The Texan Podcast - Back From Summer Vacation: Smoke Filled Room Ep. 6

Episode Date: August 5, 2024

In episode 6 of The Texan's "Smoke Filled Room" podcast, Senior Editor McKenzie DiLullo and Senior Reporter Brad Johnson reflect on the no-so-normal summers they've seen in Texas politics the past few years. Now that summer is coming to a close, we see some clear battlegrounds for Texas seats up for election in November.

Winston, what is the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow? Winston, what do you think Dade Phelan's chances are of keeping the gavel? howdy folks and welcome back to another episode of smoke-filled room i'm mackenzie delulo senior editor at the texan joined by our senior reporter himself brad johnson br Bradley, how's it going? It's going, I guess. I was just in San Angelo earlier this week at the West Texas Legislative Summit. I was on a panel with Ross Ramsey, previously with the Tribune, and Ryan Chandler over at KXEN talking about the media just generally. It kind of became a bashing the media panel. Senator Charles Perry was moderating and doing most of the heavy lifting on bashing the media. I partook in it a bit, but he did most of it.

But it was a good discussion, and we talked about the problems with media, why we see bias in certain ways. Of course, it doesn't just swing one direction, but it was interesting to hear the perspectives from Ross and Ryan about it as well. Yeah, the crowd seemed to like it and it was cool to be out there and I'd never been to San Angelo before. It seemed like a great event. I think this was, it's like 20th and, um, it was, it was fun. Well, tell us, give me a preview of the other panelists perspectives on the issues facing media, right?

I mean, those are very different institutions represented on that panel, which is the mark of a great panel. What was the perspective either shared or not shared by all three of y'all? You know, I think the big one was that a lot of this new school of journalism, they view themselves as activists. And, you know, a great example of that is what happened at the New York Times when we saw a lot of the old guard get either silenced or kind of pushed out by the younger recent J school grads. And, you know, Ross said, you know, it is quite something to watch. And it's pretty predominant in the media sphere that, you know, this new school of journalism that they're actively part of the political fight,

not just watching from a side and recording what's happened and what's said, that's become predominant in the industry. And that's a big reason why the media has generally a poor reputation among the right. And a big reason for that is that most journalists, the ideological breakdown skews very heavily to the left. It's just naturally how it is. Left-leaning people generally want to do journalism more than right-leaning people do. And so that creates a lack of ideological diversity in the industry. And that causes natural problems. But that's not good. And it's spurred this, that coupled with the new outlook on how you do the job has caused kind of a snowball effect of problems in trust in the media. And so that was interesting to hear that I wasn't the only one who believed that,

especially someone as long-tenured and well-regarded as Ross Ramsey. He sees the same thing happening, and I think it's incumbent on every reporter to take themselves out of the political fight as much as possible and just watch and write about it or in ryan's case do tv spots about it um that's i'm glad that's not my realm uh this is my only foray into into video broadcasting but um yeah it was it was cool it was an interesting event i think there's a lot of discussion that could be had there and you and i could talk about this for days but it's really fascinating watching that difference and you know we've um gosh i could go into this so much but i think something really notable in that too is the, you know, aside from

the generational differences that the institutions themselves attract a certain kind of person. So you could talk about that too, is like, what came first, the chicken or the egg, right? Was it because these institutions have gone that way in terms of leadership and therefore attract those kinds of employees? Or is it the other way? And I think regardless, J-school is a partially why we exist. And the rights responded to that by instead of providing alternatives, maybe like us, like the Texan of saying, we're going to be very measured in how we go about this and kind of return to the old school, who, what, when, where of journalism and provide instead a very right-leaning alternative where the right is doing exactly what the left of center media is doing. And we explicitly state in our code of ethics, and we are really going off on a tangent here, and it's

completely my fault, and I recognize that. But we state explicitly in our code of ethics that we're right of center publication because our gripe with mainstream media is that they don't acknowledge their bias. We just don't want you to be able to tell when you read our stuff, when you listen to us talk, that that's our political persuasion. we just want to provide you with facts provide you with analysis um but i think that's been a very interesting thing that has progressively snowballed in the last couple of years is watching right of center media respond in that very aggressive way yeah yeah that's a point i made in the panel and um you know it the newton's third law is every action has an equal and opposite reaction. I mean, that's at play here.

Those who have chosen to do, basically do what they see the left-wing legacy media doing, but from a right-wing perspective, you know, that's one way of doing business. And I don't think it's particularly helpful, but, you know, it, that's the way they've chosen done it. But it's, it's this fight fire with fire outlook. And personally, I think that does a disservice to the industry overall and what it's supposed to be. But, you know, we're definitely few and far between in that outlook. Absolutely. And I will say also that it's understandable that folks would react that way and want to provide something as aggressive, you know, in terms of rhetoric or positioning as the left. So that all makes sense. It's just how do you brand yourself? What do you claim to be

right i think that's a lot of where that discussion breaks down is okay are we are we actively trying to combat the leftist in our media or are we just providing an alternative or both and how are you going to do that right and it's not just it's not just giving opinions you know it's how you present them too and the the tone in which you strike when when doing this like you know the daily wire has a certain way of doing it Breitbart has a different way of doing it but they're both kind of in that same sphere uh directionally and temperamentally I'd say yeah that's exactly what I was thinking of for those two outlets um which is interesting okay well should we actually get to what we're supposed to talk about on this podcast sure let's

do it oh first who's joined you today for the recording bradley i mean maslin's always in here recording yeah well maslin is the star of any show but i was talking about a new addition to the pod room winston the dog not a child is in the podcast room and he is currently laying underneath the table please do share brad why you say not a child why do you make that uh stipulation well because i I cannot stand this new trend of calling your pet your child. Personally, I abhor it, and I hate when people ascribe that to me. So, yeah. So you wouldn't call yourself a padre? God, no.

My sister bought me a dang hat that said padre and i wanted to just burn it immediately what did you do instead eventually yeah eventually i gave it to your husband so he could um annoy you with it which was a great hat no longer that hat is no longer in our possession and i will neither confirm nor deny deny who had a hand in its demise. But yes, it did end up in my home. So thank you for that, Bradley. Okay, let's talk politics. It's the whole point of this podcast and we're 10 minutes in.

