The Team House - WTF are we Actually Doing in Venezuela? | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

Episode Date: December 15, 2025

In this episode, Dee and Mick Mulroy discuss the ongoing crisis in Venezuela, focusing on the implications of U.S. sanctions on the Maduro regime and the potential for military intervention. They highlight the role of Maria Karenna Machado as a legitimate leader and the risks of a power vacuum if Maduro were to leave. The conversation also touches on the strategic military presence of the U.S. in the Caribbean, the need for Europe to bolster its military independence, and the complexities of U.S.-China relations, particularly regarding technology transfers. The episode concludes with a discussion on the future of U.S.-Canada relations and the importance of Arctic strategy.GhostBed⬇️https://www.ghostbed.com/houseFOR 25% off! Support the show on Patreon:⬇️https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouseSubscribe to our new newsletter!!!!https://teamhousepodcast.kit.com/joinNew merch, patches, and stickers! ⬇️https://theteamhouse-shop.fourthwall.comCheck out Mick's new podcast here:⬇️Apple Podcasts:https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/pub-and-porch-applied-stoicism/id1836955475Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/1k3QPmkAMwnGJxMLDwUSSd?si=n6piIu8XRcag1Z0K43A3bQYoutube:https://www.youtube.com/@UCd0Hq6QFk8CoTu5j-VU0Ong Find Mick Mulroy here: Fogbow ⬇️https://fogbow.com/Lobo Institute ⬇️https://www.loboinstitute.org/Twitter ⬇️https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCALinkedIn ⬇️https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/Bluesky ⬇️https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.socialMick’s publications ⬇️https://www.loboinstitute.org/publications/publications-of-michael-mick-patrick-mulroy/Find Andy Milburn here: Twitter ⬇️https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8LinkedIn ⬇️https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023Substack ⬇️https://amilburn.substack.com/Andy’s book ⬇️https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-OperationsBluesky ⬇️https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.socialFind Jason Lyons here: LinkedIn ⬇️https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?uBluesky ⬇️https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social"Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio"00:00 Venezuela's Oil Crisis and Sanctions05:06 The Role of Maria Karenna Machado09:53 Military Options and Risks in Venezuela15:02 Power Vacuum Concerns Post-Maduro20:06 U.S. Military Strategy and European Relations29:57 Ukraine's Industrial Needs and European Support33:03 The Need for a Unified European Military Strategy35:55 Energy Independence and Strategic Partnerships39:59 The Implications of U.S.-China Tech Relations47:01 Future Military Actions and Strategic DecisionsBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support.

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Aizond Geopolitics. I have Mick Mulroy here today. We might be joined by Andy Milburn soon. A lot going on as usual. A bit of a holding pattern. There's some stuff popping off of Venezuela. We've been boarding tankers and stuff. I'm assuming, and me and Mick were talking about this before,

like probably trying to choke off the Madora regime of any revenue and stuff like that. Mick, what are you tracking this week? I know you have a good eye on it. Yes, I usually just go with whatever I last talk about on ABC, which the big topic, of course, was Venezuela, starting with what looks like a new campaign to seize oil tankers. So there's many tankers around the world that are sanctioned, right, because they are involved in trying to skirt around the sanctions opposed on countries like Iran, right?

So legally, there's that provides, at least for the U.S. legal system, some support for being able to seize or stop. They obviously want to cut the Maduro regime off from funding. We were talking about it for the podcast. You've got two ways you stay in power as a basically as a dictator. Group violence, which you uses, and paying people. If you can't pay people, and oftentimes people are, tyrants are surrounded by tyrants. If you can't pay them, they'll turn on your heartbeat.

They'll just because, you know, you no longer benefit to them. And all these people below Maduro, a likely benefit from the regime's corruption, which is selling drugs, selling oil. They have the largest oil reserves in the world. They actually have more oil than Saudi Arabia. I was told $14 trillion in proven oil reserves. And yet they have a horrible government, horrible economy,

and people leaving by the millions, which tells you how corrupt the regime is. But they make money, right? It's always, no matter how much you do to put sanctions on a country, that the people in power always end up still making a lot of money. So what they're trying to do is cut that off, which is pretty smart. If you want to get him to leave without having to force him militarily out,

this is not just a one-off. It could be a campaign. So we're tracking these vessels. I saw at least. one figure that there's 46 of them that were tracking that would be used to and in Venezuela they have an issue with their oil they actually have to use some kind of chemical to get it so it's so heavy they can't pump it out of the ground so you have they have to get that chemical in put it in the ground get the oil out and

obviously get the oil around the world to make money so if they can't do that if they start stopping the ships that are bringing this dilutin. I don't know the name of it, but in or oil coming out, that could force a change at the top. Yeah. Right? No more money. And there's reports, media reports that is, that Maduro is in discussions to leave the country.

