The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin BREAKS $90K As Gold & Silver SMASH ATHs! Santa Rally Inbound?

Episode Date: December 22, 2025

Bitcoin enters the week on edge as global markets flash warning signs: Hong Kong unveils new crypto infrastructure rules that could unlock $82B in institutional insurance investment, while MicroStrategy’s trading volume suddenly surpasses Wells Fargo—cementing its status as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. Cardano’s Charles Hoskinson warns that crypto is becoming a “puppet of Washington” just as U.S. banks gain regulatory approval to act as crypto intermediaries. Meanwhile, James Lavish highlights a troubling macro signal: the Fed is cutting rates, yet long-term Treasury yields are still rising—hinting at deeper structural stress as debt spirals. With regulatory crackdowns, geopolitical tension, and massive liquidity distortions all converging, the crypto market faces one of its most pivotal moments of the year.

Bitcoin is once again testing $90,000 trading sideways as gold and silver continue to break through to new all-time highs. Why is Bitcoin not trading like its physical cousins? That's a topic of conversation that we have seemingly every week, but we're going to continue having it today. Also, can we get a Santa Claus rally or are we going to have doom and despair on the menu for Christmas Eve dinner? we're going to unpack that and everything else happening in the macro with james dave and of course mr mike mcglone here on macro monday let's go good morning and happy and happy macro monday this is likely well maybe you know maybe the boys will do macro monday without me next week i can't speak but i won't be here so this will be

my last macro monday of 2025 a good time to kind of recap the year and talk about what's likely to come we've got james and dave mike is on tv right now he'll be joining us in five or six minutes but that means that we're not going to hear about anna wong and and ira jersey today guys oh maybe he'll uh maybe ira jersey's thoughts when he arrives So there's a lot of places to start here. It's hard to start anywhere except for this insane rally that's going on right now with gold and silver. I know Michael want to talk about this. We know that he thinks that this is the time to sell.

But look at this. I mean, we got gold up basically 132% on the year. We got silver up, you know, what is that say, 64% and Bitcoin down 6.5%. Bitcoin clearly not trading like digital gold or digital silver at the moment. Is that fair to say? It's fair to say. you know i i read something too here uh scott that bitcoin's up 17 out of the last 20 years on average 5% in the first quarter so um so this this is just kind of it's not surprising it's a little bit of maybe front

running for the for that expected move um but you know uh it's this is it just doesn't seem to be letting up it's one of those obviously it's feeding on itself you know I mean, I've got friends talking about gold. I've never, you know, just regular normies talking about gold. I've never, ever heard them talking about gold as an investment in, you know, in decades and decades of investing. And here we are. The funny part is, look, you know, I'm the, I'm the most aggressive gold and silver bowl. We know that I've been calling for 5,075 for many, many, many, many months on this show, as Mike said, that it's time to sell.

And so I'll keep saying that. But the reason that I think so for a bunch of reasons is the famous M2 chart where Bitcoin has diverged from a gold and silver have not. And that hotball of money is alive and well. And the fact is people forget, I mean, people ignore that momentum has been the single most dominant trading feature in our markets for years now. and the momentum becomes self-sustaining. Exactly. You can look at the silver chart and paint yourself into a picture and say, well, listen, silver to gold historically and in the earth's crust is a 15 to one relationship.

Historically, it's bounced between, you know, 120 and 50, 120 when, you know, gold is, because gold is a lot easier to buy for monetary purposes than silver. But when you get a retail-led market, just to let the word sink in for a second, You're not having to deliver tons of silver. You're talking pounds of silver, right? And retail can afford to play in silver. And with the Contract for Differences Market, which I've highlighted multiple times on this show,

you've now made it really easy for retail to play in silver. So what happens when retail is able to play? Well, the momentum tends to get far more exaggerated than you would expect. And every time you think it's dying, well, it's not really dying. I mean, we know. what plateauing is like in Bitcoin. Scott, you know, we've talked to it. We know, I got the expression.

That's exactly the one I was, exactly what I was expecting. We know, because most of our time is spent plateauing. Right. So, you know, Bitcoin, it's a very famous stat, you know, that 10 days out of the years where all the move is, but it's goes, but it's much deeper and more profound than that. Bitcoin gets God candles or massive rallies followed by, you know, it's like, it's the old quote about poker tournament. You know, Tom McAvoy, I think it was McAvoy, former poker champion once said poker tournaments are 98% boredom and 2% being on the most frightening roller coaster.

Well, Bitcoin is similar in that regard. Silver, you know, had the one rally in 1980 that was the Hunt Brothers cornering it. We had a couple of other rallies along the way that never quite got there. And this time it broke through. And that captured the imagination of retail. It still is. And you could easily justify the narrative of silver being cheap. until it gets to 75 with gold at 4,000.

So gold at 5,000, well, we're going to do the math. You're going to get silver at 100. And that narrative is sustaining it. And we haven't seen more than a week or two of plateauing on silver and gold since this rally started. Nothing close to the six months or eight months of sideways action we've seen in Bitcoin. So until you start to see people getting less excited

or their price targets already achieved, you expect this to continue. Now, eventually, it bleeds into Bitcoin or will as the idiosyncratic things that have going on in the Bitcoin market change. I was on spaces yesterday. I was talking with Dr. Donish. I mean, we don't know Dr. Donish and a few other people, and we were chatting about this. And the sentiment in the Bitcoin market, and certainly in the all coin market, is doom, gloom despair. Yeah. All of the crypto-native, the vast majority, of the crypto native folks with the exception of the dyed in the wool Bitcoin long-term hoddlers like me and you James are like oh god let's wait for another three years and then we'll

get our day in the sun so sell everything pack your bags and touch grass whatever you know and when that happens you know it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy but there's one problem you know in the funny thing happened on the way to that well what happened was above a hundred we had a lot of of distribution. And it was a lot of distribution over the past year, probably half a million coins worth. And so I think it's been a million coins or actually more. It was a million coins back to November. It's a significant amount. And the new buyers are, okay, we're buying this for, you know, what our, our bet is it goes substantively higher, whether you listen to Larry Fink's version of it or mine. It doesn't matter. I mean, it's, it's, whether it's five times or

10 times, you know, underpriced, it's a big number. So these variations, don't matter. And so we saw that over 100. Below 100, what we saw is the biggest liquidity flush in the history of crypto, washing out firms, washing out people, causing this doom and gloom. And yet with all of that, Bitcoin is trading, you know, like bog in the middle of the range that it established on from October, carved out after October 10th. And so, you know, I look at this as a really good setup for Bitcoin. All coins are a totally different conversation, completely different for a lot of reasons. And I think that bears, that's something maybe we talk about in January.

