The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Close to All-Time High! Breakout Soon? | Crypto Town Hall
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Transcript
Discussion (0)
Ryan, can you hear me now?
Yeah, I can hear you.
How are you?
I'm doing well. How are you?
Good, man. Good. How are the...
First, you're coming to talk in 2049 in Dubai?
I am not, actually.
I believe Matt Hogan, our CIO, is, though.
Do you guys have a crew in Paris as well?
No, not really.
Most of our clients are US-based.
I mean, we're starting to kind of slowly expand internationally and working with family offices and high net worth individuals in Asia. But right now, it's primarily US-based.
Cool. And we've got Peter here as well. Peter, good to see you. And Matthew as well. And Dan. all right guys i'm gonna i'm gonna kick it off and i wanted to go to the i think the most important
issue always like to kick it off with the inflows and outflows for the etfs the metrics let me get
the metrics out i'm sure you have them as well uh ryan but let me get the numbers on my end
uh where are we all right so today april 9th we have net outflows uh so total net outflows
yesterday we're 200 so there's net outflows yesterday, 223 million.
Asco's grayscale had 303 million outflows.
Okay, so – and then the Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest single-day net inflows was Bitwise.
So congratulations for being number one yesterday, Ryan, as well. Another day for being the first. So I think your strategy is working,
which includes communicating with the community
on a regular basis,
joining our spaces and other shows.
But Ryan, we'd love to get your thoughts.
Yesterday's net outflows, does that mean anything?
I would love to get your general overview
of the ETS performance
and the constant leak that we're having from GBTC.
Yeah, yeah, really exciting. There's always going to be days in that outflows i think these etfs generally build over
over time their multi-year kind of allocation strategies for for most who that are investing
in them um and especially i think with bitcoin tfs they're largely going to be buy and hold
investors that are coming in initially.
We continue to see assets selling out of GBTC.
I think it obviously was expected coming into it that people had been locked up in the GBTC trade for a really long time.
So not surprised at first that we saw a lot of assets bleeding.
I'm kind of surprised that we continue to see it happening at the level it is, but investors are kind of evaluating all of the ETFs out there that they could potentially
allocate to and fees play a really heavy role in the way that investors decide to allocate.
And as financial advisors or wealth managers, sometimes you have to go to a low cost provider or
near low cost provider just out of your fiduciary responsibility to your, to your clients. So some
of that might be kind of forced reallocating out of high cost ETFs into low cost ETFs. But ultimately,
you know, at some point, the bleeding has got to stop. And a lot of some of this is definitely
shifting into other ETFs. And, you know And yesterday was net negative 245 million of flows.
But I think we're still above somewhere around 12 billion of net inflows since we launched on January 11th.
So that's quite a bit of capital coming into the space in a short amount of time. And one thing that I've kind of been thinking about when we have these massive outflow
days is there used to be so much fear around the government selling Silk Road assets or
Mt. Gox assets being liquidated at some point. And I think now what to me is clear is that the
market can absorb these massive sell-off events. We're still sitting above $70K despite $300
million of outflows from one of the ETFs
yesterday. So that leaves me feeling pretty good about the market structure and the ability to
absorb these major liquidations and major sell-offs that still kind of hang over the head of the
crypto market in some instances. Two questions I have. First, do RIAs care much about the Bitcoin
halving as a narrative?
Is anyone watching it in the traditional world, or is it just us, DGens?
That's a good question.
Surprisingly, a lot of the crypto-aware financial advisors or Bitcoin-aware financial advisors in RIAs are paying attention.
I think that's the one crypto event that RAs are aware of,
because as soon as they learn about Bitcoin
and wrap their arms around Bitcoin,
the halving is one of those core elements
that they look to understand
or that helps them understand
the whole supply-demand dynamic.
So we actually have a surprisingly amount of questions
about the halving,
trying to understand, like, is the halving priced in?
You know, do we expect the halving to have a significant impact on price from here out
or whatnot?
And so I will say like the one thing that always surprises me is the question around,
you know, how do you know that it's going to happen?
How do we know that the having is going to happen?
How come there won't be more Bitcoin just created once we hit that 21 million cap?
And again, that just shows how early we are.
And people still need to understand that this is coded into the network and can't be changed.
It's immutable.
But yeah, they know about it.
It's probably one of the biggest crypto events they know about compared to something like the Merge or the Ethereum is that you can upgrade.
Those aren't things that they're aware of.
Oh, nice.
Is my mic okay or is it still cutting? It they're aware of. Oh, nice. Is my mic okay, or is it still cutting?
It sounds good to me.
Oh, perfect. Next question I have before going to Matthew.
How are the numbers comparing expectations?
I know the early days of the ETF since launch, it beat everyone's expectations.
It beat even Rand's most optimistic expectations pretty quickly.
Is it still meeting those expectations, exceeding them,
or is it starting to underperform a bit? Yeah, it's still exceeding them, I would say. The
fact that we haven't had massive outflows for many, many days in a row. I mean, we clearly
have a reset day every few days where we see some outflows. But on a net basis, Fidelity and
BlackRock have seen positive days
or a streak of net inflows since launching
that rivals all ETFs ever launched.
They're in the top 30, 25 ETFs
as far as it goes, streaks of days with inflows.
So, I mean, we're definitely really impressed
with the adoption that we're seeing.
I think we're still in the early innings of adoption
because of all those platform approvals
that we expect to happen. And so, happy to see it. And I think we'll just in the early innings of adoption because of all those platform approvals that we expect to happen. And so happy to see it. And,
you know, I think we'll just keep inching our way up upwards.
And at some point we'll see another big, you know,
step level unlock where we'll see hundreds of millions of inflows every day,
or maybe a day with, you know, half a million or half a billion, sorry,
and inflows. But yeah, really happy to see it.
50 million of 50 know 50 million or
100 million in etf in its first three months is a big deal generally speaking so to have many of
these etfs with multi-billions or tens of billions of dollars in them in the first few months is
is really not something to balk at and really impressive and so yeah definitely still uh excited
about ryan one last question before going to mat to Matthew. I'm just generally curious what happens post-harving, which is kind of the title of the space.
I'm looking from the TradFi market, and
that's represented with the inflows and outflows of the ETF. So do you expect,
if you had to speculate, would you expect inflows to pick up post-harving?
Could we have TradFi follow our narrative?
Yeah, I think inflows will pick it pulls a pickup post having i think most of tradfi is looking at this as a buy and hold opportunity and so once they're
allowed to buy it they're just going to start buying it and they won't be trading it like a lot
of uh you know traders do in crypto and so yeah i took them to to pile into it once they're allowed to do so and they'll be buying and holding it.
And, you know, a lot of these platforms or RAA firms have model portfolios, right, where they have a model portfolio constructed.
I don't know, it might be 70% stocks, 10% alts, 20% something else.
And in that 10% alt sleeve, they might have a one to three or 5% allocation of Bitcoin. And so
that's just being rebalanced on a quarterly basis. And if Bitcoin goes down a little bit,
they'll buy more Bitcoin to get that allocation back up to 3%. Or when they get new money from
a client, they'll just automatically put 3% of that into Bitcoin. And so the way they're investing
in it is a lot different than just thinking about trading based on narrative. It's more
buy hold for the long
term as an inflation hedge or as a way to get exposure to this new asset class. So I don't
believe that they'll be taking positions off the table much coming out of the having.
And Matthew, before I go to you, I do want to ask Dan a question first, if that's okay.
Dan, just from a regulatory perspective, I think I asked you that question a few days ago,
but we didn't get time to dig into it.
I'm just kind of looking at all the different narratives, all the different possibilities, because everything's just looking so bullish for this year.
And I'm looking at any potential Black Swan events.
Anything from a regulatory perspective that we should be paying attention to, especially as we get closer to the election?
Yeah, thanks for having me again today.
Well, pertaining to the ETF, I'm not sure. But overall, macro, definitely back on the illicit finance, terrorist finance conversation.
If you want to classify that as a black swan event, if there's anything that's going to challenge our industry as a whole, it's going to be on the regulatory front. This year, it's most likely going to come into that camp just this morning.
I'm not sure if you guys subscribe to Quiddico morningo, but there's a lot going on in Washington today.
So there's a Bitcoin Policy Summit. We got our team over there covering it right now. It's a terrific event.
A lot of good folks there, Lummis, McHenry, Gillibrand.
But today as we speak, it's the Senate Banking and Housing and Urban Affairs Committee is meeting right now.
And so Ron, Dave Grimaldi, our team are over there covering it right now. And so, Ron, Dave Grimaldi, our team, we're over there covering it right now. Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemu is testifying today. And he's closely
aligned, obviously, we feel, with Senator Elizabeth Warren's efforts to beef up financial safeguards
in crypto trading. So, he's testifying today. And Warren is actually on that committee,
as well as Sherrod Brown, so two of our, I would say, more of our antagonists in the Senate. And they released new data. So Treasury today,
they released some new findings from Bank Secrecy Act that highlighted ransomware-related payments
rose, they claim, from 1,200 in 2022 to up to 1,500 in 2023. The vast majority of them,
they claim, comes from crypto ransomware. That's not that surprising.
