The Wolf Of All Streets - $450 Billion Will Flood Into Crypto ETFs | Will Bitcoin Skyrocket?

Episode Date: May 29, 2024

Crypto ETFs are forecasted to experience massive inflows of up to $450 billion. What will happen to the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and other cryptos? This and more I will discuss with James Butterfill, Head of Research at Coinshares. Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond. James Butterfill: https://x.com/jbutterfill Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities! 👉https://thearchpublic.com/ ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000! 👉https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code 'TENOFFSALE' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd ►►NORD VPN GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

According to analysts at Bernstein, ETF products in the United States, both Bitcoin and Ethereum, will see a total of $450 billion assets under management in the coming years, up to $100 billion in the first year. Is this wildly over expectations? And if it is not, what will that mean for Bitcoin and Ethereum price and, of course, for the wider crypto market as a whole. When I want to talk about inflows, outflows, institutions, and everything else, I've got one of my favorite guests, James Butterfield from CoinShares, here to talk about all of that. And of course, Texas West Capital on the back half. I'm coming in here from ConsenSys in Austin, Texas, guys. Let's go.

What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. As you can see, once again, on the road, I can't remember the last time I actually recorded a show in my actual studio at home. It's been a while I've been on the road, but here we are consensus actually starting today. And there's actually palpable excitement in the air in Austin, Texas, which is 180 degree dead opposite polar. You could not imagine how depressing this conference was last year. I remember telling you guys about it and walked around. There was maybe a fourth or a fifth of the people that had been there the year before in the bull market. And it seemed like at least 25% to 30% of the booths were bankruptcy lawyers and accountants. And when you have a

bunch of bankruptcy lawyers and accountants, instead of PFP NFT projects, spending money to market to your audience, you know that you're probably in big trouble. But we've come out of that. A lot has changed in the United States, even just in the past few weeks. So for once, we get one of these conferences in the United States where there's actually excitement. James, you're not here, but you're coming to Texas soon, right? So for once, we get one of these conferences in the United States where there's actually excitement. James, you're not here, but you're coming to Texas soon, right? Yeah, I'm here in Texas on the 10th of June to see a road trip, to see various different crypto and Bitcoin mining companies,

Riot, Argo Blockchain, and a few others to have a look at their facilities. So actually, CoinShares, we are one of the world's largest Bitcoin mining investors at the moment. Not the largest, but one of the largest. So, we have about $400 million of assets in crypto mining companies. Interesting segue then. I saw one of the big stories yesterday. I don't even have it to pull up, but was that Riot is going to be acquiring BitFarms. Is that correct?

Or are they proposing to? That's true. They're proposing to. It's quite an aggressive one. I mean, it's yet for BitFarms to agree. It does seem a little bit, it seems like a good deal for BitFarms. It seems like they're massively overpaid. It seems expensive yeah if you imagine you know bitcoin mining hardware you

can buy it around 16 17 dollars per terahash um their bid would equate to around 45 dollars per terahash but obviously there's lots of infrastructure on top of so it's not just the mining equipment but um it does seem a little bit over the odds at the moment. And someone else could come in and make a bid too. But yeah, it's interesting. I mean, I suppose this comes as no surprise post halving, we see some sort of M&A like this. Consolidation. Yeah. Yeah. We talked about the fact that that was likely to happen and seems to happen every cycle, but is Bitfarms under that much pressure that they need to sell or is this just a favorable deal that they can't say no to? This is, in our fund, it has one of the highest ratings. It's a good company, well-run company.

Yeah. Well, maybe they're taking advantage of what's getting ahead of what could be coming from the having. I guess we'll see if that goes through. So I want to talk about, obviously, this title here, 450 billion will flood into crypto ETFs. That's coming from Bernstein. I misquoted at the beginning. I think I said 100 billion accidentally in the next year in the intro there. But they were talking about the next 18 to 24 months as you dig into this. But effectively saying that this is going to grow to a $450 billion market over the next couple of

years, to me, that means an expectation that the Ethereum ETFs are going to do quite well, because Bitcoin wouldn't carry a number like that on its own. We have ETPs launching in London. I know they're a bit muted. This is happening all over the world right now. I mean, is this a reasonable expectation? And if we can see that kind of numbers, you have to imagine that would be bullish for price. This seems like a pretty crazy number. I mean, this is a trad-fi company coming out with crypto numbers, which seems a bit unusual. to put it in perspective there is 98 billion dollars of assets under management in crypto ETFs

