The Wolf Of All Streets - $37,000 Bitcoin | Can It Skyrocket 35%?

Episode Date: September 21, 2023

Anthony Scaramucci and Dan The Chart Guy are bringing their Bitcoin forecasts to you! Anthony Scaramucci: https://twitter.com/Scaramucci Dan The Chart Guy: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnqZ2hx679...DqRi6khRUNw2g ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 $37,000 Bitcoin. Can it skyrocket 35%? Well, history says that it could based on exceptionally good performance in the fourth quarter. In fact, it's been up seven out of nine times an average of about 35% in the fourth quarter over the last nine years with October being an especially good month. But maybe this time is different and maybe those down years are just that boring part of the cycle i'm going to dig into this today with anthony scaramucci and of course dan from the chart guys as well as a bunch of other news and notes we've got for you stick around let's go. some technical issues over here on our side, but wanted to get started. And hopefully we will be able to get Anthony up on stage. But first, wanted to go ahead and point out this story because every time I see it, it just makes me laugh. Guys, I know you've been terrified for years that the
Starting point is 00:01:19 Mt. Cox Bitcoin is going to hit the market and crush the market. But yet again, it's being delayed one year, which I would like to remind you, we have a basically 0% hit rate of any of these situations where they tell us that some massive amount of supply is going to hit the market well in advance and it's telegraphed and it's going to crash the market. But Bitcoin bull's missing in action after Mt. Gox delays Bitcoin repayments. Yeah, guys, nobody's reacted to this news. I've literally been hearing about the Mt. Cox Bitcoin since the day I got into crypto in 2016. And yet it still hasn't happened. Yes, of course, we've had times when Bitcoin has crashed because of Black Swan events and
Starting point is 00:02:04 selling pressure like FTX, but those weren't telegraphed for years in advance with people saying, oh, hey, all of these coins are going to hit the market. Even right now, we have this year, the United States government selling tens of thousands of Bitcoin, knowing it's going to happen in six months, doesn't do anything to the market. Yeah, doesn't do anything to the market. Oh, we got Anthony here. We're going to go ahead and bring him on. How are you doing, man? I'm doing great. I'm sorry about the UN traffic. I'll be in my studio in about five minutes. We'd love to catch you in the car. Yeah. Two hours to go 17 miles, Scott. So I don't know, maybe Bitcoin can solve that too.
Starting point is 00:02:40 You're in New York? I'm in New York, yeah I just something I want to tell you, which I haven't really reported broadly, but I have to file now with the SEC. So I'm telling people SkyBridge was the first outside investor in the BlackRock Bitcoin trust. And so just the mechanics of that is they needed an outside investor. Obviously, they put up some of their own money. But in order to do the formal process, they asked us to come in. So we put up 10 million bucks, became the first investor in the BlackRock Bitcoin Trust. And I don't know your opinion on it, but having talked to the BlackRock guys ad nauseum for the last six months, I do believe they get this approval. Of course, Gary's going to try to delay it as long as possible, but this could be a first quarter of next year approval. And if you couple that with the halving cycle, I think it's very
Starting point is 00:03:37 meaningful. I just want to say two quick things, because I'm a Wall Streeter. I'm not an OG like you, Scott, or the guys listening. But let me just say this to you guys. As a Wall Streeter. I'm not an OG like you, Scott, or the guys listening. I haven't been around that long, yeah. But let me just say this to you guys. As a Wall Streeter, products on Wall Street are sold. They are not bought. And so there's going to be tens of thousands, if not a hundred plus thousand people at these Wall Street firms selling these products to their traditional investors. And so people that are in Bitcoin understand the finite supply of Bitcoin, understand the nature and the quality that Bitcoin has.
