The Tim Ferriss Show - #617: In Case You Missed It: July 2022 Recap of "The Tim Ferriss Show"

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Starting point is 00:01:54 I'm a cybernetic organism, living tissue over metal endoskeleton. The Tim Ferriss. Welcome to another episode of The Tim Ferriss Show, where it is my job to deconstruct world-class performers of all different types to tease out the routines, habits, and so on that you can apply to your own life. This is a special in-between-isode, which serves as a recap of the episodes from the last month. It features a short clip from each conversation in one place, so you can jump around, get a feel for both the episode and the guest, and then you can always dig deeper by going to one of those episodes. View this episode as a

Starting point is 00:02:35 buffet to whet your appetite. It's a lot of fun. We had fun putting it together. And for the full list of the guests featured today, see the episode's description probably right below wherever you press play in your podcast app. Or as usual, you can head to Tim.blog.com and find all the details there. Please enjoy. First up, Liv Burie, one of the UK's most successful poker players, winning both European Poker Tour and World Series of Poker Championship titles during her professional career. What the hell happened in the morning? And you can contextualize this however you want.

Starting point is 00:03:18 Sure. No, I mean, what happened was I played a bunch of these tournaments, not of ones quite this size, but I'd still played a lot of tournaments at this point. And I was there before it actually started. Usually people turn up late, but for some reason I was there in my chair

Starting point is 00:03:33 before the first hand was dealt. And I remember the company PokerStars, whose event it was, they dimmed the lights. They're like, welcome to EPT San Remo. Huge, we've got incredible feel, blah, blah, blah. And then they dimmed the lights and they put on on the screens around the room just like a promo exciting promo video you know and i remember distinctly the music it was chemical brothers

Starting point is 00:03:53 hey boy hey girl which i always loved i always loved that song yeah good choice yeah and you know i was like oh this is cool yeah i'm excited and while i was just like listening to it just like out of nowhere this like a bolt of lightning felt like it was like this like and this voice in my head said you are going to win this tournament and it sounded like my own voice but what I can't remember is whether it was I am gonna win or you are gonna win but I'm pretty sure it was you are gonna win but it literally sounded like my own voice and it was so like your own voice yes so it was like the you know when you speak in your head like the voice you hear like most people have that right like you know that tuesday voice that everyone hears

Starting point is 00:04:33 oh man i'm learning a lot out here um it sounded like how i would sound in my own head to myself and it said you are going to win this tournament and i got this rush of goosebumps it's even happening a little bit like the hairs up on my you know on my arms and i remember looking around the room like did did i just say that out loud did anyone else hear this and everyone else was just like in their phones or whatever and i was like well that was freaky and then the lights came back up and they're like, okay, cool, shuffle up and deal. And I was still like stunned. And I was like, okay, cool. And then like halfway through the day, you know, and then I sort of a little bit forgot about it, but then like halfway

Starting point is 00:05:13 through the day I got in a big pot and I lost half my chips. You know, it's always a bad feeling when that happens. And I was like, oh man, I'm nearly out of the tournament. I guess that was bullshit. You know? So like I had like little multiple moments over the next few days where it clearly was a real thing because I've like checked in on it. And I even told a friend of mine on date. What do you mean checked in on it? Meaning you remembered that it had happened? That it had happened.

Starting point is 00:05:34 Well, because obviously the rational explanation to this is that it was just a false memory. You know, that I have retroactively remembered something that didn't really happen as a way of like making. You reconstructed it. Exactly. but you have multiple points at which you referred to it yes and i even have a friend my my friend melanie who was there and i bumped into her in the in the women's bathroom on like day two and she's like oh you got a lot of chips it's going well i was like yeah yeah uh things are going well really weird i feel like i'm gonna win this in fact i almost had a premonition that i did and she she's like, yeah, you seem really confident. We actually had this conversation. And to the point that she, after I won it, she was like, what the fuck was that? You like predicted this.

Starting point is 00:06:12 I'm like, I know, I don't know. So yeah, I don't know how to explain it. Now, I think you said string or series of experiences. Is that type of experience in poker isolated to that and it doesn't have to be constrained to poker so what was interesting was actually may i ask a uh i apologize for doing this herky-jerky questioning style but did you have any of those types of experiences when you were younger no you recall no no i was not like a weird kid or you know that had sorry let me start again you weren't like the kid from the sixth sense no i was not like a weird kid or you know that had sorry let me start again kid you weren't like the kid from the sixth sense no i wasn't the sixth sense kid no uh no i did not is to answer that question i had not really ever had i think anything you know like i never saw a ghost or

Starting point is 00:06:58 anything like that i'm not asking about ghosts i mean don't lump me in with the ghost hunters. Come on. I want to just paint the picture of that. I was a very, in fact, like a deep skeptic. Right. Well, you still are a deep skeptic in a lot of ways. Right. But like, certainly then, like I'd never had anything weird that I couldn't really explain in any conventional way.

Starting point is 00:07:17 I've certainly not had any time loops or anything like that or weird voices in my head. But yeah, to answer your question of like, is it a sort of common thing in poker no not so much common thing in poker but have you since had more of those types of experiences not of like explicit premonitions no i'm not nothing even close to that i have had one really notable thing that i am happy to talk about it. It's- If you change your mind, we can cut it later. Exactly. For want of a better word, I had an extreme energy healing, an almost accidental one. So it was a few years ago and seemingly out of the blue, I started getting this very unpleasant sensation in my ear where particularly it was like a sort of low frequency buzzing,

Starting point is 00:08:07 humming quite frequently. So some kind of tinnitus, but it was almost like a pressure and voices, particularly men's voices became distorted to the point that they were unbearable to listen to. And it was really bumming me out. It would come in like clusters. I would have it like for a few hours and it would go away and come later on in the day. And it was really bumming me out. It would come in like clusters. I would have it like for a few hours and it would go away and come later on in the day. And it was stopping me from doing any social events because any loud scenario was unbearable, but particularly men speaking, I just couldn't handle it. And this went on and off for a few months. And I went and saw a doctor, multiple doctors, and had hearing tests. And they said, oh, you're losing your hearing and the low frequencies of your hearing in that ear that ear we think you have many ears disease many ears is this

