The Trillionaire Mindset - 41: What the $#@! is a Recession? ft. Kyla Scanlon

Episode Date: July 8, 2022

Become an exclusive member at https://tmgstudios.tv This week Ben and Emil host special guest Kyla Scanlon! She brings her informed opinions about the market and economy as the trio break down the specifics of a looming U.S. recession. If you listen on Apple Podcasts, go to: https://apple.co/trillionaire Go to http://public.com/TRILL and you’ll receive a free stock once you open an account. *This is not investment advice. Offer valid for U.S. residents 18+ and subject to account approval. See http://public.com/disclosures/   Protect your family’s financial future with Fabric. Apply today in just 10 minutes at https://www.meetfabric.com/TRILL  Go to https://shopify.com/trill for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features SUBSCRIBE to Trillionaire Mindset at https://www.youtube.com/trillionairemindset   Trillionaire Highlights Channel: https://www.youtube.com/TrillionaireMindsetHighlights Trillionaire IG: https://www.instagram.com/trillionairepod Trillionaire Twitter: https://twitter.com/trillionairepod TMG Studios YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/tinymeatgang TMG Studios IG: https://www.instagram.com/realtmgstudios TMG Studios Twitter: https://twitter.com/realtmgstudios BEN https://www.instagram.com/bencahn/ https://twitter.com/Buncahn EMIL https://www.instagram.com/emilderosa/ https://twitter.com/emilderosa   *DISCLOSURE: THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED IN THIS VIDEO ARE SOLELY THOSE OF THE PARTICIPANTS INVOLVED. THESE OPINIONS DO NOT REFLECT THE OPINIONS OF ANYONE ELSE. THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. THE VIEWER OF THE VIDEO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CONSIDERING ANY INFORMATION CAREFULLY AND MAKING THEIR OWN DECISIONS TO BUY OR SELL OR HOLD ANY INVESTMENT. SOME OF THE CONTENT OF THIS VIDEO IS CONSIDERED TO BE SATIRE AND MAY NOT BE CONSIDERED FACTUAL AND SHOULD BE TAKEN IN SUCH LIGHT. THE COMMENTS MADE IN THIS VIDEO ARE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY AND ARE NOT MEANT TO BE TAKEN LITERALLY.* 

Hey, oh, good morning. I guess I'll just go right into the disclaimer. Hi, Glenn. Okay. I don't know. Yeah. Hey, Glenn. Glenn is my compliance guy at the platform.

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where you can support us directly. So go ahead and do that. So without further ado, if you've been on TikTok and you've gotten either in your for you page or you just pay attention to Fintok. You may have seen our guest here. This is Kyla Scanlon, who is, let's say that right. Yeah, he's right. No, a lot of people get it wrong. Really? What do they say? They say Kayla, Scali and, yeah, it's just an crazy

happy blood take. He was saying that. I accidentally said it yet. But you are the number one finance creator on TikTok. In the world, not only in the world, yeah. Also a financial education founder. Yeah, very cool. I think can we just have you closer to the mic?

A little bit. Maybe we can angle the mic a little bit. Sorry. Oh, yeah. Is that better? Yeah, but does that uncomfortable? It looks uncomfortable. See what I'm doing here?

You don't have to do that at all. No, I'll just, yeah, I'll give you. Yeah, that's great. Sorry. No, it is we gotta get a third arm. Yeah. A third arm. Oh, this is fine.

I just didn't know. This all needed me. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm a beginner in the podcast game. So are we. Yeah. I wanted to have in the podcast game. So are we. Yeah. I wanted to have you on because you are consistently one of the most well, you're so well informed and you have a knack for taking

consolidating a ton of really hard to understand information and putting it into a format that is easy to digest for the modern brain, the dummy brain, the TikTok brain. Your videos are... The Tiktok brain. Yes, they're all one minute long, correct? Yeah, yeah, approximately. And you've got graphics and you've got captions in there and it's just really... So if you don't... There's humor, it's very fun.

Yes, your TikTok app is... Kyla Scan. So go follow her right now if you don't already. And on Twitter, right? Yeah, Twitter, Instagram, SubSac, LinkedIn. LinkedIn. Oh, LinkedIn's such a... YouTube, I'm also here, yeah.

And you just started your own podcast? Well, no, so I, I have my YouTube, and then the YouTube gets clipped to a podcast called Let's Appreciate. So I have a podcast too on Spotify. I like that name. Let's appreciate. What are we appreciating?

Capital. Capitalism. No, no. When stocks go up there, they appreciate in value. That's the phone, right? Yeah. Oh. No.

No. No. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh.

Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh.

Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. So tell us a bit about your background and why how'd you get so smart about that? You were on a credit desk. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So what does that mean?

Yeah. So I graduated in majored in finance economics and data analytics, graduated, moved out to Los Angeles to work for a company called Capital Group, and had a rotational program there where I supported a portfolio manager, sat on a credit desk, but really worked in operations when I was on the credit desk. Just got to experience high-yield bonds.

And then I left that company to join another company where I spun out their investment education arm. And now I'm doing the creator finance founder thing full time. Cool. And what's a what's a credit desk for? It's like trading bonds. So when companies issue debt, they would go to this desk and be like, help us. You know, distribute this to the world, yeah. So you would have to like package it and make it appealing for other institutions to buy?

I didn't do that. Yeah, but like basically what they would do is just they would price out that credit and try to get it to out there. Yeah. Did you hate it? No, I thought it was really interesting. Like, how yield is super interesting. So I would watch the traders do what they did and try and understand exactly what it was about. And I did a little work in like credit derivatives also. And so all of this was during like March of 2020 as when I was on that desk.

So during the pandemic, when oil went negative and all that stuff. So it was just really interesting. It's like kind of like watch all that unfold, yeah. Is that around the time you started doing creator stuff? I started doing creator stuff back in January of 2021. So, but I've had a blog since I was in college about options trading. So, I've been doing this for a while.

Was that a Tumblr? No. It's unwordpress, which is even worse. Yeah. So, yeah. Have either of those things. Why is WordPress worse? Um, it's not popular.

Like, that was just a joke. Tumblr was also like a meme for... Yeah, that's where the gifts would get posted, right? Yeah. Kind of. Yeah. So it can aggregate for all kinds of weird things. Do you still do the vlog?

Yeah, yeah, so I have a sub-sac now. It's not about... Yeah, I mean, upgraded. But I still have KylaSkandalin.com, which is where all the old vlog posts are, where I was talking about trading, which is like all the old blog posts are, where I was talking about trading, which is pretty embarrassing. Were you talking about trades that you were making? How'd you do?

There's a reason I don't do it anymore. That's perfectly understandable. Can you give us what were some of your best and worst? If you can remember. Yeah, I mean, I was young and didn't really notice doing, but I got in on a Brazilian ETF, and that was pretty bad. I, that blew up right in my face.

And then I traded casinos, and that went well. Pen. No, Las Vegas stands. Oh, LVS, right? Yeah. Long or short? I was neutral. Yeah, it's where I placed neutral positions. Interesting. What is those called again? Iron condors, yeah. Were you long or short? I was neutral. Yeah, so I placed neutral positions.

Interesting, because- What is those called again? Iron condors usually. Iron condors. What is trading casinos? Like, I would trade the casinos. Like, I would trade the casinos names on the stock market. Yeah.

