The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Chaos & Insane Swings – Where Is Crypto Headed Next?!

Episode Date: March 5, 2025

►► Sponsored by Aptos, check it out here: https://aptosfoundation.org/ What's happening in crypto and global macro? Bitcoin's wild volatility is back, and the markets are going crazy. I'm joined by top macro and Bitcoin expert Noelle Acheson to break it all down for you! Noelle Acheson: https://x.com/NoelleInMadrid Join Crypto Is Macro Newsletter now: https://www.cryptoismacro.com Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►►🔥 LBANK Exchange - No KYC Required! Claim up to 50% trading bonus! Join today & get rewarded! Start trading to claim up to 50% in trading bonuses!! 👉https://www.lbank.com/activity/ScottMelker-Cashback?icode=4M3HD  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://archpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trump The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

It was the best of times it was the worst of times it was the best of times it was the worst of times of course I'm describing Bitcoin and crypto price action over the past four days where we've had some of literally the best and worst days in the history of Bitcoin back to back to back going as high as 95 or 96,000 all the way back down into the low 80,000 after visiting 78,000 and 92,000. What is going on? The reality in my mind is that President Trump now controls the price action of this market and everything else. But there are obviously other major factors contributing. And when there's

other major factors contributing, we call in Noel Achtin to help us unpack all of it. Of course, Christopher inks on the back end with some charts. It's gonna be a great show today, guys. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel, hit that like button and check out Aptos. We'll tell you a little more about later, of course.

But right now, we need to talk about the market. Bitcoin trading right back here at 89,457 was up to around 91,000 this morning. I go to bed at 80, I wake up at 90 or vice versa on any given day. Been here a long time, Noel. This is some pretty wild volatility even for crypto right now. The narrative is flip-flopping so much. We've got the crypto reserves, then we've got the macro uncertainty,

and then we've got the regulation softening, and then we've got the tariffs. I'm a firm believer, Scott, in humans' ability to adapt. It is what has enabled us to survive over the millennia. We can adapt to anything, but adapting so fast, to things changing so fast is utterly exhausting. I don't know about you. Yeah, the things that haven't really adapted is the altcoin market.

Right? So I mean, obviously we have our big bumps and we've had winners here and there, but it's been pretty much just sustained pain in the altcoin world for years at this point, honestly. Like I said, there's been some winners, of course, but across the board, it's been pretty ugly. And I think that's largely because of how fast this new cycle is happening. There's never enough time to absorb any bullishness before something else happens.

Yeah. And the you move to the safe and be a guild air quotes there the safe assets of Bitcoin, ETH and the other higher cap ones because in the end when you want to be able to get out, you want to know you can get out pretty fast. That's what we're seeing with the uncertainty. The Bitcoin dominance metric is something I keep an eye on because it is very reflective of where we are in the cycle and has just been climbing,

which means that this cycle is just getting started. Uncertainty is still way too high to start heading further out in the risk curve. Absolutely, and clearly the focus is on Bitcoin across the board, right? We've had the meme coin casino doing what the meme coin casino does,

but there hasn't been much trickle down beyond the institutional involvement in Bitcoin. And if people are wondering why we jumped above 90,000, probably today, well, it's this news. Howard Lutnick this morning saying Bitcoin is going to have a massive Trump reserve plan specific to Bitcoin that will be announced at the crypto roundtable at the White House on Friday. This was some pretty eye opening stuff because we just had Trump on truth social on Sunday saying XRP Cardano Solana. Oh, and by the way, also

Bitcoin and Ethereum. But luck now kind of going back the other way, probably because of all the pushback from donors and Bitcoin maximalists, but basically saying here's his quote. So Bitcoin is one thing. And then the other currencies the other crypto tokens I think will be treated differently, positively, but differently. So, what does that even mean? The idea of a strategic Bitcoin reserve again. I mean, what does that even mean, positively, but differently? I'm going to go out on a limb here, and with huge respect to Commerce Secretary Lutnick, I don't think he gets to decide this,

and I'm also doubting that at this stage he's speaking for the entire presidential working group on this. So again, what does that even mean differently? Any kind of strategic reserve, if it involves spending federal funds, will have to go through Congress. So even if the working group gets consensus, which we all know is going to be pretty unlikely, even then trying to get Congress to agree is going to be a whole different issue. That said, welcome news for Bitcoin is obviously welcome news for Bitcoin. But what is significant is the shift after President Trump's truth social post on Sunday, which was weird. And the fact that it didn't mention Bitcoin, and he

strongly suggests that it wasn't run by anyone before he put it out there. I was fully expecting to see David Sachs walk it back on Monday. No, he came out and told the line on Sunday saying, yes, we're definitely going to be looking at this. But I think it's significant that we haven't seen confirmation of acceptance of the invitation to the crypto summit on Friday from either Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse or Cardano co-founder Charles Hoskinson. Maybe, maybe they haven't been invited or maybe we just it's early it's only Wednesday right so again time means nothing I've no idea exactly maybe it's coming but it's strange that we haven't heard from either if so that would be a pretty