You remember at the beginning of the year, I said this would be the year value asserts itself. Well, I was half right. Lack of value is starting to assert itself, but value hasn't started to assert itself yet. So that's the way I look at it. And, you know, like macro backdrops, probably the easiest trade in Bitcoin ever. Sorry, Mike, but was the people, the doom and gloomers who said a week ago that Bitcoin was going to crash because Japan is raising rates. And why did they say it was easiest trade ever?

It was almost as easy as saying as selling the top when all the good news was there when it was all very euphoric because people were so doomy and so gloomy and it was so well-known that's not surprised. I mean, there are a lot of people out there who did stupid things like sell the Niki. The Niki has been doing nothing but go straight up since the Bank of Japan raised rates. Why? Why? Because it was well telegraphed and well-known. People always forget this the thing, as I said on a tweet this weekend or a post this weekend, whatever. The sell the rumor, buy the news, buy the rumor, sell the news, is undefeated. And it will always be because markets react to surprises. It doesn't react to what is well understood. And so with that, we haven't talked about what's going on in the macro side. But you know, on wheels aren't moving. Lots of stuff aren't moving. But you're here, Mike. So go. for it. Yeah, Mike, we started with the gold and silver rally, obviously. I just wanted to highlight that gold is actually the most overbought on the monthly chart that it has ever been. So yes, it is breaking out, but we are seeing historic action here.

Well, just the fact that Bloomberg primetime TV just asked me to comment on the golden silver breaking out to new rallies, that's a cell signal. An indication of that was in December 2017, two Sundays in a row when the futures were launching. They asked, me to comment, and Bitcoin got to near $17,000. Like, that's a sell signal. And right now, I just repeated the same mantra I did in Bitcoin a year ago. You're supposed to be selling when they're yelling. Now, this is more of a tactical trade now, I think, in precious metals. And you pointed out when the last time you, when you run at this kind of velocity, I honestly, I switch over to my risk management hat. All the fundamentals that people are going to mention that we talked about five years ago when I've been bullish gold forever and wrong have kicked in. Now you have to be a money manager and say, do I want to be overweight long?

these levels. And history proves, yeah, you can easily get gold of $5,000. Momentum's going there. You can get silver maybe to $80, momentum's going there. But then you can put in a peak for decades. And that's usually what happens. You can drop 50, 60, 70 percent easily. So to me, these are levels you're supposed to say thank you very much, you know, give some back to the market. Never tempt the market gods, which was what Michael Saylor did last year. Key signals to sell Bitcoin. And be careful. Now, things like crude oil getting cheap, that's kind of disparity. It's never happened at this velocity. That's why I'm emboldened to say next year will be a down year for the stock market. And maybe S&P 500 goes to 5,000, maybe not. Hopefully not. That consensus has got a rally 11%.

So if it drops 11%, we all know that would just put that Bitcoin gold ratio is a good one, the premier leading indicators on a planet, which I think it is. So I'm looking at next year is this whole, my main base case a year ago was that was a peak for cryptos in Bitcoin. That's playing out. Why should I end that? And my main base case for next year is we're going to have deflation from inflation, as indicated by gold taking off and crude oil going down and Bitcoin rolling over. So to me, this is just getting started. Sure, we're supposed to bounce.

You've got to have those bouncing rallies. You get most of those in bare markets, and you've got to have false hope. But the fundamentals to me are what I really appreciate what you said, sorry, Dave, to Mike. Dave, we're brothers from different mothers. We help each other get better. I do appreciate that. But I fully think this is just part of the big picture peak in all risk assets.

Cryptos leading the way. And maybe we'll get lucky. Bitcoin will disengage. But I sent you that chart, I think, last week, Scott, you showed the 48 month correlation, a correlation between the market vector's 100 small cap index versus Bitcoin is the highest ever. That's where things are. We've got to get through this purge. So, Mike, do you go?

Are you going the long, crude, short silver trade here then? Because, I mean, silver, one ounce of silver being more than a barrel of oil is, that's pretty significant. Yeah, I saw that out this weekend. I love it. And it's a trader, you cannot, you can't go with, I mean, being short crude here, as you have to fully expect, if I was shorted, if I got shorted as the next trader, it probably popped to 70. I'd get stopped out. That's where it's supposed to go down. And then it'd go to 40.

I mean, that's just the way it works. So I'm a strategist. Same thing in silver. If I were, you don't short it here. look for maybe you use options you can easily go up another you know like it did last time it's this was okay good example is 1979 it it peaked at 32 dollars this year's low as 28 just give an example what can happen and i'm sorry it didn't peak and then went to 50 and then it went down the two by was in 1993 that can easily happen in all cryptos but that's the trade as a commodity person you look at

those trades and you're looking to maybe find ways to get negative delta silver and potentially positive delta and on things like crude oil it just as a strategy is like the trends are still momentums against you. So, but there is a big difference, though, between oil and silver, and certainly between oil and gold, and that is that oil has gotten massively cheaper to extract over time. That relentless pace of technology has driven the price down relative to other commodities. So you would expect it. Silver and gold, the technology hasn't really improved.

It's really just a question of the fact that the money supply, is more than doubled. Actually, what is the total global monetary supply done since 1980? I think it's probably closer to quadruple than doubled. It's doubled in the last six years. So, you know, it, to me, you know, seeing that ratio and not taking into account the fact that technology for oil has gone parabolic in terms of the ability to extract every single little bit out of even the most sluggiest tar sands. And also just take it from Venezuela, if you. Well, that's true, too. But, you know,

I think that it's really, really relevant to understand, you know, put things in perspective. So I'm sorry for the deviation, but one of the conversations this weekend we had about Bitcoin in particular is, because there's been a lot of news stories about this. And you've been taught covering it extensively, Scott, on your shows, multiple good podcasts that people could go through. You could list them all. But is the fact that Bitcoin is going to become collateral. And people should understand the difference between how much money people made in 1987 or before 1988, when you could margin equities as part of financial transactions based on Basel rules and after is dramatically different.

And we know those rules are going to change. We know that, first of all, the Basel people, a Basel executive director has said it, but also JP Morgan, other people doing it. And so we had this really fun conversation where someone said, well, Bitcoin won't be as useful for borrowing against and using it as stocks. And I made the point that, well, you know, the world's richest people are borrowing against their stocks. They're not selling it. And the same thing is going to happen with Bitcoin. And they go, well, you know, whatever that. No, but Bitcoin's more volatile, they said. So I went and ran the numbers. The numbers are pretty straightforward.

