out there to hear that, that like the bureaucracy and the absurdity of these big tech companies and the committees and the layers that it has to go through to actually compete against you. I mean, what a call to arms, if you're a startup founder out there worried about starting something because of, you know, the potential competition from a big tech company. It might actually be a good thing for them to even know you exist because then there's a bigger M&A appetite for them to go after it if Facebook could ever acquire things again. Yeah, that's an interesting point that you raised actually too is like this whole FTC thing has been so confusing to me because you on one hand have, you know, government just goes. going after the big American tech companies and basically just saying that like any acquisition they do is going to come under, you know, review.

And then you have TikTok, which is Chinese owned and de facto controlled by the Chinese government, by the way, and owns the data of literally every single teenager in the United States. And we're just going to not say anything about that. And everyone like, you know, Trump kind of went on his crusade. Then there was the whole weird thing where he was going to like say that Oracle was going to take over the U.S. business of TikTok, which was weird and. bizarre, but we're just not going to talk about TikTok and the fact that like the Chinese government has direct access to the data of millions of teenagers in the U.S., but if Facebook wants to go acquire

some tiny company, it's going to get tons of shit for it. Yeah, and I think the public thinks that, you know, Facebook doesn't, it can't be trusted to manage sort of the problems that have plagued its platform, like misinformation, integrity issues. But, you know, one thing that I, one area that I hold like a lot of respect for as a founder who, you know, is not that excited about working at a place like Facebook, they have some of the best integrity systems, the best spam, the best misinformation detection systems out of any, probably any company in the world.

And would we really want to entrust a Chinese company to handle sort of those problems? because that's basically the message that the FTC is sending is we're going to kind of control the growth of this other company to let this to let FTCC continue to grow. So I think it's kind of a shame because I would I would want those controls to be on our shores. And they're really not. I feel like the better branding play would have been if Facebook rebranded to USA instead of meta. And it was just like this whole rally around. you know, almost like how, when I think a Ford American owned. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. I actually, that's kind of genius. I think that this last earnings call, though, I think, you know, there was some, you know, 4D chess being played to show. I mean, it took a huge hit to the market cap, but I think it showed to the world that this is a competitive market, that the antitrust concerns might be overblown. And, you know, certainly Facebook dominates in a certain age cohorts, certain localities, but it's facing extreme competitive pressures from other areas. So, but I think highlighting that and making it visible and taking a hit financially might be a short run, like a short term cost for a longer term play.

I mean, it also showed the craziness of its reliance. I mean, the impact that Apple's ATT change had on Facebook's business is like crazy. I mean, the app tracking transparency thing, Apple basically, you know, allowing you to opt out of having apps track your activity, which for people that don't understand it, basically limits Facebook's ability to have highly qualified targeted ads. And so that reduces the level of pricing that Facebook is able to pass through to advertisers on the platform, which is basically what Facebook's business is. It's an ad business. And Ben Thompson, I think, talked about it. Basically, it was $10 billion that was going to be the impact to Facebook in 2022 was what they said on the earnings call, which, as he pointed out, it's a pricing change because it's the level of price you can charge to the advertisers, which is a direct hit to the bottom line of Facebook and is a massive proportion of their annual. earnings that are actually going to get hit there. So the market response actually felt like it

made sense. I just don't think people, I don't think people fully understood how impactful Apple's one single change could be to the entire ecosystem that existed out there of all these other players that rely on that tracking mechanism. Yeah, it goes to show that the monopoly might not be Facebook. It might very well be Apple. The fact that they could just, you know, hobble a bunch of small businesses overnight by hurting the performance of ads. I think, you know, a lot of people say, oh, we're really sticking it to Facebook. But realistically, the people that are impacted the most are the owners of small businesses. So I think the FTC might be better to realign their whole probe against the company that controls our phones. Facebook is just such a fun enemy.

I mean, even since the early days, right? Like Mark Zuckerberg has been so fun. to hate for all of these, you know, uh, regulators for the government. Ever since the days of social network when he was kind of like painted as this like weird evil genius villain. And I actually don't think any of it is fair. Um, but he was painted that way. And that was the image you had of him and the whole thing with the Winkle vosses and this whole story about Zuckerberg and who he was, right or wrong, it's like been the image that's

been painted of him that I think has been implanted into the American mind. Um, and honestly, my take on privacy too is, like, like people don't actually really care to the point where they're not really willing to pay extra money to have more privacy. That's like one of my hot takes that exists out there. And so I just think part of it is just imagery and figuring out how to shift that perception again for them because it's, I think it's like 10 plus years in the making how it's, yeah, my, here's my take on that.