masterful stroke from David Sacks, not contradicting his boss in public, but subliminally or subtly messaging that this was not an approved message. Yeah, I haven't even dug into the guest list as far as you have, obviously, but those are notably missing. We have the Bryan Armstrongs of the world, quite a few VCs, people from major exchanges. I even saw CZ on the list, which I have not confirmed, but found a bit surprising. Yeah, I haven't seen that one. I haven't seen that. But there were some surprising and I think a very encouraging array of participants. You have founders of wallets that are not exactly high profile necessarily. You also do have some of the big exchanges, as you say, you've got some of the investors.

It looks encouraging so far, but a couple of names are missing. Yeah. So since we are on Lutnick at the moment, he was making a lot of comments this morning. And obviously being in commerce, he is the tariff guy, right? So either he deeply believes in these things, or he's also towing the line for what Trump says, but it seems they're all over the map right now with the tariffs, right? Uh, we were on and off. We were on with Canada and Mexico.

We were off with Canada and Mexico. We were back on now this morning, walking back, some of it saying there could be some, some concessions looking for some areas where they may have exemptions for Canada as Canada pushes back very hard. I don't know if people saw the videos of them taking a billion dollars worth of American bourbon off the shelves in Ontario. They've already imported. I mean, that they've already imported. What are they going to do with that? Send it back? Exactly. But, you know, either way, Canada definitely,

at least in some areas, playing tough and saying that this will turn into a trade war. I mean, what do you make of all the tariff uncertainty right now? It already is a trade war and arguably it's a very, very bad trade war. It's a trade war because this one is broad. The last round of tariffs in Trump won administration that was steep and harsh, but targeted. This is broad, which leaves even allies uncertain as to what they can account on. And this is after the great globalization push of offshoring and then friend-shoring. Do you remember how everyone not that long ago was suddenly not importing from China,

they're building factories in Mexico to import from Mexico? And that strategy obviously is no longer valid. It's bad. I mean, let's face it, a tariff war is going to hurt pretty much everyone. And even Trump acknowledged this yesterday in his speech, although he didn't acknowledge it was going to be bad. He did say there was going to be some pain. It's not going to be too bad. We can handle it. But for him to even acknowledge that, I thought was really, really notable. Yeah, we're in a full tariff war. We have retaliation now from Canada. We have retaliation now from Canada.

We have retaliation from China. Retaliation from Mexico is due on Sunday. And then on April the 2nd, according to what Trump confirmed last night, more tariffs kick in according to the reciprocal report that he's getting on April the 1st. And of course, I'm speaking to you from Europe. We're just waiting.

As a tequila drinker, as someone said in the comments as well, and someone who likes maple syrup, it's hard for me to get behind these tariffs on Mexico and Canada. But it does seem like, to be honest, they're trying to get to free trade and reciprocal tariff agreements. And if that's where we land, do you think that that would be reasonable? Reciprocal tariffs are not reasonable. I don't think tariffs at this level

are going to be reasonable, period. It is very much shock therapy, and I'm very sympathetic to the notion that the global economic imbalances need to be redressed. And frankly, I think we can also acknowledge that President Trump is probably the only president with the mandate to do that in recent history and possibly future in

coming years as well. So it needs to be done but the effects are very very uncertain. We don't have to go back too far in history to realize that when you really squeeze allies, bad things happen geopolitically and this is at a time when we are in a multipolar world anyway. So no, tariffs are not good, although obviously the imbalances need to be redressed and the political fallout is what I'm most nervous about. I don't know how much we value or weigh the opinions of the IMF, but here from George Eva, trade no longer driving growth as in past, basically making the points that that has been the main driver obviously of globalism and global economic growth has obviously been trade between nations

and that the current policies obviously are bringing an end to that. Everybody's having to react all over the world. Doesn't this mean that we should get significant economic contraction worldwide? In theory, yes, as the adjustment trickles through the system. But when you get contractions, especially in democracies, unexpected things happen. And that's what I mean when I say I'm really worried about the political fallout. Polarization is the norm now at ballot boxes across the developed, across developed economies and developing economies, entirely different situation.

They're choosing their alliances and they're obviously going to be forced to choose more extreme options going forward. And do you remember early this decade, early this century, we were assured that trade would eliminate war because you don't go to war with trading partners. We were going to be heading into a world of future, an unlimited future of peace and prosperity. Well, that didn't work out. Trade doesn't necessarily eliminate war as we have seen, but not trade, lack of trade certainly doesn't eliminate it either.

