The Wolf Of All Streets - Big Win For Crypto! | Ethereum Pump Ahead!

Episode Date: September 7, 2023

Accounting rules are changing for digital assets: soon US companies will be required to report their crypto holdings at fair value. What will it change and why is it important? KC Chohan, the Founder of Together CFO, a tax advisory, will explain why. In the second part of the show, Dan The Chart Guy will provide his market analysis. KC Chohan: https://twitter.com/KCchohan_ Dan The Chart Guy: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnqZ2hx679DqRi6khRUNw2g ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Yesterday, we saw another massive win for the crypto industry and Bitcoin and crypto prices did precisely nothing. As I've said in this part of the market cycle in the year before the happening, it's unlikely that we see any real movement in price based on good news. But this is one of the biggest stories that we've had in a very, very long time, and it will matter massively in the future. I have some amazing guests today. As usual, I've got Casey Chohan to talk about accounting. I know the most exciting topic in the world, crypto accounting, but it is very, very relevant today. Just ask Michael Saylor. I've also obviously got Dan from Chart Guys at the end. What's this story? I'll tell you in a minute.

What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. I'm having some lighting issues today. My light was in front of the camera there at the intro, which means if you're wondering how my light gets in front of the camera, it's because I have a four-year-old son who comes into my office and just moves things and he wrecks things. And sometimes I look in the background and there'll be like one of those sticky hands on the wall or something crazy like that.

Anyone who has kids might understand. Now, guys, I don't want to disappoint you today. I know that we have some amazing guests, but I promised a different guest yesterday and we didn't make it happen. If you guys are following me on Twitter, I was watching Tucker Carlson interview a cokehead who apparently had sex with an ex-president. Very big, impactful news. No, I think it's absolutely disgusting what the news has become. It's tabloid. And so I tweeted yesterday, tomorrow on my show, I'll be hosting a 79-year-old crackhead who raped Satoshi Nakamoto's pet horse and swears the anonymous creator of Bitcoin was a one-legged bullfrog. Tune in.

I didn't bring that guy. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I know I promised I don't like to let you guys down, but I do not have that guest today. But I do have two much better guests. I've got Casey Chohan. And then, of course, on the back end, we've got Dan from The Chart Guys, who's here every week to keep us calm and tell us what's happening in the markets. I'm going to go ahead and bring on Casey right now. What's up, man? We woke you up really early today. Yeah, it's a little early here, but always happy to have a chat. So thanks for inviting me on. But you do, I mean, you do taxes for crypto people, which means that we're all insane and we'll keep you up at any time of the day and night. So I imagine that you keep very strange hours in the first place.

Yeah, always. I'm a night owl at the best of times. And plus, you know, you do what you need to do. I've got a newborn as well. So I know what you were mentioning about kids and all hours and things moving around. So it is absolutely wild. I mean, I was for everyone. I was I had a meeting with Casey yesterday, who if you haven't seen him on my podcast, he explained a lot of really interesting tax strategies that you can use if you are in crypto. And he was having to deal with me talking about how to account for things like Voyager bankruptcies and losses in crypto. I know a lot of you have experienced that. So I just have to say personally, if you have, this is the team that can help you through something like that and actually understands it. But let's talk about this. And we've got this big clickbait title, big win for crypto. We'll get to the Ethereum pump ahead part later. That's not the story. But the big win for crypto

here, obviously, is that the FASB says crypto assets should be marked at current values. That's the Financial Accounting Standards Board. Maybe you can explain to us first what the policy was before and why it was so important that we get this changed. Yeah, so before, they were holding us all in limbo. They weren't really making a decision to allow us to put the crypto clearly on a balance sheet. So that then held out the big boys from jumping in because they were unsure whether they could put this asset clearly on the balance sheet because of the so-called volatility in the market with Bitcoin. So by doing this, it's allowed to bring greater transparency and accuracy around that financial reporting. And it's just going to be a great thing for all companies that are kind

of forward thinking, because we've been wanting this. And we know we've been talking about this for years. We've been wanting this for a long while because it will allow bigger companies to get into crypto and hold that as an asset. Yeah, this is what I so for anyone who doesn't understand this in very, very layman's terms, you'll all remember micro strategies sparked the last bull market in Bitcoin by putting Bitcoin on the balance sheet. Everybody knows about that. Michael Saylor basically had full control of the board, full control of the company. He was able to do something like this. And then we saw Tesla, Elon Musk, and Square, Jack Dorsey, like three guys who had a lot of control of their companies, let's just say, put Bitcoin on the balance sheet. Michael Saylor then invited 2000 CFOs, you guys might remember, at the beginning

