The Team House - Is France Sending Troops Into Ukraine? | EYES ON | Ep. 14

Episode Date: March 21, 2024

Support the show here:https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouseToday we talk about the rhetoric being thrown around between France and Russia and the possibility of France sending in troops to Ukraine.Find Andy here:Twitterhttps://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8LinkedInhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023Substackhttps://amilburn.substack.com/Andy's bookhttps://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations/dp/1526750554#france #russia #ukraineBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support.

Hey guys, it's Jack. I just wanted to talk to you today about a way that you can help support the podcast if you're not already. We would really appreciate it if you guys went and reviewed us on Apple or Spotify. Those reviews really help people find the podcast and help it get recognized. And, you know, if you've been enjoying the show, we really appreciate your support. Another thing that you can do to support the channel is to become a Patreon member. So we have Patreon memberships that start at just $5 a month. and when you sign up, you get access to all of our episodes ad-free. That's the big bonus for that.

I mean, we also do some Patreon bonus episodes for our subscribers. But this is the biggest and best way that you can support the Teamhouse channel and podcast if you'd like to. And we really appreciate that. So go and check us out at patreon.com slash the team house. Hello. Welcome to another episode of Ais-Zahn. I'm Andy Milder. Jason Lyons.

Hey guys, I'm Dee. I'm the producer of the team house and Izon. Very excited today. We have, what I wanted to talk about today was what's going on with France and Macron and Putin. So we were talking before we started recording.

And I think the main thing was, last week, McCroon had his state of the union or whatever that equivalent is in France. And, you know, he mentioned like, it's not. out of the realm of possibility of sending troops to Ukraine. And since then, the Russians came out and said that they are preparing to send about 2,000 troops into Ukraine.

The Frencha. The Frencha, correct. Yeah. And France came out and said, no, that's disinformation. But then chief of staff of the army in France said that, no, we're preparing for all eventualities. And I kind of want to get a sense of what you guys think, like what happens next. like obviously 2,000 troops, even if they're perfect, won't like, you know, well-trained and amazing, won't really move the needle.

Perfect. They're French. Yeah, but they got some. They got some game. They will at least be perfectly trans. Do they have a style? They got style. They all, they will die handsome.

Yeah, you know, I, here's a couple of thoughts on this. The 2000 troops piece is, frankly, a, um, frankly, a, a mystery because, you know, the French are too much of an adult nation, you mean, as opposed to Russia, to deny something that is being planned. If they're planning to move 2,000 troops anywhere, then, you know, they would at least qualify their statements saying, no, these guys are not going to Russia. But, you know, they've simply, you know, they've denied it. I doubt very much there is something in that. I think, you know, what we're seeing at play here is, first of all, you know, the Russians, Putin's playing to geopolitics because he knows that Macron's counterparts, whether they personally like him or this like him,

know that he can be a little bit fickle when he is playing to a domestic audience. And they want to sow some doubt among other NATO members. And I think you have to understand the relationship between France and the rest of NATO. Some of the background here, remember France for the longest time was not part of the military alliance and has always kind of played its own game to include in the nuclear side. No one knows what the French nuclear plans are. They, you know, retain strict control without any collaboration with others. So, you know, I would say this.

you've got two leaders playing two politics. One is, you know, Putin's case, international politics and Macron, very much domestic politics. Remember what's happening at home in the upcoming elections. Who's opposing him? Who has the largest number of votes? I have you guys know right now in France. I don't. Yeah.

Yeah. It's the national front, Marie LaPine, right? Who's about his right wing as they come. In fact, her father was about. anti-Semitic and an apologist at times, no, or at all times for the Vichy administration, which was the collaboration, the French administration who collaborated with the Germans during the Second World War. So, you know, you've got him opposing this person with this legacy of, you know, anti-immigration and who is behind the scenes.

I mean, there has been some collaboration between the Russians and the National, you know, the French National Front, or at least accusations here of, I say, desperately trying to shield us from a lawsuit here. So Macron is, and the National Front in France is gaining momentum. in the face of a lot of the rioting and violence there. I believe they've got, you know, looking at 20 to 30% of votes in the French parliament, Senate.

