The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Booms, Altcoins Die - Is China Back in Crypto? | Macro Monday

Episode Date: June 30, 2025

Bitcoin is pulling ahead as altcoins slowly lose steam – and China might be preparing a big move back into crypto. I’m joined by Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and Larry Lepard to break down the macro forces shaping markets, from Fed policy and inflation to Trump’s push for lower rates. Don’t miss this high-stakes Macro Monday – like, subscribe, and stay ahead of the next big shift! Dave Weisberger: https://x.com/daveweisberger1 Mike McGlone: https://x.com/mikemcglone11 Lawrence Lepard: https://x.com/lawrencelepard ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities! 👉https://archpublic.com/ ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #MacroMonday The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Markets continue to fly and Bitcoin is holding strong over $107,000. Where is the recession that we were promised? What is going on with the macro? Of course, while all this is happening, all coins are dying a slow death and China is potentially coming back into crypto. We're going to talk everything macro today with the legends Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and a very apt James Lavish replacement,

Mr. Lawrence LaParte. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. It doesn't seem like markets care very much about anything that's happening around the world geopolitics tariffs, nothing but all time highs with markets, the S&P making an all time high last week, the NASDAQ making an all time high last

week, Bitcoin pushing very close to an all time high and of course, all coins going for all-time lows, which is something worth discussing. I'm gonna go ahead and bring it on the amazing panel right now. We got Lawrence, Larry, Mike, and Dave. Good morning, gentlemen. How are you? Hey, good morning, Scott. How are you guys doing? All right, Mike, I gotta ask you, man.

All-time highs on the S&P, all-time highs on the NASDAQ, Bitcoin a couple percent away. How are you guys framing this? Obviously, I got to ask you, man, all time highs on the S&P, all time highs on the NASDAQ, Bitcoin a couple percent away. How are you guys framing this? Obviously, I know that the sentiment has generally been bearish at Bloomberg when we come on about the morning meetings. How can we frame this? So let's start. I'll start with that with Gina first.

Gina Martin Adams, our equity strategist. She pointed out she thinks stocks are rallying on this tax reform bill, and that's to be passed. She pointed out, she thinks stocks are rallying on this tax reform bill that's to be passed and her analysis is not going to be that bullish, partly because of cap-sets spending is already doing pretty well. She doesn't think it's going to make a difference. Her key quotes were, if the Fed's not easing, it might throw a wrench in the market. The best case is we can get some fiscal tax reform and Fed easing.

Concentration risk, she's quite concerned about 52 stocks basically are representing the vast majority of S&P 500 total returns. And growth for tech stocks, tech outside the U.S. is much stronger. So she's expected risks of rotation outside of the U.S. Estelle Oh, who's filled in for Anna Wong and our economist pointed out the feds not enough confident she's feds not confident enough to change policy rate path. Their call is for one rate cut this year in December. The expectation is June payrolls will kick up to 4.3 percent expect 90k and non-farm, and gains in leisure and hospitality are slowing

down. That's kind of the key issue they're working at. In terms of FX, from Audrey Child Freeman, evidence of the weaker dollar is continuing, expect the dollar to continue to hickorlough. It's moved toward her targets rather quickly. And then I focused on what I think is the healthy bull market in gold that's had a bit of a dip and a healthy bear market in crude oil that's had a bit of a rally. Going back to those trends, I'm afraid that that ratio right now at 50, 50 barrels of WTI crude per one ounce of gold on a year-end basis

would be the highest ever. The highest was 39 in 1933, 19 in 2020. So I'm afraid it can head towards 100 with fundamental backing. Key thing would be if the stock market rolls over. And I also then I pointed out what I see as a pretty enduring bull market gold. If you look at gold ETF holdings, they just popped up to the highest since 2023. And I overlay that with the Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index, which is down 15% in the year, as you mentioned, with alts, and the same level as in 2021. Thank you. All right, Larry, I want to ask you about something specific.

Obviously, he mentioned the Fed. I've been reading your book. This is a soft promotion. You guys should all go buy the big print right here. Larry was kind enough to send it to me about halfway through it. But we have a series of stories here that I think highly relevant to your work. Trump says he wants interest rate cut to 1% with love of Powell resigned, then goes on to say Trump says he'll pick a Fed chair who wants to cut rates. Fed versus Trump on tariffs

impact will soon be put to the test. Listen, the premise of your book obviously is that money's broken and they're gonna print, print, print, print, print. It's coming and Trump's saying the quiet parts out loud, right? I think that's absolutely right. I mean, a lot of moves in the last week in this area. I mean, they talked about, I mean, I think one of the biggest and most interesting moves that they're talking about doing is the idea of appointing a shadow Fed president.

For those who haven't heard of that whole concept, in May, right? In May, Powell's term ends. So he's gone. So Trump can't get him a cut because he's a Democrat and he's fighting Trump and he wants to be known as Volcker. So my sense is I lean towards the Fed not doing anything this year, but who knows? Obviously some breaks are going to do something. But they've got to work around to that. And they're talking about appointing a Fed president. And there was a time, a new Fed chairman, there was a time when they were saying it might come as rapidly as in the next few weeks. Although, the cent walked that back the other day.

He said, no, no, no, it's probably kind of October-ish timeframe. So, you know, and obviously they're going to appoint somebody who's extremely favorable to them. And I think what they've decided to do is pivot. I mean, they've kind of come to recognize that, gee, growth has to exceed our rates. And even if that's inflationary, they're going to take the inflationary pain to keep things going. I think that's why the stock market is an all-time new high.

And I think that's why they are going to do that. And when the market becomes aware of them doing that, it's going to front run the Fed. And so even if the Fed isn't going to raise rates this year or even into next May, if they have a promise that come May they're going to have ZERP or 1% and a lot of money printing behind it in terms of QE, that might be enough to keep the market feeling good and continue to press these new highs. So to me that's an enormous development. I mean there's a, I reached with it this morning and Trump said something about, well guys, you know, this big beautiful bill obviously is trending a lot, but you know we're gonna make it up in

growth. And it's really interesting to watch the way the whole story has evolved from Doge to, you know, to, hey we're gonna grow our way out of it. And okay, maybe you can grow your way out of it, but you can't grow your way out of it without inflation in my estimation. So to me, that's the big story right now. I mean, yeah, really quick, David, just before you jump in, because, yeah, it's right. But that's why, I mean, Trump said this on Truth Social,

I think yesterday, for all cost-cutting Republicans, of which I am one, remember, you still have to get reelected. Don't go too crazy. We'll make it up all up times 10 with growth more than ever before. So I was going to mention that post, but I also want to mention a story that was the front page of the New York Post, at least on the online edition, which has a picture of

Powell, Fed Chair Jerome Powell accused of lying to Congress over a $2.5 billion Palace or Versailles. And there's a picture of Powell CGI to look like Pinocchio with his nose out. Now, yes, you can dismiss this as being the New York Post and being Rupert Murdoch, but where there's smoke, there's fire.