Starting point is 00:08:50 degenerative thing which usually people end up completely deaf when they have it where basically the nerve cells in the inner ear start dying and they don't really know why they think it's something to do with like salts and ion channels and it's incurable as far as they know and so i was told that's what i probably have and they're like it's pretty really sorry it's incurable as far as I know. And so I was told that's what I probably have. And they were like, it's pretty, really sorry. It's, you know, it was just bad news to find that out. And also because one of the symptoms of it is you start having balance problems as well. You get like these vertigo attacks and people be like vomiting and so on. And so you can imagine, I was like really down in the dumps finding this out. And then cut to three months later or so, go to

Starting point is 00:09:24 Burning Man. And I have for the first time, one of these vertigo attacks. One of the days, I mean, I wasn't completely sober, but it was not a good time as you can imagine having a vertigo attack while not being sober for the first time. So I was then really down in the dumps. And then on the last night of the burn, I was talking to some friends and started talking to this girl who I kind of, I don't know that well, but she's a friend of a friend. And I mentioned about my ear and she's like, oh, well, I do energy healing. I'm an energy healer. I was like, I don't know what that is, but sure. Do whatever you want to do. Yeah, have a go. She's like, I can try. And after she sort of put her hand over my ear for a few minutes. then she says I remember saying

Starting point is 00:10:08 something like there's something there I need to get it and she starts sucking over my ear with her mouth like not touching it but just like and it was really unpleasant like you can imagine that sensation of someone like inhaling over your ear and I was like oh please stop she's like no I need to get this there's something there and she does it I don't know for a few minutes and then eventually kind of collapses in a heap on the floor crying and freezing cold going oh my god that was that was bad I don't know what that was that was really really bad again I was not fully sober so this is slightly uh you know retelling but I just remember being so shocked I just didn't expect anything to actually happen I didn't really feel anything other than this like unpleasant sensation

Starting point is 00:10:50 of her sucking but I was so shocked at the way she was now reacting because she was shocked she did not seem to expect whatever had just happened to her and she said afterwards you know she came around after a little while and she's like I don't't know what it was. It was like bad energy. I don't know. It's gone. I'm very pleased to say it's fully gone and it's gone away. And I was like, well, okay, what does that mean for my symptoms? Am I cured? She's like, yeah, yeah, you'll probably have symptoms for a couple more weeks and then you'll be fine. And that's exactly what happened. And I haven't had any problems since. It kind of just like, it just blew my world open because aside of that premonition thing which i kind of forgotten about i have not ever subscribed to anything like that like i'm a physicist in

Starting point is 00:11:34 fact like you know i'm proud like i kind of built a career of being a like materialist rationalist physicist and i don't have any time for any of that stuff it's all nonsense it's all confirmation bias no one's ever actually tested it empirically or proven it show me the study and I'll believe it but here I am having that experience with two what feel like pretty incontrovertible data points that something that I cannot explain happened and fortunately incredibly beneficial to me. Such a blessing. Next up, Luis Van On, the co-founder and CEO of Duolingo, the most popular language learning platform and the most downloaded education app in the world. Let's also come back to the org chart.

Starting point is 00:12:36 And Leila, could you describe how that was done, what it ended up looking like, what were the implications, and just kind of walk us through that. And I remember in our first conversation, I told the story of maybe not the best example, since it is ultimately has been superseded by Netflix and superior technology. But Blockbuster back in the day when Blockbuster as a company was about to become a Blockbuster, brought in, I believe someone from McDonald's, an exec to specifically help them with org chart design. I've never designed

Starting point is 00:13:06 an org chart. So could you just describe what happened and where you landed with it? I mean, we've gone through a bunch of different org charts. When we were from zero to call it 30 employees, our org chart was very flat, as in I was managing everybody. That was that. And I actually think, you know, maybe I took it a little too far, but I actually think for the first zero to N, where N is around maybe 20 to 30 people, the best thing you can do as a CEO is be a micromanager.

Starting point is 00:13:35 I actually believe that. When you are such a small company, usually you don't quite yet have product market fit. You haven't really figured everything out. You have one goal, get the product market fit. And I don't think you should be in the business of coaching people for this or that. No, no, just I think you just micromanage people to like get to product market fit. I actually believe that at some point it really shifts, even if you love micromanaging, which I love micromanaging, but I've learned not to do that anymore. Even if you love it at some point, this is just becomes,

Starting point is 00:14:03 you just can't do it as well. And it is in your best interest to start actually developing people. You know, that shift should happen maybe at around 20. I don't know the exact number. That is when you should really start having kind of a couple of managers, I think splitting things up into teams.

Starting point is 00:14:20 What we did then, it's not like we had a pretty good idea of exactly what our org chart should look like. But what we did was it's not like we had a pretty good idea of exactly what our org chat should look like but what we did was we hired our first manager that wasn't me it's a woman that this was maybe i don't know seven years ago something like that it's a woman that's still with us she's now the head of all of engineering she used to be a director of engineering at google and i knew her because after selling recaptcha i spent some time at google i knew her i really liked her her name is nat Glanz. She's amazing.

Starting point is 00:14:45 And she took a much smaller job at Duolingo. She was managing, you know, just a larger job that she had. And she took a smaller job at Duolingo. I think she really believed in us. And she helped us from her eyes where I learned how to manage people really much better.

Starting point is 00:14:58 She actually knew how to manage people. And she really helped us kind of start having a structure of, well, we have some managers. That really made a big difference starting to have teams. Then the thing that we did after that is we discovered this idea of metrics-based teams, which to this day we use. And I think it's been a really, really good thing.

Starting point is 00:15:16 I think this is not the common thing, although some companies do do it. It's not the common thing. So the standard thing that you would have in a company, for example, at Duolingo, we have the app has a bunch of different features. One of the features could be like we have a leaderboard, for example, and a leaderboard, that's a feature. In many companies, kind of the normal thing to do is that you have a leaderboard team, a team that owns that big feature. So just kind of you split it up by feature. These are feature-based teams. We do not do feature-based teams. We do metrics-based teams. So we don't have-based teams. We do metrics-based teams. So we don't have a team that owns the leaderboard.

