The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Bottoms As Gov Shutdown Ends & Trump’s Stimulus Plan Takes Shape!

Episode Date: November 10, 2025

Bitcoin rebounded as markets reacted to news that the U.S. government funding deal is moving forward, easing shutdown fears, and reports surfaced of a potential new stimulus plan aimed at boosting liquidity. The move comes after a volatile week for crypto and equities, with traders watching whether improving sentiment and policy support can sustain Bitcoin’s momentum or if another pullback lies ahead.

The Bitcoin bottom is likely in as the government shutdown comes to an end. We're discussing Trump's $2,000 stimulus checks and, of course, the idea that we could get 50-year mortgages. These are just a few of the big stories driving markets today that we're going to unpack on Macro Monday. Let's go. Good morning, everybody. This platform, stream yard has changed, and that intro music did not trigger properly, and then I heard it twice.

So I don't really know if you guys heard that, but it's a great day to start a Monday correctly here. We've got Mike, Dave, and James here, of course. Good morning. gentlemen it's a pleasure to see you we got two thousand dollars stimulus checks we got government maybe unshutting down we've got uh sofa rates at a historic low here pretending a potential recession there's gold pumping i mean i guess we'll start with mike but man do we have a lot of talk no no wait let's start with the song i like the new song did you hear did you hear it double

it's pretty solid did you hear like your old i like your old DJ days you know glitchy if i if i sounded like that as a dj i wouldn't have made it very far um so here we are mike what's going on yeah well i think this is reiterating goal loves president trump thank you miss mr trump just keep pumping the money um so i'll start with the morning meeting anna one pointed out the indicator's point to continued moderation inflation in terms of tariff pass-throughs a shutdown to effect uh q4 if it's done by no November 15th, GDP and 4Q will be about zero. If it lasts longer, 4Q GDP will be negative, expect weak 4Q growth, is what you said.

But once we can get through the shutdown, if it's over, then we can get that rebound in Q1. And if the Fed does get data, which they, even if the shutdown ends, they still might not get the data before the next meeting. She's expecting the Fed will cut in December. Now, Ira Jersey thinks the market's already set up for a skip. We have a refunding this week. He's pointing out there's be a bunch of, they won't be adding a lot of duration. I mean, some day it burns, mostly coupons.

The supplying coupons is really increasing much more than duration and bonds. Ten-year yields, he's looking for $419 and $420 as good resistance. He thinks it's going to hold, expects to go back to the lower end of the range of $3.95. And it's basically, markets weigh. for the economy, the economy to change significantly. But he did mention, yeah, Fed's fully priced his skip cutting, and he does expect the rates are going to eventually end at three to three and a quarter, but it might just take a little longer.

Gillian Wolf, our equity strategies, point out we have in the midst of one of the strongest earning seasons on record. The market's shaky. Obviously, AI and tech are concentrated to make up 50% of the S&P 500. Strong beat rates, but point out operating margins are, Missing, margins are revenues minus costs of goods sold. Audrey Child Friedman pointed out the dollar softer, focus on weaker surveys in University of Michigan, which was a pretty bad one on Friday. And her working assumption is dollars can continue to weaken.

Then I focused on markets kind of stuck in a range. WTI Crudeau love 60. What's going to take to get to 40 or above it to 80? Just normal reversion gets it towards 40, still my bias. To get to 80, bottom line is in the standard. stock market goes up, which probably means you need Bitcoin to go up. Copper, same thing. Copper stuck at $5 a pound. What's going to take to make a record towards six or revertorns four. My bias is obviously, it's more likely to revert towards full, four, particularly if the stock

market backs up a little bit. Six is a record high and the rest of the world's facing pretty significant tariffs. You probably don't care about corn. And then I just point out how Bitcoin. We like Bitcoin. Yeah, Bitcoin. There you go. And I just point out, well, the grains are on similar downward trajectories, just like crude oil because they pumped up too much. And then I just point out the extreme value of this stock, the amount of barrels of crude oil to one ounce of gold is 68 at the moment. The highest year-end close ever was 39 in 1933 in 2020, very deflationaries. And then I pointed out the Bitcoin gold cross.

It's just hovering it at 25 support right now. it's 26. To me, the risks are just breaks down below 25. And the key thing to keep it elevated, stock market has to stay up, VIX and VALTIL they have to stay low. VIX is actually hovering around 20, but overall volatility 90-day voltage is running around 10, so near a five-year low. Back to you. So we could have taken the last three or four sentences that you basically repeated the exact same thing for the last, I don't know, how many months now? I mean, it's literally the same thing. I mean, we've been hovering at, the Bitcoin Gold Cross has been hovering around these levels for the same time. All of that is true. But you didn't talk about the impact on what's the

likely money supply and why gold, because last week, you know, you were talking about gold dropping and I basically made the funny comment that, well, I am now more bullish on gold than you are, which I find, which is amusing because I see the bid is going to be as soon as the government reopens, liquidity is going to flow in and that hot money is going to push gold back up over 4,000. And that's exactly what's happening. And that sort of also. what's happening in other assets, one can't ignore the denominator for too long. I mean, this is, this whole shutdown was not about austerity versus liquidity. It was about liquidity versus more liquidity. That's an enormous difference, right? And, you know, I'm trying to tee James up

here, but the truth is, you know, his partner has been screaming. And look, I don't expect a big print. I expect a slow grinding increase in liquidity because they're going to not let the conditions for the big print to happen i.e. they don't want the gears to seize up and so they're going to be more proactive this time that that's been my base case i think they're going to continue to be proactive you can see like we're so one of the things you mentioned the beginning uh scott is the sofa rates have plummeted well you know month end plumbing and uh the government shutdown is all weighed in on liquidity and um and so one of the important drivers of what Dave is saying, which is heading off any financial Black Swan at the pass, it comes in

the form of the standing repo facility where, you know, if you're a financial, if you're one of the main financial centers, you can just put your treasures in the Fed and get dollars and use those dollars. What we saw was a little bit of stress at the end of the month, whether it was from window dressing, whatever it was to make sure that everybody's ratios were in order and their leverage ratios and to stay within regulations, whatever it may be. But dollars were needed. They weren't out there. And so you saw a little bit of stress in the system. By and large, it was headed off short term because of that standing repo facility. So I agree with Dave. And then you're starting to hear, you're hearing the Fed governors are saying, look, we know that we're going to have to

add liquidity to the banks we understand that now how does that come it's going to come in like a steady i would say a steady slow like a steady uh small stream you know it's not going to be this massive fire hose of liquidity and q e but it does expand the balance sheet any way you any way you want to cut it it is a form of liquidity you know adding uh you know reserves is a form of liquidity and they know they have to do that and they're going to they've been talking about this Even Powell said it in his last speech. Now you're hearing governors kind of chirp in about it. You're also hearing governors like Daley saying we ought to take a hard look at, you know,

