The Team House - Drones over New Jersey: Foreign Actor or U.S. Penetration Test? | EYES ON PODCAST

Episode Date: December 18, 2024

today we run down the drone situation in New Jersey, the Syria conference in Jordan, Austin Tice, potential light at the end of the tunnel in Gaza and S. Korea impeaching their presidentSubscribe to the new EYES ON YouTube channel.⬇️https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJytcQbSOEKLGyhNwkqpd3ASupport the show on Patreon:⬇️https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouseFind Jason here ⬇️https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=ios_apphttps://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.socialFind Andy Milburn here:⬇️https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023https://amilburn.substack.com/https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operationshttps://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.socialhttps://open.substack.com/pub/amilburn/p/journal-of-a-plague-year?utm_source=app-post-stats-page&r=emo6q&utm_medium=iosFind Mick Mulroy here:⬇️https://fogbow.com/https://www.loboinstitute.org/https://x.com/MickMulroy?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthorhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.social#drones #syriaBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support.

Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Aizan. We have the full crew here, Andy Milburn, retired Marine Colonel, Jason Lyons, former CIA officer, retired Marine. I've heard this before that there are no former Marines. They're only retired Marines. Someone's corrected me before on that. No, there are ex-marines. Ex-Marines. There are former Marines.

Okay. And Mick Moroy. And we're trying to avoid the term retired. Oh, I'm sorry, guys. I don't know. largely, because when people put it on. license plates it comes out as RTD. Yeah.

And of course, Mick Morroy, former CIA paramilitary officer. Mick, what was your title? I'm sorry when you were in DOD? Oh, it was the deputy assistant secretary depends for the Middle East. I'm going to get that. I'm going to get that in the next couple of episodes,

I promise. Yeah, that's all right. You do. Leave it out. Yeah, sorry, Andy. And of course, Our heads. Yeah. Another. Not ex-marine. What do I say? Ex-Marine?

I'm a former Marine. Yeah. Former Marine. All right. I don't want to get people upset. Our team marine. We already have. It's too late.

I was going to say. It's just so this, we began this episode by saying his D, you know, former, I don't know, friend of, a friend of goats and the denizen of that slum known as Brooklyn. I mean, I would have taken that. I would have taken that. I used the term slum because I've been criticized heavily on this show for using the term shit hole. Yeah.

Do you get on my use it? It turns out someone lives there. So you're calling Brooklyn a shit hole. Got it. Oh. Of course not. So we got a lot cooking. The thing that's like really all over Twitter

and is now leaking and more, you know, more and more getting picked up by the mainstream media is, the drones over New Jersey. I'm going to go ahead and say it. I know, like, if you guys know you're not going to be able to say anything, I think this is a United States pen test, like just seeing how local law enforcement or even federal law enforcement's reacting to this.

You don't have to comment on that. That's fine. But I don't think it's aliens. And I don't think it's Russians, Iranians, or Chinese. Yeah, it's kind of interesting. I'm sorry. Please. No, go ahead.

Yeah, kind of interesting what is happening, but regardless of who's behind it. And, and, I mean, I agree there's probably, there's cause for concern here. Because even if it, even if these aren't bad actors, someone's watching, right, how U.S. response. And why they pick in New Jersey, I don't know. And I'm going to avoid using the term shit hole. But, but it, but again, you know, I mean, it's, it's an area. Yeah, the assumption is that I suppose that New York is going to be highly protected. New Jersey is just next door.

And so, you know, if you can penetrate New Jersey, then the implications are serious. And I point out at the same time, in U.S. bases in my homeland, country of origin, I should say, United Kingdom, there has been considerable drone activity so much so that the U.K. military has deployed anti-dron. defenses and then you couple that with what Charles Lister was saying the other day about the proliferation of drone technology from Ukraine to the Middle East and the HTS's use of drones in all types of drones picking up a lot of what the Ukrainians had learned and then lastly I know we've touched on this before and we're going to have an episode coming up I hope on Ukraine again because the rapid advance of drone technology there.

I mean, Ukraine is a furnace for advanced drone technology and the integration of AI is galloping at rapid pace. So throwing in enough mixed metaphors there. So right now, for instance, within Ukraine, I mean, we've seen just in the last six months, On the Russian side, the Ukrainians are estimating that the Russians are throwing up about a thousand drones a day of all types, right, in a 24-hour period. And the Ukrainians can't match that, but they are focusing on the sophistication of drones. The distance, the legs on the average drone now, and we're talking very expendable drones, is about 30K.

