The Team House - Did We Kill the Iranian Nuke Program or Not? | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

Episode Date: June 26, 2025

In this episode of "Eyes on Geopolitics," I join co-host Andy Milburn to discuss the recent U.S. bombing of Iran's nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. We delve into the efficacy of the strikes, particularly concerning the depth of Iran's centrifuges and the capabilities of the GBU-57 bunker buster bombs. Our conversation also explores the DIA assessment, which was leaked and reported on by CNN, suggesting the program was set back only by months, as well as the geopolitical implications for U.S.-Israel-Iran relations, potential Iranian blowback, the internal dynamics of the Iranian regime, and the future of nuclear negotiations.Support the show on Patreon:⬇️https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouseNew merch, patches, and stickers! ⬇️https://theteamhouse-shop.fourthwall.comFind Mick Mulroy here: Fogbow ⬇️https://fogbow.com/Lobo Institute ⬇️https://www.loboinstitute.org/Twitter ⬇️https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCALinkedIn ⬇️https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/Bluesky ⬇️https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.socialMick’s publications ⬇️https://www.loboinstitute.org/publications/publications-of-michael-mick-patrick-mulroy/Find Andy Milburn here: Twitter ⬇️https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8LinkedIn ⬇️https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023Substack ⬇️https://amilburn.substack.com/Andy’s book ⬇️https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-OperationsBluesky ⬇️https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.socialFind Jason Lyons here: LinkedIn ⬇️https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=ios_appBluesky ⬇️https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social00:00 Start & U.S. Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Sites02:26 DIA Assessment on Program Setback03:20 GBU-57 Effectiveness & Centrifuge Depth7:08: Geopolitical Timing & Strike Implications13:11 Potential Iranian Blowback22:37  Iranian Regime's Domestic Issues32:13  Future of Nuclear NegotiationsBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support.

The question is, are the Iranians going to use this, right? Are they going to weaponize and use it against us? And who knows? I mean, there's speculation. But think about this. That's a finite amount of uranium. It's a fair amount of uranium, but it's a finite amount anyway. Right.

At this stage, especially when you are operating against two nuclear nations, it would be near suicidal to load up a finite number of weapons with your remaining. Yeah. Enriched uranium and conduct strikes. Mm-hmm. The Iranians are not suicidal. In fact, they are, among all our enemies, possibly the most rational of actors. I mean, bar the Chinese, of course.

I mean, but they're very, you know, they haven't stayed in power this long through doing purely crazy shit. Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Aizontrio Politics, a special one, because we missed them so much. Andy Milburn's here. The man, the myth, the legend. I wanted to get his take on what went down over the weekend with, you know, the United States bombing the nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Obviously, you guys know what went down, B2 bombers, 14 GBUs, you know, the big boy bunker busters, and 30 tomahawks from a submarine.

Andy, what's going on? How are you? Hey, Dee. Well, first of all, great to be back. And I'm sorry that my compadres are not here, too, because I think it puts under pressure on the audience just to have me here, waxing lyrical. But on the other hand, I'm happy to do so. And just a couple of preliminary comments. I was caught unawares by the strike. No one gave me a heads up. And actually, I was mid-flight between Tampa and Reh. and spent a delightful 24 hours in Istanbul as air traffic controllers decided, or rather the powers that be decided which flights to cancel,

which airspace was going to remain open. And so I got into Read early hours of yesterday morning and promptly had to go to work, which has made my week so far delightful. And by the way, you mentioned Isfahan, And I do not totally arbitrarily want to say that there brings back memories myself. I was oddly enough, and I may be certainly in a minority here among former US veterans, but I have spent time in Isfahan, and I happen to have spent time in Isfahan during a missile attack, then in this case by the Iraqis, which tells you how long ago it was,

1988 during the war of the cities. Wow. It's a beautiful, yeah, beautiful city. Absolutely lovely, which is not making any comments about the strikes themselves, which I know we're going to talk about. So what questions you have, do you want me to just to launch in? I think the biggest thing, I think, obviously the ceasefire, right, whether it holds or not, but I guess we could talk about that after.

