The Texan Podcast - Weekly Roundup - November 4, 2022

Episode Date: November 4, 2022

Want to support reporting on Texas politics that doesn’t include the spin? Subscribe at https://thetexan.news/subscribe/ Or get a FREE “Fake News Stops Here” mug when you buy an annual subscription: https://go.thetexan.news/mug-fake-news-stops-here-2022/?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=weekly_roundupThe Texan’s Weekly Roundup brings you the latest news in Texas politics, breaking down the top stories of the week with our team of reporters who give you the facts so you can form your own opinion. Enjoy what you hear? Be sure to subscribe and leave a review! Got questions for the reporting team? Email [e-mail] — they just might be answered on a future podcast. This week on The Texan’s Weekly Roundup, the team discusses: Gov. Greg Abbott’s past and possible future in the highest statewide office in TexasLt. Gov. Dan Patrick stating rural schools would be “bracketed out” of school voucher programsBeto O’Rourke’s policy prescriptions and their popularity with Texan votersThree Democrats on the border in South Texas hoping to fend off challenges from the GOPO’Rourke possibly violating election laws with his rallies close to polling placesThe Republican and Democrat vying for an open House seat in Williamson CountyBernie Sanders stumping for Michelle Vallejo against Monica de la CruzThe two incumbents clashing for the same South Texas seatA controversial campaign contribution to Congressman Henry CuellarA rundown of which State Board of Education seats are on the ballotSen. Roland Gutierrez’ plan to provide $300 million to Uvalde victims and families

Happy Friday, folks. Senior Editor Mackenzie Taylor here on the Texans Weekly Roundup Podcast. This week, the team discusses Governor Greg Abbott's past and possible future in the highest statewide office in Texas. Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick stating rural schools would be bracketed out of school voucher programs. Beto O'Rourke's policy prescriptions and their popularity with Texan voters. Three Democrats on the border in South Texas hoping to fend off challenges from the GOP. O'Rourke possibly violating election laws with his rallies close to polling locations. The Republican and Democrat vying for an open House seat

in Williamson County. Bernie Sanders stumping for Michelle Vallejo against Monica de la Cruz. A controversial campaign contribution to Congressman Henry Cuellar. Two incumbents clashing for the same South Texas seat, a rundown of which State Board of Education seats are on the ballot, and Senator Roland Gutierrez plan to provide $300 million to Uvalde victims and families.

As always, if you have questions for our team, DM us on Twitter or email us at editor at thetexan.news. We'd love to answer your questions on a future podcast. Thanks for listening and enjoy this episode. Well, howdy folks. It's Mackenzie with Brad, Hayden, and Matthew. Matthew, I'm going to start with the podcast right off the top because I have a bone to pick with you. Uh-oh. I don't think you know why at all. I don't and you would have no idea these conversations are even happening here at the office so matt for those who don't

know is in west texas he'll be joining our austin team before the start of session so that he can be in the capital full-time here in austin but he's writing full-time for us in west texas as of right now and will be for about another month. Here's the thing. As we've gotten to know you, Matthew, I've gotten to know you better. Your sunny disposition has been very gloomy for Mac front and center. And I love it because I feel like we can kind of we were both. We both have that, you know, sunny disposition and positivity.

However, here's the problem. The boys have deemed you the most enthusiastic person on our team. And that means I'm no longer that. And I'm angry about it. Well, you know. Gosh, shucks, guys. What can I say? And I'm really mad about it. That's like something i take great pride in i'm turning bright blush red like the cowardly lion well we wouldn't be able to tell

because you look like an anonymous source in a documentary or we can't even see your face in this light on the on the recording here but anyway i don't even remember who was the first to bring it up it was can i do my anonymous source voice? Your anonymous source voice should not be on this podcast. And I took great pride. There it is. Yeah, Brad was the first to bring it up. I took great pride.

Sorry to hear that. He took great pride in it, and I'm still mad about it. So, as you can tell. The reason this came about was mac usually starts the content call every morning every monday morning hi guys how was your weekend when we're all just dragging and then matt comes along and he's just like rearing to talk and he outdoes you on the call and that's why you have lost your crown as it were but i'm notorious also can we just talk about how i told you guys to all mute your slack and then my slack was the one that went off

okay i'm calling myself out here um that's true but i'm notoriously not a morning person and we all know this it's notorious i feel like that's unfair in some ways matt though is objectively more enthusiastic yeah like on slack and your messages you'll add a few exclamation points in your messages matt will type in all caps with 10 exclamation points at the end i don't do i go yahoo with a bunch of o's. With a bunch of O's. And a dash and a Y, Yahoo-y. And then I put exclamation point. Sometimes there are some ones mixed in with the exclamation points. That's true.

Because you get a little carried away and don't press the shift button all the way down. It's true. Now it's become just like a stylistic choice. Yeah. I'm like, now it's become something I do. And now she does it on purpose and it's just funny. It's true. Well, Matt, I will relinquish that crown to you, but other crowns I have, which I will think about what they are, I will not relinquish and I will fight you tooth

and nail for them. Well, I appreciate that. I'll take it for now, but I'll probably lose my sunny disposition when I leave the beautiful ranch in West Texas for the People's Republic of Austin. Understandable. Understandable. And then I will celebrate in the streets. You'll retain your crown once again. Oh, my Atlanta. Well, let's jump into the news. Brad, we're going to start with you. We are nearing election day. It's next Tuesday. And after that, we'll know the future of Texas's top executive. Give us a preview of the articles that you wrote this week. So the first one was on Governor Greg Abbott.

