The Team House - Steve Witkoff is a Liability & Israel is About to Occupy All of Gaza | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

Episode Date: August 11, 2025

In this episode, the guys discuss the complexities of current geopolitical negotiations, focusing on the Ukraine conflict and the implications of U.S. foreign policy. They analyze the role of NATO in countering Russian aggression and delve into the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, particularly the situation in Gaza. The conversation highlights military strategies, humanitarian concerns, and the need for a cohesive approach to peace negotiations.Brunt Workwear Get $10 Off @BRUNT with code TEAMHOUSE at https://www.bruntworkwear.com/TEAMHOUSE  #BRUNTpodSubscribe to our new newsletter!!!!https://teamhousepodcast.kit.com/joinSupport the show on Patreon:⬇️https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouseNew merch, patches, and stickers! ⬇️https://theteamhouse-shop.fourthwall.comFind Mick Mulroy here: Fogbow ⬇️https://fogbow.com/Lobo Institute ⬇️https://www.loboinstitute.org/Twitter ⬇️https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCALinkedIn ⬇️https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/Bluesky ⬇️https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.socialMick’s publications ⬇️https://www.loboinstitute.org/publications/publications-of-michael-mick-patrick-mulroy/Find Andy Milburn here: Twitter ⬇️https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8LinkedIn ⬇️https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023Substack ⬇️https://amilburn.substack.com/Andy’s book ⬇️https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-OperationsBluesky ⬇️https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.socialFind Jason Lyons here: LinkedIn ⬇️https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?uBluesky ⬇️https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social"Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio"00:00 Introduction to Geopolitical Tensions01:57 Negotiation Failures and Miscommunication05:53 The Role of NATO and International Alliances12:00 The Importance of Unified Strategy18:13 Understanding Russian Aggression and Historical Context27:12 Escalation in Ukraine: Ongoing Attacks29:45 Transitioning to the Israel-Gaza Situation30:54  Israeli Military Strategy and Occupation Concerns37:01 Internal Dissent within the IDF39:14 The Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza47:03 Military Operations and Civilian Impact55:27 Negotiating Ceasefires and Future ProspectsBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support.

Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. We got Andy Milburn here today. We got Mick Mulroy, myself, Dimitoucant tacos. A lot happening. Lots happened since in the last week. Putin's going to meet with Trump in Alaska. Steve Wyckoff, absolute disaster negotiator, in my opinion. He was in Russia last week.

And now he's in Spain with a Qatari PM talking about Gaza and a possible. end there, which we'll get to after. I mean, this guy's plate, you would think, like, oh, he's like, he's been a foreign service employee his whole life, but for the amount of stuff that he's actually doing and the Secretary of State seems to not be doing. But no, he's a business guy. And it's unbelievable how this happens. We were talking a little bit before we started recording with me and Mick about, like,

just, it seems like this guy's just rolling up to a meeting with Putin and whoever else. by himself like he's trying to negotiate a car loan, you know? It's unbelievable, frankly. You mean without guidance? Yeah, or an interpreter. The last one, he didn't even have his own interpreter. He's the Kremlin interpreter. It's like, bro, what the fuck?

I'm a dummy. And it's like, I would tell him, like, I need an interpreter here, guys, from my embassy. Like, what are we doing? You're right. I mean, you and I need an interpreter when we told. Yeah. So anyway, what are you guys tracking with that? There's a lot to go into.

There's a really good article from build, B-I-L-D.de. It's a German media outlet, like really digging into what was going on in that meeting with Wikoff and Putin. Like just a loss in translation or like Wikov didn't understand what Putin was saying. And he gave, it seems like he gave away the fucking farm. It's just insane for me to fucking watch and listen and see that this is like a real guy that represents our government. And not a trade deal, it's actual war where people are fucking dying every single day. Anyway, over to you guys. What do you guys think?

Thoughts, comments. Well, I think we've got to start with how we got here, at least the last, you know, several months, right? The U.S. proposed a ceasefire. It was in March. Ukraine took it. Russia didn't. We've had how many deadlines it's coming past that the U.S. is given Russia. and they haven't changed their actions at all, right?

If anything, they're increasing the intensity of the conflict, both in the East militarily and direct attacks, terrorist attacks, on civilian populations in the major, you know, urban centers. And right at the precipice of when we're going to put on these secondary sanctions, which really need to be against all the countries that buy the significant amount, of Russian energy, so not just India, but China and potentially Turkey to really have an effect. Putin says he wants to meet and we meet him without any like starting the secondary sanctions, demanding a tactical pause, if you will, you know, I mean, if we don't do any of those things,

and this is just a win for Russia, right? They're now equal footing with the president of the United States, which they are not. But that's what it appears. They're going to have a meeting in Alaska, so on U.S. soil, but putting them on the same par, seriously problematic in the sense that we're talking about swapping land and concessions of land because it's all Ukrainian land. So it would all be concessions for Ukraine without, including the Ukrainians. Just we can go into details, but even President Zelensky can't just give away land. Not that he wants to, and he's made it clear that he doesn't. In fact, he called any agreement to that effect stillborn in his actual text.