And that's another concern that we really should start to get our heads around. And all of this leads into the uncertainty narrative which is one of the things feeding into the volatility that you talked about just a few minutes ago, Scott. The uncertainty breeds volatility but it also breeds flight into safe havens. And that's another narrative buffeting the crypto markets

as well as traditional markets today. Well, it certainly has helped gold. Right? Gold. We talked about the debates here we had the Dave Weisberger for versus Mike McGlone, which would outperform in a year and it was about a year ago. Mike obviously said gold and Dave said Bitcoin and we're trying to find the exact date to even see who won because it's been that close. Gold has performed exceptionally well. So far this year it has outperformed. Obviously it's going to come down to the dates

because we're going back to last March, right? Well, obviously things are very different last March. But yeah, so far Gold has outperformed Bitcoin this year, which is extraordinary. I remember on Monday when things were all over the place. And yesterday as well, looking at my screen and the only numbers that weren't in red were, get this, German stock exchange because of defense spending, gold and the VIX. And that's a pretty bleak scenario right there. Yeah, I want to talk about Germany more

because we have this situation, obviously, it seems to be obviously reactionary to the United States backing out of a commitment to fund Ukraine, right? And the war in Ukraine, and then obviously, Germany saying, well, we need to step up, this is on our borders, and we're going to have to do the job ourselves. But effectively, a massive stimulus package likely coming out of Germany right now to rebuild that infrastructure and the military,

which I have about hundreds and hundreds of billions of euros. I have to find the exact number. I know I had it and my brain is not working. There are 500 billion infrastructure fund to invest in priorities such as transportation, energy grids and housing over 10 years. And that's not even on the military side. I mean, this is massive stimulus.

Yes. I think it's the best thing that could have happened to Germany. Well, I think the announcement on Monday was shocking. It was, and as a European upsetting for all of us. We want the war to end, but to totally hang Ukraine out to dry like that. Again, we can understand something needed to move,

and this is definitely going to move the needle. So it was a very shocking move. Now, Europe has scrambled as Europe tends to do. It's not very good at planning. It's very good at scrambling. Reactionary. Yes, exactly. 800 billion euros of stimulus, of loans coming from Europe

that are over the next four years that we're going to somehow help Ukraine defend itself. It's just ludicrous. It really is. No way are they going to get the 800 because most of that is discretionary according to the member states. And they don't necessarily want to raise their debt

relative to GDP, which is gonna be hit anyhow with tariffs coming through. So it's Europe again, promising a lot, delivering little, but Germany is a different situation. I think Germany could do this. Germany needs to do this. Germany has been handcuffed by its debt break. It has had strict limits on what it can spend and the fact that they are now acknowledging they need to lift that is a huge

Political I'll say coup because it's a very very big deal for the German psyche. They don't like the idea of debt They just don't whereas now we are going on German is Lifetime policy of how to handle, you know, fiscal responsibility. It's almost as big as Japan all of a sudden having inflation. Huge. Huge. And not just fiscal responsibility, Scott. That is a very big part of it because I don't know if you've been to Germany recently. I haven't. But I know people who have and they say it's falling to pieces. It really is. The train stations, the highways, they literally are collapsing

and Germany can't spend because they've got so many other big commitments. But Germany has been terrified of military spending for historical reasons, for obvious reasons. They've been terrified of it. And the fact that they are now acknowledged that they need to step up their NATO commitments, as well as they need to step up border security. And they need to somehow figure out how they need to make weapons to send to Ukraine. Not only that, they need to get the transport that can take the weapons to Ukraine. They don't even have that. So it's the best thing that could have happened to Germany. It doesn't mean it's not going to be shockingly painful though as resources are allocated elsewhere and as the whole political apparatus shifts its psyche. And this is at a time when the far right AFD party is gaining in popularity and the upcoming hardships because of shifts in spending, and it will be, let's face it, that's probably going to even

further exacerbate the polarization that we've been seeing in the polls, especially among younger voters. But that said, stimulus short term is good news for Germany, hopefully good news for Europe if you think they can get it through the pipelines in time. Is this a reallocation of resources from somewhere else or can we assume that this is effectively money printing? Both, it's gonna be both. So there will be a bit of austerity in there

for other areas that will be reallocated to military and infrastructure, but clearly they're going to have to sell some bonds, do something. It's interesting because obviously they're on the euro, so can an individual nation, I've never really, you know, we always talk about the Fed and the United States money printer. I've never really done a deep dive on how that would happen in Euro with multiple nations involved. You've hit the nail on the head.

