The Texan Podcast - Weekly Roundup - May 24, 2024

Episode Date: May 24, 2024

Show off your Lone Star spirit with a free "Remember the Alamo" hat with an annual subscription to The Texan: https://thetexan.news/subscribe/ The Texan’s Weekly Roundup brings you the latest news in Texas politics, breaking down the top stories of the week with our team of reporters who give you the facts so you can form your own opinion. Enjoy what you hear? Be sure to subscribe and leave a review! Got questions for the reporting team? Email [e-mail] — they just might be answered on a future podcast.This week on The Texan’s “Weekly Roundup,” the team discusses the most interesting upcoming primary runoff elections, including:For All the Marbles: GOP House Runoff Table Set With Phelan at the CenterHagenbuch, Yarbrough Face Off in Senate District 30 Republican Runoff ElectionFrazier and Holland Pushed to Runoff, Other Collin County GOP Incumbents WinIncumbent Gonzales Faces Internet Celebrity Herrera in Texas Congressional District 23 RunoffRepublicans in Texas Congressional District 28 Compete to Challenge Embattled Democrat CuellarFort Worth Texas House Seat Runoff Set Between Bean and McQueeneySchoolcraft Pushes Incumbent Kuempel to Runoff in House District 44

Yes, talk about finance stuff. Because I think Cameron threw it over to me, right? Cameron, if you want to set it up one more time, you can, just in case. Should I do this one about you? Okay. Door. Three, two, one. And Brad, I think you've been covering some of the finance stuff.

What's been going on with you know i got you covered well howdy folks it's mckenzie here with brad cameron and matt it is runoff week at the texan at the texan at the texan and it's also convention week at the texan we're headed down to san antonio tomorrow we're recording this pod in advance of what we usually record just to make sure we can not have background noise or annoying convention hall hubbub in the background. So here we are. We're talking runoffs today specifically. Yes. We have lots to get into. First of all, thank you guys for covering for me last week. I was feeling under the weather, so I appreciate you guys taking the man.

Jet lag hit you that hard, didn't it? Jet lag from Tennessee? Yes. Yeah, the hour. Or actually, no, it's the exact same time zone. You're frail, I guess. But it was great. I appreciate it, and you guys are awesome.

Matt, how are you? Are you ready for this week? You're already down in the hill country, so you're ready to go even before we are for a convention. Well, that's right. I made half of the journey last night from West Texas and made it to Kerrville, and I'll be popping over to San Antonio first thing in the morning. So we'll be ready to get underway and see what all convention has in store. Absolutely. And we'll have content coming out and all sorts of convention behind the scenes stuff.

So keep an eye out for that. But runoffs, it's next week. It's wild that we're dealing with the runoffs the week before, or excuse me, the week of convention. That they're lining up in that way. That's not typically how it goes with convention. So this is a little bit of a new territory for us here at the Texan. Any speculation why they chose the state for the convention with runoffs? It feels like two big things happening simultaneously.

It might not be the most ideal situation. Well, and two candidates in these runoffs are not going to be at convention, or they better not be at convention. They should be knocking on doors, making phone calls in district at events. Like, that should be what's happening. So they're not going to be, you know, that's a different dynamic too, where typically it's after the runoffs when the presumptive candidates, the presumptive state reps or senators or elected officials are at convention

and able to meet delegates and all that. Any speculation on that date? Reps or senators or elected officials are at convention and able to meet delegates and all that. Yeah. Any speculation on that date? I've actually seen some SREC weigh in on social media about what went on in selecting the date. And they have a lot of national timeline issues in presidential years that they have to take into consideration. They have to take into consideration other states and also strategize with RNC, because a big part of what we're doing and what state parties are doing in presidential years are selecting the national delegates to the national conventions. So that plays a big part into it. And so basically going into things, they only have a handful of dates on their own calendar to pick from. And so they were basically

saying, given all the perimeters in the options that we had to pick from, this was what we went with because they didn't have a whole lot of latitude basically. So. So you're saying there's a lot more at play than our preference in terms of content production. Yes. And even, even things like, you know, the, the, the runoffs, you know, whenever they set the date for this convention, you know, this was a long time ago and they had no idea, You know, whenever they set the date for this convention, you know, this was a long time ago and they had no idea, you know, how big or small may runoffs are. Some years we don't have

any notable runoffs to speak of. This one's kind of a strange year because we have so many legislative runoffs all over the state. You know, so that's something that they can't really plan for, you know, many, many months ago whenever they lock in and secure the date and location for these large facilities. And another thing that goes into play is there's only a handful of places in the state of Texas capable of hosting the Republican State Convention. It is the largest political gathering in the world. It dwarfs the national conventions. So you have, you know, 10,000 delegates and alternates, plus all the other people that show up for it.

And so there's only, you know, Fort Worth, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio that have facilities capable of hosting it. So, and to secure those facilities, you have to book it a year or two in advance. And then they only have a limited number of days it. So, and, and, and to secure those facilities, you have to book it a year or two in advance, and then they only have a limited number of days available. So if you can imagine what goes on and scheduling one of these events, there's, there's a lot of lenses to look through in, in picking a date. So, and then of course, when they do lock down a date, everybody's grumbling about, well, why did you pick this weekend?

