The Wolf Of All Streets - $49,000,000 Per Bitcoin!?

Episode Date: July 31, 2024

$49 million for Bitcoin - is it too much? What do you think? My guests, Zack Guzman, the founder of the Web3 media company Trustless Media and host of Coinage, Alex Tapscott, Managing Director of the Digital Assets Group at Ninepoint Partners are here to discuss this and more.  Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►► INTERACT WITH ME HERE 👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/cGE61iK ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code 'TENOFFSALE' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd  ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

$49 million per Bitcoin. How's that for clickbait? A humongous number to get you guys to watch, but it doesn't come from me. It's literally the bull case for Michael Saylor presented on stage in Nashville for Bitcoin in 2045. The base case was a casual $13 million. And the worst case scenario, $3 million Bitcoin by 2045. We're going to talk about this and everything else. I've got two amazing guests today, Alex Tapscott and Zach Guzman. Let's go. Let's go. What is up, everybody?

I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. 49 million per Bitcoin. It's fine. It's fine. I don't know how many Bitcoin you guys have, but it seems like if you just get a 10th of a Bitcoin right now and wait till 2045, you'd be pretty happy if you just had $4.9 million in Bitcoin. I think that would be good. I'm going to just go ahead and bring on the guests because I don't even know what to make of this. Alex, Zach, $49 million for Bitcoin. I'm going to keep repeating that. I'm going to tell you why he said it.

He said Bitcoin will gradually decelerate. That's decelerated. Bitcoin will gradually decelerate. So it's growing about twice as fast as the S&P index. At that rate, Bitcoin's $13 million a coin in 2045. Could be a $3 million bear case or a $49 million bull case. Let me ask you this, Alex, what does the world look like where Bitcoin's $49 million a coin? It's one where we're all on a beach, having a Mai Tai, taking it easy, enjoying the sunlight.

Yeah, but it's like the last slither of beach left after the nuclear holocaust and Mad Max apocalypse on the other side of the earth, right? Well, I mean, frankly, that's my real point of view, which is like, you know, it really depends on the value of the dollar in this context. Like, is Bitcoin going to be worth 49 million US dollars at the current rate of sort of dollar purchasing power over the next 15 years? I find that pretty hard to believe that would be, you know, four or five times the size of all listed US securities. It would be probably the value of, you know, most private and publicly traded assets in the world.

I think it translates to like $270 trillion. So that is a very, very big number. But it's not that big of a number if you think the US dollar is going to be debased significantly. And in fact, I can prove it because in front of me right here is a $100 trillion Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe note, which you'll see there's tape. I have this. I've had this taped on my monitor since I was 23 years old and I used to work. It's 24 now, guys. Yeah. But yeah, look, I mean, Bitcoin could be worth 18 quintillion dollars if the U.S. dollar goes to zero. Right. I mean, it could be worth an almost infinite number. That's your basis. So I really think it depends on your point of view. You know, what's more interesting to me, like, like obviously I think Bitcoin is a great asset and I think it's something that everyone should seriously consider keeping in their portfolio.

But what's more interesting to me is the idea of representing the world's assets on chain. So if you were to ask me in like 15 or 20 years, is there like a decent chance that all the world's publicly traded securities, private assets, real world assets, government debt, Bitcoin and other crypto assets, art collectibles, IP and anything really that requires scarcity to have value, if that's represented on chain, it's provably scarce. It's traded peer to peer using this as the technology platform that I can get behind, that I can believe. But I think the only scenario where we get to $49 million is where, you know, the denominator basically gets killed.

Yeah. So, Zach, he had a great comment here. He says $13 million is the Bitcoin base case when he tweeted it. And then Fred Thiel, who's the CEO of Marathon, said that means that if Marathon never adds another Bitcoin, our treasury would be worth $270 billion. It just puts in perspective how much money sort of people would have. I mean, I think this bear case of 3 million by 2045, that is a kind of a layup, assuming we continue on this same path. That's a far cry from 49 million. I mean, what do you make of this, the sort of thought process behind it? Do you think that he was just trying to get a big reaction from the audience i i mean i think you know when you when you step back obviously it's really difficult to project uh that far out in the you know 21 years we'd have to go to hit 2045 but i do think you know i'm in the same camp as you, Scott. I think anytime you're taking Michael Saylor's projections, you might want to water them down slightly. And I think his bear case is, you know, off the charts bull for a lot of people who aren't in Bitcoin. And when you make those adjustments, his bear case doesn't look that far off. I mean, you know, to the earlier discussion, I'm not necessarily in the camp that will oversee the U.S. dollar follow the Zimbabwe hyperinflation path just because, you know, if that happens, if the U.S. economy, the only one that really people flee to in times of trouble, is that bad off, then yes, I think we're probably at the conference, but I was, you know, from afar digesting everything.