she's out this morning, Mary Daley, you know, remember the one who said that I'm, I'm too far removed from inflation to feel it because I make too much money, that one, the, the San Francisco Fed president. So, but anyway, she even said that, look, and we, we ought to be able, we ought to be, approaching this as not so scared that we reenter the 70s, meaning stagflation, that we end up missing the 90s. And so she's clearly saying that we ought to be considering lowering rates. But I want to go back to something else you said, Mike, and this is the one that drives me absolute bat shit crazy. And I still do not understand this. And you know what I'm going to say when I

bring up the University of Michigan consumer conference numbers this is so ab just it's ridiculous that first of all that this survey of 600 people is taken so seriously and it is and it is it is such a big driver for some people in in their decision making in in finance it just it makes me nuts however it is real because people do look at it so it really does make a difference. So, Scott, if you can bring up my screen that I just shared, and I have something that might be more useful. So here's a consumer confidence. Okay. So just so people understand. All right. So this, the, here's the, the Michigan consumer confidence is right here. Okay. So you can see it's at, it's at lower than

it was in the, you know, it's about the lowest it's been since the pandemic. Okay. So consumer confidence. Part of this is driven by the tariff battle and the government shut down. Okay. You can see it just dropped the last few, the last couple of readings. Okay. But number one, it's it's just a few hundred people out of the entire country, okay, that they're serving over and over and over again. Okay. That's number one. It's, which is absurd. So I've, I've given you the analogy before. It would be the, the, if you took an, if you took the whole, United States elector, I mean, you took actually the whole United States, every single citizen in the United States, you spread across the football field, okay? It would be the entire

football field, which for people don't know, it's a hundred yards long, okay? This consumer sentiment, the reading that we get is the equivalent of testing just one inch of that one square inch of that entire football field. Okay. So just like, there's a few blades of grass, compared to like a billion or billions, okay? So that's number one. Number two, this survey right here, the consumer survey is, it's dependent on who they survey.

We understand that now. And here's the survey, if you break it up, between the two parties. Here's the Republican Party is, that confidence is up in the 90 range. Okay. and the Democratic Party is down in the 40 range. So tell me how much that this leans left.

If you just do the math, how much does this survey lean left? Okay, so it's a nonsense survey and we can throw it out. It's also nonsense that a consumer survey on the economy is so political. It's still political, but so it's nonsense. I'd love to throw it out. I'm ready to throw it out. However, the problem is, everybody still pays attention to it for some ungodly reason. I can't.

If I could do one thing in my whole career, be like, just stop listening to Michigan, please. There's something sometimes more less valuable or more valuable in the market than a good contrarian indicator. I've been that for a while. But to put to exonerate you, Dave, a little bit, is they, for the first time since April, right before that number came out or right as that number came out Friday. The S&P 500 drop below its 50-day move on average. First time since April. Actually, it was below it on a daily basis. The VIX was up about 22, above 20.

And Bitcoin was hovering at just below 100. That number comes out and the market does the opposite. So it exonerates you, David. It looks at it. I'm like, yeah. Thank you very much. Mike, don't we think that the government shut down news is the reason that Bitcoin and things bounced.

I mean, there's a lot of news that's happening here. But when on a weekend, Trump willy-nilly throws out $2,000 stimulus checks to everybody as an idea, which won't happen. And then we get news that the Senate has gotten together for a government shutdown. I think that's why things are out. 50-year mortgages? Borrow on your house for 50 years and buy Bitcoin instead. Exactly.

So I'm looking for the key indicators. To me, it's now Bitcoin is below its 200-day move of an average. Show the beef. Show me strength. It's got to close above 110 and stay above there. Show me the indicator. And to me, so I'm looking for what the market is. are going to, are telling us. The VIX has popped up near 20. It's hovering a little bit below

there. Now, that's just the things we were looking for a few months ago when the VIX was too low and Bitcoin was too high. Now they're back at these key levels. And gold's hovering at this 4,000 levels. So not to pushback. And Dave, I just have to kick in my, my risk manager discipline of gold as I look at it right now, it's the most stretched above its 40, 50, and 60 month moving average since 2008, right before it corrected 30% and 2011, which put in a high for about 10 years. So yeah, I'm still bullish gold. I'm not saying getting shorter, but sorry, I just cannot go out and say it's going to go to the 5,000. There's a certain time you have to kick in the discipline. So then I'm looking for all the next indicators. And that's our right now.

We're just hovering at these great levels. Gold of 4,000. Yeah, that's great. But it's really scary to stay this stretched. And that's why I'm just looking for the next indicator. So I'm quite simple right now. If we can keep that Bitcoin and get above 110 and stay above there, Maybe micro strategy to alleviate some of its oversold condition. We all know it's getting a little too beat up. Can maybe get back to its 200-day mover in, which is heading lower. The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index, 200-day mover in it's heading lower. They're all following what I saw in crude oil and the grains and 9th 1.

Something's got to shift that. To me, we're getting towards the time of the year. The risks are, yeah, sure, we might end the shutdown. And then we're going to get all that data. It's probably going to be pretty bad. So I'm looking at, show me the beef, show me some indicators. And that's why I'm worried about Bitcoin's got to get a, above 110. Otherwise, it's the leading indicator for me for everything.

I agree. But man, if really quickly, if you want to talk about these mean reversions and things being oversold and bouncing, I mean, just take a look at the 50 week moving average on Bitcoin. It was below it back in 20, 23. It broke above. And it's tested it. This will be the fourth time. And every single time, Wick below and then a bounce. I'm not saying that this time has to be exactly the same. But 50 week moving average in a. a bull or even sideways market is a very good indicator for many of the mean reversion and where you'd want to start getting interested again at a bottom for chartists. I mean, I think that sentiment is probably one of the more important things.

I made a joke to argue one of your tweets this morning or last night. I can't remember when it was about proof of simulation. So if there's a, you know, the fact that the news events seem to always coincide with these sort of major inflection points is it's. It's eerie in a way, but the truth is that when you look at the base investing case for both gold and Bitcoin, you understand that we are in uncharted times. We are in peacetime deficits that are insanely high. We are printing enormous amounts of money from the fiscal point of view. The entire world is in sync in terms of this liquidity.

