The Vergecast - Our hottest and coldest 2025 takes

Episode Date: December 8, 2024

Welcome to our two-part preview of the year to come! For the first installment, Nilay, David, and Wall Street Journal columnist Joanna Stern bring all the predictions for 2025 — their mildest, medium-est, and spiciest ideas about the year to come. Each host presents their take on TikTok bans, social platforms, smart homes, streaming services, and more, and the others get to decide whether they agree. Whoever gets the most right at the end of the year will win a big prize. (There's a points system for determining all that, but we'll figure that out later.) Email us at [e-mail] or call us at 866-VERGE11, we love hearing from you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Vergecast, the flagship podcast of extremely mild, very hot takes. I'm your friend David Pierce, and I am Christmas shopping. I have my whole list. I'm very organized this year. I have all the people that I need. I know roughly what I'm getting them. I had like a big self-brandstorm of ideas. But do you know what I discovered?

For me, at least, the single hardest thing to buy is like a pretty good $20 gift. The things for like Secret Santa parties or colleagues at work or. just this list of people in the world you need to get something, but you don't know them well enough to really get something like super personal. And also it might be weird if you did. And you don't want to spend a ton of money. I think this is why I end up both like giving and receiving a lot of Starbucks gift cards every year. It's just a pretty universally useful thing that people like. But I don't want to do that so much anymore. I just don't know what else to do. I'm sort of lost on this idea of like what is a good $20

relatively safe and universally liked gift to give? If you have the answer, I want to know. Please tell me, sincerely, you will make everything about my holiday planning for forever better and easier. So get at me. Anyway,

this episode is the first in a two-part series we're doing about 2025. It's the end of 2024. We're doing some looking back on this show, but we thought it would also be fun to spend some time looking forward. 2025 is going to be a big year in tech. We have a new administration coming into office that is going to change the way that we think about

a lot of politics and regulation and has a lot of feelings about big tech, frankly. We have this AI bubble slash hype cycle slash takeover of the world that is still ongoing. We have all kinds of questions about antitrust and big tech and what's going to happen to the venture capital world. There's just a lot going on. And it feels like in so many ways, 2025 is going to be maybe not a turning point, but a moment in certain ways.

So we figured we'd just look ahead and see what we could guess about what's coming. I grabbed Nelai Patel and the Wall Street Journal's Joanna Stern, two of my favorite people to speculate wildly about tech with. And we spent some time doing it. For this first episode, we each came with predictions. I gave them both the homework to come with three different predictions, ranked in order of spiciness. and we're just going to go around and talk about it. We invented a little game that if I'm honest, only half makes sense to me at this point,

but we're going to figure out as we go. It's going to be very fun. All that is coming up in just a second. But first, I guess I'm just buying Starbucks gift cards. This is life now. Merry Christmas, everybody. Have some Starbucks. This is the Vergecast.

We'll be right back. Support for the show comes from Retool. Too many companies run critical operations on duct taped spreadsheets, Slack workflows, and whatever else they could cobble together. Not because they want to, but because building internal tools means weeks of waiting on someone else's backlog. That's where Retool comes in.

Build custom internal tools just by describing what you need. Prompt something like, build me a revenue dashboard on our Salesforce data. And Retool actually builds it on your company's data and your cloud with enterprise security built in. Go to Retool.com slash Verchcast. We all need to retool how we build software. Welcome back. Eli Patel is here. Hello.

Joanna Stern. Hello. We're all in the studio. This is so excited. I'm here. I'm here. I'm here. I'm going to look at you or I'm going to look at both of you.

Yeah. We have spent like a lot of time in rooms together over the years and not in a very long time. This is very exciting. Okay. Here's how this is going to work. Okay. I have told both of you to come with three predictions for 2025 in increasing level of spiciness. Not necessarily like less likely to come.

true, but like, I want your victory lap for each one to be successively bigger. Does that make sense? Like, your third take should be the one that if you're right, you're going to tell a lot of people about how you were right. Oh, good. Okay. Okay. So we're going to go around.

We're going to talk about them. And then the way that this game plays is after each one of us gives a prediction, we're going to talk about it. The other two get to decide if they want to, like, co-sign that prediction. At the end of the year, you get a point if that prediction comes true. I guess you lose a point if it doesn't, because otherwise you should just sign on to all of them. So you can end up with negative points.

I think you have to be able to end up with negative points. Okay. So there should be some consequence for picking all of them. So I'm just making up the rules as we go here. So you lose a point. We'll do half points. I'm just kidding. You lose a point if you pick a prediction and it's wrong,

but you get a point if you pick a prediction and it's right. At the end of the year, this episode and the next episode next week, which we're going to do more 2025 stuff. We're going to total all the points. And whoever wins, the Vergecast is going to buy you the most cool gadget of 2025. What will it be? How much will it cost? Who knows?

But we're going to do this again. This is a roomful of people that does not need help acquiring. I was going to have already bought that. Can I just get the cash value? Yeah, you can have the cash value of this prize is one one hundredth of a cent. Well, it depends. All right. So this is what we're doing.

We're going to make it work. I'm excited about it. Joanna, you're the guest. You get to go first, but we're going to start small and build up to it. So what is your, what is your mildest prediction for 2025? I have two. Of course you do. Is that, what, I lose a point already for having two?

Okay, I lose a point. It's fine. I'm starting at negative. Negative. Perfect. Okay. It's 2026. At the end or at the end of 2025.

And I am still posting to 500 different social media accounts. Because social media. is still more fractured. Wait, I have a question, a clarifying question for your prediction. Do you mean Twitter-like social media accounts? Yes. Yes, and also TikTok. Because like a TikTok and an Instagram post are different.

Actually, this was another one in here. TikTok survives. So I'm still posting there. I actually don't post there that often, but maybe I should. Maybe I will. So TikTok survives, but also we've got blue sky. We've got threads. We have something else.

We've got Mastodon 3.0. we've got X, Instagram. I'm just saying that the Twitter likes. Facebook are one. Yeah, let's just keep it to the Twitter likes for this one. Yeah, I mean, mostly I'm talking about the Twitter likes. Yeah. Because there's no chance the short form video ones are going to consolidate.

Like Instagram Reels and TikTok and YouTube shorts. No, no, I'm just saying there's more. It's just more of them. There was, yes, there was. You're yelping for days. This is this, you know, there is years, you know, it was like 2022 where it was like the backlash to social media next year. where people are going to spend more time.

No, next year we're more on social media, and I am still posting every day to 500 different accounts. And my AI agent is also coming, but that my AI agent also, that's one of the things that has to do is keep posting. Do you think it's the same set that you're posting to now? There could be more. There's probably going to be more.

Okay. So you think the number goes up? I don't think the number goes down. And that is my prediction. Okay. That is just not going to get any better. I'm not signing on to this one. Oh, I 100% am.

You're not. I'm just, what goes away? Yeah, what wins? I think that the ability to hit one button and post to multiple Twitter likes will go up. And that will, you will experience that as going down. Does it make any sense? Yes, it does. But where am I going to look at all the replies?

