The Texan Podcast - Post-Election Breakdowns, Numbers, and History: Smoke Filled Room Ep. 10

Episode Date: November 26, 2024

The post-mortem. The aftermath. The latest episode of "Smoke Filled Room."Senior Editor McKenzie DiLullo and Senior Reporter Brad Johnson dissect the numbers, explain the historical significance, and give a comprehensive breakdown of Texas' 2024 general election results.

In the end, it was just too much to separate between the Republicans and Democrats. And I think Trump won by, it was 14 points, but the... Are you doing math? I am. 1.5 million votes he won by. Why was that funny, Brad? Because I can't do math on the top of my head like that, especially on camera. I look like a fool.

Well, howdy, folks. It's Mackenzie here with Brad Johnson on another episode of Smoke-Filled Room. Bradley, your background is different than normal. We've kind of swapped places here. Yeah, it's much nicer than my normal background, either in the office or at my house. I am at my mom's house, who of course has all the stuff that makes a house look like a home. Meanwhile, mine's just a barren wasteland, which, you know what, is fine with me. So you're saying, yeah, that makes sense.

I think it probably just means maybe you need to take a trip to HomeGoods. Get a few little accoutrements for your living space. I was going to use the word accoutrements to quote you but you just stole my thunder from me were you actually i was yes it's something i steal from my husband he says accoutrements all the time well add that to the mactionary um that's true well brad what are we talking about today oh nothing you should just turn off the episode right now.

Also, I will say Brad and I, before we started recording already, we're kind of getting frustrated with each other. So we'll see how this episode goes. Yeah, it's off to a great start, I think. Did you say this is a smoke-filled room podcast? This ain't just another podcast. Yeah, I said smoke-filled. I think I said smoke-filled room. If I didn't, then excuse me.

Maybe I wasn't listening to you. But what's new? That's so normal. Guys, okay, Brad will walk into my office and request to talk to me about something. And then he will proceed to sit on his phone because obviously Brad's phone is going all the time. We understand. I have empathy for that.

But mind you, he's the one who requested to talk and I will respond to whatever question he poses and he'll be like, we got to talk about this. Okay. So I start talking about it and then he goes, it's very obvious very quickly that he's not listening to a single word that I'm saying. He's scrolling through his phone. He's texting. Occasionally he'll just like take a call mid-conversation.

It's so frustrating. And then he puts his phone down and goes, sorry, I didn't hear any of that. And it is the biggest time suck. Well, hazards of the gig. And a version of that was happening and it was different, but a version of that was happening

before we started the podcast, which is what had us in a very mini fight. Well, yes, and we are kind of reversed right now because you were actually in the office for once, and I am not in the office for this podcast. Yeah, I'm stealing your background here, sir. Reversed from how it had been for months while you were off playing in europe uh-huh brad you still not answering my question

as to what we're talking about today lord oh we are talking about the election that just happened and the things that happened during it, the trends we saw develop, a whole mishmash of political happenings. We might talk speaker's race a bit. Maybe a little bit what we saw in the November election or this month's election. Really, we're still in November, but it'll be a look at statewide trends, break down some numbers. Then we're going to go kind of up close and personal. We've already talked ad nauseum, I think, about the election at this point. So for this podcast specifically, we're going to go much more in depth, specifically in terms of South Texas. Some of these more suburban areas where we saw margins shift substantially in favor of Republicans. So we have a lot to break down, a lot of numbers to go through. And that's really what we're going to spend our time doing is

breaking all of that down and comparing and contrasting. All that happened November 5th and looking at Texas in a little bit more of a data-driven perspective than we have on other podcasts that we've done about the election. Sounds good to me. I'm sure it's a surprise to you, so I'm glad that it sounds good to you. Well, first off, Brad, it's Thanksgiving week when this will be published. What's your favorite Thanksgiving food, and why is it sweet potatoes? It is not those abomination of a food that is sweet potatoes it is

gravy okay stop your favorite thanksgiving food is a sauce i put it on everything and so without gravy it is just not thanksgiving if i have to pick something that's not gravy it'll be either turkey or mashed potatoes, of course. But gravy is the linchpin for the Thanksgiving meal. Put it on everything, including the dessert. You realize how insane that sounds? I agree with everything you said, but responding to a question about your favorite Thanksgiving food and saying gravy is crazy. There's logic to my thinking, and you know it.

Okay. Even if you don't like it. Well, mine is usually the stuffing or the dressing and sweet potatoes. Those are my favorites. Brad hates sweet potatoes. It makes me just trust him that much less. But happy Thanksgiving week, folks. We hope you enjoy and you can find time to listen.

If you're finding time to listen to this on a holiday week like this, we appreciate it. Additionally, before we jump into the data here, we do want to say that ticket sales for the 89th session kickoff event, it just went on sale. They're open to the public. They've been open to the public for about a week now. Definitely go and secure your tickets. Now, this is an all day panel discussion in Austin with a myriad of different lawmakers from across the political spectrum. We're gonna be talking about all sorts of different policy issues. Stay tuned for a schedule of the event. But it will be

at Texas Public Policy Foundation's theater in downtown Austin. It's just going to be really awesome. And we did this two years ago at the beginning of the 88th session, and it was a really fun event. I think really informative for folks who came and were excited about what that could mean for us this year. So definitely go check that out. We have links to sign up for tickets to register for tickets at the Texan. We also in your inbox, whether you're a subscriber, whether you're not, we have information there in your inbox, it's easy to find, I will say to subscribers get a very steep discount on tickets, it's like 40 bucks off, which is over half the basic ticket. So definitely, if you're not a subscriber, consider subscribing, support our over half the basic ticket. So definitely if you're not a subscriber, consider

subscribing, support our work at the Texan, make sure Brad can feed his dog Winston, but also know that you get awesome benefits like a 40 buck discount off your ticket for the kickoff. So go check that out. The discount code for the ticket is in subscribers inboxes. If you have any trouble finding it, reach out to events at the texan.news. Brad, anything to add on that front? No, it'll be a great event. And I'm looking forward to interviewing as many officials as I can on stage.

