The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Bull Market Is Coming | Haseeb Qureshi

Episode Date: September 24, 2023

Haseeb Qureshi is among the leading minds in the crypto world. Our second meeting took place in Singapore during Token2049. Tune in to hear Haseeb's insights on the future trajectory of crypto, where ...he explores dominant narratives and shares where he's placing his investments. ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $10,000! 👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/ ►►NORD VPN GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #Token2049 0:00 Intro 1:06 Asia vs US 7:00 Narratives in crypto 10:40 Friend.tech 16:10 Where Haseeb invests 18:00 Super chains 23:00 More energy is coming to crypto The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 It's like the game starts as soon as you enter. I have gotten a lot of shit since SPF turned out to be a gigantic fraud. That anytime something really starts working, it's a surprise. Sam is an American, right? He was a celebrity in America. It's easy to blame a lot of it on Sam. Wait, you also are an effective altruist, right? So you get him soiling everything you're involved in.
Starting point is 00:00:22 Okay, we could go there if you'd like to go there. The mood surrounding crypto in the United States is decidedly depressing. People are fearful of regulators. They're afraid of what will happen with legislation. But you go to Asia and it's completely different. I sat down with my favorite thinker in crypto, Hasib Qureshi,
Starting point is 00:00:38 live on the floor of Token 2049 in Singapore, discussed why the mood is so good in Asia and what's coming for crypto. If you want to get excited and get a little FOMO again, this is a conversation for you. You haven't done the trip yet, right? No, no, I'm here at the beginning, first leg of the trip. What's your general feeling?
Starting point is 00:01:03 You're on the West Coast of the United States. Yeah. West Coast is sleepy. Things are kind of bad right now. Yeah. West Coast, sleepy, down bad. I mean, look, here, there are more people here than at East Denver. If this were in...
Starting point is 00:01:17 Not multiples. I heard that it's like between 10,000 and 15,000 here. Yeah. So, a lot of people here. Yeah. Like, you can tell Asia is, is like there's a lot more energy here than there is in the US. Same thing I heard from people at Korea Blockchain Week. I wasn't there, but I heard a lot of energy, a lot of excitement. So there's just a big asymmetry
Starting point is 00:01:35 between how people in the US are feeling and how people internationally, especially in Asia are feeling. It's crazy because last year I went to Mainnet New York and nothing, I love Masari, I love RISE, it was depressing. It was really like we were first starting to see the hints of this regulatory crackdown and what's happening. And then I flew directly here for this and it was like Crypto-palooza, Cryptocella, whatever you want to call it.
Starting point is 00:02:01 I was like, wow, I'm re-inspired. I feel it. And it's 10 times this year. Right. This is twice as big as it was last year and everything in the United States is a third the size that it was. Is that just because of regulation?
Starting point is 00:02:14 It's not just because of regulation. Regulation is a part of it. But I think a lot of it is that in the US, the FTX story is really, really kind of looms over everything in crypto. It's hard to think about crypto and not think about SPF. And in Asia, the reality was that obviously Asia experienced SPF and experienced the collapse of FTX. But here, the press cycle, it was kind of like a two, three week story. It's like, oh, some American guy sold a bunch of money. Isn't that crazy? Let's move on.
Starting point is 00:02:44 It's kind of like in America, like Luckin Coffee. It was this big fraud in China. They were cooking their books, basically. It was a story for a few days, and then we moved on. In China, it was a story that gripped the country for months. The same thing is, I think, kind of true for the rest of the world and SPF. Sam is an American. He was a celebrity in America. He was not a celebrity
Starting point is 00:03:06 in Singapore. He was not a celebrity in Korea or Japan or whatever. And so those countries just kind of moved on. They're like, hey, the Web3 story is kind of bigger than what's happening in some exchange in America. So I think that's a lot of the reason why you don't see the same malaise in Asia as you do in the U.S. The other thing, like in absolute terms, like if you look at crypto prices, right, everybody in America says we're in a bear market. In Asia, people are like, what are you talking about? How are we in a bear market? Like prices are up like 80% this year. Like if you held Bitcoin, Bitcoin is worth more now than it was at the time that FTX collapsed. Right.