of 2021 to explain to them how to put Bitcoin on the balance sheet and then crickets. It never happened. And the reason was these accounting rules. So in layman's terms, let's say you're a company who had an amazing quarter, your business absolutely crushed it, but you have Bitcoin on your balance sheet. Let's say that Bitcoin was $25,000 when you bought it and it's $25,000 when you're still holding at the end of the quarter. But at some point in that quarter, you had one of those crazy days where Bitcoin went down to fifteen thousand dollars and came back on your balance sheet. You have to had to will still do until twenty twenty five account for Bitcoin at fifteen thousand, not the current value at twenty five thousand,

meaning that you could actually have a bad quarter of earnings. Even if your company did well, your stock could suffer. your board could be angry. It's insane, right? So you had to market to market to the lowest point it ever was during that accounting period and not to its current value. Which is crazy, right? Because it's just, it's unfairly skewing the numbers down rather than giving you a more fair representation of what that asset is at that given time. So they've also put some verbiage in about unrealized gains and losses. So we're yet to finalize all of this. It's huge news, but they still have a lot of detail to provide us, but it's definitely going in the right direction. Yeah. I mean, even to add to what I said, to my understanding, even if it's way up, right? You bought it at 25,000, it's sitting at 50.

You still have to account for it at 25. So you don't even, you can't even get upside. You can literally only get downside from the previous rules. I think it sucks that this is not going to come into effect until 2025. Which is strange, right? Because it's like, why announce it now

that when it's going to be coming into effect in a couple of years' time, it again makes no real sense either. It's more like you're trying to keep us off your backs by giving us a future vision. But 2025, like, come on,

this could easily be implemented. They could do it now. I mean, they could literally do it for the 2024 taxes. Obviously, maybe even for 2023, probably retroactively. But you can see Saylor, obviously, he was kind of the champion behind this, been complaining about it. By the way, this comes through the SEC.

So it's interesting that this is very good news from a very contentious SEC. Fair value accounting is coming to Bitcoin. The upgrade to FASB accounting rules eliminates a major impediment to corporate adoption of Bitcoin as a treasury asset. So like I said, I mean, you would have had to literally be insane as a risk manager or a corporate treasurer to put any crypto asset on your balance. Literally impossible, right? I mean, there's no reason you would ever do that. There's zero upside. But now with the new laws, it's just like having cash, right? Yeah, it really is.

It makes it a lot more appealing for more people. I think kind of a lot of people that I heard were in crypto, a really small amount of their portfolio, say 5% or less. I think this will now change that and people will start having a bigger mix of crypto as part of their overall portfolios. I mean, do you think that there are companies that have been sitting on the sidelines saying, hey, we'd love to put Bitcoin on our balance sheet, we do believe it's a hedge against inflation, whatever the narratives are, who obviously wouldn't, and now we'll be looking at this yet again, it's 2025. Again, so this even gives the ones who aren't considering it a lot of

time to think about it. It gives them all more time to research it and fully understand it, or at least understand it as much as they can. And absolutely, I think we'll see a big influx of huge companies putting in billions of dollars and kind of following Michael Saylor and Tesla. I know Tesla changed their minds and went back and then weren't accepting it and then were. So they were teetering in and out. It's typical Elon Musk, right? But I think others will start following and they'll see an opportunity there, especially with what's going to go on with Bitcoin over the next few years with the half in and the value probably going to go up as well. So I think for anyone who was on the fence or unsure, it's going to tip them over to actually get involved. Yeah, I totally agree with that. And I think that now it's likely we're going to

see a lot of people doing this. But that doesn't mean that we're a pleasant tax haven for United States citizens investing in crypto, though. It's interesting. This is one great rule. I think it will make a big difference for corporate treasuries. This is the way that they can institutionally adopt crypto. But on the flip side, we have, you know, sort of the Biden administration and the SEC saying there's these massive loopholes for crypto millionaires and that they're taking advantage of. And I looked around and unfortunately, I hadn't met you yet. And I'm like, I paid a lot of taxes, probably a lot more than I should have because of crypto. There were no loopholes for me. There's loopholes for rich people that crypto might be taking advantage of. But is it fair

to say that there are crypto specific loopholes that anyone's taking advantage of. But is it fair to say that there are crypto specific loopholes that anyone's taking advantage of? No, you know, a lot of this is just clickbaity stuff or that they're trying to push a narrative that isn't necessarily true. There's loopholes and structures for all different things. I think when the politicians get involved, they're usually pushing their own agenda to meet their narrative, which is usually to get reelected. We don't need to get into the politics of this one specifically, because there's never a good answer to that. But generally speaking, if you're structured in the right way, you can significantly reduce capital gains tax, which does include the volatility within crypto.