We have a lot of topics we want to go through today. It's been a while since Brad and I have spoken on this pod. And we have a lot that we want to discuss, just the two of us. We're going to talk through post-primary in a summer, whether it's after session or after a primary, what does the political scene usually look like and how do we rank this summer in terms of the political craziness, the aftermath of Trump and Biden and Harris and where we're at now here in Texas. Talking about the speaker's race, are there any updates? Are there not? What do the speaker's chances look like to return to the gavel? Also, of course, we have more infighting between state leaders. We got Patrick, we got Phelan. It's really just

Patrick and Phelan. So where are we at with that? We'll talk about emergency items, predictions on what we think the big policy fights are going to become legislative session. And then of course, with the election looming, we'll talk about battleground seats in Texas. So we've got a lot to cover. Brad, why don't we go ahead and start? What is the summer usually like after a primary? That's what we're experiencing now. We're a few months removed from a very tough primary and runoff cycle this year. It was really in many ways the toughest we've seen in decades. So what is it usually like? Does the craziness subside? And what is it usually like even after a session, right? Those are two different political animals, but the end of both cycles is in May. Are you asking me what it's like in an election

year? Typical, typical. No, both session and election year they both both and you know both big events end and in may right and the general picks up a little bit toward the end of the summer well we're recording this on july 31st which typically is the month that everyone takes off in politics um at least during the summer things usually come to a grinding halt. Obviously, in the media, we have to continue to come up with stories, and it can be pretty difficult. I felt that this month. Things have happened, certainly.

I was going to say this month. I'd say last month. This month has been just fine in terms of content and stories. Especially the massive things happening at the federal level and race. But, you know, also the hurricane. So I guess it hasn't been too slow. But typically it is the slower month of the year because everyone's going on vacation. You know, they've just gone through a slog of a primary, and they need a break.

Or in a session year, they've just gone through a slog of a session. Now, that didn't really pan out last year because we had multiple specials. It also kind of didn't happen the year before because of the quorum break. So it's, I don't know, what is a typical year anymore? Like, I was, when I was looking at the docket here, something that came to mind is when I wrote the kind of grand preview of the governor's race, of Governor Abbott's re-election hope in 22, I put in there a story of this, I think in the 1950s or so, this British prime minister, Harold Macmillan, was asked by a journalist, you know, what's going to guide the direction of your tenure? After he had won, his party had won plurality in parliament and he secured the prime ministership. And he said flatly, events, dear boy, events. And we get caught up in this politically or just standard life.

We get caught up in this minutiae. How does this one decision on messaging affect the Trump campaign or the Harris campaign? Will it get them across the line? And really what guides an administration or a campaign, something that's massive and significant is things that happen and usually you cannot foresee them um you're laughing because i'm sorry i'm really laughing because because well because this is so obvious but it's so not right but the folks this is the kind of high quality analysis you can get at the texan is events dear boy events well i think it does have a certain amount of wisdom to it and oh absolutely it's just funny isn't it that that is like it's funny yeah i agree and and so i wrote that in the

in the abbott um article and it didn't get as much attention as my lead for the the beta one I did, even though I was happier with the Abbott one. Look at the grin on your face talking about these leads. Oh my gosh. So I put that in there, but basically I was recounting just all of the insanity that had happened. Insanity in terms of massively impactful things that the governor has little or no effect on, but that impacted his governorship massively. You know, I cut it off at the 2019 session, I think. But you go back even slightly before then, you had the Beto wave. Then move into 19, you have the Kumbaya session, and leading into the summer, it's pretty quiet until, guess what?

The Bonin tape drops, and that eventually results in the ouster of a sitting house speaker. Well, then you have, then you go into the next year and COVID hits. Well, as soon as we get through that just insane year that was 2020, including a presidential election and all the stuff that happened there with the storming the Capitol and the election contests.

Well, right after that, we get into this session that's going to be very contentious on a whole host of issues. And we have a new House speaker. Well, we have the power grid collapse. The power grid collapses. They spend a month focusing almost entirely on that. And you get to the end of that session and House Democrats rulings, the biggest of which was Dobbs v. Jackson overturning Roe and establishing the trigger ban. And then we have the Uvalde shooting. Then you get into 23. I'm sure I'm missing some things, but the point is like these

massive events just happen constantly, and you can't foresee them, and they affect everything. You hit 23, and you have this knock-down, drag-out fight between the House Speaker and Lieutenant Governor over property taxes, and that affects all this other stuff. Well, then at the very end, we have impeachment. I mean, it's just one thing after another. And that's the one constant in everything, that things are going to happen, and it's going to affect a lot. But you never know what it's going to look like. And I mean, it's, of course, easy to say, in retrospect, of course, that's going to happen. But, you know, we lose sight of course, easy to say in retrospect, of course that's going to happen,

but we lose sight of that, I think, day to day, that really the things that are ultimately going to impact the direction of what these phenomenon we're talking about, whether it's elections, legislative sessions, all this other stuff, it's just out of our hands and it's unclear what it's elections, legislative sessions, all this other stuff. It's just out of our hands, and it's unclear what it's going to be, but it's going to be massive, and we know that. So feel free to add anything in there to that long diatribe. I had a rough outline of the different plot points in the last few years, but I was specifically thinking about the summers

and you filled in the gaps so skillfully and hit all the high points. So I have nothing to add, but I think the big question here is, okay, when it comes to summertime, which is typically the political lull, that's when lawmakers, staff, consultants, you name them, lobbyists,

any sort of related profession decides, hey, I'm going to take my family on vacation and make sure that we're forgetting the political cycle here for a little bit. And of course, there's always the looming potential for a crazy election cycle or some big negative hits or some drama in the presidential race, a special session or two or three, there's always the potential for those things to happen. But that is typically when there's enough of a lull where folks can take that time and take a little bit of break from the insanity and the whirlwind of the political cycle. How does this summer compare, Brad? I'll start, but I want to talk through how we think this

summer compares to previous summers where, again, I think last summer takes the cake. That's my opinion in terms of Texas politics, not just generally speaking, but let's talk Texas politics. Let's not talk national. We're talking about specifically the Texas cycle here. I think last summer kind of takes the cake, at least in terms of recent memory. My first foray into Texas politics was in 20 or 2017, excuse me, in the 85th session. And all we had then was a special session that specifically related to

