The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Breaks HIGHER as Stocks Fall - $70K Is Back in Play

Episode Date: August 18, 2026

Bitcoin breaks above $64K while stocks pull back, showing relative strength as the market waits for a larger move. Meanwhile, CLARITY Act odds have collapsed amid ongoing political delays, while Tom Lee’s BitMine nears its goal of controlling 5% of Ethereum’s supply. Elsewhere, Robinhood Chain sees strong TVL growth and South Korea joins 30+ jurisdictions restricting Polymarket. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bitcoin breaks higher as stocks fall. Yes, it was a limited occurrence there, but many talking about 70,000 being back in sight. Bitcoin above 64 on the day that stocks fell is like seeing a unicorn on the moon. Yes, Bitcoin outperforming stocks, very exciting, totally titleworthy. There's not so much to talk about. But we do have Andrew and Tillman, of course, and one of our favorites, Paget here from Gemini to talk about all of it. Let's go. Good morning to the 17 people last left here in Crypto.

I love you all. I wish you were all here on the beach with me because I'm on the beach. As you can see at my beach house, the deck can't really see it. It goes directly into the ocean. It's not AI. We have a deck that attaches into the ocean directly. I'm so bad at this now. It's August, guys.

It's nice to see you all. Hi, Padgett. And now it feels like we're at the point where I'm almost embarrassed to have a title. Like, whatever it is. It's, you know, like we broke high. It was like a 2% outperformance for one day. I can show you that, but I do have it here if you guys care. So podcast narratives are now just whatever Peter Schiff has to say.

Why didn't it go and go down today? Every single day my title is going to be Peter Schiff says. What is class? And why do we have their chart up on the screen? It's data. It's important on chain. It's become less the, we outperform the stock market today. That's yesterday.

Bitcoin only outperform the S&P on around one third of trading days over the last three months. That seems high, to be honest. This is the longest underperformance streak we've seen over the last six years of history. The question now is whether this is the start of a trend or just one of those three days. I mean, it's one day. But you know what? Maybe we should, that we should just talk about how dumb crypto media is and how I've followed. into that trap. Padgett, good morning. Welcome.

You know, you have some insight into this. It's been a little slow, right? But is this normal summer doldrums, in your opinion, or is there something else going on here? Yeah, I think first and foremost, good morning to all of you. Lovely to see all of your faces. But yes, it's mid to late August. I think we're seeing this across the board, holding crypto and elsewhere, right? Everyone's heading back to school, finishing up vacations, market activity is pretty slow news cycle definitely equally as slow so i think we're seeing some of those posts trying to fish at whatever we can get um i was just watching cnbc and we had scaramucci speaking about how bullish he still is on bitcoin and long term and i think quite frankly i agree

so um wanted to kind of start off on a positive there you know obviously there's been some events it's been pretty slow news cycle-wise, not too much price action, but pretty typical that Q3 is not that exciting. And then Q4 we pick back up. So I'm hopeful. Yeah, I couldn't agree more. I think, you know, summer is to be expected a pretty slow time. But I also think that, you know, just the macro, you know, events that are taking place right now, you know, everywhere from war to every, Markets hate uncertainty, and there's a lot of uncertainty out there is the way I look at it in simple terms. I think crypto does have a place to shine here in the near future with AI and the payments that are going to be needed across the new digital landscape that we're building. I think that's going to be the next place where we finally get utility across some of our dear and loved alt coins.

I think that's going to be the next narrative that really is going to stick. I do see connecting tissue across all markets, across all exchanges. This is an exciting time to be alive as it pertains to 24-7 markets, 365, and pretty much trading whatever you want to trade, whenever you want to trade it, in whatever type of derivative product that you want to trade it in. that's going to provide more inclusive, you know, participation from more people. And it's also going to provide a lot of new tools and new tricks for the professionals that they can use for arbitrage and all sorts of stuff.

So I think that, you know, it takes a long time to build that type of infrastructure and we're seeing that right now. But take the bigger view, I think, if you're feeling bad about crypto and look at how much buildout is going on right now. How much infrastructure. The largest players in finance are literally in the basement cranking as hard as they can to get these products out to the market. Andrew's basement. We've heard the sounds. I've heard them. You don't know, but we heard sounds from Andrew's basement every Tuesday for about six months. And it's out like they're cranking down infrastructure down there. About nine months. That's a great setup, by the way. I would like to note

that the S&P 500 is about 30 basis points from another all-time high. Never. But another fun fact, anytime you use the term basis points, you simply sound smarter. So that's why I throw it in. Also, another fun fact, Bitcoin over the past 12 months is down 45.78%. The S&P is up 23.53%. Yesterday. Dropping knowledge over here.

I mean, that's only a Delta variance of about 70%. So it's, yeah, doldrums and crypto and all that stuff. It's interesting to see, you know, I saw somebody talking about, you know, Bitcoin lending, you know, yesterday. And it was like, well, here you can get 11% and here you get 9%. And I'm like, time out. You can just put your Bitcoin into ETFs at Morgan Stanley and get a 5%, you know, securities based loan. Like, what are we talking about? So to Tillman's point.

Yes, but then you don't have the benefit of self-custody, which is... Right. So to Tillman's point, the building is happening. Another fun fact, Morgan Stanley's spot that Quinn ETF has not had any outflows since inception. So that's also of interest. So again, you know, building in the traditional financial space is, continuing and not slowing down. So whether we like it or not, the reality is,

is that crypto will just become banking. Now, that doesn't mean that there's enormous innovation that will have happened over a period of time, 24-7 trading, tokenized everything, the real-world asset stuff, yada, yada, yada. There was an announcement just yesterday. I think it was a NASDAQ or something is I don't remember.