Someone's going to butcher me for this. But anyway, they, their number of seats they've had. So Macron is worried about this, and he wants to put a fault line between himself and Le Pen at home, and that fault line is where the French domestic population stands on Russia, right? And most part the population is anti-Russia, of course, and Macron is playing to that. Now, that's a cynical view to explain why Macron is probably the right view. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, let's, you know, geopolitics, France. You know, perhaps he has

had a Damascusian revelation here that Putin is indeed. to a threat to regional security, severe threat to regional security, and that France will join ranks with Poland and the Baltic states who are kind of in the, and the UK. I mean, let's just say that again. France join hands with blah, blah, and the UK.

This is a very unusual moment in both countries' histories, but behind Ukraine. Because you're seeing, I mean, you have done from the start, but I think 2024 is going to speed the year where you see this wide divergence, wider divergence within NATO, between the kind of, you know, the peace necks or those who want to, you know, can we call, we all be friends and, you know, hey, let's have a frozen conflict.

I mean, you name it, most of the southern European countries, Germany on the fence, France, who knows, Macron wants to take France now firmly into the Ukrainian can, which is more and more important now as the United, as US support for Ukraine falters. That's just, so, no, I think he's playing to domestic politics. And I think some of the less vocal nations like Finland are using this opportunity to step up and throw their hat in the ring, along with this story, the foreign minister of Finland,

Alina Boltonan, she stated that Western nations, should be prepared to deploy troops in the Ukraine if things, if the situation works. And along with that, as a, I guess, a gesture along with that statement, it was reported that Finland is donating warships to the Ukraine. How many and what type is not known, unless you guys know that. And it'll include training Ukrainian personnel on the use of them. So, I mean, I think while this may be a rumor as far as France is concerned with the 2000 troops, I think it's on one side, on Western side, giving smaller nations or those less vocal a chance to step up and say, well, yeah, you know, maybe it's a rumor, but we need to be ready, right guys? And also on the Russian side, it's a chance for them to use France as that springboard, that warning to other nations. You know, if it is true, just know that we're going to target you. The foreign minister, the rest of foreign minister said they will be, French troops will become a target for the Russian. military. And it's kind of like, duh, yeah. But I think that's a way of them to throw that

message out there. Tell the rest of your people that if you step foot in here, that it's on. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, that's a great point. Yeah, using France as kind of an example, a tripwire. Yeah. And that's also a great point about the smaller countries within NATO banding together. It's kind of a sub-regional pact in the face of Russian aggression. And those are the countries with most skin in the game. Finland and Sweden, both with borders with Russia, now NATO's newest most member. And Sweden, making a firm jump from being a neutral country now to being, if not one of the most bellicose, but certainly one of the most concerned within NATO.

So that's all good news. I've had Finland and Sweden coming on board. Yeah. And I think, though, it's worrisome for them, too, because they're jumping in at a time when, like you said, the U.S. is faltering. So it's kind of like, well, wait a minute. We got into NATO so that we're, you know, we can protect each other.

You know, I'm sure that in the back of their minds, it's like, well, if the U.S. is faltering on Ukraine, what are they going to do if Russia makes a move on us, you know? Yeah. Yeah. It's going to be. It's going to be very interesting. I think 2024 is going to be a, you know, everyone says this about every year, I suppose, a decisive year. But it's certainly going to be a decisive year as far as U.S. leadership in Europe.

You know, as far as, I mean, the direction of our own elections, where that takes us vis-a-vis support for NATO. You know, one side, very continued staunch, traditional support for, for a U.S. European alliance that's actually paid huge dividends for us in our past. And those who think it hasn't really just haven't paid attention to history and shows kind of where I lie. Or, you know, on the other side, just an isolationist policy of, you know, hey, any alliance is a waste of money. And by the way, you know, that NATO countries are stepping up to the plate.