trees in Austin. That was the big, big, huge deal at the time. And there were 20 items on the special session agenda. Yeah. It was this before, this was before your time but

um the city of austin was getting a little uh ahead of itself with its regulation in terms of uh trees and residential areas and the legislature came in and had some things to say about that that was the big state versus local issue at the time sounds like a pre-governor also it it certainly was absolutely as are many different policy fights but that was the first one i was around for that where the state and local um was so at the forefront and the governor i think added 20 items to that list went through them it was like the most chill special session i've been around for and admittedly there are a lot of folks who listen to this podcast, I'm sure have far more experience than either of us. But I think last summer takes the cake. This summer, in terms of Texas politics specifically, I'd rank it, if we're going based on

seven summers, I'd rank it kind of mid-pack. There's certainly a lot going on, but a lot of the drama that we're dealing with here is related to the federal level and of course there's a trickle-down policy uh with national politics and texas politics but i'd still it's wild it's crazy we're dealing with actual historic moments that will remember where we were when uh we hear about them when we see them but i still in terms of texas politics would rank it like third or fourth in the last seven years. Yeah, I'd agree with that. You know, the biggest thing that's happened Texas politics-wise this summer, I mean, you had the runoffs, of course.

So there's that, the speaker, most notably the speaker avoiding defeat there. And then, which, by the way, I compiled a list of the voters in that race, and their voter histories. You know, there's been talk about Democrats sealing the deal for Phelan. And, you know, based on the small margin of victory for Phelan, there's a case to be made there, absolutely. You know, pull up the numbers real quick. So, like, there were just under 3,000 voters with some level of Democratic history between 2016 and 22 that voted in the HG21 runoff. But, you know, it's more complicated than that. When you dive further, you different differences in voter history um and so you know when when you look closer you

have a good chunk of those that have some sort of republican history there so i posted that on twitter i found it interesting to actually look at the breakdown rather than just seeing the, you know, 3,000 Democrats won the election for Phelan. It's not, that's not entirely accurate. And it's actually far more nuanced than that. But yeah, because of the very small margin of victory that there's a case to be made there but regardless you had that then you had but I don't count the runoff as part of the summer I'm counting like post runoff right I think that's when it that's what it ends like let's start June okay yeah well then the biggest thing in Texas is the the hurricane and the fallout we've seen there. You know, as we sit here, the House State Affairs Committee is grilling the Centerpoint guys over that.

And so, and that was after a day of getting grilled by the Senate. So they're in for a rough stretch here. And leading into the session, you know, there's going to be a lot of legislation aimed at them. We'll see how that shakes out. But that's the biggest thing. So, yeah, it's going to be a lot of legislation aimed at them. We'll see how that shakes out. And that's the biggest thing. So it's been fairly calm relative to what we've seen recently, particularly with the last two summers.

Well, last three summers? Yeah, because I guess if you count 22 because there was the governor's race so that was pretty hectic yeah absolutely and i think a reason i put it mid-pack is because of the federal uh events that are going on that have affected the the whole scheme of conversation in texas politics so that's why i rank it a little bit higher. I think the hurricane is the most directly related, but I mean, an assassination attempt, a president opting not to run, dropping out of the race,

endorsing his vice president, all those things are obviously very big deals that have huge consequences for how Texas will move forward. Well, that actually leads into the next topic. Some of these massive events that have happened this month, not just this summer, just a couple weeks ago, you had the assassination attempt, and then you had the Biden dropping out and being replaced with Kamala Harris. How do you think that affects the race going into, I guess, the homestretch of this

campaign? Yeah, wild that we're in the homestretch also. That seems insane. I mean, does it count as a homestretch? We do have, what, five months left? I don't know. When does the homestretch start? Well, we have our nominees. Once the nominees are put, like, I feel like that's well no i i i take that back i don't agree with myself um i would probably say september uh is the home stretch yeah well the beginning of the fall once the beginning exactly that that works here's the deal and i said like this is as soon as biden dropped out harris jumped in. She got his endorsement. All the dominoes were falling and the endorsements were all lining up behind Harris. I mean, it was so obvious that this shortened the extent.

OK, I have to really qualify this. An assassination attempt is an unbelievable tragedy. And the fact that former President Trump was almost shot and killed is unbelievable. Did it absolutely bolster his chances of reassuming his position in the White House? Absolutely. And after something like that happens, your campaign is tasked with taking advantage of that, right? That potency level and that lifespan of what his team could do with that was shortened so quickly when that wild switch happened and the Democrats were dominating the headlines. It happened unbelievably quickly, and I think they knew that too, right? So I think that's the big takeaway. I am so curious

to see going forward now that we're kind of solidified with Vice President Harris, now that the conversation isn't so much more about, oh, Biden dropped out and what that means. It's, okay, here are our two candidates. What level of pivoting happens for either of them back to the points that have done them well on social media, in their ads. I'm very curious to see how that pivot happens and who can dominate the news cycle. Because these are two huge historic, unbelievable events. And it's not unprecedented. We certainly are very careful throwing around that term. But it has been wild. An absolutely wild and historic month.

And how I think both campaigns, just with the sheer circumstances they're dealing with here, have a lot to work with in terms of gaining independent support. And we were seeing people like Zuckerberg say positive things about Trump. In what world would we have expected that? There were wild, wild things that have been happening in terms of different talking heads being not lambasting Trump and maybe not endorsing, maybe stopping short of endorsing him. But that tells you a lot lot right um when you have a polarizing figure like that so anyways it's just fascinating i don't i i just like i'm just curious what these next few months will look like and what the what the narratives will be and we're seeing it we're seeing them shape we already kind of see them but we have a lot of time between now and november

yeah what do you think we saw a massive enthusiasm bump for Democrats once they booted if they kept Biden on and that's why you saw this snowball behind the scenes you know as soon as I said this in Slack the moment I saw Sherrod Brown for a senator from Ohio come out and say Biden needs to drop out, I knew Biden was done at that point. It's easy to say in hindsight, but I said it in Slack. But you did. Yeah. The reason is, it's from my home state. I know of Sherrod Brown very well, and he is the only person in the state, the only Democrat in the state of Ohio who can hold a statewide seat. brad are you from ohio some people have said yes sources have indicated and were you uh very quick on the draw when you wanted to share your for your your uh old slack message saying that biden this was the nail in in Biden's coffin when it was in fact evident that he was

going to drop out. How quickly did you share your, your win there? To use a, a term that one of my illustrious colleagues once didn't know the answer or the, the definition of I really spiked the football. Could I roll my eyes anymore?