We're going to 23.5.5 or whatever than a 235. 23.5. 23.6. 4.9. 8. Yeah. So all this stuff came from crypto. Like, we should be proud of this stuff and not downplay it. But at the same time, from a performance standpoint, we're just a little bit behind. Just a smidge. Two basis points.

Yesterday. But yesterday. I mean, the 24-7-365 everything market is amazing, and we should be proud that came from crypto, but the widespread adoption of it is probably the sign of end times. Any time in history that people could gamble on anything 24-7-365 and chose to do so is usually a sign that they're not feeling particularly economically stable or financial company. I'm not going to be gambling 24-7 my robot. Yeah, but what was the stat? There was something that came out yesterday that, like, Gen Z is spending more

than investing or something. It was crazy. Listen, technology, the markets, yes, are going 24-7, but technology is going to meet the markets 24-7. Automation, our company, I mean, we're right in the throes of it. Managing the markets right now with the tool sets that you have is very difficult. but that's changing very rapidly. Software is getting developed at great neck speed. And I don't think it's as scary as, you know, if you take a snapshot in time, you can kind of paint a picture any way you want to.

And yes, we are in major growing pains and there's lack of clarity and all sorts of stuff going on that is inhibiting kind of us moving forward beyond some of the stumbling blocks that we've seen in the past. But look at literally the technological boom that we're on the precipice of with AI. And if you intertwine that with trading, I mean, come on. This is going to be an exciting. Volts are going to have thousands of products in them that give you wide diversification over whatever you want to be diversified over. And they're going to be managed 24-7, no rebalancing every quarter with your, you know, registered investment advisor. It's going to be instantaneous. And it's going to be done based upon volatility that presents itself.

and how you maximize that volatility against your goal set, right? Because volatility is a gift. And every single thing that we've been talking about is going to only increase the volatility across those markets. But if you know how to harvest it, it's going to be something to be old. I just wanted to show you this. Gen Z swaps retirement savings for sports betting. More than half of Gen Z adults age 18 to 29 put money they had intended to invest for

retirement. It's a sports betting over the past. First of all, no 18 to 29-year-olds are putting money. money and retirement. What are we talking about? How many 24-year-olds do you know are really committed to they're putting money at their way of retirement? I bet one. I'm coming on. What are we talking about? Well, no, I think let's be honest, though. They're trying to build a new cycle. And I think, quite frankly, with all the predictions market activity, with every World Cup announcement, right, the news cycle's been so focused there that, yeah, if you are 24 years old and not

participating in predictions, you're kind of silly and you're missing out. So, um, well, predictions are coming to Charles Schwab. Yes. Yeah. I mean like, you know, Gemini, you guys are doing a ton of business when it, when it comes to predictions. Charles Schwab announces that they're adding predictions to their platform. Charles Schwab, right? So these 18 to 29 year old, Charles Schwab's only going to be doing it with markets, like market-based predictions. But five years from now, it'll be everything. And so those 29-year-olds will now be 34-year-olds and they'll be like, well, I can do a little bit of predictions over here and a little bit of SFP over here and a little bit of space X over here. And yeah, have money left. They're betting at the track.

Yeah. Well, welcome, welcome to 2026. We're getting old, man. We're just getting old. That's just just the truth of it. This is all happening. Here's my rebuttal to what you just said. It's like, yeah, we're betting. the track. But when I was in college, we were betting in dorm rooms on dice and cards. And like, we've always been betting. That's the truth. The question is, is like, how safe is it? How regulated is it? How accessible is it to people who are minors? Like, those things, we can build proper infrastructure around it. And, you know, at the end of the day, people are going to do it and people want to do it. And I think that if you look at compared to like day trading by

yourself manually or compared to buying lottery tickets, there's a lot worse ways to spend your money than to try to apply it to something that you're passionate about and your college about. I'm what the kids, these Gen Ziers, are losing money, it's worth spending. I'm what they call a washed unc. That's right. That's absolutely. But honestly, what an awesome way to no longer have to just like debate something endlessly, right, and actually have a mechanism behind a probability of something happened. Like, you can make money off of your opinion. I agree. I think prediction markets are good. I just, you know, I'm skeptical of where we are in society with, you know, $40 trillion debt and the highest, you know, debt and inflation rising,

whether they tell us it is or not, and people willing, you know, there was the story in South Korea that our retirees were trading in their savings and insurance to get long leveraged ETFs on SK Hynix and Samsung. And then we had like seven KOSPI circuit breakers down for the next month. I mean, people, you know, we find creative ways to lose money when people feel like they need massive upside because they're not getting ahead. The same kind of things were said when we were moving from mutual funds to ETFs. You just don't remember it.

Everybody was talking about ETFs are going to break the markets. going to have huge down days. This is too volatile. People are going to get hurt. Money's going to be lost and they were wrong. We should probably lean into the truth that at least, you know, traditional markets, they just don't stop going up. You know what I mean? Like there may be a downturn. I saw another tweet like, oh, historically during midterm years from August to October, the S&P goes down 7%. Well, good luck with that one this year. Like, okay, maybe it goes down