Starting point is 00:04:14 This will push Bitcoin up. And of course, it'll have a dramatically positive effect in the altcoin market because it'll lead to more capital and digital properties. So people can think whatever they want. They can think short term about the near term volatility of Bitcoin. But these macro positive factors are overwhelming. Yeah. So does that mean that as the investor in the trust, effectively, you were like the first 10 million in AUM, your Bitcoin goes into the trust? Well, they put their own money in. I think they had probably
Starting point is 00:04:45 much more than that in, but they needed an outside investor. And so I have to do an Edgar filing every quarter. And so on September 30th, that's going to be announced to everybody. I wanted to get ahead of it. I figured I would use your show just to let people know. But why is that important? It's important because we're all working together. It's important that now the largest asset manager in the world who started out with some level of skepticism related to digital assets and Bitcoin is now willing to adopt Bitcoin. But even more important than that, they're willing to explain to their clients, $7 trillion plus, $8 trillion, I think BlackRock now $13 trillion for them, $7 trillion for Fidelity, why their clients need exposure to digital properties
Starting point is 00:05:33 like Bitcoin. And so we have a $500 plus billion market for Bitcoin. You and I both know gold is $12-ish, depending on where it's trading, but it's 12-ish trillion. There's no reason why Bitcoin couldn't get to gold. And again, for skeptics out there, when they launched GLD, the ETF GLD, look at the assets that went into GLD and look at the price appreciation on a stodgy asset like gold. Remember, Bitcoin has a much broader demographic. Our 10s and 20-year-olds and our 30-year-olds will be 10 years older 10 years from now. They'll all be in Bitcoin. And so people need to understand this when they're sitting around saying, oh, well, there's this FUD, there's that FUD, there's FTX, there's fraud, there's Gary Gensler, right? But this is a very high quality asset that the big players on Wall Street now
Starting point is 00:06:32 are going to be pushing through and selling to their clients. Is this about money? I mean, why the 180 degrees from Larry Fink and from BlackRock? Did it just mature enough that at some point they said, hey, listen to get in this because he had a pretty uh polarizing opinion on it before jamie diamond same but uh you know is this one of those uh strong opinions loosely held they changed their mind or is it strictly like let's get in where there's money well well i think i think it's some of it is about money but these fees on these etfs for black rock are going to be comparable to the fees that they have on other commodities like ETFs. So, you know, it's not going to be overwhelming money for BlackRock. It's probably not going to move the needle necessarily on their revenues, but it's different.
Starting point is 00:07:17 Is the product good? Is it accessible? Does it have the impermeability that we like when we talk about money and the qualities of what a store of value is? The answer to all those things, Scott, is yes. And so a result of which I've got to get in because my competitors are getting in. You know, Fidelity's in, Schwab is moving. Everybody's trying to get in. So it's a little bit, remember, Wall Street's like a match sailing race. If I'm behind you in the sailboat, I'm looking at your sail to see how you have it torqued relative to where the wind is going. And I've got to get my sail matched to
Starting point is 00:07:52 yours, if not slightly better on an angle to beat you. And so Wall Street being a match sailing race, these guys are going to come in together. So some of it is money, but some of it is, you know what, I can't show up at a meeting. Scott Melker just sold his business for a billion dollars. I'm an FA at XYZ. And Scott says to me, well, what's your digital asset strategy? And I said, oh no, it's a pet rock. It's a decentralized Ponzi scheme. And I have no digital asset strategy. And then Scott says, okay, that's fine. Let me go to the next vendor because I would like stocks and bonds and ETFs. But I'd also like a digital asset strategy because I'm a long term believer in these assets. So if you look at it from a Nash game theory analysis, Venn diagram, it points to every single player in the market having a Bitcoin ETF in their arsenal.
Starting point is 00:08:46 So again, Scott, low fees for that because everybody has it. Fees will be lower, but the price will be higher. Yeah, well, I'll take that. You said that you think that this is a first quarter of next year type of thing. A lot of people looking at the middle of October as a potential, our title, you know, can it skyrocket 35%? Because we've seen these sort of historically strong fourth quarters for Bitcoin. Do you think that there's a chance we could see that approval earlier than the first quarter of next year? These are pessimistic observations based on the sclerosis going on at the SEC.
