The Wolf Of All Streets - Big Dump Ahead? How Long Will Bitcoin Stay Above $100K? | Trading Alpha

Episode Date: December 19, 2024

Mark Yusko joins me to discuss his groundbreaking vision for Bitcoin’s future and its impact on global finance. In the second part of the show, Dan from The Chart Guys will share his market analysis and some trades.  Mark Yusko: https://x.com/MarkYusko The Chart Guys: https://www.youtube.com/@ChartGuys  ►► I HAVE A QUESTION FOR YOU  👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/ZJuMmEQ ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://archpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Arthur Hayes predicts a huge dump coming for crypto and Bitcoin after inauguration day for Trump saying that he will not reach all of our expectations. Everybody will be disappointed and everything will go massively down. Not sure I agree. We have a lot to talk about beyond that. Of course, the Fed meeting yesterday where exactly what was supposed to happen happened, but apparently humans decided that that was really bad and panicked and sold everything. And on days like this, there's nobody better to talk to than my good friend, Mark Yusko.

And of course, chart guys on the back half. Can't wait to get the show started, guys. Let's go what is up everybody i'm scott melker also known as the wolf of all streets before we get started please subscribe to the channel hit that like button gonna go ahead and bring on mark straight away do not want to waste any time. I mean, if you look at what happened yesterday, we had the 25% basis point cut that was basically guaranteed. We had a slightly hawkish tone where they admitted that inflation was a little bit stickier, which is exactly what we expected. And Bitcoin went from basically 105 down to like 98 98 fine. But like the rest of the market, oh, it was pretty wild. The Dow down 1100 points, longest losing streak since 1974. We had Dick spiking 58%. We had stocks tumbling 3%. We had the largest drop after a Fed meeting since 2001. I mean, why? Why? It's exactly what

was supposed to happen and carnage. Yeah. Well, so why is never discernible, right? Because at the end of the day, this is what was needed to get the market out of, I'll call it silly town, stupid ville, whatever you want to call it. I mean, we're at levels we've only seen one other time in history in 2000. And what I mean by that is multiples, not of earnings, because earnings have been kind of weakish, but multiples of revenue. I heard someone say the other day, NVIDIA trading at 26 times is normal. No, no, you're not talking about earnings. You're talking about revenue. And the guy from Sun Microsystems in 2000 had this great quote. His name is Scott too, Scott McNally, great name. And he said, at 10 times revenue for an investor to make a good return, 10% return. I'd basically have to give you all of my revenue for the next decade,

which is slightly problematic because I would go to jail for not paying my taxes and paying my people and paying my supplier. So I'm not going to do that. Now, his stock went down 98%. Now I'm not saying that Nvidia and all these other stocks are going to go down 98%, but they could. And so yesterday, and like I say, the last 10 days, the only time we've seen this type of activity in equities was in 73, 74, which was after what? The nifty 50, the original, like the pre 2000 kind of Microsoft Wintel craziness, Cisco. We had this thing called the nifty 50 and basically Polaroid and a bunch of IBM, these glamour growth names.

Think of Polaroid, right? A company that's gone, right? No one takes Polaroids anymore. Well, not no one, but very few people take Polaroids anymore. So I think the equity market totally kind of normal to the fact that there was a dissenter in the Fed that that doesn't happen very often. Usually they're all like, oh, we're consensus. We're all one voice. So there's no dissent. Although dissent and dialogue and dissent and debate,

it's like what makes the search of truth. And that's interesting. I just actually just read this this morning, Scott. Individuals seek truth, groups seek consensus. And that's why groups are such bad decision makers. And so long story short, is the equity markets going down, they could and probably should. I mean, Apple. Apple's a great company, right? I have two iPhones right here. It's a great company. But they have very little growth over the last four or five years. Just not really growing.

Stock buybacks. Stock buybacks. Yeah, they do manage earnings per share through stock buybacks. Absolutely. They issue some debt buybacks and stuff and people fall for it. But no growth, essentially, 41 times earnings. When Warren Buffett bought it, it was at 10 times earnings. He sold two thirds of his. By the way, I remember when it was 10 times earnings back then, people saying it was too much. Oh yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. Because it wasn't growing then. Or it was growing less. So look, we're in this crazy time where there's a willing suspension of disbelief. I mean, you look at the market cap of some of these companies

measured in trillions, and you look at how much money they actually make measured in millions and billions, it just doesn't foot. So now, but the problem is the type of action you saw yesterday is a liquidation, right? It's a flush, it's margin calls, because that's the other problem. Too much leverage came back into the system. And you and I have talked about this. I mean, I love the fact that in your opening, you don't talk about how to teach you how to be a better trader or a better speculator or a better gambler. You talk about, we help you become a better investor. And that's a very important term. There are four market participants, investors, traders, speculators, and gamblers. And I'm not casting a

