The Vergecast - Streaming winners & losers of 2022: Netflix, HBO Max, Disney Plus, and more

Episode Date: December 14, 2022

The Verge's Alex Cranz, Nilay Patel, and Charles Pulliam-Moore focus on the big streaming services — Netflix, HBO Max, Hulu, Disney Plus, Amazon Prime, Peacock, Paramount Plus — and discuss which are the winners and losers are for this year. Email us at [e-mail] or call the hotline at 866-VERGE11, we'd love to hear from you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You're listening to The Vergecast, the flagship podcast of the Go-90s scale of Doom Streaming Services. I'm your friend Alex Cranz, and you notice that David's not here because this is the first episode of the Wednesday show that I'm taking over while David is out caring for that absolutely adorable baby he and his wife just had. We're going to have a really fun time over the next few weeks, and we're going to have a bunch of Verge staff on the show to talk about all kinds of stuff. And I will try not to have an E-Inc segment. every week, but I will not promise to not have an EEE segment every week. Anyway, this episode is a really fun one because we're going to be talking about all the big streaming services. I mean, Netflix, HBO Max, Hulu, Disney Plus, Peacock, Paramount Plus, Amazon Prime, all of them. And we're going to think about who are the winners and who are

the losers. And to do this, I, of course, have brought in our Verge editor-in-chief, Nilai Patel, and our film and TV reporter Charles Pulliam Moore to go through each and every one of these streaming companies and discuss how they were handled in 2022. Buckle in for this one. I made people talk to me about this for over an hour. It's a lot of fun, but I'm going to go walk my dog now, so I'll see you guys in a minute.

Support for the show comes from Retool. Too many companies run critical operations on duct taped spreadsheets, Slack workflows, and whatever else they could cobble together. Not because they want to, but because building internal tools means weeks of waiting on someone else's backlog. That's where Retool comes in.

Build custom internal tools just by describing what you need. Proms something like, build me a revenue dashboard on our Salesforce data. And Retool actually builds it on your company's data in your cloud with enterprise security built in. Go to retool.com

slash Verchcast. We all need to retool how we build software. What's up y'all? I'm Skyler Diggins, seven-time WMBA All-Star, Olympic gold medalist, and mom. And I'm Cassidy Hubbard, host and reporter for nearly 20 years, covering the biggest names and stories in sports and mom. And this is Am Mom, a community for athletes, game changers, and moms of all kinds.

Dropping May 14th. Tap in with us. All right, and we're back. I got Neely here, who is the streaming expert at the verge. Is that true? I mean, we can say it is. No one's here to stop us. I have Charles Pullin more here, who is our other streaming expert at the verge.

I think he should stop us from saying that I'm the expert. I think Charles is the expert. I think we all have a little bit of expertise when it comes to the different platform. Fair enough. And we're going to talk about the winners and losers of streaming this year. I know I have my opinions. I know Charles has his opinions. Some of them are very wrong.

Oh, wow. Charles, I saw your notes here about Paramount Plus, and I had to like, had to take a moment. It's fine. I'm very glad that you were watching Paramount Plus and keeping them afloat. with your Star Trek love, well done, well done. That's all me. Well, there's also the cowboy people. We got it.

Well, we'll get there. We'll get there. We'll get there. Let's not get too far ahead. But so we're going to be going through the winners and losers. And first step, we're going to talk about the biggest winner, the biggest loser, just the biggest, right? Which is Netflix. Yeah.

That like, you know, the OG player in this space who taught everybody that streaming was a real business that everyone needed to get very serious about. And, you know, Netflix has just always been the bellwether that everyone has looked to. And in this year of everyone sort of realizing that burning cash, you can't just do it indefinitely, like Netflix sort of being the one who taught everyone that that's how you run this business had to pump the brakes and be like, you guys, since these subscriber rates have sort of flattened and slowed down, perhaps we need to cap our spending. Yeah, because they spent a lot of money this year. They spent, you know, $17 billion, which is both like an ungodly amount of money, but it's also sort of like that is how Netflix. is able to be Netflix, right? It's like, let's throw cash at this problem

as much as we possibly can, so much so that you can't possibly believe it. And that leads to, you know, the content gets made, subscribers come on. But eventually, you do sort of have to look at the bottom line. Netflix in particular has realized, like, look, there's a certain degree to it shooting yourself in the foot this way can be beneficial

if you're looking sort of down the road. But at some point, you do have to talk to yourself in rather realistic terms. Like, my foot isn't going to keep re-reviewed. growing back, you guys. We've got to sort of staunch the bleeding. And everyone else who is sort of followed on Netflix's footsteps, um, looking at Netflix's example has recognized like, oh, if we do everything the Netflix does, we will also sort of be in the same position, but not necessarily have that same market share. So, you know, since Netflix has sort of put out that call, rather put out

that message to its investors, we are capping our spending. All of the other streamers have been like, we are also going to start capping our spending. We're also going to start trying to get more value out of our wares by just, you know, squeezing them a little bit tighter. Let's talk about the, like, the capping, the spending thing there, because Netflix capped it spending. And I feel like everybody in the industry was kind of like, this is the death of Netflix. Like, like, it just went from like zero to everything's ruined really, really quickly. There's like a thing here that we should just for one second highlight, which is this is the first time Netflix has faced real competition.

right so that crazy curve where they were burning cash they're burning money they were doing anything to get on people's TVs they were chasing what you might call a monopoly position for sure and they achieved that position right if you walked up to a random person and had to guess what they subscribed to Netflix would be the best bet right every single case everyone has a Netflix subscription right that is a very difficult thing to achieve and Netflix more or less achieved it they're like out of people to get to subscribe to Netflix. Right. And it's like we,

we can joke about it, but like Netflix, it's funny during to do, to do, whenever, when Netflix starts talking about its presence, like globally and sort of like all the inroads that it's made in other countries, it's often easy to sort of gloss over like Netflix is that girl.

Like Netflix is the one who is sort of in this space launching international hits. Like Disney Plus, Amazon Prime, they don't have like a squid game, which is to say they don't have programming that is not explicitly Western focus that still manages to take over everything and sort of be in everyone's minds and sort of own that mind share. And so while the $17 billion spend is while it has also paid off for them in a way that is undeniable, that being said, this is the cost that comes with sort of being the trendsetters,

sort of laying the blueprint for everyone else. It makes it easier for everyone else to sort of catch up to you, not necessarily get to your same level, but sort of recreate your success to a certain extent, enough so that you can become the kind of competition that scares Netflix into, not necessarily scares, but gooses them into thinking, well, we have to think a little bit more strategically about how we're going to maintain our position and sort of stay the, like, keep the competition out from being able to really steal our lunch. Yeah, two things. One, I feel it is, though, I have to disclose that I'm the EP of a Netflix show called Pete Treve. Which you go watching Netflix. It's great. Um,

And also our company makes shows for every one of these streaming platforms. So go watch all the Vox Media shows in every platform. That's great. Two, I think the really interesting thing about that competition moment is Netflix, even just last week, Reed Hastings was at the dealbook conference that I was at. And he was like, our competition is everything. It's video games. It's the other streamers.

It's TikTok. It's YouTube. They think about their opportunity is, you know, the hours in the day that you are watching something, that you're looking at a screen. they've kind of solved this problem by just throwing money at it. If you push the button on your remote, Netflix is going to show you oceans of content. I think when we go talk about the other streamers,

they have solved this problem by saying, here's the best thing you should watch. Right. That, I think, is where the real end of Netflix stuff came from, right? The strategy is shifted, and now Netflix is going to spend less money, which means they're going to have to make harder decisions what they spend money on,

which just changes the dynamic for everybody. Yeah, like we've all had that experience. where you turn on Netflix and it's like, I want to watch something. What am I going to watch? And you're like, well, there's so much. There's so much. And their UI does, none of the U-Wids are particularly good about discovery, but nothing about Netflix in particular lends itself to giving you a sense of what you're

going to be in for. And, you know, we live in the age of decision paralysis, which I'd be very curious to hear what kind of internal conversations Netflix has had about like, we need to make it easier for people to sort of want to try our things out without necessarily thinking that they need to have the, you know, I'd go watch a show from beginning to end without any kind of interruption. I think it's really telling that we've gotten into a space where all of the streamers like to brag about hours watched for something like that, sort of become the default metric that they use to tell the success of a particular thing.

A metric that means nothing to regular people, right? Like, oh, like X million people watched X hours of show. Like, that means nothing to me as a regular watcher who it tries to stay away from like that super fan investment like rah-rah, like, let's cheer for the multi-billion dollar company. But I do think that it is reflective of what you were saying earlier, that these companies are starting to be a little bit more transparent about what success looks like to them internally, right? It isn't necessarily, obviously they all love it when they get nominated for awards, right?

Like I'm sure Hulu was overjoyed that the dropout, not swept, but really sort of. Cleaned up. Yeah, cleaned up. But at the end of the day, like, what they're really concerned about is, is this a part of your, Is this a part of your daily consumption habit? Like, are you, do you wake up and just reflexively turn the television on, put something on and then just let it go for the rest of the day? Because that's kind of sort of what they all want.

