The Wolf Of All Streets - $15 Billion Into Ethereum? | Here Is Why You Should Invest In ETH Right Now!

Episode Date: July 3, 2024

Join Matt Hougan, the CIO of Bitwise, as we are discussing the upcoming launch of the Ethereum ETFs. Should you buy ETH right now? Join the show! Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital Matt Hougan: https://x.com/Matt_Hougan ►►JOIN US HERE AND CHAT WITH ME ABOUT THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS (NO BOTS) https://roundtable.rtb.io/RTBHOME/posts/Kep9CfkFPSNK39jWEq2a ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code 'TENOFFSALE' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd  ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Ethereum The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

The market continues to dip in the summer doldrums, but there are some huge tailwinds coming for the crypto industry, potentially none larger than the Ethereum spot ETF starting to trade. Now, we thought that would see those approvals yesterday. That obviously didn't happen. We'll dig into why that is and when we can expect to see them. But I think maybe the biggest headline surrounding these Ethereum spot ETFs was today's guest, Matt Hogan, saying he expected potentially 15 billion to come into those in the first 18 months. We'll dig into how he got that number and why he expects that and what that means for the industry. Matt and I will probably dig into a lot of other things.

You never know where the conversation is going to go. Always one of my favorite guests. Can't wait to get this going. And, of course, Texas West Capital on the back end. Let's go. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. You can hit the dislike button for the market, but don't dislike me. It's not my fault.

I know you guys blame YouTubers and anyone who has an opinion when the market goes down. We're just people, and we're just here to try to figure it all out. And when I want to figure it all out, I bring on people a lot smarter than me. Matt, that's you. Good morning. How are you? Doing well, Scott. Thanks for having me on. Yeah, man, you made some some nice waves. You know, everybody loves a big number, a big prediction. We all love pining over inflows and outflows, which now seem to change every day. It's become almost irrelevant to talk about them. But here we go. There you are. Ethereum spot ETFs to attract 15 billion of net inflows in first 18 months. Investors are likely to allocate funds ETFs in proportion to the relative market caps of Bitcoin and Ether, the report says. Feels like a big

number, but when you put it at 18 months with the expectation that we're going into a bull market and based on, I think, how wildly Bitcoin spot ETFs outperformed expectations, this doesn't actually seem as hyperbolic as people may have thought. I agree with that. I think it's perfectly rational almost down the middle. You know, I wrote it for two reasons. One was that people weren't excited about these Ethereum ETPs. I don't know what it was, but I kept hearing people put out random numbers on the Internet, like they're going to be failures or they're not going to attract assets.

And when you look around the world, Scott, if you look at Europe, if you look at Canada, those ETP markets, if you look at Coinbase, if you look at Europe, if you look at Canada, those ETP markets, if you look at Coinbase, if you look at Binance, everywhere that investors have the chance to invest in Ethereum, they do. And I just didn't understand why that wouldn't be the case here. The other reason I wrote it, I was having a conversation with the head of a hundred plus billion dollar advisory firm, and he had been reluctant to allow his advisors to invest in Bitcoin because it's only one asset and he wants to diversify. He said, as soon as there's an ETH ETP, they'll put them together and then they'll feel comfortable investing in that. And it just struck me that sort of the

default position should be, of course, these things are going to be successful. Of course, they're going to be successful about at the proportion of Bitcoin and ETH in the market. And then I looked at a bunch of data and sure enough, that's exactly what came back. So I think it's a down the middle prediction. We could be higher, we could be a little lower, but I think 15 billion is in the bag. So this is based on sort of that 23 to 27% allocation to Ethereum versus Bitcoin, a very conservative number. And as you said, if you look at where these are trading, where you have both Bitcoin ETH and foreign markets, it's within that sort of 10% range of 20 to 30 is 17 to 27, whatever it is. Yeah, it's almost perfect. If you look in Europe, ETH ETPs are 23%

of the Bitcoin ETH market. If you look in Canada, they're 22%. If you look at market caps, it's 26%. This is where ETH is. And we should expect these ETPs to be successful. That's what I hear from advisors every day. They're looking forward to it. Interestingly, if you look at past cycles, you sort of get the huge Bitcoin move and then the Ethereum move after. So if we actually mimic that, it should end up being a lot higher, at least for a point in the cycle.

Then maybe it rebalances. But I think it'll be higher, to be quite frank. I think you might be right. I think that these numbers overlook that fact that we're entering what is usually the ETH cycle. They also overlook sort of two huge tailwinds that I see for ETH, which is it had a lot of regulatory uncertainty. And over the last two months, a lot of that has gone away. Not only did we get these sort of movement forward on ETH ETPs, but we also saw Washington generally change its tune on crypto. That's a massive tailwind for ETH. And then you have the

after effects of the Denkun upgrade, which I don't think the market has fully recognized what that will mean for this market. We forgot it happened. And you put those together with an ETP, I agree these could be conservative, it could be much more. I mean, I think the arguments against it are probably from either hardcore Bitcoiners or people outside of the crypto industry who just don't really understand. They point to the fact that, holy wow, it's been such a process just to educate RIAs and institutions on Bitcoin. And we got this sort of like firing squad approval of the Ethereum spot ETF. So nobody was ahead of it. You guys have had a few great ads since then.