spurt, well, maybe a little aspersion on the last, but maybe at the gamblers. Investors, absolutely. What we do is we try to buy things below their fair value, hold them, and when they get above fair value, we sell them. That's kind of what we do. And then you have traders. Traders don't give a darn about fair value. They just want movement, right? They want to scalp some on the upside, scalp some on the downside, they trade. Most people are bad at it. It's like going to Vegas. The vast majority of people, you're going to donate your money. And that's fine. It's like going to Vegas. The vast majority of people, you're going to donate your money. And that's fine. It's entertainment. But the odds are stacked against you. And trading is kind of the same way. Think about every buy, there's someone on the other side. And you have to ask

yourself, what does that person know that I don't? And how experienced are they, and how professional are they. And if you're trading against Ken Griffin and Millennium, you're probably outgunned in just raw intellectual horsepower. If you're on the other side of Jim Simons, God rest his soul, you're just outgunned. And that doesn't make you a bad person. It's just be knowledgeable. Then there are speculators and all speculator is the opposite side of hedger, right? What's a hedger? A hedger is somebody who owns an asset that needs to sell it to pay their bills, right? Oil producer, gold producer, Bitcoin miner, and a speculator just takes the opposite side of the sale. And those sales usually occur in the futures market, not in the spot market. So you sell oil futures and somebody comes and buys the other side. The gamblers are the problem. The gamblers are the people who come in late

and humans are going to human. They buy what they wish they would have bought. So they're buying things that have already moved and then they put leverage on top. So what happens in days like yesterday is people have leverage. They get a margin call. They can't sell what they'd like to sell because that all just went down. So they sell what they can sell. Cash, gold, Bitcoin. And Bitcoin is interesting in that now Bitcoin is held by a lot of people.

And it is very liquid. And this is what happened in 20, remember 2020? Remember we fell 50%, 5-0 from 10,000 to 5,000, not 50,000, 5,000 in about 13 hours. Went down 50% in 13 hours. And it was like, oh my God, it's the end. Like, no, that is a liquidation of the most liquid asset that these hedge funds had on their balance sheet. And they didn't really understand it or care about it. So they're like, get rid of that. Get me some cash to pay my margin call. So that was an amazing time to buy. You tweeted about it. I tweeted about it. Jason Williams tweeted about it. We all tweeted about it. And it turns out we're 20-fold from that. Just let that hang in the air for a

second. 20-fold. That's pretty good. And yet there's still people that after yesterday are like, oh my god, the world is ending. Bitcoin's over. I'm telling you, when I was reading X yesterday, you would think that breaking below 100 meant we were going to five. Yes. And you would think this morning when I woke up sitting at 102 that the world was ended and this is the price from three days ago when people were ecstatic. Three days. Three days. I mean, Scottott you know what's i said humans are going to human and part of the i love x like oh no no no twitter twitter i said i placed i would never call it x so to me i'm old i'm it's twitter but anyway i don't like x but anyway i think they should call it twix yeah twix there you go oh i like that that's that's tasty not trademarked yet so

but but here's the thing so i love the platform i mean i love it and that has nothing to do with the kind i just love the dialogue you know i make friends there i mean not like you know good buddies but friends we're like associates colleagues all around the world. And it's awesome. I love it. But the thing I don't like about it is that in order to rise above the mass of information, you got to be extreme and you got to be negative because negative sells more than positive. If I say cheery things, people are like, yeah, whatever. That's boring. If I say, oh, my God, the world is ending. Oh, oh, tell me more.

How about pictures of puppies? I mean, anyway, so. Yeah. And so on the back of the exactly anticipated speech that we got from Pal, you also had the dollar fly. You had bonds dump, interest rates rise. But we often talk about the fact that the first reaction is the wrong one. So, of course, this morning, things are kind of bouncing, as we said, Bitcoin back to 102. But there was one more thing that sent Bitcoin down.

And it's a like 20 second video I'd like to show really quick. We're going to watch Powell. Assets that have been buoyant. Do you see any value or benefits in the U.S. government building a reserve of Bitcoin? So, you know, we we're not allowed to own Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve Act says what we can own and we're not looking for a law change. change that's the kind of thing for congress to consider but we are not looking for a law change at the fed okay that's factual the correct answer dummies thought that meant that we can't have a bitcoin strategic reserve the gold reserve is controlled by the treasury the petroleum

is controlled by the department of energy the The Fed was never going to be the... Oh, my God. See, I love that you showed the video because that's the other problem with Twitter and all printed media. It's a game of telephone. No, no. But it is a game of telephone. But even worse, this is why every fight that you've ever had with your spouse,

you know, you're better 90%, my better 90%, like we all over Mary said, you know, you took it to an art form, but, but, you know, Emmy's great. And here's the thing, every fight you have comes from a misunderstanding over words or a text because words are 7% of communication. The rest is intonation, which you don't get intonation on the phone. You don't get intonation on a tweet. If you watch the video where he, in a very dejected kind of way, he's going to read body language, said, I can't answer that question. Okay, he didn't say that, but that's what the body language said. I can't answer that question because I, by law, the Fed, am prohibited from talking about or owning that asset that you want to talk about. He didn't say that the government can't own it.