or ETPs globally so 450 billion dollar number is quadruple that so that's a massive number and a very bold one and in any given year the largest we've ever seen is this year so far at 14.9 billion

dollars of inflows a year to date and that's outstripped 2021 where we saw 10.6 billion dollars of inflows so there's a lot of kind of assumptions in there based on how many people are going to buy and how much price in both bitcoin and ethereum are to rise by, which is, I've not looked at the report, but I'm assuming they've baked in pretty chunky numbers for Bitcoin price rises and Ethereum. What's interesting, though, is the Ethereum ETF. Sorry, Scott, you were going to... No, no, I was going to comment.

When you think about it, if they're strictly talking about assets under management and you get a full bullish halving cycle, and we 3 or 4x from here just as a part of that. Well, you're talking about 4x, if we're at 100 billion and Bitcoin goes up four times in price, it gets there without even a massively increased inflow. So it could be that perfect storm of muted inflows or rising inflows, but with just price going up. A couple of factors could prompt that.

A dollar collapse. Some people are starting to talk about that happening. The hegemony of the dollar isn't great at the moment. And also a knee-jerk reaction to monetary policy. So if you look at the futures market, interest rate expectations are saying first rate cut not to be till December. I do think the first rate cut will be bigger than expected and later than expected, i.e. a knee-jerk reaction. I agree. Something breaks and it's not a casual 25-bit cut just because the market's expecting it. There's a credit event or something like that and they're forced to really intervene.

I think in those kind of scenarios, it would be actually very bullish for something like Bitcoin. It's massively sensitive to interest rate expectations. So, yeah, I think there's a lot of assumptions you have to make there. I don't make predictions like that. But, you know, certainly on Ethereum's side, it's interesting. The amount of circulating supply of Ethereum is quite low because a lot of people are staking. Now, the new ETFs,

they won't be able to stake when they're launched in July, most likely. So there could well be a bit of a squeeze going on, a supply squeeze, and that could lead to some quite sharp uprisings in prices. So maybe Bernstein are thinking about that too yeah i mean you sent sort of this uh quick macro update before here's what you said a raft of good macro data durable good beat michigan sentiment be a consumer confidence beat fomc members interpreted as slightly more hawkish so i just don't understand without something breaking which i guess we're all expecting at this point, but without it, why there would be any cuts priced in at this point. And the predictive markets have been wrong for as long as we can remember at this point. Well, I think if I've been wrong of anything,

it is thinking about what the Fed should do and what they will do are two different things. And I think about what they should do perhaps a bit too much. That is either they should be cutting rates earlier, being preemptive, but they won't be. What they will do is repeat what they should do, perhaps a bit too much. That is, they should be cutting rates earlier, being preemptive, but they won't be. What they will do is repeat what they've done in history. Yeah, they didn't learn that lesson on the way up. I mean, you know, they are losing on the way down. I should say that they kept things loose for far too long. Everybody knows it.

They created the problem and now they'll overshoot. But historically, they've overshot in both directions every time. Yeah, and I suspect, you know, this is why we've seen a slight downturn in Bitcoin prices or just sort of treading water. Because, you know, that raft of positive macro data, I think, has just made people realize that perhaps a rate cut isn't quite as imminent as they believe. I still believe a rate cut is bad news. I want to talk about the supply squeeze that you mentioned, obviously. So we're going to get, at some point, looking like July, Ethereum spot ETFs actually trading. Hard to follow the roadmap of what

happened with Bitcoin because we had such a long run-up to those being approved and the marketing campaigns and the educational campaigns and the expectations. Now the S1s weren't even ready, right? It's got approved and it's kind of a fire sale. And now we have this gap in time until they're actually going to be approved. But you talked about there being a supply squeeze when that happens and they start filling. What about the fact that EFE, the equivalent to GBTC, right? Everyone will remember GBTC had these massive outflows that caused Bitcoin price to dip for the first few weeks after.