And it didn't seem that crazy, just kind of given what we've seen. I mean, to get there at three million in terms of every kind of talking point that we've seen, whether it's companies or nations now allocating to Bitcoin, it's not too far off. So I wouldn't say it's crazy to talk about a three3 million price by 2045, given everything we've seen. Yeah, I mean, right. I mean, we need to 10x from here basically to hit gold, right? 1011x, so that puts us 700, 800,000. But you've got to imagine in this scenario, gold is also 5 or 10 or 20x, right? I don't think it's that crazy, but you have to just, it has to be because of inflation.

And not even necessarily the Zimbabwe hyperinflation. But, Zach, you obviously I think you spent time watching quite a bit of the conference, I would imagine. Yeah, it was my whole weekend, which I know it was yours, too. It was mine for sure. What were your highlights? I didn't intend to talk about this. And, Alex, I don't know if you watched it, but there were so many things that happened. It was almost hard to keep track of all of it. I think this Saylor speech, obviously, Trump, for me, and we'll get into it. It was Lummis. But I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Yeah, we did. We did a little bit of a recap at Coinage as well. But I think everything from James Seifert and his panel about ETFs and whether or not it's a passing fad or something that will also probably play a part in Michael Saylor's price target. He got, you know, the head of digital assets at BlackRock to basically say by Q4, they're going to see some of the huge wire houses start to allocate, which has been a huge question is when is UBS, one of the Morgan Stanley's of the world going to start getting involved? Q4 is not that far away. That was kind of a cool way to kick it off. And then, yeah, similarly, I mean, Trump's speech was great, but you also heard Senator Lummis talking about her $68 billion to Bitcoin. But even on top of that, Scott, I think something that gets lost in the shorter term

is this battle between Tether and USDC and Howard Lutnick at Tanner Fitzgerald kind of leaning into why stable coins matter was kind of surprising to hear. That could mean that the stable coin wars get even spicier this year. So I know we're talking a lot about things that might happen years down the road. But to me, there are a lot of huge headlines like that one from Lutnik talking about huge ramifications even months from now. Yeah, for those who missed it, I mean, Lutnik is the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, one of the largest asset managers, obviously, in the world. He has now reconfirmed that Tether is fully backed because they're holding it. He also said they own a shitload of Bitcoin, which I thought went completely unnoticed, which is basically saying Cantor Fitzgerald has Bitcoin on the balance sheet, and then also said they're going to start collateralizing Bitcoin for loans,

which I think a ton of people have been waiting to see from a major institution. But I do want to talk about stablecoins because it's a great point, Zach, and those have sort of been the killer app for crypto outside of Bitcoin, I think you could argue. And we have this interesting scenario there where USDC is obviously the darling of U.S. regulators, if there was one. It seems like some of the legislation proposed also by Lummis could effectively push Tether out because it's not issued by a United States bank. But then you have someone like Howard Lutnick and Cantor Fitzgerald, obviously, carrying the mantle for Tether. I mean, Alex, how do you think we start to see stablecoin legislation play out these wars, but also stablecoins proliferate into the future? Well, I mean, I think you're correct that stablecoins are one of the leading sort of killer apps for crypto.

I would also add that prediction markets, I think have entered that category too, especially this election. They've not only, you know, started to reflect current events, but actually helped to lead and influence them. And I think that's kind of very significant. But on the stablecoin point, you know, stablecoin total assets outstanding right now is nearly back to, excuse me, the all time high that we saw in the prior cycle. But I really do think that we're just getting started. My point of view is that stable coins are just a much better way to move value between individuals and institutions and businesses, whether the dollar value is big or small.

They're a global payment rail. They're internet native. And I think they're eventually going to consume almost every other way in which we move money around the world. But that doesn't mean that there's only going to be one system to rule them all. I think Tether is very similar to the euro dollar system that emerged after the Second World War, where basically there's U.S. dollar deposits held offshore in European banks. And those dollar deposits go towards funding business development, funding government spending. They're used as a savings tool for people outside of the United States who want to

keep value in dollar denominated assets. And we've seen this already play out in the past. And history, in a way, is repeating itself. So I can see a world where USDC is sort of the version that the US exports to the world, if in fact we do get some enlightened legislation, where it's used widely between American institutions and individuals, where US foreign nationals use it as a way to repatriate money back to the United States, which is something that's already happening, actually, in pretty large scales in places like

Africa and Latin America. If you're in Nigeria, you're earning dollars as Coca-Cola selling in Naira. The first thing you want to do is convert it. The easiest way to do that in those countries is not using Correspondent Banking Network or SWIFT. It's actually to move it to USDC and settle it into an account in the United States. Right. So this is already happening. And I can see us ending up with a sort

of a two pronged system or three pronged system for the U.S. dollar. I also think that stable coins are really just the first example of real world assets being represented on chain. Right. It just so happens that the asset that kind of everybody wants in the world is U.S. dollars, a way to store value in dollars that allows them to protect against inflation relative to their local currency. Saylor's comments about U.S. inflation and so forth notwithstanding, for most people in the world, the U.S. dollar is a way better option, right? So that was the first thing that we saw kind of hit where the rubber hit the road.