Unreal. No. What we're learning here, Brad, is that you're a man of great wisdom and also great humility. Yes. And you can continue now. This is true. So I knew as soon as I saw Sherrod Brown, he would not come out on a limb like that unless it was going to happen and unless he was

the biggest or one of the biggest dominoes to fall behind the scenes to get this massive change to occur. So, but we see, like you said said like you pointed out everything was was um the whole news cycle was about the assassination attempt and the fallout from that this the um uh secret service hearings that kind of thing and then all just on a dime it flipped when when biden dropped. And it's been all Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party in their nomination since. It's amazing how much it extinguished the assassination attempt as a current and constantly discussed talking point in news outlets. So the thing I find interesting and the question I have is, how is the Trump campaign going to define Harris? And will they be able to effectively define her? That's the key here. Because you saw that Trump is still ahead in most of the swing states in

polls that we've seen recently. But it's a lot smaller of a margin than it was against Biden. I think the last one I saw was Harris was up in Michigan and Pennsylvania, which are two very important states for her and Democrats. But Trump still had the advantage in most of these swing states, but it was a lot closer than it was when Biden was the nominee. And, you know, I think people saw, average voters saw this candidate in Biden for president, and their eyes were telling them one thing in their ears, including Harris, who was among those in the Democratic Party who was saying, no, Biden's perfectly fine, he's cogent and sharp as a tack.

Well, the eyes were telling you one thing, your ears were telling you something different, and the eyes won out. And I think just the sheer amount of polling that had been put out there showing very big problems for Biden as the nominee just became too much to bear and they pulled the trigger. And so Harris going forward, you know, she's known on a national stage, but she's not as defined as like Biden was. Now, Republicans are going to try and label her with the border problem.

And she was the lead on the border situation for the White House. At least she was tasked with overseeing it day to day. It wasn't all on her, but a lot of it was. And so this is where Republicans are going to go and have gone right now. But will that be successful? I don't know. The other question is, I'm curious to know, and I don't know if we'll ever find out, why Biden didn't resign the presidency to give Harris basically a five-month run as the commander-in-chief. Maybe something is going on behind the scenes.

I don't know what that is, or they know something's coming, but you'd think that would be smart instead she's running as the vice president for a rather unpopular president right now and have instead of being able to shake off all of his previous record and establish her own in these few months she's now stuck to run on essentially his, his record. And yeah, I'm, I'm just curious why that happened or why that didn't happen. I should say. Gosh, I feel like there's, that's such a double-edged sword though, because if she plays her cards right, she also has the opportunity to because i think honestly and this could be a hot take i think harris is more well defined in republican circles than in democratic and i think she has a very big opportunity to um in her campaign market herself as exactly how she

wants to and we're already seeing you know she knows she has a likability problem we're seeing her campaign attack that head-on her social media presence. It's an unbelievable effort. And I think it's been very effective, right? And I don't know how effective it would be to have her actually in the White House while she's running a presidential campaign, right? She's not an incumbent who's done this before. So yeah, make her president and have her run a presidential campaign. Well, she's had a presidential campaign before excuse me but in this she's not been the nominee it's an entirely different ball game and everybody knows it so i i think there's it's kind of a double-edged sword i totally get it and having the commander

in chief uh situation as part of your resume obviously helps in a presidential cycle, but I don't know. I'm just, I'm not convinced that actually helps her so much as coming in entirely fresh as a quote unquote untested presidential candidate might benefit her more. Well, no one had to be a distraction for her, right? She'd have to do that job in addition to running for president. So I get it. I get your point in terms of that. But, you know, I can't help but think the optics of her sitting down with leaders, global leaders for photo ops. I can't help but think that would be good for her because the Republicans and Democrats don't matter here. It's the middle that's going to decide this, and particularly the middle in seven swing states. So, you know, that the chance to kind of present some bona fides, some presidential bona fides, I think would go

a long way for her. That's not going to happen. Or at least she's gonna have to go about it in a different way. But I just kind of I can't help but think it might be a missed opportunity for them. And maybe it doesn't matter. You know, maybe the assassination attempt just ensures Trump is going to win, which it did look like that, especially before Biden, obviously before Biden dropped out, period, and we saw this enthusiasm bump. But now I'm not so sure, and I don't know if anybody really knows what's about to happen.

It's just really up in the air. It's like the Wild West. Yeah, to use an overdone comparison. it's just really up in the air. It's like the Wild West. Yeah. To use an overdone comparison. It is, though, Brad. It's like the Wild West. In what way is it like the Wild West? Let me have my moment.

It's just, let me just say turns of phrase and not be scrutinized for them. That doesn't make sense. How is it not? Well, no. Are we going to argue over this? I mean, we should actually have an argument on this podcast for once because we never do until we turn the camera off.

Yeah, it's true. Well, I think you're dumb for bringing that up. And I think it's stupid. And it is like the Wild West. And there's lawlessness and craziness happening everywhere. And if you disagree, then you're stupid. It's a very well thought out and nuanced take. I thought so. Thanks, Bradley.

Anything more on the federal side before we jump into a lot more of what we should be talking about here? Only in that this is going to have a lot of ramifications for down ballot. What that will be, I have no idea. But maybe if we hit some battleground seats later, we can talk about where that'll play. Yeah, absolutely. Well, let's talk about the speaker. You sat down with Representative Cole Hefner, Republican from East Texas, and the podcast is live now. So definitely, folks, go check it out. Great interview. But he is an ardent supporter of Speaker Phelan. cycle where he was challenged uh pushed to a runoff and emerged from the runoff victorious by a very slim margin of only a few hundred votes um so walk me through our members talking are they on vacation with their families what does it look like for the speaker right now in uh end of july early august well things are way up in the air um you know, as I've talked on previous podcasts, the math is good for him in certain ways.

