The Team House - Israel's Preemptive Strike on Hezbollah Targets & Kursk Incursion | EYES ON | Ep. 37

Episode Date: August 27, 2024

Support the show on Patreon:⬇️https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouseToday we talk about the ongoing Kursk Incursion and a new jet powered drone being deployed in Ukraine and we also get deep into the Israeli strike on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.Find Andy Milburn here:⬇️Twitterhttps://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8LinkedInhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023Substackhttps://amilburn.substack.com/Andy's bookhttps://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-OperationsBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support.

Hey guys, it's Jack. I just wanted to talk to you today about a way that you can help support the podcast if you're not already. To support the channel is to become a Patreon member. So we have Patreon memberships that start at just $5 a month. And when you sign up, you get access to all of our episodes ad free. That's the big bonus for that. I mean, we also do some Patreon bonus episodes for our subscribers. But this is the biggest and best way that you can support the Team House. channel and podcast if you'd like to and we really appreciate that so go it and check us out at patreon.com slash the team house hello welcome to another episode of iZong i'm andy mobs i'm jason i'm jason liens i'm dmitri contacos dmitri andy we want to talk about today i mean the big stuff that's in the news first and foremost is the preemptive strike uh israel took on hesbola to avoid a larger attack. Yeah, absolutely. So here's what we know,

although, you know, Aizan stays clear of being on the cusp of breaking news. We're more of an opinion pundits, right? But we are kind of on the cusp of breaking news here, as we were when the Iranians hit Israel back in April. But what it looks like, if I was a betting man, I would say everything is pointing towards the escalation.

I'll come back and explain what I mean by that. And I'm open to challenges. But just by way of background, this morning, the Israelis launched two ways of airborne. Sorry, not airborne, of bombing attacks using fixed-wing aircraft. the first they struck four compounds, Hezbollah compounds, and I think we can assume that these were weapons storage places or either places where there were a significant number of weapons, but more likely a storage, but not C2 nodes, quite interesting, okay?

And I'm going to come back to that, because it doesn't look as though Israel really went after Hispola's infrastructure and went after circling its ability to launch rockets from an area within 30 miles of the Israeli border. But these strikes were quite limited, even though you will see the Israeli spokesmen saying quite rightly, you know, hey, listen, we struck thousands of rocket launch sites. Well, what does that mean in practice? I'm not, hey, listen, this was a big strike. Don't get me wrong.

And undoubtedly, it preempted a large Hezbollah strike. It was good work, evidently by Israeli intelligence, good coordination targeting with the Air Force in an area that they are very used to targeting, which is Lebanon. But what I'm saying now is that the honor has been done by both sides and now both sides. By that I mean, specifically Netanyahu, but also, you know, the IDF too, but there are facts. factors, factions within Netanyahu's government who don't want to walk that line. They don't care about plunging the risk of regional war. They think that the only solution is to invade Lebanon, right? For now, Netanyahu is not on that.

It doesn't seem to be representing them. And for instance, he has, he's in his own wording today. He's kind of being almost the escalatory while issuing a very stern warning. Okay. So it looks as though, I mean, the attack that, let's step back, okay, the attack that has been, right, it may have been, yes, certainly they didn't want to tip the scales into regional war. They were all directed at military targets, but it was going to be a significant blow, you know, 11 different bases to include, by the way, the Mossad headquarters, and Clearlott base in Herzlir, which is a poorly kept secret. And, you know, that's where actually the Israelis

keep all of their, you know, a lot of their intelligence agencies, unit 82002, which is their, you know, their signals intelligence unit from within the military. Well, his bullet targeted both those locations, apparently, fortunately, those missiles were either intercepted or, or foiled. So, So while almost simultaneous to these attacks on the immediate aftermath, all right, of the first wave, has Bala launched an estimated 320 rockets. All right. That seems a pretty exact estimation. Most of these, you know, short to short to mid-range. Unclear at this stage, what damage was caused. We do know of casual, there was at least once a civilian casualty in Haifa. And the Israelis have reported that a sergeant, first class,

this may seem a little strange to Americanaires, was killed. And he's actually a sailor. He was killed aboard a ship. So we don't know if there was a drone attack or what from Esbalah. But the bottom line is a very low number of casualties on the Israeli side. The attack has a been foiled. But what is interesting is kind of the aftermath to this. And I'll pause there for a moment,

