The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Breakout Is Imminent | Institutions Are Getting Ready To Go All In On Crypto

Episode Date: November 14, 2024

Mike Alfred, one of Bitcoin's most ardent bulls, joins me today to share his insights into the volatile crypto market. Wondering what's next for Bitcoin? Tune in to find out! In the second part of the show, Dan from The Chart Guys will share his market analysis and some trades.  Mike Alfred: https://x.com/mikealfred The Chart Guys: https://www.youtube.com/@ChartGuys  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Skyrocket The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin topped $93,000 yesterday, making a new all-time high every day since election night, except for Saturday. This has been yet another historic move, yet unsurprising for those of us who have been there before and see what Bitcoin can really do. But the next question is, is another Bitcoin breakout imminent? Are we going to see that 100,000 soon? Will it happen by the end of the year? When is it coming? Also, we have institutions getting ready to go all in on crypto. Not my words. Those are from a Signum survey, which we will discuss. But more than anything, I have my good friend Mike Alfred here, who sadly, we canceled the show because we were actually hanging out drinking wine in Vegas. So it's been a couple

of weeks since we've been able to get that rescheduled. But the good news is now with Bitcoin trading over $90,000, he can do a little river dance on the grave of the bears that he has long been predicting would die and right on schedule. Guys, you do not want to miss this show. And of course, Dan from Chart Guys on the back half to look at the charts. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. It is dancing day. Bears are dead. Ding dong. The bears are dead.

And nobody has been more aggressive saying that they would be dead than my friend, Mike Alfred. Do you have out your dancing shoes? Are we going to do a full Michael Flatley river dance, you know, where the legs move really fast, but your upper body stays still. Can you do that? It's too soon. Too soon. Too soon. This is the, this is still the first or second inning of the, of the parabolic. This is exactly what you said was going to happen. Yeah. And if I look at your title from our last, well, one of our last meetings, I think it was late April. It says Bitcoin to 90,000 soon. I think six months counts as soon enough. And I think the important thing is that that confidence never wavered. It doesn't waver. My view on Bitcoin doesn't change based on price action. So unlike the chart squigglers and the kid analysts who are largely prisoners of price action and who get

bearish when it goes down and get bullish when it goes up. My view on it is totally fundamentally anchored. And so I think this is all part and parcel of what we should expect. And of course, we're headed a lot higher from here. So you just made the, I think, obvious point that this is just the beginning. So if we look at Bitcoin cyclically fundamentals, the tailwinds that obviously exist, especially with the new administration, this should just be the beginning. A lot of people are already saying, wow, what a move. This must be the top time to take profit. But we just broke the all-time high a week and a half ago and headed into price discovery. And we haven't really seen the rest of the market kick into gear, which traditionally happens kind of at this time. So nothing about this right now is screaming to you that it's over,

I'm assuming, as you alluded to. There's literally no... So there's no retail interest whatsoever still, right? People are starting to call their friends and they're starting to text me and say, hey, should I do this? Should I do that? Whatever. But no real interest like we've seen previous cycles. The fee market hasn't spiked at all yet. The Bitcoin miners need to go up three to five X at a minimum before I'll even start looking for a top. So until you see that major move where the big miners go up two to three X, like you don't even start looking for the top until then.

There's so much CapEx going in. The hash rate's going to go up a lot more, right? So there's just, there's going to be a ton of announcements too about sovereigns, right? Like major Middle Eastern sovereigns, major governments in South America, maybe legal tender announcements. There's going to be corporate balance sheet announcements potentially from the MAG-7 by the end of the cycle. So anyone who's calling for the night, I've been saying this for a while, like even at

55K, 60K, I said, when we break out out to all time highs, people are going to try to call the top. And that's the most dangerous time, right? Because just because we went up recently does not mean Bitcoin's overvalued. In fact, Bitcoin's getting cheaper on some metrics as, as time passes. Right. And so 90 K Bitcoin seems like more or less the right level today, but in a few weeks, it could be 100. And in a few months, it could be 125 or 150. And at some point next year, it could be 200 or more. And so I think now's the time to be looking at your portfolio and saying, how do I add

exposure if I don't have enough? People like me are probably overexposed. So I'm just doing nothing. You can never own enough Bitcoin. But at the same time, if you have a lot of Bitcoin exposure, you're probably okay. But there are definitely people who've been watching this closely, but haven't acted. And you don't probably want to wait too much longer at this point. Yeah. I looked at my portfolio recently, and I was like, not only am I way overexposed to crypto beyond Bitcoin, but also when I look at

my stock portfolio, it's like MicroStrategy and Coinbase and IRIN. And so I found every creative way to be exposed to Bitcoin, even in the parts where I'm not just holding on to spot. But speaking of those, you mentioned, obviously, that you think miners have to do a two or three X from here. Right now, we've actually been seeing some miners dip, right, kind of on this move. You went on a bit of a tweet storm here. It's pretty clear to me what's happening. The firms that are short proxies in size, I'm assuming proxies are those stocks that you can trade kind of as a proxy to Bitcoin, are trying to cover before the rest of the market realizes that Bitcoin's breaking out over 100,000 imminently.

