The Wolf Of All Streets - $150K Bitcoin | Will Bitcoin Double In Price After The Halving? | Mike Alfred

Starting point is 00:00:00 Bitcoin made a new all-time high live on this show yesterday, breaking just above $69,000 before dropping $10,000 in a single daily candle to $59,300 and then popping back up halfway. Guys, you know that you're in a bull market when you see $10,000 daily candles that get bought up on huge volume, and you see things like Ethereum outperforming on that bounce. I've got one of my favorite guests today, Mike Alfred. You guys have seen him here a million times. And I don't think there's a better person to have here to talk about this fresh all-time high in Bitcoin, what's going on, how to handle miners, of course, and the equity side of the

Starting point is 00:00:46 crypto space in context of everything we're seeing happen here. Can't wait to get this one going. Of course, we also have Texas West Capital on the back half. Let's go. Mike, first of all, congratulations on surviving the bear market of yesterday. It wasn't as hard as moving into a new house with a baby, I'll tell you that. I do notice you have a distinctly different background here today, and I appreciate you showing up because I know that you've got a lot going on. What do you make of this? We saw this bounce up above the all-time high, 69,300300 or so immediately dropped. Strong echoes of what we saw last time we broke an all-time high, actually. We saw Bitcoin go above 20,000, I think retraced immediately 16%, and then off to the races. I mean, from my view, it effectively touched the previous all-time high. It didn't really surpass it. I think the miners were sort of questioning the move the whole way.

Starting point is 00:02:07 I don't think it's just the ETF stealing flows or just the halving. I think the miners have been somewhat predictive of price movements. I think when Bitcoin's about to rip through that 69.3, 69.4 level and go to 70 or 75, the miners will participate. That'll be kind of a key signal. But obviously, Scott, every time leverage builds up in the system, it just systematically gets washed out. Wherever there's weakness, it gets squeezed out. And I think that's all we saw. It's a run of the mill Bitcoin correction. I think people forget from TradFi who come in that Bitcoin is not like the traditional market. There hasn't historically been this systematic flow environment like you

Starting point is 00:02:51 get from 401k plans, putting money into the S&P. There isn't a Federal Reserve to come in and save everybody every time somebody gets over levered and makes a mistake and becomes systemically important to the system such that if it breaks the whole system could go down bitcoin in particular and the rest of the crypto ecosystem is far too decentralized there's no single actor controlling it and so it trades like a real free market unlike some of these other things so again i put a tweet up yesterday you know i occasionally like to troll a little bit just for fun. But I said, look, like it's fascinating watching the newbies coming in who are shocked by a run of the mill Bitcoin correction. The cost of the long term return in Bitcoin is volatility.

Starting point is 00:03:37 If you don't embrace volatility, you will not make exceptional returns in markets in general, but particularly in this asset class. Totally agree. You talked about the Bitcoin, the liquidations. We saw roughly a billion in liquidations. Actually quite an even mix at some point between longs and shorts, but of course it ended up being primarily longs that got liquidated. Ran actually pointed out on our X Spaces yesterday that funding rates were exceptionally high, almost historically high on that eight-hour period right before it happened, and even more excessive with altcoins. So that's an opportunity that's going to be taken every single time by some whale who wants to take advantage of that cascade. But on the flip side, as you were kind of talking about miners there,

Starting point is 00:04:22 we saw that miners cashed out, or they're saying that, right? And you made that point as well. We saw coins moving from 2010 that were dumped right as it hit the all-time high. Some people were saying it was Richard Hart. I have my doubts, but it looks like it was miners as the on-chain analysts start to snoop and figure out what was happening here. So do you think that was just an exceptional time to take some profit for some of these guys? I'm sure there's going to be a reason that is bandied about after the fact. But the reality is when you hit a psychological level like 69.3, 69.4, which represented the previous all-time highs, there's going to be selling at that level by somebody. And so I don't think it matters so much. I think the question that I had and which

Starting point is 00:05:12 has almost already been answered is how quickly would Bitcoin recover? I think it's notable that Ethereum recovered in under 12 hours and went to a new 52-week high right away. And that tells me a number of things, but one of the most important things is that we are in a true crypto-wide bull market now. And so it's not just Bitcoin that's running, but I do think Bitcoin will retest those levels probably within the next week again, if not in the next few days. And so if you are waiting for that, I don't think you'll have to wait very long. Back to the Ethereum thing, though, just for a second. As we've talked about before, I think the last show that I was on here, I think it was the end of last year, I recommended the Grayscale Ethereum Trust. And at the time, it was trading at 18.

Starting point is 00:06:03 I think it's going to open today at whatever, like 32. I had 250,000 shares. I trimmed just a little bit around the edges just as it passed over 30 and 31. So I trimmed just below the levels I think where it'll open this morning. So I'm at 200,000 shares. But that looks like the strongest trade going forward on a risk-adjusted basis. Sort of like when I came on here in the spring of last year and I said, hands down, GBTC is the trade of the year. I said that in the early spring, when it wasn't quite accepted as consensus at that time. And of course, GBTC wildly outperformed Bitcoin last year.