But these are the conversations that really are keeping us up at night. And then there's obviously the two large scale pieces of legislation that have been proposed from Warren, Kansey and Damla.
We're watching that pretty closely.
But today, keep your eye on it.
We're going to have a full overview and a report on how this hearing goes.
But just so you know, Adyamo is going to be urging Chairman Sherrod Brown and other lawmakers to give Treasury greater authority to police crypto transactions and entities, particularly Tether,
that they see as a growing threat in the world of money laundering. We have concerns, again,
over all of that. But it looks like the market structure conversation and the stablecoin conversation are continuing.
But the national security terrorism, terrorist finance discussions have emerged as, I would say, a primary threat for the remainder of this year.
And you said it's keeping you up at night. What are the possible outcomes from this?
I'm not like Scott Deep in the regulatory world, and I don't really watch that news too much.
How concerned should we be?
Well, I mean, I don't think that they're going to give Treasury a lot of unchecked power,
but they are leveraging the Bank Secrecy Act and they're leveraging OFAC,
Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control.
They're going to push for jurisdiction over dollar-denominated stablecoins.
Again, so that would include Tether, that would include USDC.
And the concern is it could become bipartisan because there's a few Republican senators
now that are slowly warming up to that discussion simply because they always bring up Russia
and sanctions evasion.
So to me, be it Russia, North Korea, Hamas, cyber criminals, they're alleging that these groups are increasingly using virtual currencies and mixers, and it's allowing them to escape U.S. jurisdiction.
So they're leveraging these concerns and media headlines to push for Congress to give them more authority over the industry.
Understood. Matthew, appreciate you waiting.
We'd love to get your thoughts on the discussion we're having earlier with Ryan kind of moving
to the markets, especially with some macro numbers coming in this week.
And we'll go to Peter and Mike afterwards.
Matthew?
Awesome.
Thanks so much for having me, y'all.
Dan, it's great to hear that Dave's out there in DC fighting a good fight.
Awesome, awesome update.
Just a quick note, I wanted to echo what Ryan was talking about from a registered investment advisor
perspective. One of the big challenges that we face in this space is the sort of dueling mentality
of registered investment advisors who might be older and still think that things like Bitcoin
and crypto or a scam or no store of value, which is basically what I heard
when I went and interviewed about 25 different wealth managers in the Raleigh-Durham area.
But one other sort of challenge is that even if you have registered investment advisors who are
interested in trying to allocate this to portfolios, they are also, in a sense, having to
deal with the fact that this is not a fiduciary benefit in many cases. It's almost too
risky for them to even advise this to their clients, depending on the type of firm and
depending on the type of trading philosophy that they have. So while we continue to see the upticks
in the ETF, which is great to see, we're still at the very early innings of this where we haven't
really overcome the mental barrier that this should be put into people's asset or this should
be put into people's portfolios, even at a one or two or 3% clip. So just something interesting
there for people who don't know the kind of inner workings of how RAs work with clients.
It's just something to consider, of course. And then Matthew, just moving to the markets,
because I do want to go to Peter and Mike afterwards. Your thoughts on what you see post-halving. Do you believe in the halving narrative?
And do you also agree with Ryan that TradFi is watching that narrative just like us DGens?
Yeah, I think it's going to be interesting because I hope it's not really a sell the news event.
It never really has been a sell the news event. It never really has been a sell the news event. This is the first time with something like a narrative of an ETF where most of TradFi is going to be
looking at this to see what really happens. And I think one of the best benefits that we have from
a Bitcoin perspective, when people ask things like, well, where are the other 21 million tokens
or can they issue more? How do we know that Bitcoin halving is going to happen? It's really
nice to introduce to people how the concept of mathematics works and how coding works and how all these things actually take into play.
Because they're so used to hearing, you know, we can add new shares to a company or we can print more money.
And so they're really used to all these changing dynamics in a particular ecosystem.
And so it's interesting to see them, you know, a little worried about that.
But I love being able to answer those questions.
I think it's going to be a really important narrative, but I think it's going to fade over the next six months.
Like post-halving, it's just going to be a thing that happened, and then we'll focus on other ETFs
and other macroeconomics. Peter, we'd love to get your thoughts on the market, especially with the
CPI and PPI numbers coming in later today. How important do you think that is on the current
sentiment, and what impact do you you think could have on the markets?
I'll pass on that because, you know, I look at the charts, so CPI, whatever.
I mean, long term, my bullish narrative on Bitcoin is based on store of value and that's based on destruction of fiat.
So nothing changes there.
I just want to point out a couple of things, though.
The three major indicators that I use to position in Bitcoin remain all solidly green. So no,
no concerns from that end. But, you know, we need to look at this. People talk about
all time highs. I don't really view Bitcoin as being a new all-time highs in that it took out the April 2021 high by a few thousand dollars.
We're still there.
As far as I'm concerned, Bitcoin is not in new high grounds, although, of course, technically it is.
But we really haven't taken out a high from three years ago, as far as I'm concerned.
The market yesterday, I thought, in both...
Sorry, Peter, before you continue to show, sorry to interrupt you, Peter, but what do you mean
we didn't take out all-time highs? When would you consider us to have taken out all-time highs?
Well, I don't know if, you know, a thousand here,
a thousand there is really an all-time high. As far as I'm concerned, you know,
we're generally in the same area we were in April 2021.
Again, in November 2021, sure, we're a few thousand dollars high.
But if you look at a monthly chart or a weekly chart, we're basically at the same level we were back then.
Now, I anticipate we will.
My targets in Bitcoin are substantially higher. I believe
this halving will still mark the halfway point to the bull market that will continue into August,
September of 2025. We won't see a high till then. But I think the market is vulnerable at this point
for more of a correction than we have. You know, we've taken a pause here. This pause has really only lasted,
it's lasted really less than a month.
But I think the market's vulnerable
for somewhat of a correction here.
What kind of correction?
You know, mid to low 50s, perhaps.
The things that I'm looking at is
I do believe there's a chance for ETH
to gain on Bitcoin.
You know, ETH is in an area of long-term support relative to its Bitcoin-ETH ratio.
So I'm thinking that.
The story for me, of course, is gold, gold and silver.
I mean, even despite this big move in gold, there's just some data that's been released in the last 24 hours that show that for the eighth straight month,
investors have had net withdrawals from the physically backed ETFs in gold.
So, you know, despite the big moves, investors are not fumbling in the gold market.
They're, in fact, withdrawing. So from my position, the place to be,
at least as a swing trader,
is in gold,
not the cryptos at this point in time.
Long term, yes.
Bullish.
Bitcoin, shorter term, cautious.
Peter, I just want to say
I agree with you.
I've been thinking about the fact
that we have to,
we're at an inflation-adjusted all-time high. You can't ignore two years of money printing and thinking about the fact that we have to, we're at an inflation adjusted all time high.
You can't ignore two years of money printing and inflation in the US dollar
when you're looking at the charts.
It doesn't make any sense.
Oh, I completely agree.
I mean, that's why, you know, long-term macro point of view,
massively bullish gold. Or Bitcoin. I have not changed my position in Bitcoin
in a very long time, many months,
in terms of my base position in Bitcoin.
I still am a quarter million dollar bull in Bitcoin.
But I'm talking here in terms of
one to three month windows.
I think Bitcoin may have some vulnerability.
But yeah, we're in the midst of a massive restructuring
in how people view currencies with Bitcoin coming up as king at the end, I believe.
But from a shorter-term point of view, yeah, I just see Bitcoin as an inflation-adjusted basis, of course.
But in terms of flat price, we're at the same level as we were in 2021.
So I think there's some short-term…
By the way, Peter, I saw Vinny and Dave and others give you a thumbs up.
So I think others agree with you that we haven't really broken all time highs.
Wick and Mike and Mike, I saw you on mute and Wick, I see your hand up.
Well, I have to unmute when Peter speaks.
I always listen.
I really appreciate his wisdom.
And unfortunately, I'd love to disagree, but I completely agree.
The key problem, key thing right now is beta. We have the S&P 500 looking the most stretched it's been in years.
Just look at 100-week moving average. Volatility, the VIX index, if you take the 52-week moving
average of the VIX minus the T-bill rate, it's the lowest since 2007. And one thing I'm really
concerned about is our chief equity strategist, Gina Martin-Adams, who's been spot on, is turning bearish.
She pointed out some pairwise correlations that are looking very negative.
And Bitcoin should lead that.
Bitcoin is the number one traded 24-7 leading indicator on the planet.
And if beta corrects 10%, which we're way overdue for, just a little 10% correction, you know, stuff that used to happen in the S&P 500 in the stock market, then Bitcoin's going to have a problem. I see that the risk, I don't think it's coincident
the S&P 500 peaked the same day that the crude oil made a new high this year. That kind of was
an issue last year. And gold keeps rallying. And despite what Peter said, one hears the facts.
This year alone, there's been seven, about $7 billion of gold ETF outflows. That's total ETFs on the planet. And there's
been about $12 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows. So yeah, in the big picture, I agree, Bitcoin is
demonetizing gold. But in the short term, it still trades at basically three times the volatility of
gold and the S&P 500. And when we get that eventual correction, we all know it's going to come.
Questions if in the S&P 500, which I think is already potentially starting, then Bitcoin
will suffer and probably get to levels that Peter says.