But I think eventually you start to see almost any other asset represented on chain and probably them trade with a pair being either USDC or USD2. Yeah, I say it all the time. I mean, Bitcoiners love the idea of people protecting themselves in Bitcoin, which, by the way, you mentioned Nigeria. Actually, that is happening in Nigeria with Bitcoin specifically and stable coins. But most of the world, when Millet came in in Argentina, people expected hyper

Bitcoinization. No, he said, we're going to move to the dollar, right? Because it's still a massive improvement from their own inflating currency. But most people in the world are just moving small amounts of Tether on Tron. Nobody cares about Tron, but it's cheaper, it's faster, and it's the wallet your friend says, download this so that I can send you some money, right? And so it's faster and it's the wallet your friend says, download this so that I can send you some money. Right. And so it's very much proven that stable coins are the thing that most people are going to want everywhere in the world. But, you know, speaking of USDC and Tether, Circles private stock valued up to five point two five billion on secondary market. That's a pretty big number. They're looking again, kind of in a quiet S1 filing to go public. They had the failed IPO basically in 2021, I think was through a SPAC or something, but it just effectively fell apart. But I mean, Zach,

what does it look like when we get a stable coin that's publicly traded in the United States? Not the stable coin, the company, but it's effectively what it looks like. No, I mean, it's huge. I remember when they were thinking about that SPAC plan and kind of the market that they'd be coming out into. I think, you know, that's one part of crypto right now that's a little bit untested in terms of companies trying to go public and what their valuations will be. $5 billion is a pretty large jump from, I think, where talks were when they were looking at their SPAC plans. And no surprise. I mean, USDC has kind of gone through it. That was another point of this kind of back and forth that Howard Lutnick was bringing up is like, look, USDC de-pegged in that SVP collapse. Don't forget about that. And so, you know, that was kind of spicy. And you think about stable coins, they're not very sexy, Scott, but they are kind of fun to watch some of the politics and maneuvering around it. And USDC or Circle rather coming to market as the company behind you, STC, would be kind of huge. Because I think if it does happen, it does happen at a valuation at large. It shows kind of where

the market regulators are, where politicians are. And you had a great interview with Ro Khanna as well. I'll shout that one out. Kind of where these companies are in terms of getting the green light to go to public market. And that's not a sure thing, as we saw with the scrap SPAC plan. So as much as it is kind of a valuation conversation, it's also just kind of like a, you know, approval of one of the largest and other kind of traditional financial players who are trying to get a piece of the pie in introducing their own stable coin, where politicians might shift and what those bills might look like if they are going to try and elbow Tether out. You're going to need the Howard Lutnick's of the world to come to defense for them. So I don't know. I think it's getting pretty interesting.

I think it's absurd for them to be elbowed out. But go ahead, Alex. Well, I was going to say, I mean, five billion dollars sounds like a big number um but that wouldn't if it was like a crypto asset it'd be like the 26th largest crypto asset you know it's like how is the problem with crypto right and that is it interesting though to consider that you know this thing that occupies so much mind share like the way we think about it um it's got the same would have the same market cap as pepe uh you know i'm just i mean the market is in the long term it's a weighing machine so you know eventually if it stays at that price long enough that's what it's worth but um i do think it's

sort of interesting you know that because everyone often talks about the insane economics of Tether, right? The fact that basically they take in deposits and they earn a risk-free return of like 4% to 5%, right? They take it and they buy short-term U.S. Treasury or they put it in bank deposits. And like on $100 billion of circulating supply, just rough math, call it $4 billion of revenue from that. That's about transaction fees, right? Yeah. And your cost as a business, as I understand it, they employ fewer than 100 people, right? Now, Circle's a very different company. They're in the United States. They're regulated in the United States. They have overhead for compliance and they've got all sorts of other costs within the business. But even still, I'd love to know what the what the top line revenue is i don't know if that's been publicly reported yet but

you know if sir if usdc's got i don't know whatever it is 25 billion dollars um you know the market cap right now of usdc is 33.41 billion. So call it $1 to $1.5 billion of revenue, roughly speaking. And $5 billion is nothing. Yeah. I mean, it depends. How much of that are they taking home? Are they taking home $100 million of that? Is it $800 million of it?

What's their share of the revenue from that? I know that Coinbase is an investor too. Anyway, I'm just sort of spitballing here, but I would be curious to know, what is the multiple that they're using? Are they using a six times earnings multiple for a business, like a high growth business? Or is the earnings number a lot smaller than we think it is because there's much more costs associated with this? There's other owners and so forth. This is information I don't know, but I would be curious to learn more because like just on its face, you know, circle at five billion. That seems like pretty attractive. Right. I mean, not investment advice, but I don't know. Yeah. 2023 adjusted EBITDA was like eight hundred and twenty million.

Right. So it's I mean, that's a lot. Six times, six times EBITDA. I think also, you know, just to jump in on the connection to coinbase obviously they have uh investment relation with circle and also i think have put it also give up 50 of their revenue i think they give up 50 of their revenue to coinbase or something i heard but yeah yeah go ahead well i think i mean i think you know them being partners definitely shows how much coinbase has leaned into it being their stable coin of choice in terms of everything that we talked about and hyperinflation around the world. If everything shifts to USDC and you've got Coinbase as your on-ramp partner, I mean, I think there is something to be said about that partnership. And Brian Armstrong certainly being in prime position, we'll see how some of these legal cases go.