But he can't even if he wanted to, right? They have to modify the Constitution. I did the research on this because I know I'm talking about all week under Article 7. They have to modify the Constitution to even have a referendum under Article 73 to even have. And there's no way the Ukrainians, in my opinion, and I think Andy could probably talk better to the pulse of the Ukrainians, are going to do this, right? And either way, they have to be part of it. And if they do concede anything, they has to come with really strong security guarantees, which I think would include membership in NATO, as well as the coalition of the willing, the 30 countries that are willing to put troops in Ukraine. There's a lot that needs to go into this. If I'm going to throw out a positive, it's better than we're talking than not. But right now, unless we get something concrete out of this, which includes a ceasefire, which includes real concessions on the part of the Russians, not just the Ukrainians, where the U.S. is actually advocating for Ukraine, then this is a win, unfortunately, for President Putin. We need to make sure that it's not. Andy?

Yeah, it's really, I mean, it's embarrassing, frankly, isn't it? You know, I mean, little things like having an interpreter, having a note taker, and look, everyone makes mistakes, right? Everyone mishears, and I know Putin's a master at getting people to hear what they want to hear when they speak to him. But the actual, you know, and you're talking about the build article, the build article talks about, you know, Putin made a demand for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Kersong. and Saperesia, right? And Wittkhoff misinterpreted that as saying that Russian forces would withdraw from Kersan and Zaporizia. Well, Russian forces are in Saperesia province. They're not in Zaporizia city and they're not in Kersan. So it kind of wouldn't make sense for the Russian state. They're going to withdraw, right? And then there seems to be this weird misunderstanding between Vance,

Rubio and Wittkoff on what actually transpired in that meeting and what they should tell the European leaders because I think frankly they don't know what transpired in that meeting. Even Wittkoff, who was there is not clear. He doesn't understand who made concessions to do what, you know. And there's this weird discussion too from Wittkoff about, well, the Ukrainians are going to give up Danesk in return for Russians were withdrawing from Zeparizier and Kersan. Well, Ukrainians don't hold the Netsk.

You know, I mean, it's so the It's just like a basic understanding of what the fuck's going on and you're supposed to be the special envoy to doing this. You know, first of all, look at a map before you go in, right? Understand who has what. I mean, some basics, bring an interpreter,

have a note taker before you start, really. It's, yeah. Professional policy people that follow Ukraine daily every day and that would pass you the note saying everything that Andy just said, right? If you didn't know it, they're passing the notes and actually they're not, they don't control that or this is how it's usually done.

Or, and also a military advisor, you know, direct active duty that you can be right there sitting behind you. You can ask questions. They can prep you. These are how it's normally done. As I honestly feel, I don't want to toot my own horn, but I feel like I could do a better job at the negotiating table. I really do. Because I'd have all those things.

I'd have Mick and Andy behind me grumbling. And I would be yelling at Poon. Like, that's what I would be doing. And I would have some understanding. I would make sure I'm studied up on the fucking topic I'm talking about. Yeah, it's, I mean, it's, it is embarrassing. Look, you know, I, I'm not. I'm not arguing about this from a political standpoint.

Of course, you know where my sympathy is lying. You know that I don't trust the Russians for some reason. And that even, and I agree with Mick that rushing out there to talk to Putin as soon as he makes a comment and dropping all talk about sanctions is to the Russians undoubtedly a sign of weakness. But let's set that all aside for the time being and just say, yeah, this is. just incredibly embarrassing. Yeah, and it's also kind of head scratching how, like, we're all so tough on like the EU and allies. Canada.

Canada. Canada's right there. Canada's literally 40 minutes from where I am. They fly Canadian flags and US flags in it down. I mean, the Canadians are unbearably smug, and they really are. I mean, I know that. But they're not actually an adversary. Let's be honest.

I mean, you know, I mean, they're annoying. They're annoyingly nice. But, but yeah, we've, it's just head scratch. And we're just like, count whatever, whatever they need, you know, whatever. You guys want full sanction relief? Sure. We'll put that on the table out there in the press before we even fucking meet in Alaska, which I don't even know what the fuck that's going to be about.

They're going to have some bullshit meeting. They're going to come out of it again and be like, oh, yeah, we made a lot real progress. and Poon's not going to do a fucking thing. Meanwhile, EU is not involved. Zelensky and Ukraine is not involved. It's like, dude, I can understand why people outside of America see us as like an imperialistic, like we say what we want and we do what we want and it doesn't matter what you have, like what you have to say about it because like we're making decisions about another country

without them at the table. Well, you know, I think one of the, one of the, I mean, I find it. disturbing and I find it sad as an American who spent a lot of time in the Middle East is that, you know, I happen to be in the Middle East now. And I can tell you talking to friends who are both Americans, but mainly non-Americans who are highly placed, you know, to include in Middle East and embassies in in D.C. or in governments out here, that we have lost a lot of standing, a lot of standing. I mean, the The Brits have, right now, have way more wester than us,

you know, from the point of view of Middle Eastern, several Middle Eastern governments who I could name, but won't hear, who are traditionally our allies. And that is disturbing. I mean, even the Brits, you know, and the Brits lost, you know, I mean, the Brits made a stand quite rightly on Sudan, right, with UAE and lost some coupos a few months ago with, them, but they're back in favor because, frankly, the United States, no one knows where we stand.

