The Wolf Of All Streets - A Massive Bitcoin Crash Is Coming | Peter Schiff

Episode Date: April 28, 2024

In this episode of The Wolf Of All Streets podcast, Peter Schiff, a prominent stockbroker and gold investor, discusses why Bitcoin and gold are so different, explains his belief that the price of gold will continue to rise, and predicts that Bitcoin will experience the biggest crash in its history. Peter Schiff: https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff ►► Sponsored by iTrust Capital Invest in Bitcoin, Crypto Assets & Gold with Your IRA Using iTrust Capital. 👉 https://bit.ly/itrust-scott ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘25OFF’ FOR 25% OFF WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd  ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Gold Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:22 Bitcoiners and goldbugs 2:10 Macro environment  6:10 The price of gold will increase faster than the cost of mining 6:45 iTrustCapital 7:43 Can Bitcoin replace gold? 11:10 Safe haven  13:25 Bitcoin is a risk asset 14:40 ETFs will be a big problem for Bitcoin 17:00 Big crash 20:30 Who sold Bitcoin? 22:50 RIAs 26:51 Trading Bitcoin miners 28:30 Buy Bitcoin, short Microstrategy 29:25 Inflation against gold miners 33:00 Gold speculation 34:50 60/40 Portfolio 38:10 Who buys gold 39:30 Gold on blockchain 42:20 Volatility 43:45 Dollar is a problem 48:00 US to default? 51:20 Demand for gold will increase 52:55 Gold supply 54:10 Peter Schiff & Bitcoin 56:48 Wrap up The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

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Gold. Bitcoin. Gold. Bitcoin. Gold. Bitcoin audience effectively. But it's my belief that 99% of the beliefs of gold bugs and Bitcoiners are exactly the same. We just stumble at the finish line deciding which asset is superior and which one is the better hedge against the insanity that's coming. This was an incredible conversation with Peter Schiff. I look forward to having more of them in the future and seeing who's right and who's wrong. Are you pro or con on Bitcoin?

I'm a pro Bitcoiner. I mean, this is effectively a Bitcoin podcast, but I guess we can start and we can just talk about it. Does that work? All right. All right. I just don't know what all you Bitcoin podcasters are going to do after Bitcoin. Yeah, let's talk about it. I wouldn't say I'm only a Bitcoin podcaster, so I think that I will manage to survive no matter what happens here. I've long been of the position that Bitcoiners

and gold bugs actually have a lot more in common than we would admit. Probably 99% of our beliefs are the same, and it's the 1% where we stumble as to which is the asset to protect us from the very same problem. So I'd rather focus on what those problems are and why you feel so passionately about gold than to argue about the 1% part, which is the Bitcoin. So maybe we can start with discussing where we are from a macroeconomic perspective and why you think people need gold now more than ever. Yeah, I mean, I would agree. Probably, you yeah i mean i would agree probably you know the hardcore bitcoiners you know the people that have been in it for a long time i mean not the ones

that are buying the etfs right now but the people who have been there uh maybe not from the very beginning but they've been there you know uh for years and years and they're there for the philosophical reasons they they you know they They're free market, libertarian. They understand these macro issues. Yeah. I mean, I think there's a lot of common ground there. But I think that a lot of people who have bought Bitcoin over the last few years really are not that into the macro.

I mean, they kind of just bought it. It was going up and they kind of jumped on the bandwagon. And so there's a lot of people that own Bitcoin. You know, it's not really about the fundamentals. It's, hey, this is a new thing. It's going up. Everybody says it's going higher. I want to get in on it or the FOMO stuff. So you have a lot of those people that are in crypto now. But getting to the fundamentals of why I tell people that they should own gold. And again, I don't tell people to only own gold or I don't even consider gold an investment. I consider it an alternative form of savings. If you don't want to invest some of your money,

if you don't want to buy stocks, if you don't want to buy real estate, if you want some dry powder, where do you keep it? Now, most people would keep it in dollars or euros or pounds, depending on where they live. But I think that you're better off keeping it in gold. I think that gold is going to do a much better job of retaining its purchasing power over time than any of those fiat currencies, even if you earn interest on them. I don't think the interest that you earn in the bank will offset the purchasing power that you lose to inflation. So if you have long-term savings, the longer you're saving, the more you're going to lose unless you save in gold. And I also think you could save in silver. Although I actually look at gold now,

given the fact that I think it's so underpriced, that there is an investment element to it. Because I think the market is not accurately pricing gold. I think gold should be much higher in price right now than it is. And so to the extent that we close that gap, that would be an investment type return, much more than you would normally expect to see on an annual basis from gold if it was properly priced. And the reason I think that it's underpriced, and it's been underpriced for a while, is that investors don't really perceive the problem correctly. They don't realize how much inflation there's going to be. They have much too much confidence in central banks,

the Fed in particular, to control inflation. They don't really appreciate the credit, you know, the sovereign credit crisis that's coming and the amount of inflation that is going to be created in order to bail everybody out, whether it's governments or bank depositors or the whole financial system. So I think that if gold were to accurately reflect that reality, the price would be much higher. So in a sense, it know, it is like an investment at this point because you're getting it so cheap. But when I think about an investment related to gold, I generally think about gold mining stocks, which haven't been the greatest investment over the last 10 years or so. But I think that they're going to perform much better

over the next 10 years. I think they're underued uh and they're more of an investment because they're operating businesses they own gold in the ground they extract it they sell it they generate income they pay dividends and i think if i'm right about what's going to happen to gold i think the price of gold is going to rise much faster than the cost of mining it which hasn't been the case for the past decade, which has been a problem. But if we start to see a much bigger rise in gold prices as the world starts to perceive these problems to a greater degree, that's going to be great for these gold companies. And so I think their earnings will go up, their dividends will go up, and that'll drive the share prices much higher. Crypto investors in the United States face some major challenges.