70 basis points. There's basis points again. 70 basis points instead of 700 basis points, right? Because markets are now calibrated in a way that when boomers see markets go down 1.5% they're like, oh, awesome, shovel more money in there. That's just how they've been conditioned

and how it works now. And so, yeah, I mean, I'm not worried about additional access to investable stuff. The likes of Jeff Park and Padgett will figure out cool ways to build products that maximize your opportunity with that volatility that exists in prediction markets. Or else Charles Schwab wouldn't be touching it. They'll figure out products, you know what I mean? Yeah, I mean, we were, Padgett, we were talking about this just briefly before, right? there still is a lot of uncertainty around prediction markets, right? I mean, this one of the stories South Korea joins more than 30 jurisdictions restricting

polymarket access. We're at that point right now where it's like everybody's suing everybody, half the people are banning it. You're not even clear whether you're banned or not if you're in the United States because the state regulator will tell you you can't operate and then the CFTC comes over the top and tells you you must operate, right? I know Gemini is interested in this space, obviously. I mean, how much you have to handicap this regulatory uncertainty or is this one of those

unstoppable trains and it's just going to work out. Yeah, I mean, obviously I can't speak to exactly what's going to happen, but I think, you know, generally speaking in terms of we launched our prediction marketplace back in December, I think they're super important. I think they're really exciting. It's definitely like an emerging financial market and it's kind of cool. You're seeing all of this converge together. And that's kind of what I'm like hearing us all say, right? Like, okay, the market's slow, but everyone's building. Schwab is coming out with this. Nasdaq's moving to 24, 23, whatever in December. All this stuff is going on.

Like, that's kind of crypto and Bitcoin on the back end of everything, which I love to see. I think on the prediction market piece, quite frankly, like at Gem and I were really focused on trying to build responsibly what the regulation turns out to be. Obviously, I don't know and don't have control over. So it's just staying aware and building accordingly. It just seems like, to me, it seems like maybe. in certain place. I mean, New York Hates fun. We know that.

Well, this is, just take those headlines and push them back to 2019 and it changed from prediction markets to crypto. Do you have the same headlines? Listen, sports was this 10 years ago. You couldn't take a sports bet anywhere. You had to have a bookie.

And now you can literally, a six-year-old can place bet. I can get on how many yards Tillman Holloway will get in the game. Again, People get what they want. That's the nature of markets, especially capitalist markets. People get what they want.

And you can't ignore the volume. You can't ignore the participation from every major exchange has prediction markets. In my opinion, it's kind of the cat's out of the bag. It's here to stay. Yeah, I think so too. But it's going to be a really weird time, I think, to figure. that all out. I mean, here's another trying. I know if she saw this. I mean, J.P. Morgan debanking is someone. We just call that Tuesday, but J.P. Morgan, D. Bank, probably marked

last year of a regulatory concern, source says, right? So that was probably a big oops on their part, to be honest, because that was before prediction markets kind of proliferated. But it's going to be messy. That's all I would say. It is. Again, prediction markets are headlines or crypto headlines from three to four or five years ago. That's another headline that sounds like, A, JPMorgan, debanked uniswap, blah, blah, blah. Same thing, right? That's 2020. But don't think that that just speaks to, like, the maturity of where everyone has to be?

Like, we've always seen this herd mentality around everything. But at this point, to me, this, like, Wall Street, everyone is recognizing that none of this is going anywhere. So, okay, you can bank prediction markets. You can debank prediction markets. You can set rules, not set rules. Like, at some point, it's all coming together. I think if we continue to look at that macro. level, like we're all having the same conversation.

Yeah, and I think they're actually looking at like this transfer of wealth that's about to take place. And if you think about like the generation above me, the boomers, I think Andrew's right. They still control the market firmly. They have all the wealth. Wherever they want to point it is kind of what the major attention has been focused. focused on, whether it be ETFs or the likes, I think that there's pretty good evidence to point to that that's going to change in the near future based upon the activity that we see in my generation and younger. And if you take the activity and the participation levels that you see across the prediction markets, across crypto, across all these kind of alternative asset classes,

it dwarfs the participation of the boomer class dwarfs it they are actively involved they're participating in the giveaways they're participating in the incentive packages they're trying to build the community aspect of being involved in it like that mean coin type gravity is real for that age group and I think we're just going to see finance morph to that very very seamlessly and I think they've already started to because I think the transition of wealth's already started. I think we'll see over the next 15 years the vast majority of it kind of come over. Yeah, all that stuff exists in TradFi. There are conferences for TradFi.

There are packs in TradFi. You know, you're a Tesla guy. You're an Nvidia guy. You're committed to a particular position. You know, those all exist. They're just a little more muted. Like you're not going. to see a guy in a board ape suit at a Tradfai conference, right?

Now, he may be wearing a different kind of suit that's a little more appropriate, but it's not, you know, like they're having a salt conference out in Wyoming. Like their version of a board ape suit is a vest, right? It's a vest with a certain logo, and you're in that logo, right? And you've got a little lanyard. So that stuff exists. It's just not as absurd. Okay, so over all this time, right, we've dropped the absurdity, right?

And kind of what I would deem like the immaturity of the crypto market and all the original crypto participants. And now, yes, we're leaning more tradfai. We're getting, you know, the hedge fund, Patagonia vest is coming out at the crypto conferences and so on. But, I mean, I think, again, I just try to focus on the infrastructure piece and the product piece. Like if all of these macro, what you're wearing, who's there.

of what it looks like are changing. To me, we're heading in the right direction because that means it's become mainstream. All of the people that when I started in this space, when you guys all started to invest far beyond me, but let's call it a decade ago, even years ago, nothing. I can just throw that in on the side long before I even got involved here.

But still, I mean, I've been in the space for a decade. It's changed tremendously. Even five years ago, the conversation, looking at crypto from a traditional finance perspective was, oh, this is an alternative. Like, this is going to be something else. This is in a box over here. Now it's completely come together, whether they maybe wanted to or not, that there's no choice. And I think we're seeing that in all the conferences.