Yeah, be like you, I'm trading oil and gas. Yeah, I really trading Google, whatever. Yeah. I've never heard of that. I never talk about it like that, but yeah. Damn, iron condors though. So for the uninitiated, it are all sorts of different option strategies.

Yes. Iron condors, there's strangles. Strangles, straddles. Credit spreads. I like doing spreads. Yeah. I've gotten into those a little bit recently. Yeah.

Because it's basically you're buying whatever direction you want to go in. you're basically just getting a discount on the long side of it. So it's like, hey, why not? But you're capping your gains. Still, Emil's just staring at you. What the fuck are you talking about? I just, I was talking about some put spreads

that I bought on Tesla two weeks ago, but I talked about them last week. And I closed them out earlier this week, but then I re-initiated some put spreads again this week. On Tesla. Yeah, I just think it's time, baby. I think it's time. I think they're done.

They're not done. Do you want it to be time, or do you actually think it's time? I actually do. I think after the BYD headline about BYD, the Chinese company being, and did you hear about Ford? Yeah. Ford. I can't explain to the listener.

Yeah. Well, do you like to? They, they, their sales were up 35% year over year last quarter, I think. Yeah. And in just generally, I just, it's anecdotal. But for me, personally, it's that other electric cars seem like they're finally... You're like making the assumption that Tesla trades on the premise of electric cars, and it trades on the premise of Elon Musk.

You see what he tweeted this morning? We'd like to offer a congratulations to his twins. On his babies. Oh yeah, with babies. And he tweeted this morning about, should Tesla create a cargo van? Yeah, yeah. Yeah, he's like joking about it, which is awesome.

Yeah. Oh, a cargo van or like a minivan? I think he's a cargo van. I don't know. Oh, like a reference to the twins? Yeah, like families. Like he's like, I'm helping to populate Earth, you know. Yeah, I think he's like a big proponent

of having many kids. Sure seems that way. Yeah. In practice and he practices what he preaches. I just wonder what kind of dad he is. I can't imagine. I think an absent one. Yeah.

I think he said that he leaves the parenting to the mothers. So yeah, okay. Wait, what is my apology? Oh, we'll get to that. I don't remember. Man, my brain is... I'm kind of worried about you. If I have early onset dementia, I think you may.

That's terrifying. We're going to have to get you some like ginkgo buloba or something. Doesn't that do something for your brain? Yeah, it sounds like it. Kind of no. But you also really skirted around your whole, the Ford joke. You didn't explain it to anyone. Oh, yeah, I thought you were going to talk about that.

Well, yesterday in the car. Well, so here's, go ahead. Kyla was complaining. It's not me if you don't want to. What are his complaining? Well, you were saying that sometimes people will comment on your videos, and they'll be arguing with you, but agreeing with you.

And you're like, this is the weirdest way to, you're like, I don't know what to say, because we're agreeing, but you, it's like different reality is over and happening. And then you had said something about Ford and made a point about it and then Ben, 30 minutes later, made it back to you. I had to get my phone and I was like,

wow, did you guys see this Ford Ford, 35% deliveries up. And you just went, I just said that. Yeah, I know, I was super easy. So you had like a real life reply guy. Yeah. I wish that was a one off anomaly, but this is why I tell people to seriously don't smoke pot in your early 20s.

Don't. Or what are your early teens? Early teens. A lot of people smoke pot when they're like 12, 13, 14. Jesus Christ, not me. And if you're even, if you have access to it, you get... Yeah, that's impressive. Yeah, that's impressive for sure.

You don't smoke pot at all, do you? No. Yeah, good's impressive for sure. You don't smoke pot at all, do you? No. Yeah, good. It's too strong. Anyway, are you good? I did. I did. I woke, I got woken up at four in the morning by a police helicopter just roaring over my house and then doing a big and then just hovering, right? Some people broke into a business right nearby so I was woken up by that and then I was checking futures and then I had to pee. So anyway, the, uh, the responsibility thing. I was waiting for you for you. You can remember when I say, okay, you're, you're definition of recession. Oh, yeah. So I would like

to get into that. But so I was looking into it last night. Uh-huh. I think you maybe go off some kind of British definition. Uh, uh, uh one that we wanted to lead off kick off here with, because the reason we wanted to have you on mainly was the subject matter, rather, has been about the recession. And you've written extensively about it. You've been talking about it a lot.

You are gunning for one. You just keep telling people that you hope that you said of your success. Put people out of work. I want there to be carnage. Yeah. You got to do it back to it. No, I was just really shocked because like that's I got quote tweeted into oblivion and that's like what they got quoted. Sorry, not there being a recession.

like what they're like. You got quoted? Quote, is there a living? Sorry, not there being a recession? No, so I had that piece and I called it a vibe session and like people on Twitter were just like, really not happy with that terminology, which is- Oh, you called the recession in general a vibe. Well, so like, yeah, I mean, like it's a whole thing where,

you know, the economic data doesn't say that we're in a recession. And so I was like, oh, it's like a vibe session. Like people are feeling like the vibes are off. And people were like, you're a horrible person, you know, for saying that, which is, I guess makes sense. But when you were like, oh, she's gunning for a recession, I just had like PTSD. Yeah. The reason we've invited you here is because we were one of those people quickly thing.

Yeah. We wanted to do it in real life. Yeah. No, it was insane. They were like, let's take away the 19th Amendment, all this stuff. And I was like, I'm so afraid. So good that one, that a lot of so many to vote. That's what they were saying. Yeah. That's a really normal response to someone when they, when you disagree with them. No, yeah, and I like, I made the mistake of being like, wow, this went to a horrible

section of Twitter. And then people started quote-treating that and they were like, you're garbage, you're a horrible person. And I was like, I'm so sad. I'm really sorry that that happened. I'm horrible. No, this is so normal. Yeah, but it shouldn't be.

Well, I mean, like, hello. Yeah, it's life. Also, I feel like being in the finance world, there shouldn't be that much of a controversial thing to be, nothing you're saying should be that controversial. The subject matter, well, I guess it can be. You've been on Fendtweut for a while. Yeah.

Everything is controversial. Yeah. Well, and there's a lot of... That's the way to you call the recession a vibe session, my man. Yeah. Oh, man. What made you take it over? I'll say I coined that term.

No way. So like now everybody's targeting me and are tagging me and articles where people are talking about vibes. Like crypto people are hiring vibe officers and people will be like at Kyla and then like I think some article was released the other day talking about like emotions and so like all this stuff is now coming out and it's been coming out for a while like how emotions are driving a lot of what the market is doing, and people are like, look, vibes. Talking about like consumer sentiment and all that basically?

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, literally. Well, so should we, so this is probably good before we even get that. Yeah, sorry, I just had to explain myself. About, oh no, no, please, we'll give you plenty of time to address the comments. What's a recession? Well, what do you think it is? I have been told and taught that a recession technically is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

But that's because Ben went to school in London and now I went to Cal State Long Beach. But for some reason, he has this British ass recession definition. And normally I would do, I would just carry myself away into a very bad British. Okay, so I'm on the edge of my seat. What is a recession? Yeah, me too. Well, so a lot of people think it's two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but that's not true. I think somebody said that was made up by a professor, but basically, if you go to Edinburgh, who's the, you know, Definer of Recessions,

they say it's a prolonged period of a decline in economic activity. So it can be anywhere from like a month, which it was in March of 2020, or it can be anywhere from a while, like it was in 2008. So it's just, it's not necessarily two quarters. It's, it's a longer time frame than that, or it can be shorter. So like they look at, like depth, duration, all that stuff, and they look at a bunch of different economic indicators to determine if a session is happening. What are some of those economic indicators?