Starting point is 00:06:39 Ethereum looks like it's going to outperform Bitcoin at this part of the cycle. And in particular, I think that Ethereum trust will be used as a speculative vehicle for people betting on the ETF. And whether the ETF happens or not, you could see that thing go from 30 to 60 quite quickly. And I also just don't see a lot of downside. Every time it goes down a little bit, it gets bought back up again. So I still really like that trade. It's one of my largest positions personally right now outside of Bitcoin. And I think it'll continue to do well. I just literally filed my card for my re-membership into the Bitcoin Maximalist Society. And I know you had yours filed as well.

Starting point is 00:07:18 And I think you just got us both rejected. Yeah, I've been rejected since 2021, I think late 2021, when I didn't pay for Peter McCormick's stake. We've since become friendly again, but it turns out there are a lot of things you got to watch out for to make sure you don't get rejected from the maximalist society. But as we've talked about before, I'm largely unconcerned with like maxi cultural stuff. I don't think that matters at all to making money in the long run. In fact, I think the more religious and dogmatic you are, the less likely you are to be able to think clearly throughout a full cycle. And I think that's required in this space.

Starting point is 00:08:00 Yeah. I mean, as we were talking about right before, you can even be a Bitcoin maximalist or a believer in Bitcoin as the most important asset ever created of all time and still really enjoy making money trading the rest of this stuff. It's fine. I don't think most people will, though. So that's where I differ a little bit with the kind of people who love trading crypto. I generally think that 90% of people will lose money doing that relative to just a core holding, long-term holding strategy. And that could include Ethereum. It might even include Solana, like in kind of an 80-20 or 70-20-10 type of methodology where you're just indexing to the things that have proven to have staying power. I do think most people will do better, especially after taxes, by just holding.

Starting point is 00:08:50 Because I see people who are like, yeah, I bought it at 20 and I sold it at 40 and now it's 35 and they're celebrating. And then a few months later, it's 60 and they didn't get back in. There was a long tweet thread from this guy called Venture Founder who basically called the bottom but managed to miss the entire move anyway. And so I think people tend to just get a little bit too cute in this market. I was on your show like, I don't know, three or four or five times last year. And every single time I said, buy Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin, hold Bitcoin. We're at 25, we're going to 40. We're at 28, we're going to 40. We're going to be 40 or 45 before the having it turns out i was wrong um we're going to be potentially at 75 uh yeah that same i mean yeah not being not bullish enough

Starting point is 00:09:33 though is where you want to see on this be on the side of uh wrong prediction i don't know but almost directly correct but don't nail the number who Who cares? Almost nobody got that right because it was quite popular, especially in the middle parts of last year to be bearish. Then we had the summertime malaise where Bitcoin just traded down. It just did nothing from like July until September, October timeframe. And I remember coming on your show in August and saying, look, there's going to be a big move. I don't know exactly when, but it's probably going to retest 25 and then go to 40. And so here we are, we're at 66, we're in change. We're probably, if we don't see another large pullback, we're probably just going to march right back to all-time highs. If we break all-time highs, then we're in price discovery.

Starting point is 00:10:22 And if we go into that area before the halving and there's no macro event and the dollar starts to trade down, I mean, it's possible we could be at $90,000 Bitcoin by the halving. I just think people are too bearish still. And it's not too late, right? Because there's no retail interest still from the vast majority of the retail public. I talked to a commercial electrician a few weeks ago at 43K and he didn't even charge us for the work because I spent 20 minutes coaching him on Bitcoin. And then I saw him a week or two later and said, did you buy any Bitcoin? He said, no, what's it at now? I said, it's at 51. He said, 51? Wasn't it just at 43? I said, yeah, well, he probably still hasn't bought it at 67, right? But he'll buy it at 90. He'll buy it at 90 or 110 or 150 or whatever, right?

Starting point is 00:11:08 And that's just kind of the way things go in markets. Yeah, I think a lot of people have been surprised by how we've sort of preempted the halving cycle. You know, people expecting the current prices maybe at the end of this year instead of now. I think it does really put us in a different position. If the title says 150K Bitcoin, simply will Bitcoin double in price after the halving? Well, we have a lot of people now calling for 150. I think that's exceptionally conservative. Exceptionally conservative.

Starting point is 00:11:37 I'm talking about cycle highs being 150. And we've seen, I showed the tweets yesterday, but we've seen this history of effectively breaking an all-time high and within 18, 20, 30 days being at double that all-time high. I don't necessarily think that's going to happen. I pointed out that nobody talks about the 65 top when we then went to 69. We didn't exactly double. We went back to 15. So it doesn't be history or repeat itself, but we do have some precedent of huge gains when we go into price discovery. Yeah, I think the problem is it's such a reflexive asset that it's hard to imagine the levels it'll go to until it gets close to those levels. And because of its reflexivity, as it goes up, it's more likely to go up more.