We did two kind of preview pieces, one of each of the candidates. And this one was just kind of a the theme I noticed was that a lot of crap has happened in the last three years. A lot. Yeah. And when you like list it all out, it's insane to think about. Um, and so I just kind of listed all out and, um. You know how you go to some presidential libraries and you're like, okay, this, not

too much happened during this president's term if governor greg abbott was to have a governor's library governorship gubernatorial library it would have a lot of things and that's just from the last few years yeah in this piece and so you know a lot of it's abbott had no control over um at least it happening in the first place um obviously he controlled his reactions and uh a lot of people disagree on whether he made the right decisions on things like covet shutdowns or um the power grid and it's obviously a big topic this in this race but he's outlasted all of it and at least right now based on polling that's out there he appears primed to to win a third term and that kind of sets the table for a lot of policy fights down the road next session and probably beyond that um he has a remarkable remarkable ability to outpace the other statewides in in his races um i think he

won by 13 points in 2018 while the other statewides won by a lot closer margins you know ted cruz being first and foremost won by what two percent roughly and so um i i think it's uh it's just he's an interesting candidate and he's overseen especially and especially tumultuous few years here um but uh we'll see where it goes from there i guess well and those big ticket items those big events that have happened specifically have divided voters on both sides of the aisle, too, which is, I think, how this works often. But COVID, for example, right. Republicans did not think Governor Abbott kept things open in the way that he's touting now. They criticized his shutdowns and the things that he decided not to do or to do like the statewide mask mandate that's a huge point of contention whereas democrats are like you did not do nearly enough and that's a difficult thing to face in a general yes not not to mention a primary certainly the primary not to mention at the time you know you have a bunch of people uh clamoring for different

decisions on this what do you do right um it is that i guarantee you that is not a position he even somewhat envisioned himself being in before it happened and then it happened um power grid i mean that's something that is which is so difficult to talk about because the tates the state's top executive certainly has power to shore up reliability in some ways for the power grid and texas's grid indirectly but yes that's what I'm saying like his ability in some way or shape or form to influence what happens with the grid but it's more influence than direct policy

making right because the legislature needs to anyway I have but that's on top of the fact that it was a crazy storm I mean we I have talked about this topic but you know, who envisions like a hundred year storm like that

happening? It lasted a hundred years, kids. That's not what I mean, but okay. But, you know, there was a lot of, especially on that one, there's a lot of bad luck. There's a lot of bad luck on COVID, you know, like just it happening in the first place what are the odds that uh governor abbott was in that position

when this global pandemic occurred you know um rick perry wasn't could have happened just as uh 10 years ago and so um it's it's been definitely stuff happened things that you know again there's fault in a lot of different ways but it is so nuanced and there are so many shades of gray yes and political rhetoric and campaign ads will not tell you the full story and that is where it becomes so difficult for voters to discern especially those in texas who are undecided which albeit a small percentage of voters are undecided regardless those are still people that will have a big influence on election day and the thesis of that i recommend you go read the piece um the thesis of it is that you know despite all of this he is still primed to to win It would be a shock if he were to lose next week. I think everyone is safe in saying that.

Doesn't mean it won't happen. Doesn't mean it can't happen. But it would be very surprising. And despite all this crap that the world has thrown at Abbott, he's still in pole position to win this race. Well, we'll get into his challenger here in a minute but brad thank you for that and yes folks make sure to go to the texan.news and read all about this there's a lot of detail in these pieces brad wrote the preview of this race so certainly go and check it out speaking of um top positions in texas let's talk about lieutenant governor dan patrick hayden

he changed course on what could be a key issue during the upcoming legislative session set to start in January. What did he have to say about school choice? Well, you're right. It could be a key issue in the upcoming session. Governor Abbott has made comments on the stump that signal he wants to advance school choice legislation, although he has been reticent about the issue because it's complicated for the reasons we're about to get into. Lieutenant Governor Patrick went on Chad Hastie's radio program earlier this week and tempered his position on school vouchers a little bit. He said that any legislation supported by him in the upcoming session would bracket out, is the phrase he used, rural school districts from school voucher programs. And of course, school vouchers are

funds that are available to families for them to take and spend on private education rather than sending their kids to public school. And many are opposed to that idea, particularly lawmakers from rural areas, because it threatens the limited amount of taxpayer funds that those rural school districts have. And school districts are often the largest employers in some of these sparsely populated areas. So this is an important that is an issue that is important to rural Texas. But Patrick said that those districts would be bracketed out and seem to be moderating his support for school choice ahead of the election. Democrat Mike Collier, his opponent, has made public education a feature of his candidacy.

What was his response to these remarks from the lieutenant governor? Well, Collier had made this an issue long before Patrick brought it up this week, and Collier characterized it as a flip flop. He called it backtracking and said it was just, quote, a last minute hollow campaign promise designed to save himself. And Collier has been appealing to a more moderate position on many issues, but especially he's supported public education and said that he wants to increase funding for public schools, and he has not been shy about his support for public education. So Collier is characterizing it as a flip-flop, and he continued to criticize Patrick for what he believes is an effort to, quote, privatize and profitize our public schools. Why is all of this politically significant the week before Election Day?

