The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Breaks $66K | Near ATH! ALT Season? | Crypto Town Hall

Starting point is 00:00:00 Ran, I just glitched out. I was actually watching Ran's channel. We're at like 64k and I was watching his show. I was watching Scott's show. And then Ran's show was at 64k and then we hit, we just hit 66k. It's like I feel like everything that was said in Ran's show is already old news is how fast things are moving. Let me bring up Ran. Christopher, how are you? Hey, I'm doing great. Yeah, yeah, I can hear you. Is it fair to say that between now and all-time highs, pretty much no resistance, and by the time we reach all-time highs, it gets into price discovery, and then charting the price becomes a lot less effective? I wouldn't say it's a lot less effective. There are techniques that we can use you know some of the stuff that i do um but yeah you know when you hit that all-time

Starting point is 00:00:50 high just start getting it into that uh price discovery um it's a lot more about okay where are we potentially headed and watching then do we head continually through it you know uh because that that formal can really kick in if we think about it you know genesis uh i think has sold just about everything if not everything of that 1.3 billion they were supposed to sell last week those were those heavy flows coming in um that pretty much uh blackrock just kind of sucked up but i mean without that head went in there now and uh getting to all-time highs um if that voracious appetite of the ETFs continues um we could see this thing really kind of bounce up I've talked about you know mid 70s and then potentially a rally into a hundred thousand so um it seems kind of crazy but

Starting point is 00:01:37 why is the all-time has broken all bets are, I mean, you know, you're going to price discovery. We've seen tokens. We've seen what happens to tokens in price discovery. There's no limits. There's no comparison. There's no next resistance, next support. It's straight up. So I think that happens.

Starting point is 00:01:58 But I do think that the 69,000 is going to be quite a big resistance. I don't think we're going to slice through 69,000 like a knife through butter. I think that's, you know, an all-time high is always a psychological resistance. And I also think that there's a lot of froth in the market. I mean, you saw the meme coins this weekend. You know, like when people are, you know, euphoric enough and rich enough and dumb enough to believe that meme coins are an investment and that meme coins are going to be here in 10 years

Starting point is 00:02:26 and that a dog with a hat is going to be here in 10 years, that's when there's too much froth in the market. And the funding rates are at 100% plus. Today, the funding rates are at 100% plus per year. I mean, you can't sustain this for very long. It's just not a healthy market. Hey, Ran, do you think... I have an argument to that.

Starting point is 00:02:49 ...prof in the crypto market, does it matter for Bitcoin, though, at the moment in this kind of dynamic? I think that when funding rates are high, I think the dynamics do matter. And I know that the argument to that is, well, you know, it's the ETF that if the ETF is buying. Remember

Starting point is 00:03:08 these ETF investors haven't seen a Bitcoin dip yet. Let's wait until they see a real Bitcoin dip. And when I say see, of course they've seen it on TV, but it's different when you own money in it and all of a sudden you go from 66 and you take a 20% dip and then all of a

Starting point is 00:03:24 sudden you're at 52 or 53 or whatever the number is. It gets a little scary. Matt put out a tweet, and I think you've included it as well in your show. It's just a very simple calculation. Demand is outpacing supply. Last week, you've got 30,000 Bitcoin that was purchased by ETFs. We've only got 6,000 that was produced by miners. Obviously, a lot of Bitcoin holders are huddling their Bitcoin as well.

Starting point is 00:03:50 So it's just purely a supply-demand mismatch that we're seeing, which shows that fundamentals are strong. Not really. I don't think you can say that. I don't think you can say that. I think that it's easy to look at the number of bitcoin mind and say oh well you know there's new demand and and there's not new supply but there's a lot of people who are happy to let their bitcoin go at 66 000 right and that is supply like it or not that's supply right

Starting point is 00:04:19 so i mean yeah yeah granted you can say new supply is is it is not enough new supply to fill the the raging demand of the new etfs but there's a lot of old holders with 65 and 66 000 actually okay to let go some of their bitcoin right matthew yeah i think god god alice oh obviously i think there's a lot of old holders who if we hit hit an all-time high, like there's some people who are going to sell. I think there's a lot of people who, if we hit a new all-time high, which seems quite possible in the next today, are going to hold longer. They're going to double down on it. But I think, Ran, I think your underlying point is correct that you can't look at just the newly created supply. There are always buyers.

