The Wolf Of All Streets - Binance Is Under Attack | Will It Survive?

Episode Date: September 20, 2023

Mike Alfred join me to discuss the future of Binance. Chris Inks will provide his analysis of crypto markets. Join at 9 am EST.  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! ����https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

The SEC has been on a warpath against the crypto industry, and nobody's been in the crosshairs more than Binance. But there's a lot of speculation that it goes way beyond the SEC with Binance. There's DOJ case coming. They could be targeting CZ himself and Binance. And we've seen a major uptick in chatter about regulation and the DOJ against Binance US specifically. We're seeing employees leave, executives leave, no volume. Basically, everything that could possibly go wrong with an exchange is going wrong with Binance US right now. Here to discuss it with me, of course, is Mike Alfred, also got Christopher Inks talking charts and trades at the end of the stream. You guys don't want to miss this one. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Malker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street.

Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel, hit that like button. As you guys can obviously tell, pretty under the weather. My voice sounds like I've got a frog stuck in my throat. I made the trip to Singapore, and inevitably, when you come back from a trip that long and having everybody all up in your face at a conference, here you go. You're going to find yourself sick one way or another, but that's not going to stop us from showing up and having this conversation. Now, guys, as you know, like I said, Binance massively under fire. I don't think anybody's been staying on top of it

more than today's guest, Mike Alfred. I'm going to go ahead and bring him on right now. Mike, good morning. How are you? Good morning. Sorry, you're not feeling well, buddy. I was in New York last week and I took hand sanitizer. And believe it or not, the Maxis are going to hate this. I wore a mask on the plane, both directions, even though it's not required because I can't afford to be sick with a little baby at home. So yeah, I mean, that's it. There's a reason that Asian culture, they wore masks long before COVID in those situations. It has nothing to do with politics. I don't know why people don't understand that, but whatever. You might as well. It has to be a blue mask, actually, I hear, if you're going to wear a mask, technically. I think that's the rule. Listen, man, there's a lot going on here with Binance, obviously. I think everyone knows,

so we can just cook through it. Obviously, the SEC filed charges, more charges coming for crypto exchanges and DeFi. We've got the judge asking Binance US and SEC to simmer down in their dispute because it's getting heated up. SEC rips into Binance US over shaky assets. You get the idea, right? I mean, there's no stopping this runaway train against Binance right now. It's funny because we haven't really heard much about Coinbase of late from the SEC, but they have not stopped going after Binance. I mean, where do you stand on this right now? What's your general feeling? Well, almost a year ago now, I was probably one of the loudest voices on Twitter, specifically around the risk to Binance. And November, December last year was not very popular.

A lot of people told me that there's no way. Binance is the best capitalized company. CZ is the best founder. It's a magical bean printing factory, all these things. And now the sentiment has totally shifted. I'm seeing even classic crypto personalities turn against Binance because I think there's enough evidence now that Binance in fact was not operating exactly the way that they said. I mean, there's some nuance here though, because the SEC has definitely overreached in some areas. There's what we believe to be true and then there's sentiment, but then there's also like the facts and the law. And I think the SEC has overstepped in a number of areas. And in some cases, they've been pushed back on.

They've lost in court a couple times recently, notably with XRP and GBTC. I think Gensler's time is running short, candidly. I don't think he'll last that much longer. I think he's deeply unpopular. I think a lot of their decisions have been poor. That said, you don't want to be on the wrong side of the US government or any US government agency. It's a loser's battle in the long run. And I think what they've effectively done is made Binance unattractive as a counterparty. And I've heard this repeatedly when I was traveling this week. I'd heard a lot

of people say, look, we're just not comfortable leaving capital on Binance anymore. We're not comfortable using them as a trading anymore. We're not comfortable using them as a trading partner. And nothing's even really happened yet other than to some degree, the SEC has managed to defang the company, right? They've managed to make them somewhat irrelevant because the volumes are plummeting. The Binance US business is effectively dead. Dead. They killed Binance US without proving a single thing. I mean, Binance US, I've said this over and over again, and maybe that's good because it'll wind down quietly.

