The Trillionaire Mindset - 57: What the $%#! is the Fed's Role? (w/ Kyla Scanlon)

Episode Date: October 28, 2022

Become an exclusive member at https://tmgstudios.tv She’s back! While Ben is away Kyla Scanlon joins as co-host. We’re talking all things Fed, China, Crypto, and more. Plus, a little deep dive into Emil’s latest Twitter scare. Head to https://tmgstudios.tv to see who Emil brings to co-host After Hours… This podcast is sponsored by BetterHelp. Visit https://betterhelp.com/trill today to get 10% off your first month Get rid of useless subscriptions with Rocket Money. Go to https://rocketmoney.com/trill Go to https://hellofresh.com/trill65 and use code trill65 for 65% off plus free shipping! If you listen on Apple Podcasts, go to: https://apple.co/trillionaire SUBSCRIBE to Trillionaire Mindset at https://www.youtube.com/trillionairemindset   Trillionaire Highlights Channel: https://www.youtube.com/TrillionaireMindsetHighlights Trillionaire IG: https://www.instagram.com/trillionairepod Trillionaire Twitter: https://twitter.com/trillionairepod TMG Studios YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/tinymeatgang KYLA https://www.instagram.com/kylascan/ https://twitter.com/kylascan EMIL https://www.instagram.com/emilderosa/ https://twitter.com/emilderosa   *DISCLOSURE: THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED IN THIS VIDEO ARE SOLELY THOSE OF THE PARTICIPANTS INVOLVED. THESE OPINIONS DO NOT REFLECT THE OPINIONS OF ANYONE ELSE. THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. THE VIEWER OF THE VIDEO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CONSIDERING ANY INFORMATION CAREFULLY AND MAKING THEIR OWN DECISIONS TO BUY OR SELL OR HOLD ANY INVESTMENT. SOME OF THE CONTENT OF THIS VIDEO IS CONSIDERED TO BE SATIRE AND MAY NOT BE CONSIDERED FACTUAL AND SHOULD BE TAKEN IN SUCH LIGHT. THE COMMENTS MADE IN THIS VIDEO ARE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY AND ARE NOT MEANT TO BE TAKEN LITERALLY.*

Was bringt früh aufsteher? Lange schläfer. Morgen Mensch! Und echte Träumeland in der Früh näher zusammen. Der flaumige Elz Butterzopf. Meisterhaft von Hand geflochten, mit saerte Alpenbutters Österreich. So ist jeder Morgen mit Liebe gemacht. Mit Freiland Ei ist noch mehr Liebe dabei.

Darum verwenden die Elz Meisterbecker Eier aus Freilandaltung. Jeder schmeckt, dass Eltsmitliebebeckt. TV sets. This is, this is not Ben Con in a meal to residents. This is a meal to resident Kyla Scanlan. Ben is down under in Australia. And we have, we're very lucky to have a new host, a new co-host Kyla Scanlan. You guys know her from everywhere. TikTok, social media, Instagram. You've seen her on YouTube, Twitter. She just interviewed Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President and CEO. She just did a presentation at MIT graduate school business,

Sloan, not the undergrad kids, the graduate school. Right. That's big. Got to separate it out. And she's here with us today to talk about the House of the Dragons finale. Is that right? Right. What is that, Game of Thrones?

Oh, this is bad. All my questions are house. Oh, no, I'm sorry. Shit. Okay, let me see if I've got anything. I prefer to comment. What did you think when that guy got chomped? Okay.

No, we're obviously, we're not going to talk about House of Dragons. We're going to talk about the economy. We're going to do a big freaking bird's eye view of the economy. We're gonna do a big freaking bird's-eye view of the economy. Yeah. I love the economy. Do you love the economy? Yeah. Oh, before we get started, I have to say it. So every time we've had a every time we've had a guest, I would say it's been not great. People say, oh no. fuck you guys don't have this person on again, but When we had you on everyone was like this is the best episode and we still get comments that are like Bring Kyla back. Oh gosh well, and when I knew we were having you back on I was like just wait Even once we booked you we still had people going. I want Kyla. That's exciting. Yeah, I'm glad

So am I cuz I mean we've got to have at least one guest, people like... Oh. I like all your guys, I think all of them are great. No, they were all great. Yeah, yeah. Uh, yeah. But universal praise for your episode. Thanks everybody.

We're going to add some applause in that. It's too much. Alex would do it. Everybody we're gonna add some applause in that out for good Welcome back to the beat man when I get done with you Fill me up, you know. Bitcoin solves this. Bitcoin $100,000. Yeah.

We do have to give the disclaimer again. You got to check it in the description box. to give the disclaimer again, you gotta check it in the description box. Yeah, we should just jump right in because Kyla has so much stuff to talk to us about. We're gonna go around the world a little bit, talk about what's going on. Then we're gonna zoom back in,

talk about what's going on here, in Los Angeles. So let's start in. Oh no. It doesn't matter. I'm sorry. Oh wait, before we, I can fix that. So let's start in oh no it doesn't matter Oh wait before we I can fix that Before we even do that I also want to say we haven't covered this yet because I honestly didn't think it would end up Happening and I'm sure you guys have heard but the fillies are in the world series and that's a big deal for us because If you haven't heard

Every time the fillies win the world series there is a And that's a big deal for us because if you haven't heard every time the Phillies win the World Series, there is an economic downturn. So before they were the Phillies, they were the athletics in Philadelphia. They won in 1929 and 1930, not great years for the World Economy. They won in 1980 and then in 2008. So this episode comes out on a Friday.

I think game one is tonight. I'm not a big sports guy, but if you want everything to be okay, root against. Root against the Phillies. Yeah, correlation is causation for sure. Yeah, yeah. In my mind, our entire world economy is hanging on this. On the Philly's.

On baseball. I think, think of myself as not a superstitious person, but when I saw these stories, I was like, it is a little scary. I was like, let's turn our baseball hats inside out. Yeah. Rally caps. Yeah.

There's also the Avatar movie was released in 2008. Oh shit. And they're releasing it, right? James Cameron. Yeah. Also responsible for recessions. So guys, don't yell at politicians. Don't yell at presidents. Yeah. Find James Cameron's house in the Phillies and go to the Phillies houses houses. Yeah. and go to the Philly's houses. Houses. Yeah. And let them know. Let them know.

Protect the economy. What a mess. Okay, should we talk about the UK first? Sure. And what's going on? Yeah, yeah. They just picked their new PM. PM.

And they chose the head of lettuce. It seems like that for a while. Yeah, no, it's interesting. I mean, it seems like things have calmed down quite a bit, but for a while, it was just like, what is going on? Right. Yeah. They picked Rishi Sunak to succeed Liz Trust. Liz Trust, yeah. Do we? Because I thought Liz was going to be the girl. I thought in Liz we trust. Yeah. But not so much. Yeah. Do you think Rishi Suneck can write the ship? No.

We'll see. I mean, it'll depend. They're re-releasing the fiscal package on October 31st. So it'll depend, yeah, right? But it'll depend on that, yeah, and that what that says. Right. And, you know, there is some reason to have some confidence in Rishi, right? Because he was against Liz's proposals, right?

Yeah. I believe he was calling them fantasy land or fairy tale. Fairy tale, you know. I think yeah, fantasy land, yeah. So there's some reason to have some confidence in him. I think other people are a bit disappointed. I don't know if you saw people were comparing his wealth to the King's wealth.