Starting point is 00:15:48 Instead, we have a bunch of teams that own each a single metric. So for example, a metric that we have is time spent learning. What they own is the number of minutes per day that the average user uses Duolingo for. And it turns out that changes to the leaderboard can increase or decrease

Starting point is 00:16:05 time spent learning if you do kind of the right or the wrong thing. So that team messes with the leaderboard a lot, but they don't own it. The only thing they do is they have this one metric, and every quarter, it has to increase. And so they just work on increasing this one metric, and they run hundreds of A-B tests to increase this metric. So we discovered that, you know, soon after Natalie showed up, we discovered these metric-based teams. And we started at first, our first metric-based team was a retention team, which is all you have to do is make sure

Starting point is 00:16:30 that users come back every day. And that team, you know, has done all kinds of things, really optimized the streak on Duolingo. So there's this notion of a streak that people have. If people have used it, what, every day for seven years? I was looking at the streak. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. The streak is crazy. We have, well, the number is a years? I was looking at the streaks. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. The streak is crazy.

Starting point is 00:16:46 We have, well, the number is a little larger, but now that we're a public company, we can't reveal numbers. The latest number we've revealed is that we have one and a half million daily active users that have a streak longer than a year, meaning they have not missed a single day in the last year or longer.

Starting point is 00:17:02 That's a very powerful mechanic. The retention team has worked on that. So basically what we did is we discovered these metric-based teams. And what we do now at Duolingo is when we care about a metric that we want to optimize. So a metric could be daily revenue or whatever it is,

Starting point is 00:17:16 we form a team around that metric. That has worked out pretty well. So that's kind of one big shift with us that happened. So that worked out pretty well. At some point, we had like 50 teams, I don't know, maybe a little less, maybe like 40 teams that was starting to become, we use the term goat rodeo, it started to become this craziness. And so what we did is we decided to pull the teams together that were similar to each other into this thing called areas. So now, for example, we have a monetization area. Inside the monetization area, we have a team that

Starting point is 00:17:49 owns ad revenue per day. We have a team that owns subscription revenue per day. And then we have another area called the growth area, where it's just growing our active users. We have a team that owns time spent learning. We have a team that owns retention. We have another team that owns new user retention, et cetera. And so we split up into areas. And that's how we're split up now. And what has been really good is, and the shift for me has been, it went from micromanager to kind of learning how to manage to now what I do is I'm a manager of managers. Well, I'm a manager of managers of managers of managers. But at some point, that kind of doesn't matter that much.

Starting point is 00:18:23 You're just a manager of managers is kind of what matters. And I've learned how to start managing managers much better. I've gotten good at it. Next up, Noah Feldman, a Harvard professor, ethical philosopher and advisor, public intellectual, religious scholar and historian, and author of 10 books, including his latest, The Broken Constitution, Lincoln, Slavery, and the Refounding of America. Do any books come to mind or people who you find or that you find particularly interesting or informative with respect to geopolitical strategy, brinksmanship on this geopolitical three-dimensional chessboard

Starting point is 00:19:15 or warfare at any capacity? For people who would like to get a better understanding of how these games are played, maybe historical precedents, how different conflicts have turned out depending on different stratagems used by opposing parties, for instance. Any books or people you find interesting? One is something that a lot of listeners will have heard of, maybe all listeners will have heard of, and some will have read, especially people who are veterans and definitely people who have been in the service academies will have read, especially people who are veterans, and definitely people who have been in the service academies will have read. And it's not that long, and it's unbelievably good. And it's this book called On War by von Clausewitz, a German general. It's the single

Starting point is 00:19:55 most influential book on war written since Sun Tzu's Art of War. And as I said, it's required reading in military academies in every country in the world. It's shockingly well-written. It's unbelievably clear. And it has a very specific philosophical view about what war is like and what war is for. And it's famous for the line that war is the continuation of politics by other means. And that's a profound statement because it suggests that war serves the interests of political actors and is prosecuted to achieve those interests. But the other thing about it that's really fascinating is he wrote it from the point of view that says the only smart way to fight a war is to fight it absolutely without holding back. Put all your

Starting point is 00:20:50 cards on the table, sorry, put all your chips on the table and, you know, try to win the war. And that maximizes the odds that you will, and it'll be over faster. And if it's over faster, that's also good for everybody, he says, because then it won't kill more people and eat up more resources. And yet, despite the fact that the first idea of von Clausewitz, the idea that war is politics by other means, is accepted by everybody in the domain of war and politics, there are lots of wars that aren't fought in the extreme, all-out von Clausewitz way. of them, including a bunch of U.S. wars, which have not been fought that way. Wars which, notably, we haven't won. You know, wars like Vietnam and Iraq and arguably even Afghanistan.

Starting point is 00:21:34 So I would strongly recommend that book. I can't actually recommend it strongly enough. It really makes you think. And they're, you know, it's easy to buy. You can buy it in any book shop and i'm sure you could buy it on on amazon you know in 20 seconds in terms of contemporary people writing about the geopolitics you know i really like to mix and match i like to read work by people who are thought of as realists who think that national self-interest is all that matters

Starting point is 00:22:04 and i like to read work by people who are called idealists, who think that moral principles matter as well. And I really like historical perspective. So on anything to do with Ukraine, I love the work of a historian called Tim Snyder, who teaches at Yale. And he's, first of all, a fantastic historian who's genuinely a ukraine expert i mean his first few books before he got famous were highly technical historical studies of ukrainian history and then each book he writes gets a little broader in terms of its audience and now he writes very broad and general books and he's a terrific historian and he's really the person to read on ukraine and its history and he also takes takes you beyond just Ukraine and discusses the relationship between Germany

Starting point is 00:22:51 and Russia and really the whole 20th century's concept of war, which interestingly, he thinks of Ukraine as having been at the middle of, not because Ukraine was so important, but because the countries, Germany and Russia, that were fighting these wars were fighting in part over the territory that includes Ukraine. So I would strongly recommend any of his books. His grand book is called Bloodlands. It's long and intense, but it's very, very, very beautifully and clearly written. And if you can stomach a book about the wars of the 20th century, you'll learn a ton about geopolitics and the region in the process.