I mean, it's frightening. So we have a, we have, what, five days before the meeting. What I would advocate for is a full on meeting with President Zelensky with President Trump. We need to know where they want to be so that we can advocate for their position, right? I don't think we should, obviously, I don't think we should be neutral in this. We can, but we are the United States and that carries a lot of wasta. If we know, and not publicly talk about it, because that's not, you know, at least the way I look at negotiations, a very helpful thing. But have President Zelensky talk to President Trump, know where they want to be at the end of this, and then have the U.S. steer it that way.

all with the whole while knowing that any concessions has to go through this whole process in ukraine so uh and this idea that we're going to take stuff off the table because russia asked for it hell no they're not taking stuff off the table so why aren't we saying full nato membership actual nato forces on the ground in ukraine yep you're not getting them funding back because you destroyed half their country so it's going of them and you know we're going to start a fund that you're going to fund to help repair the rest like we need to go in with a maximalist side right i don't even think that's maximalist but you see what i mean like it's it's they're set in the entire agenda um now the they just met in london uh with the vice president and a lot of the you know national security advisors uh for european countries

and they're coming up with their own and europe has a plan and that does include going toward NATO membership, right? So, and we need to talk to Europe, right? They're traditional, historic NATO allies. There should be probably a meeting with just one on one with the presidents and a meeting with, you know, key leaders in Europe. And there may be a combined one, all leading up to the discussion with Putin. And Putin wouldn't want to hear any of this, right? He wants to go in there without any of this happening. So what, which means we should definitely do it and set the president up, our president up with the knowledge and where we all agree this should go so that he can go and do his negotiations.

That could turn this around. Maybe even had Zelensky in Alaska, you know, maybe a meeting in the same place before they meet just to show that we are completely linked up with our partners. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. We can turn that around before Friday. Yeah. Russia does a really good job of playing the victim when they're clearly, absolutely the fucking aggressor and the party that's at fault here.

They do a fucking great job of that. They're also great at breaking agreements, which is why there needs to be ironclad security assurances or this is a waste of time. As soon as they think it's to their advantage, they'll start the conflict again. So they need to be French, German, Polish, whoever forces in Ukraine, once. this ceasefire stops or this cessation of hostility stops, in other words, permanent. And they need to have a path toward NATO. It's not up to Russia who goes in NATO. I mean, we just saw Sweden and Finland join.

They didn't want that to happen. Tough, right? They caused it by invading Ukraine. So strategically, this is already a disaster for Russia. So they want to salvage something out of this. But strategically, it was a terrible idea. Hey, guys, I want to thank a new sponsor that we have. today it's brunt workwear they make great boots great workwear if you're if you're a worker like

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Thank you to Brunt Workwear for supporting the show. Yeah. And it's only like in the article it's called the sectoral ceasefires. Like what the fuck does that even mean? Sorry I'm red hot about this, but it's like such nonsense. that's coming out of Russia, it absolutely makes no sense whatsoever. And it does seem like there's a riff, Wyckoff and Rubio are kind of like putting Europe or, or I'm sorry, just Rubio emphasized having Europe involved in the discussions like you

just mentioned, Mick. And Vance and Wickhoff are like, no, it's like, dude, it's their continent. Like they, they're the neighbors. Like, what's next if Russia wins in Ukraine? They're going after fucking little-ass NATO countries that are in Europe. What's the next step? There's a potential, I don't know, that if this doesn't come to an end and Russia keeps gaining, that actual European forces could go into Kiev. It could.

I would be ready for it. I'd be planning for it right now. Like there's no way that the rest of Europe should let Ukraine lose, like lose, lose, lose. Right. So this is one of those things that seems far away, but could be really quickly become up close. right so uh russia decides to attack a nato country we're in we're in we're treated uh under nato article five we're in and us we want to violate our completely violate the most important treaty we've ever signed in the most important aspect of it and i don't think the u.s wants to do that so we have

a vested interest not only in supporting ukraine but making sure this doesn't expand how you can be fucking the yeah the most important treaty we've signed And the, you know, as we discussed before, the only time that Article 5 has been acted upon previously was in favor of the United States after the 9-11 attacks. You know, they don't stepped up to the plate on our behalf. I mean, and by a tenuous chain of logic, too, frankly, I mean, we weren't under existential threat. So it is, yeah, it's a frightening thought that. US might not on our our I know I'm not saying that we wouldn't but I'm just saying it's just a frightening thought that we wouldn't step up to the plate and you know to mix point yeah the

feeling about the threat from Russia is hard to understand here in the United States where we're separated by an ocean but for the Poles and the Baltic countries in particular It is, there is acute anxiety and well justified. I mean, historically, you think about, you think about how those countries have suffered from the Russians. And there's no doubt about it. I mean, in the case of the Baltics, Putin is absolutely regards their separation from the Soviet Union as being a big mistake. who regards the breakdown of the Warsaw Pact as being, you know, the most tragic thing in his own words. I mean, I'm paraphrasing in recent Russian history to him was to break up of the Soviet Union.