Well, I went into this a little bit with rural districts being more opposed to school voucher programs and more moderate voters probably more inclined to support Collier, and Collier highlighting a handful of Republican endorsements by mostly outgoing or retired politicians, Patrick may be a little bit anxious about Election Day because it is not inevitable that he will win. He even said himself on his radio appearance that the polls that say that he is 10 or 12 points ahead and that Abbott is 10 or 12 points ahead, he does not consider those polls to be accurate. And he stated that the polls he trusts only shows him about five or seven points ahead. And he said the same thing about the governor's race. So he was urging his supporters not to take the race for granted, to turn out to vote, and to encourage those who support his stances on the issues to also turn out and vote. Spicy stuff. Well, Hayden, thanks for covering that for us. Bradley, we're going to jump back to the governor's race. Your other preview piece is on the top of the ticket. This is

Beto O'Rourke. You went through, talked about his candidacy, the policy issues that he's talking about. Give us a rundown of that piece. So Beto O'Rourke is now on his third high-level campaign for political office. The first was 2018 against Senator Ted Cruz. The second, 2020. Very short-lived bid for president we're not counting his congressional um right bid and i would put that a rung below yeah um because he wasn't running across the whole state absolutely and a lot of folks don't even know who he was when he ran yeah for senate yeah and now he is running for governor and in that span you know well i said it was a wild three years for for abbott which in terms of governing it absolutely was. For O'Rourke, politically, it's been a wild three years, four years, because of how much he has kind of shifted on his political views. You know, everybody knows he presented a more moderate version of his positions against Senator Ted Cruz and very narrowly lost almost one.

Things like the very famous one is and the most drastic change was on guns. He didn't want to take any AR-15s, AK-47s away in 2018. And then he said that he wanted to in the presidential primary and during this race he's gone back and forth on that um he has solidified his opinion of late probably since about june he's he's had his position um but it's that while he would like to remove those kinds of weapons from communities he recognizes that there's no chance of that with a Republican legislature. And even with a, a kind of, um, competitive Democrat controlled one, that would be pretty politically difficult to pull off as well so um not to mention the implications of does the constitution even allow you to do this um so he has had quite a an odd journey on a bunch of different policy positions um and so going into this race he is running from behind quite a bit and he hasn't he's lost a lot

of the momentum he had in the summer right after the uvalde shooting and after the overturning of roe um that was the the closest point of of polls that i saw he was about five points behind in a few of them back to back and that's since grown to now it's like nine points the real clear politics polling average and so so it seems like if things hold, you know, his third bid will not be the charm, you know, third time will not be the charm. And so where does it go from here? I don't know. But he's said consistently that he just, he feels like he belongs in the political process running for office and right now democrats don't have a big bench if any bench at all and so in texas in texas and so there's very little indication that

this will be his last campaign if he does in fact lose and to be fair ask any elected official and tell you the only way to run for office is unopposed. And with Abbott facing somebody in the general as prolific in terms of fundraising and organizing and just building a momentum that we haven't really seen in Texas on the Democrat side, that's not something to shy away from. So certainly, absolutely. If you look at the numbers, it is a it's an underdog effort for beto o'rourke but don't also count out what this means for down ballot races what this looks like in terms of election day for folks in even though there aren't as many swing districts for folks in those swing districts in the more suburban areas we just don't know what this will look like now trends all point just like said, to a strong win for many Republicans in Texas

and across the country. It's a different environment. It's an entirely different environment. But at the same time, you just can't count out somebody with this kind of momentum, messaging, and support. I mean, the number of people I just, and again, we're in Austin, it's a bubble.

It's an absolute political bubble. But the number of people I see out there with merch for a candidate in political office is absolutely unbelievable. I mean, there is a movement behind this person that I did not think would pick up the steam it has after his presidential bid when he made a lot of those very difficult to circumvent political positions that would typically kind of nail your coffin in Texas, even for a Democrat. Sorry, I just want to add, because you can't discount the role of name ID in this, because to Brad's point, Democrats don't have a lineup of people with all this name ID that they can run in the state of Texas. And like Mac is just saying, when Beto gets out there and he campaigns for himself, he's also campaigning for all Democrats in Texas. And so, Brad, I think you're exactly right. If Beto were to bow out of Texas politics because he loses this governor's race, that would leave a major gap that I don't know how Democrats would fill next cycle, even in two years from now and there are two two senate seats coming up for election in one in 24 one in 26 and so i find it hard to believe that he won't run for either of those if he doesn't win this right um as far as his campaign you know he has lost a lot of momentum since that he had in in the summer but he still has raised a lot of money and he has drawn a lot,

a lot of crowds to Constance in his campaigns for office. Um, he has at least as of, as of February, he had 44,000 volunteers and across the whole state. That's still a lot of people. Um, and so he's very clearly

the top, the heaviest hitter among Democrats in Texas. It's looking like that he'll come up short again, both because of the candidate he's running against and the

prevailing winds of what's going on nationally and globally. If you don't mind me interjecting, I'd like to throw in one detail about the impact Beto has had running, and that is the impact on down-ballot races. We saw last time he ran against Ted Cruz, a lot of appellate courts flipped from red to blue, a lot of down ballot races. And so even if Beto doesn't win this race, doesn't win a future race, I think there's a large benefit to the party pushing him to run again if they still see that impact on down ballot races yeah well i will to your point matt say a democrat losing repeatedly in texas does not

carry the same political shame that a republican losing repeatedly in texas has they're already at a disadvantage they're viewed very much as the underdog attempting to win for the people that they're attempting to represent that's just how the the party It's an arleaning state. Yes. And if a Republican loses, they get drugged through the mud. Absolutely. For sure. That's just the nature of it. Your voter base is entirely different, right? If you are on a statewide ballot in Texas

and you lose to a Democrat, that's a whole other topic. It hasn't happened in 30 years. It hasn't happened in 30 years. If you're a Democrat, you can rally the troops behind you again because they know it's a losing battle and eventually one day you might win right it's a totally different narrative which makes sense it makes sense yeah so again i recommend you go read that that article um it's it's been a fascinating race to follow, even though it's not quite as competitive as maybe we thought it would turn

out to be. Um, you know, it's not 2018 cruise V beta. It's just not totally different. So, um, but still it's something that's a high profile race.