Starting point is 00:23:29 Thank you for those recommendations. Sounds like I have some von Clausewitz to read, first and foremost. You're going to love von Clausewitz. He would totally be on your podcast if he were still alive. Next up, Balaji Srinivasan, angel investor, entrepreneur, and author of the new book, The Network State,

Starting point is 00:23:56 How to Start a New Country, which is also available for free at thenetworkstate.com. So what do you think the US looks like in five years? Just if we could paint a picture. Oh, sure. It's like BLM and Jan 6th all the time. You mean in terms of events or in terms of discussion? In terms of there will be mobs that are gathered online,

Starting point is 00:24:26 there will be, it's like stochastic network warfare between two groups. I say it's five years, might be 10 years. I don't know the exact timeframe. It could happen faster, it could happen slower. But fundamentally, I think the catalyst is if you look at interest rates and you look at the graph, have you ever looked at like the long-term graph of interest rates? Yeah, I have actually, but we should put it in the show notes for people. We should put it in the show notes because I just want to find this graph, a long-term chart. So if you go to this graph and you click max. All right. So this is tradingeconomics.com slash United hyphen states slash interest hyphen rate.

Starting point is 00:25:03 Yeah. So United States interest rate, United States Fed funds rate at tradingeconomics.com, right? And you click max on this chart. I'm looking at max. Okay. And so what do you see? You essentially see something where over a 40-year timeframe, you have a trend which is very much down into the right. Yeah? Yep. And what that is, is it's basically, this is something where one of the things I write about is, and Dalio's actually also talked about this. There are trends that affect humans that are longer than the cycles that we're intuitively

Starting point is 00:25:40 familiar with. For example, you're familiar with the cycle of your breath. That's a few seconds, right? You're familiar with a day. You're familiar with basically the seasons of a year. And that's actually what most people are familiar with. Beyond that, maybe the election cycle, you know, in four years, or the longest thing somebody might be familiar with, frankly, are venture capital funds or startups, which are like 10-year cycles. That might be the longest thing where you can run an experiment and see a few reps of it in a five or 10-year time frame over your life, right? A venture capitalist might see hundreds or thousands of five or 10-year long experiments that most people don't really track things over that time frame. And any normal human cannot really track things over 40 or 50 years. You have to kind of dedicate your life to that, right?

Starting point is 00:26:22 Same thing that's happening over multiple decades. you really need really good charts and stuff to see what the heck is happening this graph is one of the best and most important because it's so unambiguous and what it shows is essentially that the u.s economy we have run out of juice the federal reserve being able to print money and so on it just keeps going down on this trend like interest rates. And if you notice, every time they try to jack it up, it has to be pushed back down and kept down for longer and longer and longer, if you're seeing that in that graph. And now the next time when they're going to be forced probably to bring interest rates all the way to the floor, maybe before

Starting point is 00:27:05 the 2024 election. And I think you will see very serious inflation as a function of that because they'll print money and we'll actually have genuine goods shortages because we have all these supply chain things that are hitting. You have China doing its crazy stuff with the ports and the COVID lockdowns. You have the slow steaming regulations. I do not know the slow steaming regulations? I do not know the slow steaming regulations. Basically like, you know, some ESG thing.

Starting point is 00:27:31 This is a great example of how like moral, you know, the moral flippening. I'm getting this secondhand, so I might have it wrong, but I believe it is reducing the speed of cargo ships to cut down carbon emissions. Let me just define two things real quickly. So you mentioned Dalio, just for people who don't know. Ray Dalio, former, let's just call him head principal at Bridgewater Associates, at least at the time that I interviewed him, largest hedge fund in the world, about $175 billion or something like that.

Starting point is 00:27:59 ESG, environmental, social, and governance factors. So just that bleeds into what you were just discussing. So please continue. Just to summarize it, basically, we have more money. They're eventually going to need to print again. We have literally fewer goods where China's cutting off supply. There's sanctions. There's wars like Ukraine. There are COVID lockdowns. There's stuff like slow steaming, which is this huge self-inflicted wound by the ESG thing where every single container ship in the world has to slow down now. So you have a lot of things that can sum up into something where it gets nonlinear fast.

Starting point is 00:28:36 And if that happens, and you do have not just the inflation we have now, but genuine serious inflation or even hyperinflation, that is when society comes apart in the US because, I mean, people have been so freaking angry at each other during the 2010s in a relatively booming market. Like in the 2010s, up until 2019, things were like decent economically, but man, were people mad at each other. And when there's like actual genuine scarcity, if that does happen, if physical goods are hard to come by and your inflation, you know, inflation destroyed your currency and so on.

Starting point is 00:29:09 And you have a country where people are heavily armed and they're yelling at each other on social media. And you've got 50 governors, like you've got a very potent cocktail for bad things. And we've sort of seen this in lots of other countries that, frankly, America was involved in partially destabilizing, like look at Libya or something like that, or Mexico or what have you, but that people just really do believe on some level, quote, it can't happen here. But I think American anarchy, unfortunately, is sort of where we're heading. And what exactly does that mean? I'll try and paint a picture. So first of all, in 1861, if you go and look at the map in 1861, you have the Union and you have the Confederates, and it's the ideological and the geographical coincide. You have the North and you have the South. And we take for granted that the victory condition was for the North to just

Starting point is 00:30:04 invade the South, because by invading their capital and burning and so on, they didn't just destroy their supply chain, they also killed their morale, and eventually they got the entire South to concede, and they could flip them ideologically and emancipation, proclamation, reconstruction. They uninstalled the software in their heads and installed software with new moral premises. Same in World War II, invade Nazi Germany, de-Nazify them, capture the capital. The ideological and geographical coincided, and that's how we think of wars as working. Now, today, though, if you go and look at a map of the U.S. and you look at Republican-Democrat, it's not in clean states. It's very fractal. It's at

Starting point is 00:30:42 individual county level. You've got a little red here, a little blue here, purple here. It's extremely grouped together. It's fractal. And so what that means is that in physical space, these two nations are cheek by jowl. But in digital space, as that graph I showed you showed, those two social networks are just clustered apart in digital space. They are separated in digital space. They're separated in digital space. Did I show you that graphic? Did you see it?