I mean, you have to understand that to understand what is motivating him. Yeah. Where do you guys? So, I mean, the way this administration has talked about NATO, certain aspects of it, certain factions in it have talked about NATO, have talked about NATO for a long time. would you be surprised that if they invaded Estonia that we didn't fucking gear up and get ready or you know really put a hundred percent in maybe not send a half a million troops but air any any kind of assets would you be shocked if we went behind you know turned our back on article five I wouldn't be

I would be shocked I think we we would honor our commitment if not literally every other agreement we have around the world would be in jeopardy. Right. I think a lot of it was rhetoric about Europe's lack, which is true, lack of supporting their own defense, which wasn't just President Trump, but it was President Obama, President Biden, President Bush. Also the same thing. Why? Because Europe had said, we got the biggest brother on the block.

we can spend it on, I don't know, social welfare programs, whatever they want, giant pensions and not on their own defense. I think one thing that Trump administration can claim at least partial credit for is now they spend money on their own defense, right? I think it's probably mostly because the invasion of Ukraine, but fair. Either way, it's probably a combination of the two. So I think a lot of the anti-NATO rhetoric was about that. I can't imagine that we, I don't even know how we would not honor our treaty legally.

I mean, that's a, that's the point of a treaty. So, but to your point is it like all in, we're sending over the, you know, 82nd Airborne and the First Marine Division or are we supporting air? I think it would be a combination based on how it's going, you know, but we would have to be all in on defending our NATO allies. And to Andy's point, I mean, not only did. they join us in like say Afghanistan after 9-11? They were in Iraq,

which most Americans don't understand how Iraq had anything to do with 9-11, right? Yet NATO went to Iraq, right? And they lost, contrary to some of the comments, which are just completely insensitive, I guess is the word. NATO lost a lot of forces fighting alongside us. Yeah. In Afghanistan and Iraq because of their commitment to Article 5. That matters.

Yeah, they didn't send just like, fucking equipment, right? They sent soldiers there that died. Yeah, I've been on operations where they died. I mean, Mick, let me ask you something. I know you weren't a big boy, you know, secretary or deputy secretary, you know, whatever. You were still up. You were there and you were in the rooms.

There was a phone call on August 7th between officials from the U.S. government, including special envoy with cough, Secretary of State Rubio and Vice President J.D. Vance and the European partners. the American side was perceived as chaotic and disunited. That's crazy. How are you on the phone, even with your allies? You're on the phone and you're supposedly representing once an American government, an American administration, and you're unorganized and not united on the phone with your partners.

Even though they are allies and stuff and it's cool to jam and try and figure things out together, you've got to have some kind of fucking stance about how to. to proceed. Yeah. I mean, I don't know if it's accurate, right? So we'll start with that. I'm sure they would say it's not. But normally, even, you know, that's the secretary level and obviously the vice president.

We do all of our policy coordination internally first, right? And it's usually in the National Security Council, right? Which is kind of been gutted. But it starts, you know, depending on how quick they're moving, it starts in a lower level. All of the issues are discussed, all of the potential pluses and minuses, if you will, are discussed. The intel community provides some sanity to like the underlying facts, right? So people just aren't making shit up, to be frank. And then if everybody agrees, that's the plan. Like, if you can't bring everything up to the top or that it's non-practical. Now, every

deputy assistant like I was, is supposed to know what our boss thinks, right? So it's not just us deciding. We're supposed to have an idea of where the secretary of your department or agency. And then it gets up to the top. If it's something that is moving quickly, it's like this is, then they would have gotten together, you'd hope, beforehand. And they have decided their position, the U.S. position. If they can't, if there's disagreement, the president ends the discussion, right? There's always one person at the top. And Then they go into the discussion with their allies knowing that this is a U.S. position, not the vice president or the secretary of states or the special envoy's position. Because that would look chaotic. You know, they can't be three different American positions. Yeah. So I don't know if it's accurate, but if that's the case, that isn't. Andrew?

Yeah, I mean, there's little more to say. We've said it all, right? We haven't solved the problem, but we've certainly, you know, expressed why, again, why. negotiating in the way we are with the Russians is just so mistaken. I mean, it's almost a totology, right, that the Putin, the Russians generally historically, but Putin in particular only understands the threat of repercussions. He only understands his strength, bottom line, I suppose. You know, we talked about the examples in the past,

the killing of hundreds of Russian contractors in Syria after Grasimov was warned that if they, you know, if they crossed a certain line in Syria near a U.S. base that we would strike them. And we did. And it didn't escalate things. Actually, it toned things down because the Russians called our bluff as they do. And we responded. And the same thing with the Turks, when the Turks told Putin, if you keep flying aircraft over our territory, we're going to start shooting them down. And the Turks did. And it didn't result in war escalation. Putin backpedaled and negotiated. Sadly, that is, that's the way he thinks. But we just. We don't even learn from recent history. Yeah. Make anything else, Dad?

I know you have the saying you've said a couple times about if you feel, like, if you feel steel, stop. If you feel mush, keep going. That's like what the Russians. Lenin, I think. Yeah. Also, the fucking absolute dick move was Putin giving Wickoff the Order of Lenin for the kid that died. I was from America whose mom is like a deputy director at the CIA or something. absolute like you're just a he's he's he's playing fucking games and like i don't know

yeah i don't understand how you just don't peepy whack this guy for lack of a better term like i mean the the guy was apparently mentally you know had some mental issues right so he joined um it's just a sad thing to try to it's it's pathetic it says a lot more about Putin than any other aspect of that whole story i'd love to tell us Yeah, absolutely just disgusting. I want to be a fly in the wall to see, like, how Wickclough took it. He probably had no idea what the fuck it was. He was just like, thank you so much.