Now, remember, near the beginning of the war, we were talking about 100K being like S. aspirational, that is regularly being, you know, they're regularly covering 100K with their, both their reconnaissance drones and their strike drones. But, you know, the average drone operator at squad level and every Ukrainian squad has guys who are just focused on drone operations is around 30K. But perhaps more concerning than that. And by the way, these things are carrying warheads. the perhaps more concerning that is again this integration of AI so as drone operators are kind of high density I mean sorry low density high demand even in Ukraine which is kind of a startup nation and they had plenty of tech guys on a lot of FPV drone pilots but they never have enough and so as their

ability to to equip the drones with AI increases and I just you know And I'll caveat this by saying an estimate only about 10% of drones now do have AI capability. And by that I mean that they can bypass jamming at some point in their journey. They can bypass jamming by object identification. And so it's often quite rudimentary. And now you're talking just one or two K in which kind of the kind of the, terminal guidance is provided by IA, but that is increasing all the time. And the sophistication of object identification is increasing too. And pretty soon you're going to have drones on both

sides just roaming, looking and, you know, searching and engaging based on AI with no humans in the loop. And neither the Russians or the Ukrainians have any issue with that. I'm not, That's not a judgment call them, just comparing it to, on the United States, we're always going to have a human in the loop, I would imagine. But countries that don't or don't care about that or are pushed into that necessity have a huge advantage and has to do any adversaries here in the United States. So I think it's more than, you know, it is certainly something of concern. and I think we have to be, we collectively, law enforcement has to be very careful about what it's broadcasting, and its ability to counter these things. And if it doesn't have a significant ability to counter the next generation of drones that are going to be fully AI capable with a closure distance, you know, of 10K or more,

and if we're not there yet technologically encountering that, we need to be quiet about it and we need to bring our, capabilities are, but focus all out on doing that. And that applies both to DOD and to law enforcement. I'll shut up at that point. So you think it's who? Do you think it's the U.S. pen testing? Oh, is that what you're thinking? That's my guess.

I don't have a clearance. I don't have to worry. So you don't have to answer this. Mick, what are your thoughts? Well, I don't know. I would, I think Andy covered the technology we're facing right pretty Well, I would say from a leadership perspective, if it's some kind of test, they need to, they need to tell people. I mean, this is well beyond, you know, I call it ridiculous.

This is a test that's going on this long and they're not telling people what's a test. It's almost like they're deliberately trying to cause, you know, mass hysteria, which should not be that role. The U.S. government for the U.S. people. So I don't know. But I think, I think it's clear that they, if they're going to come out and say, you know, half of these are planes, they got to address. the other half. Okay. So what's the other half? We don't think they're a threat. Well, what are they? We don't know. Well, how do you know if it's not a threat? I mean, these are just basic questions. You don't have to be a national security professional to understand that you can't just, you know,

make statements like that without explaining why you think that's the case. And maybe it is the case. And maybe they know. But it's, you know, it's past time for them to explain if it's not a threat, why do you think it's not a threat? And what is it? that's what I would say. And, you know, we've heard people talk about how they're everywhere, right? I turn it over to Jason to actually talk about that. But I just think it's, it's past time for them to explain what it is and why they think it's not a threat. Yeah, Jason, you live in Jersey, man. So you actually see them. Yeah. So I actually, I'm from Jersey and I work in Jersey, but I live in Pennsylvania right across the border. And we have. clear skies here. So I walk outside since this thing is started, I started counting probably about a week into it or so. And we average at least 15 to 20 a night. Like you'll go from,

you can see them off to the south traveling or I should say, yeah, off to the south a little bit traveling east to west. And then you can see like you see four or five of them. Then you'll see another four or five coming back or west to east. I'm sorry. And then you see them coming back. uh, east to west. And then in between, you just see them hovering all over. I was just telling you guys before we started taping that I dropped my granddaughter off last night to my daughter, pulling the driveway, I get out. There's one hovering about 500 feet or so up or whatever. It's just flitting back and forth. And I just waved at it. It was like, have a good night. Walk inside you get. And that could be speaking to the whole pen testing. That could be part of it is trying to see how easily we're lulled into getting used to seeing these things. Because now, Now, yes, people are freaking out. They're saying stuff, but I believe that a lot of people are just so used to them that they don't even care. It's like we're just waiting for something to happen. But I'm getting phone calls and texts, you know, hey, what's going on?

And I literally know as much as everybody else. I know that there was a briefing with mayors and some politicians from D.C. the other day. And I believe it was about five hours. And they didn't learn anything. So as Andy said and as Mick was saying too that they have to tell us something because if this is a test, okay, great, it's a test. You don't have to tell us what the test is, but tell us it's a test. We're doing it and it's a test. I don't believe it's aliens, but I also won't take everything else off the table. The problem is, is I'm also getting phone calls and texts and even at work, we're getting calls that people are saying, I'm going to start shooting at these things. you know, or they're asking us the law. What's the law if I shoot one of these things down? And I'm not law enforcement.