Because the big news that trumped that, for lack of a better word, was the DIA assessment that got leaked and reported on by CNN that stated that the Iran's nuclear program has basically set back a few to several months. I think that was the wording. Yeah. Yeah. So, and to just by way of expectation management, I don't have any insights. And certainly if I did have insights, I mean, I do have insights. I mean, I do have insights. sites. Of course I do. What I mean is I don't have any access information. If I did, of course, I couldn't share it here. But you will notice that there are many views on this particular topic. And so I will simply express an opinion. Before the strike even took place,

US intelligence, former intelligence officials opined that the most that even the US could do with the GBU 57, which is the massive ordinance penetrator, which is a, actually will be dropped. The most that we could do was set the program back. I think you probably remember those comments. In fact, you've had guests on their former agency guys who said the same thing. Well, that seems likely to be the case for a number of reasons. One is that when some of the the planning of a decade or so ago when the first topic of striking, the first time that the topic of striking Iran's nuclear facilities came up, it was possible that the centrifuges were within range,

or it was judged that these centrifuges were within range at the GB-57. But since then, and as you can imagine, the Iranians have done, deeper literally all right and so experts opine now open source that while the the limited penetration limit of the of the massive ordinance penetrated the GPU 57 drop by itself admittedly is 65 meters right and they estimate that the centrifuges and for Dowell for example are at least 95 to 100 meters deep which means that they're about 30 meters on the outside. Okay.

Now there's a couple of ways to mitigate that. One is to drop two of these bombs almost at once. I mean, one right after the other, so that one penetrates into the creative form by the other. And that seems to have been the tactic here. By the way, the B2 is the only aircraft that can carry these things. I mean, they're 30,000 pounds apiece. So you imagine a B2 carrying two,

that's 60,000 pounds. Amazing, you know, 15 tons of explosive. Yeah, wild. I think they said it's like 2,000 pounds of tungsten at the top of the word. Yeah, which, you know, which adds to its penetration capability. So, you know, hard to say. I mean, if things had gone exactly according to plan and one had been dropped on top of the other in in each case, I think 14, yeah, 14 bombs were dropped by 7B2s, then, although not on Ferdell.

I think all 12 out of the 14 were on Ford O. Oh, 12 out of 14? Okay. In any case, yes. It's hard to say conclusively whether that plan should have worked, right? But it's certainly believable, credible that they didn't quite reach their centrifuges themselves. I don't know if the DIA leaked report what it's based on, but I assume it's based on more than speculation, right? I assume it's based on some kind of battle damage assessment.

But let me just say absolutely credible that we've set the Iranians back months but haven't destroyed the nuclear site completely. And I can't explain why the Israelis have come out with a different estimate. They just did, yeah. Yeah, you know, they were a little more optimistic. And I don't, you know, who knows what the truth is or whether we will find out in the near future, of course. The, you know, the timing, the timing was as perfect as we can expect to get it, except

that this didn't happen five to ten years ago before the sites had been buried deep yet. And by that mean, as perfect as we can expect it, and I'm sure that Mark and Mick have already commented on this. You know, we've always, there's been three things holding us back from striking nuclear, Iran's nuclear facilities before. One is essentially for fear of repercussions, not fear, but for concern of repercussions from Iran's, proxies, Hezbollah, but more notably the Shia militia in Iran. And of that risk, I mean,

that hasn't, I wouldn't say that stopped us alone, but it was certainly, it was certainly something that we took in consideration. Of course, the Iranian proxies are now on the ropes for the time being. So the timing was good from that perspective. Secondly, of course, you know, you always run a risk when you penetrate an enemy's integrated air defense systems. You run a risk of being shot down. And in this case, the Israelis have, you know, they cleared the way for us. And the third part of this was, yes, we were concerned about the depth to which the centrifuges had been sunk and how much damage we could actually do.