Starting point is 00:03:46 Which, like, if you had told me at that time, like, if you rewind the clock back to a year ago, and you had told me that in the next year, okay, the third largest exchange in the world is going to turn out to be a gigantic fraud, one of the biggest frauds in American corporate history. There's going to be, like, congressional investigations into what happens with this guy. The entire executive branch is going to bang down on crypto. The SEC is going to declare every single token as security.
Starting point is 00:04:12 They're going to sue Coinbase and Binance. There's going to be a financial crisis. Banks are going to collapse, which is going to be blamed on crypto. And all of that, interest rates are going to go up to 5% and they're not going to move. If you told me all of that. I would have assumed Bitcoin at 5 to 10, ETH at like, you know, 500.
Starting point is 00:04:31 But here we are, Bitcoin at 26K, Ether at 1600. It's like, yeah, this industry is like, clearly people know that this stuff is not going away. I think the story of the last year, which you just sort of told, was Bitcoin's drop in November and trading in January above the FTX. Exactly. Above pre-FTX. Exactly.
Starting point is 00:04:53 Above pre-FTX. Two months. Exactly. To retrace that entire thing. Exactly. The other thing I hear is we can blame Sam for literally everything. I like to blame Sam for a lot of it. A lot of it.
Starting point is 00:05:01 I wake up in the morning and I'm like, my kids, they're being so difficult today. Sam! I sometimes am there with you. I'm sometimes there with you. The reality is that a lot of this, it's easy to blame a lot of it on Sam. Wait, you also are an effective altruist, right? So you get him soiling everything you're involved in. Look, I... Okay, we can go there if you'd like to go there.
Starting point is 00:05:23 I have gotten a lot of shit since SPF turned out to be a gigantic fraud by being an effective altruist. I am by nature a very stubborn person. And so a bunch of people are like, why are you keeping that in your profile? Can you take it off your Twitter handle? I'm like, no, fuck you. Like, look, you don't say like, well, because like some bishop turned out to be like stealing money. Catholicism is a fraud.
Starting point is 00:05:49 It's like, no, that's not how it works, man. Like, effective altruism is a philosophy. It's not an organization. So, yeah, Sam's an asshole. But like, you know, you don't disprove an argument by saying, well, some guy did something bad. What about it? Well, fuck that guy. You know, like that's the takeaway.
Starting point is 00:06:03 So anyway, so I'm an effective alt of all truths that's true yeah that said um i i've heard a lot more about what happened to crypto than what happened to yeah good so you know all right so then we know what happened to crypto yes let's talk about what's going to happen to crypto yeah obviously we have endless narratives for what's going to happen always you and i had an amazing conversation where you, I think I told you that Michael Saylor had said that Bitcoin was like Manhattan. Yeah. And you quickly refuted that and said Ethereum was Manhattan
Starting point is 00:06:33 and Solana was Denver. And I don't know who was, you know, Omaha, Detroit, Flint, Michigan. I don't remember who that was. But that very idea. But since then, I think we've seen the proliferation of layer twos as a huge narrative and things have changed a lot. So now do you think that we still have that similar narrative for it? Or do you think that we're now in a place where everything's there? We can scale. Because at that time we were talking
Starting point is 00:06:58 about, can we scale the mass adoption? Is it possible? We've never gotten the people to test that. But now I feel like we could. Yes. I think you're exactly right. We have this massive proliferation of block space. And in the analogy that I give about different kinds of block space, I say the L1s are like cities. L2s are like skyscrapers. They allow you to scale vertically on top of a city that already exists. And investing in skyscraper technology is great. You know, it allows you to basically stay on Ethereum land with Ethereum norms and Ethereum, you know, taxation and all that stuff. But you can kind of adopt this stuff in an OP stack roll up that kind of scales vertically. It's nice.
Starting point is 00:07:39 The reality is that a lot of the affordances around layer twos and the multi-chain interaction are still pretty shitty. It's like a skyscraper from the 1940s where the elevator doesn't quite work and sometimes you got to take the stairs all the way. Slumlord. Yeah, exactly. It's janky, right? It's janky.
Starting point is 00:07:57 So I still think there's some work to do to integrate everything, make it smooth, make it painless. But I think you're more or less right that the problem right now is not that we don't have enough block space. We basically have gotten to the point where we have enough block space, right? And you can see that because of the fact that fees are low. If fees are low, that means, hey, we got enough block space,
Starting point is 00:08:16 anybody can move in. It's like saying, look, you could say there's not enough room in Manhattan, but if the rents go way down, so you can get a one bedroom apartment for 300 bucks a month, then like, yeah, look, the problem is not the lack of space, right? So I think the bigger thing right now
Starting point is 00:08:31 is figuring out great applications that are gonna drive people on chain. That's really the bigger question than just the question of, hey, how do we get more block space? There is a lot of work to be done to integrate that block space better. So like, okay, we've got skyscrapers. They're shitty skyscrapers.