I won't say where it is I work, but I'm not law enforcement. So we have to tell people we can't advise you one way or the other, but all we can say is what goes up will come down. That has to come down and you're responsible for that. So, yeah, they're going to have to do something. The other thing, the last thing I'll say is we, the houses, we sit under the approach for not a major airport. right, a mid-level airport. And you used to see planes all the time.

I'm watching one right now, actually, on its approach. Used to see them all the time at night. Now, since this has started, you might see one aircraft. And it's almost like in between the drones, like the drones are not there, a plane of land, and then the drones are back. So I don't know what's going on. But it's going to take either them telling us what's going on or, God forbid, a midair or a near midair or something like that. And nobody wants that.

Yeah, that was, this was happening in Montana. There's a virtual 100% certainty people would be shooting at these drugs. I can tell you that right now. Absolutely. You wouldn't be asking. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I've had people that are saying, you know what, I'm just going to start carrying my rifle with me.

And if I'm in a place where nobody's around or, you know, it's out towards the ocean, I'm just going to shoot at it. I'm like, listen, I can't tell you one way or another, but good luck. Hey, guys, it's Jack. I just wanted to talk to you today about a way that you can help support the podcast. if you're not already. To support the channel is to become a Patreon member. So we have Patreon memberships that start at just $5 a month.

And when you sign up, you get access to all of our episodes ad free. That's the big bonus for that. I mean, we also do some Patreon bonus episodes for our subscribers. But this is the biggest and best way that you can support the Teamhouse channel and podcast if you'd like to. And we really appreciate that. go it and check us out at patreon.com slash the team house. Yeah. It's interesting too now that like more and more,

what we don't have answers or even like a clue, people are taking this and running with it, like with conspiracy theories and stuff like that. Twitter is like even my Twitter where I'm not a UFO guy is inundated with like these drones, that drone, these orbs in Jersey. And it's like nonstop. And even a buddy.

of mine, whose I respect and I think is a smart guy, uh, call me up the other day. He's like, yo, can you tell me what's going on? I'm like, he was like freaking out. And he's like a, he's like an attorney, like a successful guy. I'm like, dude, relax. Even if it is the fucking Chinese or somebody like, nothing's like, what are they going to do? They're not going to kill us. Like, calm down. Your day to day is fine. And it's not alien. So stop thinking about that. Yeah. Well, even like I think Andy said it earlier, um, whatever it is, our enemies are watching and they're learning based on, you know, the media and our responses and our government. And they're just, you know, metaphorically writing this stuff down and saying, okay,

now we know what works. So it behooves our government to get us some sort of answers. You don't have to give us all the details, but tell us something so that people will stop freaking out and the bad guys will stop learning. Yeah. Absolutely. Just one more question. Who could it possibly be if it's i mean the dod came out and said that it's not a foreign actor right but they also said we don't know what it is um and in some cases there were like where they're working in unison and stuff like that who has the capability to do that we're speculating here hypothetically i don't know who has the capability as i can't say it's you know trying or it's this or that or

i don't know enough about it um but i mean you have to we have run the gamut at work from a bad actor, China, Russia, Iran, whatever, all the way through to a, I'm not, I'm not saying that it's X, you know, or not X, or not SpaceX or anything like that. But what I'm saying, a company like that working in concert with the government and saying, hey, we want to test these things out, these drones out, you know, do your, we have your permission. So also, too, we had to even kick around. It's just some private people screwing around. That's way far end of the spectrum because if it isn't the government and it is some private entity,

there's no way the government would put up with that. So I don't think it's at, but you have to just take every possibility except for aliens. So I'm going to say that. And unless you're really just trying to see, you know, the average civilian's reaction, which seems like they wouldn't do that, why not go to a test facility? Exactly. You have them all over the place,

where you're not bothering people. You're not changing directions of flight pass. You're not having people standing outside with shotguns. We should point out, if you do shoot something up, it comes down, right? Exactly. I'm not promoting doing that because you could end up killing somebody. But we have test facilities all over the country.

