The Wolf Of All Streets - Altcoin Season: Ethereum Approaches $4K, Tron & BNB Skyrocket | Bitcoin's Next Inning

Episode Date: December 4, 2024

I am joined by David Duong, the Head of Institutional Research at Coinbase, to discuss the latest in crypto amid a massive altcoin bull run! David Duong: https://x.com/Dav1dDuong Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►►FOLLOW ME ON ROUNDTABLE FOR EXTRA CONTENT (EARN REWARDS TOO) 👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/Z8XUFuL ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://archpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Altcoins The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin is consolidating, but altcoins are seemingly exploding across the board. TRX making highs, BNB making new highs. We all know what happened with HBAR and ALGO and XRP and Bitcoin dominance right on schedule for the four-year cycle seemingly falling off a cliff. Is this finally it? Is it finally alt season? And what inning are we in, according to Michael Saylor, for Bitcoin? When I want to talk about topics like this, I go to David Young, the head of institutional research at Coinbase to discuss, of course, Texas West Capital with the charts on the back end. Let's go. All of you are having a wonderful Wednesday watching this hot market continue. I know you all love it. You stuck out through the bear market and maybe just maybe we're starting to get paid back here.

I think so. But David, you know, you've come on every couple months. You've been right about effectively everything. Even when we doubted there at the end of Q3, what Q4 would actually look like going into the election. It's exactly what you said, that we would have a slow summer and then a very constructive Q4, I believe was the terminology. I would say that going to $99,600 on Bitcoin and then having dinosaur coins like Algo, HBAR and XRP pop off for four or five X gains in a matter of weeks is pretty constructive. Yeah, better be lucky than smart uh i say but uh yeah you know i think continue this is probably take us into q1

you know and i think that we could have a pretty positive uh development happening there particularly since i think as you said you know there's a lot of altcoins here that are just starting to kind of wake up here i mean we got there's a few of them here. Let me share the screen, which obviously I forgot to do before the show. We have TRX right here, rockets to record highs above 0.4. So as much as people hate on Tron, this makes perfect sense because the bulk of USDT and the bulk of USDT transactions happen on Tron. So this one to me makes total sense. BNB, I think, of course, with more clarity for Binance since CZ is out of jail and that resolved itself over time.

I think that makes sense that BNB now on all-time highs with PancakeSwap unveiling a launch platform for BNB meme coins. Of course, it's because of meme coins. But we're seeing this across the board and it's kind of the old stuff, right? And cyclically, that makes sense to me, even though Ethereum hasn't done it, which is what it should have done. Like if you go back and fall on your head and say, what will happen in a four-year cycle if it repeats? Bitcoin will go up, it'll consolidate, a bunch of old coins will move that are bigger, that'll trickle down to smaller coins and

yeah, we're off. Yeah, we're trying to construct a market thesis behind what's happening here. And I think the obvious one, and I'm not the only one who said this, the speculation is that a lot of this is probably retail money coming back in. And maybe they're tracking some of the old names that they were familiar with before they kind of dropped off the map back in 2021, for example. Now, is that true? I mean, it seems very seductive as an idea and I'm not trying to dispute it in any way, but it does seem kind of funny to me that they're kind of going back to the old names rather than trying to pick out some of the newer themes that have been prevalent in this cycle. But it makes a lot of sense because if that's what they were holding

and they open their Coinbase account and they see those top coins, they remember them. I have friends who still were a part of the last cycle superficially. College friends were 48 years old and they go, hey, should I be buying Matic? It's like they remember that pumping like crazy from last cycle or Cardano. I've gotten 10 questions about. Nothing's really fundamentally changed that much. I mean, they're obviously going to be working with Bitcoin OS to be a layer two or something, but they just know the names that they know from last cycle and they don't know there's even new things. That's amazing to me. Like I thought that at this point, given that the retail community, I've always kind of taken it as people who are pretty much on the frontier of what's disruptive

for this technology. I would have expected are maybe they're looking to like AI agents or meme coins or this or that. But yeah, you're right. It seems that they keep picking out a lot of the old stuff that, you know, Cardano or XRP, that kind of stuff. Yeah, I think it's crazy. So listen, now we're here in December. So how are you framing it? You said, obviously, expect this to continue. My expectation, if we stay on cycle, is two more quarters of exceptional gains and then maybe a terrible summer again. Well, we were terrible, consolidating and boring, I should say. That's terrible for crypto, you know.

Yeah, I hear you. And, you know, there's something about whether we actually run on these kind of like tracks or these cycles kind of fixed in terms of what we actually see. And, of course, we can kind of point to a lot of idiosyncratic things that have driven this or just the broader macro environment has also been pretty helpful. I mean, very, very short term, I would say the question is, are we going to get the Santa Claus rally that people are expecting? And it could happen for equities. The caveat to that is that there's already been a lot of money deployed in this, not just in our space, but into risk in general. And that's been, of course, following on from the US elections, for example, and people kind of starting to put more capital work because

the uncertainty has passed. I do think that what we're not looking at, though, is what's happening abroad. And I think the situation in Korea was pretty indicative of this yesterday, for example, because, of course, we know what happened with the president declaring martial law and then subsequently kind of retracting on that. But it kind of shows you that a lot of money was actually kind of put into crypto in part because they were kind of responding to what was happening in the US elections. And given what was going on in Asia more broadly in terms of China's kind of developments with trying to stimulate their economy and struggling with that,