Right now, the average 30-day volatility, the current 30-day volatility of Tesla is 43, Nvidia is 38. Bitcoin is 33. So Bitcoin is much less volatile than both. I actually have a chart in my last weekend about about the following volatility. Bitcoin volatility over the past year is half Tesla and 25% below in Nvidia. And Bitcoin is still, even on a five-year basis, less volatile than Tesla and Nvidia. And the same is true against the whole Mag 7. So the people who believe that Bitcoin is this hyper-beta, hyper-volatile thing, are ignoring math. And that math matters because what does that mean? Well, we talked about why did Bitcoin get capped out and end up plunging to discounts we've never seen before relative to its hash rate? The answer is it started with

distribution from people who had to sell. They're not going to have to for very much longer. And that's a very big deal, right? And so people need to understand that the overhead supply that they think that's there if we start moving toward all-time highs, isn't, or certainly not as much as it used to be. Not with J.P. Morgan and everybody else offering, you know, this sort of thing. So it's important understand. It also tells you a lot about beta. This notion that if the stock market drops 20%, Bitcoin will drop, or if the NASDAQ drops 20%, Bitcoin will drop 40, that's just a bunch of happy horse shit. Bitcoin's volatility in NASDAX is more or less the same over even a five-year period. And there's idiosyncratic reasons there. So it's just worth understanding. That doesn't mean

if NASDA doesn't have a massive correction, that won't, Bitcoin won't drop. Of course it will, but it won't be dropped double. And that's kind of important to understand. I just thought that was important to get that math out there when Mike was in the audience. So we understand these are the numbers that has nothing to do with, with anything else with opinion here. So you just point out the main reasons, the best days of Bitcoin are over, things we've been talking about for five years. It's getting arbed into being a store of value. It's volatility at 1.7 times S&P 500, 32 percent, or as you said, about the same as NASDAQ, we'll probably go towards where it was in gold. And I wrote about that five years ago, it's just a question time.

But that's part of the reason you see people moving out in the curve. I mean, that's why we wanted to launch that Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index. If Bitcoin is, you know, the beta in the space, you're not going to get big anymore. It's done. It's done. It's the classic example of the best backtest in history and the biggest ETF launch in history. All the lessons of history said, that trade's done. And I fully expect the whole crypto trade is over.

Okay. The shift this year was to precious metals, and that trades potentially over. The next big trade, I think, is normal deflation. But the key thing you described in Bitcoin by saying volatility and becoming, you know, legitimate collateral and just what Safe and Dean Amund is predicted in his book, the Bitcoin standards. Stuff I don't disagree with, but that means trade's over. It's done. The time they get on, it was when Trump hated it, Trump, you know, and Biden hated it when it was repressed. Now it's been taken off.

We've got all these mean coins, everything's done. It's a classic example of things will write about 10 years ago and say, thank you. So thank you for the bell ringing at the top. Okay. And I want to add the other piece of data because Mike just stepped it right into exactly what I was going to say. If you look at Nvidia, over the last five years, Nvidia's returns are pretty much exactly what Larry Fink and I are predicting Bitcoin will be over the next five years, which is a 10x,

actually a 12x in Nvidia's case. Why? Good luck with that one. Because it was riding a macro trend. In video, there were lots of people who thought Nvidia was overvalued five years ago, a lot it climbed a wall of worry. It did exactly that. The volatility over this five-year period, it rose relentlessly. So it's vol and Bitcoin's voler almost identical. I'm definitely not going to make the argument that Bitcoin can't 10x in the next five years, but it's not going to be because

it's as big of a move as the adoption of AI. I'm sorry. That AI is the biggest tech trend that we will ever see in our entire lifetimes, and Nvidia captured all of it. AI is the third. largest trend so far, arguably. I mean, the biggest trend, the first biggest trend was Cisco capturing the need for broadband routing, and it more than 10xed. In fact, went completely crazy. I mean, it was like 20 or 30x and then eventually settled back down. The second one was the ability for people to all get online and do the internet, and we saw way more than a 10x with regard to Amazon and everything else. Consumer adoption of the internet to date in terms of supply chains and everything else is far bigger than the impact.

If it doesn't that put Bitcoin at 1995 right now, I don't think that's true. Well, no, but I mean, the point is, is trends are trends, and you need to look at it. Bitcoin is its own trend, and it has a lot of synergies with AI that we could talk through. But my point is that when you clearly look at numbers, this notion, I mean, Jeff Park keeps saying, if Bitcoin's volatility doesn't go up, it won't go up. And the answer to that is, well, Bitcoin's volatility, and Invidia kind of proves the point, it doesn't have to. Those two things are not linked. It has to be elevated, sure. But, you know, if it continues to have this, this performance of major runs up in very short periods of time,

followed by months of doing nothing, you know, as a stair step function, a lot of things can happen. I just hate when people say can't, right? You know, it's like, can't, markets exist to make us feel stupid right you know anytime anytime i ever say this can't happen or this will happen with absolute certainty inevitably uh you're going to end up looking silly in my case it's mostly silly based on timing pretty much all of my god i've got the uh the chart of volatility up if you want to share that right i was going to bring up something that is silly go ahead yeah i mean you could see that the bitcoin volatility has been dropping over the last five years versus volatility of of you know like in Nvidia has been rising against it.

And so this is, this is important, you know, kind of indication of where, where we are now. And this is, people are getting bored with Bitcoin because it's just not volatile enough anymore. I mean, that's a crazy part, you know, that's, it's actually, it's, and like Dave said, it's kind of self-fulfilling. Right. So I think, I think there's a lot to unpack underneath that. The point that I'm trying to make here is, well, here, there's another thing to unpack right

here, which is the margin debt is now, you know, 1.21 trillion. I mean, this is the single biggest fuel for, for Mike's thesis. Exactly. This is, is the, I mean, if you do margin debt as a percent of GDP or percent of something that kind of normalized it to money supply, it's not quite so dire, but it definitely has that look. I mean, look at what happened. For the people who are watching you don't know what this is, this is just the, the sheer amount of margin that, that, that, that investors are taking out to buy the S&P. This is the margin on their accounts. And look at the relentless rise since, you know,

since the bottom of the global financial crisis. Right here. No, no, 2010. Oh, here? Oh, the GFC, yeah, it's just been. Yeah, yeah. And it almost makes, it's so big, it makes the GFC down.

Now, of course, you have to divide by the fact that there's double the amount of money since the more than double the amount of money. Right, but it's still the amount, yeah, this may be the single biggest chart that makes me think that there could be a kaboom at some point. In fact, almost certainly. We all know there's going to be a boom at some point. And the hard part is timing.