And so, like, when you look at gold, I look at it and say, yeah, you're right. You know, in 2011, we got to damn near, did it hit, didn't quite hit 2000. I think it hit like 1900. I bought gold for the first time in 2003. So I was quite giddy in 2011. I remember that. And, you know, and I held it, et cetera. But the money supply, our total monetary aggregates, have more than doubled since then,

globally actually worse than that. And at the same time, we decided to impound dollars from a variety of countries, which has made people, central banks, say, you know, we need to permanently hold more of this other thing as reserves. And so when you look at those structural changes, you could make the argument. If it wasn't for the U.S. censoring dollars, that if it wasn't for that, I would say you're right. I think gold, you know, at 4,000 lines up almost exactly. Are you talking about when Biden seized assets? Yes.

Yeah. Correct. Yeah. I mean, that was catastrophic. And so, but the problem is, is doing analysis, which says, okay, 4,000 is the new 2000 because we've doubled the amount of money in circulation, I would be right there with you. But that would be ignoring a very important structural driver, which was central bank buying, which from countries that are not G7, right? So non-G7 central banks are, that's a permabid. right that that that's not changing and that you could put your own your own math on i basically tried to come up with some model and i researched all sorts of people couldn't come up with any definitive my gut is telling me that 20 to some odd percent you know of of supply constraint may

very well on the margin could very well be right which is where i came up with 5 000 as my new my new 2000 but yeah i mean you're right mike markets get extended trees don't grow to the die. The difference is if you flip over to Bitcoin, we are nowhere near those levels. We have yet to see the rally from this quote cycle. We saw literally a massive increase in demand by opening up the financial system. And what happened was way less than most financial models would have predicted. Why? Because original, because we've entered a new phase in Bitcoin. It's called distribution. And, you know, there've been, you know, the, everyone's talking about that well-written article, you know, by, I forgot who it was a few weeks ago. Yeah. Yeah. But if you've

been listening to Macro Monday for the last four months, you heard me saying exactly the same thing. And I'm not going to change because it's exactly what's happening. I mean, it's the same symptomology that caused Zcash to do what it's doing, right? You get some Bitcoin OG saying, well, we did it once. We could do it again. And so they're going to pile money into a less liquid asset that's supposedly is more cypherpunk. And yeah, it's going to run for a bit. And when the music stops, there's no one coming in behind them. Because the traditional financial system isn't going to use the Bitcoin narrative on something else

because it doesn't make sense for all sorts of reasons. Now, it could run 10x from here. So I'm not saying it's shorter by any stretch of the imagination. I'm basically telling you that it's all symptoms of the same dynamic, which is distribution from the original cypherpunk types to the financial system. system. Now some of the original cypherpunk types understand, and they don't talk a lot because they're smart, you know, why advertise that you're a billionaire in this world, this makes you a target, right? But, you know, these are people who understand that for Bitcoin to actually

be, to do hyper-bitcoinization, for Bitcoin to become the denominator, which we are so far from, that it needs to permeate the financial system. Every man, woman, and child needs to own some Bitcoin. Well, for that to happen, they can't hold it. So it's, this is not a hard thing to understand, but that's what's, that's what's happening. There's the, if you pull it up, Scott, the article you're talking about. Yeah, that's sir. Yeah. Yeah. So, but you know, I, I, I even laugh because there are erstwhile some, you know, there are erstwhile people who claim that markets are going to crash, like, you know, Jeff Snyder, who articulate in his reason, for the crash the exact reason to own bitcoin it's it's it's almost comical you know it's it's it's either

it's a yes or no question at the heart of all this is do you believe bitcoin will fail or will it continue to show the strength of the strongest chart that you never show which is the long-term growth and hash rate and and that is that is a really really really important chart and to the point where i think it's worth let me you know just let me just let me just let me just just pull it up because it's it when blockchain.com has this chart and you look at it and you see it it's consistent so i want to make this bigger okay so hold on let's do this yeah i want to bring it up in a few different ways so hold on so share screen uh here we go yeah scott you're like you're like chivy chase and eddie can i help you with it can i okay so you're looking at this chart right

This is just the last year. And the last year, you can see it every time the blue line, which is the hash, every time the black line has gotten above, it's come back. Every time it's down below, it's snapped back. That basically would tell you somewhere around 120. But it gets much more interesting when you go to zoom out. Now, you zoom out, this is three years. Now, this, if anyone looked at just the blue line, you would say, wow, this looks like the S&P from 2009 through, you know, whatever. Right, just up into the right, a little bit of volatility, but, you know, there's, this, this is a crazily powerful trend.

If you look at this, you say, okay, 130. Now you go to all, and all of a sudden you look at a blue line, which shows almost a perfect, and this is that this is the China ban, this little chart down here, which is, which is, that's it. And we remember how monumental was. Now, since then, it is one of the strongest single charts, literally I have ever laid eyes on. And look at the price. The price was way, before the China ban, the price was way in excess of that. Then way below, caught up, way below, caught up, a little bit above. But it has not gone above.

There's been zero euphoria effectively since the China ban and what happened in 2022. None. And so the question you have to ask yourself is, well, two things. First of all, will this continue to hold? Because if so, you're looking at somewhere 130, 140, 150, as kind of baked in the cake. because this is showing you the ultimate underlying demand for Bitcoin. The other question you have is, will we ever see a euphoria set again? Will FOMO ever kick in?

And the answer, you know, it did it once, did it twice. Maybe it'll never happen again, possibly. But if it does, that gives you an idea of where the upside risk is if you're looking at. What's the downside? Well, the downside was down here, right? This was after a wave of force consolidations. This was after this fall that came to, down to meet the line and it went below it. Why? Because F the X failed, causing enormous forced selling

from people who had no choice, waves of bankruptcies. As I said, just anecdotally, and Coinrout serves a very reasonable cross-section of trading firms, 75% went into severe enough distress to not trade for three months and more than 50% of our clients went bankrupt in that period. 50, that's 5-0. crazy so the force selling was massive and you saw what happened and so you have to kind of discount this and this is the recovery now from here now you have tariff tantrum yada yada yada yada and things happen but i think it's really important to contextualize this when you look at lines on a chart and you ignore two factors you can't ignore just can't ignore the the notion of and i want to stop sharing this is enough you can't ignore two things that i always talk about one

You're oversharing. You're over sharing again, Dave. Is it, did I stop? No. Yeah. Anyway, the, the, the, the, you can't ignore money. So the, the aggregate money supply in all these charts and you can't ignore from a Bitcoin perspective, the strength of the Bitcoin network. If you do, you're going to make a mistake. That's the point. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, there's, there's plenty of vacation references from you. There's, there's so many. I mean, look, look. look, one of the things that we've got to really kind of hammer out is the four-year cycle.