I would not be surprised. I'm going to be, I'm going to speculate a little bit. He should have just turn it down. Yeah. There's anything else you guys have on Ukraine, say it now, forever, hold your peace because we're going to move to Israel. We're going to me next weekend. I'm sure we'll be talking about it.

And I think, you know, just a reminder of all this has been going on, the Russian of being absolutely smashing Kiev and other population centers, you know, night after night. And again, I mean, massive drone and missile attacks, all of which are targeting civilian areas. I mean, I know that sounds like a naive thing to say, but there's not even any pretense to be going after military infrastructure or even infrastructure. You know, these things are targeting some of the most heavily populated. areas within Kiev. Yeah, and on that,

you know, Andy's point, maybe that's, maybe the next time we discuss anything with Putin, he has to agree to a ceasefire. Because if not,

it's just a tactic to continue the war, make it look like he has some interest in a ceasefire when he doesn't have to pay any consequences. Right now, zero. Just keep fighting.

Yeah. I did see a report right before we got on that India is actually starting to buy oil from God, where else? Not Russia. Thank God.

Yeah. I don't remember where the other countries were, so forgive me. But I don't know how true that is. I don't know how long that'll last. You know what I mean? Like there's a lot to be said.

There's a 1.5 billion people in India and they need fuel. Yeah. Maybe we can make up for the deficit. Yeah. I mean, anything we can to like make it harder for this guy to, stop moving around and doing things with impunity

because it's like an absolute fucking joke what's going on. Even just not letting like the Ukrainians shoot the hardware they have into Russia proper. Like getting like letting them off the leash and letting them do it. Obviously tell them not civilian targets but military targets like spider web stuff like that.

Like go for it. Fucking open season. That should have been done a long time ago. All right. moving to Israel, Gaza, what's going on? I'm going to editorialize a little bit. It seems a bit like Israel is going to try and fully occupy Gaza. I think they're calling up about 30,000 or more reservists for this. I think if you ask me, they're saying the quiet part out loud that they didn't say for the last two years is that they want to fully occupy Gaza.

I saw Netanyahu, he was on Fox News, he was talking about what they want. Hamas destroyed. They want a civilian government that has nothing to do with Hamas there, but security by Israel. So, I mean, I want to be six foot four, you know, like thing, you know,

but it's never going to happen. So what are your thoughts on what's going on here because it seems like it's about to rev up big time? I think it's, I think it's, well, obviously it's a, I won't comment about either ethically Netanyahu's

rationale for doing this but he has significant backing from the far right in Israel and there's this this feeling that the only thing that the most important thing to come out of this because they realize that they cannot they cannot completely obliterate Hamas. You know, we've talked about this,

and is to at least come out of it with land, right? It's kind of the feeling that, hey, we need strategic depth, that the policy of withdrawal since 1977 was misplaced, and our security lies in land. And it's also, of course, there's this continued feeling of, We need the land and we need Palestinians completely off it. What is really interesting is the pushback that is coming from the chief of staff of the IDF, Lieutenant General.

Samir. Samir. Yeah, Yal Samir. So he is saying, and he's saying this publicly, you know, you mentioned 30,000 reservists. Samir is saying it's going to take. 200,000 reservists to be recalled, all right? And Mick's already commented on the effect that this has had on the Israeli economy of the last two years. So to recall 200,000 reservists and it's going to take at least 90 days to do that.

So that's a significant recall. And then Netanyahu and Smoldrich and his allies are outraged that Samir has spoken out publicly about this. And, I mean, Zemir's just recently taken over, right? I mean, you know, the last three or four months from Helivi, who was the chief of staff during 7 October. And so, and he's popular. And it seems as though, I mean, the head of the IDF is always a public, a huge public figure in Israel. And he is very popular.

He's popular among the soldiers. And he's popular among the Israeli population who feel as though that he is a voice. of reason. And for he's stated, you know, that's just one reason he said. He said, hey, listen, it's going to take all of this. It's going to be hugely disruptive. And we are not prepared to be an occupying power. Right. So you recall 200,000 reservists. You take Gaza City, but who's going to lock it down? Who's going to run it? And I mean, these are, you know, these seem like very basic questions and no one can answer them. I mean, Israel has. as a very, you know, when they first, I suppose, I mean, they first went into the business,

Israel went in the business of occupation post-67, you know, with the West Bank and Gaza. But then, most famously, from 1982 to 2000, the occupation of Lebanon. And it became a tremendously unpopular concept in Israel that Israelis were occupying territory, not from just an ethical standpoint, but the fact that they were making themselves, target and taking a just a slur, you know, a continuous attrition of casualties to no end. And so Zemir is saying, hey, look, we'll lock down, you know, it's going to take us all of this to take Gaza City. And by the way, Hamas is not gone.