It's kind of like Mike keeps saying, you know, the minute you short it, you'll get stopped out before it happens. And kind of like, we have endless arguments that are like this about a number of metrics that we're seeing in markets. Can I make one more thing on this? No, let me finish. I've listened to Tom Lee talk about the business cycle with Raoul Paul. It's been beaten down for three years, has to go up this year.

Well, why can't it stay down another year? I'm not saying it won't, but why can't margin continue to rise? Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. So all these things are an indication that something will come, but good luck in timing it. Now, Scott, you need to say that again, because I think new investors who have not lived through these cycles, who have never seen a market crash, need to hear this. because this is this is so important that markets can state irrational far longer than you can stay solvent. It's hard to understand just how powerful momentum can be.

And everything is driven off of momentum these days. I mean, like it's all momentum trading. And it's no surprise that you have polymarket come to the United States. You've got the betting casino in sports is just, it's how many billions of dollars is. it now i read it's it's an insane number it's it's mind boggling everybody is out there gambling and it's all because obviously we all understand it money is broken people are going further further out on the risk curve because they're chasing they're they're chasing every day because they don't feel like they forget about keeping up you know they're they can't keep up they want to do something

they want to buy lottery tickets to try to you know somehow find a pocket of wealth for themselves and And, you know, everybody's going further on the risk curve. There's two parts. It's disillusionment because I'm poor anyway, so who gives a shit? I might as well take a shot, right? And the other side is if you literally are working your ass off and can't keep up, you try to gamble to keep up. You're forced to gamble by the relentless inflation.

You are absolutely forced to gamble with your money. You can't just leave it there. You've got to put it in something that may be able to grow. It's been by design. But the one other point about that chart, that's really, critical. And it's something that Mike has said many times. So let me give credit for this one. I'm not, which isn't just me, but you have to point it out. This chart is showing you how vitally important the wealth effect is to the economy. Because people think that the margin

debt is increasing because they're using it and they're buying more at margin. And there's some truth to that. But there's also a lot of truth that people are taking wealth out of their stock accounts by allowing themselves to borrow against their stock. As the stock go up, were able to pull out a lot of this a lot of this relentless rise because we know the labor market has has been dramatically underperforming for the last five years i mean you're going to make an argument start you know whatever but it has i mean they pull out if you've pulled out the post-covid recovery has has just sucked balls it has not been that good and so the economy but this consumer has been doing well and where's it coming from it's coming from people borrowing

against their stocks which is something that that mr mcgloan has pointed out many, many times. And so understand, what does this mean? If you think that Treasury Secretary Besant and the team of economic advisors that, you know, whether it's Moran at the Federal Reserve or either of the Kevins, if you think they are not well aware of the fact that the economy is running on borrowed wealth from the U.S. consumer against this, and that's why that chart is the way it is, then, you know, you're nuts. I mean, they are totally aware of it. And which is why, as Mike puts if there is a stock market major sell-off, it is really bad for the U.S. economy at this point because it will spill into Main Street much faster for the reason of that chart than it's ever

happened. I mean, I would love to see that chart normalized for GDP and stretching back into at least before into the 80s to understand just how big of a deal. But my guess is that that's the effect. And so politically, they can't afford it. So what does that mean? That's why Trump says, whoever's the next Federal Reserve President. That was the next thing I wanted to bring up, by the way, because they're saying the quiet parts out loud. I don't know if you guys saw this quote. Well, that's the Fed.

But let me find it really quick. Here we go. Hassett. President Trump is going to put his person there. And once his person is there, then the Fed will no longer be a problem. I mean, literally, it's like Luca Brockwood, keeps with the fishes. Like, I mean, you can't say that. Well, they can.

Independent agency. Oh, the Fed, yeah, take care of that. The point, and I've been ranting a lot, But the point that James that James and Mike were both making in their own different way, and you're making it too, is that they can't afford. They literally can't afford for there to be a massive down draft because it will feed on itself into a recession. They can't afford it.

And so they're going to, they're going to do that. And this trend has been caused by policy, right? 20, at 20 of the past 25 years, we've had negative real interest rates. And it has caused a relentless rise in valuations because as you said, Scott, where the hell are you going to put your money? You're going to put your money in a savings account yielding half a percent. You're going to try to keep up with inflation with long-dated bonds. The average person is not going to do that. So they have been pushing people out on the risk curve by policy, both parties for the better part of 30-some odd years.

Yeah, there's a lot to unpack with the banks and the banks. the Fed, obviously. We know that we're going to get a hell of a lot of liquidity on that side where it's going to work. But interestingly, it's not just the stable coins that have made a ton of money this year. The Federal Reserve paid out a record 186.5 billion to banks last year in interest on reserves. I mean, there's a, and we're getting more Fed liquidity coming in now, which is crazy. We've another 6.8 billion coming in this week. That's 38 billion over the last 10 days. I mean, James, this is the this is your territory. And obviously we have some auctions coming this week that are unlikely to look great.

So just a lot. Yeah, I mean, look, this is the, this is the steady flow of capital that's coming into the markets from the Fed. And we knew they're going to start shoring up the, the bank reserve balances. And you're seeing the Treasury account, the January, the Treasury General account getting drawn down a little bit and bank reserves going up and you've got money coming into short-term T bills. is this is sort of a steady stream it's not it is not going to have the same exact effect as buying

long-term treasuries uh q e like actual q e but it is q e it's it's just q e light you know it's it's capital coming into the markets that that is much needed for bank um you know for the for the bank reserves in order to have enough velocity of capital for the size of GDP we have i mean it's it's just basic math really at that point but you know um i want to know Mike did you guys did you guys touch on Japan at all was this was this actually I mean this is like a meme coin I had given this is way zoomed out but this is a Japanese puns here if that was a day instead of you know a couple decades it's been mentioned we didn't have a morning meeting today we did last week it

just we did before but yeah that's again for some of us who traded Japanese government bonds decades ago, it's about time. I remember putting on position for that three decades ago. Finally it happened. That's my point is we're entering that now and I want to show you a few screens to show you. I'll put out, you know, hold me to them predictions for next year. As you notice, like on X, I've never deleted anything so people can come back and say, yeah, I'm alone you're an idiot. But this is just the latest reading on core CPI, 2.6%. Yeah, it's an aberration. It might bounce next year because of the shutdowns and everything. But the last two decades, it's bottom around one.

Next year, at this time, I think we're talking about core CPI heading towards one. Why? Because I don't think it's different this time. So one thing that's really different is typically this used to have an inverse correlation with the stock market versus gold. Now they're both going down. Right now at 1.54. Let's the amount of ounces of gold equal to one S&P 500.