because I see you scribbling and I don't know if you're writing. No, no. Off air and fire him or... No, no, I'm listening intently. So, you know, I'm speculating here, but this from both sides is probably the best

possible outcome to prevent you know, at this stage, Hezbollah doesn't want to tip the balance into full-scale regional war without Iran saying that's what Iran wants to happen and Iran hasn't signaled that yet, right? Iran is telling the world because, remember, it still has an open account

with Israel for the murder of... I'm sorry, the assassination. In its words, the murder of Hania, who was the head of political head of... Hamas who was killed in Tehran a few weeks ago. Okay. But Iran has kind of been, while beating its chest as usual about retaliation, has said that it will meter, it didn't use that time,

but it will gauge its retaliation looking at what is happening at these talks in Cairo. So both Hezbollah and Iran now are saying much hinges on these talks, which, by the way, are kicking, are still going. underway right now. The, you know, the, Nasrallah just spoke a few hours ago, the usual kind of bombast, but at the same time, you know,

he's saying, hey, for now we have finished, you know, we have accomplished our mission in retaliating for the death of Shuka, right, who was killed along within a few hours of Hania. a few weeks ago. The Israelis claimed responsibility for killing Shuka,

but not for Hania, you know, for reasons, probably good reasons, no and only to them. If indeed they were behind Hennia's assassination. In any case, so Hizbullah has kind of chalked the slate evenly,

wipe the slate clean, as for a Tony for the death of Hinead, I mean, for the death of Shaka, in its own, perhaps in its own eyes. And, you know, for Israel's part, Galat, who's their defense minister, told U.S. defense minister, you know, within hours after the strike, that he was, that he and the Israeli government were very sensitive to de-escalating and avoiding regional war. All right. Take that as you will. But that's what, you know, that is what. what the government is saying. I'll pause that for a moment. Andy, how much do you believe that the US presence, heightened presence there in the last couple of weeks,

has played a part in both the preemptive strike and the measured response from Hezbollah? For the first part, that's a really good question. If you mean, has US presence there kind of emboldened the Israelis to take the strike. I don't know. I'm speculating, but I would guess not. The Israelis, you know, have a history of taking preemptive strikes sometimes without

even coordinating with the U.S. You know, they kind of just rely on that. And I think, but let me, the other part of that, though, there is one very important caveat. If we're talking just missile defense capability, defense, capability. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, it would, I can't see, that would have been a very tough decision for the Israelis to go ahead and take that. And not obviously, as we know, because of a threat from Osbalah, but because of a threat from Iran, which is the real fear that everyone has.

That's, you know, that's the real wild card there. But yeah, that's, I mean, that's, that's, that's a great question. but for now things seem to be you know relatively quiet however on on the israeli side there are considerable internal tensions right i mean as i've said for the time being nathania who seems to be planting his feet in the camp of those who want to you know who don't want to who want to perhaps avoid going to war now in Lebanon notes, I say now because there are certainly a higher percentage of Israelis, and it isn't just on the right who think that war is inevitable,

but maybe not now, not while Gaza is kind of still continuing, all right? And the reason why there is a strong impetus within Israel to do that is simply because estimates vary, but somewhere between, you know, 40 and 70,000 Israelis are still displaced. They can no longer live near the border because of the threat of missile rocket and missile attack. And so the Israelis see that as a violation, many Israelis, perhaps most see that as a violation of their sovereignty as is. I mean, they can't live in their own country. I'm paraphrasing what they're saying. So they are already at war with Hezbollah. And Hezbollah, and Hezbollah, would of course say they're already at war with Israel.

It's, you know, this is Mormon. But both sides are aware of the rules of the game. We talked about this. And in the aftermath of a strike that just happened, and I don't know this firsthand, but in the aftermath, there is a direct line of communication between Israeli IDF intelligence and Hezbollah.

as strange as that may seem to kind of, to put in context things that have happened. You know, that sounds crazy, right? It sounds like a kid's game. Hey, dude, here's why we took three pieces off your game, bored because you did this. But, you know, notice we've let your city alone. I mean, but it is kind of that. It's saying, here's why we did this, just so you know, but we haven't struck Beirut. We haven't struck the Becker Valley.

All right. We could any time we want and we could destroy your infrastructure. But we didn't because we want to avoid escalation. We suggest that you do the same. And for Nasrallah's part, as I've said, you know, he's going to win some face by claiming more damage than those 320 rockets caused. But at the same time, he is going to do, you know, by saying that, he's going to say, okay, for the time being we're done.

