The Team House - Does the U.S. Jump Into War? | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

Episode Date: June 20, 2025

In this conversation, Dee and Jonathan W. Hackett discuss the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, the implications of U.S. military involvement, and the historical context of these geopolitical dynamics. They explore the potential outcomes of military action, the role of media in shaping public perception, and the human cost of war. The discussion emphasizes the need for a thoughtful approach to foreign policy that considers the long-term consequences of intervention in the region.Find Jon here:https://jonathanwhackett.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackettJon's Books :https://www.amazon.com/Irans-Shadow-Weapons-Intelligence-Unconventional/dp/1476696934/https://www.amazon.com/Theory-Irregular-War-Jonathan-Hackett/dp/1476689059/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Support the show on Patreon:⬇️https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouseNew merch, patches, and stickers! ⬇️https://theteamhouse-shop.fourthwall.comFind Mick Mulroy here: Fogbow ⬇️https://fogbow.com/Lobo Institute ⬇️https://www.loboinstitute.org/Twitter ⬇️https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCALinkedIn ⬇️https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/Bluesky ⬇️https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.socialMick’s publications ⬇️https://www.loboinstitute.org/publications/publications-of-michael-mick-patrick-mulroy/Find Andy Milburn here: Twitter ⬇️https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8LinkedIn ⬇️https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023Substack ⬇️https://amilburn.substack.com/Andy’s book ⬇️https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-OperationsBluesky ⬇️https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.socialFind Jason Lyons here: LinkedIn ⬇️https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=ios_appBluesky ⬇️https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social00:00 Introduction 01:42 Escalation in the Middle East06:26 Historical Context of U.S.-Iran Relations10:22 The Dynamics of Resistance in Iran12:38 Potential Outcomes of Conflict20:12 The Role of Foreign Intervention26:15 Future Relations with Iran27:57 Navigating Complex Geopolitics29:42 The Human Cost of Conflict32:09 The Cycle of Violence and Resistance36:36 The Consequences of Short-Sighted Policies40:27 The Role of Leadership in Global Affairs44:52 The Future of Iran and Regional StabilityBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support.

I would be more concerned about how the U.S. gets further pulled into the conflict than about specifically what Iran does in reaction to it. Because the regime is very weak. It has been weak. Even before this, it's been weakened for years. So their ability to actually conduct an offense against the United States pretty low, even against like Bahrain, where we have Fifth Fleet, or in Qatar, where we have the Air Force or, you know, absent, it would be very tough for them to kind of have a sustained campaign against those. They only have 2,000 missiles. So they've already fired about 30 to 50% of them. So, I mean, you got a swan song there at the end where they can launch the rest. But then what, right?

But I'd be more concerned about, okay, the U.S. goes in there, kind of like Operation Anaconda in Afghanistan. We went in there and we executed a flawless invasion, did what we wanted to do in a few weeks, and then we stayed for 20 years. And that's more concerning to me because that is more likely because it's easy for us to get wrapped up, you know, bit by bit by bit, pulled into this thing. And now you're in a position that you can't get out of. Hey, everybody.

Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. a special one today with Jonathan Hackett. John did a great, great interview on the team house where we talked a bit, not a bit, a good amount about his career in the Marines, Marsock. I mean, he definitely did have a very interesting career, dude. Like, you know, he worked at the NSA, DIA, like, it doesn't seem like a prototypical enlisted Marines career, I would say. Definitely, definitely. So, yeah, I definitely, I'm recommending everybody go check that out.

I'll put the link in the description too for that, for that episode, for your books, too. All the links will be in the description. If you want to find Jonathan, the links are in the description. Do not ask me, please. It's in the description because people like to ask, even though I put all the links in the description. Today's going to be a little bit different. We're going to talk more about what's going on, obviously, in the world. A lot cooking, as usual.

It's been about a week, I would say about a week, right, since Israel started bombing Iran. in Iran's nuclear facilities. They're nuclear scientists. They're IRGC guys. And shockingly, which I'm saying that sarcastically, they're trying to bring us into it. I think we've all seen like the buildup of our own, you know, a ton of tankers heading towards the Middle East, F-22s, you know, landing in the UK, I think, getting ready to go to the Middle East, the Nimitz, like carrier.

Like we're stacking up a ton of equipment. in and around that area. Give me your, like, what you're thinking and what you're tracking. Well, a really interesting indicator of what's going on on the U.S. side is pizza sales in D.C. If you look at pizza sales outside of the Pentagon, they're like five times higher than usual, even at meal time, which is very similar to 1991, 1990, when we're doing more plans for the aerial campaign in Iraq for the first Gulf War. there was a similar pizza drive that actually people did a lot of analysis on and saw, you know,

there's more going on than usual, more than the regular just advising the president on options. There's an NSC meeting this afternoon where they're going to probably present him with a menu of options, but I would imagine that it's not just options they're presenting. They've already got packages in place that once he chooses one of those options, if he does, it would be ready to launch instantly. even Netanyahu said, you know, he made some light of it on, I think it was Twitter, about the Iranians will see something amazing this weekend, you know, and kind of like bringing that up. So whether it's Israel doing something or the U.S. doing something, whether that's Khomeini being assassinated or us using GB-57 on Fordow, maybe something, maybe a third thing that we are just not aware of could happen. my thought is what if Khomeini is not even in Iran what if he's in Russia right now protected and how does that change Israel's calculus on that threat because without consummating the threat it's kind of meaningless especially if they're waving it about the way that they are today on the media yeah I mean it was super interesting the last couple of days super interesting and also scary and frustrating because you did see Netanyahu going around doing the

