The Tucker Carlson Show - Steve Sailer: BLM, Karens, Donald Trump, and What Democrats Don’t Want You to Know about DEI

Episode Date: June 25, 2024

Steve Sailer has spent a lifetime observing human behavior and coming to obvious, sensible conclusions. For the crime of noticing reality, he’s been ostracized, although secretly everyone still reads him. (00:00) The Great Awakening / George Floyd (35:55) The fall of the NYT / Anti-white racism in the media (40:30) Why do Republicans put up with accusations of racism? (1:05:50) How Steve Sailer Predicted Election Outcomes (1:49:30) Is the country becoming more open and receptive? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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time. Visit your local Chevrolet dealer for details. Welcome to the Tucker Carlson Show. We bring you stories that have not been showcased anywhere else. And they're not censored, of course, because we're not gatekeepers. We are honest brokers here to tell you what we think you need to know and do it honestly. Check out all of our content at tuckercarlson.com. Here's the episode. So I got to say, it's a little weird to be sitting across from you in my barn. I was thinking this morning, you're almost like Matt Drudge used to be. Everyone read the Drudge report starting in the 90s, but no one wanted to admit it in the news business, but everybody read it. But Drudge himself was this mysterious figure. I actually knew him sort of. I've never met you. Everybody I know on both sides has read you for years. You're not crazy. You're not a bigot,

but somehow you became a sort of mysterious outlaw figure that no one was allowed to meet or talk to. Is it weird to be out in public? Yeah, it actually is. You know, for 10 years from 2013 into 2023, you basically couldn't go see Steve Saylor give a speech anywhere. You know, I was being signed up for conferences. The last speech I gave in 2013 was an analysis of the Obama versus Romney exit polls. Didn't seem all that controversial to me. But for the next decade, every time I'd be invited to a conference, and about six weeks later, I'd get an email going, well, it turned out the SPLC or Media Matters were thinking about protesting and how that can turn into violence and so forth.

They canceled our contract. I just kept writing, but suddenly ice started to break up maybe last year. This year, I've been traveling around the country and meeting people who've been reading me for years or just started reading me it's it's a lot of fun i i appreciate it it's just funny though because you know in a world where there are some wackos and there are people who advocate violence you would seem to be maybe the last person who would scare people i mean you're effectively an informal academic or social scientist. You're a numbers guy.

Yeah. I'm kind of like Bill James, the baseball statistics analyst for the social sciences in the US. Like for three years now, I've been raising a stink about, all right, what was the impact of Black Lives Matter on black lives? And as far as I can tell, it's got Black Lives Matter during the two eras of triumph after Ferguson in 2015-16, and then the big one during the Floyd effect, the racial reckoning of the 2020s. They've got an incremental 15 to 20,000 extra black lives murdered through incremental homicides versus the baseline or just splattered on the pavement through increased traffic fatalities.

So all killed by white cops? No. The vast majority of black shooting deaths is at the hands of other blacks. For example, in 2020, there was just an enormous explosion in mass shootings with at least four victims, wounded or killed, take place in black-on-black events, typically Saturday night at the club or a funeral. Some of them are organized crime, very strategic, like in the TV show The Wire, but a lot is just one guy disses another guy and people pull out guns and start shooting. And yet that's very little interest to the democratic establishment, the need for what I call point of use gun control. The Democrats tend to obsess over the need for

point of sale gun control to keep rednecks out in the country from buying rifles, legally buying rifles at Walmart. And in truth, what we've seen, it's like in the 1990s into the 2010s in New York City, where people like Giuliani, Bloomberg, and Braddon did a great job of bringing down the murder rate. What really works is point of use gun control. You discourage lowlifes from packing their illegal handguns when they go out because they're more worried about the cops and getting caught carrying an illegal piece. So they leave it up in their grandmother's attic, stuffed away. And the fewer people who are carrying guns on the streets in New York City, the less

often they pull them out and start shooting. And you get this virtuous cycle. But nobody understands that. So during the Great Awakening of the last decade, and especially during what used to be called the racial reckoning before the whole George Floyd thing has pretty much gotten memory hold lately, just huge increases in black deaths by murder and by car crash. Okay. So can we back up? You said a bunch of different things i want to follow up yeah um but let's just start at the very beginning you said the george floyd thing has been effectively

memory hold yeah what was the you know it's been almost exactly four years since that happened yeah memorial day 2020 with that the benefit of you know some time to think about it, what was that? What was it? To a large extent, it didn't happen. The follow-on events, such as a huge increase in the murder rate, especially among blacks. The murder rate was 44% more blacks were killed by homicide in 2021 than in 2019, the year before. And 39% more blacks died in car crashes in 2021 than in 2019. Car crashes. Yeah.

It all ties together because when the establishment, as they did after George Floyd's death, said, okay, here's the biggest problem in America, even bigger than COVID for the moment, is that we impose too much law and order on African Americans. We are pulling them over for ticky-tack things like speeding and not having registration on their car and just driving badly. And then we're checking for outstanding criminal warrants and maybe searching for illegal handguns. This is all incredibly discriminatory. So the cops went, oh, okay, you don't want us to do that? All right, we'll be in the donut shop. And so the number of traffic stops dropped way down. So people started driving worse, they drove faster, and they started carrying illegal handguns more.

And the number of shootings, the number of homicides just went through the roof just immediately. I can show week by week data from the Center for Disease Control. It's pretty astonishing. Beginning with George Floyd's death. Yes. I mean, the, the, the all time most murderous day in the storied history of Chicago's murder narrative, you know, going back,

blowing away the St. Valentine's day massacre by Al Capone and all that was May 31st, 2020, six days after George Floyd's death when 18 Chicagoans were murdered that day. Why? Pretty much because the cops went down to the Magnificent Mile to keep it from being torched and looted. And the word quickly got around that you can do anything you want in the neighborhood and nobody's gonna gonna notice and so all sorts of vengeance was just taken on you know

on random people out there for you know for personal reasons and then it just went on and on for several more years fortunately last, last year or so, the murder rate started finally to come down. You don't think there's any, and you have the numbers, right? Can we see them? Yeah. You don't think there's any question

that this was related to the Floyd story, to the Floyd events? Let's take a look. Let's take a look at the CDC's data weekly all right this is the Center for Disease Control collects data weekly on all the deaths in the United States. You can ask for any one particular thing. So this is weeks from 2018 into 2023. The blue line indicates the beginning of COVID lockdowns. The black line is George Floyd's death.

All right. The red line is the number of African-Americans who died by homicide that week. So it's bouncing around. It has some seasonality. In 2018, 2019, George Floyd dies and suddenly, boom, it goes to this enormous peak and then just slowly fades over the next four years into 2023. But it's immediate. It's the second George Floyd ODs.

People start shooting each other. Yeah, about probably by the Friday after he died on Memorial Day on Monday. It just, you know, there was just a giant cultural revolution and

basically people lost fear of the cops because everybody, the establishment, the media, the politicians were telling America that we have too much policing and too much law and order. And so we got a lot more murder. It's kind of ironic because the name of the movement was black lives matter and it wound up getting an enormous number of black lives, uh, murdered incremental versus what you see in 2000. Boy, that's not even a close call. I mean, that is absolutely.

Yeah. social sciences, probably since Angus Deaton and Case's finding in 2015 of deaths of despair and how the white working class's life expectancy was dropping in the early 21st century. The other, but the big part of it is that, oh, it also applies to motor vehicle accident deaths. So you could see this pretty consistent level. African-Americans have traditionally been not bad drivers. They don't have the kind of problem with driving traditionally the way they had with homicide. But boom, a new plateau that's endured ever since. And to put this in a longer term historical perspective, let me find graphs of the CDC data monthly going back to 1999 through 2021.

These are homicide deaths as opposed to murders perpetrated. So these are the races of victims. And blacks, Hispanics, whites in blue. Well, that is quite a spike. You can see 9-11 there. That's what it is. 3,000 Americans die by homicide at the hands of Al-Qaeda. Okay. And then most years you've got, yeah, you've got more people get murdered in summer than in winter.

