The Texan Podcast - Weekly Roundup - October 25, 2024
Episode Date: October 25, 2024Show off your Lone Star spirit with a free "Remember the Alamo" hat with an annual subscription to The Texan: https://thetexan.news/subscribe/ The Texan’s Weekly Roundup brings you the la...test news in Texas politics, breaking down the top stories of the week with our team of reporters who give you the facts so you can form your own opinion. Enjoy what you hear? Be sure to subscribe and leave a review! Got questions for the reporting team? Email editor@thetexan.news — they just might be answered on a future podcast.This week on The Texan’s “Weekly Roundup,” the team discusses:Abbott's General Counsel Argues Texas Supreme Court Should Dismiss Roberson House Committee SubpoenaRobert Roberson House Committee Hearing Features Celebrities, Former Judge, Trial JurorEarly Voting Begins for 2024 General ElectionInitial GOP Early Vote Turnout in Texas Substantially Higher Than 2020 LevelsGonzalez, Flores Trade Blows in Heated Debate for South Texas Congressional SeatRepublican Harris-Davila Faces Democrat Birkholz in Competitive Williamson County House DistrictDemocratic Rep. Mihaela Plesa Faces Republican Steven Kinard in Collin County House RacePaxton Demands Federal Election Commission Issue New Rules on ActBlue's Payment MethodsSan Antonio Police Confirm Venezuelan 'Tren de Aragua' Gang Occupied Vacant ApartmentsCozen O’Connor Public Strategies - The Beltway BriefingListen for of-the-moment insider insights, framed by the rapidly changing social and...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
Transcript
Discussion (0)
That's been a big debate. Do Trump all-red voters actually exist? I can tell you, anecdotally,
I know one.
Maybe not the best sample size, considering the sports, you know, angle there, but we'll
take it. At least anecdotally, Brad knows of one Trump all-red voter that exists.
Are you saying a sample size of one isn't sufficient?
Yes. Yes, I am.
Oh.
Okay. Howdy folks. And welcome back to another episode of the weekly
roundup. I'm Mackenzie here with Brad, Mary Elise and Cameron. Howdy folks, Mary Elise and Cameron,
specifically, I want to jump to y'all. You guys were in full election mode here and you both have
a lot of exciting things you're attending this week so Mary at least we'll
start with you what do you what are you going to in Houston yes I am attending um Kamala Harris's
rally tomorrow in Houston um which should be interesting and I've been informed that there
could be a free concert that Beyonce will be attending so it should be um it should be an interesting event yeah is she attending or
is she performing and i know this is like tbd but is it rumor that she's performing or just attending
i think right now it's just attending but i wouldn't be surprised if she's showing up because
kamala harris has had some other singers come to her rallies and then they end up singing so i guess we'll find
out not it megan the stallion yes and lizzo i think i think both of those are maybe i'm wrong
i could be wrong but regardless that'll be an interesting rally to attend always interesting
when you see a kind of pop culture and politics collide and cam Cam, we have a very prominent guest coming to Austin.
Well, you said the crossover between pop culture and politics.
We have our pop culture former president coming to Austin.
He's all in one.
Yeah.
And he's going to be giving remarks to the press.
Ted Cruz is going to be joining him.
I think J.D. Vance too, right?
J.D. Vance.
So the whole gang is getting together.
The gang comes to Austin.
It's an always sunny in Philadelphia episode.
It'll be fun, though.
Interested to see what they talk about you know um if it's gonna be focused on
cruises senate race or if they're gonna be talking about the presidential race or i'm sure it'll be
all those things but uh yeah it'll be fun exciting times and Brad, not to leave you out because...
I was going to say, what the heck?
My chopped liver?
Look at my mug, Brad. Do you have any comment on my mug?
It's a
fairytale creature.
It's Bigfoot, but this is
the nexus of two of my favorite things.
Oh, I didn't notice that.
Bigfoot and Christmas.
You see this little Christmas tree he's carrying behind him?
I do.
Anyways, that's my coffee receptacle this morning.
Marylise, have we talked about Bigfoot?
I don't think we've talked about Bigfoot.
I don't think so.
Not while I've been here.
You're probably the better for it.
So we'll leave it at that.
You're not going to ask me where I'm going this weekend?
Brad, where are you going this weekend?
I'm going to San Antonio to see Billy Joel and Sting.
Are you really?
Yeah, yeah.
With your mom, right?
Yeah.
She's coming to sound.
She's a big Billy Joel fan.
Yeah.
We're going down there.
As soon as he plays Piano piano man i need to know because i that's a song me and a couple of
my friends just we uh play every time we road trip so i think you should definitely let me know
great song i hope he touches all the hits including we didn't start the fire which i
know every word okay yeah if that happens i need to figure out how to contact your mother because she will
need to video you singing every song and losing your mind because that would just bring so much
joy okay you'll have to bribe her we'll see what she will we'll see what we can do we'll see what
we can do um okay well looking at this we have so much to get into, you guys, so we're going to go ahead and hop to the news.
Cameron, this case, this Robert Robertson case has pretty much consumed so much of your time the last couple of weeks,
and it's certainly become the most talked about issue in the state at this point.
Tell us what's been going on. Give us the update. We have a lot of plot points to update folks on this week. Yeah, for those who have been following our reporting on this, this goes back almost a month now where we saw a letter that was published by around 80 different Texas House members signed on to this letter calling into question some of the evidence that was used to convict Robert Robertson.