But everything suffers initially.
But the key thing I'm concerned from a commodity standpoint is gold is the only major commodity
making new highs.
Every one of them is languishing, bumping up against upper ends of the range.
And I'll end with this.
If you're bullish anything in the U.S. and the world, why is the average yield on a 10-year note in China, in Europe, most of Asia, and even Canada about 100 and sometimes 200 basis points less than the U.S. 10-year note?
The bond market is telling you this world is heading towards a recession.
Peter Wick?
Yeah, I think NASdaq's vulnerable i i'm looking at nasdaq levels we take out
you know 18 pal on uh nearby nasdaq contract and i i think we go to 17 17 2 if that happens
wake yeah no so to echo what what what peter says we can start there um looking at bitcoin right
bitcoin's a 50 vault asset so when you're talking about an asset like that you know um looking at
the all-time highs i kind of tend to agree with peter that it really hasn't solidified all-time
highs just because it's gone above it a little bit that's what what's what crypto tends to do
tends to be more volatile
and kind of just tagging a specific dollar doesn't really put an all-time highs to me.
Now, I look at this in one of two ways, right? From an investor standpoint, so on the weekly
timeframe, and then on the swing trader timeframe, okay? So looking at the swing trader timeframe,
we've gone into from our stage two uptrend, right, which is the main uptrend you
catch in a bull market, we've now gone into a basing pattern stage three basing pattern, okay?
What normally happens in a stage three basing pattern, is it's normally what you try to de
risk, right? So then if you look at the macro environment, we have a liquidity global liquidity
backdrop to where that liquidity really isn't flowing right now, right? Because
what the Fed was doing was they were pulling liquidity from the reverse repo market.
If you look at that reverse repo market now, it's completely flat. So I think that's tapped out.
That tied in with also it being tax season here in April. I've been saying, in fact,
just three days ago in my Discord, I've been saying, in fact, just three days ago in my Discord,
I've been saying that I would kind of look for a pullback, look for opportunities on a pullback
shorter term. Longer term, again, I'm with Peter, I think longer term, you know, the money printing
is going to go on, inflation is going to go on, and I see Bitcoin a lot higher. But in the shorter
term, I do think that we could have a correction on a swing trade time frame on the daily, which could end up being an opportunity because, as I said, the macro backdrop for long term, I think that liquidity still comes in.
So long term, extremely bullish.
Short term, I do think that we could see some opportunities here to grab, especially being in that stage three basing pattern, which is telling us that the trend is starting to weaken a little bit so yeah my narrative has been for a
pullback here sometime in April I appreciate that let me go to AJ good to
have you on stage and we now want to go back to discussing the markets but also
discussing different narratives that are interesting to you right now
AJ I see you just came up not sure if you've been hearing the discussion any
comments on that before going to Vinny?
Yeah, real quick.
I'm not a regulatory guru like this awesome stage,
but I will agree with Peter and Vinny. What I'm doing is I'm trying to position myself for either side.
So even like Bitcoin and other type of altcoins to where I got in in a place to where if it does dip down, I'm OK.
And if Bitcoin does hit above 100K or 2X, I'll probably outperform Bitcoin.
So I'm just trying to play to where if what Peter says happens in the short term, I'm OK.
And if Peter is wrong, I'm doing so much better than Bitcoin is at that time.
So that's kind of where I'm trying to play.
Vinny, I want to get your thoughts on the market.
I'd like to point out something else.
Going into the halving, we're at all-time high, even inflation adjusted at least right now.
And we are at all-time high.
We're very close to all-time high hash rate on bitcoin as well
and that's never really happened before and i think you know bitcoin trading in the 60 to 70
range is probably okay um for the having if bitcoin dumps below 60k and it goes down and
some people are calling for like corrections to 45 40 um, and the halving then occurs,
you have an effective price adjustment from 73 or 72 yesterday down to 20K in terms of revenue per block.
And then the predictions about hash rate leaving the network,
which is anywhere from 7 to 15, maybe even 20% post halving,
that goes up almost exponentially because the margins,
the miners are playing with changes dramatically overnight. So the real question is, what's the
price of Bitcoin in the first adjustment period at the having? And so we have 10 days left,
nine days left. If Bitcoin can hold this current level and not dump below 60K,
everything's going to be fine. But if we see a massive dump and retrace,
it presents other technical concerns for the network
if we're going down from 72K per block down to 20K.
So if we remain in those levels, Vinny,
what do you expect to happen after having this history
repeating itself all over again?
Can you hear me?
I think Vinny can't hear me. And for those of you don't sorry i'm not clear what
happens is the blocks slow down dramatically because of the um the lost hash power and so
the the network congestion starts to pile up and then it's gonna you know it can take
weeks to to readjust if it had something um it would have that big of a drop in hash power i'm gonna bring you
down vinny vinny i've just brought you down because i think you couldn't hear me i was asking you a
few questions i want to bring you down and bring you back up so i can ask you the next question
um in the meantime let me just uh actually i'll just give it a couple minutes if anyone has
comments on what vinny just said another question i have is what happens post halving um aj
ryan matthew mike anyone can jump in on this one until i bring
vinnie back up to ask him the question have you guys have you guys looked at what actually has
happened the previous halvings like after the having has anyone actually looked from like a
price performance perspective yes yes uh yeah i if you give me one second i was just looking at a
chart that showed so what we have is we have the the previous having that what happened is after the having
went into a consolidation period so it wasn't a sell the news event last last having but it
definitely wasn't the the finale that everyone expected okay then if you go to the previous
having in 16 that actually was a sell the news event, okay, before it started to pick up.
So it both took about three months of either consolidation or some drawdowns before we
actually saw that real parabolic stage two move.
So in both the two previous halvings, you know, one was sell the news event and one
was a three-month consolidation.
Does it bother or could...
No, go ahead, Matthew. I'm'm gonna put a chart uh wick and have
a look at it i'm just gonna post it now um ryan shared that with us he was talking about it he's
gotta showing both charts i think the last having in the current one i'll put it for the audience
as well just kind of pin it above and it looks pretty identical again i'm not a chartist so so
this is normal area of expertise but i've just pinned it above. You can have a look at it, Wick.
Yeah, go ahead, Matthew.
And then Vinny's back up.
I just always find it interesting that people make these comparisons to only three other data points.
You're talking about vast market opportunity and vast market narrative potential here. And yet here we are saying like this one single narrative over the course of
two other data points,
we somehow have the ability to extrapolate what's going to happen.
And I just think that that's really interesting as a whole community that we
put so much effort and thought into this one thing.
And just because it's done something twice.
I was thinking the same.
That's what I was surprised when I asked Ryan the question,
like do, do, do, do, do, do tradify investors, do RWA's, not RWA's, registered investment advisors, RIA's, care much about the halving? And then Ryan's answer is yes, they're talking about it and they understand the halving. So it just becomes, it just feels like it's-
Do they? Do they really? I don't believe they do.
No. I think all they're looking at is the supply side change.
They go, oh, we get less inflation.
That's great.
But I don't think they understand the technical details they're having.
I mean, we've, you know, like I think Matthew is saying now, like to his point, you can't look at three data points going back.
And then you also have to look at what are the conditions that are different this time.
Let's talk about that for a second.
First of all, we're in a high interest rate environment. We have a liquidity problem globally.
One May refunding is coming and we're going to see what Yellen's going to do there and what the
market's going to do. It's all happening in one month. We have the CPI happening right now. We
have Bitcoin at all time highs in terms of hash rate, in terms of price. That's never happened before at a halving event.
You know, we have a massive concentration of coins inside an ETF with basically, and ETFs have never traded before at this sort of level of scale.
I tell people ETFs trade like maybe 40 hours a week.
Bitcoin trades 24-7.
This is a bug, not a feature.
We have a problem where there can be market dislocation when ETFs are not traded.
The market reopens Monday, and all of a sudden, people are selling off because they're petrified about something happened over the weekend,000, $700,000, or whatever it is, sitting in ETS where they're just dumping because they're getting orders in and people are selling, which creates more downward pressure on Bitcoin, forcing more miners to go off the network because it's not profitable.
And then you've just had a harping.
So a lot of bad shit can go wrong this month, guys.
I'm just pointing out that I'm not saying it will.
I'm just saying if you talk about a perfect storm, this is it.
And that's my position right now.
I think we just need to get through this next month,
and then we can start talking about the future.
But there are a lot of storm clouds on the horizon,
and I'm going to go into a bunker for the next month.
Go ahead, Ryan.
Yeah, I mean, I understand what you're saying, most people, most advisors don't understand the technical aspects of the halving around what the impact it has on hash rate and miners.
I think most people on crypto Twitter probably don't understand the technical aspects of the halving, to be fair.
And they think in large of the narrative is around the decrease in future new supply hitting the market. But inflation, national debt, high interest rates,
ETS, free and increased demand,
all of these things are what financial advisors think about
and know about and pay attention to every day.
So are they curious about the halving?
Yes.
Are they able to easily understand
that the new supply is going to be falling?
Yes.
Do they know the technical impacts
related to hash rate and other mechanisms? No. But again, I think most people don't understand those, to be falling. Yes. Do they know the technical impacts related to hash rate and other mechanisms?