And there's this educational curve. But I think that those aren't the people that are buying it initially anyways. I think it's the, as you said, like it's being bought up in these other places with that same educational challenge relative to the market. So I think actually that's an argument that these could catch up and do a greater proportion in a year or in six months. I think that's right. You know, in point spot ETFs like these RIAs bringing that online makes that process easier for ETH because they've already taken the big jump, right? That's exactly what I was going to say. We've been going through this due diligence process where these committees have to evaluate

custodians and liquidity partners, and they have to make sure these funds actually work. And they've done that work for Bitcoin. They're getting to the end of it. ETH is going to run 80% faster than that through the due diligence committees. And so I think, again, I could be on the conservative side. I think it could potentially be higher than what I was talking about. So Bitcoin and ETH are great. But when you look at the way most people invest and the way that markets work at this point, you have very few people who are out there buying and selling individual stocks and trying to make picks. The way that the bulk of people, for better or for worse, invest at this point,

to my understanding, is index funds. You have a professional, an institution, a BlackRock, puts together a fund. You passively add your money to it, they passively invest in the assets to rebalance. And that's how you basically manage your portfolio and try to beat the market. I have to imagine that now that we have Bitcoin and ETH, more exciting than future ETFs, which we can get into for individuals, is now going to be the ability to do a top 10 by market cap index or a DeFi index or a metaverse index, because that's what's going to make sense, I would say, to traditional investors. Broader exposure to the crypto industry without having to understand it or make picks. I don't

understand tech or AI at a deep level, but we all are exposed to it. It's the funniest thing to me. There's a few narratives that make me laugh, by the way. One is that BlackRock owns all the Bitcoin miners as if BlackRock made a decision that that's the business they want to be in. No, they have index funds and they have to passively buy those to rebalance, so they own them. Or people who hate Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk say, I would never own Twitter or Meta stock and don't realize that they probably own 10% or 20% of their portfolio is in these stocks because of the funds they're passively investing in. Yes, that's exactly right. I mean, that's how people invest. They buy baskets. They don't buy single stocks. You know, you get fired

on Wall Street mostly if you buy a single stock because there's too much risk. What if you're wrong? And I think that's going to be true in crypto. You know, the reason I joined Bitwise seven years ago was it was the first crypto index fund provider. Ultimately, I think that's going to be true in crypto. You know, the reason I joined Bitwise seven years ago was it was the first crypto index fund provider. Ultimately, I think the largest funds in this market are going to be index funds. What's the largest ETF? It's the S&P 500 ETF. Why?

Because that's the easy button for investing. An index fund will be the easy button for investing in crypto. And we're getting pretty close to that. So it's coming. Yeah. And it also adds another possibility, which you had floated, Jeff, obviously, who one of your researchers, I believe, who we have on space is quite often says, my colleague, Matt Hogan, writes an excellent weekly memo, where he recently advocated for the consideration of ETH as a technology investment

akin to high growth tech players like NVIDIA and Facebook meta. This was the very last sentence of the memo. What does that actually look like? And this is the answer, right? We don't just need indexes within crypto. You're talking about indexing ETH with other tech plays. Maybe someone needs to launch a new ETF that's 10% ETH and 90% tech stocks. As a starting point for the future of technology, you could do a lot worse. And he actually, I mean, he digs into it for anyone who wants to read the thread of what it would do for your Sharpe ratio, etc. Spoiler, every time you add one of these crypto things to a traditional portfolio, it increases your Sharpe ratio. That is the spoiler. Yes, you could assume that.

But I think it makes a really important point, which is, you know, most investors just want to own tech. And 99% of investors are missing part of tech. The default starting point, the position that everyone should start with, is a combination of tech stocks and crypto assets. That's the technology space today. It's not just tech stocks. If you only own tech stocks, you're missing an important part of the fastest growing corner of technology.

So the default position should be, like I said, 90% Q's, 10% E, and then away you go. And if you want to overweight crypto, great. If you want to underweight crypto, great. But if you don't have crypto, you're missing a big chunk of the market. It would be like owning the market, but not owning NVIDIA, right? And no one would want to do that today. So I do think that's going to evolve as a narrative on Wall Street, and this will be a normalized part of portfolios. I'm literally reading this right now, and it's so compelling when you look at it, right? When you can look at this as one year, three years since 21, but that green one, by the way, is that 90-10. If you've added ETH, this is what would have happened over any of these periods. It's very clear that you would have done better than just simply investing in tech stocks.

You look at the simplified Sharpe ratio, it goes from 0.61, 0.63, 0.84. For those of you who don't know, you want a higher Sharpe ratio, which usually means having to have some sort of uncorrelated or idiosyncratic asset in there that even can go down when other things go up. That's what people don't realize. That's still a good thing. You just want it to not do the same thing. And then you look at the correlations here, as he said, which I point out all the time, and people scream at me, we are not correlated to other markets. It's just not. It's not, right? Yes. It's so shocking to me that that narrative that we're highly correlated persists. We were correlated for 5% of crypto's history. And that was when the Fed did historic adjustments of interest rates and the largest QE ever. Of course, everything was correlated for a few months. 95% of the time, we're not correlated. So when you add it to a portfolio and rebalance, you get the free lunch. You get higher risk-adjusted returns, higher returns, and the same or lower volatility. People are entitled to their opinion, but not their own facts. And they're just ignoring the facts here. You obviously don't live in America.