Starting point is 00:08:46 But we don't need to yet. We don't need to yet, right? That's not the binding constraint right now. That's the way I would put it. So, what's going to be built that's going to actually create demand for that block space? It's a good question. Look, I'm a VC. People often look to VCs and assume.
Starting point is 00:09:01 So, you should have the best answer. No, no, no, no. People often look at VCs and assume that they know what the answer is. And any VC who thinks they know what the answer is, is a terrible investor. But you should at least know what other people think might be the answer because they're presenting it to you. Yes, yes. That I do know. And, you know, most of it, obviously, I haven't invested in because I don't think it's the answer. The reality is that the one that we know about crypto is that anytime something really starts working, it's a surprise.
Starting point is 00:09:25 Literally. Look at Frentech, right? Frentech, surprise, right? Basically, it kind of looked like BitCloud, which was a project that basically wasn't able to achieve that kind of runaway growth. Frentech, very slight permutation on the core ideas, suddenly takes off like crazy, right? Same thing that you saw with NFTs. NFTs kind of came out of nowhere, right? Like, I mean, yeah, there was some CryptoKitty stuff
Starting point is 00:09:46 that sort of died off. Dude it was zero to Saturday Night Live in like two months. Exactly, exactly. And so this I think is a common feature that you see in applications that really take off is that they're not predictable in advance, right? The important thing is that you have enough
Starting point is 00:10:00 permissionless innovation such that founders with ideas can very cheaply try things. Right? That's a beautiful thing you see with something like FriendTech. It's very cheap to just like create progressive web app, works in mobile, get it, start trading, like something like Privy to get your wallet in there. I mean, look, it's a janky piece of shit. But that's the thing. I'm so much more bullish on an app that the user experience is like really crappy and
Starting point is 00:10:24 people are still using it. Right. Because you know the user experience is like really crappy and people are still using it right because they you know the user experience exactly look at look at openc in 2021 but like now at the beginning frentech yeah like you guys we were gonna do a twitter spaces on it ah and mario and rand said you need to sign up for frentech because i was outright on it okay now you need to sign up have a little bit of like experience yeah yeah i sign up and all of a sudden i see the bots go crazy i thought i could bit of experience. I sign up and all of a sudden I see the bots go crazy. I thought I could just sign up and check it out and all of a sudden I'm for sale.
Starting point is 00:10:49 So I was like, okay, that's crazy. Like, have I secured time? It's scary Gensler now. It's gonna come after me for an unregistered security of myself. Hey, they're keys now, they're keys. No shares, no shares. So I didn't have the answer to any of those questions.
Starting point is 00:11:03 And then UX UI was so bad that I was still dismissive. I said, this is trash. It's going to zero. And then you saw TV all like this. Then I was proved massively wrong. Absolutely skyrocketed. Now I'm actually in there. I'm not trying.
Starting point is 00:11:17 Now I feel some responsibility. Yeah, you feel the feedback loop. That's the thing. It's like the game starts as soon as you enter. If you think about something like a lot of social media platforms, one of the places where they lose a lot of people is you come on the platform and it's kind of like, okay, now post a video of yourself. And it's like, I don't want to, I don't want to do it. No, nevermind. I'm good. Right. The great thing about FriendTech and the thing that they really figured
Starting point is 00:11:40 out is you show up and the game has already started. You're for sale. You're for sale, right? You're for sale. Like it or not, you're for sale. Somebody is going to buy you because they're going to front run other people who are going to buy you. The UX is very much already throwing you into the deep end the moment you come in. It's like a video game
Starting point is 00:11:57 and they don't start with a tutorial of like, oh, here's how you move. They start and already you're fighting the final boss. It's like, okay, that is how you make a good game so i'm wrong why is that wrong no i'm saying i'm wrong oh you were wrong oh yeah you were wrong so you think that i mean you're fighting but i don't know if it lasts or do you think that this is yet another one of those first iteration of something that will be bigger here's what i'll say here's what i'll say i think friend check is figured out there's a there there there is something like this that ought to exist okay part of the way that i
Starting point is 00:12:30 analogize friend tech is it's like a twitter but your audience is smaller than dunbar's number right basically your audience is like 50 people instead of 500 000 people right and that is a very different kind of game but it's so fun because the scale of those people, like, they're willing to spend the kind of money to interact with you that 500,000 people would be willing to spend to interact with you, right? When you write a tweet that has 500,000 impressions, what is
Starting point is 00:12:56 that worth? Like, 50 bucks? I don't know. 20 bucks? 50 cents? I don't know. 50 cents? I have no idea. I got $114 in my first... Okay, there you go. For crypto people, none of it's worth anything. There you go, yeah, exactly. Somebody wants to advertise on there. Exactly, there you go.