They have limited time, so they're pulling out all the tricks in their bags and large players are holding Bitcoin under 90,000. They've executed a complex set of trades across spot equity markets to pin miners and other proxies at these levels. So it's more economical to cover huge shorts. The trading signatures are obvious. A major breakout is a major break is imminent. Can you tell me like what you're seeing here? You know, why would miners be going down on the days that Bitcoin is continually making all time highs? And what does that mean from a trading perspective? Well, I think the biggest thing to understand is that the short interest in these names is really high. So there are a lot of forces in the market that would prefer that they don't go up. Also remember, unlike MicroStrategy, the miners are mostly small cap

and sometimes micro cap names, so they're easier to move. And so if you are caught in a scenario, which I think is what happened over the last week, where you didn't think Bitcoin was going to break out to all-time highs, right? The consensus was that 60K Bitcoin or 70K Bitcoin was the top of the cycle in the TradFi land. And these guys largely trade equities. They trade equities more than spot Bitcoin, obviously. A lot of these firms didn't even touch the spot Bitcoin market until the ETFs launched. So they're using them as a leg of a pair trade, right? Long Bitcoin,

short miner, long Bitcoin, short micro strategy, futures versus spot, et cetera. So there's all these arbitrage trades going on. And so you'll see these cataclysmic days where it just feels like all the liquidity is moving from one place to the other. You did see it yesterday in small caps broadly, right? The IWm opened up like plus one percent and finished down one percent so like the post cpi uh ppi there's always like some repositioning and so um also by the way the miners tend to lead so the miners kind of know and some of the miners more so than others i've noted like i'm not going to give away all my alpha but I can tell when Bitcoin's about to at least slow down in its momentum because some of the miners that tend to lead the rest of the miners tend to turn down first or don't respond to the

up move. So there's some predictive component to this and there's some manipulative component to it where for sure there are firms that are short and you can see it, it's like a washing machine. They run tens of millions of shares of trading through a name in a day, but they don't move the name very much. And then a week later, the price has moved away from that level. There's also a lot of options related manipulation. There's a lot of call options that people bought over the last couple of months that are expiring this week, next week, the week after that are in the money now.

So there's a bit of stuff going on there. I don't think it's going to matter. I think we've got six or so full trading weeks left this year. I think Cypher is going to go into the $10 to $15 window at some point in that six-week period. We're at 660. It's probably going to open down this morning. Again, perfect time. There's one last layup potential maybe to add or get in. I think Iron can go over 20 by the end of the year. It's at 11 or 12. Right now, it could go in the 20 to 25 range easily. And then I think CleanSpark can go into the 25 to $35 range fairly easily. And those are just three examples.

So you know it's over here. And I'm pretty confident about this because all Bitcoin really needs to do is stay at these levels. What we saw over the summer and at other points over the last 18 months is that when Bitcoin's really ripping, it actually sucks all the air out of the room. And a lot of the other proxies don't behave well during... It's like all coins. Honestly, now that it's a publicly... Now that we have publicly traded proxies for Bitcoin that maybe we didn't have in past cycles, the same behavior you see with Bitcoin dominance versus

altcoins is effectively happening with all the proxies. Right. So what you might see is Bitcoin consolidate in this 90 to 95K range for a while and the proxies double in that window. And we've seen that before, so it wouldn't be unusual to see that. Or Bitcoin goes over 100 and consolidates between 100 and 105 for two months and the proxies triple. Predicting that is sort of impossible. What I'll tell you though, is that those assets are wildly undervalued at these prices, particularly the ones that have a dual exposure to both Bitcoin and AI and haven't announced an AI deal yet. I think that should be pretty clear to most people. And then the other factor is the dollar and rates and yields.

Obviously, rates are coming down. The market thinks with a high probability we're going to get another 25 basis point cut. I think yields will back off. Yesterday, it looked like they were going to back off and then they firmed back up again. I think it's like PTSD from the 50 basis point cut before where they cut 50 and then yields firmed, right? Like mortgage rates actually went back up. And then the dollar is really strong because of exuberance about Trump. I think that will wear off as reality sets in, like when he starts choosing cabinet members and he chooses some wonky names here and there for positions and people realize once again, that he's an imperfect human and he's not the panacea for all things in the world. The dollar will eventually cool off and

that will also lead to rallies in some of the proxies. So look, I think you want to be long everything. We've talked about this for several years now, but you want to be long Coinbase, you want to be long MicroStrategy, you want to be long Bitcoin, ETH, Solana even, miners. You basically want to be long everything. And for this part of the cycle, certain proxies will outperform others for periods of time. That'll lead some of the commentary in the echo chamber to be like, oh, look, see, miners are the worst thing in the world. Or look, Ethereum is terrible compared to Solana. Or look, MicroStrategy sucks today, therefore it's no longer good. And