I should get used to it. We're going into an election cycle. Everyone's entitled to their own facts. That's true. We're post-fact. Opinions as facts, I should say. So I think it's worth discussing now, obviously, then when are we going to get these Ethereum spot ETFs, right? Because this is all great in theory, but it's July 3rd and it didn't happen, man, right? We were supposed to have these trading yesterday. If Ether ETF hopefuls, you're up for approval as soon as mid-July. Kicking that can slightly down the road here, right? Yeah. I, you know, Eric and James over at Bloomberg put out that estimate of July 2nd. I think they forgot that Rehoboth is a nice beach and, you know, SEC staffers like to take their vacation just like everyone

else. I'm happy we're not launching today. It's a half day on the market. It would have been a mess. It would have been a mess. We're much better off launching next week or the week that follows. And that's where most people think we're lining up. I've seen reports in the media. Obviously, I can't talk about our own filing, but reports in the media about the next wave of filing being to July 8th, my birthday. It's a beautiful day. Let's hope that it happens shortly. But I think we're better off with not this week. We're going to get there. We're just not there quite yet. It's irrelevant, right? I mean, it's not like we saw any meaningful price action on the rejection it kind of came and went i don't even think most people are so on top of it that they were necessarily sitting at their computer waiting

for that launch button right i just it was not like bitcoin you know bitcoin it was like there was a date and the entire world was hoping and we had, you know, 400 filers trying to get there. You know, it's different this time. Even so, I mean, I guess we need to wait for these S1s. So let's say that the S1s get approved. That's what we're waiting for right now, right? We've gotten the 19B4s. We're waiting for that S1. How long do you think we see between the S1 approval and the actual trading day? So I think what I would watch as an outside observer is there's going to be a new round of filings next week, is what the media is reporting. Do those filings have expense ratios? The issuers aren't going to

show their hand on their expense ratio until they need to put the final filing in. That's what we saw on Bitcoin. And that's just what sort of competitive theory would tell you. We'll wait to the last moment. The day you see a filing where everyone has their expense ratio, you can expect it to launch either one or two days after that. So on Monday, if they're new filings, do they have the expense ratios? That'll be the bat signal on whether it's go time or whether there's one more rev. And once you see those expenses, then you know it's coming in a day or two. Yeah, that makes sense. So it's going to happen.

I don't think it matters that it hasn't yet. But there were a few things we saw in the lead up to the Bitcoin spot ETFs that we haven't really been seeing here yet. So you guys have done your advertising campaign. You're starting, which are amazing, by the way, I should be playing them. I don't have the clips. Maybe Misha can get them, but you guys should go look up the commercials that Bitwise has been doing, which feature like this old man in bed. It's amazing. But anyways, we haven't seen that from 10 filers, right? We haven't seen this sort of mass advertising wave. And we haven't even heard much about the fee wars, which was a huge thing in advance of the Bitcoin spot ETFs launching. We've seen VanEck obviously say they're going to do no fees.

Matt and Matt Siegel actually came on last week and made an interesting case. Like, we're just going to buy a bunch of Ethereum, basically, and it's going to make it all go up. So that's how we're going to make our money in layman's terms. But why haven't we seen sort of all of those things happening here? Yeah. I mean, our ads are about Ethereum broadly, not specifically about the ETF. You can't yet. Yeah, you can't yet.

And we saw that last time too. The first wave of ads was, this is what Bitcoin is, this is why you should have it. It didn't show you. Yeah, you can't yet. And we saw that last time too. It's like we saw the first wave of ads was, this is what Bitcoin is, this is why you should have it. It didn't say buy Bitwise, right? That's right. I think the short answer to that is that this was a surprise, right? You have to be able to move extraordinarily fast to go from not expecting these ETFs to launch

to being fully revved up and ready to go in just a few weeks. Even for a startup like Bitwise, the processes and compliance and things to get things like materials ready and maybe marketing ready. This is a very tight timeline for a startup. And when you go to a large company, I think it's just hard to make those wheels turn that quickly.

You have to remember like a month ago- They gotta call the ad agency, they gotta approve the budget, they gotta go through the 17 iteration. The team has to come in and present on the poster board. It's a lot. It's a lot. The struggle is real. You know, a month and a half ago, no one thought this was happening, right? The odds were extremely low. And I think most issuers had sort of assumed this was an end of year, maybe post-election thing. And I think most issuers had sort of assumed this was an end of year, maybe post-election thing. And I think it's just a, you know, you got to get the engines turning. They'll, they'll, they'll turn over. You'll probably see a big push in the fall. Um,

but I think that's the, that's the answer. It's just, it's, it's hard to be that fast. You know, Bitwise is pretty fast and it was hard for us to be this fast. Yeah, that makes sense. You guys just basically are the most nimble. Yeah, BlackRock's going to take a little while to get their ads approved if they're coming, right? That's right. Listen, so we get the Ethereum spot ETFs in the coming weeks. I think there's pretty good consensus about that. And it has everybody inevitably asking what's next. We talked about index funds and such, but, you know but VanEck and now 21 shares filing for Solana ETFs. I have my doubts that