I've seen several countries listed as potentials. Belarus is the last one I saw. I don't know if it's true. And according to the media folks that asked me, these questions that often have more information than is public. It does seem to be a question about how many people he can take with him. Right, yeah. There was some talk a couple weeks ago, right, about he was negotiating to try and take out,

like, a hundred or so people putting his vice president until elections were done. And we said no bueno on that. I mean, he wanted a immunity, I guess, too. Yeah, oh yeah, he wants some unity. He doesn't want to be prosecuted. And I mean, it would be good if he left the country for the country. Right, right. This guy is illegit of it. He's not the president. He's, he's, he is with, he held, or he held power simply for power's sake. And he is ruining the country and destabilizing the region, which is our hemisphere.

So it's a good thing if he would leave. And he's obviously going to want amnesty, as you'd expect. So if that's necessary, hopefully we can do it. We can avoid any kind of violent overthrow, well, especially with our folks. Another big thing that happened this week is Machado, Maria Corinna Machado, so the Nobel Prize, peace recipient, and would have been the president. in it, if the election was honest and held, and she was allowed to run in it, was gotten out of the country. And that was awesome. It's almost like made TV movie. What I was told, and I don't know this or I wouldn't be talking about it, is that she has basically, and I was told this by a journalist

who's, I think, probably already published it, has been held in the country and protected by are intelligence agencies, specifically, you know, the best intelligence agency. Sure. Yeah. Again, I don't know this because I don't collect information. Analyst, not a journalist.

But a journalist told me that she was kept there and that this was, in this private group or veteran group, God bless him, carried it out. So, but to keep her alive in, in Venezuela and then get her out, get her, uh, she's in Norway, right? Uh, Maslow. Um, too bad if she wasn't there to get the prize, but it was, I thought just awesome. I watched the whole thing with her daughter, which is just super emotional.

And she's, she's the antithesis of, uh, Maduro. Yeah. Right. So in, so that was awesome. And I believe she is willing to be the vice president. So that he turned it over to her. I see. And then they would have, you know, elections, real elections,

and people would decide, and I believe they would decide smartly and choose her. Because the country could be really exceptional. I mean, look at the resources they have, and it could benefit the whole region. And, you know, us included, U.S. Sure. U.S. of A. I'm all good with that as long as we don't fucking invade. I'm okay with it.

There is the level, and I was trying to look up because me and Eric were kind of geeking out on this one short on how much is in there. In terms of like Caribbean. Like a, you know, U.S. naval power and military? Yeah. It's intense. Yeah, it's a lot. It's kind of crazy. It is crazy.

And they're pulling more assets from the Indo-Pacific. and send com right now. Yeah, that's nuts. Like if it wasn't enough, I mean, you know, I'll send you this. I'll read it all, but it's, it is incredible that this is, uh,

yeah, I could definitely put this up. I could, yeah, I could put it up on, like as we're, uh, in the edit.

Yeah. Yeah, I mean, the last number, I think was like 25% of the Navy, which is like insane to me. I just sent it to you. Take a gander at that,

that chart. And this is, and this is, isn't even done. Like, according to the Pentagon reporters, I know, they're moving assets. Yeah. From other, other geographic commands that are mortgness. So it does, it's either one or two things.

Or maybe it's a merge. They're scaring the bejesus out of, they're trying to, thinking that this is going to be an all-out invasion and he's going to end up like Saddam Hussein, you know, at the end of a rope. Yeah. So he leaves. Yeah. Or this is the actual buildup for an invasion. I don't see that happening.

I think if there's any land action, I guess it's a term the president's using, it's probably going to be air strikes, right? We can dominate them militarily, but obviously by air is safer for our people. Right. Than putting. And, you know, let's face it, who gets killed on the other side? It's not, it's not, hopefully it's Maduro, but it's going to be a bunch of proffered soldiers. Right on their side, they get killed. And, you know, chances are they, you know, they don't want to, they don't even want to fight.

But so we should try to do everything we can to avoid, I think, the actual conflict itself. I hope this is, like, ground contact, what I mean specifically. I don't, I don't, I, although I think it should be done in conjunction with the Congress. For sure. Yeah. I think destroying infrastructure of countries that not. not only don't do it themselves, drug infrastructure I'm talking about, but actually promote it because they benefit from it.

I'm all about it. You know, it's like, look, you got, there's one of two things. They're making, you know, fentanyl or Coke or whatever they're making. This is where they make it. Either you and your police forces go out there and destroy it and dismantle it or we will. I have no problem that. That is, you know, I'm surprised we haven't done that yet. But doing that, I feel like doesn't really need, you don't really need 25% of the Navy and like a bunch.

Yeah, like you don't need that stuff for that for probably 15 targets. Like, a destroyer could probably take care of all that. Yeah. It's true. It's true. You could probably just actively target with Preds for the most part. But whatever you need to actually, I don't know how big these facilities are. I've worked, I've done a little bit of it.