Oh. So Rishi Sunak is richer than the King of England. Are you serious? Yeah. Oh no. Between his wife is very wealthy from her father's company. And they were in some hot water because of... Didn't she evade taxes?

Yeah, cool. But then she got caught and she was like, all right, all right, I'll pay the tax. My dad. Yeah, even though her, you know, husband was responsible for setting some of the, you know, tax policy and everything. Also, we got a shout out, he's a Stanford business school guy, kind of a rival show. They don't know it, but they're all right. Oh, really. Yeah, for a very specific way joke that but they're all right. Oh, really? Yeah. For a very specific weird joke that we did with our fans. Oh, really?

But Stanford Business School doesn't know we exist, I'm sure. I'm sure they know. They're aware. Why wouldn't they be aware? I don't know. I hope they're aware. You just have to think positive. Right, right.

But so another reason we don't mess with Rishi. Yeah. Well, and hopefully, I don't know. It'll depend on what markets decide. Like, if they like Rishi, that's the most important thing. Markets really decided they didn't like Liz. So can you explain what happened a little bit? Yeah, yeah.

So they released their physical package, like Liz trusts and everything. And it was really inflationary. It was tax cuts and a bunch of fiscal spending and markets did not like that. And so the pound created the currency, get yelled sword, and it was just super bad for a while. And then the Bank of England had to step in because their pension funds were about to implode because they had this exposure to liability driven investments.

And so if all of a sudden, you know, get yields are soaring, that means that these LDIs are going to be under a lot of pressure. So the pension funds were under a lot of pressure. So the Bank of England had to step in, fix everything. And the market just were very clear that they were not happy about this inflationary fiscal package that was put forward. Right. I'm confused. What, like, Do you think she was my Margaret Thatcher moment? We're going to, you know, I mean, I think what's really interesting right now about all governments and even the United States, because we have midterms coming up, is the politicking versus actual governance. So there was no sense in the package being passed.

The package itself didn't really make a whole lot of sense. It was much more like politics versus actual governing. So I think it's that sort of stuff where you have governments who are just sort of focused on the next reelection, on the next way to gain more power. And that's like a really broad brush to paint across all governments, but I think that's a big problem. Yeah, but I think that's where it's hard to piece together, right? Because I don't know when their election is,

but it's hard to think like, oh, this is going to win people over. This is going to win people to the conservative party. I know times are tough right now, but we're slashing taxes for the rich. I think they were like releasing limits on bankers bonuses and everything. It's hard to see that as a positive outcome for the conservative party in Britain. Yeah, obviously it didn't work out that well. Yeah.

Right. A lot of people were talking about Liz Truss. She accomplished a lot of things that like the British left could not. She killed the queen. She didn't. Single hand. Single hand. She killed the conservative party.

Yeah. So. I don't know. Lots of changes happening for that sort of stuff. Yeah. And what you're saying there's a lot that, you know, the US could happening for that sort of stuff. Yeah. And what you're saying there's a lot that the US could learn from what is going on in Britain. Yeah.

I mean, I think that there's going to have to be a specifically on the monetary policy side. How the markets responded is important to pay attention to. And I don't like a lot of people will be like, oh, if you're saying that markets basically dictated what happened to this trust, you're saying that markets basically dictated what happened to Liz Truss, you're saying that democracy can't exist under capitalism, which is like, I don't know if that's true or not. I think it has to exist.

It's just a few things. No, she's just a few things. I'm not saying, well, it's just interesting. So you have physical policy makers, so people like Liz Truss, people like Joe Biden, like the US government, the UK government, and then you also have monetary policy decision makers. So here in the United States, the Federal Reserve, over there, the like Joe Biden, like the US government, the UK government, and then you also have monetary policy decision makers. So here in the United States, the Federal Reserve, over there, the Bank of England, and then

you also have like markets now. And you've always had markets. Like they've always been the final judge of policy. But for the United States specifically, like how markets responded to this fiscal package that was put forward, the United States is gonna have to pay attention to that. And I don't, like, there's different measures in place that we won't have that same sort of fallout. Like, we don't have pension funds

that are overly exposed to that sort of leverage that was in the liability driven investments, but it's still like something that is important to watch is like market fundamentalism and how to place out, yeah. I don't think we really have pension funds here. Yeah, nobody retired. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's just a word of going to leave on here.

Our retirement plan is to work and treat dad. Yeah, yeah, that's mine. That's mine too. Wait, real quick before we move on, can you explain a little bit that, the difference between monetary policy and fiscal policy, because I think we're going to talk about that a lot and I want people to. Yeah, yeah. So monetary policy is basically the central banks deciding what to do. And here in the United States, the central banks have a political mandate where they are responsible for maximum employment and price stability.

So Congress gives them that mandate and they're like, here you go, like you take care of that, you take care of the monetary policy side of things. And then the physical policy side of things is the US government, so what the government decides to do, what politicians decide to do, it's that side. So it's two different sides. So like here in the United States, the central bank is an independent body, but it still has like a mandate from Congress. Yeah, the fact. Okay. So we move on to China a little bit. Didn't you want to talk about? Yeah, sure. Okay, should we move on to China a little bit? Didn't you want to talk about? Yeah, sure Well China just picked China just had their No That's a bad way to say it

Xi Jinping cemented his power. Yes Again markets did not like it. Yeah, I know. But I think they might have less say in China. Yeah, well, the US markets and, oh, it was interesting though, because JPMorgan was like, now it's a great buying opportunity to get into China stocks and it's like, oh,

but yeah, I mean, now if you have a exposure to China, you have a exposure to Xi. So it's kind of, it's a tough spot. There was a really good video from this former, I think he was a Singapore Prime Minister, I messed that up, a Singapore Cabinet member. And he was sort of talking about like what China's plan is. And for them, like they can kind of move slowly,

they don't have to respond to political pressures in the same way that the United States does. And so there's a lot of pressures on their economy right now, and that's why they release their metrics so late. And that's also what investors didn't like was how concerning it is that a lot of these numbers are increasingly being papered over. Right. And what are some of those things that's affecting

the Chinese economy so heavily? Well, the property sector. So over there, real estate is huge. Like, people get a lot of exposure to real estate. It's one of the main ways to build wealth. And that's been cratering. And also, there's a lot of insulation from outside investment.

So like, nobody really knows what goes on, because they all do internal auditing. So there isn't a lot of knowledge about what's actually happening behind the scenes. So like that aspect of it makes it less attractive to outside investment and then also internally their property sectors and doing very well. And then also the lockdowns, they've been under lockdown for a long time. A lot of people might not be aware, but they're still doing, I think they still have the zero COVID policies in place. Yeah, and they're easing back on that for sure.

They are. I think so. It's not coming up as much. But I mean, they're still like, if that was happening here in the United States would be. Yeah, I think, I mean, I think people are very unhappy there about it. It sounds like, you know, there's a... Where is that? Where?

Yeah. Come on, make it up. VG. VG? Yeah, that's in Fiji. Oh, nice. I don't remember. We were talking about China.

Oh, zero COVID policy. Yeah, and that's really bad for your economy. Really bad for demand and consumer spending is a huge portion of how Economy's grow so it's just not not great. Yeah, not great. No Yeah, also I'm pretty sure they have like a lower vaccination rate But there are plans to get that rate up and if they start getting more people vaccinated they can open up more effectively Yeah Also, are you do you know anything about that is it called the Chips and Science Act?