rounds on like American media like he was on Fox News of Brett bear and it was like a la fucking two when we're like gearing up for Iraq and um you know even in BB's uh speech right after they started hitting it Iran it was they're a year away like we've heard it year away year away for so long and I understand they've enriched a certain amount and they need to weaponize it and that takes time but again it wasn't like they have three or four nuke sitting around pointed at Israel on one of those ballistic missiles, right? It's extremely frustrating, especially I'm going to editorialize a little bit because I don't give a shit really. Seeing a lot of like the talking heads out there on Twitter and stuff like that and like guys who have been in Iraq, been in Afghanistan, seen like seen war firsthand, seen the mistakes we've made and stuff like that where they're just like beating the drums.

It's not just like the Lindsey Graham's, you know, who's a fucking ghoul, let's be honest. or like Federman who are like pro pro Israel and like yeah let's do it it's you know those guys I understand because they've probably never been outside of like an air conditioned room

but like the natural security analyst guys who have been there and have seen it and they're like they know better are like kind of cheering this on and it's unreal to me it's like have we not learned anything over the last 20 years

it's pretty similar though to the Gulf War, the first one, because you had a lot of Vietnam vets that were generals at that time. Even in the first Iraq war, you still had some holdovers from that period, especially from the 80s, when special operations became a doctrinal thing. A lot of people died in those conflicts, and yet those people were the loudest saber rattlers trying to get us in immediately, you know, like in the president's ear saying, like, no, we've got to go right now. And if you go back to the 90s, when Netanyahu first became powerful, essentially, especially the mid-90s, his advisors basically came to him with a paper called the Clean Break Memo

that talked about overthrowing three countries in the Middle East. First, Iraq, second, Syria, and third, Iran. And if you look at today, they've been working on that. Ever since then, in 2003, the Mossad actually changed their number one priority targets from Palestinian-focused targets, like the PFLP and the PLO, to Iran, number one, number two, Hezbollah, and number three, Hamas. And that was a clear shift that Netanyahu actually pushed toward that goal. And as you saw the year after that, we invaded Iraq. We overthrew Iraq as they told us to. And then we've been working against the Syrian government ever since then.

Even though Syria helped us in the very beginning of the war, they gave us intel. They gave us satellite imagery. They told us where guys were at in Syria. We brushed that aside. And ever since then, we did covert action in Syria under Timber Sycamore, where we tried to overthrow the government. And eventually it actually succeeded last December. You have a checkmark number two. And then you've got the final check mark, which is the most difficult piece for them, for Israel to move.

And that is Iran. And it's happening right now. Yeah, it's incredible when you lay it out like that. You know, it's taken 30 years or more, but it's almost there. I mean, also a bit of like the wishful thinking you see from, you know, because I'm not, I'm a dumb civilian, right? But I've talked to enough, like, salty, C. CIA guys, especially CIA guys who were like involved or working while Iraq was building up, where they talk about it, like where the wishful thinking is where you get in trouble, right?

Totally. And I see a lot of that, like talking about regime change. Like are people protesting in the streets really? I mean, obviously not because they're getting bombed. But- Well, actually, interesting you say that they just executed some protesters that were protesting two days ago. They captured them the same day and killed them the same day. So they are violently tapping down any resistance in the country.

The strongest resistance of the regime that exists is the Mujahideenikha, Mek, which was also an enemy of the Shah back in the 70s. They had a mutual understanding with the regime in the first couple of years after the revolution. And then the regime executed 3,000 plus prisoners of the MECA prisoners, essentially in 1980s, late 80s. Ibrahim Raiisi was named the Hanging Judge back then, and became president later and then died in a helicopter. but that is the largest resistance group. Believe me, you do not want that group leading Iran. It's a quasi-Marxist cult, essentially, that's based out of Albania. Israel, Mossad has been working with them.

That is their number one group they work with outside of Iraq and Iran to actually get stuff in. Like, when you see all this stuff smuggled into Iran, most of the time, it's Mujahideenik moving it in, not Mossad. It's Mossad running agents. Those agents are Iranian, and they're moving stuff in. But the way Israel advertises it to kind of like upsell their footprint, like, oh, we got inside Iran. It's like, right. You had guys recruited that did that.

Guys that are not the right people you want leading 90 million people, which Ted Cruz can't even name the number of inside the country. Yeah, that clip is going. Yeah, it's crazy. I mean, yeah, it's actually, I really appreciate bringing that up, right? Because we really have a really, I mean, general public laymen like myself. don't really know like yeah what's the resistance in iran look like um and like you said like i'm not surprised that they're not going to come in and be like this liberal democracy that loves fucking elections and all that stuff um so yeah and also a great point bringing up like yeah like the

you know because everyone was talking about how oh my god musad did this drone thing and like hit the ballistic missiles before they you know they had guys on the ground i'm sure they had a couple you know, singletons and operators on the ground and stuff, but like you said, they facilitate it all. They need Iranians, right, who can go in and out. And I did see a couple days ago they executed like 20 or so agents that they call it, like Musad agents. It's just insane.