Right. But if they're going to make that argument as a government, they should be saying closing tax loopholes for wealthy people, because 99% of the people who are taking advantage of that structure have nothing to do with crypto, correct? Correct. Yeah. And it's funny, isn't it? When the billionaires' tax returns get leaked, it's clear to see that they all pay 5% or less effective tax rate, regardless of if it's ordinary income or capital gains. And then even presidents, you know, that when presidents are paying $750 and their son-in-laws are also doing the same, it's a bit hypocritical, right? Yeah, I think it's a little bit more than a bit hypocritical,

to be honest. Actually, I saw a story today. Now I want to bring it up just because you're here. Speaking of billionaires, this study said global crypto wealth study reveals six Bitcoin billionaires and 88,000 crypto millionaires. Here's the study right here. I literally almost fell over laughing. I think that I personally know six Bitcoin billionaires that nobody knows about. Do they really believe that there's only six Bitcoin billionaires in the world? I feel like, I mean, yeah, people don't advertise when they're Bitcoin billionaires. We're talking about maybe what, having a thousand-ish Bitcoin or something. It's so funny because people, we can equate this this to the wider audience by looking at the Forbes 100 list.

The real wealthy people are not going to want to be on that list. They don't want to be on public display. The same way crypto people do not want to be on public display so people can come after them or come out the woodwork. So, again, click-baity titles. They just want to get attention for their 15 minutes. That's all it really is. I mean, a thousand, like, you know, 8,000, 9,000, 10,000,

whatever the Bitcoin number is that makes you, it's probably even a hundred. It's a lot more. But anyways, I mean, think about all the people who early mined Bitcoin. And, you know, there's people who pay what would be a billion dollars now for a pizza, right?

I mean, in the early days, you got to imagine there's so many of these people out there. My youngest client, my youngest multi-millionaire client is an 18-year-old kid. Yeah. These days. Is he in crypto? 100%. Like, he's at college.

He didn't know anything. But he was just in crypto super early and made an absolute fortune. And he was smart enough not to squander it all. So are there any other just blatant accounting issues you would say in the United States that we need to fix? It sounds like this is one of them, obviously. I mean, I would say in the defense of the IRS, I do think that the wash trading, wash sale rule should apply to crypto, which generally doesn't. But I think that that's happening now because a lot of people in crypto have taken advantage of the ability to basically harvest taxes by taking a loss and buying it right back.

You can't do that in stocks. Maybe that's the one loophole they can say that we do get, but that's going away. Is there anything else? The way I look at it is the system is corrupt from inception right there's always two sets of rules one for the informed and one for the uninformed so the way we can kind of conceptualize that in today's world is loopholes versus structures where the uninformed people are looking for what they deem as legal loopholes that they can jump through. Whereas the elites all have structures that far supersede any loophole. That's the way it was built from inception. So are we ever going to fix that? No. Can we just make the most of what it is? Absolutely.

And the problem is that loopholes change all the time so every few years old loopholes will go out new ones will come in the irs will change the rules on previous loopholes and backdate new things and like audit things so it's always changing and the person that gets hit the most is that middle class american that gets squeezed all the time because the elites are not going to get squeezed. And then the poor don't have anything to squeeze. It's always that middle class of people that get squeezed the most. We could have a full hour on different things in terms of which loopholes and what. But like if you make the grace point, if you're just a salary

worker, whether you're working paycheck to paycheck or you're saving money or whatever, these loopholes don't apply. You're getting a W-2, your taxes. These loopholes are for people who are holding assets. They have a securities platform that they can take loans against, or they have some complex trust structure intact that basically allows them to continually reinvest without having to pay taxes. Exactly. Yeah, that's really the key is that and those people are often in family offices, and they have armies of people that are working for them. So they're kind of a lot more protected than the average person on the street, or even the average successful business person, let's call them a new millionaire, because there's so many more millionaires being created every single day. But they just don't have that team infrastructure around them to get into that advanced level of tax savings. Yeah, I want to circle back really quick before

I let you go on the FASB. A lot of people were very angry at various times when SpaceX or Tesla or Elon Musk sold Bitcoin. But when you look at the old rules, if you thought you were going to take a loss, you had to sell it to avoid that, right? Based on whatever else was happening in your company. People don't realize that. If you're having a bad quarter and you're at a gain, you should sell at that point, you should have sold your Bitcoin because then you get to pad your earnings for the quarter. But if you thought it was about to drop, you also had to unload it because you couldn't afford to mark it down. So you can't really be mad at anyone who actively sold or bought at different times based on what was happening with the rest of their company.