But definitely the fact that they're here in the U.S. I think will increasingly matter. And so $5 billion does seem small. I think it's probably a proxy bet in terms of how you see some of those regulatory battles going. It's probably hard to value based on market cap because we don't know what's going to happen with interest rates. Right. So Tether became such an incredible business because interest rates soared. If we go back to a Zerp environment, these become, I think, much less attractive businesses. But then there's also the argument that, you know, to your point, there could be transaction fees associated with it. You know, there are other

services that they can add on top, you know, value added services. Like right now, they're making money. But eventually this feels like a commodity business, right? Like why can't someone launch their own stable coin and, you know, pay out 4% yield to whatever wallet address the person is paying it into or holding it in, right? Like, I just don't see why that, I know there are regulatory reasons of security, blah, blah, blah. But like just from a purely technical business perspective, you know, it's like, yeah, why is one company's taking home all the net interest margin from this kind of relationship? It's like, well, just put the 4%, take 20 beeps and put the rest in the

person's account. Like that's something people might consider using as well, right? Yeah, absolutely. I do want to dig in since we have a little bit of time left to what Lummis was proposing here, because I think this was really the announcement of the conference. U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve to be funded partly by revaluing Fed's gold. That was interesting as well. Draft bill show. So listen, this is a bill. She can propose it.

Rarely do these get through. Let's just be honest. Right. But the very fact that Trump sort of hinted at it, but then Lummis came out and actually held up a bill, legislation that's going to hit the floor, really impactful. And she basically said, we're going to buy 200,000 Bitcoin per year for five years. So we have a million Bitcoin. That'd be roughly 5% of the supply of Bitcoin, more if you consider lost Bitcoin. And we are committed to holding it for 20 years. Now, she made some wild claims like that this would cut the national debt in half.

I would love to see that math. Maybe we need Saylor's Bull case for that to happen in 20 years. We need $49 million for Bitcoin. But this is real legislation that will hit the floor, national, international news. Now, maybe to me, it's unlikely it happens. And it's really cool clickbait. It's a great story. But after this and Trump, don't you think that every government and central bank in the world now has to at least be thinking about it? That's the story to me. I mean, even I think a

Chinese minister even talked about adding Bitcoin as a global reserve asset this week. Right. Yeah. I think it was Hong Kong. I saw that happen. I think to your point, Scott, I think there are two things and the market is a discounting mechanism. So we're going to say, all right, what's the probability of this going through? Maybe not high. But even on the flip side, even in Trump's speech, which came right before that announcement was just, hey, let's just hold on our Bitcoin, right? Which is like 15 billion, 16 billion that the US owns. Even that by itself was talking with Fundstrat Sean Farrell, like even that by itself would be huge, because Germany tried to dump 3 billion, look at how much of an impact it had on the market tanked. And so if you think about 15

billion, just being held, that doesn't need necessary Congress approval. And so that by itself, I think is pretty huge. But to your point, I think it does move the needle, the Overton window shifted, you already have Democrats coming out and saying, look, we should probably be in the same camp. And so it suddenly looks a little less crazy that a bill like that might pass. I don't know who's to say what happens post-November. But I do think certainly that one versus what Trump wants to do is a little bit out there on the on the passability, didn't say strategic asset. He said strategic stockpile, I think was the terminology he used. And he said we would do that by not selling any more Bitcoin, basically. So taking the confiscated Bitcoin and holding that forever.

I'm sure Bitfinex has something to say about that since it was confiscated a lot of it from them in a hack. But then we saw the United States government immediately move a lot of that Bitcoin, which they've been selling from Silk Road. Seems like maybe just unfortunate timing, but it'd be pretty bananas if the current government was now trying to sell more of that ahead of Trump potentially becoming in office.

Although I'm going to guess they were just moving it to custody. I mean, I doubt they were. Yeah, I think it was just bad timing. So, I mean, how do you do that on chain? Just the lack of any sort of like realization of what's happening right now is unbelievable. I mean, Zach, you follow all of this very closely. Obviously, we've seen sort of this thawing. Do you think that now that Trump has come out,

whether it's genuine or not, I think he will have smart advisors around him if he wins and this will be wildly favorable for crypto. Do you think that if Harris wins, guys, it's still possible. I know nobody in, but if she wins, do you think that we will still see massive improvement in the way that this is handled by the government because it's become so unpalatable to be anti-crypto? Or do you think we get a whole lot of talking points and then still a very aggressive sort of tack towards the industry watching this play out aren't naive. They know that the money influences politics. I think it's not surprising to see that maybe that's what kind of triggered a lot of maybe the Republican shift even more. They weren't necessarily as antagonistic as Democrats were,