Starting point is 00:09:24 You're a good journalist. You're a good sleuth. You know that the staff at the SEC absolutely despises Gary Gensler. He's lost the plot. He's lost legal cases. He's lost the judiciary. But for some reason, he hasn't lost Elizabeth Warren. Okay. And you and I know we have 200 year old fossils that are running the country and they're trying to run the regulatory footprint and rubric as well. You know, Gary is under he's probably the only person in Washington that thinks he has a shot at the Treasury secretary position. No. So, I mean, I honestly the level of delusion is actually mind boggling. So the cautious institutionalists that I talked to are saying first quarter of next year, the optimistic Bitcoiners, the optimistic digital property people are like, oh, this is going to happen eminently. But I know from my 35 years
Starting point is 00:10:19 of experience, it's just like building a house. The builder's going to tell you that I'm going to deliver the house on October 1. And sometime in February, you're moving into the house, Scott. If you're lucky. Yeah. If you're lucky, especially these days. So since you kind of talked about next year, the having this, then we also get into the presidential election cycle, which usually is sort of a bullish time. What do you make of all of these candidates coming out with a really pretty strong opinions outside of Trump and Biden, of course, on Bitcoin and their digital assets strategy? I saw Vivek Ramaswamy was drafting a crypto policy framework. I think he actually came on stage right after you at Mainnet and talked about that, right? He did. He was very positive. Again, he's a young man, 37. He gets it. He's not intimidated by the technology. And there's something Vivek said
Starting point is 00:11:11 yesterday, which I'll emphasize. He's not afraid of the technology. You've got older people in the government that believe that Bitcoin could potentially be a competitor or a competitive threat to the U.S. dollar and replace dollar supremacy. So they'll do everything they can to slow that down. I think Vivek's idea is the right one. Oh, no, we don't need to do that. We need to make sure that the United States is the intellectual capital engine and the capital capital engine for the growth of the industry around Bitcoin. We don't want this capital leaving, you know, brain drain or capital flight from the country. Not good for the economy. Also threatens the mantle of financial services leadership that
Starting point is 00:11:59 the United States has had for 100 years. And so I saw Vivek backstage and I said to him, Vivek, just take some time and read Diana Henriquez's new book called Taming the Street. It just came out on Amazon. I would recommend it to everybody. It's about what FDR did and his administration did in terms of setting up the SEC. We had the Wild West in the banking industry in the 1920s. We're calling the bankers banksters. Roosevelt, if you read Taming the Street, he did not want to damage capitalism, but he wanted to make the financial markets more transparent and more trustworthy. But he wanted to further the growth of the capital markets. And of course, he put Jack Kennedy's father, Joe Kennedy, in charge.
Starting point is 00:12:52 And as he said, we put the Fox in charge of the head house because he was stealing all the eggs in the 1920s. And they set up a rubric where they worked with the industry. They worked with the banking community. They worked with the securities industry. And they laid out a framework of a trustworthy market. It increased the growth of investing. It took 20 years, but it restored confidence. And the United States went on to become the arterial engine of global capitalism because we had a really good intersection between regulators and the industry that they were regulating. It was fair and propitious. And what I said to candidate Ramaswamy yesterday, take a look at the book because it will fortify your arguments for the mama bear regulation that's necessary in this market you know get gary's not
Starting point is 00:13:47 even like papa bear regulation you know what i mean he's like grandpa bear or great grandpa bear in the gold if we had a goldilocks story that added more of the family tree he's like great great grandfather bear you know and he's lost the plot and he's setting the U.S. back, not a decade, but he could be setting us back two to five years through the nonsense that he's perpetrating. Yeah. When do you think we see him go? I mean, does it take an election and a new regime? Or could it be that he just becomes so politically unpopular and a liability at this point that they finally kick him? I mean, you know, usually these SEC chairs don't even last more than two to three years anyways. Well, let me let me ask you a question first. How many Bitcoin wallets are in the US? I actually don't know the answer to that. OK, so Coinbase is saying 52 million. I don't know if that's true or not. So I'm not going to I'm just giving you a third
Starting point is 00:14:42 party's estimate of the wallets. So I'm going to assume most of those wallets are adults and most of those wallets are voters. I did a fundraiser last night for Governor Chris Christie. He's a personal friend of mine. I'm excuse me. I'm raising money. And what I said to Chris last night, 52 million people own Bitcoin. And that's gone up exponentially over the last couple of years. You don't want to have a pro- no value to the future of the blockchain. And the great deleveraging mechanism, the great mechanism among all of us to create more economic innovation, the layer, the economy, they have no strategy and you have a strategy. And there's 52 million people that have wallets.