Starting point is 00:05:03 There are always sellers at any price. The question is how many. But I mean, I don't think you I do think that Bitcoin has largely in the last year, six months, especially divorced itself from a lot of the meme coins and things out there. I mean, you just like if you just take the simplest example, Bitcoin's five percent off its all time high, you know, Shiba or whatever, Doge, whatever the top one is, I always think, is like 70% off its all-time high from like, you know, the very mean coin Ethereum driven run in 2021, 2022. So I do think there is some divergence there. And, you know, there's still, you know, there will be ups, there will be downs. But I think there's still a lot of headroom left in Bitcoin. And it has really started to move itself away from the rest of the crypto market. I want to go to that same question, Matthew Siegel.

Starting point is 00:05:54 How much of the current pump is driven by fundamentals? I'd be curious to see what you define as fundamentals versus just hype and FOMO. Yeah. Hey, everybody. We had a piece out last week. We've got this monthly periodical Bitcoin chain check. And we highlighted in that piece a divergence between the on-chain activity and the price. Obviously, February was driven by speculation and folks tapping that Bitcoin ETF API from TradFi to crypto. And that's a new, cheap and convenient connection. And I think that drove the price up and fundamentals have not followed. That said,

Starting point is 00:06:41 we also highlighted in that piece, as of a week ago, 90% of the Bitcoin network was in profits, 90% of holders. When we hit 90%, we tend to hit 100%. And so that's where we are right now, 99.6%. I think the technicals are too hard to get in front of. And the last time we broke out to an all-time high, November 2020, there was a 200% subsequent increase in three months. So in the strategies that I run, these are liquid token strategies, both of which outperformed Bitcoin last year after fees. We have not de-risked. We've taken a little bit off of BTC specifically into alts, put it into alts that have lagged, but have not de-risked. There are other multi-asset strategies here that did sell some BTC last week. These are, I'd say, more TradFi-oriented portfolios. And those are the sellers that we don't know really how they're going to react when price goes up. I think there will be more rebalancing than we are used to.

Starting point is 00:07:49 But I just go back to that history. When we break out to a new cycle all-time high, the next three months tend to be very positive. That 100% of network and profits tends to linger for a while. I wouldn't de-risk unless we break down. I want to go to, I think we've got Hunter here from Bitwise. Hunter, if we can get an update on the ETF numbers, because they've just been, I think we had an outflow on Friday, but in general, BlackRock is already at 10 billion NAV right now,

Starting point is 00:08:25 and we've got inflows already at over $7 billion. So Mario, just one thing about the black rock at $10 billion. I'm glad you said it and it's true, but remember that the price of Bitcoin has gone up so much that GBTC, for example, I think on the 11th of January, they had $28.4 billion worth of Bitcoin and they had 200,.4 billion worth of Bitcoin. And they had 200,000 Bitcoin flow out, which was about one third of the fund. And today they've got $27 billion under management because of the increase in the price of Bitcoin. So, I mean, it's nice to calculate the ETFs in terms of total value locked or asset under management. But probably a better way to do it is how many Bitcoin are they actually holding?

Starting point is 00:09:08 Yeah, and also looking at the net inflows for the month as well. I think we're at over $7 billion so far. And our prediction was if we hit $5 billion in the first three months, that would be considered a massive success. And we're already over $7 billion. And we're about halfway there, Hunter. Yeah, it's incredible. You're exactly right, Mario. Since the launch on January 11th, it's $7 billion of inflows net of the $9 billion of GBTC that has been sold. So I think that people in the ETF industry and capital markets are pretty blown away. The other thing that's been remarkable that I think many people

Starting point is 00:09:52 have, you know, this group is a very well informed group, but last week was as big as the opening week. I think that we're now seven or eight weeks since the launch of these ETFs. And normally, you would expect a lot of attention around the launch and a moment where there's a lot of activity. And then for that to sort of trail off a bit as things transition into sort of the long game of people doing homework and working on making allocations. But it's been extraordinary to see the staying power. Last week, I think we took in $120 million or thereabouts into the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF. And so we're at $1.5 billion or thereabouts.