Honestly, man, I'm like so taken aback by this that like the drums of war just like spinning and banging so loud. Also like there was you gov did a poll like 16% of Americans do not want to do this 16% of Americans do want to do this the rest do not like that's pretty significant yeah I mean so in terms it's like political suicide I mean I guess like Trump definitely is Teflon and he doesn't really have that to worry about you do see a split in the base there like the MAGA base and stuff like that there are people like screaming from the rooftops but I don't know what that really is going to end up doing for Trump anyway in terms like

politically. Talk a little bit about more like the inner dynamics of what it looks like in Iran right now. I mean, especially a little bit more about the resistance group. So first of all, big problem in Iran right now for the regular Iranians is fear. They're afraid of what's happening because even though Israel says they're there to help, they've killed hundreds of people that are not involved in anything. And we know that they do that frequently. But because of that fear, Iranians don't know what to do, where to go. They're trying to get out of Tehran.

A lot of them are. They're trying to go up into the mountains, like in the west, which is Karaj or down south. The problem is down south, 60 miles south is Ford out. So if they try to go south, now they're entering a new conflict zone that probably tomorrow or tonight will become, you know, the center of the conflict zone. Yeah. And they're trying to get out. And a lot of these people in Tehran, they're city people. They don't live outside, you know, like they live outside this big metropolitan area.

So for them, I mean, imagine if you're living in New York your entire life and someone says, like, evacuate up into the cat skills. I'm fucked, bro. Yeah, you know, like, that's crazy. I'm a concrete princess, dude. Exactly. Yeah. And that's what's going through a lot of people's minds. Plus, like, food and water.

And think about, you always got to think about the day after. So let's say that Khomeini dies today. What happens tomorrow? I mean, if you already took out all these top leaders who don't get me wrong are murderous villains, you know, these IRGC generals, these guys have killed thousands of Iranians inside the country. Yeah, they're terrible people, right. Of course. But what will replace them as far as law and order and social.

structure and you're going to see just, I predict, just like Iraq, there was looting, widespread violent crime, just totally unrestrained. Once you take the framework off of a society, it doesn't matter where it is. Look at France in the 1800s after Napoleon. There was Napoleon. Then there was a monarch. Then there was Napoleon. Then there was a monarch. That's where communism actually came from because it was the Paris commune twice, you know, and it was really, really violent. It was totally unrestrained. And I think that Iran, that's probably the most likely outcome. If this happened tonight, that's what would happen tomorrow. And that's very scary because whatever Israel says, rhetoric-wise, whatever Netanyahu says, where's the actual help that will come the day after?

And I don't think it doesn't seem that that is part of the plan. In fact, I think chaos is probably more preferred, especially if you look at Israeli domestic politics. The longer conflict goes on, the more Netanyahu's survival is assured. Right. He's a human being. Everyone's a human being. Everyone wants to keep doing the thing they want to do. And he sees the writing on the wall.

You know, before October 7th, hundreds of thousands of people were protesting against his government in the streets. That switched off immediately and has not started up again. So the longer this can go on, the slower burn this could be, the better domestically it is for him against his own, you know, opponents in the country. Yeah. I did remember, like, they were like, talking or spitting up like a possible no confidence vote or whatever in the parliament that kind of like went away

well that was the day before the launch of the strikes that'll do it i guess right like you have a bigger enemy to fry now and it's it's iran and it's like the big boogeyman and again like i'm not type of guy that's like saying like israel shouldn't be secure right i think they've done a relatively great job of staying secure their they're armed to the teeth right they have the best military in the region probably be by a lot right like there's some talk about like Egypt being like as good but like I don't technologically I don't believe it um so it's like Israel is pretty much secure it I mean the only time we've ever seen even last year when they hit like Iranian uh air defense radars and stuff like that like the response was like a coordinated response right yeah just saying

like hey we have to respond no one's actually going to die I think one person died and it was a an Arabic girl. But it was very coordinated, very like, you know, for lack of a better word, for show, really. Now, like, ballistic missiles are hitting in downtown Tel Aviv. People are dying in downtown Tel Aviv where, like, I don't think they're exactly used to it. I know they're, I know they're used to living in like a world like that,

where they hear rockets come in from other, it's Hamas, who these are Hezbollah, but it's relatively, it was at least relatively few and far between. Now they're getting peppered, right? And different munitions this time, because the ones from Hezbollah are smaller ordinance, smaller lower order, you know, explosions. Yeah. These are medium range ballistic missiles or larger, which have a very large impact.

So, again, that fear factor, when you hear an explosion that's this small, like small, you know, around your city block versus one that's occurred around the whole city. Big difference in how people feel in the city, you know. Totally. going back to like the the GbU 57 right which only the B2 can carry they can carry two a pop there was like reporting I believe it was watched Wall Street Journal where like Trump was asking his generals and his NSC like hey is can this actually work like can it really take out or really degrade their nuclear program according to the article

they're saying that the general said yes, it can. Of course. Prior to like this going down and when this was just conjection, everyone talking about and analyzing it, they said people were saying, no, it'll probably set it back maybe three, six months and then they'll redouble their efforts.

So what's changed besides like, oh, no, it's time to go to war. And like we don't really give a shit about like the actual truth that's on the ground and what actually can happen. Well, the way our mind works is we try to, arrange information in a way that makes our desired outcome the more accepted outcome. And I think because people are being pushed in the direction of using the weapon,

a lot more of the rhetoric in support of it is getting, you know, center stage while the other information is being pushed to the side, especially when you have hawks around in the administration saying, oh, no, we just got to do it. But you look at the maximum effective depth of that is 200 feet. Well, the site in Fordow is at least 300 feet. So you're already looking out of the math problem, it doesn't make sense. And that's at least 300 feet. What if it's deeper? What if the material composition of that mountain is such that you require even more, for a shorter depth, you require more ammunition. And of course, they've done measurement, signature intelligence to know what the composition is of the mountain. But I would question that math right up front.