And he's going to put the responsibility on Iran publicly to make. the next move. There's one wild card here. That is the Houthis, obviously, I mean, I say obviously, because of course the Houthis, right, who have entered stage left saying that, hey, by the way, they're going to strike Israel again. And whether they do, you know, whether what happens and whether Israel response really depends. If you look at this on where an Israel adversary strike, Okay, this may be a code. You know, obviously, I'm sure I'm not the one who's noticed this. But if you hit Tel Aviv, there's going to be a response, right?

If you stay clear of Tel Aviv and only hit military targets, there's still going to be a response, but it's going to be far less. And in the Houthis case, there may be no response at all. You know, I'll give you no example, right? I mean, the Houthis flew more than one drone into a lot, right? causing casualties, but it took them flying one into Tel Aviv, into the capital, and killing someone for the Israelis to go and bomb Hedah. But why is that important?

Because Hezbollah understands that that's part of the game. And you'll notice that none of these missiles targeted civilian infrastructure in Tel Aviv. The nearest targets were, as I mentioned, you know, the Lillot. base in Herzlir, which is a very nice part of Herzlir, I suppose. That's a downside, though, of living there is so close to so much of Israel's intelligence infrastructure. They've got to live well, these intel guys. Yeah, I wonder what the goalposts are as far as all this is concerned for both Israel

and Hezbo. It's like, okay, we have these measured, we have the preemptive strikes, these measured response. But for those people who've been displaced, it's like, okay, you guys are doing this back and forth. When the hell do I get to go home? And what, you know, if, if Hezboa says, okay, we're done. We're going to stop shooting rockets. But Israel says, well, too fucking bad, we're going to, you know, keep smacking you. It seems like these people are never going to get home.

So I wonder what the goalpost is for that. Yeah, I mean, that that's a great question. I think that that's where. Hisbola has the edge because of its obligation or lack of obligation to civilian population, right? So in the end, Nasrallah doesn't give a shit about Lebanon. He gives a shit about his organization, Hezbollah. He doesn't want Lebanon to be ruined simply because it's a haven for Hisbola, but he doesn't care about the population there,

and he doesn't care if they've been displaced or they continue to be hit by, you know, Israeli airstrikes. when it comes down to it. He wants to, you know, be seen to care. But the Israelis, you know, and again, this is just, I mean, I think stating facts, a little trickier in a democratic. I mean, yes, Lebanon's democratic, but the Hezbollah's hold on Lebanon is not democratic, right? But little trickier than when you have a democratic government beholden to its citizens

trying to justify why a sizable portion of that population cannot live in that part of the country. You know, surprisingly, Netanyahu is not, again, this is just, I think just an objective statement, but Netanyahu is not actually a hawk by background, all right? And some might say because he's a political survivor and wars bring an end to political careers. But here he's trying to walk, so it's not because he's necessarily a pacifist, but in this particular case, he is trying to walk a line between those who are calling for all-out war now and those who are urging caution, you know, at least until the IDF has had a chance to regroup and recover from Gaza, which it hasn't done so yet.

And I think that's an issue that doesn't really get stated enough. Yeah, I keep going back to these displaced settlers. It's like how many times are they going to be, you know, be able to put up with, hey, you know, all's quiet, move back home. And then Hezbo is like, oh, no, the hell it's not. And then they start, you know, throwing rockets again. And they got to relocate and all this stuff. It's just this back and forth.

This is just like you said, it's all to as well as advantage. It's an intractable problem, all right, because you can't, although, I forget which UN resolution it was, but there's UN resolution basically that establishes unifil and pushes and says basically that there's forbids, operations of armed militias within 30 miles of the border. I think it uses the Latani River as kind of the limit for armed militias coming south. Well, that has never been enforced. And, you know, Hizbola is strong in Southern 11.