Yeah, 100%. And plus, Elon Musk is arguably one of the smartest men in the world and one of the richest men in the world. So he knows what he's doing most of the time i wouldn't ever bet against him personally okay so last final question before i let you go because i happen to just look at the chat and the only thing anyone's talking about is exactly where you're from and exactly what your accent is we have sheffield birmingham i think we had like a york i don't know we have a lot of there you go the person said yorkshire i'm from north yorkshireshire, a small town called Middlesbrough, Northeast England.

Yeah, so here you go. See, is that a Yorkshire accent? We do have somebody who absolutely nailed it. So not Birmingham. I think we had a consensus here that it was Birmingham, as I'm reading through it over here. You wouldn't be able to understand me if it was a Birmingham accent. I can't understand half the people from from england depending on where they're from but you it's very clear so uh no problems i've lived in la a long time my accent's kind of watered down

a little bit now yeah well yeah i'm surprised you uh don't uh talk like a valley girl now no we we avoid that at all costs so i'll talk like one of the girls from from clueless so by the way anyone like i said guys not to pitch but if if you're having trouble with any of these complex crypto rules or you're looking for a way to understand all this casey is your guy casey where can they all find you after this yeah you can hit me up at together cfo.com it's my website we've got some great tools on there. We've got some great giveaways in our school community, all totally free.

Just trying to add as much value as we can. Awesome, man. Thank you so much. Thank you for waking up. And I'm sorry, I'll probably be bothering you later today. No, no worries, buddy. Thanks, Ed. Have a good one.

Bye. Chase is awesome. We've been talking about trying to go to F1 together. He's a huge F1 fan. So that's the next plan. If you guys are looking for more information, by the way, on the latest FASB ruling, which is a pretty big deal for Bitcoin, you know we have James Lavish every Monday. Well, we had him Tuesday for Macro Monday on a Tuesday.

But he, as usual, does these amazing threads. And this is just an amazing thread that will very very very simply explain to you what this is what it means attached to actually numbers understanding why it matters long thread long thread so that will probably if you're looking for a way to follow up about this make a very very big difference in your understanding. And I have to say, guys, seriously, this to me is, I'll call it after BlackRock applying for an ETF, this is the second biggest news on the positive side that we've had this year. It's bigger than PayPal, Stablecoin. I think it's bigger than the Grayscale victory and Ripple victory,

or at least alongside that, because now we don't have to guess anymore. In 2025, we are going to very quickly understand how many companies really want to have Bitcoin on their balance sheet. Moving on to the next huge story of the day, obviously it's not this one, but 44.2% of Ethereum holders now in a loss. Is this the bottom? I don't know, but a lot of people holding Ethereum at a loss, but that's not going to matter because Cathie Wood's ARK Invest 21 shares apply for first spot Ethereum ETF, dubbed the ARK 21 shares Ethereum ETF. I mean, that's literally exactly who they are and what it's called. The application resembles those for spot Bitcoin ETFs that were recently delayed by the SEC.

Okay, so the SEC is getting absolutely pwned. If you guys have not been paying attention, they lost a ripple. They lost a grayscale. Everybody and their mother and their mother's cousin and their mother's cousin's sister, baby cousin, Tracy's nephew, whose niece went to school with your uncle, they're all applying for ETFs, which just means that the SEC is getting flooded and inundated with pressure and ETF applications. So we saw obviously a slew of Bitcoin spot ETF applications. We all know about that. Not going to talk about it anymore. Then we saw a number of Ethereum futures ETF applications, which should get approved because,

duh, they're exactly like the Bitcoin futures ETFs that have already been approved. So that should be very, very good for Ethereum in itself. But now we have Ethereum spot ETFs being applied for and in the lead, of course, Cathie Wood. What is is it what's the one i always just say how much kathy would would would chuck chuck of the kathy would chuck could chuck wood uh yeah she filed and then there you go boom eric belchunas was here last week arch just filed for a spot e3 etf the first one probably more incoming imminent and then i don't know, like four hours later, boom, VanEck, right? So I don't know if these guys get together, but ARK was first and VanEck came in four hours later. Imagine being four hours later, my God. Boom, boom, boom. All the ETF guys, boom. Another boom. How much Kathy