And look, there's no way in hell this guy makes it to the end of his term. There's just no way. So I don't know where Polymarket is. I don't know if I feel like making bets with people, but no way. They're going to push them out. But understand, they don't need to push them out now.

They're gonna wanna push them out in the fall toward the winter because what they've wanted, and I've been saying it on this program for people who have been listening for two years now, or not for two years, since the beginning of this year at least, is that, yeah, they never want the stock market to go down and they don't want the economy to go down, but what they really want is the economy to look good and start booming as we go start approaching the election in the midterm elections. Well, what does that mean?

That means they want to see the economy printing big GDP numbers and people feeling flush with cash come early next summer. If Powell stays till May, probably not going to get enough of an effect because there's a lag from any Fed action toward the economy. So net, I would expect to see things happening and being shaken up toward the end of the year. And I think all the stars are aligning here. Now, you know, it's hard to read political tea leaves. But when you start seeing things like this, you know, it's unfortunate how this has been working in politics and not just national politics, but it's real. You don't get stories accusing one of the

most powerful people in the country of lying to Congress, which by the way is a jailable offense. You don't see this if there's not going to be enormous amounts of pressure. These things are tactical. And so it's important to understand that there's this crap going on. Now, the other thing to understand is that, you know, Bascent and forget Trump, but Bascent for sure has been very clear, Doge notwithstanding, that the best thing that Doge could do, and Musk actually said the best thing Doge could do was decrease regulation to incentivize growth.

That narrative, I mean, I've talked about it, but other people have talked about it. That's been the narrative. And so that's what they're trying to do. That's what they want to do. I can't tell you how much disdain. I can't sum up the amount of disdain for putting everything into one quote big beautiful bill. I know why they're doing it because of reconciliation, but who the hell knows what they're doing, right?

I don't know how many people have read the whole thing. It took them 20 hours to read it yesterday or something, 16 hours, 17 hours. I don't know. What I do know is everything when I listen to Mike, I keep thinking there's a complete lack of understanding the denominator, except for one metric which I listen to Mike, I keep thinking there's a complete lack of understanding the denominator, except for one metric, which you mentioned Mike,

which I think is really important. You wanna use the price of oil in gold, do the same thing with the S&P, do the same thing with many other things. And all of a sudden it doesn't look nearly as crazy because what's happened is effectively the effectively the dollar to give you a plug Larry the dollar is melting because we're printing more of them and you can't print as much you know gold is elastic to price but it's not it's not

incredibly elastic an asteroid hasn't been mined yet so the truth is that that you know you really do need to look at these things that way. Now, we do want to talk about alt at some point today, Scott, because I think there are some things that have happened, which kind of explain Bitcoin dominance a little bit more within the crypto world. But from a macro point of view, all the moves you're seeing are just, we are printing and we are trying to push for growth. And that's going to cause differences in what assets go up and what assets in real terms languish. I'm not sure anything in nominal terms is gonna languish if we're gonna continue to inflate.

Okay, but altcoins should be pretty far out on the risk on curve. And when you're seeing markets make all time highs, you should see a risk on sentiment and those things rising. Well, look, I'm gonna get hate mail for this. I don't care. The truth is that when you buy when investors willing to pay the market cap of circle, the way they are today, or because at least they know that whatever Circle makes, they get.

No one can explain that. There are all these stories over the weekend. Ethereum is going to be used for this. Ethereum is going to be used for that. Ethereum is a $200 billion asset that apart from self-providing yield in itself being used by, for people who stake Ethereum, we don't know what the real demand curve for Ethereum is going to be. It's like I have this argument with XRP holders all the time. And by the way, I own XRP. So, I mean, I don't know a lot of it, but I own some of it. I continue to struggle. XRP people, they sit there and they say,

oh great, we're gonna have the lawsuit go away. Like that should matter for XRP. Let's be exceedingly clear here. There in my mind, the relationship between Ripple Labs remaining lawsuit at the SEC and XRP the token is fundamentally zero. Should be. It should be asked.

There's a company that makes money and then there's a token that, XRP, the token could go to zero with Ripple being a successful company. And that, I don't know. And the other way around, XRP. But the point is Ripple Labs making money doesn't help the token, it's in escrow, right?

They have their schedule. None of that is being impacted. The only reason that case impacted XRP in the old days was because XRP was being delisted from exchanges and XRP was being called a security. Well, that's not really a risk right now. And all the machinations going on in this case have to do with what happens if you trade an asset, if you sell an asset to fund a company before it's on exchange by direct sales, this has nothing to do with the token. And yet people talk about it. That's what goes on in the altcoin world. The actual buyers and traders of most altcoins have absolutely

no idea how financial markets work. I mean, I'm sorry, I just insulted a lot of people, but it's insane to me how people get, they get all excited about stories that don't matter. I mean, I wanna understand in Ethereum, it's if everything is built on Ethereum, what percentage of the revenues of the network will end up in the hands of Ethereum holders? That's what I wanna know.

And if the number, don't shrug your shoulders because I own Ethereum and I'm wondering that myself. I want to know. And if the number, don't shrug your shoulders because I own Ethereum and I'm wondering that myself. I agree with you. What's that percentage? Is it going to be, is 200 billion a good value, a fundamental fair value for that? Maybe, maybe it's a hundred billion. Maybe it's two trillion.

I literally don't know. But I think most altcoins can't answer that question. They can't answer the question that if everything goes right, what is the value to the token holder? There's literally one coin that I know that you understand that you can fundamentally value, and that's Bitcoin. And that is as a replacement slash digital version of gold and beyond. And we could talk about why that makes sense. I still think it's trading in a 90 plus percent discount. None of that stuff has changed. But when you look at most altcoins, you can't answer that question.

Now, there are those, some of which people you don't like, but they do a good job of explaining certain things that can talk about a lot of altcoins and say, okay, well, this one has this potential. You know, you know, David Sachs famously said that about BitTensor and I own some BitTensor and I've watched it go, where are we? 330. It's been as high as 450, you know, so it's all you have to know is that even

the ones that even the tokens that supposedly have ecosystems second return value to holders are Languishing why because people don't believe it meanwhile circles. What's the market cap right now? What's it should I look? Higher than the value of USDC at the top, I think right I mean, you know Yeah 60 so it's, yeah, it's 60. So it's more than 10 X what less than half a year ago was considered to be a good sale price in the private markets.

