The Wolf Of All Streets - BIG WINS for Bitcoin: Strategic Reserve & Crypto Summit: SO WHY IS IT CRASHING? | Macro Monday

Episode Date: March 10, 2025

Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and James Lavish as we break down what's happening in macro and crypto! Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1  James Lavish: https://twitter.com/jameslavish  Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11  ►► 🔥 LBANK Exchange - No KYC Required! Claim up to 50% trading bonus! Join today & get rewarded! Start trading to claim up to 50% in trading bonuses!! 👉https://www.lbank.com/activity/ScottMelker-Cashback?icode=4M3HD  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://archpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

The crypto industry scored some massive wins last week, including, of course, the strategic Bitcoin Reserve and digital asset stockpile and a meeting of the greatest minds in crypto at the White House. So why are prices once again dropping? The answer is probably macro and because of a miss on expectations because the crypto industry believes that the entire universe revolves around us and anytime we're slightly disappointed, we cry like babies and sell our Bitcoin. But otherwise, it probably is largely what's happening with tariffs, uncertainty in markets,

which we know that they hate. Good news is it's Macro Monday and we haven't had a chance to discuss any of this yet. So we've got Mike, Dave and James to unpack all of it. Can't wait to have this conversation. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go.

Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go.

Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. What is up everybody? I'm Scott Melchor also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. Gonna go ahead and bring on Dave and Mike James having a slight camera issue right now. Before we dig into everything happening with Bitcoin, which is currently trading at a low low price, I would say of $83,100.

Obviously, all coins suffering we're down about you know, 10% plus across the board on crypto. This is not native to crypto right now. Right, Mike? I mean, we've got just headlines across the board stocks hit as economic fear, smurf flight to bonds, whoo bonds, Mike, you mean, we've got just headlines across the board. Stocks hit as economic fear, smear flight to bonds. Bonds, Mike, you got to be loving that. Trump says US economy faces transition, avoids recession call to just plow through these.

Treasuries gain as Trump transition, talk fuels recession angst, crypto equity slide in pre-market after Bitcoin falls to 80. Do you guys get the idea yet? And of course, Bitcoin's targeting 70K apparently because of Japanese bond yield struggles. We don't have any other problems.

It's gonna be the Japan carry trader bond yield struggles we have to talk about for Bitcoin. But maybe you can unpack the morning meeting and what the hell is happening in the macro right now. Well, I wanna start with the good news in crypto and that is Dogecoin is only 26 billion. That's down 50% from where it was just at the end of last year. It only has another 26 billion to go before I think we see a bottom in cryptos,

unfortunately, maybe 25 billion. But so come on, let's talk about fun stuff here. It's just that's the silliness of this space. There's still it's it struck me, you know, when we all tilted towards the savior, Mr. Trump, getting elected. Yeah, that was a major pivot. Give him credit for that. But then the Milani coin and Trump points,

those are signals of pretty significant peaks and assets that I look at. It's very similar to 1929 stock market. But back to our morning meeting, Anna Wong came on. The number did not come out as weak as she expected. But she says all the data is tilting that way, which is what the market's really looking at. It has to look forward to that hangover of weakening government jobs and even states

and related entities. Doge layoffs a big punt, push on payrolls numbers. She says the key thing she's pointed out is the scale of the trade war now is about three to four times what it was during the first trade war China's exports of sort that's all transitory. I published on that this morning She's looking at PMIs and manufacturing should show a drag in economic activity and her quote. She's looking for food prices She's wondering food prices are gonna go higher or lower in my space. I am today Typically, they're still heading lower in terms of the macro ones that

trade in most indices like corn, soybeans and wheat. Gina Martin Adams remains quite bearish. Give her credit. She was the bull for years and she says, I'm going to sign for global stocks. US was the worst performing stock market last week, which is very similar to 2022. Key things that she pointed out, tariffs and cost of goods sold. U.S. multinationals will probably have to eat the bulk of those. These are things we talked about for a while. Cyclical indicators are turned down for earnings at the end of the year. Biggest headwind is expectations remain far too high. So she's still quite bearish.

Iyer Jersey, I thought, made a good point. He's our chief interest rate strategist. That markets are more reliant on risk assets, and that's a key thing. If we do what we're doing this morning, we stay below that 200 day moving average in S&P 500 everything will tilt that way. Bitcoin's right at it. Ethereum is right at that key support. We all know that traders are supposed to buy it's easy it's free not you know you've been able to do that no problem but once we tilt lower it's a problem and I didn't say if it went. Audrey Chill, Friedman, our FX strategist says weaker dollars gain momentum and that's a key thing I want to bring out that Gina taught me years ago.

All correlations have gone to one that the dollars completely runs on the back of the US stock market at least since 2011. Stock markets go down, dollars going down, stock market goes up, dollar goes up. I mean it's all related. Honey, they tell us it's the opposite, don't they? Isn't the weaker dollar supposed to be bullish for risked assets? Isn't that what Twitter tells us?

Well, what drives it? What drives it? That's kind of secondary, maybe second derivative, but what drives a dollar either way is US stock market, US assets. And that's been the case for years and forever. But that's kind of from the whole space. For me, from the macro, good news is

Crude Oil's had good support. Everybody's bearish, which makes me feel lonely. I love being lonely when I have views. And I'm still bearish, but it's stuck at 67, pretty good support. Now, just to sign with this, I think Bitcoin peak is enduring at 100 grand. It's part of that reason that gold's kicking in.

ETF inflows are kicking straight up. Yes, while gold's taking downward and there's potential for some major reversion in these markets just getting started. But as a day trade right now at 200 day moving averages, traders are probably, well, they're not this morning, these are levels of typically we've attracted support. Yeah, the dollar down, bonds up, gold up Bitcoin.

The funny part is, you know, I listened to Mike talk through all this, and I think Gina Martin, great. And I think there's all sorts of really good nuggets in there. The interesting point, the sentence in there that matters is all of the things that you talked about, every single one of them impacts earnings. So if you look at what are earnings, earnings are the cash flows that companies

that you invest in can attract. In that situation, the more that that is true, and I believe that that is true, the more liquidity you're going to see pushed into this market lest something break. And so the divergence is coming. Yeah, I feel like now I'm lonely. So if you remember Game of Thrones, when the first people started saying winter is coming in season one, I feel like I'm in season one saying divergence is coming. All of the signs,

all the things that are lining up matter. That's why I wrote this above me. Right now, markets are being driven by liquidity. Bitcoin doesn't have the beta that Mike used to talk about. I noticed he doesn't talk about three times beta anymore because it doesn't. Actually, Nvidia's beta has been higher than Bitcoin and Nvidia's beta has been higher than Bitcoin. And Nvidia's volatility has been higher than Bitcoin. It's the one that drove the stock market up and it's the one that's leading it down right now. So you can't go there.