That's one of the reasons why Europe is very much stuck. Skoll, we don't even have common capital markets yet. So Europe can't really issue bonds. I mean, it has done so in the past once after the pandemic and an emergency situation. It's talking about doing so again to help out Ukraine and also to help out European defense spending more broadly. But one, there isn't agreement on what that would look like. Two, Germany has no interest in helping out Greece with its debt requirements. And three, even if they were to get that capital markets union first steps going, we don't have banking

union. So it's, it's crazy. It's put and what I'm concerned about, and this comes back to my refer my referring the political referring to the political uncertainty, the political fallout from the tariff uncertainty. And that is this Europe is unity is hanging by a thread that may be a slight exaggeration for now but I'm pretty confident that two three years from now it won't be much of an exaggeration the AFD campaigned on taking Germany out of the Union can you imagine what would happen to the Union if that happens other support for leaving the Union is climbing in other countries as well, including the one that I live in, which is Spain. And Hungary has flat out allied itself, Hungary is an EU member,

it has flat out allied itself with Russia and will shoot down any vote that requires consensus on sending aid to Ukraine. So it's stuck stuck it's really stuck and We have these concerns with obviously Trade reductions of a contraction while we obviously have for better or for worse. I think for better We have doge in the United States. It's very hard to honestly parse how much they've cut Based on the numbers I've been trying to dig into but obviously that is a form of austerity by a different name, right, which could contribute to a contraction in the United States. We also just got some job numbers today. I don't know if you saw this, but private jobs report missed

pretty big 77k in February, far below the 140k expected. So this could be signs of a cooling labor market as Andre from bitwise happened to comment right under government payrolls are also contracting, which is not even announced as as a part of this. Yep. What Nick saying this is Biden. It's just, you know, but but clearly we have a lot of signs that we could be heading either towards recession or some sort of contraction in the short term.

Maybe that's actually what they want. Just rip the bandaid off very quickly. I mean, even balancing the budget at this point, I sort of quipped about this on Twitter, but Luttening said if we balance the budget rates come smashing down, well, yeah, it's because we're going into a recession. That's a very good comment. I love it. Yeah. Absolutely. And that highlights the, I guess, dichotomy or the contradiction that we're seeing in the markets now. We know inflation expectations are unanchored. We're seeing stickiness, if not outright increases.

The input price index that we saw on, I think it was Monday's ISM manufacturing data drop. It's the highest since mid-22, which when we were in full rate hikes, they were just getting going in mid-22. So inflationary pressures are there, and this is even before taking into account what tariffs are gonna do to the various indices. Now, if that indeed were the case, would you not see long-term,

would you not see bond yields climbing? Because surely that means Fed funds are going to be hiking again. We're not seeing that. We're seeing bond yields dropping. Now this is, in my opinion, very much down due to the growth concerns that you just talked about. It could also be down to expectations of some deficit reduction and therefore less bond issuance coming through the pipeline. There's

probably a mix of both in there, but I think the growth concerns are front and foremost now. And I think we are going to see quite a shock on Friday. That's my opinion, obviously. I'm going to see a shock on Friday because the hundred thousand of job reductions so far, the latest figure that I've seen, I don't know how accurate that is, but that's what I saw just the other day, far as the latest figure that I've seen. I don't know how accurate that is, but that's what I saw just the other day. That isn't necessarily going to feed through to the jobs reports Friday's figure is the federal hiring freeze. And the government has been accounting for most of the jobs increases in previous reports. So I think there's probably going to be some undershooting there because I would expect that the forecasts do include the usual dollop of government jobs, government hiring.

Yeah, with a few minutes left, I wanna refocus on crypto. It's sort of become the age old question of many weeks. It used to be that age old questions were years, but now we look at things in days and weeks in the crypto market, but we have definitive tailwinds for Bitcoin certainly, and for the industry as a whole. We've talked it to death, right? Likely legislation, deregulation,

clearly very pro crypto people in very important positions of power, but all in the face of this insane macro that you just described. So when we ask, where is crypto headed next? How do we weigh which one of those is going to be a more important factor moving forward in a vacuum? Bitcoin should absolutely be flying the announcement to real talk of strategic reserves after we

saw that as a campaign promise. I would have thought originally if Trump hadn't of truth to his way into adding XRP and Cardano and all of these, if he had said the words Bitcoin strategic reserve is the actual president that we would have been at 150 in a week possibly but I do think there is widespread skepticism that this would get through Congress now there are ways that it could go around Congress I'm guessing but that would not be a long-term measure that would be by its not be a long-term measure. That would be, by its very nature, a short-term measure, which I don't think any of us would want.

I don't think anybody would want that for the government and also for the Bitcoin, for the crypto markets more broadly. Now the tailwinds versus the headwinds, I am so glad I'm not a trader. My heart goes out to all of you traders out there because this is not just catching falling knives. This is catching knives flying all over the place. My heart goes out to all of you traders out there because this is not just catching falling knives. This is catching knives flying all over the place. And I think the macro is going to weigh heavy for a while. We got some bad news coming. We are heading into slowing growth.

I was writing this morning about the GDP Now models predicting a contraction Q1 of 2.8%. That's a contraction. And then a Fed was like minus 1.5% and it was supposed to be plus three or something. So the swing is. Yeah, it dropped from a positive 2.3 down to boom, minus 1.5 and then the very next workday, boom down to 2.8 contraction.

