The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Bounce Or Bull Trap? Has The Crypto Sell-Off Ended?

Episode Date: February 26, 2025

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Is the Bitcoin bottom in or is this yet another bull trap in the crypto market in a larger correction? Are we even still in a bull market? Many would argue that Bitcoin is going all the way down to 70,000 while some think that that's hyperbolic and we're probably just about to go back up. There's nobody better to unpack everything happening with the crypto market than my friend Matt Hogan from Bitwise. You guys don't want to miss this show.

Let's go. What is up everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel, hit that like button. I'm the Wolf of All Streets, but the way that crypto is going, there's going to be no streets left to Wolf. Bitcoin Street seems kind of fine. The other streets, war zone, war zone, Matt. It's been a rough few days, it really has been.

Yeah, Bitcoin Street seems fine, seems like it's bottoming out here, but in the altcoin space, it's just been brutal. I think the world is coming to realize, Scott, that the future of finance is not built on meme coins. And we're adjusting. What? Yeah, I'm telling you. I think that's what's going on.

You heard it here first, people. Libra will not be the global reserve currency. Not gonna be the global reserve currency. It's not gonna be Melania. Yeah, I think that's the story here. It is brutal out there. I think we will find a bottom, but the pain could persist for a little bit.

Yeah, when we say it's been a couple bad days here, actually, from your side, the pond that you play in, which is obviously the ETFs and the institutional side, you could argue it's been the worst days that we've had in 13 to 14 months of these trading. US Bitcoin ETFs see record daily outflow of over 930 million as carry trade loses shine to the 10-year treasury notes. So almost a billion in a day. I think there was 500 million collectively across all the products Monday and 500 million last week across all products. So this is specific to Bitcoin, but they actually I think nailed it here on CoinDesk, which was going to be the point I wanted to discuss, which is this is likely largely the carry trade unwind.

That's exactly right. You have to think of ETF holders in really three buckets. There's hedge funds who are doing the carry trade. They're buying the ETF and then shorting the futures. There are institutional investors who are long only, and then there are retail investors who do a large amount of things. Based on what we can see from our internal flows,

from our customer conversations, et cetera, this looks like it's that top third that's really coming out of the market. The size of the carry trade, the profitability of the carry trade has just collapsed over the last few weeks. And as a result, those people are exiting the market. These other two buckets, institutional is doing great. We're still seeing that flows there. Retail is doing just fine as best we can see, although it's hard to put your finger on that pulse. So I think they had it exactly right. This is the carry trade evaporating.

That's notable. The fact that the carry is shrinking is notable, but that's what's driving the flows from my perspective. We haven't seen the long investors sort of give up on the market yet and capitulate. I don't think that will happen. I actually don't think that will happen, but I don't think it's happened yet if it is going to happen.

I haven't even actually checked the basis of what the carry trade would be right now or why it's generally unwinding. But as I said here, loses shine to the 10 year treasury notes. I'm assuming there's less yield in playing this trade than there is as simply buying treasuries at this point, which is why you could argue this is happening.

For those who don't understand, when you play the carry trade, we've explained it here before, you basically have to buy spot, you short the future because it's in contango, it's at a higher price, and you collect the yield in between as the time passes. It's pretty much free money if you know what you're doing

and you're not doing it with GPTC, we're gonna have to have a 40% premium, which is what collapsed the market last time. But this time, instead of people buying spot Bitcoin, they're buying ETFs to play this trade, because these are institutions that are doing it. So that means that when they just want to unwind the trade, it has nothing to do with their bullishness or bearishness. They literally just have to sell those ETFs that they bought to

participate. That's exactly right. And this has been going on sell those ETFs that they bought to participate. That's exactly right. And this has been going on since the ETFs launched hedge funds. If you look at the 13F filing, Scott, you can see the top holders are Millennium and other hedge funds. Those aren't mostly long only people punting on Bitcoin going to a million. Those are people printing this carry trade often on a levered basis. And that can come in and

out of the market. We have seen it decline in the past. If you look at historical periods where there have been significant outflows from Bitcoin, it's often that carry trade was unwinding, and it will be back. It's not gone forever. So there'll be a few billion dollar days where we'll be all excited about the inflows. If we're not worried about these outflows, we should equally not be excited about those inflows in the future.