My take is a lot of people feel like Mark Zuckerberg is punchable. and if Mark Zucker, okay, a couple of things actually. If Mark Zuckerberg wasn't the founder and CEO of Facebook, I don't think the stock would have dropped as much. I feel like it's so polarizing because like people have this image of him and they want, so many people want to see him lose. And they see it as one person. I don't know how, you know, Facebook must have like 100,000 employees,

but they, you know, they see it as one person. And the second thing is, if the social network didn't come out, I feel like it also wouldn't be that polarizing. I feel like so many people saw the social network. And because of that, we have this image of like Sean Parker, Mark Zuckerberg, the whole like Silicon Valley. Like shaped a whole like generation. It shaped our generation of entrepreneurs. Totally. 100%.

I think a lot of this hatred is totally. misplaced. I mean, I don't think, like, people think, oh, it's Facebook's trying to make more money off of us. At the end of the day, like, this is my kind of polarizing opinion. Companies exist, like, big tech companies exist for the egos of the founders. And at the end of the day, he just wants to be liked. He just wants to build something that helps people. I mean, he's made enough money. So it's not like making another $20 billion is really going to change anything warm. So I think like the public's kind of animosity is a little bit misplaced here. But yeah, I know if I say that out loud and I am right now, I'm going to get shit on

Twitter because everyone wants to be. Everyone won't be the first or last time. All of us get shit on on Twitter. Like you guys probably get shit on on Twitter more than I do to date, but now I'm starting to come into it now that I've got these like got the drunk threads going. So I'm going to join you guys in the getting hate on Twitter land. Wait, before Nikita leaves, I need to know because, you know, I bought some shares of Facebook literally right before this call. That's why I was late. I'm sorry. Are you, call your shot.

Yeah, you know, this isn't financial advice, but like, you know, are you bullish or bearish on Facebook at these current prices? I mean, they're facing some serious, some serious issues here. and I don't think there's an easy way out. I think the metaverse is many years away. Sorry, Greg. I don't see us wearing face computers anytime in the short term. So, you know, there has to be some Hail Mary here, I think, for them to climb out of this. At the same time, though, like a 16x PE ratio, for that amount of talent at that company,

there's some value there. So this is not financial advice. So wait. So wait, are you bullish or bearish? I don't know. I think they have a shit ton. Bottom line is they have a shit ton of talent for that P.E. ratio.

I think it's a very good value by right now. But we're Scott Galloway on it? I just don't know. I can't see where the route out is right now for them. So that's what gives me pause. I just follow, I go anti-portfolio of Turner Novak, Turner, shout out, banana cap. Although Turner was proven right. You tweeted against him, Nikita, on Snapchat, and then the next day it was up 60%.

I made a 500% trade up a snap on that day. I saw that. You'll look really hard to do it. Nice. Nice. I'm impressed. Well, dude, thank you so much for joining to jam on this one. Appreciate you.

And look forward to bringing you back on for a proper episode as well. Yeah, thanks for having me. And good luck, guys. Thank you. I wanted to drop my app, by the way. Oh, hit us. All right. So what I'm building is, and then you can cut me off right there.

Perfect. What a legend. What a legend. What an exit. What an exit. All right, man. See you, guys. All right.

That was fun. All right. That was really fun. I'm glad we brought him on to talk about that. I still am not sure whether he's bullish or bearish on Facebook, but we can take it to the- Are you bullish or bearish on Facebook at these levels? I'd buy Facebook here. I mean, I'm not, I don't buy individual stocks.

I've talked to you about this. I only buy ETFs, like, you know, market tracking things. And I was, I've been buying big tech stuff on this, on this, like, drop over the last several weeks. I mean, there are some names that are just that feel under the surface, really undervalue. you'd hear. So, I don't know. I'm a buyer. What is a 16 P.E.

ratio on Facebook? That's absurdity. That's the absurd. But I don't, like, I don't know what that means, bro. I'm not a head fund.

I know what it means and I get it. But it's not like, everyone throws these numbers around and they're like, oh, 16. Well, like five years ago, that was probably high,

right? It's just multiples that expanded. So I don't know. But it does just seem like, it's not like Facebook's not going to be a big of future. So, Personally, I like betting on mega stuff and things I'm never going to sell. I don't trade.

My active strategy in markets is I literally buy with never intending to sell. And I intend to take loans against holdings and never sell so that I can not have to pay taxes in the future. Pro tip. But I don't intend to ever sell. And I am perfectly happy owning big U.S. tech over the next 20 years. I mean, Apple included, by the way, given what they were able to do to this entire market with that one chain. I love Apple. A couple of things.

The world runs on WhatsApp. Like literally runs on it. So, you know, that is really the crown jewel of Facebook, in my opinion. So a big believer in WhatsApp, even though it's hard to monetize messaging apps. So like that's the counterpoint to what I just said is just like it's just harder to monetize. But like who's to say they can't turn WhatsApp into more of a social network? So that's number one. Number two, like, I feel like they needed this, like, compression.