Sailor's going to sell all the shares in the ATM. It's just going to be a running commentary every few months. But when you look back every quarter, all these names are going to be materially higher probably for the next year. And the only mistake you can make is either not being in them or shuffling in and out of whichever one has performed the best very recently. Because there will be mean reversion, right? So MicroStrategy runs really, really far, then it consolidates. The miners double or triple, then they consolidate. Like Bitcoin runs really hard, then it consolidates. Ethereum, Solana, vice versa, right? So the thing you don't want to be doing is chasing the recent outperforming. You just want to stay positioned in whatever you believe in and be able to hold it through the rest of the cycle. It's not rocket

science. They've been saying this from the bottom. I'm not saying there's no things to buy, but I mean, come on, man. If you haven't gotten positioned in six months of sideways after an all-time high, then I'm sorry. It's one of those things. So somebody here said, Mike is absolutely one of the best ex-trolls out there. This is from Crypto Golfer. Thank you. That means it's working. Your plan is coming to fruition. I love this tweet because I want to know if this is a troll or not. Just got to call out of the blue because it sounds like one of your classics. It was someone important and they said someone huge is buying Bitcoin in size tonight.

I almost couldn't believe it when they said the name wild. We are going so much higher. By the way, that was November 10th and we did go so much higher. Yeah, you know, there's something in poker concept revolving around bluff frequency and you're supposed to bluff like at whatever frequency is game theory optimal meaning like even when you're uncomfortable doing it you're supposed to bluff so that the so that people never know they can never guess based on any sort of tell like a bet sizing tell or frequencies tell and so i tweet like that right like probably about half from a game theory optimal standpoint are

like spot on true and the other half are total bluffs um and the whole point of that is so you can never guess which one is which um and like you remember like earlier this year i said trump's going to meet with all the miners and the there's going to be pictures on the internet the next 24 hours of miners uh you know mining ceos with with And people are like, no way that you're so full of shit. And then what happened next 24 hours? Pictures of mining CEOs with Trump. So occasionally I throw in the obvious layup ones where it's just going to be an easy proof point. This is not one that I'm going to disclose. I'm going to let you guess. But I'll give you a hint. There's definitely sovereigns that are active.

That's happening. That's happening. There's too much smoke for there not to be fire on that one. So listen, we have the Bitcoin breakout is imminent. I think when you're looking at it from a trading perspective, what's happening with the proxies that we all know 100K is coming and probably higher. It doesn't have to happen this week. It doesn't have to happen this month. The next half of the title, institutions are getting ready to go all in on crypto. That's from this article here on CoinDesk. Institutions go all in on crypto. Signum survey reveals 57% respondents plan to boost allocations. A notable 65% of the survey respondents are bullish long-term with 63% mulling more allocation

to digital assets in the next three to six months. I mean, a lot of this obviously is related to price going up, but most of it related to Trump. And really, I think just a thawing of the regulatory and legislative environment and just this repeated hammering of the narrative of Bitcoin and the ETFs and Larry Fink over the last year or two years. But it's really happening. I mean, largely these respondents are people who were dismissive to Bitcoin three or four years ago and to crypto in general. Yeah, the institutions are here. I was one cycle too early, right? I saw all those conversations happening. I saw BlackRock moving last cycle. And I thought more would happen in 2021. But because of SBF and Three Arrows and Terra Luna and Celsius and block five,

and the list goes on like that, that cycle is curtailed before we really got to see that. But I think it's probably healthier. We're, we're building the industry now on, on much, on a much better foundation, right? Like, like fidelity is custodying some of the Bitcoin this time, right. At scale via the ETF, right. Black blackrock is is involved in the space right the the micro strategies of the world have fasb gap ability now to mark up the value of their holdings at bitcoin right makes it easier for all these other smaller companies to follow in their their footsteps so the the rails have been laid uh i don't know what else to say we've sort of said it all i mean we were talking about all this stuff over the last couple of years at much lower

prices and all those things were always coming. And so if you understood that, then you didn't get carried away with the traders telling you that the top was 27K in October last year. I remember spaces with you and Myron Nafal and you got all these high-end chart trader guys and they're all these high-end chart trader guys, and they're all raising their hand. Somebody asked, can Bitcoin break out over 30K this year? And they all said no. And that was in October. And yeah, look, sentiment was bearish and the chart didn't look good then. But this is where fundamentals matter. Over longer periods of time,

fundamentals rule out over any technicals. What tends to happen is the guys say, the chart looks terrible, right? And the chart does look terrible in the short term. But three months later, well, the chart's starting to look better. But by the time they say that, the stock or the crypto's doubled. And then by the time they say the chart looks great, it's topping. It's up 5x, right? And so we're at the part of the cycle where everyone's going to tell you it's bullish because it's so obvious. But hopefully next cycle, people will pay more attention closer to the bottom to what's happening fundamentally and what's going to lead the next cycle. This could be a super cycle, though. Candidly, it could be one of these cycles that runs out into 26 or 27 and doesn't really

pull back substantially. I would love to see Bitcoin do that just to defy people who say it has to go down 70%, 80%. I'm not one of those people. I think it's likely to do that again, but I don't think it's required. I think it's possible because of the factors that you're describing that we could run right through 25 into 26 and not see a major drawdown. So one of the big news stories that we just had, obviously, is the inflows of the ETFs, $4.7 billion over six days. I mean, this is just astounding support of the institutions or here narrative, obviously. But Bitcoin becomes seventh largest asset in the world. It's now eighth. So at the top, it had become the seventh. But a story nobody's talking about is that Bitcoin just surpassed silver. I mean, it's the eighth year because it had passed Saudi Aramco when it was at 93,000,