I think that we saw more money into crypto. So that kind of gave up a lot when that news broke. So I do think that we are discounting a lot of developments like that happening abroad that are also kind of pushing our asset class in a way that maybe we're more focused, or at least for me anyway, I'm more kind of US-centrically focused. So that's not always the dominant factor in terms of performance. South Korea, though, should always be watched because of the insane volumes outside even of this. I noticed, I think it was yesterday or two days ago, I saw a story in passing that XRP trading volume in South Korea, we know it had long

surpassed Bitcoin and Ethereum over the past week, but surpassed the entire Korean equities market writ large. The entire stock market in Korea had less volume in XRP trading on crypto exchanges in South Korea. But these guys trade in size and frequently and in heavy volume. No, that's exactly right. And in part, the reasons for that are in response to kind of what I was suggesting, that they haven't been finding it as convenient or as lucrative to actually invest in their equity markets. And instead, a lot of that capital has flowed into crypto instead. So that, I mean, when we talk about crypto as an alternative asset class, like that's kind of what we mean.

Like it is like really alternative asset class in some places of the world. It might not be the case in the U.S. where we're stuck into more conservative kind of trades. But abroad, I would say like a lot of people are kind of treating crypto as where the place would need to be. I mean, does that mean that South Koreans, considering those massive volumes on that news event, are actually viewing this as a flight to safety? Which we've seen, like when Silicon Valley Bank went down in the United States, obviously, there was huge volume and Bitcoin picked up massively. Or is that just kind of, you know, coincidental? I guess, are they just trading it because they're trading it and volumes are up? Or was yesterday actually a sign that people are adopting this stuff because they'd rather have their money there than somewhere that the Korean government can

effectively touch it? I think we won't be able to really tell that until, you know, we get a little bit more distance away from this event. Certainly, I think now that things kind of like have this potential for like a flare up and then a kind of tone down, people are going to start reassessing, at least in Korea, like what they need to do and whether, as you say, like crypto or Bitcoin is going to be the safe haven asset for them. But I think that it probably could, given the fact that, you know, unlike things like gold or things that are harder to like buy and store, you know, it's easier for them to kind of get in and out of the crypto markets. And so I think already we've seen situations like this kind of occur in the U.S., like with the like the banking crisis last year, for example, where we saw a lot of people adopt Bitcoin as a alternative to the traditional financial system. This is definitely the case in other parts of the

world. We all obviously have one of the major catalysts being politics in the United States. And it seems like every single pick is more crypto friendly than the last. And it's almost in every single cabinet position, those people have at least spoken in some way pro-crypto, even when you go to like health and human services with Robert F. Kennedy, non-financial market. But now the financial markets seem to be lining up with the picks.

I mean, listen, Coinbase has experienced the wrath of Gary Gensler and regulatory enforcement actions. Well, now we're looking at potentially Paul Atkins here as the SEC chair. People have floated Brian Brooks and others. I mean, this guy runs a business consulting crypto companies, right? Was an SEC commissioner and is wildly pro-crypto if you look at anything that he said. And then I saw today, which just just amazing to me. I've known Perri-Ann forever. I had no idea that she would be on the radar for something like this.

She's being floated as the head of the CFTC. And the other Carolyn fan who's already at the CFTC is super pro-crypto. I mean, this is like every possible dream we had. Perri-Ann would be amazing. I just had no idea. She's been on the shows all this time that she was at that level here. I mean, this is ridiculous. And it's got to be amazing for Coinbase. I mean, I know you can't speak to what's happening there, but I've got to imagine if these kind of people come in, a lot of the lawsuits we've seen Coinbase, Binance crack in and start to

either disappear or resolve quickly. And we start to get much more clarity. Yeah. I haven't seen a situation where every pick, every nomination that we get for a new administration is scrutinized this heavily. But I mean, of course, it really matters. And yeah, I think Paul Atkins, for example, would be a great pick, although indications suggest that he might not be willing to take the job. He doesn't really want it. But yeah, you know, he was a former SEC commissioner under Bush. He's definitely pro crypto. a positive initial indication that whoever gets selected for these positions is going to be in a much more favorable kind of place for crypto than where we were previously. So I think that's kind of what we have, which is what we were expecting. Right. But like I think now it's it's starting to

kind of come to fruition. Yeah, it seemed like a pipe dream. And every day it just seems to get better and better and better. It's almost scary. And the market's tracking it, which is also, whether it's the four-year cycle or the news, it's just really encouraging to see. Makes me wonder if maybe those downturns next summer that I would expect or the cyclicality will start to diminish, or at least some of the volatility will be squashed in context of that because the things, the kind of FUD and the negative news that you get, those things should disappear and should not be catalysts for that kind of downside. Well, there's going to be two things. I mean, when we speak about volatility in particular, we also have to kind of keep in mind that as the regulatory situation starts to cool down,