We talk about the lack of Ethereum supply on exchanges, but there's $11 billion in ETH-E that presumably most people are going, or a huge percentage of people are going to be looking to exit. That effectively doubles the supply that's available on exchanges if all of that was presumed to be sold. And $11 billion for ETH is a lot more than the $25 billion that was in GBTC is for Bitcoin relative to the market. So why did the CEO of Grayscale step down? My kind of half feeling is that the board said to him look you've it's been expensive for us we've seen massive outflows we should have cut um uh fees much earlier to to stem the outflow now interesting so i've been watching the proposed fees number for

the grayscale eth etf And it's just a blank space. No one knows. But they must be thinking, I mean, let's say if they come out with a one and a half percent fee, which would be well above the competition, which is much more likely to be around 20 basis points, 30 basis points, similar to Bitcoin, you should expect there to be significant outflows from that product. It's actually in some ways, or whilst we don't have, like you mentioned, the same sort of hype coming up to the actual SEC approval, if you look at the discount to NAV for the

Ethereum, the current Grayscale Ethereum product, a year ago, it had a 60% discount. Today, it's at zero. So it's closed rapidly. And that was a very, very similar situation for the Bitcoin product. So there are likely a bunch of investors there that have been locked in for many years at a discount and they want to get out. And so I think it's quite high probability we see it launch and we see some of the new issuers come see inflows, but they're

offset by Grayscale outflows. Yeah. So we've still got a slight discount there, I think, but it's going to be zero in the coming weeks. And you're talking about 23%, I think it was on May 17th, and it was as high as almost 60% in the past year. So what a trade if you followed the GBTC roadmap and got into ETH, although I doubt there were quite as many people doing it. And talking about Grayscale, and I guess bad news for them, which is what we're talking about to some degree, we finally have the flippening. And it's not the flippening of Ethereum and Bitcoin, it is the flippening of GBTC and iBit. BlackRock's 20 billion ETF is now the world's largest Bitcoin fund. And I guess,

in a humorous twist from the universe, I think it was exactly 21 weeks, much like the 21 million Bitcoin people are pointing at. Kind of a funny time for it to happen. But it only took 21 weeks for BlackRock to flip this product. To your point, that's not great management or strategy on Grace's part. Well, if you look at the income they're making they still have 17 billion dollars of assets under management in in bitcoin and they're making 150 basis points points off that versus what 12 20 basis points for uh for ibit so it's still a good business were they making when gbtc was a closed fund and they were charging uh you know high fees and had all of it well originally it was 250 base points and then

on 25 billion yeah so yeah still though making enough money i think to be meaningful but i mean is this like is this a sign of the times of blackrock i mean is going to be the dominant player in all of these? Would we expect that when the Ethereum spot ETFs launch that BlackRock will be the dominant player? I mean, many investment managers who they're trying to attract have never heard of Grayscale. I know in our world it's well known, but when they're looking at doing their due diligence across the different funds, what's the most liquid? What's the most attractive fees, what's the largest in assets under management. I mean, iShares will, BlackRock will always tick

way more boxes than Grayscale will. So I think it will just by default for that matter become the winner. I mean, that's always the case. If you look at ETFs in equities or fixed income scale, really, really matters. And iShares and BlackRock have that. like VanEck, but specifically Bitwise that are really out there on a roadshow, speaking to crypto natives, speaking to TradFi, trying to explain why you want to go with a company that understands crypto. And then you just have the Walmart of ETFs over here, BlackRock, the name brand that everybody knows to your point. And if people don't know Grayscale, and Grayscale is not out there on that same sort of roadshow, They're kind of lost in the middle.

I will say, though, that Grayscale has ads in every airport I walk into for the last year everywhere. Every screen is a Grayscale ad. Distribution is really important. If you look in Europe at some providers, they've done absolutely no kind of distribution or sales efforts at all. And it is reflected in their assets under management. They haven't grown at all. And it is reflected in their assets under management. They haven't grown at all. And those that have been much more aggressive have had the most success in terms of assets under management.