Starting point is 00:15:47 And again, people do vote with their wallets, Scott. I don't want to sound so cynical, but it's always about the economy. It's always about, OK, is this guy going to help me and my family and increase the money in my checkbook? And so Ramaswamy understands that. Bobby Kennedy Jr. understands that. I think I got Chris Christie around to understanding that. And I really do believe that if you get into April of next year and Joe Biden, it looks like he's going to be the nominee and you get somebody other than Trump again, because he's another aged guy and he doesn't like Bitcoin. OK, he's said that publicly.
Starting point is 00:16:26 He said that publicly during his administration. He took Secretary Mnuchin out there to say nasty things about Bitcoin. And these are old guys who don't understand it. But if you get a younger person in the mix that actually understands it versus the older person, I do believe it gives them an edge or a leg up because there are so many wallets, Scott. So you're asking the question about Gensler. I had to bring all that up because you could be in April or May of next year. The ETF has been approved. He's further disgraced by all the nonsense that he did. And if Trump's knocked out of the race and you get a younger guy in there, you pick any of those guys that are pro-Bitcoin versus the anti-Bitcoin
Starting point is 00:17:05 contingent. I don't know. I think Gensler could go as a sacrificial lamb to try to change the narrative for the Biden campaign. Yeah. And I had Caitlin Long on, and she also pointed out the fact that if you just look at the four-year cycle and the halving and the ETF approval, we could be starting a Bitcoin bull run right into election season, which if that happens, you know, September, October of next year, they would all have to have a very favorable opinion because there'll be more and more and more people supporting it. So I just want to add something to that. And I obviously agree with her and you, but I want to add something to that. It's not going to come necessarily from the traditional Bitcoiners. And what I mean by that, we've seen the boom-buff cycles in Bitcoin since its inception, and there's been a lot of early adapters, but you've got to go further down the S-curve now.
Starting point is 00:18:00 Okay, I'm an institutionalist. I'm an old Wall Street veteran. I bought my first Bitcoin in October of 2020. I want you to imagine 15 people with that resume buying their first Bitcoin in January of 2024. happening is a new set of players is going to raise the stakes in Bitcoin. Certainly, Michael Saylor is going to continue buying Bitcoin. And certainly, there's going to be Bitcoiners out there incrementally buying Bitcoin. But I think what's going to make this bull market different from the other bull markets is we're finally going to get that institutional drop, Scott. You know, when I, in the bull market of 2021, people put me on the air. They said, what do you think about institutions? They're just not ready.
Starting point is 00:18:53 You know, they get their lawyer that comes in and says, hey, why do we need this yet? There's not enough regulatory clarity. Let's see if we can get an ETF approved in the United States. Then you win this case. You know, Grayscale basically smiced at them. The supply's cut. You know, Ryan last night asked me a question. He said, hey, well, you're only going from 900 coins a day to 450. The supply cut is not as dramatic as it once was.