And then I would also look at the other nuclear facilities because there's only a thousand centrifuges at Ford out. The fact that it's deeply buried makes us suspicious that perhaps this is a location that has either a bomb almost constructed or constructed or the best part of their uranium stockpile could be there, maybe. But I just saw Vladimir Putin talking yesterday about Boucher, because in Boucher, which is another facility, there's 200 Russian scientists and technicians from Rosatone working there right now. And apparently he reached a separate piece with Netanyahu, where Netanyahu agreed not to strike Boucher in this conflict, which is very interesting. Because if the Iranians see the news, like we see the news, that would probably stimulate them to perhaps move their uranium right now.

Sure. Or maybe they already did, and we just don't know it. There's a lot of unknown here because the noise floor is very high in this situation, and there's a lot of misinformation and misunderstanding going on. Because in this type of conflict, a lot of experts just kind of emerge out of the woodwork, throwing around things that they remember from their time maybe 10 years ago, 20 years ago. That stuff is not accurate today. Yeah, man. I mean, again, I'm going to keep saying it's freaking scary, dude, because it also seems to be happening a lot faster now than what I remember from like Iraq, you know? Like Iraq was like a year-long kind of media blitz, and that's probably having to do with like social media and how stuff is so fast. Well, I'll say back then, it took longer, I think, because Israel had to convince the American public to act.

now Israel, every country does intelligence work, right? There are no allies in the intelligence world. There are only interests. Israel collects intelligence just like we do on everybody. They're doing assessments not only of Ayatollah Khomeini, they're also doing assessments of Donald Trump about his decision-making ways. And they've probably determined that they don't have to convince the American public of this. All they have to do is convince Donald Trump.

And they probably know how to do it because they're looking at how he reacts to different things. And they're seeing which pressure points can we push today to make. an outcome tomorrow, doing the same thing with Putin, right? And that's not unusual. I mean, that's what states do. It's just unfortunate in a situation like this where so many lives are at stake, both Israeli lives, Iranian lives, and most of all American lives, we don't need to be sending our troops to go die in Iran. And if people remember the Iran-Iraq war in 1980 to 88, the way that Iran fought that war was brutal, right? And very similar situation, actually, to right now. Saddam Hussein saw an opportunity a few months after the revolution in 177,

He said, oh, it's a weak country. Now I can just go in and invade and we'll take it. He went in and he was met with massive opposition. And it's interesting because before that, there was a revolutionary situation where you had at least eight different factions. One of them is the regime today, but the other seven were also vying for power. All of them put their weapons down against each other and forced them against Saddam Hussein. And I think a similar situation could arise today because imagine if you disagree, let's say

your party A and someone else's party B and you guys want to go fight each other, but suddenly someone invades your country, you're not concerned. about fighting each other anymore. Now you're looking at this bigger threat and you're standing next to each other and that's this very scary situation and one that doesn't have to happen. That's the sad thing. It's completely avoidable to have all these lives put in danger on all fronts. Yeah, I mean, great, well said, right? Because everyone's talking about like regime change and stuff like that and how it'll top of it. But like what happens if, yeah, if they meet it with, you know, unity, right? Exactly. And like get together and fight.

Plus, like, is Israel willing to send 100,000 or so troops? Or even, like, a tier one team, like, you know, I'm sure Delta and Sealtin J-Sach. If they're not training up for their other mission, which is not just Haas Rashi, right? It's also, like, nuclear proliferation or nuclear deterrence. This, I mean, they, in their MOS, right, their skill set is to go into places like this and get nuclear weapons out or like neutralize a nuclear facility. So is Israel willing to do that without the U.S.'s help? And is the U.S. willing to do that?

I hope not. Well, Israel's done it twice before. They bombed the Osirak, Iraq nuclear reactor in Iraq, and they bomb the Syrian nuclear reactor as well without U.S. support. And the important thing is they didn't do anything afterward to secure the nuclear material. And actually in one of those, there was a bunch of North Korean engineers that were discovered under the rubble, which is very interesting.

But what if they do that again? What if they, because I saw another statement today saying it doesn't have to be an airstrike, it could be something else that blows up for it out. Maybe they've got guys inside or maybe it's like a Stuxnet type thing where they disrupt the centrifuges or some other thing. Okay, that happens. Then what? You've got hundreds of pounds of enriched uranium near weapons grade. What happens then?

There's a lot of separatist groups in Iran. There's the Baluchis, there's the Kurds, there's Aziris, and other smaller groups that, for several hundred years have been in opposition to any government in Iran. What happens if a Baluchi group gets a hold of some of that uranium and brings it to Afghanistan? Then what? You know, and that's a really big question. I mean, that's a lot of nuclear materials, hundreds of pounds of nuclear material. You can't just go put it in your backpack.

Right. Take it out. You've got to do a lot of stuff to get rid of it. And in the meantime, look in Libya. What happened when Gaddafi toppled? Those weapons proliferated around the world in like days and weeks. Same thing in Yemen and with the Houthis, as soon as the Yemeni government fell. all those weapons stores were cleared out, like same day.