But now why? Why? Because Nvidia is a hype asset that may or may not grow into the AI revolution, which is real, will be enduring, is gonna be a sea change but the question of how much money can you actually make from it and where that will there be competition and what will happen is what's driving people crazy

because like what happened in 2000 you know in 2001 with the internet bubble which is incredible I'm actually seeing stories in the Wall Street Journal about this right now you know comparing what's going on now to the internet bubble There are lots of things that that could teach us and one of the things that teaches us is As Mike says a lot of the crap is gonna go to zero. That's true Question is what's the crap and that's what needs to be determined the other lesson that we learned from the internet bubble is things that have real value that are going to persist and And do well are gonna build generational wealth if you buy.

And people learn that from markets. So I made a point this afternoon, which is in the world of equities in the internet bubble, Amazon made generational wealth if you DCA during the entire time. But most of the- Nobody did, because they thought it was a book company. That's right. That's right.

Well, no, some people did, and I remember arguing with those people, and those people were right, and I was wrong, and okay, great. But you try, as humans, we like to learn from our mistakes. The other people who made absolute shit tons back up the truck sorts of money to the point where the industry itself grew, the whole industry, were a V-box because they all realized what was going on and they just put their heads down and they invested. They put all their chips on who they thought would win. And guess what?

Whether it was Google or PayPal or you know the list, they all did phenomenally, phenomenally well. Now, what's the difference in crypto and equities? Well, in crypto, yeah, there are VCs, but pretty much everything is immediately liquid and available to the public. None of the stuff that really did well outside of Amazon and a few others did really well. But the ones that did do really well were all available to VCs and they were churning and they were building and they were and whatever. So, you know,

I don't know if Solana is the Google of platforms. I don't know if Sui is or Aptos is or Ethereum still is. But to be said, a couple of other points and I know there's a long winded rant. First, I am I really think it's important to consider Bitcoin very differently than Ethereum and all the other crap that I was just talking about Bitcoin has more of a tailwind today than it has at any point in my lifetime and When you think and the point the second line that I have above me liquidity in the short term adoption in the long term Remember Bitcoin is not an asset where a hundred thousand is even a meaningful number the first meaningful number for Bitcoin

Real meaningful number is roughly somewhere around a million or 1.1 million right now, which is Parity with gold so the quest in right now, which is parity with gold. So the quest right now, it effectively is trading like there's no increase in adoption metrics, no more likelihood of that. And when the president of the United States has an executive order that effectively says Bitcoin is a strategic asset,

it does matter for long-term adoption. You need to understand the people that will be driving the long term adoption really, and it pisses the hell out of the crypto community. But it's people that are, you know, green eye shade types, the pension consultants, the internal fund managers at state pension plans, the RIAs who look older than me, who have more gray hair or less hair. And people are all sitting here saying, hey, wait a minute, we got the White House. And we see the price dropping.

It's like, what does that mean? Well, okay, they'll wait. And when the price starts, is stable or is rising, then they say they need to get in. I want James to unpack what he's seeing because you run a fund with Bitcoin, you know this and this is a big deal. That's the point when I say that is talk about adoption.

The last point about Ethereum is Ethereum is priced at its market cap like it's already succeeded in a market. I had an internet conversation that I slammed shut with someone over the weekend. I was talking about Solana versus Ethereum and they said, Ethereum has so much more TVL, total value locked. And the question I asked them, I said, Okay, what should the ratio of the market cap of a token be to its total value locked? My guess is market cap should be a fraction of total value lock because it's all the profit that you can actually make. Of course, Ethereum's total value lock is one fifth of its market cap. So you can't look at things like total value lock to justify a market cap. But Ethereum of more than a 90% fall from here would effectively get you. What you can look at is the developers and you can look at

that's right. Multiple X's of that's right. You absolutely can. I'm not bearish. A theorem. I still. Yes, it's a much lower percentage of my portfolio. But what you can look at is what's the total addressable

market for layer ones in a world where we want to revolutionize and should revolutionize all of the plumbing underneath multiple multi-trillion dollar markets. And that's why Ethereum's market cap is stubbornly high. That's why the market cap of crypto is actually arguably in aggregate low. But we don't know who the winners are. And that's what. But the Bitcoin point, I I think is really important because what

happened on Friday was quite frankly, exactly what people like James and I and I don't want to put words in your mouth, James, if you had told me, what did I want to get said, that literally is what I would have wanted to have been said. We're gonna unpack that too. Go ahead, James. God, there's so much to unpack. Let's start way, way way up at the top back with what Mike was talking about in the economy. You know, I mean, first of all, the market hates uncertainty. Simple as that. We have no idea what is going to come down the pipe with tariffs. We don't know exactly how the government firings are going to impact the economy. That was not in the numbers that came out on Friday with the unemployment. So that's an important distinction here to make that that number, that Friday number wasn't great and didn't even include the government firings. So and now you've got, you know,

you've got the new Treasury Secretary, Besant, coming out and saying, like, there's gonna be short-term pain. We expect this. And it's okay. And so, and they're calling it a period of transition, right? And so, why are they doing that? Well, you can look at it from, politically, a lot of different angles, but it's pretty simple. Trump wants lower interest rates, right?

He knows two things. He knows that the Fed is not going to listen to what his demands. We, they've, you know, Powell has already come out and said that. He's already come out and, and his stance has, has been diametrically opposed to whatever Trump says for, for weeks. And so he knows that part. And then he also knows that the Fed can't even control the long end of the curve. Like that's not, the Fed can't control that. What controls that is the economy and bond traders, their take on the economy and their analysis

on the economy, where it's going. Are there gonna be too many bonds that are going to be issued in the future, which means that there's going to be pressure on interest rates higher for the longer end of the curve? Or is there going to be inflation pressure, which means that there's pressure on the long end of the curve for rates to go higher? That's what we saw. But in the last few weeks, we've seen the long end of the curve,

starting at the 10-year. Mike, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it's come down from 480 at the beginning of the year down to 420 or so, and now it's kind of bumping around 425, right? So that's a big move. And this is what they want. This is what, Trump wants lower rates.

So how can he do that and politically still keep his base motivated and, and not trip up the midterms to get it over with? They want to get this over with. They go. Besant needs to re, he, they, these guys need to, they need to reprice $10 trillion worth of bonds this year. $10 trillion. And so where are they going to do that? The question is, are they going to keep doing T-bills and keep kicking the can down the road, which is what they've been doing. As much as, as much noise that we heard out of that camp last fall, and as much grief Besson gave Yellen, for pretty good reason, I wrote about this, about not moving out on the curve. He can't move out on the curve yet. The rates are still too high. So they want rates lower. And that will be good for the economy long term, but there's going to be pain in the short term. And so, you know, we've got to, look, the reality is, Mike, Mike has been right that we, the market's

gotten ahead of itself. But now let's talk about Bitcoin and the risk assets. Because the reality is that, that if you look at rates, if you look at liquidity, if you look at collateral, if you look at all of the M2 supply, we bottomed out in liquidity about 3 months ago, late last year, early this year. So somewhere around there is when we bottomed out. And we're rising now. But Bitcoin has been a leading risk indicator for a long time. I know that everybody who believes in Bitcoin, including me, believes that this is long term, not the way that this asset should be treated.