That being said, like, I love when I turn on CNBC. And the first thing that's being talked about is crypto, is Bitcoin price. I mean, I don't know if I'm in full agreement with all of the long. term trends that like ScareMucci this morning was talking about, but I think we're all optimistic. Like, do you think we get back to 100K? Yeah, like, yeah, ever? Ever is a long term. I mean, ever, of course.

End of this year, Q4, like, what does that look like? Yeah, no, I think next year, if I were to put a number and a date and a time on it, which is always dangerous, but I'm, I like to live dangerously. Like, clippiness and repeatedly playing it. Yeah. So, I mean, listen, like Q3 next year would put a one year, you know, time table on it. That's a meaningful return, right? Let's like 70% or something crazy from where we are now. Like, that's not a bad number for a 12 month return. So yeah, we're going to go through it. But again, there will be a moment where crypto really, really participates in all the architecture. that's being built and there's a flash moment that says, okay, all this architecture matters. Is it investable?

Is there a slowdown in AI? Or is there finally a cross-referencing with AI that makes sense and really comes to light? Is there a Jensen, what's his face from Evida that says something about crypto associated with the supercomputers and all the chips that they're making? Like we're only one moment away from that. So, you know, it'd stay invested, right?

Like for a decade, Micron was completely dead money. It went nowhere. And then it went up a thousand percent in one year, right? So even if that's the case, Microsoft did the same thing from like 1999 to 2009. Dead money went nowhere. Then it was the best performing stock for like five years. So, you know, if you have to think a little bit, fay-ish, that's okay.

You know, I'm happy to wait for a 200% year. I can't wait to get a Jensk what's his name on the podcast. Yeah, yeah, he's a good guy. He's, you know, he's a leather jacket and the whole thing, you know what I mean? Yeah, I love that we are talking about 100 when we're at 64, though, right? You know, so, but it's nice that

we have this optimism, page, to your point. Like, I think it's right. He used to be giving 250, five years ago, it was 250. So if now we're talking about 100 in I think we're being extremely measured. Yeah. Well, let's put Padgett down for 100K in 2007, right?

Let's put it on our Twitter. I think 100, December, December. If I was going to make a prediction price, I don't like to make predictions, but I think that the four-year cycle is dead. I think Wall Street controls the cycles now. And I think that there's a pretty good trap being set up for this October term. around. I would expect if just playing on the emotion and the experience that I've had in the market is like that's when the last bit of blood gets squeezed out typically. And I would

expect some volatility around that time. And then, you know, depending upon what, how much volatility, how much participation, how much blood gets squeezed out, you know, you'll see a delay and chop until you see some kind of explosion out of the hole. That would be my intention. I would be looking around January kind of when everybody's. Hey, real quickly, Scott, I'm going to take over the podcast if you don't mind. But should we be talking about all the crazy cold storage stuff? Like we talked about cold card for a minute, but there's been extra stuff. Like I, you know, she probably can't get specific.

But I would imagine that Gemini, you're seeing some inflows moving stuff onto exchanges versus cold storage. I would think that's a little bit of a trend. at some point on your end? Yeah, no, I think super fair to bring it up. And obviously we can get into the whole deep dive on self-custody versus working with a QC, a capital Q, capital C qualified custodian like Gemini, right? But I think actually the cold card hack and some of these other are not hacked, but I think maybe infrastructure mishap, it's a better way to call a lot of these events.

It really hasn't had the impacts that honestly I would have expected. I think institutional investors didn't really get impacted. It was original, you know, Bitcoin investors who made their past keys and kind of forgot about something at some point and unfortunately went through this. But no institutional investors had an issue. I mean, it actually, I mean, I hate to say this and be cynical. That's hard. I don't want to say they like it.

They look down to like those idiot nerds and they're like and their calculators and flash drives. We're selling ETFs, right? And you saw ETF inflow. You're going to see people buying ETFs getting fed up. I'm hearing about it all the time. I don't want to deal with this self-custy. Listen, I'm a pretty passionate about self-custody. But I also have like a seven-day scavenger hunt set for my wife and kids if ever,

and I can't send you crypto right now if I wanted to. I think that's kind of ridiculous. And also like the whole be your own bank turns into being your own bank security thing is a little scary way. when your data is being briefed, right? I mean, you just don't have to look beyond France to see how bad it can be if somebody gets your data and knows that you're a crypto holder. And I don't think most people want that. I think it's sort of an existential crisis,

but to your point, benefits institutions who will say, come to me, safe custodian, you know? Yeah, exactly. Like centralized custody is completely being validated, right? I mean, that infrastructure, why we build it the way that we have, it's just like safety first come here, right? And I think for a lot who are newer to this base, yes, they've chosen to either go the ETF route immediately or just go right into a Gemini, Coinbase, Crack and et cetera, because of that ease. Yeah, I don't know. I feel like in the past, you know, two years, there's always a story that comes up.

But this is kind of the one that I mean, the price didn't get impacted. Nothing really happened. Well, and there's been additional data breaches. Like there's data breaches for like three or four other. companies. And it kind of feels like there's been data breaches that they probably haven't talked about. They were like, well, everybody's doing it. So let's just tell them. Let's talk about how data breach that we have. Come clean while you can. Yeah. I mean, it was so bad when it happened to Ledger. Now it's like, the Pascal, you know, the CEO of Ledgers out there is like,

see, everybody come together, South Country. It's not just, you know, and the treasurer. Now, bits of gold in Israel. I don't know if you saw this one yesterday, over 200,000. customers? Like how do something called bits of gold have 200,000 customers, first of all? But like, and they, it's just scary. Well, Scott, you had a great tweet. Like, you can self-custody, but, you know, when you buy the actual product to self-custody, it feels like giving away your data. But there's no really good solution, and I think it's a problem, you know. You're testing the device provider, right? And you're trusting the firmware updates.