Starting point is 00:12:23 It doesn't mean revert in the same way that a lot of other assets do. And we have different dynamics this cycle because we have like $7 or $8 billion of trading volume in the ETFs all of a sudden. So as it gets closer to 100, it'll be quite obvious to people that, wait a second, it got to 100 so easily. Maybe 200 is not that hard. And then if it gets to 200, it'll be like, should I be calling for 300 or 400? It was the same thing that happened last spring when people didn't want to talk about 40 at 25 because they were so worried it was going back to 18 or 22. And then when it got to 40, it was like, wait a second, maybe you can go to 50. And people keep reframing their expectations as the market moves. I think

Starting point is 00:13:06 the hard part is to think through that with multiple steps ahead in mind and then sort of call out like a realistic number in advance. And that's why I started, you know, a few months ago, started talking about 300K because I think that's kind of a level psychologically. It's a kind of a level mathematically. Like if you look at the rate of change of Bitcoin across multiple previous cycles, when you look at how much it draws down and then how much it multiplies after each drawdown, I think that kind of 300, 320, 350 area might come quicker than people think. And people are afraid to call out those types of numbers and they want to look conservative, right? Because if you're Tom Lee and you're going to go on CNBC

Starting point is 00:13:49 and you call out 300K, you might actually look kind of crazy to TradFi. So you call out 150 and once it gets to 150, then you raise your targets. The same thing analysts do in the equity market. But I think in this market, you've got to be a little bit more aggressive. And I think if you're talking to an audience of people who actually understands Bitcoin, they're largely not worried about 200, 300. They know it's coming. It's just a question of when. We have an article here. I'm going to bring it up because my site is no longer shared. Bitcoin miners are better bets than the actual tokens, Bernstein says. Do you still believe that that might be the case here with miners? I know I kind of heard you talking about

Starting point is 00:14:29 them as leverage bets, but we have seen downside on them while we've seen Bitcoin pumping, which has been a bit strange. It's one of the biggest questions that I think we have to answer this cycle. The phrase better bet, I would ask Bernstein to clarify what they mean. Because I think on a risk-adjusted basis, the simplest bet is just long Bitcoin, long ETH, which is what I've been saying for years and what's working right now with the least amount of headache. In terms of total return, though, it is totally possible from right here looking forward a year or right here looking forward 18 months that miners crush the spot price. I'm actually surprised that we're able to still buy some of these names at their current price. I'll call out Cypher in particular. I'm wearing their sweatshirt right now. They reported earnings yesterday. They reported a gap profit, like net profit, even at only 7x a hash, about 10.6 million, I think it was.

Starting point is 00:15:27 This is an EBITDA. This is actual gap net income according to generally accepted accounting principles. And they were able to do that in this environment without even a change in the FASB accounting treatment. So a lot of the miners are now saying, look, we're profitable, but a lot of that is like the recategorization of their Bitcoin on their balance sheet to show gains, which then shows a profit as they market up. Cypher was able to do just on a purely operating basis. And I think what that says is there's a tremendous amount of operating leverage built into that business in particular, but the market just right now is so afraid of the having, right? It's so afraid of a date about 38, 39 days out from now where those rewards get cut in half.

Starting point is 00:16:13 And it's not seeing past that to an environment where the best run scale miners are going to be just as profitable, maybe more profitable post having, because there's going to be a lot of uneconomic cash that comes off. So I think what you're seeing is maybe 30 or 40 more days of a buying opportunity for an 18-month hold. I guess I could have foreseen or predicted the challenge with the miners, as you saw in December, is if you try to get too cute with them as well, you try to wait until it's really obvious they're going up, They've already gone up 300%. You saw that with CleanSpark and BitFarms and Iris in a few weeks in mid-November to the end of the year, they spiked. I think that's going to happen again, but I think the next time they spike, it'll be larger. I think it'll be sustained through

Starting point is 00:17:00 whatever the end of this cycle is. And so bitcoin 3x is from here i do think the best miners will 10x um and so i i still think it's a great bet i think you got to focus on the balance sheet first because they're quite volatile so if you um you know are buying miners that could go to zero it's going to be hard to hold them when they go down i don't lose any sleep over the miners i hold because i know that they can generate profits through this full cycle. So I'm still a buyer here. That's still my largest exposure. I still like Cypher. I still like Iris, which is now Iron, where I'm on the board. I still like CleanSpark. I still like BitFarms. I think those four in particular are great operators. They've proven across time that they can run mining facilities with near 100% uptime and they're all growing uh into the cycle with superior economics relative to

Starting point is 00:17:50 like a lot of the subs and some of them own at one point you sort of broke it down before that they own the actual infrastructure as opposed to renting it and sometimes in the past that infrastructure has actually been worth more than the entire market cap of the stock. Yeah. Back in November when I came on here, Iris was just starting to move up from the high twos. And it went from there to 10, right? It tapped 10 pre-market sometime in December. So that was a clean 3X in like a month and a half. But that's the kind of movement you get in these names. But I don't own Iris because I want it to 3x in three weeks or something. I don't own Cypher for that. I own them because I think they're actually great asset bases to hold across a full cycle. I just

Starting point is 00:18:37 think you're buying a really high quality business with hard physical assets that are highly levered to the price of Bitcoin. And while you don't see that in the short term because of technical factors, I think you will see it through the next 12 to 18 months. And so the halving will come and go. And what you'll see in April and May and June is the best companies in the space like Iron and Cypher are going to continue to print profits and cashflow in that environment and the stocks will get marked back up. So again- What's the mining floor right now? I mean, at what point would these guys effectively be unprofitable? I mean, we always kind of have a general idea of what that price would be. Is it

Starting point is 00:19:14 sub 50? Is it sub 40? I mean, are they so profitable at the moment with these prices at this point? Cantor did an analysis, which I'll just rely on their numbers so that I may keep it nice and clean. But essentially all the ones I mentioned are profitable at 45K post-having. So at 60 something thousand, and again, this is without assuming any major increases in transaction cost, any other sources of revenue, et cetera. So I think, again, the having fear is partially justified by the fact that there are some subscale miners and there are some indebted miners that might have problems, but it's not any of the large public ones, like the top five or six.