So maybe that's not necessarily a bad thing, but they killed all the banking relationships. They killed any interest retail had in trading on there. And they killed any, as you said, interest that institutions would want to have with Binance US simply by making the claims. Yeah, look, I come on two sides with this. One is that may not have been the right way to do it, but the outcome, if from a Machiavellian standpoint, might actually be justified

in the sense that Binance US, all the data that I've seen, all the research that the kind of online crypto on-chain sleuths have done show that it was basically a funnel for CZ's market makers offshore. They did not follow the rules. It was a regulatory smokescreen from the very beginning. And so I think US customers were definitely at risk, were using it. And as recently as like six or nine months ago, some pretty prominent people in crypto were trying to convince me that Binance US was a great company that was going to be safe and was going to protect users. And some of those people were getting paid off. They were getting tribute, in a sense, because Binance US was a member of their group and was paying into

some sort of pool. As you know, Scott, there's just so many conflicts in this space. And so I just have stopped listening to anyone who gets paid by any of these companies, at least as it relates to their opinion about the company that's paying them. If you ask somebody who's getting paid a lot of money by a company, what do you think of the company? Of course, they're going to say it's great. So, yeah, look, the SEC effectively killed Binance US, but I'm not sure that that's really a bad thing. And then the BUSD thing was effectively killed by the potential crackdown on Paxos. Again, not sure that's such a bad thing either, because later, after all this started, CZ and the team over there admitted, well, you're right, this stablecoin was not fully collateralized. And so that was a pretty big risk to holders of that asset. And of course, if you have a stable coin that's not collateralized like Tether was for most of its history, it's quite risky to the user. So yeah, I think, again, from a Machiavellian standpoint, I think the ends justify the means

to some degree. But I don't know if that will work through this whole process. Binance's Bitcoin trading volume plunges 57% as regulatory pressure mounts. Talking about volumes, that's just since September 1st. That's in 19 days. That's an astounding drop. Coinbase up 9% in that time. You have to wonder if they're the beneficiary, but this isn't Binance US. This is the main Binance. So speaking of that Machiavellian standpoint, listen, if something bad is going to happen to Binance, everybody should actually be happy that they're becoming marginalized in a smaller part of the market. But if they haven't done anything, this is strictly a result of what I guess people would call fun at that point. I

know you hate that term. Yeah, I don't care what people use the term. Again, I care mostly about the factual basis. And I, again, back in like November of last year, I pointed out close to a hundred things over the course of several months in a series of different tweets of ways that Binance behaved that was not consistent with what they represent themselves to be publicly related to the way they re-denominate customer assets, right? The way they lend out customer assets, the under collateralized stable coin, the inability to file and regulate themselves sort of anywhere, despite a lot of job owning about doing that. And again, you could go on and on and on and on. So like somebody can say FUD, FUD this, FUD that for whatever. I kind of chuckled to myself about that. It ultimately

comes down to what did this company actually do? I understand philosophically why CZ wanted to avoid regulation, right? Like regulation and having a domicile causes you to be accountable. And so if you don't want to be accountable, like a lot of the historical crypto exchanges, by the way, they didn't want to be accountable. They're literally exchanges like Quadriga CX, where the founder stole everything and then died. Or at least we think they died. Somebody saw the body in India. But that's the type of behavior that happens in crypto because these are bearer assets and they can literally just disappear and there's no way to get them back. And so if you're a crypto founder and you want to be sort of free of all shackles of any sort of traditional regulation, sure, domicile nowhere, but don't

have an executive team, don't have a board of directors, don't say who your investors are, all this stuff. But that all happened. So saying now, hey, we have to find out whether they really did something. They did something and it was obvious a year ago. The thing that's changed now is the public perception has totally shifted. There's a tipping point that happened over the last, I'd say, 90 days or so, where even the crypto cheerleaders have downturned against Binance. And that's something that has, to me, nothing to do with the fact pattern, because the fact pattern was clear a year ago and they didn't want to hear it. It's that some people are actually influenced more by public perception and sentiment than by the facts. I only cared a year ago about the facts. Nobody told me that Binance was a bad company. I looked at the data.