I mean, the possibility of coming up with more, I mean, we've already started to see it, right? We have new products on the market, new strategies do i mean like things are gonna like not get crazy per se but like there's gonna be so much more so many more things to do that it's gonna be a very very interesting time for markets i mean like with bitcoin options for example on on the etfs now all of a sudden we have a new product group that are, is driving liquidity in the spot market because a lot of those market makers are responding to those like, you know, like long call options that people are putting on the other side. And that kind of affects us. So I think there's going to be things like that, that are going to potentially like, you know,

maybe increase volatility at times. Of course, it depends on how that position works because the ball smile kind of works in a very different way inside the option space. But I think that that's what I'm looking forward to, that it's going to be a much hotter market because we're going to have a lot more things to do. Yeah, I tend to agree. So with that said, I think we're going to have some

more narratives that will probably bubble during this next cycle, whatever that looks like. Obviously, I think we're going to get more of these, right? We're going to get more ETFs, I think. A salon ETF, an XRP ETF, these are being filed pretty much across the board, right? So I think that we will have more institutional adoption adoption on that side you mentioned a few things before meme coins ai agents i i'm i literally am so old that all of a sudden people are talking about ai agents and crypto and i have no idea what they're talking about but apparently it's a huge narrative i know what ai agents are obviously but are these the kind of things that we're going to see like 50 coins that are superficially attached to ai agent narrative all go up for a month and

then it rotates into memes and it rotates into something else. I mean, are you looking for some of these cyclical narratives to really start to show their face in the next couple of months? I mean, the toughest thing in our space is probably finding that combination of the perfect theme and the perfect team to lead that theme, you know, like, and making sure that it's not just someone who's out for a cash grab and coming in and you're like, you look into it and you're like, oh, well, they weren't as impressive as I thought, but you really wanted to find that person who could lead, oh, like who's leading the Bitcoin L2 space, who's leading the, like the AI agent space.

Listen, I think it's going to happen that there's going to be a plethora of projects that could arise to try to take advantage of each of these narratives as they kind of pop up. But I also do think that as we progress further into this cycle, what we're seeing a lot more, and evidence of this was kind of came from the fee switch on DeFi that a lot of people are looking ahead to on like projects that we've familiar with like

things like that is that people care about fundamentals and you know it's probably a reflection of the maturation in our asset class that people now care about well well how much revenues are these guys bringing in and how much uh could be represented in terms of token ownership if I buy this token. So I think things like that are going to develop further. But of course, the narratives are going to be there and they're going to be there in the background. But I think we're going to see a shift as this cycle kind of goes along. It's really interesting to me to look at the coin market cap top right now because it's sort of reasserted itself as previous cycle top 10s and 20s. I mean, XRP obviously moving into third.

But I mean, outside of Solana being here, maybe Doge after. But like if you went back four years to this part of the cycle, I mean, TRX, you're talking about 2016, 17 narrative coins that are still holding these top spots. You have a couple of new layer ones and memes up here, but even getting down Stellar still being at 16 and Hedera at 17, Bitcoin Cash is still 18, Litecoin still top 20. Does it surprise you that the dinosaurs have kind of moved so much or hung on to their sort of grasp for now? I think they'll get replaced in the coming six months. I think we'll start to see those go down and liquidity come into new things as new entrants start to understand it. But it's

pretty interesting to see how much money has still gone into these kind of older coins and narratives, which we talked about. I mean, it's getting tougher and tougher out there to figure out who are going to be the ultimate winners when it comes to this stuff. I mean, I don't come on the show to plug things very often, but definitely, for example, like Coinbase, we launched the Coinbase 50 index and part of the rationale for that was because, listen, outside of Bitcoin, which still holds like around a 50% slot, it's lower than the Bitcoin dominance of the crypto market cap, but we cap everything at 50% weight. Outside of Bitcoin and maybe even Solana,

where else do we invest in this space? So we tried to construct a diversified index, very similar to what we see with the S&P 500 or Nasdaq, things like that. I guess Nasdaq is very tech-focused. But things that give us exposure to a wide spectrum of sectors in the crypto space so that if you're not up to trying to investigate every project that's out there and try to figure out who's going to who's going to win this, then you can just buy the index. So I think that things like that hopefully will become a lot more ubiquitous. I think that's the future of ETFs as well, right? Just like index ETFs and

funds. And that's the way that most people are going to, you guys are obviously always ahead of the curve, but I think that's how most people will invest in crypto once they learn that there's more than Bitcoin. That's right. And I'm not going to dispute whether we're going to see like Solana ETF or an XRP ETF. I mean, maybe, I just don't know what the demand is going to dispute whether we're going to see a like Solana ETF or an extra P ETF. I mean, maybe I just don't know what the demand is going to be for the single name ETFs once we kind of progress away from the bitcoins and ETHs of the world, which, of course, like in terms of dominance have been up there in terms of their market cap. But I think it's for the non-crypto natives in the world, and there are more of them than there are of us. They're going to just want something easy. And if they want to invest in

crypto, they're going to want something that's a basket rather than just a single name because they don't have the bandwidth to kind of figure this stuff out. So what do you think will be some of the more exciting narratives? Is gaming coming back? Will we ever see the metaverse again? Where do you think that we're going to start to see interest? And obviously we have, you know, DeSci and all these new things that I don't really understand quite yet, but there's a lot of new ones bubbling, certainly AI. Yeah, I think gaming could be an interesting one. I mean, the approach to gaming has shifted, right? It used to be that play to earn model, which obviously, you know, was the the entrant, but didn't really work out for us. But things like off the grid, for example, I think were a very good example of, hey, we don't need to tell anyone that is crypto, people figured it out, of course, but they don't, they probably don't know it's like a subnet on avalanche or whatever like all that stuff is still abstracted away for the most part i think that what people care about is there are crypto elements to it you can have it if you want to but it's not the same kind of like web-based gaming

that you had to connect a wallet to like you had to in the past i think now it's crypto integrated without necessarily being like crypto a marketplace that you're required to kind of buy into in order to kind of play the games. Now it's just like, go ahead, play for fun. But if you want to, there are these crypto elements involved in it. I think we're still working with that model. I think that it could pick up. Now, obviously, Off The Grid did very well in terms of hitting the top three most played games or most watched games. Token hasn't launched, so we'll see.