but they've certainly shifted even friendlier by speaking about it openly and Trump going to the Bitcoin conference. And so I think, you know, I watched your interview with Ro Khanna. I watched Representative Wiley Nickel get booed for kind of bringing up, hey, maybe you shouldn't trust Trump on Bitcoin because he's flip-flopped before. And I'm actually going to be chatting with Congressman Nickel on Friday. And so I think, you know, he claims to be the one who's been shifting kind of Democrats being more Democratic friendly. You've got Novogratz saying that, you know, huge Democrat donor, that that's where the party is going to go to. So I think your point earlier on kind of like what Trump's position does globally, in terms of

the US saying they want to use this as a strategic reserve. Even here in the country, you're seeing it play out with Democrats now saying like, look, this is a losing position for us. We don't want to be caught on the wrong side of this. And there's money to be had. So I think even internally here, we're seeing it and we probably will see it over the next 90 days as Harris puts her platform together. But it sounds like that's already kind of the direction Dems are going. Alex, I've got like two more minutes. So final thoughts, then Zach, if you could stay for like two minutes after I have another question for you. Yeah, for sure. I mean, add my name to the list of people that's very skeptical of Donald Trump. All you need is to

have been alive for more than eight years to remember that he was already the president, and that he changes his mind on policy issues when it's personally convenient. And I think that right now, he sees a captive audience that's got a lot of money that can help to, you know, fuel his campaign. But whether or not the guy who purportedly tried to ban Bitcoin, and we all remember him tweeting about this, saying, you know, I'm not a fan. It makes the dollar weak. I hate weakness, all this stuff. Like, do you really think that guy's changed?

Like, I just am so skeptical of this sort of turn to Trump. And I think it's actually kind of embarrassing for a lot of people. At the same time, obviously, the Democrats so far have shown themselves not to be fans. And, you know, I think that this reset that the Democrats are talking about, I'm equally skeptical of that, too. I'm just not convinced that I think maybe that they don't want to lose the audience entirely and that they're trying to pander. But there's been no real follow through.

The one thing I will give credit to the Republicans on is that even though it was clear that Trump had no idea what he was saying on stage, he did say a lot of the right things. So clearly there are people close to him who are advising him, who I think are are knowledgeable and do understand these issues. And at least for the time being they've got his ear yeah I know you got to go Alex thank you so much um Zach if you'll just stay for another minute because there's something I want to talk to you about okay thanks guys Alex bye so Zach a lot of the news right now obviously surrounding the ethereum ETFs uh actually I saw which was, that we finally had some inflows on that, even with the ETH sell-offs, which is good because ETH is a 2.5% fee and there's no way that thing doesn't

go a trend towards zero with time. A lot of predictions about what would happen. But you had an incredible interview with Hester Peirce that kind of went viral. And I want to talk about this because it really goes in line with what we're discussing here is that we have this contentious SEC. We have the Democrats in power. We saw that the Ethereum spot ETFs were approved sort of in this like everything's on fire, 24 hour process and staking had been removed from them. But I thought it was astounding that you got Hester Peirce to say, I mean, why don't you just tell us what you said? Because it was what, two weeks ago, something like that? Yeah, it was two weeks ago. And I mean,

thank you for flagging. And I feel like, you know, it kind of somewhat went under the radar, because at this point, maybe some people are discounting what Hester Peirce says, which I feel like would be a mistake, because she's clearly been kind of pushing the needle and moving that agency in a more pro crypto direction. She predicted that we would have, you know, the Ethereum ETFs approved without a legal battle. That's exactly what played out. And she did that back in January. So she was right on that. And yeah, she said that staking would be open to be revisited at the SEC, that you could have potentially these ETFs add that in, which obviously would be huge because it would, you know, allow them to

earn what roughly 4%, I think, on everything that they hold, which is not necessarily something right now that is possible on the Bitcoin side. And so, you know, that definitely improves the kind of way that people would look at the Ethereum ETFs. But I think it also just signals that, you know, that could be the direction the SEC moves in terms of being more pro-crypto or crypto-friendlier, or at least open to reconsidering some of the things that didn't get added the first time, whether it's cash redemptions or other things that they've disallowed in the past. I know you were chatting with VanEck and their idea of Solana ETFs maybe being approved sooner than people expect. That could be another thing that she was laying out in terms of what the agency needs to see.

But I think it just goes to show that you do have Hester Peirce battling behind the scenes there at the SEC. And it's not only what Gary Gensler wants, even though he's chair. It does seem like the tides have shifted in terms of the ETFs getting approved and now also potentially staking being revisited soon. Absolutely. All right, Zach, thank you so much for your perspective. Guys, both Zach and Alex, you can find their X tags down in the description. Please follow them. Absolutely great. And Zach is by far one of the best interviewers in the business as well, beyond the fact that he's a great media personality and has great content at Coinage. So I really encourage that you follow him and follow them as well.