I looked at the fact pattern. I said, there's a problem here. And people said, you're wrong. Don't you dare talk about my beloved Binance like that. If Binance goes down, it's the end of the ecosystem. I said, I don't think that's the case. But either way- I definitely don't think that's the case now. Yeah. Well, look, that's what happens, right? And I'm paying attention to the people who are flipping in the last 30 days and all of a sudden saying they're concerned about Binance because those are the people you don't want to listen to next cycle because it's clear they don't have an independent opinion about this. Yeah, you've got a couple of great tweets here, actually, of late. CZ refused to sign a global settlement in the spring with the DOJ, CFTC, and SEC because it would have made it harder to conduct criminal activities. His executive team did not want to

face jail time, so they fled en masse. Now it looks like a settlement is back on the table, and he followed that up with a proposed settlement. It would involve a permanent ban on conducting operations in the US, a multi-billion dollar fine, and CZ's resignation in return for non-prosecution. I don't think Binance will go down this cycle, but every day that passes, the company is becoming increasingly feckless and irrelevant. I mean, do you think that it seems like consensus almost at this point that CZ is going to step down?

I heard it in Singapore when I was over there a hundred times. Yeah, well, if the choice is that he's going to be under attack for the next two or three years and that there's a risk that no matter where he travels, he could be arrested and extradited. At some point, it's like, okay, this happens all the time in the US, by the way, people resign without admitting wrongdoing. They agree to never serve as an executive or officer or board director of a publicly traded company. But in return, they get a non-prosecution agreement and they get to continue to own their assets. So the valuable thing here for CZ is if he can maintain any sort of profitability, any sort of cashflow within the broader finance entity, as the owner, he doesn't

need to be the manager. He doesn't need to be the manager. He doesn't need to be the CEO. A lot of the wealthiest people in the world refuse to run any of their own businesses, in part because of liability, in part because of time. It's a pain in the ass. So if he's smart and he can avoid prosecution, he can negotiate. I know he's got a number of wonderful attorneys that used to work in the DOJ advising him. And I think they advised him quite sternly. This is what I've heard in the spring to go ahead andJ advising him. And I think they advised him quite sternly, if this is what I've heard, right? Like in the spring to go ahead and do a deal. And I think the executive departure was in part his stubbornness, his unwillingness to settle or compromise on any of the issues that these regulators and law enforcement agencies wanted him to settle on. If it were me knowing that I'm up against multiple government,

US government agencies, again, as a US citizen, it's very different, but I would have taken the best deal possible to maintain my ownership and continue to take the cashflow and started a new business. And maybe next time, have a board of directors and follow the rules, et cetera. It's not that hard. It's just as hard to build a great, large business that's regulated and well-run as it is to build a business that breaks all the rules. He's spending more time evading regulation than he needs to, in my opinion. I guess the question is if there's actually fraud, would stepping down actually give him any sort of immunity or protection at this point? The more separation you have,

so you see this all the time, right? Board directors and CEOs sometimes resign, and then it turns out a year or two later, there was some sort of fraudulent activity. And most of the time, people don't look back that far, unless it becomes a very big public problem where like all the mainstream journalists are writing stories about it and it affects millions of people. So in CZ's case, like if Binance, if you were to step down now and then it were to collapse in two years, no one's going to forget that he was the leader of the organization. So yeah, you know, maybe from his perspective, it's a good idea to maintain control for as long as possible. I mean, look at Mashinsky as a case study for this. Mashinsky