They're out partying and so forth. But it's pretty consistent. You can see an increase over here in the Ferguson effect after Black Lives Matter emerges in 2014, which was a pretty decent year. And then all of a sudden, murders go up dramatically in 2015-16. That helps get Trump elected you might remember how Black Lives Matter terrorists were assassinating Cops in Dallas and Baton Rouge and so forth Although that's really been memory hold Anyway, Jeff Sessions came in Kind of told the police departments. No, you know, we're not gonna persecute you for taking for doing your jobs

Alright, then Trump got rid of sessions departments, no, you know, we're not going to persecute you for doing your jobs. All right. Then Trump got rid of Sessions. Maybe murder started going up a little more. And then comes 2020 and the George Floyd racial reckoning. It's just enormous increase compared to anything else in the 21st century. Now, one reason we don't hear about this is because these graphs are kind of embarrassing because the black line of homicide death rate is so much higher than the light brown Hispanic line there. Hispanics actually in the 21st century have done a pretty good job of lowering their rate

of being murdered. And finally though, when the racial reckoning came along, it got worse again. So we're losing a bunch of that progress. The blue line is the white line down there. It's an order of magnitude below the black line. And it's considered really bad taste to notice, you know, differences in the homicide rate. The other thing, what I point out is motor vehicle deaths. Motor vehicle deaths per capita, this isn't per mile driven,

weren't too bad. They didn't have big racial differences in the past. The whites and the blue line often had the worst. Blacks weren't bad. Hispanics weren't good. But then after 2008, Hispanics actually got better. And the brown-Hispanic line is doing pretty good until the racial reckoning. But you can see the black line just went through the roof again compared to the rest

of the 21st century. So what's happened is during the Great Awakening, during the era of Black Lives Matter, what we see is that deaths, two different kinds of deaths, homicides and car crashes, what I call deaths of exuberance in contrast to Case and Deaton's deaths of despair, seem to be, have gotten highly correlated. When Black Lives Matter is winning, people, especially black Americans, die more deaths of exuberance until Black Lives Matter goes out of fashion again and the cops are allowed to like pull over bad drivers and check for illegal handguns. So does anybody know that?

No, it's hardly caught on at all. I mean, part of the problem is because I discovered in 2021, then if you're a social scientist, you want to write a paper for an academic journal it's kind of like either well either I cite Steve Saylor but I might get cancelled for citing this horrible crime thinker or I don't cite him and then his followers on Twitter

all get real mad at me for not citing him here's my view just go ahead don't cite me just get the word out there. It's more important that America know about how badly it's screwed up, how many tens of thousands of incremental Americans have died because America's elites get infatuated with Black Lives Matter now and then, than it is for me to get publicity about it. Why do the bad people have so much power? Because the bad people have all the money.

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But they comport with what you notice already. I mean, you sort of knew that when you have riots, people die. And a lot of people who died were black. Not all, however. But it was pretty obvious from day one that Black Lives Matter wasn't helping anybody, including and maybe especially black people. So what would be the motive? What's the motive?

There were a lot of motives for Black Lives Matter. was that America had gotten better after the 1990s, after the crack wars at policing, that the drugs that were driving crime were not particularly marketed to inner city blacks, the opioids, the oxycodone, and so forth. Even when the Mexican cartels started selling black tar heroin, they also focused, like the Sackler family, on like, you know, who are a bunch of people if they drop dead, nobody's going to care.

And that's like white people in small towns in Kentucky, that kind of stuff. So you had this big rise in deaths of despair. Wait, so you're saying you think that was the Sacklers and the Mexican drug cartels, morally equivalent, I would say, or close, targeted rural whites, Appalachian whites, for example, on purpose because they knew that nobody would care when they died? that the Mexican cartels had a strategy that, no, we don't want to sell to particularly shooty people near media capitals. We'll sell to people who will overdose in quiet in small towns in the Ohio River Valley that nobody's going to care much about. And so, I mean, nobody paid any attention to this increase in the white working class death rate until just fortuitously in 2015, Angus Deaton was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics.

And then a couple of weeks later, he and his wife published this important paper saying, you know, if you look at the CDC data, life expectancy for white working class people without, you know, without college degrees has been dropping in the 21st century. And it's not supposed to happen. And it seems to be overdoses on painkillers. It seems to be suicide. It seems to be alcoholism. Just deaths of despair. Seven years into Obama. Yeah.

Yeah. 15 years into when it started around 2000, when the Sackler family, Purdue Pharmaceuticals, started their big push for opioid prescriptions. But how would no one notice this, I wonder? You know, there's no organizations dedicated to the welfare of white working class people. So the fact that they're dying in great numbers of novel causes, it basically relied on two academics and who said, wow, this is interesting.

And one of them happened to win the Nobel Prize just before their paper came out. So people paid attention to their paper because, oh, yeah, I heard about Angus Deaton and the Nobel Prize last month. Well, that's kind of, if I can just ask you to pause this, I think you're right, but it's sort of interesting if you think about it. There are no organizations dedicated to the welfare of rural whites.

Yeah. But there are a lot of organizations dedicated to the welfare of a million other groups that are much smaller in number. Yeah. So why aren't there any organizations dedicated to that? You know, a few people have tried to set up organizations that speak for white people

the way that Al Sharpton speaks for black people and countless other organizations speak for Jewish people or Latinos and so forth and are highly respectable and are constantly quoted in the newspaper. You know, a bright, very gentlemanly fellow named Jared Taylor tried to do this for the last 30 years and, you know, he's still has a phobia about anybody speaking up for the emerging white minority. Everybody, you know, the conventional wisdom is that whites are rapidly being turned into a minority. And that's a good thing. thing and uh but we're not going to treat ever treat whites like the minority that they're becoming and in multiple states across the country we're going to treat them as the all-powerful

omnipotent legacy majority who can be blamed for everything from now on but that's i i certainly uh sure looks like that well i think it's absolutely right but if their life expectancy is declining faster than anyone else's and they are dying then i mean it it does seem a little odd yeah to lie about that i mean what's the intent there it's it's nobody lied so much as they just wonder why are you interested in this what kind of sinister reason do you have for worrying about the hundred million working class white people in the country who are generating these new problems and dropping dead from them and, you know, putting out the alarm about it is just considered some sort of white supremacist, white nationalist, you know, dog whistle that, you know, will

lead to slavery and the Holocaust and all sorts of imaginings. And the other half of the white population wasn't suffering. The kind of people who don't have a bad back because they don't lift heavy things on the job, they're not hooked on oxycodone or when prescriptions got tightened up, they didn't go over to Mexican heroin and then to fentanyl and so forth. So who cares? We're just talking about deplorables here. But okay.

I mean, everyone has preferences and a lot of people um in washington new york and la don't like the voting patterns of the population you're describing but they are human beings and americans and if they're going extinct um or they're dying in huge numbers in any case uh to ignore that or downplay it is is, isn't it? Yeah. I mean, to my view, they are our fellow American citizens, as are African Americans. Yes. complete self-destructiveness brought about just historic changes in the number of black lives dying in kind of the opposite of the white working class deaths of exuberance, that you could see it in the Ferguson effect in 2015-16 and now in the huge Floyd effect of the 2020s. I mean, we're talking something like an incremental 15 to 20,000 more blacks have died in car crashes and murders than if the baseline of a few years ago had been maintained.