Like personal income outlays, different payrolls, like things like that. So basically how the economy is doing. Yeah, yeah, it's a bunch of different metrics. And it's kind of funny, because they definitely do it based off vibes, because if you go to the website They're like, you know, sometimes we look at these metrics and sometimes we look at other metrics

Well, that was so when I was looking at it last night. I was like it feels very Yeah, a lot more nebulous than you would imagine and it Yeah, and it just kind of reminds me of the Everyone was was it Cardi B, she had the tweet of like, oh. Are we in a recession? And I think it's like, well, we don't quite know when we'll actually hit it, I guess, until they tell us.

Yeah, well, like, we have some estimates coming out, I think in a week for, you know, Q2 GDP. But the reason that we had a negative print in GDP in the first quarter was because like inventory data was super wacky. And so like because of the pandemic, everything has been sort of thrown off course. And if you look at the GDP data from the first quarter, demand was still really strong. Like consumers are still out there spending, which is the most important component of GDP. Consumer spending is 70% of GDP growth. So like things are still relatively okay,

but because of the pandemic, some of the prints are funky. Quarter over quarter year over year, kind of. Quarter year. Yeah, so like if you look back to Q4 2021, like that was a pretty big GDP print, and it just started to match that every time. Yeah.

Right. Oh God, there goes my brain. No, no, that's not in favor of that. If you throw them, if you throw them a life preserver, that's... Oh, no, I know what I was going to say. It reminds me of one of those, kind of like how the creator of the term GIF originally pointed as GIF, but then through the, there's some rule that, well, it doesn't matter because one society decides how award is pronounced. That's just, that's just how it's actually pronounced.

And he gave it up. He said, yeah, I said it was pronounced, Jim. Yeah, but he was wrong. I don't want to get into that. That's true. He was. It stands for, what does it stand for? Graphic. So you're starting with, good. Good, graphic. Sure. Yeah. Anyway, does it matter if everybody's pre-existing notion of a recession is the two quarters

of consecutive negative growth when that does happen? And then it just, do you get what I'm getting at? Yeah, people's brains are breaking right now, for sure. Yeah, because like everyone's like, well, I think that we're in one and things are really bad and not good because like the stock market is down so much and because it's so hard to get a home. And like, there's such a mismatch in the economic data

and reality, right? Like, you can't really go to a regular person and be like, you should be feeling good about yourself because industrial production metrics are strong. Like, that's just like, okay, like, no, I shouldn't be. Don't worry about it. The job came back pretty good. Yeah. And like, back pretty good. Yeah.

Yeah. And like they have been. And that's part of the problem is that like a lot of this stuff just doesn't make sense. And if you go to the average person who has experience, you know, stagnant wages and mega-inflation, it's just not going to be comforting to be like that. Not only that, they seem to be kind of preparing everyone for a lot of pain. You know, it was literally just yesterday, it might have been the Wall Street Journal.

It was this article, like, basically anyone younger than 40. That's us. Is in for a lot of trouble. Like there's gonna be, their jobs are gonna be on the line. Like they're gonna start calling the herd. I mean, even employers, you know, you had Mark Zuckerberg coming out and talking about.

Not hiring as much. They're not only not hiring as much as they're going to get rid of a lot of people. And they said, you know, the culture's going to change a little bit. And he was like, yeah, he was like, I'm excited about it. You know, we're going to be the people who can't perform in this high paced thing aren't going to be around anymore. And we're going to see who can sink or swim. So I mean, it's, it's, they're putting out this message that like, well, here comes the pain. Yeah. Like, I mean, they're putting out this message that, well, here comes the pain. Yeah. I mean, I think there's two components to that, right?

The Fed has definitely been prepping people for pain because the Fed is in between a rock and a hard place right now. If they don't act, if they don't do something, it's going to be super bad in terms of how they're viewed, their credibility. And their credibility is literally what drives most of the impact that they have on the market. So if they lose that, that's a really big deal. And then in terms of like what Zuck is doing, tech is going through a really big trouble right now just because of the broader sell-off in the market. And you know, people are like, oh, we're going to go into value because it's safer.

So a lot of growth stocks have had a big sell-off. And I think meta, right? Like they've just not, they've not done the meta versus sort of just give them time. I have an Oculus and I never use it. Well, that's like, of course, he's going to want to fire people, you know, like nobody's using his little headset. I do think that there are practical applications for it, like for surgeons, for example, to practice doing surgery. But he went like, surgeons, for example, to practice doing surgery. But he went like, yeah, but we're not all going to be living and working and shopping in

the meta metaverse. Who was it that just came out with a report that was it like credit suede or JP someone came out with a report that like, oh, spending in the metaverse is going to exceed a trillion dollars. Kenzie McKenzie did that. Yeah. Give me a fuck. Well,, think about their incentives, right? Like, they collect fees from consulting on the metaverse.

So of course, they're going to be like, play in the metaverse, everybody. Yeah. Give us money so we can tell you how to do freaking power points. On the note of the Fed, I wanted to talk about their credibility. I find it interesting what they're doing now.

I think that now, how do I phrase this? They are being so stern and unrelenting in their messaging going forward about we are dedicated to making inflation, we're dedicated to driving to dropping inflation and they're not gonna let up until, like momentum is clearly trending downward for inflation. And a lot of people I think are gonna be mad at them in the interim, including myself. But, you know, as you mentioned yesterday, that they do have such a hard job ahead of them.

And they have, for the most part, kind of navigated this whole thing since COVID with relative grace. Grace, yeah. And because their reputation is so damaged, they cannot afford to be wishy-washy. Yeah. And, well, yeah.

I mean, like in the minutes that were released yesterday, they didn't mention financial stability or liquidity, both of which are really big concerns because they're really focused on getting inflation down. But part of the problem with that is the economy is slowing down. So if they go like hot and heavy, you know, raising rates, that's going to be not good if the economy keeps on slowing down already. So the worry is that they will hike us into a recession.

And they've hinted at that through saying the word restrictive. Like if they say the word restrictive, that essentially is an analogy for going into a session. Yeah. But they have to. Right. And Michael Burry, I don't know why I'm even referred. Well, because he's a smart guy, I guess. Yeah, just keep going. Okay. So Michael Burry, who was saying that, who famously just like tweets and then deletes him, like calm down, man. You're like a teenager on Tumblr, my right?

I guess my guy is doing things. Back, maybe. He's, he was tweeting that, you know, we're now, we are so hopelessly just tied to everything the Fed does and says. Yeah. And I mean, that's not an original idea. I'm, no. My favorite trader, Stan Druckenmiller has always been, I can't wait, I gotta get him on here.