Starting point is 00:31:07 Yeah, you did. Yeah, I got it. And we'll put this in the show notes for everybody. So when you see that graph, you're like, oh, okay. So in physical space, people are cheek by gel, but in digital space, they're far apart. And that's where the battlefront is. And you can reconceptualize the last several years as a social war. Because if in a physical war, the goal is to invade territory, in a social war, the goal is to invade minds. And now when we think about cancellation, deplatforming, hashtags, et cetera, et cetera, the point is that what you're trying to do is get a node on their side to flip from blue to red or red to blue. And how do you do that?

Starting point is 00:31:47 Because they're now uttering your hashtag slogan, right? BLM or MAGA or something like that. They're uttering that slogan. That node is flipped. It's like capture the flag. You're seeing from their utterance that they are saying the thing that indicates that are now on your team. They're raising a flag over their company, et cetera.

Starting point is 00:32:03 And you are able to cancel and silence those people who are saying things that are raising a flag over their company, et cetera, and you are able to cancel and silence those people who are saying things that are contrary to your view and so on and so forth. It is essentially something where, because you are constrained from using physical violence, since what are you going to do, invade a cornfield, invade a city? That doesn't actually work. You're winning digitally. It's digital warfare. Now, when I say constrained from using physical violence, as we've seen, we're starting to see stoch's digital warfare. Now, when I say constrained from using physical violence, as we've seen, we're starting to see stochastic digital violence. The Proud Boys and Antifa and so on punching it out in the street, that's actually an extremely unusual thing in the 90s and 2000s America. You just never saw left and right-wing militias punching it out in the

Starting point is 00:32:44 streets. But you see that now. That's actually something which is de rigueur. I don't know. We're on the 100th or 300th. It's like an event. You wouldn't be totally shocked that that's happening, that political violence is happening in America. But it is.

Starting point is 00:32:56 And it's on a ramp. And so you put all that together. And basically, what I see is serious inflation, you know, Bitcoin mooning, and then the U.S. government trying to freeze or seize the Bitcoin with something that's similar to Executive Order 6102. Next up, Dr. Matt Kaberlein, a professor of laboratory medicine and pathology at the University of Washington School of Medicine, with adjunct appointments in genome sciences and oral health sciences.

Starting point is 00:33:34 He is the founder and co-director of the Dog Aging Project. Let me revert back to the Dog Aging Project for a second. You mentioned the clinical study side, and I would love for you to describe the hypothesis going into that. What is the, and I hesitate to use the word hope, right? But with the intervention of rapamycin, what might you see based on previous data or studies? So let me take a step back because I think it's useful to first just briefly talk about how this idea even came about. Because really in my mind,

Starting point is 00:34:15 I think the first time I really thought of the idea of doing a clinical trial in dogs was going on 10 years ago now. I think it was probably 2013. And Daniel Promislo, who's co-director of the Dog Aging Project, and Kate Creevey, who's our chief veterinary officer, had been thinking about the longitudinal study well before this. So it was actually in conversations with them that got me thinking about companion dogs living in the human environment as an animal that we could actually study and learn about the

Starting point is 00:34:44 biology of aging. And I'm a dog person. I've always had dogs. And so the idea, when it's solidified in my mind, there's really no reason why these interventions that we can increase lifespan and healthspan in mice, they're going to work in dogs. I don't know that all of them are going to work. I don't know rapamycin is going to work, but I am 100% rock solid confident that some of them are going to work. I don't know rapamycin is going to work, but I am a hundred percent rock solid confident that some of them are going to work and being a dog guy and wanting my dog to live longer. When that light bulb went off in my head, I was like, this goddamn has to happen. Yeah. Right. This has to happen. And so that was really what got me on the path of then thinking, okay, how do we do it? How do we actually, how do we start that process? How do we actually test whether or not an intervention, I hadn't settled on rapamycin at

Starting point is 00:35:30 that time, would have this effect in dogs. And so that was the process of going through, how do you set up a clinical trial? One thing to consider is companion dogs very much like people's children. So you kind of think about a clinical trial the way you would a pediatric clinical trial. You really have to be sure whatever intervention you're using isn't going to kill somebody's dog or harm somebody's dog. So these are all the things that I started thinking about. And I settled on rapamycin because there was enough evidence at that point to convince me that it could be done safely. That was really the only concern with rapamycin based on the side effects that I talked about in organ transplant patients, that it could be done safely. And because it was our best bet for the interventions that we knew about then, and I would

Starting point is 00:36:14 say still now, for being likely to have an effect on lifespan and healthspan for the reasons that we've sort of already gotten into. So what might we expect based on what we know in mice? So I talked about some of the tissues where rapamycin makes things better. There are many other tissues where it hasn't really been looked at in that context of better, but where at least if you give it lifelong, the declines are delayed at a minimum, we can say that. So that's true in brain. It's true in kidney. It's true in kidney. It's true in liver. May I pause for a second? What type of degeneration or changes are delayed or reversed in the brain? This has been studied both in the context of normal aging and in mouse models of

Starting point is 00:36:59 Alzheimer's disease and other neurodegenerative diseases. In every case, you see improvements in function. So these are behavioral tests in mice. There are these water maze tests, things like that, right? So to the extent that they are actually telling us what we think they're telling us about cognition, you see improvements in the rapamycin-treated mice versus the control mice. Got it. So it's performance, task performance-based. Definitely. Those functional measures are the ones that I put the most faith in, right? Got it. treated mice versus the control performance task performance phase. Definitely those functional measures are the ones that I put the most faith in, right? I think, sure. You want to see changes in pathology and molecular biomarkers and things like that. I don't care if the biomarker changes,

Starting point is 00:37:35 if it doesn't make it function better though. So that's why I start there, but people have done lots of studies looking at cerebral blood flow. So that's one model that's been put forth. There's decreases in neuroinflammation as we would expect expect given the effect of rapamycin on inflammation, and increases in metabolic function or mitochondrial function in the brain. So there are plausible molecular mechanisms by which rapamycin could be having these effects. And that's pretty much true in the other tissues where rapamycin has been shown to have effects. A lot of people have been studying this and made, I think, reasonable models at a molecular level for how rapamycin is acting. So I'll cut it short and just say pretty much every tissue where people