Wood could have Wood chuck chucked if a Kathy Chuck could Cathie Wood? Something like that. But anyways, this is amazing. This is different from the earlier ARK21 shares S1 filing because this will ultimately start that clock we are so used to following with spot Bitcoin filings. Guys, Gary can only say no for so long. I know this because somebody leaked me a secret video of him down in the Fifty Shades of Grey basement with his dominator, Elizabeth Warren. Safe word is security. You didn't hear that from me. And Obama and the Coke guy, they were down there with a hundred dollars a nine iron and a squirrel but guys the sec seriously they're gonna have to just start approving these things they can't say no there's absolutely no justification to say no to all of these things it's big now i want to get into a story that made my head spin i think it's so dumb and that means we have to talk about it. Genesis Global Capital files for over $600 million in unpaid DCG loans court docs. Genesis claims DCG owes

$500 million from one set of loans alongside another $4,550 Bitcoin owed from DCG International. Now, you might look at this and go yeah i mean this is like a normal obvious story like genesis they went bankrupt we've seen alameda doing these things they're trying to recoup their assets for the bankruptcy suing people but wait but wait genesis is owned right? CoinDesk, Genesis, Grayscale, all owned by Barry Silbert's DCG. So to give you a quick summary, what we have here, in fact, is a company suing themselves for not paying themselves. Do you guys get it? Do you guys get it yet? What's happening here? Do you? Yeah. So that's how bad this bear market is right now. They're suing themselves for loans they made to themselves and failed to repay to themselves. So yeah, basically there were

favorable terms. When DCG needed money, they got a loan from their own company with extremely favorable terms and then they changed the terms from their own company with extremely favorable terms, and then they changed the terms. Then Genesis went bankrupt. Now Genesis, which is probably Genesis' lawyers, are saying, we didn't agree to those terms, so we're suing you to get the money. So yes, Genesis is in Chapter 11. So of course, they're kind of being controlled by the lawyers, who we all know have made $700 million collectively this year in bankruptcies. But yes, there's a lot of problems here at DCG. The other obviously being Grayscale. Yes, Grayscale won. We talked about it. It's amazing news because Grayscale could get converted to an ETF and they beat the SEC. Guys, there's no chinese walls between these companies this is one big strange interconnected

incestual empire run by barry and the only thing left here obviously genesis went bankrupt coindesk is being sold for pennies on the dollar other companies being liquidated the only thing left for them that's making any money is GBTC. And that's because it's a closed end fund that nobody has been able to redeem for them that had a tremendous discount because the fees are really high. If Genesis gets approved, if Grayscale gets approved for an ETF, their fees go to almost zero. They lose all the money they're making, their cash cow, the hundreds of millions of dollars a quarter, and they are completely fucked. It's basically political theater that they're even trying to convert to an ETF, but they

know one's coming. So their best case is to be first and to have so much inflow that it accounts for the loss in fees that they're getting right now with GBTC, which we all know is predatory and a horrible product. Genesis is a shit show. Listen, when I talked to Kyle from 3AC and others, they say that these are the guys that are behind all the real contagion, all the problems that we have, that Grayscale was loaning to Genesis, and then Genesis would take loans on GBTC from BlockFi and Three Arrows Capital that they shouldn't have, but that GBTC was issued by the same company and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

So this DCG is the mess nobody's talking about as much because everybody seemingly is focused on Binance. And listen, I do want to bring up Binance before, I'm assuming Dan is coming, but before we get him. Binance, yes, is a bit of a shit show, but you guys may not have noticed. Binance, a few months ago, had 80% of crypto volume, 80% of the market. That is a monster number, monster number. So now what is it? It is 30%. If you guys didn't know, Binance's market share of all of crypto has gone from 80% all the way down to 30%. That is crazy. That market share is being picked up elsewhere. Obviously, volumes are down across the board in general, but it's my thinking that if this is going to be a train wreck, and I don't know if it is, if the DOJ is coming, we have a slow motion train wreck,

and that's better than a fast motion train wreck. Because if Binance is going to have trouble, we want them to be as small a part of the market as possible. We all know that. So if Binance continues to lose market share and goes down to 25, 20, 18, 15, I don't know, 10% of the market, if it actually collapses, which I don't necessarily think it will, it won't matter as much because it'll be such a smaller part of the market. So I think that is awesome. As Cloud Casino just said, four, four. Now guys, while I wait for Dan, we've never had him not show up, but I don't see him in the waiting room. So maybe something happened here. I want to go ahead and look at a couple of charts myself because I don't know if he's coming.