You know, it won't only be me holding these panels, moderating these panels, but I'm excited for the ones I get to do and am excited to talk to, talk to either, you know, staffers or legislators or just average readers about, um, state politics, whatever's going on at the time, who knows what's going to be happening at that moment, but, um, there'll be more than enough to talk about regardless and also if you're um a business at all we want to sponsor let us know reach out to me or mckenzie or one of our generic emails um i think events at the texan.news or you can just message either

of us on twitter uh or cell phone so um we'd love, we'd appreciate the support on that. Be a great help. And, yeah, I'm really looking forward to it. We already have some really awesome sponsors lined up too that we're super grateful for. And we'll announce those in the coming days. But it's a very exciting time as we're kind of putting this all together. A lot of it's put together, but these, you know, final touches and getting the yeses from folks is always exciting. So, and it comes soon.

Like session is so, is just right around the corner. And, you know, combine Thanksgiving and Christmas, you know, add that to the equation and Lord knows this is going to go by very quickly. So make sure you get your tickets and come join us on January 28th in Austin. Okay, Bradley, let's talk election. Like I already said, we've talked so much about the election, but there's still so much to get into in terms of even just like the margins that changed. I think that was the big story from this election was how much the margins in Texas shifted, particularly in parts of the state that Republicans have been eyeing for a very long time and Democrats have been really trying to maintain their support in. But first, let's go statewide. Let's look broad picture.

For the first bit of this episode, talk to us about the GOP presidential margin in Texas for the last 20 or so years. So Donald Trump, obviously, he won by almost 14 points this time. And that was a pretty significant increase from 2020. I'll go through where the Republican margin has gone since 2000. So you had Bush, obviously a Texan that gives him a leg up in Texas. He, in 2000, won by 21 points. He increased that in 2004 to 23 points. Then when John McCain was the nominee in 08, he won by just short of 12 points. Romney increased that in 2012 to 16 points. Then you have Trump come on ballot in 16, that margin dropped to 9%. Uh, then obviously

in 2020, it was 5.6%. So it dropped. And, um, you know, there are a lot of, there's been a lot of speculation as to why, whether it's disenchantment with Trump as a candidate. I'm sure that played into part of it for some voters. Was it that Trump was, the Republicans were in power, and so this was just a natural recoil and nadir for the Republicans after taking the White House and holding for the first couple years a, control of Congress as well. Uh, and then Democrats started cutting into that. I think they took the Senate. Um, and then in 20, I think they, they took the house. I can't remember. Regardless, it shifted up. And, um, a lot of that was natural reaction to an incumbent Republican president. And at that point, a very unpopular one, and also just Trump himself, right? But then things flipped, and this year,

he increased his margin to 14, which I don't know if anybody was truly expecting. A lot of the polls had him anywhere between five points up and 15 points up and most of them had him you know upper single digits to maybe 10 percent uh margin between him and kamala but uh he increased that even more and that's obviously been a part of the discussion following this whole election we'll get into some of that later, specifically South Texas, how things went there, but he made gains. And a lot of it has to do with finding yet another new constituency and demographic to pull into the Republican party. He did that in 2016, where he got all these people,

especially in the Rust Belt, who had been sitting on the sidelines for years, to all of a sudden come to the polls and cast their ballot, if for nobody else than for Donald Trump. And that was a big reason why he won. And a lot of those people have stayed. There have been some losses especially

among suburban women over the years for trump but um even they started coming back at least married ones especially um i believe correct me if i'm wrong mac but i think he did win the the white female vote um or maybe it was just the female vote generally i don't know i think let me let me see what i can find um but even if he didn't he made it a lot closer than it he lost it in 2020 so he made gains there and then he made gains with hispanics especially hispanic men so obviously that's a... White women voted for Trump. Okay. Yeah. I thought I read that correctly.

So thank you. Yeah. So it's really a tale of two entirely different elections, the 2020 and the 2024. And obviously, you know, what was a big theme going on at the time of the 2020 election? COVID. And it's hard to divorce that in the chaos, the destabilization that occurred. It's hard to divorce that from the election result. So, you know, obviously Democrats found themselves on the opposite end of that sphere this time around with an unpopular president, with, you know, problems happening,

especially at the Southern border, but also economically still. So, uh, some of it was just broader macroeconomic and macro societal factors, but there was also the 10 pound L the, uh, 10 ton elephant in the room of Donald Trump.

That, um, you know, it, it, it's going to be interesting to see if Republicans can replicate this down the road with someone who isn't Donald Trump. Is this a permanent shift or is this something we just saw this cycle because of a lot of factors

coming into play and coalescing at the same time, right? That's the question. And when you have folks like Bernie Sanders coming out and reprimanding the Democratic Party and saying, hey, we've lost the working class. Those are supposed to be our people. You know that there's either like a huge monumental shift that's happening in partisan politics in the United States or that this is a one off. Like there's something. Yeah. We have so much to learn. Can I butt in and add the thing I've said multiple times now since the election and before? What you were talking about there is the shift of the parties. The Republican Party used to be the ideological party. The Democratic Party used to be the coalitional party. And we're seeing that those polls flip. It's not all the way there yet, but it is happening. And I think that's pretty clear in the way and the Democrats, at least increasingly so among,

you know, becoming closer to the elite party, party of the coasts. It's that's something Democrats are going to have to contend with and figure out a way to counteract that. But until then, Republicans now, have the upper hand. And of course, you have, you know, many conservatives decrying the big tent approach still and saying, hey, this dilutes what we stand for as a party. So you have that to contend with, too. But are they bummed that they won in this fashion? And with 312 electoral votes and the margins that they saw, everyone's, you know, on the Republican side, everyone's very excited. And after that win, I think that there's a lot of conversation to be had about how obviously the Democratic Party moves forward, but also how the Republican Party moves

forward in that way. And whether they continue that approach of saying, yes, we're going to be, you know, buddy-buddy with the unions that historically has not been the case for decades now, you know, even just in terms of social issues, maybe taking a step back on some more ardent stances on those things. There's a lot to contend with for the Republicans as well in determining their identity as a party. You know, what do they believe in anymore? Do they believe in the same things? I mean, we're seeing drastic shifts in policy beliefs since the, you know, the pre-Trump party. And they haven't really figured out what it is they all believe in, what it is their party stands for yet.