I mean, the thing about iShares is it's already by default on most platforms, most investor platforms. And so that I think is massively helpful. And that's why I say early scale is so important in this game. Yeah. is massively helpful. And that's why I say early scale is so important in this game. Yeah, I think BlackRock's going to flip on the Ethereum spot ETFs even faster than 21 weeks. Quite possible. Yeah, I think it's going to be a lot faster at this point

and we're just going to see Grayscale bleed. And then the next question is Solana. When will the Solana ETF? That's the next question. I don't think that's the answer. Yeah. I mean, maybe I'm wrong, but the people I speak to that I respect the most on that and sort of what I've gathered is that without CME futures, the SEC has really no path to approving ETFs for others. So maybe if we see CME futures or a market of meaningful size or surveillance sharing agreements, whatever it is for some of these, then we can start to talk about them in the future. But Bitcoin and Ethereum are somewhat unique, I think, in that they have CME futures with

real size. And the SEC has never outright come out and said that Ethereum is a security. Kind of vague. But Solana, Cardano, XRP, even though the court's pushed back, they've listed those in these Coinbase and Binance suits outright as securities, at least in the mind of the SEC. I do think we could see a push because it is in Europe, Solana is the darling, it's the most favored uh etf in your etc in europe at the moment it's you know if you look at the inflows here today they're much higher than ethereum so now i think that's likely to change quite quite soon but it's had that steady pick

up in asset center management in solana and i do think there could that's where the next set of eyes will be how How long it takes, it's probably longer than people expect. Yeah. Does that mean that we're going to get dog with hat ETP and Doge ETFs and Shiba Inu exchange traded products? I mean, is that the future? It's a slippery slope beyond Ethereum. Yeah, if you look at volumes in Solana, they're absolutely minuscule relative to Ethereum and Bitcoin. So it's much harder to be a market maker and operate in that space. And yeah, as you said, it requires that much more developed futures market

for it to really become a viable option. I expect the bid-ask spread. So that's when you're buying and selling would be pretty wide on a product like that initially. Yeah, I agree. I just don't see it happening. I mean, I think my favorite stat for context last week was this Ethereum move after the news came. Ethereum went up 30-something percent, I think, from trough to peak. In one day, Ethereum added a full Solana market cap to its own market cap in a 20% move or something like that. I know we have this perception that Solana has taken over and has replaced Ethereum in this community, but Ethereum is still a behemoth relative to Solana. You're talking about many, many, many multiples in size, volume, TVL, everything.

Yeah. We look at active devs, we scrape all the GitHub data and the number of active devs in Ethereum is 4,700. The number in Solana is 400. So 10 times- Or even a 10X on development. Yeah. So it's- Does that include layer twos? does that include like all layer two development as well yeah it does that so for um ethereum in that count is a lot of quite small projects which actually funny enough might be involved with solana too they straddle different layer two ecosystems that's really interesting because there's so many layer twos that I wonder how much that skews the numbers just because there's so many projects.

But then again, Solana is just a meme coin casino. So imagine how it skews in that direction when you have people launching a thousand coins a day. Well, the number looks pretty depressing actually because Ethereum two years ago had 50,000 active devs and it's now 4,700. Is that a fair market thing? Yeah, our suspicion is there's a core set of devs that carry on. So our definition of a dev is someone who's made one commit every month, an active dev.

So, you know, you don't have to be doing much and there's probably lots of people just playing around in the solana ecosystem probably not really contributing and ethereum ecosystems probably not really contributing anything at all um but that's declined dramatically and i i think on what we're being stripped down to now is a core set of devs actually genuinely doing something interestingly though for solana we didn't we haven't seen those same declines there has been a steady increase in active devs not declined at all so i suppose that's just watching a meme coin make you an active dev yeah it would because you might if it's if it's an l2 on if it's an erc20 token then yes it would be counted so there's probably a lot of that sort of buff in in in the numbers interestingly though you know we've sort

of had this solana meme coin casino but it's the big name ethereum ones or some of them that have actually outside of you know shiv the dog coins haven't really moved, but like Pepe and MOG and all these things are still on Ethereum and are still making all time highs with this Ethereum hype. Some of these are still continuing to run absolutely like mad. I mean, you got that story. I love this one. Investor turns $2,700 of Shiba Inu into 1.2 million by holding it for over three years. People are still making a ton of money on this. There was a guy, a SHIB guy we had on spaces one

time who said he had like $1,000 worth of SHIB and at the peak was worth billions. I never did the math, but I mean, the numbers here are absolutely absurd. But how does that, I mean, how are these things still making new all-time highs? I mean, the problem is, if you think about psychology, it's a bit like owning Bitcoin 10 years ago. If you had $1,000 and you turned it into $100,000, you'd probably think now's the time to take profit, not wait for it to hit a billion dollars. The psychology of most people, they would have taken profit years ago. And in fact, criminals are the ones that seem to make a lot of money. They got banged up in jail, couldn't move their Bitcoin. Now suddenly they're millionaires when