Starting point is 00:10:41 I think BlackRock is at $10,000, Ran. I think you mentioned that, which is just extraordinary numbers. And I think the other thing that is so remarkable is that there are so many investors who have an intention to allocate, but have not yet had the time to get it done. And there are a lot of platforms that have an attention to open access, but have not yet completed the work to open access. So we're talking about, you know, $7 billion plus of inflows in weeks, not quarters. And that's all before a lot of market participants have gotten around to doing what they want to do in the space. So it's been pretty extraordinary.

Starting point is 00:11:30 The other thing I'd say – Yeah, please. Now, I was going to ask you, how are the financial advisors responding to Bitcoin's price skyrocketing? Do you stand to sense any FOMO among those advisors similar to retail experiences? Just want to give the audience just an idea of how crazy those numbers are. The $10 billion that BlackRock is holding now in seven weeks, it took all three years, I think over three years to reach $10 billion in assets. Obviously, that's factoring in the price of Bitcoin skyrocketing.

Starting point is 00:12:02 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, the speed has been extraordinary. I think the BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, and ARK ETFs were amongst the 25 fastest to a billion in the 30-year history of ETFs. I think that BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF is now the fastest to 10 billion in history. Somebody could correct me if I have that superlative off. But that has been quite remarkable. In terms of when we think about the capital markets, there are a few different

Starting point is 00:12:31 segments of types of investors. There are individuals with retirement accounts as a component of that that manage, you know, have north of $10 trillion. There are independent advisors that have around $10 trillion in assets under management, often called RAs. There are advisors who are on a platform, a bank or broker dealer who manage, again, there are different estimates on this, but something like $20 trillion. And there are mutual funds, there are hedge funds and prop shops, and potentially corporates. So we're seeing investor interest across every single one of these buckets. I've said before that it almost feels like Bitcoin's IPO moment, in that, you know, even though everyone on this call has had access and has probably been invested in

Starting point is 00:13:27 the space for a long time, I think for the broad capital markets, it really feels like Bitcoin has arrived and is available and is a first-class citizen for the first time as of 2024. And indeed, we're seeing every type of investor engaging with it. But as I said before, just the remarkable state of play is that these products have already garnered a huge amount of adoption. And by and large, the $20 trillion with banks and broker-dealer wealth management hasn't yet gotten full access. And some of the mutual fund complexes that have been doing homework have not yet completed that homework to be able to put it in portfolios. So we're seeing the most activity

Starting point is 00:14:11 with independent wealth managers. Just last week, there were two firms that added over 1% allocation on Thursday or Friday. We saw it go into a new model last week, the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF. I think individual investors and then very nimble investors like hedge funds and prop shops. So there are additional chapters of the story here that are yet to play out. And the adoption has been very impressive. You guys were discussing this off the top. Matt Wren, I think you mentioned Matt, has been very impressive. You guys were discussing this off the top. Matt Wren, I think you mentioned Matt has been tweeting about this, Matt Hogan, the CIO at Bitwise. The amount of new Bitcoin mined last week was something like 6,000 and the amount bought by

Starting point is 00:14:58 Bitcoin ETFs was 30,000. And of course, Mario, I think you referenced, there are certain investors that are willing to sell their Bitcoin at this juncture. But a lot of this new demand is going to have to convince existing Bitcoin holders to part ways with their Bitcoin. And that creates a supply-demand dynamic that I think is unbelievably constructive to Bitcoin's price. So it's a very interesting moment and a very exciting time for people who've been in the space. Yeah, go ahead. I'm not sure if anyone remembers the data

Starting point is 00:15:31 we've talked about in previous space, but the whale holders, Bitcoin whale holders, there haven't been a lot of Bitcoin still sitting dormant. There hasn't been an inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges. So it just seems that those traders ran, that selling pressure isn't there. The hodlers are still hodlers. Now, obviously, that will change, but the price at which that will change doesn't seem to be, I'm not sure.

Starting point is 00:15:52 Maybe it will be the all-time high. Maybe we'll face enough resistance. We do have Peter here. Maybe Peter can give us an overview on what you expect, what type of resistance do you expect on the all-time highs? You know, little or none. I mean, I think Hunter absolutely had it you know these family offices their phones are ringing off the hook today uh by people with 10 20 million dollar portfolios who are going why am i not in here you know they weren't going to buy spot but now they have the etfs so the underlying demand is really what we're seeing. And the fact is, is time and time again, the halving marks the halfway spot to the bull market that started in November of 2022.