It's now at 2.8 contraction. Now it'll probably bounce back because a lot of that is to do with the net imports. A lot of that is to do with construction spending coming down. A lot of that is to do with some of the other data that we've had since then. It's probably gonna bounce back

because a lot of that is to do with tariff uncertainty. You bring forward your purchases if you know prices are gonna go up, right? But still, ouch. And I think that is going to be, it's going to be encouraging the risk of mood that we are seeing. However, sellers are eventually going to get exhausted. And with an asset with a finite supply that trades 24, 7, 365, and that does have another narrative to boyd demand, that's when things will start to move. When that will happen, nobody knows because it really does depend on sellers getting exhausted.

What's amazing about crypto though is that we can actually see what's happening on the blockchain and when we had that announcement on Sunday, billions in Bitcoin, a theory of XRP flowed to exchanges after Trump's reserve plan. So very clearly right now, obviously if people are sending billions of dollars to an exchange, generally the intention is to sell, right? And that's, we saw literally the biggest move in history, I think up almost on Sunday, one of across the board, and then the second worst day on Monday. And that only happens because there's still people who are really excited to sell massively into pumps

right now. Yeah. And seriously, and all we now need is for an announcement of no tax on capital gains from crypto And that could bring some more selling into the market Which is funny because you think it would bring a lot more buying into the market Again, we're waiting a year to be selling into the market. Yeah, you know It's listen. I mean it makes my job fun because we have a lot to talk about all the time

But not boring. How but the whiplash is not helping. Yeah. Don't you sometimes find yourself longing for just a little bit of boredom? I remember when we were bored and we were longing for excitement, there has to be a happy medium. So anything else on your radar before I let you go? I mean, I think that zoomed out Bitcoin will continue to do exceptionally well because

of those tailwinds. But I do feel like there's a bandaid ripping happening here with markets in general. And so you have to just be cautious. I do think Bitcoin can also, by the way, detach from that. I don't think that that means Bitcoin goes down. But it's just so much. Totally agree. Bitcoin will detach at one stage.

There's definitely no way of knowing when that is. Again, it depends on overall sentiment. And when it comes to the overall uncertainty out in macro markets, again, there's a sort of fine balance here. We've got bad news coming through slowing growth and through the trade war. But then again, the trade war could turn out to be something different. We could have President Trump change his mind on some things. And let's face it, Scott, the end of the war in Ukraine is going to be good news. There is going to be a news, there is going to be a peace dividend, even if it leaves a bad taste in our mouths and that we don't know when that's going to happen. But we

can assume it is going to happen within the next few months of the latest. Well, I can't believe we just plowed through 30 minutes, it felt like about three minutes. Yes, exactly. So much to talk about. But it's amazing. I'm sure we'll have you back on a Monday very soon as well since people seem to like you so much more than me when you post Mac or Monday to be honest.

Always fun talking to you, Scott. Thank you so much. Really appreciate it. All right, everybody. Well, you should go give Noel I should have said this while she was on but obviously go give her a follow on X her account is right down in the description. And of course, right before we get to Chris which I didn't get to do last week I feel very bad I had to cancel on him for I think a Yahoo Finance appearance obviously you know that Wednesdays here are sponsored by Aptos had an incredible conversation not long ago with Avery Ching, who is the CEO, which is worth revisiting, just wanted to show you a tweet from him on some of the fundamentals that are happening. And this is, I think, just indicative of the conversation we just had. There is going to be a time in my mind, just speaking of the market in general, when people start to care about fundamentals and utility again, and not just about memes and And a lot of these block block chains and aptos in particular growing exceptionally fast.

I mean, they now have the top three stable coins tether us. You see Athena was just added. That was big news. I don't know if you saw that, but has now landed on aptos. As you can see here, they have over 130 million in stable coins on aptos already incredible for a new change. I mean, cheapest transaction fees, fastest blockchain, but also the fastest transaction fees. Aptos, as you can see here, they have over 130 million in stable coins on Aptos already incredible for a new change. I mean, cheapest transaction fees, fastest blockchain, BlackRock and others issuing assets

here, tokenization, real world assets all coming to these chains. The problem is that right now we're just not talking about any of it because Donald Trump controls the crypto market and every single tweet, truth X, whatever we call them seems to sway things. I'm still highly confident for Aptos and otherwise that we're going to get back to caring deeply about fundamentals and what's being built, and how fast and cheap and secure those things can be and truly believe that there'll be a winner in that. So check out everything Aptos has obviously right down in the

description linked as well. And you should follow Avery, he's awesome. Avery Ching, at Avery Ching. And go ahead and bring on Chris, dude, what is happening? You know, 12,000 up, 12,000 down, all in a day's work. Yeah, I mean, you know, the rally was not surprising. That kind of hit the level that I had posted there on X and some I'd been talking about with our students over at the Academy earlier in the previous week,