Back in 2003, he was convicted of capital murder and sentenced to death for the death of his two-year-old daughter, Nikki Curtis. And over the course of his sentence, he and his attorneys have continually attempted to appeal his death sentence, but without success. You know, they've even appealed all the way up to
the U.S. Supreme Court. But he was scheduled to be executed on, I believe it was the 17th, last week to the day.
So there was quite a lot of conversations that were going on.
The House Criminal Jurisprudence Committee held a hearing. They initially submitted a subpoena to have him appear in the committee so that he could give testimony about his conviction.
And this was a very unique legal maneuver, something we haven't really seen at all across the country, especially here in Texas, this subpoena of a
death row inmate to appear in a House committee hearing. It is unprecedented. As much as I hate
to use the term, it is unprecedented. Yeah, so this caused a big stir within the Texas legislature. All levels of elected officials sort of put different motions
in front of different levels of our legal system.
We actually saw the Texas Supreme Court,
they put a stay on the execution because of this unprecedented unprecedented nature of the legal
maneuver we saw a request for a denial of this motion from the house committee that was filed
by the texas attorney general where they argued that ro that Robertson's appearance in the committee
lacked jurisdiction by use of the subpoena.
Like I mentioned, the subpoena was upheld by the Supreme Court of Texas, and Robertson's
execution was stayed while a district court could review this unique legal maneuver. And the day before Roberson was actually set to appear in the committee,
questions began to arise about him being physically present in Austin at the Capitol to give testimony.
There was conversations regarding his diagnosed autism,
where his attorneys were arguing him giving testimony virtually would
not be feasible. The Texas Attorney General put out a statement in regard to the feasibility of
transporting Roberson to the Capitol and how there were public safety concerns for that aspect because he is a death row
inmate. He did not end up appearing in person or virtually during this hearing that was scheduled,
but Representative Joe Moody did indicate that the committee is weighing options for how to have roberson provide testimony jeff leach even suggested that the committee could take a field trip to hear testimony from roberson
during this hearing though it did take place we saw testimony invited testimony
from a number of celebrities including dr phil We saw the novelist John Grisham,
who's actually a member of the board for the Innocence Project, who has been heavily involved
in Roberson's case. He gave testimony. An interesting piece of testimony that was given, invited testimony, was from Terry Compton, who was a former juror during the trial, who during this committee hearing said that, House members were focusing on how the state
during the trial used a shaken baby syndrome argument as the main justification for the
conviction. And they have had medical experts and legal experts come in and make attempts to cast doubt on the shaken baby syndrome that was used to convict Roberson. talked about the issues regarding the appeals process that the current Criminal Court of
Appeals has taken with how they viewed Roberson's case. So there was lots of information that was
presented by this House Committee. And another interesting development that came out around the same time was Governor Gray
Gabbitt has been silent throughout this process but he his general counsel
actually submitted an argument where they were saying where this argument was
laying the groundwork for how the House Committee overstepped its legal
jurisdiction with the subpoena of Robertson this was
really the first time that we heard anything come out of the governor Greg
yeah Greg Abbott's camp here and so it's just been very interesting to see
because one of the arguments that Abbott's general counsel presented was
I'll just read here quote nowhere does the Constitution even impliedly suggest
must less expressly permit as the separation of power powers clause
requires that the legislative branch can cut it in again at the end there is no reason to delay so it was
interesting to finally see Abbott or his general counsel deliver this argument
and you know we've had even further development since then yeah absolutely
can I jump in on this Brad Go ahead, Brad. Yeah, obviously the most immediate issue here is this man's life and whether he's guilty or innocent, right?
But this debate has a lot of follow-ups to it, including especially the separation of powers fight and what this entails.
Is this a legit maneuver, the subpoena? Are the fears about the Texas legislature basically overruling any
execution down the road? Are those legit or not? You know, the court has punted on massive questions
of separation of powers before, specifically on the Texas Disaster Act related to the governor.
But now they have this case before them, and they can't really avoid this, I don't think.
This is not something that's really going to go away like COVID did.
So this is something that the court's going to have to grapple with,
and I think we saw in the Evan Young kind of concurring opinion
that they're going to grapple with that.
Where that shakes out, I don't know,
but this is like straight out of Schoolhouse Rock.
The differences between the three branches,
which one's predominant, which legislature is
predominant, uh, just ask James Madison. But, um, that doesn't mean that the legislature is not
violating its, uh, authority here. Right. So, um, on top of the greatly consequential
debate over guilt or innocence, uh, you know, a man's life and justice for a dead child
you have this a profound legal fight yeah a fight over civics essentially yeah and you wrote up a
great newsletter and fourth reading exploring this so i encourage everyone to go read that, but the latest update that we have, because putting the separation of powers issue aside just for a moment,
the controversy surrounding this case is really about this shaken baby syndrome and how the House committee has emphasized how the state
used shaken baby syndrome as the main justification for conviction. And what we saw this week was
actually the Attorney General's Office released a number of documents that cast doubt on the pure speculation of shaken
baby syndrome that was used by the state because as a part of these documents
that was released included the original autopsy report and also a sort of timeline of how Roberson allegedly has changed his story
through the years about how he handled not just reporting the initial incident but how he was involved in the incident itself so I'll just read
a little bit here that as part of this press release from the Attorney
General's office they say they they did this for the reason quote to correct
falsehoods amplified by a coalition interfering with the capital punishment proceedings.
And they allege in some of these documents how Roberson had, quote, a history of violently
abusing his daughter. They also, in this press release, include information about how witnesses
testified during the trial that Roberson would, quote, whip his daughter when she cried.