And they're, you know, they're competing ideas within the Republican factions, trying to hammer that out, hash it out. um they haven't done that fully so yet absolutely um when it comes to polling brad i think that was i mean there's a lot of conversation happening surrounding polling right now about its efficacy accuracy what kind of approach needs to be taken in future elections to ensure that more accurate results are given both to campaigns and to voters ahead of an election, especially one that's a presidential election. But what did you see ahead of the election? How did those turn out after the results were tallied? So let me start off by saying polling is very difficult to do. And it's very difficult to do well, especially these days, because it is increasingly hard to figure out who exactly counts as a likely voter, which is what most of these polls are indexed on.

You know, you have early on, you see polls done generally with among registered voters. But it only matters if you're registered to vote if you then go vote. So when you're trying to gauge the electorate, someone who's registered but doesn't vote in this industry based on whether your ability to accurately essentially guess what and who is a likely voter. So let me say that off off the top. And I'll add quickly, Brad, to that, that there's also the conversation surrounding, okay, the home phone is non-existent at this point. Cell phones are really how people are contacted. Social media and that sort of data drives so much of what campaigns do anyways now, that how do we actually navigate who's engaging with political content and target those folks? And maybe not so much

the home phone anymore, right? And of course, cell phones are a big part of the polling equation already. But that conversation is certainly being had. You don't have a home phone at the center of someone's house where somebody in that household can pick it up and answer. It's an entirely different culture in that regard too. And getting somebody to answer a poll is hard in and of itself, right? So there are a lot of conversations about even just the methodology of polling. Is this the best way to gauge voters, period? Well, and they're still trying to figure out the right mix of live calling, texts, and digital surveys for these polls. So it's, you know, the industry itself is trying to figure

out since the advent of these and popularization of these new technological mediums, how the heck do we account for that in our tried and true methods of getting an accurate sample size, right? So I don't envy having to do that, but you know, they're in the business for a reason. And as we'll see, you know, there are some that hit the nail almost on the head and there are others that did not. So, um, yeah, so I pulled the, the late at the October results for the Texas Senate race between Ted Cruz and Colin Allred and compared that to the margin. So Ted Cruz defeated Colin Allred by 8.6%.

And so the last round of polls that I've found, uh, for, for the Senate for this Texas Senate race. I'll run through them. So Morning Consult had Cruz plus three. New York Times-Siena had Cruz plus four. Rasmussen, that's notably a right-of-center polling firm, had Cruz plus four. The Hill-Emerson had Cruz plus four. The Hill Emerson had Cruz plus one. Marist had Cruz plus five. The University of Houston had Cruz plus four. And the winner winner chicken dinner of this batch was the University of Texas. Texas Politics Project had Cruz plus seven. They were the closest within the margin of error to the outcome.

So remind folks again the the outcome 8.6. So they were 1.6% off what they projected it at in mid October. So, um, you know, obviously a poll is a snapshot in, in time and moods change, right? You know, October surprises can change a lot. It can make a poll that was just released a day ago totally irrelevant. But I don't think there was such, there wasn't October surprise really this time around. Nothing massive, right? So how people felt in mid-October is about how they felt probably on election day, right? And then also you add the

fact that people are voting, at least in Texas and in many other states, two weeks before the election is held, right? So all of that's very hard to quantify and accommodate for in a poll, but the University of Texas, Jim Henson and Josh Blank over there at the Texas Politics Project seem to do a really good job. And, you know, I will add one other thing on this, that the Cruz camp undershot the University of Texas. They had it at at least Cruz plus six in the days leading up to the election. And, you know, they also, of course, in that they had an undecided. And so one of the reasons that Cruz won by the amount that he did was the undecideds broke for him at a rate that most pollsters did not think would happen. So I heard that I heard one review or a kind of quip about what what we saw happen and why Cruz and Trump exceeded

where a lot of people thought they would be. In these elections, and it may just be applicable to Texas, but in these elections, Republican voters come home while Democratic voters stay home. And we might talk about the early vote stuff later, or maybe we'll talk about it now, but it was clear that Democrats were undershooting their 2020 levels. vote total based on, and this is based on primary history, some demographic estimates, projections, things like that, but mostly primary history. Republicans had a model ballot that was

six to seven points better than the 2020 early vote ballot. So that just means like on balance, Republicans were doing six to 7% better than they were in 20. And that's a massive increase. That's a massive deficit for Democrats who are already a minority in the state. So yeah. I will say too, that obviously it's notable, too, that Cruz having, you know, his camp having even less of a win margin in their polling than UT is notable because when, you know, it's easy to decry internal polling from campaigns. Absolutely. And they should be looked at with a critical eye. But at the same time, look at the pollster. Look at their history. That's really what you want to look at, right? That's interesting in and of itself. But who the pollster is is typically much more indicative of the result or the potential accuracy of a poll as opposed to which camp it's coming from. Yeah.

For example, we saw one poll put out in 2022 in the Republican primary for governor that had Alan West ahead of Greg Abbott. Everyone knew that was BS. Um, and I forgot the guy's name who put that poll out, but he was, he's infamous for putting out trash polls. Um,

so different people have different reputations, some quite good, some quite bad. And it generally depends. But, you know, if you can get yourself a hold of an internal poll, especially on a formidable, from a formidable campaign, I would say Allred was a formidable outfit of a campaign. It wasn't a joke of a candidate. If you got internal polling from them, you should take it seriously. I never did get an internal poll from them. I did hear some internal polling from the Cruz camp.

But most of these, especially these inside guys that are actually working for the firms or for the campaigns, they have a pretty good track record usually. Otherwise, they wouldn't be making any money except from candidates that have zero shot whatsoever. Yeah. Anyway, notable. Brad, when you were looking ahead of election day at polling and then you also, you know, the other data point that we have, which is kind of a nebulous data point without seeing any results actually come in in, it's just early voting data. It's just who's going to the polls, not how they're voting, but who's going to the polls. When you look back, and basically that just means this person has Republican voting history or this person has Democratic voting history.