This is a trade that comes and goes over time. We've seen quite a few iterations of this. I mentioned the Widowmaker, which was GBTC, but that's because it was this trade, but with GBTC at a premium and then GBTC quickly went to a discount. So that was a 40% to 50% wipeout right there in a couple of months. But we also saw this with MicroStrategy, which actually sent the price of Bitcoin way down not that long ago because people were shorting MicroStrategy and buying underlying Bitcoin and then MicroStrategy short squeezed and they had to sell their Bitcoin to cover.

I think that sent us from like 90 to 80. I can't remember which even period it was, 70 to 60, whatever it was, but you can see it. I mean, it's very obvious. It's 100% true. I mean, the oldest story in crypto is people thinking they've found a free money glitch and then that blowing up and us going

into existential despair because the market pulls back 15% as that unwinds. We've seen it in multiple iterations. MicroStrategy was an example. The carry trade unwind is not quite blowing up, but it does disappear. And from my perspective, you sort of have to ask yourself, has anything fundamentally changed about the Bitcoin story? And I think nothing has fundamentally changed about the Bitcoin story. Institutions are still buying. Governments are still looking at it, Michael Saylor is still aping into it.

Those are the long-term drivers, but the short-term news is bad. It's a short-term news bad, long-term news good. And when you have that set up, the short-term news can win for a while. And I think that's what we're seeing in the market, at least on Bitcoin. So when we talk about short-term news being bad before we get into the obvious long-term news being good, what news do you point at there? For me, it's the buy-bit hack.

And I spoke to my friend at, I'm not allowed to say where he works, I said it rhymes with shitadel, but I spoke with him and he said that Monday morning, Wall Street woke up and found out there was a hack. They didn't know how weekends, right? And so that was certainly part of it, still absorbing Trump and Libra token to some degree, although it's not so much on the radar, but kind of making a few people in institutions a little

bit exhausted or just skeptical of the market as a whole. And then just, you know, the news of Trump relaunching the tariffs on Canada and Mexico and such, and just general market uncertainty. Yeah, I think there's general market negativity, right? And we'll see what happens tonight when Nvidia reports earnings. But I think on the Bybit piece, I think the killer piece there was that Lazarus tried to launder the funds through Pumped Up Fund.

Because I think that spells really the sort of existential death of the meme coin craze. If you have Melania and you have Libra and then you have it being used as a laundering facility, even in this permissive regulatory environment, people are not going to look favorably on North Korean hackers finding a way to launder stolen ETH. That's not going to do well. So I think there's going to be real pressure on the meme coin space. I think that's why you've seen Solana pull back so much and sort of lead us down this path.

And we have to be honest that outside of Bitcoin, the only real story that was sort of present and easily felt over the last six months that was positive was the meme coin story. It was injecting capital into the story. It was injecting capital into the market. It was injecting energy into the market. And I think people are writing that effectively to zero right now. And as a result, we need another story outside of Bitcoin. I think those stories exist. I think you can see green shoots in DeFi. I think you see green shoots in stable coin growth, but they aren't as present and as vibrant as meme coins. And I think the trio of Melania Libra and Lazarus through Bybit, I think it just means

that story is basically over. Of course there'll be bumps, it'll come back, but I think people are writing it to zero. The same way we wrote ICOs to zero in 2018, right? Once those got crushed, I think that's what's happening now. And I think people have also been surprised at how effectively Lazarus has been able to actually continue to launder this ETH on an international stage.

Last I had checked and I haven't even checked this morning, it was four or 500 million they had already been able to sell while everybody's watching. Yeah. It might be up to seven or 800 by now for all I know, but you know, they're still finding ways to get rid of this stuff even with every analyst and on chain sleuth on the planet Watching them. Yeah, and everyone knowing it's them. That's the incredible fact and you can't imagine that that's going to stand, right? I know we've seen you know, the SEC pullback from Coinbase. We've seen the SEC pullback from Uniswap

We're seeing real regulatory relief, we're seeing real legislative process, but that doesn't mean that anything goes, right? And people aren't gonna look favorably upon this because it is happening in plain daylight. And I do think there's gonna be like, there's gonna be a negative second story here on this in three or six months

when people take a hard look at this and try to tighten that up. Yeah, speaking of the market, whether the sell-off has ended or continues, one of your amazing coworkers, Andre, I think he's head of European research, is that, yeah, who's awesome and comes on spaces all the time.