But the reason why it's strong is because their fighters are from that area. You know, you can't move Hezbollah north from the border because they live. there, you know, with their families and everything. That's, I mean, as far as well as like what they do for most of them part-time, but nevertheless, that's, you know, they, they're an integral part of the landscape there. But as far as civilian populations, yeah, I mean, sadly, in southern Lebanon, it's the poorest who can't move and don't have shelters and are still stuck in, you know the towns like the one that was struck today

and and Masuri yeah you know I mean Masori still has a significant population there simply because they don't have any way to go they can't move and on the Israeli side you know I mean there are again

I mean not Israelis aren't all rich by any means and many of them can't afford to move either I mean, the population, large segment of population, Haver is still there. And a number of them, you know, don't have shelters, don't have things that they're supposed to do. So, yeah, in the end, it's civilian populations on both sides who suffer. But the impact that that has kind of on the war fighter or that are the people who decide whether or not to go to war, it's likely you have a greater impact in Israel.

and it's likely to be on the side of the hawks. That makes sense. I have a question regarding Gaza. I mean, you mentioned like, you know, the IDF wanting to like reset and, you know,

lick its wounds and, you know, refresh. How many, how many soldiers ballpark are down in Gaza right now? Is it still going on? Is the fighting still, like,

fierce as it slowed down? Is there a low, like where are they at exactly, like on the ground? Yeah, so they've got roughly, it's difficult to tell because they've got, I believe, two division headquarters, but it looks like only kind of a brigade reinforced, either around or in Gaza. And, you know, you can quibble with that and you go back and forth where who's within or not. But they, you know, they've got, they're holding, crucially, they're holding the Philadelphia Corridor.

still, which is a cause of contention in the peace talks. It's a cause of contention of Egypt to some extent, but it's a, it's become a point of contention to and then the peace talks because the Israelis insist that they want to remain there. Indeed, they insist they need to remain in Gaza itself. Right now, as I've said, they've got brigades poised outside. They've got, and they've got a brigade plus in the north.

in the northern part and then one that's just within kind of the city boundaries midway so they they're within striking distance of any part of Gaza either within there or just outside

what's sort of fighting very very little ground fighting is taking place at all in the last certainly in the last few days it's the Israelis

continued strikes, but as far as fighting, no, it's been, it's been quiet. But nevertheless, I mean, Gaza, a campaign that has gone on now for 10 months, right, has drained the IDF. And for a force that relies heavily on its reserves, it's had a heavy impact on the economy. By the way, That is another reason why there's a strong impetus within Israel not to go to war in Lebanon right now because war is awful for the economy. You start getting hit by or you just have the threat of missile and rocket attacks or you're a country at war, then you have to close down your airport. Well, Ben Gurin was closed down for a few hours today. and you know you could see on on kind of the Twitter space the the frantic calls for it to be open you know and that's just a few hours so it's um there's a lot of factors here at play but they all kind of line up behind this these attacks today being pointing towards de-escalation I hope obviously hope I'm right I want to say, I won't, I won't, I went, I went, I went, I went,

just to display on that, but. Yeah. So the attack, the attack today was basically, you know, they were, they were staging right for a larger missile and rocket attack on Israel. Yeah. And Israel hit them. Yeah. Just the fact that Israel was able to, like, you know, see it, just, you know, from their SIGIN or whatever and be able to destroy it, that you think that'll deter them from

trying to launch another large scale. attack? Oh, no. Or is that the whole? I mean, they, you know, the, it, this certainly, I mean, we'll see how preemptive this was. And I have no way, we have no way of telling how successful this attack was. But if we take, you know, the IDF had its word, then yeah, this was, this was really good intel. But, you know, I'm not, but a couple of things. One is, that Lebanon has been the focus for the IDF's intelligence focus since, you know, 1988. Hamas has, was never kind of a blip on the horizon there.

So, you know, in the words of one IDF general commented to me, he said, hey, look, we've got more targets in Lebanon than we could possibly execute. We just don't have the time and we don't have the resources. And so they're continuously perfecting, refining these targets. Now, when you're talking about rocket launch sites, those are really transitory. So it's difficult to assess what we call BDA battle damage assessment on. What were the real effects of this? And it's not going to be in tonnage of bombs or areas destroyed.

It's really hard to tell what the preemptive effect is. except you know in kind of interestingly enough i think in the um uh the fact that uh hasbollah was unable to to launch a concerted counter attack okay number one you know if it had missiles at hand that had survived and it certainly would have done so um and secondly is the kind of the wording i mean of coming from nazrallah if if there was more to come if the sunday if the sunday was still waiting, then then I know Nazrallah wouldn't be using this kind of de-escalatory language that he did today. That's just my hunch.

Yeah. I went from my entire career without saying that's my hunch. I may have I may have said it once in a boot camp. Outside of that, Andy mentioned before the show talking a bit about some Kirsts stuff. where the Ukrainians have seemed to develop and used a jet power drone in Russia. Yeah, yeah. So I don't know. I'm sure this has hit the new summer in the States.