And we're going to be taking casualties all the time. And it's going to be an indefinite occupation. And there is no plan to take over from the military. So these 200,000 reserves, no one can say when they're going to be able to go back. to civilian life. You know, that's number one. Number two, there is, finally, there is a strong feeling growing within the IDF and among reservists and active duty that continued operations in Gaza are counterproductive. And there are those who are saying that from the standpoint of they are endangering hostages further, you know, there's a feeling, hey, look, if it's even

if it's only a couple of dozen hostages who are still alive, we need to get them back, and we need to get the bodies of those who have died back, and this is not the way to do it. And then, you know, kind of surprisingly, there's also the beginnings of the backlash on moral grounds, the fact that so many Palestinians have been killed. I don't think it's anyone's disputing this by Israeli forces as they line up or go to collect humanitarian aid. And yes, some of those killings have come from Hamas, undoubtedly. Some have even come from American contractors, apparently.

But the majority of them have come from the Israeli forces. And there are those within the IDF who are saying, hey, listen, we've got, this is achieving nothing. And it's undermining us. It's undermining our image. And there isn't, you know, to begin with, there was this tremendous feeling. of vengeance throughout Israeli society. And that seems to be waning a little bit now.

And I think the Israeli population was shielded by the effects of the famine. Of course, they were sure they weren't suffering, but they weren't singing it on television, right? But now they're getting more

and more news about it. It's clear that even if the IDF did not go in there, do what they're doing, and Gideon's Chariots, Operation Gideon's Chariots, even if the intent wasn't to starve the population, the fact that the population is starving

is a direct consequence of IDF operations. It was intended, as we talked about last time, to be in a population control, but the IDF has performed poorly and hasn't been able to do what they intended to do. And the result is that you have this famine, and I think a number of Israelis, you know, I can't quote figures or percentage of population,

but enough for there to be voices of dissent now. There have always been voices of dissent on behalf of the hostages, but I think now we're saying also voices of dissent on behalf of what the hell are we doing, you know, this is wrong, which is encouraging, you know, it's pretty late, certainly too late for however many tens and tens of thousands of Palestinians, innocent Palestinians who have died, but at least it's welcome. Yeah. And if you look at Samir, which he might as well come up publicly because he leaked so much

was leaked about his concern, the chief of staff that is about this. But it's also, you can see former prime ministers, former Mossad chiefs, chief of staffs of the IDF are coming out basically saying, you've accomplished everything you're going to accomplish militarily. in Gaza. So you're just extending this, this conflict, uh, for other reasons. There are others that believe that this, because it's going to take, at least what I'm hearing, it's going to start on the anniversary. So October 7th, it's going to take that quite a bit to call up all the reservists Sandy's talking about. And then of course to cordon off Gaza City, which is a major

main effort. Uh, there's about 900,000 people in guys. Gaza City, that this is a way to put pressure on the whole negotiation. Hopefully that's the case and that this doesn't happen. If it does happen, then it looks like the sequence will be mobilize these reservists, Kornow, Gaza City, there's a potential, this is what humanitarian is current concerned out. They're going to use the lack of any food going into Gaza City to force the exodus of civilians out of Gaza City.

I'm not saying that's the plan, but that's the concern. That happens. And then we have what could be a extraordinarily violent, costly fight, urban fight in Gaza City, which would certainly cause the death of a lot of Israeli soldiers, civilians that don't evacuate, and Tomas members, hopefully all of them. But as we know, they can regenerate just simply by. recruiting some other person into their ranks. That's going to be extraordinarily costly.

The IDF, I think, thinks it's a six-month plan after it starts. I think a lot of analysts would say, that's wishful thinking. It's going to go on longer. There's a lot of other things that are happening right now, I'd add. So they called it the New York Declaration. In the last month, the Saudis, the French, several other countries got together. They came up with a plan to transition, obviously, to a permanent ceasefire, if that should

ever happen, which we should all hope it does. The reconstruction of Gaza, a UN stabilization force coming in. So they have a plan. I think it's a 15-point plan and it takes five years that they're going to be part of the funding for. If that matches up with what Israel wants to see. with obviously Hamas can't be any part of the political system in Gaza. The idea that they could be is, it's a waste of time you've been talking about.

But the other issue is, what about the Palestinian Authority? Well, Palestinian Authority hasn't had authority for 30. They haven't had authority for, I don't know how long, a long time, right? They're incompetent, they're corrupt, and nobody listens to them. So there has to be a new type of government. I think Netanyahu's talking about, you know, an Arab League. what do they call it, an Arab mandate, where all these Arab countries, led by the UAE,

because they have a lot of influence with the Israelis, help a transition of technocrats, right? Arab Palestinians, of course, but technocrats that can actually just focus on, okay, how do we rebuild the infrastructure, how do we rebuild the economy, the schools, the health system, all this stuff like that. I mean, this is way easier to describe than it is to put in place,

but there seems to be several initiatives. And then, of course, you still have the Qatari Egypt plan for getting to a ceasefire happening at the same time. So I guess the role that the U.S. could play on this is merging those, merging the New York Declaration with the ongoing ceasefire negotiations, with this sort of plan that Prime Minister Netanyahu was put out there. Because they all have to agree to make it happen, right? So you can't just ignore, certainly can't ignore Israel. But you shouldn't ignore any component because in order for this to work, they have to be working together.