One of them is that there's almost no way to get exposure to the asset class inside of your traditional investment vehicles. The other thing is the taxes. They are absolutely atrocious. What if I told you there was a way to solve both of these problems? Well, there is. And it's with a self-directed IRA from I Trust Capital. Guys, not only can you open a new self-directed IRA from iTrust Capital. Guys, not only can you open a new

self-directed IRA and fund it with the limits each year, but you can actually convert over from your 401k, your Roth IRA, any other IRA that you already have. And you can do that tax-free, just transferring over the balance. And then you can go to cash, buy as much Bitcoin than you want and not pay taxes when you sell it. You absolutely have to try this if you are in the United States. Use the link down below. It's bit.ly slash itrust-scott. That's B-I-T dot L-Y slash I-T-R-U-S-T dash S-C-O-T-T. You have to try this now.

And to my point at the beginning, you sound like a bitcoiner just saying gold instead of bitcoin so i think the only disagreement there is which asset but that could be a speech from michael saylor by replacing the word gold with bitcoin yeah i mean i just want to say you know we we are not so different i want to reiterate that i think yeah this the problem is i can't get my arms around Bitcoin as a legitimate replacement for gold as either a store of value or as a safe haven. So I think that people who are buying it are just taking a big risk. I mean, I think there's more risk in Bitcoin, you know, than your typical tech stock that has no earnings. You're not buying Bitcoin because it has the same properties as gold. It doesn't have anything in common with gold. I mean, gold is a physical commodity. It is a metal, a precious metal.

It's the most useful metal on the periodic table. And the qualities that gold has as a metal don't deteriorate over time. So that if I have an ounce of gold today, that ounce of gold can do the same exact things in 100 years or 1,000 years as it can today. And so it's an ideal store of value because that value doesn't decay. I mean, that's not true with just about every other a commodity, you know, they have a shelf life. You just can't hold it forever, but gold you can.

And the other thing about gold is it can be reused. I mean, no matter how many times you use it you could just melt it back down. I mean, you could get gold out of the computer chips that they can extract it. Doesn't matter. I mean, I've been wearing this gold bracelet that I got from Monet. I mean, if I got tired of wearing it, I can melt it down. Or I can sell it to somebody. My wife was wearing my gold bracelet from when I was 13 in 1989 the other day. Gold has those properties.

Bitcoin doesn't have any of those properties. Bitcoin doesn't have any actual use. There's nothing you can do with your Bitcoin. Just, you know, so there's no value there that you can store because you can't do anything with it today. So you won't be able to do anything with it a hundred years from now.

Yeah, you can sell your Bitcoin to somebody, but that's totally different. Just because somebody is willing to buy Bitcoin doesn't mean that Bitcoin has any underlying value. It just means that somebody wants to buy it. When you own Bitcoin, you're just making a bet that in the future, somebody else is going to want to buy Bitcoin, even though there's nothing that you can do with it. I'm not willing to make that bet with my store of value, my safe haven. I know that there's always going to be a use for gold, no matter what. I mean, it's been used for thousands of years, and they're probably going to come up with more ways to use gold. As we explore and develop new technologies, there may be more applications for gold in the future than there are today.

And so when you own the gold, you own something that people are going to need and they're going to pay for it. Nobody necessarily needs Bitcoin and people may not be willing to pay anything for Bitcoin in the future. So, you know, it's a very different asset. I mean, it even trades. I think it's more negatively correlated with gold. When I look at the markets, Bitcoin and gold are more likely to go in the opposite direction than the same direction. Certainly, you know, from a safe haven, if you look at what happened to Bitcoin last week when Israel attacked Iran, and initially the markets were afraid, oh my God, what does this mean? And the S&P futures went down one, one and a half percent right away.

Bitcoin went down 6%. There's a clear explanation for that. So went down even more. Gold went up one and a half percent. So very different types of assets. And so I just don't look at them as substitutes. I mean, to the extent that you wanted to buy some Bitcoin, you could say, well, I'm going to reduce my, I'll put a little bit less money in technology stocks and put some into

Bitcoin. But I think it's not even really an investment. I think it's more of a gamble. So I think the way you would get into Bitcoin is reduce the money that you were going to bet on sports or go to casinos or buy lottery tickets. Take that money and buy Bitcoin, you know, but don't take your investment money and gamble on Bitcoin. I actually agree with everything that you said about gold. Once again, we stopped necessarily at Bitcoin. If you were describing meme coins, I would certainly agree with you once we sort of get beyond Bitcoin. Well, what's the difference between Bitcoin and another coin? Well, Bitcoin was the, I often say Bitcoin was the first meme coin. And I can tell you that I'm

actually a recovering Bitcoin maximalist myself who used to pray at the altar of Satoshi. And I think I'm much more pragmatic than I once was. And I agree 100% that the bulk of investment, quote unquote, in Bitcoin has been speculation. But I think that that's the natural path of a nascent asset to a store of value. But I agree with you that it should not be money coming out of gold going into Bitcoin. And I can see why that would be triggering the idea. I've long believed that Bitcoin is Bitcoin. It's not a tech stock. It's not gold.

It's its own asset class class for better or for worse. And it trades 24-7, 365. So every time on a Saturday that there's going to be a global conflict or fear in the market and people can't sell the equities that are only on sale 35 hours a week, they're going to go to the most liquid asset that's available to sell. And they are going to sell their Bitcoin. That's factual. Right, but on Thursday night last week, when all the markets were open, they sold Bitcoin

more aggressively than they sold stocks. I mean, you can't make that excuse on Thursday the way people were making it on Saturday. Bitcoin is a risk asset and it's riskier than stocks. It's not a substitute for gold, which you would consider a safe haven type of asset. I actually hate the digital gold comparison. I mean, I think that there are similar properties to a degree, but that also implies

that they would have correlated price action, as you said before, and they don't. And Bitcoin largely is uncorrelated to tech stocks as well over a longer time frame. It just trades on its own because it's a nascent small market that can be easily moved by large players. I don't think anyone can disagree with that. For my observation, though, I do think it is AI stocks moving up or some of the meme stop type names, then Bitcoin tends to go up there. It's more of the

animal spirits, the speculation, a liquidity event. Cheap money is coming in and chasing things. And for now, some of that money has been going into Bitcoin. But the question is, for how much longer is that going to be the case, I've been arguing that I think that the ETFs are going to be a big problem for Bitcoin. You know, it's a situation of be careful what you wish for, because for years and years and years, the speculation of ETFs was driving a lot of Bitcoin demand because people wanted to be in Bitcoin when the ETFs were there. And, you know, we finally got the ETFs and I was actually surprised by the amount of money that came in. I did not expect them to be as well received as they were.