To Padgett's point, I don't know very many people that were affected by this. I think it is tragic for the people that lost the money, but it's comical, honestly, for a lot of the Bitcoin community that are out there still promoting rolling dice for their own entropy. I think that Wall Street has solved these issues a long time ago, and it's no different than any other insurance products that exist. I insure against catastrophic risk health-wise. I insure life insurance. I insure at the bank there's insurance. There's FDIC coverage. Crypto has some of the best insurance coverage that exists today. I have many accounts that have insurance up to $5 million of coverage.

So it's just laughable that we're talking about like catastrophic risk being attached to, you know, your seed phrase. If you want the benefits without any of the risk, keep some cash on your cold storage wallet, but think about it as cash. It's no different than cash you pull out of the bank. It's there in your house. If your house burns down, you're going to lose it. There's a lot of risk in holding that in your cold storage wallet.

It's the counterparty risk thing that kills me, right? Because there was this whole year than now maxi movement until literally last month or this month. Instead, not your keys, not your coins. Look at FDX. Look at Voyager. Look at Celsius. Like you had the list. And now there's this like come to Jesus moment where, oh, by the way, we also have

counterparty risk in hardware wallets. And sadly, the response is to point the finger at the victims and say, you didn't do this right. You should have rolled the other magic dice. And you didn't, you know, put it in the right safety deposit box and you didn't store it and you didn't, you know, engrave it and steal and eat it. For the most part of a whole hardware wallet, I think the blame falls solely on the provider. that's literally the base functionality of a wallet is to generate random seed phrases. Otherwise, they have a backdoor into everyone's seed phrase or there is a back door into everyone's seed phrase.

I've seen the amount of people who lost their Bitcoin from centralized exchanges versus self-custy is very one-sided against self-custy. That's actually not true. Willie Wu posted it after Cold Card, more Bitcoin has been lost in self-custody than has been lost in centralized exchanges. Okay, so I think that is a fact. A sad fact, I don't believe, you know, but it is. I can find it. No, no, no, it is, it is a fact. And I think it brings my mind, you know, again, Scott of exactly what you said, not your keys, not your crypto. Like when I first started in the space, people were, you know, put in hardware wallets in holes in their backyard.

And it was a very different time in terms of self-custody. I think the conversation around ownership is really where that self-custody piece stands. but I think the important piece now is actually, okay, what's the differentiation between ownership and privacy, right? Because the privacy piece raises a whole other question. And I think that gets into the larger crypto space of what's privacy look like for a Bitcoin. What's privacy look like? We're seeing this whole kind of argument with Zcash, right? And what's built in naturally to those two chains and ecosystem. So I think thinking about, you know, okay, fine, you've got that ownership, but how private is that ownership really? Yeah, we will look back at some of these conversations around self-custody and laugh in the same way that we look at Scott's YouTube page and some of his old, some of his old DJ videos, right? We'll do the same thing because think about it this way. It's so similar. Think about it. Think about it this way. Nobody holds stock certificates at their house or in a vault. Nobody, nobody, nobody. Why does nobody do that? One, it's custodial, you know, and insurance and all that stuff. But also, it's difficult to lend against those pieces of paper in your vault at home versus at your Morgan Stanley account.

Right. So instead of, you know, buy low and sell when you die, it's just buy low and just continue to lend against your assets. So I know, but didn't we get into this? That same thing is happening. It's going to be happening with Bitcoin and crypto. That same is happening right now. The beginning of it is happening. right now, in three to four years from now, people that are still doing the self-custody thing

are going to be 2% of the people that own Bitcoin. That's just my opinion. Yeah. Love it. I mean, it's what we built our business on to start. So obviously, you believe in Gemini. Yeah. Yeah, I think Tyler and Cameron have a better ability to craft, you know, layers of protection than much anyone, right? Like, you've yourself in the same boat as companies who are doing it for millions of people, it just doesn't make sense. And it has it. But this is, in my opinion, the pendulum that always swings back the other way. We as an industry have been blinded by our, you know, we drank our

own Kool-Aid, so to speak. You know, we've gotten smarter than everyone in the room. We act like we can't learn from traditional markets. Like even talking about private. see, Padgett, I think is insane. And I'll tell you why. Because in the world of AI, nothing is private anymore. If you interact in the world, you're out there. And so, you know, if we're going to spend all of our effort trying to, like, create these privacy chains, it's almost like a conspiratorial, like the government's how about we just focus on making money and living prosperous lives and supporting the, you know, government that we work under and spending our money? Like all of that we have, we're right on the precipice, in my opinion, of like, this golden age of finance. And we're worried about stuff

that really... I am torn about it. Like, right? I do deeply believe in privacy, but like at the same time, I'll be like, you know, self-clusy, not your keys, not your coins. I pick up my phone and give my face. We've opened my bank account. On the internet every day. There is nothing private about your life. Like, you can't parse out. And Bitcoin's not private. You know, that was a narrative that sold me early on in Bitcoin is like this privacy thing. Yeah, it's not private. It's an open public ledger. That's no different than going out into a public park and expecting privacy. It's literally a public ledger. You know,

it just doesn't these these tenants that we've, you know, grasp on, Wall Street's laughing at them. They're going, okay, well, y'all can worry about privacy while we literally built, we take the market cap from a couple trillion to 50 trillion. And, you know, and I think the mature audience, is ready for, okay, how can we systematically attach the rise of inflation? You know, Andrew said it best at the beginning of the podcast. It's like everything kind of goes up into the right in the Treadfi space. Why? Well, because the debt goes up into the right and we want to pay back our debt with cheaper dollars.