This person is all over the map, right? You have data as to what party this voter who went to the polls identifies most with or how often they voted in certain elections. When you look back at the polling in Texas versus the early voting numbers and kind of see, okay, there were a lot of Republicans going to the polls this cycle. That was the story when we had data coming in from different folks, from data guys in the political scene here in Texas. That was the stories. Republicans are going to the polls in droves. And typically, Democrats are the ones that go to the polls early, right? That's their MO. That's what they impress upon their voters. And typically,

that's what happens. And we saw Republicans doing that this cycle. Walk me through that. It was a concerted effort from the very top, from the Trump campaign, who advised voters in 20 not to vote early at all, whether it was mail ballot or in person, because they wanted to save everything for election day. Well, they decided to change that strategy up and it worked pretty well for them and Republicans up and down the ballot and throughout every level of these political operations pushed hard to get their voters to turn out and vote early in person. And the thinking strategy in that is you don't want to leave up your your strongest base of support to, you know, the winds of something crazy happening on Election Day, whether it's, you know, politics or campaign operatives hate when it rains on election day. Because it makes people, those who are not hardcore, it makes them question whether they're going to go vote. And if you know you have someone's support, but they're not necessarily a super disciplined voter, any anomaly like that can really throw into question whether they turn out in the first place. So by advising them to vote early, you allow them, you increase the chances that you can just bank their vote because they can vote here in Texas over two weeks.

Right. Democrats did still win the mail ballot. And, you know, I think that's a that's not just a holdover from 2020. I think that was probably the case before then, too. But obviously in 2020, you had a lot of fear about COVID and they won on balance across the state. Republicans won election day and early vote in person. Democrats won mail ballots. So think trump won by it was 14 points but the um are you doing math i am 1.5 million votes he won by i why was that funny brad because i can't do math on my top of my head like that on camera. I look to walk through basically just the top races that were the most interesting here in Texas. We have two congressionals to spotlight, one Senate race, state Senate race that I think a lot of folks are very familiar with. And then also just talk the House. The dynamics changed a little bit in the Texas House, which is fascinating. But Brad, let's talk about the congressional. Let's do 28 and 34. So these are two that we should be watching for Republicans to try and flip next cycle. Obviously, who knows if the environment is going to be close to the same as where it is now or if it'll be closer to 2018 the middle, I think. But 28, Henry Cuellar barely won.

And that was against not much of a formidable candidate at all in Jay Furman, who, from my understanding, didn't have many ties to the district. But he came in and he was, I think he was in the Navy. And so that was kind of the basis from which he launched this campaign. And he made it really close. It was super close. And we didn't expect it, although I was told before we went into this to watch for that. And I think Trump won Webb County, which is a big district, a big county in the district. And that pushed Furman pretty far up. He lost by

less than five points. So to push Henry Cuellar, Democrat who had been in the district for so long that far, especially with how little money Furman raised. Now, Cuellar also raised very little money. It was just. But also Cuellar has a lot of other things hanging over his head right now. Um, so there's a lot going on for Cuellar. Yeah. The NRCC though, they didn't even come in for this at all. Despite Cuellar being kind of a wounded

duck on this. You know, his seat was ripe for the taking. Republicans, especially national Republicans, just weren't happy with Furman for whatever reason. And so they didn't come in. You get a more formidable candidate next time around, or maybe that's Furman. Maybe he spends the next two years really readying for this we could see something there then you have Texas 34 Vicente Gonzalez narrowly beat Myra Flores he beat her by eight points in 22 this time he beat her by less than three points. So, hey, maybe she comes back for another round in 2026. That's certainly possible. She's got not only the name ID at this point, she's got the National Republican backing.

So that's another one to watch. That's on the coastline and in the Rio Grande Valley. Yeah, which is an area that we'll get to very soon because it shifted significantly for Republicans. I think one of the big stories of the night was Senate District 27. Obviously, this was a race that Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick had a significant interest in, both financially and otherwise, in that how the Senate operates, you know, the Lieutenant Governor is the head of the Senate, he operates the Senate, the President of the Senate. And with that extra Republican, this was, you know, the only Senate seat this cycle with any hope of flipping in either direction. This could have, this really was an opportunity for the Lieutenant Governor to shore up support

so that if a Republican strays off of something that the lieutenant governor wants to see passed there is margin for that right um and watching adam and iosa bring it home over morgan la mantia was a very fascinating race now of course this was a rematch but la mantia comes from a very wealthy family of beer distributors here in Texas that was able to put significant money into this campaign, millions and millions of dollars, even up to the last minute. And Hinojosa wasn't even a fundraising chump either, but La Montilla's advantage certainly in that aspect was apparent in the fundraising side of everything. So watching that come home, I mean,

that's a big win for the Lieutenant Governor. That means that there's 20 Republicans in the Senate now and 11 Democrats. And that's a big deal, just even in terms of the supermajority and how the Senate operates and brings bills to the floor. So we'll be excited to see what that means for the Senate this legislative session and what this means in terms of how Dan Patrick operates. I don't think it will change too much, but it does give him that margin when there's something he wants passed that may alienate a Republican or two on whatever issue it might be. It was very interesting to watch. Brad, anything to add on SD27? The only other thing I'll add is this is one race where you could reasonably suggest that the third party candidate cost the Democrat. Oh my gosh, yes.

The race. And there was, what, about 3,000 votes between Hinojosa and La Montilla. And the Green Party candidate, Robin Vargas, polled almost 6,000. When I looked on shortly or later on election night it was 5600 so that's increased she got uh 5 945 votes or i i think that's a she i guess it could be a he i don't know um but yeah i mean that that doesn't happen very often you hear a lot of fretting about third party voters costing an election we heard that with j with Jill Stein at the presidential level, costing Kamala the race. Obviously, the margin was so large that you can't make that case at all. But here, you can make it. And we don't know for

sure. Obviously, you'll never know which way those votes would have broken, whether they would have voted for LaMantia or whether they would have stayed home. But it was almost double the margin. And yeah, there's a lot of, I'm sure there's a lot of sour grapes about that. And don't you also think that it's a fair assessment to say that if it was a Libertarian candidate, it could be a little bit more iffy on which party those voters could potentially align with. But being that this is a Green Party candidate, the likelihood that a lot of these voters, if forced to choose between a Republican and a Democrat, would likely choose the Democrat. Absolutely. Absolutely. You know, the only other case that I can remember at the state level that you could reasonably make this assumption was, uh, HD 47 in 2020, uh,