And these other groups that now we hate are armed with all the equipment that we freed up. When I say we, I mean, collectively, you know, the world freed up for these groups to get a hold of. And now you're talking uranium. I would hope to see an exit strategy advertised with, along with these threats of invasion and attack. Yeah, that'd be amazing. I mean, we're not going to get it, right? No, definitely not. On purpose, too, because the uncertainty makes it more pressure for the other side.

tougher sell um so i'm gonna ask a one of my buddies asked right one of my buddies's new york i works in manhattan and it it's interesting this israel iranian conflict has like kind of elevated past like people that really are interested in like foreign policy geopolitical stuff it's elevated past like the general public my buddy who's not really like concerned about that he's concerned about making money like you know and taking care of his family like most people he's like oh what's going to happen like in terms of like blowback right what does blowback look like if the u.s gets involved in striking facilities and like an open-ended you know air campaign against iran yeah i would be more concerned about how the u.s gets further pulled into the conflict

than about specifically what iran does in reaction to it because the regime is very weak it has been weak even before this it's been weakened for years so their ability to actually conduct an offense against the United States, pretty low. Even against like Bahrain, where we have Fifth Fleet, or in Qatar, where we have the Air Force or, you know, absent. It would be very tough for them to kind of have a sustained campaign against those. They only have 2,000 missiles. So they've already fired about 30 to 50 percent of them.

So, I mean, you got a swan song there at the end where they can launch the rest. But then what, right? But I'd be more concerned about, okay, the U.S. goes in there, kind of like Operation Anaconda in Afghanistan. We went in there, and we executed a flawless invasion, did what we wanted to do. a few weeks, and then we stayed for 20 years. And that's, that's more concerning to me, because that is more likely, because it's easy for us to get wrapped up, you know, bit by bit by bit, pulled into this thing. And now you're in a position that you can't get out of. You're

in a dilemma. And it seems as though we're already moving toward that dilemma now, the way we're getting pulled in, the way we brought the B2 bombers even a few months ago in April, you know, doing those small little things without us even realizing it pulls us into the conflict in a way that's very challenging for us to get out of on our own. It's not that the enemy is doing something specifically, is that we are doing something that cements us into further conflict. Yeah. So I basically told my friend, I try to dumb it down to where it's like,

listen, if we do get involved, likely, like, because like you said, Iran's pretty weak regime, right? Like, they don't really have the reach that people think they do. But, like, if we were to get involved and it's like two, three years down the road, I'm like at that point like maybe you can worry about like a bomb going off somewhere in the United States right like where it's like a smaller terrorist attack kind of thing

rather than like ballistic missiles raining down and I told them like they can't reach here and they don't have as many like we're fine yeah it's nuts man it's so crazy because people are just so fucking like it's just like they have like goldfish memories yeah well there's one thing that's very important to remember and that's 1953

That's when the U.S., the CIA, and Great Britain went in and overthrew Mohamed Mosedek, who was a democratically elected prime minister at Iran under Operation Ajax, which I encourage listeners to read about. Very fascinating point in our history. We did that to bring the Shah to power. That was the son of the original Shah, who we and the British also brought to power after World War I. So there's a history of foreign involvement, not just the U.S., but foreign involvement in Iran, that tends to turn Iranians against certain foreign interests.

Like, there's a great opportunity for the United States to be friends with Iran in the future, with a new government and new situation. But if we repeat or do something similar to Operation Ajax, there is a very high chance that we will have no friends in Iran, which is very sad because that country has great people, amazing culture and history, obviously, but also amazing natural resources that are just sitting there. And they also have the Straits of Hormuz right south of them, and they could help secure that area rather than make it threatened, right?

The country has such potential to be a positive actor for us. And it did during the entire Shah's period from 1953 through 1979, which is quarter of a century. That was our best friend in the Middle East. Who replaced that best friend, Israel. And I think it would threaten Israel to have that friend again, because now that would threaten the balance that's been set up. It would threaten the aid that set up. That lifeline that we have set up, all that work that they've done over the years to get those things in their country, to get guaranteed $6 billion a year of foreign assistance, no strings attached, et cetera.

All that stuff is now in jeopardy because there's another country with more resources, more people, more industry, all this, you know, so many more things to offer the United States economically that I think it would not be in Israel's interest to allow us to be friends with a new Iranian government. it would instead they'd prefer probably to have a more chaotic outcome. Yeah. Because that would keep them at the top as far as Middle East politics goes. Bro, I don't understand. I never feel happy after these conversations with people. Like even when I'm doing with the guys, it's like, when do we get some good news, right?

Like, and like, honestly, I'm not a Trump guy, but obviously I have to give him a little bit of credit of like not just. jumping into this completely half-cocked. I really do. Hopefully, this is a move to, like, try and bring Iran to the table. The one wild card, in my opinion, is Israel. Because, like, even if we did have, like, a deal, right? In place, right? I can't see Israel stopping.

Right. What's in their interest to continue, especially if we're approaching a deal? Because that, as I said, it shatters their ability to maintain the balance in the region. Good Lord. All right, let's talk a little bit about, because it seems like everybody forgot about Gaza and what's going on there. The genocide that's going on there. I'll say it. The war crimes that are going on over there.

Not a fan of Hamas guys, just FYI. I know they are a terrorist organization. And I hate that I have to qualify the fact that I think that I believe that Israel should be secure and, you know, keep their security. But what they've been doing over the last two years, close to two years. has been just like like ganges con type stuff you know where it's just we'll starve them out well you know it's fine we'll be fine uh there's no end game there much like there seems to be no end game in iran either um i just don't understand what the move is what do you know what are your thoughts i have no questions i just speak and i'm like it's like jazz so the former

director of masad back and i think it was 2005 said that every palestine either is a terrorist, gives birth to terrorists, or is a relative of a terrorist. And I think that explains the behavior toward Gaza. Yeah. Because as you qualified what you said, there is no qualification for how they're describing Palestinian. And it was interesting today is ironic that Netanyahu said that, you know, Iran hit a hospital. Nobody was hurt.