This article is referencing him, Bitcoin's Tuesday bloodbath was the bottom, analyst says. So we kind of have the like Arthur Hayes, who we all love, but he's never right. It's going to 70, 74. I spoke with Peter Brandt, the legendary chartist yesterday on spaces. He thinks 75 is in the cards because we have a double top.

That would still just be a 30% correction in a Bitcoin bull market, which would be still shallow. But right now we're just be a 30% correction in a Bitcoin bull market, which would be still shallow. But right now, we're only at a 20% correction in this market. But Andre thinks the bottom's in. I think it's definitely possible. I think it's in or close. I think it's in or close.

Bottoming is a process. Bottoming is a time period, not an exact point to me. So yeah. No, that is right. I mean, the thing I've been thinking about, Scott, is you remember July, the Bitcoin market sort of ripped up to 72 and then fell back to about 55 in July. And we were all in existential panic. At the time, we were worried about the German government selling Bitcoin and the Mt. Gox distributions. I mean, these stories that just sound ridiculous to us. But we found our bottom there.

We didn't fall back to 30 or 40. And we proceeded to rip up to 100k. If you look at the level of panic fear in the market right now, it is really high. I think if we get decent earnings out of traditional stocks over the next few days I think the bottom could be in if Nvidia comes in and has a terrible quarter and says deep-seek has killed its business And it's gonna go back to video games only then I think you know it could be difficult on the downside

But yeah, Andre looks at a lot of statistical data. He thinks we're close to the bottom. I think that feels right I'll take the over on 80, but we'll have to see. I mean, I just happen to be looking at charts and we've got Bitcoin's RSI oversold on the daily for the first time since the last bottom in August, right? I mean, exactly. And then I pulled up the fear and greed index and looked at it over time and we're at 21,

which is extreme fear. And that's back to the lows from last September and August. So if you like the bottom signals, even mean reversion back to the upside, fear and greed going to a normal place, RSI resetting, we should go back into the 90s here, even on a bounce, you would think. That's exactly right.

And there are a lot of sort of darebit options expiring at the end of the week. I think once we get clear of that, we'll probably see the bottoming cycle. I bet this weekend will be pretty good. But again, that fear number compared to the reality of the fundamentals is just sort of an incredible disparity to me. You know, my good friend Avichal tweeted the other day that opportunity is the difference between fundamentals and perception. And as I look at the market right now, the perception is just

through the floor. I mean, 20 on the fear and greed is absurd. Given what's happening in the market, we forgot that Abu Dhabi is buying, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars, 500 millions of wealth fund in a clip. Yeah, that is exactly right. So and they're not the only ones. No. So I think I think we'll get there. I bet we're closer to the bottom than than many people expect. Avichal from electric capital, I assume. Yes. Yeah. That's a

perfect unexpected segue to this news that crypto asset manager bitwise bolsters balance sheet was 70 million equity rates. If you're wondering why I said that's perfect because it was led by Electric Capital of whom he is the founder and CEO. But you've got some big participants here, MassMutual, HavinCapital, Hump Ventures, Parafide Capital. Listen, this has nothing to do with inflows or outflows, but the fact that you're able to go out and raise 70 million right now should tell people all they need to know about the appetite for exposure to crypto and specifically institutional crypto right now. Yeah, we're really excited about this round and some of the names that are in there.

I think it also speaks to what the largest institutional investors in the world see in terms of money flowing into the crypto market, right? Remember Bitwise is a crypto asset manager. Our business is built on institutions and family offices and financial advisors allocating to this space. And we have, you know, the MIT endowment and MassMutual as you mentioned, and sort of a who's whose list,

really a strong group of investors saying, this is going to be a very big market. I of course hope that they're right. Um, but we're really excited to have this fire power to continue to do the education and product development work and sales meetings. That is core of what Bitwise does. And it's just a huge number. And we were talking about your hands.