This is important because this is the dollar guys. And I pointed out this likely breakout here. You guys may remember a few weeks ago, I did a whole stream where I said, hey, I don't know what's going to happen here, but stonks the stock market. It feels really, really toppy. Really, really, really toppy. And that I was selling, I sold all the Meta, I had bought it a hundred bucks and all the Meta, I bought it 230 bucks. I sold all of that around 314 bucks. Now I don't know where Meta is today. Meta is trading 298. I didn't exactly kill it there, but that is now below the 50 MA, which we are seeing now, take a look at like Dow Jones lost the 50 MA dropping. We're seeing this across the board at the moment that a lot of things are dropping. And I think that's largely because of dollar strength. Dan is here. We failed to send him a link. We are dumb.

We apologize. I will give myself 14 lashes afterwards, but Dan, how are you today? Sorry about that. No worries. Two minutes late how are you today? Sorry about that. No worries. Two minutes late. We're here better late than never. Two minutes late is 15 minutes early in 2020. I think nobody's on time for anything. I literally, as you were just about to pop on, I was talking to Misha. I took a look at the dollar and man, this is looks like it's getting that breakout we've been talking about for a while here, right? Yeah, there was a moment we were real close to starting that weekly consolidation. And man, this looks like it's getting that breakout we've been talking about for a while here, right? Yeah, there was a moment we were real close to starting that weekly consolidation. And then Bulls said, nope, we're not done yet. And this is now a longer term. We go to the four month timeframe or something really longer term. It's now a higher low from there. And there's

still a lot of momentum. And so eventually we will need a clear, multiple weeks of pullback, multiple weeks of follow through if we're going to say, all right, this move is for real. But it's certainly very convincing at this point. Yeah. Do you mind pulling up a chart? I would love to see that for a month if you have it there. I know we caught you on the spot because you just came on. But I love your longer term time frames that you show because it gives a lot of perspective. And I don't think, especially in crypto, that people bother to zoom out that far. Yeah. So this is the four month and obviously every candle, four months to form. It takes a whole long time. But right off EMA 12, you go to the S&P 500 and that's what helped me be prepared for the bottom, the big long-term four month high

or low off EMA 12. And then we made our way back up near the all-time high. And so the question is now is the dollar... There's only three ways that this play out. We either head back to the recent high, which would be very bearish crypto metals equities. We set a lower high and confirm a downtrend, which would be best case for the bulls. Or we have a boring 2024 and we just tighten up and do that. Yeah. I think you stole my Bitcoin chart, which was basically this. When we dropped, I was like, maybe everyone wants down or up. I think maybe it's just chopping sideways. I mean, for Bitcoin uniquely, we have the whole halving cycle thing, but I don't

think it's going to be that much different either in equities for now. I think it just feels like we had this monster run up and now it's just consolidation time, whichever way it's going to go. If you show me those long term timeframes, and if you tell me that's an hourly chart, which I'm accustomed to as a day trader, I say we're going to look for a tightening range. And so that's the most common thing that happens in markets. And again, I made a Twitter post recently where I would not rule out the possibility where, you know, a halving takes us, even if it does go bullish, but doesn't break the all time high. I mean, it's possible we tighten up for a number of years in Bitcoin. And my message to everyone was just have a game plan for that. Just prepare for that possibility, because it makes me really nervous when I see so many people

certain that an all-time high is coming because of having. And I know the history, I know the cycle, but we only have a few instances. It's not like we have 50 years of data to show us this is going to happen. Yeah, I agree. I'm one of those, it's a foregone conclusion, mentally narrative people, but I am definitely well prepared that any time can be different. There's so many things that can happen for it to be different. And so many people are talking about the halving now that does give me pause. I actually, I happen to just be looking here at QQQ, obviously, which is a NASDAQ. Wow. It gaps down pretty big today. Yeah. Apple has been in free fall in the last two days. They had some news involving China

and I think they've got to be down 7% to 8% in two days, which is pretty wild for Apple. Apple doesn't usually see that kind of volatility. Yeah. The news was weird. I think it was that government officials might not be able to have iPhones or something. How many Chinese government or officials are there that this is problematic? So is it just the narrative that China is taking a look at Apple and there could be more things to come because that 2000 iPhones that might not be in use by Chinese officials seems like a drop in the bucket for Apple's iPhone sales? It's actually 60 million. I saw a tweet, whatever that's worth. 60 million government officials is the number because it goes down to the state level or whatever. I'm not familiar with the Chinese inner workings of the government,