No.
But again,
I think most people
don't understand those
to be totally honest.
Dave?
Just one point out, guys.
The halving is a non-event
in terms of the inflation curve.
If you look at the original halvings,
it dropped Bitcoin inflation
from double digits
down to single digits.
Now we're going down to like,
who cares that the halving
goes from, you know, down to like, who cares that the halving goes from,
you know, down to like, whatever,
6.25 per block, like whatever.
No one cares.
It doesn't make a difference anymore.
It's not going to impact the float that's out there.
We've got 19.5 million Bitcoins out there already.
A small reduction in blocks
isn't going to make a difference
in terms of number of inflation or selling pressure.
What does make a difference is how much the miners are getting paid for mining blocks.
And when Bitcoin was created and you have the white paper out there, Satoshi laid this
out.
And he basically said, or they said, that you use inflation to get to the point until
the transactions in the system are big enough with enough revenue to cover the cost of mining.
And the notion that you have this inflation baked into the system was simply to allow for the system to grow, to scale, so that you could have enough revenue to cover the blocks when the halvings happen.
I don't think they ever expected at this point, we're at the tail end, the last single-digit percentage of Bitcoin coming out of the system.
We don't
have enough transaction revenue in Bitcoin right now to support a halving event.
So I'm sitting back and I've watched, I've been in this for a while, I've watched this
go from, I think, eight to nine or 10 million coins up to like 19 million coins.
And there's just not enough transaction revenue.
So this halving doesn't impact supply as much as it impacts minor revenue, especially if we look at the numbers right now and where we are.
It's pretty frothy.
If that comes down and you get another 50% chop and you get down to $20,000 per block, I think we're in trouble.
Dave?
I think that I sort of agree with what Vinny said until we get to the end.
I mean, obviously, if the price completely unravels and everything goes, yeah, OK, fine.
You could get a vicious circle, as it were.
But probably in all the charts I have ever seen, and I'm curious what Peter thinks in terms of just strength and consistency, the Bitcoin hashrate chart may be the single best.
And what matters with the
halving is the narrative. Remember, the key to Bitcoin is, will it achieve critical mass among
the average human beings on the planet Earth, billions of them, as a store of value? And if it
does, where will the price be? Where the price will be will be somewhere more than gold's market cap, which is a long way from here.
Will it happen is obviously an open question.
The market's still pricing it at less than 10% probability.
The key thing with the halving is its effect on narrative space. minor wipeouts and a declining hash rate and that chart looks horribly broken, worse than
when China banned the hash rate and which it almost was a perfect V-shaped bottom over
about a month or two.
The fact is, is that's really the key.
If on the other hand, whether it's runes or ordinals or whatever, miners with better
equipment, et cetera, the hash rate drops off a bit, miners with better equipment, etc., the hash rate drops
off a bit, market difficulty adjusts, and the hash rate continues to be up and to the
right.
That is an extraordinarily bullish thing for Bitcoin's price.
Now, obviously, what I'm saying aligns with the previous two data points that you probably
all know that I think that looking at previous halving cycles
as statistically predictive is absurd,
which is why I was laughing before
when I forgot who said it,
but it's an absurd thing.
But the reality is,
is if in fact the network absorbs the halving,
then the narrative allows,
the fact is all the people
who are buying Bitcoin now for the first time,
and there are a lot of them being put into it by financial advisors as a piece of their portfolio, will learn something.
And that's really the key here is will Bitcoin's network growth and trajectory look sticky?
And Vinny's right. If it's a disaster, that could be very, very bad.
On the other hand, the flip side of that, if it works out well, that could be very, very good. So there's a lot at stake, but it's not something that's going to
be at stake the day of the halving. It's going to play out over the months or maybe even a year
after the halving to see how it all works out.
Sure. I mean, I guess we're on similar pages here. The importance of data having is that, you know, for the first time right now, we're at a level of scale where a lot of miners can't afford to run at a loss.
So the moment you go below your cost of electricity, some of these guys are going to shut off and sell the equipment.
So it depends on the price.
I totally agree with you.
It depends on the price, and it doesn't play out immediately.
But when hash rate drops off, the adjustment period takes more time to kick in.
So it goes from 14 days to 17 days to 20 days.
Blocks start filling up.
Fees get higher.
Network gets clogged.
People lose faith in the network.
People want to sell because they're worried about this.
And my issue here is the concentration of coins in ETFs for the first time.
These are not missionaries.
These are not the guys who I was early in Bitcoin.
We got in.
We were going to buy and hold Bitcoin for years.
We had a long-term view on it.
These guys are like in for the trade.
They'll go in.
They'll go out.
They'll wait for a better spot.
You know, I just don't see the same type of buyers.
And I think that where we are right now is a very lofty price.
And I think if it comes down and we have a compounding effect, you know, some people,
they don't understand this.
They're going to get scared.
And that, you know, that fear sort of gets into the market.
I'm not a big fan of narratives because I think narratives don't really work at scale.
Liquidity works at scale.
And if you look back, no matter what the narrators were in 2021,
the moment Powell got up on stage and says,
okay, we're going to be raising rates, and everything tanked.
And the moment the market turned, when, okay, well, rates are coming down,
the dot plots were showing seven cuts this year, which I disagreed with.
And starting in March, everything started going up.
And at the same time, the Bitcoin ETF came up.
So this is a liquidity play.
And at scale, whatever narratives we have for crypto and Bitcoin
will get distorted by what happens at a macro level.
Zach, any thoughts on this? I saw you just came up.
Yeah, we were talking about this the other day.
I feel like, to Vinnie's point you know not only
is it just the etfs people have to worry about now but derivatives and futures and and everything
that's more complex than we were discussing you know last cycle has grown to be such a larger
piece of this market now and we were just chatting about funding rates and the idea. I can't remember
the exact stat, but I want to say that it was basically five times as high in terms of just
froth right now from future activity and kind of what people are seeing in that. I'm not the best
person to talk about futures necessarily, but the point stands as far as the complexity of this
market. And Devaney's point, I think so much to unwind this time around should anything look off.
And I think a lot of the having is potentially baked in when you discuss that piece of just like everyone's thinking there's going to be so much upside potential here.
And I think that, you know, as we're discussing most of it, this cycle is probably not going to be as large as last.
Joe, I saw you just came up as well.
If you want to weigh in on this, you and AJ, before kind of moving on to the next segment.
Yeah, I mean, I don't have a big opinion about the halving.
More so, you know, based on TA, we are testing a resistance level.
I honestly think we've tested it three times before, two times before,
and I think this is the last test.
I'm not so worried right here.
I kind of expected this move actually loaded back up.
So I don't know.
I just came in a little late, so i don't know if everyone's speaking more
bearish but i'm not bearish here aj same yeah no but i i did want to ask vinny real quick before
you move on uh vinny you were talking about raising rates do you think they would actually
do that between having and the election because that to me would be politically no but if you
look at if you look at the economy sorry vinny i'm you look at if you look at the economy sorry
i'm stepping in here if you look at the economy right um the economy is pretty strong there's
absolutely zero reason to lower rates on an economic basis the only reason why they would
raise rates is on a political basis because of of the election so you you kind of right there but
economically there's literally,
like if you look at the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ right now, it's in a channel that is going
parabolic. There's no way you can look at this economy and justify lowering rates. So it would
be purely based on a political standpoint. And I also want to point out that all the corrections
that we've had so far in this cycle, if you're just talking about this cycle and not the previous ones, has been more shallow than all of the rest.
So it's a very, very interesting dynamic.
I hear what Vinny is saying.
If we get bad news on a weekend, right, it could lead us to a little bit of a tricky situation with the ETFs opening, you know, 8.30 Monday morning Central Time.
So I get that.
But I'm also taking notes of the pullbacks
that have been much more shallow.
So, yeah, I am kind of leaning a little bit very short term,
but I think it's an opportunity, and I don't think that the pullback
will be as drastic as everyone thinks that they are based upon previous cycles
because it hasn't been that volatile this time. I'll just, I mean, I largely agree with you there, Wick. I will say that
my, you know, I've been on Twitter saying I think I'm the only person predicting a rate hike before
a cut. What I'm saying is, I'm not saying it's going to happen now. I'm saying before we get
a drop, we may have to go up a bit more.
Jamie Dimon is actually saying the same thing as me like yesterday.
So and the reason for this is that I think that if you look at the consensus on CPI, I think it's 3.4 for tomorrow.
If that comes in at 3.6 or 3.7 or surprise like labor like it's gonna be crazy guys like we powell is gonna be
forced to raise rates if we go anywhere near four four percent inflation again because remember
maximum employment which the labor market's proving it's very very robust and two percent
inflation that's the target now personally i think that if we want to fix this mess we have to move
the two percent inflation target to three because that two no sense. I don't think we're going to get down there any time soon. But if he keeps harping on about 2%
inflation, then he has to play by his book and raise it. Whether it's a political move or not,
it's irrelevant. It really is that you cannot get down to 2% inflation if inflation is rising right
now and rates are supposed to be restrictive. It's not restrictive enough. And so he has to
basically run the playbook. And so
you could expect some more
raid hikes before you see drops. I don't
think we're going to get any cuts this year, to be quite
honest. I just don't.