And we got you in the picture. 70 million. You were on your way out and they we got you in the picture, 70 million. You were on your way out and they just caught you in the wrong moment. Yeah, this is from a few years ago. We were at a smaller scale. No, it's really wonderful to have that kind of support. And we're an incredible growth phase.

We're over a hundred people now. And this is what helps us do the 20,000 meetings a year that we do talking to institutions about this space. So we're really excited to build from here. Yeah, I mean, taking a look at the fundamentally bullish news, obviously you raising 70 million is a signal, I think for the entire market, as I said,

in the institutional space. But I mean, it's a get bigger than Citadel coming in. Now everybody has their takes. I see people in the comments, Citadel is coming to short it down so that everybody can buy it cheap. Now did market makers, there's gonna make a whole lot of money providing liquidity is what should happen here. And that by the way, they can be agnostic as to their feelings

about it, they can even hate it, they're going to do the thing that makes money. That's exactly right here. I mean, this is this is an incredible reminder that what we're seeing is the birth of a new asset class, which happens like a couple times a century. And you're seeing the largest financial firms in the world moving into this space. You can see it in the people who participated in our round. You can see it in BlackRock going all in. Now we have Citadel. I'd remind people that a few years ago,

you know, we were in the middle of FTX and people were wondering if this thing would exist. And now really you have all the largest players in the market moving in. And I think it's just going to continue. You know, this will have mostly really strong positive impacts on the space. We're gonna see liquidity get better.

We're gonna see arbitrage come in. We're gonna see spreads come in. If you've been a like a bucket shop hedge fund making your money on arbitrage, your days are probably numbered. But for the rest of us who are, you know, going in and buying and selling major assets, particularly in large amounts,

this is a strong net positive for my business. It's gonna be helpful in terms of getting the execution and liquidity that we need. I would argue something else that's gonna be helpful is a thawing regulatory environment. I gotta give so much credit to the SEC right now, which are words I wasn't sure I was ever gonna be able to say again.

Right, because listen, we didn't know what this would factually look like. And we certainly didn't know that Trump would win and that purse would basically end up running a committee. But they have been on a heater of dropping enforcement actions. The latest Uniswap just I think two days ago, it was Robinhood Coinbase at the tail end of last week. It's over.

These guys are not coming after crypto anymore. They might go after criminals and fraudsters who happen to use crypto, but they are not coming after companies in crypto anymore. This one is really, really big. That one is really, really big. Coinbase, I think, was a fairly easy case. They were making a lot of progress in court. This was a shot across the bow of all of DeFi. And to see them pull back from it is really heartening to see and really to me points the direction that we're going. I'd also just note a lot of people are thinking ahead to when we have clear regulation that allows Uniswap to enter the traditional securities markets and all these things. That's all wonderful to think about. But just the relief from not having to battle your regulator as your number one business objective is going to lead to incredible innovation from the likes of Coinbase,

from the likes of Uniswap's labs, and from all these other people that people are taking relief off from XRP, etc. It's hard to overstate how challenging it is to build a business and innovate when the national regulator is suing you and has knocking on your door every day. I think just that relief is an incredible, bullish story. I look at that, and then I look at a $1.6 billion hack where people got their money back or a meme coin that failed and one is just so much bigger than the other. It really makes this look like an opportunity. So I love the Uniswap news.

I love the Coinbase news. The SEC is delivering on sort of the hopes that we had when we had this transition and it makes me really excited. What are the other sort of fundamental tailwinds that you are seeing right now, even amongst this dip? I mean, we've had obviously the story of wirehouses slowly coming online, people gaining access. We know that that is all happening. Is there anything else glaring

that you're looking at right now? I mean, it's like, I don't, it's just, it's crazy to me that people are disappointed, I think, with what's been happening in the Trump administration to some degree. And you look at every single person is a Bitcoiner. They're just mad that he hasn't said Bitcoin strategic reserve. I don't really, I don't really get it because I mean, nothing is better than what we just described at the SEC. We got CFTC, Treasury, Commerce,

literally everyone's a Bitcoiner. It's ridiculously bullish. We're gonna look back at a year and gonna laugh at the fact that we were worried at this particular moment. I mean, for Bitcoin specifically, the story is just so simple. The market producing 165,000 Bitcoin a year. ETFs are buying half a million.