Now, you know, would you start talking about throwing away 10 X's with kind of verve and panache, like, ah, 10 X who cares? That's not how financial markets work. I mean, you know. It's a, yeah, we gotta move on from that. But I mean, it's even 10X what it was selling for the, or at the peak, it was 10X what it was selling for

the day before the IPO in Robinhood. Right. So not even just a year ago as financial markets. Mike and Larry, I wanna hear your takes on the altcoin market as well. Mike, I know that you believe they have to go to zero, so they're well on their way. I think it's well described. What Dave well described is what happens near speculative frenzies in massive bubbles. What we have now, 17.9 million cryptocurrencies.

Okay, a lot of it's bullshit. Just unlimited supply. We get that. Massive speculation, we get it. It works when you have a U.S. economy GDP at almost two times, or stock market almost two times, 2.1 times right now GDP. Yeah, that stuff works. But there'll be, it's not an if, it's a when you get a purge in this.

Now we can maybe sustain this for a while, hopefully till midterms is what the Trump administration is trying to do. But the bottom line is it's very silly to expect the Fed to ease when you have a massive speck of the frenzy going on in equities and cryptocurrencies, which is pumping up inflation. That's just typically when you take the punch bowl away. So that's kind of a silly thing that Trump's fighting. To me, I see that's where the end game is.

I keep tilting over to gold. What's gold been telling me for almost six months now by beating Bitcoin, by taking off, and even with bond yields dropping lately, I think this is the whole of the end game where we have maybe a number on Thursday will finally make people realize that the economy is slowing down, all the signs are there, and that we will get the recession that we didn't get three years or two years ago. But in cryptos, it's just a massive, which no one would understand what it is. It's a massive casino, it's wonderful to trade.

Remember, I came from a highly leveraged trading environment. It's good to do that. And yeah, I get Bitcoins different. I've always been a fan of that. I think Circle's an awesome example of how revolutionary the technology is tokenization. But we all have seen this before. When you have massive new technologies like this, you get the bump, you get the purge, then you can buy Amazon about seven bucks

when it's supposed to be going down there, and that's when you're supposed to buy. We're still not there yet. We're still at this stage where we've had a few purges, but we're not so excessive right now that you're supposed to say thank you. And if you double your money, take some profits and never do. So here, I like to end with this is in 2020, when Mr. Saylor discovered Bitcoin and got really bullish and less of us were already bullish and it was getting beat up and it was down 10,000, that was great. It's gone to 10X. That's been a wonderful return.

Now it's at 100,000 and we see a lot of yelling, you're supposed to be selling. And so far that's been working out in favor of gold and I expect that to continue despite the stock market record high. So basically you need the stock market to keep going up for all the alts and it's not. It's your sign I think that everything's going to tilt lower eventually and we still have it nowhere. And the first half, let's see how that second half works out. If we can stay here in the stock market, I think to also continue to leak the biggest

trade of this, I think, maybe our entire careers. If that stock market just starts doing what it has done in history, tilts slower, massive deflation kicks in. It's already happened in China. We've seen it happen in Japan just a couple of decades ago. And also showing that tilt. Lots unpacked there, Larry. Yeah, I'll make it quick.

I mean, I'm a maxi. I haven't seen a compelling use case for any altcoin. I'm sure they exist, but I haven't seen them. And I don't own any of them, never would own them or touch them. I think everybody should avoid them like the plague. And I think they're all going to zero. So-

It's interesting in the context of that, I think that's a fair assessment for many people. And I can totally understand it. People invest in different things for different reasons. But Mike, the speculative bubble on all coins, considering how long they've been dropping ended four years ago. So yes, we've had these like quick bubbles

where meme coins go crazy and all of those things, but this isn't even like they need to die or they've just died. I mean, they've just been I mean, these things are on life support for, you know, half a decade almost. It feels like most of them. Yeah, we haven't seen I think the real pain meaning when you see Dogecoin at worth $25,000 total market cap versus 25 billion. I'm not kidding. This is what happens.

I mean, it's the way life works. And those of us who've traded this for a long time and you have things that are silly and excessive and you see market cap to GDP that goes to one to one, eventually they'll go maybe at least 1.5 to one. This will happen. It's just a normal little recession that always has happened. And particularly, it's the end game I'm worried about. The key thing is we still have this sense that the Fed's going to ease with inflation

high because our president said he should, and the stock market at all-time highs. That's just oxymoronic to what I've ever seen in my entire career, almost 40 years in the business, and that's why I still stick with gold. Well, understand the reason they're talking about easing is because they're trying to push the accelerator on the financialization playbook. And by the way, this is both parties. So this isn't even political.

This is a very simple thing. Consumer inflation vis-a-vis asset inflation. They want asset inflation and they're willing to put up with more consumer inflation to get it, but would strongly prefer that things go into asset inflation. That's what they're looking to do. Now, as far as investing is concerned,

obviously, if you're investing in something that's a hard asset like Bitcoin or gold, then you want this because it will go up. I mean, that's just simple, right? It will be a higher and effectively from a gold perspective, you need to be levered or something and Bitcoin is not that it's levered, it's that it's trading at a discount. But the fact is that their belief is that the rest of the world has interest rates that are dramatically lower. They've actually been lowering, ours are not.

And they look at this and they say, well, where's the money gonna go? And that's the big thing. They really want to turbocharge asset inflation. And you've heard me say it. They literally have to, to Dave or else the whole edifice collapses I mean it's that that's the point so but but it isn't I am NOT a proponent of this I want to be very clear here I think that the reason

for the wealth gap is because of this you know is is basically a combination of regulation and but more, this loose monetary policy causes the literal rich to get richer, right? You know, it is absolutely the way it is. And you know, if you combine that with, you know, socialist impulses like we're seeing in New York, which is, I mean, it's amazing the cope that people have. They do not understand. I mean, obviously, the mayor of New York

doesn't have nearly the power that, you know, that people think, but it is still, you know, unbelievable, considering the fact that in 5,000 years of human history, there's literally not one example, not a single one, where moving in that direction has not, has failed to decrease, to increase misery. It has failed every single time. Yet it's one of those ideas that sounds great. And so people look at it. And that's also a factor of the same thing, right? You know, when people get rich, when you see spectacles like a billionaire taking over a city, one of the most popular tourist cities in the world, that feeds envy. The politics of envy are incredibly powerful. You see these things and you have to understand these are the trends that are going on.