We gotta get him on here. Yeah, he's good. He's so lovely. He seems like a real down-earth guy started from nothing and now he's here, but he says that's like Drake, like Drake Jeff Bezos. Did you see that? No, Jeff Bezos commented on Drake's Instagram post. What did he say? He said that started from the heart. When did he say that yesterday? And Drake comments back. I think I think it was real. I'm sorry if I'm like spreading misinformation, but

Drake's day. The Drake was like Jeff gets it Jeff gets it. Oh God. He's just trying to go on the dick rocket Drake. Did you see the Jeff not to get too far off track Did you see Jeff on the like space mountain alone when he was all the yeah? That had to have been for a good reason. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. What do you? What do you? What do you? He had to, maybe he's thinking about buying the right stuff. Can you buy it in Disney World? Buy it in individual, right?

Well, anyway. What was the Michael Burry? Michael Burry was saying, basically, the Fed is probably gonna hike up rates and the market's gonna be in trouble and then they're gonna swoop in to save the day again and they're gonna drop rates and then that's gonna, you know,

it's just gonna be the next cycle. That's so, yeah. That's how cycles work. And the Fed has this horrible job because they can only really do one thing related to demand. Isn't that crazy? And it seems like the rest of the government refuses to do anything to address any supply issues.

I wish we would ask scream at the Fed as we plunge into a recession. I want to know why Jerome's mouth is so tiny. No, we don't see is we literally just did this. We did. I'm like actually worried about you. Man I really do need to like go or do you know? Luke or Zach did we not do that before? Okay, take it off. Take it off though. Take it off. We can't we can't get enough of his tiny little Butthole. I like him. You like it. Yeah, I could say you like his mouth. It's gonna be like okay I'm gonna talk after the show. Yeah, fuck. I'm in trouble It's

Take away my card my life I get car sick. I can't take a uber's everywhere You can be such a mean look. This is part of the course. Anyway, you like him. You felt like he handled everything as best he could. Yeah, I mean, I get DMs accusing me of being like a fed sympathizer and stuff,

but I think that they're doing the best that they can. And I think like when you hear him speak, he sounds like he really does care, you know? And I think he's like, imagine being a fed chair during, you know, two presidents he's and during the pandemic and during a war. Like, that's just a lot to process and to try and work around. I think that they definitely could have moved faster than they did on raising rates. But I also think there is things like your points around, you know, what's fiscal policy doing? Like literally what what's the government do in like what are they? And that was because they had lack of leadership

clarity at the Fed. And so that made it difficult for them to implement different policies. And then yeah, I mean, there's just a lot of stuff that went wrong. Like, he didn't know if Joe Biden was going to reappoint him. Yeah. Yeah. And then also, they had that, like, the mandate, right? So they have, they're responsible for price stability and maximum employment. And so they were like, we got to wait until we're certain that the labor market is okay before we go hike and rates.

And they were not sure if the labor market was okay. And then the labor market turned out to be okay. And they were like, all right, but inflation was already raging, you know? So, yeah. Can you explain maximum employment? Yeah, I mean, it's like kind of fluffy too, but basically it's the point out

which the economy is like at maximum. We know we need a certain amount of people to be out of a job. We just know exactly where it is. Yeah, right. We're doing that right now, three- And we're trying to find out. It's really low, yeah. And like right. What's it at right now, three- And we're trying to find it. It's really low.

Yeah. And with max, so it used to be full employment and now it's maximum. And maximum takes into account like diversity, like making sure that everybody is employed rather than just certain people. So it's that component too. Maximum employment sounds more fun.

It's a little extreme. Yeah. Maximum employment. Oh yeah, dude. It sounds like a ride Jeff Bezos would ride. I's a little extra. Yeah. Yeah. It's maximum employment. Oh yeah, dude. Sounds like a ride. Jeff Faizel's would ride. I think he would ride maximum employment. You don't think so. He would ride like they need so many employees. Oh, they're firing people though. Yeah. Like how many? I don't know exactly. But

yeah, the Amazon's letting people go. It's stuff out there. We were we were sharing an article with each other where they were they had leaked memos from Amazon. Did you see they were talking about how they were worried they were going to run out of employees? No. Because they've hired and let go and fired so many people. Yeah. Oh, yeah. And they only have such a pool of people they can pull from.

That they're like, holy shit, by 2024, we might not have any more people to hire. You got to have robots. That's max employment. Yeah, man, that's crazy. Powered by Amazon. Yeah. That's max employment. The other thing that we wanted to talk about, another big indicator of recession, like an

old one is the bond yield curve. And you coming from you love bonds. Yeah. You say it's so accusatory. I don't know about you love bonds. Well, you're I got an email here saying that you love bonds. So which ones are your favorite? You like that? You pay attention to the 10 and the two. Yeah, I know I pay attention to the whole curve, right? We have to. So for those of you who don't know, like, I know, but so other people might not, but I do. Yeah, I do. But can you explain?

You're so, I swear to God, I know. You're really good at explaining things. So perhaps you could let people know what the, you have the 10 and the two are more than just your hands when you're doing it. Yeah, baby, or nine and three You can do 93 if you drive that's a California thing. Yeah, okay, I just do six o'clock And you do if you move from ten and two. Yeah, get out you failed

I also do about seven seven p.m. Just with my left knee That's the p.m. That's the California way to drive. Anywho, what is the yield curve? I mean, it's just like where different bonds are issued, right? So like there's all these different durations for bonds. So like you have three months, you have two years, you have 10 years, you have 20 years, it took 30 years. And so like that's the entire curve.

And like companies and the government issues debt at those points in order to finance their operations. So the treasury curve is what the government does. So the government is going to issue different bonds and get that finance so they can do different projects, so they can pay different bills. And the deal is with the yield curve is if certain parts of it invert. So like let's say that two-year yields are higher than 10-year yields. That means that people are not feeling super good

about the future, right? And so that inversion is not good because you would want it to be upward sloping because that means that people are expecting the government's like too good stuff and get things figured out. Right, these are hopeful about the future. Right, exactly.

And when you say the curve, this is how it's plotted on a graph. Right. That's the visualization of where the... And prices and yields are inverted. So it's like it can be a little bit confusing. Because the lower the price of the bond the higher the yield, and vice versa, the higher the price of the bond, the lower the yield. So right, so just yesterday, was it yesterday? It's been for a while, yeah. The inversion occurred. The two tens, yeah. The two years yield has surpassed that of the 10-year.

Yeah, yeah. And like this happens. And it's okay, but like once the three months, 10-year inverts, that's kind of like when people are like, oh, yeah, eggs. But you know, it's okay. But like, it's normally an indicator for a recession. It doesn't necessarily mean that a recession is here, but it's just a sign of like people just not feeling good also.

I got to say, I don't want to get any hate, but I'm still in a think of a recession might be a vibe session. Yeah, that's right. We definitely don't coin that term here first. So bring all the hate to us. Didn't the yield curve invert in 2018? Yeah, like, I mean, this thing is always inverted. Yeah, exactly.

Yeah, it inverts all the time. It's goofy. And it's one of those things where it might have been an indicator. I mean, it still can't be, but it just feels like an outdated metric. Yeah, right? Kind of. Yeah, I mean, like the whole like yeah, I mean, everything is kind of weird. Like you could get into the super technical stuff where, you know, like what what's going on in Japan impacts the US Treasury market because the yen is like falling off a cliff and Japan is one of the biggest buyers of US Treasuries. And so like, that's kind of funky, right? And then it's like, what is the demand for US Treasuries? Like, is there liquidity demand from different companies,

like different asset managers in order to buy the US Treasuries in the first place? And so like, there's all these different things that impact how Chargers move. What do you think about the people who express concern? Cause zero hedge, for example, who for those of you who don't know, zero hedge is famous. One of the biggest doom and gloom blogs out there. They love the name names.