He's still making the late night TV rounds. There's still a lot of national attention, Hollywood fundraisers that are happening, support, you know, on social media from folks all over the country so it is very getting a lot of free concert tickets that's the other thing i was thinking that i couldn't remember that's right um unfortunately harry styles and and willie nelson cannot out do a uh you know inflation

at eight percent but it might help a little maybe it might help a little. Maybe. It might help a little. I wonder how much it actually helps. I actually do too. Yeah, who knows? But regardless, we'll be going to pine on this all day. But Brad, thank you so much. And certainly, folks, make sure to go to thetexan.news and read all about it.

And hey, if you enjoy our podcast each week, subscribe to The Texan. We're not funded by corporate interests or big donors, so we rely on the subscriptions of everyday Texans to keep churning out news. We will opine on this model later on in the podcast, so make sure to stay tuned. But it is so important to subscribe. When you do subscribe, you'll get access to stories like all the ones we've been discussing on this podcast as soon as they're published so that you can stay informed, up to speed, and ready to vote at the ballot box. A subscription is $9 monthly, but you can save by purchasing an annual subscription for $90, which comes out to just $7.50 per month. And we just brought back a fan favorite

merch item. You've heard us talk about it before. New subscribers will now get a free fake news stops here mug, by far our most popular item of all time. For more details, visit the texan.news forward slash subscribe or click the url in the description of this podcast let's jump back to the stories brad let's keep talking about about beto o'rourke this is a totally different story than we just talked about but he has held get out the vote rallies gotv rallies at precincts and come under some criticism give us the details so every day multiple times a day o'rourke has been his campaign has been holding these uh rallies at polling locations across the state uh you know places

from dallas and austin to the real grand valley um all over the place big and small and he's just basically giving his elevator pitch you know rah rah let's get to the polls let's vote me as the next governor vote me um but a couple of these at least a couple have been criticized for being a little too close to the actual polling precinct and um there is a there are two laws that are on the books of note here. The first is that you cannot electioneer within a hundred feet of the door of the polling precinct or the voting precinct. And then the other one is you cannot use, you cannot electioneer while using a megaphone

or some sort of loudspeaker within a thousand feet of that precinct um video surfaced on on social media of um uh well actually it was he it was his own video like his campaign live streams all these things and they were on the steps of a precinct in a library that is serving as a precinct in San Juan. And it looks a little too close to the door. There's also another video of Monica de la Cruz, a congressional candidate there, visibly upset about how close they are. And another instance occurred in Waco

where O'Rourke was speaking into a microphone that was then blasting out on a loudspeaker talking about giving his pitch. And that was well within 1,000 feet of the precinct. And the Waco or the what county is Waco in? Waco? McLennan. Thank you. McLennan County gop filed a complaint about that um to my knowledge there has not been one filed of against them for the incident in san juan i looked at various recordings and there's at least one more um in nueces county in Corpus Christi that the little huddle, the group that he had, the rally,

was at least on the edge of the 100-foot line, maybe crossing it. I'm not sure. Again, no complaint has been filed against that. But it just seems like they are they have not really paid close attention to what they're doing on this and it is would be a violation of election code like it's there for a reason um whether you think it's important or not um it's there in statute and so he's catching some flack for that i did hear from um after this, the San Juan video made the rounds. He was still in the RGV and I heard from someone in Harlingen who was at the rally that they were just outside the hundred foot radius. And so it seems like they have corrected at least for now, but we'll see if that continues. There you go. Thank you, Bradley.

Matthew, we are coming to you. Three Democrat incumbent lawmakers whose districts include parts of the southern border with Mexico are facing Republican challengers. We've been rolling out election pieces all this week, last week, kind of focusing in on some of these general election races that are more contentious. There are fewer that are contentious than during the primary because it's after redistricting, right? We have fewer races that are as tight as maybe the primaries would be politically. But regardless, these are three very interesting districts to keep an eye on. Tell us what's going on there and what is the big issue for voters? That's right, Mackenzie. Whenever we were looking at all the different races up and down Texas's border with Mexico, three of these races really stood out. One of them is the longest border district in the Texas legislature. Democratic incumbents, and they're also among some of the most competitive races this November. The three starts off with House District 74, which is presently held by incumbent state

representative Eddie Morales. He's facing Republican businesswoman from Alpine, Catherine Parker, for that seat. And if you're not familiar with that district, it runs some 770 miles, nearly touching El Paso on one end and running past Del Rio to the eastern side. In Senate District 19, Democrat Senator Roland Gutierrez is facing Republican challenger Robert Garza. And lastly, with Senate District 20 incumbent State Senator Juan Chuy Hinoja, I think I pronounced that right, has a challenger in Republican candidate Wesley Wright. We wanted to highlight these three races, particularly because of how multiple recent polls show border security is a top issue this election for Texas voters. We thought it would be interesting to highlight how and if this issue impacts this race, especially with the fact that these races hold relatively, while the Democrats hold leads, it's fairly narrow whenever you look at it in the competitive light statewide. So far, Morales and Hinoza have taken fairly moderate tones on the issue of border security. From what we can tell, Senator Gutierrez is not. However, all three of the Republican