Like, we do, people keep talking about the four-year cycle, the four-year cycle. And I mean, for me, I just think that that four-year cycle is, is dead. There's just, we're not going to continue on this, you know, there's like a set of what, three data points of cycles and four data points of cycles. So it's just not enough to hang your hat on if you're, a professional investor or trader, you've got to realize that this, this has migrated. Bitcoin is migrated to distribution phase, like Dave said, distribution phase, which is a completely different part of a cycle of an adoption of a technology.

And like the IPO article, you know, you get all the, you have the basically what happens is, and the parallel there that Dave is talking about is that for the listeners, that you went back in the day when you have an IPO like amazon or um you know google or whatever the insiders got massive massive massive amounts of shares it's so many shares that they couldn't really sell them on the market without driving the market price lower and so they had to sit on the shares they could there was they were just stuck in them because there wasn't enough liquidity for two reasons if people saw the insider selling number one that would be bad and number two if they the sheer amount they would have to sell to get to get liquid and to or to actually monetize

that wealth that they had accumulated would just be it would just it would be insurmountable so they would they would drive the market lower that's the argument that I'm hearing and I don't I I am not an expert on on chain analytics I'm depending on you know the inside of others there is a debate about this are there are those coins moving because of Segwit or are they moving because of, and that's Willie Wu is saying, are they moving because the, the OGs are selling because they finally have liquidity. And that's the big question. And it's a little bit of both, but mostly the latter. Yeah, I think it's a, I think it's a lot of OGs finally have enough liquidity that they're like, wait, I could sell 10,000 coins and not move the market. I go and only move it a few

thousand dollars and you know when when bitcoin's over a hundred thousand dollars i said i would be selling some it's been it's been stuck here for months and months and months okay i'm done i want to go get my billion dollars and just go and and be done you know and that's what you're talking about you're talking about somebody who bought 15 000 worth of bitcoin that turned into 1.05 billion dollars in 14 years okay well and and everybody says well where's that money going is it going to go into the stock market is it it must be going into other all coins or No, I mean, they're buying, you know, they're actually putting probably into short-term treasuries and and houses and mansions and yachts and whatever.

And that's the distribution, they're redistribution of wealth. And they're, you know, and now you're taking those coins and putting into a lot of smaller hands. And that's an important development in the Bitcoin, you know, adoption phase. And that's really important, which is where I guess that's one of the forks in the road we come to, with you, Mike, is that I failed to believe that Bitcoin sentiment is at an all-time high. I believe that it's actually closer to a low from the people who have been in it for a while. And, you know, the media still loves to hate it. And even though it's being talked about all the time, they still love to hate it.

And the first thing you saw when Bitcoin dipped below $100,000 was headlines that Bitcoin is under $100,000. It's crashing, you know. It's like 12 minutes. Yeah. It's crashing from 103,000 to 100 or to 99,000, you know. I mean, it's an intraday move for this thing now. So you guys, yeah, I brought up your tweet before about the long-term holders. And then, of course, Mike snap back.

And then Dave jumped in. So you guys were kind of having a little thing over there on X. But listen, to just shift away from Bitcoin, although it's all related. Mike, I mean, we've got, we either talk about. the government shutdown, right? We've got that obviously coming to an end, or we can jump into $2,000 stimulus checks and 50-year mortgages. I mean, these seem like very populist election cycle type ideas we're starting to see here, right? Yeah. I mean, the first thing of the Senate shutdown is really important in that why the markets are reacting is because just remember,

the TGA, the Treasury General account is supposed to have $850,000. billion dollars in it that's the target what's got about a trillion dollars in it right now so it's about 150 billion dollars it's waiting on the sidelines come back into the economy it's just sitting there waiting and so that's why the market's like okay we're going to get this thing we're going to get the economy driving again we're going to get all the flights back online we're going to get the the government workers are going to get their paychecks and that money's going to flow back into the economy it's an important deal it's important situation so but go ahead mike for that kind of stuff i i chose not to focus on it too much because to me it's what markets are

telling us what to be expecting and and i do and one of the things i've been mentioned i'm so frightful in the market and this last weekend's um naples family office supposium i get to meet gary cardone and i obviously michael sailor as the keynote made me come down i know so i guess i just it was quite well populated, it was just, you know, things I expect to put in my book someday is, and the book's going to read the title be the title, it was different or it wasn't different. Obviously, I'm still leaning towards the ladder on that. But it's when people clapped, when people expressed bullish Bitcoin outlooks, I was just, oh my gosh, seriously, and these are educated, wealthy people.

That's just scary stuff. Now, I just point out points of performance, Bitcoin's performance is absolutely sucked. this year on a risk-adjusted basis. It's up 13%. S&P 500's up 70%. Gold's up 55%. Is that going to change? And my point is, that's what the year, a third year in rural, S&P 500 up almost 20%. We're going to get a 10% drawdown and stay down for a while. It's just going to happen in a matter of time. And then Bitcoin can easily drop 50%. And that's my point. So I'm looking towards next year. We're right at 100 ground. So let me finish my outlook here. We're going to either be at 50 or 150 next year. number one prerequisite to go to 150 is number one stock market has to go up no okay maybe it's different this time but that's first everything else is trickling down from there and I look at it like okay well we've had all year to do better everybody says buy the dip and it's just horrible now I look at the Bloomberg galaxy crypto index as of Friday was down 1% in the year it trades three to four

five it trades three to four times of volatility so I'm pointing out these are bull market peak signs that it's my job to be ahead of the game now last year obviously you know I tilted way too early towards gold, but even gold's getting too expensive. So I just say there's certain times to say, you know, good luck. Maybe you'll get lucky. Maybe Bitcoin will stay above that $110,000. It's 200-day moving average. But I can easily see it, you know, and just the normal drawdown,

that's me five on someday that happens. And you'll go back to $50,000 and then reset everything. Let's get Dogecoin down to Zaire. Let's get flush out the space, do what's normally used to happen, and then reset. It's not a failure. These are signs of peak. full market stuff. I just want to say I want to reiterate this one more time. You're using you're by using year to date, you're cherry picking a performance metric that doesn't make

sense with Bitcoin because it was up 50% from from November to the end of the year because of the election. And so you've got you've got to go back to last year. Use a two year metric or something. And this is the one that, you know, Petership loves to dunk on. He just loves to dunk on this. You know, like, oh, Bitcoin's done nothing this year. Look at gold. Okay, go back. Bitcoin had a tremendous move right after the election that, of course, it's going to have it take a breather.

It's going to consolidate. It got over $100,000 in November. And it's basically, it came back down with the tariff tantrum, and it came back up, and it's been sitting somewhere around $100,000, $100,000 since May. And it's been 100,000 and above since then. I mean, 100,000 in 2024, right? This is crazy. I mean, you can't have it both ways.