And that's just enormous that's that's easily the black death death total in vietnam maybe vietnam and korea put together uh and people should be talking about that too because african americans are our fellow american citizens and we ought to be like keeping an eye on them and not refraining from noticing just because it's embarrassing just because who's it embarrassing to elites the convent the propounders of the conventional wisdom uh the respectable prestige press academia uh the democratic uh party and so forth. They promoted all of this stuff. They took Black Lives Matter at face value

and did very little investigation. I mean, basically, you weren't anymore allowed to ask the question like, okay, Blacks, men tend to get shot by the police about two to three times as often as white men per capita. That's a big difference, but it's nowhere near as big a difference as blacks tend to get shot by each other about 10 times as much as whites get shot by each other. And probably blacks get shot by non-police whites, you know, dozens of times less often than they're shot by other blacks. You know, young black men in this country have an enormous homicide problem, a gun homicide problem. I looked up for males age 15 to 34, their death by gun homicide in 2022. And young black men died about 50, not 15, but 50 times more per capita by gunfire

than young Asian men, 24 times more than young white men, and six times more than Hispanics. The Hispanics are fairly comparable in poverty rate and education and so forth. But they don't have anywhere near the kind of gun problem that African Americans have developed. And I think, but is anybody out there asking young African-Americans and telling them, you know, if you guys could not get your homicide rate down to the Hispanic level, if you could get it down halfway from where it is now to this Hispanic level, this country would be so much better off and race relations would be so much

better. But, you know, you're not supposed to put crime statistics like that in the newspaper. It's just considered, you know, racist to mention all these government statistics. So it's obviously not, you know, reality is not racist, you know, by definition. I hope not. Right. But again, sorry to keep asking variations of the establishment, such as the prestige press, academia, much of the corporate world as well. The Democrats have realized over the last few decades that America is becoming more diverse.

Immigration is driving diversity, patterns of interracial marriage, more people who have some claim to be non-white. Also, there's the constant generation of new identities, such as in the last decade, transgenderism. So as America becomes more diverse, the Democratic Party can profit by being the party of diversity, the party of the diverse, the party of people from the fringes of American society, the party of people that the Democrats would call the marginalized from the margins of American society. So, you're talking about immigrants, you're talking about black church ladies, transgenders, Jews, Muslims, et cetera, et cetera. Now, the one problem with all this is that while it works pretty well on paper and the Democrats have managed to win the popular vote in coalition of the fringes of the marginalized from turning on each other, from becoming a circular firing squad. Because a lot of the components have very little in common. Yeah. As we're seeing with Jews and Muslims right know, these people do not like each other. Do the black church ladies who

were the steadfast Democrats, do they really get along that well with the gays, much less with the transgenders? Nah. Do the Asian immigrants have much in common with Hispanic immigrants? Nah, not really. It can go on and on. It's inherent in the Democrats' grand strategy to be the party of diversity, the party of the fringes of American society. So how can they unite their coalition of the margins? And the one strategy the Democrats have come up with is basically to foster racist animus against core Americans, people who, you know, basically are demographically somewhat like George Washington, Ben Franklin, John Adams,

that are white, that are men, that are straight, maybe they own homes, maybe they're married, they have kids. And to make them the bad guys in the American narrative. And that's the only thing the Democrats and their colleagues in academia, etc., can think of to hold together this diverse coalition. in just racist bigotry being expressed in, you know, the pages of the New York Times in this century. Things that in the past would have been considered rather in poor taste and extremist. So the New York Times will, you know, has put in a lot of effort in recent years explaining the racist, sexist slur of Karen as this anti-white woman racist slur to their millions of subscribers so that they know just the right time to use it. And they make sure not to use it on any non-white Karens and so forth. You recently had on-

Can I just ask, my impression is that most of the readership of the New York Times is Karens. Yeah, I would think. What I mean by that is like screechy, fragile, barren NPR listing middle-aged lawyers. Yeah, that's- Yeah. I mean, in my mind's know, maybe the modal subscriber perhaps. And yeah, the, you know, the New York Times is not the failing New York Times anymore. It's, they've done a very good job of identifying people who will pay to subscribe to have their

worldview vindicated over and over again. And kind of for the times to bury inconvenient facts that don't support their view of the world, you know, in the 27th paragraph or something like that. So yeah, you recently had on Jeremy Carl, he's got a new book, The Unprotected Class, that documents a great length, just this trend toward ever more anti-white racism in the respectable press and in media and the democratic speeches and so forth. And, you know, it's finally starting to backfire on Democrats. People are starting to notice just how much awful stuff is said about kind of the core Americans that tend to vote Republican. So, I don't know.

I mean, have you been seeing this just over the last 10 years? Just huge increases and putting down white people. Have I noticed it? Yeah. It's one of the defining facts of American society. And it's always perpetrated by people who are simultaneously, in the same sentence, giving you a lecture about racism. Yes. Shut up, white man.

You're evil for being white and racist. Huh? racism yes shut up white man you're evil for being white and racist huh there's so many like the contradictions in that sentence are so inherent that um it's hard to believe anyone could utter it but no of course i noticed that and i guess what i'm really struck by and i don't know the answer is why people put up with it so at that point it's like well you know like if you're attacking my children for their skin color, then I get my gun, right? But nobody does get his gun. They just sort of sit there and, okay, can't say anything. Like why, I don't, why would anyone

ever put up with that? I mean, I mean, white Americans go out of their way, not to just go, oh, yes, I hear what you're saying about how the evils of whiteness and my children are children of whiteness and they have oppressed the world. And I've actually thought about that. And while that may sound like just lowbrow racist bigotry on your part, it actually has a really impressive intellectual heritage going back to the Frankfurt School and Gramsci and updated by, you know, in the critical race theory by Marcuse. And people will go on and on about, you know, what you're saying isn't as moronic as it sounds and hate-filled bigotry, it's actually you're getting this and it all goes back to Marxism or Foucault or something like that. So yeah, Republicans, whites have been reluctant to call out just anti-white racism for what it is but why is i mean clearly something

is broken inside right i mean like why would you put up with an attack that's inherently unreasonable right you don't choose your race therefore you probably should attack someone on the basis of his race it's totally anti-american as defined by consensus over the last 60 years. That's one thing we're not allowed to do. And yet it's done at greater scale now than during the Jim Crow period. So like, why would you even consider putting up with that? There must be something wrong with you.

Like you hate yourself, obviously. And Republicans, they, Republicans like other, other races and good for them. And, and yeah, they want, they want to blame the tendency that's been growing, especially in the Black Lives Matter era of the last decade, to just say the most bigoted things. They want to blame it on something old like Marxism. This isn't what African Americans want to say. My son's friends on his high school football team, they're not bigoted racists. And the truth is, yeah, a lot of them aren't. I mean, a lot of this stuff is coming out of colleges and so forth. It's kind of soft degree majors and so on. But, you know, taking claims to have some deep intellectual heritage is naive.

It's just people with soft majors who got DEI, sinecures, and so forth, and corporations and colleges, just expressing their basic prejudices, their basic bigotry. And, you know, we should be laughing at it. We shouldn't be taking it that seriously. We should be satirizing it and scorning it and making jokes about it. And that could well get the message across. You may have come to the obvious conclusion that the real debate is not between Republican

and Democrat or socialist and capitalist, right, left. The real battle is between people who are lying on purpose and people who are trying to tell you the truth. It's between good and evil. It's between honesty and falsehood. And we hope we are on the former side. That's why we created this network, the Tucker Carlson Network. And we invite you to subscribe to it. Go to TuckerCarlson.com slash podcast. Our entire archive is there.

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Protect yourself before it's too late. Identityguard.com slash Tucker. So can I ask, I think a lot of people assume that when whites, who obviously founded the country, become a minority in the country their ancestors founded that it'll stop um whites will be the legacy majority i mean i'll give you an example uh in 1955 a 14 year old black child named em named Emmett Till was murdered for making pretty aggressive paths toward a white woman in the South. All right. Married white woman in a store. Yeah, in a store.

And then that was a big story at the time and helped lead to the civil rights era of the 1960s. And then it sort of faded from the newspapers. The New York Times mentioned Emmett Till's name twice in 1980. In 2000, they were up to mentioning him four times. By, I think, 2018, they were mentioning him something like one and a half times a week. About as often as Chief Justice John Roberts. Not really.