Starting point is 00:19:38 And I said, hold on a second. That is a big supply cut because the numbers are higher. But in addition to that, don't underestimate the tens of thousands, if not at least a hundred plus thousand FAs, brokers, financial consultants, institutional salespeople that'll be talking to their clients about owning a half a percent, one percent, two percent of something like Bitcoin. Yeah, I agree. It's the same narrative, but they're actually ready. You don't get a bigger stamp of approval than BlackRock, period. So we could talk about it all day, but the minute that BlackRock said they're applying for an ETF, then all the, I guess,
Starting point is 00:20:20 haters and skeptics are out the window. They are. Well, I mean, I've done a lot of things in my career. I've had a lot of ups and downs. And one of my prouder moments was, hey, Mooch, do you want to invest in this thing and be our first investor? And the answer was, yes, I want to be a first mover because if we help each other, I always tell people in this industry, let's not compete. You know, let's collaborate. OK, and I don't say that from an antitrust point of view. I just say it from a let's row the boat together, promote the industry. And if we do that, we're going to be very, very successful in this industry. Fifteen years ago, I had that message to my my brethren in the hedge fund community. I'm making that message at my conferences, the Bitcoin conferences, the soft conferences, whatever we're doing.
Starting point is 00:21:05 Let's collaborate, not compete. Let's roll the boat together. Let's find ways to help each other. Let's find ways to boost each other's businesses because, you know, I'm not OG, but I did get there earlier than the institutions got. You know, I mean, you know, I moved a couple of years before these guys because I saw the magnitude of what was happening. And I'm just very happy that they're seeing it now in a lot of ways. You're going to get Abigail Johnson at Fidelity, one of the largest people, one of the largest institutional investors in the world. Larry Fink, the largest. You got Abigail Johnson and Larry Fink working for us as Bitcoiners. I like that. Yeah, it doesn't get much better than that. Well, man, I know you got to get into your office.
Starting point is 00:21:52 Thank you so much for the time and taking it. I know it's always on your morning commute, but we love to have you, man. You're welcome anytime. I got to find a way to get to the computer. You might be working on the Shark Tank show one day too. Yeah, I'm looking forward to that. I talked to Mario about that. All right, God bless. I'll be at a computer Shark Tank show one day, too. Yeah, I'm looking forward to that. I talked to Mario about that, all right? God bless. I'll be at a computer next time I see you, bro.
Starting point is 00:22:10 That's perfect. It works out great. Thank you. Bye-bye. I kind of like the car better than the computer, to be honest with you. I kind of like the car better. It's cool. I'm going to go ahead and get Dan, see what he thinks about all this.
Starting point is 00:22:22 It's Thursday, so here we are. We missed last week, unfortunately. Much changed in your mind here? There's a key test for me. I mean, what we've seen the last two weeks is Bitcoin gaining relative strength against the NASDAQ, and it's been weaker than the NASDAQ for two months. And now in the past two weeks, it's starting to gain some strength. So that always makes me perk up a little bit as far as paying a little bit of extra attention. But I still need a clear, confirmed daily uptrend, which is what Bitcoin is going to be working on doing here over the next few days as we are now pulling back with the broader market in reaction to the FOMC yesterday. So the next week is fairly pivotal
Starting point is 00:23:00 for me to see, you know, is this wall of defense at 25,000, is it going to hold for the foreseeable short-term future here? And we'll know that answer in about a week or so. Yeah. It looked a little dumpy as I'm looking at it right now. I was like kind of catching up, but you know, that's not the daily candle you want to be seeing so far here, right at that 50 MA again, just kind of getting rejected. It's funny because a lot of people said there's this death cross, which to me is not a very important indicator, but usually, apparently, we get a move right back up to the EMA after that death cross and then continue back down. I mean, markets are not looking great. I find it hilarious when the Fed does exactly what you know and then the markets
Starting point is 00:23:38 react anyways. I mean, literally everybody knew there was going to be no cut or hike. Literally everybody knew that he would take a hawkish tone and talk about higher for longer. But yet the market acts surprised. Yeah, it's interesting. These days, I mean, back, I don't even remember when, but it used to be, you know, 2 p.m. We would get the massive volatility when we would get a decision. And now the market is pretty certain every time what's going to happen. And it's the forward looking language at the conference start 2.30 PM Eastern where the volatility starts kicking in.