I know I jumped on that bandwagon pretty fast here. Well, it's good insight, Matt. And, you know, why is the convention a big deal? Like you said, largest political gathering in the world, 10,000 delegates. It's a huge deal. Republican elected officials are there in droves. Obviously, it's a big deal in that the Republican Party is the majority party in Texas in every way. And so this is a really big deal. And like you said, presidential year adds a lot of flame to that fire. Okay, let's pivot to the runoffs here. We have a lot to talk about, a lot of races. We're going to go through top three for each of y'all, and then we'll go through honorable mentions we'll talk about some higher level themes off the bat

here brad cameron matt when we look at the primary and how it all went down obviously the runoff is an entirely different animal but in the primary we saw so many incumbents lose to challengers or be pushed to runoffs are we seeing any trends that are different in this cycle in terms of money spent advertising the races themselves? Like what are we seeing in the runoff compared to the primary? The amount of money spent in this is just wild. You know, tens of millions of dollars across all these races. And the primary, of course, was carnage for incumbent Republicans, especially, you know, the fight over the Texas House, the, of course, was carnage for incumbent Republicans especially. You know, the fight over the Texas House, the direction of that, the speaker's race, that's the headliner in this runoff.

You know, you saw the Trump endorsement have a massive effect in the primary. It turned comfortable margins into tight margins and vice versa, depending on which way the Trump endorsement went. So there are, that's not a factor in this one, in this race. Trump's not on the ballot. I mean, the Trump endorsement still plays. In the runoff, this is not a factor. I would say it's less of a factor because he is not on the ballot. Therefore, the devoted Trump voters, fewer of them than turned out in the primary will turn out in the runoff. Which is generally how it works with runoffs anyways.

Right. There are fewer races on the ballot. It's a lower profile election. Whether they're Trump voters or not, there's going to be fewer people voting. Yes. But the question is, who's the more motivated base? Is it the base that drove the anti-incumbent recoil in the primary? Or is it in some of these specifically public education, school choice-focused races?

Is it the teachers or the pub ed side of things that drives out to vote in support for some of these incumbents to protect them? Nobody really knows what the turnout's going to look like. And so, you know, there's polling I've heard out there. We'll talk about one in HD21, we touched on that race. But overall, nobody really knows because it's such a weird year. We've never seen runoffs like this. Everyone's kind of shooting in the dark at the moment, although a lot of these polling numbers that we've seen look bad for incumbents. And the fact that a lot of these incumbents finished second place in the primary.

And historically, that does not bode well for incumbents keeping their seats. Why? Explain that. I guess it's just... I know we've talked about it before, but refresh people's minds. Yeah, I guess it's just more ground you have to make up. You're already behind the eight ball in the primary. Take the congressional race in San Antonio, 23. Tony Gonzalez was only six points away from avoiding a runoff, and he got pushed to it.

He's in a much better spot than, say, Dade Phelan, who finished second place, I think, by roughly three points behind David Covey. Now, going into that primary, you saw a lot of, I saw polling that had Covey way up, and that didn't turn out correctly. Totally. Now there was a third candidate in the race, and that's why we have a runoff. So polling is only as good as polling is, you know. Yeah. And there's no really gauging it until we see who turns out and how it comes, how it plays out. But, yeah, I think that's probably why, but.

Which also, I think it's fair to say that if an incumbent is pushed to a runoff, that means that 51% at least of the districts that came out and voted in the primary did not vote for the incumbent. Right. So that's the piece of the pie there is smaller on paper, again, turnout isn't, which is so ridiculous and overused, but turnout really is how runoffs fare. But it shows that there is at least a majority of the voters who came out in the primary who are willing to vote against the incumbent. So let's say that those two candidates who were in the race against the incumbent, obviously one drops out, they're not in the race anymore, they were not in the top two. The candidate moving forward would then potentially on paper, again,

have that base of voters who are against the incumbent aligned behind them. So that's the concern with that incumbent space with that, if they're pushed to a runoff. And oftentimes consultants, people who are trying to get an incumbent into a runoff, they'll purposefully coordinate to get at least three candidates in the runoff, right? In the primary. In the primary, to make sure that they can push the incumbent into a runoff at the end of the day. So that's part of it, too.

If you just get more names on the ballot, you have a better chance because you have the potential to work turnout even more in a runoff. So those are some side notes. Especially if they're quality candidates. Yes. Or who have run before, if there's any sort of name ID at all. Okay. Well, obviously House District 21 is the headliner for the runoff. When, you know, the GOP convention was planned, I don't think anybody realized that the speaker

of the House himself would be in a runoff at this time of year. So Brad, walk us through HG21 and what we're looking at. So I mentioned that Covey defeated Phelan in the primary by roughly three points, a fairly slim margin. It was very close. Alicia Davis, the third place finisher, had like nine points, roughly. So those, presumably those presumably those voters if they all turn out would turn out to vote for Covey now it's not going to turn out that way because not every voter that cast a ballot in the primary is going to vote so that's where the question mark comes in now Covey's team shared a an internal poll with me today, this is Tuesday, and it had 279 likely voters. It was conducted May 13th through May 15th, and a 5.8 margin of error. It's a pretty large margin of error. 5.8? 5.8.