He didn't say the Treasury can't own it. He didn't say that the government can't own it. He didn't say the treasury can't own it. He didn't say that he didn't answer, actually, he didn't answer the question. Do you think the strategic Bitcoin reserve is a good idea or not? He never answered that question. All he said was, me, little old Jerome, can't own that asset because what people forget, this is the crazy part, the Federal Reserve is neither federal nor has any reserves, right? They're not a bank. Like if you go there and you say, show me the gold bars. They don't have any gold bars. What the Fed is, is an empty building filled with suits that pontificate about the direction of the economy and interest rates. And here's the crazy thing, Scott.

They've made quarterly projections of CPI and GDP growth going back, I think it's like 245 or 246 quarters. How many times do you think they've been right? Zero. going back and gets like 245 or 246 quarters. How many times do you think they've been right? Zero. I mean, I could flip a coin and be right 50% of the time. They have to work really hard to be wrong every single time. It's like Elizabeth Warren, never passing a bill.

I guess the question is, are they wrong? Or are they putting out what they need to put out? Ah, oh, oh, you mean. To share the narrative and make sure that markets stay in the exact fashion and direction. Do as we do, not as we say. Right. So, of course, that's it. It's like Goldman Research. If you look at Goldman research and Morgan Stanley research in the old days, horrible, horrible. And people are like, oh my God. I mean, they pay the average person $4 million a year. How are they so bad?

I'm like, are you that slow? They intentionally tell you the opposite of what they're doing on the prop desk because they need someone to take the other side of the trade. Remember, think about who's on the other side of the trade. So the point about the Fed, they're not a bank. They're not a bank. They are a money manipulation scheme. I was going to use the C word, but a scheme owned by European families and banks. I mean, that's what it is. And the idea that someone thinks that, oh, Jerome's going to trot off with a wheelbarrow full of money and exchange it for a wheelbarrow full of little gold Bitcoins. Like there's no gold and there's no coin. I mean, I hate that they make Bitcoin into a gold coin. It's just no gold, no coins. Yeah. It's just nonsense. But the fundamental misunderstanding of how these things even work

that people would have a negative reaction to what he said. In this case, that's not him trying to manipulate anything. He's just telling you how it is. But you're right about his body language, by the way. It was reminiscent to me of that time. Was it in Davos that they had JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon out in the snow? And they've been just relentlessly asking about Bitcoin for months. He said, I'm not talking about this anymore.

I'm done. This is the last time you'll hear me mention Bitcoin. Like just done over it. And then the next year, he spent his entire 10 minutes, which you could talk about anything in the world, right? Most powerful people in the world. And he spent the next 10 minutes talking about Bitcoin. So he was done except when he's not done. But I think what you do on this show, and it's why I love coming on with you, you go to the source. And that's what people need to do more, right? You can't just read a headline. You can't

just read a tweet. You have to go to the source, listen to the intonation, look at the body language, do some additional research. I mean, look, I'm down here in North Carolina. We just hired Belichick to be the coach. And it was like, oh, Arch Manning is coming from Texas to UNC. Okay, that's a rumor. It's not a fact. It's a rumor. And let's corroborate it. So let's go. Let's go. Now, when you listen to his grandfather, Archie Manning, like, oh, damn, he's coming. Because Archie Manning wants his grandson to play for the Dallas Cowboys. Not to play professional football. He wants him to play for this specific team. I'm like, but Archie, that's not the way it works, right? I mean, there's a draft and the team that does the worst gets to pick the best person. No, I'm Archie Manning and I want my son on the Cowboys. I mean, my grandson on the Cowboys. So Belichick could get that done for me. I'm confident of that. That's what he was saying. Now he didn't say those words, but that's what I'm

reading into his body language and intonation. So I'm pretty sure Arch Manning's coming to Carolina. Maybe he doesn't, who knows. But it's amazing that people were tweeting at me or sending me emails saying, hey, Arch is coming to town. I'm like, based on what? I mean, don't have any corroboration. So go to the source before you make decisions and before you freak out. And so I don't understand why anyone thinks any asset goes up smoothly. Because everybody listening to this knows that Bitcoin is an 80, 70-something-ish vol asset, right? Now, that vol is declining, and it has periods of time where it's very low, but it's still in the mid-70s vol asset.

Oh, the same as Amazon stock, by the way, which people are like, no, that's not true. Actually, look at the math. Look at the data. Amazon has a double-digit drawdown every single year of its existence, 28 years in a row. And when was the right time to sell it? Never. On average, you lose a third of its value every single year. But who was willing to buy it and hold it through all that volatility? I say five people in the whole world. Jeff, mom, dad, ex-wife, and Bill Miller. That's it.