candidates have been campaigning on border security very strongly, especially in light of how the crisis continues to get worse. Yeah, absolutely. Worth checking out. And South Texas in general is going to be a fun area to watch. Both sides of the aisle have a lot to say, a lot of money being poured into that area. And these border districts are a little bit adjacent to that and very fascinating to watch regardless. But Matt, thanks for your coverage. A great piece of checkout at the texan.news brad one of the state house races to watch next week is in williamson county uh very different from the border districts tell us about it and why it's notable so house district 52 is notable because it's one of the seats that republicans lost lost in the 2018 beta wave uh james talarico uh democrat state rep um he won that flipped it

and has been serving that ever since now it is open because he has decided to uh jump across county lines and run for an open austin seat. He did this because, well, redistricting happened, and the district that was like D53, according to our ratings, changed to R55. So it's still competitive, but it is definitely more Republican favoring. And so with Tallarico now in Austin, this Williamson County seat that encompasses most of Taylor,

most if not all of taylor uh is up for election and so um it's up for grabs and the two candidates running are republican caroline harris who is a senate staffer for senator brian hughes and democrat luis echegare um and so uh they are duking it out although the democrat is he's not raised a lot of money he he didn't reply to my request for an interview so i can't really tell you much about him other than what's on his website um but he's fairly progressive um you know this is one of those suburban seats that you typically see more of the uh conservative uh or at least conservative leaning republican against a progressive or progressive leaning democrat and so that's kind of the situation here i would say um but republicans have put a lot more

resources into this behind harris she won a very competitive primary and won the runoff against patrick mcginnis but at root of all of the district's big issues is the fact that it is booming in population um i think it's the it's at least one of if not the fastest growing counties in the entire state in a state that is fast growing so um you know things like zoning um how do you prepare for population growth and that's that's i wrote about that previously in taylor and that's, if Harris wins, she'll have to contend with there, at least tangentially. She mentioned infrastructure is a really big issue. That makes total sense when you have a booming population.

But also, she has said she's heard concerns about the border. As she said, what happens at the border doesn't stay at the border. People that come across go elsewhere throughout the border. Um, as she said, what happens at the border doesn't stay at the border. People that come across go elsewhere throughout the state. She said that has, that even happens in central Texas and Austin and Lansing County. So, uh, check out the PC more of what she's,

what she believes is, um, is important. I also put in some of the Democrats priorities, uh, that he lists on his website, but, uh,

it's definitely a race i'm going to be watching and if republicans can win this if harris wins they will regain one of the seats they lost in 2018 it'll be very interesting to see i will say folks on election night if you want the best coverage in the state make sure to check out the texan we will have a decision desk powered election results tracker and it'll go up in the morning but we'll have it as soon as 7 p.m rolls around election results will start we'll start uh filing in for the evening and we'll have it all right at the texan.news so make sure to look out for that as well as just coverage the entire night from the reporters they will be throughout the state attending watch parties

check out their twitters it'll be there'll be a lot happening so if you want firsthand accounts of what's going on make sure to follow our guys and gals on twitter as well as um just check out the texan.news for all the election coverage we've got it all shameless plug hayden um speaking of more elections a big name on the left weighed in on one of the congressional races that republic Republicans hope to pick up on election day. Tell us about Bernie Sanders' recent trip to South Texas. Bernie Sanders, the independent U.S. senator from Vermont and unsuccessful Democratic candidate for president, came to South Texas and stumped for Michelle Vallejo, who is running against Republican Monica de la Cruz, who also unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2020. Bernie Sanders was touting many of the progressive positions that he shares with Vallejo. He said, quote, we need Vallejo in Congress to fight for an agenda that represents the working people of Texas, good-paying union jobs, Medicare for all,

and protecting a woman's right to choose, end quote. Sanders also campaigned for Greg Kesar, who is an Austin City Council member running in Congressional District 35. Sanders was pulling his progressive weight behind him, and remember, Sanders is a self-described Democratic socialist. He was endorsing these two candidates as Republicans are hoping to pick up this seat. And this seat is currently occupied by Vicente Gonzalez, who is now running in a different district against Mayra Flores. So that's why this is somewhat of an, it is an open seat, but it is currently held by Democrats. De La Cruz did respond to the criticism.

She said, quote, by campaigning with the most extreme member of the Senate, my socialist opponent is telling us exactly who she is and why we must reject her radical agenda. And De La Cruz is a staunch conservative. She backs many of the policy positions of President Trump and says she wants to bring back things like the Remain in Mexico policy. And she also supports the border wall. So she contrasts that with her opponent, Vallejo, who is staunchly opposed to Trump's immigration policies and who supports abortion rights and is now campaigning with Bernie Sanders. So neither of them are making any pretense that they are moderate or appealing to the center. They are both starkly contrasting candidates, and Sanders' appearance in South Texas very much highlights that. What are Republicans' odds in this district? Well, it is favorable ground for Republicans. The Cook Political Report rates it a likely

Republican victory, but it is also a D52% on the Texans' Texas Partisan Index, so it is not to be taken for granted by either party. And like I said, Congressman Gonzalez represents the seat, but he is running in a different district after redistricting against incumbent Mayra Flores, who won in a special election. So neither De La Cruz or Vallejo carries the benefit of incumbency, and neither of them carry the benefit of a district that favors one party or the other very strongly. So this is a classic toss-up race between two political newcomers in the sense that neither of them are currently elected officials. So it is one that will likely be one of the tests for if Republicans are going to continue their trend of making gains in South Texas or if South Texas

voters will lean on their familiar support for Democrats. Certainly. Hayden, great coverage. Thank you so much. Brad, the second... Me again do you want do you want to just take a little break yes okay um the second of the notable congressional races this year is texas 34 why is it why is it such an odd situation in particular well because you have two incumbents running against each other which is not a usual how is that possible i'm glad you asked you know you know i just thought it might be worth asking so uh as hayden kind of alluded to earlier sorry i kind of stole your thunder i didn't look ahead i'm sorry i will hold a grudge for a long time uh you have texas congressional district 34 newly drawn um as all of them are after redistricting.