That is big. Yeah, usually it's between two, three, maybe slightly above three. Yeah. So take it with a grain of salt there, and it's also an internal poll. But the questions I read them, they were fair. It was not a push poll. It was not an intentionally slanted poll. And the head-to-head it had was Covey 49, Phelan 40, with undecided 9%, 10% roughly. It doesn't add up to 100 there, but that's the rounding problem with the numbers they put in the memo.

The fave, unfave, covey is at 50% fave, 43% unfave. Explain what fave, unfave is. The general view of the candidate by voters. Favorable or unfavorable? Yeah, favorable. So 50% of those polled, if you can extrapolate that to the voter base here, view Covey in a favorable light versus 43% who view him in an unfavorable light. And for Phelan, that breakdown is 45, 47. So that means he's

underwater a bit. He's at minus two, fave, unfave. Phelan. Phelan is. So you know that's that's not good for him um i'm not i haven't seen any of the speakers internal polling so maybe it shows something different odds are it's probably if they do show something different odds are it's probably somewhere in the middle yeah but still you know covey starting off the, is kind of in the driver's seat. And that's kind of why we've seen him not jump at debating Phelan. Usually in races, the incumbent only has anything to lose if they debate their challenger. And that's why you see challengers just, you know, cage-rattling, let's debate, constantly. Well, we've kind of seen that flip in this runoff. We've seen Phelan accept two debate invites, and Covey has rejected them both for various reasons.

One of them was he didn't think the moderator in the first one that was agreed upon by Phelan in the TV station was fair. She had a tweet about supporting reparations. So they kind of found a clever way out of that one. But overall, they don't want to debate because they feel like they're on the front foot here. And to see an incumbent really pushing a debate is telling. I mean, we know it's a close race and it's just a matter of who turns out. Looking at the finance report that was filed today, Phelan raised $3.4 million. Covey raised $1.6 million. And some of the big donors to Phelan were Allen Hassanflew,

Raymond Hunt, Texas Sands, and Kelsey Warren all gave $100K. Then you have $50K from a bunch, including Miriam Adelson. That's interesting in and of itself, and I'll note that in a second. Then on Covey's side, you have Alex Fairley, the Amarillo businessman

whose daughter Caroline is a state rep elect out in Amarillo. You have the Texans United for Conservative Majority. That's the formerly Defend Texas Liberty group. They put in $425,000. Then you have Dan Patrick, Lieutenant Governor, put in $100,000 himself. So you also have some in-kind, large in-kinds, Associated Republicans of Texas. So far, 200k in-kind in Phelan's favor. And then the really notable one, Texas Defense PAC. I don't know if I've talked about this on the podcast, but they're a new PAC. They filed in April. They're headed up by two

former Tim Scott operatives, one of which is Mitch Carney, who's been involved in a bunch of different things. He was political director for Greg Abbott in the gubernatorial race last cycle. He was also the executive director for the Republican Party of Texas under James Dickey. And he's the son of Dave Carney. Son of Dave Carney, yes. Who is Abbott's basically top guy. Right. Right.

Now he's his own man. Like, he does his own consulting, right? So I wouldn't go so far as to say there's coordination there. I would think there probably isn't explicit coordination. But this is the incumbent defense, basically. And it's funded by $9 million from Miriam Adelson. Of Las Vegas Sands. Of Las Vegas Sands,

who has been trying to legalize casino gambling for a couple cycles now. Clearly they see an opportunity to pick up some, either preserve or pick up some pro casino gambling votes for next session I also heard that she's getting involved at least partially because of the ongoing controversy with you know the fallout from the Nick Fuentes meeting. I think generally she's trying to become a bigger player in terms of these billionaire donors. The Nick Fuentes meeting being when

Defend Texas Liberty, the office, was photographed with Nick Fuentes leaving. It was a whole deal I don't even remember what month this October of last year Fuentes himself is you know anti-semitic

and Adelson's are I believe Jewish so that is probably another explanation but overall this is a flex to become you know a bigger power player yeah in the billionaire circles of Texas politics so there's that yeah it's it's obviously the headliner this is the biggest piece of ground in this turf war and we shall see if Phelan can kind of pull a rabbit out of a hat

here yeah so so many interesting nuggets right there thank you just because it's so interesting people who are just outside observers to politics and they see bills that are passed or people get elected and they think to themselves why was was this passed? Why was this person elected? But everything you just laid out there provides insight into why certain people are elected, why certain bills are proposed or introduced or passed. Because when you bring up the donations from the Las Vegas Sands, gambling has been a huge issue that's being discussed here. And it's not going away. And it's not going away. And so for people listening, if you, in a few months, you know,

start to see a conversation around gambling pick back up, you know, you can go back to this conversation and see, okay, why is gambling being discussed? Well, all this money flowing into certain candidates and to certain races. So that kind of look behind the scenes is, I think, super valuable for people who are just on the outside. Yeah, totally. And I would also plug Rob's Precedented Times newsletter. We went into detail this last edition about some pretty wild, I mean, it seems wild right now to say that there is a speaker in a runoff. That is a wild instance and of course that is true. But walking through, maybe things have been crazy before.

