The Why Files: Operation Podcast - 55: Another Carrington Event? You Are NOT Prepared for the Coming Solar Storms

Episode Date: June 26, 2022

WE'RE DUE FOR ANOTHER CARRINGTON EVENT  On September 1, 1859, astronomer Richard Carrington was observing a huge sunspot. Suddenly, a flash of intense white light burst from the sun's surface.  He had become the first eye-witness of a major Coronal Mass Ejection or CME. And it was headed straight for earth.  Seventeen hours later, the night sky in North America lit up like the day. Aurora Borealis, typically only seen near the north pole, were visible as far south as Colombia. In the southern hemisphere, Aurora Australis were visible North of Brisbane.   A few hours later, on September 2, the most powerful solar storm ever recorded crashed into the Earth's atmosphere. Our magnetic field was immediately overpowered and created chaos around the world.   Nobody had ever seen anything like this before. This became known as the Carrington Event.   At the time, scientists thought this was a unique phenomenon.   It wasn't.   It's happened before, it's happened since and it will happen again.   And when it does, it could be the worst natural disaster in human history.   Let's find out why. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thewhyfiles/support

You sailed beyond the horizon in search of an island scrubbed from every map. You battled krakens and navigated through storms. Your spade struck the lid of a long-lost treasure chest. While you cooked a lasagna. There's more to imagine when you listen. Discover best-selling adventure stories on Audible. Hey, it's your buddy AJ from the Y-Files. And Hecklefish.

Right, and Hecklefish. We just wanted to tell you that if you want to start a podcast, Spotify makes it easy. It'd have to be easy for humans to understand it. Will you stop that? I'm just saying. Spotify for Podcasters lets you record and edit podcasts from your computer. I don't have a computer.

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payments. These 3X wives are expensive. You don't want to support your kids? What are you need money for? You kidding? I'm getting killed on guppy support payments. These 3X wives are expensive. You don't want to support your kids? What are you, my wife's lawyer now? Never mind. And I don't know if you noticed, but all Y-Files episodes are video, too. And there's a ton of other features, but you... But we can't be here all day. Will you settle down?

I need you to hurry up with this stupid commercial. I got a packed calendar today. I'm sorry about him. Anyway, check out Spotify for Podcasters. It's free, no catch, and a packed calendar today. I'm sorry about him. Anyway, check out Spotify for podcasters. It's free, no catch, and you could start today. Are we done? We're done, but you need to check your attitude. Excuse me, but I don't have all day to sit here and talk about Spotify. This would go a lot faster if you would just let me get through it. On September 1st, 1859, a gold miner in Denver started his morning routine.

He felt unusually tired, but shrugged it off as he prepared his coffee. He was used to waking up at sunrise, but noticed the sky was much brighter and redder than usual. Maybe a nearby fire, he wasn't sure. A few minutes later, his wife came downstairs and asked why he was up so early. Confused, he looked at the clock on the wall. It was 1 a.m. At the very same moment, the ship Southern It was 1 a.m. At the very same moment, the ship Southern Cross was sailing off the coast of South America when suddenly the

seas turned violent. Waves lashed at the hull and hail pounded the deck. The water, reflecting the red sky above, seemed to turn to an ocean of blood. That morning, an astronomer turned his telescope toward the sun and noticed something strange. What happened next was terrifying. Let's find out why. On September 1st, astronomer Richard Carrington was studying the sun when he noticed something unusual. At about 11 a.m., he was observing a huge sunspot about 10 times the size of the Earth. Then suddenly a flash of intense white light burst out of the spot.

What Carrington didn't realize was he had become the first eyewitness of a major coronal mass ejection, or CME, and it was headed straight for Earth. 17 hours later, the night sky in North America lit up like the day. Aurora Borealis, typically seen near the North Pole, were visible in Miami and Cuba and as far south as Columbia. In the southern hemisphere, Aurora Australis were visible north of Brisbane. A few hours later, on September 2nd, the most powerful solar storm ever recorded crashed into the Earth's atmosphere. Our magnetic field was immediately overpowered and created chaos around the world. Telegraph lines were shorting out in Europe and North America. Equipment was throwing sparks and some burst into flames.