Also included in this release from the Attorney General's Office is a graphic description of a police report claiming that Roberson admitted to a cellmate that he, quote, sexually assaulted and physically abused his daughter. So this is sort of two sides of this story coming to light now.
I think much of the public has gripped on to the shaken baby syndrome and much of the House
Committee has focused on that. That's been the focus of conversation. But with the Attorney General
releasing these documents, I think it sort of paints the broader picture of everything that
was involved in the conviction and telling the full story about why this conviction actually
came out the way that it did. We did see Representative Joe Moody release a
statement on the after the release of these documents where he characterized
it as quote a collection of exaggerations, misrepresent misrepresentations
and full on untruths completely divorced from fact in context. So Moody really standing strong on his convictions that the information that him and his committee have presented
is what should be taken as the truth of the matter here. They said that they do intend to have a more full response
published today that might undermine some of the claims made by the Office of the Attorney General.
So this is just further complicating the real issue at hand where it's guilt or innocence.
There is a child that is dead at the end of all this.
And what to do next is really unclear at this point, not just on the facts of the case,
but the facts of the separation
of powers issues that Brad has talked about. So this is a case that is going to stay in the news
cycle, continue to be debated for not just the next couple of weeks, I'm sure for the next year,
two years as the legislature is going to convene. For the 89thth session i'm sure we're going to see not just the
separation of powers issue addressed but also the junks junk science writ that was passed a few years
ago that addressed some of the issues that the house committee has brought up in terms of if if debunked science was used to convict someone in court,
they can challenge that conviction.
So they've talked about clarifying those rules.
So we're going to see this case and the issues at hand
extend into the legislative session.
And, yeah, just continue following my Twitter and continue following the
Texan because we'll keep putting up new stuff as things come out.
If you're looking for a political podcast that goes beyond the headlines,
check out the Beltway Briefing. I'm Howard Schweitzer, CEO of Cozen O'Connor Public Strategies. Every week on the Beltway
Briefing, our team of former Republican and Democratic presidential appointees,
Capitol Hill veterans, and political advocates shares behind-the-scenes perspective that cuts
through the noise. If you want the inside scoop, subscribe now to the Beltway Briefing here
or wherever you get your podcasts. And Cameron has done a phenomenal job of covering all of this
from start to finish. I remember when he first pitched the story and said, hey, by the way,
there's this guy Robert Robertson, we should probably report on this. And that was before
anything had snowballed at all, right? I mean, this has certainly consumed so much of the news cycle in Texas and taken a lot
of the air nationally too. And I would just encourage folks to go read his coverage and,
you know, fair warning, there are very graphic details contained in the articles and the autopsy,
certainly worth understanding considering the gravity of the
situation. And like the boys have said, there is a two-year-old child that is no longer here
as a result of this case. And so this is certainly something that is horrific and difficult. And
just beware when you go and read these pieces of the, of the contents of everything. And certainly there's a lot I left out.
Um,
you know,
I talked for almost 15 minutes about this and there's a lot that I didn't
cover.
Um,
and I,
I'd encourage people to go read the reporting that we've done on this and
there's going to be more stuff that comes out
that is going to further complicate the issues that have already been presented like
someone brad has alerted me to is um what what's the radio host's name mark davis mark davis has
been covering this quite a bit and he uh week actually had on Nikki Curtis's older brother
who gave some very interesting insight into Robert Robertson the person before he was convicted
I highlighted one of those aspects on my x feed if people are interested in checking that out um because you know there's things that are presented
to us about this case in the media things that are presented to us um by the house committee
but ultimately it's we it's it's not going to become clear. Yeah, it's it's a very complex case like I there's there's going to be something that happens eventually in January because there is a stay that expires after 90 days and that 90 days is up in January. So we might have an answer by then, but right now
it's just going to be more and more information coming out and hopefully people can try to sort
through it themselves. But the legislative branch, the governor, the Supreme Court,
they're going to have to make a decision on this pretty soon. And I'll certainly, just like Cameron
did, plug our newsletters.
Brad wrote about the constitutionality and separation of powers at play here in all of this.
In fourth reading this week, it comes out on Tuesdays.
Cameron will have his own newsletter relating to all of this, and specifically the death penalty on Monday.
So go subscribe to The Texan, and we'll continue to provide essentially just what's
presented to us, right? What's coming out, what's being presented by lawmakers, by elected officials
throughout this entire hearing in this process and updates as we receive them. So go check it
out at the Texan and make sure to subscribe. Cameron, thank you for breaking all that down
for us and continuing to follow such a difficult story. Mary Elise, let's pivot here. Early voting has begun in Texas. Give us the details. Yeah, kind of a shift of
topics, but the 2024 general election has begun in Texas. Early voting kicked off about three days
ago on October 21st. So in addition to the presidential election, Texas has begun voting across the
ballot for 39 federal positions, including one U.S. Senate seat and 38 of Texas's congressional
seats in the U.S. House, plus multiple statewide elections, including 24 state senators and 135
state representatives. And after the presidential election, definitely the most
high-profile race in Texas is the U.S. Senate race between Senator Ted Cruz and Congressman
Colin Allred, which Brad has covered extensively. There's also a few noteworthy congressional races
happening. So there's in the 15th congressional district between Congresswoman Monica de la Cruz and Democrat Michelle Vallejo.
And then in the 34th between Congressman Vincent Gonzalez and then the former Congresswoman Myra Flores.
So the article also has a whole list of seats in the Texas Supreme Court that are also in the ballot and just other notable races across the state.
There's a whole list there.