Mike, when you talk about the, you know, they're going to be flooding, they're going to figure out a way to cut rates. It's just that simple. Unless consumer inflation reaccelerates. And oh, by the way, if you're right about oil, and I think you are in real terms, maybe not nominal terms, I think you absolutely are, then real inflation will be restrained, because energy is such an important factor in real inflation. I mean, that's the real question is like, you know, what has all this done? I mean, gas prices have ticked up recently, I noticed.

I mean, I don't know what's the data on that. I mean, I just see locally it is up by, you know, a few percent, but not a lot. The average price is about a little less than $3.20, but the only way to really compare that is from the year ago at the same levels because this is summer driving season They're down at almost 10% My call is they're gonna go down to two bucks. It's not profound We've got dropped in their two bucks three times in the last 20 years and each time involved the recession and one key Prequisite was a drop in the US stock market. I mean a drop which stays down not just for a couple days

That's my call and still sticking with it and obviously US stock market. I mean a drop that stays down, not just for a couple of days. That's my call. And still sticking with it. And obviously the stock market is still higher. But the key thing to remember here is what you said has happened. We've got to the point where I think it's the end game of lifting risk assets, throwing money at the system, making everything go up. And now I think we're tilting towards that end game. That's why I still stick with gold and long bonds.

Now long bonds are just maybe starting to ticket. They're the most, the cheapest ever versus gold. And I only go back a few years. Someone needs to put on mute because I think Larry's typing. But it's my point is what we're talking about here is what has already happened. We've had the biggest money pump in history. Now we're tilting towards the end game.

It's just gonna be hard and difficult for people to realize it. So here's key fact. So we have US housing, average home is the highest ever versus income. Okay, well that's been, okay, that's gonna revert. Just question when and how. How much higher you're gonna get then.

I think the bottom line, and then of course, I might point out the highest in about 100 years, US stock market versus the rest of the world's just starting to revert lower versus GDP potentially hasn't revert, can it tick down, taking higher? And I think the biggest problem is it's just timing. The Trump administration is trying to do all these things that their timing is as bad as it was for Herbert Hoover. Sorry, but this is the way cycles work. We've already reached that apex. That's why prove it wrong. That's my point is, good way for gold to really have a problem this year.

If the stock market stays strong, interest rates stay high, gold should get hit. And to me, it's more likely that we're gonna realize by the end of the year that we're gonna have that tilt lower. And the key thing also, remember, with crude oil, is it's the technology technology replacing it every day cryptos are part of that but I just look at from the macro from a commodity standpoint that there is well here's one thing I might I was out for a week and

my thing the first thing I want to come back and write about was gold crosses the key thing they think about the gold is the gold Bitcoin index is is gold Bitcoin cross is not showing Endorsement of the stock rally showing a problem you look at gold versus a stock market it had breakout and now it's bounced now It's I think it's going to continue and the key one the most significant one is gold versus long bonds I've been saying it for two years, and I've been wrong I think gold is gonna pass that deflationary torch to long bonds. The point is remember, it's always happened in history. When you get this kind of inflation, you always get the deflation.

It's happening in China. Most of the rest of the world's having issues and they're having to stimulate. To me, this is where we're at the end game is that the Fed stock, Trump and Besson gets it. There's one thing I also want to mention from our morning meeting. I guess Trump made some comments recently about not to issue any coupons longer than nine months. And I think, yeah, I thought Dave might've caught that. And obviously it's the key point.

They want yields lower. So the bottom line is to get yields and rates lower in the US is one simple little thing, just a little backup in the stock market. say 10% and stays down for a while. And I'm pretty sure that US 10-year is going to go back to 3%. It stays strong. Stock market stays strong. You're not going to get those yields to go lower, maybe very reluctantly, but it can happen quick by midterms. Get that little correction, stay down, everything goes lower. Crude oil goes at 40, at 40 gold goes at 4000. And who knows what stock market does? I mean, what mind blowing though, I think this is the

classic markets can stay irrational longer than you can sit in stay solvent, right? Because stocks have shrugged off a couple wars. Some that people believed were going to be World War Three just a week ago. Tariffs, I mean, remember those? I remember. Fed versus Trump on tariff impact will soon be put to the test, okay, but here you go. Trump deals poised to fall short of sweeping trade reforms.

We're only a few days away from the deadline where we're supposed to have trade deals with everyone or we have these massive tariffs kick in. I mean, Larry, why don't markets care? Well, that's a great question. you know, tariffs kick in. I mean, Larry, why don't markets care? Well, that's a great question. I mean, so one, because Trump has indicated he might back off of those tariffs. And two, because, you know, everybody thinks

they're gonna hold the feet to the accelerator on all these growth, pro-growth policies, including deregulation, et cetera. And three, because, you know, buying the dip is a strategy that's worked over and over and over again, and it's gonna be very, very hard to disabuse people of that notion.

Although I'm with Mike, I mean, it feels to me like we're carving out a top here in the stock market. There's a very good pod that just came out with Adam Taggart and Michael Oliver. And Michael's a technician who does some really good work, and his momentum indicators suggest that we're kind of carving a long top. And maybe we go on and hit some new highs here.

I mean, this kind of reminds me of 99, summer of 99. And things didn't really top until early March of 2000. And then they really didn't start to fall in a big way until 2001. So, you know, there's a lot of money in this economy and it's sloshing around. And I mean, one of the things that Doug Nolan does something called credit bubble bullet and he showed on the most recent Z1 report all the growth in debt. I mean, people are just continuing to take on leverage because they feel like it's all good

and leverage is going to pay to own these assets. So I think it's a bad strategy. And I pretty much share Mike's view on most everything except the long bond. I think that's nickels in front of a steamroller. With respect to what Dave said earlier about getting Powell out of there, I don't know. I mean, yeah, they're attacking him politically in a lot of ways, but my sense is he is not going anywhere. He is dug in and he's going to hold on to his ground. And we'd rather go down with the ship. Now, you know, if something does break and there's a chance that something will break, then he will start to cut. But I think there's a good chance we have him around for a while. It's a really fascinating mix and difficult to figure out how this is going to play. But I think until proven otherwise, we have to assume the trend in the stock market for now is up. But I wouldn't be buying it, not at these valuation levels. I think the easy

trade is gold and Bitcoin or the easy trade are gold and Bitcoin. I like the way you describe it Larry and maybe Scott you probably get this too is there's only one way to stop this psychology and I've only seen it minor in my life I've only read about it in history in 19 1929, and I was part of what happened in Japan, is the only way this stops is if prices have to stop going up. People have to understand, okay, well, yes, I enjoy meeting some 30-somethings a lot,

I met this week and I have a 32-year-old son who just got engaged, I met a lot of 30-somethings, and they have not seen this yet, they're so used to, oh, everything just goes up, the government's gonna save you, and that's why I like to point out out is you get to limit in life and you have to realize that there is bear markets and there will be times when buying it. The time to buy typically is when people give up and buying the dip. So we'll hit that stage.