No. Oh, really? Yeah, tell me. With the Congress passed the Chips and Science Act, they want the U.S. to become more competitive with, well, producing chips here, and not only moreical, you know, even if there's more outbreaks of COVID, things that slow down micro-trip production. So yeah, more domestic production of all of those things, ideally. And also isolating China from American made chips.

Anywhere in the process of making the chips of American industry touch them. China cannot. China cannot, which is gonna be hard for China to be isolated from that production. Can America do that easily though? We're kind of seeing it being implemented now. I was actually pretty surprised at how quickly it happened.

I think Joe Biden issued an Orl the Biden administration issued an order because they don't even want Americans working for Chinese companies anymore. So I think Americans who were working in chip production at Chinese companies that I think they told them either quit or renounce your citizenship. It's your option, which I was surprised about. So that is also going to be hard for the Chinese economy.

And also probably not ideal for the United States. Just because the two countries have so much exposure to each other. Right. So yeah, I guess if that makes it, that's tough. And like also, it does seem like, the United States has talked about this before, like Janet Yellen has been really focused who's had a treasure.

Yeah, treasure secretary. She's talked a lot about friend shoring and how we have to like, Talked about what? Friend shoring. Friend shoring? Yeah. So I mean, it's essentially what you're saying to a certain extent, like getting production

away from China, from other nations that maybe we don't agree with to a certain extent, or the United States doesn't agree with that to a certain extent on views. So that's the goal. And there's, that's good to a certain extent and it's bad to a certain extent. We've gotten really used to globalization. We've gotten really used to two-day shipping and that's not going to go away. But I think these efficiencies that we've expected in modern life are going to be pressured by these signs of decalabization that we seem to be experiencing.

Right. They might go away though. What would go with it? Like, you know, two days shipping and some things. It's pretty wild. Like some of these convenience as we've been accustomed to. Yeah. There was an article in The Atlantic by Derek Thompson

that was interviewing a post-so worker who, you know, sorts up throughout all the packages from Amazon. And he's like, I have to get in at one o'clock in the morning, sort through these packages. It's like insane physical labor. And it's just so you all can have packages on Sunday and have packages on holidays. So we've almost gotten used to these efficiencies in a way that probably isn't net good for society.

Yeah, oh, I mean, that's another obvious thing. Derek, too, an Amazon warehouse. I mean, but that's the, I mean, yeah, that's another obvious thing. Derek too, an Amazon warehouse. I mean, but that's the, you know, we kind of have come to realize, oh, we can't have these conveniences without some human suffering. Yeah. And I guess we have to decide how much suffering is okay to get, you know, well, and that also like, that's an interesting point too, is the labor market. Like, so the labor market is very tight right now to certain extent, so people can demand what

they want from their employers because it's like, well, you have to have a job and you have to have people working. And so I wonder if we'll see more work or power come in just because employers need these people to work. Labor market has been historically tight, and so that could put some pressure on the idea of efficiencies too. Right. Not to jump ahead, but that kind of... Is that it? Well that leads me to something like I want to talk about a little bit with the Fed. And you know, that's kind of... We talked about this a little bit, but I said, we'll save it for the show But I wanted to I wanted to

Text you about like because When I watch everything going on with the Fed and the economy it's it's hard to you know It's hard to figure out what I want to happen But like genuinely what I want to happen is you know for us to get out of this situation with as little suffering for ordinary people as possible. Extraordinary people though. I don't care how much they suffer. Like Mark Zucker. He's lost 70 billion. Yeah, great. So fun. Right? Probably more now. Someone actually just texted me before it started and said, I guess Facebook is now worth less than Home Depot? Oh, nice.

Oh, right. Mehta, you mean me. Mehta. Mehta, sorry. No one out homes the Depot. But among progressives, there are these kind of two different arguments about what the Fed is doing. Because we're experiencing one of the fastest

rate hikes in history. Some people are very upset about that. They're saying that Jerome Powell is intending to cause a recession. He wants people to, he wants people thrown out of work. And then kind of the other side, people are saying, no, this low rate environment is what caused a huge amount of, you know, a, a, ever widening

wealth gap. It made, it made borrowing very easy for the wealthy. It kind of led to the financialization of everything. And what you were talking about with the labor market is, you know, that's, I think I fall more on the side of like him raising rates as quickly as he is. I don't think he's as explicit as maybe someone like Larry Summers who's like, we've got to get it up to, we've got to get the unemployment rate up to over 5% and it's at about what?

It's lower than 3.5%. But when people say things like that, they're talking about millions of people. Millions, yeah. That'd probably be 2 million people losing their jobs. Right. And that's a huge million people losing their jobs. Right. And that's a huge deal. It's a huge deal. And but like, people, you say the numbers and you're like,

well, one and a half percent, what's, you know, what's that? Yeah, it doesn't sound like that. The difference is a couple of million people out of work. And, you know, I tend to think that, you know, a tight labor market can be good. I think if people are demanding things, I'd much rather see us deal with it that way.

But yeah, where do you shake out on this? I know you told me that your thoughts on the fed have changed a little bit since the last time we talked. So I'd love to hear about what that is. Yeah, well, the economy has changed. Right. It's less than we talked. But I think you're totally right that it's really difficult to have that conversation and to see the headlines. And this is something I get asked a lot where it's like, why does the Fed want people to lose their jobs? Like that doesn't even sound like a plausible thing. But the whole thing is like they want people to lose their jobs.

So the economy slows down. So inflation goes down. And then their eyes, people losing their jobs and not demanding as much money from their employers will help inflation go down. Inflation goes down. Then everybody will be happy again. Otherwise, people losing their jobs and not demanding as much money from their employers will help inflation go down. If inflation goes down, then everybody will be happy again. And then everyone can get back up. And I think the issue with that is, it is sort of like a suffer in the short term for

benefits in the long term. But there is in a promise that the longterm will play out that way, right? Right. So I think I agree with you that if we're in an environment where workers can demand more from their employers, that's really good. Like there's a research paper that talks about how a lot of people are underpaid. Obviously, right? They should be demanding more.

They can get more out of their employer. And so I'm not saying, like, I don't know what I'm saying with that, but I do think that what the Fed is doing is tough to swallow because it's all these different lines that are kind of pointing to this one direction of getting flees in down. But also, they're using demand side tools, which a lot of people point it out, using demand side tools to fight supply side inflation. And there's a video from Kedi Porter who's talking about, you know, 50% of inflation is to certain extent corporate profits. Yeah. Which is, yeah.

And obviously, inflation is global. It's an energy crisis. It's a supply chain crisis. It's all these different things. But to say, like, oh, you people just need to stop buying so many things. Right. It feels ridiculous. Yeah.