Andy? Yeah. And there's also, by the way, there's been a very interesting discussion within the Israeli Air Force. Some pushback against the Air Force chief of staff from his own pilots and particularly drone operators who are actually, you know, pilots, tend to press a button at, you know, X,000 feet and they don't see the consequences of what they do. But the drone operators do and are reporting and a lot of them talking to the media about the fact that these killings are happening, deliberate killings of Palestinians lining up for food. And so the chief of staff has Israeli, their head of the Air Force, is trying to clamp down on that. And of course, you know, in a citizen army with a lot of reservists,

it's very difficult to get people just to shut up, you know, when they feel as though they're, you know, they're motivated by conscience. And so we haven't got to the stage yet where people are refusing orders, but there is a great deal of pushback, which we haven't seen before from within the Israeli Air Force. And the last thing, I would say that, you know, from an operational consideration standpoint of operations, considerations. The Israelis have used and overused their special operations forces, and we've talked about this a little bit here. You know, they've formed, I mean, not during the war, several years ago they formed the Commando Brigade from their, you know, three special forces units, and they've been using them as infantry because time and again the Israelis have found their infantry just isn't very good. They're not very well trained. They don't

train at night. At night, by the way, the Israeli troops pull back into, they pull back into, I'm mispronouncing the word, but it's like a FOP, right? It's the barricade areas and they pull all their troops back in at night because they don't do night operations. And there's a number of reasons to that. They don't train to it. They don't have enough MVGs, blah, blah, blah. And then during the day, they go out again and reclear. And when they reclear, you know, they've got a lot of things on their side, I know I'm getting down into the tactics, and they're using drones like I wish we could have in Fallujah. They're flying drones into buildings to search rooms beforehand. And for the most part, they avoid sending soldiers into buildings. And part of that is they don't have to. But they

learned earlier on that when it comes down to mount to urban fighting, again, their guys had a number of shortfalls. They weren't trained very well in that area. It's not a criticism of Israeli soldiers. as people, it's just they haven't received the training. They're inexperienced even now. And this is partly why you see such a heavy reliance on artillery, air strikes, and naval gunfire. You know, there's other things that play here, too, that, you know, probably won't, you know, I won't get into right now. But some of it is simply, you know, their old adage about, hey, you make up with the weight of

artillery for shortfalls in the competence of your of your infantry and that is what they've had to do. Well, going into clear Gaza City, they don't, yes, they can recall 300,000 reserves. Yes, a lot of those guys have been in Gaza, but none of these guys have been doing like room to room clearing and the guys who have have been suffering very high attrition, I mean relatively high attrition. And so the Israelis have this problem now They've run out of I mean not run out But they've had this high attrition Among their special abrasions forces

Who are the guys who go in and seize areas And the troops that they have are just not capable of doing that They can occupy rubble You know, after they flattened the whole areas They'll move guys in to sit on the rubble But not clear buildings And they can't flatten all of Gaza City So it might be in the weeds

but that's a really good point, and he makes on so many levels, right? When you don't have confidence in your infantry forces, you tend to be heavy-handed with the use of indirect fire, which, of course, causes a lot of civilian casualties, right? So that's one of the reasons that we're seeing such high civilian casualty rates. The other thing is we keep talking about how much Israel controls the Gaza. They're saying 75%, well, if you don't clear and hold,

then that number, that ratio, if you will, shifts constantly, right? You have to keep clearing, keep clearing. And just think about it from a human perspective. How many times you want to clear the same building? And then you lose, you take casualty day for time to do it. Pretty soon you just say, level the building. I don't want to clear that again, right? And I don't want to send, you know, Lance Corporals in there for the fourth time to clear the same damn building.

So it's also, it has a very strong impact on how you conduct operations. and how much you can actually say you control. If they take Gaza City, which is a big if, it's very difficult for even the U.S. military to take that on. They'll be at 85%. So there's still 15% that they don't control. And then the question is, do you really control the parts that you actually say you control or not? And there's not much they can do now.

I mean, the plane's already in flight. There's only so much they can do to fix it. maybe in a future they spend more money on not that they need corrective criticism right now but on the actual forces that do these type of operations rather than giant big ticket items like F-35s and such if this is a kind of war you're willing to fight

it's only so much you need when it comes to these super advanced weapon systems you actually need to train the soldier on the ground on how to conduct these operations it's the bread and butter of it since the late 90s, the Israelis have focused very heavily on exquisite capabilities. You know, so their air force is very good. Everyone knows the Mossad is very good, right?

Their special operations forces are good. They're not, you know, they give a wider definition to special operations forces and probably we would. But they're very, you know, at the least, a very, very good infantry. But as I've said before, and by the way, you know, if listeners are always, Our audience is always members who respond with hate mail when I say things like this. But hey, I can give example after example, after example, coming from Israelis, from commanders, former commanders who tell me, hey, soldiers don't have weapons zeroed. You know, I mean, even the Galani Brigade. I mean, I'm sure they're learning these lessons now.