But, yeah, if that's what it's going to take to start destroying these facilities, and not just in Venezuela. It's like if the government either can't, won't do it or can't do it, then this is a fair option. Are the analysts in the agency or state or wherever, are they gaming out what happens if Maduro steps down? Are they worried about, like, factions of the military? taking over or, you know, somebody else grabbing power, however it works.

Because there's got to be, at least I'm assuming analysts are putting down some kind of percentage or like some kind of likelihood in terms of what the scenarios could be, right? Because we all want to agree that like, yeah, Machado come in. She gets, they do an election. She wins and it's democratic and kind of opens up Venezuela. Yeah. And I want to be six foot four inches and 220 pounds, right? Like, I'm never going to, it's never going to happen for me.

I'm not saying it won't happen for Venezuela, but I just worry about leaving that kind of power vacuum there, especially like if the rest of like Maduro's cronies don't get the amnesty that he'll likely get. What do they do, right? When their backs are against the wall and, you know, real deal backs are against the wall. Because I'm assuming if they're still around and Machado wins is going to be some kind of like inquiry at the wall. minimum, right, in terms of like their participation. So that's what I worry about. It's just a power vacuum, right? Because we saw it in Iraq.

You know, that thing was like a gaping fucking wound, basically. Well, you hit on several of things that I would imagine folks Ed Langley are looking at. Yeah. It's easy. Obviously, this person doesn't need to be in charge, but it's easy to say that. But if you don't know what comes after. or sometimes, you know, it's not worth the effort. Right.

So if he leaves and, you know, a worse person steps up and then becomes, you know, the new Maduro who continues the drug trade and continues to partner with Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, whatever, right? So it didn't do any good. So it, and this is much easier said than done. How do you orchestrate a removal of somebody like this that ends in a positive? Yeah. You know, obviously for our own national security interest and the people of Venezuela.

I think that answer we have, but it's going to have to be orchestrated. Right. They need to have him remove. And you hit the other issues, right? So what is keeping them from leaving? Well, there's reports that the Cuban, he's basically surrounded by, Cuban intelligence officers who are told like he leaving. Really?

Yeah, Cuban regime meets him in place. Maybe, you know, I think the old tanker was going to Cuba, right? So they benefit from Maduro being in place and everything that he benefits from. So they don't want to believe. And maybe they can tell him you're not leaving because your security ends up being your prison and wardens. Yeah. Pretty quick, right, when they want to be. And then the other thing you already hit Dee is like,

if you benefit from Maduro, like your Maduro's and his gang, and you make money, and he's like, hey, I'm piecing out going to, you know, El Orooos.

And you're going to be the one left home in the back. Yeah. They're going to prosecute plenty of people. It's not just him, right? Somebody, there's a lot of other bad people there. So they might be telling him, nah, man,

you're not leaving. Because if you leave in, you know, I'm left holding the bag. I'm going to be the one swinging at the end of the rope. So that may be, might be why he's doing so much negotiation on how many people he can take.

He's got to take enough people that he's allowed to leave. Yeah. If you're in the market for a new mattress, you've probably seen all the brands out there vying for your attention. Big names, splashy ads, all promising the same thing. But here's the only brand that does it right.

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And love Ghostbed. Thanks, guys. So you think that's what's happening right now? because like we've been like gearing up for these Venezuelan strikes for, you know, probably since September, right? So it's been a few months. Um, at least a buildup has been there. So you think this is what's going on behind the scenes,

I'm assuming is like some kind of negotiation where he's trying to get out unscathed relatively, you know? It could be. And if, if you look at the campaign, right, so we started to strike in the drugboats, specifically associated with the cartel that he runs. So that is obviously to try to stop drugs from coming to the country, which is important. But it's also to cut out a major revenue source.

And then we start, and it's a campaign, right? So we stop that. And then he's, he's hurting, right? And then we got the potential replacement leader out of the country and very vocal. So now she can be very vocal. She can push the people in Venezuela can say, okay, we would like to be led by her, not him. Right? So now there's a figure to rally, which is not, it's not manipulated. Like, she's legit. Yeah. You know, this is a very minimum of contender for, yeah, like.

Yeah, she's totally legit and inspirational, I think, to many, not just in Venezuela. So it's coming together. You know, it's almost like you can see, you can see the chest movements on the board. And it's really whether it works, if it does work, like, you know, my head, well, be off to them. But I, you know, the other options that they do like a Manuel Noriega type special operations, we certainly have the, we certainly have the assets in place. Yeah, I mean, J-Soc's probably been down there for three months or more. No?

Yeah. I mean, it's been reported, so. You know, Intel's probably been developed, I imagine. Yeah, yeah. You don't have that right, you know. I mean, listen, I love J-Soc and they can get it done. They can get almost anything done, but I don't know if I'm down. on to risk guys to go and snatch this guy.