And Nikita kind of talked about it, but, like, they needed this compression to basically be an underdog. And I feel like, I don't know, a year or two, three years from now, like, I feel like they're going to, they're going to ship some stuff and, and some of it's going to work. So I'm a, I think, I think the stock will outperform. That's what I think. Yeah. That's a good bet. I think it's a good bet. He pointed it out. The level of talent there is hard to bet against at these prices. So I'm with it. I totally get it. You want to jump to the next thing? I know we've got a handful of other things to get through. You want to hit one from your list? You want to do another one for one? I'll kick it off. So are you familiar with the nouns project? The red glasses. Yeah, red glasses, blue glasses, yellow glasses.

So basically what it is for context is, if you go to nouns.wtf, you can pull it up right now. I am. It's an NFT project where they sell these characters. They're called nouns, and they wear these glasses, kind of like what I'm wearing, if, you know, that kind of vibe. and every day it's an auction forever and there's a new one every single day and these things go for hundreds of thousands of dollars every single day one per day and um the founding team of which dom who's the co-founder of vine is on the founding team and this you know this guy gremplin who's a well-known nfti artists on the founding team these like well-known people don't take a cut of the

actual sales because they've raised, you know, millions of dollars, they actually just get, I think, it's like one in every 10, I think, of the actual nouns goes to their, their wallet. And the big innovation around nouns is this thing called CCO, which is Create a Common Zero, which is this idea that the artwork is in the public domain. So even if you, Sahel, you go and buy. this like, you know, eight big character with these like blue glasses. You actually don't own it. The whole world owns it.

So I can actually, you can go spend $400,000 on this little nouns guy. And I can actually go down, like right click, save as a JPEG, go to a screen preener and actually like, you know, wear, you know, sell hats. Jack Butcher, our friend Jack Butcher is doing that. Like I bought last night for $69, obviously, a hoodie with a blue noun's classes. Obviously, by the way, on $69.

Yeah. And a lot of people look at that and they're like, wow, I'm going to spend $300,000 on this like NFT and I don't even own the rights. That's crazy. But because it's in the creative, you know, creative commons, you know, your meme spreads a lot quicker, which is the bet. And it's this whole, you know, it's kind of interesting. So, oh, you got you.

You want to say saying? Yeah, so it's interesting because I've written about this stuff in the past. Like I've written about Disney's IP coming into public domain and how Disney will fight to the death to maintain their. They've actually changed IP law in the U.S. on like seven or eight occasions to avoid Mickey Mouse coming into the public domain. And yet now you have this company in nouns or entity that is actively leaving things into the public domain immediately. So I'm trying to wrestle, you know, I'm trying to like the juxtaposition of old world and new world here is very, very real. I think while it sounds like CCO is just like so simple and small, it's actually such a game changer. And I think brands in 2022 or in 2023, you know, are going to leverage CCO and it's going to be, it's going to be huge.

But what I wanted to talk about now that you understand the little of the stage in the context of nouns. is nouns just published or sorry, Bud Light just partnered with nouns. And they released a Super Bowl commercial. It's going to be on the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl is this Sunday, February or whatever Sunday is. And they just did the release of it. And in the Bud Light commercial, there's the, you know, character walks into this, like, museum. And there's this, like, massive nouns glasses.

A.k.a. Nouns are mainstream. A.k.a. NFTs are mainstream. A.k.a.a. C.C. Zero is mainstream. So I have a handful of questions. I mean, it does seem like a big deal. And I'm not shocked that there is, like, Web 3 influence in Super Bowl ads, by the way, just because of how it's captured public attention. But I will say there's a lot of interesting features here that, you know, just as like a curious observer that I'm looking at, Number one, talk to me about this whole idea of the nouns now treasury. So all of the proceeds, if I'm reading it correctly, from these auctions are going into this treasury. Is the treasury, what are they using the treasury for and like this partnership with Budweiser?

Is it like related to the treasury? Do you know anything about how they're how they're going to be. Yeah. So nouns, the way it works is you buy a noun. And if you're lucky enough to spend $300,000 and you get this noun, what you get is one, vote in the Dow. For those of you don't know, Dow decentralized autonomous organization, basically a fancy way of saying it's like a crypto company.

Let's put it that way. And they vote on ways to spend that treasury. So I actually think that I haven't looked into it, but I'm pretty sure that they, this Bud Light deal came from a vote that the community did to get to get. the nouns word out there. This is pretty fascinating. I pulled up the Bud Light Super Bowl ad and the imagery around it. First off, it's super cool, and it looks like it's going to be a cool ad.