But Republican Myra Flores, who is the incumbent, won the special election over the summer. And so she's been in office for a few months. And then you have Vicente Gonzalez, who is currently representing Texas 15, who decided to jump ship and run for texas 34 they are i think adjacent the districts are but um they're not of the old texas 15 not much if any is in this texas 34 and so neither candidate really has the benefit of what incumbency brings being on the ballots in front of voters for a long time that they will see again the name id thing flores was on it in one special election gonzalez was on the ballot in a different district and so i that's the reason i find it notable. It's also, I think, like D60 roughly, maybe slightly more in terms of our ratings. But Republicans are putting a lot of resources sheer money, more is probably going to this one than the others.

And they want to protect the incumbent they have, Myra Flores, as recent as her incumbency is. They want to keep that seat. And especially in South Texas. So the race has gotten pretty heated. I talked about a little bit of it in the piece. So I recommend you check that out. Um, but neither candidate is really holding much back there.

They're both going at it. And, um, you know, next on Tuesday, the, let the chips fall where they may. Yeah.

We'll see. Absolutely. Thank you, Bradley Hayden. Let's talk about the third, very spicy race here. The race for Texas 28 recently got heated after a years-old issue was dredged up. Tell us about this controversial campaign contribution to Congressman Henry Cuellar. National Review ran a piece that highlighted something that happened years ago,

and they relied on reporting by the San Antonio Express News about a campaign contribution that the wife of a convicted Mexican criminal made to Congressman Cuyer's campaign during his first term in office. And the convicted criminal I referenced was convicted afterward, years later. He was not a convicted criminal at the time. And these individuals were associated with the Las Zetas drug cartel. And the Mexican individual who was later convicted was said to be a conduit or a middleman between the highest levels of the Las Zetas drug cartel and Mexican politicians. But we're talking about a $1,000 campaign contribution made by this criminal's wife to Congressman Cuellar's campaign, which the congressman said at the time, his team said, was donated to charity. The criminal himself also made a $1,500 contribution to Sheriff Martin

Cuellar, who is the congressman's brother and the sheriff of Webb County. So these two contributions were the focus of the Express News reporting more than 10 years ago, and National Review is bringing this back up. Republican Cassie Garcia, who is challenging Cuellar in Texas 28, highlighted this as evidence of corruption. She is seeking to cast him as somehow associated with the Las Vegas drug cartel because of these contributions. And she is very much leaning also on a raid of Congressman Cuellar's home by the FBI earlier this year in connection to a campaign finance investigation. He was not necessarily a suspect in that investigation, though it's possible he is. She is using all of this as a panoply of things to tell the voters that he is corrupt and deserves to be voted out of office.

What was Cuellar's response? Cuellar pointed out a couple of facts, but he said, first of all, because of the age of the story, this is something that was known long ago. This happened in his first term. He is now running for his 10th term. And he said that he reiterated that the donation was given to charity. And his campaign put out a statement in response to the National Review story and Garcia's allegations.

They said, quote, Cassie Garcia has resurfaced a 10-year-old story and launched a blatantly false ad just seven days before Election Day in a desperate attempt to smear Congressman Quayer's reputation and save her losing campaign, end quote. And he also pointed out that the individual in question, the couple in question, they also had close relationships with Governor Rick Perry and President George W. Bush, and even Senator Eddie Lucio, who's still in office and has endorsed Dan Patrick this cycle. So this is a case, a criminal case connected to the Los Adas drug cartel that touched a lot of different elected officials who had relationships with this person. They weren't just Democrats and it wasn't just Cuellar. So they were pointing that out as well. And of course, candidates, they said this at the time, but candidates can't possibly vet every single donation that is made to their campaign. Most of them have functions on their website where anyone can go, accused of a crime or not, and donate to their campaigns. So this is not proof of corruption, but something that

Garcia is linking to his candidacy. And it is always beneficial for a challenger to be able to cast their opponent as a corrupt creature of D.C., and that's a common strategy for challengers. Certainly. There's some mailers in the works as soon as that was drudged back up. Thank you, Hayden, for that coverage. Matt, we're coming back to you for some more election coverage. Numerous seats on the State Board of Education are on the ballot this election. Can you give us a quick overview of your story coming out on this race? That's right, Mackenzie. For those that don't know, the State Board of Education is a 15 member statewide agency made up of 15 elected board members from individual districts around the seat. Each district is comprised of about 1.8 million constituents, and the SBOE members are generally elected to four-year terms. However, this year with redistricting, we will have a number of them

selected to serve shorter two-year terms, and then for the remainder of the decade, they will continue on their four-year staggered terms. three seats on the SBOE that are currently held by Democrats, but are the most statistically vulnerable seats this election. In addition, polls and the Texas Partisan Index shows that Republicans are in a really strong position to retain control of not only retain control this Tuesday of the SBOE, but could potentially pick up a couple of more seats. Of course, we'll have more details about which seats and where and all the great statistics and data in our story this afternoon on the Texan. Wonderful, Matt. Thanks for covering all that for us. Certainly races that oftentimes go under the radar. So a great thing to check out and make sure that you are an informed voter before you hit the ballot box if you haven't already. Hayden, we're coming to you for the last story of the day here.