But that's in a red line that Iran hit a hospital. I was thinking, well, it's a good thing there's no more hospitals in Gaza to accidentally hit. Right. sarcastically and sadly saying that but look at the double standard here you know why is that okay and yeah but it doesn't make it just doesn't make sense it's very hard to wrap your head around from a logical perspective because it's not logical it's emotional you know it's ideological the the way that they're framing these things and that's how they're able to keep people

supporting it is through ideology rather than logic which is very scary because ideology knows no bounds yeah and i you know uh i i i must Assuming a person who was like pro this the operations in Gaza would be like, oh, because Hamas has their command and control there. And that might be true. But like, you know, in Tel Aviv, Ministry of Defense or like some important buildings are in downtown Tel Aviv, right? Like at the same time, look at, you know, your Marines in 2004 in Fallujah, right? They went house to fucking house to clear out stuff. they lost a lot of guys

they didn't just make it place rubble completely wipe it off the map they literally went house to fucking Andy Milburn was there you know it was unbelievable it was insane you know the amount like the kind of urban warfare that was going on there

well even a more direct comparison if you look at the strike that killed Mohamed Baguerre who was one of the IRGC commanders that they killed it's a very small hole about the size of a grapefruit that they struck him with. Why can't they use that level of precision in Gaza to kill these, quote-unquote, leaders, the 40,000 to 50,000 leaders that they've killed, which, again, very questionable description

of these people. Why haven't they used that? If Mossad has such exquisite intelligence and Shinbet has such exquisite intelligence, why can't they do these precision strikes there? If you're looking at it, though, from a logical perspective, what they're doing is they're purposely destroying Gaza. They're flattening it to the ground so that they can take it back. And although many Israelis don't agree with that, those who are in decision-making positions do.

And those are the ones with their ability to send these forces out to do these things. And I think a lot of Israelis don't want this to happen. A lot of them before October 7th were very pro-Palestinian rights. There's a lot of organizations in Israel that actually help Palestinians, you know. But there are also a lot that do the opposite. I saw an interview today with a Palestinian-Israeli citizen who was denied entry into a bunker in his city inside of Israel because he spoke Arabic. They actually changed the code in the door and he actually was exposed to a bomb landing nearby because he wasn't allowed in a bunker

because he's Palestinian, even though he's a citizen of Israel. Yeah. That tells you something. And again, it doesn't characterize the entire state. Right. But there are absolutely people with decision-making power that are pushing this agenda. I mean, well, look at this mute, that mutant Ben-Gavir, you know, his party is the Jewish power party, man. If I was a lot of like, hey, guys, I'm joining this new party on Korea. It's called White Power Party. Right. Yeah. That's going to be looked at as like, yo, relax, dude, what the fuck's going on?

Right? It's incredible because Jews for, you know, during, in Europe, got fucking annihilated, right? It was horrible. So I would assume at least like you'd have some

affection and some like care about people who are, are not you or not your religion, you want to be interested in wiping them out. And again, I'm not saying all of Israelis are like that, but the people that you said are in power, right? The war cabinet, Ben Yahu and his coalition are very much about that.

I just think you would have a little bit more sensitivity to that, to where, like, we should be able to live with these people in a relative piece, work together to, you know, root out the, the bad actors and stuff like that. But what they're just doing, like just going into Gaza, bulldozing Gaza, taking more settlements in the West Bank. It's like, dude, if I live there and I was Palestinian, what the fuck you, what is anyone doing, man?

Like, you see your family dying and stuff like that. I'm picking up a fucking AK too. Yeah. Well, look at Hezbollah. You know, people say like, oh, Hezbollah, it came out of nowhere. It was this crazy organization, which, yeah, again, have to qualify. It's a terrible organization that did a lot of violence. But where did it come from? Israel invaded Lebanon in June 6, 1982.

Then there was resistance. Israel was getting their asses handed to them in Beirut. Ariel Sharon had called on the United States to come support them. The United States sent the multinational forces to Lebanon. The Marines went there. The French went there. The Italians went there. And two years later, or one year later, the bombings on those barracks occurred by these different groups.

Some were controlled by Syrians. And, you know, you can get it to the long history. all this, Hezbollah didn't exist until 1985. There was no Hezbollah in 1982 when Israel invaded. And even then, Hezbollah was very small. Then you look at 2006 when Israel invaded Lebanon again, the 30-day war there. Hezbollah tripled in size after that, and they gained 12 seats in parliament after Israel left Lebanon. Right. So you have this kind of weird thing where there's a Israeli action, a military action that causes, as you said, people there to suddenly change the way they think about things and say, you know what, I don't like this. I'm going to resist this.