they leave jail. But I think you can't discredit the NFT sector. There's a lot of rubbish out there. But if you look at some of the, there's a small core set of NFTs that are actually really bucking the trend in terms of price movements. And it's obfuscated by a lot of rubbish out there that's not really working. But, you know, there's some pretty serious people involved, art collectors involved in the NFT space now. And I think it will have a bit of a resurgence, but you'll see it being much more discerning. I mean, things like CryptoPunks clearly have that sort of first mover advantage.

And there's other ones that genuinely have some artistic merit. There's some AI NFTs, which are really kind of cool and interesting, that seem to be doing very well from a price perspective. Yeah, I think that we will, assuming we get this full cycle as assumed, which I guess is a strong assumption, we will have a huge run in NFTs. I'd imagine as a part of that. I want to ask you about one last thing before we go. Interesting, because you mentioned, you know,

the best performers are the ones who sit in jail and can't sell anything and have no access to their tokens. It's kind of the old anecdote that the best, you know, Merrill Lynch and Schwab customers are the dead ones who never close their account. You know, Mark Yusko loves to tell that story. But we have this interesting scenario that I was talking about on Spaces with Bruce Fenton yesterday. Mt. Gox apparently finally unlocking some of these tokens and getting ready to distribute them. It's only $9 billion worth.

I mean, at this point in this market, I think it's a nothing burger as far as sales pressure, considering it'll be slowly laid out and most of those people I think will hold. But what's interesting is that according to him, they're getting back about 25% of their tokens in kind. And I made the argument that since Bitcoin was $400 at that point, I would say that over 90% of those people would have sold at some point on this run up and never held to $68,000. 99.9% I would almost bet would have sold in a thousand or 10,000. So I bet that that bankruptcy in particular in 2014, forcing them to hold a quarter of their coins for 10 years, probably was a huge boon for almost every single one of those people.

Yeah. And I would forgive them for losing 75% of my holdings as well, because they've probably done amazingly well yeah i i was just thinking about today how many i've not seen the address makeup and who held what but some people are going to be overnight millionaires maybe a few billionaires as well fascinating yeah but would you agree with me that most of those people would not be if they had had access to those coins for the last 10 years i mean you're talking about two or three full cycles. And if you bought most of those people, if it was 400

when Mt. Gox collapsed, they bought sub-100. Yeah. I think they were all going to be out at 1,000. Who's it going to? What exchange is it going to? Are they receiving it? I think it's just that it moved wallets, but when they've asked people in the know, it's apparently the beginning of wallets, but when they've asked people in the notes,

it's apparently the beginning of the distributions, but we have very little information on how they'll be distributed, on what sort of time schedule to everyone at once, or if it'll be slowly and where it will be done. Bitcoin is trading $15 billion a day. So in terms of liquidity, it can swallow that pretty quickly and not really move markets that much if it's done. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to sell. The funny thing is that Bruce was saying, he's like, most of these people, they're gone, they gave up. He's like, they hate Bitcoin. They stopped thinking about it years ago,

except for when they see the price and they get an emotional reaction. I was like, they're back now. Whether they like it or not, they're back in the market. Yeah. Yeah, it's fantastic. Unfortunately, I wasn't a Mt. Gox customer. So, yeah. But in what world would we ever think that when they were finally making the distributions, we would be saying, unfortunately, I wasn't a Mt. Gox customer, because that was the worst thing that happened to all of these people in 2014.

Yeah. And even in 2017 or 18, when price came all the way back to 3000 or something, they didn't see a path to this much, you know, I guess, dollar value wealth getting back. I mean, you know, they were talking about 10, 20, I mean, 30, 40 X on 25% of your money. It's pretty good.

If you look at FTX, 30, 40x on 25% of your money. It's pretty good. If you look at FTX, people are getting almost 100% back of their holdings. So it's a bit harsh, I think, to look at Mt. Cox are only getting- Excuse me, 150x, right? Is it really that much? On the value of Bitcoin from $400, 10x to 40, 10X to 4,000, 100X to 40,000. Yeah. Yes.