was able to hold on to the legal control for like an extra six months or nine months. And during that time, he was able to do whatever he could to buttress his case that maybe he shouldn't be prosecuted. But of course, the moment he was out and the outsiders came in and they now have the levers of power, they have control of the legal and accounting budget, right? They have control of all the documents and all the information. They said, look, it's very clear that this person committed fraud. And I don't know if you remember this, Scott, but I think it was June of last year, right as this was happening, it wasn't clear yet what had happened to Celsius. I said, if there was evidence of fraud right and i think there would be that like you know there's probably going to be something that comes down personally i had you i had you caitlin mashinsky and bill barheight if my memory

well that was a few months that was a few months like in In March or April before it happened. I'll say you didn't mince words. You held yourself together. You could have been more aggressive, I guess. But you had very clear things to say about what was coming. Caitlin did as well. Bill, I guess, kind of kept quiet being in the same business. But you saw it coming.

There's no question there. And it was very clear in that interview. Well, then in June though, I came back on right as they shut withdrawals, which is something that I predicted multiple times right before it happened. But once it happened, the only question in my mind was, would it turn out that it was just like mismanagement, like without intention? Or would it turn out that it was active fraud? And my suspicion at that time, and I said it, and you made sure to say, hey, we don't know for sure if this is true, Mike, but my suspicion at the time is that there's just no way that

something like that set of facts that played out at Celsius over the course of several years would have happened in the absence of fraud. And so I actually think that Binance might be less nefarious in some ways than Celsius. I agree. Celsius was an outright fraud. Like Mashinsky was literally lying and cheating and stealing for years before it broke. I think CZ is trying to follow the crypto ideology of controlling your own keys and not letting the government tell you what to do and stuff like that. The problem is it doesn't really work when you have a multinational business serving millions of retail customers. You just can't have that attitude and expect to

survive. And whether he meant to or not, some of the things that Binance has done have been similar in nature to those other firms. Yeah. I mean, my feeling on Binance has done have been similar in nature to those other firms. Yeah. I mean, my feeling on Binance still, and I've said this from the very beginning, is that most of what they did probably wrong was in the early days when a lot of the things regulatory in different places were unclear. But then, I mean, if you start talking about not backing customer funds and things, if that's all true, then I'm clearly wrong. I just wonder if at this point, Binance, when they're under this much pressure and this much heat, is basically compliant in dealing with things they did in the past. Yeah. This is the same speculation that people wanted to say about Celsius. Even as it was collapsing, people were like, well, they're shutting withdrawals, but they probably have all my money.

And it may turn out after they unwind FTX and Celsius that my original prediction of $0.50, $0.60, $0.70 on the dollar might actually come true after they claw back all of the stuff, including the personal liability. Celsius isn't done returning funds to shareholders and depositors until... Not shareholders, because shareholders are going to get wiped, but the depositors, until they actually go after Bischofsky personally. Because he may personally be holding hundreds of millions of dollars of assets that, in my view, probably belong to the depositors who got shafted in that situation. The same thing would happen with Binance if Binance were to crumble at some point. And again, my current view is in part because of this crackdown, by the way. And this is where I'm on two sides of the fence. I don't love the SEC. I don't think all their actions are justified.

But what they have done is made the Binance splash zone smaller in a sense, right? Because they've shrunk, actively shrunk down the size of the potential liabilities because Binance was forced to backpedal and change some of their strategies and they stopped getting bigger. They stopped metastasizing. And so if it were to go down now, the impact would be smaller. And I also think they may have de-risked certain parts of the business that they wouldn't have wanted to do.

Like CZ wouldn't have proactively done these things, but he was forced to. That's what I'm saying. They got more compliant with time knowing what was coming. And so it's possible that that actually enables Binance to survive the cycle. And maybe in three or five years, we're chuckling because Binance completely survived all this and it's a stronger company. That is totally possible. I said the same thing about Celsius and BlockFi though.