I believe, you know, only 11 right now paid the 2% requirement. But you know what? Three years ago, it was three countries. So you can see this increase. And speaking at the Terrence, I got to go and shoot Richie. I hear him turning over my trash. So we'll go out me right back. So, yeah, you know, going, expanding a little bit more on what Andy was saying,

we are seeing that uptake in a uptick in NATO members paying their fair share. So it's it kind of skews the argument on the other side about, you know, pulling out and, you know, remaining isolationists, which I can understand that, I can understand that argument because prior to Ukraine, we're not really seeing the bang for the buck. There hasn't been this before a Ukraine situation where, NATO has really had to step up and really put their money where their mouth it is. But now more and more it's becoming more of a reality where we're going to have to. We haven't actually had to all in.

NATO hasn't had to all in. But we're right at that precipice where we may need to. So as Andy was saying, this year and this election particular in the United States is going to be key. So, yeah, Russia is they have their own issues going on. They just replaced their, the commander-in-chief of their Navy. I can't remember the outgoing one's name, but he was replaced by an admiral name Alexander Moiseev. He was a former submariner, staunch Russian loyalist.

And he was bought in because reports are saying that Russia's lost a third of their fleet. And, you know, that's a big number. A third of your fleet and you don't need, and Ukraine doesn't even have a Navy. It doesn't even have a Navy. Yeah. Black Sea Fleet. Yeah. Black Sea Fleet. Yep.

And so they've got their own issues going on. And then I was reading in my studies that their oil and natural gas fields are insanely vulnerable. And so they're trying to bolster their air defense around those things because I read a statistic that said up to 6,000 barrels a day are lost in attacks from. Ukrainian forces. So that's a huge, huge hit they're taking. So while we're working to shore up NATO, you know, Russia's got its own issues going on. So yeah, it's been crazy. Yeah, there's some, as Dee would say, some gnarly video out there on, what's it called, Warthog Defense? Anyway, it doesn't matter. Oh, Warthog. Yeah, Warthog. Yeah, pretty good. But it's, anyway, it's of, it's of Adivka after the fall, taken from perspective of Russian looters.

But more importantly, it just shows, you know, I mean, it's been a year since I was there and the place was flattened. And so you can imagine now, after a year, that same area, just incredible devastation there. It's absolutely extraordinary. And as like a layman, I would say like, you know, Putin's whole, one of Putin's big reasons as to why he went into Ukraine was to stop the expansion of NATO, right? Like that's like my friends, you know, who are anti this or whatever, anti, you know, the war in Ukraine always tell me about like, oh, yeah, he went in to like stop Ukraine going into NATO. I'm like, he done. And he strengthened NATO beyond its wildest.

That's what I would say. Like, they added more countries to NATO that boy. Border Russia. Yeah, forced. I mean, drove Finland and Sweden as, you know, who jumped into a brace, NATO, drove the every member's capacity or appetite for defense spending up. You know, the Czech Republic just announced that they've, you know, the Czech Republic has never been bellicose.

And they've just announced that they're going to be spending above 2% GDP coming on. So that's 11th or 12. So yeah, Putin has done great things for NATO. And by the way, too, and this is lost, I think, in some of the static about people's concern about money, taxpayers' money. You know, I'm laughing because these voices out there who just go on and on about how we're getting ripped off financially by the rest of the world, don't look at the alternative, which is U.S. lives on the line instead of money. You know, I mean, it's, we don't, we don't get to avoid both of those, right, if we want regional stability.

And we don't achieve regional stability by hiding within the shores. I mean, that's such an antiquated approach. I mean, that was an antiquated approach in 1941. And yet we still have people thinking that we can just sit here at home and the world won't trouble us, you know. But anyway, I mean, my, that's my point that, that this is. being a golden, this is being a crown jewel for NATO. I'm talking about the war in Ukraine. I'm not, you know, obviously, obviously I'm not

back in the invasion, but I'm saying he has played right into NATO's hands. And by the way, a trited the Russian military in a way that we just couldn't imagine in a conventional conflict over the period of two you know over two years now the the the russian military yes it's become stronger and adapted in some ways but it has been a frighted um beyond imagination so it's been the most conservative estimates you know have at around 45 50 000 dead russians and you multiply 10 that 10 times that for most conservative estimates some people think it's it's twice then I was going to say something.