Probably one of those clients because of the whole point of these, except for X. which I will say will probably stubbornly remain in like a walled garden. Everyone else is going to pick a way to interoperate. That's a nice solution. Even like your truth socials of the world. He does get the point. And it is true if like if the Fediverse wins, it counts as one. It's now one.

So that's the whole point. No, but that's the whole point because the Fediverse is many things, but it is one thing. You only have to post to one place and it posts everything to everywhere. That's the whole point of the Fediverse, right? Yeah. So what you're saying is like these things will come together in such a way that makes it, actually more but feel like less. Yeah.

And that will enable more to exist. Right. I think we're saying kind of the same thing, but you win. I don't even know how the game works, frankly. Sorry. But you win because you gave a solution to my problem. Well, see, I don't know what's going to happen. I just know that even, even both of our things are going to happen.

Truth Social is a Mastodon clone. It's actually very funny. They just copied the open source Mastodon code base. And the license of Mastodon is so restrictive that True Social has to publish its own source code. This is a real thing. And they obfuscate it. So now there's, like, other people who try to clear it up and explain what's going on.

It's very funny. All that's very funny. But the point is... I didn't know you were such a truth, social user. So... Well, I'm just keeping track of how you would build new social products. And the obvious way to do it is to take the open source projects. Right.

So if that's just the way that people begin to build new things, then they're going to interoperate because those things are already built to interoperate. I don't know that's going to play out. There's, there's like, you know, a greater than nothing chance to blue sky. It's like, oh, wait, everyone's on blue sky, and they just shut it down and they become a walled garden. I don't think that's going to happen.

That's not how they talk. I just don't know what's going to happen six months from now. But my belief, the reason I'm not signing out of this prediction is it just at the user level, for the Twitter likes, you'll push a button, post everywhere and collect all the replies in one place. Okay. I hope you're right. I kind of was bundling TikTok in there, too,

because I wanted one of them to be that, like, TikTok survives. So I was trying to get everything in one, that social media. is just still a mess and it's fractured and we're everywhere and we still have a million apps on our phones that we're opening. Yeah, and I'm just making the split between the things that look like Twitter and the video platforms. So the video platforms, I agree, will proliferate. Let's take TikTok out because we're going to come back to TikTok.

Yeah, sure. I have an odd feeling. We're going to come back to TikTok. I'm sure. Okay, so I'm in on that one with Joanna. Nelai's out and is wrong. Nealai, what's yours? You go first.

It's extremely mild. Okay. This is. We will still have computers. It's just like, I didn't put any seasoning on this taco. Do you know what I'm saying? I think when they do the Alexa AI, it will be okay. Okay.

That's pretty good. I was going to say, that's not as mild a take as it would have been six months ago. Well, here, let me explain why. So the stakes for Amazon are so low, right? They're not Google where it has to be good and they have to get it out in the future of all search depends on Gemini. They're not Apple where they're like, look at this glowing idiot and they have to fix it and they are advertising the products against it. They're just like, yeah, this thing that does timers is already in your house. What if it was better?

And they have infinity to solve that problem. Like there's no pressure to solve that problem. And I think Panos will wait. I think he's very comfortable waiting to solve that problem. And so that's that's it. Well, will he wait till after 2025? My whole prediction is it'll be okay. I'm not saying it'll launch.

Who knows? In this year? Huh? I think it'll in the next year. See, my second mild was going to be Apple intelligence gets better because it can't get any worse. Yeah, that's also pretty kind of in the exact same fan. Like thing that sucks sucks. Sucks slightly less.

No, no. See, I would counter yours. I think it will get way worse. I think Apple is going to feel the pressure of the other products. doing stuff and they are going to try to make it do a bunch more stuff and it can't do those things. As we have all already experienced. But you don't think Amazon's going to feel that pressure? No.

That's the same pressure is coming for Amazon. But they don't have a business based on that pressure. Right. Right. If one person switches from an iPhone to a pixel because Gem and I can do something, that's like they have a meeting. Like Tim Cook is like, everybody get in here. Like what is going on? Where are a robot?

Should we kill our CS? Yeah. It's right. There's a whole thing that happens. It's bad. Amazon is like, what are you going to do? You're going to get a Google Assistant. Like, you're not.

Like, you're lazy. You use it to play music and set timers. So that's the mildest prediction I have. They will wait. It could be wrong. It's a pretty mild prediction. I'm actually out on that one. I think if you had made this prediction in July or like this time last year, I would have

been with you. But now I feel like the longer it goes and every new headline that is like actually the new Alexa sucks. It does feel like the pressure is getting higher. Well, there isn't a new Alexa yet. The new Alexa that they announced over a year ago and haven't shipped. It's like it's, it's, we know what it is. They told us what it is. And then they didn't ship it. And it feels like, but it has to arrive. That's what I'm saying. It has the best shot. Maybe I'll revise my prediction. Of all of these, it has the best shot of being okay. It, it, that's probably true. I think I would agree. They have the most ability to wait. Yeah. I do think the new Alexa is going to get a lot.

of people fired. That's my other take. Well, that's my thing. I kind of want it to not be okay. It will be so funny if it's not okay. This is your... Can you imagine? Because they especially they have this giant install base of like regular people who use these things all the time. That's like the Apple Intelligence stuff. It's so funny when you see these things happen. Yeah, I'm actually, I'm with Neelai because, well, no, I'm not with you. I'm not with you. I'm not with you because I wanted to not be okay. You just want the headlines. Yeah, I think of the headlines.

You're imagining the video you're going to make about terrible Alexa, and you're like, it's much better if it sucks than if it's good. Yeah. We were home for Thanksgiving, and every time my mom set a timer in our Alexa, it played an audio clip from the movie The Wild Robot. And she had not seen this movie. Max and I have seen this movie. And so the thing would be like, processing, beep boop.

And then it would like set the timer. And my mom would be like, what's wrong with Alexa? Wait, Amazon just built that in as like a fun thing. Yeah, she's like every time you do. It's like processing, like it does the thing that the robot does in that movie. And Max is like losing her mind. She thinks it's the cutest thing in the world. And my mom is like, why is my Alexa so much stupid?

Wait, that's actually such a perfect example of why ambient computing is so impossible. Like, what a perfect low stakes example of like you have to build a thing that makes sense to everyone in the room. And that's so hard to do. Yeah, it was just like out of context. It made no sense except for the six-year-old. I love that movie. Wait, they rolled this out to everyone? They rolled it out to my mom.

That's not smart. She didn't turn it on on purpose. That's absolutely not smart. I know. Did he? Well, I mean, I thought it was delightful. In many ways, my mother's experience of computers is exactly the same as Max's experience of computers in that things happen until they stop happening and they ask me to fix them. Right.

And then I have to deduce what happened here. And I don't know that she ever went and turned on the wild robot. And ask her to talk to Alexa with me on the phone. today to see if she got this. They have it in the kitchen. They have, like... That's what it's for. And I'm telling you, they just have to wait.

People are going to keep using them set timers. And then one day, they're like, your Alexa's way smarter. And then everyone's going to fall in love with their kitchen timer. Okay, David, what's yours? All right, that's a good one. Joanne and I are both out. So we'll see.