No, because after three episodes, it'll ask if you're still watching. Netflix did fine, right? Are they the winner? Are they the loser? Like, who knows? But the underlying dynamic that got expressed that Netflix got hit by hardest is you have to make a case for people to spend money on you every month. And if people aren't hitting that button on their remote every day or every couple of days,

because you're just going to give them something, then your other option is to make hits. And hits are just way harder. And where Netflix has had hits is in stuff that has generated a lot of controversy, right? The Chappelle specials. Or stuff that has gone viral on other platforms for reasons no one could predict. Like we are in the middle of the weird goth resurgence around Wednesday, which is a former guyliner boy.

It's very confusing to me all around. Like everyone is just like cosplaying my teens right now. I don't quite understand it. But it's weird, right? Netflix doesn't have that marketing prowess that the HBO's of the world do. They don't create cultural moments because they just release everything as a binge. So then Wednesday gets completely decontextualized into a Lady Gaga remix video, which is great. Like I'm not knocking it at all.

It just that wasn't the. plan, right? It just happened to them. That all speaks to how like Netflix has sort of just become terrestrial TV for a lot of people, even though we are paying a premium for it. I think it's more akin to terrestrial TV than to a basic cable, like the basic cable that we grew up with, in that it is sort of the expectation that you're going to have a Netflix subscription just so that you can participate in, you know, the discourse about a Wednesday, the discourse. I'm thinking way back to like the early hits the Netflix had like the Orange is the New Black. It was just sort of the thing that you talked about. But this is the downside to being the big fish in the pond, right? Eventually,

people stop thinking about you as that young upstart that's doing bold, ambitious. I'm thinking, again, of orange and new black things, versus this sort of stayed safe bets that draw their success from controversy like Chappelle. Tetzarando is coming out and being like, we're going to keep green lighting Chappelle specials until people stop watching them. Says to me, like, oh, like, that's not that's not the position of an executive who is confident in the studio's ability to create, to create up its, on its own exactly. It really, that to me does say like, well, that's safe. It doesn't telegraph strength to me. We've seen that too with how Netflix has been very eager to, like, watch Disney go on this IP binging and just buy up all the different IPs.

And Paramount's done it and HBO's done it and Amazon Prime has done it. Everybody's done it. And Netflix kind of got left out in the cold. And so they're like, okay, we need IP too. And so like Adam's family, Wednesday would not be a success probably if it didn't have that Adam's family IP attached to it. If it was just about a weird goth girl, going to her school with her werewolf friends. Look, the world needs more original IP about young got teens and their werewolf friends, just in general.

And I don't know why we got away from it. And I think we should go back. But like you've seen it even happen on Netflix itself. It's done similar shows. that just haven't had that same reach. And because there was that, that IP connection. We've seen it with The Witcher. That's like their big IP bend.

Their only success in creating their own IP has really been stranger things into an extent squid game, right? Well, no, so Bridgeton is huge. People loved Ozark. But Bridgerton was based on a very successful series of romance novels that have been out for years. And I guess the other one you said Ozark, that's a fair. That's a fair one. In the grand scheme of like winners in those just Netflix is five. Right? Like Netflix, all of the calls like, oh, Netflix is doomed. Like everyone, everyone likes that narrative because it's fun, right? In the same way that it's fun that Netflix has a show, two shows, excuse me, about Blockbuster. Everyone gets like a little bit of a thrill out of like, oh, is Netflix finally going to fall off the throne? Maybe. But like this isn't the year for it exactly. Like if and when we do see them really sort of take a tumble, it's not probably going to be like a very dramatic and immediate thing. It is just going to be a slow winnowing of the market share that comes, you know, as a fall.

of the competition just being stronger and smarter. Okay. So if we had to say Netflix was a winner or loser. No, we got to do this first cast style. Go 90 scale of Doom streaming services. Okay. Zero is alive. Okay.

And 90 is dead. In honor of Go 90, the streaming service from Verizon, which, honestly, Verizon was like, here's what you want to do. You want a YouTube where you join a gang. That was basically their pitch for it, bundled on your mid-range Android phone. So Zero is alive. 90 is dead. I'm putting Netflix, like Netflix was flatly.

zero, right? Yeah. For a long time. I'll put them at like five. I'm going to put them at three unless they cancel a show I'm really into right now, at which case, 90. If Netflix cancels a show that a fan base is into, they're like 90. Immediately. Immediately.

Doom saying is out of control. My argument for five is like they've never faced competition like this, and they are reorienting the company. They're rolling out ads. They're doing all this stuff that is unproven. So there's an element of risk to Netflix that is not exactly. existed before, which takes them to five. All right.

I'm at five, asterix, 90, if they cancel warrior or not. Charles, where are you? I think there are like a two. I think I'm trying to, weirdly, my mind immediately went to like, at what point in House of the Dragon, right? At what point, like, King Viseris is like decrepitness is Netflix right now? And I think it's still like early in the season, right?

Like, there's just maybe like a little pockmark, just one or two. Oh, I see. Wow. So in a long enough timeline, every streaming service. Oh, in a long enough timeline, just face falling off, right? Fair enough. By the way, this thing about the scale is really funny, because if I had said 10 first, all of you would have both said five, but I said five. So you're like two and three. Two and three. This is like, this is how you mess with the numbers. I'm just letting you know. You do anchoring. It's like a real thing. All right, but five. That's what we're saying for Netflix. Five, two, three. Okay. Let's talk about one that is like probably closer to the 90 side, right? now, HBO Max. Speaking of Game of Thrones. Slash Discovery. You have it here. So Charles worked a lot on the rundown for this episode. Charles, you have the two kind of bundled together.

So like in my mind, HBO Max and Discovery Plus are still two separate entities. Like I get that internally, Warner Brothers Discovery is like these two things are soon to be merged and be called Max. And if and when, like when I can download. Death. That just stop it. Everybody stop it. When I can download Max the app from the app store onto my TV and onto my phone,

then I will officially be like, all right, the merger is done. I'm just saying there are people in this world named Max, including one that I am very responsible for. And I think they're all mad. Congratulations on Max's new app. That's going to be great. They had a year, right? Like David Zazlov finally, they finished the merger of the companies, not obviously of the

apps. They finished the merger. David Zazlov came on. He originally did that kind of tour. He went and talked to a lot of execs, a lot of people in the industry and was like, hey, I'm just a cool guy here to make some cool content. Emphasis on content. Yeah. And then things got a little messy.

Yeah. I mean, if you call like the raising of villages and the salting of earth messy, sure. You know, there were just lots of big fires everywhere with HBO this year. I mean, I think we all sort of remember the famous like, oh, like things are just disappearing from HBO Max. right. What's going on? Oh, that's not going to come out. It's done, but we're not going to release it because it would be prudent for us to just take the tax right off rather than selly HBO Max's good name by putting out this, you know, this mediocre. Apparently, we'll never know. But I mean, like when people look back on 2022 for HBO Max and Discovery, it will be the year that David Zaslov

came in and started the cleanup house under the auspices of getting the company on track to be more financially solvent, right? More into. the business of putting out movies for theatrical releases that then have pretty sizable theatrical windows before they eventually make the jump to the streaming services months after. And a lot of that was course correction from 2021, right? Those halcyon days of the pandemic where people could not, right, when people were not going in the movie theaters, right? And the studios were verclent and unsure what to do.

And the old guard was like, put it all in Max. Well, they were not necessarily old. We can't talk about HBO Max and what is happening to it now without talking about the fact that AT&T bought this whole company. Okay. Had no idea what to do with it. Their entire theory of buying this company was we're going to preload Warner Brothers content on AT&T phones. Like that's what they wanted to do. Like if you bought an Android phone from AT&T, they were going to preload it with apps that delivered like bite-sized versions of Game of Thrones to you.

And that's why you would buy AT&T phones over Verizon phones. I cannot even believe that I am saying this. Like hundreds, thousands of richly paid executives and consultants came up with this plan that just saying out loud to the Vergecast audience plainly, I know what people are doing. They're crashing their cars and jumping off bridges because it's so stupid. But this was their plan was that they would differentiate AT&T's network by having Warner Brothers content. which is a plan that has failed every single fucking time anyone has ever tried it. Do you know what else?

AOL tried to do that with Warner Brothers content. Does anyone know who owns AOL now? Like, no. It's a disaster. And so they spent all this money. They hired Jason Kilar to come in and be the head of the studio. And he wasn't like, I'm afraid of what's happening with pandemic audiences. He said, I'm pulling the lever on streaming as hard as I can using the opportunity

the pandemic. Screw you theater. Screw you Hollywood. A-less talent that has back-end deals to get profit from theater revenue. All that stuff. He just said, screw it. The pandemic is an excuse. And basically broke the studio.