So I'm excited to actually see it on Sunday during the game. But it does feel, I mean, this public domain thing is what I'm wrestling with and that I think is so interesting. I've seen nouns, the glasses, which are very distinct looking. We'll include an image or something when we post the episode. but you and I were both in the Cryptodes project, and you owned a Cryptoad that had Noun's glasses, and those were considered more rare. So is that part of the IP that we're talking about that's in public domain?

Like, can other NFT projects use Nouns glasses, or do they have to be related to nouns to use that? Yeah, so great question. Cryptoads was a project that was started by Gremlin, one of the artists of Nouns. And so he went and used, you know, the nouns glasses and, you know, a lot of cryptodes have nouns glasses. That being said, there's another project, for example, called the Littles. And it's completely unrelated from cryptodes or nouns or any projects to do with that team. And a lot of those NFTs have nouns glasses. And they're able to do it because it's CC0.

It's completely in the public domain. It's, okay, so here's my take on this that I'm just formulating while you're explaining all of this to me. This is fascinating because what you have is this collision of old world IP management, which is Disney. And they're the pillar of that. And you have Disney who has protected with weapons going out and fighting people to of the death over their IP over the course of their history. Ever since releasing the Steamboat Willie Mickey Mouse back in the early 1900s, they have fought and spent millions, hundreds of millions of dollars to fight U.S. copyright trademark regulations in order to keep their IP out

of public domain. Now you have these new world companies and entities that are actually doing the exact opposite. They want their content and their IP in the public domain. Why? Because, as we talked about with Billy, the founder of Dogecoin a few weeks ago, memes control the universe. He who controls the memes controls the world. And that is such a fascinating shift because how do you drive enterprise value in this day and age? Is it now that you drive it via virality and memes? Maybe. And it's a really interesting live experiment in laboratory to see whether it works. I actually don't know the answer of whether it's going to work or not, but it's a pretty fascinating case study to see the collision of the two worlds.

Honestly, Mickey Mouse is actually coming up into public domain, I think, in 18 months or so, or at the end of 2023. So it's interesting to see whether that world will prevail or whether this new world that's being created by things like nouns will be the one that prevails and that will ultimately generate the most value going forward. Yeah, I think to me it's very clear who's going to win that battle. and you know Disney right?

I think you know here's the thesis of CC0 the thesis is that if you see I'll call it actually I'll call it the wordal thesis you know that game that you've been seeing

on Twitter and places like that like you play that game or you'll see that game so often that you might play it and it might be a part of your your ritual and your habit and your morning coffee. The same thing is true with nouns glasses. You might see nouns glasses, you know, on a billboard.

You might see it on your friend's profile picture. You might see it on a Super Bowl ad. You might see it in a, you know, you go into a store and they're selling nouns gears. And that might make you want to, you know, buy an NFT of nouns or, you know, maybe they make games in the future and you want to buy that game or access that game. So the thesis is the more touchpoints that you have of IP, the more likely you are, assuming it's good IP, the more likely you are to be connected to that IP, the more likely you are to buy products and services, the more likely you are to join that community, et cetera, et cetera. Yeah, it's really interesting because to me it's a question of like indirect and direct value attribution. traditional companies rely on direct value attribution.

If someone is out there producing t-shirts with Mickey Mouse on it, and Disney isn't earning the money from that, their traditional mindset is, that's bad for me. That's money that I should have been earning. They should have been buying a Disney t-shirt that had that printed, and I just lost money. A new way of thinking about that would be that is a great thing because now there are more people that are out there wearing Mickey,

mouse shirts that are then thinking about Mickey Mouse because everyone that sees them sees it and might feel a connection to that piece of IP or might know what that is. And then will rise the tide overall that will allow me to earn more money in the long term. And so that's where my head goes to on it is like I actually don't know. It's a math question to me of which model works and which one wins in the market in the long term. Because if the market determines that this new way works, which is let everyone. use it, share it, expand upon it, build it in different ways, use it like Lego blocks to create new

things, my gut tells me that model actually works better in the long run because more cool things get created with it in this like weird laboratory that we're building up in the future. I feel like the model of I create IP and I need to protect my IP is very much coming from a place of fear. You're leading with fear. And it's, you know, versus this new. world that we're entering, which is like, actually, I'm not fearful at all. I'm going to go in like open source basically my IP. And I'm so confident that the experience that, you know, the core experience that I've created is so compelling that the more touch points, the better. So for Disney, and actually I was at Disney World in Orlando this past weekend, that place isn't cheap.