And so that pushed Bitcoin up, you know, even more. It was like just buy the rumor, sell the fact. I mean, there was an initial sell-off after the ETFs were launched. 49 to 40. A bunch of money came in. But again, I think the money that's in these ETFs is not your Bitcoin maxi type guys. I think it's more traditional people, investors who took a shot at Bitcoin. They've never bought Bitcoin before. So clearly, if they were philosophically in line, they would have figured out how to open up a wallet and buy themselves some Bitcoin.

They wouldn't have had to wait all these years to buy it in their Schwab account. But now that they're in and there was a lot of hype, and I think all these big companies, the BlackRock, the Fidelity's were kind of marketing to their client base, hey, we've got these new ETFs. This is great. Money got sucked in. Some of the money came out of gold ETFs. I'm pretty convinced of that. I think some of it came out of gold stocks. And we saw some real weakness in both of those, even as gold prices was rising. And so I think money went in there. But I think if we get a breakdown in Bitcoin from here, you know, we break 60,000,

then maybe we get back below 50,000 and people start to get worried. I mean, you won't be worried. I mean, you don't care. You've seen that movie before. But a lot of these people who are buying for the first time, I think, you know, are gonna sell. They're gonna say, you know what? It's not working out the way I thought.

Let me, you know, cut my loss or I still have a profit, a little profit, let me just take that while I can. It didn't go way up like I thought, now it's going down. I just wanna go to cash, I wanna get out. And what I think the problem is gonna be, if you get a significant percentage of the ETF holders who want out on the same day, that's going to be a big problem for Bitcoin.

I just don't think there's enough real liquidity in the spot market to handle big outflows, especially in one day. Because remember, when people wanted to get out of the grayscale Bitcoin trust before, all that did is push the price of the trust down. That's why it went to a 50% discount, because the Bitcoin were trapped in the trust. They never were sold. But today, if somebody wants to get their money out of Grayscale or any of these, Grayscale has to go into the Bitcoin market and sell the Bitcoin. And it can't work a limit, right? All of a sudden, it's getting redemptions. These are market orders just sell at the market. And if all of a sudden there's all this market orders

just hitting, have to be filled, they can't wait. They have to take whatever the bid is. The bids are gonna collapse. The price is gonna collapse. And remember, Tether doesn't count, right? So in the past, a lot of the big Bitcoin sell-offs, Tether buyers came to the rescue and bought Bitcoin. But when these ETFs are selling, Tether doesn't count. You can't use it. They need to get paid in dollars, not Tether

or any other stable coin. They need actual dollars that they can send to their brokerage account customers. I just don't think, I just think this could be the next collapse if it's driven by the ETFs is going to be one of the biggest Bitcoin crashes we've ever seen, maybe the biggest one. So that is a big risk right now. I mean, if I was going to buy Bitcoin, I would wait for a big collapse because these ETF buyers are going to get out. That's how markets work. You know, even if Bitcoin is going to go up, it's going to shake out these ETF buyers are going to get out. That's how markets work. Even if Bitcoin is going to go up, it's going to shake out these ETF buyers first. So it's got a big drop coming regardless of where it goes. It always does.

I mean, I think it's going to keep going down. But if I wanted to buy it, I'd wait. I mean, it always does. And it survived those multiple 30, 40 percent retracements each bull market. So I can't disagree that we'll see it. But I can, if we're basing on an idea of what could happen in the future, I would actually argue that the bulk of these people who are buying ETFs are probably doing it relatively passively in their IRAs and aren't even focused on the price and don't even know when we have a 10 or 15% correction. I could be wrong, but I think that, listen, I check my stock portfolio once every six months. If it's in my IRA, I don't even notice if a stock moves 15% in either direction. Yeah. I'm in the business. In fact, I'm now not a stockbroker. I was a stockbroker for over 30 years. And a lot of people check their accounts. I mean, most people check their accounts daily, of course, you know, and people do get concerned, you know, especially with something new. You know, people were buying Bitcoin and they're

hearing all this stuff, you know, $100,000, $150,000, $200,000 this year. And people are thinking, oh, I can buy it at 50, 60,000. It's gonna double or triple. All right, let me get some of that. Well, if all of a sudden the money is down 10, 20% and they start to think, you know, this ain't doing what everybody said it was gonna do. You know, maybe I'm just gonna get out.

I don't know. I don't, you know, it doesn't take much. Because the ETFs now, they have something like five or 6% of all the Bitcoin is already in there. But, you know, if they go to sell the, you know, a lot of the volume in Bitcoin is all a bunch of wash sales. It's kind of, you know, people selling to themselves. I mean, there's a lot of phony volume there going on. I just don't see where, where the buying's going to come from. I mean, there's a lot of phony volume there going on. I just don't see where the buying's gonna come from. I mean, I know where the selling came from.

All this money that came into Bitcoin ETFs and bought all those Bitcoin, what you have to ask yourself is who sold them that Bitcoin? Who unloaded their Bitcoin into the ETFs? Because somebody was willing to sell, right? The question is, who was it? Because most of you Bitcoin maxis, oh, I didn't sell any. I mean, all the people I talked to, I hodled forever. So somebody didn't hodl. You're echoing a lot of my own statements

that I make on a daily basis, which is why I'm so suspect of the halving narrative. The Bitcoin halving comes every four years. I think it's a great narrative that drives a potential cycle. But you're talking about $4 or $5 billion a year in dollar terms of reduced supply. And that's not the only seller in the market. People pretend that just because you have this reduction that all of a sudden there's no other sellers. There are huge Bitcoin whales who are always willing to sell into any massive price rise. I tend to agree with you there as well. But Bitcoin always continues to push through that supply eventually. Yeah, and I think it's those whales.