Starting point is 00:20:00 And so they're being punished right now. And in part because they're diluting the stocks in the short term, right? Like everybody's making sure they have a war chest for growth. But once that's over, they're just going to rip in the back half of this year. What I find interesting is that usually at the halving, we have this sort of 20%, 30% correction after the halving. And people sort of attribute that to miners selling to make sure that they have enough runway to survive the summer and get to the halving pump that six months later, right now at these prices, the dynamic should theoretically be completely different, right? I mean, with Bitcoin trading at $67,000 in advance of the halving, the selling pressure should be much less. I don't know if that will hold for a month,

Starting point is 00:20:41 but the selling pressure should be much less. I think the big difference, Scott, structurally is that the miners have way more capital on their balance sheets going into the halving. Marathon and Riot have just raised like half a billion to a billion dollars. They just expanded their ATMs. The other ones I mentioned, Cypher, Iron, they all have at least 100, 150 million of current liquidity. And so there's no need to go nuts. If you do have balance sheet Bitcoin, there's no need to go nuts selling it. And so I just don't see where the Bitcoin is going to come from on the sell side of the order book because the miners' ability to sell goes down algorithmically in mid-April. Their desire to sell is near zero at the moment.

Starting point is 00:21:30 And then you've got a natural buyer that's in the market every single day right now. So structurally, it's about as bullish as it gets. Before I let you go, we got to talk about that because BlackRock's iBit spot Bitcoin ETF hits record daily inflow of 788 million yesterday. What's notable here is that many people would assume that a major dip in Bitcoin price would mean outflows, right? People panic. They see Bitcoin drop from 69 to 59. They immediately sell. Of course, that would, I guess, be the next day or something. But record daily inflows while Bitcoin is effectively dropping or having 10,000 daily volatility. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's funny. Only Peter Schiff

Starting point is 00:22:13 would try to make the argument that Bitcoin going down is bad for the ETF. And he did on my Twitter spaces yesterday. He dropped in and all of a sudden we went from 800 people to 2000. Preston Pyshko Up is bad, down is bad. I've had the conversation with him. There's no situation in his mind that could possibly convince him of anything otherwise. Even calling the asset a scam, take that out, decide. Even price action, he can't agree. Up is bad, down is bad. Robert Leonard That's just not the way these institutional investors operate. Once they decide to make an allocation, they make an allocation. And if it goes down, they add more. And so I think it's the opposite of what he's saying.

Starting point is 00:22:52 I think the ETFs are going to make Bitcoin structurally much stronger. There's going to be a bid. I've called it the BlackRock hand of God for almost a year now. I think that bid is structurally going to be there for the remainder of this bull market. And yes, on the back end of that, people will sell the ETF as a way to get out of Bitcoin, but they'll be doing that at three times or five times the current price. And you'll have plenty of warning. Usually you'll have some topping sign during that process. But right now is not the time to be bearish on Bitcoin. Just because

Starting point is 00:23:26 it pulled back 10K off of all-time highs or near all-time highs, it's going to retest that. Maybe today. The way things are going, it'll just bounce right back up and retest it later today. We'll see. I mean, we're over 67,000. That's literally where we were effectively at this time yesterday before it just kind of slowly pushed up through 69. Amazing to see that flush. And I just want to reiterate to people, there's nothing in the world that could possibly convince me at this moment that we're in any sort of bearish scenario and dips are just for buying. And for people who are looking at altcoins and Ethereum, for example, even I know, listen, you called the top of Solana here to the day, right? That first one, it went from, you said 130 as a short, it went to 70.

Starting point is 00:24:06 It's back up there now, but I mean, literally cut almost in half at that point. And I said it was a short term, to be clear. I said it was short term, but I think eventually the cycle goes to whatever it goes to, 500, 1,000, et cetera. Yeah, you said that very clearly. I don't want to say that you were being, you just said that was a top, right? And it was, but I mean, yesterday you could have bought Solana at 105 bucks. Yeah. And then it was as high as 134 today. I mean, Bitcoin drops 10%. You have a 30% opportunity in a bull market on some of these

Starting point is 00:24:34 other assets. I think, look, my highest level point is that everybody in TradFi, everybody, all retail effectively is short this asset class. They don't have enough exposure. They got scared out in 17, 18. They got scared out in 21, 22. And I think this is the cycle where people realize once and for all, this is a permanent part of an intelligent asset allocation. It has to be part of your portfolio. And if that's the case where everybody has to have some exposure, because you still have all these old guys who sit around on LinkedIn and pretend that equities and bonds are the only asset class other than real estate. That I think is going away. I think that'll go away this cycle. And that means two or 300K Bitcoin in my mind is coming.