but obviously retracing back to around 90. This market cap is exceptionally close. Bitcoin's bigger than silver. And the only thing that's not bigger than Bitcoin is gold. And the world's basically, once we pass Saudi Aramco, the five largest tech companies. Even Meta is well below Bitcoin now. I mean, this is an asset that has to be talked about and included in portfolios now. There's just no way this can be avoided when you're the seventh or eighth largest asset in the world and you see the success of the ETFs. I saw a chart of fastest ETFs to $40 billion or something, and it was literally years. And then

iBit is like here, right? I mean, BlackRock's ETF is basically a straight line up and the others are these long, you know, it's insane. Bitcoin's just so much more reflexive than those other assets too, right? So like if Bitcoin goes to 100 or 150, it's very likely to go to 200. And if it goes to 200, it's very likely to go to 200 and if it goes to 200 it's very likely to go to 250 and that's partially because the fundamentals actually improve when the price goes up whereas like the higher and higher nvidia goes the riskier it is to buy it i think buying putting a new dollar into nvidia right now versus bitcoin is insane right like actually it's a pretty good pair trade uh long bitcoin short nvidia because Because if you do get significant macro downside,

like the QQQ draws down 30%, Bitcoin probably will go down 30%. But if you look out a few years from now, Bitcoin will be higher and NVIDIA might not. And again, some of that has to do with just valuation and relative fundamental valuation. I think Bitcoin's going into that top two position this cycle. I don't think it'll challenge gold as of right now. I think we're talking about like an $800,000, $900,000 plus Bitcoin price. I think that's maybe only a 5% or less type of odds. I think the vast majority of likely outcomes put bitcoin between kind of like 150 and like 350 somewhere in that range that's like the most likely area for for it to

go and and anywhere in that area particularly like over 200k is going to put it above most of those tech assets and then i do think the liquidity cycle turns over back half of 25 going into 26 potentially and so that'll cause potentially like a 30 40 50 drawdown and and all of those things uh and and we saw that in 2022 right like we saw 50 60 70 percent drawdowns and and pretty much all the large tech stocks including metas right like meta was down 30 in 10 minutes overnight yeah it was a shit coin in 2022. And that's what happens when liquidity gets withdrawn. People forget, right? Like people, people, people forget very easily. Like a lot of people join the market after March of 2020. Right. So

like they saw this dip and then they saw people going nuts with options and zero days and short term trading using stimulus money. And so they are not familiar with longer-term market structures. But when liquidity dries up, the best companies in the world still go down a lot. And when liquidity dries up, the best asset in the world, Bitcoin, still goes down a lot. And that'll happen again. It'll happen probably, candidly, Scott, at the moment that most people don't think it's possible anymore. So when you start to hear a lot of people banging the drum on like Bitcoin's never going to go down again, like it's a super cycle forever, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. When you start to hear that for a few weeks to a few months max, that's when it'll turn over. And I'll be on your show to tell you, hey, that's my job is to

be the voice of reason both at the bottom and at the top. Right. And it's like, you don't always get the exact timing. Right. But like, you should be able to get close. You should know when you see enough heuristics that are in your model. Right. Like the Coinbase app store ranking at a certain level. Right.

Like fees on the network at a certain level, mining valuations at a certain level. You should look at, you should go look at the market. Your, your, your, your barber telling you how he just bought peanut.

Yeah, or your tennis pro telling you that he made 10X on something. You'll know. The problem is that most people don't resist that. They actually jump in and participate. And George Soros will tell you, look, you make a lot of money in bubbles. It's true, right? You want to lean in a little bit at the beginning stages of a bubble, but you don't want to be all in at the top of a bubble because that's a good way to lose a lot of money. Again, right now, there's no bubble at all. Bitcoin's literally just discovering a new

fundamental level that represents more or less what it's accomplished, the cycle. And I still think it's too low, probably needs to go to 120 or 150 before I'll feel confident that we're like pricing in the Trump victory, we're pricing in the gap accounting stuff, we're pricing in the sovereign mining, et cetera. And we're just not there yet. And by the way, the point I've been making recently that I think a lot of people don't get yet is that AI as a trend, as a mega trend has completely converged with Bitcoin at the energy layer. So people who are bullish on AI and are not bullish on Bitcoin, they don't understand what they're talking about. They haven't done the work, right? Because at the energy layer, all you're doing is converting large scale, grid connected energy using a chip, whether an ASIC or GPU,

into some sort of compute power. How you monetize that is up to you. You can monetize it via a client in a managed cloud solution for AI and you could charge them $2. You can go to Bitcoin and you can charge the network in terms of block rewards. So you're just monetizing energy and it's the same large scale process that's going to play out over the next 10, 20, 30 years. And I think once people really get that, like Bitcoin success is AI success and vice versa. If Bitcoin is successful, the build out to the grid and renewables that is needed to support AI's growth will happen. If Bitcoin is not successful, it's harder to do that, right? Because Bitcoin is a curtailable load. So you can build out large scale infrastructure and then you can shut off the Bitcoin whenever you need to, whenever prices spike. AI needs to be on, like it needs to be almost 100% uptime most of the time for most