well, I don't know the details on this, but apparently the Israelis had already created the sites, which presumably meant that the bombs that we dropped had less distance to penetrate. I don't know. I can't say conclusively again whether that part is correct or not. And it was also well-timed in a sense from the point of view that it seemed like as though negotiations were going nowhere. I mean, let's be honest, it's taken two decades of both negotiating and planning and threatening to bring us to this point. If the Iranians have lost their ability to generate nuclear weapons, I think that's a good thing for the region. You know, they have the ways that, the way that they threaten the region up to this point is through a massive array of ballistic.

missiles. Oh, that was the other reason too, right? We were concerned potentially about missile strikes on allied countries or even U.S. bases, missile and drone strikes. And yet their inventory has been drastically reduced. There hasn't been obliterated entirely, but it has been reduced by the Israeli strikes. So the timing was propitious. But, you know, again, we're dealing with a a physics problem and it's hard to say whether how successful we were time will tell yeah yeah and what you mentioned with the Israelis coming out saying that it's set it back many years that's from the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission through the Prime Minister's office to talk a little bit about like the geopolitical angle of this because the

DIA assessment early assessment came out yesterday and you need to get it I can cut this. Yeah, I'll step in, no show. Okay, go ahead. I'm listening. So the DIA assessment, the early assessment that came out yesterday that Trump's been refuting pretty, pretty hard, pretty viscerly, I'd say, pretty adamantly, says that it came back only a few months, obviously compared to the Israeli one.

It's like, is this Israel trying to, like, placate Trump to try and just to be like, hey, yeah, no, we did this, and it worked. and, you know, the region's better for it because I do think it sets, well, starting from last year, bombing Iran, sets like a pretty dangerous precedent like where Israel could just like pick up

and bomb them whenever they feel like it. Yeah, hard to say. I mean, certainly Netanyahu was urging Trump to do this, but I like to think that the United States did this for our own reasons because it was in our own national interests. And again, you know, I don't think, anyone can get sentimental about Iran losing its ability to generate nuclear weapons and has proven itself to be a difficult actor to say the least in the region. But at the same time, yes,

and we want to avoid for our own interests, and this is me speaking, obviously not speaking for the administration, but we want to avoid being closely aligned to Israel. You know, here I am in Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia is an ally of ours too. There is a great deal of sensitivity about how closely, from the Arab world here, how closely the United States is aligning itself with the Israeli policy. I think we have to be wary of that, and we have to be our own actors if we are to maintain credibility in the region. And by the way, whether we like it or not, you know, the strike did help bolster U.S.

credibility in the region. You know, we actually followed through and did something. We did something that was, you know, outside Iran and outside Iran's proxies is widely regarded in the Middle East to include among Gulf states and Saudi Arabia as being generally a good thing. Yeah. In terms of blowback, do you think at some point, I know there's obviously a ceasefire right now, but Iran's got to be thinking about doing something, right? I mean, I can't really see them just cowering and just be like, okay, we'll give up everything, you know, we need to give up and you guys want our ballistic missiles too. We can, you know, all terms, all types of like actual self-defense, too, not just a nuclear program. Obviously, the nuclear program's no

bueno, but what do you think the blowback looks like? Yeah, that's a great question. And I don't know. I do know that The regime must right now be feeling quite desperate. Now, they're not, let me rephrase that, okay. But they, I mean, they have, they're certainly on the ropes. They certainly at a severe disadvantage. They haven't lost all of their ability to cause harm. And they still have a significant missile inventory.

And Hezbollah, it's a matter of time before Hezbollah and even Hamas are back on their again. You know, I mean, the amount of anger that has been generated in the last two years by Israeli actions, for instance, in the Middle East, is, you know, it's not going to die away, all right? And there's going to be, certainly there's going to be a resurgence of these two groups. They're not down and out. But it's going to be a while before Iran can really flex its muscles again, if, you know, if it can in the near future. So that's a long way. winded way of saying that I don't know, but I just want to remind listeners again of the Vincennes incident, which is back in 1989 when the USS Vincennes mistakenly shot down an Iranian

