The Team House - Putin Balks at Ceasefire Negotiations in Turkey | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

Episode Date: May 18, 2025

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Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Aizan Geopolitics. I'm here with Mick Mulroy. I'm Dmitzikon Tacos. A lot cooking as usual. First on the list is the Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul that took place. That just ended about a day ago with no real. No real. I mean, some movement, but not really much.

They've agreed to swap 1,000 POWs, 1,000 for 1,000. first talk since 22 since the war started between actually Ukraine and Russia together in the room I mean Putin was nowhere to be found which is not really surprising I'm sorry I was reading that like Moscow kind of sees it as a win I guess like doing nothing

as a win for them and like the Ukrainians are not exactly happy with what went down there was some talks that there was like ultimatums talked about and how Russia demanded that Ukraine remove their troops from Ukrainian territory, which is fucking hilarious.

I mean, anyway, you slice it. Like, if you're not, like, part of the FSB or GRU, like,

I don't know how you could spin this at all, right? Like, if you're on the payroll, I don't know how you spend this in Russia's favor. Medvedev tweeted recently, like literally probably 30 minutes an hour ago, like threats and stuff like that.

Like, he's another lunatic. Um, Yeah, one other thing I read too that the Pope, the new Pope offered the Vatican Yeah, it's like a possibility for a place to do negotiations and stuff like that. Zelensky did call and they did agree to talk more, but like I feel like that's probably Russia just trying to stall. Mick, what do you got with this?

Well, I think you summed it up there pretty well, Dee. the summit in Istanbul was called for, by the way, by Putin. Right. It's a President Putin called the summit, then refused to show up and face President Zelenskyy, face-to-face, right? Shows you, you know, his level of confidence in his position and certainly looking across the aisle from somebody who I think is far superior to him as a leader. And then they basically did nothing, right?

This prisoner swap's good, obviously, for the prisoners are getting released. And, you know, the fact that it was, if you want to look at class outful kind of thing at all, a thousand prisoners means a lot more to Ukraine than it does to Russia. Yes, it generally doesn't care, doesn't give a damn about their troops. Chances are these guys will get, you know, patched up, fixed up, fueled up, and be back on the battlefield for the Ukrainian side. So I think that's good, but it's also clear that Russia is not interested at all in a real ceasefire negotiation process. As long as they consider themselves winning and they're basically making very minor progress in the battlefield, they're not going to come to the table. And I think that's up to the coalition that supports Ukraine to change.

Right. So we need to stop talking about secondary sanctions and releasing Russian frozen assets in Europe and increasing security assistance. And we need to do all those things. They need to happen. If they don't happen, then we're getting close to the definition of insanity. We just keep doing the same thing, expecting a different outcome. It's time now to announce these things happening, give a deadline. Russia can see the same thing. clock ticking. Secondary sanctions will be, you know, go into a place on July 10th or whatever it is. Whatever they need, you know, there's a process that has to take place. So, but initiate the process now and this is the date. We're going to start releasing $30 billion a week. I'm just making this up. Yeah. But these are real consequences from there's a 300 billion plus, I think, in Belgium alone, to Ukraine. And, you know, you're seeing like, Italy just donated several hundred armored personnel carriers. It's still happening, but they need to announce a substantial increase.

Right. Potentially even start getting ready to start moving forces around at the border, right? Because there's a, there's strong talk about like NATO forces? Well, I mean, I wouldn't call it NATO because the U.S. would likely oppose it, but countries are allowed to move their own forces. Oh, I got it. Yeah, yeah. Right. So there is talk about like if, if Russia starts making significant advances,

are the coalition of the willing, so the UK, France, Germany, and Poland willing to send troops into Kiev? Right. They don't need permission to Russia to send for Ukraine to invite other European forces into Kiev, especially if Russia won't have a ceasefire. Right. And the original plan of the United States had them go in during a ceasefire. Right. Which Russia will oppose. So there needs to be less, you know, talking about what we could do and more doing what we could do. Yeah.

Can do. And I think that's what's coming next. Obviously, the Pope is coming in with a lot of support. He's liked. I mean, he's the Pope, so he's expected to be like, but he's this Pope seems to be particularly liked. Not that Francis wasn't. But he could hold negotiations. And I think they should call it and we should send people and obviously the Ukrainians and European partners and see if Russia shows up. If they can't come to a ceasefire negotiation hosted by Pope, then you got your answer. Yeah.

You got your answer. Right. It's all smoke and merits. It's all smoke and merits. And next time they demand that, you know, Ukraine withdraw from Ukraine. It should be immediately dismissed. It shouldn't have considered a legitimate offer or negotiation. It needs to be a 30-day unconditional ceasefire.

That's first. And then they start talking about ending the conflict long term. Yeah. Until they get there. But they should. I mean, I know it might be some posturing. But if the Pope calls for a summit in the Vatican on this date, that could be the kickoff of all the consequences that come after when they don't show up or they don't show up and don't don't

actually agree to a 30-date unconditional ceasefire then security assistance goes up penalties sanctions additional sanctions secondary sanctions and the start of the release of the that's what i think is the only thing that's going to get rushes attention they only understand consequences compliments and capitulation just makes them more bold yeah I also looked at like who attended the meetings too. So like the Ukrainian defense minister was there, which is like a pretty high up. Yes. And like for the Russians, the guy who was leading it was just like one of Putin's like advisors.