God damn it. No, so going back to the, what if, you know, France landed 2,000 troops in Ukraine, which is probably not going to happen, highly unlikely anyway. I mean, well, it depends how it, how it's done, right? This is all about, this is all about presentation and posturing and attribution. It's all about play. know, in the same way, remember we talked about the Shahid drone that hit Tower 22 and the U.S. not wanting to say, yes, it was made in Iran, if, you know, if that was the case.

It's, you know, this is kind of the same thing. The United Kingdom has had soldiers in Ukraine now for coming on, I mean, well, I mean, a year and a half. Yeah, 18 months. special operations guys doing certain things. It's kind of an open secret. But it's below the radar. The UK doesn't announce it. The Russians undoubtedly know that they are there.

But it's not out in the public forums, so no one's threatening war against the UK. You see what I'm saying? It would put both Russia in the UK. So here, because Russia's now, Putin's saying, no, I'll do this and that. It's because, yeah, if you're stupid enough to say, hey, I'm going to send $2,000. Of course, Putin's going to say that, all right?

But everyone knows the way this game is played, you can do other stuff under the radar, and it's not going to get attributed because your adversary doesn't want to be put in that position with his domestic public, where now he has to escalate to war. I'd love to know, like, how that all gets coordinated, because, yeah, like you said, there's UK Special Forces in there and, I'm sure there are French special forces in there or even like, you know, French intelligence. There's got to be like a smorgasbord of intelligence and military advisors, whatever, in there. Who coordinates it? What goes down?

Yeah, I mean, that's great. You know, that's great. The bottom line is I'm sure what you know is based on some Jack's writings, there's coordination with the NATO countries. And then there's a subgroup who may be doing really ultra-secrettes. stuff maybe and they coordinate just directly with them and then there may be unilateral stuff going on and on that note i would be surprised if france is doing anything in ukraine uh because you know it's got a small it's got a very capable intelligence service and jason knows more about this and you know the duxien what's it called duxien bureau uh very capable uh but but eastern europe

just isn't their bag baby they are very focused on the middle east and Africa, Africa really is their thing. And, you know, keeping threats at an arm's length from the homeland. And so from their perspective, there are far larger, far more capable intelligence agencies focused on Ukraine and the Russian threat. So they don't need, and they will share openly with the French, so there's no need to. The French, I mean, in Iraq, when I was out there with a siege of soda, the French had something going on, which they, you know, was kind of an open secret among

soft, but they didn't openly share, which was they were going there to whack French citizens. That was the mission of their Tier 1 unit in northern Iraq. It wasn't, you know, trained, advise and assist and help, you know, I mean, support. it was go after and kill French citizens who had joined ISIS. And in a way that brought it home, that, you know, not a drone strike, but being shot between the eyes. Yeah. And getting that message out, you know, so that French citizens on the other side of the

plot knew that that was a French team on our side who didn't give a sense. shit about anything else except going after them. It was a very interesting, psychological. You know, it made me realize, yeah, it scared, it scared the enemy in a way that drone strikes did not. No, no human beings every night hunting for them.