So definitely go and read his latest newsletter and subscribe to get access. And just one more note on what I was just mentioning about people viewing issues from the outside is, you know, it's not always just about the issue that's being discussed, whether it be gambling, gender modification, school choice, whatever it is. There's always money passing hands behind the scenes that influences how people discuss certain issues, vote on certain issues. I think what Brad just discussed, what he's put out on his Twitter today, where money exchanges hands, months down the line, that's how votes end up. And there's not just an ideological fight between candidates in the legislature. There is between consultants as well. And, you know, they're more fluid generally because some of them are really hired guns, but they all generally have a worldview,

of course. And a type of elected official that they will align with more often than not. So that's that aspect. That's what you're talking about right now, the business side of this. And there's a lot of money flowing in all directions, a lot of money to be made. It's a business. It really is. But I will say, too, that there is sometimes the idea that, okay, this person wrote a check for them, so then they will vote this way because they got the check. Oftentimes it's the other way around, right, where this person has an ideology that aligns with a certain group. So then they write a check. It's not quite so

smoke and mirrors as it appears to be. Now it certainly can be, but 85% of the time it's not. It's because somebody aligns with their issue. So then they write the check. It's not the other way around. Or it could be someone may, an incumbent may... Have voted on their issue. Be okay with the idea of, let's say, casino gambling, but know it's a political third rail at the moment among their primary base. So it's on the back burner, yeah. It's not a huge priority for them,

but then if they get all this money and it saves them in the raise, they might say all right yeah time to you know put my money where my mouth is basically okay let's move on cameron sd30 is another huge race this cycle an empty senate excuse me empty well i guess that works but it's a it's an open seat yeah because it's an open seat you know, because it's an open seat. You know, this caught a lot of headlines after Drew Springer decided he was not going to run for reelection. And there was a whole bunch of names that were jumping in, jumping out. Finally landed on Brent Hagenboot. He was sort of the first name that gained a lot of traction.

Names that were throwing their support behind him people like Abbott, Dan Patrick, Rick Perry all saying they were supporting Hagenbue then we saw a familiar name like Carrie DeMora she jumped in the race and then a late entry to the race was Jace Yarborough and it ended up being Yarborough and Hagenbue who Yarborough is the dark horse, right? I mean, he was initially not expected to make it to the runoff. Not expected to make it to the runoff, but he pushed Hagenbue. They both were, they picked up around 36 for Hagenbue, Yarborough 34%. So just separated by a little bit of percentage points there. And what's been interesting, though, is Hagenbue, throughout the entire campaign, even before the runoff, lots of controversy that was being

generated based upon his residency in the SC30 district. You know, we've seen legal challenges from Kerry to Moore. That's sort of pending right now. There was a hearing, then it was put on hold, another hearing put on hold. So that's sort of ongoing. Yarborough even took some legal actions against Hagen-Boo based on this residency. We saw Current Revolt do a very interesting video where they actually went to the residency, which was an office, one of Hagen-Boo's businesses. People should check out the Current Revolt video.

It's entertaining, but it's informative as well. It's interesting. But I'll make sure to mention Hgen-boo has maintained his his claims of residency in the district this entire time putting out multiple press releases lots of political advertisements saying he is a resident of sc30 so he's been sticking by that what's been interesting to see um is hagen-boo has really leaned into the trump endorsement that he's gotten, putting it on the yard signs, mentioning it in political advertisements. Yarborough, I've been really seeing him on social media, doing the block walking, meeting people on the streets. So two sort of different approaches to this runoff campaign. One,

really leaning on endorsements. One, saying with Yarbrough being out on the street meeting people. I think this is a really interesting runoff campaign for people to watch just because of these two different approaches that they're employing. One, leaning heavily, like I mentioned, into endorsements. The other one, really showing they're out on the street. Bring in the residency discussion with Hagenbueh. It's an interesting race. It really is. And, Brad, I think you've been covering some of the finance stuff.

What's been going on with? You know, I think you've been covering some of the finance stuff. What's been going on with? You know, I got you covered. Today, the eight-day report before the runoff was filed. This is Tuesday. Brent Hagenbue reported $1.9 million raised. And that itself is notable because, first, he was mainly self-funded. He put in a million dollars of his own money. Actually, I think it's now $1.8 million because that's the principal outstanding that he has left.