However, you have to recognize with the market, how the market looks at it. The market looks at it as a risk asset right now. That's reality. There's nothing we can do about that except keep adoption going. And so the reality is that this lags the market, Bitcoin lags the market by about three months. And so it's going to continue to lag until we have that diversion that that Dave talked about. And we're not there yet. So what we're seeing is that we've seen liquidity contract toward right into the end of the year. And now we're seeing it begin to expand again, and Bitcoin's behind it. It's behind it by three months, but it's ahead of the others. So we had a drawdown of about, again, Mike, correct me if I'm wrong, about 8% from the high of the S&P, somewhere around there. Yeah, it has any 10% yet. Yeah, into Friday. And now you're having a, this is not capitulation. We're bouncing off that.

Yeah, it's 7.76 on SPY, which is actually the tradable asset that reflects that, which by the way, I had the chart up because if you are looking for a technical bounce on something, you've got the 200 ma holding a support and you're just testing the July 24 highs, which was a high for, you know, a good few months. So maybe, maybe we're in the overblown fear time for a bounce phase. Yeah, let's talk about the land. Let me land the plane on this part though on Bitcoin is that, look, Bitcoin still has, and I agree with Dave, more tailwinds, structural tailwinds than it's ever had that I know of. You have an administration here that has adopted this as a strategic

reserve. Now, why did it sell off? I've had so many questions about this. And it wasn't just buy the rumor, sell the news, although traders love that. It was kind of poised perfectly for this, where Trump came out, he announces a reserve, he announced they're not going to sell any, but then he also announced that we're not going to buy any either. And so that was priced in. When you're a trader and you're looking for an event, like this is an event-driven situation for many hedge funds and many traders, meaning that they look at the price of the asset that they're, they're trading, the security they're trading, whatever it is, and they, and they price in the upside and a probability around that, right? So if, if you have an asset that's trading at 100,000 and if it, if the event means

that it would trade to 200,000, if the event happens, right, then you attach a probability. If it's a 50-50 probability on that event happening, then it should be trading around 150,000. Everybody get that math? 100,000, $100,000 gain, 50% probability of that 100,000 gain, that's $50,000, that's $150,000, where the assets should be trading, right? Well, just think about in those terms, Bitcoin got ahead of itself. It was staying high, even though that liquidity had been drained from the system, it was staying up there because of this event probability

and because of all the tailwinds. Well, the event was good, but it didn't give the traders and these investors what they wanted for that full event, probability for that full event to be priced in. So it sold off. That's exactly what happened. It's still astounding to me, though, that you get a strategic Bitcoin reserve and $5,000 drop in less than 30 minutes. Listen, I'm not surprised, as you said, but it was very quickly clarified that there is a plan or a path to acquiring more Bitcoin. Yeah, it's just not the print money and do it as a budget item.

Yeah, yeah, it's got to be it's got to be ways. It's a concession. It's a concession. Yeah, we'll buy some but it has to be budget neutral. Why? Because because this administration does not want to be accused of using US tax dollars to drive up an asset that will make a bunch of crypto bros rich. And that actually makes sense. Reasonable. Nobody wants to add to the debt. No Bitcoiners should rationally want to add to the debt.

That's the irony of all of this is that Bitcoin sells off from a bunch of Bitcoiners selling their Bitcoin because we're not going to buy it. but anyone who's a true Bitcoiner wants the debt to come down and wouldn't want that to happen anyways. But it is important that Treasury Secretary of the Senate went on TV and a road show completely the next day saying we are exploring opportunities to find budget neutral ways to add Bitcoin. You said the first thing we need to do is stop selling.

The second thing we need to do is prioritize this asset. The third thing we need to do is find ways to buy it. The quotes were amazing. Right? So people just need to chill. Yeah. It's also, if you're a trader and you're an investor, think about it. If you're the US government saying, hey, we've got a Bitcoin reserve, we're going to go buy a million Bitcoin, what the hell would Bitcoin do? It would rip. Well, that's always made Dave always makes the point you're not going to front run yourself, right? Obviously, and the game is actually a very good solution to that. I like to jump in the game theory here, obviously, by the way, if you look at the math, I mean, first of all, it was a little bit eye opening that the executive order said we need to do an

audit, effectively them admitting that they have no idea what we own or where it is, which has been a lot of conjecture about that. But there's also conjecture the United States government and marshals have sold a bunch in the past few months. So we need to get the number of what we own high end 200,000 low end if Bitfinex gets returned, which it should maybe 100,000 China owns 190,000 ish Bitcoin, you could tell me that the United States is going to let China own more Bitcoin than the United States when we've added it as a, or deemed as a future Bitcoin reserve asset? I don't think so. Go ahead,

Mike. So we're talking about one of the biggest, from history, from the future, we're going to look back at this as one of the biggest, most significant buy the rumor, sell the facts situations I've ever heard of. And so first let So first let's debunk some of the silliness that we just heard. Some of it from Dave that Bitcoin is going to put out the same value as gold. That's very silly because I have gold in my body, can't do that with Bitcoin. And I've pointed out very clearly six months ago and maybe even before when Bitcoin ETFs reached parity versus gold ETFs on a risk adjusted basis.

That was probably near the peak. Near the peak right now, we have Bitcoin ETFs running around 115 billion and gold ETFs pushing near 250. See a bull market there, gold ETFs are heading higher. We said two months outflows in Bitcoin ETFs. Trade's over. Gentlemen, the trade is over.

I'm just, you're not someone to blame, blame McGlone, particularly if the stock market goes down. And that's where I'm going to point out The silliness of beta anybody who runs a risk management position Which Dave has and I have and knows if they have anything in cryptos on that position They've gone down a lot more than beta right because beta has gone down and they're gonna continue to go down in my view Yes, we're gonna get bounces, but it's just getting started the significance What happened with this new administration is shocking. Remember, rich people didn't vote for Trump.

I'm from that part of the world where 55% of the country, our wage earners, those are people who vote for Trump. They don't really care about the stock market as much, but they do care about deflation. And when their gas price goes down to two bucks, Trump can say he helped do that. That's gonna happen.

It's just a matter of time, particularly if the stock market goes down. To me, that's the key thing that's kicking in here now, and with bonds, and what's going to happen with bonds? If you get the stock market to go down, there's only one force to get the Fed to ease. Powell said on Friday, everything's fine. He's not going to ease until the stock market goes down and makes him. This is something we talked about a year ago, and he decided to ease too early.

That's when we'd be able to balloon the deficit out to the, not balloon it, to the long end of the curve. So let's point out that part of mine. I still think the best performing assets this year will be US Treasury long bonds. You want some of the blame? Blame me, because I just see it happening. I've seen it happen in 1999. Same thing in 2007.