Whatever Zaz is doing now, it seems like he is being very harsh. I don't disagree. I just like, what he was handed, what he bought was a disaster of AT&T's making. And like, I don't think that there's a way out of that disaster

without the perception of it. of harshness. So like I'm looking at this from the perspective of a consumer, right? Like for a hot second there, HBO Max was sort of the awkward late to the game sibling. Everyone's like, well, what is HBO Max supposed to be exactly? What is my interest in this outside of watching things that are just going to be on HBO. And for a while, HBO Max sort of was coming into its own as having having interesting content, having rather interesting original content and interesting original series as well as like the established HBO brand. But then they were getting, all of these, you know, blockbuster movies immediately on to the platform. And from the consumer

perspective, like, that was the dream, right? It was like, look, I will pay a premium. I will pay, like, a premium premium, even if we weren't necessarily dealing with the pandemic, if the studios are like, hey, welcome to our app, pay us anywhere between $30 to $60 to watch the movie that is in the theater right now, watch it here on the app. People have been wanting something like that for the longest time. And HBO Max, you know, through all of these, you know, all of the, the situation was able to give people something like that. And because all of these platforms, not just the platforms, but the companies that own them are constantly paying attention to one another, for a few months, there was the dream. Like, is this going to be the direction that they all go in? Are they all going to start prioritizing streaming in this way because they understand that that's where eyeballs are?

Were we going to be on the precipice of a sea change where people just weren't flocking it? theaters, the way that they used to, which is why you saw, you know, last year, the year before, this really big push for the sentimental appeals to theater going. Like, hey, you guys, movies are where we fall in love and where we discover ourselves. And it's like, funny, look, I know you want to sell this popcorn, but you got to calm down with all that because it's doing a lot. It's doing a lot. But now, you know, you know, Zazol comes in.

And he is a businessman, right? You are right. He's looking at this like, yeah, we're not going to be. solvent if we keep moving like this. And so as plan, as best as we can tell from looking from the outside in, has really just been to cut spend. To cut spend in the long term, in the short term, that looks like, all right, we need to free up space on the platform for cheaper content that we are going to eventually start producing for Macs in the future. You can have your feelings about whether or not the clearing of house could have been done in a more judicious and quiet.

in a less sort of like bombastic kind of way. Yeah. They were pulling stuff off. A lot of animated shows, I know, got pulled with the creators not even knowing about it. And suddenly there's like just zero way to watch their shows they worked on. And that's why, not that I'm coming out as a defender of Zazlov, but like when you look at everything that he's done on paper, you can see what he's doing. He's trying to save money.

The issue and the reason that people have begun to look at Zazlov and WBD and such a a dim light is just because of his methodology, right? Just because there does seem to be a lack of care and attention being paid to the fact that, you know, the content is the work of artists and creatives, some of whom this is their life's work, right? And it is disheartening to see your baby sort of just like thrown off the ship in the name of, you know, in the bottom line. Buried in the vault, never to be seen lest he has to pay the IRS back. The winnowing of Max also came, again, not to bring. it back to award season, but it came at a year where HBO had a really strong showing,

you know, throughout award season, you know, Succession, Hacks, Euphoria, The White Lotus, they were nominated and they were winning these awards. And it, you know, did sort of play into this idea like, oh, HBO Max, you know, to what you were saying earlier, HBO Max isn't just a streaming platform, it's a streaming platform that's putting out really good content, things that people like, things that fans like, critics like, it's something that's actually worth the investment of your time and energy. And then to see, the platform just having an axe taken to it, it really sort of felt like, why would you do this? Like, why would you do it? Especially since you've gotten the platform in such a healthy, good,

productive space at this point. But there's two parts of that, which I think are fascinating. One, if you had to ask me what I would cut down to right now, I would pick HBO Max. Right. Same. What is most consistently winning an hour of my evening? It's HBO Max. Right. It just has some of the most interesting stuff on it. If I had to pick two, it would be HBO Max at Netflix for Sure. But if you had to just ask me, like, you get one, and probably pick HBO max, just because I could mine the archive of movies and be happy for a long time. Right. But that's HBO. I think what got the whole platform kind of sideways is they added in all this other stuff, including the noise of Warner in D.C. And HBO itself, the thing that makes really good TV shows, just had to, like, carry the weight of the, like, they're not cutting a bunch of HBO content. They're cutting a bunch of Warner Brothers, movies and animated series stuff that like makes no sense.

And now they're going to like smash it together with Max and add a bunch of reality TV stuff and like TLC stuff. Well, they've already started adding it, right? Like we saw all, you know, they bragged about how Chip and Joanne Gaines's new special about rebuilding a castle in Waco, Texas was one of the most watch things on HBO Max this year. Like they're already testing it and pushing that stuff. One thing that is true about this entire conversation is that there is no accounting for taste.

And so, like, you can say whatever you want and then you look at the most popular lists and it's always just the craziest garbage is the most popular. Like, the Big Bang Theory was the most popular show in America for years running. And Zazlov is very transparent. He's like, look, you can have your critical darlings and you can have you little Emmys. But so long as the kids are tuning into Chip and go Joanna Games, we're going to be greenlighting more of it. And while we can have our feelings about that, like a business perspective, that is a smart kind of move. Now, I would also be curious to hear from anyone within HBO or rather from WVD, like, how much does the prestige perception matter to the company, right? Like, arguably, part of HBO Max's success was the fact that it was able to ride the HBO brand and sort of, like, HBO as a brand is one of these like intergenerational names that really just sort of consistently means quality to people with.

in like the entertainment space. And to see the direction that the company is turning towards with Max, I wonder whether or not, like obviously we've heard rumbling. It's like, oh, there will be like an HBO hub within Max where you can go for a four-year White Lotus. But is the company concerned about people just seeing Max as like the least imaginably named of the service. It was a great name for a little girl.

I just want to put that out there. It's a horrible name for a streaming service. Four years ago, it was a killer. name for our daughter. Extremely good name for a kid. So I think one of the things here is like, I don't know that this is true, but I know this is the theory, is that allowing HBO to become a tile inside of a Mac, an app called Max, allows HBO to maintain its brand.

The same way that allowing Lucasfilm or Marvel to be tiles in Disney Plus allow them to be somewhat distinct. But the Halo brand there is Disney. And here the halo brand is Max. And I just, and also like the feelings you get for. from Marvel are close enough to the feelings you get from Lucasfilm, are close enough to the feelings you get from Pixar. Like, Disney makes a thing that is expressed through these gigantic franchises.

The feelings you get from the White Lotus should not be the feelings you get from Shipp and Joanna Gaines. But, like, that's the problem, right? There's an emotional and creative mismatch between the tiles inside of the forthcoming max app. I love to rip on Zezlov because I think a lot of, of what he's done has not been done delicately enough. And he could have saved people a lot of heartaches with better communication and things.

But he is a TV guy. He's like a terrestrial TV guy. Like he turned to discovery from this little tiny, like random assortment of the learning channel and these other things into discovery, which is kind of a behemoth in the cable space now. And his plan is to do the same here. He knows that like brands matter. And he knows that he knows how.

people watch TV, I think, is the most crucial thing here. And his kind of bet is that people are moving from terrestrial TV. They're going to move to just paying companies directly instead of paying their cable operators, instead of watching stuff and sitting through ads. And so his bet is like, I'm going to build the new terrestrial TV and you're going to give all of your money to me because I'm going to have Discovery and I'm going to have HBO and I'm going to have your little superheroes over here. And I know he talks about them that way. He says they're the little superheroes.

Little baby Batman's. Go 90 scale time. So technically, HBO Max is at 90 because it's gone. We already know it's gone. Well, it's technically at 89. It's at like 89. Until it's gone, gone, gone, gone.

It's not a 90. But it's packing up. It's looking for the door. I checked out. It has senioritis. Yeah. And so is Discovery. I start every new streaming.

service at 45, 50-50 shot. So I would say max the news service has a 50-50 shot at 45. I'm like a 20. Okay. Really? Again, I dislike Zavlov, but he's a business guy and he knows how to get people's eyeballs on stuff. I've decided to be a Zazlov apologist. I know Charles was like dancing. I'm like full on. Like do it. Slash and burn. Let's see what happens. Everyone's too polite. Do some Eelon stuff. Like I think if he I think if he can separate it enough and be like, yeah, I'm still going to have my HBO section over here. So you want to go do some artsy shit that'll win you some awards. You go hit up my HBO guy.

But you want to make some money. I'm over here with Chip and Joanne. So, okay, if we're starting at like a baseline of 45, I put it at like a 60. Oh, yeah. I think that we are at a point where there is fatigue amongst consumers for signing up for these things. I do think realistically there is a degree to which people are kind of tired of being sold on the idea of new subscription platforms. and that there is, at least I'm speaking, I'm speaking to my own experience. I'm very comfortable with the subscriptions that I have,

and the idea of getting logged in into a new thing really does kind of fill me with an existential dread that I don't think is unique. But yeah, Zazlov, he's not. If he were canceling successful HBO shows left and right, then yeah, the future would look pretty bleak. But as it stands now, while our faves may be getting the acts, like the things that people are watching on the platform, they are performing very well.