Imagine just dropping a million dollars of your own money. I just can't fathom it. Anyway, especially notable in this is $750,000 of that total came from Lieutenant Governor Patrick. So he's really going to the mat for his guy here, wants to get him over the line, and he's raising a lot of money. He's got 135,000 left on hand for the home stretch. I'm sure he'll raise some more. But then you've got Yarbrough, by contrast,

who's no fundraising slouch himself. He pulled in over $400,000 in this report, and that's on top of, I don't recall the exact number, but it was around there or even slightly above that in the primary. So he's done pretty well with that, especially given that he's lacking all the usual channels of money flooding that comes usually. Like TLR is backing Hagenbue, so they're putting their money in there. It's just like you described on the campaign trail, a different dynamic.

Yeah, and I think the SC30 race and then another race we'll talk about is how campaigns are sort of run in the traditional way, whether it be buying radio spots, TV spots, flyers, mailers, whatever it may be, or the earned advertisements with social media or just walking up to people and introducing yourself knocking on doors um i think sc30 might be a good test case for that another race like tex uh 23 will be another good test case for that um but just an interesting race nonetheless uh with a yarborough late entry pushing to a runoff

and the dynamics in the Senate that could play out if Yarborough is elected. Absolutely. Huge race. We'll definitely be watching it. I'd encourage folks to go read an article from Cameron. It was an interview you had with both candidates, kind of a transcript of their answers, and very, very interested in enlightening as to kind of their motive, what's going on in their heads. It's a really good piece.

Yeah, not just about the issues, either about how they would approach the seat itself, the dynamics in the Senate. So if people are interested in that, go check it out. Absolutely. Thank you, Cam. Matthew, we're coming to you last in the in line here, but certainly not least. Let's talk about House District 12. This was a high profile race in the primary and it's high profile now.

Walk us through House District 12. So the primary saw three contenders, Ben Beas, Trey Wharton and John Harvey Slocum, all three vying for the seat being left open by outgoing state representative Kyle Casal, who has not filed for re-election. Going into the runoff, the top two vote getters included Ben Beas and Trey Wharton, and we've seen some interesting dynamics at play in this runoff regarding notable endorsements moving forward. On one hand, you have Horton, who is carrying support from Slocum. And I think it's important to note that Bias just narrowly edged Slocum out of the position in the runoff. So it's likely there's going to be some pretty good support thrown that direction from having that third candidate throw in support from him. is that Horton is backed by Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who we saw got heavily involved in House races across the state this go-round. On the other

side, with Beas, you have a lot of the very conservative statewide officials, so to speak, including Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who especially got involved in House races this go-round after the failed attempt to impeach him, or I should say they did impeach him in the House, but was acquitted in the Senate. And you saw the Attorney General get back, so to speak, at those members of the House of Representatives who voted to impeach him last year. So that spurred his heavily involved activities in all of these House races. He's backing Bias as well as Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick. Worth mentioning, both officials bring elected experience from prior public offices and one current public office, and that includes, oh, I'm sorry, I got my races confused here. Let me back up. Bias is backed by Attorney General Ken Paxton and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick.

It's worth noting that Paxton got involved in House races, particularly because of the impeachment last year where the House of Representatives impeached him and the Texas Senate acquitted him. So that fueled a lot of that involvement statewide. So it's an interesting race, one of several where you see Greg Abbott on one side and Attorney General Ken Paxton and Dan Patrick on the other. While the district statistically supports Republicans in November, the eventual winner on Tuesday will face Democratic nominee Dean Mullins. There you go, Matthew. Thank you. Brian, let's go to you. Another House District to keep an eye on, House District 61. So that's up in Collin County. The incumbent is State Rep Frederick Frazier and the challenger is Carissa Richardson in the primary. Frazier finished second, Richardson finished first, and actually, if I remember correctly,

Frazier finished closer to the third place candidate than he did Richardson in first place. So quite a gap there for Frazier to make up, though if you look at finance reports that I've been talking about here, quite a gap. Frazier raised almost a million dollars and spent almost half of that, or over half of that, and then Richardson only raised $94,000, spent $90,000. Almost 10 times. Yeah, it is a massive gap of a difference there on that. That obviously bodes well for Frazier, but he's starting out in a difficult position.

He's been embattled with the ongoing charges over impersonating an officer, or like a code officer stemming from 22 the 22 election the removal of a sign um i believe the plea he pled guilty and then the conditions of that were dropped that's it's kind of standing it stands in no man's land right now and both sides are arguing whether he's you know he's all clear or not, but that's definitely played in this race. And so the other aspect of this is Frazier is Ken Paxton's representative in Collin County. And so Paxton has made it a mission to take him out. Meaning the Paxtons live in his district.

Live in his district, yes. And Paxton endorsed both of his challengers in the primary, Richardson, and then I'm blanking on the other guy's name, but the third-place finisher. And so he really wanted to take Frazier out, and Frazier did vote for impeachment, was one of the 60 House Republicans who voted for impeachment. So that's an interesting one to watch, even more so now that we see the fundraising numbers. That

is just fascinating. Absolutely. Yeah. Well, we'll keep an eye on that one. Cameron, coming to you on a race you've already previewed a little bit or hinted at. Hinted. Foreshadowed. Yes. Texas 23. Very interesting race. It is. Walk us through it. Well, it's very interesting because it features a notable YouTuber. The AK guy has pushed Tony Gonzalez to a runoff. And Gonzalez captured around 46%. Herrera captured around 23%. So a bit of a gap there in the initial primary election, but we've started to see the AK guy, Brandon Herrera, gain some traction, especially online. We've seen someone with a big profile, Matt Gaetz, come out hard for Herrera, campaigning with him.