Starting point is 00:25:22 Yeah. I mean, to that, Chris was here. I think he had having technical trouble. Do you have like two or three more minutes? I can always stay. Okay, great. Because I literally wrote about this this morning and it seems to have gone unnoticed because of all the price action. But BlackRock has filed an amendment with the SEC to integrate Bitcoin exposure into one of its funds, which is BSIIX, the strategic income opportunity, the potential of the BlackRock's and Fidelity's and everyone else's of the world starting to passively add these to their funds once this gets approved is even bigger than the ETF approvals. And I always joke, you have all these people who hate Bitcoin. Okay. But you have people who hate Tesla or who hate Meta or who hate

Starting point is 00:26:02 Mark Zuckerberg and they can't stand Elon Musk. I would never buy their stock. I hate to tell you guys, if you have exposure to the market, you're massively exposed to all these stocks. If you own a mutual fund, if you own anything, if you're passively investing, that's going to be the case with Bitcoin when these start to get approved. And imagine it's one thing for BlackRock to be buying Bitcoin because they have to fulfill the demand for an ETF, which are retail or institutional purposes. It's a whole other thing when BlackRock is literally filling their funds with Bitcoin or Bitcoin adjacent stocks. That's why when people say BlackRock owns 15% of MicroStrategy or whatever that number is, they didn't do that actively. That's a passive investing strategy that's part of these funds. Yeah. I've been hammering this point

Starting point is 00:26:44 for a long time, Scott, because in my previous career, I was the CEO of Brightscope. And Brightscope is like the morning star of 401k plans. We publish ratings on every plan. And one of the things you notice when you look closely at 401k plans is how much of the money just automatically goes into target date funds. Those are like the Fidelity Freedom 2045 fund and the Fidelity Freedom 2050 fund. And if you've never been an employee, then you won't be as familiar with this. But for most people who are listening to this stream, they've had a 401k plan at some point and you're defaulted into these options.

Starting point is 00:27:16 These options automatically adjust your equity and bond exposure over time, hypothetically to make it safer for you, which didn't actually work, by the way, the last few years, because bonds were in some ways riskier than equities. But just imagine if Fidelity and BlackRock and some of these firms who have target date products just put a 5% allocation or a 10% allocation into every aggressive portfolio and every portfolio that has a 2050 or 2060 target date, you're going to have all these people who don't even know or care that they own Bitcoin who just automatically get defaulted in. They automatically have 6% of their paycheck going into it every two weeks.

Starting point is 00:27:55 That's where this is headed. And the ETF unlocks the first step of that. It does not unlock creating a 40-act mutual fund vehicle that goes into a traditional target date fund and a traditional 401k plan. But trust me, it's one step removed in that Fidelity already offers spot Bitcoin directly to plan sponsors that want it. But I don't think offering it to plan sponsors is the solution. The answer is to just plug it into a target date fund, make it the default option, and don't even tell old people,

Starting point is 00:28:25 right? Don't tell 50 and 60-year-olds they own Bitcoin. Just tell them they own the right asset allocation. And so that's where this is heading. And when that happens, the price is just going to be a lot higher, right? By the time everybody realizes they own Bitcoin through the back door, the price will just be a lot higher than it is today. Yeah. And we talked about it a couple weeks ago, but in Canada, Fidelity Canada, which is slightly a separate company, obviously, I mean, even in their conservative funds, they're adding exposure to Bitcoin. It's only 1%. But you said, in the most aggressive, I think we get to the point where it's even the completely passive conservative,

Starting point is 00:29:00 and you just don't know it's there. And it's 1%. And that puts Bitcoin at hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of thousands of dollars. Yep. That's where we're headed. And the problem, like I said earlier, is that so many people predicted 100K last cycle got egg on their face, but it was a totally different set of dynamics when those predictions were made. And so people get tied to absolute numbers. They don't want to call for numbers over 100K because they saw people get burned by making the call before. But this time around a hundred K is like table stakes. Like we'll hit a hundred K this year and we might even hit 200 K this year. Right? Like, and if we do, then we might hit 300 K or 400 K this cycle. And those numbers are not like insane

Starting point is 00:29:39 at all because of the structural dynamics and how different they are. Well, I would like to, you know, Mike, that you are hired to replace me and run my shows in the future, because when I have a power outage, clearly you can hold it down. You went over time because I just heard that Chris in Texas also had a power outage, but he is also back. I'm in Florida. He's in Texas. What's going on here? I don't know, Mike, but thank you so much. Everybody guys follow Mike Alfred. I believe it's at Mike Alfred on X, correct? Yes. Anywhere else you'd want them to check out anything else?

Starting point is 00:30:09 No, this is the first show I've even done this year. I haven't done anything. I'm just hiding out in a bunker. Well, let's make it more regular, okay? All right. Always appreciate you, man. Thanks for getting up early for us. All right.

Starting point is 00:30:21 Talk to you later, Scott. Awesome. I'm not sure we have many guests who could just see me disappear and then continue on for minutes. There was no beat missed. I really think that maybe he should just replace me. I think that'd be easier. So Chris, I heard that you also had a power outage. Is that true? Yeah, man. I logged in to get ready for the show here and poof, went out. And then I couldn't get logged back in i kept trying and it kept telling me that it wasn't uh recognizing the the video and audio so but here we are here we are persevered yeah so what do you so listen we had a wild wild wild day yesterday yeah i say we broke the all-time high a

Starting point is 00:31:01 lot of people saying it was a double top, whatever, candle didn't close, bullshit. It went above 69,000. There is a price print above the all-time high. It broke the all-time high. It happens here live and in person, right? And then straight to 59. And then back to 64 immediately. And man, what a good time that was, right?