Right. And of course, some of that was bought and paid for. I'm not going to deny that. I think they'll openly admit that. Right. But the fact that it was there at all and people were paying attention to it, I mean, it's a very big deal. And it's a very slick AAA game. Yeah, it is.

I think gaming will all be driven by how well that token does this cycle. I think it's become so big and so talked about that if that token does exceptionally well, we'll start to see a real gaming narrative bubble. So I have a couple quotes here from Saylor. We were talking about what inning is Bitcoin in? Where are we in the cycle? Let's see what he had to say about this. And if we agree. The third inning when we cross $100,000. That's the third. Right now we're still early. Third inning when we cross $100,000. Right now we're still early. He goes on to talk a bit about Bitcoin volatility.

Remain volatile because it's a 24-7, 365 global asset. You can panic sell it on Saturday night. You can enthusiastically buy it on Sunday morning. That's a feature. That's not a bug. You've lived through some of the swings, but do you think we won't see the downturns like we've seen in the past just because of the changes? I think it's going to surge through the roof and then it's going to it's going to surge to 180 and crash to 140 and people will be freaking out about it again. I mean, do your views sort of align with this third inning? I think we could be a little ahead of the third inning. I don't know, but I'll take it. If we're just talking about the cycle, do you think that volatility will dampen more than he's describing as institutions come in? Or do you still think we'll see the wild swings? I think that there's a chance for

volatility to start kind of moderating here. And we've seen it right over the course of Bitcoin's life. We've made like lower highs, you know, over time. So I would expect that to continue. I don't know if it's going to go to like the same levels we've seen in other asset classes. But I mean, already in the last two, three years, it has hit those marks, like the VIX volatility index on the S&P 500, for example, it measures S&P 500 options. You know, like typically it gets to like around 20, but it's creeped up to like 30, 40 at times over the last few years. I mean, Bitcoin has been like right there.

So, you know, like he talks about like, oh, like volatility can kind of match it. We've been there. We've seen it happen. Like it's, it's not like an impossibility. It's just like how sustainable is that? How, how does that continue? And again, I think that that has a lot to do with all the other instruments that are coming in because, you know, for example, I think there will be a shift in terms of, are we going to be trading more like perps, for example, or are we going to switch more to like options? Options have started really creeping higher in terms of the open interest that have been there, for example. I think it could be both. I think that we'll see that market really give us

new choices in terms of how we run our strategies. So kind of a big question as we come to the end, now that we have all of these tailwinds and we kind of have seen the cycle start to play out, what are your conversations with institutions? What are you telling them in your research at this point? What are the kind of big questions that they're asking? I guess, what are still the sort of unknowns in their mind and concerns when we, at least in our echo chamber, clearly think like we've kind of made it and we've gotten the stamp of approval and it's all systems go? I think that they're still trying to figure out, number one, where should they be focusing their attention on? Because there are a lot of institutions who are still kind of indexed to what's happening in tokenization and stable coins and payments,

things like that. And those are very, very important themes. I mean, I think you've said it yourself, like stable coins are like the killer app for crypto and like they have absolute product market fit. So I do think that there are your institutions who are looking at the headlines of like, oh, Stripe bought Bridge. Like, oh, that seems pretty amazing. That's, you know, PayPal's trying to launch this or a bunch of consortium of exchanges are trying to launch their own stable coin network. You know, like, so I think that those kinds of headlines

really do occupy my chair. But there are certainly a lot of the ones who pay attention to their peers. I'm talking about like pension funds, endowments, that kind of thing, who I think still, as much as we want them to be the large participants in the space, like they see the headlines kind of coming up of like think still, as much as we want them to be the large participants in the space, like they see the headlines kind of coming up of like, oh, Michigan's doing it.

Wisconsin's doing it. That's amazing. Like Florida wants to get in this game. Like like what do we you know, like what do we need to do if we're going to compete? So I think that that's kind of like where a lot of the mind share is right now among these institutions and institutions, such a broad term. So we're talking about hedge funds, family offices are talking about like, you know, like real money shops. I I'm kind of talking about like really the real money guys from the pension fund endowment side of things. I think that for them to kind of get involved right now, they're really looking at everyone like they're, they're, they're, they're peers in this group because that's, you know, unofficially

how they kind of benchmark themselves. And that for me is kind of a huge shot in the arm because like that they are absolutely paying attention to what those other pension funds are doing and the ones I've just named. And they're kind of saying like, this is a place where we need to be and we need to onboard now because let me tell you, if you want to start trading this stuff, it's not going to be like flipping a switch and you're going to be able to do it the next day. It's like, you know, months of prep work in order to be ready for it. Well, I think we're definitely back to that point where if they don't have a crypto plan or at least can't answer some questions, they're in big trouble. So it's on everybody's radar, I would imagine. So you've probably got a lot more phone calls and people to talk to these days. It's gotten a lot busier,

for sure. That's why they say you need to build during the bear market, because it's just pure FOMO and customer service in the bull market. Well, David, thank you for everything that you do, man. I love having you here always. You got any conferences coming up? I don't know, I can see you in person anywhere. I don't have much planned. I would love to just kind of start relaxing now, but I will have a little bit of travel left before year end. Yeah, I think a lot of people I was unexpectedly are in Abu Dhabi this weekend. And I was originally going to go for the Formula One race and the Bitcoin conferences after, but apparently

it's finance week and everybody on the planet is there. But my daughter has a play, so I can't go. I choose not to go. Excuse me. That's all. It's my choice. All right, man. Thank you, David. Guys, you can follow him obviously on X right down below. We'll see you very soon, Dave. Thanks. Thanks, Scott. Have a good one. All right, guys. In the context of all of this, I saw people up here. It's so funny. I just love you guys in the chat who are saying that I'm scared to talk about Scott. Why won't Scott mention Cardano? He's scared. He's scared. I think I talked about Cardano becoming like a Bitcoin layer two on this very show, but also Cardano, Cardano, Cardano,