And the Secretary of State does provide a personalized ballot by county, which we link in the story.
You can go on there and type in your county and get yourself a personalized ballot.
See what's going to what you'll be voting for exactly.
And then early voting will end on Friday, November 1st, and then polls will open again four days later on November 5th, Election Day.
They open at 7 a.m. So take advantage of that and definitely go check out the article because there's links and other helpful information you should know.
Absolutely.
And Mary, this is a great job of compiling that all for folks.
They can find that easily.
We have a list of voting resources in all 254 counties as well.
We have all sorts of election resources at the Texan, so check that out.
Mary Elise, thank you for your coverage.
Brad, let's stick on this early vote topic.
You received reports that Republican early vote turnout is significantly higher compared to 2020.
Give us those details. Yeah, so caveat all this with
the fact that it is two days through early voting, Monday and Tuesday, but that is a massive
amount of the overall early vote. We see the turnout generally during early vote bookended
on each side, the first two days, the last two days days first two days as people are the ones really excited to vote go cast their ballot see long lines on those
days and we see long lines on the last days as people try and get to the polls
after having put it off for a week and a half or so so take that for what it's
worth but that said through two days of early voting,
more than 1.9 million voters have cast ballots
across the state, either in person or by mail.
That's roughly 10% turnout so far.
So break that down into partisan modeling
and you have in 2024 that total amount is modeled at 40 47 percent
republican compared to 34 percent democratic now four years ago in 2020
republicans put Republicans put a lot of criticism and concern on the idea of voting early, especially by mail, but early at all.
There's a lot of push for Republicans to go turn out on Election Day and make that your when you go run or when you go vote.
But so that's what happened in context. That is not the same this time around. So in 2020,
the percentage breakdown was 37% GOP, 47% Democratic. So they basically have flipped.
And that's a very good sign for Republicans. Ross Hunt of Hunt Research, he's the one that sent me the data with his modeling.
And the modeling is based on not just primary vote history, but demographic breakdown, which way they
kind of lean partisan-wise. It's just a projection. So, you know, there's error in that, of course.
But these data guys do a lot of work, and they usually have it pretty close to right.
At the margins, it may shift.
So Ross, his model, his electorate model has the 2024 Texas electorate nine points more Republican than in 2020 through two days,
projecting the GOP to have a plus 8.73% advantage so far.
So that's a big shift.
That's a massive shift.
Ross told me, quote,
we're seeing a significant GOP surge to vote early.
It's too early to see if this is just front-loading the vote
or if it's a real pattern showing larger Republican turnout.
I lean towards the latter.
So obviously
this is possible, this is just cannibalizing the Election Day vote for
Republicans or what would be the traditional Election Day vote, but it may
also be significant gains. And for example, Ross told me that in 2020 the combination of
new young Hispanic
voters so voters that fit that
those
three categories
new voters being those who have not cast a ballot
in the last five general elections
young voters
obviously and then Hispanics
they in 2020 they went
to Democrats at a two to one clip that's flipped entirely it went to Democrats at a two to one clip that's
flipped entirely it's now Republicans at a two to one clip now obviously it's early who knows how
long if that if that holds but you know that's showing significant gains for Republicans among a
constituency they didn't previously have so very fascinating stuff in these early returns, but yeah, we'll see how it
pans out later. Absolutely. And I think it's fair noting as well that, of course,
this is the first two days, but this is the only data we have at this point. So it's exciting. It's
fun to see, and it is indicative of something. So let's see what that is, right? And we already have,
we're recording Thursday, we already have information coming out about day three of
early voting so we'll keep folks updated on all of this because there's a lot going on
and certainly information trickling out day by day and brad can you quickly explain what you mean by
a potential cannibalization of votes like explain what that means before we head into how mail ballots are breaking down certainly so
campaigns the parties you know telling their voters uh strategically either go vote early
go vote on election day cannibalization would be basically just moving the voters that you would
get on election day as, for example, Republicans,
pushing them to vote early and just basically moving that ball earlier in the process,
banking the votes earlier than you would already have them.
So it's not really, if that's the case, it's not really changing anything in terms of the
larger partisan makeup of how these elections are going to shake out.
But it is changing the voter habits in terms of when they vote.
So that's why the hesitation to claim, oh, this is massive GOP gains,
because we don't know that for sure yet.
There are some signs of that. But it might just be advancing, moving upward the Republican votes that would have already come on Election Day.
Yeah, and is this going to relate to how voting totals are going to be reported?
Like if people are voting early, those votes are going to be counted earlier, so those results are going to show up earlier?
Yeah, they'll show up early on.
They'll be the first returns shown across the state.
On election night, almost right after polls close,
usually probably a half hour after polls close,
the early vote has already been totaled and it's loaded up to the websites and published first.
Then, of course, we have the waiting game for election day returns to come in and be processed.
So, yeah, that could give Republicans a boost in the early vote if this holds.
But it's not necessarily indicative of a larger change in the election.
Well, the reason I bring it up is just to prepare people who are listening
or who watch these vote totals as they roll in on Election Day,
like how the numbers can flip back and forth.
And it might seem like, why is that happening?
Well, it's because some votes, some people are coming out way early and those vote totals are coming out earlier than some people are coming out the day of.
And those vote totals might be tallied later in the night. And so it could flip the numbers just to prepare people for how those numbers go up and down.
Brad, can you break down how mail
ballots are trending in this? So this is another good sign for Republicans. Democrats always
dominate the mail ballot voting. They stress that to their voters constantly. Now in Texas,
of course, you can only vote by mail if you're over 65 or disabled, or if you're out of your home county during the early vote election day period.