applications. And so it needs like a load balancer. And in addition to the fact that most AI agents and applications will prefer Bitcoin because it's algorithmic money. So I just think there's so many touch points there that like Bitcoin is just behind in terms of the consensus expectations. AI is a little bit ahead because everybody already loves it. But when you look closely at it, it's like the same thing at the energy layer. Yeah. So we have to quickly talk at least a little politics. Republicans keep control of US House, ushering in crypto-friendly lawmakers to lead key committees. So the red wave, the sweep has officially happened basically as of yesterday, although everybody sort of knew it was coming. We have a lot of legislation that people are hoping we can get through in the first

hundred days or so. Market structure, stable coins, of course, global reserve. Actually, just as an aside, I'm trying to find it. But I know that some people like Novogratz said he doesn't think the reserve will happen. But if it does, Bitcoin goes to 500,000. But I don't know if you saw this. It's a rumor right now from credible sources. But it's a rumor that Trump has said to his transition team, he wants to eliminate all capital gains taxes on cryptocurrencies issued by US companies. So there's a few that have been, but effectively, this will be wooing both offshore cryptos to come back and launch in the United States. But now, according to this, Americans couldn't do anything, but you'll be able to actually start a company legally,

launch a token. And then for you and the traders that touch that token, there would be no capital gains taxes. There's nothing that could be more bullish for crypto in the United States than this. Yeah, look, the Democrats really, really fucked up. Being nefarious, being adversarial to this industry, it was one of the greatest political mistakes in all of history. And I don't think another major presidential candidate will be able to win an election in the U S ever again, unless they come out strongly in support of Bitcoin and crypto the, the lobbying power,

right? Like it's the industry is about money. It's about monetary value, digital monetary value. And so like, if it works, then the people who are involved in crypto have a lot of money and they can influence politics the same way that the oil industry did or pharmaceutical industry did

historically so people say it's some sort of like nefarious thing that crypto is influencing politics um they're they're not like studying history we've just caught up guys like we're actually just starting to be legitimate because we're i mean it's it's absurd there's nothing that's ever happened in this country in the last 40, 50, 100, I have no idea how many years, that wasn't driven by the lobby of a powerful industry. So we're just dropping the bucket. We're just doing exactly what everyone else did. And it makes sense. That's what you do. You advocate for your interests. The good thing for the United States, though, is if Bitcoin is embraced and crypto is embraced, we will be more competitive for potentially hundreds

of years into the future. So this is all good. Let's change the Senate Banking Committee. Let's change the custody rules. Let's change the taxation. Let's streamline things. Let's stop prosecuting Americans or suing them or over-regulating them for things that they're doing that are going to help the country be more competitive into the future. So look, it's a no brainer for that reason alone. I feel good about my vote. Um, you know, like I never really liked Donald Trump. I still don't think he's like a particularly great, uh, human being, but it doesn't matter because I'm voting for the, for what's the best path for the U S can you imagine like if Kamala had one, like what would we be talking about right now versus what we get to talk

about today? Like it would suck. Right. It would just, it would suck in relative. They'd be like, we love Gary Gensler so much. We're going to give him a promotion.

Right. And like, we, we know he needs to be fired. Like we know he's been a terrible regulator, but that's what you were voting for. If you voted for Kamala and that's why she didn't win. People just aren't as stupid as you think they are.

People apparently voted for this as well, or at least that's the conspiracy theory. I don't know if you saw this, but the FBI seizes Polymarket CEO's phone electronics after betting platform predicts Trump win. So some are saying this is like the last attempt to go after someone they think influenced the election, but they're saying that it's because they allowed American citizens to use Polymarket. This is effectively the same as when they said that Binance allowed Americans through VPN to trade on Binance. They're saying that they allowed Americans to use polymarket. But man, the optics of this a week after the election are just astounding. Yeah, especially when the special counsel stopped all the litigation and investigations on Trump now that he's the president-elect. It seems weird to go after some 20-something-year-old

kid in his quasi-dorm room apartment in Soho. Kind of sad, right? This is the last gasp of irrelevance for the Democrats. I think it's going to be a long time before the Democrats are relevant again. The problem is there's so many relevant Republicans right now that are future forward, focusing on how we're going to win as a country. And the Democrats are still trying to tell you that because you're Black, you should vote for us, or because you're poor, you should vote for us. And people just don't care about that anymore. They want a better life for their families. And if you don't offer a solution to that, and you tell people why they can't do stuff, and you arrest people who are

doing innovative things, then people will get the point. You're just not really that interested in economic vitality. So I think, unfortunately for the Democrats, I'm just not sure they're going to be a relevant party for a while unless they can totally change their ideology. They need to look ahead instead of look back. Yeah, totally agree. Mike, we kept you a couple minutes over time but any last thoughts before i uh i let you go it's just early early cycle stay long bitcoin miners i do expect quite a rip out of the miners over the next couple months and then again over the next quarter or two i just think this is the prime time this is why you why you're in the space for this type of opportunity so don't get scared out by all the volatility