I didn't do this before, but because they're threatening my homeland, you better believe them to pick up a weapon and defend my village. It doesn't matter whose bomb it belongs to, you know, where that came from. Like, I just don't want these people here. And that behavior continues to generate resistance that didn't exist. It did not exist before, you know. And it's a very short-sighted way of going after these conflicts, just like in Iran, just like in Gaza and West Bank. It's like, oh, let's hurt them today. And that's all that matters. And it's, it's a very short-sided way of doesn't seem or feel like they're thinking 20 and 30 years in the future about what what does this do to even our country to Israel for example in 2018 they passed the Jewish purity law that says that

it's a purely Jewish state and there's no other religion recognized or all that if you read the article it's very crazy to read but doing I mean that article is threatened by what they're doing right now 25% of their citizens are Palestinian 22% what about those people how will they feel? Especially if they're shut out of bunkers today, they're not going to forget that. And their families won't forget that. That is an idea that lives for a very long time and is not forgotten. And I feel like people need to think more about the future.

Like, what does this mean down the road? Okay. What's the second and third order effect? Not on just us, but on the region and on the greater world area. You know, kind of rambling on about that. But it kind of blows my mind. Yeah, I think we don't think about it. even like even with like in the U.S.

with when we went into Iraq, Afghanistan, um, we didn't think about the blowback, right? We didn't, we didn't go into it thinking like, you know, we made bad decisions. We didn't think about the,

you know, debatification, what blowback that would look like, uh, destabilizing an entire region that did bring on like, you know, from 2003 on when you get rid of Saddam, Iran,

Iran had, was able to like fill the vacuum. right and cause a civil war in iraq because it's majority it's majority shia right in iraq yeah i mean so i'm sure there are smart people in our government obviously they are right i've met a bunch of them and it's like when i meet them guys like you or like other people we're like all right these guys are fucking locked in like they you know thank god like they choose to do something of service rather than make triple or quadruple the money they can make outside somewhere else using their smarts um but it just seems so often that the people in power don't listen to them don't listen to the

people that are like the actual subject matter experts that know and then you know game this out it's their whole job and when they tell them like clear as day that these leaders don't listen and it's um and what kind of leadership is that i don't know yeah it's political decisions that are being made without policy information you know i don't know if you saw that tulsie Gabbard came out again and said basically the regime did not have a nuclear weapon, basically saying the same thing we've been saying since 2003 when we first put out that very first memo that said Iran stopped doing their nuclear program for weaponization. And apparently she's getting sidelined because she said that.

Yeah, I saw that. Which is, actually, when I heard that, I was thinking about the Abraham Lincoln period, when his advisors were picked purposely in opposition to each other and to him. So that way they could come out with a, like, have a synthesis outcome for a policy debate where like, I don't agree with you, but what if we get a better outcome because we, because we disagree. We actually sit down and listen to it. We talk through it and come out with option C. And that is so the opposite of what's going on now. And I remember during the first administration, the president actually stopped reading the daily, the president's daily brief. And that's,

that's amazing because that information is the most pure, accurate, up-to-date information. Intelligence is never perfect. It's gotten certainty built into it. But if you want the ground truth as close as possible to the truth, you can't ignore that stuff. And if your entire intelligence community is telling you, hey, it's not the way it's being told to you by these foreign interests, aka Israel. Maybe you should take a second look at it. But instead, you can see a political decision is being made rather than an informed decision. That political decision or emotional decision is based on individual thought rather than constructive sitting down at the table and kind of like game planning. I hope that happens today at the NSC. I hope generals come in. The IC comes

in, the ODNI comes in, they all sit down and kind of work through this and pick the option that makes the most sense for the United States and for the world. Because people forget we are a world power, even if someone wants to be isolationist, okay, but you can't change the fact that we are actually affecting every corner of this earth right now and will be for a very long time. Right. And our actions have far reaching consequences for everybody, including ourselves. Yeah, and you can't just decouple from being, you know, a world power, like an economic world power, right like we make sure the trains run on time we're a huge consumer of goods too like so yeah exactly it's not like overnight you could just flip the switch the interesting thing about the nSC is like how many

people are left you know there's probably like nine people in there yeah you know like yeah um i just really hope there are some policy wanks in there some analysts who are like sobering analysts who are like listen we don't know what this is going to happen you know and you know mentioned that the resistance group that most likely is going to have going to be able to like, you know, be the, if there's a vacuum in Iran, like, they're probably going to take it over. It's possible that Israel tries to push the Shah's son into power. I did see him.

He's doing TV hits and stuff like that. Yeah. Yeah. Which, again, looking back, we've done that twice already. And both times, it worked out badly. And this time, I don't think it will be any different. Nothing against him. The problem is he's been so out of it since the 80s.

He has not been involved, vocal, you know, there's no unified opposition besides the Mujahideenikha in the country and outside the country. And most of the Iranians that fled during the revolution didn't go back. Yeah. There's a disconnect between these two sets of Iranians. Without that unification, there's probably going to be some kind of chaos right afterward or for a long period of time. Weren't we also trying to do this with the guy in Iraq who was out of the country for like, however, 30 years or whatever? You mean Ahmed Shalabi? Yes, yeah.

So he was actually working for the Iranian government, which actually came out afterward. He was like a full-fledged Iranian agent, and we brought him in. And he was the dude that said that, well, there's definitely nukes. There's definitely all this stuff. There's these refrigerator trucks driving around with chemical weapons. And then we put him in power immediately as soon as we over through the government, which he got what he wanted. Right. Yeah.

And then we eventually pushed him away. But, I mean, something very similar could happen again. Right. Oh, man. So yeah, listen, my fingers across, you know, I hope like, it's just insane because Trump is so unpredictable. And like day to day it seems to change. And I really hope there is a general in there or somebody. There's no natural security advisor.