It is not cheap. You know, it's, you know, if you're going as a ticket prices have gone way more than inflation over the course of history. I researched this recently for a piece that I wrote about. It's wild. Like you can easily spend, you know, you can either, you can go to Aspen or you can go to Orlando, basically. That's the vibe. And, but it's a fantastic experience. And I recommend people do it.

product people. This is a side note. Product people like go to Disney World and just see how much you know attention to detail. You know, the roads, the sounds, the smells, the whole thing is immaculate. But the point is it's super expensive and they're making high margin. So be confident. So Disney, be confident. Yeah. It's the analog to it that keeps coming to mind for me is this whole build and public movement. I feel like 10 years ago it was like blasphemy. me to tell a founder that they should talk about what they're doing and their numbers or their metrics or like product releases, whatever. And now you see founders tweeting out their ARR every month, products they're working on, things they're growing. Our friend Josh Fabian at Medify,

he literally, like he sends out his investor updates publicly every month. And that, I mean, 10 years ago, that's a literal blasphemy because you'd just be terrified that some competitor would come steal it. But it's interesting. It's all part of the same like open movement within the digital world. I actually, I don't know. I don't know. My gut tells me that more open leads to more memes, which will continue to drive growth of the ecosystem. And I think that that will win in the long run. But I'm curious. I'm really, really curious to see. I love this one. This was a great topic. I'm glad you got. Anthony Livendowski.

Do you know who that is? I do, but tell the listeners who that is. I love this shit, man. Anthony Lewandowski, I hope I'm pronouncing that right. Anthony Lewandowski was a, or is a self-driving car engineer, founder, entrepreneur. Most people would know him for the fact that he ran Google's self-driving car business. which became called Waymo for a long time. Left in 2016 and started this business called Auto that was doing self-driving trucks.

Auto was acquired by Uber shortly after founding, and Google did not like that. That someone that was recently at Google started a different business, got acquired by Uber, who had aspirations to build a large self-driving car business, given its business model. it turned into a massive lawsuit, criminal investigation into Levindowski, 33 counts, I believe he was charged with, trade secret theft, all of these scary things, pled guilty to one count and was sentenced to 18 months in prison for that charge, but was then pardoned by our former president, Donald Trump, and ended up getting out of it. Anthony Levindowski is back in the public sphere. He started a business, I think it's called Pronto AI, which is also self-driving vehicles. But most interestingly, he is now starting something called Paulin Mobile, which I saw in the news recently. There was a tech crunch article about it, which is basically a peer-to-peer open source wireless network.

And I want to talk about it because I think it's pretty fascinating. basically what they're doing is a it's crypto enabled and it is something that they started because the cars that he was building at Pronto AI actually needed good wireless mobile connectivity and so what they found was that it was hard to find in the Bay Area they were having issues with it so pollen mobile is a system that creates incentives via cryptocurrency called pollen tokens for people to put up basically little mini cell towers that are going to create wireless connectivity around the area. So you go and spend money up front to buy these systems. I think they're calling them something funny, like sparrows or hummingbirds or bees or something like that.

There's some kitchy name to go along with pollen. And you put one of these up, you pay them on 10,000 bucks or something to set one of these up. And you get incentivized for providing connectivity to the network, via pollen tokens, which then provide this system with capacity. People use it. The tokens become more valuable as people are trading in them, et cetera. I think it's pretty fascinating. K helium is the other one that I've seen doing this that was doing the Wi-Fi connectivity.

I'm curious for your takes on it. Yeah, my take is anywhere where there's incentives, human incentives, crypto can play a role there. It's a really great way to incentivize people. to do stuff. So what I like about this idea is it feels very natural to crypto. So it makes a lot of sense to me. I think it's a great idea. Yeah. First off, you're a design geek. Website is one of the most beautiful websites I've seen. PaulinMobile.io is the website. P-O-L-L-L-E-N-Mobile.I-O. Website is gorgeous.

and it lays out the whole thing. The names, they're calling them hummingbirds, bumblebees, and flowers, which like, we're going to have to talk to them about the naming because that's a lot. But I do think it's really interesting, like this whole idea of incentivizing people to create these kind of decentralized pillars that create capacity for a network. It's a pretty interesting use case. Helium has obviously been quite successful with what they've done on the Wi-Fi side. But I thought this was kind of a neat angle.

I was actually thinking about, I'm not in the Bay Area. They're launching in the Bay Area. But I was thinking about going and buying one of these things and just participating in it to learn. Because I find it to be a pretty interesting project. Yeah. This website is gorgeous. What I do like about this website, there's something I like about it and something I don't like about it. What I like about it is, you know, you scroll down a little bit and it says mine cryptic

mine crypto from your phone. And I think like that concept is just really compelling. Like I feel like a lot of crypto projects. And lay checkout, our firm is involved in a bunch where we'll see like it's basically just like too complicated. Like just like get it down to like five words. That anyone, you know. It's the Feynman technique. So explain it too much like I'm five. Exactly. Exactly. So I love that. You know, that's cool. What I don't like about it, and it's the opposite of explaining me, like, I'm five, is I'm going, you know, I went to, like, the how it works section, I think.