I'm really not. Stop question. Because, you know, I'm talking as John Q. Public, no one really gives a shit about Venezuela. Frankly, they're not as big of a drug smuggling operation as, like, Mexico or Columbia is, or those cartels are. They don't make fentanyl. Like, so it's, I don't really, outside of the immigration or the illegal immigration, I don't see a massive threat to the homeland, to be frank. And I'm the type of guy who's like outside of like, you know, you're leaving Venezuela,

like just like the same reason people left former Soviet countries after the fall, right? It's because you're willing to go to a new place, a new country where you probably don't speak the fucking language and change your life to be to, you know, do better. in life, right, to do better for you and your family. I can't hate on somebody who wants to do something like that. Like that's so, to me, that's the bravest, one of the bravest things you could do, right? Like, leave everything you know behind because it's so shitty to come to America or any Western country, really, and try and make a better life for you and your family, like the right way?

It's like, dude, I can't hate on that. You know, my dad. That's why we're here, right? Right. Yeah, that's why all of us are here. Greek and Amahires, right? So, I mean, that's America. Yeah.

So. Just got to do it legally. No, I agree. I mean, I know plenty of groups have done it illegally. Gotta be honest with you. But that's just the name of the game. It is what it is. But think about it.

You're willing to break the fucking law to get to a place that's not as garbage as you're, where you came from. Or, like, just to get better opportunities. Not through, like, being drugged. And then there are bad guys that come. through, but I think that's like the vast minority, in my opinion. I mean, there's empirical evidence to it too, so it's not my opinion. It's fucking fact that anybody's bitching about it. But, um, so yeah, I don't know if the juice is worth the squeeze.

I'm saying for sending in like, you know, a thousand Rangers and like a, you know, a squadron of Delta or Dev grew to try and swack this guy or capture him or whatever. I don't want to end the TF 160. I don't want to risk those guys. Those are like. are best assets in the world. Like, I don't know. I don't know.

It is a huge, it's a huge, it's a huge risk, right? You got to get these, you know, operators in, right? And that's what requires, you know, movement. Movement's very vulnerable. The Russians have been given them just about every kind of surface-to-air missile that they can get them. And it's just a challenge. now, do we have the assets to mitigate that breath? Yep.

So I would hope, and I don't need to tell Admiral Bradley how to do his business. He's been doing it for 30 years. So he's going to do the risk assessment, be so as a commander of J-Soc and all the way down to the commander of whichever squadron we go. Tell the powers it be. This is the risk to the force if we do this, and this is a chance to success. Yeah. And you want high fidelity on the intel, like he's there. Right.

Yeah. And then you've got to do the question. I mean, because this was actually debate before the middle out rate. Why don't we just blow them up? Sure. Right? Yeah. Is it worth risking getting a helicopter shot down with, you know, dozens of...

Totally. Or we just, if we know where it is, that we can actually go in apprehend him, then we could essentially just target them. Mm-hmm. And, I mean, we've been targeting, well, we're over 80. you know, uh, drug runners. Right. He's ahead of the drug.

Yeah. I mean, we definitely have, I'm assuming, we're not worth our salt if we don't have his shit completely penetrated, at least signals wise. Like, we're not worth shit. If we have not, we don't know exactly where he is at exactly what time or even have a human guy who's close to him that we're fucking, you know, paying him a hundred grand a month to, you know what I mean? To, like, give us the goods on them.

Well, we can't do it, an operation to apprehend. apprehended, but we don't know where he is. Right. You know what he is. I mean, I'd advocate for, you know, obviously trying to mitigate any collateral damage, but he's probably surrounded by a bunch of goons. Right. You know, to keep them in place.

So, yeah. And if they're, if you're standing around Maduro right now, you kind of should know that your chances of getting your ticket pulled are high. So, you know, I'd advocate that we don't risk a shutdown helicopter that we would just take him out with his, you know, and, you know, if anything that we've done, we've done a lot wrong in the last 20 years of the global war on terror, but one thing we have done really right is targeting. Yeah, we've gotten very good at it, right. And the, in the military.

Yeah. Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see. I hope it's negotiated out and you can leave and, you know, we can start focusing on China, which won't happen in terms of military and intelligence and, you know, the whole, you U.S. apparatus. Like, and Russia. I mean, Russia should be the number one, like, fucking them up in Ukraine. Yeah, and you did see a lot of comments this week by our European partners about the end of Pax,

Americana, whatever you call it, is over, right? This should be shocking to Americans. I agree. I am, you know, I think I'm a straight shooter. I'm out of blog to a political party. I compliment and I criticize the policy, not the people. I'm not getting in that. But I have been complimentary on the Gaza peace plan efforts by this administration.

I also supported a direct strike on Iran. That was the right time to do it. I'm supportive, at least in part, of trying to get the Dural help. But we got to worry about this idea that we don't want to be paired with. I mean, they're not as strong as the United States. Sure. But this isn't a matter of we can reduce our spending if we disconnect with Europe. If we disconnect with Europe, we're probably going to have to increase our defense spending.