Corporations are buying 300,000. Governments will probably buy something like $500,000 to a million over the next year or two. Those numbers are just bigger than the supply. I think that's the easiest story, maybe the easiest investing setup that I've ever seen. I think it's the single best time in history to buy Bitcoin from a risk-adjusted risk-burn basis. Outside of Bitcoin- Because it's not going to zero anymore? It's not going to zero. We've chopped the left tail.

So much has to happen for my bullish thesis to not come in Bitcoin. It's hard for me to imagine. The other area that I just can't keep my eye off is DeFi. I look at stable coin AUM at an all time high, tokenized real world assets at an all time high, the relief to platforms like Uniswap from the SEC. I look at Jupiter throwing the fee switch, Uniswap moving to its chain.

The DeFi market has demonstrated its works, right? The technology works. Technology is incredible. The lending is incredible. The staking is incredible. The trading is incredible. But we've had two big problems. One is for regulatory reasons, it could only really exist in the crypto casino. It couldn't expand beyond that. And then two, for regulatory reasons, we had to have tokens that had no value, that were like linked to governance. And when you combine those two,

of course it was constrained. But if you look at things like the Jupiter fee switch and the amount of revenue they're now generating, or you look at things like Unichain and imagine how that tokenomics plays out, and look at stablecoins going to a trillion plus dollars. I just think that's a sector that is, you know, that is ready for an enormous bull market that people have forgotten about.

But every fundamental statistic I look at suggests that it's rounded and coming right up the curve. So I'm spending some time thinking about that. Yeah, I interviewed Stani from Aave two days ago. It'll be out on Sunday. It's one of the long form interviews. And I was actually pretty astounded when I was doing quick research for that

on the metrics of DeFi and specifically Aave right now. I mean, they're at all time high, everything, you know, like wallets, amount, TVL, locked in there, everything, and nobody talks about it. And his point was, because DeFi now isn't exciting. Like now meme coins are exciting. DeFi is boring because it works and you can just kind of so rare in crypto for the fundamentals to outpace the speculation. But that's what's happening in DeFi. We've just forgotten about it because it's been dead for two plus years.

But everything, as you mentioned, is that all- That's the thing, the tokens are dead, but DeFi is thriving. DeFi is thriving. And I think the tokens are going to come back. I think they're going to figure out ways to drive token value now that we have a more

reasonable regulatory environment. Right. They had to have sort of spooky action at a distance tokens. And I think you're seeing them start to turn on fee switches and turn on other approaches to monetization. And when you get rapid all time highs in TVL and use and real economic drivers of the tokens, I think this market could move really fast once people realize what's going on. I think we both agree and continue to say that stable coins have been the killer app,

as you mentioned, for crypto. And as long as those are going up, that means there's a ton of new money obviously coming into the ecosystem as a whole. Does anything about the the regulation being proposed concern you right? Because we have, you know, Hagerty on one side with Genius and Lummis saying we got to pass this to do this. I think people would rationally be like they might get it better than Maxine Waters proposing the SPF version on the other side, maybe,

right. But stablecoins are the low hanging fruit. I think we will see regulation. But if for some reason that regulation says you have to be a licensed United States federal bank to issue or utilize a stable coin, that can be really bad for the market if Tether is effectively or there's even been people talking about Tether not being allowed to invest in treasuries as a result of this. I mean, it'd be so stupid. It's so stupid. If you go back, we talked right around the Trump administration coming in. We talked about the biggest risks in this market. And what I said was the biggest risk is politicians

messing it up because they're humans. And that's... I'm terrified, I'm really unhappy that we're seeing that being pushed. I mean, I saw Jeremy Allaire speaking today about, you know, these dollar-based stable coins having to register and be located in the United States, they shouldn't get a free pass. That kind of poor regulation would probably be more damaging than no regulation is my guess.