That's the lowest on a closing basis since almost 2012. It's breaking down. I mean, that was just kind of a prediction, but it happened to gold going up. Next year, I think it's going to happen with stock market going down. So let's go back 100 years. We talk about, okay, we all know about this. This is S&P 500, the Buffett model versus GDP, the highest-night closing basis since 1928. But we also talk about what's talk about a little bit here.

This is just the S&P 500 versus MSCI XUS index. Okay, so we only have 50 years of data in that, but it's peaked near the highest level ever. But here is, again, a key thing I want to focus on for next year. And the things that I'm emboldened by by seeing gold rally and crude oil go down, This is the normal CPI level. Now, I can't do core back 100 years, but I can go back with CPI back 100 years. We've dropped below three. There's nothing to stop it from going to one.

And there's one simple factor. 10% draw down the U.S. S&P 500 and stays down the well. That's 25% of GDP. That, to me, gets crude oil at 40, gets the average gasoline price, which is about 2.8 to 2. Gets natural gas, which is right around 4 to 2. Those are normal bottoms, and it gets normal CPI to 1 and maybe even negative. If it's just, that's what's happening in China. It's trickling down here, and it's the inordinate burden.

The stock market's staying up, and I think it's finally time for just a down year. And yeah, I've been wrong in that one forever. But I was wrong on gold for quite a while. It was long on crude oil for quite a while. I just don't see the fundamental things shifting. One thing that I'll reiterate, the base case I made last year is this next president when it was Trump got elected will face the poor timing of being elected at the same market capitalization, actually higher when Herbert Hoover was elected in 1928.

And it's like Dave said. The indoor and burden stay up is there. We all know it. We all get it. They're cutting rates. We're cutting taxes. Yet we see everybody gets, we're going to have a pretty decent dividend next year from taxes. That's already priced in.

I mean, it's all as it takes is a little trigger for a normal 10% drawdown. And that's all those levels I've been looking for forever going to kick in. And that's why I'm looking at this. Which is why we need a favorable Fed for this administration. Not going to be a problem, game. But see, I think that's going to have it inertly because it's like Trump got elected at the absolute right cycle for energy prices to go down. I love pointing it out. He just added fuel to that.

Perfect. And I think he's getting elected at the absolute time for normal deflation from inflation. And that's what's going to happen. Fed, I think it's going to drop by this time next year. Of course, CPI is at 1% when I expect. We should expect Fed funds around 2%. And that's not going to be in a backup. We're going to just look back and say,

stock market was down for a year that's it just one down here that's how stretched we are now but liquidity is supposed to be the key to everything right and we we keep saying that bitcoin you're going to follow liquidity if take a look at this from the cobbsey letter global money surprise out of control it's now up to record 45 trillion this comes as china's m1 money supply has risen to 16.5 obviously we have 8 trillion in us m1 the highest ever it's not like there's no liquidity right now maybe temporarily you know there there's been a uh flight Lull, but I mean, we have liquidity mooning and skyrocketing. This is obviously driving gold and silver and stock market prices, but it has not been driving

Bitcoin prices. There's only, there's only, it's fact. Well, there's only two times in history when, yeah, I get it. Liquidity matters, but the number one source for all liquidity and the whole world now is the U.S. stock market. And what's the best leading indicator for that is crypto's and they've turned lower. Just pointing out facts. Now, if we said that last year, which I had predicted,

Now the thing is how cheap are they get. Obviously, micro strategy is too cheap, but gave us a great indication. But now they're all handing that way now. I say go with the flow, go with the trend. And if you get bounces in that, be, I think now I look at cryptos as now it's a worthy short, the whole market. And shorting, one is kind of difficult, but the whole market is a worthy short because if it's, if that leading indicator just continues this normal trend, the dominoes follow, and there's good indication for that, just gold having its best year ever versus crude. There's something going on here that, you know, just to be able to say that is a shock. I mean, it's hard for me to countenance the notion of Bitcoin being the leading engine for the stock market

when silver is bigger than Bitcoin and gold is dramatically larger than Bitcoin and they're the two big momentum trades. They're basically just sucking the oxygen out of the room for from a crypto point of view. The stock market has continued to go up following gold. Just hasn't gone. Gold is a new, gold is a new crypto. I mean, it effectively is, well, because of the contract for differences market, the fact that retail all around the world outside of the U.S. And by the way, you know, the high net worth retail can use interactive brokers and trade futures in the U.S. on gold and silver. So don't, you know, don't, you know, underestimate that.

But that market is enormous. And you're seeing that hotball of money is chasing this until they're going to chase it until completion. And so, yeah, you're going to see a major rotation. This is going to take months. This is not a day thing. It's going to take months. It could even take a year, two years.

I mean, you know, these are the sorts of things that don't happen right away. But, you know, Bitcoin led for a while when it was the darling of when it was the fastest horse in the race. But guess what? You know, we've managed to financialize gold and silver to the point where it became a pretty damn fast horse. And the real question is where the relative value is and what happens and how far the trends can go. But, you know, just the reason that a few months ago I turned more bullish than you on golden silver, Mike, is because I believe the hopper. all of money is much more important. I still do. As I said, I would be really surprised. I said it back then. I'll saying it today. I'll be really surprised if we don't see 5,075. I'd be really surprised

if we plateau and top out before those numbers. Nothing has changed. I'm not saying, you know, I'm not raising my 5,000 to 7,500. I'm not raising my 75 to 100. I would, it could overshoot. Maybe it stops here. But it feels to me like those are those things are, those things are baked in the cake. Now, when I said that about Ethereum, when Tom Lee started buying, I was wrong there. I said it was guaranteed to hit 5,000. It only got to 4850. Okay, fine. I screwed up. But the point is that these are the trends and the things that matter. It's where that hot ball of money goes. And when you look at that big global money supply chart, that's telling you that that hotball of money is bigger and bigger. And oh, by the way, China has stenturies of considering silver as money.

centuries. In fact, it's one of the most longstanding trends is that the Chinese people historically have the affinity to silver like the Indians have with gold. And don't underestimate that impact. That's one of the reasons you're seeing this. And frankly, it does the Chinese government good from a geopolitical point of view for the precious metals to continue to relentlessly rise, particularly if you believe that bullion banks are short. Now, I'm not saying they are, but I know there's a lot of conspiracy theorists out on this platform that think that, you know, because there has been in the past times when the bullion banks got themselves short and, you know, there was manipulation.

I just don't think they can do it anymore. I don't think they can manipulate anymore. I tend to doubt that they're short, but there's a lot of people who think that that's the case. So, you know, we'll see what happens. I got to fall up on that because that, what you just said about silver is some of the inklings I got in cryptos in Bitcoin last year from good sources who run a lot of hot money. And the thing I like to point out is having sometimes taking the other side of those type of trades is I completely agree with you. Momentum can easily carry gold to $5,000 an ounce and silver towards $75.80.