airbus with some 250 civilian passengers on board. And almost a decade later, the Iranians, one assumes planted a bomb in the van of the skipper of the Vincennes, the skipper at the time in San Diego, he turned out he didn't get in the vehicle as his wife and she was severely injured. But I think, you know, it's just an example of how the Iranians are willing to play or perhaps that's the only game they can play sometimes is the long game to exact vengeance. But I don't, you know, to them, Israel. is the big enemy. It doesn't mean that we have, we're Lily White as far as they're concerned. We did just strike their nuclear facilities. But I don't think striking back in the United States

is going to be a top priority. The missile attack on Al-Aid was a pro forma act done, as I think we all know for the sake of saving face. They gave Qatar a heads up that it was going to happen. Only 15, missiles were fired and they were fired in a half-hearted type attempt, right? It wasn't really a serious attempt. It was just look, okay, now we're going to sit back. It was for domestic consumption. And, you know, the Iranian media, state-owned media, of course, the trumpeting that we inflicted or that we suffered casualties, et cetera, et cetera. But everyone knows that what didn't happen. Now, if they really wanted to strike back at us, they would have gone after our bases in Iraq. using Shia militia, drones, which they've done before to greater effect, or Syria.

And by the way, bases in Iraq and Syria are not protected by Patriot missile batteries, the one in Al-Did is. So it was kind of a, it was a safe way to be seen to exact vengeance and look good. Let me ask, why aren't those other bases in Iraq and Syria not protected by Patriot batteries? Yeah, great question. Well, there's only limited number of Patriot batteries to go around, right? And now they may have, you know, I may, my information may now be outdated, but that was certainly the case, you know, a few months ago. Yeah.

And in any case, you know, even protected by Patriot batteries is not, when it comes to, you know, when it comes to. the short-range air defense, patriots only do a certain amount of good, and they are not good at blocking drones or short-range, other short-range missiles. And that's the threat, really, in both Syria and in Iraq, drones and other shorter-range missiles fired by local militias. Yeah. That's not so much militia, but Iraq certainly. Also another bit of the from the assessment, and even before the early assessment got released yesterday, about the 400 kilograms of enriched uranium. Like, supposedly we don't know where that is.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I know there's a great deal of angst about that, and it's, I would say this, okay, I think it's the right thing to do to give them a heads up. Okay, that kind of keeps things again on this. not a gentleman's playing. That's not what I'm trying to say. What I'm trying to say is that, hey, we're the United States saying we live by values.

We will save lives where we can. But on the other hand, we are going to take out your nuclear program. The downside was 400 kilograms of them. Apparently, we don't know for sure, but 400 kilograms of enriched uranium escaped. Well, the question is, are the Iranians going to use this, right? Are they going to weaponize and use it against us? And who knows? I mean, there's speculation.

But think about this. That's a finite amount of uranium. It's a fair amount of enriched uranium, but it's a finite amount anyway. At this stage, especially when you are operating against two nuclear nations, it would be near suicidal to load up a finite number of weapons with your remaining enriched uranium and conduct strikes. and the Iranians are not suicidal. In fact, they are among all our enemies, possibly the most rational of actors. I mean, bar the Chinese, of course.

I mean, but they're very, you know, they haven't stayed in power this long through doing purely crazy shit. So what I meant by like not strapping like 60% of rich uranium to like ballistic missiles and shooting them into Tel Aviv, but I meant like, you know bringing them to you know one of their shadow sites or they there is some reporting that isfahan is deeper than fortow where their centerfuges are um so like bringing it's right bringing it there and like uh enriching it and continuing their program yeah yeah yeah i think that's always a risk and you know we know are those three sites right uh but there are there's now

reports that the program may be more distributed than we thought that there are more than those three sides so you know the potential risks multiply we did we did what we could with the intelligence that we had at the time but the time marches on and the Iranians as I said are they're you know they they're pretty smart yeah people I again the regime stayed in power this long and I'm sure they haven't planted all their eggs into just three baskets. So, yeah, I think we can, we can go down paths that lead us to many risky scenarios that are resulted from the strike. But nevertheless, I still, you know, I believe it was a, it was a good thing, even if we just set back, set the

program back, because it sent a very powerful message that we are serious about doing this. Yeah. Barakravid, the Axios. not the unit 8200 news reporter i mean the axios reporter wrote just recently israel israeli official with direct knowledge says that intercepted comm suggests Iranian military officials are lying to their political leadership about the extent of the damage at the nuclear sites oh right lying as far as it's worse than they're saying right yeah yeah yeah again who knows multiple reports right but that also came out like literally

minutes after the Israel Atomic Energy Commission came out and said that it's going to take many years for them to come back. So, I mean, I'm sure there's a PR PR aspect to all this and like, you know, who's winning the spin game?