I hope I live to see it. I hope it's sooner or later because we can have a chance. But that's the thing. It doesn't stop until it stops. And sometimes can have a chance. But that's the thing. It doesn't stop until it stops. Sometimes it takes a trigger. Like I remember 9-11 hopping in a car and driving from New York to Chicago because we couldn't go to our office in New York. We didn't have work from home then. And I was way overweight bonds then.

But here the key thing I want to push back a little bit, you and Larry, when people push back on, like you said, Penny's in front of a steamer from a long bond is let's look at the rest of the world. So look at the long bond and see if it stays above 5%. Now we saw there was massive duration buying in May at 5%, still happening. You were able to lock in, I think that was a big buy opportunity and potential sell for Bitcoin. But look at the iterations of it going above 5%. That's a major headwind for the US stock market when you can have risk-free returns. Yes,

let me finish. And also the rest of the world will have, it's a major, what it does for the dollar, strengths of the dollar to some extent. But it's a major pressure for risk assets because of that competition. And then it's compared to the rest of the world. You look at the average of the top three major countries in the world, China, Japan, and Germany, all major exporters, Germany almost 50% to the US, their average of their bond yields is below 2%. So to me, this is why I look at it, it's the steamroller the other way. If you're short long bonds, obviously you're paying that coupon.

But what happens if for yields to go up is very negative for a risk assets typically. Mike, I don't disagree with you at all as a trade. I really don't. I mean, in a three to six to maybe nine month window, I don't disagree with you. But I think that I'm looking through that to the policy response, which is as we all know in this system, they cannot afford deflation of any way, shape or form.

And it takes deflation for that bond to rally. And I think that the policy response is just so obviously massive and overwhelming. And that's the point at which everybody goes, oh my God, they can never stop printing. It's Lin Alden it's it's Lynn Alden's, you know, nothing stops this train. And and at that point, right. At that point, basically, what happens is, you know, that we get a meltup in in sound money assets and a meltdown, a continued meltdown in bonds. But I think your analysis is right. I agree with you. I mean, I agree with you on a short term basis.

I it's fascinating, though, how out of sync we are with the rest of the world. I just I wasn't aware of this, but if somebody pointed out to me, I was just at this show, and do you realize that in Switzerland right now, they're at zero? Yeah, they have zero interest rates in Switzerland right now. It's like, wow. And I was being pitched somebody who would loan me some money against my Bitcoin,

that 200 basis points over zero. I was like, what? You know? Really? Yeah. Minus 1.13% two-year note yield in Switzerland. Minus? Lending against Bitcoin right now is like

minus 1.13%. Minus 0.13, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, well, it's a Swiss bank. And, you know, obviously you got to, you know, there are all kinds of custody issues and everything else, but the point is that there are places where money is a lot cheaper than in the United States. And Mike, I'm very much aware of what's going on in

China. I agree with you. I think you're right. We need a deflationary. I mean, given how much debt we've taken on given how big this bubble is the the backside of this bubble is massive deflation. But I also think the backside of this bubble is the big print. So, you know, and how those two interact with one another, that's what we're all going to try and sort through. It's very tough. So Larry, I have a very hard time understanding to reconcile the last two statements.

I mean, I get everything you're saying, except for the backside of the bubble is massive deflation. Is your expectation that it's deflation because the currency has failed and it has to be, we're gonna do a Brazil where we're gonna do, have a new currency on the backside of it. I mean, because if you're constantly printing, by definition, because of the denominator,

you have massive monetary inflation. I mean, you- Well, I agree, don't know, I'm just, I think what Mike is pointing out is that all the debt we've created, when it starts to unwind and go the other way, I mean, debt is just bringing consumption forward. That is an enormously deflationary thing. And, you know, this is an enormous bubble. It's the everything bubble. It's absolutely everywhere. And if it really got rolling to the downside,

there would be massive deflation. But yes, what you're saying is what I say as well and agree with, which is the policy response will be overwhelming printing in order to prevent that because we've seen this pattern over and over again. So Mike, I'm with you, but I think it's timing. And I'd be curious to know, I mean, and that so you so you buy these long bonds. How long do you think that trade works for?

So that's that's a good point is so the key thing is that I really appreciate your book. And the only problem is we've had that happen. The biggest print in history has happened. And by far by every measure in 2020, 2021, 22 and 2020, 2021 and we had the pump, we had the inflation and the biggest thing we found out is what a great way to get rid of a president is have inflation and what a great way to elect a president is have them endorse cryptocurrencies. Hey, we did that.

It's this I can't wait to write the books about this. Hope I live long enough to write the history and how it's gonna work out the key. The key thing is No, this is one of those things that this is a I mean my I'm making a lifetime call here based on the facts of where things are we just When I can say that, you know gold versus crude gold versus silver go SMP SMP GDP are at multi-decade extremes and potentially tilting the other way as unemployment is picking up, as credit card delinquencies are picking up, as the housing market is rolling over, all this stuff that was supposed to happen

a few years ago but it was supported by massive fiscal spending and the biggest distortion in our lifetimes. This is going to be, to me, simply back to the trend that kicked in since 1980. Lower yields, pretty significant deflationary forces from technology, which is rapidly accelerating. You can see that crude oil, which is being replaced by technology. Yes, we're going to get a print. But we've already learned the lessons of too much printing, and maybe we'll get some rationalizations like, hey, maybe we should come out of this a little more organically because the last time we did it we had too much

inflation and that's the difference from every single time we've printed. Maybe they print but it doesn't it doesn't do enough to arrest the deflation. Well it's it's that high I mean it's when you have the world's largest economy at the most ever versus GDP in terms of stock market capillation yeah it's the biggest ever. Now we've seen the prints. Like we said, what bottomed the deflationary environment in 1933 was the US debase versus gold.

OK, what helped Japan debase, bottom deflation, they've been debasing forever. And these are the kind of things. But my point is you have to have that first iteration. Is right now we're stuck in that stage of silliness where people are expecting the Fed to ease despite we have record highs in the stock market. I'm sorry. They made that mistake last time.