It's clearly the case right now. It's not disputable. But my point is when you get to these stages of parabolic rallies, and certainly in commodities like this, silver is much more of a commodity. It's more so than ever. And we've ruined, we know the lessons of monetizing. It hasn't worked. There's only one monetary medal now, and that's gold. But the lessons are you just never, you can take decades of pain buying these levels if you're buying

hell. Now, if you're a strategist, great. If you're a tactical trader, that's why I think next year is going to be ideal for the more tactically traded, orientate people, which is my main focus in crypto's year. Don't own a long or short. Trade it tactically. And to me, that's the key to think about it. Right now, obviously you've got to be long.

And we're getting people piling on. But the point is, historically, these are just level. You've got to be selling when they're yelling and be careful. And that's why I just, you know, remember, I was the guy who was bullish. You know, I took the pain in gold for in 21, 22 and 23 to say it's going above 2000. Finally it did. And then, again, all these people along the miners, they finally get almost 200% returns this year. That is just a lot of long-term pain kicking in and finally get the gain.

And these have to give some back to the market. Don't tempt them. And that's why just be careful with these levels. Do you think TLT is the, you know, bonds or the next version of that? You've had something you've been exceptionally early on, but we'll come. continue to rise in the future. Scott, you're so kind to me. You could just say, Mike, you've been wrong.

And I have been dead wrong in that trade. Admitted, but that's the key thing about running money. Now, I just say it. I have to respect you and everybody knows who does it. Now, it's easier to say, but one benefit I have is I've seen, I've made a lot of money, lost the money training. To me, that's still the next big trade. And one simple little trigger for that is just a down 10% in stock market.

I think that easily gives us 100 base points in TLT. Now, if we go down and stay down for a little while, meaning when you look back, at things like crude oil and say it's the same price as 25 years ago, 20 years ago, that at some point's going to happen. We're going to look at stock market and say that's the same price as 5, 10 years ago. It always happens. This is a question from what peak. That's going to be the next big trade.

It's already happened in China and Japan. Now, China's coming out of it. It's been 30 years. And China's found the exact same mode to buying their own stocks. Now they're doing everything they can to support the economy. But I have to dispute some of those numbers you showed early. The total number I get when I checked money supply in China, I get between $45 and $50 trillion in China alone.

Let's double what the U.S. is doing. Yeah. James, do you take the other side of the bonds will be a good bet debate? There's been a lot of things that have been broken, obviously. I mean, we had over the past few years, we had these historic, like, just where the market was wrong. Like bonds were doing terribly when they should have been doing well. Obviously, the 60-40 portfolio had its worst years of history.

You wrote about this. I mean, the Fed cutting rates, mortgages are still expensive. If things just don't happen the way they're supposed to anymore. Yeah, no, I'm, go back and look for the chart. I've gone on the structural break of the tenure. You know, when we had ZERP for so many years, it just, it was relentless that the rates were going down, down, down. And you had the tenure was just a fantastic investment. That's really what created the 60-40 portfolio.

you know um but the i'm going to find i'm going to find the uh the chart here but the answer is for a trade maybe it's fine for a trade absolutely you know but for a long term investment no i think it'd be a terrible investment because you're going to lose on that in real terms um that's just that's just reality it's not like uh you know and this is a chart actually i'm going to pull this up Scott and and we'll and I'll I'll address this this is a this a chart that I've got that's going to be included in a report that I've done for for unchained we're we're going to put out something together here but your Twitter screen in the back there so let me let me let me let me pull it up hold on a second uh find it here just bear with me share screen oh there okay

now you got um this is this is important for what we're talking about here okay can you see this now that we're good yep yeah i mean and this is this is one of the charts that i'm going to include on that report but the the bottom line is this is this is the 10-year yield and you had this 40-year bond bull market and i just think that that that is clearly structurally over you know that is not we're not going back to zirp we you know we we will have the The interest rates aren't even really what matters. It's the expansion of the money supply at this point. And so, you know, for all the job-owning about the Fed lowering rates

and how it's going to help mortgages, it's not going to help mortgages, you know, you've got, obviously you've got the tenure has been going up. It's not been going down. You know, we lower 100 basis points on the Fed funds, and the tenure goes up 100 basis points. You know, it's not, and there's a reason for that. And the reason is for the long-term structural inflation that's baked into our equations now. I mean, you have to have it.

And so the answer is for a trade, sure, maybe it's a great trade short term. But for long-term, I would not be owning bonds. That sounds like an absolute, terrible place to put money. So let me give you a little counterpoint on that. That chart is the most bullish chart I've ever seen because it's consensus for bonds. And the thing I've heard, I've only been, you know, I started. trading 88 every single time I've heard yields are going out because of inflation and more supply they've been wrong in the long term and the key thing I want to point is we've had that

enduring long term downtrend and bond yields from the 70s for a reason because also and inflation got too high and then we kicked in this significant thing that Jeff Booth likes to point out in the price of tomorrow is the deflationary forces the technology that's absolutely accelerated now you see that in commodities with the exception of one major one gold and it's just starting to accelerate So my point is all that, what you see there is that bounce up to what was basically 5% this year in that long bond there. It's just happened with the U.S. stock market, housing market, condos, everything, getting the most stretched in history, in history. And now we're going to go revert a little bit. We have to keep those elevated.

That's my point is we will revert. There's a question of when. I think it's starting next year. Gold's telling us that, and that yield you see there since the end of the bond market. Typically, that means you're supposed to look back from history and say, yeah, that was great. That was your time to buy the bond market. And I'm only looking at one key thing is every signal I had for last five years or so, the alpha was either in gold or Bitcoin versus beta.

And then last year, obviously I got off that horse for alpha and Bitcoin. Now this year I'm getting off that horse for alpha in gold. And I've only have one alpha left. To me, that's just boni-yields in the U.S. simply going to where they are in China, which is 1.84%. Well, the interesting thing is that's what the administration wants. So you can see that going occurring. It's absolutely what they want to have happened.