Telegraph operators were burned or jolted with electric shocks. The word went out to telegraph operators to shut down the equipment. They did, but even disconnected from their power supplies, everything still worked. In fact, telegraphs were more powerful than ever. Nobody had ever seen anything like this before. This became known as the Carrington event. And at the time, scientists thought this was a unique phenomenon. Well, was it unique? Nope. It's happened before, it's happened since, and it will happen again. And when it does, it could be the worst natural disaster in human history. In 1859, the connection between the sun and the Earth's magnetic field wasn't well understood. But at the same time Carrington saw the eruption,

the Kew Observatory in London reported a large magnetic disturbance in the ionosphere. This allowed scientists to correctly link geomagnetic storms with solar activity like flares, solar wind, and coronal mass ejections. The sun's outer atmosphere, the corona, is structured by strong magnetic fields. Sometimes these fields become twisted, slowly building up energy like winding a spring. When these magnetic fields finally realign, that energy is released, which causes a solar flare or an ejection. And they're not the same things? Well, flares and CMEs can happen at the same time, but they aren't the same thing.

A solar flare is basically a flash of light. They're relatively small and take place in the lower solar atmosphere. CMEs, on the other hand, are huge, sometimes bigger than the sun itself. A CME launches billions of tons of superheated plasma into space at several million miles per hour. CMEs happen all over the sun's surface, and most of the time they drift harmlessly into space. But sometimes CMEs come our way, small ones we don't notice. On the ground, we're fine. Our atmosphere absorbs the cosmic radiation, and our magnetic field deflects the sun's plasma into the poles, which fall through the atmosphere,

causing auroras. But just like the Earth's weather can vary from gentle to extreme, so does the weather on the sun. On average, CMEs happen two or three times a day. But once or twice every hundred years, the sun creates super storms that hit the Earth. And when they do, the effects can range from inconvenient to catastrophic. There's evidence of solar super storms going back a long time. Ice core samples show powerful solar storms hit the earth several times between 7,000 and 5,000 BC. In 774 AD, an extreme solar storm called the Miyake event caused the largest rise in carbon-14 levels ever recorded. In 993 AD, a storm left evidence in tree trunks that

archaeologists still use to date ancient wood materials. And this is one of the ways they confirmed that the Norse arrived in North America 500 years before Columbus. 1052, 1279, more storms, more spikes in carbon. In 1582, 1730, and 1770, solar storms caused aurora to be seen all around the world, turning night into day. And there are dozens of reports like this throughout history. But in those reports, the solar storms are nothing more than oddities. But didn't people freak out? Humans don't like change. Well, sure, they

frightened some people who thought the world was ending or the gods were angry, but the storms didn't cause any damage. But when the Carrington event happened in 1859, civilization was doing something new. We started using machines and electricity to operate them. And that's where the story goes from

science lesson to Hollywood disaster movie. A solar storm can induce current in anything that conducts electricity. This can be the atmosphere, the ocean, and even certain types of rock, though conductivity is pretty low. But electrical wires? Solar storms love those. And modern civilization is absolutely covered by and dependent on millions of miles of wires that cover the Earth. A large enough solar storm can overload power grids, destroy transformers, and cause entire grids to fail. And this actually happened in 1989.

The Earth was hit by a solar storm that disrupted radio signals across Russia. Oh, the Russians had to be annoyed. Oh, they were. At first, they thought American spies were jamming their signals. Then they noticed their satellites were unresponsive. Several satellites were drifting for hours. The space shuttle Discovery suffered sensor malfunctions. The Toronto Stock Exchange went down. And suddenly, millions of people in Quebec province were put in total blackout for nine hours. In 2003, another storm put millions of people in the U.S. and Canada in darkness for 12 hours. And the solar storms of 1989 and 2003 were a fraction of the strength of the Carrington event. So what would happen if we were hit with a storm as strong as or stronger than the Carrington event? I'm guessing not good. Not good at all. Picture this.

You're on a family vacation driving across the country to see, uh... The biggest bowl of twine in Minnesota. Biggest bowl of twine in Minnesota. Fine. Minnesota. Minnesota. What? Might be with Al's best song. Anyway, you've got the radio on, but it starts to get staticky. This is how it begins.