We've seen Congress members like Eli Crane, Bob Good, they come out and supported Herrera campaigning with them we've seen congress members like Eli Crane Bob Goode they come out and supported Herrera so very interesting that these big names from out of state coming in to support someone here in Texas and Gates and Herrera will have an event together at convention too that's right right and so just interesting dynamics there a big reason why that Gates and all these other more Freedom Caucus members are coming in is because they hate Gonzalez. Because Gonzalez has opposed them at every turn on everything, including the speaker fight from last year. Did that happen? Well, and we've seen the current speaker, Mike Johnson, come out for Gonzalez.

He's had events with gonzalez so yeah interesting dynamics yeah you know lines being drawn here in this race um but gonzalez has gotten endorsed by abbott dan patrick so big names you know throwing their name behind uh gonzalez still but just some interesting dynamics at play um they both come out hard in their campaign ads against each other um i in the preview piece we're going to be publishing and i linked to some of the things uh brad has tweeted out about these campaigns uh they are kind of funny, both of them, these campaign ads. And Herrera, his online personality has been very easy to poke at, prod at, use as something to attack because he is a bit politically incorrect, let's say.

Just a bit. Just a bit. Or, let's say. Just a bit. Just a bit. Or vulgar. Yeah, so that's been easy to attack on Gonzalez's end. Herrera has hit Gonzalez on some of his votes. Gonzalez was censured by the Texas GOP, too, which is very notable because this cycle we have, I mean, it's Phelan and Gonzalez that are the two that were censored, which then means the party could in theory, which they have in

21, I don't know if they have in 23. They sent mailers for Herrera. Which means that they can engage in a primary against that person that they've censored. Yeah. And I, that's great context. And I think it's important to touch on again, what we mentioned at the very top of the podcast is it's already difficult to get people out for primary elections. It's even harder to get people out for a runoff in a primary election. So as much fodder as we've seen from either side in this campaign, which one is reaching those voters who go out and vote in a runoff? And is that going to tip the scale in favor of Gonzalezonzalez or herrera we'll have to wait and see in that district right because herrera has i'm seeing 3.4 million

subscribers on youtube which is insane subscribers but does that like i said is this this is a good test case again for does social media presence translate to in-person votes? Yeah. Again, we'll have to wait and see. We'll have to wait and see. Absolutely, Cameron. Thank you. Matt, coming to you, House District 30.

Walk us through what's going on there. With House District 30, A.J. Lauderback and Jeff Bognight will face off in the GOP runoff, a seat held by outgoing state representative Jeannie Morrison. This is another race where Governor Greg Abbott is endorsing one candidate, in this case, Baugh Knight, while the other statewides, including Attorney General Ken Paxton and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, are throwing in behind the other candidate, Lauderback. Both candidates bring experience in public office to the table, with Bonite having served on the Victoria City Council as well as being its present mayor, while Lauterbach has served multiple terms as a county sheriff within the district. It'll be interesting to see how this race shakes down a lot of close margins in the results from the primary

here, as well as major statewides getting involved in both campaigns. Absolutely. Thank you, Matthew. Another house sister, Tester 33. Brad, what do you got? This race is up in the DFW area in Rockwall County, mostly a bit into Collin County. State Rep Justin Holland faces challenger Katrina Pearson, who has, of the group of challengers, the largest national profile. She was a Trump spokeswoman during his 2016 campaign. Even though she was that, she has not gotten a Trump endorsement, though, which itself is notable. She is now endorsed by Abbott, but Abbott stayed out of the primary. He did not endorse.

He hit Holland. He hit Holland. But he stopped short of endorsing. Yeah, and those two have previously been big allies, which is probably an explanation that why Holland did not get endorsed against in this by Abbott until, you know, this became a runoff situation.

And Abbott is, of course, on the school choice crusade. Holland voted against, voted for stripping ESA's education savings accounts from the omnibus bill last year. And, you know, he himself is a prolific fundraiser he pulled in over a million dollars uh over 1.3 million dollars in this report to Pearson's 473,000 dollars um that'll be that's interesting to watch there uh she's still during she was out raised during the primary and she's still finished above him I think by a few percentage points but one of the most interesting aspects of this is being one of those members who had endured who had voted to strip ESAs Holland had been given a lot of money from the Charles Butt public education Pack, the HEB, owner of HEB.

And in this runoff, that Public Education Pack by Charles Butt has basically taken his money and gone home. He has not given to members like he did during the primary. They spent over $4 million. And so far in this report, he only gave about $50,000, $56,000 between Holland and John Kempel in HG44. So it's pennies compared to what they've doled out in the primary race. And maybe it's they see the writing on the wall. Maybe it's they want to not anger the governor

any more than they already have so that they can try and get whatever they want in whatever legislations to come on school choice. But that doesn't bode well for Holland or any of the other incumbents who are in that group of members who voted to strip ESAs. So fascinating one to watch.