ADA, Cardano, Charles Hoskinson, Cardano, Cardano. See, I did my whole year's quota right there for you guys, just in case you didn't think that I talked about them enough. But I do have a pretty huge, massive announcement, something I've been working on for a very long time before we bring Chris on. You guys may have noticed that when I was in Singapore, I shot all this incredible content at Token 2049. We had, you know, Jeremy Allaire and Scaramucci and all these guys sit down. Mo Shake from Aptos. Well, Aptos, as you know, sponsored all that content in Singapore. It was kind of a test. They were

super happy with it. They've been sponsoring the podcast. Well, now they've come on as like a very, very long-term sponsor for us. You know, that I don't take sponsors lightly. Been looking for one sort of huge anchor sponsor and here you go. So Aptos is going to be with us for a very long time. I'm going to be telling you obviously about all the breaking news they have. They're just absolutely incredible moving at the speed of light, working with institutions. And frankly, Mo is just one of my favorite people on the planet. And I love talking to the dude. So you're going to see a hell of a lot of them here. They're amazing. So obviously, go check out Aptos. This isn't about the token or the price. This is about legitimate adoption of crypto and of our space and of the technology. And I really, really, really deeply believe that they're going to be one of the winners and one of the leaders moving forward, especially with their roots in Libra at Facebook, which we know got

killed by Operation Chokepoint 2.0 as of this last week, that news came out. But really, really, really excited to have them on board and to tell you about everything that they're going to be doing. And now, without further ado, we have the one also in a hat. Three guys in hats today. Christopher Higgs. I don't know that I've had Tillman and Andrew in hats at the same time for sure, but I don't know if we've had running guests all in hats and me in hats in a day. You're muted.

So, I mean, I'll mute you. You're muted. So I'm going to unmute you. You're muted. I can't unmute you. You got to do it. Still muted. Chris is muted. Can't unmute your guest. Here we go.

Now can you hear me? See, I couldn't even unmute you. You stayed that way. I'll hear you now. You're good. Okay, you can hear me now. All right. It looked great though. I was going to sign it for everybody.

Hey, that would have been great. You could have made it say whatever you wanted to say. I can't, I don't know. Yeah. Yeah. They, you know, they wear those hats on usually on Wednesdays with their beards and Bitcoin shows. So I've gotten in the habit of started to join in with them. So you got to, so Gregory Russell says a hat trick, three hats. That's clever. Okay. Let's talk about, let's talk about what's actually happening in the market now though. Right. I mean, I brought this up before we got coin market cap, Bitcoin right around 96,000. Awesome. Right. I think, I think like if you fell asleep and had the, like, what do I want the four-year cycle dream to look like?

We're sitting right there in December, right? I mean, yeah, Bitcoin consolidating under 100,000, dinosaur alts popping off left and right. Take a look at the Bitcoin dominance chart, December 16, December 20. Here we are, December 2024, and dominance just already dropped from 62 to 55%. I mean, this is exactly what we want to see, right? Yeah, yeah. I mean, you know, there's nothing really going on here that we don't normally kind of look for. And, you know, I know people tend to get very emotional when they're in the markets, whether it's because things are moving too fast or things aren't moving at all. It seems like they just can't be happy, right?

But, you know, that's why I tend to focus more on the price levels rather than timing, because timing will kill you. Timing, you'll sit there, you go, okay, yeah, it's probably going to be this, you know, this month and this time to do it. And then it doesn't happen. And then you start getting really emotional and trying to figure out, oh, God, did I get this wrong? Where should I be?

You know, if you just look at price levels and you go with that and just let it do its thing, life becomes a hell of a lot easier. So, you know, right now with where we're at, this is great. You know, we got to pull back into this triangle area here. That's usually what we'll get. The triangles will hold the support because you're just getting sideways price action there. Um, we do have three waves down into this swing low here could be printing a triangle here. It could be like an a a b a c a d and e here and then going up um you know we're just looking for a breakout above this swing high this is the coinbase chart bitcoin usd uh that's 98,999 so if we can break out above that that

locks that in as three waves is corrective so we should be heading out and so based on the height here we got a pattern target of around 106,162 and a half um but that's just this local you know the local kind of move here we've got a secondary target uh if it continues through that up here at around 110 160 and you just see you know it's kind of crazy saying 110 or 100,000 because for so long we were talking about 60,000 and 50,000 and 70,000. And everybody thought that was it. And that was a cycle top and, you know, bing, bang, boom, here we are. Right. Um, but you know, again, I think, you know, I was watching the show here before you brought me in and I agree with you, man. I, you know, the cycle seems to be playing

out as it usually does. I still think we have, you know, this next year going into it. So we've got a lot of potential upside here, especially if we get a blow off top, right? I mean, things could get really hairy at that point. But like your guest said, you know, or no, it was Michael Saylor. I think it was a clip you were playing there. He talks about this move up to 180 and this crash down to 140, but he's like, oh my God, it's over. And you know, we're going to expect all that. Yeah. Can you imagine the retest of

100 that drops like 95 after 150, it's going to be just absolutely savage. A hundred's gone. It's going to 15. So, yeah, well, no 12. I think people are still hooked on 12,000. So, um, you know, we'll be waiting for those calls. We still got to get there. Yeah. So I mean, things are looking pretty good here. We've got so much great stuff going on. I mean, you've got Saylor buying every freaking Bitcoin he can find.