It's what they, I don't even want to say word need, but if they want to be able to term out the debt, they need to kind of drive it in that direction. And so it's hard to bet against that case from my perspective. I'm not sure they'll be able to succeed. But if they do succeed, the thing you need to realize is it means that they're getting away with relentless monetary debasement with the rest of the world not caring. And by the way, China's been doing that. Your chart shows you that Chinese bond yields are the most manipulated

thing on the planet they have to be because what rational human being what rational investor would only charge less than 2% for a money supply growth that looks like that you're but you're this is the perfect exact setup that we're seeing in japan's yields are breaking because investors are not having anymore you know they're just they they they refuse to believe this is going to that this can continue forever and ever and ever and ever amen but just to put it in perspective with Japanese inflation running it over 3%. The JGBB is still a negative 1% locked in unless you think they're going to bring inflation down. That's correct. When you're printing money and running stock deficits, fiscal deficits over 200 over double GDP, that's a really

hard thing to continue. I mean, there is a good reason why, you know, in the Bitcoin standard safety in us talks about hyper-Bitcoinization. But what we're basically seeing, is a Fiat system that is in its, it has started its inevitable decline because people eventually can't handle it and you have to go to manipulation. Where would the JGBBs be if the Japanese government didn't buy half of them? Where would they be? I mean, I think bond yields in Japan would be at four or five percent. Easily. And that's the point of Jeff Booth, the price of tomorrow is not about, oh, we're going to have deflation. The point is that it is, it is necessary. for central banks to battle

that deflation with monetary expansion. And that is the exact point that we're making what's happening in Japan. It's happened in China and it's happening here. Everybody's serving Japanese. That's your own quote, Mike. Yeah. And the thing

to think about is let's go back to the great song before. Scott talked about AI. I mean, the ultimate trend in productivity growth in global markets is almost parabolic. And And so that is massively deflationary from a consumer point of view, but it doesn't do a damn thing for asset inflation. And so, you know, this trend of all monetary debasement going into asset inflation is alive and well, is likely to reaccelerate.

And so when we start talking about it's necessary to keep the economy going, which is what we showed with the margin expansion. That's right. So it is extremely important to consider the denominator. And that's why in all of these things, that doesn't mean. I mean, people who think, you know, anyone who thinks that this is a license to say that things can't collapse in them themselves, when you have a debt-based economy, you can get a vicious cycle. That can happen. I think that if political wins change or play out in a way that we could easily see it all collapse in and of itself, if they can't get and do the things they want to do, it's going to basically stop growing. and if it stops growing and we end up with a far, you know, whatever, call left-wing populism

where it's all taxes and regulation as opposed to deregulation, things could start looking very grim and the market will be looking at that in advance. You know, there's a lot of different, there are many, many different, you know, cross-currents here, but the most important thing to understand is there's a flywheel going on. I don't mean the flywheel in the sense of infinite money glitches or bullshit like that. I mean, they are on a flywheel and they cannot. have the top stop spinning because when you're in a debt-based economy you have to and so and and that has to happen and so what my when Mike talks about normal corrections and reversions I mean my gut tells

me it has to happen but my gut also tells me that they can't afford to let it happen and they can't let it it it'll happen regardless of what the government wants because what we just talked about in the beginning of the show of momentum players and you know and the the the consequences of leverage. However, the flip side of it is they cannot allow for us to go into a deep recession or depression. It's just, it's, it's, the, the monetary debasement will come rapidly in order to fight that. And so, you know, Mike, if we're, we're watching in real time, the government now admit that the Fed is not a, you know, political arm. They're going to install somebody who is favorable to this administration

as the head of the Fed, okay? So now you're going to have a new chair and what do you think happens to a 10 year? What do you think happens to 30 year if they start lowering rates too quickly or, you know, inject too much liquidity into the markets

that is more of a QE style rather than just this trickle of QE, you know, rather than QE light? there was a thing that really kept me bullish gold starting mainly in 2022 is when central banks started accumulating. Well, the deepest, the most significant essential bank on the planet is announced they're starting to buy treasuries. To me, that's part of a good inning in baseball starting with a walk. It's just getting started. They will not allow. They will not allow. To me, it just says, thank you. Join that trade. And I can't give investment advice, but no one's

going to ever push back when they say just overweight treasuries. And to me, it's just a question, how far you go out in the curve. But what you just mentioned is a key thing that's just happening in the space. The whole populace is turning left. Why? Because number one reason is inflation. And what's the number one reason that we pumped, that we got inflation was because we pumped it up the liquidity too high. We got assets too high. Now they're still to lower. And we made all those rich people rich. And the average person in this country, which is 55% wage earners is starting to get pissed off. And they're going to continue. Let's look at cycles. In most midterms, you always push back against the comments. Now, this one particularly, because he's denying the

In fact, my eggs cost more than they did a year ago and everything we buy. He still costs more than a year ago. He seems to not get it. It's typical rich guy. He doesn't understand it. But it's losing. To my point, it's the cycle we talked about. You guys pushed back.

I mean, inflation is now we've learned that lesson of too much liquidity in inflation. It's the end game. Cryptos are telling me that. Golds tell me that. Now, if you want to talk about debasement of currency, I'm like, yeah, thank you. But still, we all realize you don't ever want to spend gold or Bitcoin. If they're supposed to appreciate, you want to spend dollars, something that appreciates maybe 2% a year. I'm pointing out next year we can easily get to 2% core, maybe 1% in a normal cycle.

To me, this is the whole turn has started, and I'm emboldened to say that by what's happened with gold versus crude oil this year. Maybe I can look back from the future say, yeah, it was a faint, it was a false signal, and we got lucky. We're supposed to buy these highly speculative digital assets with unlimited supply. Now we'll repeat that because that's what's happening. People are realizing there's four precious metals. They're up a lot in a good year where they should be. That's time to be careful. And then there's millions of these other things that Bitcoin was just the first.

Wouldn't you expect that if they cut rates that fast and we see everything that low, that first we would have massive inflation and we wouldn't get to deflation yet next year? So it's an if statement that's implausible. They can't cut rates that fast. They'll get a good reason. Now, that's my point. If you can get a little drop in the stock market, they'll cut rates, they'll be a great trade. It'll go back up and might be the bigger picture.

But the higher your boost the assets, the harder they fall. It's just a question of when. Now, we've boosting up so high, as I keep point out, they keep getting higher, gold's figuring out, but the key point is what James says is right. The bond market is telling the Fed they are wrong. It's the end game. You should not be cutting rates because yields are beginning going up. Like that long bond right now at $4.84 with Fed funds running three is just, well, just a little bit above three is telling you that, yeah, that's the wrong trade. But it's all dependent on the stock market. It's up 15% this year. It's down 10%. That's all that's going to matter. But it's also telling you not that just the Fed is wrong. It's telling you that the market's really understanding that we're driven by fiscal deficits now. And those deficits are not stopping. This is not ending. The Doge Commission did nothing, you know.