And like, that's in the issue is like the Fed is doing the best they can with what they have. Right? So they have a really blunt tool to raise rates, to shrink their balance sheet. And that is to make people stop demanding things. And so it shouldn't go this down. But the issue with that is if you don't fix the underlying problem of we don't have enough energy production,

we don't have enough food production, we don't really have the right allocation of labor, right? Like if you just stopped, like what they're doing is putting a bandaid on like a gushing wound. It's gonna keep on bleeding through the bandaid. Which is really gory, but yeah. Yeah. And so that also, that reminds me of,

I watched your talk with Mary Daly. Everyone should go watch it. It's very cool. Were you very excited to talk to a fed president? That's like a rock star for you. Yeah, I know it was, it was, we got on the call and like the initial call

and they were like, oh, we're a big fan of you and I was like, shut up. Like, shut up. And she said she watched one of my videos where I was I had props in the video. And she's like, oh, I saw that one. And he's like, this is so embarrassing. But anyway, yeah. No, she was, I mean, she was very cool. And speaking of, you know, the stuff we were talking about. She's great. Her story's cool too. Yeah. The stuff we were talking about with Rishi, I'm glad you asked her about her story. Because, you know, that's one of the things people are pissed about

Rishi getting in. They're saying, you know, we're living through a crisis and this is going to be the guy going out to have a conversation and say, you know, I know this is going to affect working class people like we're really sorry that you have to suffer too. And it's like, you don't fucking know. But, you know, she talks about how, I think she had to drop out of high school when her, how to get jobs, when her parents lost their jobs in an economic downturn, it must have been the 80s, I'm just guessing from her age.

But you, what's that? So seven, she lived through a high inflationary time too. So I think it was a seven years ago. Oh, right, right, right, okay. But then you had asked her about their relationship with the US government, right? Like, you know, the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy. She, I don't know.

I feel like maybe she misunderstood the question a little bit or something or maybe just didn't want to talk about that because she said, well, we don't have one. We're an independent body. And she talked about how they just have the one tool, which honestly always feels so ridiculous, where we test them with this huge thing. And they're like, you have the one tool. Go ahead, do it. Fix the whole house. Yeah. And like the way that they figured out that that worked back when the Fed was founded like 1913, it was a mistake, like open our open market operations, which what they do to like nudge around rates. It was the, it a mistake. Like, they were like, oh, this kind of moves interest rates around. Like, let's use this.

Really? Yeah. It's like when, it's like when scientists are trying to figure out like a heart medicine and they're like, I don't know, make sure Dick Hard here by Agri. Or the guy who founded acid, it wasn't that bad. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I think Justin and you. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I feel like in that. I think it's him. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I feel like pretty much every medicine, they're like,

we're going to fix this and then they're like, I don't know. It's a dick pill. Look at this. But so with what you're talking about, doesn't it seem like we should have more of a relationship between fiscal and monetary policy? Well, so the reason that they're independent in the first

place is so politicians, which, okay, so there's like two threads here. So reason that they're independent in the first place is so politicians, which, okay, so there's like two-thirds here. So the reason they're independent in the first place is because they don't want politicians to be all short-term and be like, oh, I have to get reelected. Let's snudge the Fed around so everything looks good and people want to reelect me. And the issue with that is, like, you have these elected representatives now coming out. I think it's shared Brown from Ohio, came out the other day, somebody else came out this morning and was like, hey, no, the

fed, you got it chill out. And they're not supposed to be doing that. Like the fed does report to Congress. I think it's semi-annual or maybe semi-annual. Okay. And they tell Congress how things are going. But now you have these elected, yeah, Hickenlooper from Colorado, wrote a letter. Yeah, you're right, John Hickenlooper.

He wrote a letter, Rompal. And he said, I write to urge the photo reserve to pause and seriously consider the negative consequences of, again, raising interest rates. And so shared Brown, Astro and Pal, the slowdown interest rate rises in a letter one week before the FOMC meeting, the FOMC meeting is next week, and two weeks before congressional elections. And so you have this independent body of their pseudo independent, pseudo independent body. I always say suedo and people get really mad,

but fuck. You can't mad about suedo, fuck you. I know, it's so, oh, anyway. But, um, so pseudo independent body of the Federal Reserve that is supposed to be, you know, insulated to a certain extent of the short termism of the fiscal side. But yeah, so it's your point about, like, Mary Daly, maybe not addressing how the interlinkage between fiscal and monetary policy works.

It wasn't throwing shade at your girl. No, no, it's okay. Well, so the Minneapolis Fed President also spoke to this a few weeks ago and he was like, yeah, like if we had more supply side help, which would be fiscal policy, that would be great. And like, fiscal policy could help with this by like helping mandate more housing being built, helping to figure out more regulation around labor allocation and like all of these different things, like supply chain energy production. Like all of that is a policy mandate that the Fed can't do.

Like the Fed can't print oil as do. The Fed can't print oil. As everybody says, they can't print corn. So it's like, I know. But so I think the problem for me is it doesn't have the intended concept, like the intended result they wanted, right? And it seems like the result we have is politicians the result we have is politicians screaming at the Fed and being like, they're not fucking doing it. It's their job to fix it. And then you have the Fed going, like, we're not getting enough help. And it's like, I feel like I'm like, with divorced, just talking to each other.

Yeah. Well, I mean, I really think that like midterms are a big problem. And I don't think it gets talked about enough is like The you're saying abolish midterms don't let people vote. Oh my god I don't even know what I think about the political stone But like I know I think the midterms are a problem. Yeah, well, yeah, I was so I think the the the mindset around Midterms is the problem where people are so distracted

by re-election that they're not as focused on passing policy. Right. I've seen you, I told you I wanted to talk about your, I've seen you tweet at politicians. I try not to do that. Because it's like something that's useless, you know, you're like yelling at a window or something or at the mirror, maybe. True. Yeah.

Sometimes it just feels good though. I know, but then people yell at you. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But you just have to live with it, you know? Yeah. I'm getting yelled at on Twitter right now, but it's okay. About what?

Honestly, because I made fun of TikTok, it's fine. Oh, oh, I'm on TikTok. No, I literally, I, I never go on TikTok and like someone sent me one and it opens the app when you do it and then I clicked out of it and then it was whatever was on the home screen and it was some like old songs, so I clicked the sound and I just was like, this is making me feel crazy

because I just kept flipping through, oh yeah. I just kept flipping clicked the sound and I just was like this is making me feel crazy because I just kept flipping through oh yeah I just kept flipping through the sound obviously no but it makes you feel crazy and I did people make fun of you because it's a bunch of girls no people made they think that I don't know that I clicked a sound they're like oh he's so stupid but it's fine Twitter is such a successful and people are like quote tweeting me and being like, oh yeah, like anyone can click this phone. Oh my god, no. How are you getting dragged?

Local. What does it say? Local man clicks on a trending sound. It's surprising. Well, having fun with the trend. It was a dumb joke. Don't make dumb jokes on Twitter. That's the thing.

Well, also, you know like what people are gonna glom onto, you know what I mean? So like, oh yeah, for sure. And it sucks because it's all right, it's wheat and I'll go, well, I did it. You're the funniest man in the world. Oh, they're being so nice to you. You clicked on a sound of a dumbass. Of course, there's, yeah, I know. I know what I did. I know, I know what I did. I like that you're getting so much pleasure out of everyone. I mean, listen, people say all sorts of things to me. So it's nice to see someone else get you. But it's funny because I tell people like I like purposely don't...

I feel like it's a, you know, yeah, I see you go through it. Like being... Being sincere on Twitter is like just, Oh, God. It's like putting a kick me somewhere. Did you see the girl who tweeted that she goes into the garden with her husband? And, yes. Yeah.