So maybe like college kids, if they go to a school outside of their home county.
Yeah, that is part of it, yeah.
But usually, for the most part, it's over 65 and disabled.
So Democrats stress that constantly um in 2020 they had a 15
point advantage on that on that breakdown partisan breakdown in in uh hunt's modeling
but that's been halved so far through two days this year.
And so, you know, that tells you Republicans have stemmed the bleeding on this from a partisan breakdown-wise.
Now, I think an important caveat to this is Derek Ryan, another Republican data analyst, he does these reports, recommends subscribing to them if you're interested in this stuff, puts them out every day during early voting.
He said that mail balloting is substantially down from multiple of the last elections.
So 2020 is a bit of an anomaly because of COVID.
So take that out of it. The 2016 election had 507,000 mail ballot votes
through two days. And this year so far, it's only 193,000. So less than half.
What do you think attributes to that? I don't know. I really don't know. Interesting.
You know, you could say less enthusiasm for Democrats because they're the ones that they're still critical of voting by mail
because of election um election concerns yeah so i think that it's probably some of both
there in texas but overall i'm not not entirely sure that's just my guess yeah so
can you also talk about south texas because i think that's
where so many folks have their eye on this election and in the last several elections
right this is the hotbed we're looking at how demographics are shifting specifically when it
comes to general elections walk us through what this modeling says about south texas sure so
hunt in his modeling he separates south texas is large includes san antonio down to the valley corpus christi
i think it might even include el paso um so it's very large he splits it up into two he splits it
up into san antonio and then everything else so among the san antonio metropolitan areas
rating here the 2024 electorate is 13 points more republican sorry 11 points more republican than it
was four years ago um it went from a d plus seven in 2020 through the first two days to r plus four
so that's a pretty big shift in san antonio and that probably bodes well, at least right now, for the specifically two House races that are highly contested in that county.
In the rest of South Texas, the modeling went from D plus 24 years ago to D plus 14 this year.
Wow.
So that's a six-point gain for Republicans just on the partisan breakdown perspective.
And these are people that are registered
Democrat or Republican?
No one's registered in Texas.
It's based on
primary history, demographic
breakdown, projections
on the partisan leaning of those
demographics.
It's more complicated than that.
And of course, as I said
earlier, may have some error, but generally it's pretty spot on. So, you know, El Paso is heavily
Democratic, so that's going to skew it more left. You know, you might have some more the valley is still democratic territory but the republicans
are making substantial gains there so like you know if you isolated just the valley
you'd probably have it probably would be closer to even probably still favor democrats but not like
d14 i think el paso is probably skewing things quite a bit there, as are certain other parts of South Texas.
But South Texas is still Democratic territory.
The last thing I'll touch on is that on turnout, internal GOP projections that I've heard estimate total turnout to reach around 12.5 million. If that comes true, the total turnout would be about on par with the 2020 level,
which was two-thirds, 66%, 67%.
Hunt told me he thinks that's probably a bit high.
He sees it coming in between 12 million and 12.3 million,
so the turnout percentage wouldn't drop by that much but you know regardless we'll we'll see probably a record turnout in the number
of raw voters I think how that breaks down percentage wise varies but it's
clearly people are motivated to vote we have 1.9 million people already having
cast ballots well I'm as
of Tuesday after Tuesday I'm interested to see the outcomes here regarding if
people are gonna vote down ticket the same as they vote for the presidential
race because are we gonna see Trump voters but then they vote for Democratic
candidates about at the bottom of the ticket, or
they're Kamala voters, and they vote Republican down ticket. You know, that's an interesting
sort of dynamic at play. Are we going to, you know, with the president and the Senate race,
two very spotlighted races, you know, we could see Trump, all red voters, know we could see trump all red voters and we could see harris cruz voters
you know that's that's been a big debate do trump all red voters actually exist i can tell you
anecdotally i know one and i'm pretty sure he is he voted against cruz because of the whole
sports curse thing but um there is one at least so we'll see if it comes in and in any you know significant
manner but yeah does exist yeah maybe not the best sample size uh considering the sports you know
angle there but we'll take it at least anecdotally brad knows of one trump all-red voter that exists
are you saying a sample size of one isn't sufficient? Yes.
Interesting. Okay. Let's pivot to some actual races that we're watching here. Brad, we're
going to stick with you. There's a very high profile race in the Valley. It's a rematch in
the 34th congressional district. What's your read on the race so far? So it is a rematch between
Democrat incumbent Vicente Gonzalez and Republican challenger Mayra Flores.
She is a former congresswoman.
She held the seat for like six months.
Gonzalez defeated her in 22 last cycle after he moved congressional districts.
So, yeah, we have a rematch here.
And it's been pretty intense pretty intense they've been throwing
a lot of punches at each other the the NRCC is coming in we're seeing the
biological men males and female sports issue at play quite a bit
the the pair have grappled over the border it's a border district of course so overall though
i think flores is a bit behind the eight ball just based on the partisan breakdown of the district i
think it's if i recall d57 58 so that's a pretty difficult margin to overcome in one cycle um you know i would if i were betting
on this i would not bet on flores winning the seat however in 22 she did outperform
the partisan rating of the district at the time i think she about halved it so what year was this 22 22 yeah what was the big issue at the time in 22
border of course um the economy yeah probably same sort of stuff that yeah it hasn't changed
that much you know the big the big change we've seen is this biological males and female sports
and i think a different twist on abortion.
Abortion is still an issue, but it's a different twist this time around.