that's going to be a thing anytime soon, certainly under this regime, but we know that things can change relatively fast. But now, of course, it has people going further down the curve trying to speculate what we could get. I think an XRP product launched in Europe two days ago, something. I kind of saw it in passing. I asked Austin from AllCoinDaily this yesterday on the street, and he pointed to this, which I had totally missed, by the way. So I reported at some point passively that Coinbase had gotten approval basically to have CFTC regulated futures products. big news that was they have a couple i don't know if they're popular but these were the next five that they're doing for these which made austin say these could be the next five etfs because they would have a futures market to look

at this is not a cme futures market i'm not saying that's true avax link dot xlm and shib that's like uh i'm not saying there's anything wrong with those tokens to all the passionate AVAX, LINK,.XLM, and SHIB. I'm not saying there's anything wrong with those tokens to all the passionate communities out there, but that's like they had a couple drinks, pinned some names up on a dartboard, closed their eyes, turned around backwards, and just threw for it. Where do we get these names?

SHIB? A SHIB ETF? Oh, man. through for it where do i get these names shib a shib etf oh man i don't i don't uh i agree it's it's an odd selection i wouldn't be holding out hope for a shib etf this cycle i don't think anyone is i don't think anyone is i don't think i don't think anyone wants to buy SHIB in an ETF format. Anyway, you know, mostly Bitcoin and ETH are 70% of the market. That's a great starting point. If you look internationally, there are ETFs on other assets, and I think we'll get them here in the U.S. post-election. If there's a change at the SEC, I think that will open the doors. Maybe two years from now or a year from now, we'll have a broad array of ETFs. But for right now, it's going to be Bitcoin and ETH, all these other markets.

Even if the argument from Altcoin Daily is right, that these are regulated futures markets, you still need to let them cook for a while and build up a data stream that you can compare against the spot price to see the correlations. That process alone takes a couple of years. So it's nice to look forward, but I'm really excited for Bitcoin and ETH, 70% of the market. That's a good chunk. It's a great starting point. And the people who buy those in ETF format, they may go and buy other crypto assets directly. I think we could see that. That's my thinking. There has to be some breaking line where you go from mainstream interest, and this is not a negative, but you

go from what's interesting to mainstream to what's like your degen or your crypto native enough, or you have enough understanding of the market that you're just going to go buy it on Coinbase or Betamask or however further you go down. It just feels like the people who would be interested in SHIB are already pretty much through the front door. They are through the front door or issuers like BitWatt. We have institutional funds that cover the DeFi indexes or NFT indexes. You can get those sorts of things, but in an ETF wrapper that's available to my father, maybe we don't need a SHIB ETF quite yet. So one of the narratives we obviously discussed was the political winds shifting. I think that's like maybe bigger than even having had ETF approvals, right?

Because I think that regardless of who wins, I'm not going to say one is not better than the other, but regardless of who wins, the situation is a hell of a lot better than we would have ever imagined two months, six months or 12 months ago. Because I believe now there's a sentiment that it's very politically unpopular to be outright against this industry. So even if the rhetoric dampens, I'm not saying that would be the best case scenario, it would be good. But now we even have this obvious problem. I hate to go too deeply into politics, but PolyMarket obviously is a crypto native predictive markets platform. I mean, we're seeing that Kamala Harris would pull better against Trump, but we're seeing people with their actual money. And this is what's interesting to me. This is the sharps. This is the people who are willing to take their money and put it down. They may be more crypto native, so it can be skewed saying they think

that Biden's out. Right. So, I mean, does it mean anything to you if it's a different Democratic candidate for our industry? I'm not making political predictions here necessarily, but do we know anything about any of the other people and their position? Or is this more like it's a party position on the industry? Well, my take on it generally is that we are at a low point from sort of the regulatory infrastructure around crypto in terms of the CFTC or the OCC or name your multiletter agency, right? They are generally led by people who are hostile to crypto. And therefore, in a respect, any change at the top of the ticket is likely to produce a good outcome because it could shake things up at that regulatory layer. And because we've seen Democrats become more neutral on crypto from overtly hostile,

because we've seen sort of the Warren wing fade from prominence. As long as that trend stays intact, I think change is better than no change. Right. I think I think I think it's moving in the right direction. So if there's a reason for there to be turnover at those agencies, I think it's positive. Look, I think the changing tenor in Washington is probably a bigger deal than the ETFs. I think if people understood it, crypto would already be at all time highs. I've been very frustrated over the last few months. We have thousands of meetings with advisors trying to explain to them how Washington has changed.

And it's just hard to get across the scale of that difference unless you're inside this industry. But boy, I think it's going to be a massive tailwind over the next 12 months. Why would you know? And it makes sense. First of all, it's like an aircraft carrier. It takes a long time to turn. But we've seen years and years and years of conditioning that Bitcoin is bad, anti-crypto army, boiling the oceans. Right. You don't see stories saying Bitcoin no longer boiling oceans. Right. So even if it's just a thawing, the mainstream isn't seeing news about those things going away. They just conditioned by the news that they've seen in the past, maybe because Trump is speaking so favorably about it.