In the New York Times. It just became this huge breaking news story. And I joke that they had a jet at LaGuardia fueled up, always ready to fly to anywhere to report on the latest Emmett Till news. All right. This kind of antiquarianism is increasing because, I mean, the truth for liberals is the liberals have been pretty much in charge of most things involving race since the 1960s. And they haven't really accomplished that much. So they kind of want to hide their record and focus people on pre-civil rights antiquities

such as Emmett Till, or you constantly hear these days about FDR's redlining of FHA loans in 1938 as the reason that black neighborhoods tend to have lower property values than white neighborhoods or Latino or Asian neighborhoods. And, you know, couldn't have anything to do with current crime rates. It couldn't have anything to do with discipline in the local schools. It's got to do with the nefarious plot of FDR, you know, in almost 90 years ago. And... Why does no one... So often, you know, all these Southern cities are famous in American culture

for their association. You know, the Edmund Pettus Bridge, Selma, Alabama. You know, the trial in Wilmington. You know, there's like these moments in the civil rights era that people are still, as you pointed out,

talking about. Philadelphia, Mississippi. Why does no one ever go back to those places, those physical places and find out how they're doing? Yeah. Birmingham, not doing that well. Selma, not doing that well. Yeah, it's, yeah, what then ends up is you then have, you end up getting a long lecture about how the construction of a freeway in 1958 destroyed the booming black Wall Street of Birmingham or whatever. And all sorts of things like that. There's a large number of pre-canned excuses.

But is there any effort to actually improve the lives of black people that you're aware of? I mean, what does improve the lives of black people? Basically having some law and order, keeping people from carrying guns on the street. That's probably done quite a bit of good. Basically, the parts of the country that are run by Republicans tend to have somewhat better performing blacks, students in schools and so forth. For example, Frisco, Texas, a fast growing exurb of Dallas,

has the smallest test score gap of any school district in the country. It has the highest, it's about 11% black and 20% Hispanic, and it has the highest black and Hispanic test scores in the United States. Really? And the smallest white-black gap in the country. Madison, Wisconsin, tend to have bigger gaps, not just because they have a lot of smart white people living there, but they do a lousier job in San Francisco of educating blacks because it's such a liberal, progressive environment that they do a poor job of doing things like having well-disciplined schools and focusing on basics and so forth. have some choices in life who are looking to get ahead, looking to do good things for their kids, to be moving to the South, to Texas, to red states, and so forth, where they can, and away from the highly liberal parts of the country. It's not a panacea, but yeah, it does some good at the margin.

Where are we on the continuum? In other words, the graphs that you showed the four years after the Floyd verdict or Floyd death, if you extended those, if you doubled them, what would they look like? Where are we now? We're hopefully past the worst of the racial reckoning. What I've noticed in the newspapers was that the front section around a few months before the 2022 election seemed to get the word from maybe the Biden White House that like, you know, this whole George Floyd racial reckoning thing, that's not going to be a big vote winner in the 2022 midterms, especially in the New York City area. So let's go easy on it. Let's not talk about it all the time.

Maybe it wasn't such a good idea. And then it just sort of disappeared from the serious news part of the paper. In the cultural section in the back, they never got the memo. So there's constantly discussions about how, okay, in a great leap forward for equity at the Art Institute of Chicago, they fired all the nice white lady docents who work for free giving tours of the great artwork so they can hire people of color and pay them to work there and stuff like that. And you kept hearing all those kinds of stories going on much longer about the wonders of the racial reckoning because they hadn't gotten the message. let's not persecute police departments quite as hard as we were, has probably done some good about getting the cops out of the donut shop and actually pulling over people driving 100 miles an hour. And so, yeah, that's made some progress,

but it took the Hispanics a while longer to get the word that the cops weren't being proactive. And so their car crash and murder rates have gone way up. And, you know, even if things are getting better now, they're going to take a number of years to get back to where we were in 2019, much less where we were before Ferguson in 2014. You know, the death rate is still up like in these deaths of exuberance, like 30 to 40% over 2014.

And way up over the, you know, non-black average. So the obvious question is like, why? And it's been going on a long time. Has there ever been a serious effort made in good faith to figure out why rates of violence in black areas are so much higher, which they are and have always been? But why? Yeah. People have been studying it for the longest time. You know, Time Magazine ran an article in the late 50s about the biggest worry of big city mayors

is the growing problem of black crime. You know, at this point, cities have done, you know, we went through a bunch of phases. We liberalized the country in the 60s, in the Warren court years. We cut the imprisonment times and so forth. And that wound up doubling the per capita murder rate in the 60s and 70s. It doubled? Yeah. It was by 1980. It was twice what it was in 1961 per capita. That's a lot of dead people. Yeah.

That's a lot of dead people and did horrors to American urban life. People fled to the suburbs. They're all now denounced as these villains who engaged in white flight. But, you know, like my wife's family lived in the Austin neighborhood on the west side of Chicago. And when it started to integrate, they joined a liberal Catholic group and said, okay, we're all going to stick it out and make integration work

and we're not going to flee to the suburbs. And my in-laws stuck it out three years longer than the rest of the members of the club did. But at that point, the number of felonies against their children was piling up. And so they finally sold out at a loss of like half of what they could have gotten for their house if they'd sold it three years before. Tens of millions of people. Did that change their views? What a tragedy for them. Yeah.

You know, my late father-in-law was the tuba player for the Chicago Lyric Opera. So he ended up buying a farm 63 miles out of town and then commuting to work to play the tuba in the opera house downtown. It was kind of a disaster for them. And there's tens of millions of Americans who are still alive who can tell these stories of what actually happened. And the media is not that interested in hearing them. You know, the media wants to portray these people as the bad guys who, because of their bigotry and not because of all the felonies against their children, you know, moved out to the suburbs. Interestingly, right across the street from where my in-laws lived is the municipality of Oak Park, Illinois,

a suburb that Ernest Hemingway supposedly said was the land of broad lawns and narrow mines. But it's really nice. It has all this great Frank Lloyd Wright architecture. They actually did something really intelligent and really illegal in the 1970s, which was they put a racial quota on real estate agents. It was called the Black-a-Block Club and said, no, you can't make a huge fast windfall by terrifying everybody into selling right now.

And because it's the whole block is going to tip black. We're going to do this in an orderly fashion and we're going to use a racial quota. And it worked. It kept Oak Park from, from going all black the way the Austin neighborhood next door has gone. And Austin just is bleak. It's kind of post-apocalyptic looking now. And Oak Park looks kind of like this gay utopia for older gay couples who like fixing up beautiful Frank Lloyd Wright houses. So, you know,

liberals did some things to protect themselves, but they just didn't tell anybody about it. So. Was anyone ever held responsible for any of this? You know, if you, if you read the press, yeah, there's been huge condemnation of all the white families that fled crime as that they're engaging in white flight. And if their grandchildren move back to the city because the crime has come down a little, then they're engaging in the great

crime of gentrification. It's kind of can't win, either way you lose. There's all sorts of talk, Mayor Pete and the transportation department's always denouncing racist roads, that building highways was destroying black neighborhoods and so forth. We've rewritten the past over and over again so we don't

learn anything from it because we just specify a few important things that fit this narrative that everybody has now. So we'll see. The obvious goal is what they call equity and the term equity is one of those words. It's not a secret what the DEI people want when they specify equity. What they're talking about when they're talking about equity and generational wealth and so forth

is they want your equity in your home and they want to tax it away and take it as reparations and spend it on themselves. And that's kind of the bottom line. Whether that'll get carried out, I don't know. We've seen reparation programs start to put out checks in super liberal places like Evanston, Illinois, even in California, the idea of handing out huge checks to black people for the horrors of living in California didn't go that well. We have too large a Hispanic population to pull that off. But can I ask, how exactly would the DEI community steal the equity out of your home? Well, I mean, one start has been to reopen ancient history.