Thanks, Scott. Appreciate it, man. Thanks, Zach. See you soon. Once again, we dared have someone on who was skeptical of Trump. So you guys are angry in the comments. I know how that goes. I will once again give my opinion is that I will give the benefit of the doubt that Donald Trump, like every skeptic in history, including Michael Saylor, is on the path, right? Guys, you don't have to get triggered when someone says something potentially negative. There's a reason not to trust politicians. I

think that's fair, Donald Trump or otherwise. We know that it started as a political talking point. There's no question there. But I'm going to believe that either he will hire exceptionally good advisors who will be beneficial to the industry, as he said he would. I take him at his word on that. Or that he will slowly just become orange-pilled like all of these billionaires and politicians of the past that have slowly made their way through that process. So, guys, it's not... You should be skeptical of Donald Trump. And you should be skeptical of Kamala Harris and maybe even RFK, who I support because you never know what's going

to change or what they would do if they were actually in office. But for both Biden-Harris administration and the Donald Trump administration, we have three to four years of experience of what they did and not what they said. And every person, when they do something, you should pay attention to it. We know exactly what they did. He was anti-Bitcoin for four years. His SEC went after Ripple. They did not help the crypto industry.

I'm hoping that his pivot is genuine or will become so. And I think that it's a huge net positive. It's fine. Nobody's hating on him. We're not creating a panel of anti-Trumpers. Unbelievable. All right. I'm going to bring on Chris right now. And like I said, I'm skeptical of everybody. I don't like politicians that much. Chris, what's up? I'm not going to make you talk about politics. Ah, well, you know, politics are politics, man. You know, it is what it is. Everybody's got a job that they want. And you say what they need politics, man. You know, it is what it is. Everybody's got a job that they want.

And you say what they need to tell you to get there, right? Yeah. So now tell me who you're voting for. I'm just kidding. Okay, now let's dig into some charts because I think we're in an interesting spot actually right now with Bitcoin. Don't forget Grayscale's mini Bitcoin ETF is launching today, $1.7 billion in that.

And that's got that 0.15% fee. So that starts today, that launches today. So we'll see how that does. They've had about 18, almost 19 billion outflow of their main fund there, their Bitcoin fund since it launched. I mean, that's huge. That's huge. And yet they still hold quite a bit. Right. So other than that, I mean, you know, Bitcoin is big. It's range bound. It's what it is. I mean, I feel like a broken record for four months, four plus months here, but that's

all it's been. There's been no real reason to worry about it breaking down at the tops in anything like that, that a lot of people out there trying trying to convince everybody about. And so now we're kind of sitting in this area. We've got, it looks like maybe we've got potentially a bit of hidden bullish divergence here on RSI on the daily. And that was after I was going to show the same thing. There was a bear div first. So that got me pretty, but if we can get this move up, we need to close here higher, though. It looks like it's doing good right now. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. And so if we get that, I would be looking toward the all time high here right around on this chart, almost 74,000. If if for whatever reason we were to rally up here and kind of get rejected and come down, I could see us potentially getting down here around the, uh, the EQ of this range, uh, about 61, three to 62,

three in that area. Uh, but man, if we got that, you better be buying, you know, in that area or looking for a reason to buy in that area, because, you know, again, don't catch falling knives, but we get down there and you zoom into like, you know, the one hour, the four hour timeframe, you see a reason to buy in there. You should be because that next one would be, you know, that third wave out, right? That big move out. But I'm not convinced we get that. I think we get this little pop up here toward, you know, this all time high. Maybe we peek out just above it, trap some breakout traders, then pull back down toward this 65,000 area, maybe 64, 65,000 area. Uh, and then we get the big move. So that's what I'm thinking. I don't, I don't think that we would go say from here and just

break out, just kind of rally up to 80,000 or anything like that. Big picture is we'll keep this simple guys, based on the, uh, the height of this pullback here, uh, you know, breaking out into new all-time highs, you can have there. So to eventually see us rallyingback here, uh, you know, breaking out into new all-time highs, you can have there. So to eventually see us rallying up here around 90,000 or potentially around 101,000. And again, that's just, um, easy, quick based off the, uh, the height of the pullback. Uh, but again, you know, we've got the, uh, our five pivot up here on the weekly, uh, up there around 117,000 and a half. And I think that's a potential target there. I've been talking about that all year long.

And potentially even, of course, much higher. But just locally here, breaking out should get us probably at least 90,000. I have a question for you. I've looked at that on the daily. Now pop back to the weekly, please. All right. Just on your chart yeah so on the daily it looks like it cannot possibly be considered a bull flag because it's

so long you know it's been consolidating so long but when you pull out to the weekly that looks like a textbook bull flag yeah um i i think you know if we look at classical if we look at classical charting you know it should a bull flag is like a few weeks basically. So when you're getting it into months, it disqualifies, disqualifies it on that account. Um, but really it's just, it's just a range here. You can see the volumes dropped off through it, but then volume picked up right down here. This spring rallied up in two weeks, just almost took out all these multiple weeks here heading back up there. So, I mean, it looks clean. It looks nice. Um, there, you know, we don't, we don't have, you know, even any kind of bearish divergence here in, uh, in RSI or in volume, which are things we look for when we're getting toward the tops. Like, uh, for instance,