Some people are noticing as a political issue, but because Trump is speaking so favorably about it. Some people are noticing as a political issue, but I don't think so. I think your mainstream still has only seen the big stories about the negatives politically. So they're just going to assume that's the case. We all assume that the last thing we read is what's presently accurate. I think that's totally right. Like, what if I were to tell you, Scott, that Washington has really changed its tune on gene editing? And I'm really bullish on Yeah, I mean, it's a huge, like, of course, you would have no idea. You'd be like, Matt, what are you talking about? What do they even think? What are we talking? And that's what I think of your outside of crypto

is the view. Like, yeah, go ahead. You've been telling me this story for a while. I don't believe you. But it really has fundamentally shifted and i think we're going to feel that in just absolutely massive ways uh over the next 12 months you know it would be a really fun show to do like even just once a month like either like normie where we maybe we get together we do some of your ra pitches like live on camera we get some very friendly ones and we let them ask the questions and we could see in person just like where the that would be awesome curve is landing it could literally just be like guy on the street interviews but it'd be really fun to have some larger ras maybe who want a little attention and we yeah we'll treat them with the kid gloves and we come on and we listen to

your pitch or at least listen to their questions and see where this thing is really at. We should do that. Yeah, we'll make it. I don't know if you guys would like it. Seven people or 7000 would show up. I have no idea. But I think it's been very like my my ethos with the channel has always been like, how do I talk to mainstream and mainstream adoption and get the new people? And I don't really need to talk to the people that are like trading memes and get it right. But the reality is those people aren't just coming and watching YouTube channels unless we go out to them. They're not going to find us. We need to go find them. Right. Like that. Yeah. Well, at least they can all read your memo. We're trying. We're trying to get out there. We're doing our part, but that'll be fun. We

should make that happen. Yeah. Before I let you go, can you tell people where they can read that and find that? It used to be kind of, it wasn't behind a paywall, but it was behind a sign-in, right? You made it completely free and accessible. And it really is, guys, it's the best, I think, appraisal of where we're at ThinkPeace every week, because it's based on, but it's based on what you guys are seeing on the ground and the questions that people are asking. Yeah, that's right. We have a unique thing. We do 20,000 meetings with professional investors a year. So I digest what we're hearing there and what I see in the market every week. If you just go to Bitwise Investments and click on the Insight tab, you can find it. It's the Bitwise CIO memo. You can probably just Google it and get there. And I always promise it's short. It's, you know, five, 700 words. So I don't try to

overwhelm you, but yeah, we'd love to have you subscribe or just view it. I'm okay. I'm trying to open it now, but I'm moving too slowly through the disclosures. Insights, right? Yeah. It's in the insights. You know, we'll, we we'll we'll put up a link on twitter um yeah it's amazing guys i mean i've dug very very deep into this entire portal obviously because i had access before you made a lot of it um public when we talked if ever you were just to point someone to like really basic amazing knowledge on things they need to know. You guys have done an incredible job there. So I appreciate it. And guys, you can follow Matt down in the description. Obviously, I love seeing, by the way, since these ETFs have launched, how big you individually, but bitwise have sort of become in the community. And I think it was actually really inspiring and encouraging to see that people

understood who had been here from the beginning and who could speak about this in a way that everyone would understand and who maybe were just the big institutions, which is fine, trying to capitalize. But you guys really managed to differentiate yourselves as the opinion leaders for what's actually happening with ETFs. I appreciate that. We've been trying and it's been great to see the community rally behind us. We appreciate it. Yeah. And we appreciate that you're always willing to take the time to come on the shows, Matt. Thank you guys, everybody follow and please do go check out those memos on Bitwise. Thanks, Matt. I wish we had another hour. Thanks, Scott. I'll see you

again soon. Have a good one. All right, guys, As we move on, I'm going to bring on Chris in one second. I want to remind you that down in the description as well is a link to the round table. I've been doing all these guys probably have not noticed, but, you know, I told you about the round table, which is a platform that basically ideas that we can interact with you guys without all the bots that are in YouTube and Twitter. It's not its own social media platform. It's very curated content where we can actually talk to our audiences. If you want to ask questions, I do make a point to go there and interact.

There's a link down in the description. It's literally just a comment link. But as a part of that, one of the things that we own, I'm a partner in the roundtable, is the street, actually. So if you got it, which is the publication that ironically Jim Cramer started years ago, but over 30 million investors, boomer investors with huge portfolios read the street. And to the point that Matt and I were just discussing, the reason I decided to do this and to work with them and to do things for the street, which I don't need that headache, to be honest, is because we can actually reach mainstream investors. And so I've been doing like six, seven, eight, nine short interviews a week on the street, which is kind of awesome. It's like a CNBC, Fox Business equivalent. I show up, I'm the anchor, and know, it's like a CNBC, Fox business equivalent. I show up, I'm the anchor and I ask people questions.