Right. And like maybe he's got to sway or whatever. Maybe he does have that Wasta. But like Lavarov wasn't there. There wasn't anybody there of like, you know, big, big name, big face that people know. And, you know, at least recognize as somebody who's substantial in Russia. I mean, I'm sure like CIA and Ellis know exactly about this dude and stuff like that. And I'm sure he does have a poll.

But to go from like, yeah, week before when Putin's calling for this stuff to Wenzelensky's like, yeah, I'll be there. Like, I'll be there with Bell's on. Right. Like I'm ready to talk. And then he just like took completely fucking box at it. It's like what is the strategic value for Russia in doing that or Putin in doing that? Is it just like throwing shit at the wall and seeing what sticks for them? Like I don't understand like the logic.

I think for them, they think it keeps them in the discussion as part of this process for a ceasefire. Right. So we called it. We showed up. Right. But it has to actually have substance. Right. So it's if not, it's just a stalling deck.

Right. We're just trying to see how much more they can take on the battlefield. It's, it's really obvious. And I know it's obvious to everybody. So I'm going to point out nothing, well, to most people, I say. I'm not putting, most of our people listen and I think right now, like, yeah, no kidding. That's why I say they pick a date real early, like as soon as possible, at the Vatican. When we hit that, 30-day ceasefire goes into place.

If they'd Russians don't show up or don't agree to a 30-day ceasefire, then it turns into a planning session. Yeah, obviously out of the Vatican because the Vatican isn't going to be part of the planning session for Ukraine. winning necessarily. They need to stay neutral. Then immediately it shifts. They leave the Vatican and they start planning, you know, Prime Minister Maloney is a big supporter of Ukraine. So they can just go down the road to Rome and boom. They start planning, okay, how are we going to win this thing then? That's, you got to, you got to play to win, right? You can't play to tie. You can't play to capitulate. You got to play to win. And we are so far past the time when that needs to happen. Hey guys, it's Jack. I want to tell you guys about the sponsor for today's show. It's Mando. Mando

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Ukraine has been asking to join NATO 14 years before the war started. And we said no each time. Yeah. And NATO was expanded because of the Russian decision to invade Ukraine. Also like if let's say Russia never invaded, but they still have 150,000 troops on the border of Ukraine, NATO's not going to be like, yeah, we'll accept you with open arms, right? Like, it's not, like, they're going to take that into consideration of, like, what's going to trigger an article five. And let's say something does trigger an article five. This is just a thought experiment now.

But, you know, then you have to see, like, oh, is NATO up to snuff? Are they really willing to enforce Article 5 on, let's say, a new member, right? Like, so I couldn't, I couldn't believe, like, it would be an easy process for Ukraine to have gotten into NATO. even if when like I remember when George Bush was talking about Georgia becoming a NATO member and stuff like that. Like that's all kind of rhetoric. Like it's not really like there's a process obviously that goes goes goes through it. I mean even Sweden and Finland they joined but it wasn't really like yeah, you guys are in. No problem.

We had shit to deal with with Turkey and stuff like that to allow Sweden was it in or whatever. You know like. Yeah. Right. So it's like a K.k.a and all that stuff, which is now kaput. PKK as a no another topic. They've basically closed shop. But you're right.

But there is a scenario where NATO where Ukraine could get into NATO. If they agree to, you know, not seed territory, but stop fighting. And obviously Russia does control part of their territory about 18%. I mean, I think Ukraine should be the one to decide this. But if they do decide it, they should be get instant membership for the rest of Ukraine into NATO. Right. As a compromise. Yeah. So that's, it's frozen. It's frozen. Doesn't mean that that's part of Russia. Right. National community shouldn't recognize it, but they're not going to do anything to take it back. So Crimea might essentially be Russia. But that's, there is a scenario. That's the ultimate security guarantee. Right. Right. Right. So once again, it shows just how strategically bad this was for Russia. Right. So they end up with a completely demolish section of, you know,

Ukraine that isn't internationally recognized as Russia. And then Ukraine becomes part of NATO, you know, the most viable part. And the United States moves in in large numbers to, you know, extrapolate the natural resources. It's a NATO country. And that's good for Russia. I mean, Putin makes just bad decisions, but we need to make it a bad decision on his part and stop basically, you know. Screw around. You think that he made this decision to go into Ukraine because, like, his,

his intel and his defense guys were just, like, feeding him bullshit. Like, oh, we're going to smoke these guys in like a week or two. That's a good question. Because, like, to be the analyst in this, our intel was saying they were going to take them. Right. So, right. I mean, okay, so, yes, I'm sure that they have a bit of the, tell the boss what he wants to hear things. in Russia.

Yeah. But I do believe, just like we believe, that they would be able to take Russia. I mean, it is the difference in size of military, population, resources, solid alliances, to be honest, because Ukraine had no alliances other than, you know, the United States and the UK and Russia that said that they wouldn't get invaded when they gave up their nuclear personal, right? But it wasn't a real alliance because proven we don't keep our work unless it's an actual treaty. So if you look, go back to February at 22, we were almost in line with what I think Russia intelligence was telling Putin.