You can't have it both ways. You can't say that Bitcoin is overbought and too bullish because a bunch of boomers who dip their toe in the water want to look good and don't want to think they took career risk by putting client money into Bitcoin. when the entire crypto community is overwhelmingly bearish. And I just asked Grock and I went through this. So crypto fear and greed extremely bearish, right? Which, you know, we all understand I'm a contrarian.

Social media sentiment bull and bear index overwhelmingly bearish. Active address sentiment indicator massively bearish. Funding rates massively bearish, meaning all of these sentiment indicators. The only one that's not is the MRV score, which is basically neutral. to slightly bearer. So every single one of them is negative. And then I asked Grock to go through and survey just all the various four-year cycle people and how prevalent they are. And Grock concluded that while other than people like literally Scott Melker and Arthur Hayes are the only two they found that were in the bullish camp of the major posters. Once again, bearish. And then went

through Google. Yeah, I've been posted. And so Google, yeah, you, you and you, you and Arthur Hayes. Everybody else is the other way around. Literally, it's kind of funny. There are a few people who think that, yeah, we'll get a little relief rally here and then we'll go to a bare market, you know, et cetera. And then you go through Google trend on Bitcoin searches, once again, way the hell down. The search is Bitcoin sell-off, right? That's the only terms. Those are the only terms that are up. All I will say is anecdotally, this is, this has been, it is really, really, really hard to believe that a top happens when everybody, when the horde is leaning negative. It just doesn't work like that. And it's a very strange thing. It thought of this time is different

because we've seen this before, right? You know, rallies tend to climb a wall of worry. And you generally, you know, when you get a rally and it consolidates for a line time, you then have to question, well, it's going to go up or down. Well, just remember, up or down on that line, as money continues to flow into the economy means that staying still since January. I'm sorry, James, while we've pumped as much money into the economy as we have, means it's actually already fallen, right? You need to adjust your lines to take into account the denominator. I mean, you know, I know we don't like algebra anymore, but when we run chart lines that ignore what you're pricing the thing in to, you know, to quote Michael Saylor, the melting ice cube. But when you, when you have a two trillion

dollar deficit, everything should be up. And if it isn't, then it's actually down. And so what if the actual correction that you've been calling for has been happening by prices not moving nearly as fast as liquidity flowing in? And honestly, I think that is what's happening. And oh, by the way, your other indicator that you love to look at, you know, I jokingly refer to it as the fart coin Bitcoin ratio. But it's, but meme coins have not exactly rallied strongly. Yeah, of course, they do on the short. Very few things have rallied. That's kind of the argument for the lack of four-year cycle. And you could even say, as Mike was pointing out, a lack of a bull market in 2025. But that means that if we were mis-curs-if we were mis-calling it a bull market, it means

either we haven't started one yet or we never really got one for the crypto industry beyond Bitcoin at the end of last year. So it leaves us an interesting place. But I do want to very specifically talk about these few things. But I think we all know the government shutdown is ending. Donald Trump's $2,000 tariff payout, the Stimmy checks here. I mean, I don't understand. I don't understand. And then, but very quickly, Bacent came on TV. It was like, yeah, but your $2,000 dividend could be just from your, like, tax on tips and the tax breaks that you're getting. So no check. Just we're calculating that generally you got $2,000 off. And then, I mean, we got to talk about 50-year mortgages. And I just want to show you guys some data. A lot of people,

People are like 50-year mortgages are a great idea. People will be able to afford housing. It'll be a lot lower. Here's the math on a 50-year mortgage for those who don't know. A 30-year mortgage versus 50-year mortgage, your payment on a $410,000 house only goes down about $112 a month. And you end up paying $963,000 instead of $470,000 for your house. This is the biggest sucker bet in the history of mankind.

And this is the stuff. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, you're wrong. There's something today that exists. People ignore it. Okay, they're bigger. Interest-only mortgages, which are bigger sucker bet. Yeah. Yeah.

But, I mean, this is like, it's absolute insanity to save $100 a month that you Well, the interest rates aren't the same there, but, you know. Well, you pay a higher interest rate for 50-year mortgage. That's why you calculate that. You wouldn't get the same rate. Yeah. Okay. So, look, here's a few things.

Like, personally, I think it's silly, but it doesn't matter, right? You know, Gary Cardone said this best. So this is all part of extended and pretty. attend. That's it. That's what it's part of. But let's be fair for a second. If you look at at the UK, for example, there you people, most people don't actually own anything. They buy what's called leaseholds, which are 100 years in duration, right? You know, this is, this is a well-trodden path. And the difference between a 50-year mortgage and renting, there are two massive differences. And people really ignore them. It's actually kind of funny. One is quality of life.

life. If you rent, you can't remodel a kitchen. You can't make an extension. You can't build a pool. You don't even know if you're going to be kicked out in a year, obviously. You can't even change a light fixture. It's a major quality of life difference. So all these people who say it's the same as renting, sorry, not sorry. You're totally wrong. And let's just understand. If UK, people are saying that that's not entirely accurate in the comments. They go in nuts, but we can add. Oh, on the on the leaseholds. Okay. Well, it was what I live there in 95. Okay. So, you know, it might be different now. I, I freely admit that. They're saying mostly freehold, not leasehold. But yeah, go ahead. Okay, but there are freeholds and

leaseholds. There's, there is a difference. Okay. But any event, a 50-year mortgage is commercial loans go 100 years. Now, understand, we have interest-only loans, et cetera. You could do a 50-year mortgage on a fixed rate. And by definition, it will be a higher rate than the 30. 100%. You're all right. unless, of course, we have a recessionary yield curve and who the hell knows. But let's ignore that for a second. There is nothing in the world stopping you running a 50-year mortgage on a 10-year arm or a three-year arm or a seven-year arm, which is an adjustable rate mortgage as well, so as to equalize the rates. So if you do equalize the rates, which you can definitely do, it's saved more than that.

It is useful. The trade-off that you're making, which has been accurately pointed out, is you are not, not accumulating equity. If you're buying it, it's more or less like buying perpetual swaps instead of owning Bitcoin. You're effectively taking more leverage to own it, meaning two things. You have more risk. So if it goes down, you're more likely to end up underwater because you have less of an equity buffer in terms of what you build up. And it means that you also have more upside, right, in terms of leverage. So you understand that. And then the second thing it means is that you're, Well, I mean, I guess you're not accumulating as much equity, so you don't get there.