right here, we have this bearish divergence right there. Um, and you know, of course we even have it, Oh, well, I guess kind of from here to here, you can say that you've got higher volume. What was actually in this area here, lesser volume up here. Uh, so, you know, you get those volume divergences, you get those RSI divergences usually at the tops of those cycle areas. And we don't have any of that here. Uh, so again, little reason to believe that the top's even in yet. Um, so, you you know as i see a question there has retail even arrived i would say no uh we might get some of them jumping in when we finally break out but i think once we hit a hundred thousand i think that's i was gonna say at this point i think it's a hundred because we saw that breaking 69 did nothing yeah exactly exactly going to the 70s i

we were like new all time high. It'll be mainstream, everybody. It's just honestly, man, it's just not that time of the cycle. I laugh. We're sitting here. We're sitting here at sixty six thousand seven hundred. That's the same price as when Trump made a full pivot. We've had three months of this like insane good news and price is either the same or lower than it was when that happened. Yeah. And, you know, the news is not doing longer. I didn't expect it to take four plus months here to break out. But, you know, again, that's why, you know, people are always like, oh, well, you know, when you give them targets, they're like, oh, well, when's that going to hit? Well, I don't know. Whenever it hits,

you know, the one thing I learned in the last 30 years of doing this is I am no good at timing. And so I gave that up because that was losing me money. And I just focus on levels now. You focus on levels of proper risk management. You have more than enough capital to continue to invest in trade. And you don't have to worry about timing. And I'll tell you what, when you're not worried about timing, you sleep a lot better at night. Because you're not worried about it didn't get up today or tomorrow

or yesterday or whatever doing that. So anyway, love it. Looks good, I think, uh, still right here, by the way, we've also basically have some, um, some hidden bullish divergence here. If you look at this, uh, January low here up to this, um, July low on the weekly. So we've got again, that hidden bullish divergence there finding support at the ours at the neutral and threatening to kind of break out bullishly here so lots of room left on stoke rsi again guys i'm just trying to say stop talking about the the top is in you know stop crying stop uh you know being chicken

little and crying that the sky's falling it's not we should uh we should see a new all-time high um we're gonna need that retail way for any of these all coins to go up though yeah well we've got something in here um the king of the all coins here ethereum right uh again pretty well considering et sell-off man i thought i thought we were gonna get like 25 percent dip uh like you know we got 20 on bitcoin with the et and EFE is relatively larger with higher fees. So I'm pretty surprised. Yeah. Yeah, it's done. It's done reasonably well. I mean, definitely better than what we would expect with the outflows we've had. But again, we're just, you know, again, just doing this reaccumulation. Same as Bitcoin looking to get out based on the height

of this pullback that gives us a 5170 target.'s a new all-time high um but i'm actually looking up here close to around 6400 and so you know it's kind of the next target up beyond that so you know again nothing same thing i've been talking about you know since since june over here i've been talking about the new all-time high by the way what's interesting is we did have this consolidation up to this resistance. And if we actually, usually with these things, we'll take the height of that and we'll look for the 200%. So we double that as the target. And that's right there at that initial target as well, right around that 5,200 area. So Ethereum to me still continues to look good there. We'll just look for it to break out and continue up there.

I've got HN. What was that? I said, what else are you looking at? But you just went, anyways, you're good. HNT here. I've got HNT. We've got this daily. We've got the reset on Stoke RSI here.

We've got the pullback happening. We could continue back here down toward the swing low here at around four and a half dollars or so uh but you know looking for us to get this this wave 503 up here about six dollars and 43 cents get another pullback here give us the way five up there around seven dollars and 77 cents so overall looking for uh you know potentially a bit more of a pullback here and then get that breakout higher to get us that thing. So once we're breaking out above this wave B here at $5.72 or so, we should be looking up toward that $6.43 area.

Maker is one I've talked about more than a few times. We've had a few good couple of trades here. Big pictures, we've got this nice breakout here. We've had a few good couple of trades here. Big pictures. We've got this nice breakout here. We've got large candle spreads. We've got volume expansion. This is what we call a trend. So you get the candle spreads getting larger and larger. You got volume expanding, whether it's down or up. That's what we're looking for. So we got it. I believe we've got a wave four pullback here well we can probably rally up here a little bit and then pull back and then get the breakout but wave five should see us

coming up there about 3500 3522 kind of area um based upon just the again the height of the pullback here so i like that one still continues to look good uh pyth here i just don't want to say pith or pipe um i have no clue what it does as usual it solves it's during cancer oh yeah aren't they all um anyway yeah so i think uh as i'm looking here i think we've got a one and a just a really deep two here so we need the breakout above wave b here at 50 cents, basically, to kind of add confidence to that and signal that we'll probably be breaking out to new all-time highs.