So if it's a counter-drome thing, why are they doing an overpopulated area? Yeah. I think it's entirely possible that it's individuals. You know, we assume, and this is part of the problem with drones

and drone technology, how much it has improved. We assume when we see something like this that looks fairly sophisticated that it is governmental or an organization or a company. But again, you know, if you're watching Ukraine

and you're watching the people that are making, turning drones into magic out there, it is the drone operators and yes in conjunction with small startups but it's entirely possible that that technology has been brought over here and it's a dude or a bunch of dudes with that kind of know-how who are doing this purely for their amusement i mean why not we're leaving an investigation then aren't these guys going over airports and over oh yeah ways and like that's all against the law it's crazy and it's only at night i don't know anyone who is at least where i work

There's never been reported during the daytime. Literally as soon as the sun goes down, they start popping up. And some of the reports, some of the things that we have seen are they are as small as the little quadcopter ones. And some are reporting as, and this is from law enforcement as large as a small car. So I don't know. I assume that there are private entities that might have them that big. But some are saying fixed wing. I've never seen a fixed wing.

The ones I've seen are like a larger quadcopter type. But my thing is this, they have to originate and terminate somewhere. So talking to someone who works in aviation, most of them, their RCS, a radar cross section is small enough that it's very hard or impossible to pick them up on radar. But some are big enough that they are picking them up and they are warning aircraft that something is in the area. So I believe, this is me for everybody out there. I believe our government knows at least where they're originating from and going back to. But until they know more, they're just not going to say more. So, yeah, because, I mean, anybody who has time and, you know, a good view of the sky

would be able to at least figure out the general area where they're coming from. So. Yeah. Yeah. next thing on the docket a little bit more Syria there's a Syria conference going on in Jordan make you you brought to something in terms of wanted to talk about it what are you thinking what's your well I mean there's a couple things I'd point out first of all you know a week before a Lepo fall there was most diplomats including Western diplomats were throwing in a towel completely right they were like Sons won this thing we got to normalized relationships take the sanctions up, blah, blah, blah. It's just a lesson learned that people should, you know,

don't not be so easily tout to, you know, dictators and despots, right? Sometimes you just have to bear with it, stick to it, and in order to succeed. And I just was reading a whole article about all the comments. I'll leave people's name out of it about people who were essentially not only wrong, but really just to throw in the towel. So, and then, of course, after Lippo fell, just how fast everything fell, right? It shows you that a lot of these dictators, if it wasn't for foreign actors like Russia and Iran, would not be there.

And Assad is absolutely kind of a good example of that. You know, we went from Thursday, I think, was Hamas, and then, Holmes was almost immediately after that. And then, you know, that was supposed to be the last, you know, hold out for Assad's forces. It fell immediately and then so did Damascus. So I would just point that out. that sometimes tenacity and persistence is what wins these things.

And I would just highlight that is what's needed for Ukraine. It's not to, I'm tired, I'm tired, I'm tired, just let them have it. Okay. That's what they want you to do. So I'd highlight that to start with. The other, so yeah, they're in Akaba. There have been Akaba. It's got great diving, by the way.

But there's about, I think, 12 different countries represented in there, plus the UN, you know, Peterson, the special envoy. there's no Syrians there, which I find kind of odd. There's no Syrian representation. I don't know why that's the case, but, you know, if that was deliberate, it'd be interesting to find out why. I think that's always a bad idea. This whole thing hinges on the Syrian, you know, components working together to establish a government that represents all Syrians, right?

And so they're going to have this entire international conference, which probably is also talking about humanitarian assistance and, you know, recovery operation, reconstruction. And they don't have anybody there represent. They actually have somebody that stepped into the transitional prime minister role, Bashir. So I'm not sure why that's the case. Somebody needs to explain that. It sounds like they should be.

And then, of course, and I point out, you know, Secretary Blankens there, he's laid out the steps that they have to do to be recognized, whatever comes out of this by the U.S. government, full diplomatic relations, right? So the State Department. that is protection of the minority, okay, the minority, and including all components, ethnic groups in Syria, the elimination of all chemical weapons and biological weapons. So they have to identify, find it, turn it over, and it's gone. Third, I think there's four totals.

I hope I can remember all four. The third is it cannot be a launching point for other actors to attack them. whether it's Iran, Russia to extent, and also ISIS, right? So they have to be active in their efforts to make sure that there's no external attacks coming out of that. And the fourth is humanitarian assistance, right? So we're seeing this, you know, and I'm involved, you know, full disclosure, I'm involved in a lot of humanitarian operations my company is.