So, yeah, it's largely the same stuff.
And they debated last week.
I went through and, you know, I transcribed some of their responses on the border,
on the sports issue, on abortion.
So you can check it out in the piece there.
But, yeah, these two candidates really haven't changed.
They haven't changed at all, really, since last time.
Well, if the individual candidates haven't changed, has the electorate changed?
Well, that's the question.
If you're to take the South Texas returns that I mentioned above on early vote,
it would indicate, yes, they have.
Is it enough to flip the script?
I don't know.
But things are changing, of course.
And, you know, these wedge issues are working.
You know, when you have Colin Allred give a direct-to-camera response to these sports ads, you know it's
working behind the scenes. And that reflects everything I heard before this really came
out and hit the ground of it being the biggest mover of undecideds, particularly on Fave
Unfave against Allred or any democrat who voted so so it's the issues have
evolved not the electorate has you know sort of their the demographics have changed of the
electorate is it just there are these new niche issues that have more of an importance i think
some of both okay yeah i mean you have new voters coming in who haven't voted before with new priorities and new outlooks.
You know, Republicans are banking heavily on young males who traditionally almost never vote coming out and voting against Democrats because they're on mostly cultural issues.
Right. mostly cultural issues. Then you have Hispanics being targeted by Republicans
politically for
on the economy,
on the border.
They're banking on that.
Whether it works is an open
question, but they're seeing something
there. Otherwise, they wouldn't be
spending their money on this.
Same for the Democrats on abortion.
That's huge. There. And same for the Democrats on abortion. You know, that's huge.
You know, there's a rhyme to the reason that they're doing this.
And so they see their internal polling.
And it's just a question of which outweighs which.
Yeah.
And I'd encourage folks, Brad wrote on a very heated debate between Gonzalez and Flores.
That was very interesting. So
I'd certainly go read those details, especially if you are in this district. It gives great insight
into the candidates and what issues they're going head to head on right now. Brad, thank you for
your coverage. Mary Elise, we're going to come to you. House District 52 is among the battleground
districts this election, specifically in the Texas House. Tell us more about it. Yes. So State Representative Caroline Harris-DeVilla is running against her Democratic
challenger, Jenny Burt Coles, in the general election. And this district, HD 52, House District
52, has been targeted by both sides of the aisle because they both see it as grounds for a potential
win. And this is because Williamson County has a rapidly growing population,
and it appears to be shifting a bit closer to purple.
And this huge population growth happened right after a billion-dollar Samsung facility
planted its roots in Williamson County in the town of Taylor.
And then that sparked a zoning fight
and caused the district to flip from a blue to red majority. After the 2022 election, HG 52
has maintained a Republican leaning of R 55%. And that's according to the Texas Partisan Index.
And that was when Harris DeVilla first won her position as the
district's representative in 2022. So I spoke to her and she said she seems skeptical that the
district is even a toss-up. She said, everyone, and I quote, everyone moving to HD 52 values safety
and security, keeping taxes low, and supporting our local businesses and schools. These are the values that Republicans
have championed and will continue to uphold. I also spoke to Burke-Holes, and she said that as
far as HG52 goes, overwhelmingly the voters of the district are concerned, in her opinion, about the
lack of public school funding and underfunded mandates and reproductive freedom, so abortion
access.
Burkholz also touched upon the fact that, when speaking to her, that Harris-DeVilla is pro-school choice, which is obviously one of the hot-button issues for Texas in this election and the upcoming legislative session.
It's worth noting that for Governor Greg Abbott to achieve his plan for Texas school choice in the upcoming legislative session, he's going to need as many Republicans in the House who vote in favor of it.
So someone like Harris DeVilla is an important, you know, she's pro school choice, so she would be an important win for him.
So there's all the details of that race.
It's going to be an interesting one to watch.
And so you can check out all the details in the actual article.
Absolutely. Definitely go check it out. Williamson County is certainly a hotbed of election activity
as particularly in the last few cycles. And this cycle is no different. So go read Mary
Elise's coverage there. And you're so right about school choice. We need, you know, to see what happens there. And Abbott is very keen on keeping those Republicans who voted for school
choice in the House. Cameron, let's come to you. House District 70. This is a very much a
battleground district in North Texas. Tell us about the two candidates there. Yeah, located in
Collin County, it's experienced a rapid demographic change from recent years,
and there's been a lot invested in the outcome of this HD70 race. It's rated D52, so very much
a purple district that could be seen as a potential flip for Republicans. But this is a battle between the incumbent state representative
Mihaela Pleasa and Republican challenger Steve Kennard. CBS Texas actually sat down with both
these candidates, and I watched both these interviews to try and get a better sense of
what they're going to be bringing to this race and it was very interesting.
Plessa made note during her interview that she said, quote, this district was drawn to protect two incumbent Republicans.
And she was asked about Abbott's previous comments about how the district could flip
Republican and Plessa retorted with, bring it.
So it seems like she's very up for the challenge she has
really been a more progressive member in the texas house and she really
got a name for herself by using points of order motions during the 88th regular session to
really scuttle some legislation related to voter registration information so she has made a name
for herself for being such a young member and steve canard he's really been involved since he
has won the republican nomination he's been involved with the Reform Caucus regarding the Texas House Speaker race
and really trying to up his name, ID, and presence with this involvement with already elected members.
And when he sat down with CBS Texas, he said, quote,
fundamentally, Collin County wants a pro-family, pro-liberty kind of candidate. He wants to prioritize border security, talked a lot about the crisis at the
southern border. And, you know, he's really emphasized school choice and really the idea of public education and this idea of decentralization.