I think because we don't have the partners and allies that we had before. I think the last thing I saw, they marked up like a $951 billion. Yeah, it went up. It's not like it's going down and we're getting a little bit of like peace and prosperity in our own backyard, like health care or whatever. also to be honest it's a little annoying with Europe even though I think behind the scenes they are doing the right thing in terms of like seeing the writing on the wall where it's like we need to step up here and kind of decouple or at least have that plan in place somehow whether it's military industrial base even intelligence too especially specifically for Russia but like the feverish meetings that they have like come out with a fucking plan a real one I know I know they came out with a with a new 20-point plan or Ukraine did in conjunction, and push that shit.

Push that shit. Like, this is the plan that we're willing to do. In Europe, it's your own backyard, right? Yeah. Stand up and make a decision, you know, collectively. I agree. You know, it's not just constantly, you know, platitudes and, you know, trying to convince us to do something.

I mean, it's time to be your own, have your own agency. And I don't mean, like, agency. I mean, like, you own, you know, will. Yeah. And they do need their own agency, by the way, because their intelligence, I mean, we had the largest, and we do have the largest, most effective intelligence collection system ever. Yeah. And so people rely on us. And I would not want, as a country, any country that I was in, I would want to have as much of self-reliance as I can, which means I would propose if I was European, no more neutrality.

we're rowing, you're rowing because you're in the boat. You got to build up your military. You got to integrate it across so they can fight together. You got to start. There's two ways to fight Russia. You can either be so strong they won't fight you. So I guess that's not fighting, but you get my point, or fight them or actually fight them. Right.

So either way, in the irony of this, I don't think we're actually going to rupture our relationship, but they don't, but just say it does happen. We might do it at the very time when they, put so much effort into their own security that they're plus for the United States. Yeah. Like not a, not a drag.

Frankly, Mick, I would be, if I was like an EU leader, I would be floating or leaking the idea of a alliance that does not include the U.S. A military alliance without the U.S. NATO could still be there,

but this is also a new alliance, at least float the idea, leak it somewhere where like we're starting to, like, really think about what the fuck we're going to do because the U.S. is not, push comes to show, I don't think the U.S.

is showing up, really. I don't think so. That's just, right now, it's horrible. Yeah. It's horrible concept,

right? So we've, later, it's only been activated for us. Yeah, you know, so, you know,

this idea, it's a bird, it's like a suck. You know, we want to have our power projected around the world. That's what superpowers do. I mean, it's,

it's like in the definition. So we have all of this force in Europe. It's not just for the Europeans. Like, they get a benefit, sure. It's because we want it there, right? Yeah. We don't want to. It's the only, like, really the only fucking democracies around.

There's like 25 democracies in a world of like 190 countries. Yeah. It's kind of wild to see that, like numbers-wise, like the percentage-wise, it's insane. I don't know why you would back out of Europe At the same time prodding them to do their own thing And I think listen Europe is stepping up for sure Over the last three years

I think it's been a big wake-up call for them You know But you know The EU's got together It has a massive You know massive economy together They do You know

So they can pull their own weight And they have a I think enough I'm not an expert But I think they have enough Of a military industrial base Where they can build and develop their own weapons where it's not reliant on as U.S. as much, right? Like, yeah, that's what they should be doing.

I mean, that's what I would be doing if I was a PM. I'd be like, what the fuck? What's the plan here? We need to step away from the U.S. We're obviously still friends, but we need to be able to handle this shit ourselves. Yeah, and it's very real, right? So Ukraine needs an industrial base that's outside of Ukraine. Right.

Right, because they're not Russia will talk about. The European countries outside of Ukraine need it because they need to have self-reliance. So pair of the two. They should be, maybe there is, factories, especially drone factories, popping up all over the place, long-range missiles. You know, everything, everything that these countries needs to build right now can benefit Ukraine right now. there's again there's all these hundreds of billions of dollars that are Russian frozen assets I know there's legalities and also I said here that it's held in Belgium yeah and the Belgians are worried I believe this is what I heard is they're worried about if they released it whether it's

for reconstruction for Ukraine or for weapons for Ukraine that they if there is a peace deal or a ceasefire that like the Russians will go after them in terms of trying to get it back. So that's what they're worried about. And also I did read that they're worried that because the U.S. has taken a step back, that if the Russians did go after them, not militarily, but I think other ways, the U.S. wouldn't be there to like help Belgium, Belgium. So I think that's like a little bit of trepidation there, at least from the Belgian government. Yeah, I think you're right.

I think there is an idea to get around that in that they could loan Ukraine hundreds of billions of dollars based on the frozen assets. So you're not actually using frozen assets. And then they will not give the money back to Russia unless they pay for the reconstruction. I got you. And if they won't, then they go through a process of whatever it's called. restitution, I guess, to give the money to Ukraine. So they actually, they borrowed it, but then they can, Ukraine can get it back. Yeah.