I love this. Bill Miller, the dad, not the son. And Bill Miller, the fourth, is great. Bill, the fourth, is awesome. Call him Quattro. No, I'm just kidding. Probably wouldn't like that. But Bill, the son, is great.

But Bill, the son, is great. But Bill, the dad, is legendary. I mean, his cost of Amazon is $0.07. It's pretty good. I mean, that is a pretty good trade. And he was early to Bitcoin, right? He was where I refer to myself and Dan Moorhead and, you know, a bunch of other guys, Raoul and, why am I blanking on his name? Galaxy. Mike, no, as the OMGs, right? The old macro guys. Because one, we are old. Two, we are all ex-macro guys,

and we happen to be guys. And Bill isn't a macro guy, but he's an old investing guy, so he kind of counts. And he's, I mean, he's legendary. I mean, he's one of the best investors ever. And for him, so there's him and Murray Stahl. And Murray, you should get on the show sometime. I don't know if he would do it, but I think he would. I'd love to have him. So Murray is from Horizon Kinetics. And they're a multi-billion dollar value manager. You're like, what's a value manager doing on Bitcoin? He's actually one of the largest mining support businesses. I love this guy. In the crashes, right? In 17 and 21, he goes out and he buys all the dead machines, like all the miners that have to shut down. He buys all the machines and he pieces them out. And then he sells the parts to miners that need

to fix their stuff. Mad genius, right? Mad genius. So, but he also was an early Bitcoin investor. And I joke, Murray is the only guy who makes me seem bearish on Bitcoin. I mean, as bullish as I am, right? I got the buy Bitcoin sign right there. As bullish as I am, he makes me seem bearish because I only believe we're headed to kind of $6 trillion easy. That's digital gold, the monetary equivalent of gold.

And then probably double that, $10, $12 trillion. He's like, no, Mark, no, $100 trillion, easy. Like, what are you talking about? It's like, no, reverse Gresham's law. So Gresham's law says that bad money crowds out good. We've all seen the picture of Weimar, wheelbarrow and Venezuela, where you got a stack of stuff that couldn't buy a chicken, if you could even get a chicken. That's like $6 million of Bitcoin, right? Yeah. Five, six. Cool. Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. And he says, no and he says no no this is the perfect money and i don't remember who said it i wish i could remember who said just the other day

they said you know satoshi accidentally created perfect money in trying to solve the double spend problem for peer-to-peer transactions. If I had electronic money and I just could copy, paste, and send it to you, like the old days of file sharing of music, then I would be committing fraud and only the Fed can do that. Ha ha ha. I can only print money out of thin air. But so Satoshi solved the problem in the digital world that we can only send, if I actually send it to you digitally, then I don't have it anymore. So he solved the double spend. But in so doing, he created perfect money.

Gold had been perfect money, but it was imperfect in that it wasn't very portable. Portability, divisibility. It wasn't very divisible. So it was perfect-ish. Bitcoin is perfect. It's the perfect money. And so now he's saying it will crowd out all money. That's sub So we'll completely demonetize all money like gold demonetized silver times many multiples. Exactly. And he's not saying it's going to happen tomorrow, but he's so compelling. You're like,

damn, I'm not bullish enough. If that happened tomorrow, we'd be full Mad Max. Oh no, exactly. Exactly. And the whole like biology, like in 90 to 30 days to a million dollar Bitcoin, I'm like, that would be awesome, but I don't want to like- No, it's not going to happen. It's never going to happen. Markets don't work that way. Humans don't work that way. The bots, Ken Griffin's not going to let that happen. Because what happens is the bots, right, which are controlled by Ken and Millennium and Izzy and, you know, Simon's Renaissance, the bots control the moves. And you can see it if you step back and you look long-term. So from February to September, okay, what did we do?

We had the big run-up in February on, oh my God, demand forever, it's awesome, from the ETFs. And then we did this, lower highs and lower lows for seven months. People were like, what the fuck? No, no, that's not supposed to happen. Well, you're not paying attention. The bots are ding in the future every day. Millennium has 2 billion of Bitcoin ETFs. No, they don't. I mean, yes, they do, but they also have

two or more billion of shorts in the futures market because they are a market neutral firm. So the bots, and what happens is, and particularly you're going to see it next week, right? In the holiday week. So on the holiday days where the market's still open, but nobody's at work, like Monday, I said to my guys on Monday, so are we going to have our call on Monday? Yeah. No, no, I'm out. Like, no, no, no. We close after Christmas through New Year's. We didn't close the day before Christmas, but my guys did a coup and so now we're closed. But so on that day, I guarantee Monday, the bots will do something either up or down. I don't know which one, but they will move the price because there's no humans there to react. And so the bots skim all this money. And that's why Ken is so rich, because