Yeah. You're going to win. It's going to take three weeks around that. And Keith's going to fall and the government's going to flee into exile and they have it. And they completely underestimated, as did we. we, the well of the Ukrainian people, the incompetence of Russian military planners and executors, for that matter, their logistics system couldn't even keep up with an invasion of a country that was right next to them.

Crazy. Yeah. I mean, it's, you know, the U.S. can invade and supply a force on the other side of the world that's completely landlock, Afghanistan, for example. Yeah. Russia couldn't even keep. Burger Kings and shit. Yeah.

You know, like you bring America. Yeah. You know, 25 miles in from their border. That isn't. It's not. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, everyone's been talking about how like, oh, well, ever since this, like, Russia's

armies essentially a paper tiger. They're not nothing to sneeze at, but I mean, if you can't take over, it's like us not being able to, this is a bad example given the times, but it's us not being able to, like, invade. take over Canada. Right. I don't mean. You could actually,

it might be a similar size difference. Yeah. Right. Well, like population-wise. Yeah. Yeah. And military size.

I mean, you have to look it up. Yeah. I think it really shy. And the Russia has had to rely on North Korean troops, potentially Chinese troops, Russian, I mean,

Iranian drones. And now it looks like Iran might provide short, short-range missiles. And North Korean artillery by the millions. Yeah. Right. So if they didn't have that manufacturing, that very cheap manufacturing in North Korea, they'd be in

bad place. Yeah. Because they're losing troops like, it's literally unheard of in modern warfare. You know, after World War II, they're losing troops thousands a week. It's just, they just generally don't give a damn about their people. It's kind of incredible. Right. Right. Like, right, that, how Russian, like, the population puts up with it because, like, it's unbelievable how insulated and protected, I guess, that regime is because if you've lost 150, 200,000 guys, plus, like, another double that or more in casualties, like, hurt, like guys who are hurt.

Um, I don't understand how a regime like that could stay in power. It's fucking insane to think, in this modern day. Like, yeah, all right, they have control over the internet and the information. But at the same time, people are getting information too, right? Like at some point, you're going to notice, shit, we've lost 150,000, 200,000 guys. Right. Guys are coming back. Brothers, cousins, uncles, they're not coming back.

You don't need to be posted on Twitter. You're seeing it. Right. And all the people that, you know, one of the big issues in Russia is all the people that could do a difference, can make Russia a difference that are competent that are want to see you know freedoms and free economies and stuff they leave right because they'll be crushed immediately yeah so it's a vicious cycle where the people who are with most advanced the country um leaving come of the united states yeah for europe right and it leaves only the people that profit of the regime staying in place you know the oligarchs

yeah man it's just incredible like in this day and is going on between two years like you know give it in europe there's a fucking massive land war going on um uh what do you think happens next in terms of like talks and stuff like that give me a little bit of speculation so i think i think obviously the coalition of the willing they call those four main actually it's all europe right but those are the ones that are most engaged, you know, Macron, everybody that's I already referenced. I think they're ready to do this. They don't need, you know, McMull right from Montana to tell them, like, it's time to move out.

You've got to start secondary sanctions. You've got to start freezing assets. I think that's the next on the discussion. I think we'll hear that soon. If not, then I would be surprised. Do you think the reason why this is being held up, do you believe it's kind of? got something to do with the Trump administration and like a Europe trying to play it like, I don't know, for lack of a better word, like handholding a little bit to be like,

we have to do this. We should do this because like you said earlier, you know, the Trump administration compared to the Biden administration came in with a little bit different thought process and when it comes to in terms of like Russia and stuff like that and who invaded who and like whose focus is. Do you think that like that might be a little bit of why there's some drag to this? and it's not really happening as fast as we'd like it to happen? Yeah, I think there was that caused the drag where people were, I mean, we saw some of the stuff that I just was really shocking,

you know, repeating Russian, very discredited talking points, for example. This idea that we were trusting Russia, it's not the first administration who has wrongfully came to the conclusion of trusting Putin, And we can all remember the whole President Bush. Not the ranch thing. Well, you know, I looked into his eyes and all that stuff. I mean, the guy's a KGB spy. So, I mean, he knows how to make you.

I think that was at his ranch in Texas, too. Oh, yeah. That's right. Yeah, yeah. And then, you know, Secretary Clinton with the giant reset button and all that stuff. I mean, I think, I think, you know, there's plenty of things to point out in the past that were very. misplaced when it comes to trusting Russia. But I think we're in a spot right now

where the administration understands just who needs to be trusted and who needs not to be trusted and that you can't just convince President Putin to do anything that he doesn't want to without force.

You just can. Or some kind of coercion, right? It doesn't have to be a military force, but it can be economic pressure in secondary sanctions and such. That has to be what leads. Or we're going to be stuck in this It's not going to advance.

Yeah. They're just going to keep making incremental advances. And eventually the rest of Europe, as Europe, will have to make a stand. And they might do it and keep. Yeah. And say, okay. So now you're attacking French, German, Polish, and Great Britain's forces. So now you're fighting all of this.

And then we'll have to decide, you know, is that an Article 5 situation? I don't know. Right. If they start attacking countries in Europe, not just in Ukraine, then it definitely would be. Well, yeah, there's like no, there's no interpretation for that. I wonder what would happen if, like, there was a coalition of like UK, France, Poland, and, you know, the rest of Europe that sent like a division into Kiev. What would happen?