Starting point is 00:13:08 But yeah, I get the idea. A massively viral tweet maybe is worth $10, $20, $30. Exactly, exactly. So it's really, in a way, like price discrimination. So it's that people who are willing to pay the most show up in a private Twitter for you. And all of a sudden, now you're really getting paid to be a content creator. You're getting real-time feedback.'s it's very different it's a
Starting point is 00:13:27 very different vision of what social media can be and it works this mechanically they've set it up in a way to be fun real-time fast feedback now is it ever gonna take over the world no way no way Twitter is mass market mass market is like basically our poo of the average user on Twitter is like a dollar like per year a dollar per year. A dollar per year. Right.
Starting point is 00:13:49 Whereas the ARPU of somebody in your chat room, if they buy your key, it might be a few hundred bucks. Yeah. Right. Or a thousand bucks. The only problem is then I feel like they for that one time entry fee, they expect access to you indefinitely. That's right.
Starting point is 00:14:01 That's right. So I guess they can just sell you. They can sell you. Right. So it's like a floating price. So there's no there's no firm commitment from you to do anything, right? It's their choice whether they want to see absolutely their choice. They can buy they can sell about this always Yeah, I wonder what's gonna be built on top of friend tech good good question I don't know but I've already seen that there's like, you can chart and see the price action. I mean, it feels like everything that's being built in crypto will just be built on top of Frontech like it's another layer.
Starting point is 00:14:32 It's very possible. I think this idea of having these open social platforms that are not... Here's the thing I don't like about crypto. A lot of people in crypto talk a big game about displacing Facebook or Instagram or YouTube. I'm like, no, that's not where you're going to win. Where you're going to win is by creating something different that those people can't do, doing something that benefits from natively interacting with money and value, from being decentralized and open.
Starting point is 00:14:57 But you're never going to win on scale, right? Web2 wins on scale. Also, even if you attempt something that they theoretically could do, they're just going to steal it. Yes, exactly. Instagram didn't just magically get stories. Yes. I mean, we've seen the death of all these platforms that Facebook basically just replicates whatever you've done with their much larger audience and builds it. That's right.
Starting point is 00:15:18 So you can't do that anyways. No, no. But it's interesting. I wonder how big a friend tech then could scale, though. Can you have 10,000 people holding your keys and then it's interesting. I wonder how big a friend tech then could scale though. Can you can it be can you have 10,000 people holding your keys? And then it's not. I think if you're a celebrity, you can't if you're a celebrity, you can't. I mean, right now, friend tech is crypto celebrities, right?