he built a system that is just better than... And same with Renaissance and Millennium. But the fact that people don't think about this and don't understand, now we're in a higher highs and higher lows accumulation phase. And now the reality of accumulation. And, you know, this guy saying, oh, you know, there's no way they're going to pass the Bitcoin strategic reserve and everyone's going to be disappointed after the inauguration. Okay. I mean, here's what could happen. The Donald is all about the Donald. Let's just be very clear on this. That's what Nick Carter was saying yesterday. He's like, no strategic reserve, just quickly. He was like, no strategic reserve because it would show that the United States didn't have faith in the dollar. I don't know that I agree with that, but that was- No, no. I think that's totally wrong. Here's the thing.

The Donald is all about the Donald, right? In his first term, what did he do? He passed bills. I mean, he didn't pass them. Congress passed bills that he signed or didn't veto that enriched him and his family, right? From inheritance taxes to exempting real estate from this partnership. So everything he did was to make himself richer, like housing the Secret Service people at his hotels when he played golf, all about enriching himself. Whatever. That's what, you know, politicians have been doing that forever. But this time, he's doing it in crypto. And everyone in politics does it in the stock market. Look at Nancy Pelosi, et cetera, et cetera, and Mitch McConnell and all these guys. Richard Burr down here, right before lockdowns, magically, Richard Burr, who is not a biologist,

bought a bunch of healthcare stocks. It was uncanny, uncanny. So here's the thing. And then when he got accused of insider trading, he's like, hey, it's part of my job. It's part of my compensation. And he didn't go to jail. Martha Stewart goes to jail. He doesn't go to jail.

I don't, it's weird. So what Trump is doing through this entity that he owns, he, and it's really his son, because I don't think Donald really understands this stuff, is buying a bunch of crypto. Bitcoin and Hedera and XRP. A bunch of things that might be approved for ETFs next year. Shocking how that works. And, oh, and they're talking about exempting American coins. What the fuck does that mean?

From capital gains. From capital gains. So here's the thing. As much as I hate, and I do hate XRP and Cardano because there's no there. There's no developers. There's no nothing. And look, Brad Garlingano because there's no there there. There's no developers. There's no nothing. And look, Brad Garlinghouse, he's smarter than me.

He's richer than me because he built a big old scam that's working. And no one likes when I say that, but there's no there there. And Circle, which actually has a real stablecoin, $42 billion of value, real, backed up by dollars, which is why a strategic Bitcoin reserve would be good for the dollar, not bad. But real has about a $5 billion market cap. XRP, fully diluted, which has like $50 million in their stablecoin, has $170 billion of value. It's just, anyway, because this is likely to happen. So I think Trump, he got told to go to Nashville because, because hey there's this bunch of people that that you know they're one one issue voters kind of like the abortion people are one issue voters go and tell

them what they need to hear and he did and i i still one of my favorite things and you remember this he says on day one i will fire gary gensler and the place went and you could see it in his face you guys really like that you really say it that. I'm going to say it again. I'm going to say it again. And it was amazing. And it was, so he's stuck. He has to free Ross. He has to do the strategic reserve.

Now, Congress could override, but Lummis is really strong. So I think that's going to happen. Yeah, I think it could happen just in a more muted fashion. But we just hold on to what we have and we call it a strategic reserve and great. And it would be absolutely huge, just huge for Bitcoin. Well, look, everything that isn't hostility is huge. And the hostility is gone. The hostility is gone. Look at the four people that are in charge of finance. Scott Besant, mad genius, amazing guy,

pro-crypto, not like a degen, but he's definitely pro-crypto, really smart, and he's going to be supportive. Lutnick, clearly pro-crypto. I mean, Cantor Fitz owns 5% of Tether and there's some dicey stuff there, but he's pro-crypto. Then you got the new head of the SEC, totally pro-crypto. And now you got David Marcus, who's one of the best thinkers on digital that there is and was way ahead of the game with the Libra project. And if it weren't for debanking, they would have got that out and we would have had 4 billion people with wallets around the world trading the Facebook coin. So you're telling me that those four people are somehow going to turn

negative? Yeah. Every position, even the ones that are completely unrelated to crypto or finance or the economy, they're all pro Bitcoiners. And that's because it's all technologists. Right. And so I actually, it'll come out Sunday. I know we're over time, but I interviewed Raoul Pal yesterday or two days ago and we were talking about the election. He was like, it wasn't Republican Democrat. He was like, the technologists took over. Everybody's talking about the billionaires, whatever. He's like, Brian Armstrong won that election. He's like, they saw the opportunity with Trump. They gave a bunch of money. They swung all the elections. He's like, and now all the billionaire technologists who just want to be able to innovate and be entrepreneurs in this country, which has been stifled for the last however many years, they won. They're all going into power and all this stuff is