It would be great for him. It would be great for him. It would be great for him. I love Jeremy. I love Jeremy, but that's talking his book. He is saying, hey, let us play and kick Tether out. That's exactly right. And also just from an American perspective, we don't want to ban the 15th largest holder from buying treasuries.

Someone has to buy our debt. So I think we need to get reasonable regulation. I don't wanna see the crypto industry try to fight for their slice of the pie. And what we should be focusing on is growing the pie 100X from where we are. So I do worry what we're seeing in that market, sort of classical Washington politicking,

and it's not pretty. Before I let you go, I think we all agree whether the Bitcoin bottom is 74 to 85 or 90, wherever we end up here that we all want to own Bitcoin long-term. Is there anything that fundamentally is worrying you about the altcoin market, seeing it perform so poorly? Like I could see an argument that the Solano top

is in for this cycle, even if there's a a massive all coin move if people just get tired of memes I don't know if they will or they won't but and I'm not saying Solana doesn't have other fundamental use cases I'm saying it flew the highest the earliest because of the meme coin casino. Yeah, that's exactly right the challenge for the sort of all the alt layer ones is That the the fundamentals aren't going to catch up for a while, right? That the things we're talking about in DeFi, real world assets, even stable coins, that sort of 10x growth in those markets is maybe 12 months out or 24 months out, right? That's going to take a while to happen. And I worry a little bit about the psychology of the market as the meme

coin boom sort of dies a complete death, which is what I expect over the next few months. So there could there could still be some pain there. I think that's probably a long term opportunity. But look, you know, I do make the analogy back to the regulators stopping on the neck of the ICO market. And that sent us into a crypto winner for a long period of time. I don't think that's the case here because I think the Bitcoin story is too strong and the defy story is too strong. But I think it's going to wash itself out. To be honest, this is one of those self-regulatory mechanisms.

It's beautiful to crypto. I think people just get tired of it. It kind of just becomes not, it doesn't go away, but it becomes so much smaller that it doesn't, it's not the narrative. I think that's right. I think that's right. But I do think the hangover for Solana and some of the hangover for some of the alt layer ones could continue for a while until we see those sort of real world assets, stable coins, DeFi really perk up. But for me, that's just an

opportunity, right? If I'm investing for the next five years, then I'm dollar cost averaging into the weakness and making sure I build my position during these short term sort of psychologically driven pullback. I absolutely agree. Guys, give Matt a follow on X. Always appreciate you having you here. Congratulations on the raise. It's awesome. I didn't honestly, I didn't know about it till I showed up for the show today and like I started opening articles So congrats on that you guys keep a good secret the next one They're not gonna be able to fit your hands on the screen from your lips, man

I hope so well congratulations on that and thank you as always for being here Matt. Thanks, Scott Alright everyone, we have no Chris today on the back half of the show because I have to go on Yahoo Finance in 10 minutes I'm gonna put on a jacket like Matt and try to look professional and talk about the crypto crash from the other side But of course before we do that It's Wednesday, which means we're talking about Aptos. You can see it way up there in the corner Look, if I take this off, you can see then I can point at it Right there. I think that works Yeah

huge news coming here from Aptos as you can see enabling the next unicorns on the chain built for billion user scale. The TLDR here is that the Aptos Foundation is committing fresh ecosystem funding, projecting more than 200 million in new DeFi grants investments and expand the operations to enable the next generation of unicorn founders to grow on the world's fastest, most builder friendly L1 built for scale. We talk about the metrics in DeFi,

I talked about metrics in Aave, all of that exhibited best on Aptos that sees every single month a massive increase in usage, TVL, a massive increase in wallets. I've showed you all of it. Well now injecting $200 dollars into their ecosystem to build things that are not meme coin casinos. Thank God. It is really amazing here. Love to see it. You guys should check out Aptos. If you're developers, consider developing on Aptos and just take a good

look at everything that they're doing. Thank you guys. I do need to run got to go on the Yahoo Finance TV thing and cope on behalf of the industry as usual until tomorrow guys see you then bye Let's go.