And he's made clear its intention to make more of it. So will Max at least be around for five years? Probably. I can't wait for us to spend 15 minutes on Peacock. But we've like in our feelings on Netflix and HBO Max. And like we have to get to Peacock still. Okay. We're going to get back to Peacock and Disney Plus and more.

But first we're going to take a break. We'll be right back. Support for this show comes from Shopify. Every thriving, successful business. has to start somewhere. A good place to start is a relatively simple question. What if, given the right tools,

I've really put my all into this. One tool that can help grow your sprouting business to new heights is Shopify. Millions of businesses around the world rely on Shopify for e-commerce. They offer a host of helpful tools you can take advantage of

from payment processing to analytics to website design. Their design studio includes hundreds of templates to help you create the exact website you've been envisioning for your

business. If you're wondering, what if I need help, then no worries, because you're never left to fend for yourself. Shopify's award-winning customer support is available 24-7. It's time to turn those what-ifs into a thriving business with Shopify today. Sign up for your $1 per month trial today at Shopify.com slash vergecast. Go to Shopify.com slash vergecast. That's Shopify.com Vergecast. Support for the show comes from Upwork. The days of doing it all, all by yourself, are over. There's no romance and burning out while you're trying to scale. Instead, you can check out Upwork. Upwork helps grow your business by giving you fast access to specialize talent across more than 125 categories so you can fill skill gaps, launch projects faster, and scale without committing

to full-time headcount. And finding the right talent is easy. You can browse profiles, review past work, and get help scoping the role so you can get started quickly. Seriously, you could connect with the right freelancer in just a few hours, especially when you sign up with Business Plus. Their AI powered shortlisting pairs you with the top 1% of talent in under six hours. No endless searcher required. You can visit upwork.com right now to post your job for free. That's Upwork.com to connect with top talent ready to help your business, That's upw-w-R-K-com.

Upwork.com. Okay, we're back. All right, Nilai, Charles. Let's talk about one more big behemoth in the room, Disney Plus. Big year this year. Obviously, the end of this year has been huge for them. Chapic is out. Iger is back.

And Iger has been pretty vocal about what he wanted to see from the platform, I think, especially at Recode earlier this year, or at Code Conference earlier this year. So what's going along there? Like, how are we feeling about Disney Plus right now? Before we get to the ratings, the scores? I mean, from a content perspective, I think that Disney Plus, it's the best example of a studio having that vertical system in place. It's like, hey, here's our thing. And we filled it with all of our stuff that you love so much.

Won't you come pay us a premium for it? Of course you will. You love us. And it has proven consistently to just sort of be. the dream from that perspective, but obviously it's not necessarily the competent. It's not. It doesn't have the same kind of subscriber rates that it wants.

That being said, I, in being sort of like, hey, we are the home for Disney things. In my mind has always sort of been like, yeah, it's the Disney one, right? The selection is less diverse in terms of what it is that you can get when you open up the app. And while that is definitely a feature rather than a bug,

I think, for a lot of people, it does just like compare it to the other ones. It just makes it look like a less dynamic kind of space in the grand picture of things. We would. Here's my question. If you didn't have a small child or you didn't watch a lot of Star Wars and Willow, everybody should watch it. It's great.

But you didn't have that kind of like that nerd gene and you didn't have a child. Do you have a plus subscription? Yeah. Do you have one? And I don't think you do, right? I mean, unless you're really, really, really into The Simpsons, I guess. But I think you can get that on who. But then you're a nerd.

Like, if you're that into the Simpsons, You're a nerd. A comedy nerd. But yeah, this speaks to Disney's larger plan for things. It's like we need to become a part of like their emotional DNA so that everyone has an end to Disney. Like that is sort of the galaxy brain brilliance of Disney, right? It's like, we live inside you. You can't get away from history.

Right. And you are going to pay us to feel good about our existence. Don't question it. And so with that in mind, like Disney Plus sort of, that is sort of like the underlay trick. of Disney Plus, I think you'd be hard-pressed to find people who are completely outside of that, which is sort of what they're banking on. But you're right. Like, there isn't a lot, at least here in the U.S., right, there isn't a lot on Disney Plus that would necessarily appeal to Disney adults and, you know, those a few steps from proper Disney adult status. Wait, hold on. This is,

the generation gap here is real. I encourage you all to live with a small child. Disney Plus is on in our house every single day. Well, yeah, because you've got a kid. Right. I'm just saying like between bluey and Enkanto. Yeah. Like that's what we pay the money. I do the math almost every day of like, could I buy this archive and just have it versus paying the money a month? And Disney, because it's like three things and there's a promise there will be more things, the math is, I should just say subscribe to it. Because we get, we just, it's just on constantly, everywhere we are.

It's like, how do we get half an hour of peace in our lives? It's just like a little bit more Enkonto. I can still listen to the Encanto soundtrack and not like reflexively flinch at it because I heard it so many times. Like Bluey, I am a Bluey fan. I'll put it on every now and then just like, you know what? What are those Australian kids up to? Let's find out. And it's not, I'm not Bluey poisoned yet.

And that's kind of like, that's why I want to. Disney Plus, like you dip in every now and then get what you need. You dip back out. growing with your life. But no, I totally get from, if you have children in your life, I can totally see, like, the value add to having Disney Plus in your life. Like, when you come out of the, you know, the baby's born and they give you your baby, do they also just give you a Disney Plus? Oh, yeah. The hospitals are going to start. The hospitals do this already with like brands of formula and like, like, like having a baby is a fully monetized experience. At some point,

Bob Eiger is going to realize that the three-month Disney Plus subscription is going to convert in every hospital for the rest of time. The first way you know you're pregnant is your CVS. Your CVS which just breaks out of subscription. The data brokers announced and like suddenly you're subscribed to D Plus. That's great. That's the future of all ad based. What's more interesting to me is those Disney adults, right?

Because people with kids, they all hear about Bluey. Bluey is like a viral phenomenon. It's not a marketed show. No. Right? It's just it's a phenomenon because people are like, I can watch this with my kids. And I don't hate myself. Cayu

putting that out there but it's the Disney adults and I feel like man Disney just believes that we'll watch like anything like yeah I watched Moon Night and I was like this is insulting

like the whole show is like just fully insulting to me that you think this is worth my time you didn't like the show about the Latino slash kind of English man who becomes an avatar of justice wrapped up in Egyptian mythology that's a show where it's like

Disney assumed I would like the concept and the fact that it was a Marvel and that there would be an infinite variety of SEO targeted web pages about the backstory of the character and not care at all about the actual show that was on my television, which had a CGI budget of $5. Right. And I was like, I'm watching this. I'm like, everything about me is prime to, I love Oscar Isaac. Yeah.

Everything about me is primed to love this show. And I wanted to go away. Like, I think you should start over was basically, my reaction to this. And I think that's just true of a lot of Marvel stuff lately. And I think that's actually a bigger problem than Disney wants to admit. I think that we're what we, Cranes and I talk about this a lot because, you know, we're those people. But I think that what we have sort of part of the is phase four, a flop with Marvel. I think that part of what people are picking up on are shifts within the studio, right? Shifts within the budgeting, right? We are seeing, we are all very familiar

with what a production that involves volumes looks like these days. And we have our feelings about them. A lot of people, I think the volumes are a big part of Moon Night, and that was a big part of what made everything feel so music video-y, because it's not cheap. It's not that they look cheap. They do look very... Expensive.

Expensive isn't the word. They look like the presence of money is involved, right? But it's not necessarily leading towards something that feels polished, despite it feeling shiny. And I think that from Marvel's perspective, there are financial reasons as to why it makes sense to work that way, right? When you are just looking at the list of productions that are going on, you have to keep

them under a certain kind of budget, particularly for these projects that live on Disney Plus. We are at a point right now when we are seeing a significant part of the franchise existing in episodic format, right? Even though the Netflix shows were sort of a big deal when they first launched, Disney slash Marvel didn't get really serious, serious about TV. Sorry, Agents of Shield. until Disney Plus existed, right? I mean, putting out shows that were directly meant to feed into the movies in a significant kind of way. But then they didn't. But even this, I feel like I did all this homework about the multiverse.

And then it just didn't matter in that movie. I think that there was a lot of planning that went into it, but I don't think that the execution has been all that great. I think that what we are seeing is one of the biggest corporations in the world trying something out and not entirely sticking the landing, despite the fact that their inordinate amount of resources should have made it impossible for them to mess it up quite like this. It literally feels like watching One Division was now homework that I did not need to do. It was like entertaining homework, side reading that was not important for any reason. It just feels a lot like comics.