but I think it's sizable. But like you said, it is pricing in, well, maybe China's going to do more against Apple. Yeah. So, I mean, we're seeing the dollar rage. If tech is dropping, now I want to take a look at Nvidia. That also had a massive drop but actually right to the 50ma i mean what are you looking at now as you that we've seen this sort of market open here uh i was looking if i if i were not here right now i would be longing nvba off of uh 448 uh this is this is that equilibrium this is that equilibrium where you know if we hold support here we're going to look for a bounce and a lower high. And then into next week, ideally, we get nice and tight, but the bulls have to prove it today. They're doing a decent job right now. The gap would fill up at 465. We're already up a

quick 2% from that low almost. So that's one of those gap down for buying scenarios right into a support level. But other than that, as I mentioned, at the end of last week, cannabis is definitely getting the buzz and the analytics. It started raging after you said that. Yeah. I'm convinced that the entire world was listening to you on the screen because it happened right afterwards. Yeah. I've been watching the sector for literally 13 years and the analytics the last week are showing us that there's a bunch of interest, you know, in terms of my YouTube videos, my tweet analytics, it's gaining a lot of interest. And so there's a lot still that has to play out from here. I'm looking for a temporary top to potentially be

set. Next, it's going to be, you know, how much do we retrace? Is the daily consolidation nice and healthy for a higher low? I mean, we haven't confirmed an uptrend yet. This 2X since you were on here last week? Yeah. Yeah. Just about, just under that. Some of these, I mean, some of the low cap names went 200% in a few days. I mean, these are very low cap and liquid, but- And this was all based on the news that you shared last week, which is basically that it could be put on a different schedule and basically decriminalized at a federal level, which has been proposed many times, right? But someone at the FDA effectively said that should be the case. Yeah, it was the HHS, Health and Human Services.

And there's no instance where something from the FDA or the HHS has been disregarded by the DEA. So probabilities, if the DEA still has to make the decision, but the probabilities increase significantly that they will reschedule it. There's still some dangling carrot of over the next six weeks, the Senate might make some moves to help with banking issues that have plagued the sector over the last couple of years. So it's a little bit of a shift in, obviously the price shifts the sentiment a bit. And then the news cycle shifts a little bit. They talk about it on CNBC. So it's just a longer, I mean, the volume is showing us that a long term, we talked about that last week, like, you know,

this volume looks for real. And so this volume is telling us that a long term bottom is in. Now it's just a question of, can we keep an uptrend going? Can we keep strength into really what I'm looking towards is next election, which is what, 13 months away and looking election season often benefits this sector. So a lot of proving still to be done. This psychedelic stocks are worth paying attention to. They're still low cap. One of them, the leader is CMPS, but the weekly timeframe for CMPS has been a year of tightening. And I've seen a bunch of stocks this year form a bottoming pattern like this. One of them being Chinese EV name, completely unrelated, but again, just weekly sideways into 200% gains. And so I'm watching CMPS psychedelic. Is this tightening forever

range going to break full? Bottom line is there's opportunity in cannabis. And I think, you know, psychedelics will get their run. California is going to vote to legalize, uh, psychedelics in the near term. So just keep an eye on these sectors. We know how much humans love new things, whether it's a law change, whether it's new technology, and that fuels the hype. And so keep an eye on it because there are trades and profit to be made on those hypes. So I'm definitely going to be talking about cannabis and psychedelic stocks a lot over the next year. Really interesting because we can talk about the dollar breaking out and we can show that there's some weakness in the stock market. But if you look close enough, there's sectors that are moving completely outside of sort of the macro narratives and

the cycles where you can still find... I mean, that was impressive because you literally talked about that. It was at the bottom and it launched within hours of us talking about it for two to three X. Yeah. There's a lot of excitement and hype. And like you mentioned, there is always a bull somewhere and there's always a bear somewhere. And cannabis was the bear. The market's been going up for the last six, eight months, whatever it's been, and cannabis has been going down. So it's just putting in a longer term bottom. And now it's just a question of, can we confirm a daily uptrend? Then can we confirm a weekly uptrend and taking it one step at a time from a technical perspective? So if the dollar closes kind of up where it is, makes that slightly higher high,