Like, how would Putin react to that? How he'd do standard, like, you know, we're going to use nuclear weapons, blah, blah, blah. done that before already. Yeah, he's done it so many times. I mean, not that we're not concerned about that. Of course. I mean, does he want to start a nuclear war with the NATO? No, he knows he's cooked at that point. I mean, essentially, it's like having a, you know, guns to each other's head. Right. And no matter who pulls a trigger first, the other one's going to go off. Yeah, everyone's like it's not. Yeah. Everybody's going to die, right? So the reason why we have this nuclear triad is, you know,

sea, air, land-based nuclear weapons is because we're going to ensure that our weapons are expended in a case of a nuclear war, even if they strike first. Like, even if they try to take out, they don't know where our subs are.

They basically don't know where aircraft are. And the same can be said about Russia, at least they do a lot to try to. Sure. And the sub-based nuclear weapons are the ones that are most secure, just so everybody knows. They simply can't keep track them.

Yeah. Big ocean. Right. So how do you take it out? You don't. So it just comes at you from a direction you don't expect it. Yeah. But I think everybody realizes, and you can Google it as it's not classified, it's just

even a limited nuclear war ends up in catastrophic consequences worldwide. So a strategic level nuclear war. Forget it. It's hundreds of millions of people that. Yeah. It could be extinction. It could just be an extinction level. Yeah.

Nobody wants that. Not even fucking Putin, right? Because he knows he's got his name. His name is on one of them. Like they're going to, first thing is drop it wherever he hangs his hat, right? Which we definitely know where. It's probably not the Kremlin, but we know exactly where he sleeps every night, probably. I hope so.

Yeah. That should be a prime option price. If they don't, I'd be a little bit upset with where my money's going for tax dollars for the CIA. then say DIA, whoever. All the above. Yeah. Yeah. Like that should be priority number one.

It's interesting to, I know this is like a little bit more of a broad talk, but like China obviously aligned with Russia, not totally, but pretty much, I'm sure covertly. You know, they were there at the victory parade in Moscow and stuff like that, which Putin probably loved because he probably was like, okay, they're not going to blow me up because Xi Jinping is next to me. So I think I'm safe, right? They're not. But, like, China tries to be this, like,

develop, you know, like how we are, right? They put their soft power out there. They spend money in developing places or they help allies. But when things go down, they don't really take a stand on anything. They kind of just, like, roll with the punches and keep, like, doing it covertly. They don't really take a stand on anything.

If you know, you know what I'm saying? compared to the United States anyway. China, you mean? Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, there is a strategic alliance between Russia and China. You know, they can't remember the name they used,

but it's kind of over-the-top language for their, you know, forever friends of highest order and all this. But there's always been a bit of a standoff. And we'd probably exploit that. Yeah. It used to be called the Sino-Soviet split. Splinter, right? it never really materialized in a way that was what we wanted.

And it still hasn't. And it probably won't. And now we're in a trade war with China and the rest of the world. So there's even less of a reason for China to separate from Russia. Right. Right. So maybe we could use some kind of new agreement as a way to leverage that. that's a possibility. But certainly right now, I know it's not their intent, obviously.

The intent is to lower tariffs. Get into that, but I'm not an economist. But it is pushing China probably more toward Russia. Sure. Because they view probably whether it's trade or kinetic, war is a war. So they're looking at potentially reconfiguring who they sell to, right? to get new alliances to traditional, non-traditional partners of China, like Japan and South Korea.

Which is insane. Yeah, it's like madness to think about that like they're kind of like, you know, playing footsy a little bit because of what's going on with the tariffs and stuff like that. Because there's tariffs on everybody. And frankly, I can't really, you can't really blame them, you know, because at the end of the day, they want to make sure that their citizens are, you know, things aren't super expensive. and their economies keep growing or don't completely crash. I mean, you kind of get it. Also, I have a prediction in the next 20 years.

I remember, like, Russia used to, was the biggest, like, one of the biggest, after the United States exporter of, like, arms. And that's, like, crashed because they needed to consolidate for Ukraine. China is going to become number two for, if they're not number two already. And they're going to start supplying Russia with, with fighters, fighters, you name it, all kinds of like arms and stuff like that. Because the Chinese industrial, defense industrial base is like scary. They have over a billion people, cheap labor, and they steal our technology.

So they don't even put in the requisite funds to develop the technology. We do. They steal it. And then they come up with a cheap way to manufacture. Yeah. It's scary. I mean, just their shipbuilding, completely. capacity is unreal.

Yes. It's really like squirting out like two, two battleships or whatever. Destroyers like a year. They could bang out like, I think it's, I think the last thing I read was about seven times that. Yeah.