Each time I was early, this is just more extreme. So this morning I just did a little analysis versus Canada. In tenu notes, Canada is one-tenth the size of US, basically. Bond market, economy, inflation, population, everything. Yet their TenuNote yields less than 3%, even though their debt to GDP is higher than the US. Then I look over at the... One thing we can do versus that TSX and S&P, we can go back

almost 100 years. For about 90 years of that, we're stuck near the same level. Then all of a sudden, US breaks out higher. And US reals right now are about 130 basis points above Canada. I think they're going to just drop to 3%. We just need a trigger, maybe staying below that 200-day moving average in Bitcoin first, because Bitcoin leaves everything. And let's just not underestimate what we have in terms of the government's not trying to

pick winners in cryptos. If they at least followed an index, and this could do for them, now they they're picking winners and there's 12 million of them. Bitcoin's just one. I just point out, yes, this is a form of very bullish crypto person. I look at this space now as I hear it from crypto people all the time, particularly on crypto town hall on Friday. I'm glad you didn't ask me to speak because I listened to that. I'm like, oh, this is one of the most extreme things. I've heard this stuff in 99. I heard it in 08. And it's here for everybody saying, yes, praise the Lord, a place of the crypto gods. I say pass the ammunition. But to be fair, to be fair, on Friday, we were discussing the strategic Bitcoin Reserve

announcement that happened just hours before. Exactly. Even in a vacuum, you have to admit that's a pretty fundamentally important event. It was. Regardless of what happens to price. It was. On the way up, and now we got it. It's not a Bitcoin reserve. Now, it's a strategic crypto reserve. And how much of that is he? No, it's not. Okay. So he's buying Bitcoin, right? So how much of that? The digital asset stockpile was throwing scraps to the dogs of the industry. Okay.

It happened to give him donations. There's no, the digital asset stop-hile will never be added to, it's a rounding error for the market cap of these assets. It's nothing compared to the amount of Bitcoin that they hold. That was a pull-up move to be fair. It's likely to be sold off to buy Bitcoin

in the long run. That's one of the budget neutral strategies is actually dump the Solana and Ethereum and stable coins that are sitting there and buy. So, I'll point out the key thing I pointed out last year. We're talking about this whole crypto space is leverage beta. Beta is going down.

Leverage beta is going to go down a lot more and it's going to continue to go down. Sure, it will see bounces, but what stops it? We got to get through this period of doge is just getting started, the tariffs are getting started and the number one thing from those tariffs is corporate profits. We'll go down. Who wants to go? I'd love to respond. I mean, I honestly, I hate to say it, but you know, there's a lot of Peter Schiff and what you just said, and you know, he finally has now his own golden body. All I would phrase the people who had seashells

Saying yeah, this new gold thing is Feel very very similar in a digital world There is a very similar to seashells in in cryptos. They're 12.4 million unlimited supply seashells have an unlimited supply No, no, we're let's at least agree to divide Bitcoin from the rest of crypto because there there is there is definite truth Buried within the silliness of that last comment. It's not silly. Just look at it Why is why is Bitcoin down because everything else is down? It's just it has a much higher correlation to all the other cryptos including those coin than it does to beta. It's a fact Okay, you can tell me facts will change in the future.

Correlation versus causation, dude. Exactly, you're telling me it's gonna change. I'm just pointing out it's not gonna change. I don't think that Bitcoin is correlated to those assets. I think those assets are correlated to Bitcoin. There's a lot of people who are told by ETF producers and ETF providers to buy Bitcoin above 100 grand, now they're at 82. They're starting to get stopped out. What stops that?

Yeah, those outflows are proof of that. Well, most of the outflows were based on the collapse of the futures premium, which if you look at the futures premium, it's actually kind of fascinating. Futures open interest has collapsed. Yeah. But there's reason. Total interest. I mean, the specs are getting out. Specs are getting out of futures. That's the arm guys. OK. You can't. Unfortunately, this is like trying to fight circular arguments.

So let's let's pick one at a time. Seriously, because this administration is a massive sea chain things which are going to change crypto valuation. I've been saying both. Number one, things that have no utility or no value are not going to necessarily be purchased. And I think that's the reason why we're not going to be able to do that. And I think that's the reason why we're not going to be able to do that.

And I think that's the reason why we're not going to be able to do that. And I think that's the reason why we're not going to be able to do that. And I think that's the reason why we're not going to be able to do that. And I think that's the reason why we're not going to be able to do that. And I think that's the reason why we're not going to be able to do that. And I think that's the reason why we're not going to be able to do that. And I think that's the reason why we're not going to be able to do that. And I think that's the reason why we're not going to be able to do that. And I think that's the reason why we're not going to be able to do that. And I think that's the reason why we're not going to be able to do that. And I think that's the reason why we're not going to be able to do that. And I think that's the reason why we're not going to change crypto evaluation. I've been saying both. Number one, things that have

no utility or no value are not going to necessarily be prioritized. The reason memes were prioritized was because frankly you couldn't build anything because according to Gensler's view of the Howey test, if your efforts led to increased value, you couldn't issue it in the United States. So U.S. investors couldn't touch it. That is changing. It is clearly changing. All the cases have been lost. So builders no longer need to do that. The people in the meme worlds haven't figured this out yet, but they will, because, frankly, memes are memes. You know, honestly, Elizabeth Warren isn't wrong about that. You know, the beanie baby notion. I've been saying the beanie baby analogy for years beanie baby or Birkin bag when you're in the memes Is doge the the one Birkin bag out of all the memes? Maybe

Is 26 billion a reasonable price for it who the hell knows it could be higher could be lower I don't know I don't have any particular viewpoint if you said the exact same thing about all the others I would say 99 point some number of nine percent of those 11 million memes are going to be worth nothing just like pets.com was the path held for internet stocks that were worth nothing but there were thousands there was 14,000 of them now admittedly it either you couldn't just go on pump.fun and create a crypto, right. But if you look at the number of

coins on coin market cap, it compares quite favorably actually lower than the number of internet stocks that were created in the OTC market back then. So it's actually very, very, very analogous. So we could talk about that. But let's focus right in on Bitcoin versus gold, because that's where I think you're you're absolutely off the rails. Gold, some percentage of gold is its monetary value. I think it's like around 80%. And that's what I think Bitcoin gets Parry Pasew with. If you understand that platinum is 30 times more rare than gold, that for most of

our lifetimes, platinum was more expensive than gold, and it's now one third the price of gold. That is like arguing, you know, there are people who probably said, well, platinum could never get cheaper than gold. And then of course it did. It actually peaked at one fourth the price of gold at one point, you know, 20 years ago or 25 years ago. But platinum is rarer, right?