right there around the pivot. And so, right there basically around mid-range of the daily fair value gap. So, I mean, it was not surprising where it went You know the the sell-off following the next day was a bit more surprising But we didn't actually you know I always talk about there's levels we have to get through to get some confirmation and we didn't actually get that stopped right before It and we got that pullback and then it was like oh, it's gonna go down and then yesterday pop right back up You know and so really just kind of range range bound locally and really just part of the overall structure with that drop down. But before we jump on that, let's look at the DXY here real quick. This is something I've been talking about for a while. And the reality is, everybody can talk

about liquidity and there are multiple ways to get liquidity. One of the ways is if the dollar loses value against other currencies, that creates liquidity. And so this is something I've been talking about for a while here, which is this large picture, this idea that we've got at the very least an A and a B as a flat here. And then we'll have C coming down into the low 90s at least. Now this could be a one, a two, you know, then three, four, five of an ABC and that leads us down into the 70s even. But, um, nonetheless huge moves down here, uh, you know from from that move up. Right now the weekly is breaking down through that. You know, again, I call it the weekly pivot, but it's the yearly pivot.

It shows up on the weekly and monthly timeframes, that 105.51. So we're getting that big push down through it. Locally, it looks like it's a one, two, three, four and a fifth wave here. So probably going to gain a bounce here, sometime this week, maybe next week and get some movement up. But overall, that top looks and it looks like we are going to continue down through 100 down into the 90s Um, so, you know the dollar versus other currency is going to go down there

Uh, and so that's kind of what we're looking at So we're kind of following through with exactly what uh what i've been looking for which is great but again bitcoin, you know, uh, we have the again the pivot right here at 80,000 92 and 63 cents here on the uh, bitcoin all-time index Uh, you know, this is the daily fair value gapper You can see we pop just on the discount side of it right past the the eq of it Right back up and then there was the surprise was that moved down And then yesterday again, moved back up

and we can look at volume. And volume over the three days is pretty similar. It depends on what exchange you're looking at. But on the index here, volume continues to expand as we're moving through this, which tells you, again, we had more supply than we wanted to see up here. But that's been soaked up on this move down. The question is, is that enough to kind of

get it out of the way so price can advance? And that's what we're looking at. So big picture wise, you know, we're sitting here right now above the pivot here on the daily timeframe, that 88, 488 area. But we really, at this point, we really need a breakout above 95, 150, and 47 cents, because We really need a breakout above 95 150 in 47 cents because this is three waves up which is corrective So generally speaking defaults, we should be looking for it to come down lower. But if it does break out higher It's possible we can get you know a w x y here or even a diagonal. So this ABC becomes one there's your two You have ABC three and you have four you have ABC five heading up here as an ascending wedge. When I say a diagonal, I'm talking about an

ascending wedge in this case. And so, you know, but until we're breaking out above 95.150 and 47 cents, the default thought should be we're going to break down lower. Now, what does that mean? Well, should be we're gonna break down lower. Now, what does that mean? Well, the first place I would look here is this S1 pivot around 74,207. So, again, when we were looking for a breakdown, we were looking at potentially just a sweep below the swing low here,

the pivot right here that we hit, or the S1 pivot kind of areas at 73 to 75,000 kind of area. So now if we get the breakdown that would be my initial target but based on the height of this pullback we could potentially see it getting down around 69 to 70 000 if it were to break down. So we just kind of measure out the height there. We look at that 1618 right there around 69 and a half. And gets us, you can see here, kind of gets us right at this previous resistance area here coming through. So it makes a lot of sense, but the big picture here, if we kind of, now that we can see what we've got here on the screen, you can see this huge low volume node. And something I often teach is price will rarely run through that low volume node without,

you know, testing it a few times. And so really this is kind of the first test of it. And we kind of came down around halfway there, rally right back up into the high volume node area here. So again, you know, I'm not excited to kind of jump in here until we see this, this really this movement above 95 95 150 and a half or so then we've got a potentially you know top of the range up here at around 104 or so um and that sets up a possible break on out higher if we're looking for a pattern target based on the height of this here that actually gives us a 134 268 target. That wouldn't be the top. I would expect to move up there, I move down back to this range here,

which would then act as a base and then one more push up higher. So, you know, with that in mind, the reality of, you know, not finishing the cycle until the end of the year becomes a lot more likely. But again, you know, we are sideways right here between this, you know, this Friday into whatever this was Sunday range here. And we need either a breakdown or a breakout before we really get excitable either way. But even if we were to break down, you know, again, I still think it's just a correction right now. Stocks are looking really, it's just a correction right now. Stocks are looking really, I've shared so many charts yesterday with our students and so many just amazing setups are really sitting there right now.