But the truth is, is it really is a question of certainty. The difference between renting and a super, super long mortgage is if you don't make your adjustment, if you take something like a seven year or a 10 year, which is more than most people rent, if you peg your adjustable rate at the amount of time that you expect to live in the house, well, guess what? You locked in certainty for that period, which you don't have when you're renting. And rent will also rise. And your effective mortgage payment will continue to decrease with inflation over time.

Right. Exactly. So the positives and negatives is a gimmick. No one can argue that. But it's completely unsurprising. As someone pointed out in a space last night, Japan has 100-year mortgages, which is insane. But, you know, it's effectively, it is what it is. I mean, it's a gimmick.

And there's nothing wrong with the gimmick. but it's still a gimmick you know the real problem is we're printing so much freaking money that and we're pushing it into assets and this is where i want to to tilt to say to use mike's favorite word is we're pushing it into assets and therefore asset going asset inflation is considered quote good except home asset at home isn't as an asset that's bad because now that makes things on affordable and that's a political thing so don't be surprise rhetorically. If you haven't seen it, I will say if rates were like 2.5 or 3%, and you can get a 50 year mortgage and go ahead and just buy Bitcoin and watch that mortgage

become smaller and smaller. Yeah, that's all true. But my point here is two points. First, we're seeing already signs of people talking about houses as not assets. Why? Because they want to try to decrease real estate, you know, appreciation relative to others. They're going to fail with that because the world doesn't look at it that way. The other is if, in fact, you gave out $2,000 stimmy checks, that is the actual worst possible thing you can do if what you want to try to do is minimize consumer inflation while maximizing asset inflation. And one of the problems of the big, one of the problems of the print in the pandemic was that they actually sent money straight to people's checking accounts. Well, that's what that and that's our reason for the consumer

inflation exactly right well that when supply chains were constrained were that's exactly what happened but if you don't think that that'll happen again then you're not paying attention so i think i think that's why besent was walking this back because he's like wait a minute the last time we did this was catastrophically stupid right uh and so maybe we shouldn't be catastrophically stupid again and the real question will be who's going to win the people the the the political strategists that say we need to do this before the midterms. They're not going to do it now. If they do it, it'll be in the summer before the midterms. That's when they'll do it. It'll be a pure political buy-off. Whether they do so or not, we'll find out. But I think it's a really interesting question.

I don't understand how Republicans float stimulus checks. I guess he gave the last one. But I just, it's like any party making a critical responsibility is just absurd. Well, exactly. So that's what we're, we're, Let's talk about, you know, what's roped in what's changed since our last macro monies on Monday. We had almost a complete democratic sweep in the elections, and the number one issue was affordability or inflation. That's a lose, lose for Mr. Trump, because the number one factor for all inflationary factors now on an unprecedented basis, only really two times in history, is the U.S. stock market. It's 10. And it's going up, it's creating more inflation. It's

2.3 times GDP. It is the economy now. And that's his bias. We want to, a higher stock market, but you don't want inflation. This is a lose-lose from Mr. Trump. And that's my point is what I think I'm showing signs of the endgame. So the Fed started cutting rates in September 17th. Since that date, 10-year-note yields are up about 10-based points. Bitcoin's down about 10%. If that's not going to help Bitcoin, what is, and the stock market's hovering up around 2%. So my point is, we're at the end game. We're near it. And Bitcoin gold's telling me that. Bitcoin versus a broad basket of, I'm sorry, broad basket of cryptos versus precious metals are telling me that. And now it's just about one little thing. The stock market has to stay up. And that to me

is what this declining Bitcoin, the gold ratio is telling me declining micro strategy. And I hope you're right. I hope by the end of this year or so can say, yeah, we're above 110. I think we're more likely to be back down in the air, which is below 94. It's just, this is where things are leaning now. And I look at it as a trader, give me a rally, I'll sell. It's certainly happening things like crude oil. Give me a rally or sell it. Give me rallies and crude oil. And Bitcoin, I think people are looking to sell because they're realizing this failed performance. Yes, that's a point that you made Dave, James and Dave, it was up a lot last year. But this is what Kamani is doing. Remember, Bitcoin's not even a commodity. It's got millions

and millions of competitors. This is something that's never happened. Let's talk about what's really happening. Millions and competitors, and it's showing poor performance. Is that going to just shift on the dime with the Fed easy? And the Fed already decided they're going to stop easy. I'm talking about an end game here of risk assets going up. Dave's muted. Dave is, Dave, you're muted, which is making it so much better. because we can see just how passionate you are about. I almost, I was, I literally, get an energy drink in there. I thought you were going to spit it out.

I almost spit out my little energy drink here. It's like, okay, you know what? I'm going to ignore the millions of competitors line because it's, it's like, we've been over that so many times. Not doing it again. But Bitcoin is undeniably, no one can argue that Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase since January. You can't.

You can't. You can say anything you want. You call that poor performance. Call it whatever the hell you want, call it. I don't care. It doesn't matter. And by the way, it could continue for another two or three years. It can continue a very long time.

It's based on information we don't know, which is how much supply, what's the supply demand curve look like for Bitcoin? All these people who predicted Bitcoin will go to the moon immediately, effectively assume that because it's a constrained supply, they just assumed that it's inelastic to price. Well, if there's one thing that 2,025 proved, is Bitcoin is not inelastic to price. There are holders who own it who actually reacted very strongly to the price being over $100,000. That's a fact. And we don't know when and where their demand or their supply curve is.

It could be that we are reaching the end of the $100,000 supply and they'll sit back and wait for the next round number, likely somewhere between 2 and 250 before they sell more. It could be that they're here infinitely, you know, or seemingly infinitely, so that we stay here for five or ten years. It could be. We don't know. More likely, it's an actual curve that will show a step function like we did from 10,000. That supply at – there was a lot of supply at 10,000, and it took a while. And I pointed this out when Paul Volker first said fastest horse in the race in that May of that year, first of all, the day that he said it, it spiked above 10,000 went below.

It didn't do a damn thing until mid-October, when it started creeping up into the low teens. And then as soon as it became obvious, and this is exactly how markets work, in November and December of that year, that, oh, wait a minute, the people who had sold. Taylor, and then it went. Taylor bought Bitcoin in August or September. Right. But it still took a couple of months, and then it started to move. And then what to do? It went up by a factor of six.