He had his four-year plan that turned into basically like a four-month plan. Four-day plan. It used to be like, sailor buys 500 million. Now it's like sailor buys 4.5 billion on Tuesday and 1.7 billion on Friday. And not just him, Mara. Mara's really picking it up. Mara, the miner about 10 days ago, 11 days ago,

did a billion dollar, same idea, same thing. And now they're looking at another 700,000 with 150,000 extension on that I mean you know and we're gonna I think we're gonna continue to see more of that and you know people talk about nation states you know the U.S. and whatever maybe you know Bitcoin's strategic reserves but not only that but then you got states we've got multiple states trying to pass legislation right now to get their own kind of Bitcoin reserve going in for them. So, you know, and then we got, we've got the rule change coming in January. I mean, it's just so much positive going on here, but also like you guys were talking about earlier in the

show, you know, retail is coming in and here's the hard part with maxis or those of us even that have been in for a few years now, you know, we're very much, you know, you're, you're not your keys, not your coins, you know, all this kind of stuff. But the reality of it is coming forward, most of the people coming in aren't going to care about that. They're not going to care about holding the Bitcoin themselves. They just want exposure to the appreciation and price and whatnot. And as banks start to get regulated, you know, to hold crypto like BNYC, all of a sudden you're going to start getting products that they're going to be like, hey, listen, we can offer you these yield products. We can offer you these

insurance products, all these things, but we have to hold the Bitcoin, obviously. And so I think that's honestly where it's going. And those of us who are real keen about holding our own Bitcoin, I think is going to be kind of to the lower side, but that kind of adoption is what you need if you really want that asset to become serious. So we've got so much great stones, good stuff going on. And Bitcoin here is just consolidating, you know, we're range bound just sideways here, uh, and then looking for the next move up. So I don't, man, I I'm, I'm hard pressed to be upset about any of this. I'll be honest with you. Right. Before we jump to a couple more charges, a few comments here. When Scott said some new coins would lead the market,

it appears it's the old coins, except maybe Ando, maybe now, but you guys, that's pretending that like Sui and Aptos and Han and all these things haven't pulled insane multiples over the past few months. So this is now the, now that we're in the full alt cycle, it'll go from the dinosaurs to new narratives, to new things, in my opinion.

So I don't think that that's false. I think that this is actually not that I was expecting XRP to five or six X, but I think that this is, you know, where we should be. As I said, also, I see, you know, all this euphoria as a cell signal. I think you're wildly underestimating how much euphoria there can be not remembering. It's not like Elon Musk is on Saturday Night Live right now, or that NFTs are taking over the world, or that your Uber driver is telling you about the new meme coin. Marshall, the market can stay irrational for a very, very long time. I believe that we're just seeing early hints of euphoria and you can't just start calling them top signals because euphoria is starting. Yeah, yeah, exactly.

We'll look at that some charts here. But, you know, this is something that we were discussing back mid end of the summer where we were talking about said, look, it looks like this is going to be starting the beginning, like things are bottoming out here. And those are, you know, viewers that were watching back then may remember that. And that's exactly what we've got. So as we jump in here, I me see, I've got a few charts here. We can look at render here, for instance, right? And again, when you're looking down here, August, right? This is August 5th. That was the low. Here we go, boom, boom. Now we're out here.

We're in a third wave right now. That third wave has a $13 target. We're, you know, $8 and 92 cents. That's minimum expected. If it rallies through that, we've got a $17 target. So, I mean, you know, again, I, I don't think that it's time to be selling at the moment, at least not, you know, in terms of it being the end that everybody's over exuberant and that's the end. Um, because we're just, as I'm looking, it's, we're just in wave threes across the board. So, you know, render here, you know, we got minimum $13, secondary target of $17 kind of coming up. GHST here, again, another third wave here. We're sitting about $1.37. We've got a minimum $1.91 target, secondary target of $2.35.

And that starts getting us up here. We usually look, when you're doing Elliott Wave, what you're usually looking for is five waves up around the previous swing high. So I can definitely see these wave threes overextending a bit to get us those fifth waves maybe up there. But minimally, again, $1.91, $2.35 being the secondary target. And a lot of them, the thing is, you know, we're looking at these because a lot of the ones I was looking at have already had these really ridiculous super extensions on their third waves already. So things like ADA and XRP, you know, XRP completed a big multi-year triangle. I've

been talking about that for a while. So we're getting that thrust out of the triangle right now. No surprise at all. If you notice the triangle was there. And Litecoin kind of trying to do that same thing now, trying to follow up a little bit. We'll see how that does. But I mean, the setups are here. If we jump into INJ here, injected,, initial target of 37.77, secondary target up here at 46.21, which is currently sitting around $33 here. And that's even without going in here and counting anything here, this is just looking at a basic one, two, looking for that three coming up. So, you know, continues to look like, you like you know again these are minimum expected targets guys don't think it can't go through them but these give us basic targets to start with once we you

know get the first and second waves in clv look at that move right there absolutely huge move here from uh from just about three cents all the way up here to about almost right around 17 cents. So a huge, huge move. Pulls back. Again, looks to me like we've got a 1 and a 2, a 3 and a 4. So large candle spreads, large spike of volume usually is wave 3. The pullback here is just around 50%, so a secondary wave 4 target. And then this would be a 1 and a 2.