In the ionosphere, shortwave radio has become overwhelmed with electromagnetic interference. Signals aren't getting through. No VHF, no UHF. UHF might be Whittle's best movie. You're a little obsessed. Yeah, I'm obsessed. Ship-to-shore communication is disrupted. Planes using VLF signals are knocked off course.

Air traffic control goes dark and planes go blind. Now, it's a good thing you're on a driving vacation because airline passengers flying high in the atmosphere just received over a year's dose of radiation in an instant. Astronauts in space receive an even higher dose. Chances of developing cancer increase tenfold as the radiation has already begun unwinding strands of their DNA. This was just the initial burst, called the precursor stage. These high-energy particles move at the speed of light, so there's not much warning.

But a coronal mass ejection moves a little more slowly it hasn't hit yet the worst is yet to come solar radiation continues to pummel the earth the atmosphere is saturated by high energy particles the earth's magnetic field stretches as the plasma tries to strip it away you look at your dashboard your gps is acting weird it can't orient itself then it loses signal altogether. But this is happening to every GPS system everywhere around the world. As radiation tears through thousands of satellites in orbit, shorting out their circuits and frying their electronics. This is more than just an inconvenient glitch affecting your vacation. Global supply chains begin to fail. And within hours, they will crumble completely.

Military communication, which relies on microwaves, fails. Radar is disrupted. Weapon systems become useless. And then, it gets worse. By now, a few hours into the event, governments are aware of what's happening, but there's no way to communicate with the citizens. All telecommunications, including emergency services, go offline. Back in your car, you're on a call with a friend describing what's happening. Your friend also reports weird technical issues and mentions the stock market just went offline. But you're having trouble hearing them. Your phone keeps losing the call. And as people around the world all experience these strange events simultaneously,

they saturate cell towers. But it doesn't matter. Nobody's phone can get a signal. Not even satellite phones work. After an hour or so, you start to get concerned and decide to pull off the highway. Maybe this is a good time to fill up your tank, grab lunch, and try to figure out what's happening. When you pull into the gas station, the line is already a quarter mile long. Gas pumps aren't working. There's chaos because credit cards won't work. ATMs are offline. Well, can I use my Bitcoin?

Nope. Your crypto wallet is dark. Hard drives around the world have been wiped clean. Bye-bye blockchain. During these last few hours of confusion, solar radiation has continued to build in the ionosphere. The Earth's magnetic field is stretched hundreds of thousands of miles into space. And when the last of the sun's plasma passes through the Earth, its magnetic field suddenly snaps back like a rubber band. And all of that energy built up in the ionosphere slams into the surface at once. Then things get really bad. Power stations around the world are overwhelmed. The failures cascade through every country on earth, leaving entire

continents in darkness. Power lines and transformers are set ablaze. Network cables both above the ground and deep under the ocean go down all at once. The entire internet goes dark. Now back at the gas station, someone from your family complains that the restroom water isn't working. Turns out water isn't running anywhere. Pumping stations and water treatment centers are offline. You hear a loud crash behind you. There's a six-car collision where a traffic light stopped working. Looking down the street, you see that no traffic lights are working anywhere. Not here, not back at home, not anywhere. There's no power, no water, no fuel.

And this is just the first few hours. From here, things get even worse. Worse! Far worse. There have been a number of studies outlining solar storm worst-case scenarios, and each study is scarier than the next. If the Carrington event, or worse, something stronger happened now, it would take months or even years to get back to normal. It's been estimated that some power grids could take

up to 10 years to repair. You could prioritize water facilities, hospitals, and emergency services, but you'd still have millions of people without power for months. Planes would have to be grounded. Trains, too, would have to wait. Some cars would be okay, but not all of them. Electric cars are great, but without charging stations, you'll miss that old gas guzzler. Still, there would be no traffic control system. Now, this might be okay in rural areas, but in a big city, it's a disaster. One study warned about how the destruction of the supply chain and lack of refrigeration would cause worldwide food riots. No heat, no air conditioning, no sewage disposal. Banking transactions require power, network access, and satellite uplink. Without these, the global financial system would be in ruins. Right now, there are over 19,000