And it basically, they have a bunch of kind of words that are, here, let me pull it up. Like, earn bumblebees, earn flowers, earn hummingbirds. It's like, no, no, no, go back to earning crypto from your phone. you know yeah yeah they're definitely going pretty far with the whole pollen analogy a little further than i think but the concept itself people hate their wireless networks like people hate their phone companies nobody likes it and so the idea of like the centralized phone companies and in these little pockets you could create a decentralized version um where basically if you're using the network you pay and pollen tokens and the providers of the capacity again

get paid in pollen tokens. And pollen tokens appreciate as people speculate in them or as people buy them to invest in them to potentially use later, et cetera. It's sort of a little interesting microcosm experiment. Helium, I think, Andresen Horowitz backed and several others. There's something interesting here. And I don't know anything about Anthony Lewandowski. I just thought it was fascinating that he was back in the news because I remember reading

all about him when he had the whole self-driving car thing happened. So anyway, I think this is an interesting one to follow. I'm personally going to poke around a bit. If I was in the Bay Area, I really do think I would buy one of these little systems because I think it's fascinating. My advice for him is find a new name. Like the website, poulinmobile.io, like, I feel like what he needs to do and the team needs to do is like generate a lot of credibility. And like maybe there's a like an old telecommunication. darling company that he can go and buy the name the rights for that's like shut down or a brand

that's like shut down buy the name and then you know you know who did this actually but like bad example is tie lopez so he bought uh radio shack i don't know if you saw that oh yeah i remember that i did see that so tie lopez you know famous YouTuber has been buying up old brands and love him or hate him he's he's done a a good job at buying a lot of these brands. And he's turned RadioShack into a uniswap competitor, which is a uniswap, for those you don't know, is basically a crypto exchange competitor, decentralized crypto exchange. But you'll go to RadioShack because you're like, I remember RadioShack.

I have good, you know, yeah. And I think Radio Shack, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Radio Shack is one of those places that like people remember a distinct smell from Radio Shacks across the world. I know I talked about smells with Disney World, but it matters because it triggers your memory. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I just don't know what he wants. You know, like the Paulin Mobile thing, is it really going to be a core business or is it just that it's a spinoff? You know, they needed it for for the Pronto AI thing. Like I saw a quote in one of the articles.

He said the reason why we did this is simple. We needed reliable, affordable, mobile connectivity for our AVs, our autonomous vehicles, and we couldn't find it. So we built our own and realized it could be something others want. Necessity is the mother of invention. So there's a couple lessons in there. I mean, I think first off, kind of cool that he's just an enterprising founder, and they needed something that was functioning for their actual core startup,

and they went and built something else that's functioning that other people might want. That's pretty cool. and the whole concept of necessity is the mother of the notion. I really like that. It's the classic Slack story. I'm sure you know that story where. No. Stuart Butterfield,

Fender Slack, you know, started a gaming company called Glitch, raised a bunch of money for it, wasn't going so well. But he had built Slack, like the chat app, as a way to communicate with his team members and, you know, pivoted it to Slack. Yeah, from this game to Slack. And, you know, to your point around necessities, the mother of all inventions, they built it because they're just like, it's too hard to collaborate and connect.

What an amazing pivot story. I don't know how I didn't know that story, but that's awesome. Also a Canadian. That's right. Amazing. Amazing. Very cool. All right.

We've got a few minutes left. What else do you have on your list? I have one more, but we can save it for another time. What do you have? No, go for it. Okay. All right. Mine is Web 2 and Web 3, so I think you'll like it to.

Spotify. A lot in the news recently, for a variety of reasons. I want to talk more about the creator side of Spotify and how musicians are or are not earning money on the platform. There was this awesome piece that triggered me thinking about this in the hustle, I think it was, where they talked about Spotify's economic model and broke it down. I've personally been fascinated by the music industry for a long time. More recently, I've become really fascinated by it because I started seeing this abundance of Web3 music plays, which I'm sure you have. I know you have a bunch of friends that are investing in the space. You're investing in the space. I've just seen more and more companies that are trying to disrupt that landscape. And the music landscape is interesting and ripe for disruption for the exact reason that I want to talk about, which is you have artists on one side that are creating the content, creating the music. You have consumers who love it and are placing value on it and really embracing it. And

then you have all this rent being collected in the middle. And basically what's happened historically within the music industry is artists have actually received very little of the value they were creating for the consumers. And if you break it down at its highest level, I'm not like, you know, a fully Web3 red-pilled person, but the highest level of this is Web3 enables you to create a system where you can kind of cut out this middle layer of rent collection and aggregation. the people on the two ends, the artists and the consumers, can get more of the value that they create within this ecosystem. And artists in this case will be able to actually capture more of the value that they create for the consumers on the other end.