Justin Barry, the Republican narrowly, narrowly lost. It was like 1200 votes. If I remember correctly, lost to Vicki Goodwin, the Democrat. And,

um, keep in mind, this is right before redistricting. And so, you know, if Barry had pulled that off, that would have made a very interesting decision for the Republicans redrawing this district because they'd want to keep it, right? Instead, they made it bluer. They just basically gave Goodwin the seat, said,

we're not going to try anymore. But that one, the Libertarian got, I think 3000 votes. So it is certainly possible that that costs bury the election. And, uh, yeah, it, it might set up some fights in the state legislature. There have been fights about the way third parties are governed, the way their elections are run um you know they they are done um they're nominated through conventions not through primaries you know there's talks about there's been an attempt by republicans for years to increase the filing fee for these third parties especially libertarians because they all know it puts them at some disadvantage. None of them want this, these third parties running. And so they, through legislation, try often to head that off the pass in one form or another. And it inevitably leads to lawsuits. And we've seen multiple of those over the last few years, trying to kick third party candidates off the ballot for whatever, you know, paperwork error that was made or something like that. So I think this, you know, you just might see more of it now.

Yeah, certainly. And again, 3,000 votes in a House district is even more significant than 5,000 votes in the Senate race when you consider the size of the district, right? But 5,000 votes still, like to your point, the margin is, it's certainly, there's a lot to be said about the third party candidate in this race for Senate District 27. We'll quickly, our last point here before we zoom in, the House. Brad talked to us about the dynamic in the Texas House and how that changed or shifted after this election. Obviously, we talk all the time, the primary is typically where these decisions are made about who is the eventual nominee and eventual representative of that district, just because of how Texas is redistricted, right? How these districts are aligned, and there's not a ton of swing districts here in the state.

But walk us through what we did find out after the election. Yeah, there are about, what would you say 10 to 15 maybe actual up for grabs districts and even most of those significantly favor one side or the other you know there's only what maybe two actual toss-up districts and are you talking about in which in which congressional house senate legislature right so you're saying 10 to 15 house seats yeah that you Are you talking about in which congressional, house, senate, legislature? Well, we're talking about the state house, right? So you're saying 10 to 15 house seats that you would say. Yeah.

I think that's probably pretty close. And of those, there's only two that are actually toss-ups. You know, HD 118 is one. And then after this election, I'd say 74 along the border. Toss-ups meaning probably an even split. And we go by our TPI at the Texan, which is Texas Partisan Index, kind of shows how a district leans politically just based on voting trends in that district for the past several election cycles. That's what we're referring to. Caroline Harris-Davila's seat, Republican in Williamson County, that is not an easy district to win for the Republican, but the partisan breakdown is like R-54 or R-55. It'll probably

increase now, probably R-56, but it's not a shoo-in, but it's also favorable to the Republican. John Lujan's district in Bexar County, HD 119, is a true even split, at least for now. We'll see with these results how they affect the TPI, but overall, you know, there's not, like you were saying, there's not a lot of battlegrounds here after redistricting. And so that caused a lot of money to be pumped into these small number of districts. And ultimately, Republicans gained two. They're now going to be at 88 seats in the Texas House when they reconvene next cycle or next session. Out of 150. Out of 150.

That's compared to 62 House Democrats so even though it wasn't a wave like Democrats had in 2018 and Republicans had what back in

2010 when they gained a ton whenever that was they flipped a lot whenever that was they they flipped a lot um maybe that was earlier i think it was actually the aughts now that i'm thinking about it but regardless um i want to say 2008 2008 in the well when barack obama was on the ballot no you're right. Must have been 2006. Yeah. But then the Tea Party wave to contend with too. After that. Way after that. Yeah.

I just had this in a fourth reading. Oh, there we go. Okay. Yeah. So 2011 was the massive gain. So the 2010 election, they jumped from 76. Oh, so you're right. 76 Republicans to just over 100.

So yeah, a really big shift there. Obviously, they didn't gain that. So, you know, I guess Democrats can can hang their hat there that they didn't, you know, they didn't lose more in this in this environment. But overall, you know, still losing two seats is not good. They didn't gain any grounds. And a big part of this election was setting up the 2026 election, setting up the justification to have all this national money pumped in. Now they might get it anyway.

Who knows? But it hurts their case that not only did they lose the state again and lost seats in the House and the Senate, but they also lost by larger margins in these statewide races than they did in 20. So it's just got to be very disheartening for Democrats, especially who have been working in the state to try and make gains for this just to fall apart in that regard. You know, the bet is for Democrats that the environment in 26 is like what it was in 2018 where they can make more gains. But right now it's seeming like 18 was just an anomaly. Yeah. It's going to be very interesting to see how much money is spent here next

cycle on the democratic side. I'm very interested to see how that all happens. And there's a lot of partisan shifting, even in terms of how the Democrats are going to approach. We saw, you know, the Texas Democrat chair, Gov. Anahosa, you know, resign too, and step down. And there's a lot of shifting and interesting dynamics at play in Texas and beyond, but we'll keep an eye on that for sure. Let's go to a little bit more of a granular conversation here. When we look at the state itself, Kamala only won 12 counties out of 254 counties in Texas. Now it may seem like,

okay, no, of course, Texas is a red state. That's unsurprising when you factor in suburban urban areas. No, this is this was a very different result than we've seen in previous cycles. And I think where a lot of folks' attention turned to was South Texas. You can look at, and we'll get into that very specifically, but in terms of the border counties, the shift was astronomical. It's not an exaggeration to say. And even just in terms of comparing, you know, the red versus blue map, the eye, you know, if you eyeball previous elections, which we can, I'll pull this up. This was actually a very cool tool that the Tribune put out, but you can see this on their website. But looking back at previous cycles and seeing,

wow, the entire border used to be just this blue, just this blue line right along the border of all these counties. And it kind of shifted a little bit more red in 2000, 2004, remained pretty consistent 2008, 2012, 2016, with about 13 to 14 border counties going blue and about five or four going red. And then 2020 is when we saw that really significant shift where people started paying more attention to South Texas, specifically Republicans with money started paying more attention to South Texas. In 2020, 11 border counties went to the Democrats and seven went to the Republicans. But even the margins in some of those counties that still went blue were very notable. This cycle, it flipped on its head. 14 counties along the border

went to Republicans and four went to the Democrats. Seriously, an unbelievable result in a lot of ways. And I think it was expected to see gains in South Texas for Republicans, but not by this much. This was significant. And literally the border counties flipped entirely to Republicans in that way, which is very fascinating. But we'll zoom in on that and talk a little bit more. Brad, do you want to talk about those 11 border counties? Yeah, I'll add first that compare Kamala's 12 counties that she won across the state in this election. Biden won 22 four years ago. So that's a huge loss. Trump also flipped back Tarrant County and Williamson County.