And we can play around with numbers and show what the impact of tariffs are or what they could be or what they should be or what they might be. It doesn't matter. All that matters is the most. market is understanding that fiscal deficits are going to continue and that's driving this and it's and that's not and it's likely to get worse rather than get better and that's just that's just reality i just find it very hard to wrap my head around hey if everything's about to blow up where should i put my money in dollars well first of all let's be clear i don't think everything is going to blow up i don't just say absolutely the mentality if you believe something but you have to look at the denominator

Every time you say the prices are stretched and you have to remember over double, literally double the amount of dollars. So that means that the asset prices that you're looking at have to be adjusted for that when you look at it. And that changes the dynamic rather significantly. It just does. And this notion that consumer inflation is a direct line from interest rates is just, it's just wrong. I mean, there's just no data to suggest it. Yeah, interest rates 100% will impact aggregate demand. And the reason he wants to cut rates is because who pays those higher rates?

Well, who pays the higher rates are homeowners and the average person. And it also creates, when you lower rates, it also stimulates business investment, which, of course, also helps, you know, create more automation and hurts the job market, etc. We've seen these trends play out over decades. So the notion, the mental model that says you need interest rates going up to hit consumer inflation, It was wrong in 1982 when I got a B plus in my macro class because Professor Gordon at the time who wrote the book, the book, probably the most popular book in intermediate macro back in those dark ages, said it would take seven years of recession to break the back of inflation. But what actually happened was inflationary expectations were brought crashing, crashing down when Volker did what he did, and it took less than 18 months. And, you know, we saw that then.

So interest rates then broke the back of aggregate demand. It did. And so people are saying, oh, okay, well, everything is the same now. Well, no, the economy is different. For the last 25 years, we've had really low interest rates and really low consumer inflation. Why? Driven by productivity. What is the single biggest trend, Scott, that you just said that's happening?

It's something that's a massive change to productivity. Now, it will not affect certain things. The reason, it's not eggs that are the issue, Mike. It's not food that's the issue. Yeah, there have been some increases, but it's nowhere near as well. bad as it was. And eggs, in fact, have come down because of the stupidity of killing all the chickens under the previous administration. But all that has nothing to do with it. Where the midterms are going to be a disaster for the Republicans, it's not because the world's moving left. It's because

people's medical insurance and medical care costs are going through the roof. Not because medical insurance, home insurance, car insurance. It's because the insurance company lobbies have basically captured both parties and who's ever power is going to take the fall for it. And so that's what you're seeing. You know, in fact, the data is showing a really terrible trend for the, for the United States, which is young men are moving to the right, young women are moving to the left, and our fertility rates are dropping off a cliff, which is a huge freaking problem. And it's one that Elon talks about that. It's global, but it's very true in the United States as well. By the way, that's exactly

that in Korea, and they're facing an absolute disaster for that. So we have all sorts of socioeconomic trends or sociological trends that are being magnified by social media we can talk about it but it's not nearly as black and white as you said it but both parties whoever is in power will get just destroyed if you make it so the people can't afford their own health and that's what's happening that is why the midterms are shaping up to be this bad and and honestly it's hard to believe that the Republicans are this dumb that they're falling into the trap the Democrats are setting on this right But it is what it is. And that's what's happening.

So a question I guess I can ask all of us is the number one measures to really indicate consumer sentiment in this country. Unlettered gas prices, gas prices going down, which is down on a one-year basis, 6%. And the stock market going up, which on a one-year basis is up on its 20 percent. Yet consumer sentiments in the dump. So what happens next year at this time if we get a little backup in the stock market? To me, this is an accident way to happen. And I'm not talking about, you know, just a normal reversion that is normal deflation historically. I mentioned another book, The Price of Time by Edward Chancellor.

It's always happened. Just a question when. It's happening in China. To me, next year is a year. I've been wrong for a while. But I like to ask the question, what stops these trajectories of consumers just being indulgems? Yet all the indications are they should be fine. Yeah.

That's a loaded and longer question here. Mike, and one of the problems that can't be solved with just a market drawdown is the fact that so much of the spending is coming out of the top 10% of this case-shaped economy. And so it's structurally what Dave said is really important. We need to structurally change how healthcare and all the insurance companies that have been emboldened with both sides of the aisle. to you know to have the ability to to just relentlessly raise rates on everything and that's and that is taking a much larger percentage of the lower demographics uh income than than any of the

the top 10 percent the top 10 percent barely feel it whereas the lower 50 percent are being absolutely destroyed by it yeah it's gonna make a lot much longer conversation that we can have throughout 2026, I think. But, yeah, where's Bitcoin now? 90-ish? Yeah. For 90, you're going to live here for a while. It's worth summing up, since we probably won't do the show next week,

that there's a major option expiration coming up. And whatever the trend that's going to start is going to start after it, it'll probably be starting next week. But, you know, next week is this is the one time of year when most of the world has synchronized holidays. And so, you know, who knows? in a low liquidity environment what could happen you could see $10,000 moves in either direction in fact it wouldn't surprise me to see both it wouldn't surprise David is talking about here is that

you know as you get as you get to 90,000 which is where we're pinned right now you've got there's so many calls that have been that have been written that the the buyers of those calls and the market makers are selling Bitcoin into it as a delta hedge against the calls that they're long because they're the ones who are buying the calls from the investors and then i think it's 85 000 somewhere if you go down a little bit lower i think it's 85 000 that the uh it's the other side of the trade so it's just kind of pinned between 85 000 and 90 000 we'll see if it breaks through i mean it could break through it doesn't have to be pinned here yeah that is a a large headwind for uh for bitcoin it's a that's a that's a great

insight in that post yeah if you look at the bitcoin daily chart. And last week, I think every single day last week, except for one, but basically it hit mid-8-8-5s and tested just under 90 or just above every single day. It's being liquidated, but every day, price was hitting both that low and that high. So whether it's anecdotal or coincidence, I don't think so, but there's a lot of evidence of that. All right, guys, 10.06 a.m. We did it once again. Another great macro Monday. Mike, we missed the morning meeting. But, you know, we'll run it back when we come back. next time. Everybody, thanks for listening. Dave and I, presumably will be on Crypto Town Hall.

Dave, you're going to be there today. I know you had a lot of time. I'll be a few minutes late. Yeah, I have. I've got to get somewhere else before I do it, which is why we got to run. Thank you, everybody. It's been another great one. We will see you next time. Bye. Everyone's looking for smarter ways to build their Bitcoin stack. Well, here's one most people overlook. You can earn Bitcoin every single time you spend without ever buying it directly. That's where today's video sponsor, Gemini, comes in. The Gemini credit card gives you instant crypto rewards on every purchase and there's no annual fee. It's a MasterCard world elite so you can use it anywhere MasterCard is accepted.

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