And it's used in jewelry. Platinum and palladium both have been dramatically higher than they are. Why aren't they as high? Well, palladium went crazy because of its need in catalytic converters. But we have these things called electric cars. And electric cars don't need catalytic converters. And so the demands are decreasing. And so people aren't putting a premium on it as well, as well as new production came online. Because like all the other commodities that you talk about that I agree with you on, we have the ability because of the elasticity

of price to demand and supply, we have the ability to get more. Bitcoin, gold, we have the ability to potentially to get more. We have an asteroid coming close to the earth, right? At some point, don't you... It's not that good. It's great. No, no. I mean, the point is, is gold is a commodity that we might very well be able to get a lot more. You won't get more Bitcoin. Do I really care about that? No, but traders might, if we ever get to that at some point 20, 30 years from now. The issue is the monetary component of

gold. Does gold make sense as a monetary component? Remember something, 30 years from now. The issue is the monetary component of gold. Does gold make sense as a monetary component? Remember something, and this is important, in 1971 gold effectively was 100% of monetary aggregates. Today it's somewhere less than 7%. So there's room for a lot of things here. So you can talk about it's in your body, but the truth is that's the sole question and you're right there are people out there who will come to bitcoin kicking and screaming because they're saying well i can't see it and touch it but these are the same people who have no problem doing everything virtually and on the internet using their phone and using you swipe cards to buy stuff just understand virtual assets can have value if you say they can't they can't if they can they can it's a binary

That binary replicates out over seven million billion people and we'll see Whether it gets dominant. My point is with it as a strategic reserve asset More people are going to be convinced that it can be that's the issue So you can say what you want about what came out. Traders were looking for how much will America buy? Investors were looking for what's the signaling to other investors? And that's the difference. And, you know, look, you could disagree. What I'm talking about is a much lower time preference.

I have no leverage in my portfolio. I sleep like a baby because I have no leverage. Were I leveraged, I'd be terrified, right? You know, I'd have that clutching fear that happens. By the way, the more I feel that clutching fear, the more I know we're closer to a bottom. You know, whether it seems like everyone in the crypto world thinks 70 or Tom Lee thinks 60 is in the cards. I think I don't care. I just know that the back half of this year, we will have the regulations so such that Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, everyone on Wall Street can start offering Bitcoin. We're seeing every day, new announcements of banks who can start offering Bitcoin.

And there it is. That's the most important part that people aren't talking about. Yeah, we do have a strategic reserve and it is different than the, you know, the stockpile, Mike, I agree with, with Dave, you have been right about the, you know, the eventuality of a mean reversion of the, of the stock market. It's, it's, it's, it's true. And so the liquidity didn't catch up quickly enough, but it is expanding. That's that's something you have to realize. And, you know, structurally, I'm with Dave where I have I have a very long term view. I mean, I have an investment firm that focuses on Bitcoin and Bitcoin companies, and we're very excited. I mean, I'm seeing things that that are that are very excited. I mean, I'm seeing things that will give us great opportunity in the near and long term future. And the utility of Bitcoin is not just that it's a digital meme. That's just incorrect. It really does have value. Will it

value. Will it eclipse gold in this cycle? I don't think so. Will it eclipse gold eventually? 100%. I mean 99.9% it will eventually eclipse the assets of gold. And why is that? It will demonetize it. Why is that? Because it is better at everything that gold does except for wearing it as jewelry. That's the only thing you can't do with Bitcoin. But you can walk across the border with it. You can walk across the border and actually you're not even carrying it. You can also do that with tether. Do you remember that brief moment when Ledger was selling a necklace that had a ledger on it and people went absolutely nuts because you could literally wear your Bitcoin? You can Mike, but if you're storing your money in tether,

then it's debasing every single day. USDC, well, yeah, but you're not having, drop 30% from the peak in volatility. So let's look at the difference here. I'm glad we went there because we're proving right now, Bitcoin is leveraged beta. It's a very highly risk, highly volatile asset. It's in the mainstream now, great.

You know, four or five years ago, six years ago, one of us wrote about it was really much just a niche product. Now it's mainstream, highly volatile acid. It's in the mainstream now, great. Four or five years ago, six years ago, one of us wrote about it was really much just a niche product. Now it's mainstream, everybody loves it, even our presidents all invested, great, love it. So, it's just a classic sales signal. Now look at the whole space. It's not, the whole space is very, very much leverage beta.

And to me, this is 1929, 1999-ish as far as extreme asset valuations that just are on the back of the US stock market being the most expensive industry. Maybe it's gonna start going down. That's all I'm just pointing out. And it's Trump administration who probably not saying it, but they know if they get that equity market to go down,

they're getting yields to go down, they're getting inflation to go down, they'll be able to sell deficit debt a lot higher and get it done before the midterms. This is a trade that's just getting started. When you go to a cocktail party, how many people you know, own Bitcoin at that cocktail party? Well, it depends on what the age. If they're, if they're under 40, almost all of them. If they're over 40, there you have the boomerang.

There's very few people who actually own it. That's the incredible part. All this talk, all this, there is so, there has been so much just misinformation and disinformation in the media, the mainstream media about Bitcoin versus all the other cryptocurrencies that people still do not understand the difference. I still get this answer when I ask people at, you know, friends and people around me that are not in the space, which look, we're in a bubble here. We talk about this stuff every single day. But the reality is, when I ask people, do you own Bitcoin? They say, yeah, I own the Ethereum one. They still don't understand. They still don't get it. It's not that they're dumb. It's that they're being fed misinformation every single day. And if you're not out there actively looking for information, actively researching and being curious yourself,

you're gonna be fed the wrong information. And you're not going to... When is this going to really take off? Dave hit it on the head. Now hold on, let me just finish this one sentence and then I wanna hear what you have to say, Mike. But Dave hit it on the head. And then it really takes off when the mainstream banks,

the big banks can profit from it. And guess what? Now they can hold it on the head. And then it really takes off when the mainstream banks, the big banks can profit from it. And guess what? Now they can hold it as an asset. Now they can create different products around it. Now they can create lending products, collateralized products. They can create loans on it. I was just in, in Jackson Hole. And we were, we were talking about battery finance with Andrew Hohn. And I was was I was talking to Andrew about it. This is something that is new where you're going to be able to take Bitcoin, you're going to use it as part of your collateral for different kind of lending products and borrowing products. This is huge. Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Citibank, Wells Fargo, all these banks involved, and they're able to do this, they're going to offer it, and they're going to make the distinction between Bitcoin and everything else purposefully now. It's going to happen now. But up until now, there's so much confusion around it. And so that is a, that's a massive sea change that we haven't seen yet. And we're not going, it's not gonna be overnight. That's the best part about it,

is that the way that this adoption is happening is it's taking a very long time, which gives me confidence that structurally, it's going to be a much stronger asset than anything else that we've seen. As long as the stock market goes up. Yeah, really quick, I wanna show you something interesting. So I brought this up really quickly.

Only 4% of the world's population holds Bitcoin. Actually, I thought that was high. I would be interested to Mike's point to see how many of the people below 30 or below 40. But I would argue that most of these people, even who are in crypto, Mike, and I know I keep saying this, they don't own Bitcoin. They own mean coin and other crypto. You're making one key assumption. A lot of people don't care. I agree. No, I think 90% don't care.