What do you call it when the government condemns your property and sells it and buys it for what it thinks it's worth? We've seen cases. Eminent domain? Yeah, eminent domain cases from a century ago. We saw, so if you're black and you happen to have a family legend that we used to own this really nice piece of property, but then it got eminently domain to make into a park, that that was racist and we should get that property back.

So the descendants of a black family in Manhattan Beach recently, who Manhattan Beach had condemned their property and a few other and some white neighbors of theirs to build a park. And they recently got the city council to declare that that was racist in 1928. And that if it wasn't for this, they no doubt would have held on to the property through the depression, through everything that's happened ever since. They would have scrimped and saved to hold on to that land next to the beach, which is now worth $20 million. So they got a check for $20 million for that. You'll see, you know, this is a general trend that's speeding up as, you know, plaintiffs' attorneys are looking for these old cases and, you know, it's not like they can relitigate the case because there's nobody alive that remembers, that can testify or anything like that.

So there'll be lots of attempts like that to, you know, basically hand out large amounts of money. And maybe it won't be called reparations, but you'll see this. And it's definitely been increasing in the 2020s. But doesn't demographic change driven by immigration scramble the formula a little bit? Yeah. So I'm 55. You're older than I am by a bit.

But we both grew up in a country where, you know, it was white majority, black minority. And with some, we're from California, both of us. So there was always a Hispanic component, but I think most Americans sort of thought of it as a white country with a black minority, a mistreated black minority. In some cases that was true. But that's not the country that we're in right now and it definitely is not the country we're going to be in in 10 years which is going to have a

hispanic majority a white minority and then a much much much smaller black minority so i just wonder if the hispanic majority is going to be that interested in emmett till yeah mean, that's, yeah, that's definitely a possibility. And the establishment is working hard on that to inculcate in the public schools that Emmett Till was the most important figure of the 20th century. They're working very hard to keep together the democratic coalition of the fringes by pointing at these horrible white men who are the enemy and who also have all the generational wealth and keep your eye on the prize. Eyes on the prize. Which is other people's money. Which is other people's money. Yeah, other people's money.

It's white people's home equity, basically, in stocks. Baby boomers are dying. They're leaving. They want to leave their property to their kids. This is a vast turnover of wealth. We need to get our hands on some of this. Another question might be, you know, how big is the African immigration going to be? If you look at the border, there's all sorts of people showing up from Mauritania, from all sorts of places. You know, in recent years, all over the world, fertility rates are plummeting,

except they're still way above reproduction rate in most of Africa. Right. And it's not, people know how to get out of Africa now. You get a smartphone, it gives you all the instructions and so forth. So, you know, why not move somewhere nicer? And, you know, so the country could well be, you know, I mean, Europe's getting much more African and probably, and America is too at this point. The descendants of American slaves are losing out on a huge fraction of the affirmative action spots it's now a three-generation Harvard family, both privileges. And not many positions at Harvard go to descendants of American slaves the way Michelle Obama

is clearly a highly legitimate descendant of American slaves and Barack, man, not at all. But yeah, we'll see that. I mean, American corporations, they want, if they have to meet DEI quotas, they tend to prefer immigrants for the jobs or people maybe who are raised by their white mothers or something like that.

So we'll see where this all leads to. Where does it all go politically? At Desjardins Insurance, we know that when you're a building contractor, your company's foundation needs to be strong. That's why our agents go the extra mile to understand your business and provide tailored solutions for all its unique needs. You put your heart into your company,

so we put our heart into making sure it's protected. Get insurance that's really big on care. Find an agent today at Desjardins.com slash business coverage. Well, actually, let me just take a step back. You became famous to the extent that you were famous in sort of a Samizdat kind of way, 2016 for calling that election with some accuracy based on looking at the demographics. Tell us about your predictions.

Yeah, I mean, that's a kind overstatement, but it's more like in 2000, I became the most outspoken critic of the new GOP orthodoxy promulgated by Karl Rove, George W. Bush's Svengali. And Rove's theory was that what we need, what the Republicans need is to push through amnesty and much easier immigration. And that's what the Latino voters or future Latino voters will love us for that, for bringing in fellow Latinos. And then they'll all switch to voting Republican, especially for the Bush family, whichps and Mexicans will carry on as the natural ruling class of an increasingly mestizo North America. And that wasn't too implausible, but I kept asking questions like, do Latinos really care and that much about immigration policy?

Are you sure they really want all their cousins from back home to be moving in with them? The one close Latino state is Florida. And do the Cubans in Florida really care about Mexicans, illegal alien Mexicans? I haven't noticed that. And I kept saying, you know, an awful lot of Latinos are in California and that's never going to go Republic again. And the others are in Texas in large numbers. And if that goes, if that's up for play, then the Republican Party is in really big trouble.

So wouldn't it make more sense looking at the Electoral College map to go, well, look, there's all these great lake states, the Rust Belt. And one of the things you see there is that the white working class isn't anywhere near as Republican as they are in the South. And they're actually really close in the electoral college, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. So why not do things for the white working class in the North, such as limiting immigration so that they can continue to be paid pretty well, and focus on them. And the Republican establishment kept going on with the Hispanic plan.

That was the big 2013 audit that convinced Marco Rubio that we need amnesty and so forth. But I kept saying, eh, you know, the way you win in the electoral college is these rust belt states around the Great Lakes. Did Rove not see that? I mean, for his loyalty to the Bush dynasty, I really think George P. Bush played a huge role in the Bush family's thinking that because Jeb had married into a Mexican family, that this gave the Bushes out of all the WASP dynasties in the United States the greatest chance to exploit the immigration wave from Latin America and to be the natural rulers of a Mexicanized population. I mean, George H.W. Bush had 10-year-old George P. Bush read the Declaration of Independence at the 1988 Republican Convention, which was a big deal because, because,

uh, the democratic candidate had been unenthusiastic about the pledge of allegiance and so forth. So, you know, uh, George HW was putting his, what he called his little Brown one up there on national television to the

LBO. Yeah. To get that started. So, um, so yeah, it made sense to rove um you know you got the sense that the more you listen to rove that maybe he wasn't the genius we were told he was yeah i mean you know yeah he won he won an election he won yeah he got he won a couple of elections for George W. Bush.

But, yeah, is he this genius? Nah. But, you know, the Republicans weren't, didn't, you know, didn't have a whole lot of people who crunched numbers and spreadsheets. So, in the first decade of this century, I spent a lot of time analyzing spreadsheets and so forth of election totals and going, you know, it looks like there's a different path here. And it really runs through the north central region where white working class people vote about 50-50 Republican and Democrat. And you can get that up to 55-60%. You know, you can win a lot of electoral votes. So did, did Trump read my 2000 article? Nah, but what else was he going to

do? That was, that was the one path to the presidency, you know, almost worked again in 2020 under pretty adverse circumstances. So will it work this time? I don't know. I've given up making predictions. I mean, people came along like Nate Silver, who just were so much more interested in predicting elections and worked so much harder at it that I was like, I don't have that gambling instinct that Nate does. And, you know, I'm going to retire from making predictions.

I'm not, I don't see myself as a great forecaster of the future. What I try to be is a historian of the present and notice things that are happening right now. So what is happening with Hispanic voters? In Texas, it definitely seemed like the racial reckoning of 2020 when the Democrats went basically nuts over blacks, alienated quite a few Texas Latino Democrats. In California, less clear. Does it even matter?

I mean, California is not much of a democracy at this point. It doesn't matter. It's helpful in Texas in that the Republican Republicans will basically lose the White House forever when Texas flips blue. That basically they have a pretty strong, loyal, steadfast Republican white population. A lot of the advantages of Texas are that they're not tied into guilt over the South. They were a Confederate state, but they don't care about that. They care about the Alamo. They've got this whole national narrative. And it helps keep them together. And they provide strong leadership for Hispanics.

And Hispanics are less, you know, domineering than people were talking about in the past. They kind of look around at their upper middle class neighbors and go, oh, okay, what do you do? Oh, you're a Republican. Okay. That sounds pretty cool. I might be a Republican too. California, you know, the upper middle class is Democratic.