Starting point is 00:38:14 have looked, you can find evidence that function has been at least preserved. The one that might be worth commenting on briefly and coming back to because we touched on it is muscle. So early on, there was a lot of concern, I think particularly among muscle biologists, that rapamycin would increase sarcopenia or enhance muscle loss with aging and make things worse. And that's because it's known in muscle biology that mTOR promotes muscle growth, or at least it's required for protein synthesis, which is part of muscle growth. So the conventional wisdom was that when you inhibit mTOR, that would lead to a decrease in muscle mass, muscle function. Several studies now in both mice and rats have shown it's exactly the opposite. You maintain muscle function better with age when the mice or the rats are given

Starting point is 00:39:03 rapamycin. Now, dose is probably important. So I do think if you were to push the dose too far, you might impair muscle growth or muscle maintenance. But if the doses that also extend lifespan and have all these other effects, muscle is actually functioning better in old animals than in control animals. And this is why I constantly tell the people in my lab and other scientists, you got to do the experiment. You cannot go into it thinking that you know the answer and not do the experiment because your dogmatic belief says this is how it's going to work. You got to do the experiment. the mice data, let's just say, lifespan in terms of percentage increase in this case, what might be the range? I think the upper side for what's been shown in mice so far with rapamycin is about 25% increase in lifespan. I do, and I mean, that's certainly possible in dogs. I would say if I had to guess, I would guess it's not going to be that the magnitude of effect on a percent basis is not going to be as big in longer lived animals.

Starting point is 00:40:09 That's just a guess. I don't have any data to support that, which might mean that the magnitude of effect in people is going to be even smaller because people are much longer lived than dogs are and much longer lived than mice are. But it could be as much as 25%. So if you're talking about a large dog that maybe would normally live to be 14 years old, you're talking another three years. Study worth doing. I say that as I'm looking around you to my dog, Molly, seven years of age,

Starting point is 00:40:37 laying on the floor. And the function matters, right? I mean, the function really matters. Absolutely. I think most people would agree that the function matters more than the absolute lifespan. I think almost everybody says, if you'd ask them, you know, would you want to live longer? They're like, no, not if I'm going to live longer in a decrepit state. Now, is it fair to say that that is one of the valid criticisms of at least certain forms of, say, caloric restriction? Well, I don't know. Maybe. I mean, certain forms of, say, caloric restriction. Well, I don't know. Maybe. I mean, I wouldn't necessarily pick on caloric restriction. I think there's evidence that, at least in mice, that caloric restriction can maintain function later

Starting point is 00:41:15 in life as well. Now, you could make an argument about quality of life, for sure. I would pick on caloric restriction then in people. But I think the general question, is that a valid concern in targeting the biology of aging? I would say it is and it isn't. So nothing that I have ever seen, and I've seen a lot of things that extend lifespan, nothing has ever convincingly extended the bad part of life, the decrepit state. There's a little bit of debate in the C. elegans field about that, but I think these are people arguing over silly stuff. I've never seen anything that does that. It's C. elegans. It's a nematode worm. It is, right? Nematode worm. Yeah. Even there, I think it's a semantic argument, not a real argument. But certainly in mammals, nothing that extends lifespan only extends the end period of life. I think it's a legitimate

Starting point is 00:42:08 question whether some of these interventions might proportionately extend lifespan, where you're proportionately extending healthspan, but you also, in an absolute sense, do have a longer period of decline. That is hard to really completely resolve. I would say things like rapamycin and caloric restriction, which those are the two most potent interventions we've got right now, really do seem in mice to push the declines in function and diseases back later into life. So you really have disproportionately extended healthspan compared to lifespan. But again, that's my interpretation of the data, but it's a hard case to make quantitatively.

Starting point is 00:42:50 Last but not least, Mark Plotkin in conversation with Hamilton Morris for the Plants of the Gods podcast, the audio of which appeared for the first time on The Tim Ferriss Show. Mark Plotkin is an ethnobotanist who serves as president of the Amazon Conservation Team, which has partnered with around 80 tribes to map and improve management and protection of approximately 100 million acres of ancestral rainforests. Hamilton Morris is a chemist, filmmaker, and science journalist. He is the writer and director of the documentary series, Hamilton's Pharmacopoeia, in which he explores the chemistry and traditions surrounding psychoactive drugs. I want to make the point here that we're not doing commercials for any of these substances. And in all the episodes, I point out that these things can be lethal. And you've mentioned that on your show and in some of your writings and interviews.

Starting point is 00:43:50 But even cannabis, which people sort of think of as this harmless thing that can't hurt anybody. And I was reading something of yours recently that talked about problematic relationships with cannabis. So I wonder if you could give an example of that so that people understand that all of these plants are the gods and fungi are the gods and frogs are the gods may have a downside. Yeah, I think it's very important to have a balanced perspective on these things because there's been something really polarizing about the way they've been publicly discussed from the very beginning. They're either a panacea that's going to cure all of society's ills, they're going to prevent us from being mean to each other, they're going to end all wars, or they're poisonous agents that will destroy your mind and leave you intellectually crippled. And of course, the truth is somewhere in the middle, where for some people, under some

Starting point is 00:44:46 circumstances, they can have a tremendous benefit and they can be truly life-changing. And under other circumstances, they can have a damaging effect. And cannabis, I think, is an interesting example because it also includes the political dimensions of all this. Because the people that have been using these substances for decades have been persecuted. And that creates a sort of insecurity complex. Understandably, justifiably, if the government says that this is dangerous and they're willing to lock you in a cage for it, if your employer can terminate your employment, if they find traces of this substance in your hair or your urine, which is an insane invasion of privacy that nobody

Starting point is 00:45:30 should tolerate, then it makes sense. You'd want to really stand up for this stuff and say, hey, wait a second. It's never killed anybody. It's safer than alcohol, safer than tobacco. This stuff is innocuous. In fact, you can smoke it every single day and you'll be totally fine. And in many instances, that might be true, but that doesn't necessarily mean that you should. And it doesn't mean that we, I think this is the tendency as we go too far in one direction or another. And a lot of it has to do with this. Yeah, this insecurity from people demonizing these substances for so long. Agreed.