The data's not showing me that.
Happy to disagree
with anyone out there, but
we're not going to see it.
I don't disagree that hard.
It just seems like you guys are a little bit bearish in the extreme short term,
like maybe the month of the halving or maybe a couple of months after the halving.
But I'm very bullish on this entire year and just how it's kind of panning out.
But no, no, dude, I hear you.
I just, you know, I'm in the U.S.
It's really hard to see them do that right before the election.
Yeah.
Paul's a Republican. Don't forget.
I guess in name only. I don't know.
I agree with you. I agree with you. But long term, right, I think we all agree long term.
It's very bullish. And I also agree with Vinny that I wouldn't be surprised if we see a rate hike before a rate cut.
But I also don't believe that the name of the game is about rates.
I believe it's about global liquidity.
That's what I really believe it's about.
And I believe that right now we're in a little bit of a shortage of that liquidity.
And that is my whole reasoning for thinking that we get a little bit of a pullback before we extend, right?
Because in short term, liquidity is thin.
It's real thin.
As I said that, you know, they were doing stealth QE by pulling it out of that reverse repo market.
And that's flat now, right?
And then with a tax season, what you have is you have people that are pulling liquidity from financial markets that's now going to end up on the Fed balance sheet, right?
So that's my whole theory for April and why I think that we see lower prices for April. But long term,
and even midterm, you can't be anything other than bullish. I mean, we have all the baby boomers that
are retiring, and we've got obligations to give them Social Security. There's no other ways that
we can go about this other than printing more money, right, which is good for Bitcoin, bad for inflation.
So yet long-term, you can't be anything but bullish.
I think this is just a short-term hiccup that we're having
in global liquidity, in my opinion.
And I think that's the name of the game versus looking at rates,
to be honest with you.
That's my opinion.
The one thing that's worth pointing out is the short-term bond issuance
has gone, it's like spiked.
It's going through the roof right now.
And so this is the issue.
It's actually stimulatory to the economy because they're issuing very, very short-dated treasuries right now.
And the interest rate that they're paying is basically winding up as debt.
And we're seeing that in the deficits as it's widening.
But that money is going to the economy because people are buying, you know, they're buying
these notes and they're basically getting very high yielding interest.
And now they have more income.
You know, but previously, if you had millions of dollars in the bank, you had no income.
It was like, whatever, 0.25% a few years ago.
Now you're getting 5%, okay?
That makes a big difference.
And that's the problem.
That's, you know, they talk about fiscal dominance.
The U.S. is in this position right now where you know it's it these rates are actually stimulating the
economy more than they needed to but it's doing it at the cost of debt and so this is the the sort of
death spiral we keep talking about what is the break point we don't know uh and i don't think
inflation is going to go away as a result. Dave? A hundred percent.
Agreed.
Yeah.
I mean, I think that there's a lot of interesting cross currents here.
I mean, first, the notion the labor market is strong is based on headline numbers that
obscure the fact that virtually, I mean, all the jobs that have been created have been
part-time, not full-time.
And so, and Powell sees that, and God knows the politicians see it, and they understand why the
opinion polls are they are. So this notion of the labor market is incredibly strong. I mean,
you dive into the numbers, there's two data points that I always, that come out of the, you know,
Fred from St. Louis. I mean, one is exactly that part-time versus full-time
and the gap between the household survey and the, and the BLS numbers are like 3.8 million jobs or
something like that. I mean, it's very large. I've never seen it like that. And the other is
who's getting jobs. And what you're finding is most of the new jobs are not native born Americans,
but immigrants. Now I'm not making a statement. Look, I'm,
you know, I'm a grandson of immigrants. So this is not a political statement. It's just a factual
statement that when you talk about voting, it matters. And so there's a lot of pressure there.
But that said, I agree with Vinny on one point for sure, which I don't think there's a snowball's
chance in hell that they can cut rates without something in the markets breaking. Now, whether it's the S&P going down, like Mike McGlone will talk about, or it's a banking crisis because of
commercial real estate or some other broken law in the system, I don't believe there's a chance
of a rate cut. So we're going to be navigating this kind of, you know, stasis where to raise
rates would invite, you know, forget Powell being a Republican.
I mean, the pressure would be unbelievable. I mean, if you think Elizabeth Warren yells now,
just imagine she's already been yelling they should cut rates. So, you know, it is we are
in a politicized environment and we do have a two tiered market. But the most important point,
and Vinny said it just a few seconds ago, is fiscal dominance.
With every hundred days adding a trillion to the deficit, that is enormously stimulative to liquidity, not necessarily to the overall economy, because the government sucks out, is nowhere near as efficient at generating real jobs and real productive growth as the private sector.
But it does put more money into people's hands for all the reasons that Vin he was talking about. And I think that that's really what matters here. And let's never forget that there is a
difference between Bitcoin and the rest of crypto in one sense. Bitcoin, people who are buying it
are buying it as a hedge against the, I like Peter's words, unraveling of the fiat experiment.
So we'll give credit where credit is due. You said it earlier. That use case is clearly manifesting. And there are more people hearing about it,
you know, more searches on Austrian economics, you know, more people looking at even the Mises
Institute. But forget that. You're getting RIAs and FAs talking about, you know, you should have
part of your money in this as a hedge. And that's why I just don't get excited. I didn't get excited
this weekend when Bitcoin rallied to the top of its recent trading range. And that's why I just don't get excited. I didn't get excited this
weekend when Bitcoin rallied to the top of its recent trading range. And I'm not excited now
when it's going back toward the bottom of its recent trading range. We're in a range and we're
in a range because there are buyers at certain levels and there just aren't a lot of, you know,
and there are people who are playing the swing trades who are playing the range.
If it breaks out of the range either way, then we'll see.
But I don't see any reason for that to happen for the short term.
And just to wrap up that segment, there's a question here from a regular panelist, Mike, who put it in the comments.
He said, just ask the panel just one simple question.
What would they expect Bitcoin to be at in December?
I know it's a speculative question, kind of simplifying discussion. But maybe maybe Dave, you can kick it off what you expect to see in December.
I mean, I still, I don't know where it will be in December. I expect to see that at some point
between now and December, we will break into six figures. I do think that will happen. I don't
think that it is markets exist to humble us. I don't believe that anyone who can think that they can predict the exact trajectory. I mean, God bless. I certainly can't. I just think that there is more upside. There's more risk of an upside than there is risk to the downside at this point between now and December and the year after that.
Zach? the downside at this point between now and december and the year after that zach yeah i would agree with that i mean we've had a number of people who have nailed you know not
just the last cycle but the cycle before it come on uh with me on coinage and talk about their
price targets obviously shout out to fun strat for for their research normally being spot on they
have 125 000 price target for the end of the year.
And, you know, we've pulled our community, they're sitting north of 90 as well. So they'd
agree with Dave. I'd probably put myself in the same camp. You know, we've talked so much on this
chat about macroeconomics and obviously the Fed, which does matter. I think one element that I'm
kind of looking at right now is more attached to ETH and obviously, you know, probably not in
the camp that we're going to get it in May, the ETH ETF. But aside from that, there's a lot of
projects that people are saying are almost as basically frothy as we saw with Terra in terms
of structure to start bringing, you know, ETH exposure back into the space with ETH restaking.
They could potentially, and I'm not saying, you know, boom bus cycles back into the space with ETH restaking, that could potentially, and I'm not
saying, you know, boom-bust cycles are anyone's favorite, but it does introduce volatility and,
I think, potential runs. We haven't necessarily seen, like, a blow-up, the top run yet this cycle.
And, you know, it doesn't take much to start to approach 90. And I'd agree with Dave. There's
no way that anyone can say, oh, this is going to happen exactly to where in December we'll be at 90.
But I would say that there is definitely a blow-off-the-top rally potential here.
If you start getting some of that speculation back in a loop form that we saw with Terra,
this cycle and some of the ETH projects they're introducing, liquid restaking.
Fini?
I'll take the contrarian view here.
I think we could go through a bubble-bust cycle, hit 100K, come back down.
I'd say if you ask me end of the year, I'm going to be in the 20 to 30K range.
I think we'll be halfway right now.
Yeah.
So I'll take the contrarian view.
But would you say that's more likely than continuing all-time highs?
Do you expect the boom-pass cycle to be that quick?
Yeah, I think after the presidential election, after things play out, after this year plays out, liquidity crises, whatever else, we also may get some government pushback globally on Bitcoin. Because if Bitcoin, for some reason,
gets up to 100, 120, 150, even 200K in this year, it will suck so much money out of the global
financial system. It will cause, basically, look, if Bitcoin starts to act as a substitute for
government debt, which they have to keep printing, and people start flowing their money into Bitcoin,
it's going to be a threat, a national threat to most governments.
They're going to act.
And if they act accordingly and start banning it and blocking it and whatever else, you
know, the US government's already, I saw an article yesterday, they're already asking
people to go to El Salvador and come back.
Are you bringing Bitcoin into the country?
Legal or not, I don't know whether it is, but they're doing it, right?
There's reporting on it.
So you can expect...
Should I say that again? Where are they asking that question?