In other ways, it's not good, depending on what it is we're going to prioritize here. And by that, I mean, is 76 the only number we're talking about? Are we not taking into account the GOP caucus vote and that only matters insofar as members adhere to it that's the the votes to endorse a selected speaker candidate and by the bylaws members are then required under those bylaws to go vote for that endorsed candidate but we've seen members not do that. As recent as the last vote we had

when Representative Tenderholt ran against Phelan and we saw him take it to the floor and two other members, former Representative Brian Slayton and then and current Representative Nate Schatzlein, both voted for Tenderholt. So they went against the caucus bylaws. We've also seen Representative Tom Alverson, who is running against Phelan, say he's going to take this to the floor. So, you know, the question

is, at what point do we just throw these bylaws out? I asked Hefner that, and I don't think he had an exact answer, but he recognized it's a fair question, and I don't know what's going to happen with that. We might see some changes in bylaws by the time we get to the speaker vote in December. But overall, you know, members are, they're definitely talking. There are conversations happening all the time. I don't think anyone, though, is, even if they have decided one way or the other on Phelan, they've not decided on who they're going to support for speaker. I keep hearing discussions about at least two more candidates jumping in at some point. Whether that's names that get thrown around a lot are Representative James Frank.

I've heard Representative David Cook. Todd Hunter's name has been thrown in the mix. Drew Darby's name has been thrown in the mix Drew Darby's name has been thrown in the mix there's just too much up in the air right now and a lot of it's going to have to do with what we see the actual membership makeup look like

after the general election do Republicans stay pat do they add seats, lose seats what's it look like an ancillary to that is the democrat the democratic caucus you know that right now they're the biggest voting block but there's also divisions there and so there's an internal squabbling about who should lead in the party itself in the caucus who should be given prioritization for

certain things it's they're fractured to not as fractured as the Republicans but they're fractured to I think they'll probably ultimately coalesce behind somebody but it's possible they don't I mean you know we saw it when feeling first one we saw a number somewhere between 10 and 20 Democrats align with Phelan after he had a good number of Republicans, and that put him over the top. And then you saw support snowball behind Phelan, and eventually he slammed the paper on the table, said this race is over, I have it won. Does that happen again?

There's too much up in the air right now uh in numbers their minds can change very quickly and have already um we don't even know who who the the candidates are going to be at this point so um i'd say everyone is discussing it, but far from decided. And of course, leadership exposes those fractures. If you have the majority, if you're in leadership, if you're making those decisions, it's much easier to be able to expose and see those fractures among your members because you're making decisions constantly about what will or won't pass and how strong it will be. When you are the minority party, it's easier to unite behind, oh, let's just lambast the majority party and try and defeat the measures they're putting forward. It's not the same in terms of being able to see the fractures among the parties. Brad, I also want to say, last Friday, last Friday you covered, well, this will be two Fridays

ago when this comes out, some more infighting between the Speaker and the Lieutenant Governor. What is going on now in this interim? So there was a, I mean, what aren't these guys going to fight about? It's just constant. But this case you're talking about is there were letters sent out, initial directions for these legislative appropriation requests, requests made by agencies to kind of just set a baseline for what funding is going to be asked for by these agencies as we start the next budget process. And in this, priorities were kind of outlined. You know, we had, we saw Lieutenant Governor Patrick and Governor Abbott sign a letter together

asking for these agencies to kind of prioritize board security, property tax cut, mental health legislation, or mental health funding, and power plant loans through the TEF, an additional appropriation there, and then school choice, of course. Well, Phelan came out and Phelan issued his own letter that was separate from that, and it just mentioned, I think, property tax and border security and left out the other ones, and then it said, he said members are going to decide what these priorities are when we're talking about spending money or any other legislation. So that caused, that led to the lieutenant governor then tweeting out yet another hit against the speaker

saying he's trying to kill school choice, uniting with Democrats, basically the classic hits that we've heard from him over and over this cycle. I guarantee it won't be the last time we hear something like that from him. You know, he definitely has a stake in this speaker's race, and he's definitely trying to, you know, thumb the scale. I mean, we saw that in the primary.

He got really involved against the Speaker. And so in this letter situation, you know, we see some probably differences in priority and, you know, it looks like he doesn't want to stick his neck out too far committing to certain things. And a lot of that definitely has to do with the Speakership. You know, there's still a contingent of members. Democrats are the biggest group, but still some Republicans who don't like education savings accounts and aren't going to support it no matter what. You know, that's an eye towards them in terms of the speakership race, stick with me. So there's that. And really, like I said, this is all about the speaker fight.

This is not really about school vouchers or education savings accounts, school choice, however we want to call it. It's not about that. It's about the speaker fight. And so there's going to be more to it, but you know, it does lay out some, some potential dividing lines in fishers. We see if feeling does retain the gavel and sticks around. Yeah, I think we'll, um, definitely see more infighting in that. We've talked about this so many times that during primary cycle, you and I, on this podcast,

on the Weekly Roundup, I mean, the conversation was so much, okay, if Phelan survives, how are these two going to legislate? How is the legislature even going to function? And we're seeing that now, right? Now that he is returning to the House, the gaveled CBD, but he's returning to the Texas House with the chance of maintaining his speakership. And if he does, here's a look, here's a preview at what legislating will look like in the Texas legislature come January. Now, some will be excited. Deadlock means certain bills don't pass that they're not excited about, right? That's always a big plus for some folks.

And for others, it's not a good thing at all. It's like, hey, we have some major issues we want to pass. Either way, right? Drama, to be sure. And this is just a preview, a very small slice of the cake of what will come in January if Speaker Phelan maintains the gavel. What do you think, Brad, will be the big policy fights heading into next session? And not just between the Speaker and the Lieutenant Governor, right? I think those are the big issues because they're the one, I mean,

they're the big leaders of their chambers. They talk about issues. We hear from them more often. But even in terms of lawmakers talking about different issues committee hearings interim hearings that you're paying attention to what do you think the big policy fights are going to be next year or even left over from the previous session that's oftentimes what would become the big issues in the next is what didn't get passed in the previous session uh you know we're going to see center point related issues talked about that's going to be a big fight um the china the china land bill that's there's gonna be a redux of that i think that's more about what kind of thing passes rather than does it pass at all um how strong might it be what are the provisions yeah right uh what shape

does it take same thing for school choice I think everyone's pretty much accepted. It's going to, school choice is going to pass in some form. Question is, is it tied to, you know, education funding and teacher pay raises like they tried to do last year? It probably has to be, I think. But then you get into the nitty gritty of what does this program look like? Who runs it? Does the TEA run it? Does the comptroller's office run it?