Starting point is 00:24:10 Yeah. So I see somebody asking, Dan, can you please look at DXY quarterly? Sure can. So can we get the dollar there? Let's take a look since we're taking the request from the peanut gallery. Let's see what you got. So quarterly, let's go three-month timeframe. So yeah, I mean, it's at the longer term, high or low that we were keeping an eye out for. And really the path forward is going to be, do we confirm a downtrend? Well, really there's three things. We either see continuation and a big time breakout. We either set the lower high and tighten up in an equilibrium for a very long time, or we confirm that downtrend. And when we're determining probabilities of which is going
Starting point is 00:24:51 to happen, we always want to look at retracement sizes to help us determine that. And currently, the bounce retracement is right at about 40%. And we know that anything under 50% keeps the door open for confirming a downtrend. And anything once we get over 50%, that opens the door for a potential long-term tightening range. So keeping a close eye. And really, it's inverse to the broader market where you look at the NASDAQ and it's the same question. Three-month time frame.
Starting point is 00:25:18 All right. Are we about to set this lower high and tighten up all of 2024? We've talked about that a bit in prior calls. And we're just waiting right now. The weekly is key for me. We're heading on the NASDAQ towards weekly support. Do we confirm the downtrend or do the bulls defend support and tighten up? And really, their backs are starting to get against the wall. They need to start showing up essentially on the gap down open today. If the bulls don't start to defend here, then we will confirm this weekly downtrend and we'll be shaping up for the possibility of a long-term tightening range
Starting point is 00:25:52 through a good part of 2024. So it is a pretty important next few weeks here in the market as a whole. Yeah. I mean, looking at the dollar, the 10th green week, I mean, obviously the week's not closed, but the 10th green week effectively in a row with one day left and does look like it made that higher high after all those higher lows. So it's hard to fade the dollar at this exact moment, I would say. Yeah, it caught me a little bit off guard. The bounce in the dollar wasn't surprising on the weekly, but once after six weeks or so, now it's like, all right, you know, we're due for some consolidation. We're coming straight off the low. But, you know, my learning lesson here is just the momentum, you know, that's just it's keeping that momentum going.
Starting point is 00:26:33 And there really hasn't been much pause at all on this move up. And so it's, you know, keep an eye on the bulls as long as they have it. And I have to see a confirmed daily downtrend on the dollar because we had this pullback here, but couldn't confirm the downtrend. So I have to see a clear, lose the uptrend, confirm the downtrend, if anything is going to stick as far as a pullback. And I'm definitely watching the metals because the metals just keep tightening up. Silver is getting really tight on the weekly, gold's just tightening up. And so I do think we're going to see volatility pick up in markets a bit into the end of the year this year. But watching very closely because I'm still keeping an eye on gold potential monthly bull flag if this tightening
Starting point is 00:27:16 range were to break bull, but only if the dollar weakens. And we have to see that happen. And I'm not going to assume it's going to happen. So what are you looking at? Otherwise, obviously, you made the great call on the weed stocks. That was pretty incredible. It happened basically like hours after you jumped off of our stream a couple of weeks ago. Is there anything specifically, any areas that are showing any relative strength or weakness that you're watching? It is uranium stocks. I've been watching uranium stocks for a while. And that's really just showing us the strength in commodities because we know oil has been extremely strong for the last couple of months. I mean, these uranium stocks have been in monthly, weekly, daily uptrends for
Starting point is 00:27:53 years. And you can't really say that about any other sector right now, maybe the energy sector. And so again, that's a point in favor of me like, okay, well, the metals haven't been participating and commodities have been doing really well. So are the metals going to act as laggards? So I'm still watching closely for that. But I'll be watching for weekly higher lows in CCJ, which is one of the major uranium names. URA is the ETF to be keeping an eye on.