Two big personalities in this, but still no Trump endorsement, which I think it tells you where she stands in the Trump world, or at least a part of Trump. And I don't think we'll see one coming in the last few days here. There's no way that that's coming to the pipeline. No way. Knock on wood. Yeah. Who knows? Yeah. It could be happening while we're at convention. Who knows? But that would be very, very surprising, I think, to see any sort of support come from the Trump camp. I think it's very, I think that's where we're at. Right. I think you're right. Awesome. Cameron,

another spicy congressional race. Yeah. The 28th congressional congressional district what's going on there well i think it's spicy for what's going to happen in the general so what this primary is alluding to is a potential battle because henry quayar who is the current elected representative for text 28 he's in a legal battle for the ages he's the DOJ has charged him with all sorts of foreign influence bribery and some of his consultants have pled guilty to their involvement in this so he's currently enraptured in all sorts of legal trouble so that could spell an interesting dynamic for the general. What we have now in this primary runoff are two individuals, Jay Furman and Lazaro Garza Jr. Furman received 44.8% in the March GOP gap in the initial vote percentages there. But like I mentioned,

this is going to be an interesting district for the general because of Cuellar's current DOJ troubles, but also for the reason that Congressional District 28 has seen some partisan voter changes over the last couple of years with more than a seven point swing in favor of Republicans in the 2020 presidential election. And it's only a D 54 percent district. So for politicals out there that are looking at districts that could flip from Democrat to Republican, they definitely have their eyes on this race. Absolutely. Thank you, Cameron. Matt, coming to you, House District 37. We have an incumbent there kind of facing some interesting challenges from Democrats. Sure. While Republican State Representative Janie Lopez has secured her re-nomination for the coastal South Texas District 37 seat.

Democrats are holding a runoff to see who will challenge Lopez this November. After seeing a four-person primary where nobody was able place in the primary with 32% of the vote, to Jonathan Garcia, who obtained 24% in the primary. The race is considered a close swing district. The Texans Partisan Index, which measures electoral support for candidates in November, shows that the district just slightly favors Democrats at a D plus 51% rating. Regardless of which candidate becomes a Democratic nominee, this will be a close watch to race this November, especially for those watching to see which direction or which party retains control, majority control of the Texas House of Representatives, including by what kind of margin. So this is definitely one of those key seats in play. Absolutely. Matthew, thank you. Okay, we're going to go on to some quick mentions here, some honorable mentions. Cameron, what do you got i'll mention house district 91 that's

incumbent stephanie click is facing off against david lowe i mention it just because it's a highly contentious runoff with the different with both campaigns hitting each other hard with david lowe criticizing click over some of her previous votes and then Click hitting Lowe with some of his previous purchases of questionable domain names, let's say. So these two have faced off before in runoffs with Click coming out ahead last time. But in the primary race back in March, Click was able to secure 48, low 46. So not much separation there.

And with how contentious this runoff campaign has been, it'll be interesting to see how that has affected voters that are going to come out to the polls. Absolutely. Of course, they face each other last cycle as well. Yeah, this is a rematch. Rematch. Heated rematch. There's no love last cycle as well. Yeah, this is a rematch. Rematch. Heated rematch.

There's no love lost between those two. No, certainly. Okay, I'm going to mention quickly House District 97. This is Craig Goldman's seat that he vacated to run for Congress. And this is Cheryl Bean and John McQueen. They're the Republicans that made it to the runoff. This is like a Fort Worth area district. It has a TPI of 58%, or R58, so pretty solidly Republican suburban area.

This is notable in that McQueen has been endorsed by Abbott. Bean has been endorsed by kind of the other apparatus of the GOP, although they've been aligned in a lot of races. They're not on this one. by kind of the other apparatus of the GOP, although they've been aligned in a lot of races. They're not on this one. Cruz, Patrick, and Paxton are all endorsing Bean. Bean is endorsed by Right to Life, McQueenie by Alliance for Life, two different pro-life groups that are often endorsing different types of Republican candidates. And Bean is also signed on to the contract with Texas, which we've talked ad nauseum about on this podcast. Basically, reforms in the Texas House relating to leadership, the speakership, committee assignments, and chairmanships, etc.

Also interesting on the finance side, I've not seen Bean file her report yet, but McQueenie brought in $1.9 million. Over a million of it was from Texas Defense PAC. But also, Wilde, just consider this, that this is a House district that we're talking about, right? Or how much did Hagenbue, who's endorsed by crazy big names also in a Senate race, that's five times larger than these House districts bring in? He brought in one point how much? One point? 1.9 million. Are you talking about Hagenbue?

Hagenbue. Yeah, 1.9 also. So there you go. It's the same for this small house district. That is wild. Like, it's not normal, typically, to see that much money in a house race, especially in a runoff. The other aspect is that Bean was so close to avoiding a runoff. McQueenie was a very, very distant second.