Starting point is 00:31:20 And this is, to me, this is like hallmark of when crypto gets really exciting, extremely bullish, is that you just get insane volatility. Oh, yeah. And that's going to be, you know, exasperated this time around with all the the ETF flows and whatnot. Yesterday, banger day for the ETFs, man. I think it was the greatest volume, even more than their first day. iBit, man, iBit just keeps on raking it in. Absolutely stupid how much they're pulling in so quickly, not even two months in now. And so, you know, Fidelity doing well as well. I like seeing Bitwise on there. So, you know, it's money coming in, guys. You know, it's money coming in. Yes, price still went down. But, you know, again, ETFs aren't just the only part, right. They're, they're one part of the whole thing as far as pricing goes. But what we should look at is in spite of the selling that went on, you know, um, this is what we got. Right. And remember guys, ETFs buy once a day,

Starting point is 00:32:20 they buy after, you know, at the end of the day, day there after everything's done. They don't just sit there and buy and sell all during the day. So they do one order at the end of the day. So if you get selling throughout the day, you're not going to see, even if that ETF inflow is positive, you're not going to see that reflected until after they start buying again at the end of the day. So just some new market dynamics that are happening now with the ETFs that we didn't have in the previous, you know, 14 years. So, yeah, it's slightly different. You know, you say the most dangerous forwards in investing this time. It's different, right, Sir John Templeton.

Starting point is 00:32:57 But this time is a little different with the ETF. Yeah. I mean, when you have these steady flows and they're transparent, we always have this speculation as to what's happening in Bitcoin and what's happening in crypto. We see exactly how much of this is being bought. Yeah. I mean, people are still going to find ways to be fearful about it. Again, human emotion is that thing. It's what makes us human is our emotions, but it's also what wrecks us consistently as traders or investors. Even, you know, uh, you get a little nervous when price moves, uh, especially if it moves like, uh, you know, like crypto, like Bitcoin does, you know,

Starting point is 00:33:33 you get these sudden drops of 10% plus or whatever within, you know, an hour or something. But, uh, you know, once you've been in the market a few years, you should become much more accustomed to it. Or, you know, maybe that's just me saying, cause I understand how markets work. Uh, you know, it's been a long time since I've been a new trader, but, uh, I do remember the fear. I remember the fear when you first start out and you don't know what's going on. You don't know what you're doing. You don't know how to trade it. And you, you know, you kind of ape in hoping, uh, that price goes up for the minute you entered. You don't ever want it to go right.? You don't even want like one cent lower, right?

Starting point is 00:34:05 You want it to go up the minute you get in. But that isn't usually how it works, unfortunately. Yeah, I do want to dig into your five charts. I just want to answer a question for someone really quick. How can you see funding rates, says Mike here. It's just a good question. So I can show you guys because I use a tool. It's free.

Starting point is 00:34:20 Well, now it's not even coming up, of course. But it's called CoinGlass, right? You can also go to an individual exchange. Usually, if you looked at CoinBat, here we go. So you can see the funding rates right here. It's still really high, actually, 0.05. These are the funding rates. So people are still exceptionally long.

Starting point is 00:34:33 We get the aggregated funding rates. You can look here at liquidations and open interest. This is where we get all this data. So not a shill, but CoinGlass.com, free tool for funding rates and stuff. Let's dig into your charts now since I know we started a little late. Yeah, man. I originally talked about the idea that I had this alternate account that said 1, 2, and it gave us a minimum expected wave 3 at around 75,000, 77,000.

Starting point is 00:34:59 And based on that now and what's going on, it looks like that wave three is actually overextending. It looks like that wave three is actually going to target up there at about $171,000. So going back to what Mike was saying about how people are fearful of saying bigger numbers, you know, because especially if you're retail, right? If you're retail, generally you don't have this day-to-day experience of buying and selling things at 150, $200,000. So it seems emotionally like a very, very, like, how in the hell is it ever going to happen? It's crazy talk, you know, versus if it was maybe $500 or a thousand dollars or even 10,000. But, you know, until something goes different on here, I mean, this is what we're looking at. This is the extension. So right now I've been tweeting a bit about if we can get this break above the all uh above the all-time high there that 69 000 area

Starting point is 00:35:48 get some sustained movement through it that we're probably looking for a rally up here toward 100 000 and that's that wave three three three of three kind of thing going in there now i might have to get in here and readjust this as this is going on but right now it looks like it just wants to keep on going. And, um, if we look here, we came inside, we talked about this so many times, they keep showing itself. Uh, you come in sideways between the pivot and the R1 here, you're pulling back. You're not getting a pullback to the pivot. So if we can get this, uh, impulsive rally through the R2, we should expect to carry, you know, we should expect it to carry us up here through the R4,

Starting point is 00:36:31 you know, and potentially even the R5. And so when we look at that, that R4, just about that R4 gets us right there with that minimum expected this wave three that we're in. I want to show you something real quick, just in case you didn't see it, because I'm sure you did, but I want to show everybody because it's something Chris and I used to use all the time. But, and I pointed it out in my newsletter yesterday, even before the all-time high, I got a little euphoric myself watching it, of course, but we had very clear, very overbought bearish divergence with RSI on the daily, on the 12 hour, on the six hour, on the four hour, right? It was literally everywhere yesterday with RSI on the daily up coming out of 87, right? So now you're going to get probably hidden bullish divergence,