satellites orbiting the earth, and many of those would be adrift. Right now, there are over 19,000 satellites orbiting the Earth, and many of those would be adrift. Solar storms cause what's known as satellite drag, and this is where the Earth's atmosphere expands and starts tugging on low-orbiting objects. If we can't restore power to those, they would start falling back down to the Earth one by one. But a strong enough storm would burn out of satellite's circuit boards, so there's no way to save it. According to another study, a severe enough solar storm would cause a complete breakdown of society. Most

governments would have to impose martial law immediately, and many governments would simply collapse. Remember those warnings of 2012? Well, yeah, the world was supposed to end. Well, in July, it almost did. In July 2012, the largest CME in a century missed the Earth by nine days. That was the luckiest thing to happen to our species in hundreds of years.

If that solar storm hit us, a quarter of the Earth's population could have been without power for weeks. 160 million Americans would be in the dark for months. We would still be recovering from the aftermath today. Damage in the U.S. alone would have cost trillions of dollars. And that storm happened in the middle of summer. How many thousands of people would die around the world without heat for an entire winter? Nine days. That's all that stood between us and an instant 200-year thrust backward in technology that would have changed all of our lives. We have the good news part of the video yet. This is getting stressful. Well, NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft, called STEREO, launched in 2006,

and it can spot a CME almost immediately. Oh, good. But. Oh, no. But the STEREO spacecraft can't determine the CME's magnetic field. Turns out that's a key piece of data. If the CME's magnetic field is aligned with the Earth's, it just bounces off. Magnets repel when their poles are aligned.

But you've heard the expression, opposites attract. If the magnetic fields of the CME and the Earth are not aligned, the CME strips away our protection, which means disaster. Now, the Advanced Composition Explorer sits about 900,000 miles from the Earth, and this satellite can detect the CME's magnetic field. Which gives us how much time to prepare? About half an hour. A half hour, that's it?

That's it. That means we have 30 minutes for planes to be grounded, for satellites to be put into safe mode, and grids to be powered down. Everyone has to go dark, and then we just wait it out and hope for the best. Now, on average, there's a 4% chance of a severe solar storm in

any given year and a 0.7% chance of a Carrington-level event. But every 11 years, the sun enters a period of peak activity called a solar maximum. Then the odds get much worse. But when is the next solar maximum? Well, we're currently in solar cycle 25, which began in 2019 and is expected to peak in 2025. During the solar maximum, chances of a severe solar storm go to 28% and chance of a Carrington superstorm go to 4%. Every year, a new roll of the dice. And despite the blackouts and chaos solar storms have caused in recent years, a 4% chance is just not scary enough for governments to take the necessary action. We need more resources diverted to research, more satellites,

and a full overhaul of our power infrastructure. And those resources aren't coming anytime soon. Hey, didn't we just pass a big infrastructure bill? Yeah, yeah, I realized that was a stupid question as I was asking it. We can't count on the government. We absolutely cannot. Instead, we have to rely on ourselves and our local communities, just like we do before a hurricane or a tornado or an earthquake.

Make sure your family has a readiness plan. Maintain a supply of food and water. You need thermal blankets, camp stoves, propane heaters in case the heat goes out. You need hygiene supplies, first aid kits, and a hand crank radio. Keep all these on hand all the time just in case. So you say you become a prepper? Well, if that's what you want to call it. But being over-prepared is better than not being prepared at all.

Because it's just a matter of time before the lights go out. And when they do, there is no cavalry coming. In the end, the only one looking out for you and your family is you. You sailed beyond the horizon in search of an island scrubbed from every map. You battled krakens and navigated through storms. Your spade struck the lid of a long-lost treasure chest. While you cooked a lasagna.

There's more to imagine when you listen. Discover best-selling adventure stories on Audible. You sailed beyond the horizon in search of an island scrubbed from every map. on Audible. While you cooked a lasagna. There's more to imagine when you listen. Discover best-selling adventure stories on Audible. You searched for your informant, who disappeared without a trace.

You knew there were witnesses, but lips were sealed. You swept the city, driving closer to the truth. While curled up on the couch with your cat. There's more to imagine when you listen. Discover heart-pounding thrillers on Audible. Thank you so much for hanging out with me today. My name is AJ. That's Hecklefish.

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