Like if you're in the comics space right now, then you're like, oh, no, there's a big crossover. I got to go pick up like Captain Marvel from three years ago, number 12. and read that so I know what I'm going to be expecting. And that's a lot of work. And it's weird to say, but like the MCU became comic bookie in phase four, which is both a positive and a negative. Do you want ridiculous stories that don't exactly make much sense and sort of don't and don't gel with the character motivations that have clearly been outlined in this recent story

by a different creative team? Then here you go. Like, that's just comics in a nutshell. And it rubs moviegoers the wrong way because we have been, you know, we've been taught to expect not that. Especially by Marvel, right, which successfully shed some of that baggage in translating the comics to the screen. And so the MCU is different and is focused. And you understand what Robert Downey Jr. is going to do. He's got a couple of moves. They're great. They're the best moves, honestly. And like, we're going to deliver those moves to you in an escalating series of conflicts

until we kill him. Right. And like, that's great. And now they're just like all over them. And I, The reason I bring this up is to some extent, the entire strategy for Disney Plus is you're going to want more Marvel stuff. You're going to want more Star Wars stuff. You just want these franchises to get milked until they're dry and then you got to make them crazy. That's their monopoly strategy beyond your kids are going to watch Encanto three times a week. And that's fine. Like, great. But like there's not a lot of rewatch potential inside the Spider-Man movies or whatever.

Right. Like they're just like missing something now where they're just getting crazier and crazier. And it seems like the Marvel audience, the big danger here is the Marvel audience is like, is this one going to be worth it? Right. And I think that that's kind of, that is the unfortunate reality of where it is right now. Like it's interesting to think of what other alternatives a studio could have gone for. Is it all right?

Well, now that Thanos has gone, things have to just get bigger and more cosmic and more ridiculous. Is it that or is just, let's just start over. Like let's just start over with a different group of people who exist in this world. And the fact that the studio didn't decide to go in that direction, or rather, has only just started to kind of do it with the thunderbolts. And they're sort of like, like, let's just sort of. And I'm not sure that raising mistakes was the right move for something that is presumably meant to exist in perpetuity. Right. Like, comic books are created with the assumption that the stories are just going to keep going long enough that it won't matter when stories come back around.

and you sort of see the cyclical nature of the business. But movies have never worked that way, right? Sequels always have to be bigger and more expensive and better. And unfortunately, Disney slash Marvel have not sort of recognized that they are in a position to encourage our audiences not to think that way. They have sort of fed into the expectation that you're always going to get sort of like a more spectacular product. And in doing so, it's kind of work themselves into this weird corner where it's like,

well, how do we, how do we keep making these things bigger and better? I'm not really sure that you can. Well, it's like they haven't, they haven't acknowledged that basically they're doing soap operas, but with fancier colors. And they just need to embrace like the whole story mechanism that soap operas figured out in the 60s. But we got it, we got a vote. Like Disney Plus, go 90 scale. Where is it right now? Disney Plus or Disney. We're just talking about Disney Plus, which is where the Marvel lives, which is where bluey. Disney Plus is a zero. It's a zero. I go. I don't. back, they got Bluey, right? Like, you know, you don't know what to watch.

Avengers Endgame is right there. It'll burn three hours. Zero. All right. So zero and less with an asterix if they get rid of Bluey. And then it's like a five. If they get rid of Bluey, it's a 90. I'm just like, they're dead to me. Get out of here. Hulu, I think, is like an 85. I think the future of Hulu is deeply up for grabs.

But I will also say this. Hulu has been at 85 since the first day Hulu existed. Yeah. This is an improbable product. The Weird Franken Service. Charles, where's your Disney Plus? Your Disney Plus is in zero? There's always a little bit of fatalism in me, so like no one is safe.

But like I think that they're at like a solid 15. Wait, you gave Netflix a 2 and you're giving Disney Plus a 15? I'm going to stick with what I said because I said it. And I'm not going to backtrack just because I was challenged on it. But I do think that there is just because Disney Plus is a newer service, I am still waiting to sort of see Disney Plus prove what its thing is aside from. we got the Disney content. We got the babies.

We got the babies and we got the Star Wars nerds. And I get that that's, you know, that is a successful business strategy. But it doesn't light me up. So in my mind, I'm like, I don't know. You got to watch out. All right. Before we get to Hulu, quick break to talk about Amazon Prime. It's still there.

You are still required to have it if you get Amazon Prime for shipping. It is technically, I think, larger now than Netflix, simply because everybody, gets Amazon Prime for shipping. Can I just say that I love that the signature show of Jeff Bezos's streaming network is The Boys. It's just, it's like, it's perfect. Isn't that wild? It's so good that like, when you're like, Jeff Bezos, what is your biggest hit in streaming? It's like, The Boys.

The show about billionaires and superheroes who are actually evil. Like, first of all, the Boys is great and it's amazing that Amazon just lets them run with that show. Like, I think it's great. I mean, if you haven't seen it, you should go watch it. It is a great show. And it's so funny to think about, there are so many scenes of that show where I stop and just start laughing and thinking about Jeff Bezos watching that scene. And he's like, well, this is what I paid for. But this wasn't supposed to be his big series, right?

Like, this wasn't supposed to be the big landmark series of Amazon Prime is supposed to be the one that just came out this year, the Rings of Power, which I finished. watching everybody else in my group watch tapped out after like episode five, they couldn't go any further. The Rooms of Power was, it was interesting the three, three episodes that I made it through. But it's kind of like it is the danger in chasing these kinds of established IP that are very big and very popular, but have been so thoroughly mined already that the question becomes what is not just the point, but sort of like, what is the ad here? What is the ad for me an average consumer who is not a D-Id-N-Wolf fan of these things. I think that it's really interesting to look at how the streamers are gunning for fandom

and sort of like hoping that they are able to tap into not just a specific fandom's interest in a thing, but a fandom's desire to promote that thing and sort of spread its message to other listeners. And I think that that was definitely a part of the logic behind chasing the Lord of the Rings estate and hounding them down for chunks of the IP, but not the great chunks of the IP. to Amazon's credit. Like, they put the story together. It's solid.

The cast is great. Yeah. Love the world building. But it's also just, this was obviously meant to be Amazon Prime's Game of Thrones. And that kind of logic just never, I don't think it ever translates well. I think that once you as a consumer can like sniff out that kind of logic from the studio's perspective, you're immediately kind of like, I'm not hot on it. Also, everyone knows what happens.

I just want to, like, you can't be like, this is our Game of Thrones. also everyone knows what happens has since they were a teenager and have for 50 years right like right there's there's something broken with that calculus whereas game of thrones had no one knows what happens including the guy who has not yet finished the books and then they failed to stick the landing because he was like I know some shit happens like here's the like the outline of it and they were like we're done with this like just get it done I think we can all agree that in the end the House of the Dragon did emerge as like the more, the stickier sword and sorcery show that came out this year as opposed to the Rings of Power. And I think it does sort of speak to not just that

Game of Thrones still sort of, despite the fact that a crash in Burn and the end still sort of has like a, people still have a lot of fondness for it. I think it does just sort of speak to what you're talking about. There is a degree to which this IP has not been so thoroughly mined both with projects and in people's own free time that there was still like a curiosity there. Whereas with Lord of the Rings, the fandom for Lord of the Rings, the hardcore fans, they've read these books. They were, I said 50 years, 70 years. They were 50 years old when I read them as a teenager.

And so it's like, well, what could Amazon have done that would have made it a success? I don't know, right? Like, I'm not exactly sure that there is a way that you take this and turn it into something that's going to be a phenomenon just because it has already existed in the public consciousness like this for so, so long. We should talk about the other part of Amazon. So they've got like the Jack Ryan's of the world, and they've got their little TV franchises.

That's not their economic model, right? Their economic model is we give you this when you subscribe to Prime. You are much more likely to stand for Prime. Or we need reasons for you to want this so you become a Prime subscriber and all the other benefits of Prime make it hard for you to leave. Like Amazon's business model for this service is just wildly different than Netflix or HBO Max or whatever. And so they're doing things that the other streamers basically won't do or can't do. in particular live sports.

They bought this gigantic NFL package. If you want to watch football on a Thursday, you have to go to Amazon. How's that working out for you, Neely? It's hilariously fine. I'll just complain about this because this is the Vergecast and it's me. But they spent all of the money.

They're very proud of having spent all of the money to do 4K football broadcasts, and then they are still not doing 4K football. There's just something about sports in America where it's like, even when we spend all the money and go and get the trade press around our first in the industry end-to-end 4K broadcast workflow they're like we're going to go with 1080 this year brutal 720i but it's fine they're able to do it because they're like look football fans want to watch

their team it's a guarantee that they're going to get irritated into paying for prime this is what every football fan has ever said just let it let me watch the game wherever I am they're going to pay for it and then they're going to get prime and then they're going to get music and then like their Alexa will work better and then the shipping will be free and whatever bundle of prime things you care about will happen to you and then you'll stay. Right. And so they're able to front investments into things that basically no one else can do. And Charles, I wonder, like we've talked a lot about just sort of how the business affects the content in the context of HBO and Netflix. I'm wondering if you see any differences with Amazon there because that's the, I would also put them at like a zero on they go 90 scale. They're not going anywhere because their business is a subsidy and is subsidized. Right. And it's such a, it's weird to think about it this way, but in my mind, just because I've been covering these things for so long, Amazon Prime, rather Amazon's studios is still a side project for Amazon in my mind, right? Like, even though that is an entire, like that is an entire beat unto itself. And obviously Amazon has proven itself to be a strong contender in the space just by into the volume of content they put out. It's not what, you know, it is not the company's sole reason for existence. And in being that sort of like side-house, from Amazon's perspective, it does sort of ensure that it's not always going to exist, but there's no reason for them to get rid of it, right?