So, you know, basically on this, we've got a target up here of around 29 and a half cents. So if you really want to look for what you're looking for is a breakout above this swing high right here, this one right here will, uh, add confidence to the idea that this one, two interior of wave five is done so that's a breakout above 0.0998 if you can get that uh you should be long up here toward this you know 29 cent area uh for this one and this is a little bit different this one's got the five waves going up there uh but you know again not all alts follow exactly the same path some are you know early summer later but generally speaking most of them you're getting these these third kind of waves going in I've got

one here this is MSOL USD and looking for at least one more push higher here we want to break out like this is as you can see here it's three waves down right so one two three so ABC support at the at the daily pivot looks good. If we look down here, RSI finding support, they're right at neutral. It's on the bullish side of neutral there. We can see that stochastic RSI has reset and oversold and cross bullishly and get ready to break out. So I want to see this break above this through the 304 84 level here. And if we can get that, that's going to lock that in as three waves down, which makes it corrective. And again, based on the height there,

we've got a pattern target of $370, $371 up here off that. So another, you know, even local kind of good move setting up there. But we're seeing a lot of these uh that have either really kind of moved through or just kind of still in those third waves playing out here so you know much like when i was talking about back there in august about the low likely being in right now it seems like we've got these third waves in progress uh and a lot of them still have some room to go on those uh before they you know before they really pull back for their fourth waves and then get that fifth wave going in. So, and with these, the third waves, these, you know, we could see these continue to subdivide there and go even higher than the targets I've given. Again, you

know, these are initial and secondary targets, but you can often get the 2-6-1-8 or the 3-6-1-8 extensions on those. So I, you know, again, I'm like, I'm with you, man. I don't think that this is the end of it. I think this is just kind of getting going. We've got a lot further room for upside here overall. So, you know, don't, don't get in there and try to play every up and down move guys. One of the best things you can do as a trader is identify the trend and just stick with that trend. Don't get cute about it. Don't try to exit at every top and enter at every low. Just try to ride that trend for as much as possible. If you can do that consistently, if you can figure out what the trend is, get in, ride it up for a bit or ride it down

for a bit, whichever way you're going with it, and lock in profit. And just do that over and over again without worrying about where the exact top and where the exact bottom is, you're going to be so, so far ahead of anything that you ever dreamed of as a trader. It really is that simple, right? It is. I'm looking like I just opened, I have like kind of just like, you know, these tabs in a trading view, just kind of a layer one, like playlist over here, you know, that little mixed tape. But I mean, I remember posting it. I was not posting many, but like dot in October, I posted this breakout. There's a weekly chart, you know, through this. It wasn't that high conviction. This is a weird time, but look at how much volume has come back into these. These are ones that people aren't even talking about, like huge moves. We're talking

about like a breakout at $3 and 80 cents. We're sitting at 11. These aren't even ones people are talking about, like Adam. These are huge moves, $3.80 to $10. 11. These aren't even ones people are talking about like Adam. These are huge moves, $3.80 to $10.40. I don't really hear people talking about these. Now you're so overshadowed by quick five and six Xs that nobody's even excited already about three and four Xs. And then you go down. These charts are nuts. Avalanche looks incredible. And then you do have newer ones like Say. This looks like it's going to rocket to new highs for sure. I mean, look at what Sui did. You could have bought this thing in August at 47 cents. It went to four bucks. These are much bigger moves even than the ones that are getting the attention just because people know those old coins, but you can't find a bad chart right now. Yeah. This is when you start throwing darts,

it feels like. Yeah. But you know, the key to that is to be prepared, right? The key of that was to understand back there in August when we were talking about it, that, hey, listen, I really need to start paying attention. You know, Scott and Chris are up here talking about, it looks like we're bottoming out here with the alts. You should be paying attention. Now, I believe I remember even saying that exactly. This is the time where you start paying attention. Because what happens is when you pay attention, then even if you don't enter, then you start paying attention to the charts, you start watching those charts. Then you get ready for these breakouts. You see these breakouts. We had them. We had ADA. We had XRP. We had those all set. Now, did we expect either one would go as far as

fast as they did? No, but we were figured, you know, there's one, there's two, way three's coming in. We're watching that breakout. You know, and that's the key. That's the key. If you're just logging in whenever you want, you know, and hoping to find something that's moving, you know, you're never going to make it where you want to make it, you know, in trading. Trading requires plans and treating it like a business and, you know, all these different things that people don't generally do. And so it's not usually their lack of technical ability, technical analysis and charts. It really is all this other thing that people don't understand, you know, how they should

be treating trading, how they should be approaching the markets. You know, the understanding of what's going on emotionally and psychologically with the markets and the traders and themselves. Those are all the, and along with proper risk management, those are all the things that really kind of decide whether you're going to be successful or not. But yet everybody's out there looking for the next new indicator, the next new strategy, the next new whatever, without paying proper mind to those things that are really important. I do still think we have time and there's going to be plenty of things. I'm just looking at this Tron chart. Tron is crazy, man. I mean, you know, like I remembered you, we were together, you know, I remember these 21, like these huge pumps when this thing launched and