I mean, it's Rubio, but how can you be the Secretary of State and National Security Advisor? He's also in charge of the archives, by the way. He's got three hats. Yeah. I mean, it's just, it's gnarly to me. And, you know, I saw another report, too, where, like, Trump's been talking with Lindsey Graham, like, all the time. Like, Lindsey Graham is a proper fucking ghoul demon.

I'll say it, bro. And it's not because he's a Republican, because Fetterman is also a ghoul demon. It's just, it's just not smart. It's not strategic. It's not, like, at all. Like, it's just like, you guys have a serious job. Senators, right?

You have a serious. There's only 100 of you. It's a serious job. It's a sobering job. You should take it serious. about going into another country bombing another country that it might not even work if I'm

if I'm Iran and they bomb what's the name of the frog frog though Fordow fordow sorry I am tripling my efforts to get a nuclear weapon oh yeah right

yeah there's a reason why they they get him is because it's regime security McMorroy says it he's like you could be Libya like Gaddafi who gave him up or try and be North Korea. The guy's there for one reason, and one reason is because he's got nuclear weapons.

Man, I don't know. It's going to be an interesting few weeks, for sure. This Israeli campaign, they said it's going to last at least weeks. I mean, I could see it being completely indefinite. Any final thoughts? Well, my thought is about the Iranian people because almost every Iranian that you meet is anti-regime. There's a very, very, very.

tiny minority of people in the country that actually support the regime and most of them are government employees. Let's say 80 million of these people hate the regime. That does not mean that they want the regime just eliminated, period, without an exit strategy. There needs to be a way that the people who actually live there have a positive outcome. Right. That should really be the top priority in this situation, not just destroying this alleged nuclear bomb that exists somewhere. instead it should be let's get regional security and regional peace by by looking at the people that will be affected by our choices in those countries and just today CNN finally showed footage from inside Iran that was the very first western media outlet I saw where there's actually an American journalist walking around inside Tehran showing you and of course the regime is behind them and the regime is controlling what they see for sure but the destruction that's there is destruction that's there it is not made up it's not staged building's class right it's not production design yeah exactly it's not a set So if you look at the Israeli side, though, how much media coverage is there of inside Tel Aviv right now? Oh, my God, 24 hours a day, right?

I saw an advertisement. It said, please send $45 to us because Iran is bombing Israel. Israel needs your $45. I mean, there are people making money off this. Yeah. And it's sickening to think, like, you're putting children and women and husbands and all these people at risk in both countries and all the countries. Right. Because you are perhaps, like, not you, but some people are. so short-sighted and so self-centered on the situation.

They don't understand that this is going to have a negative impact on you, you know? Right. And for generations, man, like, I was listening to some podcast with a former deputy NSA for Kamala Harris. I forget the guy's name. Anyway, it was around foreign affairs. And he said, he's like, we don't know what, like, you know, the next 20 or 30 years are going to look like because it's such a disaster in there. And it's so, I know obviously paraphrasing

because I'm not as well spoken as this dude, but just doing this like into the unknown, right? Like we didn't know that ISIS was going to come about when we went into Iraq, right? We had no idea. And like, sure, there were jihadis in Iraq before we went in, but AQI was not a thing. It didn't exist.

Right. So it's just, The blowback is incredible. Also, like in cross Africa, the fundamental, you know, the jihadism are, it's proliferated to an extent where it's like almost unbelievable to think about. I mean, look at the French. They're like, oh, we did Operation Serval. We fixed the problem. And then you look fast forward to now.

And it is so widespread across the Sahel-McReb region. There were some effects for sure, but it's morphed into something else. You go to Nigeria right now. I mean, like, you are in danger at risk from these groups all across the continent, especially in the central Sahel region. And that wasn't an accident or didn't come out of cold cloth. That was because conditions were set inadvertently by outside action that led to these groups expanding. Yeah, man, it's really scary.

I mean, I'm going to be, like, locked into my fucking phone and Twitter over the next, like, forever. I mean, it, and it feels like the last couple of days, just to end on this, like, it feels like the last few days, especially, it's been like a waiting game. Super on edge. It's like, I'm like, literally my thought in my head is like, all right, I'm going to refresh Twitter. And I'm going to see, oh, yeah, US bombs. Fog, what's this, what's it called, bro?

Fordow. Fordow, sorry, Fordow, you know. And you'll see, like, the rest of the people freaking, you know, celebrating like we've done something. Like, we, you know, like it's V-Day. Yeah. Or V-E-Day, you know what I mean? Like, yeah.

All right, Jonathan. I want you guys to go and check out first off Jonathan's episode on the team house really cool interesting military career very different than most Marines one of my favorite episodes in recent

in recent times of the team house his book three of a regular warfare that's out now people can get that right now and other book that's coming out Iran's shadow weapons which goes into like all their covert action and you know Hezbollah like all the stuff that they

do that's coming out soon right yep it's coming out in September okay so I'm gonna put links in the description make sure everybody grabs and pre-orders the new book John's a good egg really fun time we should definitely do this again John this is awesome yeah I love to anything else I'm trying to think I'm doing the housekeeping oh if you want to support the show you can get the team house and eyes on geopolitics completely ad-free and early you can go to patreon.com slash the team house of course the rest of the guys, all their links are in the description. You can check them out there.

And yeah, John, this is great, bro. Thank you. Yeah, thanks. I appreciate it. Hey, guys, it's Jack. I just want to talk to you for a moment about how you can support the show. If you've been watching it, enjoying it, but you'd like to get a little bit more involved and help us continue to do this.

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