How much money are we putting into this? Is there a cap? Is there not? There's a lot to decide on that, and it's not so straightforward, even though it does seem like it probably will pass. You know, another one that came to mind when I was thinking about this was bail reform. This will be, I think, the third try to pass a bail reform constitutional amendment. And Democrats aren't really budging.

And Republicans are far from a 100-vote supermajority. So that's probably going to die again in the Texas House. I just don't see that gap being bridged this time around. Another one, the voter fraud prosecution role. That's the issue we saw with the CCA ruling, Court of Criminal Appeals, that became a big fight in that set of elections, and Paxton won each of those elections. He's made this a big issue about his office not being able to lead on prosecuting voter fraud. Instead, they have to be invited in by a district attorney. So that's something to watch, I think. School safety fund was something that died at the end of last session,

and I think the specials too. And I am sure they're going to do something along those lines. We saw all these other funds created, yet the school safety fund didn't pass, didn't get to the ballot for voters to decide on. Why did it die again? Can you refresh my memory on what happened there? I just think it timed out. I think they were – they spent so –

I'm putting you on the spot here. I know. Yeah, I don't remember. I know Ken King carried it in the House, and it just kind of stalled out, I think. I think they spent a lot of time on the border bill, as before, and everyone after that, everyone was just done, sick and tired of being in the city, and it just petered out i think i can't remember if there was an exact reason um but it didn't pass so i'm sure that'll be back then well folks if we're wrong we'll come back and correct you later and if you know the story please let me know um i am having trouble of recalling it at the moment. Then you have, I mentioned school choice. I think I mentioned this in, this is what my fourth reading newsletter was on this week.

The Texas Enterprise, Texas Energy Fund dollars, Governor Abbott and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick want an additional $5 billion appropriated. Originally, last session, the Senate itemized $10 billion, and the final version in the budget was $5 billion. So they're going to come back for that. That's for these low-interest power plant loans to build more natural gas dispatchable generation in the ERCOT market. Then I think you'll probably see more stuff related to the Reader Act. We saw that that's

hit some hiccups in court. They would probably do something on that end. The Reader Act specifically dealing with inappropriate sexual material found in public school libraries available to children at very young ages. was there and he's the water guy and he kept mentioning it that this needs to be addressed and you know if you look at the chart of the um the water supply projections versus population like it's gonna it's not good in you know 50 or so years uh we're gonna have far more people than we can supply with water um so that's something that they're gonna have to figure out i've talked a lot about the the reservoir up in northeast texas the fight over that and that's something that they're going to have to figure out. I've talked a lot about the reservoir up in northeast Texas, the fight over that, and that's kind of dragged out. But that's happening all over the state. How do you fix this very difficult in the weeds problem? And especially one that doesn't get a lot of attention from the general populace, because people just take it for granted.

It's exactly how the power grid was until we had the collapse, and then that became a hot-button political issue. Well, water's the same kind of issue there. And then another thing I heard suggested was kind of a union reform bill. Basically, specifically, Wisconsin did this in 2010 or so, and it caused an uproar and resulted in two or three recall elections against Governor Scott Walker, all of which he survived. But basically, prohibiting mandatory dues in public sector unions. It'll probably exempt police and fire unions.

And that's what Wisconsin did. It was state employees, county employees, and teachers unions that it applied to. I mean, the teachers union stormed the the capital camped out there like they it was massive protests and it was a huge spectacle and then speaking from experience in Ohio they tried something similar at the time and it got killed at the ballot box because they didn't exempt police and fire. So there's no way, if Texas does try and do this, that they're going to include police and fire in that. That's just a death knell for anyone trying to get that reform passed.

So, you know, those are some things that came to mind. I'm sure there's a lot more. Oh, I didn't mention taxpayer-funded lobbying. You know, that's something that has stalled out each of the last three sessions or more. And maybe this time they'll finally pass it, but I don't know. I'd kind of bet not at this point just because we haven't – I haven't seen anything to indicate otherwise. But, you know, that's another thing to watch for. I'll say that taxpayer-funded lobbying probably needs a renaissance like School Choice has experienced after not having much momentum for a few sessions, but previously enjoying a lot of the attention of state leaders. And obviously now we've seen the governor jump behind it.

I don't think that will happen necessarily with the same veracity as with school choice. But in order for taxpayer-funded lobbying to pass, I think it's got to see some sort of at least media frenzy where right-of-center folks are jumping on it and doing the rounds and pushing it and think tanks jumping on board in ways that aren't just putting it on a list but really going to bat for it. So I'm with you. Like you indicated, you know, school choice was a national push and Texas was just part of that. I'm not aware of a similar national push to ban taxpayer funded lobbying. So, and you know, with that, there are difficult questions to figure out. And that's been one of the main criticisms of this proposal. Like

cities and counties can just hire a government affairs person to do the same thing. What's the point of banning a lobbyist from doing it? You know, that's something I've heard from Republicans who are, at first glance, favorable towards the idea, and then, you know, local officials who think it's a good idea, but then they look at it further and they have concerns or skepticism. So I don't know how they're going to figure that out or fix it, but I think that'll be – it probably will not have the legs, I would bet. But who knows? Who knows? We still have a long runway here to the session, and a lot can happen between now and then. So who knows we still have a long runway here to the session and a lot can happen between now and then

so who knows and certainly has been a big topic of conversation for more than three sessions i'll throw that in there for the sake of our ceo and founder connie burton um let's talk about potential emergency items uh these explain to brad when we say this will be a policy fight or this will be an emergency item like the difference between those in terms of how it actually plays out when session starts. So every session, the governor gives a speech and lays out emergency items. Practically, what this means is the deadlines for the legislature, the 30-day prohibition on considering anything in committee and 60-day prohibition on considering anything on the floor,

doesn't apply to these things, to any legislation that touches these issues. And I forget exactly everything the governor put in his one last year, but I think school choice was on it. Board of Security was on it. ERCOT reform was on it. So property taxes as well. But basically he can make this list, say these are my priorities, you guys need to get to work on it ASAP.