But very basic soldiering skills are missing. Explain to everybody what having your rifle zeroed is? Yeah. So basically, you know, everyone, everyone's got slightly different eyesight. Everyone's got a different body, right? And so, and weapons are all a little bit different. So all you're doing when you're zeroing your weapon is, is, is adjusting the sights so that when you point it at a target and aim at a target, your bullets are going to hit that target. you know, everything else, you know, if you're using the right techniques and everything.

If you don't do that, it doesn't matter how good a shot you are, you aren't going to, chances unless you are just really lucky, which chances are that your weapon is not going to hit that target. I mean, we're talking, you know, military stock weapons. I mean, so it's like a very, very basic skill. They had a lot of problems with blue on blue, a lot, not just in the confusion of 7 October, but in the aftermath, you know, to include killing three of their own hostages who had, I mean, it's a horrific story and I'm sure everyone involved is, you know, is, is suitably upset about it. But it didn't have to happen. The point is that, you know, basic procedures, inexperienced officers.

and a lot of guys who allowed vengeance and emotion to overtake the more, what's the word, the better angels of their nature, right? You know, I mean, all of this stuff kind of combines. And I think that's largely why you're seeing a lot of things that you're seeing. And this isn't about beating up on the IDF. I mean, we do this to ourselves, right? I mean, the best units actually are super critical. They spend zero time, you know, patting each other on the back when they do their after-action, you know, reviews.

And it's all about what we need to do better. So, you know, in the U.S. is by no means perfect. Neither the units we've been barred. I would be the absolutely right, Mike. I mean, I would be the first to criticize things that we in the Marine Corps have done. And we've learned some very hard lessons. And, you know, and we've done some pretty fucked up things, too. You know, and the stuff that I'm telling you has come from Israelis telling me who are, you know, they're angry.

And guys who are professional soldiers who've seen this deterioration within the force that they love. I mean, the IDF was, I mean, it was totemic, iconic, right, as a symbol of Israeli resolve. and Pluck and Courage and all of that. The stories of 48 and 56 and 73 and 67, you know, the recapture of the Western Wall, all of these things are part of Israeli law. The IDF is not just because of conscription, it's firmly woven into the fabric of Israeli society,

and there is instinctive respect for the IDF, and that is why events of 7 October so shocked, you know, aside from everything else involved, But the IDF's failures that led to 7 October and then their failures on the day, which had been openly exposed now in investigations, really, really shocked the Israeli public. And the opposition to this plan is not just external, which is Israelis want this war to be over.

Yeah, they were protests in the Tel Aviv and stuff. Oh, yeah, yeah, big time, right? The actual polls, I mean, look them up. I mean, they're ready for this war to be over. They're also very concerned, I think rightly, that this fighting is going to take place probably on top of where the last, believed to be, 20 remaining hostage, living hostages are. That is not good for the survivability of those hostages, right? The best way to get these hostages out, and it's absolutely abhorrent, these videos we're seeing of, you know, completely emaciated hostages that are digging their own grave. the best way to get them out is a negotiated ceasefire, period.

Right. It's the military operations, even with our best units, right, the J-Soc tiers, they're awesome. But, you know, if you have a guy assigned to stand right next to the hostage with a pistol to his head, I mean, I don't care how good you are, that hostage is going to die. If they, if they know that they're compromised and there's a rescue operation underway, it's almost a positive. if they're actually planning for it, right? And that's, and the Israeli special forces are awesome. But they're not, I mean, they're not, they're not, they're not, they can't miracle the thing. So it's important.

And that's why these hostage families and their supporters are very rightfully concerned about this going ahead. This might be the, you know, the demise of all these, uh, these hostages that, uh, are still alive in captivity. And there's no need to go in. You know, I mean, you can encircle the city. invest it and control movement in and out, control the access roads, conduct raids, targeted raids into the city itself to hit Hamas targets and work the intelligence on it and continue negotiations. You know, I mean, it's militarily that would be the best move to make. You know, so this is definitely, regardless of the ethical standpoint, this is definitely a case of

political leadership pushing for something that militarily does not make sense. Yeah, and of course, we always have the possibility that Hamas will accept the ceasefire on Israeli terms. You know, they showed, obviously, they brought this entire war to Gaza, so they show no regard for the people of Gaza. But they could stop this, I think. I mean, talk about political pressure. Netanyahu announces this going forward, even if the opposite.

of the IDF all the way to the top and a majority of the country. Then Hamas says, remember that offer you offer? We accept. That should stop this, right? I think. So they could always, you know, stop thinking about solely themselves and actually have a ceasefire. Get these hostages out and start planning for the day after, if you will, which could include substantial investments by the Gulf States in particular.

into the reconstruction of Gaza for the Palestinians that live in Gaza. Let's hope that they actually agree to something. Yeah, well said. All right, guys, unless you have something else to get off your chest, now's the time. No? Looking more on my chest. Who killed JFK, Mick, quick. You know, come on.

Everybody asked me that when I tell them when I'm the CIA or was. We'll get it out of them, guys. Don't worry. All right, guys, don't do us a favor. Check out Andy's stuff. Check out mixed stuff. The links are in the description. You can find us there.

Yeah, best place to support the shows, Patreon.com slash the Teamhouse. As always, guys, great time. Thank you. Thank you, everyone. Have a good way, Jess. Take it. Hey, guys.

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