Starting point is 00:46:06 But can you give perhaps an example of a problematic relationship with cannabis? Because your point is well taken, but that is even cannabis can have a downside. Oh, certainly. Yeah, I mean, I think one of the most interesting examples is there's a disorder called cannabis hyper-emesis disorder. Are you familiar with this? It wasn't described in the medical literature until somewhat recently. It's a very odd phenomenon where people who smoke enormous quantities of cannabis will start vomiting continuously. And the only thing that relieves their nausea is taking a hot shower. And people started showing up in emergency rooms when they ran out of hot water because they couldn't control their vomiting.

Starting point is 00:46:54 And this seemed really bizarre because, wait a second, people have been using cannabis for thousands of years. What are the chances that now, all of a sudden, a new cannabis-related disorder would emerge. It couldn't be the cannabis itself. It must be a pesticide. It must be some contaminant in the cannabis. Otherwise, how could this possibly be explained? And the explanation is that, yes,

Starting point is 00:47:17 it is the cannabis itself. This is a product of chronic hyperstimulation of CB1 receptors, and the reality is that people are smoking more cannabis now than any other time in human history. So new use disorders are actually emerging. And although this is described as a somewhat obscure phenomenon, it's not as obscure as people think.

Starting point is 00:47:38 I've known two people that had this disorder, both of whom didn't know they had it. And it's especially insidious because cannabis has an anti-emetic effect. So you're nauseous. You think, oh man, I'm so sick. I need to smoke some cannabis because I'm really nauseous, but the cannabis is actually making it worse. It's the cause, it's the source of the nausea. And this, during the pandemic, I had a friend who this happened to because he was just getting really, really stoned all the time. And and I had noticed that he was constantly soaking wet.

Starting point is 00:48:12 And I thought, like, why is this guy? Is he like taking showers five times a day? Why is he always so wet? And and he then told me, you know, I don't know what's going on. I've just been, you just been vomiting all the time, and a hot shower is really the only thing that helps. And I thought, wow, all right, I know what you have. So I don't want to bring that up as an example of something

Starting point is 00:48:35 that everyone should be really terrified of, because this is something that only afflicts people who are extremely stoned all the time. But it's just an example of how this plant that's considered totally innocuous under some circumstances can have a negative effect. Also, I think there's something to be said for maybe just not being stoned all the time.

Starting point is 00:48:59 And I say this as somebody that likes cannabis personally. I'm not trying to hate on cannabis. It's just there's, like I said, a tendency to go to these extremes of either cannabis is terrible or you should be stoned all the time because cannabis is a medicine. Well, my mentor Richard Schultes would often describe mind-altering plants as scalpels in the hand of a shame and it can heal, but it can also harm if it's not used correctly. And so once again, all of these plants, all of these fungi, all of these substances need to be used with caution and approached with reverence and

Starting point is 00:49:30 carefully. And that's why I often tell people you shouldn't be experimenting on your own with very powerful substances. And now here are the bios for all the guests. My guest today is Liv Burry. That's B-O-E-R-E-E on Twitter at Liv underscore Burry. She is one of the UK's most successful poker players, now a resident of Austin, Texas, winning both European Poker Tour and World Series of Poker Championship titles during her professional career. Before poker, she studied astrophysics and now focuses her time as a TV host and YouTuber specializing in game theory, futurism, and rationality. What a world we live in that you can now do that on YouTube. It's fucking amazing. It's incredible.

Starting point is 00:50:16 She also gives seminars on high stakes decision making and recently spoke at the annual TED conference about the application of poker thinking to everyday life. In 2014, she co-founded Raising for Effective Giving, R-E-G, parenthetically. Let me try that again. She co-founded Raising for Effective Giving, in parentheses, R-E-G. Let me try that again. In 2014, she co-founded Raising for Effective Giving, R-E-G. We should keep all of those takes in. This is so bad. I'm trying to cut back on my caffeine and this is the price I pay. A nonprofit based upon the philosophies of effective altruism that raised more than $12 million for its carefully selected list of maximally cost-effective charities. You can find her online, liveburee.com, liveburee.substack.com.

Starting point is 00:51:03 And on all of the things, all of the socials, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, you can certainly search and find her, Liv Burry. My guest today is Luis Von Ahn. You can find him on Twitter at Luis, L-U-I-S-V-O-N-A-H-N. Luis is an entrepreneur and consulting professor at Carnegie Mellon University, who is considered one of the pioneers of crowdsourcing. He is known for co-inventing Captchas, being a MacArthur Fellow, and selling two companies to Google in his 20s. He's currently the co-founder and CEO of Duolingo, a language learning platform created to bring free language education to the world. With more than 500 million users, it is now the most popular

Starting point is 00:51:45 language learning platform and the most downloaded education app in the world. Luis has been named one of the Brilliant 10 by Popular Science, one of the 50 Best Brains in Science by Discover, one of the Innovators Under 35 by MIT Technology Review, and one of the 100 Most Creative People in Business by Fast Company. Luis also won the 2018 Lemelson MIT Prize, the largest cast prize for invention in the United States. I'm thrilled to welcome back Noah Feldman. You can find him on Twitter at Noah R. Feldman, F-E-L-D-M-A-N. Noah is a Harvard professor, ethical philosopher and advisor, public intellectual, religious scholar, and historian, and author of 10 books,

Starting point is 00:52:30 including his latest, The Broken Constitution, subtitle, Lincoln's Slavery and the Refounding of America. He's also a hyper polyglot. It tells you something when that can be omitted in the bio. Moving on, Feldman is host of the Deep Background podcast, a policy and public affairs columnist for Bloomberg Opinion and a former contributing writer for the New York Times. He served as senior constitutional advisor to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq and subsequently advised members of the Iraqi Governing Council on the drafting of Iraq's interim constitution. He earned his AB summa cum laude from Harvard, finishing first in his class. Selected as a Rhodes Scholar, he earned a DPhil, which I just learned