So, you know, maybe they would have sold 100% for a 3X or a 4X. Instead, they're holding 25% for 150X. Seems pretty good. Yeah. Yeah. All right, James. Always a pleasure. I look forward to hearing about your trip through Texas.

That's something I'd actually really like to do. I've never been in one of the proper massive facilities. I think it'll be really interesting to visit. Yeah, I think it's pretty cool. There's some pretty big ones there. We're going to riots and they're amazing. One of the big things we're working on this next quarter, because we write a mining report every quarter, the next thing we're focusing on is capital efficiency of Bitcoin mining companies.

So how long they stretch out the capital depreciation schedules varies a lot from Bitcoin mining competing for Rackspace with AI and looking at the pivot that some miners are making into AI to help improve capital efficiency. They're just data centers at the end of the day. They're just data centers, according to Fred Thiel. It's going to be interesting to see how many of them pivot to AI. Well, today's next guest, Texas West Capital. Maybe you guys can connect and travel Texas together. Absolutely. He's next guest, Texas West Capitol. Maybe you guys can, you know, connect and travel Texas. He's the king of West Texas. Come on. All right. Thank you, James.

Everybody follow Jay Butterfield on X. Always a pleasure to have you. Thanks for all the insight. Thanks, Scott. All right, guys, before I bring on Mr. Texas West Capitol himself, See you. Thanks, Scott. weeks. As you've heard me talk about them before, really cool. It takes away all the complexity about launching games and NFTs and participating in Web3, basically a platform. I like to liken it to WordPress for Web3. Nobody knew how to build a website. And then all of a sudden, these blogs where you could just install it and all of a sudden, you had a perfect website. Kind of the same thing for Web3. And actually, Carlos, the CEO, hopefully I'll interview him at some point, maybe even while we're here. I bumped into him yesterday.

He was like the first person I saw that I knew at ConsenSys, and we had never really talked in person. So it was great to catch up with him. He gave me the full download. You guys should definitely be checking out. They got really, really, really cool stuff. Maybe you guys can launch some games and tell me about it in the comments. Texas, man. Everybody's coming to Texas. It's all happening.

What's up, man? Are we going to Austin? Going to keep it weird, I guess. Yeah, I have a feeling it's going to be a really weird week. I don't know. But, you know, who knows? There's like karate combat here and David Hoffman was supposed to fight Nick Carter and then

I guess David Hoffman decided to I don't know if you saw this, this is like the big talk of consensus because they do these influencer fights now. BitBoy did the one or whatever. And David Hoffman was supposed to fight Nick Carter. And apparently David Hoffman was like, I've never really been in a fight. So in his one week of training, he was like, I'm going to go actually spar with someone and feel what it's like to be full contact. And he got hit once and broke his rib.

So he's not fighting. Yeah. It's tough, man. It's tough. You don't know what you're doing. It's tough if you know what you're doing, right? Fighting's hard. So, yeah, let's move on.

Maybe you'll catch us, catch you at Austin. But let's bring up your chart and see what you're looking at here. Yeah. So, you know, again um just kind of a reminder everybody i mean this you know big picture of bitcoin this is what we're looking at we're in this you know we popped out of this ascending channel off that bear market swing low there we just came back retested that and um i mean that's what we've done we were printing you know reaccumulation up here on it you see this this nice spring down here, pull back, retest on a much less volume than what we had here and popped out

through the resistance, you know, impulsively up to the top. And so, you know, again, usually what happens when we're talking Wyckoff, Wyckoff is this study of ranges. And ranges aren't really random, that they have structure to them. And so generally speaking, when you aren't really, uh, random that they have structure to them. And so generally speaking, when you're looking at, you know, at accumulation or reaccumulation, most of the time, what you'll get is you'll get, you know, either a spring down here, or there just won't be enough supply to even push it down below. So you'll get a last point of support above the range, um, support there. But when you, when you get to this point, this is phase C, phase D is this

interior markup. And usually what happens is you'll get this breakout just above the range resistance into this supply up here. And then you'll pull back and then you'll break out. And this breakout is what we're looking for. This is what we call the jump across the creek. The creek is that supply that's sitting at the top of this range here that's keeping it down. And so it should be a larger candle spread than what we see here, larger spike of volume as it finally kind of pushes through this area right here. And so this is the thing we're looking for. That's where, you know, if you're looking for. That's, that's where,

you know, if you're going to play breakouts, that's where you want to play it. Um, but you know, right now we have this pullback. It was almost 50% off this right here. So I've got, this is a one, two, one, two. Um, and so if this count is correct, and if this is done here, three of three has this 88,740 target. I don't know about you, but I kind of like that target. And then the larger degree wave three there. That's a long jump across the creek, as they're saying. But, you know, in all seriousness, when we kind of look at it here,