That's just the, that's the, you can talk about everything else, but that's the equation that matters in the whole world. Like, that's it. So we're going to keep printing. Things are going to go up in price. And the more scarce things are and the more useful they are. across markets, I would anticipate them all going up in price as well. Yeah, there's one thing that I don't want to talk about, but I'm going to do it anyways.

Hey, guys, the Clarity Act. 80% to 10%. Well, they're almost to where I've been for a year. 5%. And I'll be at 1% now if people wouldn't think I was crazy. I think a sucker's bet at 50%, Scott. Is that what you're telling me? You know what? There's a prediction market for that somewhere.

I tried to go on polymarket months ago. It was 78% or something. I was like, oh, free money. And then it was like, you're American. You can't use polymarket. Then I was like, and this is too much. And then your ADHD just forgot about the bed. I would probably have like $40, $48.4 now than I did back then. I had been able to get that $4 bet in. But I'm okay, hold on, hold on. Let's, let's like, I'm trying to rain you gentlemen in this morning, okay?

We're just shitting on everything here. Welcome to the jungle, Padget. This is Tuesday. Exactly. Don't worry. Don't worry. She can swing. But I think the fact that like we're continuously bringing up clarity, the fact that it's even

this discussion, right? Like to some extent, it's saturated in the industry, right? So regardless of what happens, regardless of those percentages, I think the moment is here that actually talking about it. Like no one, if I were to talk about Clarity Act for non-Crypto general public, right? For me, it's very much like crypto's not getting a free pass. It never has. We need garb rails in place trying to decide on it, right?

The fact that it's bought into the floor means something. Yeah, I will see. I agree. I mean, and I think the regulations. That doesn't mean that the regulators are going to go. Yeah. Yeah. I go back to the banks need it.

worse than anybody. Like crypto exchanges, we keep doing what they're doing. Defi has to be accounted for in the space. There's a lot to be ironed out. And if they want to iron it out, great. I think they should.

I think we need it. I think that markets hate uncertainty. And I think that, you know, do you know how many people came up to me after the cold card that have never owned Bitcoin and never used it? And they were like, heard Bitcoin got hacked.

And I'm like, No, and I didn't even bother. Okay, but at least they're talking about it. Like, no one even said anything before. Like, okay, so you're watching and made the channel. You even know what Bitcoin is? Like, yes, but it's, I guess all publicity is good, you know, good publicity. I think right at the end.

But I do think there's like that pendulum effect where we're going to have to wade further into this, you know, bog before we get out of it. Because most people I talk to about the clarity that have no idea about Bitcoin, They just go, oh, yeah, that's to try to keep our politicians from making billions of dollars on Big. That's what everyone says. That's what they think from the outside. And so we have some real warts that we have put on our own face. And we'd be careful not to cut our nose off to spite it.

I don't. That visual is not something I wanted to think about in terms of the clarity act. I don't want to talk about the clarity act. There you're better. Andrew's demeanor has completely shifted. He's absolutely checked out. Scott, new topic. Unexact.

Hey, hey, hey. Padgett, how much time do you have, by the way? I didn't even ask you. I'm good. We can keep going. Whatever you know, I'll leave at some point. I'll leave at some point when I've had enough. We can really ramp it up now.

She has a good one, guys. Invest 2100 Bitcoin in Super League to launch U.S. Bitcoin Treasury Platform Super Planet. Hey, you know what the United States needs? What are you doing? What is that headline? It's a Bitcoin treasury company, publicly listed. What is, what is, I mean, okay.

Are you excited? Super Planet. I mean, that's like Arch Public putting out a press release about our algos are now available in the UK. Like, of course they are. What are we, what are we talking? Why did we put out that press release? What are we talking about? And orange juice.

Those are the two new-named products in the Bitcoin, you know, treasury space. Yeah, yeah, they're going to be 100. Is it fair to just say, like, we could see it as a positive because it's just another company saying. You know what? You've turned it to a little bit of an annoying optimist badget, all right? You have to be. You have to be. I think it's a stupid headline, but.

Well, I think, listen, it's a slow news cycle. We clearly have nothing to talk about. so that gets an entire page. But it could be one tweet to say, oh, new company, public, going to buy Bitcoin. Like, cool. No one talks about it, but we have a ton of those already.

Yeah, it's just like somebody announcing that they're going to do a stack tomorrow. It's kind of real late. Thank you. A little too late. Exactly. I'm launching an internet company. I'm just, I'm still basking in the glow

of my DJ video joke, all right? I'm still back there about six. seven minutes ago. I'm just going to play videos of me DJing and mute me every time you try to talk. And Scott's reaction when I did, he's like, hey, what's my catching a phrase on this show?

What's the deal? Welcome to the Thunder Dome, thank you. Happy to be here, okay? I'm Tobin hood TBL surges 45% in August

I'll defer to Padgett on the optimism panel I'll talk it really negative on that particular headline I apologize so I don't nobody like when Robin Hood announced it something I have a lot

of old Tradfly buddies and people in that that industry that I'd still friends with that follow me on Twitter I somewhat mock Robin Hood. Like anytime they do something like that, I just say, like, who cares? And then they laugh because nobody in their world cares. Like nobody cares about that. Like the total, you know, amount of capital amount, you know, involved in that that you just showed is just like it's a rounding error, if that in kind of the real world.

So good for Robin Hood and things are, you know, they're doing some stuff. It's neat. But it feels no different than like Google's like X lab that they used to have. They're just throwing stuff at the wall. Throwing, throwing, throwing, throwing. And at some point, something will click and it'll turn into something meaningful. I think that's the nature of innovating, though. I think you continue to keep coming up with ideas and you see what the market's response is to them.