That was wild. And people were screen shouting. So for those of you who don't know, I think she said, like, there's nothing like waking up and going into my garden with my husband and drinking tea. It's the most relaxing thing. Yeah, and we can do it for hours every morning. And the thing is, once a tweet hits anywhere above,

I don't know, a thousand likes, it starts to hit the algorithm, and it starts to hit just the most, you know, just creatures who come out of the... See a word? And they start picking it apart apart and they think you're It's they take it so personally. It's such a sweet tweet. Yeah She's not hanging out with her husband, but then what happened was some guy like people were like actually a lot of people Can't afford gardens and this is like which is like valid I guess but yeah, so it's also like not everything in the world is gonna apply to you

You're not like the main character of the universe right, you know, right Sometimes this is just for my followers who know that I'm an idiot Yeah, and I like to scroll through the same sound make it sound stupid Like imagine like making a whole tweet like being like you're stupid That's another imagine taking the time yeah, but anyway as someone who takes the time to tweet at people That's so true. I basically did tweet at her and you're stupid We got here because you were yelling because I was that I was this no, but I was that was kind of when but so but that Not to joke about it. I was I was genuinely a little bit curious because I think she was saying, you know

I think she being Elizabeth Warren. Yes. I wish I'd tweet but she was she was basically responding to like drone pals Decision to hike rates and you know, she was basically like this is irresponsible. You know that or I think in I think when he went to go speak to Congress She was asking him like yeah, can can the fed This is irresponsible. You know that, or I think when he went to go speak to Congress, he was asking him, like, can the fed, that's crazy stuff, yeah. Can the fed do anything about oil prices? Can the fed do anything about the crisis in Ukraine? Can they do anything about corporate profits?

Can they do, you know what I mean? And he was like, no, of course not. And her point being, those are the real causes of inflation. You can't actually do anything about it. Yeah. And you said... Well, so the tweet was, she tweeted out, Federal Reserve chairpall, just announced another extreme industry, high-equal forecasting, higher unemployment.

I've been warning that chairpall was fed, with throw millions of Americans out of work, and I feared that he's already on the path doing so. And this was in September. So a month ago. Yeah, yeah, this is It's always that's the fun thing about but I said dude. This is an incredibly irresponsible thing to tweet and People underneath were like I disagree with you like why do you not like this? And basically the reason I- For the record, I don't disagree with you. I was, I'm just curious. Yeah. Well, it's okay if you disagree.

No, no, I don't. I was just curious. Yeah. Well, I think the reason I said it in the first place was, it's sort of like this is what they've been mandated to do. And I don't think the original tweet had enough context on like why they're doing what they're doing. So like the way that she is saying it is like, the Fed is doing this major rate hike, everybody. I don't think the original tweet had enough context on like why they're doing what they're doing.

So like the way that she is saying it is like the Fed is doing this major rate hike everybody and they're going to put you out of work. And I've been saying that they shouldn't do that. But it's like that is the toolkit that they have. And I don't mean to be like a Fed apologist about it. But like I do think that if you're an elected representative, you have to provide that additional context to people so they know why all these dominoes are tipping, just saying, hey, everybody needs putting you out of work. Sorry, like, that doesn't help.

Right. She needs to include the real truth is that we actually won't do anything in Congress. Yeah. That they're also responsible. Right. Yeah. I mean, I think that would be great're also responsible. Right, right, right. Yeah, I mean, I think that would be great. I mean, I'm sure you saw, this was a while ago at this point, like the Joe Biden did

like a little Wall Street Journal op-ed. I'm sure he wrote it, but he was basically like, he basically was like, and you know, I'm gonna let the Fed do their thing. They're gonna leave. And he was basically like, I, I remember. I am not doing this. The Fed is doing it.

Well, in my interview with Mary Daly, she said that like half of the inflation comes from the demand side, half comes from the supply side. So she, and so like, they're responsible for half of the fixing, fixing half of the inflation. Good, the government is,

if you go by that mindset, right? So that's also the issue, is that they are responsible for fixing it. But the Fed is technically responsible for fixing it. So it's easy for them to be like, well, the Fed is responsible for price stability. That's why they're there. Honestly, now that you're saying it, I'm kind of like, if I was the Fed, I'd be like, fuck you. I'm tired of you guys y'all not me. We're just going to hit the button. We're going to fucking do it. Okay. People have said that. Well, we'll bring prices down.

Yeah, I do. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Government won't do anything. You guys are screaming at me. Yeah. Oh, it's such a hard job. I can't even Yeah, what do you think about this? We parent trap the US government and the Fed Okay, um We get them in the same room. We make them fall in love and work together. Yeah, I think that would be awesome If you function well, which would be a good change change. It'll be what? Functional. Right? I like that.

Yeah. Can we talk a little bit more about the other side of it though? Like, what do you think about the people who say, you know, there is just like, we've pumped too much money into the economy, into Wall Street. I, you know, there is a part of me that finds that argument a little bit persuasive. You know, when you talk about like a lot of money coming out of like crypto and, you know, I mean, also when we're talking, we talked about this on the show, you know, you see those headlines of, and it's a great headline, nine trillion, the Americans have lost nine trillion dollars over the past whatever right but

Really that's coming I think it was like eight point something trillion was from like the top 10% probably yeah You know average Americans aren't as exposed to the well the top one percent of Americans own 50% of stocks Yeah, or I think that, I think in yours, the top 10% own 50, and then the top 1% own like 89%. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Or did I say it wrong?

Oh no, I don't remember exactly, but that doesn't make sense mathematically. Anyway, but yeah, so bitch. We're not a match. No, it's a MIT fucking. But essentially, right, like, and this is also not to keep on bringing up Mary. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that.

I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that.

I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that.

I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. all that stuff. Right. But what you're saying is like, did the Fed inflate the bubble a little bit too much? Yeah. Yeah. And I think I think part of the argument for people who are talking about it in that way, they were like, we are going to have to pay for this at some point in mind as well. I'll be now. Oh my God. I don't. So I kind of hate that mindset. And I guess it makes sense. Like a lot of people are like, Oh, we need a recession to clean out the gutters of the economy. All this stuff. And it's like, I don't know if we necessarily need that.

I do think that there's been excess. And a little bit of pullback is good for the reallocation of excess. The valuations that were being attached to some of these crypto companies were just unsustainable. But that's also the fault of maybe not the Federal Reserve, but also VCP firms, hedge funds, who are allocating this capital. So I think it's sort of like, if you want to place the blame, you have to do it in a tiered way, do one of those tier charts and point to where the blame can go.

But I do think you're right, there has been excess in the economy. And a pullback is good for sort of clearing the brush out a little bit, but I don't think that we have to have a full blown recession. Right. And I think they're, I don't think they're doing it in a calis way when they say, like, oh, we just need a recession, like clear things out, reset. I think sometimes it's a thing of, you know, be realistic.

I mean, you know, the stuff we're talking about where, you know, getting them to use fiscal policy in an effective way is, you know, it feels like fantasy. I mean, it feels like, I think we'd all love it if we had a efficient governing body in the country that could have efficiently manage markets and stuff like that, but I don't think we have that. And so sometimes you're like, yeah, fuck it, push the button.

Yeah. Well, and I think also the younger generation, so people under 35, even they just been. Thank you, thank you for that. That's gonna go a long way for me. I'm 33. Oh, you? And you said young people under 35. And then it's 35.

Yeah, because you and Ben were talking about that on the show and somebody was like, why has Ben older than my dad? Hahaha. Hahaha. Because he's older, right? Oh, he's like 40. I think he's 35. Okay, so people, I mean, everybody, right? But young people under 35.