Starting point is 00:15:34 You get a real celebrity on there, you know, you get like a Rihanna and I can absolutely believe there's more than 10,000 people willing to hold their key. Now, those keys might get really expensive. So imagine Rihanna is a fan club and the entrance price is $20,000, $50,000, right? Would Rihanna be willing to do that? I mean, look, it's better than doing concerts. Yeah. Especially because she's not in there. It's her team. She doesn't have to show up at all. But she doesn't have to do anything. So, I mean, with that in mind, you said you
Starting point is 00:16:02 don't have the answer. I don't have the answer. You're not investing in most of this stuff. What are you actually, how are you deploying? Are we still in the let's just do infrastructure because it's safe sort of deployment? Or is there stuff further on the risk curve that does interest you? I mean, we're looking at everything. I would say that right now, the themes that I think are most interesting to me at the moment,
Starting point is 00:16:24 or I think that are most obvious. So one, real-world assets, I think is obvious, right? I mean, now it's got an acronym. It's RWA. I mean, it's had that acronym for like five years. But now, everywhere I look, RWA. I know, I know. It's like in the last month. Once it goes in the BlackRock annual investor letter,
Starting point is 00:16:39 okay, RWA. It's here to stay. I think we're also looking a lot at the institutionalization of the sort of exchange stack. So this is another aftermath of FTX type thing, is that post-FTX, no longer do institutions want to be customing their assets on the exchange, right? No longer do people want to have everything run by the same party. And forever, basically, exchanges have been entirely verticalized. Exchange, lending, trading, clearing, everything. Maybe we make it count for the whole thing. Exactly. Now, we're really moving past that. And all these exchanges are demanding a very
Starting point is 00:17:18 different type of institutional friendly stack for trading. That's a big story that we're paying attention to, is how the market's going to shift.'s a big story that we're paying attention to is how the market's gonna shift. And then after that, we're just looking a lot at the L2 stack. It seems very clear L2s are taking over the world. It's not that I think L1s are gonna go away, but that L2s are really gaining in dominance
Starting point is 00:17:37 and the future of Ethereum is entirely gonna be driven by L2s. Okay, so obviously Coinbase launched Base. That's right, where Frentech lives. Where Frentech lives is seemingly the flavor of the month for Layer 2s, but it's tokenless. Now, we know that Coinbase wasn't going to mess with releasing an unregistered security token, so it makes sense for them. But does that take any of the shine off of other Layer 2s that do have tokens, when now you can see that you can operate without one? Why do we need tokens for everything?
Starting point is 00:18:08 Layer ones do. Yes, so if you look at what BASE is actually doing, right? So BASE partnered with the Optimism Collective and essentially what they did is they're joining the Super Chain. What is Super Chain? Super Chain is basically you hand the governance and the operations of your chain to the Optimism Coll in exchange the optimism collective takes a fee right so they
Starting point is 00:18:30 take uh what is it three percent fifty percent something or whatever there's some some deal basically that you sign with optimism collective um and in that world now optimism is the way you're decentralized right they sort of take of take the decentralization for you. So in this world, yes, you don't need a token, but where is the remainder of that, you know, 15%, 85%, oh, sorry, the 85% of the revenue and or 97 or whatever it is of the profit, it goes to Coinbase, the company, right?
Starting point is 00:18:59 So they're taking most of the sequencer revenue slash profits. In the world where you have a token, well, if it's decentralized on both sides, who gets that revenue and profit? Presumably, it's the token holders, right? And the token holders can also decide, do you want to stay in the super chain or do you want to exit and go on your own, right? That question is always available to you one way or another as an L2. You're not locked into the super chain forever. But in order to be able to make that decision you need some outer form of governance in the case of coin base it's coin based the company right in the case of an l2 that originally has its own token
Starting point is 00:19:32 like so for example um seller recently announced that they're turning into an l2 right well you can imagine seller might decide to join the super chain uh because they're you know they're exploring the op stack right now but i don't as far as i, they haven't decided whether or not superchain, no superchain, whatever. If they do go to the superchain, they can also decide to get out. And Celo token is going to continue to have that governance role. So at the end of the day, there's always a role because there's always decisions to be made.
Starting point is 00:19:58 Governance doesn't end with, OK, we're an L2. This is one thing that John Charbonneau at DBA has been talking about over and over and over again is that roll up as like, oh, it's just a wrap over L1. It's a simplification. There's still a lot of questions and a lot of moving parts that go into an L2. In the same way, it's like, okay, we have a skyscraper in Manhattan. So we're in Manhattan. It's like, now, what does your skyscraper do? How does it work? Where's the HOA or whatever it's called? What's management?
Starting point is 00:20:28 What are the rules? There's a lot of details that go into it. Yeah. Okay, so Coinbase, obviously, we just talked about, makes 85% of the fees. A lot of exchanges are sort of disrupting their own model. Centralized exchanges clearly are not going to be the entire future of crypto.