going to push forward. And whether it's in their self-interest or it's in the interest of everybody for us, obviously, as the United States to lead in technology. But he said this was a technologist revolution. That's what his lecture was. It wasn't Trump. It was the tech, not which way it was, but like it was that Trump realized this time that he should put smart people in positions of power and follow them and let them do their thing. And make a lot of money. He's pulling up Putin, right? Putin created one of the largest fortunes in the world. Never gets reported, but he's worth 300-ish billion-ish, right? So Trump's going to do the same thing. And that's fine. I mean, it just is the way it is. But to your point, what's amazing about this is we've gone away from the nonsense of just graft and corruption for just the political elites

in the Democratic Party to grafting corruption and cronyism for the people at the top. But the trickle down is real. And you can front run them in crypto, which you never have been able to before. But more importantly, look, everyone rails about Bezos, right? Oh, he's too rich. He needs to pay his fair share. Shut the hell up. That company did not exist 28 years ago. And today it employs five and a half million people. Five and a half million people. In fact, not this past year, but in 23, it was more than a hundred percent of net new jobs. One company. So stop with the, oh, the person at the top. No.

If the person at the top negotiated a good deal to keep a bunch of comp, so be it. But as long as the company generates jobs, generates opportunity, generates wealth, because- It's a net positive regardless of- The silly idea that you can create wealth by printing money, it's just not true. It's never been true. It's never been true because if it were true, then everyone would do it. And Stephanie Kelton is an idiot. And I'm glad almost gone. Although this new bill is all Keltonisms. It's all about, oh my God, we got to get the whole is done before we're out of power. And hopefully they won't pass it because it's trash. And then

it has a whole bunch of other sinister stuff in it, not related to finance and spending. But once the technologists are in, and whether you love or hate Elon, look, I've never been a big Elon fan, although lately, this isn't true, both Trump and Elon. I really didn't like them very much. But every once in a while, they would say stuff. I was like, huh, it's like really logical. I like that. Okay, I'll listen more. And then they'd say something stupid. And I'm like, I see. But now lately, they're saying a lot of great stuff. Like Elon's views on education. Wow. I mean- And he's the one who pretty, I mean, a lot of people pointing to what

he said yesterday, which means that anyone who votes for the spending deal should lose reelection. I mean, things pretty hard. It's incredible how much power he has now. It is. And you can go down the rabbit hole of how did he get so much power? And is he, you know, like, anyway, but it doesn't matter the fact is the things that are being promoted today like you say it's not to me it's not about left and right anymore it's about in and out you're either in power you're out of power and now in we have a chance to have an american renaissance really make america great again right we've always been great. But the last four years, I actually twice went to look at other places I might move to. Not embarrassed to say that. It was-

Where did you go, one of them? I went to Costa Rica and Portugal. I came away from Costa Rica thinking nice, but not quite. And look, a bunch of people live in what's the main city? San Jose. And they love it. I'm like, still looks a little lockdown-ish like Johannesburg to me. So no. Portugal, move there tomorrow.

Move there tomorrow. It was like San Francisco, but better coffee and the people were amazing. And so I would move there tomorrow. But my wife's not moving yet because things aren't that bad. And now with the change, we don't have to move because I think we're on the right path. Yeah, I remember when I was, we're going to, we're going to wrap. But I remember when I was down in Puerto Rico looking not so long ago and they were saying, listen, like if you think Biden's going to win, buy real estate in Puerto Rico right now, because everything doubles when everybody runs away and comes to Puerto Rico. He's like, but if you think Trump's going to win and you

still want to move to Puerto Rico for no taxes, maybe wait six months till after the election. There you go. There you go. And if you do decide, if you do decide to do it, one of my classmates from Notre Dame runs a bank there. So it gets you a good mortgage. Ah, perfect. Exactly what I'll do if I decide to move program. Mark, I know we kept you like 15 minutes past. This is always great. Awesome. Hey, I wish, I wish you and yours and everyone on, on, on, on the show the best, the best for the holidays, uh, safe travels, wherever you go, be with friends, family, loved ones. Uh, and let's, let's come back in the new year and crush it. 2025 to be amazing. And, uh, same to you and yours and enjoy your extra unplanned vacation day on

Monday. All right. Thanks, man. All right. Thank you guys. Everybody follow Mark's right down below, obviously an X Mark Yusko, I believe on Twitter. But the ex name is down below in case there's like another letter in there that I forgot about or something. And we made Dan wait patiently in the wings today. I'm sorry, man. No worries. I just followed him. He's new to me. And I like, you know, I was sitting here nodding a lot in the background and I've already followed him. And he's the kind of guy I would like to sit next to on an airplane. Mark is a legend. He's got stories literally for days.