So the Hispanics follow that lead. So I can't tell, you know, exactly where it'll go. How does Trump change that? I mean, it feels anecdotally like a lot of Latin American immigrants like Trump. Yeah. I mean, what Trump has done is he's taken the appeal of the Republican Party downscale compared to, say, Mitt Romney. Mitt did a pretty good job of holding on to the suburban upper middle class, the frequent

flyer population, corporate executives and things like that. They feel at one with him. You know, Trump is picking up working class people of all races. That's good. But, you know, it also is kind of republicans keep some competent uh higher brow people around you know that's another question what do you think i mean a big a big question is how much is this totally a Trump's personality? I mean, you know, 2020, 2024, it looked like Ron DeSantis had like studied Trump and said, okay, Trump's got some interesting new ideas and post Romney ideas. And I'm the competent, well-educated guy who reads all the fine print and I can implement some of these.

And that didn't seem like a bad pitch, but just didn't go over at all. As soon as the Democrats started arresting Trump for all sorts of charges, then that helped solve the Democratic nightmare that the Republicans were going to nominate a competent 40-something to run against their octogenarian incumbent. And so now we're stuck with a rerun ofun of so you think that's what it was it was the persecution of trump yeah it seemed like that blunted desantis and basically republicans went back to trump and went like well if the democrats are going to do that then we're going to stand by Trump. And arresting a major candidate is un-American. It's totally shameful in the United States history. And the Democrats didn't get in the way and go like, oh, let's not do that. They let local politicians, you know, kind of run amok like this New York case. And so they got the nominee they wanted, Donald Trump.

But now they're real worried that they're going to get the president they don't want, Donald Trump. So we shall see so you're the the reason that you've emerged from your cave in torabora uh coming to the sorry um is because you've got a book yeah it's a beautiful looking book um and it's collected uh, 1973 to 2023. You don't look that old, but it's called noticing. What does that mean? Yeah, I'll hold it up here.

I mean, it's a slogan that I took from George Orwell, who said that to see what's in front of one's nose takes a constant effort. And I'm trying to make it easier for people to notice the realities that they see around them and to understand that what they see with their own lying eyes in their daily life is also actually validated by the best of the social sciences. kind of tawdry, sublunary one where we make decisions about what neighborhoods our family should live in and what are good schools for the kids. And then this higher realm of the science. The world of data. Yeah, the world of data that proves that all those things you notice in your daily life can't possibly be true because then that would be a stereotype.

And my view is not all connected. There's just one reality out there. It goes from your personal anecdotes to what people might dismiss as anecdata to the data. And it all tells pretty much the same story. But why is it? I mean, we don't need to get into COVID, but I just noticed much the same story. So, but why is it, I mean, we don't need to get into COVID, but I just noticed from the very beginning, I never knew anyone.

I know people died of COVID. I never knew anyone who died of COVID. I did know someone who died from the vax and a number of other people who were injured pretty conclusively by the vax. That doesn't mean that more people were injured by the vax than died of COVID. I'm not saying that,

but then I started to ask around, do you know anyone who died of COVID? Do you know anyone? Like actually, have you had dinner with anyone who later died of COVID? Do you know anyone who was injured by the vax? And I don't think I've ever met a single person who didn't have the same answer I did. Whether that's reality or not, I still don't know. But I do know there's been such an effort to tell me that I'm crazy for noticing that. Yeah.

One thing I used to do was go through the list on Wikipedia of prominent people who have died of COVID. And the thing I noticed about it was that they were almost all people who were no longer in their primes. Oh, like I saw, like, oh, baseball pitcher, Hall of Famer Tom Seaver has died at age 74 of COVID. And then I looked up a little more about him and was like, well, you know, he probably would have had another good couple decades going to old-timers games and stuff like that. But then it turned out that he dropped out of public life the year before because he had dementia and Parkinson's. Yeah, just general.

He didn't have a good life ahead of him. And so I think that's one of the things that was going on was that COVID was really taking a toll among people who had passed their primes and were toward the last decade of their lives and weren't no longer in the public eye. And so that sort of helps explain the thesis that, yeah, there was a lot of COVID deaths. The antithesis that like, you know, it's not like anybody I was like met and I knew at work dropped dead of COVID. And then you get the synthesis of like, oh, yeah, it mostly killed off people who were probably close to retirement,

retired, in ill health from other things, and so on. So I think what's interesting is the point of social science, to the extent there was a point, was to bring the principles of science, of the scientific method, to bear on the world just right around us and to make it clear what we were actually seeing, I think. Yeah. And, but it seems like it's used at least over the past several years has been to do

the opposite, which is to obscure what we're actually seeing, living, experiencing, and tell us a story that's not true. Yeah. Yeah. Is that my imagination? No, it's, I mean, the issue is that so much data has piled up that we can now answer quite a few questions that were beyond our capability beforehand.

I mean, and the answers we keep getting are generally politically incorrect ones that were anticipated by the bad people, the Charles Murray's and James Q. Wilson's in the 20th century. So, for example, we have an enormous amount of data from DNA that tells us about our racial ancestry. And what have we discovered in that in this century? Did the conventional wisdom that race does not biologically exist be proven? No, of course not. You can call up ancestry.com or 23andMe and they'll tell you your race to three digits.

You know, they'll tell you, you know, if you're Jewish, they'll tell you, you know, you're 49.8% Ashkenazi. Other data is piling up. There's a Harvard economist named Raj Chetty, who's done phenomenal work talking government bureaucracies into letting him work with totally confidential data, like the tax returns of everybody in the country. And so he can do studies that nobody had ever had the chutzpah to dream before that they'd ever get the hands on the data. So for example, he gets, he tracked 21 million Americans across 30 years of their lives from, he looked at how much money their parents made in the 1990s. And then he looked at things like, were they in jail on census day, January, April 1st, 2010,

when they were about 30 years old. And so then he could plot out what are the odds of a man being in jail based on how poor Rich's parents were. And not surprisingly, guys who grew up poor go to jail a lot more. But he could also answer using data from the Census Bureau what the race was of all 21 million of his people. And he discovered, yeah, in general, blacks who had the exact same income as whites growing up as kids in the 90s,

in 2010 were in jail three to ten times more often than whites who were their exact peers in terms of family income. And this is like, wow, I never expected somebody to be able to come up with that. And it goes, yeah. So when people wonder why are blacks in jail more often, is it poverty? And poverty plays a role, but even without poverty, you take it all away. At the highest level, blacks, at the highest percentile blacks go to jail about 10 times as often as as the richest whites so we're able to answer all sorts of social science

questions these days but nobody likes the answers they're getting well it did seem like when we finally unraveled the human genome which was right around the time the bell curve came out-ish, that's when the whole conversation got shut down. Yeah. Maybe we had too much information? At a ceremony that Bill Clinton put on in the presidential rose garden in 2000 for the human genome project, they just sort of made progress decoding a single genome, which was mostly that of entrepreneur Craig Venter, who'd helped out enormously. And Craig got up and made a speech that was exactly what the zeitgeist wanted to hear. He said, we've looked at the human genome

or his human genome and we discovered the one thing you can't see in it is race. There's no difference whatsoever genetically between different genomes in terms of racial ancestry. Well, then within three, four, five years, the evidence was piling up. It was like, no, actually, you can tell exactly what the ancestry of people is. It became a sizable business very quickly. But as far as I can tell, a huge fraction of the population

remembers hearing that the science has proven that race doesn't exist genetically. And they've never rethought it since that 2000 speech by Venter standing next to Bill Clinton. So people want to believe some things. They want to believe that the science has proven all of this anti-racist dogmas that they get told. And they just sort of ignore that, no, it's actually moving in the other direction. It's actually moving in the other direction. It's time that we think realistically about what the data is telling us. And personally, I don't think it's the end of the world by any means. And I think we can all get along pretty well knowing the realities. But a lot of people are just terrified of them and basically want to lie about it. I mean, the way that previous civilizations held together in the face of knowledge of genetic and

racial differences, which are obviously real, but they weren't always at war with themselves. And one of the ways they did that was by believing in a religious doctrine that said, God created everybody. Therefore, despite whatever differences we have, we are all of equal value. Without that overlay, which we no longer have, how do you keep a society together in the face of these realities? Yeah. moving toward a sort of Nazi-type solution of having a scapegoat who unites everybody else by being the locus of evil, namely whites. Or, you know, in the way the democratic works, it's all sorts of circles within circles.