Yeah, and, um, oh man, the cheering totally left the station. Sorry, sorry, sorry. So yeah, under 35, a lot of frustration because like, like for me, I was born like right when the tech crisis was happening. So like, you're born into a crisis and then the 2000, like the financial crisis happens, the endemic happens, there's a land war in Europe.

And so I think for a lot of people, it's like, wow, like things are just, like the system is always trending towards disorder and there's just no escape. So like, why wouldn't we have a recession, right? Oh, yeah. I mean, it's just, it's just been a constant. Yeah. Every time we begin to recover, they're, yeah, we fucked it up again. And there's a lot of financial nihilism too. Oh, yeah. Yeah. And like the New York Times had a good article about that where it's just like, why would I say for the future? There's a climate crisis. There's all this stuff that is concerning. So I think, yeah, to your point, if something good happened, and there's a lot

of good things happening, but if something good happened, I think a lot of people would be like, it's just going to get bad again. Speaking of that arc, I mean, just from like real life, speaking of that arc, I mean, just from like real life. Because I, you know, I'm 33 and a lot of people my age are, you know, getting married and started to like decide about kids and stuff. And I went to New York, I think it was last August, right? When that IPCC report came out about like,

they were like, we fucked it. It's done. We're not gonna, we're not gonna make it. And, you know, I was meeting up with people I didn't see in a long time and talking to them. Everyone was just so, like, despondent. And they were, you know, a couple of my friends were like, what have I been saving money for?

I was like, I'm just gonna start spending it. I don't fucking care. Like, none of it's gonna be here. And my one friend said, he's been micro-dosing retirement and he really has been traveling without just spending all his money. Yeah, I think a lot of people are in that boat, especially after being you know locked inside for a couple of years with the pandemic and stuff. I think there's a lot of excess demand for that sort of lifestyle. Yeah. Yeah. a lot of exes demand for that sort of lifestyle. Yeah.

Before we move on to anything else, we jumped so far ahead because we started talking about it. No, no, no, no, no, I was my fault. I... No, I brought up the labor market. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,

no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, So, but I did want you to talk about the, let's go back to the kind of world economy, a little bit and talk about the dollar wrecking ball. And maybe you can explain that a little bit. Cause I think it's important to understand that this is not as much as, you know,

Joe Biden with the ice cream talking about, he's worried about the American economy. It's affecting the whole world. Yeah. And I think we also, we have a little bit of, oh yeah, great. If you go to $40, slide 40, Kyla's going to tell us a little bit about dollar ominous. Yes, yeah. So when the federation is raised, there's all sorts of consequences. And basically, one of the consequences, is not necessarily a bad thing until it gets really bad,

is the US dollar, everybody wants it. Because the United States is like, somebody said that the United States is the cleanest shirt and a dirty laundry basket right now. Oh, right. So you're picking mouth, smellin' them, and you're like, yeah. But the United States smells okay, right?

Like Japan. Japan's a super dirty shirt right now. You're like, that needs a wash. Also, this is, as I started to do the jokes, I'm like, this is a really hard joke to do, because I don't want to like, list the country and go, stinky, you know? Yeah. I was like, tough.

Sorry, I didn't help you without you. No, it was my fault. Yeah. No. Yeah, we should honestly cut that. I didn't see something. I don't even remember. That's the problem with all the...

The analogy is you're talking about it. Oh yeah, and I'm a big fan of them. If you read, does somebody actually email me once and they're like, you gotta stop with these metaphors. Well, it'll help if we go Japan economy. It's thinking, not like people. Am I making it worse? Dollar revenues. So when the Fed research raised like Chris to save even status of the dollar

because everyone is like, wow, you know, I want to have dollar-denominated assets. So there's outsized demand for the dollar which creates the dollar go up sort of thesis. But when that happens, that puts a lot of pressure on emerging market nations because they have dollar-denominated debt, and so all of a sudden that becomes more expensive to finance, and then also energy imports become more expensive for those nations. And then it also puts a lot of pressure on corporations, domestic corporations here in the United States that do business abroad. And so the dollar, corporations here in the United States that do business abroad. And so the dollar, if it becomes strong enough, it just creates all these other pressure points in the global economy, which it has been doing.

Right. And that worsens everything for everybody. Yeah. Can we put the next slide up and this might help. This is a very fun. Oh my, my comic. Is it okay if we show it? Yeah. Okay. Yeah, it's in my business. And look, if you're an audio listener, you'll be able to follow along very fun. Oh my comic. Is it okay if we show it? Yeah, it's in my music video.

And look, if you're an audio listener, you'll be able to follow along very easily. But Kyla has made it very easy for us to see the impact of the stronger dollar. So she's got a picture of Jerome Powell here from the Fed Reserve raising rates to fight inflation. And then we have the world saying, wow, the dollars looking pretty strong

and hot right now, I might invest. And then, oh man, can we zoom in a little bit? Oh, you can't read that? Okay, enough of the, this is becoming a fucking Aegis show. I wear contacts and, you know, there we go. Look at that, now that, I can read the world. Wow, the dollar is increasing the cost

of our energy imports and dollar-genominative debt. This is bad. US corporations, our export costs are skyrocketing. We got Janet Yellen here from the Treasury. We see the dollar ripping right now, but we cannot intervene because the Fed is going to continue hiking, therefore our efforts moot. And then the Fed also a stronger dollar helps

fight inflation because reduced import costs for us. And then the US dollar, I only grow in strength. Great. Yeah. And so this could have a huge impact on the world in kind of, I mean, you're really seeing it in emerging markets right now already, right? Yeah.

I think Sri Lanka is probably the worst case. Everything's getting way more expensive for them servicing their debt Energy is a big one, but even a country like Japan is having a lot of trouble. Yeah, the Yenna is lost 50% against the dollar this year Which is bad for the Japanese But I'm going you're going. Yeah. So good for you. So I hope it turns around in two weeks. Once I leave. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. It's really. And it's part of it because they're the Bank of Japan. Is that what they're? Yeah. Okay. The Bank of Japan is not hiking rates.

Is that what they're doing? Yeah. So they're essentially in their bond market, buying up all the bonds in order to do yield credit control on their 10-year. And so why is that? Like, because wouldn't it ease some of these problems a little bit if they were to raise rates as well? It would just create a whole bunch of different issues.

And they've been using for so long that I don't even think they would know how to tighten. So they've just always kept this plan. And like what's interesting is because they've they're in the bond market like buying up bonds. Now there's no longer demand for their bonds besides coming from the bank in Japan because the bank in Japan is going to be top buyer. So even if they did step back and we're actually experiencing this a little bit here in the United States with the treasury market because the Fed is stepping back from buying up mortgage-backed securities and other bonds.

And that's creating sort of this whole of structural demand in the Treasury market, liquidity issues around that. So going back to the Bank of Japan, if they all send a step back from their bond market, like it'd be like, who's gonna buy this stuff? Right, yeah. And everyone's gone, I want the sweet, sweet US bonds.

Don't. Well, it's a certain extent, yeah. But like, so the Fed is just a huge buyer of bonds. And then, um, commercial banks are like, well, I don't know, man, like we're kind of nervous right now. We're not going to be buying up as much stuff. And then foreign investment is drying up because the dollar is so strong. And so there is sort of an issue around structural demand for US treasuries too.

I love picturing that I really hope like these execs and politicians are talking the way you say, I don't know, man, these are. Yeah. I think they are. Should we jump into crypto a little bit because we're running a time, but I really want.