That's, it's scary to think. Anyway. All right. Segwaying. Hopefully Putin just, you know, croaks, right? Like we just hear a news story tomorrow that he's,

he had a stroke. he died. People like that live for immigrants. Yeah, yeah, they live to like a hundred, right. All right. Uh, segueing now to Trump's trip to the Middle East, busy last week for him, uh, was in Saudi Arabia, was in Qatar, was in UAE, I believe, too. There was talk about him going to Israel. He didn't have going to Israel. So there was some stories about like, Israel, uh, United States kind of split, which, you know, I don't believe that ever will be the case. But anyway, there was, you know, it was kind of, and Trump got his new cool, $400 million jumbo jet, which is nice, I guess. Mick, what are your, what are your thoughts on

that? Oh, man, there's a lot of talk about there. Yeah. So, I mean, there is, I agree. There's, the U.S. and Israel will not split, you know, our alliance partnership. But there's definitely something going on between the administration and Prime Minister Nanak. Because the U.S. is unilaterally negotiated to get last U.S. hostage out, Adon Alexander, which is great. Israel didn't like it because we've basically partitioned the negotiations. That might be the end because there's no other Americans left alive. There is remains that need to be recovered. They unilaterally, bilaterally, came up at the ceasefire with the Houthis that didn't include attacking Israel.

Yeah. They apparently, according to reporting, presented a nuclear agreement to Iran that was not coordinated with Israel. And they left Israel off the trip. So, I mean, those are data points that I think suggest that there is a change in a strained relationship between the United States and Israel. I mean, I don't even think Israelis would could sugarcoat that. Right, right. And my Israeli friends aren't sugarcoding that, I can tell you. So I don't think it's going to rupture anything like that, but it is important to point out. And that, like, as the war proceeds in Gaza, there seems to be more pressure by the United States than there has been during

this administration to bring it to an end. But it looks like, Prime Minister Netanyahu, under this Operation Gideon's chariot. Yeah. Yeah. Is going to substantially escalate the conflict. So there's a difference, obviously, there. And there's a difference when it comes to the long-term negotiation to get to another JCPOA, 2.0, that it doesn't look like it'll meet the standard for the Israelis.

Because they have a pretty extreme standard on that. So, but I think Trump administration is still. going to move forward. So there's there's something there, I would say. The other part, of course, I mean, this was a primarily an economic based trip, which, you know, that's not a bad thing. That's a good thing. They've got $600 billion worth of pledged investment by the Saudis and U.S. technology and energy sector, defense sector, huge, like $143 billion in you know weapons sales Boeing I think

Boeing like 90 billion something something astronomical 200 planes or something yeah I think it was like 90 something billion 96 billion right and then

and then obviously the aircraft which I mean ethical legal standards I think we need to rethink having ethical laws for everybody it's not focusing on President Trump on what one can and can't accept. But from the security side, I mean, they're going to have to pull this thing all the way down to the rivets.

They say it might cost a billion dollars. Right. Because the way we, I don't think you should look at Air Force One as an aircraft. You should look at it as the aerial command post for the commander in chief, the most powerful military and intelligence service in the world. So, you know, we already talked about our scenario where there's a nuclear weapon. They're going to put the president up in an Air Force one to get him to a secluded location, right? So he has to be, so it has all sorts of things that no other aircraft. Yeah.

Commercial aircraft like the Bola, 747A, I think, whatever. Yeah. So it has aerial refueling, like a military aircraft. They could pull up to a tanker, you know, RC 130 and refuel. It has fuel tanks in the plane. It has a surgical suite with all the mixed gas and all that. It has the protective measures that you can use. Some of them are classified.

I don't know. We know the obvious ones like flares and such. Right. And it has a unpenetrable communication suite. Right. So you can hide. you know and you know the mic you gave me to do these podcasts you can hide all kinds of things in there now think about how much is in the wiring of a 747 yeah like I don't even know

to a technical yeah collection expert but I don't even think you can determine whether there's something in there yeah with all wires panels and circuits and such that are in a you know 747 so I mean maybe they could I don't know you can even use it for anybody that's in a situation like that would that would raid aircraft. Right. They're not a president, but like the secretary. Yeah. Defense anybody.

Defense. Yeah. Sky director. Why would they want to ride in that plane? I know it's nice and there's like gold stuff and like a cool bathroom. But like it's like we can't even speak on this without thinking maybe they're fucking listening. Right. So I don't even know what we use it for.

So maybe I don't know. But it's a security issue. and obviously it's a controversial one for the ethical and legal way. Yeah. All right. So talking about the other thing, I think the last stop, huge investment in U.S. AI by a company called G-42, I think it's an Amarotti deal. And they're going to be one of the biggest hubs in the world for AI databases.

So this, I mean, I don't focus a lot on economics. because I don't know it. But it is hugely important. And defense is essentially just part of it, if you really think about it. I mean, ultimately, it's the economics that rules today for most decisions of a nation state. And defense is basically there to protect the citizens, of course, but also its ability to freely conduct trade and advance its society and all that. It's in support. So I think it was successful, is my point.

And I think, you know, President Trump brought a lot home for the American people when it comes to investment. Yeah. On the other side of the Gulf or whatever, the straight, the Iran nuclear deal. You mentioned it a little bit. Right now, and I was talking to Mark Polymeropoulos on the last episode, it was a bit of an Iran-Hawk, which I'm sure you are more on that side as well. I mean, we have to assume that we're not going to get the perfect deal where, like, they completely don't enrich any uranium. And we at some, there has to be some kind of plan where it's like, you know, some kind of like arbitrary line where like we're going to take this up to this and we're going to make a deal. It sounds like they're more, more open to making a deal in terms of like wake off and the Trump administration as a whole.