And then usually, I mean, they're working on it, but they're not, like, working on it at the committee or publicly at the committee or floor level in this span. Like, I don't remember ever seeing anything brought to the floor before the 60-day line for an emergency item. I don't recall that ever happening. So you're saying they're working on it, but they're not working on it. They're definitely working on it behind the scenes.

That's for sure. I'm kind of just making fun of you because you said working on it a lot of times. Oh. Well. Yeah. Sorry about it. Don't I look like a fool so what do you think potential emergency items could be what's going to be on the governor's agenda i think obviously first one right off the bat school choice when you spend the millions that

abbott did in the primary cycle and the political capital for the last year year and a half it's really like a year and nine months, almost two years now, it's going to be an emergency item for the governor. And he has a new incoming class of freshmen who are ready to get to work on that issue. And earlier, Brad, when you said that school choice might still include teacher pay raises, more public school funding, I think that there is certainly a case to be made for that. I think i get it absolutely but i think also which i've said before there is a momentum switch for school choice that uh we did not uh see last session and there certainly is a stronger push um more supportive members members who are coming into the to the legislature knowing specifically why they received the support

of the governor um and why that they are holding that seat where the money came from um so it's a very different dynamic at play this cycle as opposed to last and um the governor put his money where his mouth was and uh which he had been criticized for not doing so in the past saying he was supportive of school choice but supporting candidates who were not supportive of that issue, of his pet issue. So I still think we are going to certainly get a much stronger school choice proposal that could make it across the finish line this session than last session. How strong? That's what we'll find out. But I think there is a chance for a stronger proposal to make it across the finish line. What other emergency items should we be looking out for? Border security,

no doubt. That'll be on there, especially considering how much of a political issue it is at the moment, given the presidential race. And, you know, it'll also depend on could also play into who wins the election but yeah the border issue is not going away at all and I don't think in every poll that is the most pressing issue for voters in the state of Texas

far and away so that'll be on there I think I saw Jasper with the tribune tweeted out after looking in the the fiscal size up the amount of money that the state of texas has appropriated this biennium to the border efforts is like 6.5 billion around there uh there's gonna be more more to play there. And, you know, added this conversation, the fact that the comptroller has estimated a treasury surplus of like $21, $22 billion

going into the next session to appropriate. So that's something that I'm sure will be added there. Property taxes will probably be on that. That was also on the letter that Abbott and Patrick wrote, as for Phelan, I believe. So that'll be in there as well. I don't know how much money they'll put towards this, an additional relief. But it was interesting. At the summit, I heard Senator Perry

say on stage something along the lines of, you know, everyone loves a good tax credit, talking about the property tax relief. But it's also temporary, given the way the finance, the school finance system and the property tax system work and something like water is a lot more permanent and so we need to put our emphasis on that to fix that so that's possible and then the power plant loan program adding additional money there I see that the other one that was mentioned in these letters is the mental health funding not sure what what sure what shape that will take, but I see all those being emergency items. You know, I could see, depending on how this discussion plays out in the race

or in the coming months, the China land bill possibly being on there from the governor. I don't know that that will happen, but I could see that being put up there. So, you know, he might do bail reform as well. That was an emergency item in 21. And it fell off after it was clear it didn't have the votes. Maybe he tries again to put that on there but i don't know would you put some sort of china land bill prioritization uh almost in like the same category for the governor as the colony ridge issue of last session yeah but was that was that on the the emergency items list i

don't think that was or you just i don't think it was i think general i almost kind of put it in the same category i don't think it was an emergency item but i think he but he the governor was naming it and going to bat for it but i if my memory serves me i think it was a little bit after all of that uh where the emergency items went out but i could be wrong but i kind of put them in the same category where it may not be put on his list as an emergency item, but it could be something he talks a lot about. Yeah. Media appearances and everything else. Yeah, I think the ball has been sufficiently advanced that it's not up in the air as a potential to pass anymore. It's probably going to pass.

Just what does it look like? And I would say that applied to pass anymore. It's probably going to pass. Just what does it look like? And I would say that applied to the colony ridge issue as well. We literally are just talking over each other. I was going to say it more just depends on whether or not how much involvement the governor or how much association the governor wants with that issue too, right? Does he want to be the as somebody very vocally supporting that bill which he's supportive of it but how much does he want to make it one of his things that he's uh in the news in the news for in the headlines for yeah that too and it's in addition to the procedural side of this, it's a signal for signal of prioritization and emphasis for the governor. Yep.

Very good, Bradley. I would say that the governor has the option to spike the football, wouldn't you? We know he likes spiking the football. I just wasn't sure if you knew what that meant, so i wanted to make sure i fit it in for you here i do have a related question so ut and a and m are going to play for the first time in a decade or so this year on thanksgiving or right is it on thanksgiving or the friday after i think it's friday after oh right before a family holiday that's kind of that's kind of could be some tough for some texas families well my question is and i hope if anyone on the governor's team's listening

to this probably not but if he goes to that game and i assume he will what color does he wear white we've seen him wear don colors for every tex Texas team whenever he goes there and of course he's a UT alum I believe right um so we know who his rooting interest is going to be in that game even if he won't say it out loud but what color does he choose does he go with a neutral gray that just says uh the state of like a the state seal state of Texas on it. Maybe that's something. I think it's just signature white or blue button down.

But he never wears those to the football game. Really? I mean, if he does, it has the longhorn or the A&M logo on it. Oh, that's, yeah, I'm picturing that fishing shirt kind of thing. That's what I should have said.

It's like his fishing shirt. Well, sure. But even with that, he's picking a side. So. Yeah, I guess it will be, I guess the state seal would be a good option.

It's like the, the Rob Lowe hat, image of him at a football game wearing the hat that just says NFL on it. That's really funny. Or like Donna Kelsey at Super Bowl

when both her sons were playing and split her jersey down the middle. Yeah, he could do that. That'd be interesting. He could pull a Donna Kelsey, get those blinged out Jordans or whatever it was that she was wearing. That's totally Governor Abbott's speed.