If not, we're breaking it. Yeah. And I'm going to mispronounce the name of the, but I've heard this name before. But they've developed a jet-engined drone missile. All right. So basically, it's a long range precision strike drone with a jet engine. You know, think I suppose, of the V2, if that was precision guided. Someone's going to beat me up for using that. But in any case, something that is supremely accurate and causes a huge amount of destruction for a drone

and travels to its target very, very quickly. You know, I mean, you've all had experience in drones. One of the hallmark features is that they, you know, you can, is their sound. I'm not saying you wouldn't hear these drones. I'm just saying by the time you heard it, it doesn't leave you much time to react. And they're called Pallianetia. Pallianetia. Very good.

Okay, so the reason why I've heard this term, because it was used as a password at Ukrainian checkpoints, because Russians cannot say certain words or certain. So something in palaeansia, the Russians struggle to say. Interesting. Yeah. And I can't remember. Why? So like their accent would be different?

It means a loaf of bread. So the accent would be obvious. Oh no, I think that they just can't say something there. It's like, you know, we find it really hard to say that in Arabic or roll our R's if we're not Hispanic. I mean, that's what I'm guessing. I don't know. Anyway, I'm looking at an article. It's from the key post and it says Russians will soon learn to pronounce polyun, whatever you say.

Ukraine's new jet propelled drone. Okay, I love it. All right. They will soon learn to pronounce it. Anyway, so it's already hit, one of these already hit an ammunition depot inside Russia. It was like two days ago. And apparently witnesses reported that they've heard jet engines inbound. So they thought that it must be a fixed-wing aircraft, a fixed-wing aircraft attack.

And that's how it was reported. Turns out that this was drones. So yeah, you think, well, now it's not only the fact that they can hit their targets very quickly, high impact, blah, blah, blah, but you've got the deception factor that they sound at least, you know, like fixed-wing aircraft. I don't know how they show up on radar, but you've got the fact that they're now probably diverting resources. So, you know, I mean, like the Kersk incursion, this is great news and it's almost a distraction, though, from what's going on in Dombas. Don't get me wrong. I think this is, look, being able to strike targets within Russia, I think really ratches up the tension even more on Putin. and you just have to watch how he reacts to threats to Russian soil.

At the beginning of the incursion in DeKirsk, he's caught on, I think it was online, a TikTok video yelling and screaming at his commanders. You know, it's like a scene, what's that horrible hackneyed Hitler movie, Downfall. Yeah, it's like a scene of the bunker in Downfall. Yeah, so he's, you know, I mean, there's no doubt about. it he this is really this is really hurting him um and the Ukrainians know that and then they're going to keep bashing it up but and and the same thing now the psychological factor of having your own cities hit by these drones and at little cost or i mean relatively little cost or risk to the ukrainians

It could possibly in the course of the next year turn the tide on the Russians as far as, you know, the missile war. It could, although that depends on the number of things like the Ukrainians getting adequate, I mean, more missile defenses. But the problem is this. So all of this is going on and the Russians have, according to the British, papers this morning. They're within five miles, all right? That's eight kilometers for those of you who struggle with the imperial system. Eight miles of Pockrovsk.

Pokrovsk is a town I'm very familiar with. Richie and I have spent a lot of time there in a dreadful hotel that reminded me of faulty towns. Anyway, I digress. But no one wants to default to the Russians. They're within five. miles. Why does that matter? Because Pockrosk and Khrmitosk are the only of the two major cities left in Dombas. And once they have fallen, then Putin can pretty much claim that he has captured

all of that region of Ukraine, which is one of his stated war aims and be a huge blow, I mean materially, but psychologically too, for the Ukrainians. So that, you know, that, all of these things are, you know, uplift the soul to see Ukrainian troops holding. I mean, it's a significant amount of land. It's 500 square miles of Russian territory. They're holding like 93 settlements they've captured since 6 August. So what's that in?

Yeah. And having they evacuated like over 100,000 Russians too? Yeah, yeah. I mean, you know, I mean, I almost thought that. that I almost wanted to offer help of that as a Mozart group, but I just thought that the name might not help us there. That was a joke.