And you measure that against the money that's been spent. And that's business. And I don't ever, in back to Padgett's opt- optimism. Like I think this is a great sign. This is what we were talking about earlier. Like, you know, companies taking blockchain seriously. Because if you take blockchain seriously, you inevitably take the Bitcoin standard seriously. And that's what we prescribe to. That's what you're going to see kind of the natural flow into the tradfai space. And that's why people are going 24, you know, seven and or 23, five or whatever they, whatever they're going. But that's the Bitcoin standard essentially being applied to the tradify space. going to see that. And Robin Hood is a leader in that. Jim and I is a leader in that. Like, Bitwise is a leader in that. Any company that's out there going, you know what, what do people want and how do we give it to them and how do we compete with like base, for example? You know, I think that's a pretty noble, you know, endeavor, even if the success rate is low or the percentage

likelihood is low. Until they shut down the X lab at Google, which by the way, they have. But Anyways, go ahead, Patrick. Real free. The optimism is crazy. I'm in somewhat of agreement in that, okay, fine, that headline really doesn't matter. And I don't think the customer really cares that Robin Hood is building it or quite frankly, whatever internal team is building something. But I appreciate Tillman, you being somewhat on the same page in that for Gemini, right,

that's always been crypto needed, that built this exchange and custody infrastructure to start with, crypto hasn't just been like, okay, here's our final destination and we're going to stop there. You can buy sell and store your crypto here. Awesome. We're done. And we're going to stay in that lane. But it's actually just becoming a broader part of this like evolution into all the financial ecosystem. So we're leaning into predictions. We've launched stocks. We're making what we are calling a super app like a Robin Hood, like so many others out there to try to give access to all of this. I think the reality is that's what we should all want to be happening. Yeah.

I think it's good news. I like it. I agree that it's experimental. Yes. I'm also glad that people are experimenting and that there's some level of adoption of it. And it's not all black rock, Andrew. I know you know, you got a pink tank.

Yeah. They seem to win a lot. That's just, you know, where I'm at on that. They seem to win a lot. But Andrew, don't you think that like a winning platform or a winning service and arch public, all these things, is that ability to bring it all together? Yeah, no, I listen. That's a headline or not?

Listen, I had a bad cup of coffee this morning, okay? It's usually I'm the world. Kilman knows this. I'm a ridiculous optimist. Sound like it. It's just, you know, for many years, you know, crypto has poked everybody else in the eye. And it's kind of, you know, we're getting a little bit of that poke right. back and it's it's it's it's kind of well earned but at the same time though it needs to be it needs to be

the realization that so much of crypto is turning into again banking and traditional markets so that stuff that was invented four or five seven years ago and even stuff that's being done at robin hood and jemini right now will be parts of jp morgan banking of America, the NASDAQ, the NYSC, ICE, all of those things three to five years from now. And that shouldn't be downplayed. That should be celebrated. At the same time, meta planet starting super planet with more Bitcoin, that's ridiculous. Like that's not to be saying.

Don't celebrate. All right. Think about how many models, though, got fleshed out when we went from like media being on disk to media being streaming. You know, you had Napster, you had Al-Limewire, you had all these illegal services that were ahead of the curve that got coaled out of the equation. And then Apple Music and Spotify and all these other big ones came in to fill the gap with, you know, illegal framework that paid the artists and, you know,

accounted for downloads and all the things that we expect in modern Necropolis society. I think we're right at the beginning stages. Like what we see in the market in crypto right now or in finance rather is like the first five songs being added to the iTunes store. It's the beginning. It's the app store when there was nothing in it but like, you know, the five big apps. Now you can go in there and find 50,000 different apps for 50,000 different purposes. That's what's coming. We just are at the very beginning stages of it.

Everybody's catching heat on the daily in terms of, like, they expect you to go up in a straight line forever instead of realizing like growth is very cyclical. But, you know, it doesn't mean that you're not growing. It just means that you can't take every step forward. There's always going to be some steps backwards. A lot of change. A lot of change happening in crypto. A lot of change happening in traditional finance. It's a lot of change on both sides.

And it'll meet in the middle. and you'll have some cool stuff that we're all getting very comfortable with a few years from now. Scott, I think we can rename this episode to Infrastructure is the story. I think that's kind of a nice, good, tight title on what we've been talking about today.

I think, yes, okay, we've seen price headlines, scaramucci 100, whatever is going on, metaplanet, super planet, Robin Hood, Gemini, you name it, right? but I think generally speaking, which you see in any industry, the downtime is when you build. That's like entrepreneurship 101. Everybody said they like to build in a bare market. As long as you're like solvent and, you know, can pay your bills, it's nice to be able to build things without having to answer for the price or, you know,

deal with the FOMO and the customer service and all those things. I mean, I hear it over and over and over again from every project and every person in the industry. We love to build the bare market. It is really sad, though, that, you know, as we mature, that there's not going to be any more, you know, bit boy octagon fights in crypto. The fact that that's the way, you know, well, I mean, you know, Scott used to invite us to those things. He only wanted him on that. He was like, how do I fight?

He had his first comment was, oh, I want some of that. What I wouldn't give. to see Dylan in an octagon with a mouth guard and just raring to go, oh, man. Yeah, like face thing. Oh, yeah. You can actually give him the one from your gimp in the basement, Andrew. He can wear that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure, for sure.

You know what? Listen, the reference to the Gip, that was actually my father, all right? So you just be nice about it, okay? Be nice about the fact that my father's been in my basement for several months, all right? He watches this podcast. We have derailed. Off the deep end. Sorry.