Starting point is 00:16:36 So we're halfway there. We're going to rally until September of 2025. That will be the top somewhere in the area of 120 to 140. Until something changes in the chart structure until something shows me that kind of the model that I've laid out for myself is wrong. You know, that's my story. And I'll stick with it. So I have 6570. Of course, it's psychological resistance, especially if we back off of there and we stall for a little bit, people start thinking, well, we're going to have a break. But I would not expect any breaks here for really the next year

Starting point is 00:17:16 to be much more than 20% at best. And so, you know, any time the market in the next year and a half is down 20%, it's whispering to you, buy me, buy me. Got it, Simon. And then in a bit as well, we've got a few speakers that can touch on that rotation into altcoins. We're starting to see meme coins pump. I think this weekend was pretty insane in terms of Pepe and all the other meme coins that I don't follow reaching pretty crazy numbers. But Simon, just want to get you to

Starting point is 00:17:45 respond to what peter has said so far and your your thoughts on the on the craziness we're seeing yeah um it feels as a as a as a bitcoiner it feels like it's our moment to um sit here and retire and let tradfi take over and do all the selling for us i feel like i don't need to sell um bitcoin anymore and i've got to go full full time into selling self-custody. And that's what the moment feels like right now. So congratulations to everybody that has joined. What do you mean? What do you mean selling?

Starting point is 00:18:15 Just to be clear for the audience, you mean selling your Bitcoin? You mean promoting Bitcoin, selling the concept of Bitcoin to the store of value? Yeah. Thank you for clarifying that. Yeah. No, I would never buy dollars with my Bitcoin. That's the craziest thing to do. You know, but in terms of by selling,

Starting point is 00:18:32 I mean just promoting and advocating for the industry. It feels like after 13 years of doing it, you get to retire because all the big people that are going to do really amazing jobs of putting together all this analysis. My question for the panel, though, and maybe you want to go in a different direction, is how will TradFi react? So typically here, historically, you've had a 30% correction,

Starting point is 00:18:57 and then that triggers off a bunch of scared people, and then it goes off to all-time highs and you have a lot of manipulation in between and people start sending all the large amounts of Bitcoin to Coinbase and trying to manipulate the whole market into selling. That's how historically it's been done. How do you think this new volume is going to react to a 30% correction or something and then push up to new all-time highs again. Matthew? Yeah, I want to make one kind of trad pie analogy that I think is resonating today. Bitcoin market cap flipped meta. And I think it's during the bear market, meta stock fell steeper peak to trough than Bitcoin.

Starting point is 00:19:46 So Meta is a 2%, 2.5% weighting in the S&P 500. You now have regulated investment advisors, portfolio managers who are looking at that dynamic and saying like, hey, my clients owned Meta in a 2.5% position by owning the S&P 500 during the bear market. It drew down 80% versus Bitcoin drawing down 77%. And now Bitcoin has flipped meta. And people are reading the Chris Dixon book, Read, Write, Own. The narrative of decentralized currencies taking margin out of FANG is beginning to happen. And allocators, I think, are going to react by taking a 2% position in Bitcoin.

Starting point is 00:20:26 And the size is helpful for that allocation because you're buying into a mega cap that's now bigger than Facebook stock. So I think it's a very positive development. Matthew, I can link it to the question I wanted to ask you earlier. What do you expect to happen next? Do you think it will face a lot of resistance at that all-time high, the 69K level? And once we break it, what happens once we hit price recovery?

Starting point is 00:20:49 I'm going to go with Peter's call here that the charts will tell us 20% corrections during bull markets are buying opportunities. The year of the halving, the year after the halving, those are the times you've got to be buying the dip i if i could just add on that for a second mario um i love love the analogy uh matthew also that you shared there with uh with meta i think that's incredibly compelling the a comment i wanted to make um uh relative to you to how will investors react to different price levels

Starting point is 00:21:25 is that I think that there's some elements of the Bitcoin trading and market that have to be unlearned now that there are Bitcoin ETFs. And the reason I say that is that some of the new allocators and market participants that are now coming into being Bitcoin owners have different points of view on topics like the all-time high and price. So there are some that have a specific price target in mind. Many advisors will do rebalancing, which means if they're targeting a

The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Breaks $66K | Near ATH! ALT Season? | Crypto Town Hall

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