Even as I was predicting they would go down, I said it's possible that they could come back. And of course, now in retrospect, it was clear. Like Celsius was always doomed because the CEO was making one bad decision after another. I want to pivot off Binance just really quickly because I love this tweet. Justin, SEC Insider says, Chief Gary Gensler has told friends and advisors that he would like to gracefully extricate himself from his personal Vietnam by approving one or more spot Bitcoin ETFs from the major fund companies where he hopes to get a job after leaving the agency.

This was three days ago, but that means you're optimistic we will see a Bitcoin spot ETF, correct? I have the same feeling and I've heard the same bubblings. Yeah. I mean, the thing that would surprise the market if it happened in the next month, right? Because they're so intransigent and they're so anti the space. If it happened in the next month, I think the candle would be bigger, right? I think what's going to happen is the price is going to go up anyway over the next, call it six to nine months. And if the ETF is still hanging out as a catalyst in front of the market, that might actually be positive because you save the sell the news event for later down the road. But that said, since nobody seems to think it

could happen in October, if it were to happen in October, I think it would be quite explosive. I don't think Gensler has any intention of giving up so quickly because to some degree, this has become personal. It's become about his legacy. And because people like me are making tweets that are kind of making fun of him, he's probably going to fight the space as long as he can, as long as his overseers, the people in the upstairs room that are actually calling a lot of these shots are going to provide protection for him. I think that protection goes away this election cycle either way, but I think it's unlikely that there's an approval in the very short term. Yeah, I agree. But I love to hear you say that you think Bitcoin is going to continue going up for the next six to nine months. I'll take that as a win. Not in a straight line, but I think we do see how-

We don't do straight lines. Within the next year, the high degree of certainty that the price will be higher, even with the liquidity issues that everybody's citing. Last time you were on, it was the beginning to mid-August and you said, watch for something interesting at the end of August. And a day or two before that, we got that massive grayscale win and candle to the upside. Of course, it retraced, but you did say something big would happen at the end of August. Yeah, look, it's been a really crappy negative market for like

two months now. I think because it's been so negative for basically two months and like a week now, there's a good chance still that there there'll be a surprising uh rally at some point between now and the end of the year everybody thinks now that the like nothing's gonna happen until after the having and so that gives me a bit more confidence that something will happen before the having because because consensus is almost always wrong about bitcoin so i'm trying to keep my finger on the pulse i found a couple bullish people though by the way over the last two months which has been great um because most of the big traders have been like unabashedly bearish uh in spite of us coming into what i think is like the most bullish period of the cycle like the next two years historically should be wonderful yeah there'll be some 30 drawdowns for sure but like

you just kind of want to be wrong like i think the biggest risk right now is to like not be exposed to this market like people who are like oh i sold at 30 so i'm i'm doing great i'm out i'm like great but when next time it goes above 30 it might go from 28 to 37 in one candle so how smart were you being out like you feel good right now but you might not feel so good at 37 they're gonna buy at 40 and then sell again back here at 27 and this is what always happens even the smartest people in the space, they always outtrade themselves. Just having a simple view that Bitcoin will be higher in two years, I think it's really stupid and naive and simple, but it's probably going to make a lot more money than all of these charting traders on Twitter who sold it. They're all telling you you sold

at 30,500 and they're waiting to buy back. It's like, well, when are they going to buy back? If you didn't buy back at 24,8 or 25 or 25,2, when are you going to buy back? And I just don't understand that. But again, I'm not a trader. So I use it as helpful guidepost for- I'm buying back at 3K. 3K, I'm just waiting. I'm holding out, man. Mike, thank you so much for your time, man. Always appreciated. I'll have you back soon to keep your finger on the pulse and what's going on here man thank you so much thanks talk to you later bye now i've got someone else i think here who probably agrees that over the next six to nine months we will see prices potentially rising and certainly over the next two years and i know you guys missed it last week i was gone and now i'm paying for it because i'm sick but here is is the man, Texas West Capital, Christopher Inks. Do