And they're just, if that's, if they can't flip that, they're just letting all this money on fire. But they, I'm sure, see something, see an opportunity. Yeah, Bean got 49.6%, and McQueenie got 29.6%. So that's a 20-point spread there. She was like a few hundred votes away from avoiding it. So close. Yeah. Very, very, very close.

So that's one to watch for sure. Kim Roberts has a story up at the texan.news now. Nice. Brad, what do you got? I'll mention Texas 12. That's what State Rep Goldman is running for against John O'Shea. That's been a very contentious race as well. Goldman was close to avoiding a runoff but did not.

O'Shea pushed him to a runoff. But I'll also mention HD44, that's John Kemple, state rep, facing Allen Schoolcraft. It's another one of those school choice-focused races, another one where the Charles Butt Pack did not essentially pull out. Kemple raised quite a bit of money, over a million. Schoolcraft raised over $500,000. Schoolcraft also has been self-financing some.

But Kemple's dad served in the legislature, and so he's got a lot of name ID there, legacy there. It's going to be tough to beat him, but I don't recall which places they finished in the runoff or in the primary. I think Schoolcraft finished first. But regardless, it was close. And who knows how this is going to go. Another example of just who's a more motivated base.

I have no idea. And it could vary between districts too, right? I mean, more rural district. That in and of itself, suburban, rural, urban, plays a huge part in the school choice debate. So we'll see what that ends up being. Yep. A lot to watch.

There's 15 high-profile legislative races in this runoff. One we didn't even talk about was HD 146 with Sean Theory. Oh, my gosh. Yeah, that's a huge one. Holly Hansen has coverage, so go check that out for sure.G. 146 with Sean Theory. Oh, my gosh. Yeah, that's a huge one. Holly Hansen has coverage, so go check that out for sure. Yep. That's the Democrats' own ideological battle. We see that playing out in the Republican side.

Well, it's happening in the Democratic side as well. So a lot to watch. And just because the Republicans are in power in Texas does not mean that there's infighting among the Democrats as well. I think a lot of times in runoffs or primaries, Republicans, because it can appear more high stakes because it's a party in power. It's easy to forget that there's a lot going on in the Democratic side as well. So that's a very important race to go and keep an eye on. You know, if we had three hours to talk, there's so many things we could go over. But just for me, big takeaways, things that I've been watching, the finance reports, how much money is being thrown at these campaigns, what you guys just mentioned about how to motivate people to come out for these runoffs, much easier in an urban district as opposed to a rural district, And how there are fights on both sides of the political aisle.

There are battles between Republicans and there's battles between Democrats based upon issue differences. So just big things that I'm taking away. Yeah, absolutely. And I will say, too, in these House districts, you'll see some candidates, when we're talking about voters we're hitting, they're not hitting all 200 and something thousand voters in their district. They are looking at who are repeat Republican primary voters. That list is much smaller than the broad population of the district. They're hitting those people, trying to get them out.

Same on the Democratic side. Who are our 4D voters, our Democrat voters who voted in the last four Democratic primaries. They're going after that base. So this is a turnout game like crazy. This is the deep politics that is happening constantly behind the scenes. It gets weedy in runoffs especially. But people should understand when those votes are cast, all this is happening beforehand. All these calculations, all this money passing hands,

this ends up being the votes that are cast when these people end up in whatever the Senate or the House chamber. So all very important stuff that you guys have been covering. There are maps up in the offices of what precincts have been hit twice, what haven't been. In Senate districts, you have usually a couple dozen block walkers out there hitting things if you have the budget for it. And that's a big GODB get-out-the-vote effort, trying to get people literally out of their doors and to a polling location. It is wild.

So, yeah, we could go into whole campaign details on a different pod. That's a fun thing in and of itself. Matt, looking at the primaries, looking at what we have coming down the pipeline here, are there any big takeaways you have or things you're watching as we head to Election Day? Well, one story I'm working on piecing together just because it's not easy to put all this information in one spot are county sheriff races all over the state of Texas. You know, that's the county's top law enforcement officer within their respective jurisdictions. And I started noticing that there's quite a few runoffs for that spot around the state.

So I've been having to painstakingly go through and try and find as many of them as I could. So I'm working on getting that story finished up and highlight for our readers what's going on around the state as far as, you know, some of these very important law enforcement positions that are on the ballot. Absolutely. And we do have local runoff stories up as well at the Texan, Harris County, Tarrant County,

Sheriff's races across the state. So make sure to go check those out as well. Well, gentlemen, we've had technical difficulties up the wazoo this pod. We have a lot to get back to, lots of drafts, lots of pre-writes, lots of previews, lots of convention prep, so I'll let us get off the mics now.

Folks, we appreciate you tuning in to this podcast, and we will catch you next week to talk about all the results of these roll drops can't wait thank you to everyone for listening if you enjoy our show rate and review us on apple podcast spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts and if you want more of our stories subscribe to the texan at the texan.news follow us on social media for the latest in texas politics and send any questions for our team to our mailbag by d Follow us on social media for the latest in Texas politics and send any questions for our team to our mailbag by DMing us on Twitter or shooting us an email to editor

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