We're seeing humanitarian assistance be used as a weapon all over the place. groups are restricting, you know, food going to babies out of some idea that it's going to actually help them in their struggles, you know, their internal civil wars, etc. That has to be something that is addressed, and it's good that Secretary Blinken made that very clear. And the four things that whatever government comes out of this has to do, they have to allow unfettered humanitarian assistance to all people in need in Syria. So the other component, I think, that's fairly interesting is Israel took all the opportunity to essentially annihilate the Syrian military capacity. I think it's about 85% kaput. We're talking airfield, aircraft, naval vessels,

where they think the chemical weapons and biological weapons are. All their facilities have been just, I think, almost 350 strikes since maybe 400 now. So it is a country that's now almost leveled. leveled physically. They don't have a military capability. So it's going to take a lot of, and I understand why Israel did that. They didn't want these systems falling into the hands of disparate jihadist groups. But the international community, it's got to be more than an observation. It's got to be more than conferences in resorts and occupy. It's got to be we have to come up with a plan, support the government, and the people, more importantly, recover and become part of them. community of nations and that's going to take money just is yeah i would add to you know mixed

point about i noticed that the in the syrians either weren't invited or didn't send anyone and and it seems strange when you consider what charles lister was saying last week about how keen hds has been so far to establish international relations and to be recognized, you know, not just with Turkey. But on that point, so there were no Syrian representatives. And interestingly enough, the Turks sent someone, but it was not that foreign minister, right? So think about this. I mean, there are a few things happening overseas or beyond their borders that are more important than it's what is happening in Syria right now to Turkey.

And yet, you know, the United States sends Secretary of Defense, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iraq send their foreign ministers, right? The Secretary General of the Arab League is attending. And as Mick said, the United Nations is there too. And Turkey sends a lower level delegate. All right. So I'm wondering if perhaps Syrians not being there was in a question of them not being invited or even that they didn't want to be there.

I'm talking about HDS, but maybe they're getting. someone whispered in their ear that it wouldn't be a good idea, i.e. the Turks, okay, no, that's purely speculation. But I would add that, you know, if you look what's happening in the northeast of the country, you talked about it this a little bit last week. The Turks are pounding the SDF. They continue to do so. They call them the YPG, which is the People's Protection Unit. And they deliberately do that because the one of the ones. YPG is classified as, you know, is a clearly classified by the Turks as a terrorist organization. They claimed all along that the SDF is merely a cover for the YPG.

And then on, yet just yesterday, the Turkish foreign minister came on air in an interview with Turkish mainstream media and said, It's our strategic target to eliminate the YPG, right, i.e. the SDF. And he says something like the, hey, the entire command level of YPG should leave the country now. And basically anyone who doesn't is going to stop living. And he was very direct in that. Of course, I don't speak Turkish. I'm reading a translation. And, you know, at the same time, shut up, Richie.

At the same time, you know, the head of the SDF, Maslun, is accusing the United States of deserting the STF because the US has told the SDF has told Masloon to pull back all his forces to east of the Euphrates, right, to pull them out of Manbitch. And actually, it's a little unfair to accuse the US of betraying the SDF by asking them to do that. because that was based on a prior agreement with the Turks. But it is true that the, you know, obviously the U.S. administration concerned that the SDF is in existential danger because they're a former ally, a close ally, and enabled us, and that's an understatement to defeat ISIS.

But on the other hand, Maslun is, you know, let's face it, yes, he was our friend, is our friend, But he is a wanted terrorist to the Turks. And they are, you know, they're scenting blood right now. And they are holding the cards. And I think probably the next thing we have to look for is the fall of, or a Turkish attack on the Kurdish majority city of Kobani.

And by the way, it was an Islamic State attack on Kobani back in 2015. I think it was 2015 that started our whole partnership. with the Kurds when that city was under threat. So it's going to be interesting to see what happens if and when Turkey closes in on Kibani. But definitely they are after the SDF now. And who knows whether they intend to drive them all out of the country, as they said. I mean, if they do so, what our stance would be, the United States? We're caught in between here because we definitely need the Turks.

aside from the fact that a NATO ally, they have the Wasta in Syria. And this conference in Aquaba, whatever is decided is unlikely to carry a great deal of weight unless it's backed by the Turks and, of course, the Syrian interim government. Good point. And meanwhile, the Turks continue to back the SNA, which is, you know, as we discussed with Charles Lister, kind of a rag-tag group of different. Arab groups, but they do not have a great reputation when it comes to all the things that we've told the Syrian government to adhere to, you know, inclusiveness, recognition of human rights, all of that. That's not the SNA. They are, from our standpoint, U.S. standpoint, those who come into any contact with them, basically a bunch of criminals funded by Turkey. So if you're, you're, you're, the U.S.

you know, intelligence and state, what's your biggest concern? Is it Russia gaining influence again? Or is it like a counterterrorism concern? Is it ISIS? You know, because, you know, the HTS guy isn't exactly like a fucking freedom-loving guy. He was in our jails in Iraq for a while. You know. So what?

what yeah what's the u.s. is aim here obviously you want to see where it all settles like when the dust clears but what can the u.s. expect I would say Islamic State front and center is probably what the administration's most concerned about right now is a resurgence of the Islamic state I'm glad to see a pragmatic approach to the HDS

I know I may be in a minority here but I, you know, so my feeling is so what if he, you know, he spent time in our jail, so what if he's unwanted Paris in the past? We have to, you know, people change their spots. They're all pragmatists in this region, all right? It isn't like they live and die by prior loyalties, and we make the mistake all the time of mirror imaging that and assuming that they're all just Americans trying to struggling to be free. So Jalani will do what is in the best interest of the HTS. Maybe in the best interest of Syria.