I know the old school GOP, Iran Hawks are freaking out. Yes. And, you know, Israel's definitely pouring some lighter fluid on that one, too, for them. But, man, I mean, a deal to not have a nuclear weapon and to be the monitoring to be like real stringent and actually do it. I think it's a good thing, man. I don't think we should bomb Iran unless we know they're either very close to making it to developing a nuclear weapon and making it, you know, weaponizing it or, you know, just to like, I want to, the only time I would be like, hey, let's bomb them is if like we're on the brink. Because like we've said and we've seen that

even bombing them with our stuff, we'll bring it back three to six months. It's not going to completely, you know, derail their entire program. I don't know what the end game is, is really what I'm saying besides making a deal. So. Yeah. And I think ultimately a diplomatic Path Board is almost always the best path board, right? I mean, the people that, you know, talk about military action and go into war and all that stuff are generally people that never took part in military action went to war, right? Because it's not the answer to everything. You can't just say pull the trigger and then they just don't have a nuclear weapon

power. Right, yeah. It's just not the way it goes. And there's all sorts of potential consequences, like a large-scale regional war. or like the blocking of the Straits of Hormuz with sea mines, which Iran can definitely do, the attacking of our bases in the region by Iran. I'm not against the military option as kind of the last option,

but we really ought to exhaust all diplomatic efforts before we do that, because it's not an answer to all. It could be an answer and part of the issue, or solutions, so to speak, but it's not what I think some people, think, which is just like, we'll just pull the trigger. They'll go away and they won't have a bomb for now an attorney. So the big issues with negotiations. One, can Iran-rich et al, enrich uranium at all? Their stance, they want to be able to enrich up to the rate needed for nuclear power, civilian,

nuclear non-weapon power. The United States has already said that we do not, Secretary Rubio, and I think that was magnified by a resolution of House and 7th. That we don't want them to be able to enrich any uranium because in the event they have all this capacity and then they decide to race toward it, they would be able to do it. If they don't have the capacity, then they have to rely on an outside source,

which I think other countries, for example, like UAE, I think Saudi has already agreed to. Like they could get enriched uranium for a country that's already doing. Right. Right. And so could Iran. And obviously they have an alliance with Russia.

So they could get up to that level so they can use it for civilian energy, not military, civilian energy resources. That's one of the sticking points. The second sticking point that's always been an issue for the United States is ballistic missile programs and support the proxy forces by Iran, particularly the IRGC, Coz Force. So they support Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthi, exactly. It seems like the, especially on the proxy forces, Iran's hard line, they're going to keep their alliances. So we're going to have to decide what that's a game change. It was one of the reasons why we pulled out of the JCPOA in 2018.

So that's going to be controversial if we do not include it, but I don't think it will be included from the Iranians perspective. And maybe we just make sure that we just keep supporting our partner. like Israel in crushing them. Yeah. Right. Israel has crushed as well, has seriously crushed Hamas. And, you know, yes, there's still Houthis, but there's always going to be Houthis

around the mountains trying to shoot at us in Israel. The issue of ballistic missiles, it really comes down to a ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear ward. So maybe we should focus on that. Right. The sunset provisions. In the past, one of the criticisms of the 2015, JCPOA is that it's sunseted, like it just ended, and then Iran could go back to do what I want it.

So the U.S. is going to want this to be permanent. No nuclear war. For a minute where no nuclear, yeah. Right. I think that's one area that we could improve on the 2015. Yeah. Because, you know, politically they want to improve or they're going to be asked, why the hell did you get out of in 2018? You just basically went back to 2015.

I don't think they give a shit. Trump specifically. I don't think cares. So I think it might be the same exact agreement. He's going to tout it as a victory and better than Obama. Well, it probably will. He probably will tout it. But there's some places where they could improve.

Sure. Yeah. But there's a lot of places where they can. But that's one. Like it's not, it doesn't sunset for. Yeah. It's permanent. And then, you know, there's other provisions.

They're going to want the sections to come out immediately. We're going to want to stagger them because we're going to want to prove that they're not. We want proof. So the, you know, IAEA needs to be. have full access, not just to the sites we know, the Natanz, the Fort Al's, the other places that we know. But they're going to have to go around and look for places that we don't know, because obviously if they have some kind of covert site that's doing this, you have to feed the whole purpose of the agreement. So there needs to be proof. And then the sanctions new

need to come out. And if you think about it, the further that Iran gets away from being one of the most sanctioned countries on earth and their economy develops and gets more incorporated, and integrated into the world economy, the less they're going to want to turn around and go in the other direction. Right. Because we already talked about, ultimately,

economics rules. And sometimes not so much for the regimes that don't need it like a democracy does. But I think even they will see less pressure on their regime. For sure. And it'd be great if the regime just went away and the Iranian people overthrew it. But that's up to the Iranian people.