Senator Roland Gutierrez announced a bill to provide compensation to Uvalde victims. What is the outline of this legislation? At a news conference this week, Senator Gutierrez, who represents Uvalde, he's a Democrat from San Antonio, but he represents the area where the horrific murders of 21 people, including 19 children, occurred at Robb Elementary School. And he is going to file legislation to provide compensation for the families of the victims of that tragic event, as well as the families and those who were injured and others affected as well. He proposed $300 million worth of compensation and damages. He said that there will be... Bill filing opens up for lawmakers

later this month, even though session won't officially begin until Tuesday, January 10. They will be able to file bills. And in his bill, he said there will be included a proposed $7.7 million for those who were killed in the shooting, $2.1 million for those who were injured and their families, and then a quarter million dollars maximum for those who were on campus and traumatized by the shooting as well. And all of that was included in his bill. The 7.7 signifies the 77 minutes that delay before law enforcement confronted the gunman. And the 2.1 million signifies the 21 victims. And he said that's why those numbers were proposed. And then he went into some other things that were ancillary to the dollar amounts as well. Why is he seeking punitive damages against the state?

Well, as we know from the preliminary report that was published this summer, there were more than 90 state troopers and state police officers there on scene. I believe it was the second largest law enforcement presence in terms of which agencies were there. And they had, according to Gutierrez, a responsibility to act. And he used a lot of different terms that he transparently said were designed to give credence to the idea that there was negligence and that they should be held liable for this. And he believes that the state should be punished for what happened in Uvalde. And this bill is not just designed to be compensatory for the victims and their families, but it is also intended to be punitive for the state of Texas. Why can't Ufaldi victims go to court and get a judgment in their favor?

The traditional way of doing this would be to sue and to seek a judgment in favor of these victims, but because of, according to Gutierrez, because of qualified immunity and Texas tort law, the odds of that happening would be very low or non-existent. So this process of filing legislation to compensate people for a tragedy, it's not unheard of. It has happened in cases such as with 9-11. I believe there was federal legislation to compensate those who were affected by that. But it is more rare than somebody going to court and getting a judgment for something like this. He did touch on the election, so this was not just about what happened in Uvalde. He said he would focus on Uvalde during the regular session and

that his efforts next session would be committed to them. But he also said it's presumptuous to assume that Abbott will win on Tuesday and that there could be a new governor on election day. And he did not reference his Republican opponent, but as Matt brought up, he is a republican opponent um in his district so politics were not completely left out of this event but it was primarily focused on going over this 300 million dollar bill to compensate uvalde victims got it wow well we will be looking forward to the legislative session to watch so many of these issues be hashed out among the legislative members so fascinating to watch um thank you hayden for

your coverage okay gentlemen instead of tweetery this week we're going to do some election predictions just hot takes some things that we think are going to happen or just general thoughts let's just chat about the election um hayden what is your prediction slash hot take i'm not going to violate my policy of refraining from saying who I think will win. But I will say that I think Patrick is in real trouble. I think this whole school voucher thing has probably ticked off a lot of people. in his runoff with Mike Olcott made this a huge issue. And despite everything that's going on with Biden and illegal immigration and inflation and all of that, Rogers was still able to pull off a victory over Olcott in an area where there are a lot of conservatives. So if Patrick is concerned and he's on the radio saying, this is a close race, I don't believe the polls that say I'm way ahead. And with him changing course at the last minute, Collier has a point that this is a little bit of a backtrack. He's placing a limiting value on his support for school vouchers, which I'm just in a debate context. Anytime you're limiting your own stance, that's not a position of strength. That's a position of weakness in a debate. So with Patrick out there kind of trying to rein in and calm everyone down with his support for school vouchers and school choice, I think Collier is in a strong position before election day. Again, I'm not saying that Patrick is going to lose, but I think this is a competitive race, and it's more competitive than you might expect in a red state, in my opinion.

Do you think Paxton or Patrick will have the closer margin? I don't want to say which one I think will have a closer margin, but I think Paxton has done a better job of fending off the criticisms that Garza has lobbed. He's certainly more used to it. He is more used to it. He has done a very good job of dismissing, for instance, the criminal case against him. He's done a very good job of dismissing all of it as media smear. And, for instance, when he was criticized for trying trying to uh allegedly dodge this this subpoena that was being served on him he reframed it as a second amendment issue where he was trying to

protect his wife from this this unfamiliar individual that was coming to his home and i thought that was a very successful uh rebuttal and the media didn't really talk about it more after that because that was his response to that um patrick just days before the election bringing this up um that is very different than what patrick has faced because everything that that that excuse me patrick paxton everything that paxton has had to deal with is a very familiar ground for him. This radio appearance by Patrick was eyebrow raising. Yeah, certainly. Interesting takes. We like it.

Matthew, what do you got for us in terms of a hot take or a prediction come election night? Well, I hate making predictions. than a hot take i'm i'm usually wrong uh because that's it's so hard to make a prediction on election because how you you have to look past your own biases right you know and really take a neutral look and try and figure out and look past everybody else's biased opinions to really try and get a good feel for what's going on. And by the time, like, it really takes some talent to look past all the different bias and figure things out.