Yeah. Has me blocked on Twitter, along with Michael Burry, along with Sven, what's his name, Heinrich, all the permabairs have me blocked. I message Michael Burry every day and I say, unblocked Ben. You should, because I would love to have him on the show. I think he'd be a great guest. But it seems like with the proliferation of TikTok and I wouldn't say micro influencers,

but I'm getting a lot more Pabairs on TikTok on my feed. And a popular refrain seems to be that with interest rates rising, that means that the United States debt is going to become increasingly impossible to service. What do you think of that? I mean, like, maybe, right? Sure. But like, they'll manage it. I think, yeah, I mean, like, I definitely Sure. But they'll manage it. I think, yeah, I mean, I definitely think it's something

to watch out for and it's something of the fed-paced engine to you. But the fed and the treasury are essentially buddy buddies. Like the fed is a suedo suedo. Suedo? Suedo. I wish you were suedo. Oh, I think you'll have for that.

It kind of sounds like suedo. Yeah. Suedo got romantic. So it's that government entity. So they definitely know what's going on within the side of the government and they're not gonna press the US out of its own debt. But to your point about permabairs, that sells.

If you're telling people that the world is ending and you should subscribe to my newsletter because of that, they're going to, right? And they always have so much data to back it up. They always have impressive arguments. They're always very articulate in how just they lay out, they really make me every time so gullible and I am so easily impressionable.

And when I read this stuff, especially when the market is deep red, I'm like, oh, fuck, I got a buy a bunker. Because that's how they always make you feel. Like the world is about to end. But according to ZeroHeadge, the world has been, yeah, the world has been ending for, well, just keep calling, you'll eventually get it right. Exactly. I was reading, this is kind of an old thing, but for those of you who don't know.

In addition to the talk about printing the trillion dollar coin and whatnot, it would be fun. I was reading an article about how we could maybe pin all our debt onto a single person and then kill that person. You know, someone who's dying already. Someone who's already done. That's a real thing, they're like weighing. It's a real thing that's technically, technically possible, right?

It's all good, I don't know. You're smarter than us. I'm not gonna advocate for that. I'm not asking you. I need it. But would it be possible, theoretically, like if they were to put it all in the mean- I was still like, I'm not asking you. I need it. But would it be possible, theoretically, like if they were to put it all in the middle? I was still like, no, right?

Please. Please. I'm begging you. Ready to go? I'll do it. I'll be like Bruce Willis at the end of Armageddon. That would be kind of cool though, to be the savior of the country,

to like give me all his debt and then push me off the cliff. I would ask them to put me, strap me to like a rocket. Yeah. Like blast me up into the moon. It least send me out the pool way. Send me directly into the sun. You'd burn up long before you even hit the sun. Not me, Barry. The corona would eat you up.

So that's possible though, right? Uh, um. I'm like, uh. Welcome to our podcast. I don't think that like China would be very happy about that. Japan would not be very happy about that. You're up with, right? Yeah, not be very happy.

So, yeah, but you're not think there's nothing they could do about it. Yeah, what do they do? They could consume the body. Go after our families. Like, yeah, they would. So it is possible with domestic debt, maybe. Oh, like, yeah. Yeah.

Look, Ben, these are like private student loans, man. These things have been cosine. There's no way. Yeah. Yeah, man. Let's do it with student loans, then. Put them all on you. Yeah.

Pour more on, I don't fucking care Oh, it's gonna say you could file for bankruptcy, but you can't just start from bankruptcy. Yeah, that was a Joe Biden thing That's fun Joe Biden. So what else did we have here? Why and we we caught the the years? What? Well Joe Biden actually his tweet did lower What? Well, Joe Biden actually his tweet did lower gas prices. Oh yeah, we worked for as much shit as we gave him. It worked.

He finally stepped up in Miracle of Miracle. We did it these damn old company. Yeah, oil is so goofy right now. It sucks because even when oil drops, it's like gas prices in California just make a higher low. It's sticky, yeah. It's sticky. It fucking drives me insane. I know I saw someone tweeted like the chart

and it plunging and they were like, well, it'll just be, you know, 10 days before we start seeing some lower gas and I was like, okay, I can hold out. I got like a quarter tank of gas. And then I was like, this isn't fucking coming. It's, carloir gas prices.

Why are they? Well, because we were talking a little bit about oil and gas. Oil is so, yeah. What's going on? So, okay, so like, it's actually, I don't know. And there's a guy named Roy Johnson who does a great job covering oil. And I tagged him in a tweet this morning because crude production, so crude oil production, we were expecting negative 1 million barrels for this recent, I don't know the exact amount

of time, but negative 1 million barrels of crude production and it turned out to be positive 8 million. Oh shit, that's great. So they overproduced and underestimated, or underestimated, overproduced on oil. And so I tagged Wharty and I was like, because he's an oil analyst and I was like, what? And he was like, yeah, I don't know. And so it's just, oil is so wild right now

because you have Russia, right? Who is just waging war on Ukraine. We've heard. I don't know if you've seen it. And that's really bad. And then you have Saudi Arabia who's like, we can't produce sending more oil. Sorry, everybody. We've heard. I don't know if you've seen it. That's really bad. And then you have Saudi Arabia, who's like, we can't produce any more oil. Sorry, everybody, like, wink wink, nudge, because we're at Spirits' capacity.

We're gonna hit that. And they're like, Joe Biden say we're good. Yeah, right. Yeah, and so Joe Biden is like, you know, hinting that he's gonna go over there and like be friends with them. And then he, like, this administration, no offense, it just has no concept of how gas prices work because you can't just like,

well, you can't just like, tweed. And he like, oh man, you better lower those prices guys or else, even though it did work. But basically, oil is going or was going down. Now it's back up today. I don't know when this goes out. Who knows tomorrow? So yesterday for you guys today for us.

And from the from the past. Yeah. So oil was up like 6% this morning, but it was down yesterday. It's right around that $100 line. And part of the reason that it's going down is because people are like, oh, I think that we're going to go into a recession.

So city group has like a $65 price target on oil and it's at $100 right now. And it's just like, nobody really knows what's going on. Goldman released a note literally saying, like, we don't really know what's going on. Like, I love all these guys coming out. I'm just like Jerome Powell famously. Yeah, that was a great fun.

We understand how we'll be understanding about inflation. Unreal. And Goldman is coming up and just being like, I don't know what to do. OK. And the oil guys are like, we thought it was negative 1 million, and somehow we got eight. Help us!

You guys are doing nothing. It's just crazy. Negative 1 million sounds so made up, too. Like, hey, how much oil? Negative a million? I don't know. Someone's child show up to work that day and make that estimation.

But I think that is part of the fun of this show for us is pointing out that, you know, how the house of cards that we've built and, you know, we've built these administrations of experts and it's, as scary as it is, it can be fun to watch everyone squirm. Nobody holds anybody to account if their price targets are off. They just readjust them. Like who the fucking cares?