You know, sorry, go ahead. Is the aim of like part, partial aim of this encouraging it to Kyrsk and trying to gobble up as much land as possible, if they can hold it. Is it like a chip for negotiation later down the road? I know they were going to negotiate, recently about like not hitting infrastructure or like nuke plants or something like that and that's

stopped because of kirk's but yeah yeah let's say i i think that's one factor i think um maybe not as a well yeah as a potential chip so i guess medium or long term yeah improve ukraine standing ahead of potential peace talks so that's you know and i'm not saying that's the most important one. That's probably number three. But I think number one is force Russia to divert troops from Ukraine's east, from Dombas. And to some extent, it has been able to do so. I mean, Russia has diverted troops from Dombas, not in time to prevent the Ukrainian advance, but it's difficult to see if that is actually slowed down the Russian advance in Dombas. Okay. Nevertheless, yeah, it's, it's,

it's certain, I think it's certain to have slowed down and thus reduce the Russian threat to Pock-Rosk, which I just mentioned. So that makes sense. And secondly, is kind of, you know, change Ukraine's narrative of battlefield defeat, which has kind of been hanging over it since the offensive of last summer. fail, you know, or heated out is a better way to put it in the fall of last year, right? And Ukraine needs a story of resilience, more than resilience, you know, a win. In the same way, remember that the stories of Ukrainian soldiers, civilians fighting off Russian tank columns north of Kiev in the opening days of the war inspired the world.

in the same way. That's what the Ukrainians are looking for. And it's more than feel good. Zelensky took, you know, yesterday was Ukrainian Independence Day, right? So Zelenskyy on Ukrainian Independence Day, to some people surprised in the West, reiterated the fact that Ukraine would not settle, while the Russians held, you know, any part of Ukraine. And to that point, there had been some speculation that he might start seeding

or talking about seeding some of the four regions currently occupied by Moscow in exchange for peace. But absolutely the opposite of that. There's a message of defiance on that day. So, you know, along with that message comes this incursion to Kersk and now the ability to hit Russian cities, Russian infrastructure, probably not at scale yet. But if the Ukrainians have to, you know, Ukrainians being who they are, I'm sure, will innovate so that they are producing these things at scale. Is that enough to change the tide of the war? I don't know. You know, probably not.

Other factors will come into play. But in the end, I am optimistic. You know, I mean, I think that the, you know, hard times are not over. Far from it. Ukraine's facing a manpower crunch, which is something I wrote about a year ago. But it's really hitting them hard now. And, you know, they were trying to chase down the 600,000. and also men who eligible for military age,

who supposedly left the country, the working ways to compel them to return, and they're also widening the age, or widening the age for conscription. Their ability to get these guys trained, equipped in the line in time, their ability to get critical weapon systems in their hands and sufficient quantity to prevent the Russians adapting and talking air defense, but also long-range precision strike. I know there's a conversation

with the UK now about storm shadow missiles. You know, see, Ukraine is trying to prepare for the possibility that the US will no longer be able to support it after our coming election. So all of these things are unfolding in the background and undoubtedly had influence on, you know, on Zelensky's decision to launch this incursion into Russia. And on top of all that, correct me if I'm wrong, that coming a winner will probably put a big damper on a lot of this, right? Yeah, you know, the funny thing is everyone predicts. things in winter in Ukraine and Russia and to include me. And it's really, I can't, I can't point of the fact that operations have slowed down much

at all because of the weather there. You know, I'm thinking for a moment, it's undoubtedly true that Dombas becomes just a, this huge slush pit of mud. This is one of the reasons, by the way, that M1E ones are struggling there, feeling there. It's very interesting. It's because while, you know, the Russian-made or the smaller, lighter European tanks are doing much better because our tanks were made for, you know, they were made for the plains of northern Europe. And then they've been combat tested and hard-packed sand and tarmac. But they haven't had to go to war in a place like, you know,

the dombas in ukraine which is literally i mean it's like a roller coaster of mud pits it's like one of those uh it looks like the course of a mud run you know wherever you're driving uh it's hard to get through at the best of times so um yeah so the n1a one failed that um and the ukrain is very reliant on uh you know on the i don't know i've heard the leopard is performing much better but also on, you know, their own legacy, the Soviet model tanks. I think the British Challenger to challenge it, the Challenger 2. Anyway, yeah. I have a question.

What's that? Yeah. Like, so some of the weapon systems that Ukraine's gotten from the West, are they range-wise able to like at least even threaten Moscow from Kursk or no? or are they allowed to do it? Like will the U.S. and NATO overall be like, yeah, it's okay. You could shoot our weapons as deep into Russia as possible. Because there was a bit about in Politico where the U.S. didn't want that to happen because they're looking to reset relations with Moscow, with Russia, which is wild to me.