So you get more Pokemon points for being non-white. You get diversity points for being a woman. You get more diversity points if you were born a man, et cetera, et cetera. But yeah, unifying around a scapegoat population, that does not have a good track record. What happens in the end? maybe over the last year is people just objecting to it and pushing back and laughing at the conventional wisdom and scoffing at it and saying, you know, you guys are just making this up. It's not true. You're just saying it so you can get DEI money and easy sinecure jobs.

And, you know, we don't believe this. One thing ambitious people are doing, and you've written about this, is just denying being white. Yeah. and the flight from white what is that flight from white has a lot of different dimensions um it's people uh it's uh kids applying to college and remembering their grandmother was born in Buenos Aires before she went back to Ireland. In Argentina, the whitest country in the world? Yeah.

It's so stupid. But it's also happening at the government level, the census and so forth. So the Biden administration just recently announced that they're allowing Middle Easterners and North Africans to have their own racial category, M-E-N-A, so that they don't have the unprofitable, ignominious fate of having to check white or Caucasian. And this has a long tradition in the United States. If you go back to in the 1970s, South Asians were classified as white, but that really annoyed the South Asian businessmen because East Asian businessmen were getting all sorts of low interest loans from the SBA as a minority.

They were getting contracting preferences on government deals. And the South Asians said, well, hey, we just got off the airplane. We should be getting those deals too. And so the South Asian organizations got themselves declared to be Asian and grouped in with the Orientals and formed the new Asian group so they could get these good deals from the government that white people are not entitled to. And so that was an early example of flight from white. You see it with the Hispanics increasingly. Originally, when the Hispanic category was created, it was set up so Hispanics could get good deals from the government and get good affirmative action benefits, but without actually declaring themselves to be racially white, because a lot of them were kind of took pride in their kind of, they took racist pride in their blue-blooded

Spanish heritage and so forth. Well, there's an awful lot of that in Latin America. So they increased, so they could set up a separate ethnicity for Hispanics so you could get all the affirmative action benefits without actually admitting your shame of being white. But enough time has gone by that, you know, only your, you know, your Fuentes types anymore are like really publicly white racist from Latin America. And now it's more prestigious to declare yourself racially, I'm Hispanic, even though nobody's exactly sure what that means. What does it mean? I'm confused too, because would that include Brazil, which is of course a different language, it's not, right? And a different colonial power, but of course it different language it's not right and a different colonial power

and but of course it's a multi-racial country heavily black country as are as is cuba which is spanish i mean it's like i don't understand what what does the word mean uh yes is is brazil are brazilians and portuguese included in hispanics or are they Lusitanics? And according to a book I read by David Bern put down your Brazilian, except the Department of Transportation. They'll give you racial preferences for bidding on a highway overpass or something like that if you're Brazilian. They'll include them in the Hispanics. So it's I mean we live in a society that's increasingly mixed in terms of ancestry so we have more and more

people coming out who are a quarter this and a quarter that and there's lots of money on the table and as long as you're not, as long as you don't declare yourself white you've got all sorts of opportunities to to get freebies i wonder how long this can go on though before it just blows

up the country i mean is there any chance of getting back to an a race blind posture officially by the by the federal government i mean you can have whatever opinions you want on race i mean but the government which represents everybody has to treat American citizens equally as citizens. Is there any hope for that? I mean, the Supreme Court nominally outlawed affirmative action in colleges because Harvard was clearly discriminating against Asians. On the other hand, they left huge loopholes like, oh, well, yeah, you can write about your race in your essay and the admissions department can then go, oh, this kid is black, so we'll give him 50 extra Pokemon points on his application. I mean, one issue is that Asian students are pulling away so fast from everybody else in terms of things like SAT scores that the Asian black gaps are opening up so widely that if you go to total colorblind college admissions at the high end,

you end up with a campus with very, very few blacks qualifying to get in and a huge number of Asians. And places like Harvard really worry about whether they might turn out like Yogi Berra's former favorite restaurant that got so popular that nobody goes there anymore. So if Harvard becomes 56% Asian, are Asians going to consider Harvard cool? Or do Asians want to go to places that there's a lot of white people there? Nobody really knows. And, you know, what I don't know is whether the Asian rise,

the rise in Asian SAT scores is completely legitimate. And they just really have been getting so much smarter than everybody else. In the 21st century, the Asian test scores are pulling away from the field like Secretariat in the 1973 Belmont. Or, you know. Could there be other reasons? Yeah. Could it be? I mean, we know there's a lot of cheating in Asia itself on the SAT.

I don't think people bring their bad habits when they come here, do you? Yeah, I mean, nobody can possibly communicate across the Pacific Ocean. It's thousands of miles wide. How could anybody text message what was on the test? Or, you know, just the enormous amount of tiger mother prep that Asians brought with them from their 2000 year old tradition of taking tests to become mandarins and doing enormous amounts of test prep for years.

Or is it, or there's possible technical reasons that the people making the SAT have been criticized for one thing or another for discriminating against blacks and Latinos. So they keep doing things like, let's get rid of analogies. And that'll be fairer, but it winds up just benefiting the Asians most of all. Why? Oh, it was more of a, when they had analogies, it was harder to memorize apparently and test prep didn't work as well. It took a certain amount of creativity and kind of insight in the brain. But the University of California demanded getting rid of analogies about 20 years ago.

So the college board said, yeah, sure, you're our biggest customer. We'll do what you want. And things just sort of got worse after that. But there has been a noticeable rise, relative rise in Asian-Asian score. Yes, huge. Huge, really? Since the year 2000. And I think basically we should have, you know,

blue ribbon commission to look into like what's going on exactly with the SAT. You know, I mean, that's one reason that COVID came. Yeah, go ahead. I'm sorry, just before you say that, but does it still matter? I mean, is the trend of schools getting rid of the SAT requirement, is that real? Yeah, definitely it all happened during COVID and the racial reckoning at once. All the colleges went, well, they had to cancel some SAT tests because they had to be six feet apart and they couldn't fit in the classroom, et cetera. And then they all decided that due to the racial reckoning that they weren't going to

take SATs. And in fact, they're going to make it go totally test optional. And the University of California went further. They banned the applicants from submitting any kind of test score. And then what happened was that the colleges started noticing like, wow, these kids who are showing up that we let in, they're not very bright. They are not going to become computer science graduates of MIT. So MIT was the first one that went, ah, this was stupid. We're going back to demanding standardized tests.

And now Harvard's jumped on board. Everybody except the University of California at the elite level is moving in that direction because it was- So it is a measure of aptitude, actually. Yeah. And it's a very good measure of aptitude. It tells, you know aptitude, actually. Yeah. And it's a very good measure of aptitude.