We do three, four minute interviews. They're not tagged anywhere like really on my YouTube or anything. So you guys probably don't see them. It just occurred to me. But the goal there is that we bring crypto to like the Fox business and CNBC and MSNBC type audience because those are the people that are reading the street and seeing these interviews. So it's been a major hurdle stepping up my game to get to that, adding that into my flow. I mean, I'm doing these things every single day in between spaces and in

between YouTube, but I think it's really important. Like that really is the purpose of this channel. You'll notice like you guys are not, I'm guessing there's some of you, but you guys are not a bunch of like 17, 21, 26 year olds who are flipping meme coins. Like when I meet people who listen to the channel, when I go places, it's always guys like me and gals like me. Well, a lot of women here too. You know, people who are in their forties and have established themselves to some degree and are looking for more information. And that's the audience we want to talk to. I'm not trying to out-compete with other channels that are... And there's nothing wrong with them.

It's great. But this channel is not as much for the people who are super down the rabbit hole. It's for the people who want the news and for us to find ways to bring in new people and i think working with the street is one huge access but go down and click and we can interact on the round table i got chris here and that means i know we got fibbo swanny here yep he's always here if you're here yeah what's going on man well we're dead well you know again it seems like we say this every few weeks you know we're dead again for the you know the five million seven hundred sixty nine thousandth time or something last year i recall but whatever yeah yeah but you know again you

know it's the same thing we talk about week after week we're still range bound uh people still losing their mind uh you know the longer you go range bound, the more people question their there because, you know, they got in thinking it was going to continue going up immediately. And so the longer you go sideways within a range, you know, the more they're going to think, well, geez, maybe I bought the top again. You know, the bears are very loud out there right now. And, you know, it's just part of the course. Right. It's just what we go through. Um, we just wait. You're at the range lows. I mean, can I show you something that might have brought to you before we get started? Cause I've been talking about for a while, we hit RSI hit oversold on the daily for the first time since last August, which by the way, was at like 26,000.

You taught me that RSI will inevitably make the trip from overbought to oversold. Right. So when we were in here, I kept saying, man, there's a lot of things here that look like bottoms, but we got to get to oversold soon. Eventually. Right. Before I think we really hit up. Well, now it looks like you never know how far price could go.

But odds are, I would say 90% plus chance if we get a close below 60,293 on Binance, I think it's 60,300 on Coinbase. We will probably get massive bullish divergence here coming out of oversold RSI. Right. I mean, we would have to have RSI do a close below 25.53. It would be a hell. We'd be in the 40s. I think we'd be in the 40,000s to get there, which could happen.

I'm not saying anything can't happen. But any close below this, we got to be starting to look for a bottom here. Yeah. Yeah. And I, you know, and I think that's, uh, I think it's probably what we're looking for anyway. You know, we do have that, um, uh, what do we have that, that hidden bullish divergence, uh, back here from the last time we popped down low to that previous, uh, swing low right here. So we had that hidden bullish divergence already. We've popped up. Now here's my thing. We're three waves up. Um, so generally we kind of look at that as okay, three waves up and we've dropped back down below the second wave, right? We go ABC here. So your first thought is, okay,

this is corrective and we're going down lower. So if we're going down lower than based on the height of this here, we got a target down here around, this is the Bitcoin all time index chart here, but that's a 55, 470 target. As you can see, of course, I've extended my range. You remember I had it lower here thinking maybe this might've been the spring here, but you know, again, we, we didn't stay in the top half of the range. We broke down, which suggested that the range was still playing out. Volume continues to be low. You know, again, everybody's talking about distribution, but one of the things we look for is, you know, are you getting a lot of volume at the top of the range?

And as you can see, we're really not. Volume very, very low up here at the top of the range. And as you can see, we're really not. Volume very, very low up here at the top of the range. And then beyond that, are you then seeing volume expansion as you're going down? Because what that tells you is you've got more and more sellers jumping on board, more conviction in the short, right? We don't see that. So everybody out there has their reasons for why it has to be a top. For me, volume and price action does not at this point suggest that is what's going on. It doesn't mean things can change, but generally speaking, those are the two big things we look for, and we're not seeing them. For me, I continue to look here.

If we break down, if we do make us a new low here, based again on the height here, I think we could potentially see what would end up being a spring here. So just a dip below on the daily here, below that range support, and then close back up above it. But we may not even get there. We've got the S1 pivot right here. So we may stop there. Or again, the daily candle could have a, you know, it could wick down into this area and then come back up and close back above it. You'll notice there is a fair value gap here. And so we often look toward those as areas of support or resistance. So there's a lot of things that kind of align in here for what we do. But here's the interesting thing.