I mean, they scored a big victory with these ETFs because it gave them an opportunity to sell. To unload further. Which is what they need to do. We'll see. But what about the steady demand? They own so much. But I agree with you on the halving.

It's all hyped up. I mean, they keep talking about, oh, the supply is cut in half. No, it's not. All that's cut in half is the increase in the supply. Yeah. Each cycle is statistically less meaningful anyways, because the asset class has grown. Yes, because everybody knows about it. And almost all the Bitcoin have already been mined. So that's the supply. The supply that counts is what's already there. The new supply, the incremental increase is small. What's more important when it comes to Bitcoin is not the supply, it's the demand. You need people to want to buy the supply. And that's the problem. Because I think, if the demand goes down, then the price collapses. I would argue that the benefit to the spot ETFs has actually been the slow unlocks of

RIAs and platforms to allow it, which has allowed that sustained demand. I think there is pent up demand when you don't have Vanguard online yet, probably never. Well, people were buying, you know, they have Bitcoin. There are companies that were allowing people to have Bitcoin in their IRAs. I mean, I've been seeing those ads for years. Self-directed IRAs. Yeah, self-directed IRAs. Yeah. So just like, I mean, we do at Shift Gold, we help people set up IRAs where they can buy physical gold, right? They can have gold bars, gold coins. So people were doing that with Bitcoin. I mean, I know I've talked to people

who have set up those IRAs and bought their Bitcoin. But yeah, I know I've talked to people who have set up IRAs and bought their Bitcoin. But yeah, I agree that if you could just do it at Vanguard, at Schwab, it's much easier. You don't have to do that. And it's cheaper. Those self-directed IRAs sometimes have higher setup fees and annual custodial fees. So I agree. They literally haven't even allowed people to buy these ETFs yet. They haven't even chosen a lot. Most of these platforms, the bulk of them, especially RIAs, are just doing due diligence now for the first time. They haven't even had those calls. We probably only see 20% to 30% of the potential demand even unlocked. I can't speak to what that other 70% will look like. Well, the demand that's there now is sell is individual investors who

are kind of self-directed right largely correct and wall street is okay with that because you're not as likely to be sued so if i'm schwab and one of my customers goes and buys a bitcoin etf in his ira and loses a bunch of money you know it's hard to sue me because you know nobody recommended it nobody advised advised them. They just did it on their own. Right. But I don't think you're ever really going to get RIAs or the big wire house brokerage firms pushing this. They're not going to take that kind of a risk with the Bitcoin ETFs because there is a large potential for loss. And that means a greater chance of a lawsuit or an arbitration.

Yeah, but I mean, people listen, Meta drew down further than Bitcoin this last cycle in the bear market. Nobody's getting sued for indexing Meta. I don't think that's a valid concern. I mean, Facebook is an S&P 500, big stock. I mean, obviously, somebody has to be aggressive to buy Meta. But, you know, if you put Meta, if you put that in someone's stock and portfolio and it goes down, you know, I think that you're less likely to be sued because Bitcoin, you know, it's going to be easier to argue, why did you recommend this? It's just total speculative. You know, it's not a real stock. It doesn't pay a

dividend. It doesn't have earnings. Look, I just think that Wall Street is going to be very sensitive because it's very easy to sue your broker. It's too easy, unfortunately. So it's too easy to sue everyone in the United States. They have to be extra careful. So they may allow people to buy them unsolicited in their own account. But I can't see a Merrill Lynch guy being allowed by Merrill Lynch to get on the phone and convince somebody, recommend that they buy this on a solicited basis. And I don't think fiduciaries are going to buy it for their customers. I just think, again, they have a fiduciary responsibility. And I think if they buy Bitcoin, they could be,

you know, they're taking a risk. And there's no reason because it's not even their money. We've seen some small RIAs already doing it, but it's only been 18, 20, 30 million dollars max. But it has actually happened. I would say that you and I, instead of conjecturing, should just like schedule a conversation every six months and see if it's happened. Yeah. Because I don't know if it will or it won't. I mean, that's probably a good place to buy Bitcoin

is in, you know, if your broker recommends it, you could probably buy it. It has a free put because if it goes up, you get to keep the money. If it goes down, you sue. You file an arbitration and you sue them. Well, let me ask you this question. I don't want to dig so much further into the Bitcoin versus gold debate or the problems with Bitcoin. What I do want to dig into is something you hinted at before, a few things. Miners, you said, are a good buy.

For those who hear trade Bitcoin and trade Bitcoin miners, we know that miners effectively have a high beta to Bitcoin. They underperform to the downside. They tend to overperform to the upside. You're talking about Bitcoin miners. Yes, but is that how you view gold miners as a corollary? They're not the same asset. I'm just saying I'm trying to put it in familiar terms for the people who are listening.

Yeah, well, I mean, Bitcoin miners, I mean, first of all, they're not actually mining anything. They're just, they have computers and they're solving their data centers, complex math problems, their data centers. And I bet a lot of them are about to switch to AI, to be quite honest. But yes, go ahead. But yeah, I mean, look, they have their own dynamic because it's not just the price of Bitcoin, but what, you know, what it costs them to mine it and what profits they make. Yeah, I wanted to ask about gold miners more specifically, though.

I was just trying to put it in terms. I mean, obviously, there's some similarities in that it's the cost of producing a Bitcoin versus what they can sell it for. But I would not want to invest in any of these companies. I think the business models are extremely risky, you know, given what could potentially happen to the price of Bitcoin and the cost of mining. I mean, the price could go down and it can cost more to mine it. I mean, it's just and those stocks I've been watching them. I mean, even when Bitcoin was rallying up to seventy four thousand and making a new high, they trailed the Bitcoin miners were getting killed.