Starting point is 00:37:10 by the way, a higher low on price and a lower low on RSI. And we can stay overbought for a very long time. But this flush was well predicted by the most simple indicator that you once upon taught me that I've used as the core of my trading strategy ever since. Yeah. And I even posted a tweet there, I think the day before that I said, if we can get a rejection prior to that level we were at, I think it was like around 67, 68,000 to the all-time high, somewhere in there. I said, my preferred scenario was a pullback to like 59, 60,000. And then that would set up this move higher here and this is the count that kind of gets us there so this is what i'm watching right now uh i was on crypto town hall the other day and um they were asking you know what do you think as far as uh you know

Starting point is 00:37:57 do you think how long does it take to hit a hundred thousand and uh somebody else in there mentioned two months and i said yeah i said i think it's very likely we could see it within two months uh might even be quicker depending on I said, I think it's very likely we could see it within two months. Might even be quicker depending on it. We talked about before we have a big way as a habit of if it really goes into price discovery, doubling up very quickly. Right. So 100 from 70 is nothing. A 30, 50 percent move on Bitcoin is very small. So I want to talk about ETH.

Starting point is 00:38:20 I see you have it up there next. Mike just mentioned it before. I'm an ETH tard, I guess. Officially, I've been talking about it now. I see you have it up there next. Mike just mentioned it before. I'm an ETH tard, I guess, officially. I've been talking about it. Now it's been probably eight or nine months. I've been writing newsletters about it. I've been doing videos about it, saying that the fact that it's lagging is an opportunity, not an indictment. To be clear to people, I don't care if gas fees are high. I don't care if it's clunky. I'm talking about a trade. So it has nothing to do with your emotional view towards Ethereum. I don't know Vitalik Buterin, right? I don't get paid to push Ethereum.

Starting point is 00:38:51 I just think that it's pretty obvious that at a point in the cycle, that's going to happen. But as Mike said, I said on the ETF approval and the fake approval the day before by the SEC, Ethereum rocketed, not Bitcoin. And yesterday, Ethereum had a smaller dip and made a new high almost immediately, hours ago, before Bitcoin's even come back close to $69,000. Yeah. Yeah, you know, pent-up demand. You know, this is one I've been talking about the bottom potentially being in since June of 22 here, where we had this swing low. And, you know, just an accumulation here and this

Starting point is 00:39:28 pullback and this retest of that resistance area and then boom off to the races and so I haven't changed targets you know I've got this right now as a 1-2-1-2 minimum expected wave circle three targets this interior third wave at 46-26 so we had a target along the way at

Starting point is 00:39:44 35-47 which we've hit, still looking up there toward 4626 at least. And that gets us near that all time high there. So, you know, again, we have the telegraph. It's like we literally just watched what Bitcoin did with all the ETF hype. And we've seen Ethereum, you know, in 2017 or whatever year it was. I don't remember at this point, 20, whatever. And when Bitcoin made an all time high in December, that was in 2019, whatever it was, my brain's not working anymore. And then Ethereum absolutely skyrocketed for like a three or four X the next January. Right. I mean, we've seen this, whatever. We've seen this before. And I mean, there's this, Yeah. I mean, we've seen this, whatever we've seen this before. And I mean,

Starting point is 00:40:28 there's this, right. I mean, there's no resistance now left to the all-time high, right. We broke 35. If you're looking at like a larger timeframe chart, maybe you could call some little resistance here at like 41 or 48, 67 is the next really major level, even without your wave count. So I think that's where we're headed. Yeah. I mean, you know, and heaven forbid, it doesn't exactly reach where I'm looking at right away. But I mean, you know, I've been talking about this since I put in that wave circle too low there. So it's not like, you know, people weren't warned, you know, down here that we were likely seeing that at 1500. I mean, that's, that's what that's 200% higher there. That's 200% return on that. Uh, you know, or, you know, a 200% advance. So, I mean, uh, you know, but everybody was very,

Starting point is 00:41:11 very down. I think you remember right here, especially in this area, everybody's so, so bearish. And I kept saying, man, you got to stop being embarrassed. You were on him saying, man, you got to stop being embarrassed. You know, this is being silly, but you know, the market gets like that and then it takes off without them and then everybody's butt hurt. Yeah. So you got four more up there. I can see. Let's cook through those ideas you got going on. And by the way, I'm just going to say, I write the newsletter and sometimes I put in setups and charts and stuff. I always do Bitcoin charts, but all coins occasionally when I feel like the market's good. Today, I just wrote, don't be an idiot. If you like something, you're probably already in.

Starting point is 00:41:47 Right? I mean, you should be in. You shouldn't be on the sideline waiting for opportunity. But when you see Bitcoin flush 10% and your favorite altcoin goes down 25%, 30% and you know we're in a bull market, just buy it. I don't need to share specific ones. We can find them. But I just wanted to give people the context that it's a bull market, and there's going to be times when these coins outperform. So just be patient. But go ahead with the specifics. Oh, yeah.