I mean, you know, how big is it really? I mean, if we look at, you know, from this, from this wave one here, I mean, that's only 23%. Now I'm not going to say, okay, well, Ethereum did it in a day. So, you know, Bitcoin is going to as well, but, you know, again, we do have, you know, I keep bringing it up. We have, you know, like 10 billion plus shorts sitting here on futures on CME sitting there, you know? And so you start pushing into that and all of a sudden, you know, they have to, you know, they have to cover. So all those short positions need to be converted to long. If they're not long, they need to go long as well. And so, you know, that just adds more of that kind of that thrust to the movement up. So, you know, that just adds more of that kind of that thrust to the movement up.

So, you know, until something else is happening different here, I mean, that's what I'm looking for. Now, it doesn't mean we can't pull back toward this yellow box here. Again, that's that kind of 65, 66,000 range. But if, you know, if we hold this right here, you know, we're going up, if we do this, you know, the target will be just, you know, maybe 85,000 or something a little bit shorter, but you know, it just, it looks like everything's set for this nice move up. You look at things like micro strategy as a, you know, if you look at the short float on micro strategy on Mara, even on right,

even on right, it's something like 18%, which isn't huge. But it just shows you how good the people are trying to short all these Bitcoin-related whatnot. So if this thing pops, which is kind of what I expect to do, I think we see, you know, if you're Bitcoin-adjacent stocks, if you're Bitcoin-centered stocks, I think you kind of flip up there as well. Get a bigger move. Yeah, get a bigger move. Or is everybody happy? So, yeah, at the end of the day, we're sideways, get a bigger move. So that's it. Yeah. At the

end of the day, we're sideways and we'll wait and see what happens next. But what does that have you looking at elsewhere? So, you know, I'm trying to look at some what we've got going here. Again, you know, we've talked last few weeks on the weekly. A lot of these alters start to look really like they're kind of doing well, getting ready to really kind of move. This is the daily GRT here. You can see we've almost reset down into oversold. We've already kind of broken out through that descending resistance there. So just looking for this kind of breakout above the swing high here at right around, what is that? 35, almost 36 cents. And I've got targets of about 53 cents and about 85 cents on this movement upward from that. So I think GRT is looking pretty

good. Again, if you jump out to the weekly, you can see that we're just getting ready to break out here. RSI found support on neutral, rallying back up, nearing a bullish cross. You can see we've got this pull back to the pivot and a strong move up through the R3. There's little reason to think it shouldn't at least hit that R5 on the weekly there, up there around $0.64 due to this impulsive movement off the support here. So GRT, I think, is looking good. If we jump here at ICP, again, another, you know, breakthrough the descending resistance here.

Retest, daily nearing reset down and oversold there. And so I'm looking, you know, for a breakout above this swing high here at around $13. And what is that? 85 cents. If we can get that, which I think we should, I think we head up here toward 18.862. And once we hit that, the odds are we're going to break out and head up higher as well. Once again, jumping out to the weekly, seeing the same kind of story, right? Stoke RSI reset and oversold, crossing bullishly.

RSI, you know, finding support around neutral. Price finding support on the pivot, rallying up. Let's pull back there, kind of looking for some movement. If you can zoom in just a little bit, just to get in there. Yeah, perfect. There we go. Maybe that.