Because you see any of what's going on there? You know, they're touting it as like the victory over Israel Day there, right? Like they had like a whole rally and stuff. So... Well, think about the problems that the Iranian regime is having with its domestic audience. You know, we've talked about this, that even in its pro forma elections, it is losing,

has lost ground in the last few years, or the electorate has simply not bothered to show up. And there have been, you know, there is a significant opposition group within Iran, and they're fed up with the economy being in the toilet. They're fed up with the IRGC's adventurism overseas, which is costing the state in financial terms and in terms of being a political pariah and has done since the birth of the Islamic Republic. And remember, too, that Iran has a highly educated middle class.

I wouldn't say unusual, but it's in a minority among Middle Eastern countries to have such an advanced middle class. And, you know, they're not, they've got to be careful how they exhibit their opposition to the regime because, of course, we've seen how the administration exerts crackdowns. But, on the other hand, it's real, and the Iranian regime is concerned about it. You know, you've probably heard anecdotal reports or even seen YouTube videos about locals, sharing even the Israeli strikes in military facilities.

The discontent is real, and the administration is concerned about that. So they're not just looking at what they're going to do as far as taking on their geopolitical opponents. They're also wary about how they appear to the domestic audience right now. Yeah, and they are. Domestic audience does not appear to one. more even now yeah uh you could say that too about the united states domestic audience as well right like uh well yeah 60 percent opposed only 16 percent were for right us taking action against iran until we did take action and then i believe the numbers so much higher yeah never realized oh

that was it yeah well i mean hopefully that's it right uh yeah um there was one more piece I wanted to talk to you about, I'm just looking over Twitter to see if something popped off. Hexeth just announced about an hour ago that they're going to task the FBI to investigate the leak of the DIA assessment. It seems like there is a bit of a back and forth kind of going on in the annals of government where, you know, people aren't exactly willing to just, go by whatever sounds the best, right? Because if I had a bet money, I would bet that it's closer of a few months rather than a few years

where this nuclear program is set back. And I just don't know what the end game looks like. Is it just like every time we feel like it or Israel feels like it, we can hit Iran and, and, no, I mean, in Phenness, I think, you know, this was two decades in coming, D.

I think, I mean, generations of US planners have have planned this particular strike. Yeah. And it was conducted in a very sophisticated way. I think it was in that sense a one-off. And the timing was absolutely right. I don't know what the motivation is for leaking that report. It's kind of interesting.

And I don't know even if it was deliberately leaked, I assume, of course it was. And I find it. it highly unusual that there have been so many leaks of secret and top secret information from U.S. from DOD in the last, you know, the last few months, the last five months. It's certainly, it's a strange trend. I mean, it's, to say it's unusual is, is an exaggeration. I mean, you don't really see that. Yeah. And normally within DOD. Oh, and going back, I remember what I wanted to tell you.

Like, there have been reports of, like, the regime in Iran rounding up, like, 700 or so suspected Israeli agents, people that, I guess, help facilitate stuff for the, for Mossad and Israel. So, yeah, it does seem like they're very much cracking down. Also, last week I had a former Marine. I keep having Marines on this goddamn show. I got to mix it up. John Hackett, who is, yeah. Yeah. No, that's, it's another John Hackett.

Actually, yeah. And he said he's like they had a protest literally like once the bombing started. Like there was a protest, anti-regime protest. They started fucking snatching them up. And he haven't heard from them since literally within a day. While they're getting bombed, they were snatching up people who were like anti-regime sentiment. So again, like, you know, this Iranian regime isn't exactly, you know, fucking, you know, mellows and gumdrops.