On the border ones, obviously, what qualifies as a border county, right? Right. You have 11 out of 13 here, and the Trib has a few more added in. But we're going to go with 13 for our count. And I just went with the ones literally on the border. you know uh let's see let's see uh you know jim hogg that's going to be counted generally as a border county it's one away but it is not literally on the border um so for my count i just went literally the ones on the border. Trump won all but two. The two that he lost were El Paso, which shifted 10 points.

Trump's margin or Trump's vote share increased 10 points from 2020 to 2024. In El Paso. Yep. El Paso. Yep. 2024 in in el paso yep el paso yep and then presidio county which went from 32.5 percent trump's uh vote total to 34 so a much smaller shift there um and still he's not close to winning that county, but everything else, uh, Trump won and some of them, he won Webb County. We mentioned that he went from, he pulled in 50.7% of that vote this year. And that was an increase of 12.8% from 2020, just a massive, massive shift. Um, the largest shift came in

Maverick County that went from 44.8 in 2020 to 50, 59% in 2024. So I mean, it's obvious what happened. Trump drove a massive shift of South Texas Hispanics, particularly men, to at least pull the lever for him. Now, the question is, how many consider themselves Republicans? I don't think that's as straightforward. It is, you know, just look at Ted Cruz and he lost one, two, three, four, five, five border counties as I'm counting it and more counties in that area of South Texas along the border. So Texas Hispanics in South Texas, you know, they're increasingly friendly to the Republican party, but I wouldn't count them as Republicans yet. Um, you know, a lot of the Democrats won down ballot. Uh, we talked about the congressionals, but don't even just look at congressionals, look at local races, you know?

So, uh, Republicans still have work to do there, but they're, they're really starting to see the fruits of their labor down in South Texas. And we saw the Trump campaign and the RNC do a lot of put a lot of manpower down in South Texas in 2020. That wasn't there this time because all their focus were on the handful of swing states that were going to decide this thing. But, you know, other groups have kind of filled the void. You know, Kat Parks has a former RPT vice chair, has an organization that's been doing Hispanic outreach. You know, campaigns themselves are doing a lot of that. Republicans that are in that area, Jenny Lopez spent a ton of money. You know, I'm sure that paid off to some degree. Obviously, she won her seat, but by pretty good margin. But, you know, it pays dividends elsewhere.

There's a ripple effect. So, you know, this isn't going to stop. And Republicans feel like if they can get the South Texas, South Texas to start voting like the rest of rural Texas, they're going to have a massive barrier wall against any gains Democrats may make in the suburbs. And Democrats made a ton of gains in 18 in the suburbs. They did not, some of those were lost this time around. Like I mentioned, Williamson County, Trump won that back. So, although Ted Cruz did lose it.

So it's more complicated than just did it go red or did it not? But there are gains happening quite obviously. And I will say too that even just, you know, kind of going to bat here a little bit for the cruise narrative it is notable too that i because i i agree that these voters aren't it's too early to consider them diehard republican voters but cruise still saw even though and it was expected that there would be a gap between what what trump was able to bring home in terms of margin and what cruise was able to bring home in terms of margin and what Cruz was able to bring home. That was expected. That was polled. That was not a surprise. So to be fair,

that is worth considering. And we'll go into this a little bit in specifically in the Rio Grande Valley and talk through this. But I mean, another big story from election night was that Cruz won Hispanics this time around. Cruz, who's largely considered a very unpopular statewide elected official in Texas. And this is a 35-point swing from the last time he was on the ballot in 2018. Now, granted, that's a six-year period where a lot has happened demographically in Texas and politically in Texas. So there's been a lot of shift happening since the last time Cruz was on the ballot for these folks. But it is absolutely notable. Last time in 2018, he lost Hispanics by 29 points, 29 points, and he won them by six this time. Again, a 35 point spread. And that's certainly worth considering and talking through.

And, you know, specifically, too, that Trump won a lot of these counties Cruz still won some so there's there still were gains for Cruz in that way in South Texas and like I look we keep talking about the margins keep getting closer and closer in those areas where Republicans did not see a win on election night so I want to quickly go to the Rio Grande Valley and talk through that so four counties are kind of considered the Rio Grande Valley, Cameron County, Hidalgo County, Starr County, and Willisee County. In Cameron County, in 2024, this cycle, Trump won 52.5%, Harris got 46.7%. Okay, in 2020, Trump got 43%. That's about a 10 point shift in four years in Cameron County. This time, when Cruz got 52 percent, or excuse me, when Trump got 52 percent, Cruz got 46. Okay, so Allred did

win that, did win that county. In Hidalgo County, Trump got 51 percent, Harris got 48. In 2020, Trump got 41. That is a 10-point shift. Again, about a 10-point shift that we're seeing here. When this cycle, Trump got 51% to Cruz's 45.5. Okay, so about five and a half points behind Trump in Hidalgo County for Cruz. Starr County, Trump got 57.7%. It's the biggest margin for one of the Rio Grande Valley counties. Harris got 41.8%. That again, that's an 11 point shift. Okay, so we're seeing double digit shifts in these counties for Trump at the top of the ticket. And then Cruz got 49.9%, already got 47.6%. So in Starr County, we see Cruz coming out on top there.