It's not, and it's proven itself to be a successful sort of business strategy for them. In a way that I'm, I think that's part of why you do see, I'm thinking in my head right now, like Disney Plus is trying to do like, hey, do you want to buy these things from us? And it's such a, it's such an odd sort of pivot for them. Like, hey, we're opening up a shop to a limited number of our subscribers where you can buy Star Wars paraphernalia. It's like, that's cute. And I'm sure, you know, they'll get a few hundreds, a few thousand maybe sales out of that.

But it does sort of just feel like a pale comparison to the structure of HBO Max, which is just like, hey, while you're watching the boys, also get on Amazon and buy the comics. Sorry, on Amazon, right? Like, buy the comics, buy the Funko Pops, buy all of these things. Send us more data points to know which characters you like on the show so that we just, you know what I mean? It just sort of all seems that the thing that's happening at Disney Plus, does sort of feel informed by Amazon's ability to collect all of this information,

but it's something that the other studios aren't in a position to really replicate, I don't think. It's not something that any of them can sort of reverse engineer, at least not at this point, in a way that would make financial sense for them. And I think that that is definitely something that is always going to keep Amazon on these, like, just going to keep Amazon in this space. All right, so I'm at Go 90s, zero. Are you at zero too? Yeah.

Yeah. Nothing, like nothing is heard Amazon in a way that would ever make. me think like, oh, Amazon Studios is probably... Amazon Prime is going to exist forever. As long as Amazon exists, you're going to be able to get this. Will the content be good? Who can say? Yeah.

By the way, we just had Steve Boom, who runs Amazon music. Actually, he just got promoted to run even more things in Amazon. But Steve Boom was just on Decoder, and he was like, here are the three things people get out of Amazon Prime. Shipping, Prime Video, distant third music. Like, they're the two things. It's the shipping and the video that are the point of Amazon Prime right now. Everything else in the bundle is mathed out, but those are the top two, and that means I think it's safe forever.

That's fair. All right. Now we're going to talk about the really unsafe one, which is Hulu, because the big thing here is Hulu's jointly owned by Disney and Comcast right now. We need to disclose the Comcast as minority investor in Vox Media, our parent company. I assure you, if you're listening to this, they don't like us very much, but there's your disclosure. Sure. But basically, this contract is kind of ending next year, right? So this is a holdover from Disney's 2019 acquisition of Fox. Fox owned a third of Hulu along with Comcast and Disney. And rather than buying Fox's portion of Disney, because the say, I forget exactly how much Disney bought Fox for, they left those rights to exist with Comcast because bringing them all on at once would have just been too expensive.

The deal at the time was, hey, look, you can keep this third of Hulu. But in 2024, you're going to sell it back to us for a price that we agree on now. Like, we're going to set this price. This is just the minimum. 2024 comes around. We're going to renegotiate this. The deadline to follow through on this deal is coming up. And it's coming at a time when the streaming landscape is just different, right?

Disney is all in on Disney Plus. And it wants to sink as much money as it can into just buffing out Disney. Plus, spending the money to buy back those rights from Comcast, it could. It definitely could. It doesn't necessarily want to because it's just a level of spend that all of the streamers universally are sort of like trying to like cut down on. If they're going to be spending millions of dollars, it better be on themselves rather than just buying out something else.

Also, just in buying Hulu, what Disney gets out of it isn't immediately clear to me. Obviously, they would get access to some of the content on Hulu, but then does that get folded into Disney Plus? It's not exactly clear. would kind of... But they're kind of doing it. Yeah, I mean, probably the same thing you were going to say. But a lot of that content is already folded into Disney Plus in other markets.

It's just in the United States where it's split off. And when Disney Plus was launched, they said, okay, Disney Plus is for the kiddies and the Star Wars people and the Disney adults. And then Hulu is for normal people. And that's going to be where all of our FX stuff goes. And that's where all of our adult stuff is going to go. And they've kind of kept that branding. both Chapic and Iger be like, eh, do we need those two separate platforms and be a lot more

hesitant on that? And then we've also had Comcast say, yeah, actually, we want to own this whole platform and just do that because our business is going to die soon and all we're going to, we're going to be in the internet business and that's about it. And we need some sort of TV revenue stream and we're really good, really good at it. I'm using air quotes here. So we want it so that we can be playing in this space that everybody else is playing in the streaming space. So you've got these like two companies who are both pretty invested and have good reasons to own it who are going to have to fight in 2023 over it. Yeah.

And fundamentally, it's they both want to use it. They want to kill it to bolster their other products, right? Comcast wants to bolster peacock and Disney wants to obviously bolster Disney Plus. And it's funny because Hulu itself is a good product that it's customers like. its owners have always hated it. And this has been the dynamic since it has existed, like since the first day that it is successful, despite the fact that its ownership has actively been trying to kill it since its inception.

Originally, it was like just this little upstart and you're like, oh, you want to watch TV live? We figured out a way to do it, use Hulu. And then all the TV companies were like, wait, that's our content. We're just going to buy you all together and own you so that you become our official streamer. Because remember ABC Go? Do you remember when every Disney brand was on the go.com subdomain for some completely unclear reason? Absolutely brutal. So Hulu is facing a space, but it's also like it's winning awards. As you noted earlier, the dropout cleaned up pretty reasonably at the Emmys. Amanda C-Fried won for the dropout. Elizabeth Holmes lost and is now in jail for 11 years.

Yeah, I mean, look, Hulu is fine. It has some good stuff. It is another one of those sort of default players. It has a good live TV bundle. Yeah. People like it. If, you know, there's a handful of them out in the market at YouTube TV and Hulu are assuming to the leaders. It exists. Like, there's a conviction to Hulu that is shocking given its ownership.

And I think that's just a success. I would say that a year from now, when one of these, one of the two owners has eaten it, it's gone. And that will actually, it will be in some ways a tragedy. I mean, it is going to come down to who is willing to either spend, slash forego the cash, right? Like that is going to be the thing that determines Hulu's future.

And I genuinely don't feel that anything that's going on at Hulu is going to keep it from being destroyed, unfortunately, just because everyone who has a financial interest in it does stand to gain something either by its acquisition or destruction. So they won't just leave it to exist. Yeah.

It's funny because we're basically predicting it's going away. But it's the, as I look at the list, well, Apple TV Plus is on this list in so I'm anywhere. But as you look at the list, right, the list here is like, Netflix, HBO, Disney, Amazon, Hulu, those are the ones where you don't feel bad about recommending that anyone pay money for them.

Right, you're going to get your money back out of those subscriptions in one way or the other. You're going to be entertained. The apps aren't going to crash on you. You know, there's just something solid about these ones. We're about to turn the corner into, uh, maybe there's one show you want, right? And it's funny that Hulu is the last one.

to talk about because it is the one that is yep it's the one you can feel safe recommending it's also the one that is definitely going to go away right and this is the this is the corner that's turning where the business models of these and the ownership structures of these companies are more determinate of their futures than the content or the quality of the content so okay go 90 scale for hulu i'm putting it solidly at 80 it's it's done for charles yeah 80 feels right especially because the deadline is coming up and I don't think that it would benefit either side to just not move on it.

Like they can't just ignore the deadline and be like, we're just gonna pretend that we never had those conversations. They are gonna move on it and it's probably going to lead to Hulu's destruction, unfortunately. So, yeah, anything. I'm putting it at 85 just to be contrarian. I think it's even closer to death

because Comcast is going to buy it. AT&T buys it. No. Okay. We're going to take one more break, and then we're going to come back, and we'll get into Peacock Paramount Plus, and my personal favorite, the Taylor Sheridan universe. Support for this show comes from Whatnot. Whether you're selling online or out of a storefront, you already know the challenge. You're simply hoping for people to find your listing or waiting for them to walk in.

But Whatnot flips that. They say they're the live shopping marketplace where you can shop, sell, and connect around the things you love. On What Not, you go live and sell directly to people in real time. They see what you've got, ask questions, and buy. And they keep coming back. Whether it's beauty, collectibles, electronics, luxury fashion, and yes, even cookies, sellers are building real thriving businesses. And for a limited time, What Not says they'll match your first $150 sold in the first month. You can visit Whatnot.com.

slash sell to start selling. That's W-H-A-T-N-O-T dot com slash sell. What-N-O-C-O-C-S-SEL. Support for the show comes from Anthropic. Not every question has an easy answer. And the ones that are really worth asking usually come with a healthy mix of inspiration and backpedaling, aha moments,

and quiet meditation. When you're working through one of those problems, you want a partner to bounce ideas off of and figure out where the deeper issue lies. That's where Claude can help. Claude is the AI for minds that don't stop at good enough. It's the collaborator that actually understands your entire workflow and thinks with you, whether you're debugging code at midnight or strategizing your next business move. Claude extends your thinking to tackle the problems that matter.