We'll talk your ear off. He used to run the endowment at Notre Dame. I mean, Morgan Creek is one of the most notable hedge funds in history. He knows every buffet on down. Just an incredible guy. Incredible to know. And very early on crypto. He once said to me, he was like, I've made all my money by siding with the criminals before something became

legitimate. It was like porn on the internet, crypto was for Silk Road and drugs. And it's got endless insight. But still need to look at the charts because yesterday was absolutely wild. I pointed out some of the notable, how big this day was in context of history, what Bitcoin obviously did in reaction, the words of Powell. We can kind of look at the chart and see most of it, right? Yeah. I mean, what happened in the NASDAQ and the broader market yesterday is what I call a sucker punch, which Mark talked about the liquidation flush that took place. So, you know, look up chart guys, SuckerPunch. I got a whole long webinar about it, but that's what it is. It's just overcomplacent longs in a bull market that, you know, they just get flushed out

because they're too confident and it's almost like a reset. And, you know, we see that in all these bulls. You know, Bitcoin used to do that with a 30% drop before V-shaped to new all-time highs back in the 2017 or 2020 bull runs or 2021 bull runs that we had. So nothing unusual there. As far as where we stand now, we're looking for a four-hour lower high on this bounce. Essentially, heading into the FOMC yesterday, I was on the 12-hour chart. And rising wedges in a bull market have a much lower probability than in a bear market or when lower highs are most likely. But I was watching the same. If Bitcoin is going to

see weekly consolidation, which we know is inevitable, it would likely be from this 12 hour rising wedge. So now the big question is, do we reject a back test and then drop to a lower low? And if so, weekly consolidation is going to be underway. And again, there's nothing wrong with that. It has to happen. We'll look for a weekly high or low to be the most likely scenario on that pullback. It's essentially just watching the next day or two to determine, is weekly consolidation into next week the most likely scenario or not?

And how we respond to the flush of yesterday is going to give us a lot of that information. Yeah. I mean, I think that it's just tails all this time, a bunch of leverage, bunch of bullishness, something triggers, somebody takes advantage and boom, there's a huge volatility and nothing fundamentally here says a bull runs over to me. And, you know, people, people just need to prepare themselves in the sense that we could drop to the upper 80,000s and the weekly chart still remains extremely strong in terms of retracement size and all that. So we just got to remember that 10% moves on Bitcoin pullbacks aren't that big a deal, big picture.

I mean, 30% is not supposed to be a big deal. Yeah. I mean, I think we're supposed to be a big deal. Yeah. I mean, I think we're entering the phase of liquidity with the amount of liquidity entering Bitcoin that eventually 30% is going to be a big deal because when there's significant liquidity, the volatility shrinks a bit. But again, there's nothing wrong with this chart. You anticipate weekly consolidations inevitable. Why the sentiment is so bad on crypto

is the altcoins. And that's just the way that it is. The dominance chart has to confirm a weekly downtrend if we're going to see altcoins get their time to shine. But I mean, I've said it so many times. There's so many altcoins that I do not believe are going to hit all time highs in this run. And I think a lot of people are hopeful for, you know, 500 to 1000% moves on a bunch of these coins, which, again, you know, I won't say it's impossible, but most likely scenario, I just don't see that happening this cycle, because of a number of factors, one of them being the ETFs being where a ton of this, this Bitcoin capital is going, that doesn't trickle down, right? Because it's stuck. But I will say like on dominance, I just have this chart, right? So this is December 6th of 2016 is this red line. You can see that December was kind of rough, but then obviously dominance fell off a cliff. If we

believe in the four-year cycle, you got dominance peaking right around Christmas, Monday, the 28th of December in 2020. And then in January, it falls off a cliff. And now we had this high kind of right at the end of November, beginning of December, 61% dominance. Maybe there's just yet another lower high in the cycle. And January, it falls off a cliff. So we generally see November kind of good for alts as people get excited about the cycle again. Then December, you get a little punishment again, kind of around the holidays and Bitcoin dominates and then it falls off a cliff. So I'm not saying it has to repeat, but it's doing exactly what it's done every sort of

December of the four-year cycle. And this is a visualization of that. This is the six-month chart on the dominance. And again, if you show me this chart, you don't tell me anything about it. You don't tell me what asset it is. You don't tell me the timeframe. I tell you to scout this lower high and look for this range to continue tightening. And so that's what we're looking for. Again, it can take months to take place because each candle is six months here. It's a very long-term

chart, but that's the most likely scenario. So just watching to see, can that shape up? So other than that, Ethereum, keep an eye. It's almost like every time Ethereum gets to a thousand, the market throws up, the crypto space drops a leg down. Clearly ETH is struggling with that zone. And we know, same thing, ETH hasn't seen weekly consolidation yet. We've got a stair step the last two months, essentially. And we have to be watching, is this going to be a head and shoulders that forms and leads to weekly consolidation? That's absolutely on the table as a possibility. So I have to be watching for that. But this is what I call a level from space where everybody can see it and everybody is trading off of it and reacting to it.