I'm actually out. Joanna is just crossing our fingers in hoping. Yeah. Mine is that, I think this is, this gets milder by the day, I think. Cable TV is going to pretty much totally die in 20. 25. Like, the idea that you are going to have a cable box through which you get television and it's a bunch of linear channels and that's what you pay a lot of money for and mostly

watch is going to be essentially completely out of style. I have a number of follow-up questions. Okay. When you say pretty much die, there won't be any anymore? There will be some, but it'll be like the people who still get AOL discs in the which sustained A well for years. There are still people who do it, right? Like, it's still a thing that exists. But when you work today, well, there are people who are like, you know, this whole company runs some CDs in the mail. Oh, yeah.

And there are still, I'm sure, some, you know, hundreds of thousands or millions of people who pay for America online. They pay for their email address. Yeah. And so that, I think will continue more or less forever. But, like, it's going to die to the extent that it is no longer an interesting business to the companies that run it. Like the thing that Comcast is doing where it's spinning off all of its cable channels, everyone is going to do that. And they are going to just absolutely run away from cable channels. Okay. So second follow up question.

Yeah. YouTube TV and Fubo and Sling, you're over the top cable bundles. Are they included? They don't count in this. And I grant that this is, I'm like splitting hairs on that one, but they are meaningfully different products. So you're talking about like the X-Fibank. The box. The box is really the thing.

The guy that comes to your house. The cable that I buy from my internet provider, which is essentially what it is now, is gone. So third follow up question. You can really tell that I was just in my parents' house. They don't have spectrum boxes anymore. They have an insane spectrum app on their Apple TVs. Which does not, it's not great.

It's not. It has a grid and it has channels. Yeah. You know what I mean? It's like it's super there. They're paying spectrum for those channels. Right. And that's everything.

And then it is broadly the same as YouTube TV. She can watch it on her iPad wherever she is. So that's like a big win. Does that count? No. I can't explain why. Oh, wait, no, that counts as cable. I think that is the thing that is dying.

But that's not YouTube TV. Okay, let me, let me say this more. I can be more specific. What are you killing? I'm killing everything except YouTube TV and Hulu with Live TV. Okay. I'm killing all of it, except those two things. Okay.

I'm super out in this bridge. You're out on this one. I think I think inertia. Again, not dead. But completely uninteresting to everyone, including the people that run these services. My parents also have an illegal Indian IPTV box. It gets every channel for free, including locals in 4K. And that is-

They pay for the spectrum app on their iPads. No, they pay some guy on Venmo over the phone once a year. What? You should write a column with this. There's an entire economy of these things. Wow. What? Yeah.

Okay, that's fantastic. I was going to say this episode is... I think that counts. I think your parents are on my side. I was going to say... It's very entertaining. The title of this episode was going to be, Nelai goes to visit his parents.

No, I just blew... It's actually Nelai gets his parents arrested. Yeah. No, no, I just blew up like the entire Indian uncle economy here. This is what they talk about. They all know a guy. There are scams. It's fantastic.

It's great. All right. So, Nelai's out. I'm still not sure I understand. So I'm out. Yes, you do. She thinks traditional cable is going away, except for YouTube. Joanna just keeps getting more cable boxes.

By the way, this implies. No, I don't have cable boxes. And my parents don't have cable boxes. I'm in this. I'm just not talking about my parents as much as Eli, because I didn't feel like this was Joanna talks about. I love my parents. And they have a lot of the same commonality with your,

let's get our parents to get. Let's bring our parents to this podcast. Done. Done. No, thank you. But I guess I'm in. Okay. Great.

Love it. Joanna just picking it random. I am writing these down. Where? Yeah. And I have a doc. Every cable company except for YouTube TV is going out of business. Every cable, not going out of business.

Don't just irrelevant. Are they already irrelevant? Yeah, that's the thing. I think it's already happened. We've been doing this thing where they all invest in streaming and bank the money from cable. That's been happening for a very long time and everybody thought it was going to happen for a really long time. And then it isn't. And I think it's going to the speed of that death of the,

the cable money is going to increase so fast that by this time next year, it's going to be essentially a write-off for all of these companies, literal or figurative. I think a lot of it is still already. We're getting there fast. I think that's what we're... All right. Let's take a break,

and then we're going to get to our medium takes. Support for the show comes from Framer. Framer is an enterprise-grade, no-code website builder, used by teams at companies like Perplexity and Muro to move faster. With real-time collaboration and a robust CMS, with everything you need for great SEO, not to mention advanced analytics that include integrated A-B testing,

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Framer.com slash verge. Rules and restrictions may apply. All right. We're back. Spicy time. Let's flip the order. Not spiciest, just spicier. Nelai, you go first this time.

What's your most medium prediction for 2025? Medium. Yeah. Walmart by TikTok. Walmart? Walmart by TikTok. This is your medium take. Medium.

It's just like it's like zesty, but you're not. Yeah, I think there's only two possible. This is like the third question on hot ones level of spice is what we're talking about. Okay. Well, so he, like Donald Trump has said, won't shut it down. He, one of his big benefactors, a major investor in TikTok, but he can't overturn the law that Congress already passed that says TikTok has to go and apps source have to kick it out. So the number of options are very limited. And I don't think that he cares what happens.

And I don't think the people on TikTok actually care what happens. Right. So as long as TikTok continues to exist. As long as TikTok continues to exist. So there's this very natural out, which they should sell it. Right. Which is the thing the law is sort of designed to force into happening. And then Trump loves a deal, whether or not those deals are real, whether or not LCD factories actually get built. We love talking about deals. So then who are you going to sell to? Amazon is terrified of TikTok because it's basically QVC. But even then, I think you get some weird antitrust concerns.

The other big tech companies will basically say no. So you're kind of stuck with the other big store. That's all TikTok is, is a funnel into TikTok shop. Yeah. And hasn't the biggest sticking point been there? the algorithm. Yeah, it's like who controls it. Right.

And what makes you, what makes you think that by dance is going to say, okay, we're giving it all. We'll sell it all. What makes anyone think that people can perceive the quality of an algorithm? Like, that was a very important. That's sticky. Like, when TikTok was growing, this was important, right? Right.

Because it was finding you interest. It would like be really, really valuable. And now it's kind of like, you can make that thing 20% worse. And all the people are already on it. Yep. And really all you're trying to give them to do is shop. And we can watch Elon Musk just like dial the Twitter algorithm at will. And it doesn't seem to matter to that audience.

So I think there's less danger there than anyone thinks. It does feel anecdotally like the sort of perceived quality gap in like how well the platform knows me between Reels, shorts, and TikTok has gotten much smaller. Yeah, I agree. Like I think for so long it was like Reels. was old TikToks and shorts was just like over here doing something else that everyone hated. I feel like they're all the same thing now. Yeah, and a bunch of the creators have figured out to post the same stuff to the same platforms is like getting dinged.

This is my medium tick. I don't actually know what's going to happen. But if you're going to sell it, which seems like the most likely outcome, because otherwise they have to overturn a law that a bunch of Republican members of Congress passed, still hard. Why isn't it Amazon, though? I feel like it's Amazon. Because I think he's right on the antitrust stuff. Because I think meta and Google and Apple and Apple.