There aren't exactly great people. I mean, the Iranian regime has kept people in line through executions and torture and mass incarceration since its birth. I mean, let's not sidestep this issue. It's a highly disruptive, bad influence throughout the Middle East, malign. and has been, and despite every attempt to alter its course, external attempt to alter its course, it has kept that course and has pursued a policy of a military adventurism overseas

at a great cost to regional stability. I mean, anyone who starts to get mushy-eyed about Iran just needs to look at the fact that the Iranians, you know, and of course the Russians subsequently extended and exacerbated the war in Syria, which you know, has seen

half a million deaths and a million and a half refugees. I mean, more than that, actually a million and a half external refugees. I mean, just incredible suffering over the course of the last 14 years. That was Iran's

playground. That was Hezbollah. playground, as you know. The interesting thing to see is, like, how Hezbollah hasn't really done anything. I know they're in a bad way, obviously. Yeah. But I'm pretty sure they still have some of their rockets intact, right? And they're very close to Israel. And it's interesting how they kind of not done much.

Well, I mean, they're probably having, I would guess it's not just by the rockets, but commanding control problems, succession of leadership problems, whatever, who knows, I mean, the Iranians never had kind of carte blanche, do it, don't do it, authority over Hezbollah. Nazrallah was his own man, and we don't know how Isbola has emerged from that, how it is now, but it's certainly probably not the right time viewed by most Hezbollah, surviving Hasbola leaders to pop its head above the parapet again. Yeah, I could totally see there being a huge power vacuum there right now, right?

Like people jostling for control or maybe not because like your number one target list. Yeah, hard to tell. I mean, they had, Hasbola had a pretty, a pretty well-designed succession of command. You know, I mean, you remember we used to say, oh, I used to say, that in my mind. Among all decapitation strikes, the one was likely to really have some lasting effect, was if Nasrallah was taken out because he was. He embodied Hezbollah in a way that few other leaders embodied their organization. And he was, you know, say what you like, but yes, a bad actor,

but he was a highly talented, charismatic bad actor who wielded extraordinary influence, not just within his organization, but throughout Lebanese politics. and indeed throughout kind of the militant politics of the region. Yeah. He was an icon. And so losing him undoubtedly put, no one really thought that he would be lost. But losing him undoubtedly has put his bowler on the ropes for a while. And that is probably why you're not seeing any coherent decision-making coming out of the organization,

at least for the time being. Yeah. Well, Andy, I mean, I'm trying to think I think I'm good. I think I have enough all that I need. Well, I hope so. I'm looking forward to reappearing with everyone else. Me too, I can't wait. What do you think?

Do you think Iran comes back to the nuclear negotiation table? I mean, the question is, do the nuclear negotiations go on? I mean, what are we negotiating about or for anymore? That's really the issue. And honestly, it was kind of a half-hearted approach by both sides. sides, right? So I don't see there being more nuclear negotiations anytime soon, certainly or not under this administration. Andy Milburn, everybody. Check them out. The links are into the description. Grab his book

When the Tempest gathers. Excellent memoir. When's a new book coming out? Oh, yeah. Hopefully my publisher's not watching right now, but he's just giving me an extension to the end of the month. So it'll be coming out before the end of the year. All right, great. All right. It's awesome. So we'll keep you. Keep an eye out for that. Guys, help support the show Patreon.com slash the team house. You get both eyes on geopolitics and the team house completely ad-free. And a lot more perks that go with it.

Of course, remember, check out Andy. His links are in the description. Andy's got a substack too. It's good. And yeah, thanks, Andy. This is awesome. As usual. Yeah, all the best, everyone.

See you again in a few days. Thanks, Dean. Thank you. Hey guys, it's Jack. I just want to talk to you for a moment about how you can support the show if you've been watching it, enjoying it, but you'd like to get a little bit more involved and help us continue to do this. You can check out our Patreon. It is patreon.com slash the team house. And for $5 a month, you can get access to all of these episodes of the team house ad free. The same goes with our affiliated podcast, Eyes On, with Andy Milburn, Jason Lyons, Mick Mulroy.

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