I think a lot of people had bought those miners as proxies for an ETF and they exited miners and bought the ETF. Yeah. And I thought that was going to happen to MicroStrategy and then MicroStrategy hit a new high. I was like, why buy MicroStrategy? I'll tell you why. You need to buy Bitcoin. We know, we've seen it. There were hedge funds that had multi-billion dollar basically carry trades where they were buying Bitcoin and shorting MicroStrategy and they got squeezed. So they had to sell Bitcoin at 74,000, which went down and MicroStrategy went absolutely flying. You could say that that happened. Yeah, well, now MicroStrategy is heading back down again. But personally, I think that's because that trade's over.

They got squeezed and that's it. No, I don't think that trade's over. I think it's still a great trade. I mean, to the extent that because I mean, if you like Bitcoin, you know, you could buy it and then short MicroStrategy as a hedge. Very common trade. Because if Bitcoin goes down, MicroStrategy should go down more. Yeah, I mean, it is a common trade, undeniably. But, you know, gold miners, I mean, I think the gold miners, ironically, have been a victim of inflation. I mean, it's, you know, ironically, have been a victim of inflation. I mean, you wouldn't have expected that, right?

But the reason that they were a victim is inflation over the last 10 years has been much higher than has been reported and perceived. And that inflation has driven the cost of mining up dramatically. And the price of gold has not kept pace. So even though gold is now $2,300 and change, a lot of these mining companies were making more money when it was $500 because of the difference between the cost to mine it and what they sold it for. And so that's one of the reasons these stocks are just so cheap. And also, stocks are a discounting asset.

So when you're looking at a gold mining stock, you're not looking at the price of gold today. You're looking at where do you think the price of gold is going to be in three years, in five years, in 10 years? Because you're trying to make an estimate of the future earnings of that company and then discount it to the present to figure out a price. And most of the analysts on Wall Street expect the gold price to be lower at any given point in the future. And so they bake those lower gold prices into their earnings estimates. And that is reducing what they believe these stocks are worth. But I think eventually the street is going to have to wake up to the reality of inflation and where gold is going to be. And when gold really catches up and moves up much more than the mining costs, and now

the analysts have to take a more positive look at where they think gold prices will be in the future and actually say that gold in the future will be more expensive, the price will be higher than it is now. And now they have to figure out their earnings and then the valuation. I think these stocks are going way up. So I think if you're bullish on gold, then you should buy these miners, as long as you have a higher risk tolerance. Yeah, it's their high beta to the price of gold. Because there's more downside. Yeah, that was the point I was making. But we have this sort of interesting phenomenon

you also touched on earlier, where gold ETFs have seen a sell-off, but gold prices are obviously rising. I wouldn't have necessarily attributed that to the Bitcoin ETFs. You said that that's part of it. No, well, I think what was going on is the buyers, some of the big buyers have been central banks,

foreign central banks. David Steinberg That was my next question. David Steinberg Those central banks aren't buying gold stocks. They weren't buying silver. That's why silver wasn't moving up until all of a sudden it popped, but they were buying physical gold. And I think a lot of the retail sellers who were selling their gold ETFs and selling stocks, some of that money went into Bitcoin ETFs. Some of it maybe went into other types of stocks. Some of it may have just gone into cash.

There were a lot of people, when gold was at 2000, a lot of people were convinced that that was the top. That, well, this is where it stops. This is resistance. So let me sell my gold. Maybe I'll buy it back when it goes to 1800 or 1700. But, you know, gold hadn't really been able to go much above $2,000 for 10 years. And every time it got up around there, it sold off, sold off.

So I think the public sold at that price and whatever they did. But they were wrong because now we got to $2,400 and change. We moved 20% above $2,000. Personally, I don't think we're. We moved 20% above 2,000. Personally, I don't think we're ever going back down to 2,000. I think we've broken out. I think 2,300 is the new 2,000. So, I mean, I think that's where the support is now. I've said when gold breaks 2,000, it's going straight to 3,000.

I've been saying that for a long time. And I really believe it because of what you described. But it's interesting to hear you talk about gold and people selling it at $2,000 because of resistance and then criticize Bitcoin for being largely speculators because the only people who are selling gold at $2,000 because it's resistance are people who are speculating on the price of gold and want to trade it. Yeah, well, look, there's a lot of people who have been in gold for a while. But I agree.

Look, there's short-term traders in gold, too. I mean, there are long-term holders. And the long-term holders tend to be like the shift gold customers, right? The customers who are buying physical gold and silver, where we put it in a box and ship it to them. They weren't calling us up at 2000 to sell us back their gold. But some of our customers were reluctant to buy more up there because they had been disappointed many times in the past, every time it gets up here. So they were hesitant to buy. But I'm sure the people who have self-directed brokerage accounts, who had some money in gold stocks

and some money in ETFs, they're more of a trader mentality. I mean, some of the people that have these discount brokerage accounts, the reason they have them is because they trade a lot and they want the low transaction costs they want to be able to get in and out and so that money you know you know can make an impact in the short run on on prices in the long run it's not as material but for short term yeah you know you can you can push the market around um and and so it went down but i think a lot of those people who sold gold around 2000, they're probably regretting it. They should buy it back at 25. Come on, we know how humans are. Of course they will. That's what humans do. They sell the bottom

and they buy the top. I mean, and then they regret their decision not to. I mean, that's the story of markets, regardless of what the asset is. You also, you know, we were talking about the gold ETFs themselves. It's interesting that we talk about whether RIAs will recommend Bitcoin ETFs. Maybe they will, maybe they won't. You obviously think that they won't. Why do we still only talk about 60, 40 portfolios from registered investment advisors and from professionals? And they're not allocating to gold still after, we'll say, you know, tens of years or hundreds of years in markets, but thousands of years, effectively, you would think, I'm going to say it's because they don't get paid as much to recommend it, but you would think that we would have a 1%, forget even Bitcoin,