And the Spotify example was so pronounced around it that I thought it was worth talking about, which, you know, is basically the numbers were just striking to me. So recorded music revenues hit a high of $22.7 billion in 1999. From then until 2014, they dropped all the way to $7.3 billion, basically fell off a cliff. And that was with the rise of these new technologies that completely changed how artists were able to generate revenues. Spotify is the elephant in the room in this space. In music streaming, I think 30% of all streaming subscribers are Spotify subscribers. And basically they have a model for artists that works something like, and it's a little more complicated than this, but basically something like artists get this negotiated royalty rate on the overall Spotify revenues. And then an individual artist gets basically their percentage of the overall listens on the platform times that pool.

Only 2% of Spotify artists are earning more than $1,000 a year. and one-tenth of 1% 0.1% are earning over 100K per year. When you look at Spotify relative to other music streaming platforms, they are way lower than others, way lower than Title and some of the other players, in terms of the average payout per 1,000 streams for the artists. So my question to you, this was all really striking to me. My question to you is, can they sustain this as a

platform. And is something really broken here that needs to get fixed? Can they sustain this? No, they cannot sustain this. I think the music, the digital music experience is going to look really different in five years than it does today. When people talk about Web 3, they often talk about removing the middleman. what they sometimes don't talk about is deepening the relationship between two parties,

which I think, you know, we talked about incentives, incentivization. In pollen, it's a very similar thing. So, for example, there's this like band I like Rex Orange County. And, you know, I follow their YouTube. I follow their Instagram. I follow, or, you know, I follow, I obviously listen to his music on Spotify.

Like, I put in my calendar that on May 6th or whatever, he's coming to Miami. And I want to go there and I buy a ticket. And I'm just looking for ways to deepen my relationship. And I can't. I'm giving him, you know, a fraction of a penny for every whatever hundred plays or whatever it is. So I think one thing,

that's going to happen is artists, big, small, medium are going to have new tools to deepen their relationship, sell more things with their true 100,000, 10,000, 100,000 fans. So what's the right analog for this? Like, I'm thinking naturally in terms of consumer businesses. So let's play this out. So you have companies, historically, brands, and they used to try to have retail stores, and they would sell through

department stores and retail stores, and they would try to access customers. Amazon comes along and is the elephant in the room. And if you want to access the hundreds of millions of customers that go to Amazon every day, you have to sell through Amazon. But Amazon owns all your data. Amazon owns your customers. You don't

own that customer. And they're going to take a rent charge on it via their logistics fulfillment, via their advertising, everything. You don't own that customer. And now we're in a world where that Amazon model, which a lot of brands are still taking advantage of, coexists with brands increasingly finding ways to engage in an immersive experience directly with their customers. And whether that's via direct-to-consumer sales, whether that's via small footprint retail, whether that's by a more immersive digital experiences,

NFTs, things of that sort. They've found a way to sort of coexist where those brands still sell through Amazon for the most part because it's hard to turn down that massive pool of customers that they have. But they've also done a great job of taking their, the best brands, have done a great job of taking their super fans, these people that absolutely love them that would buy anything from them, and turning them into direct customers where they can create more curated and beautiful, amazing experiences with them.

I'm thinking of that as the likely outcome for where the music space heads, which is Spotify continues to exist because it will still have access to this massive pool of customers and massive pool of listeners. But there will be more and more new platforms, new companies, new infrastructure rails that enable artists to engage in immersive experiences and deeper experiences with their listeners. What do you think of that? I mean, it's wild that is 2022, and the only way I could engage with the artist I love is buying tickets to a physical event, buying a t-shirt or listening to the music where they don't get paid that much. Like, there's just, music is such an, you know, huge part of so many of our lives that, like, we are looking for ways to, you know, it's a lifestyle, right? Like, it's literally a lifestyle. Some, you know, think of like, you know, fish. We've talked about fish, the band.

You know, that is literally a lifestyle. And I think that what does the future of music look like? I think like it looks a lot more like fish than it does how it is today. And I think there's new ways to give people ownership in the upside of some of these artists. I think there's more intimate spaces for them to coordinate and have fun and do things together. You know, and I think that Spotify is going to look just very like, you know, in five years from now, we're going to look at Spotify and just be like, I can't even believe that all you can do is like press a button and listen to it. Yeah. It's kind of an interesting, I completely agree with you.