He has previously worked with Bitcoin and cryptocurrency,
so that sort of messaging playing into other aspects of issues that he's talked about. And leading into the primary election, Playsa, she's raised $661,000 and spent $458,000,
while Kennard's raised $127,000 and spent $71,000.
So lots of money coming into this district for both these candidates.
And with it being rated very much right down the middle at
D52%, you know, could be a race people are going to be watching to see if it can flip. So very
interesting. And this is one of those races where it will impact the speaker's race, right? This could be, you know, a swap for Republicans. And if these early voting numbers turn out to be consistently seen throughout early voting and Election Day with Republicans coming out in droves, it'll be very interesting to see if we see this Republican heading to the House and replacing a Democrat. School choice goes into this, right? This is one of those races that's very key for Republicans when it comes to the legislative session and
being able to pass certain very difficult and heavy lifting policy issues across the finish
line here. So we'll keep an eye on that, Cameron. Thanks for your coverage. Mary Elise, we've got
two stories from you and we'll head to our tweeter here. Texas Attorney General sent a letter to the
FEC, the Federal Election Commission, about a Democratic fundraising organization. Tell us about it.
Yes, before I tell you about it real quick, I just wanted to correct.
I said that the growth for HD52 caused the switch from blue to red, but I just wanted to clarify that the redistricting caused HD52 to flip from blue to red.
So just a quick correction there. Yes,
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sent a petition to the Federal Election Commission, FEC,
and he demanded that it close certain loopholes to prevent this Democratic fundraising operation,
Act Blue, from allegedly participating in illicit activity, which he has been investigating since December
2023.
He first began looking into ActBlue after concerns were raised that a large number of
suspicious donations were being made through the platform through ActBlue by unidentified
donors who had allegedly labeled their identity as other unaware individuals.
Paxton joined a coalition of 19 Republican state attorneys in this ongoing criminal investigation into ActBlue by way of millions of small dollar donations using these prepaid cards under the names of people who didn't authorize the payment. And Paxson's petition
recommends certain regulations to prevent this from happening. One of them is that he suggests
requests eliminating prepaid cards as an acceptable form of payment and implementing
procedures that would ensure that the identity provided by a donor entirely matches information
that the donor's card issuer has on file about that donor. And in the petition, Paxton alleges
that certain donations under the names of people who have denied doing so are being made in such
high volume that regardless of investigation, he says, it strains credibility to believe that
they're being made by the persons whose names are provided by the contributor. And he concluded his
petition to the FEC just saying, I'm calling on the FEC to immediately begin rulemaking to secure
elections for many criminal actors
exploiting these vulnerabilities. So this will be an interesting one to keep an eye on,
see what the FEC's response is, and lots of news around the election. So this will be interesting.
Absolutely. And Attorney General Paxton certainly making a lot of these moves as we head into
election season. And the last month, we've seen a flurry of these kinds of moves. So we'll keep
an eye on this one specifically.
Let's pivot here, Mary Lee's off election coverage for a second.
You spoke with the San Antonio Police Department
about this specific gang that we've covered plenty at the Texan
and their activity in the city of San Antonio.
Tell us about it. Tell us about this gang.
Yes. So I spoke with the San Antonio Police Department,
and they confirmed that members of the Venezuelan gang, Trende Ragua, took over certain vacant
apartments in San Antonio. And this was in early October. But there are unconfirmed reports of
gang members occupying up to four complexes. The police department reported, and I quote,
on October 5th, multiple law
enforcement agencies conducted an operation at the Palacia apartments in San Antonio and arrested
19 people, including four members of TDA criminal gang who had taken over vacant apartments and
were engaged in illicit activities. And the Daily Mail reported a few days ago that TDA gang members had taken over four apartment complexes after squatting in the Palacio apartments for the prior five to six months.
And they allege that they've been renting units to fellow illegal aliens and using the space as a spot for human trafficking, prostitution or drug deals.
And the police department responded to this and other online
speculations. They said they are aware of recent social media posts regarding alleged gang takeovers
of other apartment complexes in San Antonio. But they said at this time, we have no credible
information to support this information. And just two days before the early arrest in October in San Antonio that I mentioned previously,
the two days after that, the Texas Department of Public Safety announced the arrest of one TDA
member in Houston, actually, with the last name Cova. He was a 32-year-old illegal alien from
Venezuela, and he's now in custody at the Brazoria County Jail.
And allegedly, Cova was recruiting middle schoolers to join the gang, which is an interesting
thing to note. And to back this all up, about a month ago, Governor Greg Abbott
signed a proclamation declaring the specific group, this gang, to be a foreign terrorist organization.
And currently, he is offering a $5,000 reward for any information on suspected TDA members that have been involved in criminal activity. So hopefully his steps will help decrease their
activity in Texas. But until then, we'll be covering it and watching it closely.
Absolutely.
Thank you, Mary Elise.
Let's move on to the Twittery section, guys.
It's about time.
Brad, it's been a while since we chatted.
What do you got for your Twittery this week?
Yeah, I've just been sitting here in the dunce corner.
I have, well, no reaction to that.
That's unfortunate.
Awkward.
So in one of these contested Bexar County seats,
specifically HG 121, you have Republican Mark LaHood against Democrat Laurel Swift.
That covered the debate a week or two ago you can read about that
on the on the texan.news but what came about this week was retiring san antonio state rep
steve allison retiring of course because lahood defeated him in the um in the primary this year. He is endorsing Swift, the Democrat, against LaHood, the Republican.