you agree? Bitcoin up in the next six to nine months? Yeah. Can you hear me? Yeah, I got you. All right. Great. Yeah. That still remains the same thing I've been looking at for quite a while now. I mean, bar just looking at the chart as it is right now, every cycle has been the same thing I've been looking at for quite a while now. I mean, bar just looking at the chart as it is right now, every cycle has been this same way, right? Every cycle has been this rally up into, you know, prior to the halving, pulls back after the halving, then it breaks out and does, you know, the new all-time high. Every cycle has seen price rally up 70 and a half or 78.6% of that bear market decline. So, you know, and that's happened before the, uh, before the having. So if that happens now, you know, we're looking at 54 or 57,000 before the having now, you know, of course being, you

know, professional speculator, you know, you can't say, okay, well, it's guaranteed to happen again. But you look and you go, okay, well, it's happened every time up to now. So I have to kind of lean that way and just pay attention, right? You know, the odds are it's going to continue to happen unless something material changes in the market. And that's what everybody's trying to say. But you know, that's what everybody always says. You remember the bear market, man, last time. Yeah. Every time it's the same, people feel the same way. They can't get out of this idea that maybe the bottom may be in and price is actually rallying higher. And it's every market.

It's every bear market of every market, stocks, crypto, Forex, metals, whatever it is. It's the same person over and over again, the same type of person, right? We're human beings. Do I need to clarify now? Look, 3K, clip that and tweet it at Scott in the Bull Run, LOL. Chris also wants to buy a 3K with Scott. These are jokes, obviously. Guys, that was a joke. I'm just making it clear.

For anyone who wasn't listening, that was me mocking the ridiculous people who say that Bitcoin is going to 3K. You want to share your screen and tell me what you're looking at here specifically in the charts? Do it here real quick. Yeah, all right. There we go. So this is the Bitcoin chart I've been popping for a while here. I just keep on annotating it more and more for people

because they like details. But basically, I mean, you know, again, nothing, you know, this is looking at, this isn't even paying attention to what happens in the past, right? This is just looking as we're sitting here now. And so, you know, we've got accumulation, we've got this reaccumulation area we've got here. You know, the only thing is here, I think if

you've got a perp or you know, where you've got the leverage contracts coming out, I think you had a lower low in those exchanges. But if your spot, it was a it was a lower low over here. So you've got a higher low coming off those, you got a lower low here. But generally speaking, you know, we're finding support so far, you know, at the bottom of the range. If it breaks down, does that mean this changes? No, no, it just means, okay, so we get a spring, which is, you know, kind of somewhat like this, this terminal shakeout here, but the idea that you break down below and then you pop back up. So, um, you know, again, I'm not even concerned, you know, if we get a drop, I don't know, 23,000 or something, it's all still part of this

structure. Um, and the fact that we've gone sideways here for geez, how long is this? We're still here. 158 days now, 159 days, 160 days. That's a significant time to go sideways. And so, you know, the last time we went sideways, you know, big moves up, right? Doing it here again, you know, I don't know that we do one candle like Mike was saying, you know, hey, maybe that might happen. But, you know, I've been talking about if we pop above this, you know, this 31,000 here, I see little reason to believe this thing isn't going to rally up into the 40s you know pretty quick fast in a hurry um you know it might be something like this maybe you know um so i mean you know that's what we're still until something

materially changes that's what we're still looking at yeah i mean i i tend to agree i think also the fact that it just held 25 again so clearly on this drop when it was, we were back to the, everyone's, uh, consensus was, you know, 23,

21, 20, whatever. Now that we were down at 25 again, it was simply just another opportunity to buy support in this sort of range. Yeah. Um, if,

if I want to, you know, if I'm looking big picture here, I want to see a breakout above, uh, this swing high. So this is, what day is this? This is right around the 29th of last month, 29th of August.