At customs, they're asking people if they're bringing Bitcoin back in the country from El Salvador.
Such a weird question to ask.
Yeah, immigration questions.
So what I'm saying, guys, is if we're theoretically right about Bitcoin and it is the lifeboat from government debt printing,
do you think governments who have got all this, you know, most powerful armies in the world are going to ignore what's basically taking money away from them to fund all this?
And if Bitcoin becomes successful, it will become a victim of its own success because it's run, it's a very centralized system in the sense that it runs through exchanges that all have licenses.
You have ETFs.
They just say, OK, we're going to cap it.
You can only have X amount of Bitcoin or whatever it is.
Or they basically stop trading it.
It sounds crazy, but a lot can happen between now and the end of the year.
We have a potential war with China and Taiwan.
We have wars happening in, and by the way, wars are very inflationary because you're not really paying for value.
You're just paying for boots on the ground.
You're going to war.
Historically, it's a very inflationary activity.
And so the governments have to finance this debt somehow.
And if you give people a lifeboat and it's Bitcoin, trust me, they're going to put the guardrails up.
I'll take the other side of this and look, probably won't happen. But I'll say we're
probably going to go down from here if things play out the way, you know, any of the risks
that are on the horizon actually come to bear. I have to say something, Mario, because, you know,
it's funny. You know, I've been hearing this narrative the whole time, and I understand why people think it.
But you need to look at the way the government has handled gold.
And effectively, yes, you could say that they've suppressed gold prices.
Believe me, I've seen the theories of suppression of gold price.
At the current market cap of Bitcoin, it is something that we care about.
But believe me, they don't.
I mean, Alan Greenspan famously and Powell actually said it and Yellen said it and pretty much every Fed and Bernanke
said it, you know, at a market cap in the double digit trillions like gold, it's not enough to
matter to them in terms of stopping their money printing or stopping it. I mean, it may be a
lightboat to a few select people who are smart enough. If Bitcoin, on the other hand, we're trading at $1 million, $2 million, $3 million per coin,
yeah, at that point, maybe Vinny, you're right. But we have a long way to go. We're not even close
to where gold is. And they've already kind of gotten to the point of like, yeah, we got paper,
gold, et cetera. And don't discount the Larry Fink effect and the Fidelity effect and the power
battles that are going on,
because there's a lot of pretty important people who are saying, yeah, you know, this is OK.
But you're right. I mean, you know, you get to $10 million per Bitcoin. Yeah, I think the
government will take notice and something will happen. But there's a long way to go before we
get there. Yeah, Dave, I agree with you. But I think I think you're mis-sizing it because
you don't personally, I think you're comparing atoms with electrons, right?
The velocity of money into Bitcoin is way faster than into gold because you have to move the atoms in gold, and electrons, you don't have to move it, right?
So don't look at it in terms of comparison of market cap.
Look at comparison of velocity of money going – and money is all digital now as well.
So Bitcoin poses a much bigger threat,
even a couple of hundred thousand dollars,
than gold does.
And in the 1933 Confiscation Act,
they confiscated gold.
And that was literally years before we went to,
we went, you know, at World War II.
I'm not saying necessarily the US government.
There are governments around the world.
Remember, the entire world is sitting
at a 370% debt toto-GDP ratio right now.
Governments cannot finance their debts.
If the U.S. has to raise rates by another quarter point, half a point, you're going to see carnage.
And if people are going to flee into Bitcoin in these foreign governments and foreign countries, these countries will ban it.
And they can do it very quickly.
And that will have maybe a small impact one by one, but it will have an impact on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is a liquidity coin, if you think about it.
It's just basically a place to move money in and out of.
And so if it drains the market of liquidity, and we've seen this with the rates going up
and down, if it drains the market of liquidity at enough of a scale, governments, not just the
U.S., but other governments will clamp down on it before it even gets to a million dollars.
Yeah, I just want to make two quick points. First, the 33. 33 was theft. We all understand
it was theft, but it was done for a reason. The U.S. government wanted to reflate. That was a
one-time inflation to get over deficit problem. And by moving gold from 20
to 35, 74, whatever the fuck it was, they basically stole gold at one price and moved it up by two
thirds. OK, great. That was theft. There's no point in confiscating Bitcoin and revaluing it.
That's a non sequitur. So that analogy is problematic. And in terms of being a
liquidity coin, compare the size of all of crypto to the interest rate swap market or the repo
market. I mean, it's not even a percent of a percent. And that's maybe that's an overstatement.
It probably is about a percent of a percent. It is really small. And that's really the point.
Now, you're right.
At some point, it could happen.
And God knows countries will try it.
We've seen capital controls throughout the world many, many times.
They've never really ended very well.
But companies do try it.
So we'll leave it there.
I think that there is a possibility.
But it's interesting.
There's easy to see some banning actually being bullish
people saying ah you see this is why we should own it so it really depends who and how
i'll take a uh a shot at that uh december guide wake up yeah last thing last thing i'll say here
looking at ism and things like of that nature i think that december i'm going to take a shot at
it i think that will it would be really really ironic if we were right at that 100k mark kind of testing that region there.
And I'll also say this, I think that two of the two of the narratives that I'm watching here
with this liquidity is regional banks. Like right now, I just made a post to my Twitter
that the New York Community Bank, if you look at that one, that's one that's currently having
liquidity issues. Now, big banks will do okay, Things like Bank of America, JP Morgan will do good. But these
regional banks, I think they're really in trouble if we go through another liquidity crunch. So I
think that could be a reason why we see more printing this year, possibly. I'm also watching
the narrative of war. I do think that we're in a Cold War at the moment. And I do think if that escalates at all, I do think that could be another catalyst for Bitcoin this year.
So I'm going to go with 100K at December time.
And Simon, last question before we wrap up this segment and move to an interesting discussion that no one expects.
Simon, you got two points.
Obviously, the discussion, the back and forth about governments banning Bitcoin, which I'm sure this is why you came up, but also getting quick prediction, which I know you hate making for where you see Bitcoin in December.
Yeah, I was going to say, I think Vinny kind of over underestimates the opportunistic nature of Bitcoin for sovereign countries and central banks. If it's just a threat to one
central bank, it's an opportunity for another central bank. If it's a threat for one country,
it's an opportunity for another country. And so to think that all governments would globally
coordinate to ban Bitcoin has kind of been a bit of a boogie monster that I just think will create...
I didn't say that. I did not say that.
I said that governments, not all, not the US necessarily,
but they will ban it, just to be clear.
Yes, and that country, just like, you know,
it will go down in history as a really bad move for that country,
and it will be known for that.
And another country will just see it as an opportunity
to soak up all the business.
Just like when, you know when all of the exchange business went to Japan from China
and then all the miners went from China to America.
I think the game theory will just play out where you don't get a 20-day Bitcoin
based upon a government ban because I think it would just be a geopolitical
and amazing opportunity for
someone to back their CBDC by a bit of Bitcoin or something. I think that's the black swan event
that we've talked about and we've discussed even the bear market me Ryan and Scott had a pretty
heated debate about it and you know Simon Ryan kind of final question before we move on where
you see Bitcoin by December Simon since you came up on stage you have to give an answer unfortunately
and then we'll go to Ryan. Mario you're always asking me to do I'm just going to say six figures where you see Bitcoin by December, Simon, since you came up on stage, you have to give an answer, unfortunately.
And then we'll go to Ryan.
Mario, you're always asking me to do.
I'm just going to say six figures.
Ah, cool. I'll take that.
Ryan?
Yeah, I think low six figures, I would say somewhere between 110, 125.
Nice. And lastly, Joe,
because Joe, you'll be helping move to the next segment.
Yeah, I think we're playing around 100 uh i don't know
if we reach it yet but maybe we bounced off it somewhere around there oh cool everyone's going
to six figures except vinnie who kind of play is playing devil's advocate well i think it's a great
discussion what we're going to do now is we're going to have our first um so so joe i appreciate
coming in just emptied the panel um our first uh meme coin ama so we've done a lot of amas here
and uh we've got the we're gonna start doing meme because i think we're doing another one next week
and that was uh you know guys uh quack you came in last minute i reached out to some of our team
members or i think the team members reached out to you and you guys i think are listing soon so i
was reading up on you literally as the space was ongoing, just kind of prepare for this.
And it's going to be an interesting back and forth.
It'd be good if Scott was there,
but unfortunately he won't be able to make it since he's in Paris right now,
the Paris blockchain week.
But guys at Quack,
who's behind,
I think the founder is Dox,
which is already a good indicator.
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the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the uh picture how you doing mate um my name is christian uh christian clayton um i'm one of the
co-founders of quack good to meet you where are you located or is that too much to ask
no of course i'm docs i'm docs you can ask me anything um based on wow okay cool that's that's
i'm not i'm not used to that i'm not used to that when it comes to MemeCoin. Oh, please, 100%. There's nothing that I won't answer.
My mantra is being transparent and answering any questions.
But before I start, if you don't mind, Mario,
I want to first of all say thank you very much for inviting us.
And being the first MemeCoin on here is absolutely amazing.
But I just want to take one second, 10 seconds at everyone's time,
to just listen to this small segment.
That was District 5.
Now we're the Ducks.
Ducks are undefeated.