Like, I don't know how you don't, the only way you reset relations is if Putin's gone. Yeah. So the Ukrainians have shown that they can already range Moscow with drones at least. And I'd have to, so one of our listeners can probably correct me, but I believe that the storm shadow is, which would enable them to strike Moscow. But regardless, yeah, with unmanned systems, they can already do so. already done so. I think your question pertains to NATO manufactured weapons. Right now, there's a prohibition on those being used within Russia, although the U.S. administration just in retrospect waived that

requirement for the striker vehicle, which is sitting on Russian soil right now, vicinity of curse. Yeah. After those pictures emerged, We got the, oh, that, that wave that came out pretty quickly. Oh, yeah. Armoured personnel carriers, that's not a problem. We didn't envision that. Yeah. We were talking about long range.

So you'll see in, for instance, the British papers are Zelensky appealing directly to the new British prime minister, Keir Stama, saying, who's a labor prime minister, regardless. You know, unlike here, both sides and the UK. labor and conservative are very stormed supporters of ukraine and anti-russian um so zelenski has reached out to the british prime minister specifically about storm shadow asking hey can we get more storm shadow and permission to hit targets within russia yeah right now that's a prohibition that uh they they also the other uh so storm shadow keeps coming up because uh it is a it's an incredibly I mean it's

you know I hate to use state of the art but it's extremely capable yeah and you know it's it's a different capacity by far than you know when we talk about attackers and

things like that storm shadow and in the quantities I don't want to miss quote but I believe I believe that the UK only had 1,200 and they gave Ukraine something, an unknown quantity, but UK saying up to three quarters of that number. Oh, wow.

But they gave them a shitload and they gave them a big percentage of what they have. But now, so now the question of, hey, can we use these now to hit targets in Russia is a significant question, right? Previously, they were allowed to, the Brits said you can hit targets, you know, in Crimea, but not Russia itself. Yeah. There are those in Ukraine who say that that, in conjunction, you know, with the F-16s coming in, in conjunction with ramped-up production of 155 rounds, you know, imported 155 rounds from Europe as well as the U.S. You know, all of these things are combining, too, to give Ukraine a better edge in 2025. And, of course, you know, I think there's good rationale on that.

I hope they're right. I hope too, you know, Putin chokes and dies on a chicken bone in front of his family. Yeah. But I can't, I mean, I can't. That political article was wild to me how they, you know, US is hoping for a reset with the relations with Russia. I mean, that's they can't with the current regime. There's no way they could reset relations. Like, let's be honest here.

Yeah, I, that just seems like a crazy, it just seems like so far-fetched and like, yeah, pipe dream. It's beyond my can. Maybe, you know, maybe if someone, they just Putin aside, but no, certainly not with this guy. Yeah. But, you know, who knows? I mean, I see that you've had,

I mean, there are definitely people in this country who support Russia. You know, you've had one of your, one of your long-time guests, right? Not back then like he's a friend of ours, bro. investigating for um he and he was here before my time let me put that out there it's all these disclaimers i'm just putting the facts out being being investigated for his contacts with uh russian state media right scot ridder yeah yeah so it's very interesting actually on that point as preceding that and this is long overdue was a it's not a kind of a state of findings the wrong word but it was a it was a U.S. government, you know, official statement saying that Russian media services and it's singled out RT were arms for the Russian government or were arms of the Russian intelligence service, right?

Which is, I mean, it's kind of an obvious statement, but it, but it, say, it made that comment for a reason because you've got all these dudes who kind of flirt around with RT and do interviews or even host interviews and do things. as though it's okay, right? Yeah. And I don't know. I can't comment about what they're, you know, investigating Scott Ritter and this other dude for. Well, they raided his home, right? Yeah.

But you and I both know there are many others who do the anti-dance, who call themselves Americans and have been very pro-Russian throughout this whole sorry debacle. Frankly, I think people like Scott Ritter, especially for him, about like he had his deal with his like sexual abuse cases and all that stuff uh you know dirtbag stuff he's an absolute monster if you ask me and nobody would touch him russia would and he's got

a butter his breath so well well that's not true the team house and russian both parts fuck you andy i'm uncomfortable as talking about it it was before my time dude i mean so if people don't know scotritter was a u.n uh weapons and smearth yeah and reportedly an Iraqi agent. I have that on Good Source. What? Yeah, yeah. I've heard that.