we would have already seen 1% or 2% to gold rationally as part of someone's 100% portfolio. Yeah. Once upon a time, that was the case. I mean, if you looked at a portfolio, certainly in the 70s or 80s, there was an allocation to gold, 5%, 10% in portfolios. But with the 90s and the 2000s and how good the markets went and the Fed was able to keep everything going, it seemed like there was no reason for anybody to want to hedge. And they came up with derivatives and strategies that you could use to hedge the downside using options or other kind of products. So they thought, why hedge with gold? We have other ways of hedging a portfolio. And so over time, you know, kind of gold got squeezed

out of the mix. You know, it just was all stocks and bonds. And yeah, you know, if if advisors don't even want to recommend gold, why are they going to recommend Bitcoin if they think it's digital gold? They won't even recommend actual gold to their clients. But I think that is going to change. I think that when gold really starts to move up again, you're going to see more institutional money or advisor money starting to move into the sector. And of course, the problem is it's a very small sector so if you get even a small allocation but from a you know a larger pool of buyers that's enough to drive the price much much higher but the other thing i said about litigation is look if you just do a 60 40 portfolio and you

adjust it you know usually the older the person is it's not 60-40 anymore. You increase the amount of bonds in the portfolio. But if you recommend something that's standard and it doesn't work out, you're still pretty much protected from litigation because you did what everybody else does. You did what is accepted and what is considered prudent. And if it doesn't work out, it's not your fault. But if you go out on a limb with your customers and you do something that's outside the box, something that's not the same as everybody else, and it doesn't work out,

you have a much better chance of losing in arbitration. Because the judge, well, why did you do that? What a sad system. So people are very defensive in the industry. And so they take comfort in doing what the conventional wisdom says is the right thing to do. Like personally, I don't think long term bonds should be in anybody's portfolio. I just think they're going to get wiped out through inflation. I mean, it's either going to be default or inflation. So to me, it's not prudent to hold bonds.

You know, I don't care, you know, but Wall Street, you know, looks at it differently. Where is the gold buying coming from? You talked about central banks. We know China certainly and a number of countries in Asia are buying gold wildly to add to their central bank holdings. We know Chinese people are buying gold en masse right now because the real estate market effectively has crashed and that's where they used to keep their value. We know people in India buy gold and we even know that Costco is selling out of gold. Yeah. I mean, people make a big deal.

They think, oh, this is the top because, you know, look, people are buying gold at Costco. That's the only store they're buying it. It's not like, you know, all the stores, you know, it's just Costco. And I think they max it out to like you know all the stores you know it's just costco and i think they max it out to like three ounces per customer when you go in so uh you know i i think it's this is the beginning of a trend not the end i think that by the time gold does cop top out uh you know there'll be a lot more stores uh that that allow you to sell gold you know i guess if mcdon McDonald's was selling gold, you know, when you checked out, you know, that might be indication of a top. Last I checked, my barber and Uber driver haven't asked me about gold yet.

But, you know, what I would love to see with gold is I'd love to see it remonetized. I think it's going to be remonetized. I think that's why central banks are buying it. They're looking to replace their dollar reserves. But more importantly, I'd like to see the private sector remonetizing gold and using gold as a medium of exchange, as a unit of account, reintroducing it in commerce. And the way to do that is through the internet, through blockchain and through tokenization. And so way to do that is through the internet, through blockchain and through tokenization. And so all the things that you love about Bitcoin can be done much better with gold, cheaper, faster. The only thing is, you got to have a third party custodian to hold your gold to allow you to transact with it the way you can with Bitcoin.

But, you know, there are a lot of custodians that are reputable. You know, we trust third parties, you know, all the time. And if you buy an insurance policy, I'm sure you have insurance, whether it's life insurance, fire insurance, auto insurance.

All that is about trusting a third party. The insurance company has to pay your claim. And so if they don't, you've wasted your money. And so it'd be the same thing with tokenization of gold. You'd have to have companies that you trusted, that are audited, that are maybe insured, that are holding your gold. And once that happens, that gold can circulate on the blockchain instantaneously. And so I could use my gold to buy a cup of coffee. I can't use my Bitcoin to buy a cup of coffee because the transaction costs more than the coffee. And the barista doesn't have time to wait a half an hour, an hour for the Bitcoin to come through.

I mean, you can use layer two solutions, but to the layer one point, isn't that... Everybody talks about lightning. But the apples to apples comparison there is not using tokenized gold to make a payment on the blockchain. It's going in with a block of gold and trying to shave off enough to pay for the cup of coffee. No, why would you do that, though? That's the equivalent of the layer one. No, but you don't have to do that. You don't have to do it with Bitcoin either.

Well, that's what happened with paper money. You know, the first paper money was not issued by the governments in the United States. It was issued by private banks. And it was to make it easier than carrying around your gold. You let the bank hold your gold and they gave you a note, paper notes that, so you can do, we can do the same thing with gold. But no, if I wanted to use metal to buy coffee,

I would pay in copper. You know, I would, or maybe a nickel. I mean, even silver would be too. I give, well, a silver dime. If you have a silver dime, right. If you, if you buy the, you know, the junk silver and you get an old silver dime, you know, you could pay for coffee with some silver dime. So that would work. I agree, but that's not apples to apples. Yeah. I mean, you can use, it's the same argument though, is that you could use a layer two solution that's faster and cheaper on Bitcoin. You're talking about literally using

the exact same network to send an asset so it would take the same amount of time. But you're sending a real asset instead of a fake one. That we can debate. That actually is a store of value. And you can price, like gold is not that volatile. And so if you're a merchant,

you can price your products in gold. But pricing products in Bitcoin is very difficult because you have to change the price frequently because Bitcoin's all over the place. But I mean, listen, gold did make a 20% move, to your point. Yeah, that is rare. Seemingly overnight, it happens. And I think that Bitcoin's volatility will, for better or for worse, with Wall Street involved and more money coming in, that volatility will also decrease. The speculators don't want to hear that.