Locally here, I think I'm going to look for, see if we can get a little bit further pullback here to about 34.2 cents. And if we can get that and rally back out of that, we're going to look up here toward that 45 cent target area and that's just locally and the idea being we get the pullback the rally up there and then the rejection and pullback down here at about 32 and a half cents and then that gives us the bigger push out um to head up there toward you know 75 cents beyond that um so again looks like there's a pretty

decent setup there we've got a little bit further We need to pull back here on the daily that we could pull back to reset Stoke RSI. And that could get us down there to that 38 to pull back. Um, again, right there at about 34.2 cents. Uh, we've got vet here. It's another one I've talked a few times about. Uh, I think big picture is a one and two is done locally here. We've got a bit of a deep way for pullback, but still just beyond the 50%. I think big picture is a one and two is done locally here. We've got a bit of a deep way for pullback,

but still just beyond the 50%. So if we can get a breakout here in this descending resistance, impulsive breakout and close above it on the daily, you know, here we are coming back up here toward neutral and, and potentially to cross bullishly there on RSI Stoke RSI reset down here and oversold crossing bullishly. Hedy tried to head on its way here to break out. So, you know,

I think we get that, uh, that'll give us a wave five target up here of, um, 0.03946 based on again, the height of the pullback. Uh, but the idea would be we'd hit that we'd reject pull back down here to about

where we are. And then we get the bigger breakout to head up there. So a lot of these looking real similar, a lot of these alts, right? Got to talk about Saul. Haven't stopped talking about it since the end of 23. Because it never stops looking good. I mean, look at this, Charles. It's it's beautiful i mean people were freaking out here because we went sideways for a while but man look at that rally afterward here we are catching our breath and just reaccumulating again volume profile looks good with the range here uh we did get the breakout of this down here at around 148 dollars i could zoom in a little bit here around there around 14148 or so.

Rallied on up here to $193. I could see us potentially getting a bit higher here toward the top of the range before we pull back. But either way, I would normally expect, you know, a pullback before we get the big breakout. Initial target 301. But I do think we head up here toward 410, which is the weekly R5 pivot, as you can see up here. And so it's just it's a pretty, you know, pretty impulsive, strong move up through off the pivot here up through the R2. So that makes me think we'll probably really get up here at least at 410 area. But, you know, locally 301. I don't think would be complaining about that except for everybody to keep hating on Sol.

Anybody who didn't buy it and thinks it's going to zero would hate that. All I see in the chat is people talking about Ripple, by the way. Yeah, XRP has been interesting. It's been pumping, but look at where it's at right there if you draw it that way. Yeah. But it's the one that hasn't really you know moved to you can see there you've got all that sideways from july of last year basically

but man look at that so yes i mean that tapped it today perfect wow and you know what they say what you know one is a point two points is a line three points is a trend so if you've got a line with three touches on it or more uh you know you should is a trend. So if you've got a line with three touches on it or more, you know, you should consider a trend line. So if you get an impulsive breakout and close above it, you should consider that that's been a flip of the, you know, it was down prior. And so now it's looking to go up.

So yeah, you know, XRP again, hated by many, but things are what they are. Beloved by many, also beloved by many. I was going to bring up the other one. We also had that line, I guess, that drawn before but yeah pretty wild that's a wild chart yeah so it looks good and i posted something as well there i um reposted somebody else's thing they're talking about the uh the number of uh wallets that are holding 10 000 xrp or above always from sentiment i think is where it was from um says those are reaching new highs again

so you know people been uh picking them up you know what are you gonna do right i mean i i think honestly i think litecoin is going to be another one's going to freak some people out uh you know everybody thinks it's dead and everybody wants to you know crap on it but long to the the big picture the multi-year picture is kind of scary when you look at it for how far it could actually pop up um so you know something i've talked about over the last few years and i i you know will it do it we'll see but damn the chart says it will and people are going to freak out because they've just been claiming how dead it is you know so we'll see we'll see they said it was dead last cycle when it went up whatever exactly happens every time you got anything else or we cover them all?

No, I think that those are the ones I'm really kind of looking at at the moment here as far as crypto goes. I think PayPal, you know, I got that PayPal bottom there at $50, you know, and it rallied up and it's pulled back here. And I think it's ready to continue rallying now. So if you're into stocks, I think PayPal is looking pretty good for uh we call them stonks here stonks oh my bad stonks i'm not in with these the way the kids talk about it today you're not allowed to call them stocks all right guys follow tx west capital of course on x check out his youtube check out all of his shows, Beards and Bitcoin and Beards and Bitcoin and Beards

and Beards and Bitcoin with Tillman. I can't even get Tillman to show up to ours now. You got him. I had a great dinner with those guys, though, man. I would not want to fight Andrew and Tillman. Big guys. For anybody that doesn't

know, Tillman was For anybody that doesn't know. Monster human. Tillman. Tillman was, you know, offensive lineman there at the University of Texas. So, yeah, he's a, in case you don't understand just what size that guy is, he's a big guy. I'm trying to get him into karate combat, but we can't find anyone his size to fight him. Seriously.

He was like, I want to do that. He's like, that's my dream. He's like, I can probably get you paid. He's like, I'll pay them. I want to fight. All right. So that was all I needed to know that I never wanted to be on Tillman's bad side. There it is. Right. Exactly. All right, guys. Thank you. That's all we got. We'll see you next week. Thanks, Chris. Thanks. Take care.