That 28-ish something or other, right? Yeah, yeah. It's going to exchange on exactly. It's that one. But this is bearish market structure coming off the top here. We've got a high, a low, a lower high, lower low, lower high, lower low, right? So this is the last lower high. So if we break that, that means we break this bearish market structure.

We've got this bullish market structure from the swing low, right? So, I mean, minimally, big picture, that's the first thing we want to see. Until we get there, you know, still be wary that we could fall back down. I think once we break out above that, the chance, the opportunity increases exponentially that we're going to rally up to, you know, into the top of the range here at 2930. And if we get there, then the odds are significant that we're going to break out higher and head on up there. And I think most people, I think Mike said it right though. I think most people aren't expecting that. Most people are still, you know, trying to convince everybody

has to go down and it may, but I don't think that if you're looking at that, I don't think you're really paying a lot of attention, um, how you should on what's maybe going on here. Um, but you know, the only guarantee is that you're going to lose money at some point, right? So risk management is the number one thing you're going to do every day as a trader. So. Absolutely. So I see you got some other things up top. Let's cook through those charts that you brought. Yeah. So, um, I want to pull up. So, you know, Pepe, you love to talk about Pepe. So I've had a couple of people, a few people asked me about it recently. Um, you know, it just continues to pull back. Not as bad as ape. Ape just can't seem to find a bottom, but, um, you know, we're pulling back here. So what do I see? Well, I've, I've got a 1-2 and then potentially a 1 and a 2 here.

This is pulled back. This is the daily timeframe. We've got the daily S1 pivot at the 61.8 retracement right here around this, you know, is this 56, 600 kind of area. I am looking for, see if we can get a reaction off this that carries us and breaks us out above this descending resistance and this daily pivot. If we can get that impulsively, I think this thing rallies up. You know, it's got pretty good high. You know, it's going to break out new all-time high here.

Potentially up here around, you know, 13, 258, 185. But, you know, we need to see that. So i am watching to see if we get a reaction off this s1 pivot on the daily and then we break out impulsively above basically the daily pivot if we do that i i think we'll probably break out an all-time high but if we get above definitely if we get above this uh 189 411 that was this uh swing high over here on July 3rd. If we can get above that, then that should add confidence to the count there and suggest that we are headed up. I don't remember drawing this 10 days ago, but apparently I'm looking September 10th. Maybe somebody asked me to look at Pepe, but this is kind of what I thought on that.

Yeah, no, definitely, definitely a setup. i don't say the zeros anymore because there's like seven yeah exactly in front of it but once it lost i mean once it lost this this level that eight four whatever it is that was a pretty big i mean that was kind of the last support in this big gap vacuum here so maybe it doesn't get all the way down there but that's the way i would look at it it scares everyone out there and then running up to the top but we'll see and that would be all right too because that would get you a 70 and a half pullback that's an institutional you know retracement level so that you know is right there you can see how you can see that i've got that marked here as a secondary target if it does keep on going down um but right now i'm deferring to you know we're going to make sure and see if we get a reaction off that uh off that uh s1 pivot on the daily

there like i said if we break down i've got that same target mark right here this other red line 70 and a half retracement uh yeah again right there around that 41 7 some change area there so we'll see we'll see if we can do it everybody's getting pretty pessimistic about it but like i said at least it is an ape right now i mean but you know listen nft volumes are at historical low. I think I saw that Frentech did more volume the last nine days each day than all of the NFT market combined. It's tough, man. It's tough to hold them NFTs right now. Right, but so I mean, Ape being like so inextricably associated

to the NFT market is like, if you want something that could de-correlate from the altcoin market to the downside right now, that could offer an opportunity again once these things inevitably bounce because human's going to human. Yeah, I always look for, one of the things I look for is how extreme is that sentiment? At that point where everybody says, oh my God, it has to keep on going down. It's never going to go back up. Usually around that time you're finding a floor or you're starting to build one. So yeah, we'll see.