So they leverage against it, basically. Yeah. I think they already are giving Ukraine the profits. From like the interest? Yeah. Okay. It's like $5, $10 billion of years. It's got to be a significant amount.

Yeah, I mean, you have $300 billion sitting around. Yeah, it's going to accrue. Yeah, I would really love a deep dive on like what Poland's doing and what like those countries right down the border are doing because you know Poland's getting busy both militarily. The polls can fight. They have got a great intelligence service. Just think about it, right?

Like the EU together with, let's say the UK is a strong nuclear power with a massive military. And if you include Ukraine in the EU, they have the biggest army in fucking Europe. So like they don't have, they have clause. EU has claws. they literally need to stop doing the group meetings where like they just try and figure out like a fucking statement to come out with and say it's like no you need a tangible plan

because the U.S. is not coming to your back clearly why don't they have some kind of military alliance inside the European Union system I would do that right away I'd be working on the UK too but you know okay now and EU together I mean why not yeah I mean at least bleak the frame framework of it, right?

Like, show something outside of bullshit fucking statements from, like, leaders that they're really doing this. I mean, they are spending the money, which is good, but, like, show some fucking teeth. Because Russia's around in their backyard, sabotaging shit, they're fucking about real good. Like, there was a report about Russia trying to blow up our fucking planes, uh, heading to the unwinds, like, bro, what the fuck? And if you need to go back before Ukraine or like, not before Ukraine started, started, but before their full skeleton invasion,

the Havana syndrome stuff, like they've been frying our fucking guys for years. It's like, it's time to hit back where the U.S., especially covertly. Yeah. Because they'll never fucking admit

that they got hit. They'll never admit. They're too fucking machismo, fucking, you know, big, they think they're tough guys. Yeah, yeah. If they're doing stuff to us,

I'm all about, you know, you're going to do stuff to us. We're going to do stuff to you. going to suit to your level. We're not going to injure civilians and all that stuff. You know. No, absolutely. It's one of the oldest adages.

You know, bullies exist because you let them. Yeah. Right? Yeah. That's it. You don't let them. If you make it really clear that the consequences of doing what they're doing is going to be bad. Yeah.

That's the only thing that Russia understands. Like, they don't, I mean, I've been told this by Russians. Like, they're fine playing the bad guy. Yeah. Like, and they root for them. So we just, Europe. It needs to stand up. I mean, I think the United States obviously should be doing a lot more against Russia.

It's not even identified as an adversary in the national security strategy. First time ever. Crazy. If I was Europe, I'd read that and say, okay, we need another military alliance and we need to have the strongest military we can possibly muster. One, to change Russia's decision matrix on going beyond Ukraine, which many, I mean, people are predicting they do and will. go beyond Ukraine. You have to make yourself, and they need to decide when is a, when are we going to step in, if we're going to step in in Ukraine. Right. Are they going to, right? I think it's overstated that the Russians are doing well. I don't think they are. Yes, they are making incremental gains at

huge costs. But that doesn't mean that the Europeans, the rest of them, shouldn't say, okay, if, you know, hypothetically, Russia starts taking over large areas, like the, what they call, Fortress Belt, when are we going to say no moss? Like, we're willing to send in troops, and they'll be fighting French and German and UK troops.

Yeah. You know, and we want to avoid this, because that, even though it's a decision by those countries, we obviously want to avoid it, but if they attack them, then you do have the question of NATO. Right. Right? I mean, they're putting themselves in harm's way, but why can't France send troops to Ukraine?

Why is France restricted from helping its neighbor? Yeah, it's crazy. Yeah. Like, and then if they attack the French forces, they've attacked NATO. Right. You see what I mean? Yeah. There's an Article 5 question at least there.

Of course. Also, like, if you see a couple weeks back, you know, Wyckoff and Kushner go to, Moscow, me Putin and Lavrov and the Chinese foreign minister. It's like, if you're Europe and Ukraine, it's like we need to be at that fucking table. What you guys come up with is null and void. This isn't after World War II and you're the great powers and you're carving up Europe. This is not how it works. Not now.

It's 2025. Fuck off. Like, no. I mean, that's what Europe needs to do. They need to show their teeth. And I don't want to say. that in a way where like I'm shitting on Europe right I'm not I'm saying that they have to

do it now because the US ain't coming they have to do it and to be frank it's wasting a lot of time if we really want to see a ceasefire we gotta start doing things to make Russia change its mind

and we're not doing that collectively like it needs to be Europe too I mean European countries need to stop buying their energy now and figure out I mean I know it's easy to say probably Sure. No, it's got it tough. Yeah, I mean, how the fuck are they going to keep their people warm during the winter? Have a plan. Have a plan and announce it. You know, the best day to plan off trees 20 years ago, the second best day is today. Like, have a plan and start doing it now. Frankly. Yeah. Yeah. Please. They need to know. Like, this is our plan to stop buying any, anything for Russia. Yeah. And this is how long it's going to take. And I'll announce it because, you know.