All right!
Quack, quack, quack.
Are you sure?
Quack, quack, quack.
Quack, qu more about quack
so you guys are so we're we're already working or invested in a obviously a dog we're invested in
a in a frog we're invested in a um and i think a couple of other animals and now we've got a duck
on our uh on our cap table um we're in our portfolio go ahead so tell me more about quack
and what you guys are doing your docs which kind of gives me peace of mind to be able to have this
discussion and what you're building perfect so yeah welcome to doc season doc season as officially arrived
so um a bit about me backstories so christian clayton i've been in crypto for a long time
10 years now it's actually my third um cycle uh first cycle got absolutely wrecked as we all did
probably on the first one. Second is very successful.
And this third one now is more about giving back.
I want to build a meme coin from the people for the people.
Because my actual background on this cycle is I have a marketing agency for crypto.
So I feel like with my leadership skills skills marketing skills um business skills because i
already have web 2 successful businesses i feel like this space needs somebody that's docs that
can put his face out there that feels comfortable because he believes in the vision and he believes
in what he's doing and quack is not a meme coin quackack is a movement. Okay, so I've got a couple of questions.
So every meme coin say they're a movement.
I was very, so the first meme coin I had on my stage,
which is one of the bigger ones.
Okay.
Shiba Saga.
So that was the first meme coin that we had on our space.
And I wasn't used to the whole concept.
And when they came on, they had sentiment, and they had a storyline, and he did the audio to the whole concept. And when they came on you, they had sentiment and, you know,
they had a storyline and you did that audio with the quack sounds.
So that kind of caught me by surprise because I'm not in that ecosystem.
Obviously, Ryan kind of moved me to become more comfortable in that world.
When you say – so I've got two questions for you.
Where do you see – so what's your goal?
Because you've doxed yourself.
You've got a business,
you've got a marketing agency, and you come out as a public figure,
which is unusual in the meme coin world.
What are your concerns and where do you see this heading?
Moving away from the whole, this is a movement,
or moving away from the whole quack story.
What is your strategy to kind of grow this into a bigger meme coin a bigger community so being in this kind of space for like many years you know we all know
there is certain fundamentals obviously on a macro there's many things but a micro a really
quacking community and good leadership and as you guys know if you guys invested in
Mincoins, you need good narratives and you
need good art.
Our PFP, our art
is really, really good. This is our hand
drawn art from our artist
that's been doing it since he was 8 years old.
So I believe what we're
different to every other Mincoin is that
transparency as well and being
docs and I'm the type of person as a leader i can move this um project forward and i don't just see it as a
mean coin like i said i'm just i'm just talking about movement i'm talking about business like
i want to bring my business skills into the mean coin world so i can go from stages i can push this
movement forward i can connect with people like yourselves
and other big leaders in this space
and not just hiding behind a PFP
or not just hiding behind being anonymous,
putting myself out there
and help to onboard as many new people to crypto as possible
because crypto has changed my life.
And if you heard by the anthem that I that we just um i just played then that
is mitodox and the story behind that is they was the underdogs let's call them the underdogs
they started with nothing and that and then they end up winning the league okay from a vision
from help from support and exactly how quack was formed from a small circle.
And now we're on a stage like this now.
But you listed on base as well.
Sorry, Joe, I'll give you the mic.
I was going to ask a few questions.
I was just talking to someone yesterday,
kind of thinking about the base ecosystem.
I was talking to someone yesterday who leads our meme coin division,
and he told me something i was
surprised about he's like mario solano is actually slowing significantly especially with the the
congestion on their on their blockchain and a lot of that momentum is now moving to to base um so
the question i have for you is why did you guys list on base maybe more of an ecosystem kind of
overview on on the base ecosystem we're working with a few projects, including a really large one on the base blockchain.
Yeah, just by being a visionary and being steps ahead of the herd,
I just believe that base chain
will be the number one chain
of this cycle.
You know,
Binance Smart Chain was the last one
in this kind of mean coin space,
low cap coins.
And I just feel like
that's where the volume's gone towards, you know?
And we want to be where the volume is going.
We don't want to chase the volume.
So I feel like we set ourselves up strategically to be where the masses are going to be.
Okay.
Joe, I'm going to go to you with a question.
But let me ask one more question.
So there's another project we work with.
It's a dog.
And it did really well. Now, I that project i'm doing a few shows together i know the founder well they lead they run one of the biggest incubators in crypto i've
talked about them and you know they work with really top-tier projects they work with some of
the biggest launch they have a launch pad as well so very and one of my ex-employees works there as
well so it's a very solid team, very legitimate team.
They launched a meme coin.
They did extremely well.
And I started speaking to them,
and they kind of warmed me up to the whole ecosystem.
Like, what's the strategy?
They said the number one thing that works,
obviously narrative, art is good,
but narrative plays a big part.
Like the right narrative at the right time just gains traction, which is so difficult to measure.
And then the second one is KOLs.
So KOLs have been
one of the most effective strategies in the meme coin world have you guys are you guys leveraging
chaos as a part of your marketing strategy since you run i'm kind of digging into your marketing
strategy since you're on a marketing agency yeah no problem great questions i just want to break
down what you said so narratives 100 helps and narrative is, it's a project from the people to the people. Like I'm an investor myself. Right. So we have like a great narrative and build great foundations and becoming the number one mean coin on base chain, where it's a kind of like a blue ocean right now for great projects right it's not like solana where it's obviously
they've got loads of projects but you know good projects can stand up very easy on there so we
take that narrative all right calls 100 like i said guys you know i had a market i got a marketing
agency um more kind of like medium tier calls But I always believe when you kind of lead with a good vision and you're very transparent, doors will open.
And we've had some amazing people in the back that has helped move some big, big projects.
And also some people in the front.
So, yes, we've got many KOLs at the moment.
Great narrative.
But also, we can't forget the main thing, Mario, because we can do all that, but if we haven't got the community, it means nothing.
And that's what I'm leading by.
Like we just go into like the technicals of it, guys.
We did a pre-sale and we did $2 million, okay, in the pre-sale.
How long did it take you to raise $2 million, okay, in the pre-sale. How long did it take you to raise $2 million?
Four days.
This is fascinating.
The numbers that meme coins are raising is insane.
There's a project that raised $250 million.
So there's the other concern of meme coins ending up like just a pump and dump scheme.
It's one thing a meme coin just fails.
There's two things. A meme coin failing is a project failing i'm very comfortable with
that a pump and up or a rug pull is what concerns me obviously looking at the basics um you know
just looking at the founding team looking at there was a contract revoked etc
these are basic indicators um you know is there wallets that kind of was it sniped at launch if
it's a fair launch so it's about some basic indicators see if a meme coin has a high likelihood
of being rugged can you maybe share some of those indicators to kind of give the audience um when
you listen as a piece of mind i know the team's already checked those but it'd be good to get you
to yeah definitely so remember mary we launched today actually guys so we launched today at 10
p.m uk UK time, right?
So going back to what you said about, like,
pump and dumps and stuff like this,
it's kind of impossible when you put your name on something
because, you know, end of the day, guys,
we've got to understand that, you know,
there's certain legalities in this industry.
I know it's a bit of the wild, wild west,
but when you've got somebody that's business and reputation is connected to this project, his face, let's be real, his freedom.
Like, I can't do anything wrong and I wouldn't do anything wrong because, for one, you know, I'm here to, you know, move this forward for the community.
But also, I don't want to go to jail. Do you know what I mean? So every single thing that I do is very calculated
because my face is all over it.
I'm doxxed.
Has the liquidity, just the basics as well,
has the liquidity pool been locked as well
and the contract revoked?
Oh, Mario, we launched tomorrow.
Today, brother.
We haven't launched yet.
Oh, you haven't launched yet.
Oh, shit, shit.
Cool, man, cool.
Will the liquidity pool
be locked
will the contract be revoked
um
the liquidity
we are doing a
um
we're putting it in slowly
we don't want to put
because if you look
talk about like
what's happening with the
money raised
we put in 1 million liquidity
but we're going to put it
stagnantly
we don't want to put it all in
um
just because we don't want
to start with a
really high market cap.
This is just something known in the meme coin space.
It's completely different to any of the high cap coins.
So, yes, it will be a lot and we will be potentially burning.
But also the beautiful thing is, I need to come to as well, is when people raise this kind of money for these meme coins,
they always keep
a percentage of the raise to the team i'm okay i'm good my reputation is on this line so me making
six figures even seven figures at this project it's irrelevant to me so the whole risk of a
million dollars is going straight in marketing and as we all know guys it's about the kols and they're not free and marketing
and making noise and as a marketer i understand how to make noise um but but also going back to
locking liquidity and all that things that will happen but end of the day i'm doxed if i if any
liquidity i would go to jail two million dollars ten million
dollars ten billion dollars I've got wife beautiful kids 38 years old businessman family man no thank
you so um I feel like the community kind of already understands that there's no issues with
this with any things like that how are you how how much of the percentage is going to
the team out of the contract just because a lot of the fair launches um you know they don't like
when there's a big team allocation yeah definitely there will be a small portion towards team and
marketing but it's not going to be nothing on towards like i said i'm
an investor just like anybody on this panel and every move that i make is going to be um more
towards the investor side so it's something that work we can discuss with like the my business
partners when it comes to like that kind of stuff i live to you know smart guys the brains the
technical side of that stuff is my business partners me more marketing and being a leader and uh being a visionary but
yeah that will be all disclosed uh before launch but everyone will be happy with it because there
have to be because i mean it would have the token numbers will be for the people because the whole
mission of what i'm building is for the people.