But ultimately, there'll be less pressure on the Iranian regime, I think, if the people feel like their economy is going on the right direction and their standard of deliverance. So there's a reason for both sides to want to do this, and I think we should be rooting for diplomacy. And yes, I mean, I consider myself pretty hawkish on Iran, and there'll be people that just won't accept anything,

whatever the agreement, but those people generally are part of the solution. They're just, you know, magnifier. Right, yeah, right on. Um, yeah, I mean, they, I mean, they could kind of like the regime, I don't know, and they're in probably could see what's going on in Syria as like an example of like, you can maybe be accepted into the international community, you know, relatively. Um, because like we just let those sanctions, we opened kimono, the sanctions on Syria that we've had for 40 years

during this past, you know, trip. Yeah. Which, you know, I get it. I get it. I get it. I understand why they're doing that and, you know, maybe a little bit of like, development and, you know, economic growth will help, like, make people a little bit more calm and not as, like, you know, homicidal against us.

But, again, like, it's such a complicated thing. Like, I really would love, especially. Syria because Syria over the last 15 years it is a smorgas board of different alliances, you know, who's cool with who, who's not cool with who,

but we're cool with them now for a little bit and we'll see how that goes. Somebody can write an incredible book about what goes on in Syria because like, yeah, obviously Bashar al-Assad is a big part of it, but it's like so much more. So And I don't know how I feel about this guy who was in the in al-Qaeda.

Yeah, he started. It's now the, is now the president, the indefinite president for until we see a difference. So we see something happen being accepted into the, you know, I don't know how I feel about MBS and him giving each other pounds. Like they're the best of friends, you know, because we all know and you don't have to say anything about Sadie's role in 9-11, right? we don't have to say anything or they're on the periphery at least. So I don't know how I feel about that. It's like mixed feelings, right? Because I live in New York.

I remember the data towers came down, right? So it's very interesting. But at the same time, I do understand that, you know, you have enemies. And at some point, you need, you know, you make peace and you make deals and you, you negotiate with your enemies at some point, right? So, yeah, you're right. Syria's extraordinarily complicated. I would say from the Syria perspective that it is trending now in the right direction. And, you know, that's starting from a very deep hole.

Oh, yeah. It's been completely torn apart at war, hundreds of thousands killed and fled, massive immigration issue for Europe. I think the book is still out on Ahmed al-Shara or Chalani, depending on perspective. he seems to be able to impress people that he meets worldwide, obviously an intelligence person, intelligent person. He, you know, he's staying the right things. He's doing a lot of the right things. And Syria needs that right now to go to the next phase.

And the idea of sanctions removal, I do think, was fair. because they were imposed because of the Assad regime. Right. It was dominated by Russia and Iran and brutalized the civilian population. So the Caesar sanctions, for example. So Syria cannot, and I think President Trump said this, they cannot advance without what these sanctions on there. Absolutely. I agree. Yeah.

So the Syrian people deserve it. Al-Shaara, I would look at it more as a, as a need for the Syrian people. And then we gave them a list. The Trump administration gave them a list. I think the Biden administration too, but of what they expected to see. And now we expect to see it.

And part of that is leading as a leader for a comprehensive Syria, you know, all of it. So that's a positive. And there needs to be elections, right? Ultimately, Syrians need to decide who's going to be the leader, not just the person with the strongest military factors. And maybe he'll do so good that they'll elect him. And then he's elected later. And that's it.

Right. So that's certainly a possibility. But it's going to come down to his individual actions and keeping his word. Other positives, PKK, you know, the U.S. designated Kurdish terrorist organization is essentially disbanded. Right. So there's a lot of things trending in the right direction in Syria, again, starting from a very deep poll that I think the world should be happy with, right? Yeah, it's definitely better than a show.

Right. Yeah. Yeah. A low standard. For sure. Yeah. A low standard. But that doesn't mean that, I mean, Syria could be a bustling, burgeoning place like

it once was in the past, not so distant past. So I think it's a good thing. But I think, you know, trust but verify is kind of thing when it comes to. Yeah. That'll show president. I'm sure. Yeah, we'll see what happens. I mean, listen, honestly,

I'm kind of okay if he keeps a lid in Syria and, like, he helps us with ISIS and doesn't fuck with the SDF that much, which I'm assuming will probably need a new name. Yeah, the other issue, that's another issue of tension between the U.S. and Israel. Israel didn't want us to remove attention and didn't want the president.

Well, Israel is operating in Syria pretty heavily that we don't really talk about because there's just so much happening. Kind of get swept under the rug a little bit because it's just, I mean, how many fronts can you fucking have, I guess? But Israel's trying to find out. So I would love to get into that, too. I'm going to have to. I'm going to just get Charles Lister on and see what the story is with like, why are they hitting, you know, areas in Syria and stuff like that?

They are having talks, too, just, you know, the, I guess secret talks. There were secret talks between Israel and Alshara's government and stuff like that. that to try to figure it out. Alshar did say that he would be open to like joining the Abraham Accords and stuff like that and opening up stuff. So he's definitely saying the right things. And I think he needs to because like he wants to be a statesman, right? He wants to.

He doesn't want to. He knows how to play with his audience. For sure. In a negative way, he's talking to President Trump, who's one of the bigger accomplishments of his first term was Abraham Acorns. Right. Right. So I think there is a possibility they could, but it's really going to take Saudi Arabia, I think, moving first. Right.