Yeah, I mean, I would hit up Canada. I would hit up the Saudis. I would hit up. I would hit up. I would hit up. up anybody who makes fucking oil to send it their way in Europe. I know the Canadian pipelines are more towards the west so that would need to take time to build out the infrastructure for oil in Canada to be sent out the east

way. But you know, if I'm Canada too, I'm seeing the fucking riding on the wall with the U.S. It's like we have a belligerent neighbor who's talking about annexing us. We need to look beyond we need to look beyond

the good old U.S. and like obviously still do deal make you know trade and do business but if they're smart people in the rooms like the economists and all that stuff are not thinking about this stuff and like really looking at how to plan it out and game it out even if it takes five or ten years

they're not doing their fucking job. Yeah. Yeah, you're right. I would think that Canada's becoming closer to to the to the continent, right? I think they're both economically and security. I mean, they're part of the Commonwealth, right?

Yeah. So they always had that tie, but now I think it's more than ever. And, you know, if you're going to focus on the Western Hemisphere, like, that's what the history of the United States. Oh, yeah, 100%. Yeah. Somehow we've, we've had us. We come up with a strategy.

You focus on our own hemisphere, which is probably going to be at the demise of other areas. And we've kind of cut off all contact with the most significant partner country we have in our hemisphere. Yeah, and we get most of our energy from them, too, right? Because we export our energy out to make money. So it's like, yeah, I don't understand the belligerence towards Canada whatsoever. You want to cut a better deal? I get that. Fine.

That happens. Sure. the nature of things. What was I going to say? God damn it. But, I mean, the whole reason, like, we talk, what we used to talk about Greenland. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Is because of access to the Arctic. Canada has massive access to the Arctic. Right. Right, which we could just leverage if we were just good partners with them, right? Yeah. And with Greenland. I don't, I mean, if you go back to the Greenland,

we're the ones that withdrew forces from Greenland. I'm sure that, you know, maybe that would be really suspect. now, but if we would have done, if we would have said, hey, we want our companies to have access to the Arctic Circle through Greenland, I think before with the kerfuffle, they would have been like, great. We were NATO partners, right? Allies. That is going to be a big thing. There's only a certain amount of countries that have access to the Arctic. The Arctic is thawing. The podcast I did before this, the Stoic podcast. We talked about anti-science. Yeah.

and how stoicism is a counterbalance that. But it is melting, right? So everybody knows it. So that's why there's so much interest. You'll have better access to the resources, and it's going to make the world a lot smaller. Right. Right. I mean, just flip the globe and look at it from the top.

And you go, oh, yeah. So they'll be accessible. You'll be able to get through there, and it's the economic advantages are massive. And it's something that we should be like. I mean, the president and his administration is right on focusing on it. But there's a lot of ways you could go to benefit the United States. And therefore, in my opinion, the free world by leveraging our allies and partners, including Canada, right, to their advantage and ours. And they happen to be fucking Democratic, you know, because there was background deals going on for, you know, North Stream 2 in the Arctic with Kushner and with.

cough and it's just like guys this is not the time and the place to be doing that we understand you'll probably have the leg in leg in to it like if if things calm down but it's like let's think about the actual people that are getting fucking bulldoze and and you know in the meat grinder in ukraine and stop that shit without giving russia everything they fucking deserve they need they want they don't deserve a fucking thing Putin i'm not saying the russian people because like people, you know, people are people everywhere. Yeah, I mean, it's going to be an interesting, it's just weird how things are shaping up.

Oh, what I wanted to mention was, as mentioned in the national security strategy, where like we're still going to focus on China and make sure Taiwan is free and independent. But at the same time, they do that. They're also okaying Navidia to give. It's not their top chip. It's not the chip that we use, like the fastest one.

but if you buy enough of these set last generation chips, I think it's the N200 or NH200. It'll have the same amount of processing power. They're just okaying the sale to China. And I understand there's a thought, there's probably a thought process of like keeping NVIDIA kind of afloat

to keep that stock price fat because, you know, the market is, this is going into a bit of an economics, but like the market is heavily reliant on the money that's being poured into AI and AI tech. but what the fuck are we thinking giving a chip that's advanced by some people measure like six five to six times more of five to six times faster than the top chip that China currently has yeah I truly don't understand it this is something that China would have spent tons of money

trying to steal this technology right right right because they tend to be better at production than innovation and we tend to be better at innovation, right? So we've just given them the part that we are best at. And so, and they can out manufacture us, right? So if it was in the military context or that use these chips, we've given them the very thing that they could use to potentially fight us, that they're better at, you know, producing material than we are or these systems.