He's being nice about it. They cut too early. Bond yields said they were cutting too early, and look where we are now. We're stuck in this inflation sticky. We're at record highs, and we have a a president just needs everything to keep going higher. And that's why I think you see like, just as of today, the gold ETF holdings after four years outflows just reached the highest since 2023. And central banks and it's in top of central banks buying too. I want to slightly pivot pivot to other people who are buying. Dave, if you have a comment,

go ahead. But I want to talk about the specifically about treasury companies and sailor and what's going on here. So let's start with sailor. Another 4980 Bitcoin at 597 325. I remember not long ago talking about Wow, sailor really gonna get to a half a million. He's about to be at 600,000 Bitcoin spent another 531 million. meta planetPlanet buys a thousand more Bitcoin. We have BACT, if you remember them. BACT is now talking about buying a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin. Obviously, these are headlines every single day. A, I want to talk about Bitcoin treasury companies because we haven't talked about

it with Larry, but I want to dig into this perspective from Rick Edelman, who's a $300 billion investment advisory firm, Edelman Financial Engines, says the traditional 60-40 is dead. He says that conservative investors should now have a 10 percent crypto allocation. I would change that to Bitcoin. Moderate clients should place 25 percent in crypto,

and aggressive clients should allocate 40 percent. He says it's no longer a speculative position. He said that it's outperformed everything for the last 15 years. And the kicker here, the real question, are you a fiduciary serving your client's best interests? Are you simply an order taker avoiding difficult conversations? So wrap that all up.

We have obviously a lot of companies either jumping on a hype wave or deeply believing that they need to have Bitcoin on their balance sheet and or financial engineer their balance sheet to get more Bitcoin. But then we literally have huge financial advisors starting to say 6040 is dead and Bitcoin should be replacing it. He said, well, there are two completely separate things where escape velocity has been reached. And they both matter enormously to this conversation. And I'll start with AI, but it's AI and Bitcoin.

So let's talk about what do I mean by that? I mean, if there's anybody who believes that productivity for consumer prices isn't about to be impacted by AI, they're not paying attention. We had goods impacted by technology, they're not paying attention. We had goods impacted by technology and outsourcing and so when we printed like crazy over the last three decades, it became financialization. We talk about this all

the time. That asset prices, house prices, things, whatever, are all up. One of you guys called it an everything bubble, whatever. But the reason consumer prices didn't go up was because we could outsource to cheaper places and manufacture at a fraction of the cost or extract at a fraction of the cost. That's technology. But the one thing that didn't come down was services, except for that's about to mean, you know, if 10 years from now people are still spending close to, in today's dollars, $100,000 a year to put their kids in college and effectively party for four years and be fed the bullshit that teaches 50% of the college kids on America that think socialism is a better economic system, when AI could be done with, you know, doesn't have to be pure AI sitting in front of a computer, but AI augmented teaching, you know, is so much better. You're, you know, I'll take the other side of that bet all day long. I think that anyone who makes that bet is, it's crazy. You're going to have country clubs for kids. Sure. You want to socialize them great But you don't have to spend money on Harvard and Yale to be you know to be indoctrinated at the same time

Anyone talk to dr. Donnish about what AI is doing for medicine and you start going down every single possible service It's going to be deflationary in the sense of forget the monetary side, it will be decreasing costs. So that it is reach escape velocity. There's no question in anyone's mind anymore. This is going to happen. Now why am I using that analogy with Bitcoin? Well Bitcoin, if it gets to critical mass, i.e. where is Bitcoin going?

The first stop on the Bitcoin train, first stop, I mean, it may very well stop there, although I don't think it will, will be to coexist on a pari pusu basis with gold's monetary value. And we could talk about what those numbers are, but roughly speaking, it's 10x today. This is the view of most of the administration. This is the view of Larry Fink. This is, you know, from BlackRock. This is the view of quite a few smart people. And so all these Bitcoin treasury companies, they're effectively saying, listen, you know, I can buy this thing that's at a 90% discount and that will then hold its value versus inflating and debasing dollars. Why wouldn't I? And so that's what they're doing. Meanwhile, the people who are selling Bitcoin to them at this price, which is why we've had lower volatility, and I've been gently

chiding Mike over the weekend on X about Bitcoin's volatility being much lower, and its beta being much lower, is because the people who got into Bitcoin saying, beating their chest saying, we're going to change the world. This is great. Where does this are saying, well, hold on, wait a minute. I'm rich. I can afford, uh, to, you know, to, to live and to buy a house. I can afford to take vacations. I got afforded to buy in some of the cases, private jets, right? Why the hell wouldn't I sell here? Because I didn't really believe this was going to go up this high. I just kind of, you know, it just kind of happened and I'm here.

And this has been going on for months now We've been talking about it But it's it's the data is overwhelming that original Bitcoin sellers are the ones who are selling The problem is is I don't know how much more there is and we'll see how that plays out But the reason that all these Bitcoin Treasury companies are happening is because it's becoming you know, a guy, you know, Epsilon Theory, you know, Ben Hunt writes this newsletter that I love to read because it talks about, you know, what's going on in common knowledge and how things are happening in the media. But Bitcoin becoming digital gold is becoming common knowledge.

When it reaches that, it will happen much quicker than people think. And that's why people are doing this. And if it happens, then every Bitcoin treasury company that actually buys Bitcoin down at these prices is going to be worth much more than they otherwise would have been. And if it doesn't happen, okay, well, then Bitcoin may fail. But that's the issue. Will it fail? And has it reached that escape velocity?

I think it has. And so that to me is where you're at. Now, does that not mean that a Bitcoin treasury company that buys it when Bitcoin has already reached? Because you'll hear it. When Bitcoin first reaches gold, you will hear, oh, well, gold only covers two ways before that. You will start hearing all the people self-justifying why it needs to go, you know, a sailor is already doing it, right? You know, Bitcoin going to a million is one thing. Bitcoin going to what is his latest thing?