And I don't think Saudi will move until there's permanent ceasefire in Gaza and some movement on the Palestinian front, you know, two-state solution. I know we're far from that. Yeah. But I do think that's certainly a ceasefire in Gaza is going to be required before Saudis really start talking about the. Abraham Accords, but it can happen. It definitely can happen. And you got to go in with that, which will, you know, once, if this all happened, it would, it would stabilize the Middle East, not as a very good thing for the Middle East

and for the United States. I hope it does happen, man. Jesus. Anything else? Oh. Oh, shout out. Yeah. Yeah, I watch.

before we started the podcast, I was asking you about this restaurant that I saw a movie last night, me and my wife did call, that I texted to you. Known as is the name of the movie, right? On Netflix? Yes. And the restaurant that it's based on is called Enoteca Maria. Yeah. So the concept of the movie and it's got Vin Flan, who's always awesome, is a true story about a guy who started a restaurant, you know, midlife. named it on her his mother and then used all grandmothers,

which known as I think is Italian for grandmother, right? No, no, yeah. Yeah. You guys call yours, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But known as is Italian for grandmother. He just brought grandmothers into cook. They're like, that's cool. Their favorite dishes, right?

So it was all grandma's cooking, which is exactly the kind of food out. Which is hilarious. See, because I'm a cynical maniac. I just picture them like sweat shop labor, just have like these 80 old grandmothers in the back fucking making sauce sweating. No, I think it's a little small restaurant. Obviously,

they're not going to pick that. No, of course. You know, at the end of the movie, although I could probably live forever on Italian grandmother's cooking, but they also have other grandmothers, right?

Yeah. Probably Greeks and, you know, Lebanese come in and. Oh, that's sick. That is cool. Yeah.

I didn't know that. I thought it was just Italian. No, that's cool. I think it's probably. I'm married in Italian Italian. Sure. At the end of,

you know, when they do the credits at the end, they talk about, you know, Oh, that is cool. And other,

uh, I mean, that is, I mean, how could you not like that movie, right? No, that's,

so next time we go to New York, we're going to go to New York. All right. We're going to make me go to Staten Island. That's right. I didn't know that was such a big deal. It's not a big deal.

It's not a big deal. It's not a big deal. But we like in Brooklyn, we like to make fun of Staten Island. We like to make fun of all the other boroughs. Because there's a reason it's called Kings County. So just everybody remember that. It's because we're number one.

Okay. That's what I tell everybody for libraries. It's human nature to have a rivalry for every possible thing. Every place. Any kind of arbitrary thing, yeah, there's going to be a rivalry of some sort. But, I mean, everyone's coming together because the Knicks are playing well. Because I can be, I am from Brooklyn, but I'm not a Brooklyn Nets fan. They're from Jersey.

Yeah, they're just, they're just, they're just, they're just visiting. Oh, all right. So we'll be able to get you out of Brooklyn. Absolutely. I'll get, I'll cross that bridge. I'll pay the toll, too. Tolls on me. Don't worry about it.

Guys, don't forget. Check out the movie. Check out the place. If you're in, uh, Staten Island or in the area, it's, that tough. That first one's tough. Uh, Enoteca Maria. Inoteca, Maria. On Staten Island.

Um, don't forget to check out. out Mick, Lobo, Fogbo, all the Mick's publications, the links will be in the description. You can check it out there. All the other guys, any and all information about the show and the guys, links are in the description. Do us a favor, like and subscribe. If you're listening to us, even on audio, you could rate it five stars and subscribe there as well. It helps. Any kind of engagement helps.

And the best way to support the show, patreon.com slash teamhouse. You get both a team house and eyes on geopolitics. absolutely add free get early access to it both video and audio and you help support the show so that's my house cleaning not that we didn't sell it enough already but anotechum means in italian means wine library okay interesting yeah fuck all right no that's yeah that's a tough name that's a tough name but i like it known as is a better name let's be honest but there's a lot of nonas like restaurants and pizzerias that are called nonas. Right.

Yeah. And I'll shout out my old, my family's restaurant in Brooklyn. I've lead Greek kitchen. All of our recipes are from grandmothers too. We don't got. Well, my family does. Yeah. Oh, I'm going there, too.

Yeah. It's on the Smith Street in Brooklyn. Yeah. It's legit. Good. We don't make our grandmothers work like these Italians do, but we use their recipes. I'm just playing. Check out the places that out. I'm just fucking around. All right, buddy.

We will. We got two places to visit. Yeah, no, we're going to eat good. Guys, it's Jack. I just want to talk to you for a moment about how you can support the show. If you've been watching it, enjoying it, but you'd like to get a little bit more involved and help us continue to do this. You can check out our Patreon. It is patreon.com slash the teamhouse. And for $5 a month, you can get access to all of these episodes of the team. Team House, ad-free. The same goes with our affiliated podcast, Eyes On, with Andy Milburn,

Jason Lyons, Mick Mulroy. That one, you will also get all of those episodes ad-free. And you support the channel and the show, and we really appreciate it. The Patreon members are literally what has helped this company, this small business, survive, especially during our early years. And you are what continues to help this thing going, even as we navigate the turbulent world of YouTube advertising. So we really appreciate all of you guys. There's going to be a link down in the description to that Patreon page. And there is also going to be a link to our new merch shop. So if you guys want to go and get some Team House merchandise, we got stickers and we also have patches. And I should mention, if you sign up for Patreon at $10 a month, we will mail you this

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