Apple all get mad about this. Yeah. And same for all of those other companies. What if it's Netflix? What if Netflix is just like, what's up short form video? We own TikTok now. Yeah, I can see it. I don't think Netflix super wants to be in that business.

Like, they don't want to be in a user-generated content. Netflix is like specifically pitting itself against all of those companies. Right. And also, they're not going to convert into Netflix subscriptions, which is the only thing they sell. Right. Walmart's like, here's some garbage. I saw a man on TikTok yesterday. trying to sell me a wall-mounted hose reel

as an innovation that I should buy for my family for Christmas. And I was like, my dude, my dad bought that shit at Menards in 1982. Like, what are we doing on this platform right now? And that's just where we are on TikTok. It is just a store. Yeah.

And that's funny. Like, there was a point where my whole entire feed was just hair products. I was like, I already have a hair iron. And you're like, my mom bought these at Menards. And they're like, My current hair iron I bought at Menars.

Google's Menards. Great deal. Because Menards are real things. What is Menars? Is this like a Midwest thing? I gotta stop hanging out with East Coasters. This is like the most deeply

Wisconsin store in the world. Is that your version of Home Depot? It's superior. It's your version of Lowe's? Corporate. Yeah. This is like I knew Minards when they first album.

I see. Does Minards have Taubo? Home Depot is the chain smokers. I want to. to be very clear about the comparison I'm making here. That works for me. I'm actually in on this one. I like it.

I think somebody is going to buy TikTok. And I feel like Walmart's as good as bad as any. So I'm in on this one. And I just believe TikTok survives. So. That's your medium take. No, that was my like one. That was my mild take would have been TikTok survives.

That was my mild take. It was like all the social media survives and we get more. Right. Sure. Walmart seems nice. All right. So you're in. We're all in.

Sure. I love it. All right, I'll go next. My medium prediction, which I actually think might be spicier than I realized, is that someone in 2025 is going to make an AI gadget that, like, actually kicks ass, and it's going to be a huge hit. This is your medium. This is my medium.

Compared to my mild of Alexa is okay. Yeah. Like, I don't know. It probably won't be the rabbit R2 or the humane AI pin to. But, like, maybe it's the next meta-ray-Ban smart glasses. that go like deep into more AI stuff. Maybe it's like AirPods, something. I don't know.

Somebody is going to make a gadget that is like explicitly about AI and it's going to be awesome and tons of people are going to want it. Okay. Actually, mine is similar to that, my medium take, but we should all vote on yours first.

No. No? It's not going to happen. What about this Sam-Alvin-Johnny I've thing? This is deeply related to one of them. I don't think the Johnny I think is coming out this year. I have like three spicy takes. And this is deeply related

to one of them. Okay. Well, then you're not going to give it to me. So what was your spicy take that you're... Oh, sure. Yeah. Well, I'll just do it now. Yeah.

This is a rebuttal. Yeah. Okay. That's a good order. AI conclusively proven to be a bubble. Ooh. Okay. It's Bluetooth.

It's just, it's Bluetooth. Next year, Bluetooth is going to be great. AI is Bluetooth. AI is Bluetooth. Everyone talks about it the same way. They make the same lofty predictions about what Bluetooth is going to do. When did they do that? All the time.

They're like, these headphones are going to rule. And then you're like, well, Apple had to hijack the entire Bluetooth protocol and make their own. Isn't it more like a different memory of Bluetooth? Isn't it more like AI's 5G? Yeah. In that case.

Sure. Whatever garbage wireless protocol you want to use. Whatever garbage wireless protocol you want to use. Go for it. But Bluetooth in particular was like an enabling technology that never panned out, right? That you would have an ecosystem of products all over, around you that were all Bluetooth together. The smart home would run on Bluetooth low energy. All

that stuff exists. It's there. Yeah, because that's where I would think you were going. You can go to the Bluetooth conference? You can go to the blue. Can you still? Yeah. The SIG? Do you remember? Do you remember what everybody was obsessed with the like retail Bluetooth where you would walk into a store

and it was like Bluetooth all the coupons on the year? Yeah. Yeah. Oh yeah. They still do that by the way just to track you. That is super happening. Every time you walk through the door of a store. in the mall. It's like, we found you again. Yeah. And then people wonder why it sounds, seems like everyone's listening to them. No, it's just because you existed with your phone and Bluetooth, which again, the core benefits

of Bluetooth pretty mild because Apple had to invent their own special Bluetooth to make AirPods work. Okay. I have a lot of feelings about what he's saying. Do you see what I'm saying? AI is on the exact same trajectory as Bluetooth, only 10,000 times more expensive. Okay. Okay. There's not one product that is bigger than chat GPP. that you can make with AI today. Okay, I'm not with you and I'm not with you. Okay, then where are you? I'd like that you just keep announcing this.

Yeah. Where are you that? That's my job here. No and no. Where? Byron was just a rebuttal. It's on a prediction. You did your prediction now.

Well, but if yours is true, mine can't be. Okay. Right? Because if, if we get to. That is your spicy. You chose your spicy. That's what you just. No, that's not your spicy.

That's a reject spicy that he's. Oh, so now you are getting two spices? No, no. That's not a prediction. No point. If AI is a bubble, I get no points, which is I'm giving that up now in order to rebut David, who says the humane pit is going to be good. Who kind of restaurant is this?

You got so. Nielas just sneaking dishes in here. This is my new restaurant called Menard. No, he's saying, he made his prediction. There would be a good AI gadget. And I'm saying that requires Bluetooth to be good. Yeah, but now you're going to get too spicy. I'm just explaining why I'm not signing us.

Yeah. Okay. I don't, I don't think we're going to get a great AI gadget that everyone buys. Okay. I'm going to, can I do my medium now? Sure, please. So you're both out on mine. I would like to respond to you.

Just pick that as your spicy because when we can come back to it. Okay, fine. I'll add that to my spicy list. Pretty spicy an appetizer. A Chili's too. Okay. My medium was that meta releases another pair of the smart, the Rayban smart glasses, but it has a display in it.

It's like a heads up display. There's been rumors of this. And I guess the like more spicy version of this is that meta continues to outpace Apple in the race for smart glasses. Oh, I'm extremely in on that one. I'm like every day I become more radicalized that meta did this right and Apple did this wrong. Like the story of 2024. I am writing a column about that right now and I believe that. I love the Raybans.

I think the path they are taking is better than the path Apple has been taking. Okay, I agree with Meta continues to up. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I don't think... I don't think they've answered any good. I sent my back. You probably don't have to use them. You have a big head.

Yeah, you don't know how to use them. That's not... Those are different ideas. You can't agree with him. What she said, big head. Yeah. You have a big head and you don't have to use them. You're dumb.

There's big head, tiny brain. I get it. I understand what you're saying. Yes. Look, all of those things might be true, but I use them. And this is some Apple stuff, right, where they won't let the photos automatically go to your phone.

If you have iOS, they will let you on Android. I think the camera's like just fine. The AI stuff is like extremely medium. I could take the rest of this podcast to show you videos of all of like the great moments I had with my kids and the RayBank. Well, you're wearing sunglasses. Yeah. Do you not wear sunglasses outside? So you're only outside.