Yeah. But yeah, so, you know, again, you've kind of got this break air. Just looking for that movement up, you know, locally to get that movement higher. And again, once we're there, you know, the odds are we're going to run this thing up here through probably the R4 at least, which would give us about 38 and a half, potentially even, the odds are we're going to run this thing up here through probably the R4 at

least, which would give us about 38 and a half, potentially even through the R5, which would give us, what is that, about $46. So again, you know, the same kind of weekly setup, and you're going to see this across most of your alts right now. If we jump here at AXS, again, this is the daily This daily we're kind of you know, toying around with the uh with the daily pivot here But if we can pop through this, uh, you can see we've got a wick right here and then a wick again right here around that eight dollars and 42 cent area We can do that. We should run up through the fair value gap up through nine dollars and 20 cents and I think actually push up into Just beyond the r1 pivot there at nine dollars and 20 cents and i think actually push up into just beyond the r1 pivot there at nine dollars

and 90 cents and uh once we do that then we've got a target up here about 12 and 16 cents um again jumping out to the weekly same idea you see the same thing we're going to keep seeing across all of them there so uh looks good um tia tia is one I want to talk about here real quick. They've had a good move this week. Again, the breakout. That looked like an epic rounding top. That was getting gross there, so they needed it. Yeah, yeah. And you got this nice wick down just halfway into this large candle here.

Basically, though, it's just hitting the same, that previous resistance of support right here, which I think is pretty good to watch. You see it's just hitting the same um their previous resistance of support right here which i think is pretty good to watch you see it's a little volume note i mean everything that you expect to happen there happened you had to pull back into the wick which is what i talk about a lot we often have when you have a big wick and now it's up i think we're up and so you know again i've got a local target here at twenty dollars and seventy cents um that's just part of the all-time high but i do think we kind of take that out and head higher on TIA as well. What else? I've got two more here. I've got DYDX here. It's setting up

for a potential breakout here of this kind of descending resistance. So this daily, we're up here over and over bought so we'll see what happens with this but really what i'm looking for again is that breakout above this um this swing high if we can get the breakout through the descending resistance i'm looking for a move up here toward this kind of this low volume node which is where we've got this wick at about $2 and 44 cents. We take that out. We should be able to, uh, fill up this fair value gap here up to around $2 and 90 cents. Uh, and then that'll take us up here. Next target $3 and 75 cents. But again, all these with these lower target, I mean, you know, they get in near the swing highs. I believe they'll

probably break out, uh, and head even higher overall. And finally, we've got flow here. I know flow was big talk for a while. Once again, you know, you've got this, we can kind of draw this here, this resistance right here, right where we hit. So we're looking for this breakout. You know, ultimately through this swing high here at almost about 95 cents. And once we get that again, should easily fill in the fair value gap here up

to around $1.17. And I'm looking forward to head up here to $1.45 and a half. But as I've been saying, we get up there, odds are we're going to break out there and head up even higher. And so even with this, I think a real quick target, uh, we can get up there around $2 and 77 cents on the breakout above the swing high. So, you know, again, all you have to, you know, when, when you're looking at charts, everybody gets very emotional, you know, they're like, Oh, it's not moving right this second. But you know, when you've had the big movement down and you've had the consolidation, you got to jump out to the weekly and say, OK, what's going on? What's going on out there? And then that's where, you know, these guys, they want to make the money the second they

get in. But that's where the work's done. You know, you know where you've got the consolidation going on after the big pullback. You know that you're nearing the end of that consolidation. You should be in. And that way you let everybody else FOMO in and buy in as it breaks out and then you can just ride it up

and you don't have to like stress out over it yeah that makes perfect sense I think we're one of those like watch and wait all these setups look good just gotta watch them see them pop to get us interested but I think a lot of potential out there exactly

alright well here we are in Texas come to Austin man let's go eat some barbecue or something to get us interested, but I think a lot of potential out there. Exactly. Exactly. All right. Well, here we are in Texas. Come to Austin, man. Let's go eat some barbecue or something. I'm trying to, man. I'm trying to. I'm about an hour and a half away. So I'm trying to make it happen. No excuse. Come on down, man. We got a lot going on here. Be great to see you. Everybody follow TX West Capital at X. I got to go run and gather my life together, get ready for spaces and then head over to the conference.

So thank you all. I'll be back tomorrow. I've got Haseeb Qureshi, one of my life together, get ready for spaces, and then head over to the conference. So thank you all. I'll be back tomorrow. I've got Hasib Qureshi, one of my favorite guests, tomorrow morning from Dragonfly Capital. Guy's awesome. So that should be a lot of fun. Thanks, Chris. I'm going to hold you to it.

I'll see you in the next two days. All right, man. Later, guys. Let's go. Let's go.