Oh me? No, we'll make it. but I just want to number one didn't even talk about the housing market oh shit which would you rather talk about I know you choose it's your show oh man don't make the shoes between my two favorite things the housing market and crypto maybe we can do both sure. Well, we don't have to. Yeah. Let's jump into housing a little bit. Tell me what's going on.

I just think it's interesting. It is interesting. Yeah, and important. Yeah, yeah. Okay, so let's do the housing market. Yeah, yeah. Tell me what's going on in the housing market. Well, so house prices are sort of going down.

Rents are going down a little bit. But that's also another interesting thing. It's like, so the feds have been raising rates rate in order to about on-inflation, and where most of the impact is showing up is in the housing market. Because mortgage rates went from like 3.5% all the way up to 7%. So if you wanted to get a house, you're just basically straight out of luck right now.

Because that means you are seeing housing prices come down, but that doesn't mean it's necessarily more affordable. Right, yeah. It's rate of change not level. Because with these new interest rates, you're gonna be paying a lot per month for less hours. Yeah, yeah, exactly. So affordability has just completely cratered. And so an inflation is slowing on houses, but there's still more, there's still more expensive than they were a year ago,

right? There's still more expensive. Yes, yeah, yeah. Everything is still more expensive. There's just a lot of supply constraints. And people don don't want to because there's uncertainty around the economy People don't want to move and they don't want to like 32 million so there's like houses and rents and I'm kind of like mixing up They do a little bit for like 32 million people have no mortgage, right? So they're not gonna move and so that's a total Like that means they've paid off their home. Yeah, they don't have a mortgage payment. They just own Just own the home and ask if they're gonna keep appreciating. Yeah. No, I really can't imagine. I know. Yeah, but they they own

it outright. They pay no money to live there. It's a property taxes maybe. Well, yeah, but yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, that's true. But fuck them. Not in California. California is read about probably anyway. Yeah. But um, so there's those people, they're not going to sell their homes. They're not going to move like why, they're not gonna sell their homes, they're not gonna move, like why would they? And then like, I think it's a third of the housing market is owned by boomers, and they're probably not gonna move there because like, you know, they're pretty much

stopped in for a little bit. And so there's just not a lot of supply coming to market, and there's also not a lot of supply being built. Because home builders are like, whoa, you know, things are pretty wacky out here. We're not gonna build up new homes, like, who's gonna move in? And so like, whoa, you know, things are pretty wacky out here. We're not going to build up new homes like who's going to move in? And so like, that's also an issue too. And is it also, is it more expensive for them to build right now too?

Okay. So it's more expensive for them to build and they're worried that people will not buy them with their belt. Yeah. And so, yeah, there's a lot of worries about like the actual materials that are being used to build these homes now too. Yeah. Okay.

Yeah. So the raising rates... I just did all tie together. Yeah. I mean, the intended effect was for it to help. And that's something Mary Daly was talking about. And that's when I'm like, I don't know if this is the most convincing argument, especially with everything you're talking about. You know, maybe prices are coming down a little bit,

but affordability is not. Right. Builders don't want to build because it's expensive and they're worried they won't move in. So I mean, what is the end goal with where are we going to shake out? Am I ever going to be able to own a home? Home prices are going down, and it will depend on how supply hits the market.

Like, I think the biggest thing is people feeling a little bit more confident again, because that's a huge part of what drives you over all economy and- Never feel confident. Well, I don't know what's up there. It's neither do I. But I don't think it has anything to do with the Fed.

But I don't know, maybe it's a certain extent. Yeah. Let's put it on there. The Fed is why I feel bad. Yeah. I don't know. It'll be interesting. It'll kind of depend on when the fed decides to pivot.

So that's actually a really important point that I can't point it and talk about. I can't believe we haven't talked about it either. But it's actually really important because the fed is probably the meeting is next week. They're definitely going to raise raise by 75 basis points. Nick from the last year's journal said it. But the question is, they're definitely going to raise raise raise by 75 basis points Nick from the last year journal said it, but the question is they're probably going to slow down into December and only do 50 basis points.

And so we're starting to see the Fed decide, you know, turning pivoting a little bit, not pivoting is not very word, but slowing down there. Yeah, but I mean, it feels crazy to even call that a slow down. Yeah, I mean after like. I know. Yeah. Also, if you have that slide, there's a really good, if you can find it, there's a, it shows how quickly we've raised rates. It's towards the beginning.

Oh, yeah. And it's, it's really, if you go up top, you'll, we'll be able to slide down to it. It's a really great chart because it, it really puts into perspective how quickly they've been raising these rates. And no. No. That's another important part though. All these shares are important. Right. So above your own pulse head. Ah, here we go. Here we go.

They're really raising rates. And so this is the fastest rate hiking cycle since the early 1980s. And if you see, you can see that in different years, we've had more of these kind of slow gradual hikes. And for ours, we're just going basically straight up. Yeah, vertical. And so when they talk about like, oh, we're actually slowing down, we're pivoting. You're like, that's insane. Well, they're going from like a hundred and a few miles per hour on the freeway to like 90. Right. Yeah. Yeah.

But I mean, you'll still be cheering them on at the FOMC. You'll have your Mary daily Jersey on. Yeah. Well, so like I get called a fed simp, a lot. And I think to a certain extent, like things have to happen that the way that they're happening because that's how they happen, but there's also, it's just like there, there's room to be frustrated about the impact that this is having. And frustration about the narrow tube that the Fed is forcing themselves down to try and

like impact the economy, you know, nudging things around when there's more direct ways to fix the issues that we have. So I think that is the issue with this graph is that they are going fast and furious mode, but it's also like if you're driving the car with no direction unless, you know, the only way to end it is to crash. They're like, fuck it, I'll get in and press the gas. Yeah. How many analogies have we done? Like I said, I'm a big fan of analogies. Yeah, you did a great one when a great TikTok, when they were doing the hiking, and you were like,

you were telling it to be a hiker, very fun. Yeah, yeah. There's been a lot of memes about, my favorite one was that, you know, the shaking hands meme, it's like two things and then the one thing down below. Were the really strong arms? No.

Shit. I'm 33, so I explain the memes I see. I'm just like your grandma. Yeah. I saw one, it's two hands shaking. No, but it's like, it was like the Fed. Guys on dating apps and then two hands shaking and then And then on the bottom I think my friend Joey made that holy shit Joey behind the

Guys on tender Joey shout out Joey But yeah, no, it's true. Iicking is a big part of their life right now for both the group. Should we do a little bit of crypto? Yeah, okay, crypto. Okay. Play the crypto thing.

Oh. Oh. We won't see it. It's in post. Oh. But it's sick when it gets. Shyan made this cool artwork. Oh, I see. Oh,

there. Yeah. And we haven't we haven't played that's why when you said you had stuff to talk about. I was like, Oh, it's great. We haven't done it in so long. Yeah. And so I wanted you to give me a little update because all I see is like, Doe Kwan is on the run. Yeah, I was just fucking like, you know, he's saying, yeah, he's sorry. Yeah, it's not going well. He's really sorry. Maybe he'll say sorry. Yeah. But you want to talk about Sam Bankman Freed. Yeah.

So tell me what's going on. And some regulations. Yeah. Well, so regulation is like the key right now for crypto to be accepted into society. I'm like, probably the future of crypto does hinge on a certain extent to proper regulation. So Sam Bankman Freed from FTX, FTX is a crypto exchange. He's been really working on regulation, but the criticism of him is that he's basically

making regulation for FTX to succeed, rather than like the entire industry to succeed. And he also owns Alameda Ventures, which is like a crypto venture company, and they're buying up the distressed assets of these crypto companies that went belly up because of the quond, because of that implosion. So he's kind of like everywhere.