So you have a inherently limiting product. You have a big head. but perfect eyes that are not bothered by the sun. Look, I listen to that Corey Hart song a lot when I was a teenager, and I stopped wearing sunglasses indoors and at night. I spend a lot of time outdoors. I go running, tubing, skiing. I'm very active.

Yeah. Very active. I don't do any of those things. That's why transitions are great. The real legacy of the Rayman smart glasses is making transition lenses. No, they did that entire. Those are not. Those are terrible.

Was that in the journal? They did the story about how transitions, the transition lens company was going to take off because of the meta rayban. Really? Oh, really? I thought it was a journal. Someone did a story about how transitions were in now. No, they're terrible. Because of the rayvans.

And I got the clear ones with the transitions. And I was like, these are still pretty bad. They're really bad. And then I box the things up in something. They definitely still do the thing where you go inside and you still have sunglasses for 10 minutes. There was a kid in my high school that had transition lenses. And you know that is not. And hopefully he's not a purgecast listener.

And every time I see them on the rebands, I think of him. And I'm like, I look like this kid. And he was cool and handsome and is now in the NFL, right? Yeah, I'm hoping he doesn't listen to the version. I just want to be clear. With the prediction. It could have been you. You could have been the one he broke up for him.

I agree with the prediction that meta remains ahead in this category, only because I think Apple will not launch something that is as good as the raybans, by which I mean, They will have to make something better because the raybans are just medium. And Apple is a camera company, as Snap wants to say, they are. But yes, I agree. I think that's true. I think Apple's likely working on this.

And they haven't gotten to the best place. It was the Wall Street Journal, the headline. These glasses were once a style joke and now they're for cool guys. It's like, no, you're just a bunch of old guys. Oh, no, that was in 2024. Yes. Oh, no, that's wrong. Right when the meta came out.

That's wrong. Thanks to significant technological upgrades, transition lenses are supposedly suave. Are these once dorky two and ones now the ultimate glasses? No. Okay. Did a transition lens write this? It's very good. It's very good.

Vogue has a story from a- Vogue has a story called transition lenses are now my entire personality. Someone is, they're like a big transition is. on the case. The transition lens, I don't know how, like, there's,

and I'm still trying to do some reporting on this. If you work at meta, I want to get in touch. They're working on the heads-up display in a pair of raybans. I think they'll probably be sunglasses, but maybe, well, they'll probably have to use transition lenses.

The display thing is going to be a big swing, too, because if that sucks, it actually, it not only doesn't add more appeal, it actually kills a bunch of appeal. Because the thing that's nice about ones now is they are mostly just sunglasses. Totally. I think they have to do something in between what they've been showing with

Orion and what they've been doing with the smart glasses. And that is very basic information in your line of eye. And so... Just show me a text message. Right. That's it. And that's where I think there's going to be AI potential. I don't think that's a killer. I don't think people buy them because they have AI. Okay. So I'm with you a little bit on the like these gadgets are going to get better. And I've said repeatedly, the meta-glasses are the best AI gadget you can get because they're not only about AI. So, okay, wait, for you, we're going to move on for this. But the raybans, it feels like it's the three things are camera, mic slash speaker, AI. Rank those three things for you personally. Camera, AI, audio. Interesting. So for me, it's audio first by a mile. And then camera and then

AI. Yeah. Like, I love them as like a pair of headphones or for like making. calls and stuff like and but I've found other people are like why would I just want to shout into the air when I have yeah I can just wear AirPods it'll be fine uh Neil I sent his back so you don't get you don't think that this is going to run into the I use it to play music and set timers problem no I think it might but there are there are worse things like smart speakers we're supposed to do all these things and it's music and timers and you're like oh and then this category kind of just died Yeah, and now it's on my face.

Yeah. I don't know if there's a worse thing than the, we spend a lot of money to set timers problem. Fair. And, I mean, Amazon has been trying to find places to put Alexa on your body for a long time and has not found it. Yeah. So, all right, we're all in on the specific one of meta is going to continue to outpace Apple on glasses. But only because Apple's not going to launch anything. That's my caveat.

There aren't. No, this is 2025. So the other bet that you're making inherently in this is that Apple isn't going to launch another thing in 2025. A face thing. I think Apple has, they've done face computers. They're like, okay, we put one computer on your face. Everyone breathe. Let's figure out what our next face computer is going to be.

And then we're going to take it from there. Maybe they drop the price. Of the Vision Pro. Yeah. Yeah. I'm saying, I don't think they're going to launch another face computer next year. Okay. And so, by definitionally, I will say that.

Yeah. All right. I'm into it. All right. We're going to take one more break and then we're going to do spicy takes. We'll be right back. Support for the show. show comes from Grammarly. You don't need reminding that the world moves fast. But work today

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work. In a world of generic AI, you don't have to sound like everyone else. With Gramerly, you never will. Download Gramerly for free at Grammarly.com. That's Gramerly. All right. We're back. Spicy takes. These are the ones, again, there should be a chance that this comes true. But if it does come true, you're not going to shut up about it. Yep. Okay. Good? Yeah. All right. I guess I get to go first this time. Uh, my spicy take for 2025 is that everyone is going to give up on matter and bail on the smart home.

And we're just going to get to the end of the year. And we're going to be going to. And we're going to have like individual smart gadgets and that'll be fine. But this idea of like the, the big, beautiful interconnected smart home is going to cease to be interesting to almost everybody. Okay. Joanna, do you want to respond to this as someone who just fixed your garage after weeks of effort? Oh, yeah. We should talk about this. Oh, not the garage. Can we just do, let's just do a one minute, Joanna interlude on the garage because the people do want to know. Okay. Can we get a music? Yeah. Just assume there's music playing now. Okay. It's happy. like it needs to be a happy track

like a little bit like whimsical like the six flags the song I will pick the music at a later time you tell you stupid I'm producing I'm producing I'm producing right now it happened my garage now opens I can't say it because if I do

my phone will open my garage at home but when I say hey blank open the garage it happens. This is after many weeks of texts to Neli

who responded three minutes exactly after because he scheduled them. This is after many weeks of people responding on threads. Thank you to all your listeners. We got a lot of feedback

on the garage door. Yes, and I would like to apologize. You idiot, this is simple to this is the hardest problem in the history of the universe. To outright conspiracy theories about cred, Figueredi's garage.

Yes. Well, I believe those now. I've come to, I understand this landscape better than anybody. Yes. Maybe not as well as you. And it is a very hard problem to solve. So those people that call me an idiot, you are actually an idiot. But I just thank you to the listeners.

I did it, though. I did it. What did you have to do? Oh, we can't. It's too long. It's longer than a minute. Just explain the little adapter that they say. Okay.

I got the Miros. Meros. What do you pronounce it? I always say Miros. Miros. Okay, I got the Miros adapter. I get up on a ladder. I sent Nelai a picture. I was wearing my meta-ray bands for both music and for just taking photos and video of it. Therapy. It was using the comm app. Then we should get them as a sponsor. Okay. I get up there. I get everything all set. Plug in into the sensor, put the sensor on the door. This is a whole complicated kind of wiring, not that. And it doesn't work. And it turns out because my lift. is a newer liftmaster from 2018. It is using some proprietary protocol to talk to the door opener on the wall, and it will not work. They have DRM'd the garage door button, and they have labeled it a security feature.