Well, people have been saying that to me. I remember when Bitcoin went up to $20,000 the first time and people said, oh, this is it. Now the volatility is over. You don't have to worry about these big drops. It's actually a safer investment now because we've gotten all that out of it. And then it collapses to three. And then it goes up to 60. And they say the same thing. Oh, this is safe now. The volatility is gone. Then the next thing you know, it's back below 20,000 again. And so the volatility never goes away. I mean, the crashes haven't stopped. The higher prices hasn't changed that. That's somewhat fair. But why do you think, going back to the last question,

why do you think people are starting to buy gold now again? What problem are they identifying that they think they need that hedge after all of those years? Stocks are effectively at an all-time high, right? I mean, they've retraced a bit. The dollar has been relatively strong. If you believe the Fed's numbers, inflation's coming down. I don't believe the Fed's numbers for the record. Unemployment numbers are good. By any measure that the government will present you, the economy is strong and markets are strong. So why would people be choosing to hedge now? What do they know that the government is not telling us? Well, I mean, first of all, even the numbers the Fed is using show inflation headed back higher.

So now the Fed is kind of ignoring that. But yeah, the numbers grossly understate how bad the inflation problem is. I think that the economy is not nearly as good as the numbers suggest. And the numbers may not even be accurate. They may be revised substantially lower in the future. And so who knows if these numbers even are going to hold up. But I think they're very misleading, especially the jobs numbers, because all the jobs we're creating are part-time jobs, and they're going to people who already have jobs.

And the reason these jobs are being created is because the people who have one job can't afford to pay the rent anymore, or for their food or their insurance, or their electric bill. So people's standard of living is going down, and so they're giving up their free time in the evenings or on the weekends to work second and third jobs. To pay the bill. So this is not a sign of a strong economy. It's a sign of a weak economy. But I don't actually think we're getting a significant increase in retail interest yet in the price of gold. So the price of gold is going up,

but it's not because Americans are buying more gold. I mean, that's not what's happening. And I know that because I'm in the gold business and I see what's happening at my company and what's happening at competitors because we're able to talk to the wholesalers about the volumes. And so what I think is happening is the price is rising because some of the selling dried up because the sellers kind of ran out of gold or whatever they were selling at 2000. But the buying continued and the buying is coming, I think, predominantly from the east, whether it's individuals in India or in China who have always been buying gold and are continuing to buy gold. But you have these central banks that are buying more gold.

And I think they are gonna keep buying. They're not that sensitive to price. I mean, if the price moves up, I mean, they'll buy more. They probably wanna stretch out their buying because they don't wanna spike the price. They don't want their buying to shoot it up. They want to buy as much gold as they can for the money. So they're probably rather slow buyers. They probably do keep some bids in below the market and then buy. And I think they have a lot more gold that they need to buy. And they got plenty

of cash to pay for it. They've got their balance sheet. The question still, I agree with that. The question still, why do they need to buy it and why are they adding so much now? Well, I think the reason the central banks are adding it is because they can read the writing on the wall with respect to the problems for the dollar, because the dollar is their primary reserve asset. But the problem is it's a liability

of the world's biggest debtor nation. And our debt is exploding exponentially. We're almost at a $35 trillion national debt. We're now spending more than a trillion a year just on interest on that debt. And if the Fed leaves interest rates just where they are, not raises them, which is what they should be doing, but they're reluctant to do it. But at some point next year, we'll be spending $2 trillion a year on interest on the debt, more than we spend on Medicare or Social Security. It'll be the number one expense. And military combined. And military combined. And I don't know. I mean, as the debt becomes bigger and bigger, there's a lot of political pressure either to create massive inflation or to default, right? Because I can see a situation

where the US government just decides to default on the debt that's held by foreigners. We already seized the debt held by Russia, right? And so that's part of the reason the political motivation to de-dollarize, even apart from the threat of default or inflation. But as the national debt becomes a bigger and bigger burden on the U.S. economy, what is going to be done? Right. Because we can't pay it. And so we either have to default honestly or we have to inflate if they're going to start cutting spending to act responsibly. I mean, I think politicians are more likely to default on the bonds that the Chinese own than cut Social Security or cut Medicare because the Chinese can't vote in our elections, right? So who cares if we screw them? So the Chinese have to realize that it's a risk holding

all these treasuries. So they might as well get out. And I think they also recognize that the yield they're getting on these treasuries is not nearly enough to offset the risk of holding them, either the risk of inflation or the risk of default. And so they're selling. We're doing nothing about our looming debt crisis. We just approved in Congress another $95 billion of foreign aid. Where's the money coming from the pay for that? Nobody questioned how we're going to pay for this. Oh, let's just borrow it. So let's just take our debt problem and make it even bigger. There's nobody in Washington that has any kind of fiscal discipline. Nobody said,

OK, yes, we really need to give more money to the Ukraine. We need to give some money to Israel. So how are we going to pay for it? Right? What, what other programs are we going to cut so that we have this money or whose taxes are we going to raise so that we can cover the cost? No, nobody has to pay for it. We just print the money. We'll borrow the money and print. And that's, and so this, our creditors look at that and say, I'm out of these dollars. I mean, I'm not gonna stick around for this. And so when you sell your dollars, you have to buy something, right?

You gotta get your, what are you gonna do? Well, are you gonna buy euros? I mean, what's so great about Eurozone? Do you wanna load up on Japanese yen? So what are you gonna buy, right? Gold is basically the only viable alternative that they have, especially too if they don't want to be beholden to the issuer, because when you own dollars,

you're kind of beholden to the United States. We call the shots when you own our currency. We already showed that. We can take it away whenever we want. But if it's gold and you have it in your own country in a vault, nobody can sanction that away from you. Right. You own that. And so, you know, people people want that safety. So that's what's going on. And I think the price of gold is going a lot higher because a lot of these central banks that are buying the gold, they hardly have any gold right now relative to their total reserves.