Clever, yeah. What was that like to manage, Andy? I, no doubt. They were nothing. Oh, really? They were very, yeah, they were nothing to do with me. It was, it was a fucking nightmare because they would come back. They claimed they had coordinated forward passage of lives, rear, passengers,

lines but they would come back through the Kurdish lines and there was nearly well there was a blue on blue fortunately no one heard one night and that's how we started to unpack all this shit by saying hey you if you fuckers are doing things out there it would be nice to know because you know we're bringing fires in here and people will you might mistake you for the enemy oh do you too long how many uh i wonder how many uh complaints we're going to get for that but why you spoke you spoke about this on a previous team house i remember yeah it was just we're very desolate yeah so i'm uh was reading a little bit about these russian volunteer forces in ukraine and andy i wanted to see if you could speak to that a little bit i honestly didn't know anything about them or much about them until the last

couple of weeks with these videos that are being shown and apparently, allegedly, they made an incursion into Russia to attack targets. Russia is refuting those claims, but do you know anything about them? I, so beginning with the latest alleged ground attack, Wall Street Journal's released pretty convincing. I think it was a Wall Street Journal's pretty convincing video of it. And the key part about this, you know, it wasn't drone strikes and everything. It was a ground-launched attack apparently from Ukrainian territory into Russian territory to Belgrade. And there's this footage of this armed group moving into the town, being greeted, taking down Russian flags, putting up their own and making announcements. And, you know, it looks like, I mean, probably a small force.

It was kind of almost a token gesture. But at the same time, it's significant in the same way that, you know, when the Wagner group was stirring up trouble, it was significant. But no. So here's all I know. Or and maybe some of what I'm saying I know is not true. I'm happy to say that. But what I do know is that there's three groups for sure.

that are working for the GUR or fall under the auspices of the GUR. So are taking direction from the Ukrainians. The GUR is there in military intelligence, the directorate. You've heard me mention Budenov, who's there a WISKid head. He's 39 years old. He's been directing a lot of the behind-the-scenes operations against, I mean, behind the lines of operations against Russians. And this is one of his lines of effort.

Our Russian volunteers and the Ukrainians and the reason why they hold them under intelligence and they haven't just pulled them under the C2 of the armed forces is that they're very wary about being seen to support the wrong type of people. And there are groups out there that look something like neo-Nazis and the last thing that the Ukrainians won, And with the Russian narrative of them being Nazis is to side with Russian groups that are far right wing.

You know, this is all kind of strange because most people would think you cannot get further right wing of Putin, right? But it's a topsy-terpsi world. Anyway, that's, you know, as far as real damage, I mean token. Yeah. But it is the site of the Russian flag being hauled down on Russian territory and Russian civilians cheering that is likely to really concern Putin. You know, because he's paranoid anyway. They've also derailed a couple of trains, blown up fuel trucks. So they are getting direction certainly to hit Russian logistics support.

It is an all token. And in that sense, their efforts had been integrated with Ukrainian special operations to some extent. Gotcha. Yeah, the stories that I've been reading, I just watched a video before we started shooting, said that Russian intelligence has been, especially military intelligence, has been tasked with finding these folks and first naming them so they can publicly shame them and then eliminating them. So I guess it's kind of like, like you said, with France and Russia, it's more of a warning to others. This is what you get, you know, kind of thing. So it's pretty.

Yeah, this, I mean, collaborators on your own side, especially in this war, where they're both speaking the same language is, it is particularly emotional, emotional issue. And it has been from the beginning of the war when I was in Kiev. and we were having to change ranges every day or so because we were getting targeted by artillery. And that artillery was being brought down on us. The only way it could have been spotted because there weren't Russian drones overhead at that point in Kiev was by collaborators. Locke was calling an artillery fire. So, you know, it's a real issue on both sides. Ukrainians have gone after Allah Mossad.

They've gone after collaborators within the Ogbai territories, some pretty inventive methods of knocking them off. And by the way, some of you tracked to the Russian submarine commander who was shot while jogging in his base hometown deep within Russia. And he was responsible. His submarine was among the ones that lawn. the cruise missiles at Kiev. So they, you know, they tracked him down that far.

So it is, you know, I mean, the, it's a contrast to the attritional slog fest on the front is some very innovative and effective resistance being organized by Budinov. The last thing I'll say on this is the one thing. thing about resistance. Okay, and it may be because your, you know, unconventional warfare, it may be because it is sexy. It may be because, or it sounds sexy, it may be because Army Green Berets tie the whole legacy, the refus to it, that we tend, we collectively exaggerate its effectiveness. Everyone exaggerates its effectiveness when it's working for you.