It's very good. They've deramed the hardwired garage door button. I guess there was a way I could have known this earlier, but I didn't go through all the support forums to know because my learn button, on my liftmaster is yellow, and it turns out if you have the yellow button, you cannot use this. Then you have a DRM. But Meros, the geniuses at Miroz,

who I've not gotten in touch with, but you are great people, great people. They made a little adapter, which is really just the opener, like the opener you'd put in your, like, car. It's a hacked opener that connects to the Miros. And so I get it. They sent it to me in the mail.

And one week, again, thank you to the people at Muros. Please sponsor this podcast. I just love them. Apparently. They don't have enough money. They're making one hacked garage to reopen at time. One a day for me. Anyway, they send this to me.

I set it up and it works perfectly now. Can I explain what's happening? I sent Joanna like a paragraph, excited paragraph of nerd speak. So they're like, okay, we can't push the hardwired button because it's DRM'd. Yes. But we can take a regular garage door opener that is DRM compatible with this, and we'll just put a wire in the actual button of that garage door opener. Oh, wow.

So that when you tell Siri to open the thing, our thing will push the button on the garage door opener. So there's just a wire coming out of a garage door opener. Because that is crazy. Can you imagine Craig Federigi knowing any of this information when he's like, the future of AI is my smart home. This is validating my entire prediction. I told you I wouldn't do this. And I did not want to go down this route.

I just wanted to thank everyone and tell them about my success. She's very proud of herself. I'm very proud of myself. I now have. Can you explain the one other bug that you had to explain to me, which is perfect. It didn't work right away and why? Well, that was with the, oh, no, that was with that. It's very good.

Okay. So I go away. I don't even know why I was. I was in L.A. And I set everything up and I thought it's working perfectly. but yet the garage door keeps opening and closing randomly. And my wife is texting me saying, who is opening and closing the garage door? And I'm like, not me.

It should be working. It turns out when I pressed the learn button, it started picking up some signal from someone around the neighborhood. So whenever they opened their garage, it opened my garage, which almost led to divorce. So I had to get a garage guy who then came to the house. It's very good song perfect. And now it all works perfect. All because you can't be bothered to push the button when you pull into the driver.

But you know what? The amount, like, this is where we need some music. The amount of happiness and true pride I feel now when I pull out of my garage and say, hey, Siri, open the garage door is, I may have never felt it before. And then 15 minutes later, it just starts raining and closing it opening on its own. That hasn't happened in at least. least two weeks. I'm thrilled for you.

We really, the smart home is getting to the point of humanoid robots to stand in your garage and push buttons. That's, by way, this is doorbot. Yes. You could have just put a door bot on the actual garage door button. But just back to what you're saying, this is why I don't think, I mean, switchbot, not doorbot. I don't think matter disappears.

I think we actually see these tech companies double down on it. I think they're all going to start talking about how AI is going to be great for the smart home and we're going to hear it with that Alexa announcement. just like, all these things, and this is the dream and our robots and the, and the house is connected. And none of it is actually really material to real people because they have old shit and they have different standards and there's DRM in the freaking button on the wall. And it doesn't work. And I think we're going to hear from Apple this year because they're apparently working on this home tablet. And I think they're going to push matter and they're going to

say they have to push matter. They have no choice but to push matter. Right. And no, no, not everyone get an ecosystem of these devices. And a lot of these devices don't even have matter. Yeah. Anyway. You just think they're going to give up. You think? I don't know that they're going to.

I just think everyone is going to stop caring in every, like. I think they did stop caring. Maybe. But I, like, even the companies themselves who have been making these long, elaborate bets that eventually the smart home is going to become a thing that is like mainstream useful, I think everybody's just going to start walking away from that next year. It's because it's just not going to happen. Yeah.

I mean, when you get a new house. Switch is kick ass. It's probably fine. We've probably solved light switches. I don't know that we need to worry about them anymore. No, enough of the light switches in our house are smart and do things. Yeah. Just all on their own. That actually once you get used to it, you're like, oh, this rules. Yeah. Right. Like, there's one level up. We're like, oh, this is great. My Rube Goldberg machine works really well. It's like a perfectly viable. But it's not a Rube Goldberg machine. It's, they're just, I just bought some Lutron Kassetas and put them in the wall. And now, when the sun sets are... Will they sponsor this podcast?

I don't know. Well, they have so much money that they own a custom slice of RF spectrum, which is why their products work the best. It's a real thing. But I don't know if they want to spend the money on us. You know, like, those don't even go on sale on sale. Yeah, because they have their own RF spectrum and they have the best product. Yeah. What are you going to do?

This is a real thing. They bought their own slice of RF spectrum that Brendan Carr, Trump's new commissioner in the FCC, is going to turn over to Elon Musk. When you interview him, I want you to ask about Lutron Kiske. Brendan, if you're listening, and I know you are, come on the show. Yeah. I'll ask you about Lou Gehron. We'd love to have you.

Tell me how your garage door works. You own a house? I do. You own a house. Yeah. Okay, I was going to say, like, if this is the year 2025 that David buys a house. Actually, a good prediction here, like ancillary prediction to yours is no one will come up with a smart home idea that compels you, David Pierce, owner of the most garbage TV in America to do any

smart home thing. Yeah, I love that. Right. That's the, because like I have a whole smart home. It's just doing stuff all the time. And I'm slowly trying to be Nelai. Like, he's my, he's my mentor of the smart home. Nelai has never once described a use case and an amount of work to get to that use case that has ever made sense to me.

I just described the garage to you and it is perfect. It's super not good enough. It is so good. What do you mean? I just sat next to you. My wife texted me and. said, why is the garage door opening and closing by itself? But then our wives can talk to each other.

Not a workable solution to my house. You don't want to build a relationship on that. That's not the foundation of relationship that's good for anyone's marriage. It's bad times all the way around. All right. So you're both out on mine. This is great. Joanna.

I do believe it's going to be a big topic next year. So that's. I hope so. I mean, to be clear, David's prediction is everyone walks away from matter. That's your specific prediction. I'm out of it. Yeah, I don't think they're out. They're all in on it.

Yeah, they can't. They have nothing else to do. I wish. I mean, I don't wish. I don't, anyway. Okay, my spicy one, the Mac gets a touchscreen. We've done this like every year.

Every time we've done predictions together, someone has done this. I know. And we'll go, I think I'm trying to find the verge cast transcripts of the time I predicted and I can't find it. But I believe I said by the end of 2024. I think the last time we did this, we set timelines and we were all wrong.

We were. Deeter was on the podcast. Yeah. And, but I, I, I think we are coming towards that time. One day we will get there. And I, I think, is it just a Mac as you currently imagine it, but it's a touchscreen? Or does it change more meaningfully than that? They'll have to do something.

What do they do? I don't know. Does it run iPad apps? It already runs iPads. But like, like, does it just get the iPad App Store natively? Hmm. Now I think they just keep it that way. Okay. I'm just looking at these touch targets being like, eh, I don't really want to poke my menu bar.