If we jump into the four-hour, we came back and pulled back right to the S1 pivot on the four-hour here. We swept this liquidity right here around 59, 972, nice long lower wick. We've got good volume on that. And here we are trying to rally up. So again, generally speaking, three waves, we usually expect it to be corrective. However, there is the possibility. This could potentially be a one with three waves down and then one, two, one, two, three, four, five. So three waves up and then five waves back down. That just gives us a

big expanded flat. So you get a wave one, you get a wave two, and that would give us a target up here around the R2 pivot on the hourly at about 66, 426. So what am I looking for? I'm looking for an impulsive breakout and close above this hourly pivot area here. Impulsive, what do I mean? I mean a larger candle spread like this, the candle body and a spike of volume. That's what I'm looking for to come through this and to close above it. And in that case, I will be looking at this as likely a one and a two is a flat and then a three headed up here. You know, that's gonna that's gonna freak people out. People are really bearish. They really thinking it has to go down lower. But as you notice, where are we getting caught here on

the daily the same place, right? The same point here where we've been holding support. And recently here, the last couple of times it's kind of hit this area, wick down below, but closing back above it. So still watching this play out. We do have the possibility it could come down a bit lower here, but nothing actually in the price action of volume

suggesting that this is distribution right now. So, you know, until that actually shows up, I don't have a reason to be like, oh my God, it's the end of the world. It's the top's end and whatever. So that's kind up, I don't have a reason to be like, oh, my God, it's the end of the world. It's the tops in and whatever. So that's kind of where I'm at with Bitcoin. You mean you're not horribly bearish in support? No, no.

Yeah. Getting slaughtered online, you know, because I'm not overly bearish. But, you know, again, when I when I speak online, generally I speak in more macro terms. I speak on the daily or the weekly time frames. A lot of people are addicted to the 15 minute timeframe. So anytime it moves there opposite of what you're thinking, oh my God, you're so wrong. Right. But you know, people need to pay attention to the timeframes and the charts that are being spoken about because, you know, it doesn't make any sense,

right? Who cares what's happening on the hourly if it's not affecting really the daily at the end of the day. It's a short week. We've got, and I think a lot of people miss this point, right, who cares what's happening on the hourly if it's not affecting really the daily at the end of the day? It's a short week. And I think a lot of people miss this point, right? So we've got our July 4th holiday tomorrow, which effectively gives TradFi two Fridays this week. I've been saying this a lot. And anybody that knows the TradFi world knows that on Fridays anyway, it's generally slow. There's not a lot of volume. People have checked out either physically or mentally already for the weekend. And so what

do we have this week? We have that happening on Friday, of course, but we have it happening today as well because tomorrow's a holiday, which gave us really just two trading days, more or less, which was Monday and Tuesday. So I was talking about, you know, the fact that we'd have light volume coming this week across the markets, which is what it's been. And that does include crypto, you know, whether people want to, you know, accept it or like it or not. The fact is TradFi is really involved in crypto. And, you know, there's a lot of volume that comes from them. And if they're, if they're enjoying the beach, as Matt was talking about there, you know, if they're enjoying the beach, they're enjoying the beach

they're not you're not going to get a whole lot of volume out of here which means you might get a bit more movement because there isn't all that volume to to come in and counteract whatever's going on somebody might try and take advantage of it but um for right now that's kind of where we're sitting so um that's where we're at there alt's kind of taking a little a little bit of a hit today i'm seeing a lot of nobody wants to hear it i saw i said it yesterday and then it went down a little more but i'm seeing a lot of oversold conditions on alts finally too after a very long time and a lot of potential bullish divergence yeah those weeklies continue to look great i've been talking about the last few weeks here um you know it's not not an instant backup, right? But it's a process. And I think they're all generally looking pretty well. We talked about the altcoin market cap chart,

the altcoin dominance chart, and how we were getting a bounce off the S1 pivot on the weekly there. And so it does look like they've probably bottomed, or like I said at the time, or very likely so. And so it just kind of takes a bit to kind, like I said at the time, or very likely so. And so it just kind of takes a bit to kind of work its way through, you know, the daily and then the hourly and all that. Market closed Friday. No, I see somebody just say it real quick. No, markets closed tomorrow. Yeah, markets open.

You get a half day today and you get Friday, but not Thursday. Hence the two Fridays, basically. Yeah. Yeah. And jobs date on Friday as well. Yeah. Which was really interesting. Um, so if we look here at render on the daily, uh, you know, we had a nice rally off the swing low here, back up, um, up into, you know, again, really once you learn how to reach

out, it really makes a lot of sense where we're kind of getting that, you know, that move right, right to that previous resistance there. Um, and we've got a pullback here. Now, what I'm looking for is one of two things. If we break down lower here, I'm looking to get maybe a wick down into the S1 pivot here on the daily, which is right around $5.92. That'd be a nice tip. I would love to see that. But if not, if not, and we break out again impulsively with the, with the close above the, this daily pivot pivot here right around, what is that? Right around $8.40. I'm going to take that as a long and look for it to rally back up into the top of the range here and likely break out higher.

So that's just kind of what I'm looking at here. Either break down through the swing low, break down or break out above and impulsive break breakout above and close above the pivot there to kind of tell us either s1 pivot or top of the range up here and then further out so not a bad looking chart there i would love to get that move down there though seriously it would be uh yeah it's also kind of aligned with that huge wick on the left yeah exactly exactly yeah uh i've got a ton here. We've got this interesting support going on. If we lose this support and we close below this pivot here, we should be looking right around that S1 pivot on this daily here to look for a reversal off there. If we can get a reversal off there and break back out above the pivot, then we're likely headed up. And at that point, I would look at least at the R3 pivot here, $10.61. But based on us just going through this, probably even up here, secondary target up here around $12.90 at the R5 pivot here on the daily.