Plus, Claude's research capabilities go deeper, than basic search. It can have comprehensive, reliable analysis with proper citations, turning hours of research into minutes. Ready to tackle bigger problems? Get started with Claude today at cloud.aI slash vergecast.

That's Claude.aI slash Vergecast and check out Claude Pro, which includes access to all the features mentioned in today's episode. Claude.aI. slash vergecast. Okay, we're back. Now let's talk about Neely's personal favorite, Peacock.

Peacock exists. Mm-hmm. If you want to watch Yellowstone, you have to subscribe to Peacock. The number of emails I get about Yellowstone. This new show with Carla Gugino, you have to subscribe. That's all I know about Peacock. So we have started watching Yellowstone because everyone has recommended it to us. He's good.

It's one of those shows that is, you know, it's like the water. It's everywhere, but no one talks about it. Except once you tell the algorithms, internet that you are mildly interested in Yellowstone everyone's talking about it first season's great second season's it's just it's one of the shit like they're doing the thing where they keep escalating the stakes and so it's just it's just getting sillier but that's fine it's well-acted it's great i get why people are into it it's succession on horses yeah you can't say no sometimes there's guns yeah i mean the number of characters that are introduced on the show merely so that they can be

murdered. Like, ever, this, it's, we can do a whole hour on it. It's so funny. Like, people talk about how beautifully written it is and there are some banger lines in every episode. And then there's just some like, oh, our character murders people need some more people to murder. Here's some people that are going to show up to get murdered. Like, it's just like nakedly happening. Like, oh, these people are going to die. So it has its moments in the way that a big sprawling soap opera has its moments. Okay. But it's also found an audience for Peacock for Paramount Plus, right?

Like Paramount Plus is fully invested in this universe. They're doing prequels after prequels. They're bringing in star talent. 1923 is coming. Right. And then they're going to do 1883. Like they're going back in time in a hilarious way. The stars all want to work with Taylor Sheridan.

And like they've built a Marvel franchise out of a ranch in Montana. And it's sort of like underremont. marked upon, except now everyone, they're realizing, like, oh, the money is here. Yeah. And you might be able to stand up an entire streaming network full of the Paramount Library on the back of this franchise. It's, by the way, Taylor Sheridan, like, writes and directs every episode himself. Their bet is that he won't keel over and die.

But that's, like, it. That's what they got. They got that. And then, like, everyone just bought Top Gun Maverick. So, like, they didn't even, like, get the window of Top Gun. There's not a lot else there. And I'm bundling Paramount and Peacock together. You're bundling them together.

Well, just because the thing that's driving Peacock right now is Yellowstone. Right. Because Paramount Plus didn't think about it at the time when they were when they're like, we need to sell the streaming rights. And instead of keeping it on Paramount, yeah, right, Peacock, you can have the streaming rights to this. It'll be fine. And they're now like, we have a lot of regret.

We asked Peacock if we could have the rights back. And Peacock was like, no? No, it's the only reason people subscribe to Peacock. Straight up. So I would say, Peacock to me is, is at the most honest 80 of them all. Yes. Like, it's straight up. It's the Comcast, NBC disclosure about Comcast as always.

It doesn't have hits. They wanted the hit to be the Olympics, trying to figure out that company's approach to streaming the Olympics. Like, that was the most honest how to watch SEO target bait that we've ever done, you know? Like, because it was hard. It was like legitimate. Like, this is a good service to our audience to be like, how do I do this? because they're so complicated.

They haven't gotten the 4K stuff on sports right at all. And then the rest of it is what used to be Netflix's sort of like sleepy time binge watch stuff like the office, right? And they thought that bringing the office would bring all that audience over. And it turns out Netflix would be like, nope, you want to nap while you watch stuff? We have infinity content for comfort napping to happen. So I just think like they've got to make a huge change to Peacock. And maybe it means going away and buying all of Hulu and leaning into Hulu. Peacock's going to be a channel on Max and Amazon Prime.

I think that's what happens. Oh, just like one of those, like you subscribe to it within a larger bundle. Yeah, I think I think a hundred percent that's what happens to it. But why wouldn't you just do that with NBC? Because it's called Peacock, Neil. This is what I mean. Like, this brand isn't worth anything to anyone. Like you buy Hulu and you like run it as Hulu and you like merge everything together.

Or you sell NBC or your constituent like famous good brands as channels into the bigger services. there's no reason to try to build up a thing called peacock, your desire to have a product like this. Right. Like they just, it was like, I want to be a part of this as well,

moment for them. And I think you're right that like it's an 80. It doesn't last much longer. What about you, Charles? I'm going to put it at a 79, right? For one reason. One reason. And it's not,

it's not just to be a contrarian. I'm legitimately excited to see what poker face is about. Ryan Johnson and Natasha Leone's thing that's coming out, where she's a non-parent. normal detective who can somehow always tell when people are lying. Like it's like, it's silly premise. The trailer looked great. And I'm like, Peacock, why, unfortunately, you should have like been leading with stuff like this? You know, the gritty, fresh prince reboot was not exactly going to make me sign up for a new service. And then the show wasn't particularly good. And so I thought to myself,

oh, peacocks no one to pay attention to. But then just happened to casually see this. And it's like, oh, like that looks interesting. Is it enough to save a streamer? No. Yeah. Could it? Yes, it could. It could. It could. And so that's why I'm putting it at a 79, because maybe that will be the thing. Maybe it will be one show. It will be their Game of Thrones and their Orange is a New Black and they're transparent, all rolled into one. Ted Lasso, everything at once. Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right, let's talk about Paramount Plus, because that's the other kind of weird, wonky service started by a terrestrial TV show. I'm telling you, Paramount Plus, Yellowstone Universe, Red America. Yeah, that thing is. solid. Like they've got a franchise that they can build on. They've got to do all the rest of this stuff. They've got multiple franchises. They've got the, the Avatar franchise from Nickelodeon.

They've got all of the Star Trek. A lot of it's just been like nostalgia bait, which is lazy, but I'll watch it. People like Lower Decks. People like Lower Decks. People like the one with Anson Mount. It seems to be popular. And then Halo came out. I know a lot of people found it pretty forgettable. I'm still tuning in for season two. Here's what, okay, so here's the argument for it not being under 45. Okay. Right. Under 45 is more alive than dead, right?

Yeah. The argument for more dead than live, 45 and over, uh, on the go 90 scale of doing streaming services, the thing that we invented in a scale that makes no sense. But the argument that it's more dead than alive is we're in the honeymoon phase of a a just-launch streaming service that has a couple of hits and the money and the attention and the vibes are good. And there's no, the underlying corporate structure. But paramount.

Plus is not just launched. Well, it kind of did, right? But it didn't. It was a rebranding of CBS All Access, which started almost immediately after Hulu because CBS said we don't want to be a part of Hulu. We want our own thing. Sure, but CBS All Access was like not a huge hit. What I'm saying is Paramount Plus is the, the new home of the merged CBS Viacom corporate entity,

which did not exist before. Which did not. Yeah, that's true. Right. So they rebrand. They took the CBS All Access Tech platform and they rebranded it Paramount Plus after CBS and Viacom merged. By the way, this, if you want succession, like the actual history of CBS and Viacom and the Redstone, like, it's crazy. The Redstone family is nuts.

But now the company, it's one merged company. They've got all the brands. And they are in that honeymoon period of new leadership, new company, new product with some big hits. There's nothing aside from that that tells you, oh, these vibes will continue, right? there's not an enormous business model success underlying it. There's not a history of technology innovation here from this company in particular. I don't think it's history of tech innovation, but I do think we cannot ignore the fact that CBS for decades has been very, very good at finding what people want to watch and getting it in front of them. Like CBS dominated.

We denigrate like the NCISs of the world, but they are successful. franchises that have been on since Time Memorium because people want to watch them. And us talking about the fact that people are still watching Big Bang Theory on HBOMX, I think that CBS is definitely in a position to leverage its terrestrial audience on too Paramount Plus. They have not demonstrated any sort of plan or ability to do so yet. They are still so new into their existence. No, no, I'd argue that this Yellowstone thing is their plan, right? Because most of the people who are originally watching Yellowstone are watching it on Paramount TV, a terrestrial, like a cable channel, or they're maybe watching it on Peacock to catch up.

And then they're saying, okay, you watch that, you liked that. Now do you want to watch this thing where Harrison Ford plays Kevin Costner's, I think, great uncle in the 1920s and Helen Mirren's there in Irish? Come, watch that. And so, like, that's what they're doing is they're trying to do kind of what Netflix originally did, which is say, you like these characters, you like this stuff, you are scared of streaming because you live in rural Colorado. I'm thinking of just like one specific friend of mine. Come, spend your $4.