Off the deep end. Hey, but you know what? You can get a Rolex. You have no idea how many people have signed up for this. Tens and tens and tens of thousands of things. You'd have to give away two Rolexes because I already claimed this one. Yeah. It is people love this stuff.

And more importantly, they get 50 grand worth of stuff from us that have to do with our public and our algorithmic products. You know, we've moved to equities and ETFs. And the numbers associated with equities and ETFs are just out of this world, like insane numbers. That it's strange to even talk about, to be honest, on a podcast. I will tell you this, volatility has moved to tradfriam markets. very meaningful way and has moved a little bit away from crypto. Like Bitcoin's been at 64 for like three months, right? And so the volatility has shifted like AMD. If you take it a look at a cash yield strategy with AMD and our strategies, it'll blow your mind. Like in the past year to date,

again, it's it's absolutely nuts. Like it's absolutely nuts. It's kind of like expect the unexpected. there's going to be a lot of volatility across all of the assets going forward because they're connected and money can flow very freely between all of the asset classes. And there's lots of leverage plays being applied to all of those asset classes. So when liquidity is low and leverage is applied, you see big price swings. And people have incentive to do that because it's an attractive nuisance. It can be something that you can make a lot of money on. So if you don't know how to manage volatility, that's where automation really steps in.

And most of our customers had a preconceived notion as to what automation looked like. It's very different. It's completely user-driven. We have integrated with Jim and I, a large number of our customers use Gemini as their custodian capital QC. I think that the vast majority of what we've done in our space is trying to, trying to unwind what other people have done. And so come, you know, join us free. That's why we've offered our product completely free to use.

If you open up a Gemini account, you download our software, plug into our team. We'll get you up in trading very quickly and you'll see the benefits of it, you know, instantaneously. Love it. Patrick, you're supposed to jump. Andrew's attitude there shifted very positively when we go. No, Padgett, you're supposed to jump in and say Archpublic is awesome. Just wait. I think Arch Public is awesome. But let me tell you why. I think it's because you guys have

actually given the opportunity with us, I will say, add Gemini in there to not just have to decide, hey, am I going to invest in crypto or should I invest in this other asset class? This now movement into the ETF piece and equities, right? You can invest in anything. We're removing or at least trying to and building towards removing the silos of all these different asset classes. I want to invest. Alternative assets, equities, ETS, whatever they are, right? Now you can do so in all of these places, whether it's through an ALGO like ArchPublic or taking an initiative yourself, right? So completely positive, always here to back it up and happy to be a part of it. I think we have seen the numbers exactly of you, as you mentioned. It's obvious. Everyone agrees. Thank you, Patchett. I appreciate it. You're welcome. Even though you had to be prompted. I really do appreciate it. I will tell you one last thing to add being able to take volatility from you know let's just call it real world type of assets like advanced micro devices or invidia or Tesla and take the cash yield that's generated with that and then move it right into Bitcoin on Gemini on tasty trade on other platforms. Man people are comfortable with that. People are very, very, very comfortable with assets that.

that they trust and understand as opposed to, you know, we've been doing it for a while on all sorts of platforms where you're like, hey, let's take Suey in volatility. And they're like, no, I'm not, okay, I can try that for a while. But what if Suey takes a dump, which from time to time crypto assets do? Traditional assets, you know, their version of going down meaningfully is very, very different in crypto. So using yield, using those assets to generate volatility, which then you can put into Bitcoin when it's sitting here at the quote unquote lows. Really, really cool stuff, a circular ecosystem being able to use with our tools. Yeah, diversification is key. And when there's more volatility injected in markets, it becomes that diversification becomes a burden to manage.

And so if you want to harvest volatility, if you want to take advantage of what Paget was talking about in terms of like multiple asset classes on the same platform. If you look at like the opportunities that present itself around inversely proportionate moves across asset classes and the management of that against the volatility, there's just extraordinary opportunity. So a lot of lot said there, but reach out to us. We'd love to show you. It is strange that Paget only, you know, joins us about twice a year. Can anybody put their finger on it? Does anybody have any idea why?

Invite me more often. I'm happy to participate. We need the optimistic female energy in this room. Someone's got to rein you in. So just let me know. I've got a busy schedule. It's not as flexible here. Andrew's off the rails.

If Scott says I'm off the rails, I'm truly off the rails. That is true. Archpublic giveaway.com. It's in the description. And you too can have a share in my watch. tokenize it and we can all buy him. It shows better. Padgett, I do have to say it's like you get to do the one of the boys thing.

Like when we actually know the fourth person in person, it, you know. It's more fun. It's off the rails and more themselves. If we put like random guy from Fidelity in that spot, all of a sudden, Andrews. Bus kill. Total bus kill. We need a patagonia best on.

I think we need Wolf of all seats. That one right here. This is my best right here. We got to get you a job. Gemini vest, Andrew. I have it. I wore it like a week ago. I wore it a week ago.

It's been worn on this podcast today. I hope that's as many as times as you come on the show. It is weird. It is weird that I wore my Gemini best in August. That's another. I walked up by this morning in Florida. It was like, feels like 107. And it was like 7.30 a.m.

But yeah, get the puppy vest going. Yeah, wear that vest. No problem. Okay. All right. All right. We hit 10 o'clock, Paget, unlike the three of us actually has a job. Well, I'm going to go let her attend to that.

Thank you. Thank you. Always a pleasure. Appreciate it. And happy to join whenever needed. Bye, guys. Thank you. Thank you, everyone.

See you later. Bye, Andrew. Ready to take your investing knowledge to pro-level? This is Fidelity Connects, your daily edge in the markets. Get deep insights on real-time market topics that may impact your investment portfew. Listen to Fidelity Connects on Spotify today and power your next move tomorrow.