What's interesting is part of that deal is that you, US gets 25% of the profits. I'm sure the profits are astronomical, like tens of billions of dollars, but in the grand scheme of the US budget, who gives a fine fuck about $30 billion a year in chips? Because you know that pipeline's going to thin out. Why? They're going to get a chip, reverse engineer it, and make it for 5x less the cost. Yep.

What are we thinking here? Like, I mean, it's almost. unfucking unbelievable and and let's also remember I'm a bit more economics too but it's world economics I sent the guys in the chat like a few days back China just posted a one trillion dollar trade surplus first time ever largest since World War II for any country not even the US and our our trade has been going down significantly over the last eight nine months, double digits every month. I think November was 29% down.

But China's 6% up overall. So they're not feeling this fucking squeeze whatsoever. So handing them anything like that is, I'm confound. I don't understand it. I don't either. I haven't heard anybody actually articulate at all why this was a good idea. You know, I mean, usually somebody can make an argument.

argument about everything. But I haven't even heard anybody make it. Maybe I've been traveling, but I haven't even heard anybody trying to make an articulate an argument of why this was a good idea from the security or from your point in economic. Like we're giving them what they would. That's the one thing they usually have a hard time with is what we just allow them to buy directly. So, I mean, maybe if somebody's out there listened to us that thinks we're wrong.

you know, posted or posted in the chats. Yeah, posted in the comments. I'm all about adjusting my thought process if I'm off here or anywhere. But I just, I haven't even heard anybody articulate why this was a good idea, other than people are going to make a lot of money. But, you know, America's not. I mean, I guess America does make some money out this, but. Who are the Navidia shareholders do?

I don't know. Don't we own part of the Viti or something? No, I don't think so. Oh. We own Intel. We bought 10% of Intel or 11%. Or LEM cell? Yeah.

Oh. So we don't even make any money off of it. No. No. And it's, yeah. Frankly, Navity, I think is doing good stuff in terms of innovation and stuff like that.

I think it's highly, the AI stuff is highly, you know, overblown. But NVIDia is a company that's here to stay, right? You're always a need compute power and stuff like that. So they're a company that are reporting. But I could give a fuck about NVIDIA shareholders.

Right. I mean, those people, I mean, right. People could buy it. They cannot buy it. Correct.

That should be. Yeah. U.S. foreign policy should be led by. Foreign policy shouldn't be like opening up a market for sharehold. I got on, no, sorry. You can open up markets for U.S. companies. Right. That's done.

That's part of diplomacy, right? But that's just so particular people that own a particular stock and do well. Right. And that is going to come at the expense of our security. That's the thing, right? Like if China's are leading, you know, closest near peer country and they are. Pacing.

Yeah. Yeah. Why we are giving them any leg up, especially when they're probably trying to hack Navidia every fucking day. Of course. You know, like, that's like they have probably a department that is just for Navidia.

What are we, what are we, we're just going to hand it to him. Like, we should be going in the video and being like, hey, do you need help with cybersecurity? Yeah.

We should close hold it as much as like we hold an, we held an F-20, two plans or any big, scary, innovative weapon system, even though they stole that. But, like, we need, that needs to be a focus. And it's just, I don't know, man, it's just wild. You're right, but. Yeah. All right.

What else? I don't cover a lot. I know. We always go. I like it. It's like jazz with me and you. It's like we just improv it. I like it.

What do we got? What are we looking forward towards this week? Well, we're going to find out whether this. and I think it is a campaign to stop the oil shipments out of Venezuela, which, I mean, we have the assets there. We have the teams that can do interdictions. I guess there's a question of whether we're going to sell the oil. Maybe we'd sell the oil and give it to Ukraine. I mean, that does sound like a smart idea.

I would never happen probably. Not with this admin, in my opinion. Yeah. Yeah, that's what I think we're looking for. Or whether we're going to actually use military force. by strikes in Venezuela. That is, I think everybody's looking for it. There's, I mean, we don't need anywhere near this level of assets.

If there was, whether, I mean, even we could do the interdictions and the strikes against these boats with far less than we have. So this, that's why people are, I think, really going to focus this week. I think we'll get to a point where it's use it or why is it. Use it or lose it. Right. Yeah, usually to let the guys go home Because what the fuck are we doing here?

We're spending money while they're out there, right? God knows how much we're spending With like that much, that many assets out there. Yeah. All right, cool. We'll keep an eye on that. I want everyone to do me a favor and go check out mixed podcasts, a pub and the porch.

Pub and porch applied stoicism. It's a great pod. It comes out every Monday morning. The links are in the description. Just go check it out and subscribe there. All the other guys links are in the description too. Andy and Jason And subscribe to our Patreon

Patreon.com slash the Teamhouse You get both eyes on geopolitics and the team house Add free early And you can ask questions You have a bit more access to us And you help support these shows Because we're cracking Mick always a pleasure

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