Starting point is 00:28:20 And just to go back to ETFs, like he was mentioning, I was curious, he mentioned the start of the gold ETF, GLV. And I go back in time and I look at once it first started trading in 2005, yeah, that was a heck of a turnaround, 400%, 500% over the course of a number of years. And then I look at cannabis stocks. MSOS was the introduction of the cannabis ETF. And it did the same thing. It took a month to get going. But once it did, it had a really strong start. So let's see if once we get that Bitcoin ETF, does it get a weekly uptrend going for a number of months or a number of years? It's certainly going to be a fascinating case study that I'm going to log into my memory banks. Maybe that'll come in handy
Starting point is 00:29:02 20 years from now when there's some new technology ETF, but certainly I'm excited to see how it plays out. Yeah. I'm hoping that we actually get it. Right. And obviously everybody's very optimistic, but there's no guarantees there. That was pretty cool that he shared that he was the first investor in the trust there. I had no idea that that was the case, but I do think that if we get the ETF, that it's going to just skyrocket to our title. So do you think... Let's talk about our title, 37,000 Bitcoin, can it skyrocket 35%? Here were the stats that I was basing that on. Let me pull it up really quick. So we have, like I said, we have in the fourth quarter, 35% upside over the past
Starting point is 00:29:47 nine years on average. If history is a guide, Bitcoin can reach 37,000 by year end. This is coming from Matrixport. And October is a notably strong month with positive Bitcoin returns in seven out of the last nine years with average returns of 20%. Those are pretty convincing. My approach to Bitcoin- I want to go back though and see if it's like this year, like I said, the year before the halving, if that's the one year that we have those two seven out of nine Octobers that are not great. Yeah. I'm viewing Bitcoin from here just knowing that the more market cap it gains, the more players get involved,, you know, it's diminishing volatility.
Starting point is 00:30:27 And so, you know, I would be looking on potentially the lower side of that. But really, it's the question for me right now is on Bitcoin, as I mentioned. So for me, the daily just bounced 10% with no trend change. And we had this little dinky sideways. I mean, this is just the weekend. This is when the volume's dead and there's nothing going on. So it was pretty much just a 10% straight up bounce. And again, the key for me is do we set the higher low wherever that is and see continuation? And that's a must because if we just fade back down, then obviously we're not going anywhere and we're going to test
Starting point is 00:30:59 that key support yet again. And so the question on the weekly perspective is, is this a weekly head and shoulders or not? And if we don't get anywhere on this bounce, we know it's just a matter of time before we revisit the base at 25,000. And if that were to break, then I would be on the three-month timeframe, the quarterly chart there to see, can we form a higher low compared to 15,000 or not? But we'll certainly want to avoid that. They want to hold this line in the sand 25,000, because if we can make a significant move from here and, you know, get back up to 28, 29, that then builds confidence to say, all right,
Starting point is 00:31:35 you know, bulls don't have anything to worry about as long as 25 is support. And so we need to just have a little bit more confidence off that level. We know the bulls are playing defense at 25,000. The question is, can they turn that into offense? Can the scales between supply and demand tilt enough for demand to outweigh supply and to start seeing that move back up towards the upper 20,000s? Love the perspective as always, man.
Starting point is 00:31:59 Thank you so much. And I'll see you next Thursday. All right. See you then. Thanks, Dan. All right, guys, I will be back tomorrow morning. Also Crypto Town Hall 1015. And then today at 3pm, we're going to figure out on this channel, but definitely on Gareth Soloway's channel, probably on this channel, myself, Gareth and Mike McGlone at 3pm Eastern Standard Time Market
Starting point is 00:32:20 Mavericks. As you guys know, I'm a bit under the weather, so I'm going to go rest up for those shows. Appreciate you guys. See you at 3 p.m. probably here, but we're going to figure it out. And Garrett's channel. And then, of course, tomorrow morning. See you guys then. Peace out.
Starting point is 00:32:36 Let's go.

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