I want to show you guys something. I noticed this yesterday. I immediately texted Jason Yannowitz from BlockWorks when I saw this. BlockWorks incredibly does disclosures of everyone who works there and what they own. These are crypto native people covering crypto every single day. James, if you want to see your point. Now, some of the editorial staff probably says, Hey, we're not going to buy the thing we're reporting on to their point.

But most of the people even who work at some of the biggest crypto agencies and media companies, most of these people don't own any of it. Even the ones who work on it and cover it every single day. And then when you even go down to the research team, only about half own Bitcoin, most of them are in altcoins. I think the younger generation is doing this pump dot fun over here. Although pump dot fun, Mike, by the way, has fallen off a cliff and is lower than when it launched her daily profit. So that's done. The meme coin thing you keep pointing to is at least for now is a rounding error

Again, it's done But I think that most people even the ones who understand it don't actually own it and even less of them own Bitcoin Specifically because most people come into crypto through speculating on other assets Right, but you got to buy for Kate two things too. And I thank you for that info, Scott. And that's exactly right. So, but you got to buy for Kate two things here, Mike. You said that Bitcoin will only go up if the stock market goes up. Okay. Let's unpack that. Will the stock market go up in the future? And I mean, we will have drawdown. It always goes up.

Okay. Why is that? Because of? Because of? Because of? The denominator. The denominator, because of the dollar, because of the debasement of the underlying currency. It's not because the companies are expanding. That's one thing. So long-term stock market will go up,

long-term Bitcoin will go up. Okay, that's just one part of it. The second part of it is you have to bifurcate the Bitcoin demonetizing other assets. Bitcoin can demonetize other assets while everything else stays constant. Bitcoin can get, can gather more assets because it's demonetizing them. It's easier to own Bitcoin than it is to own a piece of art. It's easier than a collectible. Now some of those things you do because of, you know, emotional or whatever purposes that you like to see the jersey on your wall, or you like to see the football in a

case or you like to see the piece of art up there. Banana tape to a wall. Banana tape to a wall, as long as you don't need it. And then the, you know, of course, of course, there is there is there is money laundering that happens with art, I get that that's a whole nother thing. But, you know, the reality is that Bitcoin will demonetize other assets and it won't be just art and collectibles. It will be gone.

But you're saying that as a fact. That's your opinion. I appreciate it. But let's not say it's facts. I'll point out facts. Facts are Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency. Now there's 12.4 million, if not more. You can create them with nothing. It takes nothing. It's unlimited supply like seashells. It's not the first one. It's the first one that has really been adopted. Which is not repeat the same things that most of us who are really involved, certainly you were, oh, we're 10 or 8 years ago. Now it's the mainstream. It's over. OTETF people are selling. They got it. They bought into the hype. I've seen this in commodities. I've seen this in housing. I've seen it in other markets. I've seen it in stocks 20 years ago. You have been a long-term Bitcoin advocate. You think that it's over. That Bitcoin, it's

it. It's the peak and it's good. It'll never get to the high. I'll never say never about anything, but no, I think the 100,000 levels equivalent to the NASDAQ 5000 and 2000. We all remember that almost exactly 25 years ago today. The sentiment I see here, the valuations I see here. And I have to admit, yeah, so it could go back to 10,000. But when you say that, it's just some of the valuations and some of the things that people say that, oh, these aren't Bitcoin, I get it. But there's 12 million Bitcoins now.

They're related, they're cryptocurrencies. Sorry, but they are. I just- And at the certain point, repeating arguments doesn't make them true. bitcoins now. They're related. They're crypto currencies. Sorry, but they are. And I just point repeating our number, you know, even coin market cap has now lowered what they cover. Okay, so I'm saying 35,000 is much better. But we had Listen, this is 14 million 463 addresses on pump dot fund. That's what we're looking at. They've launched 8.2 million tokens on there. These things are all gone. All of them.

They're gone. They don't exist. If you count 11 million competitors as things that are worth zero and and existed for one hour, then yes, how but unlimited supply of supply. That's the point. Unlimited. So the key thing is, we're talking about something that's in the mainstream completely now. It's not the time to go wait. Look, here's the simple point. When you're forced to eat those words, which are completely false, actually, of all the things you've said in the couple of years, we've been on the

show, the notion that Bitcoin has unlimited supply because it could be crypto crypto is I understand, but Bitcoin, unlike gold, unlike anything else, has completely limited supply. Isn't there an unlimited supply of all metals? If we're talking about all metal versus gold, can't we say gold is an unlimited supply? There's only four metals in the earth. Hence my point on platinum. Look, there were people who owned silver years ago, going back to Williams, Jennings, Brian,

when gold for centuries, centuries traded between 15 and 20 times more than silver. Why? Because in the earth's crust, gold is 15 to 20 times rarer than silver. And then all of a sudden, as prices, the Industrial Revolution happened, people needed more portability, etc. prices start Prices, you know, start going up. And all of a sudden, gold now goes to somewhere between, you know, 50 to one. So it's closer to 85 now, but between between 50 and 100 times. So that massive thing broke. Do you not think that there were people who own silver said, Oh, it's got to come back. I hear people talking about silver going back to the 15 to 20 time, 15 to 20

ratio to gold all the time. I actually think it's gonna happen. It's gonna happen when Bitcoin demonetizes gold, you know, decade or two from now. But but the point is, is that you can't rely on past like you you argue you reply on performance. Let's not we'll stick to the word beta that actually manages risk the way you use it. Nobody. Okay. But everybody who bought into the people who bought into the ETF mantra for Bitcoin, we're told that it's a lever.

It's not leveraged, but it's like a digital version to go. This can outperform the stock market and it's a risk off asset. They're being proved wrong. They're being proved the things I said all along that Bitcoin is great. It's the fastest horse in race. As long as race is the markets going up, now the market's going down. It's the wrong asset to be in the market going down. So if you're bullish Bitcoin that's great, you better hope the stock market goes up.

And I think people are hitting those stops. Now maybe it'll bounce from this 200 day moving average. My point is the actual people who run this money are getting it and they're realizing this is a great asset as long as the stock market is going up. Now I realize I'm in an asset that's making me lose more money than I did before because I bought it when I could have been stuck. Let me ask you this, Mike. If the market draws down 30%, would you buy Bitcoin or not?