In Willisee County, Trump got 51.3%. Harris at 48. And that's a seven point shift from Trump's 44% in 2020. Cruz was about, let me do my math here quickly, about seven and a half points behind, eight and a half points behind Trump with 43.7%. So really, really notable. And we're still talking about some wins for Cruz in South Texas. We're still talking about some wins for other Republicans in South Texas. Those congressional seats we were talking about are South Texas congressional seats where

Republicans got closer, are getting closer and closer to unseating incumbent longtime Democrats in those areas. So, you know, we have a lot to consider. There's a lot still at play. How will these voters vote when Trump is not on the ballot? That's the big question. But we're still seeing significant gains for Republicans in these areas. I just got texted some numbers by House house district in Cameron and Hidalgo County about the Trump margin. So I'll run through these. HG35, Oscar Longoria's seat, Trump won by 6.8%. Wow. Sergio Munoz's district, HG36, Trump won by 5.8.

Jenny Lopez in HG37, Trump won by 11%. That bodes well. Can you tell the party affiliation of these reps as you go through? Oh, yeah. Yeah. Longoria is a Democrat. The first one I read off. The second one, Munoz, also a Democrat.

Lopez, Republican. HG38, Aaron Gomez. Harris won by 0.7 points. HD39. Gámez is a Democrat. The next one, HD39. Armando Martínez, also a Democrat. Trump won by 2.5.

Let's see. Canales, at least as of this, Canales is a Democrat and HD40. um, let's see. Canalis, at least as of this canal is a Democrat and HG 40. Trump was at even, uh, it was, it was split. It looks like Trump won by 21 votes.

That's that may shift. Um, if more, more votes come in, um, and then HG 41, Gara, Bobby Gara, also Democrat Trump won by 1.7. Add this to, uh that doesn't bode well for next time for her getting... Okay, it was Trump won 51-48 in that seat. And then you have Richard Pena Raymond, another Democrat, Laredo.

His district went from Biden plus 22 to Trump plus 0.5. So that gives you an idea if Democrats, not Democrats, Republicans are going to try and expand the map in the House, who they're going to target. Those are some districts. It also might be some districts, Richard Pena Raymond comes to mind, that you might see at least more speculation about flipping parties. We saw Ryan Guillen do that. You might see that with some of these other ones. Not all of them, and I'm sure most of them will not. If any of them, in all likelihood, none of them flip parties, but with those numbers, you're going to start seeing more

consideration and speculation of it. And at the very least, like you're saying conversation, right. Um, and this is a trend we've seen with largely South Texas officials. I think the only one I'm thinking of, that's not a South Texas official who has switched from Democrat to Republican is Eric Johnson, mayor in Dallas. That's the only one i'm thinking of that's not a south texas official who has switched from democrat republic is eric johnson mayor in dallas that's the only one i can think of right now sean perry who's not from that area but um yeah she lost a different kind of situation yeah yeah i don't really count that but still yeah she still did still did switch parties to your point um and it's super notable but it is different circumstances without the electoral position you know at play um and i will say like yes of course we're still the jury's still out in terms of republican voters long term and how south texas um solidifies and kind of um shores up in the long

run but again we're talking about margins for crews on the state level that were way above what polls were showing. Right. Again, for somebody who is largely considered the vulnerable one on the statewide slate. So I don't think this is anything that Republicans should not be encouraged by. This is a very encouraging cycle for Republicans nationwide. But especially, you know, when you look at Texas, it's just wild to look at these numbers. And when you're talking double digit shifts in these South Texas seats, it's just wild. Yeah. And, you know, Trump also made gains in each of the five big counties, Dallas, Bayer, Harris, Travis, Tarrant. And we saw that trend across the country, right? I mean, one of the most interesting tweets from election night

were the vote breakdowns and the margins in the New York boroughs. It was wild. And Trump making inroads there in these very progressive pockets of the country. Yeah. And then I pulled together the list of the excerpts of these big five counties 24 24 counties some are solid red some of them most of them in this it looks like are pretty solid red but others are not you know Fort Bend what went from 44% Trump to 48% Trump. So there's not a lot of good news

to look at for Democrats right now. But a lot of this has to do with the overarching environment and factors that Texas Democrats can do nothing about, really. And it might break their way next time, those overarching factors, but maybe they don't. And you've already seen a lot of fallout within the Democratic Party here and nationally, but especially here with Gilberto Hinojosa getting ousted as the Texas Democratic Party chair. Who knows if that actually causes a change in tact in messaging by

the party. He seemed to think that they needed to, to some degree. But who knows what happens there? Do they continue going left, or do they try and veer back to the middle? Is there a mix? Do they pick and choose issues to do that on? A lot of questions up in the air. And that is where we keep asking how much money will Democrats spend in Texas next cycle? Is this

a state that they're just going to say, forget this, we're going to focus on the Arizonans and the Pennsylvanias of it all? Or are we going to be focusing still on Texas because there still is ground to be made up? And I think, again, the double digit margins at the top of the ticket really do not bode well for an effort. But who knows who the candidate will be next cycle? Who knows, you know, in four years, who will be at the top of the ticket? Of course, everyone can take their guesses. But a lot of time, there's a lot of time between now and then. And I think it's fair to say that there are significant inroads that have been made by Republicans. Texas is a very solidly Republican state, but I think Democrats will look at maybe not statewide necessarily in the same way. But if they can put up a strong statewide candidate in a race, as they typically do in these cycles, an Allred, a Beto, whoever it is,

and however strong you consider them to be, they in one way or another are able to bring folks to the polls, and it helps down-ballot candidates to have these folks at the top of the ticket spending money to get their solidly blue supporters out there, especially in areas that could be swing districts, that are swing districts for the state legislature. So there's a lot of strategy at play. I think that Democrats can either say, yeah, we're just going to keep running

folks in Texas to keep this narrative up or to ensure that we can kind of maybe retake some state legislative seats that really just came down to a strong Trump wave this cycle. Or will they say, you know what, screw it. Y'all are on your own. Figure it out. We have enough fronts to wage war on. And we're going to peace out from Texas in terms of the hundreds of millions of dollars in spend that we've that we've been seen in in uh recent cycles agreed well put thanks brad wow