That's kind of what we're hoping. And I think the administration wants to give him a chance. I think that's a good thing. But along with the stipulations that Mick laid down, we're going to be looking very closely on what happens to what the Islamic State is doing in the country. And yes, of course, influence of Iran. I would say influence of Iran, even higher than our concerns about influence about Russia simply because again we we this has been great news from from our standpoint in that the

kind of the land bridge from between Iran and Lebanon has been interrupted and that has Bala has been defeated and both in both in Lebanon and now in Syria this is all good news and we'd hate to see some kind of diplomatic agreement by which Iran is that really establishes influence in Syria. And then after that, of course, Russian influence. But, you know, to be as much as I think the Russians are adversarial, and they certainly are Russian influence in Syria is not as direct a threat to U.S. interests as are Iranian or the Islamic State. Just, I mean, just my opinion, of course, I'm not a spokesman for the U.S. government. Well, I do think ISIS is the primary concern, right? It was a big defeat, strategic defeat for Russia and Iran. And it goes to

what Andy was talking about before, right? So the SDF is our primary partner when it comes to not only the ensuring the enduring defeat of ISIS, but if it should ever resurface. Right. So we're going to have to, we've been doing this for years, but we're going to have to balance the Turkish issue with the need to maintain who is one of the best partner force operations we've had, period, right? So hats off. It's primarily an Army special operations effort. And my old crew played part of that too. But it's still there. And it's still doing what it's intended to do.

So that's the biggest concern. Whether HTS, I hear what Andy's saying, I wouldn't trust him. And I don't think we need to trust him. I think we can hold out the fact that they are currently a designated terrorist organization. And he's a designated terrorist over his head to make sure he does the right thing. Right. I'm not saying we don't deal with him, but he has an opportunity to do the right thing.

If he's truly just a Syrian nationalist now and not a, you know, international jihadist, then great. Prove it. Prove it. Just prove it. Like, we don't even need to just. It's going to be proven or not, right? We're going to find out the answer to the test question here. So, and I think that's a good thing to hold over his head, right?

If he truly wants to have a new start, he can do it right now. And I do think that's worth seeing if he does. But primarily, and that's the only authority we have to be there, by the way. I mean, I think you guys all know that. Like the U.S. military can't just go and occupy countries, but we don't like them. We're there because of the 2002 AUMF, right? Which you could debate, we could have a whole show on that. But that's why the U.S. military gets to be there, right?

Because ISIS is an offshoot of al-Qaeda. and this is the authorized use of military force against them. So the primary reason we're there is the reason we have authority to be there. Jay, you got anything? No, I'm learning. It's like such a mishmash for me, you know, just when I think I know the area, the region, they pull this and I have to learn. So I'm learning from these guys.

I mean, I think it's clear that like Jalani is angling. to at least be a new boss in Syria, right? And what do, I don't want to call him. I don't want to call him like an authoritarian yet. But like, what do guys like that want? They want to keep their ass in power, right? So it's like they're going to play ball. It's at least in some way, anyway, I would think, for his interests.

Yeah, I think, you know, I mean, we let it play out. But as Mick points out, we, you know, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, a big stick. I mean, and we're waving the carrots, but in the background as implicitly as the big stick. And of course, if we waive the big stick, we've got to be willing to use it, lessons of 2013 in Syria. The other thing that we haven't mentioned so far, which undoubtedly is a concern, are Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. You know, their possible interference by smuggling, weapons back into Syria and also threatening the garrison in Altaf, you know, with drone attacks. That, you know, those things are, I would imagine, are on Blinkin's mind during this conference

because Iraq sent its prime minister, again, this is how important this is to other countries, sent its prime minister to that. Oh, no, no, it wasn't in the conference. It was in Blinkin's Stop in Baghdad on the way to Aquabah. and who's the Prime Minister Sudani Blinken had said something along the line so look make sure

that you keep an eye on Iranian back militia and they don't try and take advantage of this situation and he got in the insurance from the Iraqi government that hey we you know we're not interested in anything beyond our borders which wasn't really an answer

but we'll see what happens there that is definitely a concern I mean what we haven't seen a lot of coverage about how these militias have reacted to the fall of Hezbollah and whether, you know, essentially they are the most powerful proxy in the region, arguably, simply because his Boller is going to be going through a very severe regeneration process right now. And so certainly that's something we should be giving an eye on. So I have a question. Given that Assad is not permanently gone, as in physically.