Yeah, I don't think they do it until I know why they're doing it. I want to scroll. I don't know that they even know why they make the iPad. Right. Like the iPad as an application environment, they're not like, here's why. They're just like, well, that keeps happening. And I don't think they're going to add cost and complexity of the Mac unless they have like a great reason to do it. and they seem to be selling enough Macs.

I'm walking this all the way back. Because I thought the last time we did this, I thought that they had reached a point with the Mac and the iPad where bringing them closer together was the only choice. And they have not only resisted that, they pulled them further apart.

To the point where everyone just like turn this iPad into a Mac. I think Apple Silicon changed that. Like I think if Apple hadn't solved, like laptop processing, it would have been different and the Macs would have started to look more like the iPads and vice versa.

But now, like, the Mac lineup is easily the best it's ever been. Yeah. And is so compelling to so many people. Like, yeah, I tend to agree. Years ago would have thought that eventually the MacBook and the iPad in particular would eventually be the same product.

I don't think that anymore. I, the spicy follow-up, whatever that is, a dip. condomint hot sauce if if you could turn your Mac into an iPad and gain touchscreen support

or you could turn your iPad into a Mac and lose touchscreen support which one would you which one would you beg I can take my Mac well it's the first option so you have your Mac sitting right here and I can push a button and be like now this is an iPad

and you get a touchscreen and I can take the screen off no whatever it's just that they can run iPad apps but it has a touchscreen it's an iPad and the other one is you got an iPad in a keyboard case and you're like, boom, hit a button. It runs MacOS, but the touchscreen stops working. It's that. I guess that.

See what I'm saying? I want a dockable iPad much more than I want a touch Mac. Yeah. Yeah. And there's a bunch of stuff you have to do. Like, it would have to essentially like run the two operating systems side by side. No, I'm saying, I'm making this hardcore. Okay.

You push the button. This is now runs iPadOS. Yeah. With a touchscreen. With a touchscreen. It's a Mac. But then when you run Mac, Mac OS, it disables the touchscreen.

No, it doesn't run Mac OS. I'm saying this just becomes an iPad. Or you could take your iPad and you can run MacOS and it disables the touchscreen. Oh, it's definitely an iPad with MacOS. See what I'm saying? And I think this is just the end of the argument, I think, for a long time because they don't know why I'm any, they don't know why any of these products have screens. Except for the iPhone. I know why the iPhone has a touchscreen.

They have not yet solved a problem with why the iPad. So maybe I'm changing mine to that. the iPad can run MacOS. Yeah, that's the only rational answer. But that to me it seems to the same thing. Mac gets a touchscreen. Still MacOS getting a touchscreen. I'll give you both as one prediction.

That one of those two things will happen. That the Mac, I mean, it's really, it's like the Venn diagram of the Mac and the iPad smash into each other. I think they have figured out they can sell a lot of both. They don't have to solve this problem. And there's no pressure on them to solve the problem. Until there's some sort of Windows tablet or Android tablet, that provides an ounce of competition to the iPad.

And I know there are Windows tablets and people like them and the surface exist and that's a whole thing. They're not competition to the iPad. They're competition to the MacBook. To the Mac, yeah. Until there's one sliver of competition for the things that people use iPads for,

they are just going to stay exactly the way they are. I don't agree. Yeah. I was my other spicy one. You can talk yourself out of your own connection. No, no, my other, no, I really want that to have and that's why it's spicy and that's why it's there. But my other spicy was going to be that Tim Cook

steps down and then the Mac gets the touchscreen. Ooh, Timco can't step down. I don't think that's president. I know. It's like, it's really unrealistic. He's got to call him every day and be like, I need you to not do these tariffs. No, I think they just brought him. Do you understand what I'm saying, Donald, that this time you cannot do tariffs.

You like your iPhone, right? I can turn that off. No tariffs. And he's just got to do that every single day. All right. Last but at least. Nilai, what is your spiciest prediction? This is wild.

This is wild. Hit me with it. Google breaks itself up. Oh. Oh. Okay. They're just like, you know what? This is not worth it anymore.

We're just going to, we're going to spin off our own companies. Okay. This is the opposite of merger media, which is a thing big companies do to create shareholder value. Sure. When they're out of ideas. I think Google is just going to look at the marketplace and say that we're under a lot of regulatory pressure. And you know what? If we just spun off YouTube, just put it over.

there signed a big lucrative AI training data deal for Google AI and let this thing go be cable, the future of cable television and compete with TikTok and whatever. And that'll go public and the stock will go up and Google's stock will go up and everyone's stock will go up. And that's all anybody cares about. You can make the argument today absent the antitrust pressure. And you get to take YouTube away from the antitrust pressure and the regulatory pressure. Because now it's just YouTube. Does that solve Google's antitrust pressure? I have no idea. This is my spicy take. Okay. But like does that solve the scrutiny of Chrome and the ad? Right. So all that's noise. Right. It doesn't solve those problems. It just takes YouTube away from them.

Right. And it lets Google say we've made ourselves smaller and less powerful because now the second most powerful search engine on the internet doesn't belong to us anymore. Yeah. Over here it's YouTube. And we can, you know, the fact that we all work together and we're friends and sometimes at college are they on the phone. And who knows what messaging app we're using to communicate because we want. Not only delete all of our records, we have too many messaging apps for you didn't see. That's the spiciest take is Google solves this problem the way that big conglomerates solve this problem. What if Google does all of its secret messaging just on aloe? Because they know no one is paying attention. Like no lawyer would ever think to like subpoena the aloe messages. So that's just where Google is now. They're just like one of their, this is why they've had so many.

Right. This is all right. Before chat or meet? No, it was after. Allo was with Duo. They launched Allo and Duo together. And Allo was the first one that was like, we're going to put AI inside of your chats. So when you say, do you want to go to the movies?

It's like, oh, would you like to buy movie tickets? And that was a super good idea that everyone liked. And it went really well for Google. That was 10 years ago. Ages ago. Yeah. The number of Dieter Bone, we have sorted out Google's messaging strategy stories that we bring. here it is here's the plan by Dieter Rohn. None of them came to pass.

That's my spiciest take. That's pretty good. I'm out on that one. Yeah, no one should set up on this take. I think if you had said... But to your point, if I'm right, you'll never hear the end of this. Yeah, they have to make you the CEO of YouTube.

If you're right now, officially, they have to do it. Yeah. I think if you had said, Google breaks up in 2025. I might have thought long and hard about signing on. But Google does it of its own volition. That's why it's,

I love it. Someone breaks up Google. Yeah, fine. It's, we're headed that way. Google itself is like, you know what, this is really hard. Yeah. It's just YouTube.

You go have fun. Create some shareholder value. It's for the good of the people. Yeah. All right. This is great stuff. All right, let me review.

Then we're going to get out of here. Joanna's predictions. Her mild prediction is that a year from now, we're all still going to be posting to a million social accounts. I'm in on that, Nelai's out. Your medium take is that meta is going to continue to outpace Apple on glasses.

Neil and I are both in. And your spicy one is that the touchscreen Mac and the iPad with MacOS, some smashing together thing is going to happen there. Neil and I are both out. I hope to, the one I most hope I'm wrong about is that one, because I want that to happen so bad.