in the very short term. I have a close friend who was another Voyager creditor, like has been through multiple cycles. And he was like, I sold my Bitcoin at 84. Amazing. Like, I can't believe it. It finally went there and took a day to be texting me about his FOMO when it was in the 90s

and asked me if she'd buy back it. Watch what happens when it goes to 200. This is what leads to parabolic advances. There are people, and I'm not criticizing him, but they're, and listen, he, you know, he's like, I want the money. Like, it's good. This is great for me. It's like, and I get that. Like if it's a life-changing situation for you, you've been waiting a long time, but you will have FOMO immediately afterwards when it continues to go up. And this is what drives parabolic advances, right? Because most people don't buy again at 150. They're going to hate themselves at 150. And eventually they just won't be able to handle it and they'll buy back in. And there'll be people who chased at 200 or 250 or whatever, wherever it goes. And that's what leads to blow off tops.

So we need people, we need them as like human sacrifices basically for our bull market. It's sad, right? I try to warn people never to behave like that. Um, but that's what people do. So. Well, the human sacrifices, we'll see them in Valhalla when we join them one day and we'll all be happy drinking wine together. Mike, thank you so much guys. Absolutely follow Mike Alfred. Uh, and then you can decide whether he's trolling or being serious on every seventh tweet. Hard to tell. He's a master at it. But more than anything, he's been on this show many, many times for many, many years and directionally has always been correct.

So a voice worth listening to. I have to say, when we were standing at that craps table and you and James, so I was standing at craps table after going to dinner. We had this huge dinner and you and James, my friend, I was with two friends who are heavily invested in miners, but they're not necessarily Bitcoin guys. And they were just listening to Mike and James, like for two straight hours, just back and forth about Bitcoin, bullish, bullish, bullish. And these guys were just on their phones, like taking notes to what to buy the next day. You know, they're smart guys, but man, it was, you know, when you get going,

you guys were relentless on it. A lot of fun to listen to. Love the stuff. Thanks for hosting and thanks for dinner. It was really good. Yeah, you're welcome, man. All right. We'll do it again soon. Thanks, Mike. Everybody, give him a follow. Have a good one. All right. All right, guys. Now it's time to dig into what the actual charts are saying. And man, it is crazy. I'm just looking now, Bitcoin back already up to 91,770. Every one of these dips getting bought up hard, man. So you were on last week. We were pretty excited that we had broken out. I think we were

kind of in the mid-70s. Yeah, I wanted $80,000 to make it a bit convincing and certainly far exceeded those expectations. And it's a convincing breakout. Yeah, I guess we kind of got above 80 and closed right there on Sunday. And, you know, this week took another 13K train ride to 93,000 and still climbing again. I mean, you look at this chart, it's like every single day in this week, you get these big dips, right? These are obviously just like leverage being flushed. I mean, I think there was a billion dollars in leverage on one of these WICs. And it was mostly longs, which is just astounding to me that you can be directionally this right and be so bad with leverage that you lose all your money. But still, every one of these dips, every morning, it seems it dips and then the market kind of gets close to opening or opens and we see it

rocking up again. So I don't know if that's coincidence, but I have to think there's something there. Yeah. I mean, it's extremely strong. We know daily consolidation is inevitable. It's going to happen. And when it does, you know, it'll be a 10% pullback, but it's not happening yet. And we got just this four-hour timeframe that's up right now. And EMA 12 support this red line. We've just been holding it the entire breakout. So we can say that we will not see daily consolidation if this is support. And when we lose it for the first time, will not see daily consolidation if this is support. And when we lose it for the first time, that likely means daily consolidation is coming. That's when we look for hourly oversold conditions to get a nice bounce and things like that. But it's definitely...

One message I keep saying is don't short a blue sky bowl. Because one of the ways people will be underexposed and be like, okay, I don't want to chase up here. I know that's a bad idea. So I'm going to try and short. And that's even a worse idea. So you just got to let the bulls do their thing. They're in control right now. There will be, like you said, liquidation flushes along the way. I call it a sucker punch when everybody's looking one direction, everybody's long leverage. And you get these fast, hard drops that get bought up in V-shaped manner. But it's it's four hour EMA 12 right now until it's lost. So what else are you looking at in the context of this?

It's hard not to take a peek at Bitcoin dominance. I know we always do. But holy man, 61.14 percent. Also now kind of since that since Saturday, making kind of new highs every single day. So there was this nice little altcoin run after the election, actually, where they were slightly outperforming, which you can see here in this drop in Bitcoin dominance right here. But ever since then, it's been right back to, I think that was just basically people getting really excited about what was to come and then realizing it was still Bitcoin time.

Yeah, it was the weekend, honestly. You had the NASDAQ and Bitcoin close Friday afternoon at all time highs. And then the weekend was, all right, it's time for trading again. And all the altcoins ran hard. But again, this dominance, same thing. I just like to identify something. Weekly EMA 12 on the dominance chart has been holding for months and months. Nothing changes until that is lost. And so I won't call something an alt season as long as this is still holding as support. We have to see something drastically change on this chart to tell us the market environment is shifting. And it's clearly not shifting at this point.