I can't wait to see him wearing that. That would be hilarious. Now I really hope someone from the governor's team is watching this. Okay, Brad, we are talkative. We have so much to discuss. I think what we're going to do here is we'll still hit a couple of battleground seats, discuss a little bit of the general, but this could be an entire other podcast. So stay tuned for a different episode of Smoke-Filled Room where we go into more detail on the battleground

races facing Texas. I will, off the bat, plug our war room. You'll find it under the election tab on our website, and it really is a one-stop shop for all things Texas elections. Our team works very, very hard on it. Shout out to Rob Lausches for being our data guru here and Brad for compiling so many of these numbers as well. But really what we do is we list the races that are the top to watch. We have fundraising numbers

from the last reporting cycle. We have polling where it's appropriate. We have background on the races. We have our Texas partisan index, basically the political union of every district listed by the district number. So lots of information. We have articles that relate to each race. You really can see everything at a glance and be directed to all sorts of information. So if you've not been familiar with the war room, I'd encourage you to go check it out. It's pretty flippant. Awesome. Let's talk real fast about the races that are on. We have the Supreme Court. We got the Court of Criminal Appeals. We've got four congressional races, one state senate race, and nine house districts. So a pretty sizable chunk there. And there is certainly a chance, too, that as certain candidates or opponents um challengers post bigger fundraising

numbers i might add a race or two um or take off a race or two it really depends these are the close of the close the ones we're really watching going into november brad give me one race that you're specifically uh taking a hard look at right now as it stands how can i pick one all right i'll pick one i'll pick this state. I might. If we have time. Are you going to say state senate? Yeah. Darn you. Okay, go ahead.

I'll pick the state senate race. That is Morgan LaMantia, the incumbent Democrat, against Adam Hinojosa, the challenging Republican. These two faced off last cycle, and it was a very narrow finish. LaMantia won by a few hundred votes. And so that right there presents an interesting dynamic. It is the closest Senate district in terms of partisan leaning. I think it's D-52 or 51, one of those two. Very close, and it's definitely winnable for Republicans.

And the reason I'm picking this is not just because it's an interesting contest between two viable candidates. And it's sure to see a ton of money dumped into it. But it holds a lot of implications for legislation going forward in the Senate. If Republicans can add one to their caucus, it gives them more leeway when they're negotiating behind the blocker bill and that sets the line for everything and they just suspend the rules to bring anything they want up. It doesn't go in sequential order like the House does. And so if you add, if you give more slack to the Republicans in terms of having that number of a supermajority. However loosely that is defined now as they have, the Senate has altered the line, they've moved it. Threshold. Threshold, thank you. And, you know, if let's say there's a disagreement on,

heck, the China land bill, like there was last session, it took a lot of negotiating, even in the Senate, to get it through there. You know, if there's something like that and Republicans are only – they only have a one-seat advantage in the – they have the most narrow of super majorities as possible on this, in the chamber. They need every Republican on there to vote to suspend the rules. So that gives members who may be skeptical about certain aspects of the bill more power to negotiate a change in that piece of legislation. So that race, and it's going to be something Dan Patrick focuses on a lot going forward. Obviously, he's big in the Trump campaign. He heads the Trump camp in Texas. But this is his chamber. and he got really involved in the SD30 race and he won that one as painful as that victory was for him and he's going to be very involved

in this one so if he can if he can win that if he can get Hinojosa in there that's going to give him more ability to do what he wants in the Senate in terms of legislation. Yeah, absolutely. Well, I'm going to go a different route here and talk about House District 37, where, you know, you're talking about a potential pickup for Republicans. This is a potential pickup for Democrats. Incumbent Jeannie Lopez is a Republican. But this is a district that is, according to our Texas Partisan Index, favors Democrats. Now, very slightly, 51%. But regardless, we have a Republican sitting in a Democrat-leaning district. And she's going to be facing Jonathan Gracio, which both candidates, the incumbent and the challenger, are both posting big fundraising numbers. They

both raised about $100,000 this last reporting deadline. We'll see how that goes. There's a lot of time left on that. But Lopez edged them out by about $10,000. But regardless, it was a pretty close contest there. And Lopez really, we've seen in terms of how she's legislated, you know, legislated more moderately in a lot of ways and is rated one of the more middle-pack Republicans and certainly reflective of her district in that way. But it's going to be very interesting to watch this all go down and talking about the location of this district, too. We're dealing with a South Texas, Cameron County-type Texas seat here where there's a lot at play, a lot of political dynamics to consider. And I'll be very interested to see here if Republicans do end up losing this seat and what that looks like.

So I'm excited to watch this one. It's a House district to watch where we have a Republican sitting in a Democrat-leaning district. Brad, do you want one more or should we peace out? Both the ones we picked were in the Rio Grande Valley. Yeah, sounds about right. I'll pick one more. I'll be quick. Be speedy.

House District 118. It's the only district in the state, in the House, rated even by our TPI. So that's Republican John Lujan, and he is facing Democrat nominee Christian Carranza, and she posted a pretty big fundraising haul this last, in the July semiannual. But Lujan, money's going to come in to protect him, as evidenced by the, I tweeted out, a fundraising notice for him. And it has a bunch of huge GOP figures headlining it, including Governor Abbott, Senator Ted Cruz, a few congressmen, and other ledge members. So the money's going to come in for Lujan. It's just a question of when. And I think that's going to start immediately.

You know, that race is going to be a massive one to watch. And it's going to be very important in the speaker's race and just general political discussions going forward in the House because this is such a battleground up for grab grab seats it's going to have a lot of implications absolutely well brad um tell winston i appreciate him being on this podcast he does not care one bit yes he does we love each other and he knows it and you know it and um yeah remember the days he doesn't do this anymore but remember the days when you'd bring him into the office and you'd get there inevitably before me and he'd run to my office to see if i was there yes i do remember

that okay but you were never there i needed folks no i wasn't it broke his heart i'm sure every time i'm sure i can't believe you would do that every time maybe that's why he doesn't that's why he doesn't check anymore he knows i wouldn't be there i tried to tell him you're sleeping in but he didn't believe it folks we so appreciate you listening to us blather along about texas politics um and wax eloquence for a bit at the beginning about all the things on our brains. We appreciate it. Thanks for listening to this episode of Smoke-Filled Room, and we will catch you next month.