Is there a chance that he could make a comeback? Or is that probably just done? I would say not a chance in hell. I mean, look how his supporters have, they've not just melted away, but embrace the rebels. I mean, again, you know, when he was the strong man, people supported him out of fear. but there doesn't seem to be any sense of loyalty towards him or even regret that he's gone.

I mean, if you look at interviews with some of his former officials, they're like, yeah, we hated that guy. There's a new spot. So I don't know how, you know, and answer you a question, Jason, I don't, you know, I mean, even if the Russians had this scheme to put him back in, which I, you know, I just don't think they're that dumb, frankly. I don't see how they could possibly do it. There's no platform there for him anymore. And he was never. He's according to The Onion. He's running a lens craft.

Oh, yeah, yeah. He just opened one in downtown Moscow. I mean, his father, hafez, he was a military man, right? He was brutal. I mean, he killed 40,000 people on him off, for example. But he was a, he was the strong man, right?

Um, his son was supposed to take over who was a military man. not the ophthalmologist right so he can't when his son died in a car accident or something um they called him back i think they sent him they made him an honorary colonel or something to try to give him some kind of strongman credibility and then he started off saying well you should keep this in mind mostly the right things right he was going to open up syria it's going to be a new day in syria and then as soon as he got challenged he started killing people so um and i but you know as strong man goes he didn't have the creds he basically uh he basically just uh got forced into the rule

so i don't think he's he's uh has a chance to come back but i also it's another warning that you can't you have to see actions not words and see whoever takes over and see when they get challenged what they do yeah that's right i mean i think that's right on target make they you know interesting that you brought up a hammer so 1982 uh there was an uprising against assad's father and how much has a became a byword for

brutal suppression because an estimated 40,000 people were as Mick pointed out were killed there you know initially reports were 1,000 and 10,000, 20,000 now it appears

that 40,000 was nearer the mark so it was the most the highest casualty rate in in any suppression such in a single city in any kind of campaign in modern times until Gaza right I'm not going beyond that the next topic yeah yeah one thing I want to do bring up with in Syria Austin Tice journalist that's been jailed since 2012 escaped briefly in 2013 and has been is still missing.

What do you guys, what are you guys tracking on that? So, I mean, one thing I, I'm glad you brought up and put it on the list. There is an FBI, it's an aged photo, you know, maybe we can put that out, but people can put that out. Because, you know, now the world's all interconnected, right? So somebody walking around Syria that might have seen this guy, maybe he's still being held by somebody for some kind of, you know,

monetary gain or something, you know, we can't forget about this guy. He's not only an American, but he's a former Marine. Former Marine. Former Marine, that's right. Got it. Infantry officer, actually, I think. So we need to make sure that picture gets out there and that this guy, any American, not just former Marines that are Americans, but that we are keeping an eye on this. I know Roger Carstons and his team are doing every possible thing.

they can to get him back. If you don't know, Roger, former Special Forces officer and completely dedicated to this mission. But let's make sure that now there's, you know, there's questions he still in Syria. Was he actually taken somewhere? I don't know.

I don't want to start any speculation because I simply don't know. But the key is that the more information that's out there on him, the more likely somebody who may have seen him or know somebody that has them reports it to somebody that can do something about it. and whether that's an actual recovery operation or a negotiated, you know, through Rogers team, obviously would be better to be negotiated. It's safer for Austin, but let's make sure that we can spread the word and get that picture out there. I saw a story just before we came on that said, I don't know how true it is, but allegedly there's a guy that was held at the same time as him and said that as late as 2022, he saw him. He got a glimpse of him exercising or something like that.

So there's some hope. It's a little bit dated, but there's that hope. Yes, that's important. So he's likely still alive. I have one little question about Syria, going back to the, like the broader. Is there a world where, like, we partner with HTS to fight ISIS? We don't need them. Okay.

We don't need them. We have the partner that we've trained for years. It's very effective fighting force. And the SDF isn't all Kurds. I mean, there's, I know there's a little splintering going out. There's a sizable component of Arabs that was always under published for some reason, even though our military brethren always talked about it. But they are there by far the most effective at fighting.

Every time somebody said they were going to take over and do that for them, that's what Turkey told us, right? When I was in the Pentagon, they never did, right? So the SDF is a, and they live there, by the way. So I don't know where they're supposed to go. They're from Syria. So they are, they are like seamlessly integrated with U.S. military special operations, U.S. military in general, U.S. intelligence.