Right. So then now that you're taking a look at all of this, I mean, that does look like it'll top eventually, but this is basically like trying to do the blue sky breakout thing with Bitcoin, right? I mean, I know we've seen dominance higher than this before, but from the perspective of this cycle, we know it is a little bit different every time because there's more meme, just the altcoin sort of market changes. There's zombies that are just completely dead. I mean, this would basically be like just keeping trying to time the dead bottom of alts that could continue down. I mean, take the ETH BTC chart. I mean, it's literally like a Greek tragedy.

Yeah. I mean, the last time I was on here last week- Look at that thing. It's like a Christmas tree. The theme was, tell me that this one is different than this one or this one or this one. And the answer is it's not different. If we do not confirm the trend changes and establish what we know is an uptrend, nothing changes. And it's just another quick, it's like a little short squeeze, like a little quick pop, but no follow through. And we give it all back. And like you said, literally the definition of a bull trap. You're not going to nail the bottom and you shouldn't expect to. And again, I try and convey that to people.

I've been trading for 14 years. I consider myself a professional. If I don't have the expectations or the confidence in my ability to nail tops and bottoms, you certainly shouldn't either. And so stop trying to do that. And again, that's where partial positions comes in handy where I'm not going to sell at the top of this cycle. I'm going to be scaling out into small pieces. And it's the same as DCA. We DCA because we know we're not going to nail the bottom. We DCA out because we're not going to nail the top. seeing, I am seeing signs that retail is here. You know, Mike, Mike mentioned, he's starting to get some texts and things like that. I'm getting a lot of texts. You know, I got a call from my neighbor. I've never invested in markets. How do I go about it? Yesterday, my friend's dad called

me, you know, we're compiling in, in our chat room here. These are, these are real texts from our friends here. You know, I'm, I'm about to drain my 401k. Oh my God, sell everything. That is the toppiest text I've ever seen. These are from the last few days. This is my friend's stepdad who wanted to buy Dogecoin at 71 cents. He wanted to do the Dogecoin thing for me. He wanted to buy at 71 cents last cycle. How do I do Dogecoin, guys?

How do I do it? And here's a guy that wants to max out his credit card. You told me to buy in the bear market, but I want to max out credit cards and buy now. So again, I'm not calling a top, but I'm just saying that retail is paying attention. And there's many different metrics that we can look at, but the last two weeks have gotten retail's attention. And I believe that the Bitcoin cycle will be significantly marked the top by a blow off top in the legacy markets. And Mike, again, Mike just talking right now, kind of alluded to the same type of thing. He was looking maybe later 2025, but talked about how the NASDAQ can pull back 30% and bring Bitcoin 30% with it.

But I just want to share, eight months ago, I sent this message to my dad and I never tell my dad to do anything in terms of advice. But eight months ago in March, I said, how are you positioned right now? I asked- I like that you start messaging your dad with yo. I asked because there's a potential we're about to continue this melt up for another 15% plus. I'm talking about the S&P 500. If that happens, I'll be very adamantly advising you to exit your stock exposure into the euphoria strength. Everyone will be max bullish and leveraged to the tits. I found this email by searching for tits. And as you know, I've never suggested what you should do. I will be suggesting you sell your 70, whatever years old. I was a little dramatic saying if the melt-up continues as I expect,

massive drop 2008 style, I'm being dramatic there to get his attention. But essentially, we got the 15% higher over the last eight months and everything is aligning for what I feel is going to be a blow off top in the S&P 500. And it doesn't mean we can't run for months further. It doesn't mean we can't go another 10, 15%. We've got seasonality on our side in terms of the end of the year run. But again, this is looking the monthly chart exactly like post-COVID. And then we entered the bear market. And so I expect that we're going to have the euphoria. Everybody's going to be max leverage long. and then you will see a blow off top. And like Mike said, I'm looking 30% plus pullback. And that, in my opinion, if that happens in the

broader market, it's definitely going to seep over into crypto and have crypto top as well. So that's what I'm going to be looking for. And I will be selling, I sold a third of a Microsoft position I've had for two years, and it's up 88% in two years. I'm definitely going to start taking a little bit off into this euphoria, but, uh, again, not trying to nail the top because that is a fool's game. You just said so many things and all I heard was tits. I love that. I love that you started the email to your dad with yo, and that the thing you could remember in your mind to find the email is that you would send tits to your dad because it's very uh it's very in line with my conversations with my own father i don't say tits and emails often so i know i knew it would come up it's absolutely amazing i

mean listen there's some there are some wild things that are happening in this market by the way i mean pepe's market cap top 10 billion of a 77 surge that was a coinbase and robin hood listing and kind of perfect timing because Robinhood had obviously backed off on crypto. And this was basically in the same news story as the relistings from before, basically saying that Robinhood is like, all systems go, right? We have no fear anymore. We're going to list everything, but still pretty wild to see those kind of moves. Still all coins. I mean, is there anything else now that you were looking at your charts that you're particularly looking at now, or you're just kind of enjoying this melt up