We expect probably to bump up at some point. So for sure. What else you got? Um, I, I, interestingly, I see this XDC, uh, you never even heard of it. I love it. It's, um, this one's on KuCoin here. This, this, uh, this particular one here, uh, we've got, we've got a great range down here at the bottom. So we had this great, uh, bit of accumulation going on here from June of last year. Well, I guess we do like this here. You know, through, what is this, March of this year. So we had our jump across the creek.

We had our back up the edge of the creek, the same kind of area we're looking at Bitcoin right now. And then, boom, you have this nice shot up here through the weekly pivot into the R1 pivot, pull back to the weekly pivot into the R1 pivot, pull back to the weekly pivot. So if we can get a rally off here and kind of get to breaking out above, you know, six and a half cents or so, you know, I would look forward to potentially challenge the swing high up here at right there around nine and a half cents. If we can break that, my next target is going to be this 14.225 cents right around the r2 pivot on the weekly but i'm not sure that's going to happen just yet you know this is only a 38-2 pullback on this entire run so if if if we happen to break on down further i'm looking for it to come on down

here to about 3.6 cents that's at 61.8 or even uh 3.1 and a half cents here the 70 and a half um so if we break down and come there, I'd expect to fill in this gap here coming down to one of those two targets. But instead, if we can break out higher, I'm looking for that 14.225 kind of area. It's a big move. I see Casper up there. Listen, I don't know anything about it except for that it's all in my comments and yeah that's why i brought it up then i looked recently i was like wow this thing actually uh it went up it's got some legs there right yeah yeah so um uh kind of look at this is a one two three four five in here gives us a four it's a 38 two pullback as you can see here so that's perfect you know uh three wave pullback here for a wave four

uh and so you know if this counts correct here we should you know we we generally have a wave five target up there at around uh 0.07096 uh at least uh it could overextend to the r5 pivot up here at around uh zero eight one six four but uh i would expect it to kind of get up here at least to that zero seven zero nine six um you know on a breakout higher here to finish off that fifth wave uh heading up there now it doesn't mean it has to be one of those things you need to see it go into price discovery first so well i mean right now if this count is correct then that's what i expect um you, right now, if this count is correct, then that's what I expect. You know, right now I'm looking at this as a three and a four. So as long as that wave four holds, that's my wave five target. You know, wave four could turn into

a triangle. You know, it could turn, I don't know if this counts as an ABC here, this could be a flat. So you get five waves back down here and then it breaks out higher. But ultimately, you know, if this is wave four here, then generally we're expecting wave five up there at zero seven zero nine six. And it's just kind of holding on until it happens. Right. I just love that you're not afraid of all coins right now. You got any others? Well, I mean, you know, trying to find something for people to look at. Yeah. I mean, listen, it's this is not this is this is the down down downest part of the entire four-year cycle right now for everything so it's it's hard to get excited about trades yeah so i've got um i've got maker here um you can see that we're hovering here around the

uh around shared that before and we're up so i'll take that yeah yeah i mean so we had a you know a rally up and pull back rally rally up, pull back. I mean, it's been, you know, we hit this slightly higher low here, but the pull back on this one, you know, is beautiful. You know, it came right back to previous resistance as support there, and here we are. So once we break it at about 1370, my initial target is going to be that 1675 area. I don't necessarily think that'll that,

that has to be the end of the rally, but that's just from here right now. I want to see it reach there. And then I want to see, okay, I'll take a look back at it and say, well, what's potentially the, uh, the next target on that. Looking good, man. Well, I think that's all the ones you got there and I'm feeling like crap. So I'm going to go, uh, take a nap or something. All right, man. Thank, thank you so much. We'll take a nap or something. All right, man. Thank you so much. We'll see you back next week. Always appreciate the alpha. Sounds good, man. Take care. All right, brother. Thank you. All right, guys, that's all we got. We made it. Made it through

it. I know a little shorter than usual, but hey, guys, sometimes you just got to show up. That's all I got for you. I will see you guys back tomorrow. Peace.