Nobody's, well, except for Kathy Wood. She gets kind of taken to the wood shed recently. Well, like, her shit is insane. Well, yeah, she goes a little too hard in the paint, you know, she's like, what if we had GDP grow by 50%, you know. Oh, man. Is that, that's so, it's that Catholic optimism or Christian optimism, I don't know if she's Catholic.

Yeah. But I don't know what she is. She's just like, I'm like, We're in our Vegas, Bill Fong, yeah. She's like, they believe that they're guided by God. God. Yeah. I mean, the art which yeah, which is certainly possible. Sure. Yeah. They may be. Maybe that's, yeah, God is bullish on GDP growth in.

God, on America. I mean, we got them on the money. It's kind of got to live up to it. Did you see that the we, we went over there to make a deal with a ran on oil and then just turned around and said, nah, we're not going to do it with sanction you more. A while ago. Was that this week, like two days ago for the listener? Ben, you can't bring it up and then go, I don't know, you tell me. Well, because I, maybe, I'm not going to get into it. It's a good thing, but

You're like so we did that no, I was gonna say maybe I dreamt it. No, no, this happened this happened I just wasn't sure like yeah cuz Iran is under sanctions because nuke's and so or nuclear power So yeah, I mean like in their big producer of oil as well But yeah, that's the whole thing is like we're going back to, or the United States is going back to all these countries that they're not supposed to be like technically friends with and being like, hey, we hear you have oil. Sorry, we were at that Tumblr post about that. The Biden administration was very much like,

we're taking a hard line stance from Saudi Arabia and being like, you know, what they did with Kishogis, Unacceptable blah blah blah. And now they can't have to be like, we were fucking joking, dude. You have to do this and yeah. Hey, MBS. It was a bit, dude. What? So the EU just yesterday, again, two days ago for the viewer. It was two days ago, actually. Oh, it's so three days ago for tomorrow, but two days ago for the for the viewer. It was two days ago actually. Oh, it's so three days ago for tomorrow, but two days ago for us today here in the present. The past for you. I love doing that. You're stressing me out. But they reclassified gas as green energy.

Did they do that to get around something legally? It would be easier to reclassify gas as green versus... Yeah, right, because they're in energy crisis, because they were super reliant on Russia. You know, that didn't work out super well. Now they're trying to figure stuff out, and their whole thing was like, oh, we'll go through renewables, we'll make sure that we're green energy here and here up. And now that is having to be backpuddled just because of like the not having enough energy. Yeah, in their reclassifying nuclear as...

Which I think is good, yeah, because, I mean, if Germany hadn't shut down their plants, they would be in a different situation than they are. And what, they'd be worse off? They'd be better off. Oh, okay, so why'd you say they would be fucked? Well, because they're going to be, they're about to be cold. They're shutting down the pipeline. Don't do some work on it. And it's probably not going to go back. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,

no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, Like, there, Russia is going to shut down Nord Stream 2. There's Nord Stream 1, which is like this big pipeline into Germany and everyone's like, well, Russia, reopen it, who knows? Right, right, it's not necessarily, they're not like permanently shutting, it's like a maintenance thing.

It's maintenance. Okay, but we still don't know. But, well, they might, they've been musings that they might not turn it back. Sure, yeah. But that is not the plan. Yeah, we gotta get, that's, you guys are, you guys are skeptical it back. Sure, yeah. But that is not the plan. Yeah. We gotta get, that's...

You guys are skeptical on Russia? Russia? Yeah. I don't know. I don't know why, man. They haven't done anything recently, you know. Ben just showed me a text on the table that said, you can never trust a Russian, which is crazy.

That's certainly not true. I didn't say that. You can trust them. It's not the people, right? It's like what's happening from a leadership level. Oh, sure. I'm familiar. Well, we have been raised on movies where Russians are the bad guys. Probably not you so much. She's younger than us. Yeah, but they still... Yeah, a lot of top's gonna die. She got a lot of... Well, I don't want to tell who the bad guys in movies were.

We all know who they were. It shifted to like, then it was like Middle Eastern. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. When we were kids, it was like, these goddamn ruches. Yeah. Well, I'm just thinking of Rocky.

Three? Yep. Rocky three? They might be four, actually, but I'd be four with what's his name? Who in real life is I think? I think he's like a scientist super smart. Sorry we're leaving. No, Kyle behind here. I know you know what. No, it happens though. I don't know why.

I'll tell you why. He said no this is so common. What? What? People calling me Kayla. I actually it was so sad. I wrote a blog post about this when I was in college, because all the professors would be like Kayla, and I'd be like, I'm, you know, and I wouldn't crack some of them because it was just so, he called me Kayla.

No, I didn't. Well, so it's a, it sucks too, because I'm sympathetic to to that because my name is Emile and everyone gets it wrong and it's a weird. What do they call you? The weirdest thing is that people like they just never see the name EMIL so they see it and they just like their brain just finishes and they go Emileo and it's like how did you add two letters to it right guy? They're just like it must be cut off. Yeah, no this is really good to

spare yourself the embarrassment and the humiliation of getting our guests name wrong. It happens to me too. Wait so in college people does that do you know? I mean, my whole life, yeah, my whole life I've been getting called their own name. Yeah. Close. It's close. I have like people life of being called around me. Say close, it's close. I have people I know in my life that still, like they just call me Neil, and I'm like, it's been too. Neil?

Because I say, ha ha ha ha ha. Go on. Like I'll be like I'm a meal, and they're like, great, I don't know what that is, but I know Neil. His name must be Neil. And then like, we're not close enough where I'm like, eh, it doesn't really matter.

I'll let him call me Neil. And then it's like, damn, it's been like five years and I've just let this go. And I can't say now, oh, I'm not Neil. My friend's wife is named Alia, spelled A-L-I-E-H, and like two, three years into knowing this woman. I just had a brief lapse where I just was like, suddenly not confident that I knew it,

and I was like, is it Alia? Called her Alia. And she was like, it's Alia, and I went, I knew it, I just had a lapse. You know, sometimes you can't. I did that to, I've done that multiple times. I had another friend like, this isn't the one, but this is just the name that's popping in my head.

Leah and like, Leah, Leah, Leah, it's easy to do. And then you get corrected. You get a little knock on the head. You know what you need to do? In Greece, they have like five names. Because... And I remember what they do is they named the first born son after the dad's dad and second born son after the mom's dad.

And I remember my parents explaining that, my mom explained it to me and I said, but wouldn't everyone just end up having the same name? And she was like, no, no, no, it works out. But then we went to Greece and I was like, literally everyone here is the same name. There's like five fucking names. It's like Spiritos, Jorgos, Panioti, like Panioti.

Isn't that a bread? Oh, that's, no, Panioti, it's a name. But what's the bread? The one that the Italian's eat. Feed up? No, no, no, the big loaf that eat on Christmas. It's like a gift, it comes in a box. Oh, a Panicata?

Yeah! Panicata, thanks. You fucking Gumbah. It's like a gift it comes in a box. Oh a panicada You fucking goomba I can say that It's the bad guys on Mario anyway The bad guys super Mario brother. It's the little thing. They're called goumball. I'm so sorry about him. I'd like to say he's not normally like this but he is. Oh yeah Gumball, there you go. I thought that was a slur or something. It is a slur.