Exactly. Again, I don't know if I'll put a bullish recommendation, but right now I've been tempted as I was bold enough to put, it was 10 grand five years ago, say it's going to add a zero. I'm thinking it's just going to take off a zero. I'm not going to put, you know, it was 10 grand, you know, five years ago, say it's gonna add a zero. I'm thinking it's just gonna take off a zero. I'm not gonna publish on it yet. I'm thinking about it. But because I have to point out the difference now is every single thing I see is everybody's so bullish. I've seen this before. It's like the days I've been in trading pits, I call up every customer and they're all bullish and you know they're gonna be wrong. It's just- Man, I don't see a lot of- Everyone's there in my world. Yeah, I gotta say that if we're gonna talk about Friday

after the strategic Bitcoin reserve on Crypto Town Hall being all the top signals you could ever find saying Bitcoin never goes higher, the ceiling is in forever, might be the greatest bottom signal I've ever heard. I'm not saying specifically even from you, but I'm hearing that a lot. Like I'm hearing 60, 50, 70. I don't hear specifically even from you, but I'm hearing that a lot like I'm hearing 60 50 70

I don't hear anyone saying we're going back above 100 right now. So The good news is then that we've So and so the guy who's been completely wrong about selling it a hundred grand graded, you know They've keep throwing me under map for that. I mean, yes, I was earlier But okay, the point is now it's a certain point in my fiduciary duty. I think sometimes It's help people not get involved in this highly speculative digital asset for the wrong reasons and that is yes It's okay to get long this up Remember what you're getting long and why and then there's things like that. There's the correlations. It's the facts of markets is that's

Finding out because all the alts go down, Ethereum's at 2 grand. Finally, at 4,000, it was too expensive. The facts are when some of these, the whole alt space goes down, Bitcoin goes down with it, just goes down less. And here's how I think I really make my prediction. I really do think it's the opposite. Okay, well, the point is markets going down.

So, and I'm wrong. I agree, I'm just saying, I really do deeply believe from looking at this market for so long, when Bitcoin goes down, everything goes down more. for so long when Bitcoin goes down everything goes down more It's not when everything goes down Bitcoin follows it. That's just that's not correct either When the market draws down 30% and bitcoins down 50% That is the time to buy Bitcoin Because typically if the market draws down 30%, Bitcoin will draw down 70%,

typically historically in baseline volatility. That is true, maybe. And maybe, it depends on- Oh, okay, tap it now. It's down with 30%, S&P 500 on the year. Okay, on the year, Bitcoin's down 13%, S&P 500's down three. Yeah, but just talking about peak to draw. Okay, from peak, okay.

Tradeable, so it's gotta be close. You can't compare Bitcoin or crypto to the S&P you can compare to Nvidia though Yeah, they're individual assets. So, you know, you got it. So look we can talk about all this But everything you said boils down to a very simple point. It's momentum investing There are people who if you bought the ETF as a momentum play Sure bought the ETF as a momentum play, sure, then you want you have stops and you're out. If you bought the ETF because you say Bitcoin is at a 90 or anywhere, it was an 80, now it's at a 90% discount, whatever it is, to what its intrinsic value would be if it demonetizes

gold vis-a-vis fiat, you don't give a fuck. You're sitting there with your Bitcoin in your 401k, you look at it and you go, okay Well, it kind of sucks, but it's not horrible I've gone through worse if you looking at Nvidia on the other hand you're looking at anything Okay, it's gone down just as much actually more and you're looking at saying oh my god What's gonna happen? Are those people stopped out of that? Maybe some are but if you're a long-term believer then you're like You know what? I know what happened if I if I got stopped out of Amazon and at the wrong

time, although video is so big that it's a bad corollary to that. Bring up this chart. Okay. I mean, it's really about momentum versus value, right? It's the old meme where the door, where you have the two people, one Bitcoin a hundred K and there's a line out the door to people to buy it. One Bitcoin 80 K where the line is, is, is nobody, and there's a line out the door to people to buy it, one Bitcoin 80K, where the line is nobody. You know, that's the only...

This is all the people about that, that ETF, Mike. That's, those are the people about the ETF. Yeah, someone may have sold up at 80 and 90. This is the FBTC, pretty good proxy, that and Ibit, or Bitwise, you know, but these are the people. Look at the volume. Most of the volume was down here at 60. Right at the beginning. All the way to the left. That's where most of the volume was. Look at that hump. Most people are still in profit. So they're not upset. They've actually doubled their money or, or close to, you know. So that's the reality. It's not everybody who got into ETF and just like you said, let's talk facts. I agree. It's my opinion that Bitcoin will demonetize other assets like bonds and real estate in

the future. And it's also not true that everybody in the ETF has lost money and they're all dumping it now. I wouldn't say that but the point is what you said makes complete sense. It could happen from 10,000 Bitcoin but it's not a hundred thousand. It could easily. My point is what's happening right now with this year is just getting started. Tariffs have barely started. Doge has barely started. Bitcoin's going down. ETFs are flowing out. Gold's going back up. ETFs are flowing in after four years

of outflows. And what happens when the Fed lowers rates because it blinks? It's going to lower rates when risk assets make them. And Powell made that clear on Friday. There's no reason to lower rates. Everything's fine. Risk assets make that happen. Remember, none of us were alive the last time we had market cap to GDP on the way up, reached

two times GDP. It's just starting to roll over for good reasons. Just start. See, I agree with that. And I think that you're right about about the stock market. The real question is what else is factual? What is factual is that speculation and the use and the futures as the only method for US firms to be able to express long demand and Bitcoin is ending. And as a result, now the market internals are people who had the long ETF short futures trade don't do that anymore. So that's going to take all the a lot of the crap and it actually has that's your mind right there. Terry trade.

The same thing is true. The if you want to speculate in crypto anywhere in the world, you use memes. That is ending. It doesn't mean there won't be an attention economy. It doesn't mean there won't be memes. Memes are as old as time just expressed. I mean, hell, for a long time, there are multiple stock market people buying stocks because of the stories. Right?

Yeah. If you follow people like Bill Fleckenstein, he used to call Micron the flying pig. Why? Because for decades, he couldn't make a penny, could not make a penny because they were competing with Samsung and others. So they just had to gin the things up by raising money and building more fabs and lowering prices. There's a lot of things that go on in markets.

The only thing that I feel is a certainty and pretty damn close to a certainty is that there is a need for a digital asset that will have limited supply, that basically I'm gonna describe Bitcoin. There's a need for it. Tether is dollars. And you're gonna see a ton of it.

And by the way, when Tether wins, and the USDC wins, and more of the world dollarizes, you know what that means? That means more purchasing power in the crypto economy and in the real economy together. And it actually makes it way the hell easier to buy and sell most crypto. And so it will, it's a demand drive. So remind that to you. It drive. So remind what it is, it's a casino. It's great, buy and sell trade is a casino. I completely agree with that. What's the stock market? Anyone look, I spent a lot of time playing poker.