Now, I am not calling for it to go up by a factor of six. I am merely stating that the nature of supply curves is not an overhang that lasts forever at a level. And so what you need to do as a prognosticator is understand. And if you don't take that supply curve into account, then you're going to get the wrong answer. Of course, we also have to understand demand. And your point, Mike, is whether I agree with it or not, and I clearly don't, that there's lots of other competitors. But there's no doubt that XRP, for example, takes some demand away from Bitcoin, no doubt. That's why they trade so similarly.

right there's no doubt that some tokens claim like ether a lot of the ether bulls claim that it's going to replace bitcoin you know i'm not going to get into that here i am firmly on the there's only one asset in crypto that is money and lots of other assets that may very well have enormous value in the end but not necessarily as the base layer but that's my personal predilection there are so many topics on that this is a macro show i don't want to talk there but to we are trying to understand the macro factors that influence the supply and demand curse that's what we're doing you know we can talk about it in any way we want to talk about it and i just think that the liquidity coming in from the government shutdown ending both parties wanting to spend more

and the federal reserve understanding that we still have toxic shit on the balance sheets of banks i call commercial real estate we have a very two-tiered economy which is causing means that's choking off aggregate demand has a extraordinarily larger impact on unemployment than it does on inflation. People are starting to realize that these are true, right? And so these are the forces that we need to prognosticate. And the only thing that's changed over since the last week is the likelihood of the Republicans thinking austerity is a good idea has gone close to zero because they're going to focus on affordability and helping people because they don't want the same thing to happen next year. So the political situation, anyone looking at Mamdami winning

in New York, Spamberger winning in Virginia, Cheryl winning in New Jersey, and California's Prop 50 going the way that it did as not galvanizing the Republicans to be more behind stimulative policies, you're not paying attention. So as macro analysts, you're right, Mike, it's a huge difference. Forget the politics. It means more money's coming in the system over the next year and we need to act accordingly that's that's that's that's my diatribe for today which means buy bitcoin right well i yes of course i think that but i'm telling you bitcoin might not be the best performing asset in a world depending on the demand curve i mean the supply curve from people who are selling it i personally think that it's going to normalize and yes i that that's if people

give me my advice i say unleveraged bitcoin preferably you know depending on on your your your level of technical competence, your, you know, what, how many dependents you have, et cetera, all sorts of other factors, how you buy unlevered Bitcoin. That becomes a much more complicated conversation. But, you know, that's my favorite play, yes. Scott, you can bring up what I just shared. This is why you buy unlevered Bitcoin. This just happened.

For the last 20 minutes, all these leveraged trades were wiped out. in the last 20 minutes. Yep. And that's what, you know, so what, again, once again, we've got to have the, you know, short term volatility of Bitcoin around. And the volatility seems to be, you know, it stays between somewhere between 100 and 125,000 between here and May. But the intraday volatility has been like this on and off for months because of this nonsense. And that's what Dave's talking about. So, you know, you go and lever up a thousand. $1,000 trade to $100,000, you're going to lose $1,000 pretty quickly. Yep.

And look, people expecting immediate follow-through. It's like, I don't think I've ever seen a community of, I don't even call them investors. Call them gamblers. I don't think I've ever seen a community of gamblers more willing to get to wrapped in the nose with the newspaper by the market every single time they think there's going to be a breakout or a breakdown. They get crushed. Well, and look, let's be, let's be fair. Okay. So at least the three of us on the right side of the screen in the bottom here are old enough to have lived through a number of cycles. And we understand how long it takes to build wealth. And we have had opportunities to build it that, that, you know, the younger generation, quite honestly, just they're killing themselves just to be able to survive. And so it's a, we've

created through this this you know system of the cantalon effect has created a gambling uh you know um yeah yeah because they're if they're willing to know i just i got to try to do something i'm this i'm never going to get there doing what they said i was that i should do go to college take out the loan go get a job rent an apartment and i can't even pay for the food for the week how am i like how am I ever going to put enough away to, you know, buy gold? Listen, it's the new version of playing the lottery with your last money from work so that you have a chance to become rich. And it's a tail is old.

By the way, if you like leverage, apparently it's coming to U.S. crypto exchanges soon. Awesome. Yay. Well, and there's no, I mean, there's no surprise that there's a bet now button on everything you do. When you be any sports screen that comes up, it's like, bet now, bet, bet, bet, bet. Like, how many, it's $140,000 industry now, the sports bettering, it's betting. And it's, you know, and you see, that's why you see things like the, you know, the, the, the receiver from or the, yeah, the receiver from Vanderbilt holds out the football. It doesn't touch the corner cone, but they call it a two point, you know, conversion because, well, that covered the three point spread.

I mean, like, you, you know, you can't argue that this stuff isn't happening. You know, you're seeing it. The NBA stuff. Can I tell a story? The baseball are getting arrested. The industry is massive. And so, you know, what's old is new again.

So my grandfather was a bookie. My grandfather got kicked out of the mob because in the 50s, he didn't believe that the mob was capable of fixing college basketball games. And so he laid off bets. He didn't cost them. He only cost them money because they knew that. They told him which way to let that the books move. By the way, bookies just so you understand it,

if you ever watch the show, Bookie, don't do what the comedian does in that show. Bookies always lay off bets, and they take what's called the Vig, which is the Vigorous, which is the spread. My grandfather literally got kicked out of the mob. It's a total of the time. They said, Max, we love you.

So we're not going to, it's not going to be bad. But go work for your brother, the florist. You're not really cut out. Max does not sleep with the fishes. He is not. My grandfather lived in 92, but he did that. My father always said, don't bet on anything that breathes because you're paying too much of a big. And sports betting is so big. But when you see arguably the best closer in baseball during a period of time, Emmanuel Claisse, getting himself into debt and helping fix baseball games, that's the story that came out. You understand anyone who thinks that that crypto markets are rigged, oh my god i mean that's so much worse you had something to share there yeah yeah thanks guy if you can go back to i'm getting jealous you're getting to show charts and i'm not so i want to show a chart and and make a prediction

for that next year so this is a chart of the bloomberg galaxy crypto index which i initially suggested here divided by a basket of precious metals there's only four and there's no there's no going back to 2017 we can agree there's basically no trend in the basket of the crypto is divided by a basket of precious metals. The difference is an index will always have a survivor bices, not bias. Now, right now there's millions of cryptos that can choose from. It'll take the top ones, but it always have a survivor bias. That should be great for an index.