And crypto. Now explain this a little bit, maybe this is gonna sound very naive of me, but San Bacon Freed is not a politician. No, he's. So when you say he's working on regulations, what does that mean? So it means he's like there and like is he like lobbying? I

Don't know Well the last time I did see him I think he was on stage with like Bill Clinton and oh Yeah, the Bahamas thing. Yeah, Tony are not Tony Robbins. Oh Tony Blair. Yeah, but who's the football guy? Anyway, um, they just I don't know No sports. He just got the worst. I'm not. Anyway.

But yeah, they were all there, I think. And, but yeah, so, Sam Bingham and Fred, not a politician, but the regulatory space of crypto right now, a lot of people are paying attention to it. So I believe he's just there, like helping guide it. Cause he's testified in front of Congress before about what's going on.

And, but isn't, uh but isn't regulation kind of like antithetical to the whole crypto? I don't want to say mindset. Yeah, ethos. Yes. Yeah. Well, yeah. But like in order for something to and this is just like one of the things where it has to be how it is sort of deal in order for it to be accepted and for people not to get

arrested. Like what happened with tornado cash, which, but I like when crypto guys get arrested. I guess I'm kind of a crypto guy. Oh, I wouldn't want you to get it right. I don't want that either. Yeah. But I do think like there has been some people who probably should be arrested. But anyway, so the, the whole space requires regulation in order for it to be integrated properly

into society. And the question is, should it be integrated? And like, that's, I mean, I just think there's a lot of existential questions that crypto, the industry is going to have to answer about itself moving forward. Like, do they want to be integrated with society? Do they want to be a fringe financing? Are they the digitalization of finance or the financialization of the digital?

Like, there's all these questions that they're gonna have to figure out, yeah. Right. And so, but would you say it's kind of analogous to the stock market? Like, you know, we have the SEC and all these regulations that people have to abide by before they enter into the market.

Is that kind of what they're talking about when we're talking about when we're talking about regulating crypto? Yeah, I know exactly. Yeah, like are the tokens like it issued securities and how does that sort of impact how they trade if they are securities? Because there's a whole lot of paperwork associated with that, you know? Right. And do you have any insight on what Sam Bankman-Fried would like or is it to, are you not sure what he's? I mean, essentially it would be a lot of like KYC stuff, so know your customer. And that would require a lot of information on, and I think this is right,

but essentially it would require a lot of information on the customers that are being associated with different crypto apps, which would completely tear apart DeFi, which is decentralized finance, which allows people to be pseudo-anonymous and not have to worry about having their identity broadcasted to the world. Right. Yeah. Yeah. Anonymity will be our final. Anonymity. Anonymity.

You're up. I just want to try. It was really great. Final I wanted to see that word and like I always want to say pseudo anonymous, but there's always like a Brat anonymous Huh, suedo not know. Yeah, but there's always like a break in my brain. Like do you have words like that? Where yeah, yeah, so you know what's the hardest word in the world? Indefatigable in the I You know what's the hardest word in the world? Indefatigable. Indef... Yeah, I won't...

I don't know. I don't... Yeah. But I thought... But like I literally sat at home and I was like, Indefatigable. Indefatigable. Now I can say it whenever I want.

Yeah. Good words. It's full of stuff. What does it mean? It means like unable to tie. That's not a secret. So not fatiguing exactly just like how crypto But it doesn't make sense though right because they have in and

So if you were fatigable, it would mean you would be able to get tired But if you were de-fatecable you wouldn't be and then they put an in in there In-de-fatecable in defa-tocable in defa-tocable Red that word in animal farm. Oh yeah, that's how I learned a lot of words too is reading. Oh yeah, that's the best way to learn words. No, it's not because you never hear them say aloud. And so when you try to say them in public. No, but that's okay.

But that's great and fine. I have a thing where like if you make fun of someone for pronouncing something wrong, it's because they read it. So like you're being like, oh, what, you fucking read that word? I just heard someone say it to me and I was like, that sounds cool. I'll fucking say it. But you read it.

So it's like, I don't think a lot of people make that connection though. I do. I always say, if you pronounce a word wrong, like, oh, who cares? Oh, well. At least know the word. It is.

Indefatigable. Yeah. Ah. You can't hear it because you don't have your headphones in but he just hit it again. Who just hit it again? Pit-boy. Indefaticable. Oh, he had the pronunciation. He keeps hitting it.

I don't know. You're right. I don't have anything in my ears. Yeah. Just only my thoughts. Was there anything else you really wanted to get to or you think we hit a lot? I think we hit everything. We have St. Market, crypto.

I mean, there's like so much to talk. Like bonds are really interesting right now, which is like a weird sentence to say, but bonds are really cool. But I mean, yeah, I think this is good. Energy markets. There's so much to discuss. Well, we can always have you back on. And I'm so happy you came.

This was so fun. Yeah. Things are having me. Thanks for also everyone. Go follow Kyla on. And I'm so happy you came. This was so fun. Yeah. Things are having me. Thanks for also everyone go follow Kyla on. Oh, go follow her newsletter. Oh, yeah, plug anything you want. Oh, yeah. She's a she's the best source on the economy out there. She makes it fun. Interesting. She's honestly, you are like, I don't know how you keep so many things in your head. It's very, it's very impressive. So I was actually thinking about my thoughts this morning. You were thinking about your thoughts? Yeah, because I was like, man, I was like typing out notes for this.

And I was like, I really do feel like that guy that's like drawing the lines on that meme, like that guy. Because like my brain is trying to like connect the dots in my head. So like I have this big visualization in my head of like all the different things that are going on. Like here's the bond market. Do you ever feel like you have the perfect thing in your head, but you're like, oh, there's no way I can get it. Yeah, all the time. Yeah. I'm like, if I could just open it up, you could see me be like, oh, we should all crack our heads open. Tell them that, tell them who they can find you, because you're an invaluable resource

to care about this stuff. So, kyle.slipsack.com. I'm on TikTok at Kyle Skin, Twitter at Kyle Skin, Instagram at Kyle Skin. I have YouTube channel as well, and then I have a podcast called Let's Appreciate. So, I think that's everything. And they're all fantastic.

Yeah, there's me with Mary and my watermelon thesis. Yeah, her stuff is so fun I really mean it and she makes it Very easy to understand and keep up with everything. Thank you. Thanks for coming on Kyla. Thanks, Rangie Also, Ben is not here, but we do have I do want to let people know We are still doing after hours and we have a very special guest. We have a we have famous author Philip Matteries. He's gonna be talking about his book. Whoop special guest. We have a we have famous author, Philip Maddery's. He's gonna be talking about his book.

Whoops. Horn if you're honky. It's a you're gonna want to stick around for that. It's it's a real treat for me to get to talk to one of my favorite authors. So I will see you in after hours. Okay. Bye. This week on after hours. And you keep tossing me these after dark things. Is that famous author? Yeah! No matter what.

I'll get cucked. I want my end of the cop. Cucked. We are best friends. That's gonna hurt a lot of people out there. They think me and Ben are best friends. Alright, people know that I introduced you guys. Sign up on TMGStudios.tv to watch the full bonus episode.

the full bonus episode.