I'll say this, a pretty good rule of thumb in Texas elections is there's not a lot of surprises. Really? Interesting. Good surprises do happen. Yeah, surprises. I feel like in general elections, I see what you're saying. A really, really big statewide surprise.

Yeah. That's fair. I can think of one in the primary. Jim Wright in 2020. Sometimes primary surprises happen, but they're like in districts and things like that. That was a statewide race, Matt. Yeah. Which one is that?

He said Jim Wright. Oh. Yeah, that wasn't really like a really big surprise, though, because like Sitton didn't really campaign and just kind of it just happened. You know, I guess he assumed his incumbency would carry him through, which, yeah, in a primary, if you twiddle your fingers and you don't do anything, yeah, you can lose a primary. But, like, Republican versus Democrat, big time general election, you know, all that sort of stuff, there's just no surprises. That is a hot take.

That is a hot take, Matt. Especially the Jim Bridey. It's a hot take. But it's good. It a hot take but it's good it's good that's why we're talking about it brad is uh brad has an entirely different opinion about gym right which is fun that is spicy i enjoy it i mean i just think that nobody expected that and if you say you are now it's because it's with the benefit of hindsight matthew i mean sinton had how many millions of dollars in his war chest and how much did he spend not a lot of it but he spent loads more than jim wright did so i mean there's obviously a reason it happened sitting

sitting bungled it but i just i just object to the fact to, to the contention that it was not shocking. So, uh, it, it, it was, it was interesting, but it wasn't shocking. Okay. We'll agree to disagree.

That's at least a click or two down. Brad, what's your hot take? Uh, well, I mean, I already basically said, I think Abbott's going to win,

um, when discussing those, those preview pieces but i would stuff happens um i think the thing i'm really gonna uh drill down on is in the governor's race i think o'rourke will win har Harris County by a slimmer margin. I guess a better way to put this, Abbott will lose Harris County by a slimmer margin than he lost it in 2018. He lost it by six points. There's been recent polling that shows it's a lot closer. And the reason why, in my opinion, that that is notable is Harris County is the largest county

in the state. So O'Rourke needs to win that pretty substantially in order to have any shot. And he's focused a lot of his campaign on trying to cut into Republicans' advantage in rural areas. Well, if you win Harris county by two points instead of six points that's going to cut into basically any of the gains you may make if he does make any in rural texas and so we see the issue the public safety issues there that are making the county judge race very very competitive i think that same dynamic will play in to the governor's race, maybe not quite to the degree, because Beto did not have any say over Harris County's bail policies, right? statement that he made when Minneapolis was trying to nix its entire department. That is being run on loop by the Abbott campaign. And I guarantee you it's especially being focused in Harris County because those public safety issues are so huge there right now.

So I think Abbott will improve upon his loss margin from 2018 in Harris County. There's my die marker for you. Interesting. How shocked would you be if he won Harris County versus just making games? If he won? I would be shocked if he won. Would you be as shocked if Abbott won Harris County abbott won harris county as if delmoral miller won harris because i'm curious about that if there are people who will go in

yeah vote for delmoral miller for county judge and then vote for abbott for or vote for beto for governor i would be more surprised if abbott were to win yeah the county then i agree miller would uh but i think the same dynamic is at play. And maybe not quite to the degree that it is in the county judge race, because it is the localized position there. And all the other issues that are playing into this, you know, the corruption accusations, all this stuff in Hidalgo's office. But. But no, I but I can see I can see somebody going in and voting for Del Moral Miller and then leaving the governor spot blank or or voting for voting for

Beto to that too I cannot see somebody going in and voting for Lena Hidalgo and also voting for right yeah totally to me is not I mean it could happen I just don't see it very good point yeah yeah so that's something to watch that I will have a piece on things to watch on Monday morning. And this is one of them. So a plug there for you. I'm going to plug another thing on that because I am super curious to see what the margin of this is not even this is not predictions and not a hot take this is just something i'm looking at specifically that brad you and i have talked about is the margin between abbott and beto and the margin that beto versus cruz was back in 2018 i'll be very curious to know what the spread is there

they're very different both in percent and raw numbers yes um like turnout will play a huge role and everything gotta take everything with a grain of salt but even just the percentage the spread will be interesting to see um i'm very curious and those were both i mean those are midterm elections they're very different obviously with um you know trump in the white house there was the disadvantage to republicans in that cycle so it is an entirely different race i'm still very curious to see what that ends up being on election day um yeah and as of earlier this week uh maybe we'll have some more updated numbers um by the end of the week but uh texas was on track for like 36 turnout and in that in that 2018 race, it had 53% turnout. So that right there does not bode well for Democrats.

It's just an unenthusiastic year, which the enthusiasm is what drove many, many people to the polls in 2018. And there's this electricity surrounding Beto's rise. Yeah, he definitely has a lot of play in 2018. And there was this electricity surrounding Beto's rise. Yeah, he definitely has a lot of play in that. It wasn't just Donald Trump. He definitely benefited from it. But yeah. So and that version of Beto was a different one than the version of Beto on the ballot this

year. Certainly. Very interesting. Okay, folks. Well, we are nearing the end of our podcast. But for our fun topic today, I want to get on a soapbox for a little bit, and I'm inviting you boys to join me on it. We get a lot of requests each and every week to take certain articles out from behind our paywall. Now, we have the paywall in place so that folks are encouraged to subscribe. You still get one free article a month. If you come and click on our website, you'll get to read something for free before you hit the paywall.

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