If that happens, and we're on an event together, I will stand up and cheer. I deservedly so. That will be a good victory lap. Like, imagine if Apple had made a television, how insufferable Gene Munster would have been. Like, that's what I want for you. I have never clapped at an Apple event. I believe the only, sorry, I would take that back. I believe I might have clapped when they announced multiple timers. And I've never, ever clapped at an Apple event other than that.

But I will clap. But then you have to say out loud. To be clear, I'm clapping for myself. Yeah. Journalism. I love it. All right. Needize predictions.

The mild prediction, Alexa is going to be fine. Yeah. I even put the ellipsis in here. It's going to be fine. Fine. That's fine. I'm out and Joanna's out. That's rough.

I think it's probably true, but I'm hoping, I'm betting against. The medium take is Walmart is going to buy TikTok. Strangely, Joanna and I are both in on this. I love it. And the spicy take is that Google breaks itself up. We are not in. I'm giving you all versions of breakups, even though you specified YouTube.

I think. Oh, any, any... Google breaks itself up in any meaningful way is spicy enough that I'm giving you the whole take.

As long as it's by its own volition. Correct. Okay. That's nice. And Joanna and I are both out. But that means I will take any little thing. Yep. Right?

Because Google is also alphabet. That's right. So if Waymo... Right. If they're... Yeah. Like Waymo... Waymo's not part of Google.

It's part of alphabet. And I don't think that's ridiculous. You have to decide. No, I'm still out and I'll still give it to you. Any alphabet company, but not one of the stupid moonshots that loses billions of dollars. I'll give you Waymo. That's basically the only other one I'm willing to give you. My predictions are, my mild prediction is that cable TV is going to pretty much totally die.

Neely's out. Joanna's in. I still don't know what that means. I'm in if the most generous reading is like we stop talking about it. If I just make it, the cable box business is dead and boring, would you be into it? Yeah, because it's already true. We should all just take the point today. It's not, though.

It's not true. All right. It's boring already, but it's not dead. And I think it got boring faster than anybody expected, and I think it's going to get dead faster than anybody expects. I think our minority investor Comcast requires me to tell you that the Xfinity X1 box is cool. Also, Disclosure, Neely produced a Netflix show. Yeah, something. Subscribe to The Verge.

I don't know. It's pretty good. All right. Do you want in on this one? This is your last chance. Yeah, I'll take it. Keep in mind that I'm deciding. Yeah, I know.

You're going to give yourself this point somehow, and it's like fine. All right. Neil is A. My medium take is that someone is going to make an AI gadget that actually kicks ass. You're both out. And my spicy take is that the industry and the world are going to going to collectively give up on matter.

And you're both out. Out. Super out. Love it. All right. I think a thing that I don't understand is how many points have we all potentially signed up for? Who's to say? I got 12 months to figure out the answer to that question.

What do you win if you win? I'm saying if Google breaks itself up, I win. Whatever that is. If I call that one right and Google does a voluntary spin of you. Yeah, he had so many spicy takes. But if, yeah, he had so many spicy takes. And then he also had that spite. I think that should be disqualified.

Joanna's so mad at how much you got to talk. I've already. The AI means nothing and AI is a failure of what was your other one? Yeah, bubble pops. The bubble pops? No. That's not on the list. No, Nealai doesn't get to have that one.

Yeah. Okay, good. That's just. We should delete it from the podcast. Yeah, Bluetooth. That's too spicy for this podcast. It's funny because Bluetooth, like, never had a bubble that popped. Everyone was just kind of like, yeah, it's just not happening.

I think a lot of people think Bluetooth happened. Do you find one person? who thinks Bluetooth happened. Like, in the way that people thought it would happen. Right. Bluetooth happened in the sense that it's here and you use it. Right. Sometimes it works in your car, and some people have one of those U.E.

Boom speakers. But, like, and that's it. Is there a $100 billion dollar Bluetooth startup out there? Like, probably not. If that is you, please email me. Like, Bluetooth was at the point where they're, like, meaningful Bluetooth security threats. Yeah.

Remember, there's, like, blue snobled. Yeah, I do. There was a whole CES where it was really just... Bluetooth stuff. Bluetooth stuff. The Happy Fork. Yep. Bluetooth.

It just didn't happen. Yeah, I mean, but some of it really did happen. I once sat through an entire press event where they told me that they would combine Bluetooth and Wi-Fi so that you would use Bluetooth to pair to a gadget that would then provision for Wi-Fi. And you would get the best of both worlds. Look at Apple's whole strategy. And maybe that sort of worked. And maybe it exists. It did not.

I know that you want to say like, okay, yeah. has Apple added their things to Bluetooth to make it better, clearly. But AirPods? Right. They made up a forked Bluetooth and layered it on top of Bluetooth and no one else gets to use it. But without Bluetooth. And their entire, their entire explanation for why they have locked down the, what's it? Now they're on like the H2 chip.

Yep. Is because Bluetooth isn't good enough. But still, there's Bluetooth in there. Apple would love to get rid of Bluetooth and just connect the Apple devices to the Apple headfights. The Apple Watch. I mean, these are massive. businesses that Bluetooth were, I get what you said. Apple made a set of proprietary extensions to Bluetooth in order to make those things happen.

There's a Bluetooth underpinning. All right. And maybe one day there'll be an AI underpinning. I'm giving us all. AI is Bluetooth is a take. We're all in. AI is not Bluetooth. Oh, Joanna's out.

The bubble will pop on AI is actually the thing. And I'm just making a comparison. I'm saying, okay, AI is Bluetooth. We're all in. In the specific comparison. So we're not putting that in. Everybody gets points. And all that's going to happen is we're going to be here next year.

We're going to talk about this take. And someone's going to say, well, it'll be better next year, which is all they ever said about Bluetooth. That's the only comparison that makes me. Okay. Okay. I like it. All right. We're going to do one more of these next week.

We have some other fun 2025 prediction stuff to do. But for now, we're done. Thank you all. Appreciate you guys doing this with me. I already won. All right. That's it for the Vergecast today. Thank you to Nilai and Joanna for playing this very silly game with me.

And thank you, as always, for listening. There's lots more on frankly all of the stuff we've been making predictions about all over the verge.com. I'll put some links in the show notes as many as I can think of, but keep it locked on the website. Clearly 2025 is going to be a year. We have a subscription now. Fun time to subscribe to the verge. There's just a lot that is coming. And as always, check out the homepage. It's free. It's awesome. Have a peek. And if you've thoughts, questions, feelings, or other predictions for 2025 you'd like to get off your chest. You can always email us at Vergecast at the Verge. or call the hotline 866, Verge11.

We truly love hearing from you. Thank you to everybody who's called in with questions for the meta hotline that's running on Tuesday. Tons of fun stuff. That's a really fun episode. Really enjoyed doing that. And if you have more questions, keep them coming. We have a backlog of really, really fun ones we have plans to do stuff with.

Hit me up. I'm ready for it. This show is produced by Liam James, Willpore, and Eric Gomez. Vergecast is Verge production and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. We'll be back on Tuesday with the meta episode that we've been talking about for a while. back to our regularly scheduled programming for a couple of weeks before the end of the year. We'll see you then. Rock and roll.