Yeah, I don't care if it has fancy words like 401k or Wall Street. I worked on Wall Street. I worked at one of the most successful hedge funds in Wall Street history, worked at one of the one of the most successful hedge funds in Wall Street history. Okay. You know, you know, at two sigma, this is not, I'm not coming from whatever, whatever. The fact is casinos are casinos. The difference between Wall Street and and casinos is Wall Street is highly regulated and over engineered. And the and there's a thumb on the scales in favor of firms like such as the one I ran, right? Whereas actual markets, if they developed correctly,

wouldn't have that thumb on the scale. Now is it as big a thumb as people think? No, retail equity traders don't really have a thumb against them. They just don't, you know, they tend not to trade very well because they're not all that smart sometimes. They heard fall like lemmings, but the truth is that retail equities are growing. So we talk about the retail culture all the time. Keep in mind something. The crypto retail traders are treated like dog

shit. They pay dramatically over more than an order of magnitude more in all in trading costs to get in and out of crypto than they do to get in and out of Nvidia more than order of magnitude closer to two orders of magnitude more. Here's a question happens every time that decreases What happens when that decreases and it's inevitable you're gonna get more of it. Just remember that what does that mean for it? So let's look at this. So we have coin Coinbase right? It's one of the main publicly traded crypto exchanges. Is it gonna get a lot more competition from other firms going public? Like, who else is there?

Cracken, Gemini, Cracken. I mean, I lived that. I mean, I remember when trading and trading pits it cost 12 bucks a round term for futures. Now it's like 12 cents. Mike, I can also tell you to that point, just as a matter of fact, OKX is gonna come back to the United States

with a major presence in the current environment. Binance is coming back as Binance US to the United States. International exchanges will also have a much more sizable presence in the United States. Coinbase, I'm very bullish on Coinbase. And what happens when- They will have a lot more companies. That means it's great for the casino for trading, but what we're proving, just the key theme

I've been making is where cryptos don't underestimate Bitcoin cryptos, it's leverage beta and beta is going down for now. Okay. Look, the beta is factually is a backward looking unstable relationship. What is a stable relationship? People want to understand what ended the internet bubble? What ended the internet bubble and brought us into the most stable bull market in history? Then had the world financial crisis from the bond side.

Lower prices. Look back, lower costs of trading was a major, major factor in getting retail back into the market. And when you're talking about Coinbase, it's not a bad thing about Coinbase stock. Coinbase is from actual retail trading is down historically relative to custody and other things. But the facts are the facts.

Retail trading is going to get an order of magnitude cheaper and then another order of magnitude cheaper. At the same time, best execution is going to come in. People are not going to get screwed anymore. Market makers will mature. What we saw from the 90s through 2005 when Reg NMS came in is more than a 10x in volume in equity markets as the cost of trade went down. These are long term factors.

So when you look at those long term factors, understand that you have to be careful. There is that. None of this is anything to do with Bitcoin, though. I mean, it has a lot to do with all coins and whether it to be careful. There is that. None of this is anything to do with Bitcoin though. I mean, it has a lot to do with all coins or whether it will be there. I personally tend to agree with you that I look at things, I look at some of these memes,

Farcoin, I want all these things to be zero, all of them. I want all of them to be zero. Okay, so let's get through that period and that's when I think it'll be time to buy Gitcoin. That's my point. We have to get through that period. And it's just dragging everything lower right now. I think it's just I think it'll be time to buy get quite. That's my point. We have to get through that period and everything. It's just dragging everything lower right now. That's I think, you know, it's just still doing it. I mean, 70 is the next level.

We're talking about neat levels, but it's we all know. We point that out. It's just there. The thing that's certain is that the correlation between Bitcoin and all of the cryptos, the thing that's uncertain is correlation between Bitcoin and beta. Wow. I mean, it's no doubt that Nasdaq drops 2%. No doubt that when Nasdaq drops 2% like it is now, that Bitcoin has dropped more or less the same. That's true.

Everything James is right. It's no, it's not. It's down about 7%. You gotta can do it from Friday. And Nasdaq's only measure from Friday. Well, no. That's beta three times beta. It's a beta, yes. That's it, three times beta. It's a fact, yes.

That's it, because nobody's it's the measure from market to market. It makes me watch him trading this weekend, it traded down to 80, it actually is above. Exactly, that's my point, but NASDAQ didn't trade. The point is, the last time that was marked, no. NASDAQ is down, what, 3% since Friday, Bitcoin's down 7% since Friday.

That's a fact. Okay. It's three times. But Bitcoin traded as much% since Friday. That's a fact. Okay. It's three times. But Bitcoin traded as much volume with this weekend. That's our point is no, if you're holding it as a hedge, I'm long Bitcoin, I'm long Bitcoin because I want to outperform the NASDAQ. I have one third of it because I'm, you know, I'm going to outperform the NASDAQ with one third of position. Well, you're basically keeping up, but NASA is going down. I mean, that's,

I think about people holding it, not just trading it too. No, you're thinking about such a short term, short period, Mike. No, no, this is macro, okay. So if you sold some NASDAQ to buy Bitcoin, what do you expect for performance? Expect that fast-source to raise the win, right?

When did I sell and what's the situation? I don't mean you but if normal people, okay so okay all this money that went in ETFs just comes from nowhere? It has come from somewhere. Yeah okay, typically comes from other risk assets. Typically, maybe it takes some profits and queues and buy some bitcoin. Okay, if I sell 100 units of queues and I buy 30 units of bitcoin and market goes up, I should accept the same performance. And they're getting the same thing and the same down.

That's my beta I'm showing you and everything is going down. Bitcoin is just going down more because it's much more of a speculative risk gasket. People are learning it's not like treasury bonds, which to me is, I'll point out right now, you get 2.95% in that Canadian 10-year note. I think that's where our long bonds going, our 10, you know, is going, particularly if risk assets keep going down. And where do you think my Nvidia is down 20% year to date,

Bitcoin is down 13 and a half percent year to date. That is not three times beta. But that's it. You have to look at it that way. You have to, it's a single asset, Mike. You know, I think we're going to determine which view we're going to take the multiple and the six minute overtime right here. But I do love the heated exchange today.

I think I'm supposed to go for Crypto Town Hall on spaces obviously, but it seems like X for the third time today is completely down. So I don't know what's happening. Yeah, X is a is not working at the moment. We didn't have other like, by the way, really bullish news. I just showed you stable coin market cap over 200 million Utah passed a Bitcoin bill but left out the strategic Bitcoin reserve part they did the right to custody and protect miners and Texas passed the Senate 25

five with a strategic Bitcoin reserve that will inevitably the McDonald's calls for me. Yeah. I'm surprised with that. I gotta get that right. I mean, much appreciate the discourse, guys. It really helps me hone my views, and I really appreciate that. We have great discourse. We help our audience make decisions. Yeah, I could not agree more.

I gotta run and figure out what the hell's happening with X. Guys, this is always amazing. Honestly, it's the best hour of the week. It's just so good and people love it. I hear that continuously how people love this banter and how we dissect the market and we don't just all sit here and agree

and it's important. Got to disagree. And I agree, we've got it. I agree to disagree and that's good. Hey, listen, as a guy who's largely doing the interviewing and not giving opinions on a day-to-day basis Most of these strong opinions that I have which are loosely held come from the discourse on these shows Alright, I listen to what everyone has to say and formulate my opinion based on the information that speaks to me the most so Hopefully it's as useful for the people listening as it is for me. We got to go guys

It's 1008. Thank you very much. We'll see you all next go. Let's go. Let's go.