And that's what they're called. Why are they called a slur? Well that's the thing that's funny about Super Mario Brothers. It's a Japanese made game that's based on Italian stereotypes. They seriously were just like, let's go up with the video game about an Italian. And what's the Italian's name gonna be? I feel like...

When I go back to New Jersey, my friends are gonna be like, you shouldn't let them talk to you like that. No, I've been listening to your show. I don't like the way he talks to you. I lived with an Italian. He told me it's fine There's one word for a time that you can't say we've gone through this to I'm so like I'm so worried about him Like we're just leaving I Feel like I'm like with my aging wife and no things like And I'm just like yeah, no, there's one you can't really say, honey.

Well, so not to jump around, but you know what telemarketers used to get my last name wrong all the time. My last name is Khan, and it's spelled C, A. Oops, C, A, H, N, and they would say Chan, every time, is Mr. Chan home? I'm like, you don't know, you don't know Arla. Yeah, it must be tough. Have your name be wrong. Yeah, it must be tough Getting your name miss pronounced two days in a row. Yeah, that's why

Okay, no, I'm I'm so pissed. I'm so sorry. Why are you pissed? I'm so pissed. I'm so sorry. Why are you pissed? Oh, I'm also pissed at you. I'm also pissed at you. This is humiliating. So, FOMC. Why are you pissed? I can only, I don't experience anything but anger. I don't know how to.

I don't know how to do that. I don't know how to do that. There's other feelings. We've got, we've got only a few minutes left here. Should we talk about that? So let's try to put a nice ribbon on the recession and everything. Do you think that one is coming truly?

Like what is your take on it? Yeah, I mean, I've written a lot about it, right? And so I've written three pieces on it. And in each piece that I write, I'm like, okay, you know, it's looking worse than worse than worse. And. Great. Great. But I think, you know, things are okay. It's just, it's looking worse than worse than worse and worse and and Great. But I think like, you know, things are okay.

It's just, it's, So I mean, that's the thing. We've been watching this like, it's changed, even the way that it feels like when we were watching inflation, it was like the transitory transitory transitory. Oh my God, it's getting bad, it's getting bad. And then, but it was the same thing with, you know, we're trying to do this soft landing, soft landing.

And then they said soft-ish landing. And now it's just like, we might just fucking crash. Well, in like the Fed is so intent on raising rates to signal that they're very serious about inflation, right? And then you think that is concerning. But you're seeing, you know, labor metrics are still relatively okay, but company hiring plans are looking not good. Earnings expectations are really strong, but everybody's like, maybe they shouldn't be, right? So there's a lot of mix in the economic data that makes it super confusing.

And I think the worse that people feel, the more likely that we are to end up in a recession, just because of people pulling back on spending, which is a huge portion of GDP growth, companies pulling back on spending, huge portion of GDP growth, companies pulling back on spending, huge portion of GDP growth. And the government is being a little bit not spending and that's also a portion of GDP growth.

It's like government spending. So there's a lot of stuff that goes into it. This is a, like, you don't have to answer if you don't want to because I feel like it's like there's no good answer. But we get it sometimes. I feel like people are like, well, what should I do if a recession comes? Do you have any? Yeah, I mean, it's tough, right? So like, there's the investing component and then there's like the personal component. So investing, if you're, you know, a younger

person like in your 20s or your 30s or your 40s event, your timeframe for holding stocks is probably going to be like 10 to 20 years. And so you just kind of have to hang on and realize that stuff like this happens, which is like a really not the best thing to say and I don't like saying it because it's like suck it up, but you know, but that's a component of it too is like you just have to deal with downturns. From the personal component, like if we do inter-assession, that's when, you know, friends and family begin to lose their jobs or like you could lose your job. And that's really scary. So I think like there, it's just like you have to maybe like re-skill or like think about what you want to be working on and sort of align yourself towards that. So that's a harder portion of that question answer.

Maybe start hanging around your boss's office and just saying stuff like, boy, what would you do without me? Pretty important around here. Things might fall apart if you ever had to get rid of me. What we need is to get everybody to go out and spend, I don't know, 500 bucks. Go buck well. Well, so no, right? But that would be inflationary.

Oh, yeah. So it's, yeah, it's such a fine line to walk. And that's why the Fed's job is so hard is because they have to like, you know, if you think about, what's it called when the guys walk in between the canyons? Oh, tight. Is it tight-roping?

It's not tight-roping, it's like it's like it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, yeah, I think. So like, they? It's not tight, rugby. It's like it's not exciting. It's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's

like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's, right? Or well, he'll be like freaking out. But there's a lot that the Fed does in between meetings to try and like drive the narrative as well. But the main thing is that they have to control the narrative and that is why they're being so aggressive is to try and control. There's quotes coming up from these guys every day.

Yeah. It's insane. They're talking a lot. Where are they that they're just getting quoted every day? They're doing different conferences. God damn, these guys are celebrities. Yeah, the famous Roombao quote, he was just like on a panel.

Well, that was actually, that was the ECB beating of central banks. Oh, okay. Yeah, so like that, yeah, European central banks. For the list. And so that was when they were all like, Lagarde, I think that's what you say for less

name, a legard was like, we're never going back to the, essentially the economic regime that we were in for the past 10 years. Oh, yeah. So there was a lot of stuff that came out of that meeting. But like, the problem is, is like, a lot of stuff comes out every single day. Like, in that, it makes it so confusing for people because they're like, oh, things are good things are bad. It's just, um, that felt really, really redundant. So, but yeah, I good, things are bad. It's just, that felt really redundant, so.

But. Yeah. I mean, that's the way it feels watching from home. You're like, I can't tell, I can't make heads or tails of this. Yeah, there's so much information out there and so much constantly coming out. What feels like very pertinent pressing news today by tomorrow or next week is already just, it's priced in. Yeah. If it's, if it hasn't already been priced in, by the time it comes out, it's already, well, the market has just taken that into account.

So there is, that's what hope that I have is that we've already dropped, the NASDAQ has dropped, what, 25%, 30% whatever it is, the spies don't, was that a burp? Yeah, I don't think that's right. I heard it in my ear, that doesn't think it was me. Yeah, yeah, no, maybe it was me. Sorry, sorry about that guy.

But there's part of me that thinks, well, maybe the worst of it is kind of priced in to an extent. That's what's always tricky. Is it priced in or is it not? I mean, yeah, there was a funny tweet. I forget who it was. It was, it was some finance guy, but he was talking about, he was tweeting about like, wait, so if, because jobs reports comes out tomorrow and he's like, if the jobs are good, is that good or bad? And everyone's like so confused. Because if it's, yeah, if bad news, if bad, yeah. I remember trading during that kind of market

where bad news was actually good news because it meant that the Fed was gonna keep its foot on the gas pedal. And good news is also good news because it just meant that things are improving. And it's very crazy making that all news is good news. That's what it was like from March of 2020 until basically like a few months ago. All news is good news. It's all good. Yeah, but I think this is the opposite. Yeah, now it's kind of...

Yeah, now it's like... If it's good, if it's a of, yeah, now it's like, if it's good, if it's a good print, it feels like, well, that's just because the bad print hasn't shown up yet. Yeah. And it's still lurking out there, so fuck. Yeah. Don't get too excited, things are still pretty bad.