stuff. And here we are, I mean, it hit 40, 45 cents. Absolutely mean that's more than double that previous high from 21 that's just absolutely nuts justin said you know it's kind of funny we have you know the banana zone that roald paul we're finally in the banana zone justin's son buys that banana for like six million bucks and eats it it's like old like i mean how rich is he right now it's amazing it's crazy man it's crazy it's good though right it feels good amazing man like good for good for everybody who's still here like i i made some like kind of sarcastic tweets about xrp like during cancer or something like as a joke and the xrp army was so triggered and mad and hateful i'm like dude i'm so happy for you guys man like you know like you don't need to

be mad now yeah your thing is up you know everything's not an offense to you anymore you're good you won you know like celebrate have fun make a joke it's cool i mean think about xrp man it's almost at the all-time highs you know we we were you know we were at dwc together doing that when we hit that all-time high that in 2017 that uh you know that three dollars and a quarter or whatever and here we are sitting right there absolutely insane but that you know the xrp that's the one i'm too hard a little bit here because that was the one that when everything started getting delisted was that whole thing i remember coming out and saying listen if if you like xrp and whatever and you're upset about this

just hold your coins it'll come back and and it'll be back and it'll do this this whole thing will get passed over as far as what's going on with court. And sure enough, it has, you know, I mean, yeah, it took a dip, but a lot of people sold at big losses with that delisting rather than just holding onto it and going, okay, well, I'll just put that in the back pocket until this gets done. But like I said, man, and here we are almost all time highs here. We're going to hit all time highs with that and larger. And, um, you know, it's a fantastic one. You know, that's the one, that's the one that was the good one, right? That was the one that bought at 66, one hundreds of a cent it in 2017 there and sold, you know,

up there near that $3 area, um, at the end of the year. So I'm loving people make money with XRP. Yeah. I'm happy for everybody that makes money in crypto, especially if you held with conviction for all that time, whether you should have or not. I mean, I think it's just amazing. And those were definitely the days. And I think those days are going to be back. And I've been saying the whole time, like anyone who thought it's just bear market talk, but you think nothing will happen again and it's over and we're too mature, no volatility. And then you have like XRP is the number three coin again. Here we are like

seven years later. It's amazing. Well, I mean, this is, and I should say guys, so like, you know, you struggle through these streams through the bear market and we always show up and especially when it's charts and TA and trades, we don't want to push into people into trades in a bad market.

Yeah. I'm not saying my show, anyone else's, Chris's group, whatever it is, like now the people you like and you kind of follow this time to probably start paying more attention. You probably have a window here where if you are active that you can make a lot of money, I will be doing more charting. Now I just sat on my hands for all that time, bought some things invested, but now I think you can pretty safely trade in this environment. There's good volatility and you could get very lucky on a big move. Yeah. Yeah, for sure. And, and, you know, again, you don't have to just

focus on just the new ones. Um, you know, it's something I talked about, I guess, probably earlier this year, maybe last year, a lot of people saying, well, you know, with all the new ones up here, why would anybody, you know, worry about the old ones and, you know, just looking at charts, you know, we were looking for it to finish that, that pullback and to head up and do its thing. And, but you know, that that's the difference, right? That's the difference between actually understanding what you're doing in the markets and understanding certain specific types of technical analysis versus just kind of throwing money out there and hoping you make money. Yeah. Well, I'm going to let you go with some great comments. Does anyone still have cash

their portfolio? 10% is eating at my soul, pushing all in soon. It'll be the top whenever you push. So let us know. Yeah, there you go. You will be the dead top because it is always a good idea to have 10 to 15% cash your portfolio because when things go down, you can buy dips. It just behaves like an altcoin and take profits on the way up or take the round trip back to bear market lows. Take profits. I 100% agree with that. Even in all the FOMO, if you're way, if you listen, if you are up five, six X on one of these things, take 20% off. You don't need to sell the whole position.

Just take some, take some profits, go buy yourself something nice, invest it, hold the cat, whatever it is. Come on. Yeah. Very important. Take some profits. Yeah. Yeah. That's. Take some profits. Yeah. Yeah. That's all I can say. You should absolutely take profits. Don't get caught up in the, I can never sell because of the super cycle and my community will torture me. Just don't.

Sell when you need to sell, make your life better and don't ride it all back to the bottom. Chris, thank you so much. You guys can follow him on CX West Capital. Check out everything he's got. Like I said, now for most people. And so we went ahead and jumped in, you know, just not too far back here. Ninety seven dollars a month. You get all the group coaching that people used to pay four thousand dollars a year for. You get Fibaswani's threshold theory. You get to learn his proprietary system. And you get access to TWC Traders Club where he, myself and, and Vince put in our trades and our market analysis throughout the day. So even one month just to check it out is absolutely, I think it's going to change your life as a trader. Guys, I have no vested interest here,

but Sats McGee says, come with Chris if you want any money. I make no money from Chris Inks. Not at all. Once upon a time in the very early days, I launched the Discord with him and we made a little money together. And look at you now. It's just amazing. He taught me. He's great. And you should be learning.

All right. I got to go, man. We pushed too far. I got another show coming up. Thank you, Chris. Always a pleasure. Guys, thank you for tuning in. This is when stuff gets fun.

Stick around. All right, guys. Bye. Let's go.