Isn't that part of it? You look back, maybe, yeah. I mean, look back at the Second World War, exactly. to some extent, the strategic messaging to your adversary that he is not safe in his rare areas. No need for some crass jokes there, Dee. But that, you know, that feeling is, a lot of it is psychological, and it causes him to involve a significant number of resources, a disproportionate number of his combat power,

not on the front, but to handle this type of thing in his, in this rear plus the psychological effect of civilians, etc, etc. It has exponential effects, if done correctly. However, you know, in the Seque War, you're going to hate me for saying this, but they've done studies of resistance in the Seq War. For the most part, it was counterproductive and ineffective. Yes, I know I've seen all the movies, but, you know, my point is, take case in point, you know, the biggest success boasted by,

One of the biggest success is the biggest was the destruction of the heavy water plant, German heavy water plant at Telemark in Norway. But one of the others was the assassination of General Hydra, Lieutenant General Hydric, who is regional commander of the SS. He was killed actually in Checks of Arcip by local resistance. Tremendous blow against the Germans. but what did they do? They just, they wiped out thousands of people in that area.

And, you know, the Czech population still remembers that, right? You know, long after the effects of Hydrax death have affected the Vermont. So, you know, there's a downside to resistance, and that is your adversary controls everything. And that makes it very difficult to be effective. And often you have to wait for one of two tipping points. One is when, you know, the adversary tips a point as far as just pissing off the local population. But the other all important is where the fear hatred fulcrum, right? You know, it goes from they stop fearing.

Their hatred of the enemy. How do you say, yeah, their fear. And so, you know, to my point, that point is probably being hit, some Russians. You know, they figure, hey, this country is on such a downhill slide. You know, out of the job, I'm facing prospect of being conscripted anyway to fight for Putin. So I may as well, I may as well pick up a rifle and do this now. And if worse comes to worse, I can defect to Ukraine. and have a pretty decent life.

So there's pragmatic reasons for these guys doing this. I'm sure it's not all ideological. No one acts purely out of ideological for ideological means unless they have seriously, seriously ill. Yeah. One last thing for me before I got to bounce. I saw, speaking of transcription, that Russian contract servicemen are now being exempted. from criminal liability. Go figure.

You know, so if they commit... I mean, just a blanket exemption? Yeah, for now. It's a, yeah, it's a temporary contract for those who are already in prison for crimes. If they agree to sign this service contract, it will be temporarily on hold until, you know, depending on how things go. And for new conscripts, they're being told you're not criminally. reliable for whatever you do.

So, yeah, that's really interesting. I'm not, it sounds again, it's a reminder of kind of seventh group recruiting methods, you know, I mean, if you speak Spanish, we'll overlook whatever else comes up, you know. All right, on that note. Dee, any closing comments? No, that was great. I enjoyed it. I want everyone, everyone who listens to this or watches this to like and subscribe.

if you're listening to us on the audio platforms, rate and review is five stars. It's big for us. Check out Andy's substack. Check out Andy's Twitter. All the links will be in the description. And of course, check out our Patreon. Patreon.com slash the Teamhouse.

Please buy my book. And, oh, Andy's book will be in the description as well. It's great. When the Chippus gathers, it just won the Eugene Sledge, Eugene Percy Sledge award. Marincol Heritage Foundation Yeah

I sort of I was stumbling a little bit there I was just amazed that the Marine Corps had had accepted the book

into the fall congratulations yeah that's great the link I didn't plan to plug that but no it's fine your book

is actually one of the three books I've read in my life so that's awesome or had to read to you let's be specific it's it's Andy's

it's book when the tempest gathers and it's Jack's book because Jack made me do it like when I started working there. Yeah, you know, I have a horrible feeling that you're not, you're not joking. Let's wrap up at this point. All right, everyone. Thanks very much. Yeah, absolutely.

Please like, subscribe. Tell your friends, forward this freely. Thanks, everyone. Bye.