Yeah, folks. Uh, what else do we have? Hey, do you see the minions, boo-ee? No. No. No, yeah, we don't need to talk about that. Do we want to get in? Do we have time for crypto corner? We can do crypto in the bonus.

Okay. Oh, I can hear that. Yeah. Kyla, you okay? You can hear it. Oh, maybe it's him that burped. Yeah, it was probably Jack. Yeah.

That's not cool, dude. Zach, can you talk to the group? Why don't we have, if Kyla can stick around for bonus, why don't we have Kyla convince us on crypto being good? With the collapse. I don't know. Also, totally, you don't have to. I know you got work, you got a whole job.

And today's a big day, so, well, in conclusion, this has been Trillionaire Mindset episode 42, 41, 41, 41. Wow, I was at ghost again in the year. You wanna do some plugs for us? What would you like to plug? I'm on Twitter, I'm on Instagram, I'm on YouTube, my username is Kyla Scan. On YouTube?

On Twitter, I don't know why I'm struggling with this Twitter Instagram, Kyla Scan. Then I have TikTok as well, yeah, I Kyla Scan. Is that Kyla Scan? Yeah, and then YouTube, and then Kyla.subsec.com is where I do my writing. Wow, you got Kyla. Yeah. You're probably the most famous Kyla. No, there's actually a Kyla who was in that movie

where the dogs came to life. No one knows that. Where the dogs came to life. Yeah, like she was a vet. Dr. Dulittle? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Kyla Pratt. Kyla Pratt.

Oh, okay. Well, you got your work in there. What about Kyla Minogue? Kyly Minrat. Kyle Leprat. Okay, well, you got your work for. What about Kyle Minogue? Kyle Lee Minogue. Fuck. But yeah, KyleLedSuppt.com, I'm on YouTube. Yeah, you can search KyleLep Finance, isn't it? Do you think Kyle Leprat is like so pissed,

she's like, I wanted that fucking sub-stack? Probably. Maybe. Probably, you better keep an eye out over your shoulder. Oh, honestly. Do you think I'm the most famous amoeil? Amoeil Saran Who's that is my favorite philosopher? Oh, yeah guys dead Man, I made you didn't philosophy. I don't even know who that is really yeah again. I'm dumb

He's good. I like him. Yeah, he totally is. What was one of his most famous, uh, the trouble with being born? Oh, is he? So he is a pessimist, um, but like also another famous and meal trait. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I am sure. And, um, yeah. So he writes a lot about like how life is kind of silly, but it's like funny that so silly

So he is like Camille like those kinds of guys. Yeah, we love Camille. He wrote a book multiple books multiple books Maybe the stranger the stranger I think it's pronounced stranger. Maybe if you say it French How did I goop on my? Is that a fan? Yeah, yeah? Are you being commissive? Fan? Yeah, yeah. So you're a pessimist?

Yeah. Damn. Yeah, yeah. But you're also against the permabairs. That's an interesting juxtaposition. Yeah, yeah. I tried to remain objective in my analysis. Uh, don't we all?

Yeah. I'm constantly remaining objective in my She's like cissophists you have to be happy rolling He also get his liver picked out Who's the one who gets his liver eaten? really oh, that's uh Come on, dude, you're Greek Who's the who's the one who gets his liver eaten out every day? I'm trying to remember.

I don't we Google Greek liver eater or something? Prometheus. Prometheus. Oh, that's by Zeus. That's a good sub-stack. Prometheus research. Oh, that's a good sub-stack. Yeah.

Don't plug them. We'll bleak that out. The only good sub-stack there is is Kyla. Dot sub-stack and don't get it twisted. It's not Kyla Pratt talking about her movies. This is finance. This is pessimism, philosophy. Well, it is. I write about the intersection of people, the economy and philosophy. That rock. Yeah, so I talk a lot about, there it is. Yeah.

Hell yeah. That's a meme. That's a meme I made. But the industrial piece. So the dinosaurs are watching the comment and it's like, but the industrial production metrics. And then I draw drawings. Oh, that's great. Yeah, the vibe session piece is right there

and people made a lot of fun of that picture, which was super fun to experience. I'm sorry, I experienced that. I'm so used to it, yeah. So here's what we're gonna do. We're gonna ask everybody to leave a comment about what you enjoyed about this episode. I hope the only positive comments,

which is what we used to ask anyway for ourselves. Yeah. We're so new to the only good comment. I stopped looking at them, because, yeah, I couldn't handle it. They're so crazy. They're mean. Yeah, people have crazy things.

How do you feel like it's too? Yeah. Yeah, sometimes you gotta like, like sometimes I post that on Instagram. I'm like, I have feelings. Like, yeah. Yeah, I posted like a, literally, I forget that I have like followers now

because I didn't have any before the started and I just like posted pictures of me and my friend going to Greece and like, people were just like roasting what I was wearing and stuff and I was like posted pictures of me and my friend going to Greece and like, people were just like roasting what I was wearing and stuff and I was like, yo, I don't, I'm just having a good time. Maybe there's some truth to those roasts, dude. Yeah, but what is it? Let me just be bad at dressing and have a good time.

Bad at dressing. What if you have your bucket hat and your little tape? Yeah. That's a good look. I'm fucking trying to beat the sun, you know? Yeah. You got to. Or else it'll beat you.

That's right. Yeah. It reminds me, I'm getting my mole check next week. Why that's funny? It's just an overshare. Oh. Yeah, there's a lot of that on the show. Let's tell you.

Well, I hope you had a good time. Yeah, yeah. We certainly did. And I hope you won't be too embarrassed to have this exist. Yeah. Out on the internet. You haven't what? I like it.

I don't know if I cosplay as like Jerome Powell, essentially, in my videos. So like, it's tough to get embarrassed anymore. Oh, right, right, right. I know what that's like to not get embarrassed. I've had naked videos of me on the internet at this point. But he also sends them. That's how they get there. Well, two friends. Two friends. My brothers. Just, but then you get very like put off when you get one when I get a nude video from yeah, like I've sent you one of What Did he say it or did I I don't know I think it was Zach

So that that concludes this episode I don't know. I think it was Zach. So that concludes this episode. Killy parents quit your job, shit your pants. That's our slogan. That's Ben's slogan. Your reaction was so great. That's so violent. Yeah, well, it has to do with...

There's context. Oh, I see. Because someone accused me of killing a parent and I did quit my job and I did shit. It's really been slogan. Yeah, yeah, it's my thing. So anyway, thank you again for coming on. Next time you're in Los Angeles, we would love to have you back. And it's going to be exciting to see your financial career continue to blossom. You're doing amazing things, it's really cool. Congratulations. Thank you.

Appreciate it. So that's it, right? Yeah, Ben, we got to get you to the doctor. Okay. Whatever you say. For my mold check, right? Sure, Ben. All right. I think there's one inside your brain. Whatever you say For my mole check right? Sure, buddy.

I think there's one inside your brain A brain mole? Alright, that's it, everybody This week on After Hours Lesson right? Cancel She's not a joker I'm not a joker

Sometimes after hours feels like I'm on a bad date with Ben. Oh, bad dates are tough. Sign up on TMGStudios.tv to watch the full bonus episode.