Starting point is 00:42:11 We got flushes with everything on that. And it's been great. So I like this index USD. It looks like a good setup. We break $5.58 here, $5.58. And I think we run up to almost $14. It looks like it's a pretty good setup here this is reaccumulation if we're looking at the uh the price action and volume in

Starting point is 00:42:30 here and so we're getting ready to kind of you know break out of this range uh here and so that'll be our jump across the creek it should be a bigger candle big spike of volume comparatively to what we have here excuse me i got some tickle in my throat here. And that's going to, you know, that jump across Creek, that breakout through that supply, what is, what signals that reaccumulation or accumulation is complete. And so that's what we're looking for there. And again, should be a good run up there too. Yeah. Oh my gosh. You're going to make it man. The power goes out. Breathing goes out. Yeah. $15 or $14, I think is a pretty good target on that. And that takes us above its previous all-time high. You can see we got near there. Nice big pullback there,

Starting point is 00:43:15 looking for that rally up. And that doesn't mean that that's necessarily the highest it goes. It's just, that's my next target when I'm looking at this daily chart daily chart here. So, um, I've got TRB USDT. I think it's another interesting, um, opportunity here. Uh, this pullback, as you can see here is, uh, almost 50%. And then we got this nice, again, like we're seeing everywhere else, we found support. We've got a nice demand wick coming in. Uh, this is a three day just to see the movements easier, but I believe, um, you know, in. This is a three-day just to see the movements easier. But I believe, you know. Can you just zoom in a little closer?

Starting point is 00:43:49 Just the wide angle. It's kind of harder to see it. I think it'll help. Yeah, there you go. Yeah, there we go. I got to remember to do that. Yeah. I mean, so ultimately I'm looking for a breakout above, excuse me, above this one right here which is 166 90 And then that gives us minimum expected

Starting point is 00:44:08 393 75 and likely A retest of this high up here Which is right around 629 And if we're getting every test The odds are we're going to break out Higher from there so once again more local Targets but I

Starting point is 00:44:24 Think we're good to go if we from there so once again more local targets but uh i i think we're good to go uh if we can get a nice impulsive breakout so larger candle spread spike of volume through that um through this uh daily pivot here at around what is it around 118 119 dollars if we can get a impulsive breakout through that and close above it i think we're good to go but just for sure you know you want to be above 166.90 here. Like I said, minimum target there, 393. And then probably testing the all-time high there. And once you do that, more than likely or not, even if we get a pullback prior, it's going to break out.

Starting point is 00:44:57 So another really good kind of setup there. I had to bring down foul because I made a post about that a few months ago. And, you know, it's been doing well. We had a pullback initially, which is all part of it. I was talking about the idea that we've got this one and this two. And that gives us a minimum expected wave circle three up here at $25.73. This is accumulation here based on volume and price action. And so we're getting ready.

Starting point is 00:45:26 You know, again, we had that nice pullback yesterday. You should be looking to go forward. You should be looking to go forward. But locally in here, it looks like we've got this interior third wave of this larger third wave up there around $29.64. So that's going to overextend this other target, potentially up here toward this 1, 2, 3, up here to around 44, maybe a little bit higher based on that. But again, looks good, looks set up to go. We do have, as you'll see here, as you mentioned on the other chart,

Starting point is 00:45:57 they're in bullish divergence. So we've got that here between higher lows in price, lower lows in the oscillator. You can see that the daily pivot held this support. I mean, just everything textbook that you want to see here to get this thing going further. Stoke RSI is almost reset. And this, again, is the daily here. So looks, I mean, this is, you know, this is accumulation.

Starting point is 00:46:18 This is accumulation for, you know, we've been talking about these across all these different products. You know, 400 plus days heading across here. So we should expect some good movement up after. Same thing we saw with Bitcoin. Same thing we saw with Ethereum. Same thing we've shown on a lot of other alts as well. Is that last one you got up there, Matic? I hope it is.

Starting point is 00:46:39 Yeah, I got Matic up here. Everybody asking about Matic. Yeah. Another looks like accumulation phase here we've got some expansion as we go here we've got expansion of volume uh to me it looks like we've got a one two and then again a one two here so this interior wave three minimum expected target at two two dollars and 65 66 cents uh but that's just you of this bigger one, two, three heading up. So we'll get a three, we'll get a four on the pullback,

Starting point is 00:47:08 we'll get a five, which will be at this three, and then we'll have a four, then we'll have a five. But as you can see, all-time high up here. So just shy of that should be that third wave. Depending on how this might continue to subdivide here, like we're seeing on Bitcoin, the third wave could reach further. But minimally, we should be looking at about $2.65, 66 cents.

Starting point is 00:47:28 Talk journey to me. All right, I love that, man. Thank you for cooking through those with me. I know we both had technical difficulties. Unbelievable. Two different states. In the morning, man. Maybe there's something sweeping across the South.

Starting point is 00:47:39 I don't know. Yeah, and I'm jet lagged. I woke up at two o'clock this morning, wide awake. Crazy. Lots of fun on that. So you got a lot done lots of fun that's a totally so yeah it's been a very very very efficient day already i can't imagine how bad it's gonna get for me later and i have like four more shows today so i'm going to all right well guys that's all we got for you of course you can follow tx west capital on twitter x and uh hopefully we'll all have power when we

Starting point is 00:48:04 come back next time man thank you so much guys it's been a pleasure I will be back of course tomorrow see you guys later bye let's go

The Wolf Of All Streets - $150K Bitcoin | Will Bitcoin Double In Price After The Halving? | Mike Alfred

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