So Allison, of course, the Republican, he voted against, or voted to strip education
savings accounts from the omnibus bill last November.
And that sparked the Abbott-funded primary against him,
including from, or specifically here from LaHood.
So Allison told Quorum Reports in this,
I'm supporting and voting for her as the better and more qualified candidate
and encouraging others to do the same.
Obviously, you know, some will argue this is just, you know, spoiled grapes grapes, sour grapes, that's the term.
Sour grapes.
And others will argue that Allison, of course, would side with the person who's against education savings accounts,
vouchers, whatever you want to call them, against the person who is,
since that was the reason he was primary in the first place.
Regardless, you know, LaHood's team is sweating,
but I wouldn't put them in the same camp as Lujan,
the district next door, which is very much a dead-even split district.
Lujan still has an advantage, partisan breakdown-wise.
I think he's likelier to win on election night than Lujan is.
They might both win, they might both lose, I don't know.
But I think he's more likely to win.
So we'll see if Allison's endorsement holds any weight.
He's been in the seat since former Speaker Joe Strauss retired.
So he wasn't in there for a long time.
But the district is a pretty moderate district.
And Allison reflected that.
LaHood, who used to be a Democrat, depending on your perspective, either reflects that or doesn't reflect that.
So, you know, it's probably a mix of a few things that Allison decided to do this.
Absolutely.
Very spicy stuff.
I always love this kind of – it's just so different being on this side of it and reporting on all of it. I love the spice of these kind of cross-party endorsements and grudges held after a primary.
It is fascinating stuff.
It's so fun.
Also, Brad, I did not mean to leave you hanging.
I just didn't understand what you said.
I forget what I said, so I'm not going to rehash it.
I'll listen to the podcast tomorrow and find out.
You can roll back the tape. You can roll back the tape.
I'll roll back the tape.
And this will be a non-issue once I'm back in the office.
I'll be able to hear all your snarky comments in person.
So praise the Lord for that.
Cameron, let's go to you.
What you got? in Sam Marcos is getting a huge archive of Cormac McCarthy material I don't know
if anyone else is a Cormac McCarthy fan I'm a I read Blood Meridian the road I
haven't read his other works but no country for old men he wrote um and that was
great movie fantastic movie but yeah the texas state university is getting this uh they acquired
36 boxes filled with mccarthy's private journals photos correspondence manuscripts of unpublished
novels and research materials what school is this texas
state university in san marcos so i just thought that was interesting for anyone who's a cormac
mccarthy fan um have you mckenzie or mary lease are you guys cormac McCarthy fans? Have you read any of his books?
I haven't.
Not very familiar with them.
Like, now I want to.
Not really up their alley.
Okay.
Brad makes a lot of assumptions, Mary-Lise, about what might be up there. Oh, are you into brutal descriptions of Indians scalping Texans and vice versa.
They're very brutal novels.
Maybe that wasn't quite an unfair generalization to make.
We'll have to do some research, Mary-Lise, and find out if we can stomach it for the plot
and the story. I wouldn't start with Blood Meridian if you're going to pick up
one of his novels. Probably start with Blood Meridian if you're going to pick up one of his novels.
Probably start with The Road.
The Road.
Okay.
That's a good start.
That's a more gentle introduction to his work.
This is the start of the Texans Book Club.
Ooh.
Yeah.
We could do that.
New podcast?
I found that ever since taking this job, I've read so much less because I read all day.
I read so much less than I used to, which is really sad.
I guess I just read for a living instead of reading for fun.
But Brad, do you agree?
You did the same thing.
Have we talked about that?
I don't know.
Yeah.
I have many books piled on my nightstand and dresser that I have cracked open and then just let linger.
Yeah.
It's sad.
I wish I was more into reading than I am because I see books that I want to read and I buy them, of course.
Yeah.
I'm like, I'm going to read that.
And I crack it open and I read, you know, a couple chapters and then I'm done.
Yeah.
I've stopped myself from going back and looking at how many books I've read in other years compared to now because I think it would just make me really sad.
But regardless, maybe one day we'll be able to get over that hump of, I don't know, reading fatigue and get back to it.
Mary Elise, coming to you for your tweet or your media, what you got?
Yeah. So this is trending on X right now. And I don't, you know, don't know all the details or
anything, but I saw that Kamala Harris's husband has an accuser that's come forward and accused
him of abuse. So that's interesting it'll be i think there's probably
going to be a lot of things coming out on both sides as we get closer to the election so it's
i mean whether they're true or not um so interesting interesting development absolutely
absolutely we've i think in these um last, really it's just last week, week and a half or so of an election cycle, you see these allegations being pulled out of hats.
And some have a lot of substance and some don't.
And so it'll be, you know, we're seeing that on both sides right now.
The October surprise.
We're going into the ugly side of the election here.
Yeah.
What's that, Cameron?
The October surprise. I'm telling you
it gets nasty um like I said some are very substantive and worth noting as a voter and
some aren't and deciphering that is difficult so we'll have to go look into this because this is
the first like you said Mary Lee's it's trending right now and the first we're hearing of it
recording on uh Thursday here so fascinating um okay folks well thanks so much for listening and uh i'm excited gentlemen to
back in the office with you next week marylise we're gonna have to get you to the office it'd
be so fun to record in person with you yeah to the office and be with and actually meet everybody
in person i know it's so weird it's so weird that that has not happened, but we'll make it
happen. Folks, thank you so much for listening and we will catch you next week. Thank you to
everyone for listening. If you enjoy our show, rate and review us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify,
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