And it's just like watching regular TV. You still get your commercial. Spend your $4. And now you get to watch this premium show with Helen Mirren and Harrison Ford. And like I think we all kind of discount them because it's CBS, it's paramount. Like it's the people who gave us NCIS in the Chicago series. But at the same time, those things are hugely, hugely popular. A lot of people watch it.

And I think that's going to continue to be the case for Paramount Plus. I'm really curious to see what their subscription numbers are like. All right, I'm putting them at 45. After this conversation, I'm putting them at 45. I'm putting them at like 32. Okay. It's a fun number. I would still put them at like a 55 because it does, again, like if they are not able to really sort of get it together and figure out how

to convert that old school audience into subscribers, then yeah, Paramount Plus is going to be in a really rough position. But if they are able to make it seem like the easiest and sort of most familiar service for their fans to sort of glom onto, yeah, it will be around. Yeah, I think 1923 is going to be a big deal for them, or at least a big change for them one way or the other. All right. Now we're going to talk about Apple TV Plus. No Ted Lasso this year, but Severance. Severance was huge for them. The major. League soccer finally launching there. Nobody watches it because it's major league soccer. Rob Ellis. But it's a sport. David Pierce is so mad at you. He can't be here. Go play with your

baby, David. Joy, your adorable baby. But, you know, they're getting Oscars. They're winning Emmys. This is kind of the, a lot of people have said this is the new HBO. Who has said that? Who? Apple says that. Eddie Q is walking out. I mean like, it's the new HBO. Let's be specific about who's saying this. No, so they have a really high bar. One thing if you open the Apple TV app, there's a lot of stuff in there now. Yeah. Right.

They just licensed like all the Will Ferrell movies for a while because they've got the new Ryan Reynolds Will Ferrell movie. Like I was like, this is weird. Like I'm watching old school in Apple TV Plus right. Like this doesn't make any sense. But they're starting to like fill out the catalog in these like little spurts. So you're like, oh, Apple's got all the Will Ferrell movies. That's fun.

I'll like watch a bunch of those. And then they're going to go away. they're going to do it again. So they've got new programming ideas that make the app feel full, even though the catalog is nowhere near as big as everyone else. They are making a bunch of stuff. They just improbably made three seasons of C, one of the silliest shows ever made. They all wear masks, but they can't see. Why do they wear the masks? The number of Reddit threads are like, wait, can they see? It's like very funny on that show. I feel like that's Apple's goal. It's just like confuse a Reddit conversation into existence.

They're just making stuff. And some people really like the shows. But then they only have had, I think, the two or three breakout hits. Like, they've made three seasons of Mythic Quest, which is a fun show to watch. And also the sort of show that Netflix would have definitely killed after the second season. Right. And Apple's like, yep, we're going to re-up it because some people are watching it. Tons of critical acclaim.

Everybody really, really likes Mythic Quest. I think he'd even got nominated. Did it get dominated for Emmys this year? Yeah, the best part about Mythic Quest, by the way, is how much it relentlessly dunks. It's a show about a game studio. Yeah. And the characters at the game studio relentlessly dunk on the concept of mobile gaming at every turn.

It's great. It's the funniest shit you've ever heard. It's like Apple made this show. A lot of like game developers say it's the most realistic version of their world, which horrifying you guys. Yeah. What is happening to your industry? But, but yeah, like outside of Severance and Ted Lasso,

there's a lot of shows I really like on it, but I am alone. Like I don't think so a lot of other people watch them. We can dispenser this on quickly. Apple is it is zero. It's not going anywhere. It's part of their services strategy. It makes their bundle more valuable. It's the same situation as Amazon Prime.

Eventually, Apple's getting the place where you pay them $100 a month for your phone, your cell service, and the bundle of Apple stuff. And then every year or two, you get a new phone. Like, they're headed towards just pay us a fee for a phone service and all the stuff that comes on the phone, right? And that's going to be their model. And that's the regular birdshass that we can talk about that at length. But the TV stuff, they know it's sticky.

They love that acclaim. I think Tim Cook likes going to the award shows. Oh, yes. Fine. But the question is they wanted to do more, right? They want to do sports streaming. They have done baseball. They're starting to do soccer.

There's all this noise about them doing football. They actually have no aptitude at this. Their baseball productions are laughably bad and people hate them. We have not yet quite seen what they're going to do with soccer, right? Just getting started. And they have told the NFL, we want more than the traditional rights. because we want to do something innovative. And the NFL's like, we make the most money.

Like, buy NFL if you want it. But it's interesting, right? Because Apple, like Amazon, is, right, the product is subsidized, but it also creates a subsidy for everything else. They're able to go into other parts of the ecosystem that the traditional streamers like Netflix and others won't do. And so I think that, to me, the future of Apple TV Plus

is whether they bring on live sports and live news and take over that part of the cable bundle that a Netflix or a Disney Plus just never will. That'd be interesting if they decided to pursue that because I do my reticence about, not reticence, I just, for whatever reason, Apple's shows have not stuck with me. And I don't think it's just because I watch so many of these things. It's just because there's some part of my mind that's like,

Apple's doing TV now. What do you have to say Apple? And it all feels like an A student going through the motions of putting out what it thinks of as prestige TV. But it doesn't feel, Apple's productions never feel like creative endeavors from like a corporate level that they're trying to share with the world. It does very much sort of feel like a transparent business board, which is fine. I get it. But it is something that always leaves me a little bit cold to like a shnigadoon. It's like I, I'm not exactly sure what the

company could be doing differently to make me feel differently. But the idea of Apple really pushing TV as a bonus utility that sort of comes along with just being a part. of the Apple ecosystem does feel like the most prudent way to ensure its success going forward. Yeah. And I think the question is whether they, you know, Apple TV Plus as a service is the unique Apple product that is everywhere. Like you can just get it on Roku. You can just get it on Android TV. It's like it's strange in its way.

And I think that's part of the underlying dynamic there is, does it ever have to be a business? Or is it always this sort of factor and this long? mathematical equation of the lifetime value of an Apple customer that, you know, kind of doesn't have to justify itself all the way because that is really, and Apple's the richest company in the world, it's going to print money. They're going to subsidize this thing forever in a day. But the question is whether the service creates an identity by having that sort of existential need to exist in a way that, you know, like Hulu has an identity because at every turn it has had to prove itself as a brand. Well, I feel like it's kind of like with Amazon, I feel like when I open up the Amazon Prime app, it's Jeff Bezos going, enjoy your content and just flinging it at my face.

And then with Apple TV, it's like Tim Cook being like, hey, would you like to sit down and enjoy your content? But they asked me to sit down first and it's really polite. So I'm down for it. I'm going to give it a 10 rather than a zero just because at some point, I wonder if the cost is too much for the company. Pudney? No, you have to have an entire CEO transition. Yeah. Tim Cook cannot knife his own baby. Tim Cook's not going to do it, but I'm putting it out of 10 because Tim Cook is going to retire. You're putting into 10 because on a long enough timeline, everyone dies.

Yeah. Like, that's your 10. That's my 10. And a long enough timeline, everyone dies. And so too, well, Apple TV Plus. Charles, what about yourself? I think they're a solid zero. It's Apple.

To come so late to the streaming game and then to be like, hello, everyone, welcome to Apple TV plus and then for them to have a couple of flops and we all know it and then to to sunset the service would be an embarrassment I think that the company does not want to have so even though I'm saying that's mostly saving face they will keep Apple TV plus four all right so we're going to wrap up this episode I feel like we've learned a lot about TV this year and we've got a bunch of new news coming next year send us your submissions for the go 90 scale of doom streaming services we want to hear them let us know if you're Comcast and you're planning to buy Hulu, you can email me at alex.cranz at theverge.com. Just let me know. Give me a heads up. I want to hear all about it.

And also, if you're ever around an executive of one of these streaming services, just start casually saying they went 90. Yeah. Get this in the boardrooms of America. That's all I'm asking for. Okay, that's it for the Verge cast today. Thank you guys for listening to all of that rambling and ranting and raving about streaming. I really appreciate it. As always, there's tons more coverage on everything we talk about here at theverge.com. You can also follow all of us on Twitter. Charles is at Charles Pulliam. Neli is at Reckless, Patel.

Or, I mean, you can talk to him at his real Twitter account, which is at Reckless. And I'm at Alex H. Kranz. This show is produced by Andrew Marino and Liam James. Norie Donovan is our executive producer, and Brooke Mentors is our editorial director of audio. The Verge cast is a Verge production and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. If you have thoughts, feedbacks, feelings, or Christmas presents, you can always email Vergecast at theverge.com. And if you have questions, call the hotline. It's 866 Verge 11.

That's 866 Verge 11. Send us all your big thoughts and questions about all things tech, especially E-Inc, but all the other cool stuff too. Neil and I will be back on Friday to chat with more of the Verge crew about whatever is happening this week. Until then, we'll see you later. Rock and roll.