So they have a lot of gold they need to buy if they want to catch up to the West. I mean, look at how much gold Germany has, U.S. has, France. Those countries have a lot of gold relative to their reserves. But these other countries that have much bigger reserves than like France and Germany, I mean, larger foreign currency reserves, they have a tiny percentage allocated to gold. So they got a long way to go. Who's selling it to them as we finish here? Yeah, well, again, they're getting it from retail. I mean, there was a lot of outflows from the ETFs this year. So they obviously were able to buy that up. They do buy up some of the production,

right? There are mines that are producing gold. So there's supply that's coming into the market that they're able to buy. But I think they're going to run out of that. That's going to be the problem. I mean, the people who were willing to sell their gold, now there's not as many now that we've cleared 2,000. We've taken out some resistance. I think we're exhausting ourselves with selling. And I think the price is going to move up to a much higher level before we draw in some new sellers to enable the central banks to continue buying, which is something that they need to do. So the question is, at what price will more gold supply come on the market? Obviously, if the price goes to 5,000,

the mines can produce a lot more yeah you know there are these big gold companies that have gold underground that cost you know 2 2500 an ounce 3 000 an ounce to get it out of the ground so they're not going to do it but if the price goes high enough yeah they'll produce the gold uh to meet that demand so that can happen and you know you get some point you know the long long term investors will start selling their gold. Some people will start turning in their jewelry. You know, a lot of companies that buy gold and recycle it. Right. They buy scrap. And so people can say, you know what?

I don't really wear this bracelet. I don't wear this ring anymore. I'll just sell it. Companies buy that up. And now that adds to the supply for investors. So, you know, more higher prices will do that. But the prices right now are not high enough to create that additional supply. So Peter, you're saying there's more supply underground and the supply could go up without us knowing exactly how much just because there's more incentive to mine it? Isn't that-

Yeah, but there's still a limit. I mean, it's very, even if we have the gold in the ground, it takes a lot of investment. It doesn't come on stream immediately. I mean, it could take years for that extra supply to hit the market. And it's going to come out at a more of a predictable rate. I mean, you just can may wave a magic wand and all that gold just jumps out of the ground. So it's, you know, I mean, the gold supply historically, it grows very slowly. You know, you can't really get that much additional supply. You can get some addition, but it's not like all of a sudden you could just double the amount of gold out there. It's not even close. I mean, the supply is generally maybe 1% to 2% a year is about what you can get. I guess we'll have to wait for that asteroid. The last 10... I'm just joking. Yeah, that's Bitcoin propaganda. Yeah, I don't believe in that at all. Giant gold asteroid out there. That was a sarcastic quip for anyone watching. I don't

think we're getting asteroid gold anytime that's going to matter. We have much bigger problems that are going to hit before that. I just want you to know the last like 12 minutes there was exactly what I was hoping for, that we wouldn't argue about Bitcoin because those are all the things I think that we absolutely wholeheartedly agree on. And I think, Peter, man, I think you got one toe in. I think you could become one of us, you know, with enough time. I mean, philosophically, we're aligned. It's just that I really think you guys are missing the point. You shouldn't be advocating for sound money, for return to gold, because that is the solution that we need.

That's the monetary solution to rein in excess government spending. And to have the politicians honest is to return to honest money, a gold standard. And to the extent that the Bitcoin community is detracting from that is causing people to move into Bitcoin or other crypto at tokens instead of gold. And in fact, a lot of the people who promote Bitcoin trash gold, you know, gold's no good gold doesn't work gold is flawed gold's a worthless rock they don't even know that it's a metal they all think gold is a rock and that it has no use case and that it's it doesn't really have any value and so i think

they're doing a disservice uh to the message that they really want to sound and send and i think the government loves it when people promote bitcoin instead of gold because i think that if the gold price really was starting to go up that would worry the politicians that would be a threat to the dollar but bitcoin going up is only a threat to the people who are foolish enough to buy it you know so the government doesn't care you know what happens with the price of bitcoin but they would really care about a big move up in the price of gold because that is a big warning that there's a major problem. But, you know, so I really I'm welcoming the day when you guys, you know, finally. I love gold. So I'm both, you know, come back home to real gold. You know, I don't know what it's going to take to get you off the Bitcoin train.

Not happening. How low does the price have to go? I don't mean necessarily, I'm saying that I think that there's a deep philosophical, religious, whatever it is, as we've described belief in both assets. So there's always going to be a floor. And I don't think that those people get shaken out. Well, we'll see. I mean, the Bitcoin religion hasn't been around very long. So people can convert. People may decide that, you know, it's a false god. They're not- If they got to go somewhere, I'd rather them go to gold than to anywhere else. So I think we can agree on that.

Hopefully, Bitcoin eventually gets people to gold. You know, the problem is they won't have much money left to buy it. But, you know- I think they're going to be just fine. But we're going to schedule another one down the road and see. Peter, thank you so much for taking the time. I know that's not necessarily your favorite topic, but once again, I'm glad we agree on the bulk of it. Well, I find myself talking a lot about it these days.

That wasn't my intention, but here we are. You tweet about it a lot, too. Yeah, you know, I do. I do, and I get a lot of engagement on those tweets. I know a lot of people. You're the best troll in the game. I know you're doing it on purpose. They're trolling me.

And they fall for it every time. And it's pretty brilliant. It's pretty brilliant. Well, we were on Twitter Spaces and we tried to help push you over a million one day there. And I think you got there. Oh, yeah. Well, that's right. I am over.

I'm now more than 10,000 over a million. So at least I've got it. There you go. You're safe from the bot cleansing then, you know? If they cleanse 9,000 bots, you're good. Yeah, it's hard though to get to, you know, just to get to a million one. It takes a long time.

You know, there are people that have millions of followers. I don't know how they get them, but you know, I don't advertise. I've never advertised for once. Me either. They're all organic. I'm at 955-ish and feel like i've been here for three years can't get can't get the million myself but maybe uh well yeah it looks like well you'll get there but yeah it's it's slow it's slow going once you get close it is peter thank you so much for your

time i really really do appreciate it i hope we can catch up in the future sure thing anytime time. Thanks. Bye-bye.