Starting point is 00:53:10 how to pronounce properly, from Oxford University, writing his dissertation on Aristotle's ethics. He received his JD from Yale Law School and clerked for Justice David Souter of the U.S. Supreme Court. Noah's 10 books also include Divided by God, America's Church-State Problem and What We Should Do About It, What We Owe Iraq, War and the Ethics of Nation-Building, Cool War, subtitle, The United States, China, and the Future of Global Competition, Scorpions, The Battles and Triumphs of FDR's Great Supreme Court Justices, and The Three Lives of James Madison, Genius, Partisan, President. You can find him on Twitter, as mentioned, at Noah R. Feldman, Instagram, at Noah R. Feldman. And all things Noah can be found

Starting point is 00:53:52 at noah-feldman.com. My guest today is the one and only Balaji S. Srinivasan. You can find him on Twitter at Balaji S. Balaji is an angel investor and entrepreneur. He has the first and second place records for longest podcast episodes ever on this podcast. We will probably keep it to two and a half to three hours, I say with great confidence now. Formerly the CTO. But people listen to them. They do. They do. People listen to them. A lot of people. These are two, the last two appearances were two of the most popular episodes, certainly in the last year to 18 months. Formerly the CTO of Coinbase and general partner at

Starting point is 00:54:35 Andreessen Horowitz. He was also the co-founder of Earn.com, acquired by Coinbase Council, acquired by Myriad Teleport, acquired by Topia and Coin Center. He was named to the MIT Technology Review's Innovators Under 35, won a Wall Street Journal Innovation Award, and holds a BS, MS, PhD in Electrical Engineering and an MS in Chemical Engineering, all from Stanford University. Balaji also teaches the occasional class at Stanford in his spare time, including an online MOOC in 2013, which reached 250,000 plus students worldwide. His brand new book is The Network State, How to Start a New Country. And we will certainly wade into those waters and explore all of the related topics in depth. My guest today is Dr. Matt Kaberlein. You can find him on Twitter, M. Kaberlein. Let me spell that for you. K-A-E-B-E-R-L-E-I-N.

Starting point is 00:55:29 And Matt is a professor of laboratory medicine and pathology at the University of Washington School of Medicine with adjunct appointments in genome sciences and oral health sciences. Dr. Kaberlein's research interests are focused on understanding biological mechanisms of aging in order to facilitate translational interventions that promote health span and improve quality of life for people and companion animals. Dr. Kaberlein is the founding director of the University of Washington Healthy Aging and Longevity Research Institute, the director of the NIH Nathan Schock Center of Excellence in the Basic Biology of Aging at University of Washington, director of the Biological Mechanisms of Healthy Aging Training Program, and founder and co-director of the Dog Aging Project. You can find him online at caberlinelab.org, again on Twitter at mcaberline,

Starting point is 00:56:18 and we will link to all the other social LinkedIn, et cetera, in the show notes at tim.blog slash podcast. Welcome to The Tim Ferriss Show, where it is usually my job to deconstruct world-class performers to tease out their routines, habits, et cetera, that you can apply to your own life. This time around, we have a very special edition of this podcast featuring two of your favorite guests from the past, Dr. Mark Plotkin and Hamilton Morris. Mark takes over my duties as host and interviews Hamilton for an episode of the Plants of the Gods podcast. You, my dear listeners, are hearing this audio before anyone else, so it's a Tim Ferriss show exclusive. I've previously featured some of my favorite episodes from the Plants of the Gods podcast here on this

Starting point is 00:57:06 podcast. And you can find all of those at Tim.blog slash Plants of the Gods. These episodes cover a lot of fascinating ground. So let's get to the bios. Who is Mark? If you don't know, Mark on Twitter at Doc, D-O-C, Mark Plotkin is an ethnobotanist who serves as president of the Amazon Conservation Team, which has partnered with roughly 80 tribes to map and improve management and protection of roughly 100 million acres of ancestral rainforests. He is best known to the general public as the author of the book Tales of a Shaman's Apprentice, one of the most popular books ever written about the rainforest. His most recent book is the Amazon What Everyone Needs to Know. You can find my interview with Mark at tim.blog

Starting point is 00:57:45 slash markplotkin. That's M-A-R-K-P-L-O-T-K-I-N. And the guest, his guest today is Hamilton Morris. Love Hamilton. Hamilton on Twitter at Hamilton Morris, M-O-R-R-I-S, is a chemist, filmmaker, and science journalist. A graduate of the New School, he conducts chemistry research at St. Joseph's University. Hamilton is the writer and director of the documentary series Hamilton's Pharmacopoeia, in which he explores the chemistry and traditions surrounding psychoactive drugs, very often subjecting himself to personal intake. You can find my most recent interview with him at tim.blog.com. And what you're about to hear is a tightly packed 60-minute interview. Mark and Hamilton cover the history of different

Starting point is 00:58:30 psychoactive substances, Timothy Leary's legacy, the drunken monkey hypothesis, conservation, microdosing, the differences between 5-MeO-DMT, that's 5-methoxy-dimethyltryptamine, and DMT, a disease that afflicts people who smoke enormous quantities of cannabis. Yes, really. The impact of the placebo effect, synthetic versus natural options in this psychoactive spectrum of things, the role of ritual, and much, much more. Hey guys, this is Tim again. Just one more thing before you take off, and that is Five Bullet Friday. Would you enjoy getting a short email from me every Friday that provides a little fun before the weekend? Between one and a half and two million people subscribe to my free newsletter, my super

Starting point is 00:59:11 short newsletter called Five Bullet Friday. Easy to sign up, easy to cancel. It is basically a half page that I send out every Friday to share the coolest things I've found or discovered or have started exploring over that week. It's kind of like my diary of cool things. It often includes articles I'm reading, books I'm reading, albums perhaps, gadgets, gizmos, all sorts of tech tricks and so on that get sent to me by my friends, including a lot of podcast guests. And these strange esoteric things end up in my field, and then I test them, and then I share them with you. So if that sounds fun, again, it's very short, a little tiny bite of goodness before you head off

Starting point is 00:59:51 for the weekend, something to think about. If you'd like to try it out, just go to tim.blog slash Friday, type that into your browser, tim.blog slash Friday, drop in your email, and you'll get the very next one. Thanks for listening.

The Tim Ferriss Show - #617: In Case You Missed It: July 2022 Recap of "The Tim Ferriss Show"

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