and going to be start looking for exits instead of entries down the road? Yeah, definitely. Again, we want to zoom out and recognize the environment. Okay. Euphoria, profit-taking mindset. Again, you don't want to do it too fast. You don't want to sell your, like you mentioned your friend, you don't want to sell your full position and then be out. You want to be scaling out and doing it slowly. But again, just more signs of the euphoria, QUBT, supercomputing penny stock up almost 200% in two days. It's just euphoria across markets. And again, we know how this ends, but predicting exactly when it ends is going to be extremely hard, But I will be, I mean, Buffett's been selling hand over fist all year and raising a significant amount of cash. And so I will be selling into Euphoria to raise cash for the next

cycle of fear to do it all over again. He's been doing that for years now, but it seemingly has gotten more aggressive and definitely with the bigger names that he was holding. That's what's notable. It's that exiting Apple in such massive size and others. What was it? One of them was another was a bank, Citibank or something. I don't remember what it was. Bank of America. Yeah. I mean, he loaded the fear 2008 and this is him selling the euphoria from that trade, which is an amazing trade, but he needs that exit liquidity with these massive position sizes to be able to sell into strength. Yeah, absolutely. So you're not watching any specific names right here.

Marijuana has obviously gotten smashed because nobody likes Republicans for weed. It did get smashed. We got a headline yesterday, Matt Gaetz, if he's AG, that surprised everybody. And he's very pro cannabis and talked about de-scheduling. Hot smoking child molester. Let's get him in there to lead the lawyers of the nation. I can't make money on the child molesting part, but I can make money on the pot part. So that's where my trader mind goes. I don't really remember the allegations, but I definitely saw the name. I mean, it was something with like child trafficking or, you know, he slept with a 17 year old girl. I don't want to spread a flood, but I definitely saw the name. I mean, it was something with like child trafficking or, you know, he slept with a 17 year old girl.

I don't want to spread FUD, but I definitely saw that name. I was like, oh, I know that name. That's not what I expected for leading the entire legal system of the United States of America. Yeah, he's a wild one. Wow. But yeah, so he at least likes weed. He likes weed. So that would be an attorney general that, see, this is kind of like,

you know, I think for especially like people who are Democrats, but also crypto holders that, uh, even if you thought the world was ending, at least you had this silver lining of maybe like, it'll pump my bags, you know,

like if you hate this guy and he's a criminal, I don't even know, but you can be like, well, at least like maybe I'll be able to smoke weed legally. And if he's the head of like, he's the attorney general, then, uh, pretty much pretty much you know we know what direction the uh weed is gonna go it's just man it's pretty it's i we're definitely in the simulation right i think mark zuckerberg dropped uh a song yesterday with t-pain yeah it'sPain, yeah. Terrence McKenna from the psychedelic world,

for those familiar with him, he has a clip where it's just things are going to get weirder and weirder. And, you know, that's where we're at. Yeah, I mean, I would say the Doge agency itself being led by Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy is a pretty good simulation troll. Yep, it's getting weird. Yeah, it's going to be a fun couple of years here, I guess. Interesting, I should say.

Fun for traders because, man, there's going to be a lot of volatility, a lot of crazy news headlines. It's going to be wild, man. Well, it's good. I think that everybody, yourself, I'm assuming, you've largely been positioned into this bull run, right? And if you're starting to get that super FOMO fear that you missed it right now, maybe you did. Maybe you did. And you're going to get another opportunity sooner than later.

Yeah, I mean, the point of cycle bull cycles is you get the rotation, you get the things that haven't run yet. And, you know, we haven't seen that yet still the Bitcoin show. And so once we see that happen with altcoins, again, it's like a step, it's like a checklist. And so that's the next thing that needs to happen is altcoins need to outperform. And then that gets us a little bit closer to potentially looking towards the top.

And that's something that the vast majority of the crypto market is looking towards right now as the next shift. Amazing. Well, we're going to keep showing up every week and keep trying to parse what's happening. For now, I'm really enjoying the run and I'm sure you are too. Better to be thinking, should I sell now than thinking, why am I so poor? Although I have made the argument, long made the argument that just because of examples like my

friend, that bull markets are much more stressful and anxiety provoking than bear markets. So in a bear market, you've already accepted the bad decisions you made. Like I didn't sell, I've got it. Like I can't sell here. And you're just basically riding it. Now you have to actively make decisions and accept that those decisions could be wrong. And it's a lot harder. That would be such an interesting study is to hook people up and measure all the things. I would be so fascinated with the results of that. People sleep well in bear markets. They don't in bull markets from what I've seen. Because you always wait, especially in crypto, you're always waiting for the next shoe to drop. All right, guys, that's all we got for you. And thank you so much for always showing up,

keeping a level head for our audience. I know they love it. It's easy to just come on here and scream about $1 million Bitcoin by next week. And I don't think that that's the reality. Guys, follow Chart Guys Dan on X. Also, check out his YouTube channel, all of his other content. And of course, Mike Alfred, who was here earlier. Guys, that is all we got for you today. See you tomorrow for the Friday 5 at 9 a.m. Eastern Standard Time.

Thanks, Dan. See you next week. See you tomorrow for the Friday five at 9am Eastern time. Thanks, Dan. See you next week. See ya. Bye guys.