do you then basically start ignoring larger caps and not even trying to touch them, focusing on this small cap stuff? Do you kind of sit on the sidelines to wait? I mean, as a trader, what becomes your strategy if you see, because this is the dollar, everyone watches it, right? And so if it really does confirm this higher high, you've got to imagine that that's going to shake the market's confidence in some degree, or at least it's going to have everybody moving to the sidelines and waiting. Yeah, it's definitely focusing on this volatility while we have it trading in both directions and cannabis, but being, you know, open to the bear side of things right now, my IRA is all hedged up where I'm, I'm preparing for the possibility that, you know, we do see the bears

set weekly lower highs, really what it is for the S and P 500 and the NASDAQ in the next couple of weeks is do we confirm this weekly downtrend? And if that happens again, then long-term timeframe, three month chart, then we go for our equilibrium and tightening range. And so I am definitely open to the bears. Really the next week or two is going to significantly shift the probabilities for me as to how we end the year. And I'm much more open to bear trades now that we've seen this past week and this Apple and NVDA pullback. And we just talked about NVDA, but even if we do bounce from here, I am going to be scouting a daily lower high short entry for the possibility that this tightening range does break

bear into longer term consolidation. Yeah. My base case right now is that the top is in for a while. We'll see for stocks, like for S&P QQQ. I think we had our run. And now, like you said, maybe we consolidate for a long time and then see what happens when it's election season. I would love to be wrong. I own plenty of stock. I have an IRA just like everyone else, but I don't know. There is still one route that can save it. I mean, the NASDAQ is a possible monthly cup and handle. So I am open to both paths still. And I think through September, by the end of September, we're going to know significantly which has a higher probability, long-term tightening range or monthly cup and handle.

And hopefully over the next few weeks, we'll continue to check in on this and help shape those probabilities. Because really right now I'm 50-50. I am open to both paths. Yeah. I don't think anyone's ever delivered more alpha in like a 10 to 11 minute stretch than you managed to come in here and do. That was incredible. Actual names of psychedelics and weed stocks. You gave it to us last week. Absolutely incredible. Is there anything else, any other hints we might be looking for this week or coming up before? Actually, next week, I'm not sure I'm going to be on. I'm going to be in Singapore. It'll be 9 p.m. I'm still trying, though, but we might be taking a week off. But any other last thoughts here? Just for if you're interested in cannabis, just wait for daily consolidation.

You know, if you want the risk to reward to be in your favor, we're still hanging on, you know, we're still feeling some of that euphoria, but we know daily consolidation will be inevitable. We know it's an easy 20% pullback when that happens. So just establish your game plan in advance and wait for consolidation to look for long swing entries, if that is your interest. I love it, man. Thank you so much, as always, for joining.

Everybody, once again, follow him on Twitter. It's down below. Check out his YouTube channel. You might have missed a 200% gain on something if you weren't paying attention because I didn't actually buy any last week. I got busy and forgot, and then he just reminded us and I thought, that was really dumb. I should have probably traded that. Thank you, man. As always, always a pleasure. Everybody check him out. Thanks, Dan. Thanks, Scott. See you. Awesome, man. We haven't had someone... We have a lot of people come on, but generally they can't go, oh, see, I told you so last week. And it's outside of crypto and things are up to 200 or 300%.

So, guys, I would pay a lot of attention. To summarize from everything today, obviously, SEC is under just massive pressure right now. These accounting rules to the SEC, ETFs to the SEC, futures ETFs, Bitcoin spot ETFs, losing to Grayscale, losing to Ripple. The Gary Gensler days are slowly getting behind us. You guys have to realize that we have all this huge news. I mean, huge, huge good news, and it's not affecting the market at all. And people get very frustrated. Why didn't we pump? It doesn't matter. Everybody hates Bitcoin. Good news, we should be at 50,000. No, we're in this part of the cycle most likely. And the things we're

seeing right now in a year, we'll go back and be like, oh yeah, they announced that a year ago. That was huge news. Companies are starting to buy Bitcoin. We'll be like, oh, we knew about that in 2023. These are the narratives that will be driving the next bull market whenever it comes. So even if price does not move, it raises the fair value of all of these assets and what Bitcoin should be worth in the future. Good time to remind you, don't capitulate because time has passed or because you're bored. This is not the time to

leave. We are getting tons of good news. Guys, that's all I've got. I will see you tomorrow with Nathaniel Whittemore, NLW, reviewing the top five stories of the week. Peace. Let's go.