And so it's hard to imagine that we're going to see the stocks rally and not crypto, especially with all the pro crypto stuff coming from the administration and you know, what is it Friday, pro crypto stuff coming from the administration and Friday, he sat there to mention something about Bitcoin. So yeah, it's hard to be really bearish. I know there's people out there who are, but there's been people who have been bearish the entire way up in the last couple of years, which has been crazy. So yeah, I'm not heading into that. So in the macro situation, like I was discussing with you, does any of that concern you for

markets? None of it, particularly like I said, I think Bitcoin can do fine in the face of any of it. No matter how much news we get, stocks just seem fine. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, right now, even with stocks, just seems like a pullback, a correction. I'm setting up for a much greater move up. A few years back, probably about 2021 or so, I think, whenever the Dow was right around 28, 29,000, I said it was likely that we were going to see 50,000 before we saw any kind of real recession come in. And so right now we've rallied up to what, about 44, 45, 46,000 somewhere in there. So we're kind of getting pretty close to that doesn't mean we have to stop at 50 but

You know 50 is that psychological number kind of like a hundred for Bitcoin, right? So I think we've got a lot more upside, you know, we come to stocks when we come to Bitcoin and then we have and then we have the rest of crypto, right? then we have Alts which people are really upset about because it was a lot of, you know, well, we want to just get emotional and buy in at the tops and then complain about the fact it's dropped 80%. You know, this is typical for, you know,

new traders coming to any market. But, you know, we've got TIA here on the weekly. I really, I really kind of like this setup. It is a very deep pullback for two, so I want to be careful here. But if we can break that $5.70 level, we're likely to hit $9.30. And if we break that, that should indicate we're going to head up to new all-time highs. So, you know, you can see that $9.30 area is right there around that yearly pivot. You know, again, breaking out through that should be good to go much higher there. But if we zoom in a little bit more here, we start looking at some dailies. This is NS, I came to say it's synthetics and and

SNX cheese. SNX SNX. There we go. There we go. Divergences at the bottom by the way, but hey, whatever. What was that? We had bullish divergences on all these alts across the board on the little pop the other day, but. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, you know. And so with this one, we've got this,

we broke down through this previous support here and then then retested resistance, dropped down lower here again. And with this here, we're kind of at this, this kind of support area here as we get to that lower volume node. For me, if we can break out back above that $1.08.5, really I would just give it because the the pivot so close there, but that monthly pivot that shows up on the daily here at $1.11 and a half. If we can get an impulsive daily candle breakout and close above that, I think you know, $1.62

becomes the next target. If we can break out above that $2.26 and a half cents becomes the next target. And if we're doing that, the odds are high that we are going to break out above this swing high here at $3 and what is that $3 and 69 cents. And probably, you know, we would be looking up here at the next area up here about $5. I mean, it's a step by step move along the way. But right now, that's what I'm looking for. If we're to break down, though, I mean it's a step by step move along the way, but right now that's what I'm looking for. If we're to break down though, I mean you know and this is going to be the common thing across most of these alts. They're kind of between the pivot and the S1 and so if you break down and lose your support there, I would look at the S1 pivot. In this case that's right there about 61 cents

and I would look for a rejection there to carry back above the pivot and really kind of send it up But you know I think it's potentially there, but we knew need that breakout And so again you know same thing across multiples here This is super USD which Possibly could have finished a running flat here. We've got a big structure Coming off the low down here in October 23. So we've got what appears to be a one and then an A, a B, potentially a running flat here. But again, you know, we're looking for the same thing. We're looking for a

daily candle, impulsive breakout and close above that pivot at 69 cents To kind of signal. Okay, we're gonna rally up most likely But if we lose support here instead, you know, we're bouncing right out of this weekly demand structure here But I would look forward to target the s1 pivot down there around 38 and a half cents which gets us right around I believe that's the weekly. Yeah the weekly For the yearly s1 pivot here But if we take the bigger picture here, it really doesn't look bad, right? This, we're getting a bounce right now in this low volume node, but then, you know, we've got a much bigger low volume node here, you know, which that area there could catch it if it were to come down. And then it just gives us this big

expanded flat. And then we just look for that thing to take off. But you know again, one, two, three, four, five, ABC, ABC, and I'm saying right here it looks like we could get a running flat because we have what may be five down here already without breaking down below wave A. So again, you know, up through the daily pivot or down looking toward that S1 pivot is what we'd be looking for there. Sushi, I get a lot of people still asking about sushi, which is interesting. Still staying. It was big for a while there, you know? And then people stopped crossing the line.

Yeah. Well, we had the sweep here, right? So we had this sweep back in August of last year of all the way over here, which was June of 23. So we swept that. Looks like it's three, four, five. Looks like it's a leading diagonal here and potentially an ABC done at about a 78.6 pullback. So once again, looking for that breakout above that pivot at 92 cents, really looking for a breakout above this, the swing high just slightly higher there at 98.86 cents.