I'll say what the CIA guys tell me. I think it was reported in the press. He couldn't be. It was not me. It was not Jason. He can't be an Iraqi and a Russian agent. Well, during the Iraq war. And a pedophile.

It's a trifective. You have that on your... And a Marine officer? That's the hardest part, right? Yeah. Was he a Marine officer? I think you had mentioned that. I don't know that he was or wasn't.

Yeah, I think so. It was. I think I, you know, I can't bring myself to look him up on Wikipedia right now. Yeah, no. But I believe it was. But there is a loud minority of folks out there in the United States that are American journalist, quote unquote, pundits that are full-throated, uh, oh, yeah. You know, backers in Russia.

It's kind of wild to me. Like you saw Tim Poole, who was a, I've fallen victim to, uh, to one. Tim Poole had a clip that came out yesterday where he was like, seething about the curse concussion that Ukraine was a terrorist state invading a fucking foreign country like, where have you been the last literally like two?

I'm not saying 21st. Tim Poole. He's a, he's a relatively popular right wing, I would say, commentator. Oh, okay. He was seething.

He was seething. If we were, if we took like an extreme right wing, like, I mean, not white wing. I don't mean an extreme right wing. But if we were right to wing or if we took a stance politically, gosh, please do not do not. I did not say extreme running, but more of a right wing position.

I think certainly that would make us perhaps more popular. Without question. Yeah, but. Yeah, we'd be riding in jet skis. But we like, you know, we like a well-balanced audience. We like the value. Even eyes on and also the team house. Like if we went, if we went,

right of center or writer writer yeah we would probably make a lot more money and it's hampered growth but like we're not doing it for growth for growth sake right we're trying to be as down the pipe as possible we'll sometimes have right wingers on well sometimes have lefties on

and for the most part like especially team house most most mill guys and CIA guys are like you said last week are right of center they're not full on you know goose step right of center but right of center if you're in the you know that's understandable so that's where we try to keep it

and it's hampered our growth in terms of like money or like subscribers and stuff if you started talking about UFOs and you know government conspiracy right we would be yeah we'd be i swear to god we'd each have jet skis again i personally don't give a shit either way about being popular so right i would love a jet ski but i want to do it for the right reasons i know let's think about the jet ski too. Yeah. Jet skis and popularity. I don't know. It's right. You know, I like, I like our, you know, our fan base are the intelligentsia, right? Sure. Yeah. We, I know we, we don't, you know, we have a very strict no in-sell policy, which I think has cut down a lot of people who watch the team house. But, but I'm glad, you know, I think that's, yeah. Yeah. I think, I think,

we can hold on to our audience out there. Thank you very much. By the way, we do appreciate it. Always the support. Andy Milburn, what do we got cooking? What do we have? Great, a substack article you put out. Check out a substack.

It's down in the description. Oh, yeah. Please do read it. It was a great article inside of what went down. And there's a bit more insight also in his last episode on the team house. So check that out as well. Well, it's my life. Scariest.

And it had nothing to do with combat. It's gnarly. Yeah. Yeah. Enough about me. All right. What else we got? Jason has no Instagram or Twitter.

Nope. I'm on Instagram. I know, but you'd want it out. You want it out there? Okay. Yeah, you'll let me alone. Patreon.com slash the team house. Very important.

Yeah. If you're enjoying the show, that's the best place to support. It's Patreon.com slash team house. The link is in the description. Don't forget to like. Don't forget to subscribe. that's also important. If you can't afford the Patreon, no worries, like, subscribe, share it.

Tell your friend, tell your mother. Tell whoever, honestly, we'll listen. And yeah, I appreciate it. Thank you guys. I'm pushing for us to do another, well, like Andy's Israeli live broadcast, but not in that sense of urgency. I'd like to do something on location somewhere, you know. Just all together or like somewhere in like a war zone. I mean, it can be a war zone.

I'm good on that. You know what I mean? I'm okay. All right. But yeah, I'm down to do. When the next episode is going to come from. Yeah. So let's think about sometime in the fall doing something live altogether.

Yeah. That sounds cool. Okay. Should we wrap up? Yeah. Thanks, guys. Before we commit ourselves to some. Yeah.

No, it's going to take it. Oh, my God, they're going to them on. Right? Okay. Thanks, everybody. Okay, thanks very much. Everyone, see you next week.