17 million or whatever number. How many companies could easily get wrecked if Bitcoin gets to this price and they pile in then and then there's a normal correction. Well, now there's more leverage in the system. And so you'll start seeing those things. So, you know, what's fascinating is how many Bitcoiners look at what's happening now,

which is clearly the beginning of a trend, not the middle or even close to the end, and saying, oh God, the last time we saw this, it all fell apart, so I wanna get out now. To me, that's what is interesting. I mean, Larry, you're smiling, but you know The Bitcoin Treasury companies you have I'm trying to I'm trying to get my hand out here to say you have the firm hand on The tiller at the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund. I mean you guys are like, yeah, you know guys we've been doing this for a while

We're smarter about it You're muted Larry. You're muted. There you Larry you're on mute your been an enormous positive impact on Bitcoin, Bitcoin price and the treasury market. My only cautionary note is just that these things are clearly worth 1x, they're MNAV, they're clearly worth what the Bitcoin is. One could argue that from time to time they could be worth a little less than 1x and that's in particular because you know is management adding value and management subtracting salaries and so you know if I mean owning Bitcoin and cold storage is still in my view the preferred way to play Bitcoin and there's plenty of

upside in doing that. You take a company as Saylor points out a company can do things that an individual can't do it can issue securities securities, use them to buy Bitcoin. And so what you're really doing is you're introducing Bitcoin leverage, you know, to the bet. And that's okay, within reason. I think Saylor's been modest in the way he's done it. I mean, I think his debt is about 15% of the underlying value of his Bitcoin. The Bitcoin could fall in half in price and he'd still be okay. And some of the debt isn't callable, and some of it's in the form of preferreds, which I think is kind of brilliant. So my view is that Sailor has actually done a pretty good job of financially engineering, you know, kind of a, you know, a levered bet on Bitcoin through his company. There've been a

lot of people who've jumped into the space and are copying it doingos and I think it'll be a mix of outcomes in terms of how well they do it, how aggressive they are, what kind of debt they take on, how much they pay themselves in salaries, what their multiple mNav is etc etc and you know my my caution to most people I mean I think I saw somebody on Twitter said and this is not a knock on Dylan and MetaPlanet I think I saw some young guy on Twitter say well yeah I sold him my bitcoin and bought MetaPlanet I thought boy you're some young guy on Twitter say, well, yeah, I sold him my Bitcoin and bought MetaPlanet. I thought, boy, you're really kind of missing the theme here, dude. That's great. Yeah, right? It reminded me very much back in the day when Plan B had a model where they said Bitcoin was at 40 and they said

Bitcoin is going to 150. And some of the young guys were like, great. And Binance would loan them four to one against their underlying Bitcoin, right? They went out they borrowed against it and of course the thing came down and they lost what they had And so, you know, I would only say that leverage kills and so, you know, I just I think it's an area That one has to be careful in and you know If one wants to speculate and leverage Bitcoin have at it But be you know be aware that speculating and leverage Bitcoin is not the same as owning core Bitcoin you know in cold storage they're

two different it's not your it should never be your whole position right you say have at it but have at it with 10% of your exactly you know whatever well it depends on your risk preference right but I mean the guy who sold all his Bitcoin to buy MetaPlanet I was just like oh my god you know dude why did you do that I mean MetaPlanet, I was just like, oh my God, you know, dude, why did you do that? I mean, MetaPlanet might be a fabulous investment. I'm not saying one way or the other. I'm just saying, you know, we haven't seen a bear market in these things.

I don't think bear markets have been outlawed. I think they're, my personal belief is Bitcoin is going to go to somewhere between two and 500, but then it's going to correct 50%. And so we'll have to see how some of these companies that, you know, get too far out over their skis do, with respect to that kind of thing. So look, I'm all in favor of an ecosystem that supports buying and holding more Bitcoin.

I think having Bitcoin as your core treasury asset makes a ton of sense. I really like the ones that have other operating businesses and have cashflow. I mean, Semmler, for example,, has got a business. They're making money. I appreciate you as a business. Yeah. And to me, that's a big positive because that guy can buy, if we have a Bitcoin correction, he's a buyer, not a seller. Whereas some of the other folks might be put into a position

where they're forced to sell Bitcoin to buy back their undervalued stock or do something else. So and the owning the best asset in the world. And by the way, the best asset in the world is gonna perform incredibly well. So don't be, don't F it up and be greedy and try and get two X incredibly well. Recognize that when you take on leverage, you take on risk. Yeah, Larry, my say the problem is a lot of people don't view it as taking on leverage, which blows my mind. Yeah, I don't see that. I mean, it's clearly taking on leverage.

In most cases. Now, you know, in my opinion, like, and Dave, we've discussed this a lot. But you know, there's, there's two kinds of Bitcoin treasury companies, Dave, and I say it's all type, there's the balance sheet companies, Tesla Square, you know, the ones who say, hey, like you said, I, this is a superior treasury asset, as what my money in Bitcoin, at least percentage of it, then there's financially engineering your balance sheet and your

stock price to buy more Bitcoin and traded a huge premium. The bulk of those are getting wrecked. I don't care. I don't know when I'm not saying hold on, not the ones now. Once again, it's going to be the 90% who are buying it, who start doing it at 200,000 who are just hedge funds LARPing is Bitcoin Treasury companies who are gonna puke all their Bitcoin and those notes are gonna go to zero. That's my fear.

Fair enough. Yeah, I don't know what price that happens. I think it's, whether it's two, three, four, five, a million, it doesn't matter. It is, the end is foreordained. It is written in the books, the tablets, you know, I like to read fantasy books. The prophecy is there.

I don't know what the level will be. But if you're asking me, will in fact you see a leverage meltdown from these things? Yes. Is this something to worry about today? No, not unless you're a shareholder of those companies, right? I mean, there's a huge difference between what MicroStrategy is doing, which is intelligent financial engineering that is released right now and what some of these LARPers are doing. You're absolutely right and will do.

I think we're in 1996 or seven relative to the internet bubble. It's like when you saw the Netscape moment and you see all this stuff. The valuations of Bitcoin treasury companies, although meta planets because of the constrained ability to invest in Bitcoin in Japan. It's the only way to get Bitcoin in Japan, yeah. Right, so that's a bit different. But when you're talking about one act,

maybe between one and two times leverage, that's not really gonna scare me. What scares me is people are going, it will ultimately, they will do more. They will do just like what happens in the derivative markets. Why buy my note? You got to buy my note, dude. Not their note.

My note's got to offer better terms. That's right. It's like CIFI out competing for who can offer the most yield on USDC. It's the same thing. I was just looking at something just to be curious. We in Bitcoin all understand that we've looked in our past and we've seen these massive corrections, 50%, 70%, even though the last year the correction was 30%.