There's no survivor biases for four precious metals. There's only four precious metals. My point is I will make a prediction that this chart will go down next year, meaning the basket of all the basic cryptos, anyone you want to look at, even Bitcoin, anytime measured basis will drop versus precious metals. And there's one key reason I'm making that is I'm just overlaying. This is this is U.S. stock market cap to GDP. I think at some point this is going to go down. It has in the past. Oh my gosh. But when it does, we're going to see most of these cryptos go to zero, which is overdue. And then we'll have a great time to buy. That's just my

base case now. I should not be buying anything in cryptos. Mostly Bitcoin, the rules of economics will apply. Unlimited supply is never good for any assets. Let me finish. And we'll get through that period, I think it's starting now is my fearful. That's why my, so far, just that Bix's going back to 20. Yeah, it's hanging out there. Just Bitcoin drag and dropping down to 100,000. Those are shots across the bow. Now they got to really stop doing that. Otherwise, things like micro strategy, you're just telling you where things are going. Well, Mike, how many how many cryptos are in that index? 12. So there's only 12. And it can track millions, but that's the point. It's only going to track the ones that are doing

the best. Yeah, those 12 are likely none of those 12 are going to zero, you know, but, but it, but here, This chart is perfect. Keep it up on the screen. We are all exactly in the middle of the range. So what you're basically saying is, and my expectation is precious metals and crypto all go higher because, by the way, we're printing money. We're going to print more money.

So bias it upwards and everything, not this chart, but the precious metals as well, because you can be bullish on both. But we're right in the middle of the range, meaning that it was overbought and now it's back to even. Here's the thing. Overlay this with the growth in the Bitcoin network that we talked about before and tell me what's going on. How much of this is Bitcoin dominance going in one direction?

How much of this is our other factors? Bitcoin and Ethereum, Ethereum has been driven by Tom Lee, and we all understand that. But if you look, really, if you just did the chart Bitcoin versus Gold, I think you see a very similar chart. So that's, which is effectively, it's, it's right back in the middle and both are biased, but it's ignoring the growth in the Bitcoin network completely. So can I put it up here's the thing is, here's the thing. It's going down despite the stock market going up. That's the problem.

That's showing divergent weakness. And you have to make the point is either cryptos are going to catch up or stock market's going back down. And when you get the highest ever, you probably just have to take risk off the table. And to me, that's what gold is telling me this year that you're supposed. also just say, get out. Thank you very much. I'll clip my coupons and treasuries. Great. And that's wonderful for you, except for understand corporate profits look almost exactly the same as stock market GDP. Corporate profits to GDP are up just as much.

So once again, stock markets are effectively discounting future cash flows from corporations and the future cash flows from corporations are up that much. Does that mean that you'll be wrong? No, corporate profits could nosedive. We could do things. We could elect President AOC. And going that way. And if you do that, then, yeah, you know, the S&P could lose 50%. But what will actually happen is not that corporate profits will nosedive because the left

and the right are one party and they both take a lot of donations. And we've seen this in the health care fight and anyone who wants to understand that. We talked about that a lot this weekend. I mean, we have enacted rules to benefit large corporations over small. and make the big companies in the S&P do better. But you can't spread, this chart of the stock market to GDP looks like, and when you look at that chart, if that's the only thing you looked at and the only data point you look at,

you would sell everything in clip coupons, 100%. So, but I also do the same thing compared to this U.S. stock market versus the rest of the world. It's the same thing. The difference is U.S. stock market versus the rest of the world started rolling over. U.S. stock market versus gold has started rolling over. The only thing that really hasn't started rolling over, unless this is the beginning. I mean, it's a monthly chart is U.S. stock market versus GDP. So I'm using different measures, but just how about U.S. compared to the rest of the world?

I mean, it's the highest ever. Yeah, no, it's true. But U.S. corporations have been outperforming. Why? Because they're selling to the rest of the world that we globally dominate in a bunch of industries that there wasn't, that the last time when Clinton was in the White House, he didn't try to destroy the tech industry. He did exactly the opposite of what Biden, well, not Biden, President Autopin.

did in terms of digital asset and understand that is why i mean the we talk about the mag seven you know as reverence that mag seven doesn't exist if the policies in the late 90s were the same towards technology in the internet as they were towards crypto in the previous administration so understand we're benefiting from that and honestly i don't know that they if it wasn't that Elizabeth Warren won't be put out to pasture in the next administration anyway. So we'll see what happens. But the truth is corporate profits are what matters. And yeah, they're at risk if policies change.

But as long as we're deregulatory, I mean, what's, forget the government shutdown. What was the projected GDP growth for 2025 before the government shut down? It was 4%. Right? What's 2026 going to look like with the government up and running and an emboldened Trump trying to deregulate even faster and printing even more. Those are the things that you have to look at, but that's where charts kind of could be difficult.

Is there a crash at some point in corporate profits because we do stupid things at a political level, quite possibly, but not now? And markets, unfortunately, they claim to be a discounting method for the future. We all know the same reason that they look at the University of Michigan survey. The crash would be short term, and in my opinion, it would have to be related to the concentration of the few assets, the few stocks that are the drivers of the AI revolution here that, you know, make up 30% of the S&P. So that's like that's where you could have that distinct and sharp drawdown if that kind of euphoria. you know, if that wanes or if that kind of gets popped a bit. Now, whether or not long-term, that is where these stocks are going to trade long-term, well, yeah, they're looking out the 28,

2930 on the earnings. Do they get there? Likely they do. It's just a question of, have we gotten ahead of ourselves a little bit too much? And then that's what starts that, you know, snowball effect. And because we're so concentrated with ETFs, that starts another snowball effect. where the selling begets more selling, and that's what, you know, Mike's sell-off, that is where my opinion, that kind of occurs. But again, going back to the beginning of the show, the Fed, the Treasury, and this administration will do everything they can to avoid a sharp drawdown in markets because the markets are driving the economy, and the economy needs to be up and running, or else those deficits are going to blow out from $2 trillion to $4 trillion in a nanosecond.

And they're also driving inflation, and inflation is a great way to get unelecting. Great. And they don't care about anything but getting elected. That's true. But the worst thing you do is go into a recession. You're not going to get reelected in a recession. No. Well, that's a lose. No. And look, the key thing they have to do, just the last point is you want consumer inflation not to spike. Deregulate the crap out of all the industries so as to not let supply chains get constrained. That's what they need to do. And I don't know if they're going to succeed. But because if you try, if you hand money to people and don't do anything about the supply, inflation is 100% certain. Maybe they just want to time it. I mean, that's what I think they're going to do. I think that's exactly what they're going to do. Drop a little stimulus at the right moment. Markets trend up.

And then we get the data of the inflation spike. If you can make employment or people happy in September, October and have inflation not happen until the end of November. you know you succeeded i mean honestly that's intensely cynical scoff but i think we all kind of believe it you could push that button they would push it you know all that they're pushing that button recessions are illegal as matt hogan said guys it's 1009 think we are covered it all i'm looking forward to using my stimulus check for the down payment of my 50 year mortgage and otherwise we will be back of course next monday for yet another macro monday and i'll be back tomorrow with uh and

tell me. Thank you, gentlemen. Another absolutely great Macro Monday. Have a great day.