It's sort of an interesting example of why I think, and I think you would agree with me, Web 2 and Web 3 is actually not the dichotomy that some people want to paint. It's actually that the two will continue to coexist and that the rise of any Web 3 platforms, businesses, companies actually does not imply the demise of the Web 2 versions or the Web 2 ecosystem around that same space. And I think that in the case of music, that's likely the outcome is that the Web 2, Spotify, will continue to exist and thrive within certain sub-segments, but that the Web 3 alternatives and Web 3 platforms that rise within the music space will rise and coexist alongside and probably in some sort of violent synergistic environment, actually, in the same way that

these new direct-to-consumerative experiences have risen alongside the Amazon of the world. So that's where my head is at personally. I mean, I agree, man. I agree. I think if you're, it feels very much like, you know, the last 10 years, if you were a creator, it just became more easy and easy to monetize. And there's just been a lot of opportunities for creators. The same thing is going to happen with music. There's going to be more and more opportunities to monetize.

And I'm not saying that Spotify, like there's going to be this like Web 3 version of Spotify that's going to come out. I don't think that's the case. I think that like the future of the consumption experience and the future of the creator and or the musician and, you know, publisher relationship is going to change. And some of it is going to, you know, borrow elements of Web 3 and some of it's going to borrow elements from Web 2. and it's going to be this beautiful podge-podge. Because one thing's for certain is that I think you and I know and everyone knows, everyone knows that like, you know, the music industry in lots of ways is broken. And there's plenty of ways to, there's plenty of obvious ways to fix it.

Yeah. Well, I know we're up against time. This was fucking awesome, by the way. I enjoyed doing this mailbag. We should start doing this more frequently. I feel like every week we end up talking about a bunch of this stuff offline, and we should take it online because it's a lot of fun. We can get in some cool guests to jam on the different things that are very topical and happening in tech or business or whatever the space is. I think it'll be a blast to do.

I'm also now two and a half whiskeys deep, and so I feel like it's probably time for me to sign off before I say stupid. Or time for a threat, two and a half whiskeys deep. Sunday nights. Honestly, I had a bunch of whiskey companies reach out to me wanting to sponsor. are two whiskeys deep threads. I wonder how many bottles of this Kentucky out, because I took a picture of it at the end of the thread and shared it as what I was drinking.

I wonder how many bottles of it I sold. Because they're pretty expensive bottles. I wonder if I sold like a chunk of, I mean, two whiskeys deep has like a pretty good ring to it too. Like you should register that. It could be a podcast. Register. Register that domain if you haven't already.

Two whiskeys deep. I feel like. Yeah, I feel like I actually should. I hadn't thought about it until just now. I'm looking at the numbers on that tweet. Like I took a picture of the bottle of this Kentucky owl rye that I showed you earlier, which is absolutely fucking delicious, by the way. And I don't condone drinking underage or, like, in excess, by the way.

I'm at home. I'm not driving anywhere. But it's fucking delicious. And that tweet at the very end of the thread had five retweets and 329 likes. it did, pulling up the numbers, 77,253 impressions. That has to be worth a decent amount to the brand.

Oh, yeah. That's huge. I mean, dude, that's huge. Like, I mean, seven, I don't know what it costs. I don't know advertising well enough, but that number of impressions has to be a chunk of change. I mean, I love it.

I think, you know. I'm going to pull up two whiskeys, deep. Should I do the number? There's also the question of, there's also the question of do you do, Two Whiskeysdeep.com is available. Free. I mean, I can basically get in right now. For the price of less than a whiskey, you can get the domains. You might as well. Ah, man. Interesting. This is interesting. I might have to do this. Next time you see me, I might be the proud owner of Two Whiskeysdeep.com. Hopefully someone doesn't beat me to the pun. By the way, there's a, there's a newsletter that I subscribe to, and my friend Phil Toronto, he got me onto it.

It's called ungrabbed.com. Have you heard about this? Basically, they send you an email. This isn't sponsored or anything. I just like like it, and I always open it. It's two curated domains sent your inbox daily. So they go and, like, buy domains. that like sound good and for like between you know 90 and 200 bucks or basically like not expensive so like I just bought um you know colored pencil or what was it no pencil pencil pencil case. And and I just like I don't know. I mean maybe in a are domains an asset class that we should be trading like can you make money? Is there a liquid? platform for asset, like for domain names.

Like people that squat on domains, is there an actual liquid platform that exists to trade those domains and make money off of them? There's marketplaces. So like GoDaddy, et cetera, have marketplaces where you can list it and sell it. Does it feel like super old school and like very like eBay-esque?

Yeah. Is there an opportunity to build like the micro acquire, but for domains 100%. Yeah. seems like a cool opportunity. I kind of want to poke around on that. We should come back and I want to talk about that more on the next one. I want to poke around a little bit on that because I've seen all these people squatting on domains or squatting on ENS and it seems like there's an opportunity around that. Yeah, okay. Let's talk about it next time. I got to run. All right. Yeah, me too.

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