And so you're also building up pressure where, you know, best case scenario, I might've talked about this in the past, but this isn't a good looking cup and handle. But if we were able to bull flag on the weekly, it's the psychology of a cup and handle where you have the resistance level from space, you reject from it, and then you blow through it. And that's obviously what the bulls are hoping shapes up. But I got to turn 4,000 into support if ETH is going to do anything, right? It's not great. It has had. So like, you know, on the more fundamental side, like it has at least like UTFs are seeing,

you know, very steady inflows and sizable. It seems like the interest is increasing. Just doesn't seem like it can break out yeah this is the three-day eth btc chart it has to be an inverse head and shoulders we have to get over that double top if not it's it's a loss for the bulls so at least in the short term so definitely uh watching closely because the you know the next two weeks into the start of next year, this is going to be pretty telling for ETH. But still hanging on, just remaining within striking distance of 4,000 at the moment. Another name I'm watching is Sol. It's been doing nothing for the last month. But again,

this is healthy consolidation. And we're backtesting this previous resistance zone, approaching it to try and hold it as support, all these resistances. And so for Sol, I'm watching this 12-hour channel just as a bit of a visual guide. This has to break bull for a weekly higher load to be set. And essentially, just everybody gets turns in markets as we get rotation around. And Sol led the way from the bottom of the alt coins way back when and now it's taking a breather while other names get their turn and so just

watching to see does soul get another round again uh and of course we got to see soul btc do its thing but uh that's something i'm keeping an eye on you know soul btc has a pretty important base of support here as well so keeping an eye on uh whether or not soul can get some rotation back into the start of next year as well hard not to take a serious look at solana 200 yeah and that's the other thing the psychological 200 level that's uh being back tested and trying to hold it aligns so well with everything you just drew and it's like the basically the top of the whole range that traded and basically through all of 2024 after it sort of put that peak in at 200 and whatever, seven or something at the beginning earlier in the year before that long consolidation. I think that you can set a pretty tight stop and take a shot here and take a small loss.

So the risk reward of Sol, if you think the market's going to rip further, is pretty good. Yeah, there's a confluence of signals, as you mentioned. It's the one thing that gets me that's a little bit hard. It's like, okay, if I'm looking at a setup that I like on Sol, but Bitcoin hasn't started weekly consolidation yet, and I know it's inevitable. And if Bitcoin pulls back, then alts are going to pull back. That's one thing that makes me not go aggressive personally. But you can still, again, as you mentioned, the stop level is clear and close by, so can take a shot and worth keeping an eye on Sol. Absolutely. Anything else you're watching? I mean, how do you put this in context of the

big move in macro yesterday? I haven't even looked. I'm assuming things are bouncing this morning to some degree. Yeah. I mean, this is the NASDAQ weekly chart, right? Is this the world is collapsing? Oh my God, the world's ending. Look at that. It's dead. I'm looking for rotation. You know, the MAG, this is MAGS.

This is the Magnificent 7 ETF. It just went straight up for two weeks or whatever. While that was happening, you know, the Dow collapsed. Energy collapsed. Healthcare collapsed. And so I'm watching to see, do we get a shift in rotation? Do we get money out of the Magnificent Seven going elsewhere? Where's it going to go? Well, XLF this morning is one of the names benefiting. So essentially, I've referred to the sucker punch yesterday as you shake up the snow globe, and then you watch to where all the little particles settle.

And when the dust is settling, where is that capital that got flushed yesterday or that took profit in the mag seven? Where is that going from here? And that's what we're looking for over the next couple of weeks into the end of the year to help answer that question. Love it. I think it's going to be just fine. Usually get that big overreaction to any kind of news and then we just kind of float back up and it's like it never happened a week later. Holidays are always going to be weird anyways. I am. The bigger picture, the fact that we've gone straight up all year, it does make me cautious and prepared for eventual

monthly consolidation. So there are spots that I look to hedge my long portfolio and stuff like that. And the S&P 500 gave us a nice little double top before this dump to do that. But yeah, just need to stick with the longer term trends, but also just remind yourself so you're not one of those over leveraged complacent bulls that get flushed out because monthly consolidation will happen and we'll pull back for a couple of months. And we just need to be prepared for that in our scenarios and our game plans.

Don't get chopped up using leverage guys, follow chart guys, of course on X YouTube. I don't know if I'll be here next week on Thursday for sure. Not on Christmas. I don't know if you'll be able to make it, but I'll be here. Awesome. So we will be here on. That's all we got, I guess, for today. Tomorrow,

I'll be back with the Friday five again, give chart guys, Dan, a follow both on YouTube and on X incredible content and a lot to learn. And that's all we got. We'll see you guys tomorrow. Thanks, Dan. See ya. Let's go.