Starting point is 00:20:45 OKEx has their Web3 wallet. It's a way that Americans can actually interact with it without having access to the centralized exchange. Coinbase has base. Do you think that something like base can be a bigger revenue model for Coinbase than their centralized exchange? That's a tough question. I mean, at the moment, clearly it's a very small portion of the revenue, right? If you annualize their sequencer fees, you know, it's like, I don't remember the number, but it's very small for Coinbase. Small business like that. That said, the interesting thing about sequencer fees is that basically in times of congestion, 100% of the fees basically go to the sequencer, right? So it's not like an Ethereum where some portion of the fees get burned. 100%, and like, oh, this portion of the fees goes to the validators 100 goes to sequencers right so every fee that's ever gets paid goes to coin mix so that is an interesting business model when congestion goes up now when does congestion go up in a bull market right almost all the fees get
Starting point is 00:21:41 made in a bull market so right now we kind of don't really have a good sense yet of how well this thing monetizes so i i would say let's reserve judgment um in a boat market l1s or l2s or block space they're kind of an amazing business model yeah they they make a lot of money yeah when you add to that me yeah when you launch an nft product and a gas fee is a thousand dollars exactly exactly it's a pretty. It's a pretty good line of work. So I think in that sense, we've yet to see how it might fit into Coinbase's broader revenue portfolio. But to be clear,
Starting point is 00:22:14 I don't think centralizing exchanges are going away. Yeah, me either. But do you think it's a wise model for them to at least explore disrupting themselves, knowing that there could be a massive downtick, regulation aside, in centralized, I mean, there's just a lack of trust in centralized exchanges. Uniswap does more volume than Coinbase. Right. So, I mean, they have to in some ways start to participate. Yes, I completely agree with that. Completely agree.
Starting point is 00:22:39 When do you think with your investments now, when do you think you're going to start seeing the benefit of it? Is this a one-year raging bull market, four-year cycle? Is it five years? Is it seven? Is it 10? I was joking. I was joking with Gaurav.
Starting point is 00:22:53 I was talking before. He was like, you know, we're looking at three years, five years, seven years. And he gave some example. I was like, everything that you invested in for seven years, three years ago, is literally trash. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:23:01 And it's not coming back in seven years. Right. Right. So. Look, crypto is hard to predict it's really hard to predict i would guess that we're going to see a lot more energy in the market by late next year one year the reason why i predict that a few things one interest rates are going to start to decline um and in a way that i think we can kind of see the trend line um second u.s elections we're going to start to decline and in a way that I think we can kind of see the trend line.
Starting point is 00:23:26 Second, U.S. elections. We're going to see turnover and basically the administration's attitude towards crypto. And third, and this is kind of the 100 IQ, but probably still maybe the most important factor, is that people just start forgetting about FTX. Yeah, it's literally like just the more time we put between it. Exactly, just more distance in the rearview mirror. I was talking to Caitlin Long and she made the point that not only do we have the U.S. election, but if we have the same halving cycle, like Bitcoin will be literally starting to boom within two months of the actual election. I do not. I don't believe it when I'm here for it. I think it's complete astrology. I think it's bullshit.
Starting point is 00:24:02 Absolutely bullshit. The halving. Yes. The halving have anything to do with prices. Bullshit. Total bullshit. I think it's bullshit. Absolutely bullshit. The having. Yes, the having. Have anything to do with prices. Bullshit. Total bullshit. I like it. I mean, look. Markets are forward-looking.
Starting point is 00:24:10 Okay? Markets are forward-looking. Bitcoin, it's not 2008. It's not 2012. This is 2023. Okay? The reason why Bitcoin is valuable is because we know that it's going to be scarce.
Starting point is 00:24:23 We know that it's going to have. Right? And we know exactly when it's going to have. Right. And we know exactly when it's going to have. And if you look, if you're trying to evaluate this on flows, minor flows in Bitcoin are tiny. Right. They're small now because we've already halved a bunch of times. So in aggregate, it doesn't show up in flows. It's negligible in flows. And in terms of the actual, well, it's a narrative. It gets you in the press. I mean, at this point, the rest of the world does not care about the habit. You know, it's not going to it gets you in the press i mean at this point the rest of the world does not care about the happening you know it's not going to get you back in the press it's not an important story like the important stories are the etf the election like these things really
Starting point is 00:24:54 really matter you know but the happening i i'm i'm very skeptical that it has any important effect on bitcoin prices but the good news is if you're right about a year from now prices being up they'll go up and you'll be getting to hear about the Havening for another five years. I know, exactly right. They will absolutely all get ascribed to the Havening. All right, so next year we're going to do this again and talk about the Havening. I look forward to that. We've got a speech to go out.
Starting point is 00:25:14 Absolutely. Let's go.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.