i appreciate the uh actually that was terrible I don't know why we just spent an hour talking about that but hey yeah truly terrible um okay Bradley is there anything else that you want to wax eloquence about not on that do we want to talk speakers race at all or do we want to put that off for another pod I don't know there's so much there we can do a quick why don't you just do a quick update on where we're at and then we can uh let folks get back to their their regularly scheduled programming well if you want at least who knows if things change between now and this publishing but if you want the most up-to-date articles we have on uh on where things are i have two pieces one my newsletter from not last week, but the week before,

that details the various arguments being made behind the scenes for and against each candidate, and I run through them each. And then there's just an overview of where this race is, and it's really just up in the air. A lot's going to depend on what happens in the December 7th GOP caucus meeting. They will meet at the Capitol in a back room to hash out who they want to be their speaker nominee. There's a lot of competing factors here. How much do our members, how much do they want to stick to the caucus bylaw of voting on the floor for the endorsed speaker candidate? How much, how,

how many of those, you know, put stock in the argument that, well, these bylaws have been violated constantly anyway. So why should I hold myself to this? If nobody else is, if they're not being enforced, you know, that's being talked about. Another thing on the primary front is next elect next cycle going to be anything like this cycle. And I think there's a very strong argument, particularly if they get school choice across the finish line, that it is not going to be like it was this time, because you will not have the Abbott cash cow just dumping millions, 10 million or whatever it was into these races against incumbents. Add to that fact that Trump will be in the White House. And so Republicans will generally be pretty happy and not pissed off to go oust anyone that is, um, that they deem to be, you know, out of step, um, and, and driving a lot more voters to the polls. Generally, it also will be a midterm. Does that cause, uh, something like in 20, uh, 2018 where there's just a lot more Democratic enthusiasm.

So there's a lot up in the air on this primary. How much each of those different points is persuasive is going to vary based on which member you're talking to. They're all going to have different calculus on this. Then you have the fact that, you know, do members want another gridlock session or at least another contentious session between the two chambers? Do they want to reelect Phelan and have he and Lieutenant Governor just throw haymakers at each other day after day, which will probably, you know, inevitably lead to a lot of special sessions. And that's something everyone wants to avoid. Nobody wants to be here for another multi special session, uh, legislature. And it's, you know, this is a part-time deal gig, 140 days every two years is guaranteed in this

job description. Special sessions are part of it, but it is not a guaranteed thing but it has become that the last two cycles so do they want to just go a different way to try and mend defenses and extend an olive branch and not be an open political warfare all session um you know then there's a question of is this going to happen regardless i don't't know. So I recommend look at the newsletter and then the other piece. And if this interests you, ultimately the number that matters more than anything else is 76. You've got obviously Dade Phelan in the race. You've got David Cook, who's a reformed candidate, Republican. Then you've got two Democrats.

You've got Ana Maria Ramos, who's been in it for a while. Then you've got John Bryan, who just jumped in, who I think is the more interesting candidate here. He's a wily old fox. And he knows what he's doing. He's going to be able to maneuver something. Is he just trying to

leverage his speakership candidacy into a nice, cushy committee appointment with him i would doubt it's that simple i think he's got a point to prove and in the democratic caucus there is a lot of um there's a lot of displeasure with a few a certain few members of the democratic caucus getting committee chairmanships and then everyone else or at least most of the members of the Democratic caucus getting committee chairmanships, and then everyone else, or at least most of the rest of the caucus, not getting much of anything, yet still being expected to play ball.

There's a growing concern or contingency in the Democratic Party, Democratic caucus that just wants to do what the hard right has done in the Republican caucus, just throw bombs. And, you know, maybe you see that more. It's certainly possible. But as with every speaker's race, this thing is inside baseball. There's going to be a lot of, there already is a lot of cage rattling from the outside and that may work for some members. It also may hurt them with some members. And I can tell you right now it is hurting them. It is hurting David Cook with some members because the defend Texas Liberty

faction, which is coming off of a pretty successful primary. You know, a lot of it was riding the coattails of Abbott, but not all of it. They got some big wins. They're feeling like they're in a good position to force

the issue on some things. It's hard to deny that. Their number went from four to, let's say, 20. It'll vary at time and based on the issue but you know they've got about 20 ish members who are in their camp broadly speaking so that's a that's a lot larger of a contingency that now whoever is house leader the house speaker especially if it's feeling it's

going to have to deal with um but ultimately this is inside baseball and it's going to be decided there. Members are going to have to convince other members. I don't think this outside pressure playbook is going to have the effect that some of them think, and it may backfire to some degree, particularly if members start believing that one part of the primary situation I said that if Greg Abbott's not a factor, it's not the same primary as 2024. It's just not. But overall, this thing is way up in the air. Nobody has announced a list of 76, least 76 and i don't think anyone will until after the the caucus vote and we see which way that goes felon's uh move here is to prevent anyone from getting the caucus vote david cook obviously wants to get the caucus vote but

can he get the extra what is it eight i think votes right now uh roughly to get that to get 53 and win the caucus endorsement outright um it's all a big question and does a does a third candidate jump in that's being talked about quite a bit third republican i should say and then add to that what do the democrats do? They line up behind Phelan. This thing is just, it's not over. And hopefully, I'm saying this and it doesn't, somebody doesn't release a list of 76 by the time this goes out. And everything I just said is moot and looks stupid. But I don't think that'll happen because everyone is in a holding pattern right now until we see what happens on december 7th a date which will live in infamy for a different reason but not quite as significant i was going to say yeah you you tread the line there a little bit

with the uh the blasphemy but we'll take it as long as you clarify there you go i clarified there you go well bradley thank you for joining me on the pod i'm glad we didn't uh break out into a virtual fistfight we might have to do that when we're back in person we should just do that that wouldn't be am i mike tyson or are you mike mike tyson in this scenario and who's jake paul you're older You are older than me by three or four months. Hmm. Should. I'm young and sprightly, Brad, and don't you forget it.

What? I just did a Mike Tyson impression. You missed it. I'm really sad about it. I'll have to listen to this podcast. It was bad, but then again, I'm not a multi-time boxing champion, so I really can't make fun of it too much. Yeah,

that's very true. Well, folks on that delightfully applicable note, we appreciate you listening to this episode of smoke filled room and we'll catch you on the next episode. you