If we can do that, I'm looking for a target up here at this wave B at $1.92 and a half. And if we can break out above that, we should be headed up above that swing high, hang up there. But again, if we break down below the swing low here, we can look down toward this S1 pivot at just around 57 or 54.7 cents. And we'd look for a reversal here to kind of get us in that move back up above the pivot. So again, the same thing kind of playing across

a lot of these alts as we look at it. Storage was another one. Again. I haven't heard the name storage in a long time. It's been crazy, right? All these things that we heard so much about for such a short period of time and then also. But yeah, if we look here,

it looks like we've got one, 2, 3, 4, 5 up. It looks like maybe ABC or maybe ABC, right? Either way, a little bit deeper pullback here. But again, looking for that breakout above that daily pivot there at 36 cents. If we can get that, this one I would just keep toward this loan wick up here. So right around the R1 pivot at 46 cents would be my initial target if we can break out above that there at 49 cents that wick I would look up into the next wick here r2 pivot right there about 59 cents and if we're doing that the odds are we're

gonna break out through the top here and continue up higher. But again, if we lose that swing low, S1 pivot at.231, 23.1 cents would be the target area. And I'd look to see if we can get a reversal off that and head up through that pivot. And finally, stacks here. Stacks, I like. Stacks, there we go. Yeah, yeah. So, you know, here we are again, same idea. We're sideways between the pivot and the S1 coming in. You know, if we lose support, S1 pivot at 0.579 would be where I'd look for a reversal. And if we can get that, you know, we just want to break out again above the pivot there at 0.962. Or if we can go from here and break out above the pivoted point at 96.2, that opens us up to this low volume node and we should kind of pop through

that up here toward, you know, potentially, let me throw here, generally around this area, around a $1.35 would be my initial targets right there at the top. If we can break on through that, then I think we kind of continue to run it up here for this next kind of resistance area here at about $2. And if we're getting up there, again, the idea is we're gonna break out above this swing high. And if we do that, we should break out above,

what is that? Is that the all time high there? Yeah, we should break out above the all time high and continue up higher. But you know, it's it's step by step. And I know for a lot of people that are in alts, it's been tough, right? And so, you know, me saying, oh, on the daily timeframe, you need to wait for this. And I know that's probably driving them nuts. But the alternative is you jump in on the one, you know, on the 15 minute time frame and thinking about weekly, you know, movements and you get caught and you get, you know, trashed again and again. This is why, you know, I always tell people, listen, don't just get stuck trading crypto.

You know, learn the skills that you can trade and then, you know, trade, you Bitcoin, trade stocks, trade futures, trade forex. Yeah. Oh yeah. For sure. I mean, lots of opportunity everywhere. Even when there's not one in your alts, maybe you can find there's been great opportunities trading the euro against the dollar for a while now, as far as longing that. It's been absolute banger trade, you know Shorting the USD against the yen Since it reached the top there a few months back has been a great bit of money to be made even while all four sucking wind So a lot of opportunity out there. Don't just get caught up in just trading all it's otherwise You're gonna be miserable sitting here going God, you know, I gotta wait. I gotta wait. I gotta wait

But that's you know, that's the reality situation. That's how you kind of save yourself. I want to show you something on stacks and I'm seeing across the board just for the record, because this is the stacks daily, by the way, and you had all of these things finally hitting oversold all across the board, all on RSI. And potentially, I mean, you had a bullish divergence there, some hidden bearish obviously here, but now you're looking at another potential bullish divergence here on the daily coming out of oversold on so many altcoins Yeah, yeah, you know the you know initially if you're if you can't hold off and wait on that higher time frame

You know look for a look to get above a lower high on whatever time frame you're on right? When we talk about structure market structures are you know? Higher highs higher lows gives you the bullish market structure lower highs followed by lower lows alternating Give you the the bearish market structure, and so you know if you can get over a You know a lower high Maybe you got a chance to get in you know on a lower timeframe Maybe you got a chance to get in there But know, on a lower timeframe, maybe you got a chance to get in there. But you know, it's important to remember what timeframe you're on. Too many

people get in there and they're watching the five minute timeframe and that's all they're watching to get into some reversal. But you know, if you don't know where you're looking on the larger timeframe to then zoom into the five minute timeframe, a lot of times you're just going to get caught on a bounce or something before it continues lower. And then you're wondering what the heck's going on. So you want to be careful with that. Yeah, absolutely. Well, guys, I got to run follow TX West Capitol. Chris, check your WhatsApp. I sent you a message the other day. I don't think you saw it, but. Oh, okay. All right. Great. Yeah.

That was my personal plea to Chris. And otherwise, guys, give Chris a right. Great. Yeah That was my personal pleads Chris and otherwise guys give Chris a follow join Texas West capital and we will Obviously see you guys next week. Thanks Ben Thank you Let's go.