But yeah, I mean, you know, basically you've got all this consolidation up here toward this, you know, this kind of resistance area we're trying to push through. So I could see a bit of a pullback, but if we do, if we do break out higher again, still kind of continuing to look up there toward that R3 pivot either way. But I don't know. I'm looking here. Just wait to see if we do get that breakdown and close below the pivot to maybe get a move to the S1. Kind of like on render and be able to get a buy for the rally higher.

Yeah. Let me see here. Maker. Maker has got an interesting looking wedge here, descending wedge. I'm not a big, as you know, I'm not a big fan when price action doesn't flow strongly between some you know resistance and support It's just kind of hovering here around the middle of the wedge. So I'm a bit cautious about it But that being said I'm looking for an impulsive breakout above this descending resistance impulsive breakout and close if we can get that

Initially looking for a target up here around 3166 or so, and then looking for it to continue up here toward 37, whoops, 3749 or so right up there as we get it. So that's what I'm waiting for on that. As far as maker goes, we'll see if we get it. Again, if it's pulling down further, you know, the S1 pivot provides that support area. We'll look and see if we can get a rally off that and a move back up.

We got Pepe because everybody still likes Pepe, right? Pepe is looking quite... Give us a bigger zoom in. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah, thanks. Yeah. It's looking pretty all right at the moment here we're getting this move down we've got these kind of wicks down here into this fair value gap that we

had um i could potentially see it coming down here again to the s1 pivot you see this kind of thing going on this this narrative through all of them uh that would be down there around 917 i could potentially see that but what i like about this one, the other ones, the Stoke RSI on the daily was, you know, was up here and overbought. This one we're about to hit oversold and RSI is about to hit oversold. So I could definitely see this coming down here toward the S1 pivot. And if it does, I would be paying attention, looking for some kind of setup that happens off there, a reason to go long, but ultimately looking for the breakout and impulsive breakout and close above that descending resistance. If we do that, we should be good to go just based off the height right here.

We should be up there at least around 2452. If we're pulling down a little bit further, it'll pull that target up a bit more but yeah um if we can get that impulsive breakout and close above that descending resistance i'll be looking up there toward that r5 r4 pivot area so um again i mean people would go nuts i mean people would lose their minds well i don't know does anybody even get excited about pepe anymore it seems like they threw him out with the yesterday's garbage, you know? I mean, they were so excited about him. He doesn't have a hat. He's not bonking around, I guess. So people are like, uh, uh, let me see here. We got AR here. We've got a nice range forming. Um, again, you know, same thing. We're kind of sitting here between that daily pivot and

S1. Uh, again, like the other one showing you, we did have, you know, we are overbought here on the Stoke RSI. So what I'm looking for is if we can get that, again, impulsive breakout and close above the pivot, initial target is the top of the range. So that should be, you know, that's right there around, oh, what is that? Right there around 32.65 or so. And that'll give us a target up here. I'd probably, yeah, I'd put it right there around $47.40. And if we do hit that, by the way, the odds are we're going to break out and head higher. Yeah, so I'll just leave it at that right now.

That'd be the local kind of target area I'd be looking at on that. But if it does break down, again, I could see a move down here to that s1 pivot There's a nice low volume node area. You can see again be in this Fair value gap here s1 pivot. I mean, it's a great setup. Once again would love to actually buy it here At that what is that $18 and 42 cent area? And then you know look for that nice move and rally up higher. But that would give us basically a spring below this trading range here to send us up. Let me see here. And finally, I've got TRX USDT for anybody that's still trading this. Again, we've got this ascending support coming up. We've rallied up into the R1 pivot

as we're coming in sideways here. So if we can get a rejection and a close below that, below this support, I would look for it to pull back to the pivot, which is right around, where is that? 12 cents or so. And I'd look for it to reverse off that and head on up toward the top of the range here. Uh, immediate target right there around $14. I'm sorry, 14 cents, 14.2 cents. Uh, but again, once you're getting up there, the odds are that you're going to break out higher overall and continue up. So I'm just looking for that breakdown here. Uh, but I'm not interested in shorting. I don't, don't do a lot of that, you know, especially in the bull market. I would be looking to long around that pivot area to get it going there. Again, alts right now, weeklies look great.

Dailies look like they may need a little bit of a pullback, a little bit further pullback, most of them. But at the end of the day, looking pretty decent, I think, as we continue to talk about. So, yeah. I like it. I like i like it lines with what i'm thinking i mean just at the bottom of the range it sucks okay whatever well but you know when everybody gets embarrassed down there and then uh you know price ends up going up and then they're all upset that they didn't actually get in when it was down there and you know it's rinse and repeat yep every single time well i guess we'll

see uh see what happens this time guys follow tx west capital on x check out all his channels and shows of course as well and his group because you can actually learn a lot man thank you so much appreciate it man guys uh we will not see you for the next couple days because of the holiday but uh this afternoon i think think Wick will be here. So we should have that. But I'll keep you updated. Maybe we'll do one or two this week. We'll see.

All right, guys. Thank you very much. Chris, thanks. See you guys soon. Bye. Let's go.