It tells, you know, GPA, high school GPA is a great measure, but it's hard to compare schools. Some schools are hard in grades. Some are easy. Having this, having a test and having high school grades, you can put them together and they work pretty well. But because of the racial gaps that have been around forever and these things, it was decided during the racial reckoning that absolutely proves as Ibram X. Kendi has demonstrated by scientific logic that the only reason some races might be doing better than other races is because of the evil of whiteness. But of course, what it turns out is the Asians are doing much, much better. Because of the evil of whiteness? Because nobody really knows because nobody's that interested in studying it because it sounds like the kind of thing you

could get canceled for finding out and um just in general we have a lot of problems that have been swept under the rug in in recent years because they don't fit within the ideologies the woke ideologies um and just to think about them is kind of dangerous sounding. When the planes start crashing, will people start thinking about them? I hope so. I mean, my father worked for Lockheed

from the late 30s to the 1980s. And when one of his planes crashed, he'd spend two months on the site because when a plane hits the ground, it spreads out over a mile or so, picking up all the pieces of the plane so they could reassemble it and there's a jigsaw puzzle and figure out why it crashed and also picking up pieces of the pilots and the passengers and so forth. And over the last hundred years, people who were picked because they were smart and hardworking have done a whole lot of good at getting airplanes

so they don't crash very much anymore. Now, Boeing may be working on reversing a lot of that history. But yeah, we got a lot better at things by having systems to find people who were competent and work hard. And now the zeitgeist in the 21st century has been moving away from that. Will we see a lot of planes crashing? God, I hope not. But, you know, we need to make a 180 degree U-turn in terms of what we value, whether it's competence or diversity. And, you know, lately diversity has been winning and that's going to get people killed.

Is there a point? I mean, I'm asking these questions because South Africa, you know, tried this and the country is just continuously degraded for, well, 30 years this year to the point where there's no electricity in parts at times. And the murder rate is among the highest in the world. The rape rate is the highest in the world. But there's no deceleration that I can tell from afar, thousands of miles away, but I'm watching. And it's like, no, there's no second guessing. It's just like going to ride it right back to the Stone Age. Pretend it was never an advanced society. In our country, which is different from South Africa in a lot of ways, will there be a point like when the planes do crash and the air traffic controllers are just high or too dumb

or distracted don't care uh to keep the planes from crashing will there be a public demand like no no let's just hire viability from now on well what we've seen is um what what we saw with what we talked about earlier, homicides and car crashes, huge increases, and we've seen some pushback against that. But, you know, the establishment doesn't really want to talk about why that happened because it's embarrassing for them. On the other hand, the airplanes, you know, important people fly a lot more than unimportant people do. And that's one reason we have like pretty strict rules

about who can be a pilot. There was a plane crash in 2009. Congressmen take a lot of flights to get back to their home district. The one in Buffalo? Yeah. So they immediately passed some laws that made it, uh, made it harder to become a pilot.

And, uh, there hasn't been a fatal plane crash on the American airliner, uh, since then. And, you know, some of it is we just, we got really good pilots these days, in part because congressmen worry about stuff like that. Now are we, you know, but on the other hand, the Obama administration came along and basically sabotaged the system for hiring air traffic controllers. And Congress had set up a pretty good system for finding good people in the 90s.

But yeah, it turned out that it's like white men really like air traffic. They really like airplanes. It's like, you know, what have white men ever done with airplanes since the Wright brothers? So there were too many whites, so the Obama administration came up with a totally absurd corrupt test

to hire more black guys. And so what happens is then you get fewer people still make it through the training. So the training has been kept pretty legitimate. So you flunk out more people, which then means that you're under the number of air traffic controllers you expected. So you're making them work really long hours and they're getting more and more tired on the job and they're making

mistakes and stuff like that. And it tracks back to the Obama administration's DEI program for air traffic controllers. Can we avoid that? Yeah, we can. We just got to talk about it. And we just can't just shut down discussion by saying, are you saying that, you know, a stereotype that on average blacks wouldn't make as good air traffic controllers as whites? And the answer is, yeah, yeah, I'm saying that. So you expect to have a fewer percentage passing the test. And we can live with it. We live with it every day in sports that there are racial differences in performance on average. And nobody cares that much. And, you know, God bless them.

We love sports. and have a philosophy for things like jet travel that we consider it as important as the NFL and therefore we can't have racial quotas getting in the way. That doesn't seem outlandish. No, it doesn't. So last question, and I sort of began with this, but maybe you've... I just want to push a little more.

Why do you think that you're able to have these conversations and when you travel the country talking about your book, you're not attacked? And, you know, speaking of good signs, do you take that as a good sign that the country's becoming more open? Well, yeah, somebody suggested to me, it's like, well, Steve, you're in the best possible position. It's the fourth year of a Democratic president. Everybody's sick of Biden. But if Trump gets elected,

then there'll be an enormous effort on the part of the establishment to crack down on, you know, honest dissident voices that lead to horrible outcomes like Trump getting reelected. And if Biden wins, then they'll go, oh, we've got four more years and we really got to change things. So we never let Trump win. Trump's type people win again. Or it could be that enough people have noticed and have been empowered by changes like Elon Musk opening up Twitter so that I can have 125,000 followers. Just the accumulation of little changes like that, that, you know, these ideas that I've been propounding for 30 years and have people out there going, yeah, that sailor's ideas, they make sense. He's like the most reasonable guy in America. Maybe, you know, we've gone through a watershed and we're

beyond the mania of the racial reckoning and the great awokening uh knock on wood i hope so or or this period 10 years from now is described as the dark ages where steve saylor was actually in public yeah i mean face uncovered i mean what do you think? I mean, all right, let me ask you. Why me in particular that I became sort of the Lord Voldemort whose name cannot be mentioned when I'm just, you know, this kind of, to my mind, this very kind of public spirited benevolent guy who can see both sides of various problems well i've always thought that um i've always thought that you were particularly threatening because you're so obviously moderate by temperament you're just clearly not a hater. You can smell that on people instantly. You're very reasonable. And you use the language that the left would like to keep for itself, like of science, of reason, of data.

And you actually argue from that basis. And they'd like a monopoly on that. And so there's something really threatening about a guy who's like, no, actually, no, here are the numbers and doesn't raise his voice. That's way more threatening than some guy who's jumping up and down on cable news or, you know, sending

crazed tweets all day long. That person is, you know, his potential audience is much smaller than yours. Your potential audience is like, you know, sort of any open-minded person who'd like to solve a problem. That's always been my thought. Yeah. Yeah.

I hope so. But yeah, it's been, you know, a long, strange trip. Did it bother you when they called you a Nazi or white supremacist or when they threw these slurs at you yeah i mean i didn't it it seemed ridiculous uh but i it also didn't seem like i it also seemed like what they want to do is get you into a position where it's like, oh, I'm not one of those horrible people. Here's these six guys are the really horrible people and get me to condemn people who get to drive them out of publicity.

It's kind of the way, you know, you hear liberals talking about, well, the great thing about William F. Buckley was he, he cracked down on Pat Buchanan. All right. And I, I never met Mr. Buckley. You know, I worked for national review, wrote for national review in the nineties. But I did, I did meet Mr. Buchanan and, you know, Pat was a great guy. I mean, one of my last memories of my father before he died at 95 was Pat sent me one of his new books and he'd gone through and put post-it notes on every page where he quoted me or made a reference to some concept of mine.

So I showed it to my dad and he read it. He looked through it, all the things that Pat had with his own hand had said, all the nice things he'd said about me. And was like, wow, this is great. And, you know, that was like the last thing our last interaction before he died and i i thank pat buchanan for it and a lot of people have good stories about pat buchanan what a what a nice man yes absolutely you know so i mean it i i guess it could kind of go either way it depends on who's writing the history i mean i'd bet i'd bet money that um you know pat buchanan is described in 50 years when there's not a single living person who actually knew him um you know some sort of monster or hater or something like that wouldn't

you think yeah i mean i mean they say history is written by the winners. My impression is more history is written by historians who got paid by one side or the other, not necessarily the winners, to write the history. So, you know, for 100 years after the Civil War in the United States, the South, which was mostly pretty broke, but they could still scrape together enough money to pay historians to write the story of the lost cause. And so most of our history books were kind of biased in favor of the South. You know, what's, how we're going to remember, you know, our time, I don't know. But, you know, it could go it could change very much and you know maybe we'll have different heroes all of a sudden

you know that's maybe you and me will come out looking pretty good well I have trouble believing that but I admire you well me too but Steve Sower thank you very much thank you very much all right thank you tucker thanks

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