I was just looking at Nvidia, which is at its all time high now, right? And Nvidia at its all time high, it's interesting. Over the course, in late 21 to later in 22, it dropped by what, 60%. You know, it then, you know, it's been up and down and saw to 20, 30% corrections. I guess the most recent one was, you know, was, where are we, 138 down to 94. So, you know, 40%. And then we've been on this epic run to its all time high. I mean, it is not, it will surprise me if Bitcoin actually isn't lower volatility than individual stocks like Nvidia, but being that Nvidia is the

world's most profitable company or at least the world's most valuable company. And it's at its all time high. I think it's worth understanding that if you start comparing Bitcoin to that, just on an investment point of view, the difference is, is we all think the fundamentals in Bitcoin are that it's cheap. I know that that gives Mike dyspepsia, but I'll keep saying it. But what's fascinating is how people look at this and they don't go and they look at leverage and they say, Oh, I'm going to leverage.

Are people 10x leveraging on Nvidia? If so, you know,'re gonna get wiped out. You know, it just, literally. Yeah, I wanna let Mike, yeah, I wanna let Mike jump in and wrap that. I just happened to pull up the Nvidia chart when you said that, because I haven't been paying attention.

It went down 44% already this year, and is already back above the all-time high from that low in just over two months almost three months I mean Mike is that 44% drop not just an extremely accelerated version of what you've been warning against this whole time Well, that's a bull market new video as Dave pointed out a very profitable company in a great niche faces significant competition as Jeff points out that'll be an issue but to me it's it's more of an issue that it's part of the Concentration risk of tech and stocks and the key thing you have to look forward to

Yes, it's momentum everything's momentum you buy the dips, but the difference I like to point out with Bitcoin is the nearest certainty from Dave and Larry and some other people that it's going to go up at record highs is where I as a commodity person, sorry, I think of it more as it's a number on the screen. By the way, it is more of a number of screen than things like gold and crude oil. And it's a commodity. There's massive competition. Let me finish.

And everybody seems quite bullish and long and as a commodity guy and back off and say thank you I know once it hit 100,000 that was my threshold I still think gold is a better investment and I think it will be for well and once we get in I'll look forward So I was looking forward to gold ETFs. I'm sorry to Bitcoin ETFs as a bit of a put a peak in the market I stick with that so far you're seeing that with a Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index and now I'm looking forward to a purge to come out in the future again and get as bullish as I did when I was at 10,000. Michael Saylor was liking it.

And right now, sorry, just can't do it. I wanna go down in history as the idiot, fine. I'm happy to take that risk. And if I can write that book from the future to say that that'll say, you know, it was different this time. You weren't supposed to be selling when they're yelling and that's what Bitcoin was in 2025 and 2024. I would love to be able to write that and right now I'm going to take the risk of being the idiot to say, sorry, you're

not supposed to be overweight long this risk asset, you're supposed to be overweight, you're supposed to be underweight long this risk asset, particularly when people at MicroSailor are buying more at record highs. Let me help you on that Mike because it actually is different this time. Let me explain why. We'll let the future define that. No, but let me like a logical argument. But you did already. You told us it's going up. I got it. No, no you didn't. You're not listening. Take a minute and listen, okay? Every single commodity in the world,

when the price goes up, the supply increases. So please don't explain... I wrote about this a decade ago. I got it. It's not safe, the obvious. I get it. It's just overweight, leverage long now. So this particular commodity, when the price goes up, the supply doesn't increase. It doesn't behave like... Again, you're repeating the same thing we wrote about a decade ago decade ago it's not safe to say I get it the problem is

this over weight leverage long now it's leverage long it's just a classic example and there's 17 million of them that's never happened in any commodity I've ever seen I look at the precious metals there's gold and there's only three precious metals it's silver, platinum, platinum competitors. It's a different beast Mike. This is what Wall Street misses. It's a completely different beast. It's different. It's, you know.

Got it, exactly, it's different this time. Good luck with that one. That's why I'm doing that. I'm not disagreeing with you that we can't have a 50% correction. I just don't think we're at the overbought, overleverage point you think we're at. I think that that'll be at 300, 400, 500.

And then we will have 50% correction. So I've made the call early. I still stick with over 100,000 is overbought over leverage. And I'm sticking with gold since we first reached a hundred thousand and December six gold's up 25% bitcoins up 5%. Scott, can I, can I repeat? It's been a few months since I've made it to wrap us up because it's 10 Oh four and I don't want to keep option on the option. I had David Bitcoin is an, everyone. Option on the option. Go ahead, David.

Bitcoin is an option. Price is an option. It's full. It realizes at roughly 80-90 percent of gold's market cap. When you look at options on a commodity, it's very different, especially a commodity that is inelastic, as Larry explained. It is very different, especially a commodity that is inelastic, as Larry explained. It is very different than looking at a mature commodity. You claim that Bitcoin is a mature commodity when virtually all the people who are buying

it believe that it is underpriced. That is not the same thing as something that has had the same price for years. It just isn't. It's going to go up, it's going to go down, it's going to be more volatile, but honestly, to treat it the same is just one thing. David, why would anybody who buys anything think it's not underpriced? It's just a silly thing to say. By the way, anybody who disagrees with it's not going up is dumb.

I'm dumb. That's happy first dumb person. Go up or go down, whatever. Markets are what markets are. I'm just saying when you get these sorts of things, Bitcoin right now on a risk-adjusted basis I think is cheaper than it was when it was at 10,000. That I really genuinely believe. And I genuinely believe it because the risk adjustment is that Bitcoin will die at this point.

And when it is considered a strategic asset by the entire administration, and oh, by the way, don't expect even when the Democrats win because the Republicans implode, or if the Democrats win because the Republicans implode in 2020, don't expect the Democrats to make the mistake of going full on attacking crypto, the anti-crypto army, because then they won't win.

And I think they know that. I think they learned it. So when you have the US political structure supporting an asset and considering it undervalued, that's a very big thing. Fighting that is like fighting the Fed. You don't want to fight forces that have the power. And that's really what's going on here. And so anyway, we can talk about this forever.

You know, there's a this is this is like the argument clinic from Monty Python. This is not an argument. It's just contradiction. No, an argument is a serious, you know, it's like one of my absolute favorite skits in the history of comedy television. Sometimes we get like that. So I agree. Let's just stop.

I'm gonna do it one more time. The big print what happened to America and how sound money will fix it we don't get the honor of Larry every week James is coming back of course you guys go buy it good job I think I think James will be back next week or the week after he's been on been on holiday but he has not left us just for those who keep coming down that and that was a spicy ending but you know the beauty of this show is it keeps on going and we get to see what happens.

So we'll all be there to find out. Thank you, gentlemen, Larry especially for joining. We will see you guys next Monday for another Macro Monday. Bye. Let's go!