So they will be happy with it because it was them in mind.
But like I said, I don't really, I'm not in it for the money.
Don't get wrong when it gets to a billion dollar market cap.
Hell yeah, I'm in it for the money.
Up to then, I'm okay.
I want to put every single penny back into building this meme coin as a number one meme coin on base chain.
I believe in myself.
I believe in my team.
And I believe in the community and everything that we've built so far to make that happen.
Great question, Joey.
Go ahead.
Jump in.
You've had your hand up, Nick.
Hey, how's it going? So I guess my question kind of prelays off the discussion you just had is, is the token economics going to be transparent and disclosed before launch.
But yeah, going back to that $2 million, like I said,
half of it's gone to marketing and half of it's gone to liquidity.
Even the team hasn't took a penny out of that.
And that was more from my leadership, as in, guys, this is not my name.
I'd rather put money back in, every penny back in, into marketing, because we know it's about KOLs and marketing and budget for the project to succeed.
Because that's my only agenda right now is project to succeed.
Thank you very much.
I guess I let AJ or Mario go.
To base network as a whole, I think base still has more legs. And I think the reason for that
is the Solana seems to keep going down and it's more kind of gate kept or you got to get new
wallets versus base. Everybody who has MetaMask wallet can easily bridge over to base. Ethereum
use that as the transaction fees and start playing around in the base chain. And also,
it's kind of funny last cycle, everybody kind of hated on Coinbase, but now it's kind of come back
to being the darling with the stock price going up so much.
And they're going to be integrating and launching ease of access for these new retail users who sign up at Coinbase to integrate into DeFi.
And that DeFi is going to be on base chain.
So that's why I think you have legs here in this cycle.
And that's why I think launching on base isn't just a short term thing.
I think it will sustain the cycle.
So good choice on choosing base chain thank
you very much nick thankfully good question go ahead aj i agree with that comment there nick go
ahead adrian oh um a couple of thoughts and then a question to you quack uh first i want everybody
to know i'm very bullish on base uh base chain and i've been you know when everyone was doing
the solana pre-sales i was like base chain base know, when everyone was doing the Solana pre-sales, I was like base chain,
base chain. I didn't even touch the Solana pre-sales. Um,
I did read your website a little bit.
It does show you have a pre-sale going and I'll ask you about that. But, um,
my bullish case for base and what's happening there,
there's very few top memes that are going on right now. We,
we obviously know Brett, uh,
they're the first ones to reach out
and almost touch a billion. But to say you're going to be the top meme on base, what I see
when it comes to the narrative, I love that you're doxed. You sound very genuine. You sound like a
nice, solid, legit person. The color, your branding is blue. Okay.
I see what you did with that. You have that going for you. You're a duck.
You're not a cat. You're not a dog. You're not a frog.
You're not biting off a Pepe. You're not riding on Pepe's back.
So I see a lot of positives there, but to say, first,
you're going to be the number one meme on base.
I know the number one meme on base. I'm a huge holder of it.
And I see what they're
doing uh i'm heavily invested into base but i will give you a shout out you are um definitely
like genuine in my book from what i see now but dude pre-sales you know i have a bad taste in
our mouth because you know not not a lot of pre-sales actually do very well they usually
pump up and then they go straight down so why is your pre-sales actually do very well. They usually pump up and then they go straight down. So why is your pre-sale different?
Oh,
absolutely.
Fantastic question,
my brother.
Thank you very much.
And thank you for your nice words.
I really appreciate that.
Um,
many reason why it's different.
Uh,
my friend,
the first one I would say is as we all know,
guys,
you know,
everybody's,
most people are here for the money,
right?
Let's be real.
Okay.
Most of these people,
they do pre-sales.
They want to make money and they want to put in the back pocket, be real, okay? Most of these people, they do pre-sales,
they want to make money,
and they want to put in the back pocket a lot of money.
Most of them are not docs,
so they've got nothing to lose.
When you've got a million dollars to spend on marketing,
you're going to get a lot of buying pressure.
I think we can all agree with that, right?
So that is one thing that we can mitigate,
the pre-sale, all right?
Then also, guys, I want to go like deep into like the psychological you know impact on having a docs founder remember the charts as we know guys
guys you guys are way smarter than me i see you guys are you speaking about bitcoin and the
economics and and stuff like this but i have got good common sense. And I genuinely believe when that charts move off emotions, right?
But when you've got a docs founder that's doing live face AMAs,
voice notes,
and some video timing and getting that and having that belief,
I genuinely,
obviously you're going to have to sell off.
People are going to take profits,
but I genuinely believe we're building a culture.
We're building a movement. So people are in it for the. But I genuinely believe we're building a culture, we're building a movement
so people are in it for the long run.
And remember the pre-sale, my friend,
is a lot of friends and families.
Friends and families and people who knew me
from my reputation on the last bull cycle.
And I believe that we have the vision of,
you know, the longer vision.
Your vibratory tribe, right?
Everybody that invested in that producer,
I generally believe 90% of them is my tribe.
And my tribe are holders, all right?
Going back to being the number one
mean coin on base,
I generally believe we can
because I believe why can't we?
That's all.
That's what I would say.
Why can't I? why can't we that's all that's what I would say why can't I
I have the business um understanding I have the understanding of marketing I have the understanding
of a movement all right of being a leader and leading by example and leading with love and
leading with passion and in my mind having the right people on board can I do it right now by
myself no can I do it with my team that i
got now probably not but i know there's going to be more people added to the team adding to the
roster to making this become the number one coin totally agree we're nowhere there yet
aj i'd go i'd go like guys i think we could do a separate meme coin space because I've just got so many questions.
It's just so different, AJ, looking at startups.
Obviously, we invest in on a daily basis.
And meme coins that we just got started getting into about a month or two months ago.
But similar to you, AJ, we're heavily vested in the biggest meme coin on base.
And so, actually, AJ, I've got a question for you.
Like, what would it take to be number one
like i think timing of it the narrative but the timing just plays such a key role the questions
for you age i kind of found a question to wrap up the space timing plays such a key role and it just
like it was funny so if you got the right narrative at the right time and just tick the basic boxes
um which includes in recently he's been including a lot of fair launches they've been doing it better
than pre-sales kind of pre-sales have lost a bit of traction in the last few days or weeks um but
it just feels like nothing else than matters when you've just got the right narrative and that also
applies outside of meme coins like i remember during the metaverse hype every metaverse project
that had the basics tick that launched early the first pumped they did extremely well i won't name
any but i'm sure any investors at VCs
and the audience know who those are.
Yeah, your thoughts on that, AJ?
Yeah, no, I mean, there's a few things.
When it comes to base, the first mover was Brett.
So I just think they just kind of got there,
hit a couple of weeks ago, a month ago,
and just rocket ship and they're still moving and they're still,
they're going every single day.
And I think there's also plenty of room on base. That's the thing.
So that's why I was trying to make a point to quack. I mean, right now,
what do we have? We have, what has the biggest traction?
We have obviously Brett and then MFR, right? So the MFR coin,
which is a NST originally a couple of years ago that has an extremely strong community, Sartoshi decided to drop it on base.
And so it's just, yeah.
So how I see what's going on with base is a couple of things.
It's the users, it's the potential airdrop or the speculation of one, even if they don't do it, of base.
The users, the 100 million plus users that Coinbase can come on.
And also just where do you fit in the narrative? Right now it's the whole Pepe thing.
And another thing that Brett is doing is they're not biting off of Pepe.
We're Pepe's friend, but we're not messing with it.
A lot of people are trying to ride or like how they were riding Shiba,
like how they're riding Doge. So if Quack finds, if you find your lane Quack, I think you could be,
you know, maybe a top 10. You know, that's kind of where I'm at. Maybe a top 20. I don't know,
but there's plenty of room on base. And then how do you make magic, Mario? Memes affect culture.
Memes affect people. means make make people feel a
certain way we were talking to charles hoskinson the other night and he's like what's going on
with these memes he wants to see a meme blow up on cardona you know one day uh but he's like how
do i do it he's too smart for his own good and we're like it's simple bro it makes people feel
a certain way and And so, yeah.
So that's my thought.
I think there's plenty of room.
Love him or hate him.
Yeah, no, no, no.
Love him or hate him.
I mean, because they're kind of leading the current pool run.
I'd put him ahead of AI and ahead of gaming,
which we're heavily investing in.
So anyway, look, Quack, guys,
hopefully you could end up being another big animal in the zoo
of animals in the meme coin world.
And I'm glad that you're doxxed.
Hopefully the launch goes well.
And yeah, man, congratulations on what you've built so far and the raise you've done so far and on choosing base chain as well.
So yeah, appreciate you coming on.
Appreciate everyone else coming on.
We'll see you again tomorrow about the same time as always.
And have a wonderful day.
Bye, everyone.