They are the ones we need to use to keep that going. Cool. Potential ceasefire in Gaza. Anything is that on the heart? horizon, hopefully? Renewed, renewed belief that something could actually happen. So I know we've talked about this over and over again,

but what seems to be different is the transition team, President Trump's transition team, has made it very clear that they want to see a ceasefire before they start January 20th. He has more influence, I think it's fair to say, over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is now said he is willing to essentially enter a ceasefire fire and it stopped the we have to have total victory before we have a ceasefire which even galant said was i think

he said gibberish right like what's total victory look like um and Hamas I think now understands that they are isolated you know hesbal is dismantled and has a ceasefire Assad's gone they even had issues with the kataris throwing you know throwing the leadership out of doha I think they're in the spot where they need a ceasefire. And they've come off the requirement that in order to have one, that the IDF has to withdraw. So the Adiaf can stay, I think, 60 days. I don't know what the current parameters are. They can stay in the Nazarene corridor, which divides the middle.

They can stay in the Rafa. I think it's Philadelphia corridor, Philadelphia corridor. So that is given a lot of the negotiators hope that they can actually get a ceasefire. if this goes into the Trump administration, Hamas is going to get even worse of a deal. And I think Prime Minister Netanyahu doesn't want to start his second relationship with Trump, not getting into a ceasefire,

which President Trump is, President-elect Trump has said is what he wants. I hope it happens, man, because it sounds like it's freaking devastating over there. And of course, the last little bit is South Korean president. We spoke about that with General June a couple days ago, great episode check it out if you have it um the south korean president eun has been impeached it's just the starting like process because mick you were talking about like what what what that process entails impeach for declaring martial law and trying to take over yeah so we were talking about it you guys

you guys don't talk to the general but uh it appears that so he's removed from his duties that's how they impeached because he was impeached and a 180 days to be tried in the constitutional courts. If he is convicted, then there's 60 days for them to choose a new prime minister. So, yeah, that's, then there's the facts. It's certainly not a good thing for the United States. That's such instability in a key partner like South Korea. I'm sure they can say the same thing every time we have impeachments.

But, you know, if you, I'm doing research for talking about this before, You got to look at the histories of all these. He's a president or prime minister? He's president, right? President, right. If you look at the history of the South Korean presidents, man, it never ends well. It's only one. He just went into retirement.

I saw that. I didn't know it was that unstable. So, you know, you could take umberance in that and say, well, this isn't actually that unusual. So I don't know if I would if I was South Korean, but it really is not, it really is kind of par for the course. I didn't know that until I was looking it up. It's almost like why would you want to be president? Yeah. Like the retirement life does not seem conducive to like having being, you know, having fun.

The general chun, by the way, again, I would recommend that episode. I mean, I was the career plans officer at Mar Four Pack, but I learned a ton from this guy and former head of South Korean Special Warfare Command. And despite the fact that he grew up in Brooklyn. speaks perfect English and really was I think one of our best guests that was good that was good I was good yeah he

he has some really interesting comments about the special warfare commands role in that attempted coup and also very interesting comments about the you know to mix point recent Korean history how turbulent it's been and how how this was such a milestone event

because there is part of the Korean constitution that allows for martial law should, should they go back to war in North Korea? And actually, they've never stopped being at war with North Korea technically. But, but, but, but, but you, so Yun activated that, but not under the circumstances under which it, it was authorized. But anyway, but yeah, I do urge people to go to, to, to, uh, not urge, but I recommend that, uh, that episode. It's terrific. Yeah, it was great. Um, that's it, boys.

That was nice. Yeah. It was awesome. We're going to do the, we're going to do the plugs now. Mick Mulroy, Fogbo, Longbow, all the links will be in the description. Doing great fucking work. If I, in my opinion, keep out it, Mick. Jason Lyons, Blue Sky.

Everything is down in the description. Andy Milburn, when the tempest gathers. Incredible memoir. The link is in the description there as long as, as well as a substack. Anything you guys need to know about these guys, it's in the description. Click those links because I had a comment a couple days ago. It's like, I can't find a way to support the show or I can't find links for Jason, Mick, or Andy, which they're literally in the description.

They're right under us. If you're watching us, it's like right there. Just go right there. And it's also in the audio show notes for whether you're listening to us on Apple or Spotify or any of the other podcatchers. And the best way to support is patreon.com slash the teamhouse. And a little quick shout out to our boy, Jack Murphy, our fearless leader. New book is out. We Defy the Lost Chapters of Special Forces History.

It's available on Amazon, digitally and paperback. Check it out. Awesome. Anything else, boys? No. This is great. Thank you. Thanks, everybody.

It was awesome. Good.